Andy & Ari On3 - Can Sherrone Moore get Michigan BACK TO WORK against Washington?

Episode Date: October 16, 2025

It's a Dear Andy & Ari episode, but Andy starts off this episode with a question regarding Sherrone Moore and the Michigan Wolverines before this weekend. As the Washington Huskies travel to Ann Arbor for a rematch of the 2024 National Championship, Jedd Fisch is looking to knock off the Wolverines. Watch here as Andy & Ari evaluate the state of things in Ann Arbor surrounding the Michigan football program. (0:00) On Today’s Episode(1:03) BetMGM(3:21) Intro: Washington at Michigan(4:45) Sherrone Moore’s Blue Collar Jacket(15:38) The internet & Sherrone Moore’s Outfits(21:54) Modelo(22:45) Previewing John Ewing(23:25) John Ewing: LSU-Vanderbilt(25:16) Georgia Tech-Duke(26:37) Ole Miss-Georgia(28:50) Tennessee-Alabama(30:38) USC-Notre Dame(36:45) PaniniAmerica.net(40:13) Dear Andy & Ari: SEC Race?(46:29) Moneyball in Transfer Portal/NIL era?(57:37) Tier 2 coach making the jump make sense?(1:07:45) Mike Elko mentioned for Penn State?(1:15:42) What’s going on at the On3 office?(1:23:45) Conclusion: See you Saturday night! Next, John Ewing from BetMGM joins to give us his best picks of the week 8 slate in college football. Do you agree with John? What's your pick of the week? Afterwards, we get into your Dear Andy & Ari questions, and the listeners have some GREAT questions... How will the SEC race play out?Moneyball in this era of college football?Tier 2 coaches making the jump?Why hasn't Mike Elko been mentioned for the Penn State opening? To close, Andy & Ari take a look into the On3 office and what in the world is going on with the microwave debacle. Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also sponsored by Modelo! Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut Butter and jelly. Macaroni andcheese. Modelo and college football. If you’re watching this, it means you live and breathe football. All season long. You know what that makes you? A Full-Time Fan. Which means you deserve a Modelo. Because football wouldn’t be the same without you. Modelo is the official beer sponsor of The College Football Playoff. We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/28TLoDD2Mp0 Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on three, it is a dear Andy, dear Ari show. Your questions guide the show, although we're going to lead with a question for me that's just been bothering me all day. What the heck's going to happen in this Washington, Michigan game? How big of a deal is it if Washington beats Michigan? Where does the Michigan fan base stand on Sharon Moore coming out of that USC loss? How badly does he need to win this game? That'll be my dear Ari question.

Then we've got John Ewing, Insights Manager from BetMGM, to talk about some of the biggest matchups this week. He'll talk about Ole Miss and Georgia. We'll talk about Tennessee, Alabama. LSU Vandy, which is a fascinating game. Georgia Tech Duke is another really interesting one. Of course, USC and Notre Dame. Plus, questions about the SEC race, about the coaching carousel.

And one really weird thing happened at the on three. offices today. We'll talk about it all on A&A on three, presented by BetMGM. We are presented by BetMGM. We'll be using BetMGM lines and totals all season long. If you have not signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB. That CFB is in college football and you'll get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how that works. One, download the BetMGM app and sign up. using the bonus code CFB. Two, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.

Three, you receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. And if you've already signed up, got some goodies for you this week, too. On Friday, October 17th and Saturday, October 18th, we have a college football parley boost token and a college football odds boost token. So the parlay boost token, get in the game, you level up your next parlay by using that parlay boost token to boost your potential payout from a winning college football parlay. Or if you want to go even simpler, the odds boost token, zero in every snap and activate your odds boost token on any college football bet, and you will receive a bigger payout if your bet wins. So if you've already signed up for bed MGM, got those for you on Friday and Saturday.

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Call 8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y in 4673-69 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. call 1-800-327-50-50 in Massachusetts, call 1-800 bets off in Iowa or 1-800-9-81-00-23 in Puerto Rico. First-Bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BedMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on three, I bet MGM is a dear Andy, dear Ari day.

And there's Ari, and I'm Andy. And I actually want to ask my own question today. And I realize the viewers and listeners provide the better questions. But I've had one that has been bothering me all day. And it really started for me Monday. If we want to go back, can I play you a piece of video, Ari, before I ask my question? Sure. I would love to hear it and see it.

Okay, so Sharon Moore showed up for his press conference and he was wearing a particular piece of clothing and he actually explained why in an answer to a question. So this is Michigan coach Sharon Moore talking about the game against Washington. Here he is. Is there a bigger message from you to this team going into the back half of this season?

I mean, I think the message is pretty simple. Like, the guys understand what happen. They understand it's a loss and nobody's hurt more for a loss than the players and us, you know, as coaches. So those guys are, they've been in here. They've been grinding, trying to get better. They're, you know, trying to fix all the problems and make sure we, it doesn't happen again.

So the message really is simple. We got to go back to work. You know, that's a reason I got the blue collar jacket on the day. It's, we got to go back to work right now. There's, there's no pouting. There's no. So he's wearing the blue collar jacket. And for those who don't know, it's not that Sharon Moore was an apprentice HVAC tech.

when he was in college, they have these jackets. It goes back to the Jim Harbour era where he would make these jackets for the whole team and the staff for road trips. And so everybody, I believe, was second road trip of the year, Clayton Safey from the Wolverine explained the whole process to me. They would get this jacket. It was part of your part of being a part of the Michigan program. And so he said, you know, blue collar jacket back to work. The internet went crazy with this. talk about that in a second. Let me, let me hit you with my dear Ari question, Ari.

What happens at Michigan if they lose this game? Because the fan base was pretty lukewarm on Sharon Moore before the USC game. They came out of it really displeased, though I was trolling the Michigan message board, the fort on the on the Wolverine. and it does seem like they're not as reactionary as some of the other boards that we've talked about this week. It's not like if he loses this game, he's fired, but there is legitimate concern that if he loses this game, you're maybe looking at another seven and five type season. Yeah, I mean, that's what they would be on pace for that. Yeah. And, you know, Michigan this year has no inexcusable losses. I mean, they're four and two. The two losses that they do have are Oklahoma and USC. And, you know, they beat Nebraska. So, like, I mean, it's not like things are in the dumpster right now. It's just not elite. So the question always remains. What are the standards of this specific program and how have the standards of this program shifted in the last two years? since capturing a national title and how much does the head coach that was a part of that national

title run but was not the head coach at the time get to absorb from that run in terms of leeway or leash that he might have to try to build this thing his own way. So I don't know. I feel like I'm kind of confused about Michigan fans because last week or two weeks ago, I can't remember when we put the super board or the mega board post up from the Michigan truce of, hey, everybody we're not going to call for his head if we lose this game type of deal. It's like the reactions in that and that thread were kind of mixed of like, yeah, no, we're not doing that. And some people like, I can call for whoever's.

What do you think? Is Michigan fans, are they losing their, are they losing their? I think they'll be pretty thin on patience if they lose this game. I don't think they'll be completely out. I think he's, he's built some goodwill. And obviously there was his role in the national championship. There was the situation he got put into. he, you know, he's got a freshman quarterback.

I think everybody understands all that stuff. But, you know, I look at the team they're playing, and it's interesting with Washington. So Michigan went to Washington last year and lost. That's, you know, makes sense for both teams. Washington was undergoing a rebuild two. Jetfish has done a really good job there in year two. They're five and one. Stat that I want to point out, Washington had not won a game on the,

the road in Big Ten places joining the league until they beat Maryland on the road a couple weeks ago. So they had a comeback win against Maryland. That was their first Big Ten Road win. So they've broken the seal on that. They've shown they can do it. And the thing I was thinking about a lot

this morning, Ari, is I love watching Demand Williams play. And you've seen him, you saw him in that Maryland game, lead them back. You saw him against Rutgers where that was a tight game for a while. And then it just they blow it open. Now they obviously have some really good skill town on that team. Denzel Boston is a receiver that is shooting up draft boards right now. Jonah Coleman is a touchdown machine

on the ground. But I look at DeBan Williams. So watching Bryce Underwood, I was thinking to myself, what if they let Bryce Underwood play the way that Jed Fish lets DeMond Williams play? I think Michigan's offense would be scary if you did that you know a lot of my uh price underwood reaction stuff right or wrong comes from like dave portnoy because he's all over social media and all of his and had a hand in recruiting yeah but like they always promote and i see his reactions to bryce underwood and his take um not that he's some sort of football genius but like he is a uh out and center you know mascot for the their fans is like let the kid play like that was what it always feels like is the prevailing

thought um now the question i have back to you about that andy is like yeah sure if you are restricting him because he's young or calling a dumb down offense because you don't want to put him in peril all these things and that's the reason why it doesn't seem like he's fully comfortable out there or just cooking the way that we thought he would and that's one thing but you know damon williams i think is faster in plays like i think that's like damon williams is default like that's the way he played the second he got in before the second they made him the starter last season that's how he played i don't think that he's only ever played like that but secondly too if you have a first round receiver that gets open and makes plays consistently does it allow you

to be more free with the football through the air because you know their number one thing with michigan this year is you know they have fine receivers they don't have anybody who you can rely on to change a game and i think that denzel boston can do that. So that's kind of a complicated thing. And I wanted to make one other point, Andy, about Michigan as it pertains to just like offseason, preseason thought processes about a team. You know, I thought that, you know, it felt like I was being overly negative coming into the year and saying that I'm not sure that this is a playoff team. In some instances, like with Penn State, for instance, like we, I put them number one, we thought they had a chance to win in the playoff, make the playoff. fly off go further than they did last year. And that was a reasonable thought process about Penn State because of the roster they had what they accomplished last year and the coaching improvements that they made. Penn State failed to do that.

They failed to live up to the reasonable standard that was set forth for them. There are sometimes teams who have unreasonable standards set forth for them who don't reach them because they were unreasonable. And I don't know if people were being reasonable about what Michigan should have been coming into the year. Well, so what I gather from at least reading the message boards the last week or so, they do not expect Michigan be a playoff team this year. They were not going into the season expecting Michigan to make the playoff.

They would like to see Michigan be competitive and be close. I think eight and four, nine and three probably is where everybody was thinking the season would land. If we're being real about it, if they lose this game, there's a very good chance. Eight and four is still on the table. Sure. You know, you lose to Ohio State. and then that's the only the loss you take

because the rest of the schedule is fairly managed. That's going to happen yet. Exactly. They beat them last year and they lost five games. So I do think the Michigan fans

are being fairly reasonable about this. I also am wondering if Michigan should be favored by five and a half points in this game given what we've just talked about. I would take the five and a half. I think the playoff.

stuff because there were a lot of people out there that were putting Michigan in the bracket. And I don't know if that was just, you know, blind faith in Sharon Moore or if that was an overhype of a freshman quarterback or just the notion that they're going to have a nasty defense because Michigan always does. But from a personnel standpoint, I wasn't seeing it coming into the year, especially losing the guy like Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant and all these guys that they had on their team. Like they don't have those game wrecking defensive linemen anymore. I think that they could lose to Washington, finish eight and four, and that be a completely fine year.

And I think that hot seat stuff about Sharon Moore in that type of context would be insane. And it would die down as the second half of the season goes on and you keep winning games. Right. So, like, listen, they're playing Washington and their next four games after that are Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, and then, of course, Ohio State at home. And Ohio State should win that game. There's an at Maryland in there, too. But, yeah.

Did I miss Maryland? Yeah. And that might be their toughest game before Ohio State that they've got left. Yeah, the one in East Lansing is the one where if they were to lose that one, I think that's where people would lose their minds. And now you're starting to, like, this is what I think. Yeah. What you just said is exactly what I think.

They can lose to Washington. I think that's acceptable. Washington's a pretty good team. Now, you don't want to lose as a five and a half point favorite at home. I get it. You would prefer to win. But you know when hot seat stuff, what becomes reasonable is if they drop a game, to Michigan State. If they lose to Maryland and then they lose to Ohio State,

you're starting to get into that six and six, seven and five, because I think eight and four was the reasonable expectation coming into the year. And it seems like they're right on track to do that. Now, the new narrative, I can see three or four years down the line right now is that Michigan used to go nine and three and eight and four all the time. They cannot allow themselves to accept eight and four for the long term. Like, Eight and four is okay for this year. They had some bad holes with personnel last year. This needs to be the stepping stone into the playoffs.

This is a stepping stone to the playoff next year. If they don't go out and get better in the off season after an eight and four year, upgrade their receivers, shore up their defense and put out the Michigan branded type of team that we anticipate and some people blindly thought what happened this year, that's when I think hot seat stuff happens. I think we're a year early on that. I don't know if I would subscribe to that.

viewpoint that I don't think that he should be fired in the in the guys of that type of season or even discussion about that right now do you agree with that no I think I think that's fair I think if they lose in East Lansing we'll have this different we'll have a very different conversation that that'll be like when when Penn State lost UCLA very different conversation but I do think we need to examine Sharon Moore's wardrobe choices a little more I have never been a fan of that we're a blue-collar team. I get that you want to be hard working. It's cliche.

But the thing is, like, why doesn't somebody come out and be like, we're going to be a white collar team? We're going to increase our margins. We're going to slash payroll and raise our stock price. We're going to dominate our competition, create a monopoly that the FTC has to break up. I think there are white collar teams. When you dominate as a white collar team.

When you dominate as a white collar team, you dominate a lot more than a blue collar team does. White collars, Texas Tech, a white collar team? It might, which is funny because that money was made in the patch, baby. It is really cool how you can go from being like the most rugged hands-on, like tough man's man on earth, and then you're just a delicate white collar billionaire, like you in the same lifetime. But there's a lot of people like that. Like if you start a plumbing business and you learn how to fix things, with your hands and then you scale out your business

and then you become a rich guy. If you scale it up, you become a white collar guy. Yeah. More than a blue collar guy. Yeah. But I didn't know that the entire team was issued these jackets in the past. I had never heard of this before. So you're, I was very glad to hear he didn't just have it made for the press conference because

that would have been very bad. Because that's what I came into the show today thinking that he had it made just to wear to the news conference. And I'd be like, that's corny. Like the whole team has them and that's like a thing that they were doing under Harbaugh, and I just didn't know about, then fine, I'll give them a pass on it. But, like, we don't need to have Halloween's in two weeks.

The internet had a field day with this. Producer River, let's get going. You're Sharon Moore's and Ashton. You got to read what the tweets are with them. Oh, hold on. I'll get to that. Oh, yeah, trust me. Yeah.

So as a program, I need to give these people proper credit. So this is Fred Mahomes on Twitter. As a program, we have to take small steps before he can make giant leaps. Yeah. And he is dressed as an astronaut. And my God is AI amazing at this stuff. Next one from Brutus Wayne. This is a Buckeye fan.

He's in a chef's costume for you podcast listeners. He's got the Michigan touc on top of his head. that's why I'm wearing chef whites to remind the team and fans to just keep calm and let me cook there's one of them as an airline pilot there's one of him is Ryan day he's wearing the Ohio State polo and it says and to show my team we can still win a national championship after two losses there's one of him as a sea captain this is from Anthony as the head coach it's my job to steer the ship. There's one for McNeil, which is a...

McNeil is a big-time Cleveland area fan. I sent this one to producer River, but I'm sure he decided he was not going to show it to the people on the show. But if you want to go find it on the internet, you go ahead. Imagine the village people. You know which village person I'm talking about.

That's why I'm dressed as a male Dom because we plan on dominating two and for Purdue. That would have been fine. It would have been fine. But Producer River airing on the side of caution because he knows what we're going to talk about at the end of the show and knows it might get us fired already.

Yeah. Well, you know, I think I flirt with being fired at least once a week. So that would have been fine. But I think that the jokes were funny. And that's what happens when you do that stuff. You open yourself up to being ridiculed. I got one more

Okay one more He's dressed as a plumber He's holding a plunger This is Zulu Trojan Who put this on the internet A lot of shit to bring up in today's film session Yeah Tremendous

I know that like I feel like in my In my career I have benefited at times of being one of the younger people, like understanding pop culture, like listening to the same music that a lot of the kids that were coming up were listening to and all that stuff. And now I know I'm like aging out of that. But I try to, um, like put myself in the same position or thought processes like a 20 year old kid who's in Michigan's locker room.

And like, do you think that would resonate with them? The jacket? The jacket thing. Yeah. Not in the least. Right. So like. it's kind of corny

the dom outfit yes he showed up in the dom outfit then then you know there'll be some question I don't think the jacket work it's interesting because I watch my kids football team and they have a pretty smart team

like a lot of the kids are in a bunch of AP classes and like none of the usual corny motivational stuff works on them it's you try that on them and they're just they're just tuned you about and i think the show is over can you explain to me why like a skin tight leather outfit with chains is like good for any type of sexual activity like guys because i've never understood that outfit thank you there it is producer river put it up uh i cannot help you there

are you i've never understood as as i tell everyone i've lived a very boring life and and because i've lived a very boring life i have no practical experience with uh leather whips or chains in any sort of context so i don't know what to tell you if you're a listener and you know why and you wear this kind of thing just send me an email and tell me what seems yeah seems awfully restrictive in in a time when you need flexibility and yeah access so we'll see this is not not where i think the uh the michigan folks thought their their segment was going but hey i want to offer you michigan fans a medello michigan's a medello school by the way grab yourself of a Modelo, stay game day ready all season long.

I will say this, because I've patrolled a lot of message boards this week. The Michigan fans are in a very secure, calm, stable place right now. When after the game last week, I didn't expect them to be. But compared to some of these other message boards I've been looking at, they're in a good place. So grab yourselves a medello, celebrate being calm and rational. as long as it, you know, you may not be in two days, but celebrate being calm and rational this week. It is time for Medello every time there's a kickoff. Every time there's a time out.

Every time there's a half time. It's Medela time. Grab yourself, Madelo, stay game day ready all season long. All right. It's time now to visit with our friend John Ewing from BedmGM because John always brings us really good insights about why people are putting money on something, how many people are putting money on something, and whether history tells us that's a good idea or not. And this week, he's got some very interesting insights into the Ole Miss Georgia game, the LSU Vandy game, especially

USC Notre Dame. Let's talk to John. John, I wanted to to talk to you about a couple of lines that my lizard brain saw and said, what is this? But then when I looked at it and thought about the way the teams were playing this season, I was like, okay, this all makes sense. And I'm talking, of course, about Vanderbilt being favored against LSU at home and about Duke being favored against Georgia Tech in a game that might wind up deciding who plays in the ACC championship game. So let's start with the LSU Vandy game, John. What have you guys been seeing on this game? The line is held fairly steady since it opened this week. So what's the action

look like on this? Yeah, you're right. Vandy favored against LSU. How often does that happen? And not very, really. So Vandy opened one and a half. They're up to two and a half point favorites. First time Vandis been favored against a raked opponent since at least 2005. So a new spot here for this program in the Diego Pavia era, they're 13 and 6 against the spread, but only three and three against the spread as favorites. So when they're getting points, they've been really good at covering as favorites. You know, it's a coin flip, and right now we're seeing about 60% of money on LSU as a small hundred dollars. How many people do you think just take LSU because their brains can't

comprehend it? They're the higher ranked team. They're a brand name. They've proven in the past, right? They've had success. So yeah, I think there's a lot of casual fans out there that are like, there's no way. LSU, you know, getting points. That has to be the right side. So let's head to the one in the ACC, which is maybe even more intriguing because of the potential college football playoff implications of it. Duke, I think, after they lost to Tulane, people kind of bailed on Duke. They've played really well the last few weeks, and they are the toughest remaining opponent on Georgia Tech schedule, so tough, in fact, that the linemakers installed Duke

is a favorite, and they have remained a favorite all week. Yeah, one and a half points, no movement, really seeing balanced action on this game. I try to look up some interesting stats for you guys. I'm like how often unranked team favorite against a ranked opponent. If there's anything there, it all boils out to about basically 50% against the spread. Maybe the most interesting insight here is just Brickie, right, Georgia Tech, big splits here as favorites and underdogs. When they're laying points, they're 5, 9 and 1 against the spread. When they're getting points as dogs, they're 16 and 6 against the spread.

So pretty clear splits there in terms of how they perform. But the line's only one and a half points, not very, not a lot as dogs there. Yeah, but you got to love that, that little nugget there. John, you always have the fun numbers and trends. What's something else that you have circled this week? Yeah, let's talk Georgia, Old Miss, number nine versus number five. Georgia open nine and a half points. It's come down to a touchdown here, and we're seeing action on the rebels there.

But something that's interesting here in top 10 matchups, the team getting plus 50% of bets, just 106-148. That's a 42% cover rate since 2005. So is this a fade the public spot? Do you go against the number, go against Ole Miss? We say the public's on Ole Miss in this one, is what you're saying? Oh, interesting. And the cover rate is about 42% against the spread. But the line has come down.

So they're, you know, public and Sharps taking that number. And that's based on closing numbers. So some of that is, you know, did you get the nine? Did you get the seven and a half? Or where? This strikes me as a game that might move a little bit at the end. Saturday morning, you think? Yeah.

One way or the other. I mean, it just, I understand why it's a public play, a top five team in the end. the country is getting six and a half points against the team that I think it's pretty fair to be skeptical of. I mean, like our entire Monday show is the public playathon. So, you know, I don't know. I like Ole Miss, but it's scary to hear that. Well, and Lane's record on the road against this type of team is actually pretty bad. So that's the other piece of this, is we've never seen Ole Miss win a game like this under Lane. And so I'm, I mean, it makes sense that the line has dropped, that the public is on Ole Miss, but history isn't on their side right now.

They've got to do something they've never done before. Yeah, history even goes back seven days. Like, what do you take away from struggling with Washington State? Maybe nothing, but that's also. I don't take anything out of that because I think it just, I think Lane's not great with open dates. Like the open date killed him last year before Florida after they beat Georgia. This is not one of those situations. This is a, you survive.

Now you go into play this game. But, yeah, John, I'm excited to see this one. And you mentioned another game before we started recording in the SEC. Tennessee heading down to Alabama. What are you seeing there? Yeah, another popular underdog here, nearly 70% and bets are on the balls. The line has come down from Bama, 10 and a half to 8.5. But this is a spot where Tennessee has struggled, especially in the Josh Heifel era,

Tennessee, just five and nine against the spread as underdogs against top 25 teams, including just one and six as underdogs, as road dogs, excuse me. Yeah, so the public thing always freaks me out because, like, I don't even know, like, is there data that shows that the public is wrong more often than right over the course of, you know, the last five, ten, twenty years or over time? but in certain situations like we just mentioned of you know popular underdogs in these big matchups have historically failed to cover yeah but just don't want to ask you because you know how to do this and I don't if I just spread or I just picked the uh or faded the public in the 10 games biggest games every week would I be a winning better uh I don't think you could

can blindly follow any one trend or strategy right you my advice to anyone betting is to use as much information as possible you know get insights from you guys have a model or a power rating look at historical trends and then use your own eye right you watch the games what what do what can you apply to it and if everything points in the same direction for you then that's what i like to play speaking of the public USC Notre Dame feels like a public public game Notre Dame is like team public

this line has moved toward Notre Dame I believe because I think it opened eight and a half now it's nine and a half or it was as of this morning it was nine and a half that's I'm kind of piggybacking off Ari's question here like

because I don't know what to think when it's Notre Dame I think you know with other teams I'm like oh is this sharp money coming in or with Notre Dame, I'm assuming it's public money. So I don't know if I want to discount that that there's a lot of public money coming in. Don't worry about the line move or is it something I should consider? You know, what's interesting too is we're talking right now on Thursday. So much action is going to be placed in the next couple of days, especially on

Saturday leading up to kickoff. You could see up to 80% of total bets being placed on the games just on Saturday, Saturday morning. So right now, we're seeing 70% of bets and money on USC taking the points against Notre Dame. Wow. Okay. And this is essentially an elimination game for the Irish, if you guys agree. I mean, they don't have anybody who watched on the schedule. If they lose this game, I don't know what they hang their hat on and trying to get into the playoffs. So this is a huge game for them big game for usc obviously as well and then i was looking uh in the data in the markets freeman era notre dame has been awesome in this spot against top 25 teams 15 5 and 1 against the spread and uh that's not just like because they're getting a lot of points of dogs in their

favorite they were 10 and 3 against the spread as well so uh irish have done well by betters in these big games john you might not have this information in front of you but i'm curious how many of those games in that record you just illustrated were multi-score point laying situations? I don't. I'm sorry. Because I wonder like if, because like most of the time that Notre Dame's in the spot, they're like laying

three, four, five points, you know, when they're favorites. This just seems like a pretty big spread. And, you know, Andy and I are struggling with this one because it's like we're trying to figure out how much do we trust what we saw against a Michigan tough team against U.S.C. in terms of like, does that mean that they're a different team that's more able to hang with tough teams or if Notre Dame is just a terrible matchup for them.

Like I pick USC on Monday show, but I am terrified of that. Terrified of it. I will, I'll look that up right now as you guys chat. Wow, you're quick. Okay. Yeah, well, this is, Ari, we talked about this. I like the total in this game. I like the number in the low 60s going over.

And that's why I struggle so much with the spread, because even though it's more than a touchdown, the back doors open constantly in a shootout. And so it's 61.5. I think it's going over that. I think it's going to look similar to Notre Dame, Texas A&M, which was a 4140 game. And I just, the problem with that is you'll get teams

that are trying hard to come back from a deficit. They throw a pick six at the end. All of a sudden, somebody covers. So that's where I have an issue with this giant spread. It's not really, Notre Dame being predicted to win by a lot. I think, I just think both teams are going to score a lot of points. Do you remember last year's game off the top of your head?

Do you remember? It was three pick sixes, right? I believe there were pick sixes in this. Yes. The final score was 49 to 35. And there was two hundred yard or 99 yard pick sixes. So that obviously impacts the score. But Jay, my album, threw for 360 yards last year.

And that was, that was the same game and that Notre Dame covers. Yeah. I looked it up here, fellas. So actually, it was 15, 5, and 1 against the spread against ranked opponents, three times they were favorites of a touchdown or more. They covered each game. Wow. Wow.

Okay. Interesting. Yeah. I'm on Notre Dame here, right, Ari? And you're on USC? He's in all of them are last season, too. Yeah. And, like, it could be a highly competitive game.

Like, you just illustrated, Andy, and USC could easily. by 10. I mean, sorry, Notre Dame could easily beat USC by 10. Right. So, you know, eight and a half seems like a lot, but in the flow of a game, you know how quickly that can be covered. So yeah, that's really insightful, John, thank you for looking that up. John, every time we learn something, and I hope the folks are learning something here because the fact that they were, they've done that the last three times, that it was last season, like, that's pretty interesting because this is, this is a pretty similar team. I would argue with a more explosive passing game. And then USC is probably a better version of the USC team that Notre Dame B last season.

So this is going to be a fun one. John, thank you so much. And I can't wait to see what you bring us next. Thanks, fellas. Great being on with you. Appreciate you. That is John Ewing. And, oh, boy, am I glad that I'm on Notre Dame now.

And you're on USC. Yes. Because I was going to take USC, and then you, I just decided to fade you, basically, on Monday. Yeah. And I feel a lot better about that. Don't ever be fully glad you did something until you win. But I will say that picking the games on Monday is probably good for the show because it gives people something to look forward to earlier in the week. Picking games for winning is harder.

Well, right. And I think you probably would wait a little bit longer, see how the lines move. although there's certain lines you can grab like if you loved old miss plus nine and a half and you grabbed it early in the week before it dropped that's great that's good for you if you you know if you feel pretty good about how old miss is going to perform in Athens then you're in you're in good shape but yeah it does help to have more information before we get to the the other dear and dear rie questions i want to tell everybody uh pinini interesting news from our friends at panini they just did a deal with the South Florida Express,

which is a big seven-on-seven team down in South Florida. They take players from Dave Broward and Palm Beach counties. And I've known these guys, the people who run in South Florida Express for a long time, the first time I covered a South Florida Express team in a tournament was in 2009. And I actually rode on the bus with them in 2010 to a national tournament, Tuscaloosa. We visited some schools along the way. the the team had like teddy bridgewater and ryan chaiseer were on the team at the time he was on the bus at 2009 yeah there were some really good players on the bus because uh obviously teddy and ryan

and then uh there were guys who played at stanford wayne lyons played at stanford and then at michigan uh there were guys who played uh andrew johnson played at louville with teddy uh eli rogers played at louville with teddy and then wound up in the nfl for a little while so there there were some really good players and it was it was very eye-opening getting a chance chance to spend a week with them. So Panini just did a deal with the South Florida Express, which, listen, this is a program that a lot of players, I just, the names I just mentioned were one team. And they've had, you know, Jeremiah Smith and a bunch of other really good players come through there. And so Panini is going to, to do a deal where, you know, those guys who,

a lot of them are four and five-star recruits when they're on the seven-on-seven team. So they're already getting their own trading cards. And who knows, Ari, I'm going to open a couple of packs from our Ohio State Blaster Box. And see see if we can pull former South Florida Express player J.J. Smith out of there

because that's, that's, we're looking for J.J. Smith, nukes. There's one in there specifically that I have a bounty on from you. So, uh, yeah, you don't get it. So we got a campus legends Eddie George. We got a legendary

contenders, Ted Ginn, Jr. Great kickoff return for touchdown against Florida. And then he heard his ankle on the celebration, and that was that was that. Never seen a person to look faster on a football field. James Hong, hockey player. And then student orientation, Colin White, Ohio State men's basketball player. I got one more pack, too, because these are only four cards per pack. So we're going to open two packs.

Let's see what we got. All right. Speaking of those guys from the 2006 team, legendary contenders Troy Smith, your 2006 Heisman trophy winner, got Tanner Creech, one of soccer players, John Mobley Jr., one of the basketball players, and a legendary contenders,

J.C. Sheldon from the women's basketball team. So still hunting, still hunting for a Jeremiah Smith. They got the on-campus cards and the color blasts, and the blaster boxes have the exclusive neon green prism. So we're looking for those. Remember, I got a Tavian St. Clair card the last time we opened a couple of these packs. So I got faith that there may be some more in there. Yeah, and that's the fun of it.

If there was a high value card in every pack, then there wouldn't be high value cards. So you've got to keep hunting. That's part of it. That's exactly right. Exactly right. All right. So now it's time to answer your questions. Go to Panini America.net to start your Panini collection today.

Very excited to see what they do with some of those big time recruits from South Florida that they're now going to be making cards of. That's going to be fun. But we have lots of great questions today because, I mean, Ari, this has been one of the juicier weeks in terms of news, in terms of storylines. I want to start on the field if I can. because I know everybody wants to do coaching carousel stuff, but we got really big games this week.

So I want to talk about some of these games. This one's from David, and it's about the SEC race. Dear Andy, I already, before this season, I predicted that three SEC teams would finish six and two, and two of them would make the conference championship game. In recent conversations about Texas, you suggest that given their relatively easy schedule, they cannot afford another loss.

Obviously, 9 and 3 Texas wouldn't deserve an at-large spot, but how confident are each of you that the final SEC standings will have at least two teams at 7-1 in the conference or better. Last year, 8 and 3 Texas A&M was hosting 10-1 Texas with a trip to Atlanta on the line. It's possible the exact opposite scenario unfolds this year. That's from David in San Antonio. Dave is right.

Do you imagine Texas A&M at 10 and 1 going to Austin with Texas at 8 and 3, but with only two losses in SEC, and in a position to win the tiebreakers to go to Atlanta. That is entirely possible. Yeah. I mean, look, there's eight teams within one game of each other. And we've got the standings out there.

And I don't think these account for any tiebreakers. But right now, at 3 and 0 in conference play, you have Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Alabama. George is 3 in 1, LSU's 2 and 1, Tennessee's 2 and 1, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas are at 1 in 1. so there's a lot still left to happen here and I don't think I don't think anybody's going 8 and 0 in conference play and I don't think there's going to be 2 7-1 teams right and also on that graphic

I think there were a few teams that weren't represented like Vanderbilt only has one loss in SEC and I'm trying to see is Tennessee on there yeah Tennessee is 2 and 1 yep there's one other team missing and I'm trying to figure out which it is. But yeah, Texas is not on that. Oklahoma. Oklahoma only has one loss. Texas is not on the graphic. Oh, yeah. So, yeah, there was actually 10 teams with one loss or fewer in conference play. And like now they're playing each other at the top too. So I actually would be surprised if somebody

finished the regular season in the SEC with only one conference loss the way things are going. I think it's possible that the teams in the SEC title game are both two losses or more in conference play. Which means lots of funky tiebreaker match. going on there. Which really is the worst thing about having such a big conference because tiebreakers like determining things sucks. Nobody likes tiebreakers. But like there's too many teams that are too concentrated in like skill level for this not to be the case every year. So yeah, no, absolutely.

I don't know. You know, the graphic here at the bottom says how will the SEC race shake out? Who do you think would win the SEC? I mean, I think right now I would pick Alabama because they have the best record and are playing the best. And they have the most wins against really good competition in the SEC. But that doesn't account for the team. You feel very good about the three wins they've already got. That doesn't also account for the teams that have more advantageous paths from here on out, too, that you have to go to Twitter.

Because Texas, I think, is one of those teams that only has one SEC loss, but doesn't really, I mean, they play Georgia. And they've got to go to Athens. Yeah. They have to go to Athens and they have to play A&M at home. So it's entirely possible that they could have three SEC losses by the end of the season. They could have four. Vanderbilt comes to them. So, you know, now obviously that would be disastrous for Texas, and I don't think that's going to happen.

But they are still behind the eight ball because they were not supposed to lose to Florida, and that puts them in a tough spot. Yeah. But your guess is as good as mine. The Big 12 has come to the SEC, and it's funny that the winner of the Big 12 seems easier to project right now than it does in the SEC, except the differences. And maybe Texas Tech will prove this notion wrong, but the winner of the SEC, I feel. like has a chance to win the national title. So it's like it's bad shit crazy during the regular season,

but whoever comes out of it, it's going to be a pretty attractive team to pick. As you look at that set of standings, how many of those teams do you think have a real chance of winning the national title? Like you put them in the playoff. Four. You'd feel comfortable with them winning three or four games in a row. Four.

Ole Miss, A&M, Alabama, Georgia? Yeah. Okay. That's fair. That's fair. Uh, yeah, Alabama, Alabama was, is the one I feel the best about because we've actually seen them win three very hard games in a row. Yeah. And like that, like the, I guess the viewpoint of that would too. Like if LSU turns it on and figures out how to unlock their offense, I think I would probably add them because from a physical talent standpoint, they probably have enough good players to do it. Yeah. Like if Garrett Nussmeyer all of a sudden starts playing the way we thought he did and they start running the ball, like then all of a sudden you can kind of change your mind on that sort of thing. I don't know.

know if Oklahoma is deep enough this year to do it. I don't think Mizzou is deep enough to do it this year. Tennessee, I think maybe you could make a case. I'm not like 100% certain that Tennessee would be out of that conversation, but as things stand right now, I wouldn't put them in. Yeah, I think Tennessee, Alabama will tell us a lot about that. Yeah. How they play in that game.

And like Tennessee could go beat Alabama this weekend and then they're number one on that list. I mean, like that's the fun of the games. But from what I'm looking at right now, I don't know. And there's one team that's not even on this graph. that I think if they turn it on could win it all, and that's Texas. Like, I haven't completely forgiven or forgotten my preseason projections or who's on their team.

But what we saw in Dallas wasn't good enough. So if that's who they are, no shot. We're going to find out. We're going to find out. It's going to be fun. Next question comes from Craig. And this is a long one, but it's a good question. Craig's a Wisconsin fan, but brings a couple other programs into this conversation as well.

And I think it's a very insightful. point that he makes. Craig says, I'm a lifelong Wisconsin fan well into the Depression acceptance stage of the Luke Fickle failure. What struck me is that Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech are all very similar in where they stand and what it says

about college athletics. When Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech were at their peaks, they took two and three star players, got them in the weight room, and developed them. They were starting a lot of redshirt, juniors, and seniors, so they created a feeling of 22 and 23-year-old grown men versus boys.

They overcame their natural disadvantages in recruiting by getting old and staying old. This was the money ball strategy of its era. We can't compete with Ohio State, Oklahoma, Miami for five-star players, but we can make that hot-shot freshman play against a 23-year-old redshirt senior who is stronger, smarter, and more discipline. For the most part, this is impossible in the transfer portal era. A three-star player who redshirts and then plays sparingly in his registered freshman season

won't stick around for another two years to earn a starting role. It will transfer a group of five school or a desperate power for where you can play right away and then transfer again to a power for that will pay up. What is the moneyball strategy of the transfer portal in IL era? It can't just be the Texas Tech model of wait for an oil billionaire alum who wants to win because that's a money ball strategy, that's a lowercase money ball strategy, not an uppercase money ball strategy. Is it just scouting the portal well to find hidden gyms? On your show this week, you mentioned that you couldn't tell if fickle was sold a bill of goods or if he misallocated what he was given. Look at his first

transfer portal class. I don't think it was a cheap class. He bought three quarterbacks, Tanner Mordecai, Nick Evers, and Braden Locke, all were from pretty big schools. Two wide receivers, Williams from USC and Green from Ohio State, was it Ohio State? Yeah, who would have been expensive enough, who would have been expensive even though none of them panned out. The failure of that class set everything back because there were always too many holes to fill. Of all of Fickle's favors, one of his biggest was not understanding in-state recruiting. I think Wisconsin can still do the get-old, stay-old strategy on the offensive line by finding two-star in-state offensive linemen. find six-foot-five hostas who grew up wanting to be a badger, treat them right, and you can possibly keep them out of the portal.

But other than that, I don't know how you create a developmental program in this era. I'd love to read an article about how you create a winning football program with a middle-of-the-pack budget. Lots to unpack here. Well, one thing I want to jump in here, Andy, the green receiver that he was mentioning was Bryson Green from Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I read that wrong. The only names to deal with. It's hard to remember all this. Yeah. So I want to, there's a, this could be the rest of the show, by the way. This is a really good question. First, I want to ask you just a boilerplate question that has nothing to do with Wisconsin.

Okay. Do you think that the money ball strategy that he is referring to is impossible now because I don't. I don't think it's impossible either. Yeah. Second of all, he's correct. that money ball strategy, but if you go and look at some of the Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State teams, they also did that. Like, Wisconsin wasn't the only team that was taking undervalued players and developing them for three years.

Like the thought process that everybody that was on the field was a freshman or sophomore or junior before they left to the NFL, like Ohio State made some pretty big plays with redshirt seniors who took longer to develop in big time moments. Well, Ohio State also had to run under Urban Meyer where you'd have a third year player who's never really started and he starts as a third year player and then ends up going to the NFL because he blew up. That happened a lot too. They just played special teams for two years.

And during that two years, they were also developing. Now, the second part, because like I think that if you go out and get two and three star players, now Wisconsin didn't really, I mean, maybe some, but not wasn't really in the two star that range. There were a lot of three stars. I still think that if you go get the right people who fit the culture of your program, you can create an environment where people want to stay. Like, I don't think that if a three-star player who's not ready to play right away is in your program for a year that they're automatically entitled or seeking to leave to go play at Tulane the next year.

Like, I don't think that that's true. And then lastly, I don't like the idea that Wisconsin is some sort of lower budget middle tier can't afford anything program. Like, I think that, like, is fundamental. They're rich. Yeah, like, they're very, very wealthy. They are rich. like if you think that Miami can win the national title like I would love to and I don't know this stuff I don't even know if it's public information or a way to calculate it but would you say that Wisconsin and Miami have similar funds Wisconsin has more money from its own athletic department than Miami now Miami may have a better owners NIL donor structure but that with rev share that should be equalized anyway Wisconsin should be on the same footing as a school like Miami and way ahead of the rest of the SEC the the ACC the the ACC

way ahead of a lot of the Big Ten, ahead of some of the SEC, ahead of all of the ACC and the Big 12. They're not a poor me type school. They have resources. Right. I think if you can be good at Indiana, you can be good at Wisconsin. I think you can be good anywhere else.

Now, the question remains, will a team that isn't in the Big Ten or the SEC ever win a national title again? Well, Wisconsin is in the Big Ten. So that's not really a question for them. but yeah but i'm saying like that they are not in the window so uh like i feel like i understand the point and i think that like 85% of it i'm on board with but like i still think that the money ball strategy of you know using your you know your ability to analyze and prospect the right players bringing those players into your program compensating them much less but fairly for what they're

providing and developing them is still a way to do it. Now, the problem for Wisconsin. Well, in Wisconsin, should still be able to have the money to go pay a bunch for a really good quarterback. That's from like my analysis of what went wrong with Wisconsin is that they haven't had a good quarterback at any point during Duke Fickle's tenure. Tanner Mordecai was okay. We was doing all right and then he got hurt.

And that first Fickle team went off the cliff when Tanner Mordecai got hurt. They've missed on the evals of the quarterback since. maybe Billy Edwards would have been that guy if he hadn't gotten hurt in the beginning but I mean I don't know I think Maryland upgraded a quarterback

when Billy Edwards left I think Malik Washington was better I don't know how Wisconsin has got this far into the tenure of a coach who was this successful and this coveted without ever fielding a really good quarterback

right and it doesn't always have to be out of the portal you could you could recruit one out of high school you know and like I was watching one of their recruits on television last night like maybe mater was playing for sam Houston state that was just a mis-evaluation like that wasn't you know that that wasn't anything going wrong other than you didn't he can't play at that level so like to me Wisconsin isn't in this position because their money ball situation doesn't work it's because they picked the wrong players to bring in or they didn't get enough yeah aggressive enough

The missed e-val part of it, I think, is the part that needs to be focused on a little more. They probably had the funding. They certainly had the funding to be a middle-of-the-packed Big Ten program. And they are the worst team in the Big Ten, and maybe the worst team in the power conferences. Just ask the question to yourself, why did Fernando Mendoza go to Indiana? and can Wisconsin sell the same thing? Now, I understand that Indiana went to the playoff last year and Kurtzignati is a very exciting coach right now to play for.

Fernando Mendoza also told Georgia no to go to Indiana. But it's not like Indiana is doing something from a financial standpoint that Wisconsin can't conceive of is my only point. Exactly. Yeah. No, get your Luke Altmire. Like, Luke Altmire did. Didn't start an Ole Miss.

Brett Bilema picked him up. He's been awesome in Illinois. Like, Wisconsin would kill for a Luke Altmire right now. Yeah, Maryland has a really good freshman quarterback who's killing it. Yeah. You're telling me that Wisconsin can't get what Maryland has? Wisconsin took what Maryland had. That's why that kid's starting in Maryland now.

That's true. They just picked the wrong one. They should have taken the freshman. Yeah, I don't know. But I think that like the spirit of the question is so interesting because there is so much roster turnover, you don't really have 70 or 60 players on your roster for a three-year period at any point. So like that, the developmental aspect of it, which is some of the best players that have produced for Wisconsin or third year, fourth year guys who started in the

program, like can they do that again? And I also wonder, too, if that is a good successful strategy when you can get those third, fourth, and fifth guys in the portal now, too. Just because they didn't develop there doesn't mean that they didn't develop, right? Right. So, you know, there are a lot of players who are fourth year guys

who got picked up in the portal who are producing at new places. Yeah, there's no reason you can't get good players out of Mac schools. There's no reason you can't get good players out of the FCS. Last I checked, Ole Miss is atop the SEC standings

with a QB who played at Ferris State in Division II last year. You think Wisconsin is not aware of what goes on at Ferris State? Wisconsin and Michigan aren't that far apart. And I think if you're a Wisconsin fan too, you also should be energized by this. Like I hope you're not listening to this and thinking, oh, we're shitting on your question because I actually think it's a great question.

But I think it should energize you into knowing what's possible there because you don't need to view your program as a second-rate citizen that has to rely on being, you're not the Oakland athletics of this of college. football you're just not like there are a lot of other teams that fit oakland athletics yeah i mean Oklahoma state needs local and and he mentioned Oklahoma State Virginia Tech they're in the same boat Wisconsin is not in the boat with them Wisconsin is a much larger boat Wisconsin's on a yacht and they're not so or Wisconsin's on the yacht sleeping in the master bedroom and Oklahoma State uh and Virginia Tech are somewhere beneath water level in

like a bunk bed situation. They're not in a steerage situation. Yeah. So, but great question. And I think we could have talked about that even longer. But I think, yeah. Well, all right, let's move on to Christian's question because Christian asked about the topic that everybody wants to talk about was coaching carousel, which the James Franklin thing, I think put it into overdrive. We mentioned Wisconsin.

I don't know that they do anything with fickle after the Ohio State game. they do play at Oregon the following week and then they have an open date so I do think the fickle things run its course I don't see how they continue at this point I don't know if the AD is going to survive yeah I don't know if you do it right now with them going to Oregon or you just wait

God they're scheduled it's so hard it's so hard unbelievable hard oh hard yeah like that's the other thing I find this funny, too, when you're like, oh, well, if they lose to Ohio State this weekend, he's gone. It's like, even if things were going great for him, he probably were lost to Ohio. They were going to lose that game anyway. Yeah.

You should fire somebody when they lose to teams they're not supposed to lose to. Well, no, they should have fired him after losing 37 to nothing to Iowa. That was an inappropriate time. It's just logistically inconvenient. Yeah. So it's logistically convenient to fire him after the Oregon game. So maybe they wait. Yeah.

All right, here's Christian's question. Hi, Andy and Ari. I'd like to propose a question inspired by a point that was briefly mentioned a week or so ago about whether Florida is actually a better job than somewhere else. For life, I can't remember where in 2025. It was Penn State, I think we were talking about. Let's imagine there are clear and distinct tiers of schools where these jobs to open. For the sake of this email, let's say the Tier 1 schools are Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama.

Programs that have won a national championship recently have been in the running almost every single year. over the past decade consistently sent players the NFL draft have adapted well to this new era of NIL in the transfer portal and both great facilities, good administration, et cetera. Tier two can be considered schools that are missing some of these factors or missing out on one of them significantly. So that would be, I think, in the spirit of Christian's question, we'd be talking about LSU, Florida, Penn State, Oregon, Michigan, maybe. Yeah, these are, can be good, have been good, maybe it may have won a national championship recently. but not consistently.

Auburn, I think, would be in this one if we're talking about schools that could potentially open soon. Here's Christian's question. If you are an elite coach at a tier two school, does it make sense for you to jump ship in favor of a slightly better tier two school?

Even if your current school fan base actively supports or is at least willing to support you to the best of their abilities. The obvious example is Kurt Signetti in Indiana. People agreeing that he'd be a slam-down hire if he were to take the Penn State job. However, I think this stands to guys like Marcus Freeman, Lane Kiffin, and Eli Drenkowitz when considering either the Penn State job or the inevitable Florida job. The expectations are, or at the very least will soon be, almost immediate success, matching or exceeding what you're doing at your current job with little to no slipups early on.

Christian keeps going, and it's a lot of the same kind of points. I think this is a great point. I think this is very interesting. And obviously I live in Gainesville, the Florida fan base wants Lane Kiffin if they decided to move on from Billy Napier. And I've asked this question. And look, I'm a Florida grad, but it is a legitimate question to ask, would you leave if you're succeeding in Ole Miss, would you leave for Florida? Or would it be wise to leave for Florida? Would it be wise to stay at Ole Miss?

Before you jumped to the second slide, I thought he was a Nebraska fan asking about rule. But I think that also, like, I mean, that's still like right into the wheelhouse of the question here. It's like, what's the point of leaving a place that is similar to yours, but the expectations are higher? That I just rolled down the whole question. Yeah. And the thing is, like, let's take Lane Kiffin or Eli Drinkwitz, because I think, you know, Drinkwitz's his name is going to come up with all these, too, because he's done a great job at Missouri. you go to these other places and instantly inherit the expectations. But you don't have any of the goodwill that you've built up like you do at the old place.

Like Lane and Drink have built up expectations at Ole Miss and Missouri. Like they expect huge things out of both of them. They're schools. But they've also built up a ton of goodwill because when they took the job, it wasn't like this. and it's not like this now at Florida or Penn State. Penn State's different than Florida, obviously. Auburn and Florida are probably more similar. But the expectation is you're supposed to come in and immediately fix it,

immediately get them where they're supposed to be. And I say immediate, I mean, within like a couple of years. Penn State might be immediate immediate because James Franklin won 13 games last year. Here is the truth. We still assign what is a good job based on what made jobs good in 2020, and I think coaches are doing the same thing. I think on the surface that Penn State is a better job than Nebraska based on preconceived notions of the way things used to be. I think it goes without question that Florida is a better job than Ole Miss when it goes back. to what it used to be.

The question is if coaches and agents are going to subscribe to their preconceived notions of what is a higher quality job, or if they're going to realize that the jobs that they would be jumping to actually might not be as good as they used to be. And the number one thing that has to be accounted for here, because they are people and money does drive the world, is back in 2010 and 50, Penn State would pay you a hell of a lot more than Nebraska probably would. Ole Miss lost a coach to Auburn.

Tommy Tuberville, the Pine Box comment. He left Ole Miss because he felt like he could win more at Auburn. And at that time, he was probably right. He leaves Ole Miss in the late 90s. He goes to Auburn. He did go undefeated at Auburn. Yeah. But I want to finish.

The point, though, you're not getting paid all that much more in these scenarios. And that's crazy. And the thing is, we'll use the Florida example with the two guys in the SEC, with Lane Kiff and Eli Drinkwitz. Ole Miss or Missouri can match whatever Florida will offer. Like, dollar for dollar, penny for penny. So there's no difference. So the motivations for leaving. and I keep going back to a rule in Penn State

because it's the only one that I can draw a clear conclusion and that's because you have a personal connection to the area or the university that wants you. But in terms of whether or not Penn State is a better living experience, better place with a higher ceiling to win a national championship, I think maybe geographically Penn State has something to say about their access to Jersey and the Midwest and Northeast

and I think Nebraska's kind of misplaced geographically in their conference. But how much does Geographically? even matter anymore? Like, geography doesn't matter? I don't know what that means anything. How much does history matter anymore? Yeah, I don't know that it matters.

And producer River says how much these coaches look at schedule and schedule draws everything. If you're in the SEC, the Big Ten, your schedule is hard. Like, but the SEC schedule is really hard. The Big Ten is there's more variability in your draw. But I'm telling you right now, if this system remains in place, place within five years, everybody in the Big Ten is going to be good, too. And you can't properly predict your future based on looking at schedules.

Who would have thought that Dan Lannning would have been geared up for the Indiana game this weekend? Yeah. Three years ago. We didn't know that was going to happen. You don't know which team is going to pop up and be the next team to invest in the right guy and brings the right players in and becomes really good. I still have questions about whether or not Indiana is going to be a playoff caliber team for seven consecutive years. but is Florida's history and their ceiling that they reached multiple times under Urban Meyer,

is that enough to make you think that Florida can do something or provide a resource, any resource, whether that be money, whether that be location, whether that be history, that makes Florida's ceiling to win a national title higher than it is at Ole Miss? And I think that you can make the straight-faced argument that there's nothing there. And if there's nothing there, then you might just like the weather there better. And like, I don't know. Maybe he likes to grow them better. And that's the thing.

You might want to live there more. And that's okay. Like, if somebody wants to take an equal paying job that has a similar ceiling and maybe a little higher ceiling, because they want to live there, that's fine too. But you do, if you leave, like you're Lane Kiffin, if you're Eli Drenkowitz, if you're Kurt Signetti, you do leave behind the goodwill you built up. And you just inherit the expectations. The Cleveland Plain Dealer, when I was 27, to cover USC for the Orange County Register in a second. I would have gone if that was something that would have happened. Now, the plane dealer was a better job.

Yeah. The Ohio State beats a better beat, but I would have rather live there. And, like, I think people lose track of the fact that people are people. So there was one other thing I was going to ask, and it's like I'm having a brain fart. So let me see if I can remember. Well, let me ask you the next question. This is one that somebody DM'd you. So if you tell me who asked this one.

Warren. My friend Warren texted me this. Oh, okay. This is your friend Warren. This is a very interesting text. My question is, why isn't Mike Elko mentioned with a Penn State job? From New Jersey, went to Penn. Is it that A, the jury's still out and he doesn't have a long enough track record?

You could easily go eight and four again this season. Or two, everyone feels that there's so much money at A&M that he's untouchable. This is an interesting question. I don't look. Mike Elko is. name has come up among people talking about the Penn State job and for the reasons that Warren said that local you know he's from there he's he's he's he went to school there now he's worked everywhere he's worked at Notre Dame he's where he was a DC at Texas A&M he was the head coach

of Duke he was a long time DC at Wake Forest so he's been all over the place I think he'd be great anywhere I also think if you could be successful at Texas A&M why would you ever leave Yeah. Yeah. That's the thing. I mean, I think that he's more than qualified. Now, I think that it's probably way more part A than part B. I don't think that programs are afraid of A&M's money. Like, I don't know that that's part of it. No, it's not that. Like, if you thought, and what you have is two good years at Duke, one pretty good year at A&M and what we have going on right now at A&M, which is excellent so far, but it's halfway done. I think you could also make the case that Mike Elko is the most qualified coach to try a new challenge of anybody in the country. He was a first time head coach at Texas A&M. No, he was the first time head coach at Duke. Oh, at Duke, sorry.

But then went to A&M. I'm looking at, I wrote a story about this in the athletic. He coached in the Ivy League at Penn in 2000. He was in the Mac at the Bowling Green from 2009 through 2013. He was in the ACC with Wake Forest and Duke. He coached at Notre Dame in 2017. Like from the recruiting factory at the SEC. at Texas A&M and now all those different places like he has recruited at academic institutions he's recruited in the south he's recruited in the at the most prominent or second most prominent Midwestern place like every level every geographical location like this guy has like in terms of like being a well rounded individual and he succeeded at every one of them like that like to me like from a resume standpoint maybe that goes into play a little bit more than just like how many games did you happen to win like that was the thing that scared the shit out of me about about about um

Alabama's coach. Kalin DeBoer? Yeah, sorry. I don't know what's happening in my brain. The Black Cody of Death? Kalin DeBoer, like, got really, really hot at Washington and became a household name and went to Alabama, like, in a two-year period or a one-year period. And, like, that, taking Washington to the national championship game might actually just be enough, you know, to prove that you could win at the highest level with the most resources. maybe it is but like in terms of deep resumes more goes into it than just like how many games did

you happen to win one year how many games how many coaches have won 10 games are made great runs and then turned out to like that that was the anomaly of their career now kailin debor won everywhere that he was i'm not saying that's the case with him you know uh everywhere that he went even in lower levels like he was great but elko to me is a unique candidate because he's having success on the field right now again warren pointed out it's still the jury's out they haven't finish the season yet, and maybe there will be some sort of A&M Hex that, like, allows them or makes them, you know, wind up at 8 and 4 again. I would doubt that that happens this year. But I am surprised that he is not, he is not. But here's the thing, Ari, it's not that

they're afraid of A&M's money, but if I'm Mike Elko and I'm going to win the SEC at A&N this year, and I don't know if he's going to, but he'll, by the time these jobs would actually be officially offered, we'll know. If I'm Mike Elko and I have a chance to win the SEC and I'm going to the playoff at Texas A&M. I'm looking at the resources Texas A&M can give me and I'm looking at what everybody else can give me and I'm just staying put. Here's the

real reason why Elko's name isn't coming up. It's because Penn State is not a better job than A&M. That's a downgrade. Like period. I don't know if it's a downgrade but I think it's parallel at least. And if you want to check tape,

go look at our job rankings from the summer. I had Texas A&M as a top five job in America in the summer. And I know that you pushed back on that quite a bit. But when you think about it. But that was the supernatural thing, which they may be breaking the hats. Yeah. Maybe there is this like, it is Halloween season.

But like the Aggie battered baggernaut, battered Aggie syndrome could be dying right now. Think about everything that Texas A&M has at its disposal. One of the largest, most amazing stadiums in college football. Traditions, unlike anywhere else, you might think they're weird, but they're cool and unique. and I think what makes college football cool. They have more money than anybody from a donor standpoint. They are making SEC television revenue money. They have zero legendary head coaches who have won national championships

in the modern era of college football. The standard of what you are being expected of does not match the other places in your same conference that are paying coaches a heck of a lot more than you're making. Any success that you have as you break through, True makes you a legend there. Explain to me from a lifestyle standpoint. You're in the state of Texas, which is one of the two single deepest talent states in the country. And I think that geography is meaning less in the grand scale. But being in Texas is still a huge advantage. I don't care what anybody says. There are too many kids too close to you for that not to be an advantage. You're literally a 45 minute drive from one of the deepest metropolitan areas for high school football talent in the country. Explain to me why going to Penn State would make sense for him. explain to me why anybody going to Penn State. It wouldn't. If you can win at Texas A&M, you don't need to go anywhere. And A&M ceiling is higher than Penn States, or maybe it's the same.

If you still think that it's... Well, the ceiling of both is national championship. There's no higher ceiling than national championship. But I think that the hurdles to get to the national championship are higher at Penn State than they are at A&M. I don't think so. That's what I'm my opinion. Otherwise, A&M would have national championships more. recently than Penn State and they don't so yeah i mean there's there's other things that that go into

that too like program it's oh i mean Penn states last one was a long time ago too yeah i was i in diapers when that happened i can't remember their last one it was 1986 yeah i wasn't born yet um so in four decades yes against miami um i think that that taking the pens the pen state job you have Penn state higher so we fundamentally disagreed on this before the jobs were opened But remember, I said the Texas A&M one is because of supernatural reasons. You take the supernatural reasons away. I would have Texas A&M somewhere in my top 10. Yeah.

I would rather be the coach at Texas A&M than Penn State, period. Also, if I'm already winning at Texas A&M, I'm not leaving for any job. Right. Any job. And I think that's the thing. Penn State just fired a coach who bade it to the college football playoff semi-final last year. If Elko goes to the college football playoff semifinal, that might buy him seven more years there.

Yeah. Period. I'm not leaving for any job if I am succeeding in Texas A&M. That period, the end. Because they'll give me what I need. Maybe they get sick of me after a while, but I'm going to be rich, and they're going to love me for at least a while. I think forever.

Anybody who breaks through there is going to get a statue. Yeah, I mean, they'll hate me when they fire me, but then they'll go to loving me in two years. And then you'll get to come back in half time and they'll cheer for you in 10 years. Yeah, yeah. No, I'm with you. All right, Ari. we got to close with a this wasn't even a question what is kind of a question our boss is the founder of on three shan and terry asked this to the world i was heating my coffee at on three hq this morning and found a pub in the on three microwave struggling as to how to handle this situation not in any leadership manuals that i've studied

and we found out later that person has an alibi. No, he doesn't. He was in the office this morning. He was not in the office this morning. He went, Producer River was not in the office this morning. I did go. I did go.

I was there. I was there. They were doing construction. They were doing construction. But, okay, did you heat anything up in the microwave? No, I did not. I did make coffee,

but I didn't heat anything in the microwave. I made coffee. I did not touch that microwave. Let me tell you right now, if you were on trial, right now for murder you'd be in the freaking chair no whatever were you in the office no yes uh did you touch the microwave no did you make coffee yet like it's like very like because if it is you're you're not going to come out and admit if you're making coffee though you wouldn't touch the microwave

normally so coffee i didn't eat lunch there so i didn't touch the microwave i haven't eat lunch there in the last two days so it wasn't me um here's the question that i do have if i were if i were on rivers defense team how how know, can Shannon Terry be sure that it's a pubic hair? Because it's curly. Does nobody's beard whisker when they come out of their face curl up? Not that curly. So you feel like you would go like you would bat a thousand in seeing hairs on a table and knowing which ones are pubs?

I feel like I could identify them fairly accurately. Yes. Interesting. But my question is this. What color is the offending? Alleged puke. Is it bright blonde? Suspect if it is. Because then we have a prime suspect if there is.

Yeah. J.D. Pekyll has a glorious main. That's a. I don't know if the carpet matches the drapes, but I'm assuming. But if they don't, then that's a hell of a way to get out of it if you're culpable. Oh, yeah. If it does not glow, you must acquit. So, like, just like in the same, like, mystery, in the same mystery solving vein as the

undisclosed panties that we have unsolved. Yeah. Yeah. How would a pub wind up in the microwave? You scratch your balls and then you take the cup or the mug that you used and then put your hand in and it falls off your hand. Why are we microwaving liquids? Like, people microwave food, you know.

He literally said that in the tweet. he was he said he found a pub in the microwave i was heating my coffee at hq okay but but you assume that everyone he just heats their coffee in there more than likely they were reheating their their food right which they scratch again oh gross again yeah yeah because the only way a pub could get in there is if it was on your hand it stuck to whatever you were heating like what you're heating is irrelevant yeah uh i will say i was walking where i was that the other day. Oh, Ari, we were leaving the state fair of Texas. We'd finish covering Texas Oklahoma. We were heading back to the car. I was walking behind a person and I noticed this,

I just noticed this. You remember unmarried with children? Al Bundy would always sit down on the couch and then shove his hand down his pants. This guy was walking like that and not just like reached down for a scratch like just had his hand down there for a solid minute well i was at a cabin on a lake with my wife and daughter and like a like with a bunch of friends and at night the kids were sleeping and i lay down on the couch and i put my hand in my pants now not on my member but like to the side i always put my and one of the girls there one of my wife's friend says why do men incessantly put their hands in their pants when they're laying down or sitting down and relaxing? Let's not paint with a broad brush.

I've never once in my life. But I think about their hands in their pants when they're laying down. So that said, if the pub landed in the microwave, that means the person was likely putting their hands in their pants while walking. because the Pube would fall off your hand if this happened hours earlier. Right. So we need a check tape.

Do they have security cameras in that building? I assume they do. They do. And then obviously, I don't want to cast aspersions on JD, but if the Pube is lit, you must not acquit. I thought River was really, really, really,

really really fishy there that's unbelievable yeah i'm gonna need to check the tape on unbelievable accusation you've got it's just the way that you responded to the intense questioning kind of has me like wondering like what's going on i'm were you there were you not there yes i was there i was there they were doing construction in the uh in the office i usually work in there was a lot of drilling going on i couldn't concentrate because i got to listen to you guys all day so you make it sound like it's such torture i'm going to listen to you guys all day it's not it's not but Just the drilling, I couldn't do both.

You can't listen to the drill and the incessant drone of me together. It's just two, it's sensory overload. Separately, it's fine. Separately, it's fine. Yes, I got you. And a panic and a tizzy because of the noise and how distracted it was, you also may have done things that you don't recall. That's right.

There might have been a slight itch. You may have said, hold on, let me get that. and then somebody took a ride on your hand no when you made coffee yeah did you bring the mug to the on three headquarters from your house or did you get the mug there from my house this is it right okay okay and that wouldn't go in the microwave because that was set the microwave on fire

and where is the sugar and the cream and the half and strength it black oh river's a true man where is the coffee machine I think Rivers Manley that's just acquitted him Good work Where is the machine

For coffee Located in relation to the microwave In the office It is So coffee machine To your right is the big fridge And then to the right of the fridge Is the microwave on the shelf

Where was NACOS in all this? I think he was at his desk He's just very nice today Closer to the microwave than your desk Way closer way closer are we sure it was a male pubic hair yeah probably we do trend one direction pretty hard also the ratio speaking of trends yeah if you are a listener and you have any tips on how river may have transported his pubic hair into the microwave please email us you're

helpful with the panties guys we're counting on you I'm not I've never been an attorney I don't know, but I'm, my, my radar for guilt is going off like a machine right now, and we're going to figure out how you get it. And that is the image we're going to leave you with until we talk some games, because there are some big games. Friday night games, Nebraska, Minnesota, the North Carolina Traveling Road Show heads to Berkeley where they got to play against JKS. That's going to be something.

And then, of course, some of the juiciest games of the season this season. Also Friday night, you've got, I forgot, you got Louisville, Miami. But then Saturday, you've got LSU-Vandy, you've got Georgia Tech, Duke. You've got Washington and Michigan. You've got Ole Miss, Georgia. You got Oklahoma, South Carolina. You have Texas Tech, Arizona State, Tennessee, Alabama. The Holy War.

And, of course, USC Notre Dame, it is going to be a hell of a weekend. try not to think too hard about the microwave. We'll talk to you soon.