Andy & Ari On3 - Can Texas tame the MONSTERS on the Michigan defense? | Is the Big Ten pulling even with the SEC?

Episode Date: September 5, 2024

Welcome to Andy and Ari On3, presented by Wendy’s! Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker,try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES(0:00-0:34) Intro(0:34-13:16) In-Depth Preview of South Carolina at Kentucky, 3:30 pm et start(13:17-30:35) Texas at Michigan preview in Ann Arbor(30:36-34:48) Dear Andy Intro - A look at Oregon(34:49-41:39) Big Ten vs SEC(41:40-45:04) Always pay off your bets!(45:05-51:40) How does Ohio State fall to mediocrity?(51:41-56:27) Has USC improved at QB?(56:28-59:04) More Grown up Ralphie?(59:05-59:36) ConclusionIt’s a Dear Andy and Ari show! But before we get to your questions, Andy and Ari preview the clash between Texas and Michigan in Ann Arbor. Can Quinn Ewers and a deep corps of receivers score repeatedly on Will Johnson and Michigan’s talented defense? How will Michigan QB Davis Warren look in start No. 2? Next, it’s time for your questions… After Michigan’s win against Alabama in the Rose Bowl and USC’s win against LSU on Sunday, is the Big Ten on the verge of catching up to the SEC? If former Duke QB Riley Leonard had followed former Duke coach Mike Elko to Texas A&M instead of going to Notre Dame, would it have changed the result of last Saturday’s Notre Dame-Texas A&M game? Is Miller Moss an upgrade at QB for USC? Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and join us LIVE, M-Th at 9:30 am et! https://youtube.com/live/QXdQIFAobHA Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3 presented by Wendy's. It is big game week. We're going big game hunting. Ari and I headed to Ann Arbor for Michigan and Texas on Saturday. And Ari, we're going to preview that game. But first we have something new to talk about. The first SEC availability report has been released. And so all these leagues, because of how much gambling has changed over the last few years, they're all going to do NFL style availability reports. We know the Big Ten is doing them.

The SEC, they're doing them for conference games. So we have the first one because we have the first SEC conference game this weekend between South Carolina and Kentucky. And here you go. You've got exactly out doubtful, questionable, probable, big, long list for Kentucky, a lot of out for Kentucky chip train them obviously out, uh, Demi Sumo. I gotta, I gotta, I'm gonna have to get this name right. Eventually Demi Sumo. I keep wanting to say Demi Sum name right eventually. Demisumo. I keep wanting to say Demisumo Kabong, but that's not it.

That would be an awesome nickname for him. Kongbe. Demisumo Kongbe will be carrying the load on the ground for the Wildcats, along with probably some Brock Vandegrift. But all right, Ari, you've placed a better two in your lifetime. Do we think these are going to make a, yeah. Do we think these are going to make a difference? I mean, they're certainly helpful, you know, when it would have been really, really helpful.

Andy was during COVID the era of which half a team could get ruled out 10 minutes before kickoff and nobody had any idea that that was going on. That was that was the hardest season to place a wager um you know i do think that they will um the thing that i am wondering and i'm assuming is going to happen soon is like once a person is uh questionable like you can start playing games with that because that word doesn't really give you any information right it's like we're not sure if he's going to play will he play will he not play we'll figure it out it kind of puts you back in the same position. But it is good to see that people are on it.

So you have an idea of like, okay, would I still place this bet if this person doesn't go? Or do I really like this because they're probable now? Like, you know, anything that acknowledges injuries in any way I think is helpful because college football has a longstanding history of gamesmanship. And, you know coaches might know that a player isn't playing or is unavailable on Monday and you don't hear about it till 10 minutes before kickoff like that happened all the time so this is certainly something that I think is is necessary given how big of a business um gambling has become in this sport but also uh just transparency in general like my number one thing with college

football that's always like you you know, you always talk about how crazy, stupid and funny the sport is like the paranoia that exists in these coaches rooms is just off the charts. I was once doing a story and I won't tell you who it was or which program it was, but I was at an SEC program doing a recruiting story, and their recruiting coordinator was talking about how they felt like they got their office bugged, and they had to, like, they had, like, debuggers that go through to make sure that there were no listening devices in their office. Like, this is the world we live in, even though 99% of it is imaginary.

I do think that, like, any sort of transparency that can help give fans more information, even if it's not from a gambling standpoint, just to understand where your team is or the best players on your team are, I think is going to be a positive, a net gain for the sport. Yeah. I mean, we've seen in the past where you've had a starting quarterback who has been out all week. Team's known he's been out all all week but nobody's allowed to watch practice

nobody had any clue he doesn't show up because like yeah he was hurt oh well yeah like so yeah there's been a lot of bets lost because of that you know yeah because it wasn't like just small time players like it's like oh your best running back hasn't been practicing all week now as beat reporters have gotten better over the years andy, it's harder to keep that secret. Right. And in the information era of somebody who's walking around campus in a walking boot, like that's on Twitter in 30 seconds, but it does happen still or has happened in the recent past.

And this will be better. So let's talk about this Kentucky South Carolina game before we get into Texas and Michigan. I do want to talk about Kentucky South Carolina because this isouth Carolina game. Before we get into Texas and Michigan, I do want to talk about Kentucky-South Carolina because this is an intriguing game. South Carolina has won two in a row against Kentucky. There has been a lot of back and forth between Mark Stoops and Shane Beamer, maybe not directly,

but certainly across one another's bowels. Last year, Mark Stoops said something before the game. Shane Beamer produced a something before the game shane beamer produced a video after the game mark stoop probably needs to win this game headed into the georgia game but shane beamer needs to win this game re because they went five and seven last year so this is very very intriguing yeah i do think that kentucky has reached the peak or the ceiling of what the program could be and I don't know if that's insulting or not but being a 10-point favorite against a team you know that's as talented as South Carolina in the second week of the season

I think is an indication of like when you just said they need to win when has Kentucky ever needed to win a game like that to me is just a testament of what Mark Stoops has been able to accomplish there. Now, I think that they will win the game. And I think that, you know, we always have these seasons where Kentucky comes out and, you know, starts four or five and oh, and they end up playing Georgia. And then you realize the great divide that's probably un-overcomeable, if that's a word. It's kind of waiting around the corner here for Kentucky, but I do think that they've got a very, very good team with some really important pieces and one of the best players in college football. So you and I, when we were together before, I always said

that Kentucky is the best job in college football because they will build you a statue. If you can win eight games a year, they will pay you like the other guys in the sec who are expected to win national championships. And all you have to do is occasionally win nine or 10 and then just, you know, be reasonably okay. Every year. I think that's changed. I don't think it's the best job in America anymore because of something Mark Stoops did. I think that's changed. I don't think it's the best job in America anymore because of something Mark Stoops did. I think he's made it not the best job in America by sort of thumbing his nose at the fact that he has the best job in America. By going after the Texas A&M job last year, that probably made it where the first time he has one of these losses where the Kentucky fans

are like oh no it's going to be eight and four again now they're going to turn on him because before he was the guy who brought them there he was one of them he's got a bourbon company but now they know he was like oh I think I've hit the ceiling here I'm going to go for this Texas A&M job the Texas A&M trustees revolted they're like now we're not going to guarantee mark stoops the same amount we guarantee jimbo fisher so we're going to go for somebody else it's it's unbelievable single t in the chat you sort of ruined the kentucky job though everybody knows that now so it's my fault uh you know what's interesting is we did say that it's the best job in america because of the success to failure ratio and what would happen and i understand that fan

temperament has changed to a certain degree i agree with what you just said but i think the real question here is what would have to happen for k to fire him? Like, I think that fans. No, nothing. They know him so much. So what I'm saying. So to me, that's why it hasn't changed, because he could exist in Lexington for a very long time. Having, you know, below average.

Seasons and I'm talking four or five win seasons for Kentucky, which used to be better than the norm, and still be completely fine. I think that when you start getting into tough jobs, it's the ones where you get fired very quickly for results that are probably more in line with where your program is. That's from best to worst jobs in America. That's why I thought Tennessee was one of the worst jobs in America before because they anticipated or wanted you to win 10, 11, 12 games in year two and where the program was at before Josh Heupel got there. I wasn't necessarily sure that was possible. And talk about the fans and the pressure cooker.

That would be the hardest job to me in America, or one of them, it stands out to me. Kentucky, he can go to bed in his beautiful million three million dollar home in his uh you know goose down situation in his bed and never have to fret about whether or not he's gonna have a job when he wakes up in the surrounded by bottles from his own distillery yes yeah and honestly who cares like what the people in rural Kentucky say from their basement anyway right right? Like that's a joke, guys. Don't say that. I'm joking.

I'm joking. Yeah. But seriously, like, listen, we all know that being a college football coach, getting things thrown in your face from fans or being a topic on Twitter and things that people say is part of the job. On the list of things that would make me change my mind, I think fan sentiment is probably at the bottom of that list. I think that the one thing that I would say that would make me change my mind,

and this is a different way to look at it, Andy, is it takes a certain type of person to become comfortable at the ceiling. So like Mark Stoops can exist at Kentucky for the next 20 years and go eight and four and be fine and be a coach that's revered and loved there. But I think that the coach's mentality is competitive. And when you have conquered something, you're their number one thing that they're told to do just with their sense and their inherent nature is to go accomplish something bigger and better. So the Kentucky job would be the best job in the world for somebody who has a temperament that wants to just revel in the ceiling for 20 years, even though the ceiling isn't championships. But I think that Mark Stoops is already proven that he's not that type

of person. So from that standpoint, money and security at a place that, you know, you've already achieved everything that you're going to achieve is great. But for the coach's mentality, that's not necessarily, I think, the legacy or the place that they would want to exist for a few more decades. So from that standpoint, I think that like, it's so good that it's boring, which makes it not as good. Does that make sense? Yep. So single T who's blaming me for this,

by the way, it does feel like in the last four years, since you started saying it's the best job, the feeling of eight and four has changed from being a success to being just okay. They're good being eight and four, but kind of wanting more. I think that's natural for fan bases. I always talk about how South Carolina had that period with Steve Spurrier, where they won 11 games, three years in a row, they beat Clemson five years in a row. And that had never happened in the history of the program before. And suddenly people started

thinking that was a birthright and it's not and so you what happens a lot to andy is is that sorry not to talk over you i've been doing that a lot i gotta work on it but he is a coach who has figured out a plan executed that plan so well um that it's gotten to this point but at the same time if you look at their schedule this year they're playing georgia they're playing on the road at old mits they're playing at florida say what you want about that game they've got a much better auburn team at home than they're at tenn They're playing on the road at Ole Miss. They're playing at Florida. Say what you want about that game. They've got a much better Auburn team at home than they're at Tennessee, at Texas, and host Louisville.

What are we supposed to do with that? You know what I mean? It's like eight and four on that schedule with the Kentucky team that he's built I think is a successful season. So I think every year that changes, but I think that there is a yawning nature. And like Mark Stoops is somebody that I covered when I was in college. He was the defensive coordinator, Arizona back in the 2005 to nine range. And he was there. I've known him now

for, for 20 years. And I think that he has it in him where he wants to, I think it's the same thing that, that Brian Kelly experienced at Notre Dame to a i think it's the same thing that that um brian kelly experienced at notre dame to a less it's like a more uh closer extent notre dame made the playoff and was in games against alabama but i think brian kelly is at lsu because he wanted to win national championships because he realized the ceiling at his program at least the way he ran it i had already reached it there so like i think that mark stoops has been existing at kentucky ceiling for longer than brian kelly was existing at notre dame's and at a certain point your your heart yearns for more yep i i'm looking in the chat and everybody is

dead certain that kentucky's gonna win this game i i am not like that is a big number that nine and a half. I am not sure. Sure. Not sure Kentucky is going to cover or win. So this is, this is a must watch. I'm telling you right now, but the other must watch in the afternoon is the early game. The one we're going to be at in Ann Arbor, Texas and Michigan. So this is your official Texas, Michigan preview presented by PrizePix. We got to talk about this game, Ari. It's a situation where Michigan is favored. I'm sorry, Texas is favored. Michigan, we don't exactly know what their offense is. We've seen it once against Fresno State. We saw Davis Warren. And Texas, we know what they are. It's the same

offense, same quarterback, different receivers, but they've just reloaded. They're bringing Ryan Wingo as a superstar freshman. They bring in Isaiah Bond. They've got everything they need to move the ball. We wonder up the middle of their defense, how are they going to do against the Michigan team that likes to run the ball and likes to get after you? But I think it's very easy to just say, well, I think Texas is going to be too explosive for Michigan. So I actually went back and watched all of Davis Warren snaps, all his dropbacks from the Fresno state game. And it was interesting when I came, first of all, Colston Loveland is their most dynamic target.

It's not close. Like they tried to get some other guys involved, try to do some things where they got, you know, Samaj Morgan, maybe got him the ball in stride. So he can try to get some yak yards, but Colston Loveland is the guy who can get open every time. So I'm just, well, since we're, this is a prize picks preview, I'm going to tell you right now, Colston Loveland's prize picks projection for this game is 41 and a half receiving yards. If Michigan has any chance at all, it's going to be more than that. And way more than

that because he is Davis Warren security blanket. He's the one who can get open and I don't care how good the Texas defense is. He can get open against them. So that's the one. And for, for those of you who don't know prize picks best daily fantasy game in America, you download the app, use the code staples, play $5, you get $50 instantly, win or lose, and you pick squares. And so you pick as few as two squares. You can pick as many as five squares. The more you pick, the higher the potential payout. I'm telling you right now that if you think Michigan's going to win this game, then you go more than on Colston Loveland 41 and a half, because he is going to have to do that. And I think the, I think you probably have to go more than Davis Warren. I believe it's one 50, one 50.5. I think you're gonna have to go more than

that too. The question is, can they do that against Texas's defense's defense i mean when i looked at the numbers andy the loveland number was way way way lower than i would have ever like if you had to like you know like we play that game it's like pick the line make the line um when you're we're talking about game spreads but we're talking about price picks like make the number um didn't he have like 90 receiving yards and eight or nine receptions last week? Like he is their number one target. So in a game like this at home, especially where we're in a situation where, I mean, at least I am worried about the type of quarterback play we're going to get

from Michigan as a whole this year, the security blanket getting to 50 yards, which would be over or be more than that number much more um seems to be kind of like a layup to me yeah i because even if they lose this game i see him going more than than 41 and a half receiving yards because clearly he is davis warren's favorite target i mean i don't need a lot of drop. I don't need to watch much to know that. Now, my question to you is, how does Michigan win this game?

And I will say from watching those dropbacks, just watching their pass game, they're better when they come out of those condensed formations. When they're in those formations where you are dead certain they're're going to run the ball and they're sneaking Loveland out and they've got the receivers kind of bunched in there and they come, you know, spreading out as after the play begins. I think they're better doing that than going four wide or five wide. Like when they go four wide, I don't feel like they're pretty vulnerable because I don't think they have a lot of receivers that scare you. Like when Texas goes four wide, that's scary as hell. Right. I don't feel that way about Michigan. I feel like Michigan's got

to run the ball well with Mullings and Donovan Edwards, and then use those formations that are, that are, they're having success within the run game to then pass out of those. Yeah. So, you know, being here in Texas, uh, I am surrounded by a lot of Texas fans that are kind of in my circle. Now people from daycare, uh, people that work with my wife, some of the friends that I have are, are, are big Texas guys. And I think the general sentiment is that Texas is going to not just win this game but win by two or three scores that's what people are expecting and the thing that I say back to them is one I just got done underestimating Michigan for an entire season that ended up culminating

in a national championship and then two Andy is if you were to do a draft of the best overall players in this game, I think that there is a real case to be made, and maybe this is too far, but the top three players might be too far, would be on Michigan's defense. But certainly the top two players in the game overall are on Michigan's defense. So when the top two players in the game overall are on Michigan's

defense. So when you asked me how was Michigan going? We sure Kelvin banks. Yeah. Wouldn't be your number two pick behind Will Johnson. Are we sure about that? It's I mean, you're talking about Mason Graham and Kelvin banks.

It's a tough one. Let's line them up at midfield and let them fight for it. I don't know. Kelvin banks would probably be two or three, depending on – because Will Johnson, I think we can both agree, is clear and above number one. He would be number one. But, yeah, my question is, is Kelvin Banks the left tackle for Texas

or one of the 2D tackles for Michigan, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant? The crazy thing about this is all of these humans that we've just mentioned could be picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft next year if things go a certain way this season. The point really, whether or not you want to say Banks is 2 or 3 or 4 or whatever, the point is that Michigan, in my opinion, probably does have three of the four best players on the field and three of them are on defense. So how does Michigan win the game?

By stopping the run, especially considering the fact that we know that Texas lost an important piece of their backfield in preseason and just mucking the game up. Like if this game goes over, I think that Michigan will have lost by two scores. But if this game is under and Michigan creates some extra possessions, is able to run the football, gets Loveland involved, part of me in my gut feels like Texas should win by a million. But my gut's telling me that Michigan is still a very, very good football team

and is able to keep, at least at home in their first game since winning a national championship, a game against a program that has historically played in close games that shouldn't be close, pretty close. So my brain's telling me texas by 10 but there's just something in my gut that's saying that michigan's going to be able to keep this game close well and like if you're going on the prize picks course and you're looking at the the texas receivers like i have a hard time deciding who i would go with it's hard last week they had four guys with over 50

receiving yards ryan wingo isaiah bond jonte cook and matthew golden matthew golden caught two touchdown passes isaiah bond caught one ryan wingo led them in receiving yardage he's the freshman who may be the best of this bunch when all is said and done and so i don't know who to pick and And then Scott in the chat has an interesting comment. So the unknown, we still don't know what Michigan has. Texas won in a flashy way last week. Michigan played their cards close. I'm going to push back on that.

I do think Michigan did play their cards close. I think Michigan probably was very vanilla against Fresno State, was not trying to show too much. But I will argue that Texas also was not trying to show too much against Colorado State. They didn't win in a flashy way. They're just that much better than Colorado State. They didn't do anything exotic. So here's the thing that I want to ask you, Andy. You're probably more having played the game technical with X's and O's and understanding the actual sports intricacies. Will Johnson is the best corner in college football.

There's no question about it. Just watching him play is awe-inspiring. But I think Texas probably has the receiving core a year after having a receiving core that could probably most stack up with what Ohio State puts on the field every Saturday, right? Agreed. probably most stack up with what Ohio State puts on the field every Saturday, right? So if you have one corner that is as good as Will Johnson, but you have Jontae Cook and Bond and all these guys, do you wonder how much a person like Johnson can be neutralized

when he can only cover one person? And do you fear that Michigan won't be able to stop Texas through the air? Because that is the one thing that I keep going to in my brain of like, this game could be ugly for Michigan because they might just be able to throw all over. So that is my fear because when you have a team that has one really great receiver and then you have one really great corner, you just have that corner follow him all over the field. Right.

You can't pick just one with Texas. So basically, you're probably leaving Will Johnson on one side. Now, there is an advantage to that where that side is essentially taken away from the offense. The offense is probably not even going to look there. So it allows the rest of the defense to concentrate on a smaller portion of the field. And that is helpful.

Now what Michigan's going to have to do, and the question here, remember we talked about those two interior guys on the defensive line, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, both of them are awesome. Also the edge guys, Josiah Stewart, Kenneth Grant, both of them are awesome. Also the, the edge guys, Josiah Stewart, you know, Derek Moore, those guys, like they've got to get after Quinn Ewers. What I think is interesting because I remember when, when Michigan hired Wink Martindale as a defensive coordinator, remember he was in the NFL for a long time, long time Ravens defensive coordinator. And then he was the Giants defensive coordinator recently.

But at the Ravens, he's the one who trained Mike McDonald, who is Michigan's D coordinator. He's now the Seahawks head coach and Jesse mentor, who was last year's Michigan D coordinator. And I said, it's like losing Eminem and 50 cent and hiring Dr. Dre, basically. But there is a difference schematically between Wink Martindale and those two pupils of Wink Martindale. Wink Martindale will light, will heat you up a lot more. He will blitz a lot more. And that, I'm not saying that is necessarily a positive. I'm saying he will take more risks. And so it's really on Quinn Ewers to handle those risks and make Michigan pay when they gamble.

If Quinn Ewers does get heated up, if he gets sacked, if he gets pressured and throws a pick or two, then Wink Martindale's plan is working. But it really will be up to how Quinn Ewers handles that. Andy, do you ever dream about college football? Always. Okay. I had a dream, but like college football analysis, because I had a dream last night about this

game and I woke up and maybe it was a revelation. I don't know what that means. But I wrote a column over the weekend saying we should have seen or kind of saw what happened to Florida State coming, right? And you read it. You helped me craft it. Where are we with Michigan, a team that has not recruited at a historically high level. Now they're, they're much better. I think than Florida state has been the last four years,

Florida state was in the twenties by and large. And I think Michigan's more of the tens. So, so that's better. But when we are talking about expectation, they are facing a juggernaut recruiting team that has accentuated their talent through the portal like isaiah bond is on their team for instance they they didn't need to go get him the guy who

won the iron bull last year for alabama is on their team despite the fact that they already have elite level recruits and other players at that position to replace ad mitchell and xavier worthy could saturday's game be the first sign of like, hey, Michigan won the national championship. They did something incredible that nobody expected, and they did a good job developing their five-star players and hitting the portal last year. But from the way I used to understand college football, you had to recruit at a certain level to be very good year over year so let me ask you this trying to see it first before writing about it after because this is a podcast and we're supposed to talk things through yeah why do we think that Michigan

will be good enough to potentially win the big Ten this year when they have not recruited at that level. They lost 80% of their roster and have an unknown at the quarterback position and a first-year head coach. There's a lot there where if we were analyzing this in 2018, where you're like, they're cooked. You know what I mean? Granted, I do know that Michigan does have those three studs on

defense they have Donovan Edwards on offense I know they have Colston Loveland at tight end I know they've got pieces and I'm not saying they're going to be Florida State bad by any stretch of the imagination just don't go make that up in your in your imagination and tweet at me about it because that's not what I'm saying but should we be erring on the side of caution here when it comes to this Michigan team? Okay, so here's the thing. I think Alabama and Georgia have spoiled us in terms of being able to reload so well after national championships. And we just assume that anybody who wins a national championship is going to be as talented the next year as they were the year before. That's not usually how it happens. Usually for 100 years, a team would win a national championship

because it had a special group of players. They got older at the same time, more experienced at the same time, and they had a critical mass of veteran talent in a certain year. And then those guys left, and then they built it back up. That doesn't mean they fell off the table, but it means they usually took a little step back after winning the national title this feels more traditional like that that said potentially three first round draft picks on this michigan defense next year in next year's draft like there may be some guys that that are first rounders in pre in future year drafts, but three, potentially, in next year's draft.

Still very meaningful. Very meaningful. But yeah, the offense is a big question mark. The offensive line is a big question mark. Fresno State game, they had a situation where there was a stunt in the middle. The right guard clearly thought he

had help from the center, but the center was helping the left guard, and they basically let a defensive tackle walk through and sack Davis Warren. The right guard clearly thought he had help from the center, but the center was helping the left guard. And he just, they basically let a defense tackle walk through and sack Davis Warren. Like that communication stuff doesn't happen when you've been playing together a long time. Like it, you know, you know,

what's whatever, what the other guys are doing. So that's the sort of thing that, that will happen as they rebuild, reload. And that's, you know, that's, that's the sort of thing that will happen as they rebuild, reload. And that's the risk you take. So this game is going to be so much fun. I cannot wait.

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Then you only got to figure out one more if you want to go home a winner. So download the prize picks app, play five, get 50 instantly with the code staples. All right. All right. It is time for dear Andy. And we got some great questions,

but I actually want to, we got a good one in the chat. So I'm going to throw this one out here first. Okay. It's from John Paul Bacon. Why is Oregon rated so much higher than the other former PAC 12 teams when Washington beat them in three straight games in the last two years? And John, John Paul has another question about Washington up here. So I can tell where, where he's going with this. So we're going to ignore USC, which we think is better. Um,

and explain Washington. I don't know that John Paul has followed Washington that much since the national championship game. It's not the same team. They have two starters back, a new coach. Yeah, they beat Oregon twice last year, but they in no way resemble the team that beat Oregon twice last year. It's a completely new team. I think Jed Fish understands it's a bit of a rebuild in this situation. It doesn't mean they're going to be terrible, but no one is expecting them to compete in the Big Ten, including probably everybody in the building. it on three is that they have done such a good job with the graphics and the promotion of the show

that we're reaching more people just naturally than I used to in previous jobs, which exposes me to a lot more comments and a lot more thoughts from people that otherwise might not have seen the work that I was doing, which is great, but also terrifying. The thing that I don't understand about people is that if you read the question you just put up in the screen here, they're saying, why is Oregon rated higher when they've lost in the past? The past isn't what we're looking to accomplish here, guys. Rankings are about projecting the future. They're not about overanalyzing the past. And I understand that the past at times can help you understand and is revelatory for what happens in the future.

But when I look at Oregon and what they have on their roster and what they brought back and what they brought in, I'm not thinking about Washington. I'm not thinking about USC. I'm not thinking about USC. I'm thinking about Oregon and what I think that this team has assembled and what they can accomplish. And this happened last year when I thought Texas would go to the playoff. Texas had 20 years of evidence that they were going to blow it somehow, but it's not my job to try to predict or think, well, they always blew it before, so they're going to blow it now. It's to look at the roster.

It's to look at the coach and the schedule and to come to a reasonable expectation for what this team can accomplish. And Oregon had a really tough game against Idaho. The fact that they played a four-quarter game, I remember telling you they were in the fourth quarter in a one-possession game when you were getting the studio ready in your house, Andy, and you're like, what? I can't explain why that happened. I don't know if that's going to be a preview of what we're

going to get out of this Oregon team, if it was just a really bad opener. But what I do know is what they've done in the offseason with the assembly of this roster and a coach that I think is on the verge of breaking out and becoming one of the stars of the sport, I think that they're appropriately ranked at five. And guess what? If they aren't, it's going to happen to come out very soon and that'll be fixed. So like, just so you know, and I don't know how you are, Andy, when I am ranking teams, I spend zero minutes considering what happened last year or five years ago or 10 years ago. Zero. Yeah, I think you're right. One more from Dalton, and I'm going to answer it quick

because we just talked a bunch about Michigan. But what proof is there that Sharon Moore is a better coach? Those games last year weren't game plans he implemented. Harbaugh did that. Moore just stood on the sideline at game time. He was calling the plays while managing, do we go forward on fourth down? How do we call these plays?

How do we string these together? Like he made adjustments in the Penn State game that won them the game. He made fourth down calls in the Ohio State game that won them the game. Anybody who thinks Sharon Moore just stood on the sideline has no clue how football actually works. So sorry, Dalton. That was a really stupid question. But here comes a very smart question from our friend Tim. Hi, Andy.

I'm a huge fan. You and Ari, the best college football podcast, and I am very excited that you're back together. I have two questions. We'll start with the first one, Ari. The last three big games in which a Big Ten team has played an SEC team, Alabama-Michigan, Texas-Washington, LSU-USC, the Big Ten team has won. Is that indicative of, Michigan, Texas, Washington, LSU, USC. The Big Ten team has won. Is that indicative of the Big Ten moving closer to the SEC, or is that just a blip?

Okay. Well, thank you, first of all, for the kind words, Tim. But we're cherry picking a little bit here because, one, Texas and Washington were not SEC and Big Ten teams when they played. But I will give you that. Because you and I both know if Texas had won the Sugar Bowl, the SEC office would have absolutely claimed that. Like 100%. So I will give you that one. I will give you that one. But are we pretending that the Ole Miss-Penn State Peach Bowl and the Ohio State-Missouri cotton bowl didn't happen because they happened

and the sec teams were quite a bit better in those games. Well, let me ask you this, Andy, how far of a gap do you think there actually is at this moment? Well, and I have some numbers for you because I think it's, I think it's somewhat instructive. Uh, I am giving the Big Ten the Texas-Washington game. So I started on January 1st, 2015, which I believe you covered a game of great import between a Big Ten and SEC team that day. That's the day that Alabama played Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl and Zeke blasted through the Alabama defense and Ohio State won. So since that day, regular season and postseason, the Big Ten is 20 and 27 against the SEC. So it's not super lopsided, but the times they've met when it really matters. So between that Ohio State win against Alabama

in that Sugar Bowl and the Michigan win against Alabama in that sugar bowl and the Michigan win against Alabama in the Rose bowl earlier this year, the big 10 was Owen for in college football playoff games against the sec. And we got outscored 166 to 76. And I'm not giving, I'm not giving the sec Alabama over Washington in that case, I'm leaving Washington in the pack 12 for that. So those were the games that it was being judged on. So the fact that Michigan was able to overcome that, beat Alabama, that's huge. The fact that USC beat LSU, also huge. I do think at the top, the Big Ten and the SEC are not all that different. I think the sec is deeper i think that the sec has more programs that are consistently

good i think that the big 10 has a lot of programs at the top that can be very good but haven't been like i think that what really hinges the big 10's chances in this scenario is that they have a program emerge that can match Ohio State or be in Ohio State's realm from a year-to-year-to-year-to-year basis, which I think is going to bleed well into the next question. But USC is kind of in a transition period right now. Penn State has been very good traditionally, but they have not been great traditionally. Michigan just won the national title and is amazing and beat Alabama on the way. But is that a one-year thing or is Michigan going to have a sustained run of success

for 10 years where they can beat Ohio State and compete for a national championship eight out of those 10 years? That remains to be seen. I think that the SEC has a bigger, probably financial commitment in the NIL space when you're talking about teams four through eight than the Big Ten does, which is where I think the difference lies. But if Ohio State's the only program in the Big Ten that has a chance or is expected to compete for a national championship before the season every single year, then the Big Ten does not compare. We need other programs

in the Big Ten to step up and be as committed and consistent as Ohio State's been. And the funniest part about this conversation is Ohio State hasn't won a national title for a decade. So like Michigan is the flag carrier here. so what we get out of penn state michigan usc and washington and oregon um is crucial to the way that we view it because i don't think that the gap is big between the two but i do agree with you that it's deeper because when you start getting into what the big 10 needs is wisconsin yeah they need wisconsin to be like tennessee or they need you know to, to spend like Tennessee, which is what I thought was going to happen when Luke Fickle took the job because I didn't

think he was going to take a job like that unless they had that commitment. But we'll see. Because like Wisconsin plays Alabama next week. We'll see exactly how far apart they are. And so I am curious about that. But I do think at the time. You should do a video eventually on the show. Like Georgia and Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan. And go down the list and see how.

I haven't done that yet. That's an important exercise. Yeah, and I think what happens is you get into Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU. And that's where the SEC sort of starts the distance itself but I think at the very top it's very similar and you can actually not be sure that LSU is the second best team in the Big Ten like when you go look at like who in the Big Ten would I would not make that case this year no no I'm not saying on the field I mean program wise like there's a difference between between rankings of the actual season that we're in and program rankings which is what we should

do it on three two every after every year we should do program rankings, but like, are you, I know I'm just giving it away, but I really, really like that. Actually, I think that's Bill Landis's original idea. So it's, it's stolen by proxy. Um, LSU is a program like you're not buying Penn state over their program, right? You're not buying Wisconsin over that program. You might not even be buying Michigan over that program. Michigan, I know, just won the national championship, but LSU isn't that far removed from one either. LSU is three this century.

If LSU is five or six in the SEC, they might be number two in the Big Ten. Now, Oregon and USC and Michigan and Penn State, there's a lot of potential there, but based on what the program is. And I'm a Big Ten dude. I lived in Big Ten country for a third of my life. I think you're the SEC guy. I'm the Big Ten guy. But I do think that from top to bottom,

if LSU is five right now, that's a pretty scary proposition for what the SEC brings to the table. Yeah, yeah. I like the fact that it's, it's getting more fun, but Michigan has to Michigan in the middle has, or not Michigan, the big 10 in the middle needs to act like the SEC middle does. And then we can have this conversation. All right. Next one comes from, from Tay who apparently learned nothing last week. If Samford beats Florida, I will drink a bottle of my own urine.

Did we learn nothing from at 321 Noel, who promised to eat dog poop if Boston College beat Florida State and then Boston College beat Florida State and he deleted all of his social media? He did reactivate his Twitter account to say, y'all, I'm not eating dog poop, which coward, coward. But Tay, I mean, like I get it. It's sterile and you like the taste, but the last time Sanford came to Florida field, they dropped a 50 burger on the Gators. That was Dan Mullen's penultimate game. Florida won, I think, 70 to 52 or something like that. And it was kind of a track meet for a while. I don't think this Sanford team, which lost to West Georgia, which was playing its first Division I game last week, I don't think this Sanford team, but you're going to see DJ Lagway in his first collegiate start.

So there you go. Florida better not lose this game. I think Florida will change coaches if they lose this game. I feel safe saying that. I don't know if Tay will drink pee, but I am sure that Florida would change coaches if they lost this game. I think Tay also went the easier route. I don't want to play the would you rather game right here, but I think that drinking your own pee would be easier than excrement from an animal.

Probably. If I didn't say it was out of red. Choose your own adventure. But if I think we should get this guy's information and address, you know, if you want to you want to make the guarantee, then we'll be about it. Like we'll we'll find you. You can't just delete your Twitter and run off into the abyss of the internet.

Like we're, you know what? I'm going to try to find out who this guy is and where he lives. Well, and, and I mean, not every Florida fan lives in Florida, but yeah, most of them do. So I probably live somewhat close to him.

I know I could probably just knock on it. Okay. I've got a specimen jar right here for you. It's time to pay up. All the Florida fans are like, please God. They never would have imagined a loss to Sanford. Also because it's Sanford

and what happened the last time. But they never would have imagined that before the Miami game. And now after the Miami game, everything's on the table for florida fans they're like there's no depth at this point that's too low in their minds so i don't think that that uh if i were a florida fan i would bet something that high as stakes on this i I think that Florida is going to win. I'd be very surprised if they didn't, but there's also like checkout alert here too.

Don't bet your house. Don't threaten to drink bodily fluids. Just don't. There's nothing to gain. That's the thing I don't understand. You're only like putting up some terrible penalty, but you don't have anything to gain for it. I mean, this is like one of the stupid bets we would do on this.

By the way, chat, have you come up with a bet for us yet? We're not, there will be no human waste involved in our bets. So I can, let me put that in your minds right now, but come up with a bet for us.

All right, let's move on to this question from Mark to be upfront. I am from Cincinnati. So obviously I am an Ohio state hater, but my question is, what would it take for Ohio state to have a drop off to mediocrity for a period like other blue bloods have every blue blood has gone through it, but Ohio state somehow hasn't. And I need it to happen. Okay. This is a great one, Ari, because you you you did cover that program for 10 years and I've always said they're the most recession-proof program in college football Oklahoma's the other one one that's that's close but Oklahoma did have that down period in the mid to late 90s Ohio State really has never had one

yeah in 2016 when I was beat writing with Doug Lalay maurice and bill landis we did a series called indestructible um meaning ohio state could be potentially immune from the prolonged down periods that you've seen every other blue blood go through and i think the main reason for that is, first of all, they have a very unique recruiting advantage in that they have a pretty deep talent state all to themselves. And I know that Cincinnati is a P5 team now, and there's a bunch of Mac teams in there. But if there's a top 100 player in Ohio, I think you could count on your hand, one hand, how many times Ohio State lost a player with an Ohio State offer from the state of Ohio during the Urban Meyer era. And it happened very infrequently during the Jim Trestle era. If a player is in Ohio and they're good enough to play at Ohio State, they're going to Ohio State.

And that's part of the reason why LSU has been so good over the years, too, because they've got a similar advantage of being the only power five team in their state. But there are four ways that I think that it could happen. And I asked Mark D'Antonio in 2016 at Big Ten Media Days what it would look like for Ohio State to lose six games, three years in a row. And the guy laughed at me. It was just like he cackled in my face like that's how ridiculous at the time it was but here are the four different ways that we outlined it in the story and then i think we wrote four different stories about these things but one ncaa sanctions um and serious ones you know ones that reduce scholarship limits and and postseason play which will never happen again so you can you can eliminate that

one but they did because the NCAA is not giving those out anymore and they did have a losing season in 2011 as a result of that so again this story was written in 2006 should have never played in that gator bowl could have been 500 yeah 2016 so take it with a grain of salt. I was written almost 10 years ago now. The second thing was bad recruiting, hiring a coach or putting yourself in a position where you start recruiting number 15, 14, 16, 20, and then injuries happen, transfers happen and things go wrong. That can't happen. So the other byproduct of that would be three, which is other programs invading your territory in the recruiting space. So like if Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Michigan all decided Ohio was a prime territory for them and they started taking away the layup talents that Ohio State gets to add to their roster every year, that would be a problem. And the thing that you have to consider about the layup talents that Ohio State gets is in recruiting, time is a currency. So if Ohio State has a five-star quarterback like they do from the state of Ohio committed in next year's class in Tavian St. Clair already, think about the amount of time Ohio State has saved and how much they would have spent trying to get a five-star quarterback from

somewhere else during that same period of time. So not only do you get the player, you also get to bank the time and the currency that you would be spending on recruiting somebody in that position to bolster your roster in other places. So I think that would be my number one thing of like, if all of a sudden the state of Ohio, for whatever reason, was no longer the layup for their talent accumulation. And then, of course, number three would be bad hires. And this is kind of interesting because I'm nowhere near the fire Ryan Day camp. Now, if they lose to Michigan this year, that would be a completely different discussion because you can't lose.

Is it? That's just more like take another high- high paying job where they'll appreciate you, Ryan Day camp if they lose Michigan, right? Yeah. Well, yeah, I think that. If Ohio State were put into a position going into next year where they needed to find a new head coach for whatever reason, that could mean Ryan Day taking a serious job. I'm not saying fired. And then they go hire somebody that thought about recruiting like Dan Mullen. Then I think that there is a chance that –

I still think Ohio State would recruit really well because of that inherent advantage. But you've had very recruiting-oriented type people in the building. And I think Ohio State's NIL fund has clearly spoken for itself in terms of what they're willing to do. And maybe recruiting is not as important as it was five years ago anymore, because you can still go get Quinshawn Junkins in the portal if you don't have a running back. But I do think that you still have to have a certain air about you when it comes to recruiting because Ohio State's been too talented to ever lose six games because the schedule that they played featured 10 games that were 20-point underdogs. Now, I'm going to add a new one that wasn't on that list because that was a 2016 scenario.

The new Big 10 is tricky losing six games and the new big 10 is a hell of a lot easier than it was five years ago so you know you have to be like if usc gets really good and oregon gets really good michigan stays what they are penn state gets better like ohio state has to be on their A game or losing two games or three games and having down years is probably more possible. Because then you're like a Nebraska or Wisconsin having a good year away from it being just murder of row. Yeah. And they've never had a schedule where they had more than three teams that could physically beat them, even on down years.

So like now they can probably play schedules where there's five or six teams that you could lose to if you played poorly and that changes the calculus a little bit of like that never having a below 500 year for more than two or three years at a time for the last hundred years all right let us go to this question from at jazz man 279 i i find this so fascinating dear andy rate the heat level of this take. USC has upgraded their QB position this year. He's not more talented, but he's an upgrade. This is Miller Moss over Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. And here's the thing.

This is not molten lava. This is not as crazy of a take as you probably think. This is probably Wendy's saucy nugs, spicy ghost pepper, right? It's hot, but it's hot for a general audience. It's not going to,

to melt you. Chase Daniel, the, the former Missouri star, longtime NFL backup, actually made this point the other day on Twitter too, and everybody went nuts. I'm never taking Miller Moss over Caleb Williams if you give me a chance to draft them, but here's what I will say. Miller Moss not being able to do some of the things that Caleb Williams is physically capable of forces him to operate within the strict confines of Lincoln Riley's offense.

And he gets the ball out exactly when Lincoln Riley wants him to. And that produces a pretty effective offense, at least through two starts. Not playing. I'm not going any farther than that. I'm not playing this game with you. Come on. If, okay, I'll play the game with you.

It's a podcast. You're my buddy. If Caleb Williams was the quarterback on Saturday, they would have smoked LSU. What are we talking about? What are we doing? Like, are we really doing this? Caleb Williams is the most dynamic, exciting quarterback.

They're saying he's too good to be good like is that the argument is that what we're doing right now i knew i could get you there i knew i could get you there i knew that's molten lava that's nonsense like i understand the thought process of like he is so good that he doesn't have to stay within the confines of the play call but it's like you think that usc's offense is going to be more functional this year than the one that lit up scoreboards every single week the last two years their offense wasn't the problem their offense was awesome but they didn't like they they were terrible against notre dame and caleb williams was terrible against

and i'm not saying that if you think miller moss is going to throw four touchdown passes a game for all season then we'll have this discussion at the end of the year. I don't think there's anything that you could say to convince me of this. No, I think you're right. But, you know, there have been situations where, and it's Caleb Williams is the wrong person to have this discussion about because he's an otherworldly talent. And I think the problem for Caleb Williams last year was USC's talent on offense was not as good as it needed to be. And I think they're better now. Like the guys that were young guys last year who didn't quite know what they were doing, now they know what they're doing.

That's going to benefit Miller Moss. But Caleb Williams the first year had Jordan Addison, who is a very nice, reliable target, who was also a very high NFL draft pick. I think that's more of the issue there. But they also were a half a football away from you giving me a thousand dollars too. So like, even when you add Jordan Addison, they, they were on the precipice of making the 14 field. So it worked. Like I would like to hear like, or see what Caleb Williams looked like with this set of skill and i know a

lot of these guys were on the team last year but like i've got a feeling that we're on the verge of seeing deuce robinson arrive in a way that he hadn't arrived yet zach branch arrive in a way that he hasn't arrived yet like there is nothing that anybody could ever say to make me think usc is a better football team this year because they've got Miller Moss instead of Caleb Williams. I understand the thought process of trying to get there, and I'm not saying that USC can't even make the playoff or be very good this year. But to go as – in sports, it's always this person's better than the last person.

And it's like sometimes y'all play the game, not playing it with Caleb Williams. Anybody, we're not playing it with Caleb Williams. There have been situations in the past, like when Kyle Trask replaced Felipe Franks at Florida. Kyle Trask, from a metric standpoint, from a measurable standpoint, not as talented as Felipe Franks.

But he was so much better at processing and getting the ball out on time. He was a much better quarterback for them. But Felipe Franks is not anywhere near the same universe as Caleb Williams. Like I will take Caleb Williams every time over almost every other quarterback who's ever existed. So that's, that,

that one is not, but that's why it's, it's Wendy's saucy nugs, spicy ghost pepper pot. It's very hot, but I can, I can see where you're going with it. I can see where you're going with it. I can see where you're going with it. All right, one more.

From Jowjafan, let me see what this person did there. Which college football head coach looks more like a grown-up Ralphie from A Christmas Story? Is it Texas A&M's Mike Elko or LSU's Brian Kelley? For those of you who are not watching now, you're not seeing the photos that this person put up, but it is Ralphie from the video box of A Christmas Story. You put it back up.

Screenshots of Elko and Brian Kelly from their most recent games. So Elko, because he's wearing the glasses, I mean, it is, like if you put the horn-rimmed Ralphie glasses on Elko, absolutely. he's wearing the glasses i mean it is like if you put the horn rim ralphie glasses on elko absolutely he is like give him a red rider bb gun right now uh i need to see brian kelly in glasses because i actually have a feeling if you put the glasses on brian kelly it's even closer of a resemblance uh i that is really funny i didn't see that before, and that was a genuine reaction. I did not send it to you on purpose. Elko looks just like him in that picture. It's unbelievable.

Do you think Elko used the Queen Mother of all bad words at any point on Saturday? I think he did it a lot, probably. Oh, man, that's so funny only i didn't say fudge um i gotta level with you here pal and i don't know if this is gonna start off the season on a bad take i've never seen that movie uh ari wasserman has never seen a christmas story i was that really doesn't shock me i've seen every other Christmas movie. I've just never gotten around to seeing that one. I mean, I love Christmas movies. You don't have to be...

I mean, you can be in the tribe and enjoy the Christmas spirit. December, we're going to do a random ranking of Ari's favorite Christmas movies. I am dying. I'll tell you, I'm going to give you a number one right now. Jingle all the way. Oh my god. That's a hot take like always but that movie is that is the miller moss is a better quarterback than caleb williams that movie is this movie takes

that's it's it's an incredible movie i mean think about it you got sinbad and arnold in it man come man. Come on. Who told you you could eat my cookies? I had no idea we'd be going here today. No clue whatsoever. But good Lord have mercy. That's where we end it right there. That's where we end it today. Ari, when next we speak, you'll be picking me up from the airport.

We'll be headed to the big house to watch the Longhorns and the Wolverines. And when next we see you beautiful people, probably be right after that game, but also 1130 PM Eastern time, post-game show. We break all of Saturday's action down. Texas, Michigan, South Carolina, Kentucky,

Tennessee, NC State, Nebraska, Colorado. It's going to be beautiful. Put that cookie down now.