Andy & Ari On3 - College Football 2026 Win Totals DEEP DIVE: Can Indiana REPEAT? How will Alabama perform?

Episode Date: August 3, 2026

As Andy & Ari welcome in our brand new presenting sponsor in Polymarket, the fellas run through the win total markets on a number of prominent college football teams. Watch here as the guys utilize Polymarket to gauge the 2026 regular season win totals. Which market do you like the most?   (0:00) On Today’s Episode (0:56) Presenting Sponsor (2:51) Intro: New Sponsor (8:40) Win Totals: Indiana (14:52) Alabama’s Win Totals (20:50) Auburn (26:08) Florida (32:35) Optimistic Andy on Florida (38:02) Michigan’s Win total (49:48) Protect College Sports Act LATEST (1:05:25) Tommy Castellanos Ruling? (1:09:28) USC-Notre Dame is BACK (1:14:29) Thanks for watching!   Once the fellas wrap up Indiana and Alabama, the guys dive into more teams on the Polymarket college football page. The teams include….   Auburn, Florida, and Michigan   Next up, the guys break down the latest on the Protect College Sports Act. With the Big Ten and SEC hopping on board, will this bill pass? Andy & Ari discuss   Also, the guys break down the madness from Friday night that would potentially allow former Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos to come back to college football.   To close, the guys with some breaking news regarding the USC & Notre Dame rivalry returning.   Thanks for watching!   Send your questions to: [e-mail] [e-mail]   Our show is presented by Polymarket!   Trade on College Football games every week on Polymarket. Download the Polymarket App with code ON3 for a $20 bonus upon sign up.   18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirement apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur.     Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/join   Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/Af6-RYiMkfo   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's Andy Nari on 3, we are talking season win totals for all your favorite teams because it is that time. We've been digging deep into schedules. Already did his projected playoff. I've done my projected playoff that's coming out later this week. It's time to figure out how many games these teams are going to win. We'll talk about that. Plus, a crazy Friday night where you had a ruling in the state of Colorado that might allow some players that thought their college careers were over to play.

And also, meanwhile, in D.C., you had the SEC and the Big Ten agreeing to support the Protect College Sports Act, which was basically dead and is now like the Undertaker GIF risen and might be voted on in the Senate this week. We'll talk about what all that means on today's Annie and Ari on 3 presented by Polymarket. We got a new sponsor alert, Ari. We are now brought to you by Polymarket. That's right. Available in all 50 states, download that polymarket app, and now we're taking positions. It's what we're always doing. We're moving markets. It feels great. Yeah, we're market movers, guys.

Exactly. So we're going to talk about wind totals today, but this works very much like what you're used to. The difference is, well, if you've traded soybean futures or pork bellies, you're really going to know what's going on. But basically, you're taking a position saying something to the tune of, I don't. know, I think Auburn will win more than seven and a half games. And based on how many other people take the position either with you or against you, that changes your payout. And it also changes as the season goes on. So you've got that. You've also got positions you can take on games that are going on right now, like Major League Baseball, or once college football gets kicked off, there will be positions on games that are going on. There will be spreads. It will be very similar to what you're used to. So, download the Polymarket app and use the code on three. New users

get $20 when they deposit 10 on sign-ups. So you deposit 10 bucks, you get 20 bucks from Polymarket, and you start trading. And we're going to talk about some of the wind totals that just dropped this morning. All right. He feels like football season, man. We're here. We're in the studio. We're in Nashville together in the flesh. And there's nothing better than my two favorite things in the entire world, Andy, college football and trading. That's right. So let's start trading with Polymarket. Download that app, use the code on three.

When you deposit $10, you get $20 right off the bat. Ari, let's have a show. Let's have a show. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3, presented by Polymarket and Ari.

New sponsor. The people who listened to the ad already knew that. But we are sponsored by Polymarket starting today. And it is a very interesting way of looking at the world, especially the world of college football, because they have dropped some win totals. Yes, sir. Today.

And we are watching them change in real time. We are watching people hit these things in real time. And it is a lot of fun because some people may be optimistic, some people may be pessimistic. But basically the way Polymarket works is you take a position. So it'd be just like you're trading soybean futures and you say, I think this thing will be this price on this day. You're basically saying, I think Oregon, when the season ends, will have won 10 and a half plus games. The thing that I like the most about the app, Andy, is that you can visually see how you're doing.

Yes. With a graph, it shows you. And there are things that will take into account, you know, in games, you know, a little bit differently than a season long position. You know, if somebody's starting quarterback on another team and your conference gets hurt and you take that team to win the conference, that will impact your position. So as you go on and through the season, and it's just wins and losses that will have the largest impact on a weekly basis, but things can change all the time. And you can see what other people think. You can try to fade those people. You can take similar position.

It's up to you. What you think the best value is? What do you think the locks are? It's all the same type of general idea, but a way of going about it and visualizing it throughout the year makes you feel more connected to the actual position that you're in. Well, and the national championship race is a really good example of this because this market's been up for a while. So the wind totals we're talking about the markets are changing quickly as people move into them. But this one's been up for a while. So we've got a little better idea of how things are spaced out.

And Ari, if you wanted an idea of how much the sport has changed in the last five years. Yeah, I think I know where you're going with this one. Because if we'd have done this in 2021, there probably would have been probably two or three teams clustered at the very top. Yeah, four upmost. Yeah. So right now, when I look at this, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas would be your co-favorites. Okay. But only 12% of the people have them selected in the market.

So essentially, if you have Notre Dame, if you have a stake in Notre Dame, if you have a stake in Notre Dame, you would get an 8.3x payout if they end up winning the national title because not that many people have Notre Dame, only 12%. But the thing is, there are five schools with 10% or more. And then you've got Miami at 9, Indiana at 8. Yeah. And it goes down from there. But there are a lot of schools that people think have a really legitimate chance of winning. I mean, that's what happens when you like spread it out. And I don't know what the number is. I actually haven't really thought about it. Let's do that right now. Okay. You know, just point blank. I know that

you might be off by five or whatever, but if you had to guess how many teams come into the season, or at least as we're recording this right now, could conceivably win. Not favorites, not teams that you expect to, but could if things break their way. Are we

bordering 15 to 20 now? Is that where we're at in the world? I just counted 12. 12. Okay. And I'll tell you which 12 that I thought. So Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Miami, Indiana, LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma. Okay.

I think that's 12. I think that's the 12 I had. Okay. So also teams like Michigan, I didn't hear. Well, I didn't hear SMU in there. I put Michigan in there. You know, let's, all right. So let's go 13 for me.

Yeah, I think that like what you're saying is true based on the numbers there, but I actually think the number is probably conceivably closer to 20 than we think. Yeah. Of teams that could get hot or teams that could turn a corner and like, that doesn't even take into account, like, some of the weird teams that are kind of on the, not weird, but like on the adjacent to the playoff, like, BYU. Like, do we think they can win the national championship? I mean, I'm not sure I'm there.

Do you think they can get through the, the, through the playoffs? Yeah. But I didn't hear a USC there. Well, if I'm going to say Michigan, I should say USC. Right. So, yeah, and I think you're right. I think it's probably 15 to 20 is, is probably the realistic number. And the realistic number in 2018 was four.

Yeah. Like legitimately, I wouldn't even have had a conversation. There was a list of teams. It was in Alabama and Clemson would have been the first two. Ohio State would have been on the list and Georgia would have on a list. And it wouldn't have been based on helmets. I think people, you know, that this is a helmet discussion, Andy, it's not.

You know what it would have been on them. What I would have looked at. You know exactly what I would have looked at. How many five-star players do you have on your team? Yeah, what do you bring back? How much experience they have right now? And that's it. And like, honestly, it was infallible for 20 years.

now, heck, I don't even know if there's even a benchmark to even gauge that anymore. Yeah. Like he used to just be in the data. The data is still there and I think the data is still valuable. But now there's so many different things occurring. Like which team got the left guard in the portal that no one wrote about that is actually just an ass kicker? Yeah. You know, that'll be a captain for your team.

I just keep thinking about Indiana. And I don't know if that was unique or that was the norm. But because it happened, it means things. are possible that I've never been possible before. And I think that'll be reflected in those numbers on polymarket, but also in the way that we do our show this year. Well, and let's talk about win-totals and how that works. Because I think Indiana is probably a good place to start.

Indiana is a team that we know has lost a lot from the national championship team that we saw last year. But they also went out in the portal, and they got Josh Hoover, and they got Nick Marsh. and they've got good players coming back who were on that national champion. Their left tackle didn't go anywhere. Charlie Becker didn't go anywhere. They've got some continuity there that I think people are probably discounting. The left tackle, Carter Smith, is the best tackle in the country. It's not just he's coming back.

He's literally one of the best players in the country. I think Charlie Becker, you would say with a straight face as a top five receiver in college football this year, I don't know if anybody would even push back on that. I don't know if he's going to be the top one receiver on Indiana. No, I know, but they're hoping to get out of Nick Orange. It's possible they have two. Well, I did. I ranked the top 10 receivers in the middle of the summer and I had both in the top 10.

So, you know, Andrew Marsh was a highly productive. Andrew Marsh at Michigan. Yeah, Andrew. Nick Marsh at Indiana. That's going to happen all year. Yeah, yeah. I don't know. It's like, as I actually wrote about Bryce Underwood this morning and had Andrew

Marsh's name in that story. They've got the same last name. They're both in the state of Michigan, same conference rivals. Well, Nick Marsh was at Michigan State and now he's at. Yeah, Nick Marsh is going to be a very good player because he's just had two full years of great production. So the question I guess with Indiana is the Signetti factor, the thing that I think that most people came to appreciate about Indiana a year ago, Andy, is that it was a team that made very few, if any, mistakes. Right. And I know that they had good players.

obviously Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman. Fernando Mendoza went on to be the number one overall pick in the draft, and I actually think he's going to be a great NFL player. But the way that that team operated from top to bottom, all 22 guys on both sides of the ball, and it didn't matter which one was on the field. It felt like they attacked the ball. They arrived at the football on defense.

They moved the ball effortlessly down the field, and they just didn't make boneheaded mistakes. Like, I don't know, is that a talent in your mind from a coaching? perspective to be able to get your team to play that way or was that a remarkable group of players? It's not just Kurt Signetti. Remember, he's had his coordinator for about 10 years. So Mike Shanahan, the offensive coordinator, Brian Haynes, the defensive coordinator, are back. And usually when you have a team like they've had the last two years, you lose a coordinator to a head coaching job. Yeah.

And I'm sure they're going to eventually. But they haven't yet. And I think that's what's interesting. So I'm looking at the wind total markets that Polly Market put up. And it's probably a little bit different than what you're used to. There's five different markets that you can work with. Yes. Basically, seven and a half plus, eight and a half plus, nine and a half plus, ten and a half plus,

ten and a half plus, eleven and a half plus. And I think the number that we should look at is the one in the middle. That's probably the one that's going to draw everybody's eye the most. And so nine and a half plus. So another ten win season for Indiana, which obviously they've done both years under Kurt Cignetti. But I would argue that the big ten road. is harder this year than it was the previous two.

I would agree. They get, they're at Nebraska and then Ohio State in consecutive weeks, and then the following week at Michigan. So that's a, that's a trio of games that's very tough. They play USC and Washington in consecutive weeks in November. So, but that said, are you doubting Kurt Signetti's ability to win 10 games again when he did it coming off, what, three and nine? Yeah.

He took them over in 2024. So I have a really hard time with being hyperbolic. You know this about me? And also a prisoner of the moment. When I think about my career covering college football in teams that played the same way that Indiana played last year, which was efficient and mistake-free, I think of Nick Saban. I think of the Alabama teams, because I think the greatest achievement in college football that I've seen. seen in my lifetime, though it might be. And of course, and Eddie what they did last year was how Nick Saban managed to get his

teams who won championships every other year to play like they've never won anything. Yeah. There was a difference though. There was a difference between those Sabin teams and the Signetti teams in terms of raw material. For sure. But I also think that, you know, I've seen complacency firsthand. Like I covered the 2015 Ohio State team and they were already, well, we won the title.

We're in the league now to get people to be. foaming at the mouth before games when they've won three national championships in the last six years or whatever I thought was remarkable. Is that a trait that Kurt Signetti can, but we can bank on with Signetti? Like last year was it a remarkable set of players that bought into the system that came with him from JMU and played that way? Or is he going to be able to get his team? They might not be as talented. They might not have as much upside from year to year. I don't know. Maybe this team does. Remember, they didn't change that much through the portal this year.

Right. They're more like your more established programs like Georgia, Ohio State, where they didn't take that many transfers. They didn't lose that many transfers. So as we look through this, I see two very tough stretches on Indiana schedule. The three-game stretch that you mentioned at Nebraska, at home at Ohio State, and at Michigan, pretty tough, and that's all in October. And then, of course, the two-game stretch against USC and Washington.

Can they get through both of those stretches only losing once? I think that the answer to that question is probably yes. Yeah, I do too. So I feel pretty good about that. Let us move to the team that Indiana beat in the playoff last year because this is one of the most interesting ones to me is Alabama because we don't know who they're going to start a quarterback. We know that they couldn't run the ball at all last year.

My feeling on them is if they run the ball, even halfway decent. They're a playoff team. So where do they land? Now, if we look at the markets, six and a half through 10 and a half, the one in the middle is eight and a half. And basically right now,

and again, when you look at this, it'll look different because these are constantly moving. I'm looking at it right now, 76% of the people have shares in eight and a half plus wins. So 76% of the people who have an 8.5 plus win share said yes, they will win that as opposed to no. Well, the one thing I wanted to say before we go all the way into Alabama is that the thing that's cool about this app, Polymarket, is that you can pick from a variety of different win totals. And the cool thing about it is if you can pick yes or no on each one. Yes or no.

Now, obviously, your investment and your return will vary based on how low that number is. If you pick a lower number, your return will be lower. You go really short on a team. If you think a team is going to be an utter disaster, you can go really short. You can find the lowest win total, and you can hit no. And the payout obviously will be high for that

because not many people are going to be on your side of that one. Yes, like you could take a position in Iowa to win more than five and a half games for $5. And win $4 if you want to. That's your prerogative. We're not going to tell you how to do that. But I do think that Alabama is an interesting case study of where you would choose to go,

because I think there's such a wide. wild card. I don't know, Andy, what you think, but Alabama, I feel like people are down on right now. I think everybody's come around to the idea that this team is probably going to be solid but not great. Is that a fair assessment?

I think that's where they're at. I think the middle win total being eight and a half feels about right there. The question is, do they get hot? Remember they got hot last season during a very difficult stretch of the season? And we were like, this team can win the national title.

They did get hot. Yeah. And so they have a, they have a similar stretch this season where if they were to go three and oh in this stretch, if you had, you know, the 10 and a half win, the 10 and a half plus win total right now. Yeah. If they were to go 3 and 0 in this stretch, your shares would be worth quite a bit more. Yeah. I'm looking at a four-game stretch here, Andy, from October 10th and November 7th. Well, you're missing a bye week.

Okay. October 10th, Georgia comes to Tuscaloosa. October 17th, Bama goes to Nealyn Stadium. Bama has not won at Neeland Stadium since 2020. October 24th, Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa. By week, Bama goes to Baton Rouge. Remember, Bama's won three in a row against LSU. Yeah.

You separate the by week, and I think that makes sense. You get a week to prepare. I love that your reward for playing Georgia at Tennessee and Texas A&M is a week off before you. You have to go to LSU. But here's the thing that I will say that I believe that the SEC win totals in general will be the hardest to pay before the season. I don't know. I feel like I have a pretty solid grasp of how the Big Ten is going to shape up and look.

When it comes to the SEC, and I struggle with this when filling out my bracket, I don't know if you ran into the same thing, which is who is going to make the playoff. And then if they make the playoff, what's their seating? Because you don't know who's going to jump out and bite you. Right. So, like, this is... Can I give you the two games that I think that are the key to this? On Alabama schedule? Yeah.

Kentucky and South Carolina. I agree with you. At Kentucky, week two, South Carolina comes to Tuscaloosa Week 4. Those are the... If you lose one of those, you're probably going under that eight and a half. Yes, you want to get to 4-0 and you have Florida State there as well. And we are fairly certain that they're going to be, me. But they...

Well, right. This team's... should be 5 and O going to the Georgia game. Yes. Because then it gets really gnarly after that. And then whatever happens, happens. But if you're going to be a playoff team, and I realize they made the playoff last year

after losing the Florida State right away. But it took them having a pretty Herkulean September, early October. That was like a really, really impressive run and it completely changed the way that we viewed Bama. And there's another wild card game in here too, and I don't know if you would call it wild card because it's a rivalry.

but, you know, they have that tough stretch in, you know, early October to mid-November. And then they play at home against Auburn. And I don't know about you, Andy, but what are your views of Auburn? You know, we can't really just gloss over at Vanderbilt anymore either. Not, not glassing over it, yeah. But I feel like Auburn, the first time in the rivalry, Alex Golish on the road under in this staff and this. Yeah. Byron Brown.

Like, I don't know what to think of that. It's in Tuscaloosa, though. And the thing is, Alabama has been very good against Auburn and Tuscaloosa. Yeah. It seems to be the Jordan Hare games, the ones that really get weird. So that one, that's why I didn't really go with that one. But, yeah, I'm fascinated by this. I just think they're one of the most interesting teams in college football this year.

Kailin DeWore's fine. They just extended them. Yeah. I don't think it would have to be an utter disaster. It's not going to be an utter disaster. they're going to be a good team. It's just a matter of how good are we talking? I just think that there are,

there's a group of wildcard teams in the SEC this year. Oh, who's your other wild card? My, I want to see their win total. Okay. Well, first of all, I just wanted to finish this point real quick. Alabama's got three of them. Okay. They have Kentucky.

I think it's a wild card team. I think South Carolina is a wild card team. And they have those in the first month of the season. I think Auburn's a wild card team. I think you're right. So if you don't, so when picking win totals, It's difficult because you're not quite sure where you're going to land

when you're playing those wild card teams. So we can go through some of the other wildcard teams if you want. I think Florida's a wildcard team. What about Auburn? I think Auburn's a wild card. Just mention them. Yes. So I mentioned this on the show, but it still blows my mind.

The last time Auburn finished the season over 500 was Gus's last season in 2020. Yeah. That doesn't seem right because it seems like they've been. talented enough at times to be better than that, and they just haven't. So, like, I look at the, I look at the totals, and so you can choose, you got five choices here, four and a half, five and a half, six and a half, seven and a half, eight and a half. Six and a half plus is the one that seems to be the one the eye moves toward. That's your, you're definitely going to finish over 500. You go seven and five, you could lose a bowl game, still finish over 500. And I think that's, that's a

legitimate question for Auburn this year. Because it's funny last year when I got really over my skis and thought Auburn was going to be really good. Sorry about that, guys. The Auburn fans came in and said, do you remember the last time we finished

above 500? Do you remember that? And I was like, yeah, it was oh, wait, no. Oh, oh. We're also getting old, Andy. The time is going fast right now. That's true. But I think Auburn fans who are used to the roller coaster, they've been through this, they

we'll look at this and say, yeah, we love, love if this team's good. They win nine, ten games. It's awesome. But, but we'll take seven. We'll take seven as a sign of progress. I mean, part of the roller coaster aspect of it is that you do have to go back up at some point. I mean, it's been a long time. Yeah. Since they've gone that, you know, that that chuch ch ch ch ch ch chunk, chunk, chunk, up the, you know, and who knows. But Byram Brown is maybe the most wild card player there is in this conference on a wild car. Because if he puts up the numbers that are similar to what he put up in the American, which is over 3,000 yards passing, over 1,000 yards rushing last year, they're going to be awesome.

For sure. They just are because the defense is probably pretty good with DJ Dirk and coming back. And now, look, it is obviously a step up in competition. But again, the last time we saw Byron Brown in an SEC stadium against an SEC team, he won. He won. Now, they didn't put up massive numbers. They won.

He has the physical makeup that I'm obsessed with. Now I know that we spent a lot of time in the offseason discussing his throwing motion. But if he is the type of X factor who can rush for 160 yards in a game where the offense isn't really moving that well, and he can change it and he can be physical and big and get crucial third downs on third and two, like I think that that is a massive difference between what Auburn

struggle with last year, which was ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball with a really solid defense. We referred to them last year as the best bad team in college football. Now, if you added a player that was 70%, even 65% as good as Cam Newton was with the same makeup, like I think that some of those close games they lost last year are actually wins. So I can actually buy the notion that Auburn is a 7 to 8 win team this year. And I think that it's possible that their quarterback who is just hard to tackle might be the difference in some of those games.

Now, game one is against a guy that Byron Brown played against last year. DJ Lagway will be leading Baylor into Auburn. I love the sport. It's so strange. So that one is a tricky one because, again, we don't know what Auburn's going to look like. We can assume, because we watched USF last year, that offensively they will not need a lot of time to gel together, that they should be able to look like they're supposed to look right off the bat. the question I have is

what does Baylor look like right off the bat? That's also a very interesting question. Because that could be a challenge. And then remember week three, you get Florida coming in and that is John Somerall who I think the majority of Auburn fans thought was going to wind up being their coach

when Hugh Freeze got fired and then it all worked out differently where Somerall takes the Florida job and then Golish takes the Auburn job. So Auburn's schedule is very difficult. We mentioned Florida coming in week three. Vandy comes in week four. That's been a challenge for Auburn lately.

And then at Tennessee, by week at Georgia, LSU, at Ole Miss. Like, this schedule is. Do you know they don't have a no doubt about, they have one no doubt about it when? Yeah, this schedule is nasty. Before November 7th. They're going to have to be, like, they're going to have to be legit good to get to the seven win mark.

Yes, and I think that if they get to the seven win mark, you'll be able to see that they're legit good. I also wanted to make an aside here about the Baylor game. The fact that this game's at 2.30 on Saturday, September 5th, seems wrong to me. This says Friday night, September 4th, written all over. It was a Friday night game last year.

I know. But the thing is, all the games in week one sucks so much. This got bumped into a really prime position. But doesn't that like the appetizer to the weekend? That's what that feels like to me. But I'm excited to see that. I know we're talking about Auburn here, but I am excited to see DJ Lagway

and what that may or may not look like in Waco. All right. You mentioned another wild card in the SEC, and that's Florida. Florida. Fascinating. I mean, everybody that has a first year head coach. Yeah.

I mean, it's just, and the rosters are so different, but Florida, let's lock on them, right? But I do feel like the optimism around Florida is higher than the optimism around Auburn by just a shade, and I don't really understand why. I can tell you why Okay, tell me why. ORA.

That's it? John Somerol has aura. John Somerall is funnier than Alex Golish. Is that, really? I got a pedicure yesterday. Did you see that? Because of John Summerall? Well, we were going to go anyway, but it did make me think of it.

But I don't know. Because the thing that's interesting is that the quarterback position in terms of excitement, are you more excited to see whoever wins the Florida job? Are you excited to see Byron Brown? No, Byron Brown. Like so that's what so usually like the quarterback position is what drives. Also I'm pretty sure I know what Auburn's offensive line is going to look like because some of it's from USF.

Well, they know what there's enough guys on that offense that have played in it to know. Now like Florida, there are guys. If Aaron Filo wins the job at quarterback, he played in Buster Faulkner's offense before. Eric Singleton Jr., the receiver has played in that offense before. The center has played that offense before. Harparing the tight end has played that offense before. So there are pieces of it. Well, the pieces of it for Florida is that they might have one of the best receiver rooms of the country.

Well, and that's the other part. What I think is driving the optimism for Florida is they kept guys. Summerall came in and kept guys from the Napier roster that are potentially really good. You know, Jaden Baugh, Jaden Woods, Dallas Wilson, Vernel Brown the 3rd. These are people who have either shown flashes in the games we've seen them or like L.J. McCray was a five-star recruit, just hasn't quite had a chance to really show he got hurt last year.

So I think it's more roster, more like old school roster based. And I think that that's fair because I think that the one thing that we could probably say about Florida is that they'll at least be at the baseline functional a quarterback. Is that a fair assumption that they'll be fun because they have two options? Yes, no, I feel like, because Philo

comes in handpicked around the offense. If it winds up being Tramel Jones, it is because he was a lot better. And I don't, that's why I think it's probably still going to be Philo because I don't know that Jones is going to be able to do enough to overtake. But I love the fact that Tramel Jones exists

breathing down his neck every day. Yeah. And if they can figure out their offensive line, which is their biggest question mark, you know they're going to run the ball hard. Jay and Baugh is maybe the best running back. I mean, he's in the conversation. I know that there's some other really good.

Yeah, we got a mod hardy, key one Lacey. There's some guys in the SEC in the back. But also the two guys in Michigan. Yeah, the two guys at Michigan. But the one thing is, is that the fact that his name would even come up in the conversation is all you need at running back. And the thing that I've loved about him is that he popped the second he carried the ball as a freshman. You knew that guy had it. And then, of course, with those three receivers that you just mentioned, you know how I feel about big five stars.

Dallas Wilson was hurt last year. Yeah. I got a lot of excitement to see. The very brief time he did play, he looked pretty good. He changes the game. We know for a fact that Eric Singleton can take a screen 80 yards for a touchdown. I did that to you in the video game. You did.

It was the thing. We played the video game and Andy, I was like, Eric Singleton? Yeah, we were playing the Florida Auburn game. And then, of course, Vernal Brown is consistent as hell. So, like, I do think that when you think about the makeup of it, and their defensive line, I think is going to be very good. Right. So Florida does have the pieces and then, of course, the swag. Like, so you can't.

For them, seven and a half plus is the one that the eye moves toward. Mm-hmm. And I gotta tell you, I think eight and four, Florida fans would grumble a little bit if I said that now, that you'd be happy with eight and four. You'd be happy with eight and four. After what you've been through the last few years, you'd be happy with eight and four,

especially with this schedule. I can't even tell whose schedule's harder. They both seem really hard. They're both very hard. Florida and Auburn have very hard schedules. So Florida, opens SEC play at Auburn, week three. Week four, Ole Miss comes to Gainesville,

fresh off the LSU game. Then Florida goes to Missouri. That's not going to be easy. South Carolina comes to Gainesville at Texas, the Georgia game, which is in Atlanta this year, because they're reviewing the stadium in Jacksonville. And then Oklahoma comes to Gainesville, and then they go to Lexington.

Like, it is not going to be easy for the game. And you know I'm buying Kentucky hype. Yeah. The one thing that is different about, like if they're eight and four against the schedule, They've done really well. They've had a good year. And a lot of, remember what we talked about Nebraska last week,

where we said there's a certain threshold? Like if Nebraska can win eight, they can win 10 because it means they're capable of winning games that we just didn't think they could win before. Florida's the same way. Yeah. But the weird thing is we saw that with Napier. Like, this team beat Texas last year.

Yeah, I mean, we always talk about crossroad games. I mean, the fact that Florida plays Auburn on September 19th, on the road. That seems like kind of like a which direction are these two teams going in type of game. But what's funny is it might not. It might not. At all. It just seems like that right now. But Andy, the thing that's different about Florida's schedule from Auburns is they have two games and I know that

I don't want to make the mistake of just taking for granted and in-state G6 team coming into the swamp after what happened last year. They have two games against teams they should beat out of the gate and they can get into mid to late September 2 and O feeling out who they are a little bit. Like, Auburn's got a rough go of it out of the gate. And, you know, I think that Baylor's going to be very hungry and Dave

ran his job. It's just not an easy game. So, uh, yes, I, I, I, let's play the Florida ready sooner. They do. Florida, Florida has runway. And I think that's why Florida can can ease into the quarterback decision. I think you're going to get a chance to see them both play a little bit. And then you will have a very good idea if you're John Summerall and Buster Faulkner,

going into the Auburn game, which one you want to go with. Okay, so I want you to be optimistic Andy right now. Okay. And let's go through Florida. Let me put some sunshine up. All right, let's go. We're going to play two. Optimistic Florida, Andy, and pessimistic Florida Andy.

First, let's do optimistic. Right. Let's go. Let's do it. Everything's going to be great. Let's go through their schedule. I'm going to count on my fingers who you think. I'm optimistic, Andy.

Okay. Yeah, yeah. FAU. When? Campbell. All those camels ain't got nothing. At Auburn. Win!

Ole Miss. Well, I mean, they burned all their energy against LSU. They were trying to beat Lane Kiffin. Okay, don't be too optimistic. Florida win! Really? Okay. Missouri.

Como's been a house of horrors for Florida. Even optimistic Andy's going to say, eh. Okay, so optimistic Andy gives them a win against Ole Miss and a loss at Missouri. That's wild. Okay. Optimistic Andy, South Carolina. Win! Win!

optimistic Andy at Texas. Beat him last year, didn't they? They sure did. Listen. You can beat them last year with Billy Napier coaching them. You can beat them this year with John Summerall coaching him, right? I think so. Okay.

How are we doing? The game was, so you're taking a winner at Texas? I am. Okay. Well, then I guess we're going over, guys. He's overly optimistic. Georgia the next week. That's a loss.

If you beat Texas, you're going to, well, I mean, they got a buy week, but yeah, Oklahoma. Loss. Okay, at Kentucky. Win! Okay. It's not because of Will Stein. It's because of former Kentucky linebacker John Summerall.

So Vanderbilt. Win. Okay, at Florida State. Win. So that's overly optimistic, Andy, I think. You gave them nine wins. Ooh, there you go. I would probably take one away.

Ole Miss and Texas, if those two are wins. Do you want to do pessimistic Andy? Are you ready? Well, yes, but I do think that, optimistic Andy probably gets them at eight wins if you take one away. I don't need to take one away. You gave them wins against Ole Miss and Texas. I also gave them a loss at Missouri and a home lost Oklahoma. Okay. So

you're over. Let's do pessimistic Andy now. Okay. FAU. When I guess. Campbell. When? Auburn. Oh my God. Jordan here. There's some days it doesn't matter. Nobody can win. there. Loss. Ole Miss. Los. At Missouri.

Loss. At home against South Carolina. Win. Okay. At Texas. Loss. Georgia. Loss.

Oklahoma. Napier-style win. At Kentucky. Loss. Vanderbilt. Win. Florida State. Win.

So six. So if that's your window. That's still better. That's a pretty, that's so there was. a range of the ways things can go here. I actually think that I'm going to average those two together and I think that like seven was probably the seven and five.

Well, and here we sit on the horns of a trading dilemma in Polymarket. Yeah, I have a hard time with four games. Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma. If they could win one or optimistically two of those games, Like I think that their schedule will probably be decided with those four. Now that doesn't mean they can't jump out and lose at Auburn or lose at home at Vanderbilt or even hell go on the road to Kentucky. I don't know. But I think that when you talk about record and figuring out how you want to feel about your first year coach,

I think that the grading rubric is going to reside in those four games. I think you're right about that. And really, you're looking for a way they play. You're looking for, do they have 11 men on the first? field goal block team every time. I realize that seems rudimentary, but it does seem kind of weird. That was an issue at Florida for a while. Talk about that in the same episode where I just got done saying Kurtzegneddy is the greatest gift to fundamental based.

But they do, but, but that's why they're so successful. And, you know, if John Summerall's team play smart like that, then they will win more games. Obviously, I mean, that, that was, Florida's issue was not talent last year. Yeah. They were just poorly organized. I do think that could be a big difference. And we'll find out because, again, this schedule is gnarly. And there's a lot of different ways this can go.

And I don't want to do this. Okay, I want to do this. August 3rd is we're recording this. All right. Optimistic Andy's team could make the playoff. Of course. You can be a little miss in Texas. You can make the playoff.

There's no question about that. That's what I was like, you're going on the road and winning at Texas. That might be. That's the thing. They beat Texas last year. They gave Ole Miss hell. Yeah. With an interim staff last year.

I'm very, for three and a half quarters. I know for a fact with the bracket that I, Windjure's going out, by the way. You're working on it now? Yeah, I believe it's coming out on Tuesday. It's coming out to tomorrow. So what I'm very curious to see because I have not seen what yours is going to look like is that the teams that I picked, the SEC teams that everybody's picking,

doesn't leave any room for optimistic Andy Florida. Well, I also did. Yeah, I don't believe I have five SEC teams on my bracket. I believe I have four SEC and four Big Ten. Mine was five SEC three big ten this year. So we'll see how it actually plays out. But the fact is that I think that there is going to be, we can do optimistic Andy for other teams too,

but there will be an optimistic Andy team that actually happens. Yeah. And I just don't know who it's going to be. Well, can we go to the 10? Sure, let's do it. Can we go to the team I actually feel very optimistic about? Yeah, let's do it. The Michigan Wolverines.

Okay, yeah. So this is a team that won nine games last year amidst some of the worst circumstances imaginable now that we know what's going on, or what was all going on behind the scene. Like how this team even managed to show up on Saturdays and look somewhat competent is amazing. They want nine games. They should be more confidently coached.

They should be more talented. So I'm looking at this, and I know part of this is schedule-based, but I'm looking at the markets on polymarket right now. So you go six and a half, seven and a half, eight and a half, nine and a half, ten and a half. So the one we're looking at is eight is eight and a half. I would be very optimistic. Optimistic Andy would be very optimistic about eight and a half plus. I think optimistic Andy would be very optimistic about nine and a half plus. Yeah.

We're going to find out very soon into the season what type of team Michigan is because I think we both agree that Oklahoma is going to be a very good team this year. Yes. Michigan is fortunate to get them at home. I don't know that they have to win that. game, but I think that we're going to know whether they're equipped to. They don't have to, but if you don't win that game, you will have to very much earn a playoff berth. For sure. The good news for them is that they don't play USC. The bad news for them is that they play

Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State. And this is one of the two games Penn State's got to get up for. That's right. So it will be difficult for them. But again, more competently. coached, probably more talented. This is not a team that lost. Because a lot of times you have a coaching change, guys just pour into the portal. That did not happen for Michigan. And they had a couple of guys who went in and then came back

out and stayed at Michigan. Okay, so let me workshop something. I just filed the column. I don't know when it's going to run, hopefully, in the next day or so. Yeah. Maybe even by the time the show goes out. But it was, the headline was,

were there actually too high of expectations on Bryce Underwood last year. Yes, he wasn't supposed to play. Like, if we go back to the original, can we just, let's turn back time to spring 2025. He was not supposed to play. They got a transfer from Fresno State who was supposed to play. Mikey Keene.

He got hurt. He was supposed to play. He got hurt before spring. He got, I believe was capable of playing by the fall. But like, by that point, Bryce I were taking all the snaps of the ones. He gave you a better chance to win. Yeah. So, and by the way, Rice Underwood at the time, did not have a dedicated quarterback coach.

He does now. Right. There are two ways of looking at this, Andy. There's the optimistic Andy way, which is the one that you just basically outlined. That's just rational, neutral Andy right there. That happened. Yes. Well, the favorable way is he was a true freshman.

They won nine games. Yeah. Wasn't supposed to be playing. Schedule's harder this year, though. Also, Sharon Moore, all those different things. Poor. all around by Sharon Moore on and off the field.

Here's the brutal way. Okay. Underwood signed a $12 million deal worth $3 million a year. In the three biggest games on Michigan's schedule last year, all of which were losses, Oklahoma, U.S.C. and Ohio State, he totaled for 412 passing yards,

137.3.3 per game. Now, maybe that's just what a freshman's going to do, but a lot of those games were in the second half of the season. Yep. So do you, and it's also become quite in vogue to kind of crap on him this off season. I don't know if you've noticed this, but a lot of people have. I'm aware. I put him number seven on my list of big 10 quarterbacks and people thought that I was being a recruiting homer because the Michigan, even the Michigan fans were probably like, I don't know about Michigan fans,

but people are like, you know, you work it on three. So of course you're not going to like admit when you have a miss of a ranking. And it's like, so I do think that there is at least a 20% to be a little wary. Okay. Here's why I'm optimistic Andy about this. Okay. We know the defense

is going to be good. Yes. John Henry Daley now added to that defense, now healthy. Yes. One of the best pass rushers in the country.

Yep. Plus all of the talent they already had. Yes. They're going to be able to run the ball. Maybe the best one of the top five

best running back duos in the country. Yeah, Jordan Marshall, Sabian, Heider, the freshman, comes up. who probably is pretty pissed off he didn't get two mill a year.

So what did Kurt Signetti say when he got asked about Josh Hoover, their transfer quarterback? Yes. What did Kurtzignetti say? He said, we're not going to ask him to do as much as we had to last year.

We're going to put defense and offense around him. He said he's going to get a quarterback's two best friends, a great defense and a running game. Yeah. And he kind of reiterated that at Big Ten Media Day this week. So you're going to have Bryce Underwood not being thrown into a situation that he probably wasn't ready for. Being more competently coached with a running game. And even if you take away the Sharon Moore stuff.

Yeah. Like, let's just pretend that didn't happen. Yeah. Kyle Woodingham is probably still a better coach. Right. Right. So we talk about the poor choices by Sharon Moore. One of the choices that he did make was that originally,

didn't plan to play Bryce Underwood. Yeah. So I think if you look at it from that lens that he did fine given the circumstances. Now he has to level up. Now he's got to earn the money. There also is a little bit of the Archmanning disease here too.

Yeah. Now, obviously much different circumstances his dad isn't a... Oh, can I add one one copy out of this? Tommy Carr. I don't think it was an accident. We heard all those really nice things about Tommy Carr in the spring. Yeah. Maybe Tommy. Because remember, Tommy Car's brother's really good. Maybe that the car boys are just...

Maybe there's something in the water in the car household. So, just remember, if it doesn't work out, they might have another option. Based on everything that Whittingham said in Chicago, it seems very clear who the number one guy is. Oh, no, no, I'm not saying there's controversy. But what I'm saying is... But somebody said he had a short leash.

There was a report. that said that Underwood had a short. I don't know how much you buy into that crap. But everyone has a short leash, by the way. If you suck, you're going to get pulled out of the game. But I don't know how much. If Tommy Carr comes into the picture, I'm not sure I'm feeling pretty good about the over.

That's not something that would be comforting to me. But what I do know is, is that of all the pieces that they have around him, plus the defense, if you thought he was poor last year or below average based on your expectations, they still got to nine wins. Tougher schedule this year.

I think that getting to nine wins is probably a pretty good position to take. But the Bryce Underwood thing is the Arch Manning thing a little bit. People are still catching up to the fat freshman unproven contract. The fact that he left LSU and the perception is that he did so

to get paid more. Right. And everybody crowning him as one of the next great things and it feels like people want him to fail. And I think part of that comes into analysis. And I don't think that's fair. So I am probably more on the optimistic side with this,

which is thrown in too early, not according to plan, coaching inconsistencies. And then you bring in, and I'm a huge Kyle Whittingham guy. Like consistency. What is Kyle Whittingham, like if we're talking about the hallmark

of Kyle Whittingham teams through the years at Utah, what were the hard nose incompetent? Great, competent line of scrimage play. What is the most hortable thing in football? Like what what almost, what raises your floor more than anything else? Those two things.

Yes. Lines. Line proficiency. Now I don't know how much that travel. Like you said travels. I think personality travels, but personnel doesn't. The good thing for him is that Michigan has a person.

They already had great personnel. Like that wasn't a problem. So, and they brought in one of the best edge rushers in the country. Yeah. If he can be back to himself. I am optimistic about Michigan. The only part that's hard is there are other really good teams in the Big Ten.

That's it. Oregon's really good. Indiana's really good. Ohio State's really good. Penn State's going to be good. Like Matt Campbell and the Penn State Cyclones that everyone jokingly calls them. They're going to come in and be very competent and good right away. So Michigan's going to be challenged.

Quite a bit. They sure will. Now the question that you, I think I would just like, will simply. to this is, is it possible for him to go to Ohio State at the end of year and throw for 63 yards again? Because he cannot be that. No, he has to. And Ohio State had a legendary defense last year. I'm not saying that it was only because he stinks. He has to be better. But the offense has to be in a place that it is so good that that's an impossibility. But yes, listen, two of the first four games are Oklahoma and Iowa. They're lucky to get both of them

at home. I think that we're going to figure out really soon. But Iowa at Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana all in a row. Yeah. It's not the easiest scheduled to. Oh, actually, can I, can I run a stat line by you? Sure. I just, you know, just want to run this one little. I see what's on his iPad and I think I know it's coming. 16 of 20 for 148 passing yards and one touchdown. Yes. What is that? That's J.J. McCarthy stat in, or stat line against Ohio State. in 2023, the year that one that national time. Yeah. So is you going to throw for 136 yards? That might win you the game. It depends on how you run the ball.

You know, the thing that we haven't mentioned yet that's important to mention is that I think that we would both agree that Bryce Underwood is a more proficient pastor than Devin Dampere. Right, right. Devin Tampere was not as good of a runner, but definitely a better arm. But Whittingham said in Chicago this past week that he experienced. a lot of what we saw out of Devin Dampeer with his legs to be something that we see in Ann Arbor. So I'm very curious what the Bryce Underwood running factor is. He's a big, tough kid. If you can, you know, we had that mailbag question a month ago about, you know, what his stats were like if he rushes for a thousand yards, then you can throw for 137. Because I don't know what, I don't remember what J.J. McCarthy's rushing total was in that game.

But that was just, and their rivalry games are weird. but you know, you just can't be in a position where you're in the third quarter in a two-possession game and it doesn't feel like you can get a first down. JJ only ran for 17 yards. Oh, yeah. So that was a Blake Quorum average warrior to carry. Yeah. Alex Orgy came in and ran.

Had a couple nice runs. That's a blast from the past. Ah, yeah, Alex Orgy. How about that? Now, I'm excited to see Michigan this year. So listen, I think. I'm reading between the lines. here. It seems like you're pretty high on them.

Eight and a half plus. I like the plus. I like the plus on that. All right, all right. Let's talk about something that did not have great odds as of Friday morning. And then Friday night, everything changed. That's the Protect College Sports Act. We talked about it late last week.

And going into the end of the last week, it seemed very dire for the one college sports bill that actually had a chance to actually have a chance. to have any chance at all of passing. And then suddenly things changed on Friday night. We'll talk about something else that happened Friday night in a federal court in Colorado that I don't know if that necessarily helped push it across the goal line, but I think it probably helped a little bit. So the SEC and the Big Ten were not on board

with the Protect College Sports Act. We did a thing with Ted Cruz. We brought him on the show when that bill dropped in May, and it was very anti-SEC in Big Ten. the way it was written, basically made so they could never form a Super League, made so they would be heavily encouraged to pull their TV rights with the other leagues. And I got the opposition, like I understood the opposition from the Big Ten of the SEC, but they got a little bit back their way from the senators.

There's a little bit negotiating back and forth. So the SEC and the Big Ten got some things they wanted. and then on Friday night with I believe the big 10 under the most pressure from Donald Trump who basically said hey look if you guys don't come on board with this thing I'm blasting you

I'm sicking all my followers on you they come around they say we will support it and now there's a chance now there's a chance it could be voted on this week in the Senate if it passes the Senate it would go to the house and there was a real chance

that this thing could pass So what do we want to know about it? How, if it passes, what does it actually look like? What happens? Okay. So what it would do is set up a lot of the things that the schools want and give them not as much of an antitrust exemption as they wanted, but enough to keep some stuff moving and to do some of the things that they want to do. So eligibility, you get five years to play five. you get one free transfer now the thing about it is and I know you're going to say okay well they're just going to sue

and they can sue but I also don't know that this is necessarily the worst thing in the world because you get more than one free transfer if you graduate yeah and people graduate quick if you graduate you get more

and I think that part of it you know if you think it would change things that dramatically I'm not sure it necessarily would but it would make it where you're not a free agent every single year, which I think people feel like it is pretty reasonable. I think it's a net positive for the

viewer experience. Yeah, I think people consider that reasonable. You can have a conversation about whether that's reasonable for the people who are actually playing the game, but that's it. I don't really like the idea of telling non-employees that they have to adhere to non-compete. That I don't really enjoy that. But again, I do

think this wouldn't be the be-all-end-all either. Yeah, because there's always two different avenues of how to view this. What is good for the player itself? What's fair to the player as an American? And what does the viewer prefer? And sometimes those two things don't jive for a while. And it doesn't lock down the idea that it can't be challenged. Right. I think that's what the schools originally wanted was something that said, you can't challenge this ever, this will never change. They wanted to make it the NFL. Yeah. Well, no, they didn't want to make it the NFL.

Or like in the sense that the roster. They wanted to make it 1995 in college football again. Yeah. The players get paid. I meant in the NFL in the sense that you can't challenge where you're playing. Right. So that part of it, I think fans would consider being that positive. The salary cap, quote unquote, is not really. They say there's one now, but there's not really. It would go up.

And right now, the way it is structured is the cap would be $48.5 million or so per school with a significant portion of that being retouching. attention. Like, you could only spend it to retain your own players. It's sort of like, you know, the NBA has the Larry Bird exception where you can do more for a guy who was already on your team. Yeah. That sort of thing.

Now, here's the thing. That $48.5 million is for your entire athletic program. There are plenty of schools whose football and men's basketball teams will eclipse that this year. I don't think the schools can adhere to that. I think they'll keep trying to raise it. Yeah. So it'll be interesting to see how they handle that.

One of the last sticking points, and this is one that Ted Cruz went to bat for last week, the Big Ten of the SEC said, oh, you're making it, it's still too easy to circumvent the cap. You're still making it where a Nike school can have Nike sign a player to an NIL deal, and that's essentially just a pass-through. And Ted Cruz at a certain point is like, listen. Because what schools do now is each one will have like a multimedia rights company. the two big ones are Learfield and Playfly and essentially all they do is they say

hey guys funnel some money to the players through the deals you're making through the ad deals you're making because that's what Learfield would do is they'd sell the ad they would guarantee the school a certain amount of money they'd sell all the sponsorships and then they would kind of split it

but since NIL came into effect and since RevShare came into effect what they've done now is they are now the pass-through where they'll write the deals and they'll say, oh, we got this money for the players. So that would probably be stopped. But a guy, but like Jeremiah Smith could still get a Nike deal if he wanted to. I guess my, this is cool because Andy's like the lawyer brainiac and I'm the normie.

But I'm going to ask it just in this way. What will schools do to try to start? convince the county. It'll be interesting because, let's say this thing passes, you are effectively violating a federal law. Now, I don't think they're going to threaten federal funding or anything like that, but they will empower the College Sports Commission, which is the group that formed after the House settlement,

the conferences formed. It is essentially the NCAA by another name. They will say that we're going to cut your rev share money if you go over. Basically, what I'm trying to say is how does Cody Campbell get neutralized in this? I think Texas Tech will spend probably about what they spend now. But that doesn't, that's not necessarily neutralizing him. And that's saying he's not going to just chuck in more. But I think they will.

I think the schools are going to push and, you know, this will go by conference. The Big Ten in the SEC will want to raise the cap over and over and over again, because they can. The Big 12 and the ACC will not want it to go up. What I'm not understanding is even if a school is able to, through revenue share, and through the money that's legal under this bill, pay the $40, whatever, million dollars to the roster, what is going to stop a mega booster from creating shell companies

or doing anything to give them real NIL deals? Probably nothing. So then there's no cap. Probably not. Yeah. Because even if there is, a cap, they're going to push to raise it. Yeah. They cannot stop themselves. The good news is that the cap number that you shared with me

right there and the viewers seems to be towards the top end of what people are already paying. We've talked about this. Like when Steve Sarkesian says cap space when he was talking about not resigning Parker Livingston, not resigning the running backs, he's saying it somewhat tongue and cheek. But Texas is one of the schools we view as having quote unquote unlimited money. They don't have unlimited money. Yeah. Nobody has unlimited money.

Yeah. So there is an upper limit. And that's the other thing. Like they're not going to wind up paying these guys as much as NFL teams pay their players because they don't make as much money as NFL teams make. And the ironic part about it is that the cap could be coming in theoretically towards the top end of where it already was going to settle naturally. I don't know how much further we were going to go.

It's more and more and more. It didn't make any rules. And again, this is not a guarantee that this passes the Senate, passes the House, and gets signed in the law by Donald Trump. It certainly has a much better chance than it had this time last week. But even if it didn't pass, I do think if you just let it go that way, the market would naturally level off. Okay. Let's do a new segment called Brainiac Andy and Normiari.

Oh, God. Where I just ask you questions that I know. All right. Fire away. Fire away. Do, if you're a new segment. are a fan of just college football. Okay. And you are somewhat excited about this bill. Should the general fan be rooting for this?

I think it depends on what you're a fan of. Like, what school are you a fan of? Yeah. That changes things. I think it's interesting because you have that media rights pooling, which we talked about, which they could all sell their rights together if 75% of the FBS agreed to do it.

The Big Ten and the SEC do not want to do that. They don't want to share that stuff with the Big Ten and the Big 12 in the ACC and with the group of six. They don't have to do this. If the bill passes, it is voluntary. They don't have to do it. Now, here's the other part of it, though, if the bill passes. They're capping the membership of the Power League's at 19. The Big Ten's at 18.

So you can imagine who the 19th would be. Yes. Now, for the SEC, you start thinking, okay, would they add two? Would they add three? But here's the catch. If you're already in a power league, the bill would require you to operate as an independent

for five years before you could move, which would be pretty difficult. Yeah. So that's the other piece of this. Like if I were Clemson, I would not be happy today. Yeah. If I'm Miami, North Carolina, I'm probably not happy today. but that's another piece where I don't know if you if you challenge that can you get around it

I don't know if I'm speaking out of turn here and you have to check me I think the general fan if I could simplify it yep is just looking for rationality and for this to settle down right and to not be a lawsuit over everything they just want it to just be like the thing about this one calm yeah and the other thing is like you can say, well, they're limiting the players' income, which they are. Yeah. But the players are making a lot of money. Now, the question is, should the schools be given any license to violate a federal law, the Sherman Act?

Which they are. Which they currently are, but they would have exemptions if this bill became law. So they, and that's the question. I think if you ask the general policy. public. I'm not talking about if you ask an antitrust lawyer. Yeah. Just ask the general public. Just bill the South Carolina fan. The money that they're making now, the general public's going, that's more than fair. I think that's what the general public would say. And I think it is more than fair. So it's a different discussion. I never thought that it wasn't more than fair. I get a little bit wary of someone's worth X. You don't get to. I would never want anyone to tell me what I'm worth. Exactly. So I don't like to do it to other people. Yeah. But I also understand that, you know, I'm also a big fan of college football, and I find it following it to be dysfunctionally insane. Right.

And I don't know if this bill in act. I think what you have is less transferring, but still a lot of transferring. Yeah. So there's still be free agency. Now, does less transferring turn into different ways of allocating money towards high school players? For sure. Does this re-ignite the recruiting realm? You and I are going to the Personnel Symposium here in Nashville.

today where the college football personnel people all get together and talk. I bet if we ask those people, what is your plan for now and what is your plan for if this bill passes? It's different. For sure. Because it would change that. And so we'll see what happens. But as we record this right around noon Eastern time on Monday, the expectation is that this will get to the Senate floor for a vote sometime this week. which by the way is much different than what we thought on Friday morning.

And they don't schedule something for a vote unless they think they have the votes to pass. And remember it's the Senate, so you need 60 to break the filibuster. They feel confident, at least as of Monday morning, that they've got more than 60 votes. Yeah. Very, I think when and if this happens later in the week, we have to have a real discussion of what is it going to be like to be a fan on Friday. Like explaining people what they're looking at now. Yeah. We still got to do a little schoolhouse rock because then we've got to get through the house.

House of Representatives. Yeah, well, you can sing it for them. And handicap that one as well. So my buddy flew all the way from Scotts of Arizona to hear you sing that sound. I'm just a bill on the hill, buddy. We'll talk about this more as the week goes on, though, because, you know, again, we have not talked about much of it on this show. We talk about it all the time.

My other show, the College Sports Enquirer on Yahoo, because that audience is a little wonkier. That's the Brainiac show, yeah. Than this audience. But now it is a realistic possibility. It is something to talk about. we can talk about what real-world applications it would have if it actually happened. So there's a lot to it.

There's the Lane Kiffin provision. We didn't even get into that. That's another thing we can talk about if it gets closer to passage. We can break down all the different aspects. Before we go on to the next thing, what would you, what do you think the odds are? Let's just make it a polymarket thing. Will this pass? Yes.

What's your percentage? So I was saying 15% yes. for most of the last few months. Will it pass the Senate? I mean, all the way through where this turns into how college football runs. So now I'm going to go 50% yes. Okay, which is wild improvement in the last four days.

Yeah, because if the Senate passes it, I imagine there will be people in the House of Representatives who oppose it, but this is also something that Donald Trump would like to happen. He would consider a legislative win. so if he tells the Republicans in the House, who are the majority, vote for this, a real good chance it'll pass.

Okay. So, yeah, that's where they're at. Big, like, this is, like, Eric Schmidt, the senator from Missouri, who was involved in negotiations on this thing. He tweeted the Undertaker Giff on Friday night. Like, where he rises up out of the casse. That was appropriate.

That was very appropriate. So we'll see what happens the rest of the week. But they're very optimistic compared to this time last week. One more thing before we go. The Tommy Castellanos ruling is what I'm going to call it. A federal judge in Colorado ruled that members of the class of 2022 who played four years of college football

and were out of eligibility after last year, because the NCAA has now ruled that you can play five for five, this federal judge says everybody from the class of 22 who played four in four now can play this year too. This was always going to happen, by the way. There was always going to be some sloppage when it came to changing eligibility timeline. Yes. And my thinking was that the schools knew this, and they said, we may lose the class of 22 battles so we can win the five for five war.

Yeah. And you'll get having more substantial. Because remember, there's the age limit. They're basically trying to keep the European pro basketball players from coming in. There's a lot more to this than that. also they just wanted to simplify things, get rid of the waiver process that has generated a lot of the lawsuits.

But, yeah, this was always going to be a problem. The guy, you were going to have to cut it off somewhere and the people right at the cut off, we're going to see you. We're going to get upset. And so that's what happened. I call it the Tommy Castellanos rule because Tommy Castellanos is one of those players. The most high-profile player.

Who did red shirt, who could theoretically come back. Now, Pete Nacos was explaining this to me like I'm a five-year-old today because I needed it. But there are a couple of lawsuits. There's one in Tennessee and one in Ohio, where the plaintiffs in those lawsuits

are allowed to enter the transfer portal for a 10-day window. The others are not. Now, I don't know if, let's say this does hold up, which again, this also might not hold up as a district court judge in Colorado. So this is going to go, I believe, to the 10th Circuit.

I'm just looking here down at the date. It's August. I know. Okay. The Tenth Circuit could say we disagree with the district court. What the NCAA is doing is fine. And then all of a sudden it, poof, it evaporates. But with football, it's a lot less complex.

We're talking about players who, it's not that many because you had to play four in four years. If you redshirted, you're already out. You're done anyway. If you, you know, there are other factors. So we're only talking about that. that subset of players. And so like Tommy Castellanos, theoretically right now, if he wanted to play,

I think we'd have to play for Florida State. Right. Which if you were Mike Norvell, you'd probably take him. I mean, I guess there's no, the other thing I don't know is the back end of this. Aren't their roster limits?

There are. They'll kick off a walk on and then pay M.I.L. in order to get them onto the roster. But you may not be at 105 right now. Yeah, I don't know what Florida State's total number is off the top of the head. Maybe you have somebody not show up. Maybe you had to, like that.

Yeah. So that's the tricky part. But, you know, it's not that many players, but it is fascinating that some people could get some depth. Because you could actually have gone undrafted, and I believe there'll be guys who were in NFL mini camps, who maybe already got cut, who could probably come back. So that's the tricky part is figuring out who qualifies, who doesn't. Well, the thing that's also interesting about that, too, is that if you are in an NFL mini camp or you were coming up, very shortly into your college or your NFL career you might not be an NFL player but you certainly could be a difference maker uh in college but I also don't know if anybody's going to be

adding a star player to their team that's going to like drastically alter um the the thought process of what we think for that team so I I don't know there's a list of players Pete was telling me a few of them I'm trying to remember who they were but like who are the it is not going to be it's not a lot of guys you know yeah it's a lot of guys who played solid careers who could be solid depth pieces or start i mean solid starters in places but it's not going to be a huge earth-shattering thing for college football ari there is something breaking news on monday that is very very interesting woo the u s c notre dame series is back as of 2030 now that's a long time to wait but does it really suck that it's going to be gone for four years before it comes

back, yes. But it will be back week one at the LA Memorial Coliseum in 2030. They will also meet in week one of the 2013 season and they will play in one of the first three weeks of the season in 2013. Pete Nacos reporting that this also means Notre Dame Indiana is not going to happen. The Notre Dame Indiana 2030 game. That would have been fun. But Hallelujah? Is that what we're, is that what we say? Yeah, I mean, this, this series needs to be played, period. For the sake of college football. Now, why did it go away?

Well, one, the main reason is USC, their Big Ten schedule is quite a bit more challenging, they feel like, than what their Pack 12 schedule was. And so they got out of it. Now, they were willing to play under limited circumstances, and the circumstances they gave Notre Dame really weren't possible on short notice. But what they wanted was to move that game to the beginning of the season.

Because remember, when they played in South Bend, traditionally they would play in October, and when they played in L.A., they would play at the end of the season. They would play the last game of the season. Notre Dame wanted that, or excuse me, USC wanted that game moved to the beginning of the season,

and so that's where it will be when it comes back. Which, by the way, great for us. Oh my God. Off seasons are so much better when week one's insane. Well, and that's what we've talked about this year with terrible week one games. Notre Dame is actually trying to play a good one. They're playing Wisconsin.

Yeah. When they scheduled this game, Wisconsin was a lot better than it had been. Yeah. So they're trying. But we need more good week one games. So this is great. I'm glad they're getting back. That's the tone for the entire off season.

Yeah. I mean, how many hours have we spent talking about? Well, middle of the season games. USC's schedule this year and imagine that they were starting with Notre Dame instead of San Jose State. Yeah. Well, who knows what college football is going to look like in 2030. That's a nasty, nasty schedule. It's a very short time away, but a very long time away.

Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, it might be a whole new world out there. But I'm excited that at least they're back on the schedules. It sucks that we have to wait, but it was just not right. It felt wrong that we didn't get them for any period of time for them to be in it. So, 2030, at USC, week one. 2031, I'm assuming at Notre Dame, week one, and then sometime in the first three weeks of the season in 2032 and 233.

I hope they decided to sign this thing for 75 more years so that we don't have to worry about it going away again. Yeah. Has anything ever been signed for 75 years? I'm sure there's been some. I imagine some of those in-state rivalry contracts probably have incredibly long dates or the state-led just later got involved and mandated it. My number one thought here, Andy, is that there are so many different things

in college football that are complicated as we just got done talking about the government's involvement in rulemaking. But I can't stand when people in college football take the easy things and mess them up. Yeah. And the easy things are play these games. Yeah. Just play these games.

Notre Dame and USC should play each other every season. That's it. I don't care when they play. Just play the game. And now that's what they're. they're going to do starting in 2030. And good for them for doing it, too, because there was some question of whether they would actually come to the table. They kept saying... Well, Notre Dame wanted to.

Yeah. I don't think there was any question Notre Dame wanted to. And USC, we'll see, you know, look, this year's going to tell us a lot about USC and its fitness to compete in the Big Ten. They're either going to do it or they're going to change and find a way to do it. Yeah. I think that's kind of where USC's at on that. Yeah. And by then, who knows?

Maybe they'll be... They'll have arrived. They might have arrived. Or maybe they'll be a new coach. I don't know. We'll see. But I'm happy that they're on the schedule. And that's a,

as we're looking at a USC helmet across the way here, it's good to see that back on the schedule. Yeah. This is one that I got to say, Ari, when they decided not to do it this year, I was worried. Because they said all along,

hey, we want to do this, we want to do this, we want to do this. But I was worried it wasn't coming back. I was worried they keep kicking the can down. Me, the hardest thing about, way to not bring it back. About canceling it is not playing it the first time. And then once you don't play it, then you have the out.

So I'm happy for both of them. And I'm happy for college football fans who get this back. Yeah, this is good news for everybody. And hey, what a way to end Monday's show. It's just when we're together, magic happens. That's right. That's right. We're going to go hang out in Nashville.

We got meetings here at On 3. We've got the Personnel Symposium. We're going to learn a lot about how rosters get put together in college football. talk to some of our favorite personnel people who listen to the show. And it's going to be a very fun week. We'll have a lot of goodies for you this week. And it sounds like there's going to be quite a bit of news this week. And also thanks to Polly Market, we're excited to kick off our partnership here.

It feels good to have our first Polly Market episode together. We will be relying on those markets throughout the season. And we're still going to have our PIC show. We're still going to do all those things. It's going to be good time. You can use Polly Market for all that stuff, the, the, spreads will drop on, you know, Sunday nights and we'll be talking about them on the PICS show early in the week, and it won't change anything we do, really. Just we're going to be making

trades. Nothing better. We'll talk to you tomorrow.