Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Playoff bracket reveal LIVE | Will Alabama sneak in? | Who gets home games?

Episode Date: December 8, 2024

You’ve had Wendy’s Nuggs dipped in sauce. But have you had them covered in sauce? Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker, try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs.(0:00-17:58) Intro; Previewing what rankings will be(17:59-19:47) Wendy's Saucy Nuggs(19:48-34:29) Bracket Revealed(34:30-42:53) Evaluating the Bracket(42:54-44:21) Spreads of Games Released(44:22-49:47) Ranking the First Round Matchups(49:48-52:55) Times Revealed, ConclusionWatch live with Andy and Ari as the College Football Playoff bracket is revealed! Will SMU or Alabama get the final at-large spot? How far will Penn State and Texas drop after losing conference title games?   We break it all down…Watch us on YouTube instead! https://youtube.com/live/RoJ8WV0G9dw Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

That time we are going to learn who is playing in the college football playoff, where they are playing, when they are playing. And Ari, I think our bracket projection is going to be wrong, but not because we are wrong, but because the committee is not thinking about this the way it's supposed to. Yeah, no, it's like crazy to think that our bracket projection is probably going to be wrong when it's based on resume. So like it's going to be interesting to see, but you know, throughout the last week or so, you've seen me argue with Tennessee fans about a super basic thing and that is quality wins mean the most. So that isn't to rehash that discussion.

That is to rehash the notion that it should be true for everybody and including in Tennessee's favor today when they release the bracket. So, you know, I was but I was amazed. I don't know. Not amazed is probably the wrong word shocked. The a people ballots came out today. The individual final a people ballots. How many a people voters had Notre Dame either third or second?

And it's like, what year are we living in? 96. Where you're just going off the loss column number. That's ridiculous. Look at it critically. And I don't think the committee is going to look at it that critically because what they should do, and it's what they always said they would do do is clean sheet of paper every week. We're going to reevaluate. Well now you've got the situation where Ward Manuel said last week that it's locked in

Rich Clark, who's the new head of the CFP. I had an athletic director text me this morning and say, Hey, Rich Clark told us. ADS that it's locked in. So it's a new rule. I don't. So it's a new rule. I don't know if it's a new rule. It certainly wasn't the rule before. I mean, I don't even know it's a rule. This is the 11th year. Is it a guideline that they've decided?

Is this the 11th year? Because I've never won in the 11 years or the 10 years previously. Didn't we always hear clean sheet of paper? Clean sheet of paper. Clean sheet of paper. Yeah, clean sheet of paper. No projecting forward and reevaluating every single week, which is what clean sheet of paper. Yeah, clean sheet of paper. No projecting forward and re evaluating every single week, which is what clean sheet of paper. I don't understand where that came from, or why you would even box yourself into saying that, like all you're doing is limiting yourself. Yeah, Lord manual said it last week, the committee chair, Rich Clark is not the he's not a member of the committee. He's the former head

of the US Air Force Academy. He's the one who runs the college football playoff. Now he took over for Bill Hancock. So he was providing information to athletic directors last week on a call and that's where that came from. So I think Ari we had Ohio State at five. I think they're going to have Notre Dame at five. Okay but let's let's get into the other one because Nick Saban just popped up on the screen on the ESPN broadcast and Sharp burgundy blazer. Yeah crimson blazer Am I are we sure because last night we felt pretty sure that SMU was not going to be punished for losing the SEC Championship game

It was still being the field. Are we sure about that? Are we sure Alabama's not getting in? I mean, are we are we allowed to be sure about anything at the moment? Like, I mean, I don't know that we are because if we are already, you know, acknowledging that the resume and the bracket are gonna be varied, then why would I be certain of anything?

You know, what's the point in that? So, you know, the thing that I think is interesting, Andy, is that a lot of people, and rightfully so, because I lived my life this way too, are looking at the fan tool and the Vegas lines and they're putting it together based on what Vegas thinks. The thing that I'm interested in that is one, there's no mole in the committee room. Two, we don't know what they're doing because it's people and they're removing the data from it. Yeah.

Like, you know, Vegas odds, whether it be a game or anything else are based solely on data, right? And our projection is based solely on data. Now, the thing that I think is interesting is, is that if our projection is wrong, which has Ohio state five, then we no longer are in a world of reason. Like we can, we can explain our bracket better than Ward Manual could explain whatever they put out there today, right?

Now part of it is the two of us put it together and we mostly agreed. I don't think we had a major disagreement. Well, because we let facts and data guide us. But those 13 people will not agree and Ward Manual then has to translate that into one voice, which. Like I'd have a problem too. So here's the number one team that like, okay, listen, we know that the Alabama SMU debate is going to be because who gets in is so much higher stakes

than what your seat is. But the team that I think is interesting in this regard is Penn State, right? Like, what do you do with Penn State? So Penn State was a one loss team going into the conference championship game. And I thought they played their best game of the year on Saturday night. I think Penn State has a lot to be happy with, with what they saw, even if it manifested in the loss, we have Penn State falling to nine. And the reason why we do is because we used quality wins, strength, the schedule metrics to guide that decision.

So I think the Vegas odds show that Penn State might be sixth behind Notre Dame at five, which is what a lot of people are, are, and explained to me if you look side by side at the blind resume that you put together last night, if you try to compare Penn State's resume with Tennessee's, like who's got a better resume? Like all the reason why Tennessee fans got mad at me last week, because I said it's just basic math. It's simple. Like, Tennessee has a reason to be mad this time. That's why you put Ohio State ahead of Tennessee for a reason.

Yeah. Better wins. And again, like, it's not feelings. It's based on data and facts. So, like, if I was arrogant and an asshole last week about Ohio State being ranked ahead, then it wouldn't be justified for me to ignore that Tennessee could get screwed today. Because Tennessee should be ranked in front of Penn State for the same reasons why I said Ohio State should have been in front of them last week. So if you start departing from that, you put Notre

Dame at five, you're only worried about Notre Dame. They've got one quality win over Army, right? So they have a quality win, but you're putting record in quality win ahead. And I think that like Notre Dame being at five doesn't like make me mad. Like they're 11 and one, and they have a quality win. I don't care where they wind up. And honestly, if you're getting a home game, great. You really shouldn't care one way or the other.

Yeah. It'd be nice if you got the easier draw, but the easiest draw may not be getting the 12. But the thing that irritates me more than anything, whether it be the final bracket or the bracket that they released during the week. And you know, people think that we complain a lot, but I think that part of it is just analysis is if you were going to rank 12 teams, then use the same criteria throughout the all the entire ranking.

Right. Don't make your ranking for Notre Dame be based on them being 11 or one. And then and then and then penalizing another team who's also 11. It's like put Notre Dame at five and Indiana at 11. Is this like, okay, well, like what? Yeah. Notre Dame and Indiana are both 11 and one. Yeah.

One has, I guess Army's a better win than any of Indiana's wins, right? But I think, I think we're gonna be at the point now where Notre Dame blowing out Army is like the chief bullet point for rationalization of why they should be five, which is insane to me, but also to Andy last week when I went on the rant on our show, I said that the college football playoff committee rankings aren't difficult. If you play a harder schedule, you have more margin for error.

If you play an easy schedule, you have less margin for error. But that's not going to play out with Notre Dame at five. That's not going to play out in some of these different cases. And also too, like Texas and Penn State, for instance. Yeah. They're very similar. How do you like, it's just like be consistent. And I think if you put Ohio state at nine or eight, which is where I think most

people think they're going to be, then Ohio state being ranked at eight or nine is based on separate criteria because they're only one of three teams that have beaten multiple playoff teams at the moment. So you know that I don't care where they put Ohio State like if it were up to me they wouldn't even be in the playoff you know it'd be a four team field and we'd be having our different argument but if they're going to be in it and you're going to rank teams based on a certain set of criteria then use the criteria across the board. Yeah. Also, I realize some of you are watching us and not the ESPN stream. Maybe we're on

a second screen for you. I hope we're the first screen and maybe you just got the sound turned up. So does it look to you like Kirk Herbstreet has been imprisoned in Star Wars? In Star Wars. Yeah. Like he's on a Star Destroyer somewhere And there's stormtroopers behind him guarding him. Where is he? Is he in a locker room with the lights turned off? Is that what that is? I can't tell if that's a green screen that's supposed to look like that or he's in an actual locker room But yeah, I do look like he he he's been imprisoned By the Empire and so I don't know if we need to send Han Solo on a rescue

mission, Han and Luke on a rescue mission to get... Was Han the good guy? Kirk? Han was the anti-hero. What does that mean? Harrison Ford, buddy. He's a rogue. You're making it worse.

Just stop. He's a smuggler, but he's a good guy. Do you want to like... Yeah, we'll talk about this off the air in English. making it worse, just stop. He's a smuggler, but he's a good guy. Do you want to like, yeah, we'll talk about this off the air in English. Yeah, so, okay. Well, like, so do you want to talk about Bama and SMU? We have to talk about Bama and SMU now.

What is this chat gonna look like? What is the internet gonna look like? What is college football, the discourse gonna look like if Alabama shows up as the last at large team? You know what the problem is? What's the problem? football, the discourse going to look like, if Alabama shows up as the last at large team. You know what the problem is? What's the problem?

Alabama fans and SEC fans have been told for the past two weeks that Bama's going to get in. And I think that was fundamentally wrong. And I'm proud to not be one of those people. If you go look at my brackets from the last two weeks, Alabama has been unequivocally out. And we actually argued about it last week in Waco. So I think there's this sense of expectation that they were going to get in. And then last night it went about as poorly as it possibly could have

for Alabama, right? Like there was no result that could have been worse. Losing on the last second field goal. So I think that there were a lot of people in the SEC and just in the country that anticipated that Alabama would just get the benefit of the doubt and get in. Well, a Alabama isn't nearly as good as they've been under saving this year. And then two, they've, they've just, you know, not have that coach there. He's on TV right now. He's not, he's not coaching the team. So like, I just don't think in the past, when Alabama has gotten the benefit of the out, Andy, it's because we knew based on the way that that roster was assembled and the way that they recruited, that they were probably going to beat whoever got in over them. You cannot say that this year, which means that you can't say that anymore. You used to be able to say it. You can't say it anymore. So I think that they're in deep, deep trouble. And at the same time too, if they, so let's just play the game. All right. Alabama screen popped up Alabama in the field, right? Explain it for me, Ward manual. Well, Alabama has a strong roster and they beat Georgia,

which was our number two team. And I got nothing. That's it. That's it. That's it. And then when that's it and it's completely and utterly undifferentiated from Ole Miss. He's gonna say they have wins against three teams in their top 25, which Missouri is one of the teams in their top 25. Was Missouri that good? Because Missouri got producer River Chimes in. I don't know if you might pick that up. No, no. Real peanut gallery going on. So Missouri got crushed by

Bama, crushed by Texas A&M. Now they did play a really good game against South Carolina that they ended up losing. But it's a it's a strange situation. Missouri, I guess Missouri did beat Oklahoma though. So Alabama didn't know our old pal Chris Vanini has been tweeting about this all like the

last two weeks and I just like laugh because it seems dramatic but also I kind of know what he's trying to say. So he's been saying basically that if SMU gets left out that the CFP committee moving forward is going to lose goodwill. It'll be an existential crisis. Actually Paul Feinbaum said it really well this morning and I wish I had a thought of this comparison. Uh, well actually as a result of Trump, um, said it really well this morning. And I wish I had a thought of this comparisons. I actually think it's a really good comparison. It's essentially a Supreme court

decision, but not a nine, nothing. When like the, uh, like the case involving the NCAA, this is, this is like a five, four Supreme court decision where one person swing can swing it either way, but it is going to be the law of the land for like 70 years until it possibly gets revisited again.

So- Why is that the case? There's no such thing as precedent. Not in this. And it could just be different people next year who make a different decision. Like, I don't know if I buy that. They do rotate the committee.

And also, next year may be the last year that it works like this. Because I do think there's going to be be along with a bump to 14 teams, probably some more questions about the process of selection. So the resume comparison up here that ESPN has is Alabama strength of schedule strength. The record is ninth SMU's are 15. By the way, these are all ESPN FBI stats they're using.

So strength of schedule ranked 16th for Bama, 60th for SMU, wins over teams over 500, over 500. They leave the 500 out because Alabama has two losses that they would add in there if it was just 500. Right, right. Like that's just a very, that stat right there is the reason why people hate ESPN. That's bullshit, dude.

Are you seeing that? I am. I am. I am enjoying this very much. They only put over 500 and not 500. Not 500. That's right. Not 500. 6 and 6. You can lose to a 6 and 6 team as long as you... They have two losses to 6 and 6 teams and they just completely disregard that?

That's insane. That's absolutely insane that graphic. And that my friends is why stats are stupid because you can move them and mold them into any way that you want which is what I've been complaining about for the past 10 days. That is, that's insane. It has made Alabama's resume look better than SMU's on TV because they omitted the two shitty losses they had. What's interesting is it. Unreal.

But it almost looked the same because SMU's record against over 500 was five and two. That was insane. That is pretty funny. What are we doing? Dude, that is the ESPN agenda. That's what it is. I don't know. I roll my eyes when people say that stuff like, oh yeah, dude, the ESPN is just like

in a rig the whole thing. And it's like when you see shit like that it's like come on man show the real context here the real context is that Alabama has lost the two six and six teams and that has to matter it has to and if it doesn't then just fucking put them in and just don't even play it's stupid I say you really feel but is that not like that's stupid? Is it not? It's funny. Do you think it's stupid? Why would they do that? I don't think they did it on purpose. Oh, Chris versus they did. Listen, I don't. You want to know why? Because I work in this field and we'll,

we'll take you behind the curtain here. Well, they're drumming up controversy. We went live. One of our computers went down and river was about to, to have a heart attack and we almost didn't get on the air. There's some stat monkey at ESPN. Yeah. It is like, and somebody's like make a graphic for this now. And they're like, okay, I guess I'll do teams over 500. Like we're, we're attributing this to something

nefarious when it is probably some lowly paid compared to Kirk Herbstreet and Desmond Howard and Reese Davis person. And that graphic, fair enough. Just going. And that graphic, if you're watching us and you're watching ESPN at the same time as we are talking, looking at it, that graphic made Alabama look like it had a better resume because it cut off the point where the terrible data

points were Alabama actually come out and have a difference. So I think we're going right here, Andy. I sound like an Alabama hater. Andy, if this was- Great question from Craig in the chat. If this was Mississippi or South Carolina instead of Alabama, would there be discussion about including them over SMU?

I think so. Cause I have said that if I had a preference in that cluster, we talked about the cluster of Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami, if you gave me a vote, if I were in the committee room, the team I would stump for in that situation is Ole Miss because I think they have the higher ceiling of all of those and they have the best win because Alabama and Georgia both beat Ole Miss, but the way Alabama beat Georgia and the way Ole Miss beat Georgia were very different. So I think it would be the same discussion

with Ole Miss or South Carolina. Well, because you gave Ward manuals explanation in his voice and you basically just said, you think, do you think Jim Harbaugh would have come back to Michigan if it had been me instead of word manual, just me doing the word manual voice,

trying to negotiate with them? Why is Alabama in? Because they haven't went over Georgia. So does Ole Miss and they're out. Yeah. But that's not, see, we get to cherry pick as part of the committee. You and I don't get to cherry pick

because we got the chat to keep us honest. They don't have the chat. Like they should, they should have a YouTube chat that asks the questions in real time of the committee members. Like, wait, did you think about this? But did you think about this? But did you think about this? It, uh, that, that graphic has got me in a pretzel. That's, that's insanity. Elias. I like to imagine Statler and Waldorf on the committee. That would be good. Oh my God. So they are really piling the commercials in. Yeah, I've seen them getting down to business a little bit quicker. We'd know by now.

72% of the chat says SMU should get in with over 1000 votes. All right, let's run a Wendy's ad right now. Let's talk about spicy. 72% of the chat says SMU should get in with over a thousand votes. Alright, let's run a Wendy's ad right now. Let's talk about spicy, talk about saucy nugs before we get to the really saucy stuff, although I think you got Ari's sauciest take right there. Let's talk saucy nugs right now. Ari, you're officially welcome to On3. We are presented by Wendy's, the Saucy Nugs. That's our specialty item.

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garlic parm. So you okay. I like the garlic parm is a very like full savory. The other like the the honey barbecue's got your sweet. Like this is your ultimate savory here. Buttery and savory nothing better than washing it down with a crisp zero too you know what i mean oh yeah a little coke zero action now that's a spicy buffalo that's tremendous i think that's kind of the perfect that might be my favorite this is the parmesan garlic and this one i haven't tried yet which one it's a little bit hotter parmesan garlic oh this is I haven't tried yet. Which one is a little bit hotter? Parmesan, Parmesan garlic. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. That's pretty damn good. See this. I keep changing my favorite. And I think that's the point of this exercise. Yes. That's my favorite one.

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While ESPN explains how this is all working, we know you know how this is all working, because you're the people who watch our show and listen to our show, and we've been talking about it for years at this point. We know how it's gonna work. But they're explaining it to the casuals and I just I'm fascinated by this. Fascinating. How long is the show today? I

was under the impression that we were going to get it. NFL games at one Eastern. So they got to be off the air by then. I know, but they know everybody's going to switch to the NFL. I want the answers. I'm like the type of person who watches a documentary and at the end of the documentary if the The ending of it isn't the answer that they've been talking about I go crazy. So Brett McMurphy is it reported 21 minutes ago that SMU is in and Alabama's out. Okay, the source sources told Brett there's a breach! There's a breach! We call them sauces with Brett, so I don't know which sauce that was, whether that was

the spicy garlic parm or the spicy honey barbecue. But that's what his sauce has told him. I don't know. There's a leak. They got a leak in the room? The leak is to eradicate that leak. That's right. Well, they can put him in the same prison uh that Kirk Herbstreet is broadcasting from today. That's the first

time that a reporter scooped the playoff, right? Yes. I've never seen that before. We right. We remember they. Oh, here we go. Let's do this. Here we go. All right. Number one, Illinois. Number one is Oregon. The least surprising thing ever. That's the easiest one. This is this is great. Alright, I'm glad they're going from top to bottom on this. Testing.

Want me to sing while we're waiting? They've heard you sing enough to George's number two. Alright, Georgia. And they're going to go to right, Georgia. Yeah, and they're going to go to a commercial break. Well, I would, I would squeeze a commercial in before I get to the, uh, the number 11. What is it called?

The cliffhanger? That's right. That's right. You just leave them, leave them wanting more. I just can't wait to, well, this is, this is a dramatic pause here because this next one's probably going to be Boise State.

Oh, now we got a resume. We got a Boise State, Arizona State, Clemson does not even belong in this in this graphic. We got to gin up some drama here. This is going to be Boise State, right? I think it has to be Boise State. Now, we had to turn the subtitles on so it didn't mess with our stream. But at the same time, the subtitles are blocking the stats. But I think I've had enough of the ESPN stats today anyway. So. So. So.

So. Key wins, pit. SMU's a key win though. I know. Key wins, pit. Those two things that should never exist next to each other in the history of the world. Arizona States run.

The one thing I appreciate about Arizona States, and I think Arizona States going to wind up the four seed, but there's no States run recently has been pretty impressive. Yeah. The teams they've beaten and shot out of a cannon to it. Yeah. Like Iowa States good and they beat the crap out of boys. He stayed. Number nine. Stop it. Ari. They're number nine. No, they're three. Boys. The state is number three Ari. They're number nine. No, they're three. Boys estate is number three. And they are happy. Now I like I like this because we spent all year. You were right about this. You were on this. You were on this early because I was telling you that they would just put in the power conference teams in the top four. And that's not what happened. And now the thing will be interesting is it's probably helping people understand the rules a little better because i think the assumption and like i remember early in the season on an espn show you had espn talent saying well the first four are guaranteed for the conference champions of the power conferences and i'm like that's not true yeah like it's the four highest ranked conference champs arizona state is number four so so far we're four for four and yeah here's we're about to to our bracket's about to

have the wheels fall off though. The calculus here is interesting because the five seed used to be the most advantageous seed, but because Boise State is three instead of four that changes it makes number six actually better. Right? Would you rather not play or rather play? Would you rather not play? Would you rather have to play Boise State or would you rather

have to play Arizona State? Which is you think is the easier drop? I think if you're a team who has been a national championship contender the entire season that those are negligible. But I think I would rather play Boise than Arizona State right now. Because if you can bottle up Ash and Gentie, you're probably going to win. And like also to like Kam Scadaboo is a really, really good Sam Levitt is the scary part with Arizona State.

So I think Arizona State is just. It's just a vibes, a vibe situation. I'll say Maddox Madsen. The Boise State quarterback has played really well down the stretch being the number six seed now is probably a better spot than being the number five seed, right? So by the way, they're also revealing the actual rankings here. So Oregon and Georgia are number one and number two in their rankings. Boise State is number nine and Arizona State is number 12, which means your last at large spot is going to be the number 10 team, right? Because Clemson is not going to be ranked. We know Clemson won't be ranked ahead of Arizona State. That's right. It'll be the number 10. So Clemson is ranked below number 12. Yeah. This is a Clemson.

All right. They're the 12 seed. So we're five for five. They're the six. Oh, Clemson is the 16th ranked team. So they moved them up one spot for beating SMU. We're five for five so far, right? We are.

It's the wheels are coming on. No, they're not, man. Let's just stay strong. The wheels are coming off. We're going to be very wrong. It's five through nine. It's horseshit, Andy. Horseshit, Andy. I think we're gonna get ten right, but I don't think we might not get any other ones right.

Why are you why are you like not trusting the system right now? Listen. We're doing it based on fact. Oh Ari, I'm gonna be insufferable if we might not be in right. Yeah. I'm gonna be like, I told you so. We told you. You should have listened to us, but it's better for better for the show for wrong because then we have a lot of talking points of inconsistent thinking so we're not wrong They're wrong. That's that's what it is. All right. Here's the Texas What What I Don't think that's what anybody was thinking The Notre Dame being number five. So Texas is your number three team in the ranking.

So they just said, look, Texas and Georgia played an overtime game. We're only gonna drop Texas one spot in the ranking. Okay, so now we're in banana land. I don't know where we're going from here. So Clemson's going to Texas week one. There's a playoff game in Austin, Clemson, Texas. So now we're not, so does that set the precedent that they're not punishing anybody? Like does that mean that SMU was in?

Because like if you're not going to punish your team for losing in the conference championship game, then that means that they're like, so Penn State's five? If Penn State's the next team. Is Penn State going to be next? If Penn State's next, then that's what's happening. And if they're not, then we're inconsistent thinking and I want to throw a chair at that monitor we're looking at right now. But if, okay, but if they are thinking consistently, do you feel better about that? I think consistency is good. Yeah, I don't know that I agree with the process, but at least it

was consistent. Yeah, because that will make sense. Penn State is the next one. So that makes sense. Okay, so Penn State is the four, number four ranked team and is the six seed took the committee took a hard stance on not penalizing conference championship game losers, which means that SMU should be. I think SMU is going to be in. Yeah. I think that's what that means. Now here's here's the big question.

Who's hosting? We got two more hosts. One of them is going to be Notre Dame and I'm thinking one of them is going to be Ohio State. Yeah. Because Ohio State was about Tennessee. So everybody was wrong. Yeah. Okay. So I think Notre Dame is the next one we're going to see. Yep. Which, so. Did anybody get this projected right? Did you see anybody doing it like this? I got I have to go back and look. I didn't see Texas as a five in a lot of projections. Notre Dame is is the seven. So yeah, so that's the first polite golf clap from the Notre

Dame team. I like whatever we lost South Bend over there. What? That's the go Dame team. They're like, yeah, whatever. We lost South bend country club over there. What? That's the goog man. They're in the goog. Are they, they're clapping in unison too. You know what that's called? Self-discipline. All right. One more host. We think this is going to be Ohio state, right?

Uh, I, I don't know what I'm, I'm not going to pretend to know what they're doing over there, which means it should be, which means the walls fans are coming to your neck. My neck? Yeah. Well, they gotta be mad at somebody. They don't have word manuals. I was pro balls this morning. I got I got pro. I was involved Twitter on a positive. Still your fault. It's still your fault if they don't wind up posting home game. I'm so happy. I didn't pre write this column because I would it would have been Ohio State. So home games, Austin State College, South Bend, Columbus. Yeah. Okay, so Tennessee might actually end up playing at Ohio State. Very, very likely or it's either Tennessee going to Ohio State or going to South Bend. I would think they're going to Ohio

State. Yeah, Ohio State playing two times against Oregon, which means that neither of our saucy takes are right. Your saucy take was they would only play once and mine was that they would play three times. What if Tennessee beats Ohio State? Are you saying we're both wrong? You said they would only play once. Well, they're not going to play twice. Oh, yeah, you're right. Yeah, I did kind of assume that based on the future line of what that yeah, the future. So Fandel put out a

future line on that game before all this came out. But you should not assume that Ohio State's beating any. Ohio State minus seven and a half, which I feel like is a little high. So three Northern games at home. Yeah, and then somebody's got to go to Austin and that somebody is the Clemson Tigers. I think we're going to get the Penn State. Are we going to get the Penn State Indiana game? There's Tennessee. All right so we have Tennessee going to Columbus. That's gonna be electric. What

an atmosphere that's gonna be. Tennessee fans coming at Ari's neck. Yeah. That I can't wait to see Knoxville invade Columbus. That's gonna be great. Yeah. Um also too like Tennessee fans spent the entire last week uh talking about how much better Tennessee is than

Ohio State. So, you can't wait to see it on the field. Um and that's a hell of a that's a hell of a path for Ohio State though. They got the hardest path I think. Oh yeah. But we also get the SEC team going north. The thing that the the big folks

always said the SEC doesn't want to come north they're scared of the cold. I say this to someone who lived in Knoxville for two years it's freaking cold there too. It was pretty cold in Nashville. I don't think Tennessee's gonna care about cold. I had to go buy a coat here. If it if it was like LSU that's a different story like those guys grew up in the warmth like Tennessee. They're not all from Tennessee. Some are from North of Tennessee and Tennessee is already cold. So yeah, so Penn State is ranked ahead of Ohio State. That makes no sense. But I understand at least they were consistent because like

I can't get angry at that because right Texas was ranked higher and they are they are saying we're not punishing you for playing in a conference. But could you imagine if Alabama gets in under this bracket? Why? Yeah, you'll have a beef. But I think we feel pretty safe that they're not. Yeah. We're going to find out.

There's Indiana. So Indiana's going to... Indiana to Notre Dame for the state championship. And who would have thought that in the first 12-team playoff, the only state to get two teams would be Indiana. That's Beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing So Notre Dame and Georgia seems like a likely matchup there. You know, I don't know maybe Indiana will show up So Penn State's got the easiest path then they get SMU and then Boise

We think it's SMU unless they're getting Bama. Here we go. Here we go. I would go to commercial break before this, but that's just me. They got NFL games to get to, so. Oh, here we go again with the graphic! It's your favorite graphic! They did it again! Wins over 500 teams. Yeah, when actually SMU's is good. Like they're they're. Well, I'm trying to now I got I don't have it off the top of my head how many six and six teams

SMU played. They beat all of the teams they played who are six and six if they played any. So that would increase their win total. And it would drop Alabama it would increase Alabama's loss total to three. Here we go again with the bullshit graphic. Okay. Okay. But. Just show us so we can look away and analyze this.

Come on. Now they're milking this for all this is worth. I mean, Kirk's gotta go back to the empire's holding cell and meet with Darth Vader after this. So. Penn State. James Franklin is like, you know, you talked about how making the playoff can't change everything.

If James Franklin gets SMU in the first round and then Boise in the second round. Oh man, yeah. And they don't make it to the semis. Oh god. It's gonna be scorcher for that guy. I was gonna say Penn State's in the semis, like he's living in the high life,

but you're right, if they don't get through this. Yeah. Then it's just like, what are you? And I think- That might be the column today. But everybody assumes that the group of five teams not gonna win a game. Like, Boise State can beat either of these teams. Yeah, I know.

Well, SMU can win. SMU can beat Penn State. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. You're telling me that SMU can? There's SMU. All right, SMU's in. All right, there it is. Okay, everybody can rejoice.

So inconsistent thinking, I think we can avoid, which is my number one pet peeve, right? Like is there any inconsistency with this? No, I think they went consistently and said, if you lost your conference championship game, we're not that worried about that. Now, here's what's interesting is SMU's number 10. So if SMU had won that game, and this is the margin,

and this is what's weird about this system and the kind of deliberate miss-seeding of it. SMU played a game where they were tied with 16 seconds left. It's their fault for letting Clemson get in the field goal range. But if Clemson misses that field goal and SMU goes on to win in overtime, SMU is the three seed. And now they're the 11 seed.

Okay, so now that this has come out, I thought I was going to be really angry. We were wrong, but this is the first time. We were wrong in a different way than I thought. was going to be really angry. We were wrong. But this is the first time in a different way than I thought, then we thought we would be. Yeah. So the thing that they have told us today, the prevailing message from the committee is that if you make your conference championship game, then you're good in our book. Yeah. And that's not always been the case. So like that, to me, is an interesting message for what goes back to what Rhett Lashley said,

and I'm the one who said, and I believe this, because we also have what the committee values and what they don't. Five members of the committee are sitting athletic directors. Like they value conference championship games. Those are important to their conferences. Yeah.

Those are cash cows for their conferences. They want conference championship games to matter. They do not want to punish people. But they also just emphasize that the results don't. To a certain extent. Because Texas losing, I mean, I guess having a buy in and not is important, but like, but like you don't. The result of the Texas Georgia SEC Championship was an over, it was an overtime game. Like, yeah, did, did Georgia definitively prove it was better than Texas when winning and losing is why you play.

I know yeah, I mean, but what I'm saying is is that. You are your solution for the 14 field is is that these games will matter more but like at the same time, the same thing in that field was at stake this weekend, which is if you win you get a buy

and if you don't you lose you don't. Yeah, and you know your ranking doesn't change all that much though. Like being the five seed for Texas, you know, in another year would have been the biggest reward for losing that game. But because Boise ended up being three instead of four, or the big 12 was a top four seed instead of the ACC, it didn't turn out to be that way. So who has, who has the easiest path and semis? It's Penn State. The hardest path of the semis is the winner of the Ohio State Tennessee game. Yeah,

because they have to play organ next. The winner of Notre Dame Indiana is going to New Orleans to play. Texas is a pretty advantageous path too. Yes, like Clemson. Let's not really. They played well, but they're not a great team, right?

So you know Texas is the five seat is still sitting pretty. Yeah. So five and six. So it should be Texas and Penn State at the end of the road. Like if we're going to do in the later on today, we're going to do videos. Well, Texas wouldn't be playing Penn State. Oh, yeah, right. I was looking at the bracket the wrong way. Yeah. Texas and Oregon would be fun and Georgia and Penn State could be fun if that's the way it goes. But I actually think hot take here. I know I've been up Notre Dame's ass all year, but like Notre Dame could win the national title on that side. I think Notre Dame more than ever could be-

Notre Dame has evolved considerably since that loss to Northern North America. Notre Dame playing Georgia isn't the same feeling as like Notre Dame playing Alabama in 2019. Here's why Notre Dame is scary for anybody. Notre Dame's defense is is elite. Notre Dame's offense has gotten a lot better as the season has gone on. Riley Leonard has figured out how he fits in that offense, what he does well. Like if Notre Dame beats Indiana, which I that's actually probably going to be a talk. I think that's gonna be a fun game in South Bend. If Notre Dame beats Indiana though. Notre Dame Georgia is a fascinating quarterfinal game. Yeah. Yeah.

But we have some Southern teams going North. We have one. Yeah. So. We have a little flavor of that. We have, you know, big brand against SMU going to Penn State but it's not the same thing if it's not an SEC team. No, but I also think too that like Indiana playing Notre Dame and for an in-state game

would be great. Yep. Tennessee, Ohio State is going to be electric because both of those teams I think could lose or both of those teams could go on to win the national title. Right. Yeah. You throw even and the thing is the difficulty of. Allows them to show, hey, we belong here because. If Tennessee beats Ohio State or Ohio State beats Tennessee,

either way, like you can see one of those teams beating Oregon. Yeah, on the right day. Yeah, I mean, Oregon is the number one seed and they're probably just like shit. I think about being Oregon right now. It's like, oh, I mean, they're going to be fair by whoever. I think you've got a harder road if you're Oregon than Penn State does the semi final. Yeah. And you got only got to win one game, but that one game's probably going to be harder than

the two games they have to win. Oregon beat Penn State last night and was rewarded with a harder trip to the semis, which is why they have to change it eventually. I don't think they'll change it for next year, but I think they will change it for 26 because that is like organ is getting punished here for being the best team in the country organ is getting punished. Yeah, but hey, you know what like no scorched earth for me. It's not an act when I get angry. I actually am like I am at peace with that. Is that okay? Are you with me on that? I am with you on that because all we want is

consistent thinking and if you want to reward the teams that actually played their schedules and made it to where they went then that's sports like that's what happens exactly play your games you win and you're rewarded with the team now I think that they're gonna have to clear up the seating situation as it pertains to like what happened to Oregon and Penn State but other than, like no team in there that didn't earn their way in. I don't think there's anybody that was like, if Alabama would have gotten in, it would have been like, oh, they didn't deserve it. Like everybody deserves it.

Right. Well, and the thing is the only people who are probably mad about this are Alabama fans who wanted their team in. Yeah. But right. And, and, and, right. And Greg Sankey would have liked one more SEC team. And Greg Sankey. Right, and Greg Sankey would have liked one more SEC team.

But I don't think there's a lot of beef with this. If you don't have a dog in the hunt, you don't really have a beef with this. You're like, all right, this makes sense. And like we said, we came into this going, our bracket's going to be wrong. But I'm actually glad we were wrong in the way we were wrong, as opposed to the way I thought we were gonna be wrong.

I was looking at the matchups there. Hey, River, can you throw that back up for a second so I can visualize it again? No double digit favorites in the first round games, in my opinion, right? No, which- Maybe Texas, 10? Maybe, yeah.

But the thing is- Maybe Notre Dame, Notre Dame might be a double digit favorite. The beauty of Texas Clemson though, is Clemson's roster talent. It's not an easy game. Gives them a shot. And how about K Club?

Going back to Austin. Love that. What a story. I mean, come on. Yeah, it's so funny how this sport just continually gives you those things, those little like pearls. You know, like, oh, this guy's going home or this guy played here or this is a rematch.

And you know what though? I feel like Tennessee and Ohio state are very similar this year. Their paths were similar, um, in the sense of like, Hey, you know, we, there's some, some new blood that, you know, the coaches, uh, you know, got a squad that he could probably win with. They were super exciting at the beginning of the year, hit some lumps in the middle of the year, you know, kind of got back up on the horse of your Tennessee, Ohio State's kind of limping. Like I think that like the that game could have been a

semi-final game if in the 14 field in another world. Like I don't know if what I just said made any sense, but I feel like they're very similar. If you wanted to do it, this is this is an interesting mix of the teams you were sick of. So you're sick of Georgia, you're sick of Ohio State, you're sick of Clemson, and the new blood you won. SMU, Indiana, Tennessee, in the college football playoff, Boise State gets a chance to play a game where if they win, they advance.

It is, they have not given us sites and everything. We've told you how the quarterfinals work. Basically, it goes by conference affiliation with the bowls, which is why Georgia would go to the Sugar Bowl instead of the peach. Why we think Boise State will be in the Fiesta Bowl, which if that's what happens, it's kind of appropriate because that's where they beat Oklahoma. That's where they got stuck playing TCU in the year that both of them are undefeated. And we pretty sure they put them together so that they didn't embarrass any power conference teams in the in their bowl games. So. I like that. I appreciate that. That's how that's going to work. When do we get game times and dates need to buy airline tickets? Lotus

asked in the chat that That's coming today. Yeah, we're gonna get that today. We also do. We also have to book travel. Well, the good news, Andy, is that you have home games in State College, Notre Dame, and Columbus. So it depends on what the Friday night game is. We might be able to hit two in two days. Don't put the Friday night game in Austin. Otherwise we are... We have to choose. We're at the mercy of the plane schedule. Which one would you choose? No, we'd go to the one in Austin and then fly to something. We're at the mercy of the plane. No, we'd go to the one in Austin and then fly to something. We at the mercy of the flight schedule, but we make it. Oh yeah, Austin would be electric. I've never covered a game in DKR.

There you go. Oh, so we do have a double digit spread. Producer River tells us. 11 and a half points on Texas. Yeah, and then I look at it too. It's possible that if you have the other ones, River, let me. But Notre Dame might be a dud. Okay. What are they? Notre Dame is minus seven and a half against Notre Dame against Indiana. Sorry. Penn State is laying seven and a half against SMU Ohio minus six and a half against Tennessee the Tennessee betters fast and furious put your Tennessee a river did you put your Tennessee bed in already are you like on Fandel right now you psychopath he's holding up the phone

that's a that's a man right that this is what he looked at me like this. I Get you I get you so You're taking the points Because they could lose by seven you're not going straight money line. I mean, I know you're a Tennessee fan I'm just like are you gonna buy it up to seven and a half? Are you gonna are you gonna be a man and just take it straight up? Should have gotten in on seven and a half. Wait, are you gonna? Are you gonna take money line? Are you gonna take the points? He's like, he doesn't have a microphone. You know that, right?

I know, but I just I'm curious. This is fun. It is. I mean, that's the essence of what we're doing here, right? Like we got fans, we got people excited. All right. That's the place like, where we can you put the matchups up again? What is the one game? If you were only allowed to watch one what's the one you can't miss in the first round? Tennessee Ohio State correct now Absolutely. Okay next one what if we're ranking the first round matchups, Tennessee, Ohio State is definitely our favorite

That's the one we have to see. Number two. Clemson, Texas. I would go with Notre Dame, Indiana. Yeah, I don't know. Well, and here's the other thing. We might both have Penn State SMU fourth. I think that could be a great game.

That would be my third. And then I think Notre Dame, Indiana would be my third and then I think okay, Indiana would be my fourth. I think Indiana deserves to be in. I'm not convinced that they're great. You don't know that but we don't know that we're going to find out but I was not impressed with the Ohio State showing. Here's the thing though.

You're giving coach SIGs two weeks. Yeah. No, I'm not saying they can't win. It's an in-state thing. It's an Emmett. I'm just saying two weeks in terms of like you have a whole body of work. You have all the film, but you know how I rank it when you asked me that what I'm most curious to see.

So like my morbid curiosity about whether or not Ohio State is a wounded duck is very very high on that. Well, I see like that's why the Tennessee Ohio State game is everybody's favorite here because of the psychology of it Yeah, it's it's not as much about Tennessee though It is because we've been waiting to see Tennessee get into this spot, but Ohio State where are they mentally? Yeah, but here's the thing too with that game is that if Tennessee loses I think Tennessee fans would be disappointed and rightfully so,

but also making the playoff in year one of Nico and you know, feeling good about where they're at as a trajectory. Like I don't think that like you scorch earth on like Josh Hyple if they don't win that game. Like if Ohio State loses to Tennessee, they might like burn down the horseshoe. Like that's like, and that's the thing. And I think we can agree. This Tennessee team is better almost everywhere except defensive tackle. But I think Ohio State probably Michigan team Ohio State just

lost it. Ohio State would probably. Yeah. Ohio State would much rather probably play like Clemson. Yeah. I think Ohio State has the hardest matchup in the first round against teams that they could have played. Yeah. Like they weren't going to play Texas in the first round. I didn't think so. Like it is. But the thing is like you take the mental thing out of the Ohio State, Tennessee game, because like what have we been saying all week since Ohio State lost to Michigan? They tried to beat Michigan at Michigan's game, which was stupid because why don't you just throw those receivers and see how that works out? There's no mental block with Tennessee. No, they don't you just throw those receivers and see how that works out?

There's no mental block with Tennessee. No, they don't have to play Michigan again. So maybe they'll, maybe they'll target Jeremiah Smith more than twice. And I mean, like, listen, I'm telling you right now, Oregon is not rooting for Ohio state in the first round. Oh, they played a very hard game against them the first time around. Um, Ohio state has the third best odds to win the national title and they're very similar to, uh, Georgia and Oregon for a reason. So, you know, that said, I don't know that I'm laying. I think I'm taking the points here. Like Ohio state,

which Ohio state's going to show up. We were doing this later. I don't want to like, yeah, we are going to have previews of all the first round games later today, Sunday on the on three sports YouTube channel. So get yourself subscribed so you can watch those because we are going to break all those down individually. But oh my goodness, this is going to be so much fun. Are you? This is going to be. So much fun that first week. I really love all these games like I think all of them could be entertaining. The one I the one I think could get out of hand. If things go wrong.

Is Texas Clemson, but Clemson's defense is good enough. Like we were what I'm actually going to change my pick here. Sorry Andy, like I think number two is SMU Penn State. Okay, where I'm thinking about it. It's like, can you imagine if SMU goes to state college and wins? And imagine that possibility. Yeah. The James Franklin angst would be extremely high.

What do you think would be worse? The James Franklin angst from losing to SMU in the first round at home or the Ohio State angst toward Ryan? Ohio State? No question. Yeah, because you're you're you're just like, I believe it compounds exponentially onto the Michigan game. But if they were to lose, I guess it wouldn't go to the staff of James Franklin, I think is one in 15 against top 10 teams. And SMU is the top 10 team.

Yeah, but the Ohio State Michigan thing is the stakes are. I mean, that's that's really bad. I just thought it was interesting. It's like James Franklin is like, OK, you got rewarded with the easiest path. Don't mess it up now like right, you know, like that. It's like on one hand it's good, but then on the other hand it's like you can't go up to the podium like you did last night and said we were capable of beating these teams and lose

SMU and like if Alabama were there like that's the thing that's difficult. I'm not convinced that Alabama would be, like I think from a perception standpoint, Penn State would have an easier time, but I don't think that Alabama would be the harder team to beat. Okay, well what do we think the spread would be in a Penn State Alabama game?

Penn State minus five or something? Penn State minus four. It would be very similar to the spread in this game. And that's- Especially after what we saw on Saturday night. And that's, Oh, we got time. Here we go. Okay. All right. So your, your Friday night game is in South Bend. Noon Saturday in state college is SMU Penn State. That's going to be on TNT by

the way. So Friday night Notre Dame, Indiana afternoon Saturday is Clemson, Texas and your night game Saturday is Tennessee, Ohio State. So it looks like you and I potentially will be going to Notre Dame and then driving to Columbus. I think that's what we're doing. I think that's probably the easiest thing to do. Uh Arizona State awaits the winner of Clemson, Texas in the Peach

Bowl. Oregon awaits the winner of Clemson Texas in the Peach Bowl. Oregon awaits the winner of Tennessee Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Boise State awaits the winner of SMU Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. And Georgia awaits the winner of Indiana Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. So those are those are how that works. Now the the quarterfinal games, those times and dates are already set. So you don't have to worry about that. The Friday night game is the fiesta bowl. The others were on Saturday and it goes peach, rose, sugar in terms of time slots. Dude, Oregon and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl would be a really like traditional feeling too. It would like that's it makes sense. But like Tennessee, Tennessee. Oh, that's all right. Ohio State gets a night game.

Oh yeah, that's funny. Do is wait till you're on ESPN to get a night game. Although that is that a that's not a TNT game. That's a that's a that's an ESPN. Could you imagine if Ohio State would have gotten the Tennessee game for Big Noon kickoff? Well, I mean the poor Penn State fans. Penn State didn't get it.

Because they would have done the white, like they would have done the whiteout if they were the night game. They're the noon game. So they get the feeling of big noon kickoff. Yeah. Man, what a couple of days that's gonna be. What a couple of days.

We get the battle for Indiana on Friday night, and then just a day. Oh yeah, so great bracket great bracket. Not a lot of angst and I super excited for it. Alright, yeah, we will break down all the individual first round matchups later today on the on three sports YouTube channel are going to go alright and are going to go fire off some hot written takes. We gotta figure that out. We gotta cook up the saucy or takes. I don't know how saucy we're going to get. The committee took the fire out of the sauce.

I think I might be writing about teams, not the committee. I don't know if there's anything to, like unless you want to say the precedent of, there is probably an angle there about conference championship games. Because they did draw a clear line in the sand about how they view it. But I don't know if that's interesting to people. We should

spin it forward. I may just rank the first round games. Okay you know what I'm gonna do? I might write about James Franklin. On camera? No it's actually like my comment. Write about James Franklin and Ryan Day because I think they're in the same boat together. Okay sounds good. Guys? Hey do the one the 123 break thing. What a deal. Yeah, yeah, yeah. One, two, three, team! Win! Cut it! Cut it! In the show.