Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Playoff BRACKETOLOGY, Championship Week | CFP Landscape as Miami & Ohio State lose

Episode Date: December 1, 2024

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Hey it's Andy, happy Sunday. Ari and I did our usual Bracketology and Bubble Watch discussions on Sunday for the On3Sports YouTube channel but we figured it was such a good discussion that we'd make it into a podcast so we'll talk Bracketology first then Bubble Watch there may be a little crossover in the two but basically you just get to hear me and Ari yelling at each other and you get to learn what Ari ate at one in the morning in Texas and why that went so badly. Alright Ari, let us talk bracketology because

Ohio State losing and Miami losing made things very interesting. I think the last at large spot is probably the most contentious right now, but we don't really know who's up for it until after the conference championship games. Yeah, we got home pretty late last night and we were doing this I think at the same time this morning and I'm looking at your bracket here, Andy. And I'm just like, wow, that's such a better bracket than mine. I know four hours of sleep and I'm ready to let it rip right now with you. Um, go for it. You know, I, I don't know.

You might be right at the end of the day and I don't know why I lost my voice. It's been, it's been a day. So you took the hard way out. So we, there's no hard way or easy way. Let me explain what I'm going to say first. Okay, go ahead. Go ahead. But if Clemson loses to SMU, right then that's when the committee has to make problems Yeah, you took the cowards way out and said Clemson beta SMU and just put SMU in as an at-large Which is I mean that may Clemson may beat SMU in the ACC championship game, but the committee's not gonna be like Oh, this is a hard decision. Let's just put SMU there and no one will yell at us. They don't care about that. They're gonna go who among these teams that's up for the number 11 seed,

that's up for the last at large spot, they're gonna go, who do we think is the best? And there will be, I guarantee you, a bunch of different opinions. Yeah, so the result that you have, which is SMU beating Clemson, is the only thing, just to be clear to the people watching That can happen that makes it a dumpster fire on next Sunday, right? Like it's the only no because you have the same situation with the last at large of Clemson's beat Clemson beats SMU You assume that SMU was a slot in as an at large if they lose they won't There will be an argument with yeah, Alabama Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami

The same mark why did I think Howard's way out? an argument with Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami, the same argument. Then why did I take the Cowards way out? Because you made. It's the same thing. Because you made, because you didn't realize it was the same thing. You just were like, oh, this will be easier. I just, the reason I picked my bracket

based on who was favored in the games from the early lines. I don't know, I think SMU could win. But I think. I think that's a toss up. SMU could definitely. I'm just telling you how I arrived at it. It wasn't to avoid. Here's the thing. Doing it. I just don't know. The thing that is tough for me and like we discuss this over text, Andy, is that like, I'm not even upset or think that you could be wrong. Like what I think is weird is that if you get to the point where you have to decide between Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Miami, everybody is just assuming out of question that it's just going to be Bama. I'm not assuming Alabama. I'll tell you why I picked Alabama there.

Well, they're ranked ahead. That's who I think the committee will, that's who the committee is going to pick and I'll tell you why. We always talk about what if the line makers in Las Vegas set the playoff bracket? Well, they kind of do. And here's why. If you watch the committee, and if you listen to what the committee chair is always saying, which they are parroting back, like when Ward Manuel is talking, he is parroting back some of the arguments that are happening in the room. They are very reliant on predictive power rankings. So ESPN's, FPI, the Sagran ratings, the Massey ratings, S and P plus that our friend Bill Connolly does at ESPN, those are the ratings that they believe in a lot. When they say they're not projecting the future, that's a lie.

It's a lie. They are looking at who do I think would win, who would Vegas have favored in the game, they may not be thinking that in their minds, but that's what they're doing. Well, FBI is one of those predictive ones. They love it. They talk about strength of record, which is an FBI stat.

Alabama's number four in the FBI. Not 11, not 12, four. They're gonna pick Alabama in that situation. That's why I think I would pick- Can I ask you a personal question though? Who would you actually- Ole Miss. Cause I would pick Ole Miss.

Yeah, I would pick Ole Miss. So like that's the thing that is interesting to me. It's like, if you think that the committee is gonna make this decision Andy based on that metric, and I'm not even like arguing with you that that's the case. It just seems stupid to me, because the information that we have in terms of an abundance of wins and resume and how teams have looked and what they've done recently.

I think you could make the case and I personally believe that what happened with Alabama and Oklahoma. Was worse than what happened with all this in Florida like Florida's playing worse than what happened with all missing Kentucky. No but I actually also to do think that recency matters. Because I think that we're trying to make- Well, if recency matters, just put South Carolina in. But that's another discussion. They lost head to head to Alabama and Oklahoma,

or in Ole Miss. You can't overcome the recency thing when you have head to head losses that were that drastic. So it really is just a head to head discussion with Ole Miss and Alabama. What about Miami? That's the part that I think is interesting. Because Miami has one fewer loss. Miami, if you're going to go against Ole Miss, they do have, well,

you both played in the swamp and Miami won in the swamp and Ole Miss lost in the swamp. But they don't have that with other teams because obviously different conferences. And that's the one because let's say Miami's two losses are not bad. I mean, we just saw Georgia Tech take Georgia to eight overtimes in Sanford Stadium and Syracuse is a good team. So I'm I know a lot of you probably think are playing devil's advocate here. I'm trying. I'm really not.

I don't think all of these teams are all that different. I think it's very similar. It's a beauty pageant where all the contestants have warts and you've got to pick one. And that's just how it's going to go. Like the committee is going to have to pick one. And honestly, if Clemson wins the ACC title game, you throw SMU into this mix too. Yeah, I think SMU in that scenario, which is we'll get to that in the video about bubble watch, but I actually think that Clemson has a really good chance of winning that game. You know, I think they played a full four quarter game against a team

that we have a lot of respect for in South Carolina right now. You sound like Ward Manuel there. They played a full four quarter game because the team we had, but the committee has a lot of respect for. I mean, like you're so certain that SMU is going to win, like just get. I'm not certain about that. Get a ticket then. Like I don't. I'm not certain about that.

I'm certain that if SMU gets dropped into that at-large pile that they are not automatically gonna make the playoffs. So then that opens up Pandora's box then on like another thing Andy which is Indiana and SMU are probably the same at this point right? But Indiana doesn't get to play in its conference championship game so what you're gonna do is you're gonna drop SMU out of that put Alabama in and punish SMU for playing an extra game that Indiana didn't play while putting Indiana in the field, which is stupid. And I can't stand that. But that's what they're probably going to do. So yeah, but I'm just saying like that to me is, like, I said this on the podcast last night, and I don't know if you agree with me or were just helping me explain it. But when the committee in the past has gotten into, and it's been rare and it's going to happen every year now because 12 is different than four.

But in the past, when they've gotten into situations where they had to pick between three teams and two were indistinguishable the way that I believe that Alabama and Ole Miss are, you take the team that has lost less and isn't in that mix because you can separate them. And then also too, I think that putting SMU in over Alabama and Ole Miss also kind of solidifies your decision with Indiana because it's like at that point it's like, why would you take Indiana over SMU? SMU has better wins and there's extra losses in a game that Indiana didn't have

to play. What's the better, how many better wins? What are the wins? Yeah, but I think that- No, no, no, tell me the wins. You're going to say they have better wins? You're going to tell me the wins. What are the wins? Yeah, but I think no, no, no. Tell me the wins. No, you're going to say they have better wins. Tell me the win to explain to you. I said that I

think that SMU strength of schedule last week was higher than Indiana's. That's why I said it. Okay, tell me the wins. But I mean, there's neither of them have name a team that they beat. Well, I have to. Louisville. You're

going to say Louisville. Yeah, I mean Louisville is the one, right? But like, hold on. Let me look at it. I don't know how they're because Indiana's Michigan win looks a little better. That is based on the statistics of the thing that we're supposed to be talking about, which is strength of schedule. Wasn't it higher? I don't even remember. I thought it was higher. So, um, but okay. Then we're setting the message either way that Indiana shouldn't know that that avoiding your conference title games the best thing to do. Well, we've sent that message a lot. We know that yeah losing the big 10 championship games gonna be awesome because you're gonna get to play the 12

Seat I'm just gonna say if they make if Alabama makes the playoff this year Like that just reinforces my entire opinion of the stupid ass system. Okay, like it's just stupid like so South Carolina Backwards to figure out a way to get Alabama into this thing and it's like they suck. It's Alabama. It's Alabama that bothers you though. If it's Ole Miss or South Carolina, it doesn't bother you. I think that putting Ole Miss in is an impossible thing to do as well, which is why in my bracket I have that. Why is Ole Miss impossible?

Because you can't distinguish the two. Like there's no distinguishing them. They're the same team to me. One of them beat Georgia 28-10. Yeah, and that's the team that you left out. How many playoff teams did SMU beat? Zero. Okay how many playoff teams did Ole Miss beat? Uh without the bracket in front. Is it one right? It's one unless you unless South Carolina's in there. But yeah I mean that that's that's the issue. That's the issue. So SMU strength of schedule 75. Indiana strength of schedule 65. SMU strength of schedule 75, Indiana strength of schedule 65. So Indiana strength of schedule is better than SMU. Okay. All right. Well then leave them out. We'll see what ends up happening though. But

I do think that that's going to be a very contentious, like me and I are arguing for real right now. And this is what it's going to be in the room because I don't think like I I am saying in this Bracketology exercise. It's my job to try to predict what the committee is gonna do Mm-hmm. I think they will pick Alabama because I think they are overly reliant on power rankings I do think there will be people in that room who have very strong opinions about Ole Miss about South Carolina about Miami like South Carolina if We're talking about you know entering the playoff right now like South Carolina if we're talking about you know

entering the playoff right now like South Carolina I think is the team that nobody would want to play there they would be the hottest team coming in but they lost head-to-head to Ole Miss and to Alabama and that's a problem like if they're just if their losses were different like if they'd lost to Georgia instead of Ole Miss, I think everybody's like, Oh, South Carolina, that that's the easy one. Yeah. So the thing that I, you know, you remember our

conversation Andy on Friday night when you were at my house and we watched Georgia and Georgia tech about like how in this year's system that we can't make the same assumptions about teams in the SEC. No, we can't make the same assumptions about teams in the SEC. No, we can't. You think that SMU is going to beat Clemson, right? You actually think that. I don't, I'm not super confident in it, but yeah.

You think there's a really good chance, right? But like, if this were two years ago, or three years ago, you would be certain, and I would be certain that Alabama would beat SMU, right? Oh, yeah, we would be. And are you certain of it now? SoU, right? Oh, yeah, we would be. And are you certain of it now? So like that's the thing. It's like, is the committee overly reliant on FBI in the past or were they just using common sense when the sport was like, yeah, they're a super team. But I don't, I don't, I don't think, I don't know if things have changed.

I don't think, but I don't think their minds have evolved that much either. Yeah. I mean, I wonder if they do because like our minds are all evolving and they're supposed to be the experts who watch the games every week and break it down. Who do you think, I realize they have the fancy iPads where they get the condensed games, but who do you think watches more games, us or them? Because all those people have real jobs and we don't.

But their actual like obligation is to watch every minute of all the games. For the job that pays them nothing and they have real jobs that take seven figures. So are you asking me like who's supposed to watch more or who all the games. For the job that pays them nothing and they have real jobs that pay them. So you're asking me like who's supposed to watch more or who I think watches more? Who do you think watches more? It's us. Yeah.

I mean, I watch it all day every day. That's what I'm saying. I don't know that they are as in the, now obviously they work in the industry so they probably are in the weeds of all this. Yeah. And like they also are like, you know, good football minds, but like my hope is that their minds are inquiring about the same things that we inquire about every day on this podcast and like if that's if that's the case, like have they been and then the question

I'm not and I'm not even challenging you If do you think it's the FBI that they've been reliant on or do you think it's been the school of thought that the SEC is Just better at just falling back? I think it is. And then if I think it is predictive power rankings in general, not necessarily the FBI. Okay. But do you think that that is the thing that took precedent over just knowing who's on the team? It's also why Ohio State always gets a benefit of doubt. It's not everybody thinks it's an SEC or an Alabama thing.

It's actually a stars matter thing. No, for sure. And I'm with you like and by the way, number one subscriber to that up sure. And I'm with you like, and by the way, number one subscriber to that up until this year. Yeah. You know, and last year, once Michigan won the national title last year, I punted. Right. And I've been more, I've been more intentional with trying to break this down. And this isn't even an sec thing. Like if Alabama, if Ohio state, right. If Ohio state had three losses, I don't think they deserve it either. They, they have these wins that I honestly speaking We might find out that the Indiana win is a fugazi

If they get in for that, it's stoop like I think I'll be out too. Like this isn't an Ohio State Let's say Ohio State had lost to Nebraska because that was actually a fairly close game. Yeah, they'd be out I think they would not be out. I meant in my mind is what that would be the one Yeah, they would be the one I'd assume is in over Alabama because they'd have two wins against teams in the playoff and Bama would just Have the one yeah, so the thing that I'm hoping happens this year, and maybe it's wishful thinking and I'm giving them too much credit but when they get to this inevitable debate if SMU were to lose to Clemson I Wonder if they will think deeper than Oh, Alabama would just beat them.

Like I wonder if they actually but they also think because what is the hypothetical spread of that game? I don't know. Like they also may think Ole Miss would just be or they might think Miami would. I don't know. I think that Ole Miss in Alabama probably would or could be them. But like we're we just got done doing a video 48 hours ago about saying we can't play that game anymore. So I don't want to play it. Like SMU we can't but they have to pick they have to pick a team. And this is the argument they're gonna have. Yeah, they have to pick a team before we get to the because I

do want to talk about if this bracket were to come to be what it would be as a television spectacle. Oh, by the way, I would just be like, what's that big mountain in Seattle that Mount Rainier? Yeah, it would be if that exploded. If your thing came true, that's going to happen. You mean Mount St. Helens? That's the volcano. No, Mount Rainier exploding.

No, I thought Mount Rainier was an active volcano. Is it? I don't know. I'm not a geologist. You're going to have to do that. Mount St. Helens did erupt. But before- If Alabama cracks the field.

OK. Yeah, before we talk about this, this show is brought to you by Panini America, makers of the most collectible sports cards on the planet, the Luminance football card series features, NIL autographed cards from players including Arch Manning, Quinn Uris, Cam Moore, Jalen Milro, Dylan Riola, DJ Lagway, and Luther Burden.

To start collecting, visit PaniniAmerica.net, and I will tell you how valuable these Panini cards are to our man Ari Wasserman. He has them everywhere. I just visited his house. He's got them in top loaders. They're in his car. They're in his house. Saturday, we're trying to leave for College Station. Ari's like, I can't find my wallet. I was like, okay, I'm sure we'll find it. He's got an app. It's a little music plays. He can't find it anywhere. Because I lose it all the time. Where did we find it? We found it after 30

minutes of looking in a few meltdowns that were audible that Andy could hear in my in one of the drawers in my office underneath a bunch of Panini football. That is how about so your wallet with your driver's license your entire life in there you were holding these these cards that mean so much to you and you're like other people this this this thing is as valuable as these things i didn't even know i had my wallet i was more concerned about yeah exactly exactly because there was an auto card on top who's the autograph um i think it was um on top. Who's the autograph? I think it was, um, it was a rookie card. Yeah, it might have been a Josh Allen rookie card that was signed, which is why I got, cause I just buy, I just bought that and the

cards worth thousands of dollars and like I grabbed it and put it into my drawer to file away in my. So yes, Ari's wallet, his cards as valuable because these cards cards they are so much fun to collect the market is exploding Panini dot Panini America net get yourself a box or represent packs right now All right Let us talk about what this would look like if this bracket were to come to be and again I'm not saying this is definitely what's gonna happen. I'm saying if the committee gets put in this situation I think this is what they'll do. Have you seen the movie, The Purge?

Yes. Would it be like that, what you just put out there did? I mean, I think whatever. It'd be great ratings. I know you think that's what's gonna happen, but that's also the most antagonistic bracket you could have put out there. Well, yeah, that too.

But see, you don't understand though. Like Alabama fans get mad if they get excluded too. Like you're just assuming everybody else being happy because Alabama is excluded. If you were trying, that'll get pissed off too. Like the thing is, like, I'm not accusing you of doing this, so don't take it that way. But if you try, remember how we used to do the ass rankings? Yeah, yeah. Like that is the ass rankings of the college football playoff bracket.

Except this is the one the committee's probably going to choose. I know what I'm saying, like you could not have even drawn up a more antagonistic bracket to put out there. I know. What would you have done? I guess put Indiana out in Miami. I think I don't know. I probably would have put Ohio State on the road because that would have, but I did. Okay, so here's what we got. In your first round, you've got Penn State hosting Arizona State, which you could swap Iowa State for Arizona State, whoever wins the Big 12 title game going to State College. Though if you look at the early lines on the old Big 10 championship game,

not a guarantee that Oregon beats Penn State. It's like four and a half, isn't it? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So and by the way, it probably is because Penn State doesn't usually. The 611 is the one that I would put on Friday night Just to be like here's what this thing's gonna be Here's here's what you're gonna want to watch Alabama at Notre Dame Yeah, that's like ratings monster now

Ole Miss at Notre Dame Miami at Notre Dame, South Carolina at Notre Dame. I think that's an equally good. Those are all equally good football games at Notre Dame, South Carolina at Notre Dame. I think that's an equally good. Those are all equally good football games. Yeah, the SEC versus the one loss northern team is good or Miami Notre Dame. You know, rerun Catholics versus convict. And then also to Andy, then that means that the eight nine game would be the following morning, right? It wouldn't be the following morning because you might have something on the West Coast. I'm not putting Ohio State at Tennessee in the morning. I would put Ohio State and Tennessee in primetime. Okay, but that would be the following day. That would be

Tennessee going to Columbus to play Ohio State. We would call that the double-dipper there? Would we do both of those? I think so. I think so. You fixed this one for me because I going to have Tennessee hosting this game. Yeah. And I think you're right though. Your, your logic was, was correct. Ohio state has wins against Penn state and Indiana two teams that are in the field. One of those is on the road.

They would make Ohio state host again. But I also think that you could make a case that Ohio state has the worst loss out of all of them. Uh, Michigan stinks. Can we not, can we stop pretending like they don't stink? They stink. They don't stink. They stink. Like Kentucky's the worst loss of all these that we're talking about. I actually think that Kentucky's a more well-rounded football. Well, not Michigan.

I disagree. They got destroyed by Louisville. Michigan does have better defensive players. But like, they're often. Producer River points out Tennessee losing Arkansas may be the worst one. Yeah. I just don't think that we can over I Feel like because it's a rivalry game mm-hmm and because Michigan is the defending national champion that we've somehow like like not acknowledge the fact that the team that Ohio State lost to yesterday stinks like They are they don't stink. I was all year. It's like they're average. That

offense is far below average. Right, but the defense is far above average, so that makes average. Um yeah, I guess. Yeah, I mean if we want to talk, I'm trying to nag Ohio State here and you're not letting me. So it's okay. It's yeah. Ohio. We

nagged Ohio State plenty. If you'd like to watch those videos about Ryan Day and what they do now, there is a couple of them on the Hun3 Sports YouTube channel. One where people are honking at Ari while he's Ohio we negged Ohio State plenty if you'd like to watch those videos about Ryan Day and what they do now There is a couple of them on the hunt three sports YouTube channel one where people are honking at Ari Well, he's uh, he's trying to explain what the hell happened. Yeah in Columbus yesterday the the 710 game in this one is kind of what People want I think it's revelatory, Indiana at Georgia

Because the whole point of this is to find answers that we didn't get in the regular season. You don't want to see like because the thing that's tough about your bracket is as you pull it back up here, Andy, just roll it up there for me. Again, I got it. You got a second round, but if Georgia were to beat Indiana, then you have Georgia, Texas for the third time, right? If Ohio State were to beat Tennessee, you'd have Oregon Ohio State again like now. Here's the thing. If

Georgia beats Texas in Atlanta next week, Georgia's your two, and I think Texas would be the best place to beat Tennessee, you'd have Oregon, Ohio State again. Like. Now here's the thing, if Georgia beats Texas in Atlanta next week, Georgia's your two, and I think Texas would be above Notre Dame, maybe. Yeah. Probably. But I hope that, and they're not, I'm not saying they're gonna design it this way,

but my hope is that the matchups that we get in the path to the final four doesn't have a bunch of rematches. I wanna see you playing new new I understand and and I Hope I'm gonna explain this to you and Ari Ari knows this. Yeah They don't care whether it's a rematch. They don't they don't care whether you're sending the SEC team on the road to the big Ten they're not thinking about we're just hoping that it's yeah. Yeah, and I because like that's the thing like I want as many ACC that it's new. Yeah. And I because like that's the thing. Like I want as many a C. C. Big 10 S. C. Like cross pollination as possible. I don't want and I don't think the SEC fans want

SEC. I don't know. I wouldn't mind. I wouldn't mind an SEC game. We didn't get in the season like Tennessee. Texas would be good. Yeah. But I would rather that happen like at the end of the road, not at the beginning. Yeah, I want the conferences to weed each other out. I don't want the SEC to knock the sec out. I don't care. I just wanted to play in a tournament because like that's the whole thing. Like the number one debate is this the big 10 sock does the sec suck to the zip. I want to like, I hope that the correct answer is they all suck. Everybody sucks. No one's played anybody. I want the

playoff to be a revelation. I want, I want us to, it will be, if you've got Alabama at Notre Dame on Friday night. But could you imagine if Alabama like knocked off Georgia and Texas on the way it's just like okay. Oh yeah. We found out nothing like I want to see Indiana play Georgia. Well you might. Yeah. We'll see what happens. Ari let's talk bubble watch because the bubble Ari, let's talk bubble watch because the bubble. Is very interesting, it's really one spot. I feel like we're talking about at this point, everybody else feels pretty locked in.

We've got some winning end games, got the Big 12 championship between Iowa State and Arizona State that is a definite win in end game. Got the ACC championship between Clemson and SMU that may or may not be a Win and in game and it definitely is for Clemson But we don't know if it will be for SMU and then we've got all those teams just sitting there, Alabama Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami Going what happens to us? What what happens now? What does the committee do?

Yeah, so the bubble watch and this is kind of funny because you do bracketology every week, I do bubble watch every week, and like for the first two months of the season, you're over there somewhere, I'm over here somewhere, and as the results pile in, like we get Veer closer and closer together, and it's like yesterday or this morning when we were doing this, we were doing the same exactly. Yeah, now where we differ a little bit is in results of conference championship games, and let's start with the who might make this out of the group of five because I think that's really interesting Yeah, you have you and I'll be beating Boise State on the blue which

If you watch the first game between these two, which was a great game This is a definite possibility Boise State is not a lot to win the Mountain West Championship here. I Have been wrong about a lot of things this year and You know you can keep score that it's a lot I've been right about a few things and I've been on the Notre Dame bandwagon all year Yep, and I've also been on the UNLV Don't forget about UNLV like pounding the fist on the table about like do not forget about UNLV Like if you've watched them play and you have quite a bit. They're a very good football team. Oh yeah. Not just like they didn't just lose.

No they don't have like it's not just like a gimmicky offense like the go-go offense is fun to watch but they also play good defense. Yeah this is and they have a receiver that's literally in my top 10 for my high school ballot. They have and who blocks punts like they do stuff and my opinion has always been that it's very difficult to beat the same team twice in the same season. And also Boise isn't playing like murder ball right now. Right. Asa Jenti is still really good, but he's not completely annihilating opponents like he was at the beginning of the season.

Yeah. I mean, he's getting to 200 yards, but he's also carrying a 36 times a game. So like if you and LV can design a defense, having some experience, having played them already once to fall back on, here's what worked. Here's what didn't. And they made it hard on Ash and gente. He got his hundred 148 yards or so, but it was a lot of work. They played them tough. Yeah. Now it is on the road in the mountain west. If you don't understand this, they, the, the higher seed hosts the game. So it's not in a dome somewhere. It's in Boise on the blue turf. So that might make it difficult.

And, but the spread's four and a half. So I think that there was a potential there for UNLV to get this done. If they, I wouldn't bet my life on that or anything, but like I feel like that's interesting because it, it affects seating in a big way, I think, because if you look at where the committee has Boise State right now,

they're number 11 in the current committee rankings. I suspect they're gonna move up one as Miami falls in the next ranking. So they're probably gonna come into that at number 10 in the committee rankings. And right now, Arizona State and Iowa state, the two teams playing the big 12 championship game are 16 and 18. I don't think either one of them is going to jump Boise state. If Boise state beats a good UNLV team, which by the way, the committee also has ranked.

Yeah. So they'd be adding a ranked win. Yeah. So I think if Boise state wins this one, Boise state is your four seed at worst. They might be the three seed depending on if Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game. Yeah. So that's why I did that. Um, and there will also maybe be a debate because if Boise wins, they're just in and there's no discussion, right? But if UNLV wins, they might be compared to army. If army beats two lane and armies would be a one loss team that only lost another playoff team and you and LV has two losses so there is still a slim path I think for for army to get into this thing if and I still don't think they would win that battle. I think that you and the way army lost in Notre Dame is tough and you know these two losses are a close loss to Boise State and a very close loss to Syracuse. Yeah, which also looks better now because they beat Miami. And they have two, I believe, two wins over power teams too. Right.

They shut out Houston and they beat Kansas, which the Kansas win looks better now too. The thing about this is I just think it's crazy how much it can swing based on who went whether Boise State or UNLV wins this game because If you're the big 12 champ You'll know who won the Mountain West championship Yeah, I don't think you'll know who won the American championship yet. I believe that's on Saturday So yeah, so and the big 12 championship is first on Saturday. It's their early game So and the Big 12 championship is first on Saturday. It's their early game. So we won't quite know yet, but that they could be playing for the four seed or actually,

I mean, the eight because the ACC championship could I think if SMU let's say this, if SMU wins the ACC championship, they're the three seed. If Clemson wins the ACC championship, four seed or the 12th seed, the 12th seed, right? Yeah, I still think that we're overthinking that a little bit. Okay, Arizona State or three loss Clemson. Who's ranked higher? I don't feel passionate about that one way or the other. But that's the thing.

That's two power. If the committee doesn't feel passionate about it either and they rank Arizona State higher than Clemson, Clemson's the 12. But I think that's an area that my prediction. It's the first time we've done this. We don't know. Yeah, be that whoever wins the big're gonna jump that team five to six spots over Boise State if Boise State wins. And you just got done telling me in the last video that they just do whatever they want at the end of the year. Like you're trying to use rationality right now. They do, but I think they've painted themselves

into a corner here. If Boise State wins, Boise State is going to be the three or the four seed. Yeah, we'll see. Yeah, I mean, maybe you're right. I just like have gone under the assumption of like. They treat group of five teams a certain way and they always have, but they're not like, look, look at the rankings now.

Where's boys on Tuesday. They were 11. They were 11. Yeah. Arizona state was 16. We in 11 Iowa state was 18 for four weeks now. Yeah. But they don't Arizona state is suddenly going to be number 10. If they win, I put, I put them on 10 in my poll

Matters, but yeah, what did you put them last week like 18 or something? I'm not rewarding. I'm not rewarding three loss SEC teams because they're in the S We're not talking about those we're talking about a one loss boys. You hate Yeah, I mean what you're saying makes rational sense. I get it. Okay, I just like I don't. Let's explain the army part because I think people don't understand that. If Boise State loses, not any other scenario. If Boise State wins, they're in. Yeah, it's over. If Boise State loses, there is going and then if army beats Tulane, which by the way, Tulane is favored in the American Championship game Yeah, if army beats Tulane

There will be a discussion between army and UNLV for the 12-seed. Yes. I do not know who will get it I think it would be UNLV. I picked UNLV because they've got wins over power teams and they did not lose by 40 to Notre Dame like I thought that the two the combination of 40 to Notre Dame. Like I thought that the two the combination of. Resume wins which are important and the fact that they didn't get embarrassed in the only time they played a team that's in this picture. Yeah, I think is going to win that battle. Now let's talk about would be pretty crazy though. There was an option team in the playoff though, wouldn't it? It would be so much

fun. Army going to Alabama in the first. Alright, so speaking of Alabama, they are a bubble team. Ole Miss is a bubble team. South Carolina's a bubble team. Miami's a bubble team. You have them as your first four out. Those four, and those are the only four. I mean, I think that South Carolina is eliminated, so they're not in the

discussion because they have head to head losses to Ole Miss and Alabama. Yeah. And I think that Miami is basically eliminated. Why? Not 100%. Why? Because I agree with you that they will rely on who you beat in Miami has beaten nobody. Yeah, I'm just trying to get the explanation out there.

I'm not disagreeing with Ari on this. But Miami is more alive than South Carolina because there's still a 10 and two team South Carolina is a nine and three team in their two other three losses are two teams that are also in the conversation in the same little like yeah, there's no with them and like there's no more games left to like help them like a lot happened for them to be this close. Yeah, this past weekend or the past two weeks, but like there's no.

You could even dream up a path where they get into me. So I think they are just out. The way you've got it is Clemson beating SMU. Yes. You just immediately throw SMU into that 11 seed. My thought process was that I would put SMU there, or I think that they're gonna do that.

I don't think the committee will do that. I think they will pick Alabama or Ole Miss and put them there. And also too, like if you're right, least shocking thing in the world. Like I'm not, I'm not going to bang my fist against the table. My whole thought is in what you said about the FBI, and Andy did this exercise too, and he came down on a different side of this. Makes sense.

I think they're overly reliant on predictive power rankings, which love Alabama. The thing I just don't know is we know the FBI rankings. I don't know what the hypothetical spread between Bama and SMU would be. Maybe Bama would be favored, but if it's a field goal or something, then like... I don't think it would be a huge spread, although I didn't think Alabama-Auburn would be that big of a spread last week, and it was. And Alabama covered it. Because this isn't just an Alabama team who played a really tough schedule and lost a few games but it's still like really dangerous. Right right this is a this is a non-scary Alabama team. This is a potentially bad

off if like if they're on the if they get there on the wrong day they could be terrible and lose. So my thought is that the committee isn't just going to blanketly assume like they have in the past and I have in the past you have in the past that Alabama is just better than SMU because I think that would be a mistake. I think Alabama's inherently deeply flawed team. But they're all deeply flawed inherently deeply flawed and that's why they're here and not definitely in the playoff. And I think SMU's resume has less warts on it. Now it doesn't have as many like like we've seen Alabama be embarrassing this year, nothing.

And we don't know how I said, yeah. SMU has not been embarrassed. It's been embarrassing. So like they did beat Georgia though. So it's like, what do you pick? Do you pick the team that's been embarrassing, but has been great at times? Or do you pick the team that has never embarrassed anybody that has one fewer loss and play in one of that loss came in a game that Alabama didn't have to play in. Now I would argue one extra game and have one fewer loss like that has to matter and also to my thing is and I can do you think less of SMU if they lose to Clemson? Yeah, we would get more information because Clemson got throttled by Georgia and lost to South Carolina at home. Of course, of course. Yeah, no, I'm with you. But having one fewer loss in one bigger in one more game, and not

going to Oklahoma and not scoring a touchdown doesn't exist on their resume. Right. And the second part of this is what I firmly believe this is the this is the real motivation for me. Because I do believe you and agree with you with the FBI and predictive, you know, hypothetical lines and all that stuff is that I think that the Alabama Ole Miss discussion is so close that they are indistinguishable and you're like, well, they have to make a decision. It's like, ow. I agree with you. How do you make that decision?

Well, and we talked about this in the Bracketology video, like my personal preference between those two would be Ole Miss. Cause like also too, like. Cause I think their top end is better than Alabama's top end. Their FBI, Alabama's FBI is four and Ole Miss is eight and Ole Miss is eight. Is that negligible?

There's no difference. Personal preference, I would go with Ole Miss because I think their top end is better than Alabama's top end. So what if the committee, half the room's like, you gotta, first of all, I don't think that there's anybody who watches the sport every day who's gonna be banging their fist on the table

for Alabama this year. They're not a good team in comparison to what they've been in the past. They have the same helmets in the same uniforms and play in the same stadium. They are not that half the room is Alabama. Half the room is Ole Miss. They're screaming and fighting with each other. You and I watch football every day.

You think they'll just be like, well, we can't split the baby. We're going to, we're going to go with SMU and Baylor. I think they'll flip a like well we can't split the baby we're gonna yeah we're gonna go with SMU and Baylor I think they'll flip a freaking coin and pick Alabama or Ole Miss yeah but also too like one of my saucy tanks at the beginning of the year that enraged you is that this is not gonna be settled on the field that is not settling it on the field it is bullshit it is most certainly not selling out that is but that's the most that would be the most egregious decision the committee would have had to make since last year or two. No, no, it's not because it's nonsense. It's for the 11 seed.

Yeah. And we can say therefore it's not because all of those teams could have just won more games. But it's still a non-sense decision. It's a, it's a complete bullshit nonsense. It's a nonsense sport. Get used to it. Um, so, but that's why I put SMU there. And I think you're gonna see Andy, like I'm not gonna be the only idiot out there that has SMU in the field with the loss.

Oh no, all of you Pollyanna's are gonna do that. And then you're gonna be like, what does that word mean? I don't know what that means. You just think the best of people you assume the best. Oh, that's nice, thank you. Yeah, yeah, no, but reality is gonna slap you in the face on Sunday. But I also am a very pessimistic person

when it comes to like how the committee works. But then like, if here's the thing, and I'll make an admission here, if Ole Miss would have lost the Egg Bowl, I wouldn't put Alabama in. Right, because there's no comparison between them at that point. I think that Ole Miss's existence is a blocker

of at least 10%. See, I don't think so at all. There's at least between that that old missus existence is a blocker of at least. I see I don't think so at all There's at least a marginal block. I think these two are better than these other two But because I have to pick between these two I'm gonna take this other one. No, that's silly. That's not gonna happen We have the benefit of hindsight right now, but I covered the 2014 thing It was not certain going into the selection Sunday that Ohio State was what it was for people with eyes but like but like I remember where I was yeah when the bracket was what it was a lot of doubt on who it had never happened before nobody they'd never had a final ranking before but anybody who

think I'm overthinking that then yes you don't think that like indistinguishable team yes cancel each out? What you just said, if Ole Miss had lost the Egg Bowl, you'd say Alabama's in? Yeah. Okay. Or I think that's what I would have done. Yeah. The committee's going to think Ole Miss and Alabama are better than a two loss SMU that lost to Clemson. They're going to choose between Alabama and Ole Miss. Yeah. But if, and like I said during your video, if you are right and you might be right, I wouldn't go wagering a bunch of money that you're wrong. Because Alabama, I think in the actual betting odds is like a favorite to make it. So like, so I'm with, like I understand what you're doing. The thing is Alabama could get into the playoff as the 11 seed, go on the road and lose by three touchdowns.

But that is entirely possible. That I think would be complete anarchy. Like I think people would go absolutely. But what if what if they went on the road in one? What if they went to South Bend and then my response is a rational person will be Ole Miss would have beaten them to like I still think that like but to see that's the thing. Like that's the assumptions that we're used to making. We don't know. Like it's gonna be whatever it's gonna be that day.

Like all of these teams are flawed. But you do know that Twitter is going to explode. Of course, that's gonna explode any way you do it. Yeah, I guess. That is the point. Yeah. I don't like all of you people who think. I'm a you people.

Yeah. All of you people who think that they did this to avoid controversy Do you understand that the controversy is part of the thing? It is part of the attraction You do understand now that we're in the eye of the storm here that like half the sales pitches for the beauty of the 12 Team playoff beforehand or like not true at all. That's for idiots Okay, who claimed the team or the old bull system. No, but I'm just saying like all the features that we were supposed to get,

which is settled on the field and all that stuff is just complete nonsense. Well, no shit committee. What did you think was going to happen? This is like complete nonsense. Uh, what did you think was going to happen when you saw they still have hope is that my hope is that they'll put the team with fewer losses in? Why? Why is fewer like why? Why is the loss column matter so much? Is it not possible that a team that played a harder schedule with more losses is better than a team that played an easier? I would buy that if the losses on that harder schedule weren't to dogshit teams like that's the Like they, it's not like they have more losses because they lost to Georgia.

Is there more than Illinois? No, I know. But okay. It happened once, not three times. Like it's like more is worse. Like, but what do you want to do? Didn't play anybody that good, but Notre Dame also played dog crap teams for the rest of the year and didn't lose again. They kept losing the bad team. They didn't beat anybody good. Like I,. Like I understand like the strength of schedule. Alabama and Ole Miss beat somebody good. Alabama's three losses were Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss then we wouldn't be talking

they got their dicks kicked in by Ole Miss. Right, right. But if you're by Oklahoma on the road. But they did beat Georgia. They did. This is so crazy. You know who didn't beat a team as good as Georgia? Yeah. Notre Dame, Indiana, Penn State. And like I don't even like I'm like arguing with you and I don't even disagree with you. Like, I know, cause you just, I'm just, I'm just, you just, it's nonsense though. It's nonsense.

You wanna be right about the 12th team playoff. You're hilariously wrong. This is gonna be fun. People will get mad. That's part of the point. I'm so past that, Andy. I promise you, that's not a motivation of my opinions. No, it's, it is what it is.

You're like, people are gonna get mad about this. Who cares? I but oh can I ask it this way let me I'm gonna do like verbal gymnastics with you. Go for it. Um hold on let me limber up. Do you think it would be cleaner if they picked SMU? I don't care. No I'm just answering though. No I think it'd be I think a bunch of people would go crazy because they'd like, why'd you pick the team that would lose to these other two teams? Yeah. I think it would be cleaner. Who cares? It's not supposed to be clean.

This is the dirtiest, messiest sport. They have a freaking committee that votes on things. And then one person stands up and pretends they speak for the whole thing. I mean, it's going to be great for us. Because we're going to have a live show after the set. Exactly. It is going to be pandemonium quit quit poking the golden goose Sorry, so like what about like what am I? So what are we rooting? We wait we need Clemson to

Lose Clinton losing I think creates a little more chaos in that spot in that last. Oh, yeah Oh, yeah, actually Clemson winning creates it winning creates it because then you have an actual team you throw me into that's true I think that Clemson winning makes it work that's true because Clemson wouldn't be. In the mix for that large but SM my assumption all morning until I came into this beautiful Fairfield in Waco Texas. Hotel room was that SMU would probably get it and like you're like convincing me that it won't happen that yeah and that and that's. That's probably again it's a committee there's a room full of people you're gonna have that one angry juror or two angry jurors who are like no and it is probably gonna be on both sides of it there's probably one person that's going no it's got to be SMU and there's no it's got to be Ole Miss like

that's what's going to happen and it's why I wish they would televise the deliberation the one thing that I will I just take exception to to the core of my of my plums is that when you screamed in my face just now and I thought that was cute I'm working you up on Sunday morning I've had a really long night guys for for reasons I'm not gonna tell you but I'm gonna tell you he bought a gas station Sandwich at 1 a.m. He could have bought some beef jerky and been perfectly fine. He's like I know I will buy this sandwich There's probably had by someone on meth. I have 17 hours ago, and it's been sitting on this shelf What could go wrong? It was the only thing that was a meal that was in the gas station

It doesn't have to be a meal. I know, but I hadn't had dinner. I didn't eat the barbecue sandwich that you had in the press box and I was hungry. I hadn't eaten in like eight hours. So eat some gummy bears or some beef jerky. At least there's some standards in the production. So anyway, yeah, I got sick last night.. So you trust this man to pick your bracket? Yeah, he can't even pick a sandwich I'm a I'm a I'm a raccoon But what you did say though, and I like fundamentally just think it's different this year is if you pick SMU People are going to go and I quote we're gonna go nuts because you're picking the team that

We know would lose to the other two. We don't know that. I just don't think we can do that. We don't know that. That's all. And I'm just trying to say like, I'm with you. I think there will be, and I hope there are people in the room stumping for SMU in that situation. But I hope they think that way because I am not certain that SMU cannot beat those two. I'm fat I'm not certain either be a great game, but but two years ago I would have thought that both SMU and Ole Miss with these players all of them crap out of them One of them is gonna get in the other ones gonna be left out and all of them that are left out

You know what they they should have done one more games. Yeah problem solved It's like at the end of the road. It's going to be whatever they do is not going to be just. But at the same time, if you got screwed, you only have yourself to blame. Exactly. So like, and I think that's it's like when you buy the gas station sandwich at one, you only have yourself.