Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Playoff BRACKETOLOGY, Week 14 | CFP after Alabama, Ole Miss, & Indiana all LOSE; Biggest Winners of Week 13

Episode Date: November 24, 2024

You’ve had Wendy’s Nuggs dipped in sauce. But have you had them covered in sauce? Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11. Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker, try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs.In this Sunday exclusive, Andy & Ari take a look at the biggest winners of College Football, bracketology, and bubble watch entering Week 14.This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES(0:00-20:54) 5 Biggest Winners from Week 13(20:55-28:39) Bracketology, Part 1(28:40-30:34) PrizePicks(30:35-41:56) Bracketology, Part 2(41:57-52:16) Bubble Watch

R as we sift through the chaos of a classic November College Football Saturday, we're going to figure out who actually benefits from all this because there was a day that I would have told you that I don't know. No one will ever do the Gator chomp at Neyland Stadium unless they're a visiting Florida fan. But there were thousands of Tennessee fans doing it. Like what world are we living in here? Yeah, you know, it's so funny on Sunday,

after a long day of college football, our temperament is usually to preview what's happening next weekend because people are always so concerned about what this means for the next thing. And this weekend was so nuts that we have to sift through the debris a little bit, right? Like there were so many losses, the sec kind of imploded and there's a lot of teams out there that benefited greatly from, you know, the Gators and

you know, the Sooners and teams that we had forgotten about this year. So, um, last night on our show, we talked a little bit about this, but I wrote, uh, for on three.com, the five biggest winners of the chaos. And I think that it's important to go through it because when you have 15 crazy results in the same day, it really is hard to navigate that, you know, even for us when we were doing the podcast live, I was like, what the hell is going on here? We had to figure out what the tiebreakers were in the conference championship games and all this stuff. It was just, it's just a battle. So I tried to

help and I think that you're on board with this too. So let's go through it. Let's talk about the team. I just mentioned Tennessee because I think there's a thought process out there that, oh, the SEC was the big loser because Alabama and Ole Miss lost. They're probably out. But remember, individual fan bases root for their own teams. Tennessee is in a much, much better place than it was coming into the weekend because we spent all last week having this hypothetical argument about a 10 and two Tennessee versus an 11 and one Indiana. I don't even think we need to have that argument anymore.

Yeah. Well, the thing that's interesting is, is I think in the sec people root for the sec when their team is no longer in the picture and people root for their team when their team is firmly in the picture. And, uh, I think you can make the case that there was no greater beneficiary to the chaos from the sec than Tennessee was Tennessee came into the weekend. Andy, uh, you know, ready to strap in for a noon game to watch Ohio state Indiana, and they were begging and pleading for Ohio state to blow the

Hoosiers out because they didn't want, uh, there to be another big 10 team there that had a case. And as Ohio state was blowing them out, Tennessee was pumping up their chests. You know, if we get into a head-to-head battle at the end of the year about who gets one of the last spots, do you take our team that beat Alabama? Or do you take the Indiana team that went to Ohio state and their only test of the season and lost by a hundred and only put up 150 yards. Good news, Tennessee. You don't have to do anything. All you have to do is go beat Vander test of the season and lost by 100 and only put up 150 yards. Good news, Tennessee, you don't have to do anything.

All you have to do is go beat Vanderbilt next week and you are firmly in the picture because Ole Miss is no longer in the picture now. Alabama is no longer in the picture now. Georgia's probably cleared up all the way at the top and 10 and two with the resume that you have, although I have personal questions about how great it actually is now that Tennessee is employed or that the SEC is imploded. Tennessee controls its own destiny for a spot. As we were doing bracketology and bubble watch last night, it was really hard to find the 13, 14, 15 teams. Like if it's not Tennessee, I don't even know who you put in. So we got to a point where it kind of feels like it did two years ago, where it's like we have all these spots and no viable options. feels like it did two years ago where it's like we have all these spots and no viable options. Tennessee, there's no debate with Tennessee. Like you, you win, you're in. And that's, that's a really important thing to do when it felt like you were out a week ago at this time.

Well, let's talk about the team that we were having the fictional debate about because Indiana did kind of get its doors blown off by Ohio State, but simultaneously in Gainesville, you had Florida beating Ole Miss. Later, you had Oklahoma beating Alabama. And suddenly, it felt like we weren't even arguing about Indiana anymore, which is interesting because you were fired up, Ari, after that Indiana-Ohio State game, because you thought it was unfair that basically we were judging Indiana off this after that Indiana Ohio State game because you thought it was unfair that basically we were judging Indiana off this one game against Ohio State that according to most of everybody's rankings, the

committee's rankings, everybody who does rankings, most teams couldn't go to Columbus and beat Ohio State. So, you know, depending on how you've got them ranked, you may only think two teams in the country are capable of doing that. So why are we judging Indiana by that standard? You are all fired up about that. You're ready to write, write a column you were. And then I'm like, Ari, I mean, I'm here at the swap like Ole Miss is losing their Indiana's fine.

Andy, the Indiana column was up on Ole Miss's last drive on on three. So I don't know if you realize that, but they published it. Actually, just through a, uh, through a dart right through it with, with the. Yeah, I, I still think that the point stands that with Indiana, it didn't seem fair to be expecting them to be on par with Ohio State when there are 12 teams who make that's all. So like, and I think that that's fair. That doesn't matter anymore, Indiana.

It's hilarious to me, Andy, but you could be a team that most people will sit here and say got exposed as frauds on the biggest stage on Saturday and go to bed that night as one of the biggest winners. Like, I don't know how it happens that way, but you want to talk about a hidden benefit of the big noon window. If you play in a big game at noon and your world comes crashing down, you have a lot of hours left in the day in this new system of television windows to get your season back.

Ask Miami three weeks ago, they were out of the playoff of the number four seed within three hours. Um, that that's the best part about this. And what happened with Indiana is that their resume at 11 and one with a blowout loss to Ohio State on the road is not gonna be scrutinized anymore. There's no one to scrutinize it against. I think if you would have had a two loss Ole Miss

or you would have had a two loss Alabama and a Georgia and a Texas team that could have been two, those all might've won out in that debate. But now that those teams have three losses, there's no debate really to have anymore. And Indiana is kind of like Will Smith in the living room at the end of the fresh Prince of Bel Air looking around like, who are we going to be compared to? Where'd everybody go?

You know, and it's like, that's good. And I'm happy for Indiana because you know what? Getting into the 12 or into the 14 field, Andy, was about an excellence that you had to reach and so few teams could do that. It's a really hard bar to hit. And the reason why it was so exclusive is because very few teams could this new system, that's not the bar anymore. And that's great.

If you want new teams in and you want to put teams in that, you know, when your heart, aren't as good as the elite of the elite, which we're doing with 12 teams, then Indiana, in my opinion has done more than enough this year. And as a team that could finish 11 and one to hit that bar. They're not Ohio State, but neither are the other bottom eight teams that are going to be in this field. So like that to me is a just situation in Indiana, though it had a really rough morning, went to bed last night knowing that they if they take care of business against

Purdue, which I can't imagine they won't produce not a very good football team this year that they're going to be in the playoff. So another winner, this one's this one is it's a couple of teams and a league that we've kind of lumped together. And I had a little spiel on the show last week where after Jim Phillips went on the ACC network and started politicking for his teams in the ACC, I said, Hey, it's it's this is great. He finally understands the assignment. Cause we never heard a peep from Jim Phillips last year going into the playoff selection. And then Florida State got left out and it's like,

well, where were you? Like the SCC always politics for its teams. What are you doing here? And you said, well, but you know, it doesn't matter. It all work itself out on the field. I was like, yeah, but that's it's still part of the gig. You got to do it. Well, I don't know if it's like a, you know, cosmic.

Benefit here because he did what he was supposed to do because he understood the assignment, or if you're right and it just worked itself out on the field. But based on what happened yesterday, the ACC is now in a really good position to get two teams in. If Miami wins against Syracuse next week was not easy, by the way, that's not going to be an easy game. If Miami wins against Syracuse, if SMU beats Cal, then you have a an 11 to 1 SMU against an 11 to 1 Miami for the ACC

Championship. And I think there's a really good chance that your champion of course is in, but the ACC runner up at 11 and two could also be it. Yeah, the ACC was a one big league on Friday and now I think it's a two bid league. And here's the thing that's fun to do as somebody who did bubble watch this week Andy is if you take the loser of the Miami SMU game and then you start comparing them to the teams who are left over like there are 12 there are 11 teams plus the group of five representative that you can slot into your top 12 and then once you get the 13 it's like everybody

sucks like there's not a viable candidate to throw in there so you know i don't know if i believe that SMU in Miami as a two loss team would be One of the 12 best teams overall in college football, but they certainly would be one of the top 12 most deserving There's nobody else to put in there. That doesn't have three losses. So The thing that is interesting is the discussion that we've had all year about whether or not the committee is going to penalize teams Who were good enough to reach their conference championship game? is going to penalize teams who were good enough to reach their conference championship game. So if Miami or SMU lose this game, then I think that that loss will be viewed under that guise of like, yeah, well, they have two losses, but one came in a game that all the teams behind them

didn't have to play in. And if SMU loses, that'd be one loss in the ACC this year. That's probably a good enough resume to make the college football playoff. And if Miami loses, then they have an explosive offense. They're one of the most exciting players. They've lost two games this year. One was in a conference championship game, but other than that, they're a 10 and two team. And if we're sitting here talking about how the other teams at the bottom of the list are just automatically in, the question I would have for

you just to test the theory is if it's 10 and 2 Miami or 10 and 2 SMU Who has a lot of respect of a resume or 11 and 2 sorry? Who has a more impressive resume that you could throw in like who would the debate even be with at this point? well, though and the Miami ones interesting too because like if you want to a Spring in Ole Miss from yesterday, Miami played a game in the swamp. Ole Miss played a game in the swamp. The results were vastly different. Now you can argue that Florida's a vastly different team too,

but Miami played them when they were scheduled. You can't do anything about that and they beat them soundly. So obviously you can't do, you don't have common opponents for everybody, but there are situations like that where, and that is where we're coming in with this argument about the SEC and this discussion about the SEC, is the SEC, unlike a lot of other years, does not have the elite out of conference results to carry this notion that, oh, they're just all good and they're beating each other up now That could be true every bit of SEC propaganda could be true and the SEC teams that get into the playoff could dominate the teams

they play but I'm not sure that's What would happen? I I tend to think that as What would happen? I tend to think that as talent has spread out in the sport, it has spread out and you just maybe those teams are not as loaded as they used to be. Maybe the teams in the other leagues are a little better because the talent has spread out. We'll see. I mean, we've got the playoff and we've got the draft to tell us exactly how that shook out, but. I think. Going by the results is a good way to do this now. Yeah, well, Andy here. Oh, go ahead.

I just wanted to. I just wanted to show you and I'm you did bracketology so so you know, let's show the audience. But if if SMU or Miami have two losses at the end of the year. The teams to which they'll be compared would be Alabama, who have three losses now, Ole Miss who has three losses now. BYU potentially, depending on how their season turns out. Texas A&M who could have four losses at that point. Colorado, who now is a three loss team.

Clemson would be a two loss team if they went out without any quality wins and getting dumped trucked by Georgia and their only big game of the season. South Carolina's three loss team, then you're getting into like the Mizzou, Iowa State, UNLV, Illinois area of the rankings. So like there's no viable option if it's not a two loss team, which makes that a win or and you know, maybe Jim Phillips will feel like he did something.

team, which makes that a winner. And maybe Jim Phillips will feel like he did something. I don't know. Hey, look, he understood the assignment. Now, this may sound like we're dumping on the SEC. We're not. There's actually two other winners that we haven't talked about, and they're both from the SEC.

And one of them is the team that coming into the season, everybody thought was going to be the best team in the country, but 15 days ago, we watched that team lose by 18 points on the road. We saw Georgia get crushed in Oxford. Now they went on and beat Tennessee, which got them back in the mix. But Alabama losing to Oklahoma,

the biggest beneficiary of that was Georgia because Alabama. If Alabama went six and two in the SEC was going to win all of those tiebreakers about who played the toughest conference schedule. With them out, Georgia now wins those tiebreakers. So Georgia is in the SEC championship game. Georgia is in the playoff as long as they beat Georgia tech, which by the way, not a guarantee. Uh, another one, I'll throw this out there. I should have mentioned this on the show last night.

Ari, are we sure Alabama's going to win the iron bowl? Cause you're talking about Alabama being compared to these teams as, as the three line, what if they're eight and four? They're not being compared to anybody. I mean, I bet you the spread is going to be four. I mean, I thought Auburn looked pretty good. But Eddie, the Georgia game being firmly in isn't how they won. How they won was sneaking the way back door into

the SEC Championship game. And funny enough, you might laugh. But even if they end up losing to Georgia Tech next week, if they are to beat whoever they're matched up with in the SEC Championship game, they could be the number two seed. So, you know, we're we're looking at a team that went from firmly in coming into the weekend to still firmly in coming into the weekend, but potentially with the first round by as the two seed after a season that at times felt like it went off the

rails. So Georgia certainly benefited in the other tech in the last team that benefited, in my opinion, Andy is another SEC team and that's Texas. You know, Texas is a one-loss team and they are a win away from going to the SEC championship game. The only problem is that one win away is a road game at Kyle Field against A&M on Saturday. We have scrutinized and a lot of people have scrutinized Texas' schedule this year, and we have theorized that if they were to lose to A&M or lose in the SEC Championship game and then

drop out of that without a quality win, especially now that the A&M situation, although if they win, that game would be certainly impressive, will not move the committee because that would be a four loss team at that point. Like Texas could have found itself as a one loss. I mean, I sorry, a two loss team with no quality wins, a tougher schedule than Indiana, but an extra additional loss. Um, and if they were compared to other teams that were sitting there waiting

to get in that they might lose that debate. So much like Indiana, much like SMU and Miami, Texas has found its way to some breathing room now. And I think that the lesson and the moral of the story here is that if you can stomach being scrutinized all year for having a weak schedule or an easy schedule, the prize for that is being a team that's still standing at the end of the year when we're learning, you know, every week that it's harder and harder to go 10 and two than we thought. So like Texas had to shovel all the comments about who they didn't play, they didn't play anybody, they didn't play anybody for the last two months. And now at the end of the road, they might have not played anybody, but there's nobody for them not to go over. So like Indiana and Texas have actually proven that playing an easier schedule intentionally or not is actually an easier path to the playoff

than actually playing a tough schedule. Because once you get the three losses, it's hard to get in. And you know, I feel bad for Clemson in this scenario because if they would have just played Jacksonville State. Let me push back on that a little bit because let's look at Georgia. We just talked about Georgia, how comfortable they are right now. You know why they're comfortable? Because they have that win against Clemson. Yeah, well, they're also, they're also comfortable because they played the

toughest schedule in college football and have only lost twice. Like, I don't know if they didn't play Clemson this year if they wouldn't be in the same exact scenario. That's true. If you throw UTEP in there for Clemson. I hope that's not the case. Their SEC schedule was brutal, man. They got screwed.

So, but that's the way this game is gonna go now, Andy. Some years you're gonna get screwed. Some years you're gonna get an easy path. But when you do have the easy path, if you are good enough to hold on, which Texas has been, you know who else had an easy path Ole Miss. They weren't good enough to hold on. Correct. Getting the easy path. LSU path is one. I'm sorry, not LSU. Wait, no. Mizzou is another one. Missouri. Yes, that's right. Yep.

Getting the easy path is 50% of the battle winning those games is the other half. Because guess what? It turns out that winning is really hard. And maybe Indiana and Texas did a really good job of just winning their games. And there aren't a lot of teams that can say that. So Texas has some breathing room. SMU has some breathing room. I'm going to stop because we're talking about Texas as a charity case here. It is entirely possible Texas beats Texas A&M and then beats Georgia like I get that they played in Georgia one. But maybe Texas does not throw up all over itself offensively in the first half. Because if they're not just giving the ball to Georgia in that game, that's a very close game. It's a very low scoring close game with both offenses would have been

struggling. So I don't think just because Georgia beat Texas the first time they played, we should assume that Georgia is going to roll over them in the SEC Championship game if that's where they meet. I think Texas has probably evolved as a team since they played. So we're saying, oh, good job you won. It doesn't even need you didn't have that hard schedule you won good. We're like patting him on the head. I think we need to do that like if

they beat Texas A&M in an environment that's going to be off the charts. They're going to go play Georgia in Atlanta, and I think they have a chance to win that game. What's this? What's the spread in a hypothetical? Three Georgia, Texas SEC champion. I think I think that Georgia

probably be lying three. It's a field goal spread. Like we're not even talking about. A potential I'm not having sex. I'm just saying it's always great in this system in this year to get a game of breathing room which they didn't have maybe coming into it.

So those are the biggest winners and we'll see if there are any more winners next week, Andy, but that was, uh, some teams fell really hard and some teams had quite the come up. I want you to get the word out that we're back. We're back up. That's right. They're back. So subscribe to the on three sports YouTube channel.

If you want to see who might make the bracket, check out our bracket ology video, which is also coming on Sunday, check out our bubble watch video also coming on Sunday. All three of these videos will be stitched together in audio form and the podcast feed. So if you're tired of looking at our faces, just subscribe to the podcast feed on Spotify or Apple podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. And then you only have to listen to us. You don't have to look at us. So it's a great benefit. Ari, this is just a wild weekend.

I'm glad that we sifted through the wreckage. I cannot wait till rivalry week happens and then it blows up again. We have to do this again next week. I'll be we'll be together. So get ready and let's have some fun. Are we got done with our post game show late late Saturday night? I sat down to write the bracket ology column and I had the opposite problem of the week before the week before I was like, how do I, how do I set up these scenarios so that I can figure out who to put in because there's so many options after these games are I was like, how do I set up these scenarios so I have 12 teams in? Because it felt like all of the options had lost. Well, so it was a challenge.

What occurred to me was that the saucy nugget that I was boasting and taking a victory lap over this week, the saucy nugget take of there will be teams at the end of the year who feel like they got screwed actually did not come true. It felt like it was coming true last week when the SEC had a logjam, but it's pretty crazy what happens to clear the highway when Ole Miss and A&M and Alabama all lose on the same day. So, uh, yeah, it looks like everybody who gets in is going to be just for getting

in and everybody gets left out is going to be just for being left out. And the regular season, I think at the end of the day, we'll ended up taking care of it for us. But, you know, to me, I came into the weekend, Andy, or to the evening, feeling as if this bubble watch bracketology exercise was going to be incredibly difficult. But I actually found that once I figured out the tiebreakers or who's likely going to be playing in the, in the conference championship games, that it was actually quite easy. So I don't know if you had the same experience as you were working through it, but did you struggle at all outside of who do you put in once you figured it out? Not, not really. Who do I put in felt fairly easy. I, I remember getting to number 11, which would be my final at large, and thinking, okay, how do I do this?

Do I dip into the three loss teams? Do I make the ACC a two-bid league? And I actually found it fairly easy to predict the ACC as a two-bid league. Now, obviously SMU or Miami can screw that up if they lose next week. But right now, if Miami beats Syracuse and SMU beats Cal, I feel like the the ACC championship game loser is going to have a pretty deserving resume. Like they're going to be

pretty deserving of an at large bid. You considered a three loss SEC team over two loss ACC loser of the conference championship game, and I want to ask you in reverse because I didn't consider that at all when I was doing my project. Do you think the committee even thinks about that for a minute? Because I don't. I do. I think they might. Really? We had situations in the four team where there was a two loss team that you thought, oh, they're not even going to consider them and they went up being number five over a one loss number six.

Like it'll happen that some of them gets considered, but I just don't think there's anybody who can make that case right now. I think, I think the loser of the issue in this, in this scenario, that's the thing. It's like which three lost team, the only one that you could make the case is they're playing really well. And they had some weird losses at the beginning of the year that they have clearly not held on to is South Carolina.

But they would have had head to head losses to the two teams that you can't possibly- To Ole Miss and Alabama. And you always default to Alabama in this situation. Yeah. But I mean, they lost to Vanderbilt. The way they lost to Oklahoma was pathetic. Like that was awful. And Oklahoma has been bad. Like there is no, it's the rugged SEC.

Like you cannot excuse a 24 to three loss to Oklahoma through this Oklahoma team. You can't, you can't. I mean, so that's why. As you pointed out, they're not out of the woods in the Auburn game yet either. They could lose that one and be like off the boat completely. Yeah, if Auburn plays the way it did in the first half against Texas A&M,

they won't just beat Alabama, they would win comfortably. Now if Auburn plays like they did in the third and fourth quarters, Alabama win the game. But that's the thing. I don't even think they were having a conversation. Now, you and I had a conversation about this because I think your bubble watch is different I'm still predicting Oregon to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. You're predicting Ohio State to beat, Oregon I I think that's fine. You can do it any way you want to they're both really good. They played once

It was a one-point game. So however anybody wants to feel about that is fine. I do feel like I'm pretty comfortable with the loser of that game being the five-seat. Yeah, it's funny because I think that once the graphic hits Twitter today for Bubble Watch people are going to freak out and then I actually think that Oregon fans should write me like a letter of thank you for giving us an easier path to the semi-final. If you go look at the way that that all works out, I even, and like the way we veered also too, and you know, you can get more of this in the Bubble Watch explanation video that's also going to be up on this channel today, is that I don't even have Boise in my field anymore. So like they would be playing UNLV in that scenario.

So, you know, I think that going into the Big Ten championship game, if things hold the way that they are right now, it would actually be advantageous for either team to lose that game. And I think that people get upset when you say that. And I know that the Big 10 championship matters. And I'm assuming that Oregon in its first year in the conference would love to hang that banner. And I know Ohio State, who hasn't won it in four or five years now, would love to hang that banner too in their facilities. And, you know, they play to win and all those things. I get it. But in terms of pure path to the semifinals, there's no question that number five is easier than number one. Yeah. Now I have a different situation with my 12 seed and with my four seed. So I have Boise State as the four seed still in. The reason I did that is because we're projecting and I watched the whole Boise State Wyoming game. Boise State did not look good.

Ashton Gentry was banged up at the end of that game. Boise State was lucky to win and Wyoming is not a good team. So it is entirely why I switched. Yeah, it is entirely possible that boys, especially fashion, gente gets more banged up. They're playing Oregon state next week. They're going to be playing UNLV as long as UNLV beats Nevada next week. They'll be playing UNLV for the conference title. It's entirely possible. UNLV beats them. If they don't though, if Boise state goes 12 and one, I don't think the big 12 champ is going to pass them. I think Boise state will be the four seat if they're 12 and one. And that's the one where the graphic hits social media. People are going to go berserk.

Now I think the way the committee ranked them last week has sort of soften that a little bit because we're ESPN during the show, puts them into the bracket based on the way they're ranked. They had Boise State as a four seat. So it definitely helps educate a little bit, but the awareness gap is still there about how the seating works. It is entirely possible.

And one other thing I wanna point out because this is one I keep getting from a lot of people and I understand why you think this, because it's confusing. The top five ranked conference champs get into the playoff. They do not get the top five seeds. The top four ranked conference champs

get the top four seeds. The fifth one isn't tied to a buy, isn't tied to any particular seed. So if they are ranked fifth or lower down to 11, they're just that number. If they are ranked below 12, they get moved up to 12. I know it's so confusing and I'm sorry. Let's talk about prize picks. I did not have the best day on Saturday on prize picks. Alabama receiver Ryan Williams helped me out with the longest reception of 30 yards, which was

more than the 23 and a half prize pick square that I selected. But I did not get the Will Howard rushing yardage for Ohio State against Indiana because really Ohio State was running the ball well with its backs. Did not need Will Howard's legs that much. So that play did not work. What do I do? I know. Monday Night Football is going to help me out. We got a Harbaugh Bowl.

Harbaugh Bowl on Monday Night Football. So I'm going to play that on prize picks. If you're not playing prize picks already, best daily fantasy game in America, use the code staples when you sign up. you play $5, you get $50 instantly. Let's look at the Harbaugh bowl and Monday Night Football because we got Justin Herbert, Oregon Duck, his team's angling for the number one seed

in the college football playoff right now, but he's also angling for a pretty good seed in the NFL playoffs that the Chargers keep playing the way they have been playing great for Jim Harbaugh. By the way, helping out Jim Harbaugh. Buckeye named JK Dobbins like we could see a Buckeye helping out Jim Harbaugh on the week of. The Ohio State Michigan game. JK Dobbins 48 and a half rushing yards more or less.

I'm thinking maybe more. Derek Henry, the other. Top back in this game, 86 and a half rushing yards. That seems a lot against a very physical Chargers defense, but it is Derek Henry and he's a freak. And of course, Lamar Jackson, 237 and a half passing yards. Will he go more or less? It's the first hardball bowl since that Super Bowl where Beyonce turned out the lights. It's going to be electric. It's going to be more fun if you're playing a prize pick. So download the app, use the code staples, play $5,

get $50 instantly. So Ari, let's talk about my 12, because I've got Arizona State there. It doesn't have to be Arizona State. It's just catch all Big 12 champ. There are four teams tied for the Big 12 champion to get into the Big 12 championship game right now with two conference losses.

So it's Arizona State, the you Colorado and Iowa State. Any combination of those could wind up playing in the in the championship game. And actually, if all four of them lose, it actually could be Baylor Texas Tech in the big 12 championship game. I can talk to the scenario last night where we're Colorado played Baylor. For the big 12 champion, like it's nuts. But Arizona State is the hottest team in the big 12, not named Kansas.

Kansas has been mathematically eliminated, so I had Arizona State is the hottest team in the Big 12, not named Kansas. Kansas has been mathematically eliminated, so I had Arizona State here. Yeah, I put Arizona State here because Arizona State goes to the Big 12 championship game against Iowa State. If all four teams win next week and finish in a four-way tie. And I thought that, you know, Arizona state has, I think that Arizona state has the most scenarios or pathways to that game. Um, and I also think that they're the hottest team right now. So you put all those things together and you have Arizona state there at the end. And, and that makes a lot of sense.

And I'm not a hundred percent sure if I'm on board with your Boise as the four seed thought, but I'm excited to see how that plays out because the, the big 12 champion, um, certainly is not as strong or it doesn't seem as strong as we thought it could be maybe a week ago. But at the same time too, Arizona state still a two lost team. That's got a lot of, uh, you know, firepower behind it. Okay. So you tell me, cause the committee has to just jump them. So the committee has to move Arizona State above Boise State. When

do they do that? Do they do that next week if Arizona State beats Arizona? I think they would probably do it and be justified in doing so if Arizona State finishes the job and wins the Big 12 championship. And that's after Boise State beats UNLV for a second time, which is also a team that's ranked by the committee. Yeah. Okay, I don't think that's gonna happen. I think if Boise State is 12 and one, they're gonna be the four seed.

My question is whether Boise State's gonna be 12 and one. I think that is the bigger question. It's not helping your thoughts that Boise State's like struggling with Wyoming for four quarters right now. And I think that like the committee is, there's already an inherent bias. If Penn State struggle with Minnesota, they won. No I think that like the committee is already an inherent. State struggle with Minnesota, they won.

No, I know, but there's levels to this. And I think that you cannot excuse how the committee has traditionally treated group of five teams in this discussion. It's not just an, it's not an apple for apple scenario here. So I'm not saying you're wrong and it can't happen. I'm just saying I would give some,

you, you are, you are having no faith in the committee to engage in an honest dialogue about what it's already done and the rankings has already put out. Yeah. And I also think that the committee will, although they say they will never project for or to probably project forward and say, who do we think would have won that game? And I think they would pick Arizona State. Also to existential crisis on my hands here. But when you talk about the group

of five, if you want to go down the rabbit hole of the Boise State situation, if Boise State were to lose to UNLV, then maybe Tulane goes. Like I'm not necessarily sure that UNLV would be the shoe in to go in that scenario. So yeah, although I think they should, they would have avenged one of their two losses and their other one was a late Friday night loss to Syracuse and a game where they got jobbed by the refs at the end. So you and LV also beat Kansas and Houston. So they beat power conference teams to lane lost their, their two games to power conference

teams, which were Kansas state and Oklahoma, which were not, they did not wind up being superpowers. Yeah. Like Kansas state was good. Oklahoma, not so much now is pre Oklahoma injuries. So a little bit different, but let's talk about the rest of the bracket. Let's so like we said, loser of the big 10 championship game is going to be there at number five, probably the most advantageous path. Penn State. I've got them at six. They barely beat Minnesota,

but they benefit from everybody else kind of falling out. They're not going to wind up getting compared to these two loss SEC teams other than Tennessee. Uh, they're going to be, you know, in the, in the mix here, I like that James Franklin got aggressive and won the game on his own terms. The fake punt, the going forward on fourth down a couple of times. That's how you're going to have to call it if you want to win these games in the playoff. So I'm kind of excited to see them now in the playoff. Yeah, they get to host a playoff game it looks like and they're not going to be scrutinized.

So Penn State, they always are perennial, perennial, annually, sorry, you can't say that word. Perennial work too. Annually seem to be a team that ranks in between 10 and 13 and would just be the beneficiary of one of the last spots and actually Tennessee, they had a much better year than they typically have. And maybe it's because Michigan wasn't very good and they did only lose the one game on their schedule against a really good team, but they're gonna finish probably with the six or seven seed at this point and host a game. So that's gonna be a nice little situation for them,

for sure. You wanna watch me make the chat light up? You ready? You ready? Yeah. I got Notre Dame at number seven. Here it comes, here it comes. Did you remember that Notre Dame lost in Northern Illinois?

Did you remember? Look at this. I guarantee you it's saying that right now. Guarantee. Yeah. Well, good thing we're not we're not looking at it. But yes, I think that people fixate on that and Notre Dame undressed Army last night and is in a really really good spot. They still have to go out and beat USC. USC beat UCLA on Saturday night.

Maybe it's a tough game. I don't know what's going on, but they're all both firmly in. Yeah, I know everybody wants to be mad about that. Wants it to be an example of how Notre Dame gets preferential treatment. But the thing is, if we're gonna respect the group of five teams who are playing well,

like Navy came in undefeated and Notre Dame crushed them. Navy came in undefeated and Notre Dame crushed them. Army came in undefeated, Notre Dame crushed them. Notre Dame hasn't won at Texas A&M. The team I have at number eight is Texas. We're saying Texas needs to get that win at Texas A&M to firmly put itself in the playoff. Like, I don't see a lot of differences with Notre Dame and these other teams we're talking about. So, I don't see a lot of differences with Notre Dame and these

other teams we're talking about. So yeah, and it gives names. Lock is uglier, but they also have taken care of business at a at a level that the other teams haven't. And I've said this before, Andy, but I'm less alarmed by losing to NIU in a sleepwalking game and getting your doors blown off by Georgia at home in the one big game you played. If you want to actually like nitpick resumes that are firmly in, that's that I think that's more than I have. I think that's right. And I have Texas and Texas needs to beat Texas A&M.

They'll go to the SEC Championship game in that case. Now at that point they can play for a much higher seat. They can play for the two seat probably. But if they win that game against Texas A&M, they will play against Georgia. If they lose to Georgia, they'll still be in. Here's my question though, Ari. This is the really interesting one. What if Texas A&M beats Texas,

and then A&M loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, thereby taking its fourth loss? Texas probably still gets an at- at 10 and two and A&M probably gets left out. Like that's psychological torture for the Aggies right there. Yeah. Which makes you want to pick Texas A&M because that's exactly how you feel like it's going to turn out for those poor people. Like, just like, uh, you know, the way that they lost that game, if you go watch

our Saturday night reaction show, like that, that reaction, people were texting me, did you lose money on the way that I reacted? And frankly speaking, I had zero dollars on that game. That was my genuine real reaction to watching how they lost. And it's like, why can't these people just be happy? Like, like, what did they do? Like you want to talk about curses? I mean, geez.

And if they go out and beat Texas, that'd be the biggest, most euphoric night of Texas A&M football, maybe since the Johnny Manziel era, and then it'd be met with the worst nightmare ever, which is a confirmation of the inferiority complex that they'd possessed when it comes to that team. Beating Texas is still not good enough to get chosen over them.

That's like some diabolical, always the bridesmaid type of stuff. Right. Yeah. So next up, I've got Tennessee at nine and Indiana at 10. You can put them in whatever order you want. Basically, these were the teams we were arguing about last week because we thought they were going to be the two fighting for the last at large after Indiana lost to Ohio State.

Indiana lost to Ohio State. Ohio State dominated the game. That was what a lot of people predicted. That's kind of what we were running the hypothetical argument off of. But now I don't think that matters. Like put them wherever you want between 9 and 11. Let them go on the road and let them earn it. Let them prove it. Like if Tennessee goes on the road in this situation, Tennessee would have to go to Austin, which would be great because that is a game involving two SEC teams that did not play this year. Like that would be a lot of fun to see Tennessee play at Texas. The whole real UT thing, like different shades of orange

and be really cool. Be a great game. Indiana. Indiana, in this scenario, in this particular bracket, would go north to South Bend and play for the state title. Yeah. And the right to move on. Yeah, I was looking at the bracket that I came up with too and there's a lot of interesting first round games. So, for sure.

And I love that the SEC had all beat up on each other and we still need more games to prove who's the best team in the SEC. That's very funny to me, but that's the era we're in. But yeah, I'm the most intrigued and I think that'll be a story of this this bowl season of which teams are going to go up north and show us who's actually superior because there's a lot of you know, SEC stinks this year. Indiana stinks like watching Indiana play a team from the SEC that was in that cluster will be fascinating because we'll get a real litmus test in those games of whether or not

Indiana is closer to Ohio State or closer to Purdue. Like, you know, I think that they're closer to Ohio State. We'll see. Yeah. And the thing is, I like that with those two particularly, like, send them on the road. If they win a tough game on the road and advance in the playoff, then we didn't need to have that argument. Like, they both earned it and it's fine. I like that because just handing one of them home game might be a little bit different.

But I think if they go on the road and win a game and advance, then great. Ari, I'm very excited about this. The matchups are spectacular. This is going to be so much fun if this is how it turns out. That said, this past weekend was so crazy. And what we see going forward might change it considerably because we still have two more weekends. We still have the rivalry week and championship weekend to shake some more of these spots out. And we will be having a completely different conversation a week from now, and I'm here for it. Ari, we've done these bubble watch videos every week

and they've been fairly contentious. The chat's lit up because there's been a lot of different arguments. This feels different because it feels like there's not a lot of teams on the bubble after what happened Saturday. You know what this actually is Andy. It's bubble watch, but nobody's actually on the bubble. We're watching teams, but they're not really there. So the thing that I found going into the weekend, and I'm sure you did too with Bracketology, Andy,

is that I thought this was going to be inherently difficult. You know, with all the chaos, whenever you have all these teams losing unexpectedly, it really is hard to, you know, go through all the results and try to figure out mathematically who's playing in the conference championship games, who's out, who's in. Like, it's hard. But actually, once you found your top 12, and once you kind of decided who you thought was going to win the conference championship games, I thought it was very straightforward. So,

you know, my bracket, I think mirrors very similarly to yours. We have a few differences. I've got Ohio State No. 1 and Oregon 5. You have them flipped. I think we both have SMU in at the 11 seat or as a second ACC team. Arizona States in my bracket, like there's a lot of similarities, but when you get to the bubble, that's why there's really no bubble watch because the first four out that I have in my bubble watch this week are Alabama, Clemson, Ole Miss, and Iowa State. And I think when people look at the bubble watch thing every week, they're thinking of teams that are so close to getting in and might get in. But we're not technically dead, but they need a lot of help. But if chalk goes, Alabama will not make the playoff and I don't think

they'll make it no matter what Clemson will not make the playoff. Ole Miss won't make the playoff after suffering their third loss in Iowa state who could play Arizona state in the big 12 championship game. If they were to lose that game, would not make it. So the only team that really, I think you could say, has the best chance of making the playoff at all for the first four teams out is Iowa State. They'd have to play their way into it on the field.

Yeah, Iowa State is the one that can play its way into it on the field. The other team that can play its way into it on the field is Texas A&M. Texas A&M can beat Texas. That would make the SEC championship game for Texas A&M. Then they would have to beat Georgia. I actually think they have to win both to make it in because that's the three loss team right now. It's not working out any other way. We were watching the Texas A&M Auburn game, the crazy four overtime game.

And it was interesting how it shook out because if Texas A&M won that game, there was going to be a scenario where Texas A&M would have made, could have made the SEC championship game against Texas, regardless of the result of the Texas Texas A&M game. I'm glad it worked out this way, where you get the incredibly high stakes of the Texas and Texas A&M game at Kyle Field because I was like sweating the entire game hoping for the most stakes I didn't want A&M to lose I wanted everything and it turned out you didn't even realize they needed to lose to get the stakes that's how convoluted the stuff is Andy like I didn't even know that I was right against my interests well and that's that's

the other thing like you mentioned Iowa State I had to, while you were talking, I went back to the site that we've been using to simulate these things, and it's bball.notnothing.net if you wanna have some fun. So I went back to the Big 12 one, and I was like, wait, if they all win, is it Arizona State, Iowa State, or Arizona State, BYU? No, if they all win, it's Arizona State, Iowa State. So if Iowa State wins Farmer Gettin,

and then we're to beat Arizona State in the Big 12 title game, then they would be in the playoff. So they can play their way in. So you've got this is this is where you have like the basketball where you what we're used to with the tournament champ bid thief situation. And we don't have that as much in in football probably won't have that much as much in football but that's where that comes into play well I think that the thing that bubble watch meant to me when we started doing this is here

are the teams that might lose a debate right or teams that are at the end of the road pretty close to being in. And what I've found is as the results pour in, every week goes by, the bubble watch becomes less of a debate and more just the circumstance of where these teams are going to be ranked at the end of the year. My next four out here, Andy, are South Carolina, Colorado, Texas A&M, and Illinois. Now A&M, as you mentioned, could play their way in if they were to beat Texas and win the SEC championship game, they are in the playoff field.

But South Carolina is probably dead in the water. Not probably. They are Colorado. I still think that there's a slim chance for them to play in Dallas and play their way into the field. But again, they're probably going to be ranked somewhere in the 20s, which is where you would find them on this chart. As a three loss team now, Texas A&M has to play their way in and then Illinois is going to finish the season as a 10 and two or a nine and three team and they'll be ranked number 22.

So like there's no Illinois discussion at all in the playoff, but as it pertains to where they're going to end up in the final CFP poll, they're going to be in the next four out. Like, so like there's no team that's just sitting in the wings waiting to get in. The only teams that are on my bubble watch that can get in have to play their way in and some of them need the circumstances

to even allow them to play in to work out in their favor. Can we explain South Carolina? Because that's one that's kind of been a cause for everybody. If South Carolina were to beat Clemson, there'll be nine and three. They'd be one of the better nine and three teams in the country.

And everyone's like, wow, this is such a good nine and three team, that's a team I wouldn't want to play, they're scary, blah, blah, blah. Here's why South Carolina wouldn't be in, they would be blocked. They would be blocked by Alabama, which has three losses, and beat South Carolina. And they would be blocked by Ole Miss,

which has three losses and beat South Carolina and they would be blocked by Ole Miss which has three losses and beat South Carolina. Yeah, so I think South Carolina is probably playing better, not probably is playing better than those teams, but again they lost a few that you know the Ole Miss game less so, but they lost a few heartbreakers that they could have won and if they would have beaten LSU or they would have beaten Alabama games that they were winning in the fourth quarter, they would have been in the field right now. So, you know, but again, you have to win your games and you know, you got to I know we did a lot of excusing of SEC losses this year, Coach Prime, Travis Hunter, Chador and company in the playoff after losing to Kansas yesterday and not being able to tackle anybody, the path is there. The path is there.

So here's how I'm playing around in the big 12 tiebreaker side right now. Ari, if you were to see Colorado having a playing around in the background on the calculator. Oh yeah. If you want to see Colorado play in the Big 12 championship game, what you need is, it's really, it's not as complicated as I thought it was going to be. BYU needs to lose to Houston. Iowa State needs to lose to Farmageddon to Kansas State. And yes, that was just an excuse for me to say Farmageddon because it's my favorite rivalry name. That would give you Colorado Arizona State if somehow Arizona

State were to lose the territorial cup game to your alma mater Ari which I don't think is going to happen but if it somehow happened and BYU lost to Houston and Iowa State lost to Kansas State your big 12 championship game would be Colorado Baylor. And who would have had that at the beginning of the season? Electricity. Yeah. So I did what I could in terms of the most likely. That's why I arrived with Arizona State at the forum. Well, here's another reason why. Because both of us talked about this. We were texting back and forth as we were writing, you were doing bubble watch. I was doing bracket ology. The

ACC suddenly feels like a two bid league as long as Miami and SMU win next week and both enter the ACC championship game at 11 and one. Yeah. And, you know, funny enough, if the 11 seed and the three seed play each other in the three seeds first game in the playoff field. So like you are starting to see you know if Miami is in fact or the winner of the ACC Championship game could be SMU2 is in fact the three and the losers the 11 they would play in the second round if they were to advance again if the team the loser would advance in the first round. So yeah no there the bracket is exciting to look at but you know the biggest winner of my bubble watch is Oregon because they went from having to face the winner of a hypothetical matchup between Tennessee and Texas to playing UNLV in Arizona State.

So like the the the five seed versus one seed, you know, is not like the best season seed to have unless what you think comes true and Boise is the four and then, you know, I think if they just keep winning, they'll be the four. But that you disagree with me on that. We'll see. Yeah, I don't think it's impossible, though. So, you know, we'll see how that goes. But yeah, the bubble watch is really the out watch because most of these teams are going to finish in between, you know, 13 and 22 in the rankings, but really have no realistic path into the field at the moment. So, not really that, I don't think people are gonna get upset because it just kind of is what it is at this point. It is, and it's more watching teams on the bubble that can still play their way in is what we're gonna be watching. Now, we keep making a lot of assumptions,

and I warned last week, don't make so many assumptions, weird things can happen. And then you get Florida beating Ole Miss and you get Oklahoma destroying Alabama. Those three lost teams that we've utterly dismissed. If there's more chaos next week, we actually may be talking about them on the bubble this time next week. There's no telling we We've never been through this before. It's never happened before.

We don't know how it's gonna go. We do know November tends to get a little weird. It got very weird this past weekend. See if it gets even weirder next week.