Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Playoff DISASTER SCENARIOS | Can Carson Beck bounce back?

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

You’ve had Wendy’s Nuggs dipped in sauce. But have you had them covered in sauce? Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11. Choose between flavors ...like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker, try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. I dare ya. That’s seven delicious ways to try the nuggs you already love. Pick a flavor, grab some extra napkins and prepare to nugg like you’ve never nugged before. For a whole new way to Nugg, It’s Gotta BeWendy’s. This show is sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES Wunderfan is a first of its kind college football stadium rewards app where fans earn real rewards simply by cheering for their favorite team. All you need to do is head to the app store to download the app, check in once you're at the game or tailgate, and let your earnings grow! It's that easy. During each game you attend you'll earn in the background once you press “Start.” Once you have enough earnings you can redeem for gift cards to your favorite brands like: Fanatics, Dick's, Lululemon, Home Depot, & Many More. There's even ticket giveaways & fun contests you can use your points to enter. New rewards are added weekly! Right now, users will get 50 Free Wunder just for signing up 40 more for using the code STAPLES. That'll score you a $10 off Fanatics code + a chance to win tickets to the National Championship! Again, just head to the app store and search "Wunderfan" - W-u-n-d-e-r-f-a-n, and start being paid for your fan loyalty. Wunderfan, It pays to be a fan. Wendy’s Saucy Take Wednesday has been transformed to Wendy’s Saucy Disaster Scenario Wednesday. What is the biggest disaster that could befall the teams or the conferences trying to make the College Football Playoff?(0:00-0:36) Try the Wendy's Saucy Nuggs Today!(0:37-2:35) Intro; Saucy Disaster Wednesday(2:36-7:12) Looking back at the CFP Rankings Reveal(7:13-9:47) Nico Iamaleava's Status at Georgia(9:48-20:00) Deep Dive into CFP Rankings(20:01-24:15) Producer River hops on to ask about Notre Dame(24:16-31:55) Carson Beck Preview vs Tennessee, Presented by PrizePicks(31:56-34:39) Thank you to Wunderfan!(34:40-39:58) SEC MADNESS(39:59-45:00) Is South Carolina in the mix at all?(45:01-1:05:02) Deep Dive into Disaster Scenarios(1:05:03-1:08:09) Conclusion; Dear Andy & Ari tomorrow!   You’ve contributed your own disaster scenarios, and Andy and Ari have come up with some of their own. We’ve got some doozies for… Georgia Ohio State The SEC Texas and Texas A&M The Big 12 Watch us on YouTube instead! https://youtube.com/live/7vladD7VGa0 Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You've had Wendy's Nugs dipped in sauce, but have you had them covered in sauce? Wendy's new saucy Nugs take this crispy and spicy Nugs you love and turn them up to 11. Choose between flavors like Buffalo, honey, barbecue, garlic, parm, or of course, the hot and spicy variety of all of those flavors. Or if you're a true heat seeker,
Starting point is 00:00:19 try the spicy ghost pepper, I dare you. That's seven delicious ways to try the Nugs you already love. Pick a flavor, grab some napkins, and prepare to nug like you have never nugged before. For a whole new way to nug, it's gotta be Wendy's at Participating US Wendy's. Welcome to Andy and Ariane 3. It would normally be a Wendy's sauciest take Wednesday, but.
Starting point is 00:00:48 We're changing things up. We had a little burst of inspiration after college football playoff ranking reveal last night. We're making it a Wendy's sauciest disaster scenario. When the Wednesday because there are some potential scenarios out
Starting point is 00:01:03 there where your team or. Probably better for you, your rivals team could be left just crying. Crying and left out of the college football playoff there. Ari there's chaos looming around every corner here. Yeah, I think that's what happens when one conference specifically could have eight teams tied for first at the end of the year. I don't know if this is a contingency, uh, there's a contingency plan for this, but there are going to be some heartbreakers.
Starting point is 00:01:34 And I feel like when I wrote that column that you and I argued about two weeks ago about there being a bunch of teams who feel like they, uh, have a case or should be in the playoff that are left out. Like I couldn't have even dreamt up what is actually occurring right now in the sport. So, uh, yeah, like the sec is an absolute mess and you have sec teams who are in the mix, who are also playing games still out of conference that could mess things
Starting point is 00:02:00 up, not just in the sec race, but in the playoff race. So yeah, no, I'm super excited to talk through some of these scenarios. A lot of times when you do chaos scenarios, we know in the back of our heads are probably not going to happen. But like, I feel like in this season, there's actually a chance of them occurring. So some of these are definitely going to happen. Yeah. Yeah, Yeah, so we had some of the listeners send in chaos scenarios.
Starting point is 00:02:30 We've got those queued up. We're gonna talk about them. We gotta talk a little bit of news. We also need to talk about the rankings themselves. If you want a deeper dive into the college football playoff rankings, we did a show as they were being revealed last night. So that'll be in your podcast feed right now. That's on demand on the on three sports YouTube channel
Starting point is 00:02:49 as well. So if you want a much deeper discussion of the rankings themselves, we've got that there for you. But let us talk about this. The big movers were Miami falling down to nine, Georgia falling to 12, which would make Georgia the first team out because 13 Boise state would be your highest ranked group of five champ or your, your fifth highest ranked conference champ is probably the more correct way to say it. Obviously Ari Georgia's not out as long as they can beat Tennessee this weekend. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:23 And there are some things happening potentially with the Tennessee quarterback position, which make, make things interesting. And then of course you have the Georgia quarterback discussion. Um, but yeah, like I feel like too, a lot of times when we get into these rankings arguments, I even have gone down arguments myself about rankings of teams that control their own destiny. And like, for instance, last week, Indiana controls its own destiny. And I was going to bat for them. SMU controls its own destiny. BYU does.
Starting point is 00:03:54 A lot of the teams still left based on the way that this playoff system is set up controls their own destiny. That's the other part of this. Like, if you win your conference and you're alive in your conference championship race, and the only thing that gets you out of that race is by losing yourself, then the rankings are not a big deal for you. Like, and that's the biggest change to the system really, because in the past there were no automatic qualifiers. Even if you won your conference, that wasn't good enough
Starting point is 00:04:21 sometimes. Like now, if you win your conference, like there's a lot of ways to stop us from worrying about it. That doesn't mean that there aren't crazy things, but like. Yeah, like how bad can you feel for Indiana or BYU when they control everything that's in front of them? And Colorado is a good example of this. Because Colorado is sitting there at 17 right now. But as long as Colorado keeps winning, their playoff future is in their own hands. They're not having to worry
Starting point is 00:04:52 about what somebody else thinks about it. I mean, I guess there's a slim, slim chance that maybe they have to worry if Army goes undefeated. And then, would a two, two loss big 12 champ, not be in the top 12 and also not be among the five highest ranked conference champions. But I think that the possibility of that is so slim that it's not something you really even worry about. You just worry about continuing to win and you're okay. Because I've thought about this and I'm happy you brought that up. continuing to win and you're okay. Cause I've thought about this and I'm happy you brought that up.
Starting point is 00:05:26 Because there is a mechanism in this year's system for the highest ranked G5 team or the highest ranked conference champions. Do you think that if that were somehow to happen and Colorado won out, looked impressive in all of their games for the rest of the year, and then army beat Notre Dame and won the American undefeated.
Starting point is 00:05:47 But they still wouldn't try to find a spot for Colorado as an at large. Like I still feel like. That's what I mean. I think they still might be ranked number 12. And they'd be like, yeah, being a big 12 champion with two losses probably would be every would be a resume that would be good enough to be an at large. 11 and two, right? Yeah, right. I think they'd probably be ranked number 12 or number 11 and still get in. So that that wouldn't be as big. But it there are other potential possibility like the will get into the SEC thing, the potential eight way tie at the top of the SEC, but it's it's amazing. It really that that one.
Starting point is 00:06:31 Recalling it a disaster scenario for the SEC, I don't think it would necessarily be a disaster for the SEC itself because the SEC is still going to get a bunch of teams in the college football playoff, but it would be disaster for the individual teams. football playoff, but it would be a disaster for the individual teams that didn't make it that felt like they should have that had a similar record to the ones that did. So there's a lot to talk about, but Ari, let's first talk about this game in Athens this weekend that, you know, Tennessee doesn't have to win it because that this would only be lost number two for them. But they probably feel like they do because of what happens next after that because of the looming potential giant tie. And then, of course, the news is, is Nico Iamaleava going to play because you've got, you know, talk about him being in concussion protocol. Is he, is he going to be able to play now?
Starting point is 00:07:28 Josh Hyple has said he feels like Nico is on track to play our guys at ball quest, the great Tennessee site at on three, they've said that it looks like he's on track to play. So we think he's going to play. Now, sorry, I would argue that even if Nico plays, it doesn't guarantee Tennessee anything. It's not like Tennessee's offense has been unstoppable against good defenses with Nico at the helm. I think either way, this is a fairly low scoring game. Andy, galaxy brain with me for a minute. Alright, alright, let's go. Tennessee, we do not perceive to be in a must-win scenario 100%. Now, obviously losing puts them in dangerous
Starting point is 00:08:15 territory, but they're not out with a loss, right? Right. And they're playing on the road. If Niko did not play and they lost a close game or lost by 10, the committee would have to consider. Don't you think that they would be in better position at the end of the year to make the playoff as a 10 and two team than losing to Georgia on the road with Nico playing? Because the committee would say you didn't have Nico and that's why I mean, it's's possible anytime you can cast out on a loss and create a discussion around that loss I think it's an advantageous move and in a scenario where like and I know this is like complete bitch ball like I'm not advocating I don't think they would
Starting point is 00:08:56 do this but like they win this game Ari and then beat Vanderbilt they're in the SEC Championship game yeah and I'm not saying that they tank the game or he doesn't play, but I also don't feel like the sky would be falling if it got to the point where they did not feel like he could. You know what I mean? And because if your losses to Georgia on the road without your starting quarterback, and then you finish the season with two losses in the SEC
Starting point is 00:09:21 and overall two losses, you probably still have a pretty compelling case. And we know beyond the shadow of a doubt that we take quarterback injuries into account when making discussions on who gets into the playoff. I mean, Jordan, the state all about that. Like, I mean, that's what they do. So, um, there was one thing that happened after we hung up last night that bothered me about something else, um, and I won't do this now, but like the, I want to discuss something
Starting point is 00:09:49 ward manual said that bothered me. Um, go for it. Let's let it rip. So I saw, um, that he said when asked directly about SMU, uh, and Miami, why Miami was ranked higher. And he just said, the committee felt like Miami has played better this year. We think they're better.
Starting point is 00:10:13 Yeah. Yeah. So we always knew that the committee will do whatever it wants. I think what we think is that they use the protocols to craft the rankings. But what I think actually happens is that they use the wins and all the information that we use to put together a top 12.
Starting point is 00:10:35 And then when asked about their rankings, they fall back on protocol to try to explain what they're doing. Well, right. I don't think it's the other way around. They retcon it to make it, to make what they want doing. Well, right. I don't think it's the other way around. They retcon it to make it to make what they want make sense. Right. So, but which is why when you ask about team A, they say, well, this is the reason. But you asked her on team B, they say, well, this totally different thing that contradicts why you liked team A is the reason. But the thing that frustrates me, and I understand, like I understand why they do it or have to do it, but is when you make a ranking that is not explainable
Starting point is 00:11:15 with any of the protocol metrics, then you just say, well, we just felt like that was a better team. Like you are just, then what's the point of having protocol at all? Like what's the point of having metrics at all? Because you're going to do what you feel. And I'm not even saying you're wrong in doing that, but these are supposed to be guidelines that help you form these rankings. And if SMU has an advantage in most, if not all of those metrics based on the conference they play on the schedule, metrics based on the conference they plan,
Starting point is 00:11:45 the schedule they played, the wins they've accumulated along the way. And their loss is better. And the only thing that you can say at the end of the road is, well, we just think that's the right choice. Well, you could say that about anything. You could, you could put Georgia Tech number one in the polls and say, well, we think that's a choice. Like that's not, that's not an explanation. That's just, we're doing whatever we want. And the committee will do whatever they want, but it's just uncomfortable to me when you get to a point where somebody asks you a pointed question
Starting point is 00:12:12 about two specific teams, their places in the ranking. And like, we're not talking about a spot or two here. We're talking about five spots and the difference between being in and out. So- Let me explain, like, there's no advanced metric that says Miami is significantly better than SMU like their strength of schedule is very close, right?
Starting point is 00:12:32 They've reached out one loss as he's only losses to an undefeated team like it's very similar. It best wins manual was asked about it. There was not a metric that he could have fallen back on the way they did with Penn State and Indiana last week. With Penn State and Indiana, they found the one metric that was better for Penn State. They said the strength of schedule was much better.
Starting point is 00:12:54 So it's like, okay, you have to accept that. But when you have nothing in your response as well, that's just what we felt. So we're ranking on feelings now, is that what we're doing? That's what we've always done. But you're right. I mean, that's what this is because like SMU and Miami literally have the same best win.
Starting point is 00:13:12 It's at Louisville in a game that was back and forth that each of the winners took over at the end of the fourth quarter. Like that is the same. They played basically the same game and they have similar strength of schedule. They each have one loss. You can argue that the loss that SMU took is quote unquote better than the loss that Miami took. But I
Starting point is 00:13:35 actually think we're going to find out Georgia Tech when Haynes King is playing is really pretty good. So and I think BYU is probably going to drop one here. So I think it's probably those are probably going to be a here. So I think it's probably, those are probably going to be a bit of a wash. So yeah, one shouldn't be five ahead of the other. And the thing I resent about the system, and I've always resented this Andy,
Starting point is 00:13:53 is that somehow we've gotten away, like in the BCS era, like if you lost, like that was like, that was it. Like losing- Not really., no, I'm saying like losing was the number one metric to knock yourself out of the race. I'm not saying it wasn't the only that you were dead 100% of the time with a loss, but that was how we, we got to that point, right? Like I know it was a long math equation, but you had to, I feel like losing in 2001 in 2010 was a hell of a lot of a bigger deal than losing now.
Starting point is 00:14:29 Is that a fair thing to say? Sure. And losing in the 14 era, it was a bigger deal to lose in 2010 than it was in 2014. So the thing that I resent about the current system is that we have wrapped ourselves up so much in protocol and metrics and all those other things that you discuss in the committee room that we've almost found that losing is secondary. And it's like the whole point of the game is you win and you lose and who you lose to should matter. And losing should matter. And we have, you beat should matter too. And that's the other part.
Starting point is 00:15:06 But I don't know that it should be so lopsided that if you beat a good team, that your terrible loss does not matter at all. Like we've gotten to a point where we've accepted and normalized that losing to certain teams or certain games, Mr. Notre Dame should be in the playoff. They have the worst loss of any team that would be in the bracket. I know. I understand that. I'm no, I didn't, I'm not Mr. Notre Dame should be in the playoff. They have the worst loss of any team that would be in the bracket. I know, I understand that. I'm, no, I didn't, I'm not Mr. Notre Dame
Starting point is 00:15:27 should be in the playoff. I'm Mr. Notre Dame will be in the playoff. There's a very big difference between those two things. And I think that we should get to the point where getting beaten by a bad team or a perceived bad team hurts you more than it does right now. And that's my number one criticism of the entire system. Because at the end of the day, we're watching games to figure out winners and losers. And I still wish
Starting point is 00:15:48 that losses held more weight in the committee members minds than at least be proportionate to how much a good win matters. Like, but it's not proportionate. A good win matters more than a bad loss. Treat them. I don't think that's the problem. I think the problem is they treat it different. They treat the same thing differently for different teams. And you're seeing this with Miami and SMU. They're the same. Like as close to the same as any of these two teams on this grid can be. And yet they're five spots apart. They are the same. They should be one spot apart. They are the same. They should be one spot. I don't think that we should view losing to BYU in a three point closely contested game in losing to Georgia Tech
Starting point is 00:16:32 as the same thing. That's my point. I actually think by the end of the season, we will view it as fairly similar. Yeah, but in the moment, all we have is the information that we have in front of our face. We have to rank based on the information. So BYU who almost lost to Utah. You think that's like...
Starting point is 00:16:47 I think that BYU... I think it's pretty close. I think BYU is definitively a better loss than losing to Georgia Tech, yes. Sure, it's a better loss, but it's not... Miami has a slightly higher strength of schedule. So those things probably balance out. But I'm saying, I want losses to be at the top of the protocol. One spot apart. Yeah, this thing's probably balanced out. I'm saying I want losses to be at the protocol One spot apart. I don't like when things that aren't the results of the games matter more than the results of the games
Starting point is 00:17:21 Well, we're agreeing here. Yeah, but you're taking it too granular. The point is they should be one spot apart and they're five spots apart 100% but it's not just an SMU in Miami thing. It's an everybody thing. It is. And I think because it's not her name. She's losing to NYU more than they are. It should not matter. Oh, if Notre Dame had lost to NYU, I think they'd be out. I said, and I use it. I said, NYU, you said, NYU, does NYU have a sick football team? It'd be artsy. Do you know that the guy who is the model for the Heisman Trophy was an NYU player, Ed Smith? Interesting, interesting. Yeah. That's a fun fact.
Starting point is 00:17:50 That's another one of the, we have to start, we have to try to sponsor your random fact of the day. Like that would be cool. Brought to you by National Geographic. Andy tells you why we clink glasses before we have a drink. Like. Oh, do you know why that is?
Starting point is 00:18:04 I think I do. Yeah. Why? I it was from a comedy movie. This is where I learned it. It was a deleted scene from the breakup where Vince Vaughn was talking about clinking glasses and I guess in the medieval times or some time period,
Starting point is 00:18:18 they used to clink glasses so that why is it poison and then my boys? Yeah, there you go. All right. Yeah, but I learned that like yesterday, which is why I even said clinking glasses. That was brought to you by National Geographic. That's right. Well, now I'm just imagining NYU beating Notre Dame.
Starting point is 00:18:36 And it's making- It wouldn't have mattered. They could have lost to anybody. They literally do not care. They only have a football team and you've still got them in the brackets. Can we unpack this Notre Dame thing for 30 more seconds? Sure. If Notre Dame would have lost to somebody else, let me pull up their schedule real quick.
Starting point is 00:18:55 Do you think Notre Dame, because we haven't talked about Notre Dame. Actually, wait, could Producer River ask his question right now? Because he asked me this the other night and. Yes, but let me ask you this one first. Go ahead. Because it's both. Because Producer River's got a great question. But we have not even answered this question yet.
Starting point is 00:19:18 We've talked about all these disaster scenarios. But is Notre Dame in the playoff if they lose again? No. Okay. Now do you think Notre Dame would be in the playoff if they lost to Louisville and USC? And they still beat Texas A&M? I think there's a better chance. Okay, so we do think that losing to NIU, I don't know why I keep saying NIU, and that's NIU, is going to hurt them if they lose again more than otherwise. Cause I'm wondering if the NIU loss is interchangeable
Starting point is 00:19:56 because it means so little at the moment. Okay, River, ask your question, come on on. What's up guys? What's up, River? All right, so Ari, you look at the schedule, Notre Dame here. They play Northern Illinois in week two, right? Play Virginia in week 12. Let's swap these two games in the schedule, put Virginia week two, say Notre Dame wins
Starting point is 00:20:19 34-10, but the same exact scenario happens in the Northern Illinois game in week 12. Does that make a difference in any kind of ranking? This is such a good question because I think it would. I think it would make a huge difference. It's always been what have you done for me lately? And there's a big difference in September 7th and November 16th. Yeah, no, I'm with you. Now the question in my opinion,
Starting point is 00:20:45 cause I think that we all agree that it would be different. Look at his Vols Cup everyone. Hey. Check her board baby. He's a little nervous for the weekend guys. Andy, River. Yes, I think that they would be ranked lower than I think that they might even be ranked outside
Starting point is 00:21:02 of the top 12 if it happened, right? Well, right. Cause the committee would be like, oh my God, we just lost them. We all would be, oh my God, let's be honest. It wouldn't just be the committee, we'd all be freaking out. We'd be live immediately, that would be our entire show.
Starting point is 00:21:14 Yeah. But the question I think really is, if the loss happened in reverse this weekend instead of in September, if at the end of the season, Notre Dame would not be in the playoff as a result of it. I think that the most recent ranking would be different. I don't know if it's still going to play off would be the different and that's the most important thing. Yeah, I think as long as it's not right at the very end, it's probably okay. It's probably okay. I mean, you can go back to the BCS.
Starting point is 00:21:46 Now, this is a different scenario because obviously you're playing a really good team. But like go back to the BCS era, 2003, Oklahoma loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game and still makes the BCS Championship Game. championship game like. There's precedent. For late loss is not affecting you, but. I do think that one, because it would be so shocking, would be viewed differently in in a later week than and then the other. The other part of that is would Notre Dame actually lose that game at this point in the season because they've obviously evolved as a team so you know we just got done having a discussion
Starting point is 00:22:26 about whether or not the committee will just do whatever they want. They're human beings. They watch the games. And like, for instance, you and I perceive South Carolina to be playing very well right now. Correct.
Starting point is 00:22:37 And I think that South Carolina's resume with their three losses is not very good. But I think we both would agree that if one of the teams that is currently in the SEC championship race and in the playoff race had to play South Carolina on Saturday, they'd probably be shitting their pants, right? Like, I think the committee sees that. So as they are formulating their rankings and making their decisions, I do think that it is important to be peaking at the right time, because peeking at the right time is part of the human bias that we make when ranking these teams. Like I think South Carolina is better
Starting point is 00:23:12 than Notre Dame right now. When we get into our disaster scenarios and that eight-way SEC tie, I think that's where you're peeking at the right time. Like the ones that make it are gonna be the ones that are peeking at the right time probably. Right, right. Because it's not the cumulative resume though it are going to be the ones that are peaking at the right time probably. Right, right. Because it's not the cumulative resume though it's supposed to be, but when you get into a battle or a debate, I do think that peaking at the right time is a eye test thing. And an eye test thing, I think matters a hell of a lot more in the rankings and the decisions that we arrive upon, then people think. I think it means I think it matters a lot. I think looking good, playing good, feeling good
Starting point is 00:23:48 is an important aspect of this because you're trying to create the most competitive in the most interesting playoff field. And, you know, do you think Notre Dame and want to play South Carolina this week? No. But do you think we'd be asking that if South Carolina's losses happened two out of the last three weeks instead of a while ago? Right. Probably not. We'd be like, yeah, Notre Dame's gonna be fine. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:10 All right. Let's talk about a guy who needs to peak this week. Carson Beck. Things have not gone well for Carson of late. He has had interception issues. He has had holding the ball too long issues and part of it, I think, is not necessarily all him. I think Georgia lacks the explosive weapons on offense that they've had in previous years, but he goes into this game against Tennessee, which is a very, very good defense, has an excellent pass rush, pretty similar in profile to what he just played against Ole Miss. And he's got to have one of his better games. We talked about Nico Amaleava and his situation earlier, but
Starting point is 00:24:51 I'm looking at this independently because remember, when we picked the game on Monday, one thing I said is just take the under because I'm not sure either of these off, it's going to be very good. Carson Beck has got to be better than he has been. For Georgia to win this game. Let's let's look at his prize picks number this week. Prize picks best daily fantasy game in America. Use the code staples play $5 get $50 instantly. So his number this week at prize picks is 261 and a half yards for passing. You decide if you if it's gonna be less than that or more than that. That's how you pick that square.
Starting point is 00:25:26 You pick at least two squares. The more squares you pick the higher the potential payout. So I don't think Carson Beck needs to have more than 261 and a half passing yards to win this game. I think if he's if he even gets near this number, George is in pretty good shape because I think this game is going to be a slog. Yeah, I'm with you because Tennessee's offense isn't really explosive, so I do think that they could win a game 1714
Starting point is 00:25:55 where he throws for 160 yards. Like I'm with you 100% on that front. Now focusing the only way I would say the only way this goes more than, and we talked about this last week, Ole Miss is if they get roped into a shootout, like suddenly Tennessee is hitting those deep balls that they have not been able to connect on all season. But I think if that were to happen, if Tennessee's offense is clicking the way Ole Miss's offense was clicking last week, I think it's the same game as last week.
Starting point is 00:26:23 I think more likely George's defense probably terrorizes Tennessee's offense and we see the defense is just getting thrown back on the field. Do you think that Georgia could exist in a shootout right now? Like would you, like do you think that that could against Tennessee's defense? Like I don't, if Carson, you know, you did an interesting
Starting point is 00:26:43 thought on one of the prize picks videos last week I think of like it's actually maybe a bad sign if you it was it was Carson Beck. It was the same man. Yeah And you know he threw for 186 yards against Ole Miss and I don't recall, you know, we were both there Do you recall a single explosive pass play in that entire game? I don't recall, you know, we were both there. Do you recall a single explosive pass play in that entire game? I don't even remember. No, they're very much underneath and over,
Starting point is 00:27:10 you know, a lot of underneath and Ole Miss intentionally kept everything in front of them. It's kind of the way that Georgia has always defended teams like Tennessee and teams like Ole Miss where they keep everything in front of them. Now Ole Miss in this particular case was hitting underneath routes and turning them into bigger gains, which I don't think Georgia is capable of against Tennessee's defense and I'm not sure Tennessee's capable of against
Starting point is 00:27:36 Georgia's defense. So that's, I just think this is going to be an absolute grind. I don't have a lot of faith in George's run game, especially after seeing it up close and personal against an elite defensive line, which Tennessee also has it like Tennessee and Ole Miss is defensive profiles are very similar. They don't run the same defense,
Starting point is 00:27:58 but personnel wise it feels very similar. Absolutely, and I have a hard time. Like for me, the play here is less than. I think so too. I don't. I think that there's there's two scenarios. There's there's three scenarios in this game. One of them actually is a positive for Georgia where it's
Starting point is 00:28:18 still less than because I think it's a it's a slog of a game. Both teams just try to control it on the ground or you know, take a lead and suck possessions out of the game and control clock. So in that case, George is winning a low scoring game. He's probably not throwing enough to get to 261 and a half. So that's one another is they just get dominated. He doesn't throw he doesn't play very well. It's less than the more than is if Tennessee scores some and George has got to play catch up, which is you saw in the Florida game, you know, the Florida game, he threw three interceptions.
Starting point is 00:28:54 He threw for 300 yards, but a lot of that was having to throw their way back because Florida was still in the game. I mean, that game was tied in the fourth quarter. Yeah, yeah. Who do you think is a better pass rush? Tennessee or only Tennessee does. Like, isn't that a scary proposition? Like, I can't believe that people are just assuming that George is going to win this game. There are a lot of those. Because people are going back to two years ago and saying, well, you guys all said Tennessee would win two years ago and Georgia just demolished them. Well, that was a Georgia team
Starting point is 00:29:34 that won the national championship. And last I checked, Brock Bowers is not coming back to run routes. Todd Monk is not coming back to call plays. And Stetson Bennett is not coming back to throw the ball. Yeah. And Tennessee's defense is better than it was in 2022. Yeah. I think that it helps that it's at home. It does. And here's another interesting stat. This is Arthur emailed me this one and pointed
Starting point is 00:30:03 this out and I thought it was really interesting. Georgia is going to have played Georgia currently has played more top 25 opponents on the road than it has played home games. So their schedule has been obscenely hard. It may be that yes, being at home makes a huge difference. Yeah. And also to playing Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas in a, and a pretty spunky Auburn team at times in a six week period, just caught up with them. You know, like that's the thing about college football too. It's like you, you jumped to all these conclusions and sometimes what you get from a week to
Starting point is 00:30:40 week situation is just not the same thing, you know? And you know, you'll, you'll see Georgia come out and just be monsters on Saturday and be like, holy crap, where the hell was this, you know, last week, but I'm losing faith in that. Their offense doesn't have to be the monster, like, against Texas, it wasn't the defense was. And that's good enough. So if the Georgia defense does what it did against Texas, and this goes back to the Carson Beck, less than thing. If the Georgia defense does what it did against Texas, Georgia can win the game comfortably without the offense being particularly great. Yep. Yep.
Starting point is 00:31:18 But I think we're both in agreement here on what they, what, what to do on price picks. Yes. I feel like less than is the play here just because of the quality of Tennessee's defense and the way the game probably has to go for Georgia to win it. So in terms of if I'm if I'm strategizing if I come with a game plan, you know, I'm not planning to come out and throw the ball over the yard. Now look if Georgia starts hitting deep balls,
Starting point is 00:31:45 then by all means, you know, we're wrong, but I just, we haven't seen it all season. So I don't expect to see it against one of the better defenses that they've played. Yeah, yeah. All right, Ari, let us get into these disaster scenarios because we have gotten a bunch from a bunch of different fans. The Wendy's
Starting point is 00:32:05 saucy disaster scenarios. You can decide which is the spicy ghost pepper of these disaster scenarios. And let actually let me ask you this and we'll rope in one of our other sponsors on this one, Ari. What what makes people happier? Is it their team doing well or their rival having its guts ripped out? I think their team doing well probably always trumps the rival. But is the rival getting the guts ripped out? Is that the best consolation prize?
Starting point is 00:32:41 Oh, without question. And that's the only sport that people care to that level. Right, right. Because it like in basketball, you just want your team to win Duke in North Carolina. The Duke fans aren't if North Carolina then loses that like when North Carolina knocked Duke out of the final four and that was coach K's last game. The Duke fans weren't. Consoled by North Carolina losing the national championship game. But that's what I'm so, we're gonna talk about WonderFan. And whenever we talk about WonderFan,
Starting point is 00:33:16 I just think about fandom and kind of the psychological aspects of fandom. We are gonna have some scenarios here where there may be some fan bases that just get to taste those delicious tears of their arrival. And it might make their season better because they didn't get what they wanted from their team, but they might be able to just drink the tears of arrival. But let's tell you about WonderFan. It's the first of its kind college football stadium rewards app where fans earn real rewards simply by cheering for their favorite team. All you need to do is head to the app store, download the app, check in once you're at the game of the tailgate, and let your
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Starting point is 00:34:36 And start being paid for your fan loyalty. Wunderfan pays to be a fan. All right, all right. Time for scenarios. And we'll start with the one that has been lobbed at us the most. Our guy Matt tweeted at us last night about it. The biggest disaster scenario for the SEC is obviously
Starting point is 00:34:57 if Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Missouri, and Ole Miss all finished the league with a six and two record, absolute disaster, hilarious, but disaster, Missouri, and Ole Miss all finished the league with a six and two record. Absolute disaster, hilarious, but disaster. That's hilarious. So let us go to Jake on Reddit, the CFB sub Reddit, and Jake's been charting this. So Texas beat Florida last week, Tennessee beat Mississippi State, Ole Miss beat Georgia,
Starting point is 00:35:23 Alabama beat LSU, and Missouri beat Oklahoma in the weirdest possible outcome. If you watch that game, here's what has to happen this week to keep the eight teams, six and two tie alive. You ready Ari? Yep. Texas must beat Arkansas. There's an ESPN win. Probability on that is 85.9%.
Starting point is 00:35:46 Georgia must beat Tennessee. LSU must beat Florida. Now, as we keep going through these games, the probability of this happening goes down. Missouri, which is a 13.5 point underdog, must beat South Carolina on the road. That one, there's a 30.2% chance of happening according to ESPN. And so with those probabilities, there's a 9.2% chance. So about a one in 10 chance that the six into eight way tie dream may be alive by the end of the weekend. Oh my God, if it happened, it would be incredible. Yeah, I mean, this is the result of not having a super team in the league this year. This is what happens.
Starting point is 00:36:29 And, you know, there are two ways to look at this. One is that everybody in the sec, uh, is average and you're not really getting a sense of it because they're playing each other and strictly each other, or that everybody in the sec that's in this picture right now has a really, really good football team and they're beating up on each other and that everybody in the SEC that's in this picture right now has a really, really good football team, and they're beating up on each other. And there's real no way to quantify that outside of what we're going to get eventually when these teams face up with other teams from other
Starting point is 00:36:53 conferences in the playoff. But like there's no clearly superior team. Like if I asked you right now, who's the best team in the SEC? Do you have a definitive answer? Like last year, somebody would just be like, Georgia, Alabama. Okay. Yeah. Right. You really went on a limb there. Like, what limb do we go out on on this? Yeah. If I said Texas right now, you would throw Texas a schedule at me and say, Oh, who's their best one? And I'd be like, I guess Vanderbilt. If I said Georgia, you'd be like, well, they've lost two already and you saw him get dominated by Ole Miss. If I said, you know, if I said Alabama, like they lost to Vanderbilt for God's sake, like, yeah, and the most important thing is that there are teams in the conference that are six and three that I think could beat all the teams that
Starting point is 00:37:37 are in that race. South Carolina was another interesting fact about this one, for the eight team tie to happen, you'd need Kentucky to beat Texas. Can you even imagine if Kentucky beat Texas next week? What would happen? Sorry, I missed that. For this to happen, you'd need Kentucky to beat Texas because you need Texas to be six and two and then beat Texas A and M in that game. Yeah, well, Kentucky does have an impressive SEC win this year. They have one win.
Starting point is 00:38:11 They do, they beat Ole Miss. Yeah. They have one win in the SEC. It's their only win in the SEC. And they made it count, I'll give them that. So I think that there are certain teams that are peaking and certain teams that are kind of, you know, treading water.
Starting point is 00:38:30 John says dominated is a strong word regarding the Ole Miss Georgia game. Did you watch the game? It's not a strong word, it's an appropriate word. That's exactly what happened. Yeah. You have, as a football fan, guys, I just, I'm begging you. You gotta just see more than just the final score.
Starting point is 00:38:49 Like just watch the games. Like come on. Yeah. Did, when did Georgia, when was it clear that Georgia had zero percent chance to win? Like early in the third quarter? Yes. Yeah. When, when Ole Miss finally scored a touchdown after scoring all those field goals.
Starting point is 00:39:04 When Juswell. When they scored that touchdown and went for two. Yeah. Because it was like, okay, if they just keep kicking field goals, Georgia has a chance to get back in this thing. But the second they scored a touchdown, you're like, forget it. Nevermind. Jordan's not scoring and this is over. And yes, Georgia did dominate Texas in a very similar way where the score wasn't a crazy look twice blowout, but Texas in my opinion, though, no chance in that game, no chance to win the game. Even when they got the biggest break in terms of calls and trash throwing that you could get, they still did not win.
Starting point is 00:39:33 So yeah, and I'm not saying that we're not saying Georgia stinks. We're just don't don't nitpick with the word. Their appropriate words are using. Yeah, John, I saw the entire game. It wasn't over until the fourth. We came back for 28 down. So whatever you came back from 28 down against Alabama, or their appropriate words were using. Yeah, John, I saw the entire game. It wasn't over until the fourth. We came back for 28 down, so whatever. You came back from 28 down against Alabama.
Starting point is 00:39:49 Alabama's defense is not as good as Ole Miss' defense. Like, you got dominated. Live with it. Just beat Tennessee, and you don't have to worry about it. Yeah. All right, let's go to Ryan's disaster scenario. And Ryan actually sent this to us last night during the show as we were signing off, and I felt awful about it. So we didn't get a chance to actually sent this to us last night during the show
Starting point is 00:40:05 as we were signing off and I felt awful about it. So we didn't get a chance to show it on the show last night, but we're showing it now. I hope he's here. I hope he's here. I yeah, hopefully I know he may be at work right now. So hopefully, you know, he sees it on demand if nothing else. But Ryan says South Carolina beats Clemson, but either Miami loses another one or SMU loses two and Clemson makes the ACC title game. Clemson wins and makes the college football playoff. Texas A&M wins out and makes the college football playoff. South Carolina with wins against both stays home. Like how much would that suck if you're the Gamecocks to watch all of that unfold? Yeah, I'm with them and like it could potentially happen. And the thing that stinks about it is, is that, you know, we always say
Starting point is 00:40:48 that this is all settled on the field. And now that there are automatic bids for winning your conference, it certainly is. But, you know, hopefully like I actually don't know how to say this without coming across as an asshole, but like I'm, I'm okay with that because I still want the games to matter. Like at a certain point, if you lose three times, it has to, your, their consequences. Should have beaten LSU.
Starting point is 00:41:12 You should have showed a pulse against Ole Miss. You could have beaten Alabama and Alabama. Yeah. Their losses are against three really, or two really good teams and one team that, you know, if you don't show up or, you know, things go off the rails a little bit, they can beat you. Right. Like LSU was still in the picture here. And South Carolina probably still like, I know they lost the lower sellers at the end of the first half. They probably still should have won that game. And I know, I know about
Starting point is 00:41:39 the interception that got called back. I know you still should have won the game. Yeah. And also Clemson playing South Carolina, like his Clemson's only hope right now of getting into the playoff, I think is to win the ACC, right? Can we say that? Oh yeah. Yeah. I think we definitely say that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:02 So when Clemson plays South Carolina, they could bench their entire team and it doesn't matter. Like they don't, they could play their fourth string, just play for, you know, like, and I'm not saying that they would, but that game has zero impact on Clemson season. So from that standpoint, maybe psychologically, I would think that's, I mean, I think that South Carolina is better anyway, even if Clemson plays full go. But I think Clemson might not have an edge because it's going to be so hyper-focused on what's happening around it in the ACC. And I am on high alert, Andy. Because we are in mid-November and we have two and three games left,
Starting point is 00:42:38 depending on the team. I'm not convinced. I put Clemson back on the list for alive in the ACC race because I am not 100% convinced that we're not going to get some sort of grab ass for Miami and SMU at some point. You absolutely could like Miami could go to Syracuse on the last day of the season and lose and then Clemson's it. I mean, it's entirely possible. So, and remember Clemson finishes its ACC schedule this week. So Clemson beats Pitt, they're locked in in the ACC at seven and one. Yeah, and I think that South Carolina
Starting point is 00:43:16 is just out no matter what, right? Like they're done at this point. Yeah, I mean, there would have to be so much chaos. It would take multiple like Texas losing to Arkansas and Kentucky Texas A&M losing to Auburn and then Texas like then all of a sudden Maybe you get it back in but like I don't there's nothing in the Big Ten that would cause those teams to be three loss So I just I don't see I don't see how they come. I think that eventually three lost teams like South Carolina will make the field. Right. Doesn't happen in a year when we're making jokes about eight teams finishing tied for second place in the SEC. You mean isn't at large. Yeah. Right. Yeah. I think there will be years in this system where a three lost team can conceivably make the field there There have been, I think I saw Heather Dinnitch said
Starting point is 00:44:07 that 10 times in the seven year, 14 field era, at 10 and three teams. What did I say? I'm sorry, I think I'm having a stroke. What did I say? I got you seven times in the 10 years of the 14 years of the 14 era teams with three losses finished in the top 12 of the final poll. So like there are, there's going to be openings for that.
Starting point is 00:44:34 I just think that South Carolina picked the wrong year. Exactly. I think this record. Yeah. I think you're right. All right. Let me, uh, let me throw another, this is one of my own concoctions of a disaster scenario, Ari.
Starting point is 00:44:49 This is an Ohio State one, and it's a relatively simple one, but it is the one that would cause probably the most anguish that I can possibly imagine of any of these. Ohio State loses to Indiana. Producer, we don't need the South Carolina Clemson graphic up there on the screen anymore.
Starting point is 00:45:10 Ohio State loses to Indiana. Ohio State loses to Michigan. Ohio State misses the CFP. Would Ryan Day be fired if that happened? I think he would just take another job somewhere. I think that he would meet with Ross Bjork and be like, don't worry, I'm not going to make you fire me. I'll go somewhere else. Yeah, like I don't, I'm not a big fire Ryan Day person because I think he does a good job in most aspects of his coaching situation, but I think if that were to happen, that would be it.
Starting point is 00:45:53 Yeah, yeah, that would be it. I think it's highly far fetched because I don't think Michigan can beat them. Indiana being able to beat Ohio State. I don't think that's completely out of their own possibility. And I think Ohio State could lose to Indiana, still get in and things be okay. Absolutely. That's paramount for Ohio State right now and I know that they want a Big Ten Championship because it's been a long time since they've gotten one. They have to beat Michigan this year. Like I don't think... Yes. I honestly, if they lose to Michigan and make the playoff, I still don't know what how people are feeling about it. You know what I mean? They cannot lose to Michigan this year. So, but like that's not much of a disaster scenario. That's just a team crapping its pants like
Starting point is 00:46:30 that would. It's a disaster for Ohio State. That's the thing. It doesn't have to be a disaster for the whole league or for the system itself. It can just be a disaster for the team. But then like just losing to A&M and missing the playoff is the Texas disaster, right? Well, that's the next one I have. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:48 That's the next one I have. But here's the thing. That one cuts both ways. So let's talk about that one. Texas loses one of the next two games, either Arkansas or Kentucky. And then that sets, and then Texas A&M beats Auburn. So both of those teams go into the SEC Championship game or
Starting point is 00:47:10 not the SEC. Why is it both of these go into the Texas Texas A&M game with two losses now Texas A&M would have one fewer conference loss, but I don't think that matters in this case. The idea of an elimination situation where the winner of this game eliminates the other is the most delicious, saucy, like this is this is the spicy garlic parm. This is savory and spicy all at the same time. I cannot wait like that's what I want that game to be. Texas and Texas A&M have not played since 2011.
Starting point is 00:47:51 All they've done is snipe at one another. They were both babies about it when they were in different conferences and wouldn't play each other. If they get into a game where the loser is definitely out of the playoff and the winner is definitely in, it will be the greatest thing ever. Yeah. Well, let's let me unpack that. So if you're saying Texas loses one more time and then they play
Starting point is 00:48:19 because there's a scenario where Texas loses that game and gets in, they keep winning. No, but I think if Texas loses another where Texas loses that game and gets they keep winning. No, but I think if Texas loses another game before A and M and then beats A and M, they would still still got a problem to win the
Starting point is 00:48:35 SEC. They would still have a problem. I don't know if there's a you know what the actual disaster scenario here is Andy is if A and M beats one loss, TexasM beats one loss Texas, one loss Texas is thrown into the pot with everybody else. A&M goes to the SEC championship game and then Texas loses the playoff because they lost the tiebreaker because their schedule sucks. That's the disaster because like Texas loses again, I think Texas would drop out of the top 10.
Starting point is 00:49:02 Like they don't have any wins and they'd have two losses at that point. If they lost to a bad team, they would be out of the picture completely, I think, at that point, unless they, and then they would have to play their way back into the playoff by beating A&M and then winning the SEC. So like, I think that the bigger disaster scenario is Texas loses the only game that it can't on its schedule, which is the A&M game, which is a heated rivalry on the road, and then there are still 10 game, which is a heated rivalry on the road. And then there's still 10 and two feel like they have a
Starting point is 00:49:27 chance to get in and then don't. And then have the wrong pull out from under. Oh, yeah. Actually you're right about this because here, here's, here's that. Here's how that unfolds. So imagine this, Texas A&M beats Texas. Texas finishes the regular season 10 and two.
Starting point is 00:49:44 Texas A&M finishes regular season 10 and two. Texas A&M winning this game puts Texas A&M beats Texas. Texas finishes the regular season 10-2. Texas A&M finishes regular season 10-2. Texas A&M winning this game puts Texas A&M in the SEC Championship game. We know that to be true. Texas then has to spend a week watching Texas A&M get ready to go play for the SEC Championship. They'll watch Texas A&M play for for the SEC championship possibly win it. And if they do, then they may have probably the two seed in the playoff at that point. Yeah. And then Texas has to sit there and sweat on Sunday at 11 a.m. Central Time. After the championship games and they've got the ESPN's got the camera. And you know, if you're like a third, you know, eighth tier sideline reporter, you know, you're not getting in and that would Florida State said last year. So let me raise the stakes even more Andy. Let me you want to keep want to keep going down this rabbit hole. I'll raise them. Yeah, let's go. Texas enters the game with one loss. A&M has two losses. A&M wins. A&M then goes on to the SEC championship game, plays Alabama and
Starting point is 00:50:46 loses. And then there's a head-to-head discussion at the end of the year between a three-loss A&M team and a two-loss Texas team for the final SEC spot, and A&M gets chosen over them because they won that. And Notre Dame also gets chosen because they have a win at Kyle Field and Texas doesn't. Oh my god. And then Texas is out. And not only does Texas out with a better record, but Texas is out to A&M because they were chosen over them. Because I don't think that we are in an era where, like I was complaining about earlier in the show, that third loss for A&M might not be the eliminating factor. If you are down to two teams for one spot and those two teams played each other, I really do believe that you should take the team that beat
Starting point is 00:51:25 the other one. Yes, three lost Texas A and M getting in over two lost Texas head to head. Wow be a head to head loss in a game and then a head to head loss in a debate between committee members over who's better that that is you're right. That is probably every team's worst nightmare, but especially Texas's because losing the game and then losing the boardroom debate is, that's the ultimate insult to injury.
Starting point is 00:51:57 You have to also peel back the psychology of the rivalry. Like Texas fans feel like they are better than A&M fans. So like losing to A&M and then losing that debate to A&M strikes right into the sore of the entire inferior inferiority complex that it makes this rivalry so crazy. This is insane. You're right. Okay, so like Texas fans say things like, I don't care about A&M. I don't they're not worthy of me thinking about them. Like, like that. That's what they think and say. Yeah, that'd be insane. Okay, go ahead. Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you. But no, no, no, that's fine. Because
Starting point is 00:52:38 you're right. This is a lot better than than rooting for the the winning in. They're both they both enter the game with two losses scenario that this is a crazier situation i think than that one yeah and like we're talking about saucy disaster scenarios um i think there's a difference between just losing and blowing it like in the ohio state scenario and you losing a game but still being worthy to be in and then circumstances of other games that you didn't play in or the reason you didn't win or you get in.
Starting point is 00:53:10 Rasta man, A&M isn't even our rival. We think very little of, well guess what? You're going to be thinking an awful lot about them the next few weeks. You know what a lot of Texas fans say Andy? Like I'm like, like if I come across a Texas fan and I come across them all the time, like my wife went to A&M and her entire friend group is A&M and Texas people. Like if I ask, and like the Texas fans and A&M fans are very passionate about their given teams.
Starting point is 00:53:36 But if you ask a Texas fan, like, are you going, cause I always ask, are you gonna go to the game? Cause like, who wouldn't, like I would wanna go if I were a Texas fan, they always go, no, we don't go to college station. Like that's what people say, like, or I'm not gonna go there. That's like, you're gonna get some sort of spores on them.
Starting point is 00:53:53 It's like beneath them to go to college station, to go watch a game there. Like, you know what that is? That's how they are. That's the most arrogant way of saying we can't afford the tickets. Well, these people can, I promise you. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:07 I know, but I really do think that there is a superiority feeling that like they wouldn't degrade themselves to go to College Station, which I think is stupid. And if I were an A&M person, they would hate them for that, you know? Yeah. Come on.
Starting point is 00:54:23 You get some fuego tacos. Let's go. Who wouldn't want to go? I would. I mean, yeah, I think the whole point of doing it. Here's another Ohio State scenario and this one comes from John in Spain. So this is the way John lays it out. Ohio State loses to Indiana.
Starting point is 00:54:41 Oregon loses a fluky rivalry game to Washington. Penn State then beats Indiana in the Big Ten Championship game and you're wondering, you may be wondering, okay, how does that happen? So the way that happens is if Oregon were to lose to Washington, the way they would decide who plays for the Big Ten Championship, because it would be Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all tied. Well, Indiana would be in because they'd be undefeated, but Oregon and Penn State would be tied. So it'd be common opponents and Penn State be Washington and Oregon didn't. So that's why it would be Indiana, Penn State
Starting point is 00:55:14 in the Big Ten Championship game in this scenario. So your at larges from the Big Ten would be Oregon and Indiana, Penn State would be your Big Ten champ. Okay, here's more of the scenario. Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss all went out. Texas A&M beats Tennessee in the championship game. So A&M's end, that makes your at-large is Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Starting point is 00:55:38 Notre Dame wins out. That makes Notre Dame an at-large. Undefeated BYU then loses the championship game in the big 12 in a squeaker really close overtime maybe controversial call Ohio state goes from rank number two right now to completely out of the playoff and as John says Columbus burns and I think that that like I still think that that would be more of a disaster scenario for Ohio State. I think, but you know, like you always talk about like
Starting point is 00:56:13 wonder fan and thinking about fan psychology, like what would you rather have happen? But I guess you're out in both. So you would rather beat Michigan and be out. But that I think that one would sting more because, or sting differently because like a bunch of crazy things would have to happen around your shoulder. That's like a Rube Goldberg invention of the
Starting point is 00:56:32 to cause you pain. Like you assume at some point, like the little wire is not going to get snapped and the contraption falls apart and you're okay. I think, do you ever play mousetrap when you were a kid? Oh yeah, my breathing? Yeah. I didn't put it together though, believe it or not.
Starting point is 00:56:51 I believe it. So yeah, you're hoping the boot doesn't kick the thing that knocks the cage down. Yeah. This would be all of those things happen in perfect order to screw you. That would be horrific. You know what that is? That's the difference between emotional pain and physical pain. Yes. They're both hurt really bad. Which one do you want? Yeah. Scott handy to someone here. Staff not know how to spell losses. I believe that was a copy and paste from the original email. So sorry about that.
Starting point is 00:57:27 Our copy editing needs to needs to get picked up here. So all right. Another disaster scenario, and this is one for an entire conference and I had not thought about this one until Clay sent it to me. Imagine Miami suffers another loss. SMU slips up and loses a game, and Clemson gets in and wins the ACC Championship but gets beaten by South Carolina, which we talked about before. But here's the added twist to this. Army beats Notre Dame and finishes this season undefeated and wins the American Athletic Conference. Boise State continues to win and wins the Mountain West as a 12-1 champion.
Starting point is 00:58:06 Clay is a lifelong Clemson fan and a recent alum. He says this would be a disaster for the ACC because there is a chance that ACC champ Clemson in that scenario is the sixth highest ranked conference champ and is not in the top 12. I think that that on paper you could get there that would never happen. That's the least likely I think army beating Notre Dame is highly unlikely and I realized that a lot of our saying even if all of that I still think that if all of those things happened Clemson would be firmly into the playoff though. I don't think so. You don't? No. You're gonna tell the troops that they're not, the undefeated troops that they're not in
Starting point is 00:58:55 over a nine and three Clemson, they just lost to South Carolina? I think if you cut and pasted that scenario. Or a 10 and three, I guess I'd say. That would be a disaster scenario for a team in the SEC that's 10 and two that thinks they're going. Like, I think that Clemson would go to the playoff. I think if you want to power conference.
Starting point is 00:59:11 Okay, okay. But how? Who gets left out for them? I don't know. Georgia? I think like, take the crap out of them. So let's just keep going down the rabbit hole. God, this is fun.
Starting point is 00:59:24 If you had that scenario, Army's in, Boise State beat UNLV and is in. And then Texas is 10 and 2 at the end of the year with no quality wins. Who has a more impressive resume? Texas or Clemson in that scenario? Well, remember, George is not even making it in this scenario. Oh no, I'm sorry, that was the, I'm mixing up my scenarios.
Starting point is 00:59:53 So- There's a lot of scenarios, yeah. Yeah, Clay didn't pick SEC teams in this one. But there's a possibility that Georgia is kind of near the bottom of this. Clemson's not ranked higher than Georgia. Yeah, I guess if they were not a chance ahead with Georgia. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:00:15 I think that they would get in over the fourth team. But they're already too far down. Cause remember, Army's in, Boise State's in, They're already too far down. Because remember. Armies in Boise States in now Notre Dame's out so that helps that opens up a spot. You know what else could happen there? Hmm is that? Uh Boise would be left out. As the as the sixth highest ranked conference champ, but I don't think so because they're already number 11. You are they going to drop them now? Or I guess they're sorry, they're number 13.
Starting point is 01:00:49 They're just going to drop them now? Andy, the committee will do whatever they want. I don't think that like where they are. Yeah, they would. I don't know. And they'd be like, we think Clemson's better. Like what? And then what are you going to say? Okay. That's what they do. They do it all the time. They did it on Tuesday. Okay. All right. But I think that like if you had a undefeated army, a one loss Mountain West champion and a three loss ACC champion, I don't know if I'm, I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying I'm not convinced that the ACC would come in third place there.
Starting point is 01:01:21 We'll see. But they have no, they have no quality wins in that scenario, right? Unless they beat Miami at the end of the year or something. I don't know who they would be. Or they would be beating SMU. I'm eating Miami, which so isn't a big win in the committee's eyes right now, which would have a second loss by the way. That was part of the scenario that was laid out as a nightmare. I mean, I'll just either way.
Starting point is 01:01:42 That's a nightmare, but what's the spiciest one of these? I think it's yours. I think it's your Texas one that you came up with. Really lose on the field and in the boardroom. Yeah, I think losing to A&M twice. Would be really tough in a like two week period. Oh well, and the losing to A&M not on the field like that's that's what would really be the kick in the knackers,
Starting point is 01:02:06 to use your term. Knackers, yeah. The thing that would stink is that you would have a collection of people having to decide who is a more likely or better program at the moment to go win a championship and then choosing A&M. Who, by the way, in that scenario, also would have an additional loss. Yeah, right. three losses the same number wins but A&M would have another loss in the SEC Championship game in that scenario.
Starting point is 01:02:32 But also if A&M wins and then there is a head-to-head discussion and then they choose Texas could you imagine that? Could you imagine if Texas went to the playoff because they have one fewer loss? So it works both ways it's incredible. Could you imagine if Texas went to the playoff because they have one fewer loss? So it works both ways! It's incredible! Like, just that debate happening. Could you imagine A&M fans if they beat Texas on the field and then did not get to go to the playoff while Texas won? And Texas did. Imagine the inferiority complex.
Starting point is 01:03:02 Oh my god. Wow! It's even deeper than I imagined. I actually think that one is worse than Texas losing twice to A&M. I think A&M beating them on the field and losing to them in the board room would be the worst possible scenario for anybody in the entire sport. Rocky Top Tom has a pretty good one. The most Tennessee move ever. Beat Georgia in Athens and then lose to Vanderbilt.
Starting point is 01:03:30 Yeah. Oh, but again, here's another one we talked about. Here's another one we talked about involving Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia beats Tennessee on Saturday, gets knocked out of the playoff by losing to Georgia Tech. Like that would be misery. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:48 Oh my God, the A&M losing in the boardroom after winning on the field. It does, that's ghost pepper. I spent 20 minutes on it earlier. Matt, this needs to be an annual segment. The only time of year it would work too, because there's three weeks left, you kind of see the end of the record.
Starting point is 01:04:05 Matt, I think we can do one of these next week too. Yeah, let's do it again when we get more information, because it's gonna be crazy. Yeah. Whew. I already feel bad for A&M fans, and this isn't gonna happen. Yeah, right.
Starting point is 01:04:21 I feel bad for whichever one it is, A&M or Texas, because one way or the other in that scenario, one of them is just getting absolutely eviscerated by something that's not even happening on the field. But the essence of this scenario here, Andy, is that if Texas were to lose to A&M twice in the boardroom and on the field, at least they would be to blame for losing on the field.
Starting point is 01:04:45 The thing that makes disaster scenarios really burn, like burn like fire red deep, is if you take care of business on the field and that does not matter. Exactly, Florida State last year. Exactly. All right, let's look one more, one more. This is, this one's spot on on Justinian tweeted this at us.
Starting point is 01:05:07 Ohio State and Oregon end up on opposite sides of the bracket and are ready to meet in the national championship game. Does that game get automatically moved to a noon Eastern time slot on Monday, January 20th? Oh, producer River, do we have the Gus Johnson call from the Ohio State Purdue game? This is a we talked about the noon kickoffs. Big noon. We talked about what Joel Klatt said the complaints from the Ohio State fans. They're going to they're going to end the season with Producer River, let us hear Gus Johnson calling a touchdown in the Ohio State Purdue game. First down to the 25 for Purdue and a fumble on the play. Ohio State is there. They pick it up and run it in for a touchdown. Jack Sawyer.
Starting point is 01:05:59 Tough day for the boilers, tough season for the boilers. Ari, that's a cry for help. Yeah. tough day for the Boilers, tough season for the Boilers. Ari, that's a cry for help. Yeah. That's, I don't wanna hear any more than you wanna be watching this right now. Yeah, but I think that like my perception or the way I took that Andy was, God, Purdue, I'm so sorry.
Starting point is 01:06:18 Like that's what, like, I feel like, I think that's what that was. Like, it's just not going well for Purdue. I think so, but we're talking about about Gus Johnson who is Mr. High Energy like Gus going low energy is is a cry for help I'm pretty sure it's that that's him that's him holding the newspaper today's newspaper proof of life right there oh my god oh Stephen San Antonio Ari any updates on the mic issue? Yeah, I got the cord. I got the cord. We're good. I'm going to work on the stand, but
Starting point is 01:06:49 I need to figure out the right stand and how to put it together and stuff. But we're working on it. You don't even have to put that. See how yours has screws on the side. Here's my mic. Where do I understand? It's the same mic, Ari. It's not the same mic. You have this mic? I do. Same brand.
Starting point is 01:07:12 I have the XLR plug version of it. But my mic is not, well, we'll talk about it. I will help, I promise. Guys, big day tomorrow, big day tomorrow. It's a Dear Andy and Ari show. We need your questions. And as you see, you are amazing
Starting point is 01:07:32 coming up with these scenarios. So let's get some good questions here. You know where to find us, at Andy underscore Staples on social media, at Ari Wasserman on social media. Long questions can go to andystapleson3 at gmail.com. You guys were, last week's questions were probably the best batch we've ever had.
Starting point is 01:07:53 I have a feeling that you will be improving upon that this week. So you know where to find us, get those questions in. We will talk to you tomorrow and hopefully answer your questions.

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