Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Playoff Week 12 rankings REACTION

Episode Date: November 12, 2025

It's time to instantly react to this week's College Football Playoff Rankings. Will the top 5 remain unchanged? How much will BYU drop? Does Texas Tech get a bump? All these questions answered and MORE in tonight's College Football Playoff Instant Reaction, presented by Modelo.(0:00) On Tonight's Instant Reaction(0:47) Modelo(1:36) Intro(2:22) Top 25 Unveiled(4:35) Virginia at 19(5:56) Miami at 15(7:00) Vanderbilt 14, Utah 13(8:52) Top 10(9:53) Texas Tech jumps Ole Miss(10:58) Georgia at 5(11:15) Top 3 unchanged(13:43) ACC Mess(20:35) Discussing the rankings(32:09) ESPN's FPI Rankings(34:41) bball.notnothing.net(35:03) Big 12 Conference(38:06) Conclusion This show is sponsored by Modelo! Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut Butter and jelly. Macaroni and cheese. Modelo and college football. If you’re watching this, it means you live and breathe football. All season long. You know what that makes you? A Full-Time Fan. Which means you deserve a Modelo. Because football wouldn’t be the same without you. Modelo is the official beer sponsor of The College Football Playoff. Drink responsibly. Beer imported by Crown Imports, Chicago, IL Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtube.com/live/Iy83A5hwJA4 Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

There we go. On tonight, sorry, my studios falling apart of me. We were live the whole time. We were live the whole time. On tonight's, it's a reaction show, presented by Madelo. We unveiled the college football playoff rankings, the newest college football playoff rankings. And we see who is number one, probably still Ohio State. But could Texas A&M move up? We talked about it with Billy Lucci on today's show. Perhaps this is the week the Aggies make the move because Indiana, struggle with Penn State. Also, where does BYU drop? Where does Texas Tech rise? We'll find out now on our CFP rankings, instant reaction show. All right, our CFP ranking show is brought to you by Medello. Crack a Modelo anytime. If you're watching rankings, if you are getting ready for a game, if you are tailgating. In fact, we're going to be looking for full-time fans in Athens. before Texas plays at Georgia on Saturday. So kickoff means it's time for Medello.

Rankings means it's time for Madelo. It's always time for Madelo if you're a full-time fan. Let's hit it. Welcome to a special edition of Andy and Arion 3, presented by Madelo and BetMGM. It is a rankings night. It is Tuesday in November. That means Maxion, and that means college football,

playoff rankings and Ari, I just accidentally clicked on YouTube TV out of habit. Well, I'll do you one better. I went to get my iPad to play it, and it's at the Dallas Love Field Airport. I left it on the airplane, and I found out five minutes ago. So, Oh, no. You're on my Hulu app, and I have us covered, but I will have to recover my iPad tomorrow. Andy, I have been thinking about tonight a lot today. Okay. And, and And I'm wondering, because there weren't any earth-shattering losses or upsets on Saturday, the ACC, that said, did explode, but I'm very curious to see if we're going to see a very similar ranking with the teams that lost just down as Cincinnati is at 25 and South Florida is at 24, or if their eye test, they're going to be more reactionary to the eye test and previous ones are and are going to move teams around based on how they looked on Saturday. So I guess we'll see right now, but we're already started here. South Florida is the first G5 team in the rankings this year at number 24.

That's right. And big game for the Bulls this week. They're at Navy. So the logjam atop the American conference is pretty thick. And it's up to somebody to break it. And that is, USF actually, even though they lost to Memphis, USF feels like they have the best. shot here. Yeah, they seem like to see it number 23 by the, oh, by the way, in case you're wondering, my ESPN app that I was signed in on, sign me out. So do you, so what are you

doing? Okay. So we got it on my iPad. My TV, though, it's got a QR code for me. ESPN, if you're going to charge people for this, if you're going to hold YouTube TV hostage, make your app work. If I'm already signed in on my TV, don't make me sign in again. Pittsburgh. number 22. And their game does not matter this week, so we don't have to talk about them. Oh, yeah. Iowa number 21. Okay, back to Pitt.

Iowa's number 21, but get back to Pitt, in case you missed Monday on the Internet or Tuesday's show on our show, Pat Narduzzi said he doesn't care if they lose a hundred to nothing to Notre Dame because it's not an ACC game. As long as they went out. But I do think Iowa here at number 21 is interesting, Andy, because there's going to be some teams in the Big Ten that are relying on them. USC, for instance, playing a number 21 team. That's a team that's trying to, you know, really get into things. But what if USC beats them? Does that knock them out of the top 25?

I think there's a certain point where if everybody using them as a quality win, it's no longer a quality win, but I think if they win the game, it might drop out. That's your problem. Number 20. So that is Louisville drop five spots after its loss on Saturday night. And that was, see, we're wondering, okay, where's Virginia going to drop?

Where's Louisville is going to drop? And the answer is five spots each. Virginia is number 19. So they were right together before and they're right together again, but five spots lower. And somebody was antagonizing me in the chat before we started about, like, are you ready for Louisville to be ranked behind Miami?

And I just want people to understand, too, that that's a completely different thing because they have the same record now and Miami has a top 10 win to cancel it out. So like there's a Miami Louisville and my and Notre Dame are all kind of in that same boat. And you can decide how you want to order them. And the committee's decided they're going to order them, Notre Dame, Miami, and Louisville.

Miami beat Notre Dame, but also has a top 10 win that Notre Dame doesn't have, which is why it was upset. So like now, it's Michigan 18, USC 17. Both of those teams still alive for the college football playoff. Yes. It will be interesting. Are those the two lowest potential at-larges? I think so.

What's going to be interesting is when USC, Michigan, in Oregon are battling out for two of the final two spots. I think the Big Ten will get four as Georgia Tech checks in at number 16. And I think it's going to be between those three to take the last two spots. But I think that two of them will make it, potentially. I don't know. Maybe that's not guaranteed. I think if you get to 10 and two in the SEC or the Big Ten, you're going to be in.

Yeah. I don't know. I just don't think there's going to be enough enough. The question is, well, there'll be four 10 and two teams in the Big Ten. That's the thing. So Miami jumps up to 15. as a result of those ACC teams losing. And now they are more in striking distance,

which is what you said. So the possibility of an at-large Miami, now what would really help Miami is, is they're going to have to beat Pitt, obviously. But what if Pitt beat Notre Dame? I haven't been thinking about this. I think that Miami should want Notre Dame to beat everybody by 50 because the most important chessmen.

Because it'll pull them up. Miami got 10 and 2. last year and was left out because they didn't have any quality wins. And I think the thing that most people got obsessed with in last week's discussion is that they thought that I was saying that because they only beat Notre Dame head to head that they should be ahead of them. Just about head to head. It's about the quality win that they possess.

They need that win to continue to be quality. I think that Miami at 10 and 2 will get into the playoff field. I think that MGM has them at 7 to 1, 7 or 7 and 1 to make the field. I think that's a really good bet if you think they're going to win their final three games. And I think both will get it. So Vanderbilt's number 14, Andy, and Utah at number 13. And I would like to think at Utah at 13, because Utah is kind of landlocked here. Like, yeah, they need some stuff, a lot of stuff to happen to make the big 12 title game because they've lost to Texas Tech and they've lost to BYU.

It just, it feels like the committee just doesn't like Miami because I'd love to know, you know, resume-wise, why the two teams ranked directly in front of them are ranked ahead of them. well like vandy will be interesting i think vandy if they went out will make the playoffs so uh they they've got to play tennessee they've got kentucky this week which by the way kentucky looked as good as it's looked all year against florida last week and then they've got it tennessee so but how will find vanderbilt plays in a tougher conference there's no question i'm not going to go down that road their two losses are better than miami's two losses but they do not claim any real huge wins. They don't have a single top 25 wins,

so what's their claim? It feels like the community is. Right, because Missouri is kind of in that same boat as Iowa. Like if everybody claims you as a quality win, are you a quality win? Yeah. BYU at 12, Oklahoma at 11. So BYU drops five with the loss of Texas Tech, Oklahoma up one after the reshuffle. Yeah, I just, again, it feels like the.

committee is more concerned with who you lost to than who you beat for the first time in a while. Am I like getting that? Is that a weird vibe? Or it's like, it just usually who you beat really kind of carried the weight there. And it doesn't seem like it's doing it in these rankings. So I'm telling you, if we go to FPI, if we go to the FPI resume page, or if we go to the any of these like SB Plus type things, we're going to find, I think these teams in a similar order here. Texas at 10. Orne's back in the top 10, baby, right in time for their big trip.

And they'll either jump to five this week or they'll fall out and they'll be done. Yep. That's it. They're going to Georgia. If they beat Georgia, they're probably sitting, like I said, number five next week. If they lose to Georgia, they probably won't drop that much, but they're just not coming back up. Do you think BYU is too high? I don't think it matters because I think if BYU beats TCU,

beats Cincinnati, goes on to the Big 12 championship, and we'll see what happens when they play Texas Tech again. They're not going to make the playoff if they get their doors blown off by Texas Tech again. Yeah. Notre Dame at nine. Notre Dame goes up one, Oregon up one to eight. Mm-hmm. Was there any intrigue left now, or we're waiting to see if they,

I guess only Texas, we're Texanam in Indiana are, I think. Yeah. Does anything in the ranking stand out to you as annoying? Because I'm not fired up this week. Ole Miss dropped. No, I'm not, I'm not super fired up. And look, we said this. This doesn't always fire you up.

Like sometimes the results don't, okay, Texas Tech moves up two to six. I think that's where I had Texas Tech in the, in the projection. So I feel like pretty good about my projection. They hopped over them. A big 12 team hopped over a SEC team that won. Has that ever happened? Not that I can remember. I mean, I don't remember the week-to-week movings of the playoff for the last 10 years,

but that's a kind of a, that's a, Brent, your mark just fist pumped. Yeah, I think this is, this is tracking pretty much exactly with the projection I did on Saturday night. Maybe it's just because you're him. I don't know. I don't think so. Well, what I wrote in the introduction of that is I'm going to take the committee's advice.

instead of it being, here's what I think it should be or here's how I think they should vote, I'm just going to take what they showed me last week and extrapolate. And so Georgia number five. Yep, Georgia's number five. So I assume Alabama will be four and then we'll just see if Alabama's four.

So either Texas A&M will be three or Indiana will be three. That's really the only kind of pivot point there is left. And they're talking. And they're talking. Texas NM 3, so there will be no changes. Indiana will be two, Ohio State will be one. That'd be cool, but again. It would be.

But, you know, A&M, I think that we had a really good discussion with Billy Lucci on Tuesday show about it. I think that you could make a claim that A&M has a shot or has a resume or at least an argument to be number one or even number two. again, really all they're trying to do is get that first round by in the playoff, and they have enough good teams left in a tough enough path where they control their own destiny to achieving that one goal. So, you know, I don't want to get all, I just think it's, I'm good, I'm happy to see that Indiana is number two because I don't want a committee that is reactionary to every single week's games when it's supposed to be about the whole picture.

I want a committee that's mature. I don't want them to freak out on Twitter like we do. I don't want them to freak out at certain results and go, hey, this or that, I want them to remain focused on the whole picture. And if you thought that Indiana was better or earned the number two spot a week ago, I'm not sure that winning a thrilling game on the road at State College, even if it wasn't against a team that's playing that well, does anything to change your mind on that.

So, you know, reactionary is unpredictable, I think. Yeah, I like that you want the committee to be more mature than us. I do. That's a very fair way to look at it. There has to be adults in the room, and I'm not the adult in the room. Let's be honest. I don't think you are. You're more adult in Chicago.

No, definitely not. So the only difference between this and my projection is they have South Florida ranked and have South Florida. I put Tulane at 12, projecting Tulane to be the American champ. So the games you would get in this with this ranking, because they're projecting USF to be the American champion here. You get USF at Georgia in the first round. You would get Notre Dame at Oregon in the first round. Woo, that would be spicy. You would get Texas at Ole Miss, Miami at Texas Tech.

And that's interesting. Because they're projecting Miami is the ACC champ here as the highest ranked ACC. Let's talk about that. Because Miami's actually not in a great position to make the ACC title game. That doesn't mean they can't. but Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, Duke, all ahead of them in the ACC standings because they all only have one conference loss.

And it is entirely possible that we end up with two, one loss in the ACC teams playing for the ACC team in Miami shut out. The bracket that they present to you on television should mirror the reality of it. And Miami is not in their field right now. It's like they made a decision to punish them and they're now presenting a bracket that would show them as even though they're you know what i looked

it up today betmgm has uh miami is a 10 to one dog to win the acc this year so like think who's the who's the favorite i'm going i'm going to be bedmgm app right now i want to see i don't remember i'm guessing it's georgia tech it's got to be georgia tech um because they're they've got the best record and you know in and the cleanest path though they still have to they they play pittsburgh next week at home but and then they play Georgia. So the thing is Georgia, they can lose to Georgia that,

as Pat Narduzzi would say, does not affect them in the ACC race. Yeah. And of course, the odds also take into account who you have left on your schedule. So if you have a tough path of it, then you're going to have a tougher,

you know, or a better, more advantageous number. Okay, so yes, Georgia Tech is your favorite at plus 200. The second favorite, the only one really close to Georgia, to Tech. Is Duke at plus 275?

Shall we have a conversation about the Blue Devils? Yeah. We had that conversation on Saturday. We can do it again. My actual overall question to you is do you think that either the Big 12 or the ACC should be a two big league or do you think they should both be one bid leagues? Well, the ACC should probably be a one bid league. The thing is, it's going to be weird how the bid comes to be because you talked about Miami sitting there and hoping Notre Dame keeps winning, which we think Notre Dame will keep winning. Notre Dame is going to be favored in all of its other games. If they get past Pitt, they're playing Syracuse and Stanford.

They're not losing either of those games. So Notre Dame is probably 1 10 and 2. That will help Miami, we would think, draw Miami up. Miami may not make the ACC title game, but let me ask you this, sorry. I'm ready to make a declaration, so ask it to me. If Duke is 8 and 4 and then wins the ACC champion, championship game, and then is 9 and 4, will Duke be ranked ahead of the American champ and a potential 12 and 1 James Madison Sundelt champ?

I still think I would go, if I had to guess, I don't know, I would still guess the ACC champ would get in. I think the American champ would be ranked higher than the ACC champ for sure in that scenario. Yeah. And the ACC champ goes without saying they would certainly not be, you know, especially if the American champ is Tulane, which beat Duke head to head. What I think might be interesting in that scenario, and I believe this wholeheartedly. I think if Miami finishes the season 10 and 2, they will find a way into the playoff.

But that's what I was getting at. That's what I was getting at. That might be the way the ACC is a two-bid league. I think the ACC would love having two teams in. I think they would rather it be that Georgia Tech just wins out. and is in there and is an unassailable. Because the thing is, like, let's say Georgia Tech wins all of its remaining games in the regular season.

Georgia Tech could probably lose the ACC championship game and get it. If Georgia Tech wins out, including beat Georgia, they might get a buy. Like, Georgia Tech is situated. Once you beat Georgia, you become a different team. So, like, Georgia is like the... Well, we say this now. Georgia is playing Texas this weekend. Like, Georgia's got to beat Texas for that win to matter as much.

I think for that not to be an elimination game for Georgia. I think that logos are good for ORA. And even if Georgia were to lose to Texas, I think that the committee would take an ACC team more seriously having beaten them, regardless of whether they're 10 and 2 or 11 and 1. Now, here's the question that I have back to you. And I don't know if it even remains to be Duke. But let's say Georgia Tech, you know, gets to the ACC championship game

and they play Duke and Duke wins it, okay? And then Miami finishes 10 and 2. Would this be the first time in playoff history? It would have to be because it wouldn't have never happened in the 14th field where a team that did not win their power conference was ranked higher than the champion in the playoff seating. Well, no, it happened in the 14th playoff. When did it happen?

2016. 2016, Ohio State over Penn State. I should have known that. I was covering the team that did it. Yeah. No, well, yeah, the non-champ went in and the non-and-the-champ didn't even get in at all. So that would be, yeah. So, again, Ari, are you going to cry that Louisville is ranked below Miami?

No, because if you think that Louisville being ranked behind Miami mirrors the conversation that we had about Miami and Notre Dame last week, you were not listening. See, but I'm with pigs on this. This is a similar situation. Now, you're saying Miami has a better best win than Louisville. I don't know that it's much better because Louisville's best win is Miami. Yeah. And they're not that far apart.

So I actually think that like if Louisville were ranked ahead, I would be fine with that. The thing that bothered me last week was that Miami had a top 10 win and a head to head win over a team. There were eight spots behind. Yes. And I had the same problem as you. But I don't think that's the same thing that's happening here.

But you have an iron triangle here. Yeah. And you've got to rank one ahead of one and the other ahead of the other. And so this is this is the decision they've made. And I'm okay with that because if you did the who do you think would be favored against all these other teams, you'd have Notre Dame favored against more of them. I just the college football playoff stuff as you keep going into the weeks gets more

and more complicated because context expands and results expand. But if your takeaway, from last week's discussion about Miami was they beat them head to head and the discussion should be over. That's not at all. No, it has to be all other things equal. And it kind of was all other things equal last week. It's not all other things equal now. And it's not all other things equal with Miami and Louisville. So. Right. But if it came down. But again, I don't think I'd have them that far apart. But for those who want me consistent, let me be consistent. If Louisville is 10 and 2, and Miami is 10 and 2 at the end of the year,

and there's one spot left for one of those teams who would pick the team that won the game. Yeah. I still feel the same way, yeah. Nick in the chat says if Maya gets into a tier where they're being compared directly with Notre Dame, which is a good point because of the way they do the seating is they kind of go in groups of three, and then they move on to the next group, and they'll start with like a group of six. narrow it to three, and they'll put those three in order, and then they'll take the three that they kicked out, add another three in, and then figure out who the top three of that are.

This is kind of what I was trying to project last week, because if you look at Oklahoma and Texas, those are the Hurricanes enemies. You want Oklahoma and Texas both to lose this week when they're playing big game. You want them out, yeah. You want Alabama to beat Oklahoma, and you want Texas to lose at Georgia, because then those two teams are completely out of the picture. And then I think that the way that or the room for Miami to improve and get closer and closer to Notre Dame is much higher because the teams between 10 and 15 are more likely to lose than the teams that are currently at a Notre Dame. So Notre Dame might still get up to seven or six, but Miami has a chance of getting to eight and nine much easier. Like they can move up six spots easier than Notre Dame can move up three. So like.

The FCC gets real clean, by the way, if Georgia beats Texas and Alabama beats Oklahoma. Because then then you're really just watching Vanderbilt at that point. yeah um but if texas and oklahoma win these games then you have you want to talk about you want to talk about cc heavy field that would probably be the path potentially for five SEC teams to make 12 spots yeah that was that's going to happen so um old miss Georgia A&M Bama Texas and know you who would be out in that i don't i yeah because then then we're just going to have to look at final resumes and you're splitting hairs or is it possible for them to get six a lot would have to happen in the other leagues okay you'd have to have absolutely disasters all

over the place yeah i just i would have a hard time believing that a 10 and 2 now that now texas and m play each other so like you would maybe why up with 9 and 3, and maybe one of those teams would be out. But for the most part, especially if the committee- Can we agree that A&M is in if they beat South Carolina this week? Yeah, A&M's like projected, their percentage projection of making the playoff, I think it's like 99.7% for now. Because the thing is they're going to go 10 and 2,

even if they lose to South Carolina because they play Sanford between South Carolina and Texas. Yeah, I think once they beat Sanford, they're in. Like, it's over. But once they beat South Carolina, they're in. And they're heavy favorites against South Carolina this week. Yeah, they're 20-point favorites, 19 and a half point favorites, bet MGM. So, like, yeah, though they're in, I think Alabama's probably comfortably in.

You know, do they have three games or two games left? It's hard to remember. They have Oklahoma, and they also have to play Auburn. So the Auburn game is going to be tricky. It's at Auburn. The Auburn offense looked better against Vanderbilt. So possibly, that could possibly be a challenge for Alabama, but if they get through the Oklahoma game,

they should feel very comfortable. Yeah. So I think there's only three teams that are basically punched their tickets. And, well, four, actually. I think Ole Miss has also punched their ticket. Yeah. Now, Ole Miss has Florida. Remember, Ole Miss has an open date between Florida and Mississippi State.

Ole Miss has played 10 games. They're 9 and 1. So if they beat Florida this weekend, they are in. Like, you can say whatever you want, resume, whatever. I'm telling you right now they're going to be in. This is a different committee. they're going to operate differently. We don't know what it's going to look like at the end, Andy.

But it'll be very interesting to see if they reward the conference championship game loser in the ways that they did before. Because if you have three lost teams getting into the playoff because their third loss is the conference championship game, then you're going to have 10 and two teams and power conferences. Well, here's the thing, because I think, remember, two conference championship games are different than the other ones. we're only talking

we're talking about rewarding the loser of conference championship game we're really talking about the big 10 and the SEC now they did it with the ACC last year but I think if they had a 10 and 2 or cc or big 10 team sitting out there that they could have put in

instead of SMU they would have so yeah that's interesting if you yeah because there was no 10 and 2 team they were being quibbling over South Carolina and Bama a year ago right so if like a 10 and 2 USC or a 10 and 2 Vandy is sitting there

then there would probably be no debate there. Now, the thing about the Big Ten championship game and the SEC championship game, we'll see. This week's results in the SEC will go a long way toward determining that. If Georgia and Alabama win this week, if Georgia beats Texas, Alabama beats Oklahoma, more likely than not the SEC championship game will be between teams that have either zero or one loss. Now, Alabama is tricky because they have a non-conference loss, and they're undefeated in conference play. But between, like, if Georgia beats Texas, if Alabama beats Oklahoma, more than likely you're going to be dealing with a one-loss team playing against either one-loss Ole Miss or one loss or undefeated A&M. And I haven't even talked about Vandy, but Vandy could get the 10-and-2 with a win at Tennessee at the end of the year.

Kentucky and Tennessee is who they got left. So that's... I wonder if there will actually be... I mean, we've been basically saying that if you're in the SEC in Big Ten and you get the 10 wins, you're safe. And like, there's a lot of teams and not enough spots. The reason I say that is because we do this every year

where we assume going into these last three weeks that it's going to be chalk. It's never chalk. The craziest results tend to happen these next few weeks. Like, not this week, but next week is the one we always thought was super boring because that's when the SEC teams would play the FCS teams, which they're not really doing that much.

A&M has Sanford, but most of them have to play other SEC teams. It is highly likely that some of these teams that we assume are completely unassailable and can't be touched are going to take losses in the next few weeks. So that's why I'm saying, I don't think it'll be a problem if you are 10 and 2 in the SEC of the Big 10 that you will get in. because I don't think there's going to be a glut. Yeah. And usually when there's a glut, it's a nine and three glut.

Yeah. Yeah. So, Vandy, like, I would feel pretty good, like, just win these two games. And you're probably getting in. It's wild. Yeah. Can I go back in time? And clip that?

I don't even, like, five years, two years, even, two years. You go back in time two years and say, we're going to be. talking about Vanderbilt as a potential playoff team in November 2025? I think that Vanderbilt and Indiana fans are tired of hearing people say if you could clip this and play this to my because that's all they hear about their team. But like, yeah,

it's crazy. But it is mind-boggling because you said it, I'm like, yeah, Andy, just say that again. Because two years ago, we could have never imagined it. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm just trying to think like if you look now between teams 15 and 20.

You have a lot of teams that haven't really been a ton. Now, Georgia Tech, the ACC has taken a lot of the bandwidth that we've talked about, but like I'm looking at SC and Michigan are two teams that have kind of been sailing in the dark and we haven't been speaking about them a lot who might be a two weeks, two weeks or two wins away from being right in the thick of this bracket. that's the thing like the thing about USC and Michigan is there there's no case to be made

if they win and they are 10 and 2 like if they went out and they're 10 and 2 they deserve to be in USC and Michigan both of them the odds of them doing it are slim because it's it's a hard schedule like USC has to play Iowa this week at home they're at Oregon and then they play UCLA they're more than likely going to take another loss. If they get through that undefeated, they deserve to be in. Michigan, they have Ohio State at the end. The road between now and then it is not as difficult. They've got Northwestern and Maryland.

The Northwestern games at Wrigley, Maryland's on the road, and then they play Ohio State. Yeah. What I think will be interesting is if those two things happen, and the parlay or the future of that would be pretty crazy, odds. Like if USC and Michigan both went out. Oh, yeah. And that's the thing. I don't think it's, I don't think it's likely at all. I don't think it's likely that either of them went out. Oregon has to beat USC. Oregon has no wins. Oregon does not have to beat USC.

Because for the reasons that I keep talking about. Yeah, if you think, I don't think there's going to be enough competition at 10 and 2 to knock them out. Yeah. But then I would also wonder, too, if we're a 9-and-3 team with a head-to-head win and better resume. We were arguing about this last year. And we might be again because, now, unfortunately, you can't grade intent. Oregon tried to schedule a good non-conference opponent. Like when they schedule Oklahoma State, that was a really good non-conference opponent. Yeah.

The version that showed up this year stunk. But do you think that a team with one fewer win? or sorry, one more loss than a team ranked ahead of it, but two quality wins when the team in front of it doesn't have any. The one with the quality wins is probably going to go. So I'm very curious to see this year if there are power conference teams that reach 10 wins who are left out in favor of teams at 1-9 games, which would then encourage and the scheduling thing

and also show how insane it was if you were an AD or a person of power who said we're not scheduling good games anymore. Like I think that the quality games that you, you play. I don't want to hear this discussion anymore of why did we play that game. Well, I think there's going to be some teams this year who find out that's why they played that really hard game at the beginning of the game. Yeah, it's interesting. So I'm looking at, I'm looking at the game. What's that? You don't think that Miami's thankful that they played that game at the beginning of the year? Oh, I think they're very thankful if they didn't have that game on their

resume. So I'm looking at the FPI resume page. FPI is one of ESPN's made-up stats, proprietary formula. They don't tell you how they do it. And it's it's kind of a predictive one that says it very similar to what what the people in Vegas used to set the line. Interestingly enough, because everybody thinks ESPN is in the bag for the SEC and would, you know, do anything to bash the Big Ten, which doesn't spend it, you know, doesn't take any money from ESPN. Would you like to guess who the number one, number two, and number three teams in the FBI are right now? Yeah. Ohio State 1

Mm-hmm Alabama 2 Nope Is Alabama 3 Nope What is this bullshit formula made up Ohio State 1 Indiana 2

Oregon 3 Alabama 4 What are the ingredients of FPI though Notre Dame 5 they don't tell you But then you go to the resume page Which I know the committee uses is because they continually talk about strength of record. And strength of record is one of the metrics on the resume page.

Now, strength of record is this is what the average, they look at what the average top 25 team would do against your schedule and how you perform relative to that. So in strength of record, Texas A&M is number one, Indiana is number two, Ohio State is number three, Alabama, four, Georgia, five, Ole Miss six, Oregon, seven. This is a long way of saying the stats, it seems, that the committee is valuing this year,

like Oregon better than you think. Oregon's strength of schedule in this, in this metric is 24. Yeah. Yeah. No outrage, though, Andy. No outrage this week. Not really.

Usually when we're doing this, I'm like thinking like I'm going to run to my computer and go rage out a column. And I don't really know if I have one today. No, I don't think there's any rage here. I think for me, it's just excitement over. what the next three weeks are going to bring because there will be some just bat shit crazy results

because there always are at this time of the season that are going to really shake this all up. It is it's it's a bad habit of ours to assume chalk and that's why I've been playing around with the tiebreaker simulator and again I cannot recommend MRED's tiebreaker simulator enough I tweeted out the link earlier tonight on my Twitter if you want to want to find it this person Ari also has a Hallmark movie bingo car generator it's delightful okay delightful

but even better they've got all the power conference tiebreaker generators with every game that's left and you can decide who you think's going to win those games and it will spit out exactly what the conference standings are at the end and it's wild like I said on Saturday night

okay if you're watching on the YouTube stream producer river has put the the web address up it's it's be ball dot not nothing dot net it is so fun because you can pick like i didn't realize until i started playing around in the big 12 one how close arizona state is to still being in this thing how likely it is that a Arizona state wins out and is seven and two in big 12 play and has a really good chance of winning a tiebreaker I didn't put Arizona State on my list of teams still alive to make the playoff, so you're scaring me.

I know. Well, I mean, look, Jeff Sims is starting a quarterback. They don't have Sam Lev anymore. So it's quite possible they lose either to West Virginia, Colorado, or Arizona. I'd say Arizona Territorial Cup is the most likely one they lose. But it is the Big 12. They are starting their backup QB. They could always lose at any time.

So it's not a guarantee. but remember Cincinnati and BYU play so one of them is taking a second conference loss TCU plays BYU this week TCU even though they haven't had the season they want is dangerous I don't know sitting there with two losses The Big 12 has just kind of become uninteresting to me

because it's a one big league and I know who the bid's going to You think you do but yeah Yeah it's funny I was actually thinking about this And I'm going to tweet it soon But I was thinking about this in the car today Andy I was like, everybody always is like, so-and-so would do this or so-and-so would do that. If Notre Dame played the number 14, they'd be favored I saw in the chat. And do you know what Vegas loves when the public overwhelmingly bets on a certain team?

And you want to know why the public overwhelmingly bets on teams and is wrong all the time? Purely eye test. Well, producer river with a really interesting big. 12 point. Yeah. He said the big 12 needs Baron Morton to get healthy. Baron Morton, Texas Tech starting quarterback has been playing injured. Remember, the game they lost against Arizona State, he didn't play.

Will Hammond played. Will Hammond is their backup. Will Hammond is out for the season. But just their third string guy, Mitch Griffiths, is now the backup. Really, though. Try to internalize that if you're listening, though. The general public bets solely with their eyes. In the general public, when they're heavy on a side,

based on their perception of their eyes is largely wrong. Yes. Yep. So anyway, this is going to be so much fun, Ari. It really is. I cannot wait because we're going to get to see two games in the SEC this weekend between teams we all thought could make the playoff at the beginning of the year. and there's a good chance that two of them will be out at the end,

or all four are still in, which makes it even more interesting. Yep. Some sexy looking bracket, and I love that there are teams in there that probably won't be in there at those spots based on these projections, but hey, that's what we're doing right now and we'll help you break it down. I don't know, man. I think we covered everything.

Did I miss anything? No, I think we got it and appreciate you guys coming out. If you're new, if you haven't seen us before, we do a show every day, 3 p.m. Eastern time. It's Monday through Thursday during the football season, and then we have a postgame show on Saturday nights, 11.30 p.m. Eastern after all the games, we wrap them all up. Also, if there's huge breaking news, anytime we pop on live and we mix it up with you guys in the chat. Thanks so much. Please subscribe to the On3 Sports YouTube page. You can also find me at Andy Staples on Twitter. You can find at Ari Wasserman on Twitter, Andy underscore Staples,

and at Ari Wasserman on Instagram. This is going to be a fun ride the rest of the way. We'll talk to you tomorrow at 3 p.m. Thanks for being here, everybody.