Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Top 25 AP Preseason Poll: Why the SEC received ZERO first place votes

Episode Date: August 17, 2026

On Monday morning, the AP revealed the College Football preseason top 25 poll. While Ohio State and Oregon started off the list, Andy & Ari dive into the rest of the list and the 1st place vote getters. For the first time since 2015, the SEC did not receive a single first place vote in the AP Preseason Poll. Is this the right way? Andy & Ari dissect the list here.   (0:00) On Today’s Episode (1:04) Presenting Sponsor (2:53) Intro: AP Preseason Poll (4:11) AP Poll Deep Dive (7:38) Big Ten at the top (10:28) Returning Production - a look at the 2025 preseason poll (12:24) Top 10 to Unranked? (21:31) Teams by conference (22:03) GameTime (23:36) Texas - ZERO first place votes? (31:50) Polymarket CFB Odds (33:20) Revisiting Texas (36:39) Unranked to the College Football Playoff? (47:59) Clemson - Unranked (1:00:24) Thanks for watching!   Once Andy & Ari wrap up the discussion swirling the overall top 25 list, the fellas dive deeper into the Texas Longhorns. As Andy & Ari both had the Longhorns as their #1 team, the voters in the AP Poll didn’t give Texas one first place vote. Is this warranted for the Horns? Watch as Andy & Ari dive deep into the Longhorns ahead of their 3rd season in the SEC.   Next up, the fellas discuss which teams could go from unranked in the preseason to the College Football Playoff field. Which teams are top on the list? Andy explains why Florida and Auburn could be in the mix.   To close, the fellas head down to Clemson, where Dabo Swinney's Tigers do not find themselves on the AP Preseason Poll for the first time since 2011. Is this alarming for Clemson? Andy & Ari dive in   Our show is presented by Polymarket!   New User Offer: Deposit $10, get $20 upon sign up   https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/ON3   Trade on College Football games every week on Polymarket. Download the Polymarket App with code ON3 for a $20 bonus upon sign up.   18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirement apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur.   We are sponsored by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying tickets to every type of event with Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Gametime.co     Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/AwwNbuZZJPs   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's Andy and Ari on 3 presented by Polly Market. The AP preseason poll is out. And for the first time in 11 years, not a single SEC team got a first place vote. Why? What? Is the dry spell going to continue? Are the AP pollers sure about that? We'll talk about it.

Plus, Texas checks in at number five with aforementioned zero first place votes. Are Ari and I? on the cutting edge here? I thought we were doing group think with Texas, but apparently not. Why do the poll voters feel very differently than we do about the Longhorns? Plus two power conference teams that are not ranked in the AP preseason poll that based on their roster spend still have a chance to make the college football playoff. We'll talk about it all on today's Andy and Arion 3,

presented by Polymarket. We got a new sponsor alert, Ari. We are now brought to you by Polymarket. That's right. Available in all 50 states. Download that Polymarket app. And now we're taking positions. It's what we're always doing.

Moving markets. It feels great. Yeah. We're market movers, guys. Exactly. So this works very much like what you're used to. The difference is, well, if you've traded soybean futures or pork bellies, you're really going to know what's going on.

But basically you're taking a position saying something to the tune of, I don't know, I think Auburn will win more than seven and a half games. And based on how many other people take the position either with you or against you, that changes your payout. And it also changes as the season goes on. So you've got that. You've also got positions you can take on games that are going on right now, like Major League Baseball, or once college football gets kicked off, there will be positions on games

that are going on. There will be spreads. It will be very similar to what you're used to. So download the Polymarket app and use the code on three. New users get $20 when they deposit 10 on sign-up. So you deposit 10 bucks. You get 20 bucks from Polymarket and you start trading. Ari, it feels like football season, man. There's nothing better than my two favorite things in the entire world, Andy, college football and trading. That's right. So let's start trading with Polymarket. Download that app, use the code on three. We need to do. deposit $10, you get $20 right off the bat. Ari, let's have a show.

Let's have a show. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3 presented by Polymarket. Happy AP poll release day to those who celebrate. It's just another signpost, Ari, that we are that much closer to actual football.

We'll be watching actual football on our televisions a week from Saturday. In North Carolina, TCU play in Dublin. Neither one of those ranked in the AP preseason poll. But Andy, were you watching preseason NFL this weekend? Hell yeah, I was. Just to feel something, you know? It was unbelievable. It was incredible.

It was guys in football helmets that I remember. It was because I like, see, most people don't like this part of the preseason. I love it. Yeah. Because this is dudes that we watched in college that might be the last chance we get to see him in a football uniform. If you don't like watching Ty Simpson sling a few touchdown passes for the Rams and what are we even doing?

Oh, yeah. Well, I was watching Jalen Milro cleanup for the Seahawks. Like, yeah. Zooka Joe Milton coming in for the Cowboys. Yeah. Yeah. Let's go. But it does, like, that's when it really starts to feel like football season for me.

And then the AP poll comes out. And then I just picture Ralph Russo smoking a cigarette somewhere in Brooklyn. But we're here. Our friend Ralph now works for the athletic, but he ran the AP poll. Didn't vote in it. Now he votes in it. 20 years, yeah. Yeah.

Long time. But it is cool to see teams ranked in order. Usually we're the ones doing it in June and getting yelled at. It's cool to see people get together and do it. I don't know about you, Andy. I don't get so hyped up about the AP poll. I get more hyped up about the coaches poll because the AP poll always mirrors the coaches poll. The voters in the AP poll reference the coaches poll while making their rankings.

And there are two differences from the AP poll top 25 and the coaches poll top 25. In the coaches poll, Texas is four in Notre Dame as five. It's swapped in the AP poll. And the other top 10 differences, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are swapped in the AP poll. Oklahoma is number 10 in the AP poll instead of number nine, but virtually the same top 10. but different first place votes and I find that very interesting because the coaches poll Georgia and Texas did get some first place votes they got zero in the AP poll well it's a simple explanation here Andy is is that if you are a head coach in the SEC

you have to not be able to fathom anybody not in the SEC being the best that's true so coaches in the SEC are certainly going to vote SEC teams number one But continue. I didn't mean to interrupt you for the second time in your minutes. Ohio State runaway number one in this poll with 40 first place votes, which that is the most by far. So I'm bad at math, but I'm doing some quick math here. We have 69 voters. So 40 of 69 shows Ohio State number one, which I find very interesting. We had 11 people vote in our on three poll that we made last week.

And not one of us had Ohio State in first place yet. We all had Ohio State so high that they wound up being number one in our poll because we all had different number ones. You know I'm Mr. Buckeye. Right. Yeah. I'm kind of surprised by how many votes they got to be won. Like they have some questions. I was too.

You know, the more I think about it, I go back to the individual ballot that I, put in for the on three poll and I think I made a mistake. Like the more I think about it, I did a series of columns the last few weeks of things I love and things I hate about each top 10 team. And I've really refallen in love with Oregon. Like Oregon being at number five for me seems a little bit low. Ohio State was number two. I understand they've got a lot of good players, Jeremiah Smith, the receivers, Julian

saying, blah, blah, blah. But I guess maybe, you know, when you have a really, really good receiver and a Heisman finalist quarterback, that's probably more than enough for AP voters to put you in at number one. I just, I wonder about their offensive line. You know, we'll see. We'll see. They're going to be one of the top five teams in the country.

So it's not like I'm upset about it. But I think that there's more to like at the moment about Oregon and their veteran team and their defensive line is just so nasty. Like, and you know how you win championships in the sport. So I wanted to apologize to Oregon fans. I misranked you. Well, interesting because our friend Ralph Russo, who we just mentioned, tweeted out after the poll was released, this is the first time since 1961 that the Big Ten has had number one and number two in the preseason eight people. So that was Iowa and Ohio State, I believe, back in 1961.

But I think it just tells you where Oregon is as a program. Everybody who ranks teams has Oregon in the top five, right? or and everybody expects them to make the playoff. Everybody expects them to be one of the best teams in the Big Ten. So I think that probably just explains where we feel like they're at in the day and landing are Ohio State. I don't mind all the voters going Ohio State. Like if you're going to pick somebody, that's the safe pick.

Like who's almost always good. Who rarely ever lets you down? Like even when Ohio State lets you down, they go like 11 and 1. Yeah. Certainly safe. I'm just thinking, and we're going to get to Texas in a minute. But as we were confused about who should have first place votes, obviously Texas is out there. But are there other SEC teams that you think are worthy of first place votes? Georgia. Okay. The team I had in the mock playoff bracket winning the whole thing. Now, granted, I did say in the mock playoff bracket, I'm expecting. I'm expecting. in the quarterfinals, and that is what put Georgia in a position in that case to make it. Georgia returns a ton of production. I was reading Bill Connolly this morning at ESPN, and apparently they return 13 players on defense or something like that with 200 plus snaps of experience.

They had seven games last year, Georgia did, of holding their opponents to seven points or less, or I mean, 10 points or less, not seven. and they played a ton of freshman and sophomores last year. So we know that the dog's defense is going to be really, really, really good. I think Gunner Stockton's underrated. Frazier is a hell of a back. I'm starting to, you know, see the magic a little bit more when I saw some of the efficiency numbers on defense returning. Yeah, and it's not just that.

I mean, they actually feel like they have really good receivers this year, which is something that Georgia has struggled with in the past. You and I have both talked about how much we like Gunner Stockton. And so I think there's a lot to like with Georgia, but not enough for an AP poll voter to give him first place vote. Yeah. But I want to point out. Well, there's inherent bias too in AP poll.

I think flashiness matters. Like the fact that Jeremiah Smith exists matters. Texas is as flashy as it gets and then you get a single first place vote. I know, which is confusing. But, you know, returning quarterbacks who were Heisman finalists. Well, it's funny, though, that you bring up returning production. And I'm actually agreeing with you on it because if anything last year should have taught us that that isn't always the key. Let us look at last year's preseason AP poll, Ari.

Now, this one, an SEC team did get the most first place votes. That was Texas. They were number one. Number two is Penn State. Number three was Ohio State. Number four, Clemson, number five, Georgia, and number six, Notre Dame. Four of those teams did not make the playoff. Yes. And I'm getting very, very, like this is not going to happen.

But like Ohio State, Oregon kind of reminds me of Clemson, Penn State last year. Just a lot of returning production. They have to be good, right? They just have to. But the biggest difference between Penn State and Clemson and Oregon and Ohio State is that they have two quarterbacks that have already produced at the highest of high levels, where those two teams had questions. Yeah, Julian's saying in one year as a starter,

has already been better than Drew. or Cade Clubnick ever wasn't any year they started. Although you didn't see Cade Clubnick chucking it around a little bit for the Jets this weekend, right? I did. I'm sure. Andrew. Hey, Drew Aller for the Steelers was on point. Yeah, I think he ran one in for the Steelers, right?

Yeah. So, you know, you never know. It's never too late. You know, the one thing that I do know about the NFL, Andy, is that you don't have to be good in college a quarterback to be great in the pros of quarterback. You usually do, actually. It's not a prereact. But, you know, it is interesting. So Andy, continue with that.

thought process, though. We're thinking about teams that, and it's so hard because you like, you don't really think about holes right now. It's so much easier to fall in love with returning production and familiar faces and, you know, narrative. But I'm trying to think of like which top 10 team could finish the season unranked for circumstances that we could try to foresee. Although that's when that happens, it's unforeseeable.

So our guy Brett McMurphy tweeted that out. Yes. Where, like, it is, it's shocking. every year for the past 23 seasons with the exception of 2019, at least one preseason top 10 team, finished the year unranked, not miss the playoff, not underperforming, like was a top 10 team in the preseason and unranked

at the end of the season. So they were eight and four or worse. So I'm looking at this. A&M is the most likely candidate, I would say because their schedule is significantly harder than was last year. They had the easiest of the SEC schedules. Now, look, they didn't go to South Bend and beat Notre Dame last year. So it wasn't like they did nothing.

That's the big loophole in that argument, by the way. Right, right. That's a big plot hole. Yeah. So the thing is A&M, I think you could, the way that, but the way that would happen is they'd have to lose so many coin flip games. Probably would have to lose Arizona State. Yeah.

in the pre-conference schedule. And then they just have to lose some coin flip games, be that LSU, Missouri, Alabama. I mean, look, South Carolina took a big-ass lead on them and then collapsed down the stretch. But they go to Columbia, which is not an easy place to play. Tennessee comes to them. Obviously, they have to finish the season against Texas

in Kyle Field. It is going to be a slug fest pretty much, every week for these guys. So I think that's why you would probably pinpoint them as the potential one that would drop out completely. You want to know why I would pinpoint them? There are questions about Marcel Reed and they're replacing four of their five offensive linemen.

That's a good way to do it. You like that's solid for me. Also, they had the number three overall transfer class in the On Three portal rankings. Yes. So they did bring in a lot of production too. So, you know, a lot of times that's a pretty good indicator that you're going to be pretty solid. And since Silco's been there, they've typically filled holes very well through the portal.

Yes. And Mario Craver is one of the best receivers in the country. Like, there's a reason why they're ranked in the top 10. But, you know, we're just coming up with hypothesis here, right? Yeah. I mean, like, you know, like, does Isaiah Horton they get from Alabama? He's supposed to bolster that receiving core. Was never truly a star at Miami or Alabama.

So, you know, maybe, maybe that's not what they expect. I don't know. that's the only way that that happens is if they are just in cannot conceive let's just play a five second game real quick okay go for it i'm trying to think like ohio state oregon georgia notre dame texas indiana miami ommis and oklahoma like what is the worst case scenario for all of these teams and it's like really hard to fathom a lot of it because some of them there's so many good players like oklahoma's a very balanced team um is john mature too jacked to be good i don't know okay well let's Let's throw another.

And look, we're not wishing injury on someone. This is just something that happened last year. John Mitter got hurt in the middle of last season. Yeah. If Jammatier gets hurt or Trinidad Shamless gets hurt, what does that do to the Oklahoma Ole Misses? And that's the sad thing about this. Like, if this happens, there's a good chance.

It's just because there was a key injury. I wonder how many of the ones that McMurphy just mentioned had injuries play into the factor of that. Like I saw like the first team that he listed that finished in. the top or that finished outside of the top 25, I believe was a team that like had half its team suspended. Well, like Clemson, but Clemson and Penn State last year. Mm-hmm. Okay, Drew Aller got hurt for Penn State, but they were already bad by that point.

Yeah. He got hurt at the end of the Northwestern loss. They'd already lost to, to Oregon, UCLA at that point, and then they lose Northwestern. I mean, Clemson was just a pure meltout. Like, yeah. Will Help got hurt kind of midway through the season, but like, they didn't have a lot of key injuries. They just weren't very good. Yeah, I don't know. We'd have to look this up, but I don't know how many teams who had nine

draft picks in the top four rounds have ever finished outside of the top 25. It would not be shocking to me if that was the first instance of that ever happened. LSU last year, Nussmeyer was hurt all year. Yeah. And then once they fired Kelly, because I think I, you know, if you don't fire Kelly, maybe it doesn't just snowball on them. But I don't know. I mean, they, they were pretty bad that second half against Texas A&M, which was the end of his tenure. Yeah. Yeah, producer River here is asking, can Miami take a skid?

And I think it's like, I mean, I guess conceivably, but they don't think so. Not with that schedule and that level of talent. Yeah, that schedule, that level of talent, that offense, dude. Mark Fletcher, Cooper Barca, Darry and Mesa, Malachi, Tony. They could lose games they aren't supposed to lose, but still wind up ranked. Like, they're not going to wind up unranked. They're going to be 23 in the polls. So like, and like, I don't see.

three losses on that schedule. So, yeah. You know, it's just, but again, it's, it's, when this happens, it's just an unconceivable thing. And it makes sense at the end, but it's hard to forecast it. Yeah. Like, I don't know, Indiana, like, in Indiana, could Josh Hoover have a terrible year and turn it over a lot?

But, like, still, like, that doesn't strike me as something that Kurt Signetti would allow or, we've also seen how consistent they are since he's, he's gotten there. Yeah. Their schedule's harder in the Big Ten in Big Ten play than it was the last two years. But it's, I don't think it's that much harder that they would be just completely unranked. Like you'd have to be eight and four or seven and five to be completely unranked by the end of the season. Yeah.

And I just don't see that. Certainly not going to happen in Notre Dame. They're going to be double-digit favorites in every game they play, including the one at BYU. Yeah, like Indiana would have to lose four of those games. Throw that schedule back up there. so you'd have to lose Ohio State, Michigan, SC, and Washington, I guess. Yeah.

And I guess if you could lose all those, you could lose Nebraska too. So you could be seven and five there. Yeah. I guess that's how that would happen. But I just don't see it. They've just been so consistent since Signetti got there. Yeah.

When did they laid an egg? They were severely out-talented at Ohio State the first year and ditto for at Notre Dame. So they laid an egg against Old Dominion last year, but they didn't lose. Correct. Did they lay an egg against Iowa last year? Was Iowa just better than we think? I mean, Iowa did that to Oregon, too, and SC and, you know, like, they did it over and over.

So. Yeah, I just remember Kurt Signetti after the opener was really pissed. Oh, yeah. Yeah, they had a couple defensive bus that led the long Colton Joseph touchdowns, and he was not happy. Yeah. So, but I, yeah, I just don't see, like, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, C.C teams at the back of the top 10 are the ones that I could see things just going the wrong way. Which is kind of a weird thing to say when the topic of the episode was that none of them got first place votes. Well, if the three SEC teams in the back half of the top 10 are the ones that you're worried about them, that's like five of the top 10 teams that they have in the, in the, in the, in the poll.

Yeah. Well, and, and what's interesting about this, Ari, Ari, is if we look at this poll. If this were the way the season ended, then you're looking at what, let's see, one, two, three, four, five, six SEC teams in the playoff. Conceivable. That's the thing. And none of them are Bama, which is another interesting team. Right. And it'd be only, I'm sorry, it's not six SEC teams.

I'm sorry. I read that wrong because the Big 12 champ has to make it based on the rules this year. So LSU has to make it. Yeah. So you'd have five SEC teams. But that's, it's interesting because we're talking about how there's no first place votes for the SEC. But there's still that, oh, but they're deeper. Oh, but this, you know.

Yeah, but that's been the whole thing. I think that most people through the SEC Big Ten debate have settled on this as the actual reality. But do we really think that A&M, Ole Miss, and OU are that much better than SC Michigan? Washington, Penn State, which are 14 through 18? I mean, I think they might be. I mean, Ole Miss has two of the top 10 players in the sport on their team. And Oklahoma might not be as flashy, but I think that they don't really have any. Like when you look at Oklahoma has one of the best defenses in the country.

And Oklahoma doesn't have a position group that makes you go, hmm. I mean, they really upgraded their receivers. They got two transfers to come in with Satania. You know, the quarterback, I think is kind of a question. Yeah, yeah. They're a pretty well-rounded team. But the thing that everybody, I think, just generally agrees upon right now is that the SEC has more good teams from top to bottom,

but the Big Ten right now has better elite teams. And that's what we see in this poll here. So the SEC teams by, sorry, the AP poll teams by conference, SEC leads with nine, the Big Ten has eight, the Big 12, four, the ACC three, and Notre Dame is your one independent there. So no group of six teams ranked in this preseason poll, which I would bet that there will be one or two ranked by the end of the season. That's a case if I don't think anybody knows who to guess at this point. But Ari, we got to talk about the team you and I, when we did this exercise, both ranked Numero Uno, that not a single AP voter ranked number one.

But first, let's talk about game time. We're going to talk about Texas in a second. If you'd like to see AP preseason number one, Ohio State, go to Austin to play the Texas Longhorns. You can get tickets on game time. Now, $559 as you get in price. But actually, if you click the $559 ticket, it looks pretty good. The view looks pretty good for that one. So how do I know that?

because on GameTime's app, it shows me exactly what my seat would look like, what my view from my seat would look like. You want to spend a little less, but see a really badass non-conference game. Oklahoma heads to Ann Arbor Week 2, Oklahoma, Michigan. Your get-in price 2991, and that seat looks pretty dang good.

Like you can see really well, a lot better than Ari and I get to see from the press box. So I think if you want to see any of the great non-conference games, Game Time is where you go. If you want to see a comedy show, a concert, a pro sports event, you name it. Game Time has the tickets. So download the GameTime app or Dina Code Staples for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply, of course.

Download the Game Time app for Dean of Code Staples, $20 off your first purchase. Let's talk Longhorns now, are you? Because I suspected that most people would agree. with us on Texas because the sheer talent on the roster, the fact that they were pretty good at the end of last season, that they seemed to have figured out the things that they were bad at earlier in the season. Plus the barrage of circus Cam Coleman catches that we've been seeing on Instagram and Twitter all week. That too.

That too. No. No. We're on an island, buddy. We're out there alone. So I want to, there's a lot of meat on this bone. and I'm just like very curious because when I think that I have fallen so in love with Texas

over the course of the past few years and I've been burned for the most part, although they have been making the playoff and beating really good teams. But whenever I am complimentary of Texas or confused by where they're ranked or I produce a CFP bracket and pick them to win at all or my poll, this is number one. The number one thing that I get from people is they're coaching. coaching stinks. People, I still think, despite the fact that you and I have a ton of respect for the build that Steve Sarkesian has done at Texas, which is taking them from a team that had all the resources and all the talent and just stunk to a team that is getting a lot more out of their players and, you know, winning big time games and playing in the SEC championship, I'll think there's an appreciation for the job he's done there. And I'm very curious, what is do you think? thing like Ari, how bad, if Texas had been what it was from 2010 through 2020, how bad would they have been the first two years in the SEC?

They would have been terrible. So I just don't understand. I'm actually kind of just confused by the negative sentiment towards him. And like, I don't know if it's people's bias happening with what happened or creeping in with what happened at the end of his Washington tenure or USC with the. Well, it's like Washington, he could. ever get over the hump. Like, they were like always a perennial eight game winning team.

And USC, obviously, it ended the way it ended. And then he had to completely rehabilitate his career and his life. And his life, yeah. But since he's been at Texas, all he's done is make them what they're supposed to be. Now, did they live up to expectations last year? No, but they were breaking in a new starting quarterback. They lost a lot on their offensive. blind like the things that you thought might trip them up tripped them up and also the season during

last year's run had maybe the best collection of wins of anybody in college football right like that was a disappointing year yeah it had had one mind-bending loss that was the florida game but the other two losses were were at ohio state at georgia no shame in that so yeah and they then they go out and they fill the holes that they had. Like their running back group was not great last year. So they went out and fixed that. They didn't really have a true wide receiver one last year. They went out and got kids.

They got luxury items like Rishin Biles. Like I don't think they needed Rishin Biles, but my God, like they got them. A sideline to sideline linebacker like that, by all means, do it. Yeah, sideline to sideline linebacker lining up directly behind one of the best edge rushers in the entire sport.

Yeah. So it's just, I get that when you are making these polls, there is an element of projection. And I also get that Texas has yet to play in the national championship game during Steve Sarkesian's tenure. But my viewpoint of Steve Sarkesian at Texas has been a monstrous success. Like I, and I just don't understand why I view it. It's the same thing with Dan Lannning. You and I view Dan Lannning one way. And I think part of it is we talk to actual coaches

who respect the job these guys have done. But here's the thing that you, when do you ever hear a coach even off the record go, yeah, the Sark's just never going to get it. They don't say that. But here's the tricky part about that. Because I know that we do talk to coaches and personnel people, and I think we have a pretty good idea.

But usually when everybody in the sport thinks of a coach in a negative way, there is a segment of the fan base that also is like, what the hell? I don't think I hear very many Texas fans going, our coach sucks. I don't hear very many Oregon fans say our coach sucks. And oftentimes, I know that you're probably going to say that they're programmed to defend, but oftentimes with the criticism of coaching, They're the loudest ones.

Yeah, amongst themselves, they'll complain the loudest and their complaints will be the harshest. So, yeah. Don't see all the threads on those message boards during rough Saturdays of fire the coach yet. So I don't get that with Sark. You don't get that with Lannning. Now, what you do get with Sark, and I have seen this from Texas fans amongst themselves, Red Zone is he's not great at calling plays in the Red Zone. That is the one criticism that I will accept.

because the facts back it up. The facts don't back up into the other criticisms. But I do find it interesting that if you are looking at the difference between the coaches and the AP poll, Andy, a tremendous amount of respect for C. Sarkesian in the coaches poll. The tremendous amount of respect for Texas in the coaches poll in terms of the talent they have. I mean, they're only one spot different. They just got first place votes in those. and the AP poll is just in a different place.

And you would think that the AP poll, and I don't know if this is offensive. I voted in this in the past, you have to. I don't know how much time people are actually dedicating to this. And I think a lot of people are just, I think Texas is by and large number five because they were in number four range. There's a reason why they didn't get any first place votes because Texas was number five in the coaches poll. So people were referencing that.

Well, but what's interesting. putting same same as in the coaches poll like indiana's number six now indiana got more first place folks in the coaches poll than got an api but i think it means that the people are pretty pretty all over the map on indiana yeah well river hit the hit the nail on the head here i don't know if you saw this text anybody's right there is a large resentment in the love parade that texas throws every off season without paying it off and i think that's part of the reason where people are like okay, I'm tired of hearing about how great Texas is in June, July, and August. I want to see how great they are in December.

But at the same time, Andy, two years ago, they pushed Ohio State, the eventual national champion to the late in the fourth quarter. And it's like, does that not matter? Like, did people not watch that? Now, I know that they called that toss play. You know, that was where the red zone play calling comes in the play. But they played toe to toe with the team that was blowing everybody else out of the water. So, like, it's just me and you both believe that they will break through. Whether it's this specific year or not, who knows?

Individual years are hard to win. But, like, I would be, like, if I had to bet my life, somebody put a gun to my head and said, Steve Sarkesian, you have to answer this question right. Well, Steve Sarkesian win a national championship before he's done at Texas. Like, I would wager, yes. Okay, so it's interesting that you bring that up, because AP voters, for the most part,

not allowed to do any sort of have any financial commitment to what they think is going to happen. Let's look at the people who are committing their dollars. Let's go to the Polymarket national championship winner market because their version of first place votes is who is on what team, to win the national championship. And the way it works is, you know, you just say yes or no on a national title for this team.

And look, there's a lot of teams clustered at the top. If you go above 10% in the market, you've got Miami at 11%, you got Georgia at 13%, you've got Ohio State at 13%, Notre Dame at 13%, Indiana at 13%. There are two teams at 15%. Are you notice who I haven't named yet? yet? You would have not named Oregon in Texas.

That's correct. So more people are in the Texas will win the national championship market than people are in the Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Georgia, or Miami with the national championship market. And I think this is really helpful. I do. You know, and you have 20,000 people this morning chatting in this future here. So it's a very, very active market. And I just you would think that from all the things that I just got done saying in terms of guesses for why people get upset that Texas is ranked high or the reason why Texas might be lower in the AP poll is completely contradictory to what we see here with the financial aspect of it. Yeah. Yeah. These people feel, and it's interesting because it's not like they feel that differently than the AP poll voters.

They just have a little more fate than Texas and Oregon, which interestingly enough, what? two coaches do we just talk about are the ones that the average fan goes, well, they're never going to go. They're just never going to work. Yeah. Stark, Dan Lannning. Yeah. And like, again, this is just another chapter in the

Kurt Signetti broke everyone's brain book. Yeah. But every single active national championship coach right now had a period of time. That's Sark and and Lanning are in right now, right?

Kirby Smart had this period. Ryan Day had this period. Lord knows Davo had it 15 years. Yeah, Cigetti broke through really quickly once he entered the realm of, you know, coaching a team that could win one. Urban Meyer broke through really quickly once he entered the realm of coaching a team that could win one. It was this year two at Florida. But that's not normal.

Yeah. How quickly did Sabin win one? He won one pretty early too, didn't he? Well, he won one early at LSU. But if you count his Michigan State tenure, it took him a long time. It took him eight years. I don't think that should count. But, yeah.

I think it should count. I mean, yeah. I mean, I do think that Steve Sarkesian is also the, like, living embodiment of resources and geographical area have major impact on how good of a coach you are. Like, I don't know. I think coaches, you know, get better and they get wiser and more experienced at these places. But it's much harder to win a championship at Washington than it is at Texas, which is why Kailin DeBoers, Alabama's head coach right now. And, you know, so Texas, to me, it just seems inevitable.

And I just don't know, like, everybody in Austin sees it. You and I see it, but the general public doesn't yet. And I'm very curious to see if this is going to be the year they finally break through. Yeah, look, from a roster standpoint, there's a reason I had that number one. I think they probably have the best roster. But I think Oregon's up there. clearly Ohio State as Miami is. I'm not, again, I'm not doubting Signetti ever again.

And then George is just ridiculously consistent. So I think the group they have at the top is good. It's just amazing to me. Like, if I go back to last year, I thought the group they had at the top was good too, and four of the top six didn't make the playoff. Like, it, weird stuff can happen. But I just, the Texas thing was interesting to me

because I thought we were, you and I were being victims of groupthink, and apparently we're not. We're a little bit. We have a little group here. River, who would you put another one? It's a very select group here. River, who's your number one team? Pop up here, good guy.

I like Notre Dame. Yeah, no, I like Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame is. I'm not going to say Tennessee too. That's very off brand. And River, you got to just, next time you pop up, it's Tennessee propaganda every time. Balls.

Ball's number one. Hey, get ready, River, because what we're about to talk about, the balls will be involved, but they don't get to be too involved because they're ranked. We'll hover. Next up, who are the teams that are outside this top 25 that could make the college football playoff? Because I think that's also a really fun exercise. If we go back to last season and look at where everybody was, now Ole Miss and Oklahoma were ranked going into the preseason.

Indiana was ranked, but it was at 20. Texas A&M was ranked. So, you know, people got, people figured it out. Miami was ranked number 10. Notre Dame was, well, Notre Dame didn't make the playoff, but they were number six. Texas Tech was ranked. they pretty much had everybody except the G6 teams.

But my guess is that's not how things will work every year. And so if we're to look at this year's AP Top 25 preseason poll, now there are no G6 teams ranked. So there is one team that will make the playoff for sure that is not ranked today. And that we don't know who that could be. It could be Boise State winning the new PAC 12. It could be our guy Jason Nek at New Mexico winning the Mountain West or Dan Mullen and UMLV winning the Mountain West or I predicted Navy winning the American. But that's not why people are here though.

People are here to hear what power teams are being disrespectful. Exactly. Exactly. Okay. I don't think they're being disrespected. I don't think they're being disrespected at all. I think if these, I've got two candidates. And if they do it, they will kind of come out of nowhere.

You're seeing them kind of receiving votes. or in people's personal poll, they may have one or two of these guys ranked, but, you know, in the 20s or the high teams. Before you reveal the teams, Andy,

explain to them how you arrived at it. Yes. So Pete Nacos and I sat down a couple weeks ago. And Pete understands the payroll market in college football better than anybody else. He's plugged in with all the agents. He's plugged in with all the GMs. He has the best handle

on what everybody's paying everybody else. And so what we try to do is come up with the Sarkesian line. Because remember there was the quote that Steve Sarkesian gave to our Chris Lowe, where he said he thinks there are about 25 teams that are paying enough to compete for the national title. Like not the most, but there's a minimum threshold you have to reach. And if you pay above that, then it's basically down to coaching, evaluation, lock, everything else. So like Indiana was not paying the most last year.

We think Indiana was paying between like $20 and $22 million last year. And then there were teams that were over 30 in payroll last year. But Indiana was the best team. So Pete and I were trying to figure out what's that number and how many teams are above that line. So we think the number is about $28 million this year. Okay. And we named about 20 teams just going back and forth off the top of our heads that are over that line. So there's only two of those 20 that are not ranked here.

Which, by the way, you need to write this. I think that people will be interested in this. Well, the problem is people, even though you and I know that Pete knows this better than anybody else, people don't want to hear this and don't want to believe it. I think a headline that says. Two teams paying commiserate with the lower bar of necessary investment that were not ranked are. Because I don't know what two. You haven't told me yet. I'm at the edge of my seat right now.

Can you get? Well, I think you can guess between two conferences, which they play in. Okay. Let me just pull up the poll real quick again. They're both in the same conference, but there's two conferences where most of your candidates would be from. Okay. I've got one. Okay.

Because I'm looking at the others receiving votes list here. Yeah. It's Florida. They are both in others receiving votes. Florida. That's one. Okay. And I don't know this.

This is a crazy yes. I'm just reading the whole list to make sure. Is Auburn the other one? Yes. Okay. Those are the two. And Auburn only got three votes. Yeah.

Yeah. Those are the two that from a roster spend standpoint are the most similar to the other teams on this list. Now, they're both breaking in first year coaches. They're both trying at different ways. Auburn with Alice Golish did the let's bring a lot of guys from the old place. So he brought a lot of guys from USF building around Byron Brown, the quarterback, but he's got like Cole Best is their center, Chaz Nimrod, who also played at Tennessee

before he went to USF. But guys who played at USF and. know that system really well and should be able to theoretically plug in and know it right away summer all meanwhile kept a lot of billion apiers roster like made a a a priority to keep jaden baugh to keep jade and wards they did not keep dj lagway they went out and got erin filo at quarterback because he was with buster faulkner the oc at georgia tech but they kept dallas wilson and they kept Bernal Brown the third. They went out and got Eric Singleton,

who had played for Faulkner at Georgia Tech before he went to Auburn. So both of those teams spent money on their rosters and spent in a similar fashion to the other teams in their conferences that are spending near the top of their conference. They're not spending the most. Like, we think Texas is probably spending

more than everybody in the SEC. Like Florida and Auburn are not spending what Texas is spending. But they are spending pretty, similarly to probably to Alabama, to Georgia, to the other teams that expect to

to compete for national titles. So that's why I'd be less surprised if one of those two made the playoff. And oh, by the way, if you want to cheat sheet on this, they play in Auburn in week three. Yes. So the winner

of that game is probably one you want to watch very closely. I think this might be a segment later on, so stop me if I'm doing this wrongly, Andy. But Clemson is the number 26th ranked team. Actually, I take that back. You're right. Three teams on the list of 20.

Because I was curious about that because it does seem like it would be, it would be a team that might not be spending as much because of what we know of how Clemson operates. Yes, I am sorry. That three, you're right. And then fun fact, is unranked in the preseason AP poll for the first time since 2011. Yep.

Let's talk about Clemson in a second. Let's go back to Florida and Auburn because their schedules are very hard. Again, they fired coaches last year. But so did LSU. And we are, now, LSU is probably spending more than them on the roster and more than most everybody else. But why do we assume one and not the other? I don't know the answer to that, especially because Lane Kiffin, Lane Kiffin's reputation

as someone who turns around in the program fast. He got to Ole Miss, he made them better very quickly. Like that's probably the answer. Portal class also was awesome. Like really feel with like household names. Right. And that's like Auburn by choice was very heavy USF, though I do think if you look at the way they stockpile running backs,

you can see exactly what Alex Gulles wants to do and it fits offensively what he wants to do. With Florida, the portal class was not as star studded because they spent a lot of money keeping what they thought were really good players that Billy Napier had recruited but maybe not coached as well as he could have.

Yeah. And it's interesting that they're kind of lopsided in terms of where they are in receiving votes when Auburn has a exciting, flashy quarterback. And you don't know about Florida's quarterback yet. Because if it's Philo, you've seen him play a little bit in 2024 when Haynes King was dinged up, but you haven't seen a lot of him. Byron Brown, we've seen a lot of over the last three years.

And he plays a very exciting brand of football. So, yes, I think that's very interesting and clearly ones to, you know, watch out for. I'm trying to look at other teams and the receiving votes that could, like, it's not the same conversation, but could sneak into the playoff. Like, for instance, we're looking at, like, ACCC contenders, and I was very on high alert. I was on very high alert for where SMU was.

They ranked number 19 in the AP. Yeah. But I'm looking at secondary or- And SMU's one that probably is spending. Like, they're on our list of teams that are spending. Tennessee's on the list of teams that are, that's why I didn't mention Tennessee, because they're ranked in this poll.

But the thing that is, There are another one that I don't think people are considering as a playoff contender, but they're spending like a playoff contender. On high alert for ACC teams that aren't Miami and SMU, that might be a little bit better. Louisville is ranked. Other ones that aren't ranked that you could be on playoff contention are Cal and Virginia Tech. Correct.

And Cal, I would lean toward because of the quarterback. Jared Kiabai Sagapoletele has a chance to be one of the better quarterbacks in the country. You saw him as a true freshman. He wasn't perfect as a true freshman, but there were enough wow throws as you're like, okay. If this guy takes a leap, then that could be. He had like five wow throws in his first ever start. Yeah. Well, the other thing is Tosh Lepoy was the D.C. at Oregon.

Obviously, he worked at Cal for a long time. He played at Cal. But he really did upgrade that roster. Like we were talking to Jason Eck last week. He's like, yeah, I had a tight end who caught two touchdown passes in Michigan. He plays for Cal now. It's not an accident. Yeah.

So just on high alert because the only path, there isn't only one path into the playoff anymore. So it's not just be 11 and 1 or better. Like there's different way to get there. So especially with the rule changes, Andy. We saw a weird ACC champ last year like it could happen again. So. And then now they've changed their. they're tiebreakers so that chances are the teams that are near the top of the college football

playoff rankings are the ones that are going to be in the championship game. But let's talk about the ACC and that one team that has dominated the ACC for most of our adult lives. And that's Clemson. So unranked in the preseason AP poll for the first time since 2011. So a little history lesson. 2011 is that you're coming off the 2010 season. Dabo Sweeney's second full season as the head coach.

He had to fire Billy Napier as his offensive coordinator. He winds up hiring Chad Morris, which, by the way, history repeats. He hired Chad Morris this year as his offensive coordinator after firing Garrett, Garrett Morris, or I'm sorry, Garrett Riley. And so does this mean that poll voters are out on Dabo? Like, they are no longer giving Dabo the benefit of the doubt because it's not like, like Clemson, like if we went roster for roster with a lot of those teams that are ranked above where Clemson is receiving votes, we would say Clemson has the better roster.

The last time Clemson did not make the preseason poll was the same time where Osama bin Laden was killed. Prince William married Kate Middleton. NFL rookie quarterback Cam Newton burst onto the scene, Game of Thrones premiered, and Adele released a record-breaking smash hit album 21. Hello from the other side. Holy cow. It's a long time ago. You're old. We're old. We need to start doing this from now on. Like I like, look, you ever go to my daughter was born? I think the day that Prince William and Kate Middleton got married, or maybe she was born in your daughter. I just remember watching it in the hospital. Was she born in 2011? Yeah. It's wild to me that somebody born and

in 2011's in high school. Like, it's just, she's going to have a driver's license. 2011? Yeah. She's going to be piloting a motor vehicle. You ever going to like those gift shops like in like mountain towns that have like those books that tell you about your birth year and like

it's like that thick and you can. I always got a kick out of those. So back to Clemson though. Some question to quarterback. They've been down. Last year's coaching situation was bad. I think that this is rational. And what I would be more interested in, Andy,

is to hear your pitch for why they should be ranked. I don't have one. I don't. It's not that head scratching. So, like, I think that this is fair. There are other teams in the ACC, like it would have blown my mind if they were ranked ahead of Louisville or SMU because I think those two teams are further along right now.

And if you couldn't make the playoff with nine draft picks in the first four rounds, what do you do when all those players leave? Now they have some exciting younger players of quarterback. Maybe a refresh at quarterback is exactly what they needed. Yeah, Tate Reynolds might wind up being the guy. Like right now, though, unless Dabo Sweeney changes his mind over the next couple of weeks, it's probably because Christopher Zina starting at LSU week one.

But they have pretty good receivers. They've got pretty good receivers, right? Who's that five-star running back kid that they were obsessed with? Gideon, what's his name? Gideon, I think he's going to be the starting running back this year or in the mix. You know, maybe they have some pieces and I think they can climb their way in,

but in terms of teams that we think is, it's like Miami. Yeah, Will Holtz back coming off the edge. Sammy Brown at linebackers, one of the most talented linebackers in the country. They have, they have guys. They do.

They do. They are. They are still. They aren't hopeless. But it's just, I think that this is a rational place to have them. The thing I don't know, Andy, and if you want to have the Dabo conversation is, are there teams in the receiving votes area of the AP poll that you perceive to be more talented than them? Are they the highest, the most talented team at the most.

There are teams that are ranked that I don't perceive to be more talented than them. Yeah. So I think it's the most talented team at the lowest ranking probably. Yes. Although I don't know, like I still don't think like if Clemson went to Gainesville tomorrow, I would pick Clemson to win. Well, but that's okay,

so Florida and Auburn, for the same reason we talked about them a few minutes ago, their rosters are probably pretty comparable to Clemsons, but their rosters are also probably pretty comparable to a lot of the teams in, in the, you know, 10-ish to 20-ish range.

Yeah. But it will be interesting, and I think when we have five years of data, we can go back and actually do a deep dive into this of what is your spend versus what's your output. Obviously, there will be high variance because coaching matters a lot. Injuries happen, things happen. I get that. But I do think that there will be a correlation between those two things.

And I think that the beginning of Clemson's demise was the late arrival to the party of using the transfer portal. Like I will still, to this day, like I think that Clemson did not strike the transfer portal the way it needed to out of the get-go and they thought that their name was going to carry them through and then they started sliding well i think they thought the name was going to carry them through i think dabbo legitimately thought that a team made up of guys that he recruited out of high school that he kept together that he retained would be better than a team full of mercenaries we were drinking that kool-lade this time last year with clemson and with penn state but it was hard It's hard to, because like that thought process isn't crazy.

Like it seems to be rational. And last year when Dabo came on the show and was talking about it, like I understand why he's like, we're not talking about some coach that's never won anything here. I mean, we're talking about one of the single greatest coaches of all time. Yes. If he thinks something, it's kind of hard not to see his vision. But what I think happened though is that they were late to the party with Portal.

They lost their edge as a program as, as a result of being late to the party. And then now when it came back to getting back into that mix, they're A, not spending as much as some of the, like, I don't think Clemson is spending as much as the ninth highest paid SEC team right now. So, like, there are, they might be pretty close. Okay, but here's my problem.

But they've slipped. Nine draft picks in the top five rounds last year. Mm-hmm. They were not untalented. I mean, and when I say nine draft picks, I don't mean they had like sex in the ninth round. Yeah. Yeah, they had two first rounders.

They had two second rounders. They had a third rounder, two fourth rounders, and two fifth rounders. Like, that is a talented team. Mm-hmm. Talented. And it was seven and six. How many teams in our professional lives have gone from being elite to afterthought back to elite? Hmm.

Has that happened? LSU? LSU did it, right? Yeah. I don't know that. were ever an afterthought. They were, they were still pretty good when they fired less miles. Where was LSU ranked between 2015 and 2019? Was that a four-year period of kind of like in the outside of the top 25 lower 20s type years? Or were they? Well, like 2018, remember 2018,

they make the Fiesta Bowl and win. So they were pretty good then. So they never, 2017 final poll. I'm curious to see where they landed there. They were number 18 in the final poll. They went nine and four. Yeah. But I think that that's a comparable. They came back and won the national championship.

And they did. And had maybe the best team ever in 2019. So, I mean, I don't think it's out of the question that Clemson will compete for the ACC championship this year or be in that mix because the one thing that Clemson has even, that has done without question for the most part of even this downslide was compete in the conference. They've won ACC championships

during this down period. Right. So I just, I don't know what the path is back. Maybe having a Heisman finalist quarterback did carry a lot of Clemson's weight during those triumphant years and they just haven't had that in a while. So maybe like if Tate Reynolds is the next great thing,

then all of a sudden, what's interesting is Tate Reynolds was not, was not expected to be this. Like they were surprised at how good he was when he got there. Sean Watson and Trevor Lawrence didn't surprise anybody. They were expected to be the best quarterback in their class by a lot of people. So that was, what's different here is this is a guy who they took, they liked, but I think they didn't quite realize what they had until they got him on campus.

It wasn't like everybody. The person that he's also competing with was a top 100 player nationally. Chris Vizio was a pretty highly ranked for crude. So, you know, maybe competent. But he would have beat now, Clay, the, I'm going to play. Clemson fan here. He would have beaten out Kate Klubnick

if he was really that good. If there's one program in college football where I'm not 100% sure that's true, it's Clemson. See what I'm saying? But no. Because he's already done in the past. You're saying Davo's going to play the older guy?

Yeah, I'm wrong. I mean, I know that he benched like Kelly Bryant. He benched Cole Stout for Sean Watson. He benched Kelly Bryant for for Trevor Lawrence. He just seemed very connected to Cade, though. I don't know. He seemed very emotionally tied to him last year. No, he's like that with every player.

Yeah. Okay. His history tells you he'll play the better quarterback. You're right. You're right. But loyalty is like a hallmark of Davosweeney. I just probably misinterpreted it. Yeah.

Because he's already proven multiple times in national championship winning years that he's fine benching the older. Right. He cares about them. Yeah. But he's going to play the best one. Now, he might not play the best one as soon as he should, the Deshawn Watson situation.

But remember, Deshaun Watson was also a little dinged up at the beginning of his freshman year. I think he takes over earlier, if not. He also wouldn't be the only person that is weighted, because I do think that there are plenty of coaches who have waited too long to play the better player as a result of seniority locker room elements. But he didn't make that mistake in 2018.

Like, he took care of it. I mean, I cover. I covered a national championship winning coach who was terrible at this. It's funny that you bring up Urban Meyer in the 2015 Buckeyes because that was the last year. There were no SEC teams at the top of the, or with first place votes in the A people. The reason is Ohio State got them all in 2015. Yeah, I mean, but like, yeah, Urban Meyer's loyalty. Like, I think that you could probably go back and if you're an Ohio State fan, check me if you think I'm wrong.

if you went back and looked at the two deeps of every single Ohio State team that he's been coached by and then look at like who ended up you could probably find at least one player in the starting lineup that was not as good as his backup in every single year yeah um like they didn't make the they didn't make the national championship game in his first year because he was playing the wrong safety so uh in that right safety turned out to be von bell who is now in the NFL um but that is funny because not a lot of teams teams go wire to wire number one to number one. So not a great,

great place to be if you're Ohio State probably, especially since you're the last one that this happened. And especially since there's so many other teams getting first place votes. Yeah. Nobody's that confident. But I'm not confident in anything. Like, Andy, I am so pumped for the season because like I just like, I don't, I'm not,

I'm man enough to admit. I don't know, like a lot of this stuff. Yeah. So this is, this is guessing. and, you know, we could have the should preseason polls exist conversation. But look, the reason preseason polls exist is we like talking about college football, I like ranking things. Yeah, and they don't hurt me.

There will always be preseason polls. I just got a text from one of my buddies is an Alabama fan. And he goes, are there really 12 teams better than us? Like, just like just not catching up to like the reason. Well, I think that's something we should talk about later in the week because I want to know, and this is you guys let us know. but I'm curious and I want to test this on Ari. So this will be a segment later in the week.

Let's do it. I love doing tests that I fail at. How do you feel about Alabama if I tell you that Austin Mac is the starter? And how do you feel about Alabama if I tell you that Keelan Russell is the starter? Don't answer now. You know my answer, buddy. Save it for the show. Save it for the show.

We'll talk to you tomorrow.