Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Week 12 PICKS | Oklahoma-Alabama, Texas-Georgia, Michigan-Northwestern, Iowa-USC

Episode Date: November 10, 2025

As the calendar turns from week 11 to week 12, it's time to pick this week's biggest games in College Football. With plenty of conference races looming right, watch Andy & Ari On3 as the fellas give their top picks of the slate ahead! (0:00) On Today’s Episode(0:36) BetMGM(2:20) Intro: Week 12 of CFB(3:42) Modelo(6:18) Week 11 Records(8:10) Notre Dame at Pitt (+10.5)(16:45) PaniniAmerica.net(18:35) Michigan at Northwestern (+10)(30:31) Huel(31:53) Oklahoma at Alabama (-7)(40:37) USF at Navy (+10.5)(44:07) Virginia at Duke (-6.5)(48:49) Iowa at USC (-6.5)(55:27) Florida at Ole Miss (-16.5)(1:03:17) Texas at Georgia (-6.5)(1:13:52) TCU at BYU (-5.5)(1:19:05) Conclusion: See you tomorrow! Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is sponsored by Modelo! Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut Butter and jelly. Macaroni and cheese. Modelo and college football. If you’re watching this, it means you live and breathe football. All season long. You know what that makes you? A Full-Time Fan. Which means you deserve a Modelo. Because football wouldn’t be the same without you. Modelo is the official beer sponsor of The College Football Playoff. We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. Get Huel today with this exclusive offer for New Customers of 15% OFF with code STAPLES15 at https://huel.com/STAPLES15 (Minimum $75 purchase)  Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/uUwKsEHPwjA Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today is Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. It is a pick show, and BetMGM has some juicy, juicy lines for us for games involving multiple two-loss college football playoff contenders. That's right. Notre Dame goes to pit. Michigan plays Northwestern at Wrigley Field. Oklahoma is at Alabama. Iowa plays at USC. USC is the two-loss CFP contender there.

Texas goes to Georgia. We'll pick them all and more on today's Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BEDMGM. We are presented by BEDMGM. We use BEDMGM lines and totals. And you can join us by joining BDMGM. If you have not signed up for BDMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as in college football, CFB, and you'll get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BDMGM. Here's how that works.

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and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. we have a big, big week ahead. We got to make a bunch of picks, sorry. This is going to be a fun pick show because the stakes for these games are getting pretty huge

because we got several where a team is going to be fighting for its playoff life. Notre Dame at Pitt is one of those games. Michigan at Northwestern, well, versus Northwestern at Wrigley Field, one of those games. Oklahoma at Alabama.

USC hosting Iowa and Texas at Georgia. Those are situations where somebody could get knocked out of the playoff picture. You know what I see here, Andy? I see the perfect fall Saturday of like, you know, a bunch of really important games, interesting games. They might not be good enough to be the isolated night game on any one of the major networks, but they are fascinating to people who love ball like Iowa, USC, for instance, Notre Dame Pitt, all games that we're going to be very interested in. And then, of course, at night. we get the entree, which is a beautifully cooked prime beef steak of Texas and Georgia,

which we're going to be at. And I can't wait. It's going to be a great Saturday, and I'm excited to pick it. That's right. We're going to be there with Medello. Before the game, come to the Modelo activation in Athens. Come see us. We'll be doing a pregame show.

We're going to be hanging out. We'll be toasting full-time fans with Modelo. So grab yourself in Medello. stay game day ready all season long come see us in athens before the game kickoff means it's time for medello but before kickoff means it's time for medello also we were at the one in ohio state a couple weeks ago it's so much fun there's so much going on lots of medello products for you to try so come on by and see us in athens we will be there for texas and georgia which are you that is exactly what the longhorns envisioned when they joined the cc and what the cc envisioned

when they took Texas. It was a game like this. Yeah, and you'll be proud of me. I checked the weather for this Saturday. You know, I could pack properly. The low is 48 and the high is 72. And it looks like it's going to be clear skies, which is literally the perfect situation for a football game, right?

It is perfect football. It's just a football game. Any game. Yeah. Oh, it's going to be beautiful. I'm so excited. So excited for your first Sanford Stadium game. game so excited. Is this your, have you, you've been to Athens before, though, right?

I've been to Athens with you before, but I've been to Athens multiple times. I've never been there for a game. I've actually done and been inside Sanford Stadium. There's just no game. So I'm excited to actually see the atmosphere. And yeah, and I'm as excited I am to actually experience the atmosphere as I've like checked off some pretty big stadiums off my list, Clemson being one of them, too, that I had never seen coming into this year. I am super excited for what this game means for the season, too. Like, is Texas dead? I have been somebody also who has been very quick to dismiss Georgia the last month of the season.

And I picked against them last week with Tyler Shoemaker on the show. And they absolutely obliterated Mississippi State, kind of putting everybody on notice that, hey, you know, we're not undefeated. And we might not be, you know, peak versions of ourselves. but we might not need to be peak versions of ourselves to make a very deep playoff run this year. And that was the most complete game we've seen from Georgia all year. So if they can repeat that a few times, we're talking about a very dangerous team going into the college football playoff. For sure, for sure.

So are we going to start here? Are we going to start here? We are not going to start there because we are going chronologically. We've got to talk about records. I know this is the part you wanted to avoid. last week I was 5 3 and 1 Ari was 3 5 and 1 our overall records for the season

I am 56 43 and 3 Ari is 3862 and 2 you're due for a winning streak buddy you do actually like I'm starting to think because I have a system that I've been going off of kind of when I'm picking these games and I'm losing and I'm like 3 and 5 every week

I'm wondering if I should fade myself like fade the picks that I put on the show you're wondering that now I mean it's been consistent Like three and five consistently every week. Is every bit as hard to do as five and three? I'm having a bad year, man. There's no way around it.

Our records have been flipped pretty much every week. I've been five, three, and one or five and four. And you've been three and six or three, five and one. Yeah. Yeah. And with a few really bad weeks mixed in there, too. I don't want to forget those. Yeah.

So I actually feel like, it mirrors my certainty of which teams are going to be in the final four this year because in most years I feel like I have a pretty good handle and grasp on the sport what to expect of teams who's going to lose who's going to win and this year I feel more off like hands off the wheel in terms of like every Saturday's an adventure for me so I hopefully that's the way that everybody who listens to the show feels like I hope that we don't know now I have a clear idea of who I think is going to win the national title at the moment. But I feel like that we all do. So like, but outside of that, who's the second best team in the sport this year? No idea. I really don't know at this point. That's a good place to be November 10th as we record.

Yeah. So, well, let's get into these games. We will start at noon Eastern at Acresher Stadium, the stadium that used to be named after ketchup. Notre Dame at Pitt. Notre Dame is a 10.5 point favorite in this game. Pittsburgh has won five in a row since they changed quarterbacks. They brought in Mason Heinzel, the freshman, and everything took off.

Their average margin of victory since Mason Heinzel took over is 19 points. But I would, I would wager, Ari, that has something to do with the competition they were playing, so that the teams they've beaten in that stretch, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, NC State, and Stanford. Notre Dame is on a very different level. than those teams. Yeah. It is inevitable that Notre Dame's 10 and 2, right?

Like, it's just like, we are there at that point. This is the game where they could get knocked off. This is the last one you got to worry about. I'm just trying to separate what happened last year from my view of this year. And I think that's the prudent thing to do. I can't stand when people use last year's results to inform themselves on what might happened this year, even though coaching trends and team trends sometimes do carry over year, over year.

That said, I just think Notre Dame is much better than them. And Pitt has climbed up the rankings, playing teams and, you know, winning games against teams that aren't nearly as good. This game is at home. Football did feel more pure when that stadium was named after catch up. I just, like, have a hard time picking against Notre Dame at the moment. I do too, and it's because of the way Notre Dame's defense is playing. Right.

Notre Dame's offense sometimes starts a little slowly, but then they always seem to get going. The way the defense is playing right now, it almost doesn't matter. They did give up some yards to Navy in the first half, but then they shut it down completely in the second half. And it's not like they gave up a ton in the first half. It wasn't like Navy was running up and down the field on them. So I think Notre Dame is just much better than Pittsburgh. I think the way Notre Dame plays, the way Notre Dame is built to beat teams like this

and just, you know, Boa constrict them. Now, maybe Mason Heinzsche will make a difference. Maybe he comes out flinging it and Pittsburgh ropes them into a shootout. But we've seen Notre Dame in shootouts too. They can score plenty. So I just, I think Notre Dame is, built to win a game like this and I think they're going to cover

so it's a 10 and a half point spread they're going to cover 10 and a half point spread their next two games are against Syracuse and Stanford they win this they're 10 and 2 they're going to the playoff yeah I'm with you their defense playing a lot better and then also Jeremiah Love you know and we knew he was going to have a good year but it doesn't it feel like

he's kind of coming on at the right time too I think the combination of better talent improved defense best offensive playmaker and I know that Heinzschel's playing well And that's an exciting proposition for Pitt's future. I don't know if that's the answer to beat Notre Dame or at least stay within two scores of them. I think Notre Dame wins by 14 to 17 in this game.

I think even if Pitt can sell out to slow down the run, I think C.J. Carr is good enough to do some damage over the top. And that's the thing. He hasn't really had to in a lot of their games, but they do have a good passing game. Yeah. I know that Notre Dame fans are not a fan of me at the moment. I think this team is good enough to win games into January. Oh, I think this team could play for the national title again.

Like, that's the thing. The argument about Notre Dame and Miami and all that is more of a procedural argument. It has nothing to do with Notre Dame itself. Exactly. And I'm happy that, you know, you, I mean, obviously we're co-hosts. You see right through that. I want people to see that too. Like, if you're coming to watch the show today to say,

or he's going to pick against Notre Dame. No, I'm not. That's not the point of this. No, I think they're very good. They're built to win games now and built to win games in the playoff. I really do think they can make a run. I think we should take a minute, though, and just envision, like, if Pitt were to cover or win this game somehow, what this says about the trajectory of their program and Pat

Marduzzi's leadership in Pittsburgh. Because, like, this is a guy who has kind of, you know, floated in or around hot seat territory for what feels like the last few years. I feel like if Pitt wins this game, that might be one of the high points of his entire tenure, given the way the season's going and where they're at in the season. I mean, he did win the ACC title a few years ago. Now, Pitt still has a chance to win the ACC title this year.

They have a very difficult remaining schedule because they play Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami. But if they beat Georgia Tech in Miami, they're definitely in the ACC title game, and they're probably capable of beating whoever they would play in the ACC title game because they would have knocked out potentially the two toughest teams they would have had to play. And there isn't a single Miami fan on the face of the earth that isn't looking at their game with Pitt and not dreading what could be coming down the pike there because that's just the spot that Miami seems to lose. Remember Miami had that team that played for the ACC title a few years ago and they go to Pitt

the last game of the season. It was Kenny Pickett was a freshman. It was his first star and they lose and it's like, oh, it's okay. Well, it's like, it's all this all over again. It's a bad spot for them. But I feel like if Pitt plays a close game with Notre Dame and even ultimately doesn't win, maybe they cover the spread and we're both wrong, that might change your attitude or everyone's attitude about whether this team is actually equipped to win their conference.

So why I think against Georgia Tech in Miami, I'm going to have different opinions about it. I mean, we'll see what the spreads are in those games, but I think I'm going to have different opinions about it because I do think Pitt is equipped to win the ACC. I just don't think they're equipped to beat Notre Dame. Yep. And that's, that is a compliment to Notre Dame. Also, an indictment of the ACC, which the ACC is in a weird, weird place. As you see in the conference standings that are that are on the screen, lots of teams with one loss in conference play, five to be exact. And then you've got Louisville and Miami with two losses in conference play that are not out of it yet.

So we're going to find out a lot in the next few weeks, but the ACC probably praying Duke does not wind up in the conference title game because they already have four losses, including three non-conference losses. Yeah. And it's going to be a mess. Pitt could actually make it pretty clean because if Pitt beats Georgia Tech in Miami, they're far in a way deserving of that spot in the ACC title game. So we'll see how that goes.

but this is going to be, I hope, an interesting game in Pittsburgh. Notre Dame may make it kind of boring, though. That's what they've been able to do and credit to them for doing that. And that's why we think they could be a good team in the playoff. I'm kind of amused, Andy, because if I would have told you this thing, this statement in August, what would you say? There are now five random teams at the top of the ACC standings on November 10th that have one or one loss in

ACC play. None of those five teams are Florida State, Miami, or Clemson. I'd have said, go ACC. Hashtag go ACC. Unbelievable. Yeah. And especially after Miami beat Notre Dame, I would have said there's no way. There's no possible

way that this team loses two games in ACC play, but they have. And they might lose another one. They might lose another one. Yeah, we'll see. Oh, my goodness. All right. Miami is the agent of chaos in playoff talk, though, by the way. So as long as they keep winning, they're going to continue to be like a thorn in everyone's side.

Well, Pitt's the agent of chaos because Pitt can knock Notre Dame out this week. Yeah, I actually am convinced, like thoroughly convinced. And you know that when I'm 100% convinced of something that there's no way that doesn't come true. But I am convinced that 10 and 2 Miami control. I think Miami controls their own destiny to the playoff. We'll see. We'll see. Yeah.

If Vandy's 10 and 2, they're going to have a say in that, too, because they're all going to wind up kind of mishmashed around that cutline. Yeah. So it's going to be very, very fun to watch the rest of the way. With you, my friend. All right, before we head to the north side of Chicago for a neutral site game that is very near one of the campuses, you have a new addition to your Panini collection.

So Panini America.net, to start your collection, collection, but Ari just got an absolute nuke in the mail. It wasn't that expensive, actually, but I had to have it as a college football person. But, you know, we haven't gotten any of this product yet this year. We might shortly, but this is the 2023 National Treasures College Collection. And one of the most entertaining games I've ever watched was the Ohio State Utah Rolls. bowl from 2022 and you remember that game where jack do cameraizing yeah uh had 350 yards set and cj stroud like torched utah's defense and you know set a rose bowl receiving record i

saw this card on ebay and i had to have it this is a jsn uh rookie patch auto um and i don't know if i'm doing a good job holding it's got the rose bowl patch from that game the swatch is the rose bowl patch and in the picture of him holding the ball is the Rose Bowl uniform he was wearing so the picture the art matches the patch um and this is numbered to 99 and it was just it was signed by him like as a college football nerd I personally think the best swatches that Panini offers are the college bowl patches like any bowl any team if you get a if you get the swatch from where the patches on the jersey um I think that's the coolest thing that you can collect they're not the most valuable thing and you know me i'm i'm always like into like what's worth the most but like to me

this is like something i'd want to put away and just have because i don't really see these you don't see a rose bowl patch that pure very often that is amazing i am going to steal that from you the next time at your house but if you would like you the gold pukunakua if you want or the one of one my homes if you want it probably not okay probably i get that one i'll trade you visit pinini america dot net to start your collection today all right all right let us go to to Wrigley Field, where Michigan will be playing Northwestern. I think they have figured out the orientation of the field. Remember they had the one game there where they can only go one direction?

It seems like they figured that part out now. But this is an interesting one. Michigan is favored by 10. The Wolverines still in the playoff conversation now. They would have to beat Ohio State at the end of the season to get there. But if they can win this one, they are still moving in that direction. Ari. I just want you to know.

I am the biggest Michigan fan on the face of the earth for the next three weeks. I need for my Thanksgiving to be complete while I'm eating my turkey with my family. I need Michigan to be nine and two that day. I don't want it. I need it. I need it. Ben MGM is going to say that. it's going to happen.

You got a 10-point spread in this game. They'll be favored over Maryland, too. But I will say with Northwestern, they're well-coached team. They can muck it up. I'm sure you watch the Northwestern USC game Friday night, like most of us did. How different do you think that game goes

if Jaden Maiava does not make the tackle on what should have been a pick six right before the half? Or they do that Bush League, like swap the punter for the backup quarterback, jersey thing? That was a pretty big play, too. It's Bush League, but I disagree with the Big Ten saying it's not illegal. There are

either eligible jerseys or ineligible jerseys. There's no difference between the number 80 and the number 13. Now, if they have written rules that we don't know about, say, a player can only have the same number for the entire season. The NFL has that. There's a reason in the NFL, you can't

change your number mid-season. It's for that purpose. It's for scouting purposes. And Sam Heward came out of the tunnel wearing 80 right if he came out of the tunnel wearing it if he didn't change jerseys during the game he did i think i don't know that he did i don't know for sure it's sneaky it's sneaky but it's an eligible number but it all eligible numbers are the same in the eyes of the of the of the officiating crew it's against the rules to swap jerseys on the sideline though right or you have to announce it you have to announce the jersey number swap that's why when you're at a game you hear

the officials say, you know, Notre Dame number 47 is now wearing Notre Dame number 80 or something like that. It's also super shady because they don't have name plates on those jerseys. Right. But I think they got him by a technicality. The Big Ten may say that they shouldn't have done it, but if he came out of the tunnel wearing 80, if he was listed on the roster wearing 80, that part I don't know. I don't know if he's listed on the roster. Apparently the Big Ten ruled that if it wasn't a penalty when he came out, but it was a penalty that second the real punter came in later in the game. And that is against the rules. You cannot have, well, also, I don't know, I'm going to agree with Connor Stallions on this. Conner Stallions is one who pointed this out.

So when it says you can't have two guys playing the same position, wearing the same number in a game, I don't know that that's true. Like, first of all, there's no position, as Connor Stallions point out, like, if you're a quarterback and you split out wide, you're not a wide receiver, you're still a quarterback. Like, again, there are eligible numbers and ineligible numbers. And the only thing the officials care about is, are the ineligible numbers downfield when you're throwing the ball? You know, I'm all on board for Conor Stallions to be the chief rules analyst of college football. Like, I'd be, I'd be into that. Thank you.

At any rate, USC caught them in a technicality. They may have to button that thing up a little bit. But if that play doesn't happen, if Myava doesn't make that tackle on story and the ball gets fumbled through the end zone, and it's 2114 Northwestern going to the half, I don't know if Northwestern would have won, but I think that would have been a very different second half.

But I say that there's a very long, way of me saying Northwestern can muck up a game against a better team. Yeah. They can definitely muck up a game against Michigan. Yeah. Now, there are two sides of the coin here. One, Michigan's offense is nowhere near as explosive as USC's. So that makes me wonder if mucking it up is easier.

Like, you don't want, is it easier to muck it up against a team that doesn't throw a bunch and doesn't play that style because you wouldn't say mute you're muted mic check my dog was barking that's my bad it's my bad if you're mucking it up against a team like

USC it sometimes doesn't matter because they can go deep to Mackay Lemon or Lake McCree or all of those explosive playmakers that they have Michigan is not nearly as explosive in the past game as USC so if you muck it up against them, the odds of them hitting a giant explosive play on you are less. Now, we've seen them against Nebraska.

They had plenty of explosive plays on the ground. Yeah. So it's doable. But that's the tricky part. Now, I will say the explosive play that happened right after Jaden Maiava made that tackle and they got the ball back was a King Miller run. Yeah. And Michigan can do that.

Michigan can do that all day. You know how many yards Jaden Mayava threw for against Northwestern without looking it up? I do not. 365. Okay, I don't think Bryce is going that deep. Now, Bryce is going to have that number.

They also won by 21, but can Michigan win by 17 without throwing for 300 yards? And I think that that's kind of going to be the... I think they can. I think they can. And I think also, I think their defense is going to, to make life pretty difficult for Northwestern's offense. So, yeah, and I think even if Northwestern is successful in mucking it up,

Michigan could totally win the game, 16 to nothing. Yes, exactly. And that's a cover and that's everything, everything we're talking about. So I still think there's a chance that Northwestern can muck this up nicely. So I'm going to go Northwestern to cover the 10. I think if this were a one score spread, I would be picking Michigan very easily. But since it's not,

give me the Wildcats to muck it up. You'd check the weather again or what? Did check the weather. It's actually pretty nice. Okay. That's not, and that kind of goes against, that goes against what I want. But it looks like it's going to be clear

and just nice football weather, I think, in the 40s or 50s. Okay. Well, let's hope for no storm. I'm going to lay the points here. I think Michigan's defense is, is not going to give up a bunch of points. I think that Michigan's offense won't score as much as USC,

but I think they'll win by more than 10. Clear, high, 60, low 53, so unseasonably warm for Chicago in mid-November. Yeah, I think this will be an interesting one because I just, I don't think Michigan's path to 9-and-2 against Ohio State is going to be perfectly smooth. that's all I'm saying. So I'm guessing it's this week that it's less smooth than next week. I'll probably pick them to cover against Maryland. Now, if I'm wrong here, we'll have to adjust.

Okay. Yeah. So you're just kind of fading the style and spot. Exactly. Exactly. I know nothing's ever easy for us. Ari, I'm not worried about Michigan. I'm worried about you and me.

You're actually fading our travel plans. Yes, I'm worried about you and me. because we've already booked it all. Like, we have a remote set up at the MGM Grand in Detroit for that weekend. Like, we're going. Nothing changes it. We're going. Michigan loses Northwestern in Maryland.

We're still going. So, yeah. Nothing's ever this easy for us. Even if Michigan loses a game, it's still the Ohio State Michigan game at a very charged time. Like, I don't, I'm still, it will still, I'm not going to, I'm not going to be. Of course, and you're trying to reverse jinx it so that Michigan will be nine and two. I see, I see right through you. I understand.

I'm going to reverse, reverse it. You know, Andy, I should flip. I should flip my pick to Northwestern because I'm always wrong. And I'm usually right. I don't want to be wrong on this one. I don't want to be right on this one. The good thing is I still have 10 points to play with and Michigan can win. I mean, honestly, like, I know that Ohio State fans are probably rooting against Michigan, obviously.

I think that there are certain people who don't like Michigan, but for the, for college football, for entertainment purposes, is the country, you know, but I'm just saying, like, are you, if you're like a Mississippi fan, like, are you not rooting for Michigan to be nine and two going into that? Of course you are. You're just sitting there going, when is Lane Kiff and going to announce to his extension? That, if you're an Ole Miss fan, that is what you're. That's the only thing you're thinking about right now. I'm just saying, like, you know, I, uh, you know my high school reunion is on November 28th.

Oh. Which, not a lot of ball doors at your high school. I was going to say, like, is it, is it, is it, you know, that makes sense. They did a Thanksgiving weekend because most people are, there's a good chance of people being home that week. Oh, I just thought that Thanksgiving weekend is the worst weekend to do it. But like, yeah, I'm, if you like college football, you're not going to your wedding or your, you're, your reunion that's 20 years though yeah i skipped my 20th you did i went to my 10th everybody was

much more successful than me it was embarrassing i don't like doctor doctor lawyer lawyer doctor i know but the way i would look at it is this how many people have achieved what you've achieved in their specific field well more like if i'm deciding to go to the 30th one or not next year i'm much skinner than i was for the 20th. But what do you think is more successful? Being a doctor or being one of the lead college football reporters for Sports Illustrated? Doctors are more useful to society. So I'm still going to go with that. But what do you think is harder to achieve? I don't know because I've got friends who are doctors and their classes looked really hard in college. So it's pretty difficult to do what

they did. Anybody can be a doctor is my point. Yeah. If you're a doctor, I don't know. Listen, My decision to go to the 30th next year is much more dependent on me being skinnier than I was for the 20th. Well, we also have to, you know, the fall wedding fall reunion thing, like I think is kind of annoying. But, yeah, I would have tried to at least make an appearance if it was any other day. Well, speaking of physiques and how you keep your physique in shape, Hule is the world's number one complete nutrition. The Hule Black Edition is an amazing, amazing product because it is a great meal replacement.

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So that's Huel.com, Staples 15 for 15% off your first purchase of $75 more. Or be on the lookout for Hewil products in your local target. Ari, we go from Chicago to Tuscaloosa. Oklahoma visiting Alabama Alabama is a seven-point favorite at home Oklahoma must win this one to stay alive in the college football playoff race although you think maybe at 9 and 3 they get in

I don't I don't anymore I don't anymore The schedule looked horrific at the beginning the back end of it and we're talking about having to play LSU in Missouri at the end does not look as bad as it did before This is the big one.

Let me rephrase. I think they could get in at 9 and 3, but not having lost this one. I think they would have to win this one to get in at 9 and 3. They don't get to, I think this is a playoff elimination game for Oklahoma if they lose. Yep. That said, can Oklahoma beat Alabama? The last time we saw Oklahoma, they played at Tennessee, I would say that was their best game of the season. That was the best they looked offensively.

Defensively, they had the scoop and score by Armason Thomas that really kept them a float in the first half. Great kicking performance. So three-phase win for Oklahoma at Tennessee. But they play against Alabama, which Alabama to me, Ari, is a team that when they know they're playing somebody good, you get their best. And that's the thing. They're going to watch this Oklahoma film.

They're going to understand the stakes of the game. They know what they've got coming in. So I bet we see Alabama's best against Oklahoma. Plus, there's a lot of carryover from last year's Alabama team. I don't think those guys have forgotten losing to Oklahoma in Norman, which knocked him out at the college football playoff. Our Mason Thomas is playing, right? He's healthy.

Everything's okay with him. That's a good question. He got hanged up in the Tennessee game. Well, he got running for the touchdown. Yeah. But my understanding, or I think I remember that Brent Venable said after the game that he should be fine. So, and that was two weeks ago.

And these are athletes, baby. They get their bodies right. This is going to be a revelatory game because Oklahoma at times has been a very confusing team. You know, it started off hot. It reached some lows. And then it got a huge win at Tennessee. And I think that I'm having a hard time identifying, like, how capable this team is. I think they've unequivocally gotten better from, you know, year over year from last year.

But in terms of competing with the best teams in the sport, have they arrived there yet? And I cannot get the first half of the Tennessee game out of my head. Now, I understand that they ended up winning that game going away. They played very well in the second half. But Alabama is the most complete team that Oklahoma will have faced all year. Like even Texas, for instance, like Texas wasn't playing well at that junction. I'm going to lay the points here. I think Alabama is a touchdown better than Oklahoma.

I think they're probably 10 points better at home, payback factor, well-rounded team. I think their defense is going to cause some issues. Now, I don't think that Alabama is going to run away with this one. I think it might kind of look a lot like the LSU game did, where it was a one-possession game for a large portion of it, but it really never felt like LSU was in a position to win. and then they pull away and win by 10, 11, 12, 13, whatever, when the game's over. That's the way I see it playing out. I'm going to lay the points, and I'm going to ride with Alabama, who's playing really well right now.

Well, the way I think about Alabama is, we talked about this the other day. The Florida State loss, just throw that out. Complete fluke. It just doesn't resemble any other game they've played this season. So let's throw that out. Who's been able to come back on Alabama when Alabama's jumped on them? Georgia really is the only one. Georgia got back in that game and made it a game and could have won.

Remember, they dropped a pass in the end zone that would have put them in the lead in the fourth quarter. But nobody else has been able to do that. You know, the only, like South Carolina stuck with Alabama because Alabama messed around and Alabama just couldn't get going offensively. Alabama has been able to get going offensively against almost everybody else. now this is a really good pass rush this is probably the best pass rush at Alabama's seen so does that make a difference

does that bother Ty Simpson I don't know I do know that watching Ty Simpson this year he gives you confidence that he's going to get the ball out no matter how many people they got coming after him or he's going to know hey it's a six man it's a seven man rush I have a six man protection that means this guy's wide open he looks like that type of quarterback

who processes quickly who knows where his guys are, who knows where his checkdown is. And I think if you keep doing that, I think they're going to be fine. So I am with you. I will take Alabama to cover in this game. And I think Alabama just keeps on rolling for an SEC title game appearance. One thing. Alabama is not very good at running the ball.

They rank 120th in the country in average yards per rush at 3.5, and they're outside of the top 100 in rushing yards per game. And I wonder if Oklahoma can corral their run, their rushing attack, and then get after Ty Simpson, if they could do a little mucking. That's the one thing that would concern me about this. I'm going to stick with my Alabama pick. But, you know, as we are getting to the point in the season where we're trying to decide which teams are legit, real, real national title contenders and start comparing them to other

teams that are ranked higher, like if you wanted to nitpick, that's where I would did pick Bama, then I wonder if that's going to rear its ugly head at a bad time for them at some point. Maybe it won't. I don't know, but it's just something to acknowledge while we're picking it. Oh, it is. And I think, you know, you thought maybe Jam Miller would be the guy who carried that rushing attack. There have been games where he's been very good, but overall he's only averaging 3.7 yards of carry. And I think probably a lot of that is the quality of some of the defenses that they've played, but they also haven't needed it that much because there are things they can do in the past game.

There's a lot of high confidence passes they can have Ty Simpson throw to guys like Jeremy Bernard who can turn, you know, a short throw into a long game and maybe that has replaced some of the traditional run game. But it's interesting you bring this up because I do think as you go forward, when you get into maybe the college football playoff, they're going to need to. to do better in the traditional run game. I think they can beat Oklahoma without it, but I think some of these teams

they might have to play later that they're going to need it. You know what's really interesting is if you actually look at the top rushing teams yards per carry in college football this year, here's the top 10, Navy, 6.4, Oregon 6.36, Cincinnati, 599, Arkansas 598, Utah 592, Georgia Tech, 590, Michigan 584, USC 581, USF 580, and 10 Vanderbilt 575. None of the best teams that we perceive to be like the real, real best teams, maybe outside of Oregon are in that list.

And I wonder if passing and being unstoppable through the air is just kind of becoming the new style. Or if you feel like you cannot run if you were going to lose a game when it matters the most because of it. I don't know if the game has changed enough where you could say, hey, you don't have to be a great running team. I'm like, Ohio State's not a good running team either. Notre Dame is in the top 20 in yards per carry.

So is Texas A&M, and that's the, and Indiana's 12. So you have three teams there that, you know, people view as good enough to do it that are in the top 20. But nobody, it's not like Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, and all those are like the top five in America, like they've been in the past. It's kind of different this year. It is. I don't think, like I said, don't think Alabama needs it against Oklahoma. but they're probably going to need it at some point. So we'll see if that can improve.

Maybe that's Ohio State's Achilles' heel that we, you know, everyone that says Ohio State's the number one team in the country with no weakness. Well, they haven't, they've been running it better recently, but they don't have like Trey Henderson and Quintan John Jenkins are back. Yeah, it's not the same thing. C.J. Donaldson and Bo Jackson are good,

but they're not those guys. Ari, let us go into the American. Seems like there's one game every week in the, American that is sort of must see TV because they've got a log jam at the top. That's what happened when I believe is in first place. That's exactly right. Well, here's two of those teams right now. USF at Navy.

USF is a 10.5 point favor on the road. Ari, this seems to bake in the possibility that Blake Horvath will be out for Navy again. Blake Horvath is their starting quarterback. He got hurt in their loss to North Texas. and he didn't play against Notre Dame. And so I don't think this spread would be so big with Navy at home if Vegas thought Horvath was playing. Who do you think is the most talented team from top to bottom in the American?

USF. Me too. So if you watch that USF UTSA game last Thursday night, it was wild. USF was up 14 to 3 at the end of the first quarter. I don't think they'd actually run an offensive play in the quarter, and they're out 14 to 3. It's not just Byron Brown. I mean, they can do things on special teams.

They can turn you over defensively. That was they had a scoop and score, I believe. And so they are probably the most dangerous in terms of different ways they can beat you of these teams in the logjam at the top. And it's Navy, USF, Tulane, North Carolina. Texas and East Carolina all with four and one or five and one conference records. And East Carolina, remember, plays Memphis this week. So Memphis has two conference losses, but I think Memphis is favored. So it may be that we see the logjam sort of dissipate here.

Yeah, or it just becomes a logjam of two lost teams. I don't know. But like the, I think that I'm going to take USF here. Now, you never know to, especially without like Navy's best offensive player. like if he's not playing, and we don't know for sure, but if he's not, you know, that kind of stand corrected. Ben GMGM has East Carolina a three point favorite at home against Memphis. Oh, interesting.

Yeah. I think that it's hard to out athlete other teams in the same league. Like, I think this is where that bears fruit. Like, USF has out athlete. Did you watch the North Texas game? Like, it was like, an absolute. And like, I don't, and I, you always, it all went down in about a nine minute period of the game. And like, if you said just blew it open.

That Navy is just going to frustrate the hell out of, of USF and they're going to have a hard time defending them. I think I could buy that. But I just don't know if Navy has enough to stop them from scoring a lot. So I'm going to lay the points. I'm going to take the athletes like I always do and hope for the best. Well, we saw that to a very different degree in Notre Dame Navy last week. I also will lay the point. So give me South Florida minus 10.5 on the road.

And we'll see. Maybe the logjam will look a little more clear at the top of the American. I think we talked about this on Saturday night. My gut, R.E, says this is a USF Tulane conference title game. I think that's a pretty fair bet, pretty safe bet. Go from one logjam at the top to another. two of the teams buying for a spot in the ACC title game. Both of them have one conference loss.

Virginia is at Duke. Duke is a six and a half point favorite. Virginia just lost to Wake Forest. Duke just lost to Yukon. Virginia's loss was its first loss in conference play. Duke's loss was its first, or sorry, its fourth overall, but they still only have the one. conference play. That was to Georgia Tech.

Ari, I thought Virginia's lost to Wake Forest was one of those. It was kind of due because Virginia had lived very dangerously. It wasn't like they were just destroying the teams they were playing. They were kind of sneaking by the teams they were playing. And these teams weren't super talented. These weren't great teams that they were beating. So you knew they were due to fall at some point. Now,

part of the reason is Chandler Morris gets knocked out. He was sliding and got hit in the head. he was out for the rest of the game. Daniel Kalin had to come in, and it's a very different offense with Daniel Kaler, at least was with him coming in cold off the bench. It sounds like Tony Elliott said Chandel Morse is feeling better. And so there's a chance he plays in this game.

I think if he plays in this game, then Virginia has a chance. If he doesn't, I think Duke covers fairly easily. Yeah, I don't know if Duke's going to be covering anything fairly easily. although I would love to see the simulation where they win the conference and don't get into the plug.

Well, that's the thing. In ACC play, they're tough. When they get out of the league, it's totally different story. Has anybody ever lost three non-conference games and won their conference before? I can't remember. I don't know if that's ever happened

or I can't remember of an instance of it happening. This seems like a pretty big spread, and it seems likely that Morris is going to play. I'll take the points. And I wonder if Virginia's If Virginia's claimed of, you know, what happened there is, hey, we lost our quarterback in the middle of the game. We lost by a possession, you know, at the end of the road. I mean, it's not going to matter.

They're not going to have a CFP debate. But, you know, I don't know if I'm like, think that Virginia's cooked because they lost a wake. Now, maybe if you're a good enough. I just don't think Virginia is that good. Yeah. I think, I think there's a little regression to the mean here. So that, that's my thing is Virginia is probably like an eight and 14. and they're going to get there some way.

Yeah, and if they are an eight and four team, though, I'll still take close to a touchdown against another team that is about the same. Yeah, yeah. Well, let's pretty good about it. Prusa River points out, we should mark this one as a potential Mulligan pick on Thursday. I am going to take Duke to cover here, just because I am all in on full chaos,

because if Duke wins this and then wins out, then Duke... would go to the ACC title game with four losses. And if Duke wins the ACC title game, then, oh, my God, what happened? This is Duke's hard in the final college football playoff ranking. Duke's biggest remaining test. I think they play Wake Forest in North Carolina. Is there a lot of two games?

Right. Wake Forest will be tougher, but. Yeah. Wake Forest is at home. They're playing on the road, obviously, in a rivalry game. Who knows what will happen. But in North Carolina is won a few. So I don't know.

Maybe things will get weird there. North Carolina is definitely better. than they were at the beginning of the season. So, but this is, this is going to be, yeah, if Duke wins this game, Duke is in really good spot, a really good spot to go to the ACC title game, which really, really mucks some things up. You weren't playing around with the ACC calculator, weren't you? Were you playing around with the calculator?

I was playing around with the Big 12 calculator today. But I played around a lot with the ACC calculator on Saturday night. Look, there's a lot of ways Duke winds up in the title game. Duke just has to win. If Duke wins out, they're in. Are there two teams that don't face each other that control their own destiny? Like, is there a clean two team? Pitt can get in by just winning out.

Because Pitt plays Georgia Tech in Miami. Georgia Tech, I believe, can get in just by winning out. Yeah, but they still play each other. So it's hard to, there's not like Ohio State in Indiana, where it's like they're not playing anybody of consequence. Yeah, because Georgia Tech's losses to NC State. so there's no worry about the head-to-head there. Yeah.

Wild times in this conference. It is going to be fun in the ACC. So Ari is taking Virginia to cover. I am taking Duke to cover in this game because I am Captain Chaos. Ari, let us move on to the Coliseum. We're going to walk down the peristyle entrance. It is going to be a beautiful day in Southern California.

Iowa at USC. USC is a six and a half point favorite in this game. Iowa just gave Oregon all it could handle but ended up falling on a last second field goal by Atticus Sappington, who sounds like the main character in a Nathaniel Hawthorne novel. What do we think is going to happen?

The author of the book with Atticus Finch in it? No, that was Harper Lee. I didn't go for the obvious with Harper Lee. I didn't know how much of the way. I went for Nathaniel Hawthorne who wrote the Scarlet Letter. Hester Prynne was the main. main character and the scarlet letter well the female main character and she cheated on her husband she did i don't know she even cheated on her husband was a boyfriend no i think she just slept

slept with someone as an unmarried woman it's been a while and i hated that book so uh literary scholars feel free to to flame me on that all i know is that she she she did something promiscuous and then was had to like that's kind of a wild thing wild times back in the was 18 hundreds when that happened? 1700s. But, that's wild. Listen,

Kirk Ferrence was coaching the Hawkeyes when that book was published. I know. That's about the only connection I have. Can Iowa do to USC what it did to Oregon, R.A.? The weather is not going to be an issue here. That's not going to stop or slow down anybody's offense. But can Iowa slow down USC's offense the way it slowed down Oregon's offense?

You know, Iowa is always concerned. consistently tough. The question I have is if the wind came out of the sales a little bit after losing the way they did on Saturday at home. Because they would have been in a really good position if they were able just to keep Oregon from kicking that field goal at the end. And by the way, we've all gotten carried away with the Fernando Mendoza Omar Cooper connection because that was insane. It shouldn't think carried away. We've all freaked out over it and rightfully so because it was awesome. But like Dante Moore's pass on that final drive.

arrived down the sidelines was one of the better passes on Saturday and could have been a Heisman moment, maybe in another world. And he's still technically alive in the race. I don't know. Maybe if Oregon wins and beats USC and he plays well, he'll still have a chance to win it. But that, like, is a tough way to lose for eyeball. I would say Jaden Maiava has been a better quarterback than Dante Moore, though. Like, if we're talking about Big Ten quarterbacks to challenge Fernando Mendoza for the

Heisman, Jaden Maiava would be my team. Well, the reason why I bring that up and, you know, the Heismans, it's not necessarily what I wanted to focus on. It's more about the level of throw it took to beat them. And like if you are Iowa and you feel like you have that game one and somebody pulls that throw out of their ass and hits you on the sideline and a very, but here's the here's the problem like jane myava is not pulling that out of his ass. Jane myava does that regularly and also the part that that gives me pause here because I was thinking before I really sort of digging into this game I was thinking that I was going to be picking Iowa to cover this six and a half point spread.

Iowa gave up 7.3 yards of carry to Oregon on Saturday. USC runs the ball very well. Yeah. King Miller has done a great job. That line does a good job getting holes open for him. And the thing is, Oregon was dealing with a pretty tough situation at receiver because Decorion Moore wasn't playing. Kenny and Sadiq wasn't playing.

And I realize he's a tight end, but he's one of their main targets. and then they lose Gary Bryant, Jr. early in the game. So they were playing without their best receivers. USC is playing very much with its best receivers, and its best receivers are awesome. Yes. You know, anybody who's listening to the show all season knows that I've been, like, looking forward

and kind of painting a picture of a retro Pac-12 USC-Oregon matchup, and every single time I do it, you go, well, they've got to play Iowa. Like, I've overlooked this game on the, the schedule for the last month. And it would be pretty on brand for me to just continue to overlook it, right? So I'm going to USC to cover. And let's get ready for that retro West Coast football vibes.

See, I agree with you in this case because USC runs the ball as well as it does. And I was got to stop the run. They couldn't stop the run against Oregon. So unless USC's offensive line is, just that much worse than Oregon's offensive line, and I don't necessarily think it is, then USC's going to be able to run the ball

effectively enough, and it will open up the past game, which will be considerably better than what Oregon had with a bunch of injured receivers and horrible weather. So I think Iowa is in a much tougher situation to keep this game competitive

than it was in the Oregon game. Yeah. Jane Mahavah threw for 299 yards against Northwestern. and King Miller rushed for 127 yards on only 15 carries. Yeah, that's the part that scares me if you're Iowa. Like you, because Iowa doesn't do what it did against Oregon defensively. Iowa doesn't allow seven yards of carry against anybody. You know, the other thing that has to be pointed out to, Andy,

is that USC hasn't played a close game at home all year. Yeah, they do play really well in the Coliseum. They've blown out everybody at home, or won by multiple possessions, you know, all their tough games. You know, the loss at Illinois stands out, obviously on the road at Notre Dame, but they beat Michigan 31.13 at home. Is Michigan the better version of Iowa, or is Iowa as good as Michigan in your mind? I think they're very similar.

Yeah, but they already blew out a team like this at home once. Yeah, I, that's why I'm picking USC to cover here. I just think the matchup's bad for Iowa. Yeah, I agree with you. I think if this was a kinnick in bad weather, I'd probably be saying something very different, just like I did last week. But home field advantage matters when the climates are different, for sure,

on top of the, obviously. Well, right. And also the fact that USC can run the ball now. If USC couldn't run the ball very well, I'd probably be saying that Iowa has a chance to win this game. Yeah. But it's because USC's run the ball so effectively of late that it makes it very hard to pick against them.

So I'll take the Trojans to cover six and a half. And now, Ari, we head to Oxford, Mississippi, where the game is probably not that exciting. The circus around the game is a hell of a lot of fun. Lane Kiffin is the head coach at Ole Miss. Florida is coming to town. We all know that Florida wants Lane Kiffin to come coach Florida. We all know that Ole Miss fans are determined that they're going to keep Lane Kiffin. Florida fans are determined that he's going to leave.

old miss for florida ls u would like to have a new coach too i wouldn't be shocked if he's in the mix for that one too all right i i i think the ultimate lane kiff and troll move if i if i were lane kiff and i were trying to be the biggest possible troll i could be which i think a lot of times he is is on saturday morning i would go on game day and announce that i was signing an extension with old miss if he knew he was doing it yeah Yeah, or wait until after you beat Florida and then do it. Which would be more of a troll move. Yeah.

I think the troll move would be to wait until after. Okay. I don't think that's going to happen. Not because I think he's going to leave for Florida or leave for LSU or state almost. I have no idea what he's going to do. But I think he and his agents are smart enough that they can milk this for all it's worth for a little bit longer. Yeah, the longer you wait. the richer you get, I think, in the scenario.

So it's a fun thing to think about. But, hey, Andy, can I ask you a question? Sure. Who's starting a quarterback for Florida? That's a great question, Arnie. Billy Gonzalez, the interim coach for the Gators, was very noncommittled after the Kentucky game because he had benched DJ Lagway.

He had put in Tremel Jones Jr., which was something that was kind of bubbling for a while. And even before Billy Napier got fired, there was a little bit of a ground swell to maybe see what Tremel. jones junior could do now billy gonzalez did meet with the media on monday afternoon he got asked the question and he said essentially that dj lagway will take reps with the ones starting out this week of practice on monday and they'll go from there but to quote billy gonzalez

competition is great for everybody so i think it's dj lagway but it also seems like there'd be a pretty quick hook. You know what stands out to me about this more than anything? Florida's had a bad year. Florida has been wildly inconsistent. But Florida has continually been

a seven to nine point underdog in these games. 16 and a half is a lot of points. Did you watch the Kentucky game? I did. I certainly did. I think that's why. I think they might be on quit watch. Eugene Wilson

the 3rd has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Dallas Wilson was already ruled out for the rest of the season. So no matter who starts at quarterback for Florida, the availability of top receivers is limited. And I think that's probably what they are looking at. If we're talking about the fine folks at BEDMGM making the lines, they are looking at how would Florida score in this game? I'm going to take the points. You're getting sucked in. You're the way, same way I started it, right?

Like, just I'll take the points. I'll lose again. I've lost, I think I'm like 0 in 10 in every Florida game this year. That's so many points. It is so many points. And the question is. do you think Florida's defense can slow down Ole Miss's offense? And I would have said

yes, but I also watched the Kentucky game. Like Cutter Bowley carve them up. I don't want to use the keyword, but I worry about that with Trinidad Shameless and the Ole Miss offense and Kiwan Lacey

and a really, really potent Ole Miss offense. By the way, Ole Miss has an open date after this before they play the Egg Bowl. Is the entire Gainesville reporting contingent, like in Oxford already? No, but they're going to be. Because I know for a fact, like just based on my Ohio state beatness, that if this were happening on that beat, the half the beat would not even be in Columbus this week. Oh, listen, I know everybody probably scheduled their trip up a day or too early to Oxford to start laying some groundwork.

The scene at the yoga studio on Saturday morning is going to be something. You'll be a lot of badly dressed out-of-shaped people. And by that, any sports writers. Yeah, and new balances. Oh, I didn't even know if they wear new balances. New balances are cool now. I don't know if you heard. No, they don't wear the cool ones.

They wear the-oh. Yeah, or Air Monarchs, maybe. Monarchs, yes, dad lawn mowing shoes, the monarchs. Yes, that is... That is probably the most sure bet of this weekend for this game is over under Florida beat riders loitering outside the yoga studio on Saturday morning that Lane Kiffin is doing hot yoga in is four and a half. You just go, yes, fans, like how are you feeling?

You know, you do the color. Take the over. But yeah, maybe part of this is distraction. Part of this is, I don't know, just being a glutton for punishment and not being able to quit Florida, but 16 and a half seems like quite the spread. So I'm just going to close my eyes and take the points here. And it's a circus. I'm going to take Ole Miss to cover.

I watch the Kentucky game. I'm going to take Ole Miss to cover this one. Florida looked as much as they've looked in a long time. They did lose their best players. So they've got a quarterback controversy. Dallas Wilson's out. Eugene Wilson's out. The coach is fired.

They got blown out by construction. Kentucky. There's like not a single... They want it's on the other sideline. I legitimately don't even know what I'm doing here. Well, we've seen your record, so we know you don't know what you're doing. I'll take Florida to not cover. I'll take Holmiss to cover in this situation.

16 and a half points. I know it's a lot of points. Again, we'll see if they name a starter. You know, I don't know. Is that, was that really going to change it for you? I don't know. What would change? What would make you go?

like what okay since you brought that up what decision makes you pick old miss to cover because you're picking florida to cover right now what decision dj lagway or tremel jones makes you pick old miss to cover if the spread probably drops down to like 13 and a half which could happen okay all right all right that's fine i got you but i'm also at a place too where if it goes to 17 and a half then i'm definitely going to take the extra point in a half too and make it a four possession game I can't wait I can't wait to see I'm going to be on bed and GM all week just refreshing because I'm very curious to see what happens to this spread yeah I don't know maybe I'll just change my mind and be like what are you doing like I don't know I have introspective

moments I haven't showered today like you know I don't know maybe I'll that's not already talking about how dirty is that's already talking about how he hasn't really thought deeply about anything yet because I don't know I don't know man Ari we'll stay in the SEC going to Athens Georgia where we will be Texas at Georgia must win for Texas not a must win for Georgia though if they want to play the SEC championship game it probably is Georgia is a six and a half point favorite this is one of your guy Tyler Shoemaker's picks of the week is it it is you obviously haven't been reading his website i it's it's monday i usually do this

in the afternoon maybe i should read his website before we do this show and steal all of his thoughts i'd be much better at this he has a play for this game already oh he like he likes texas he likes texas because i thought i was going to pick texas for the past two weeks when texas beat vanderbilt i'm like i am picking texas no matter what the spread is against Georgia. And then they put this spread out and this is the hardest spread because it's not quite a touchdown. What do you think Texas is? Do you think they are a team that is flawed and has somehow managed to cover up their terrible offensive line and we're lucky to win some of these games that they've won? Or do you think that this is a team backed by a young quarterback who

is now thrown for 300 plus yards and three touchdowns and two consecutive games that is finding itself at the right time and is equipped to go into Georgia and win a game. So I don't think the offensive line is terrible. I think the offensive line was terrible. I think it has gotten better as the season has gone on. And I think that's part of the reason for the improvement. I think another part of the

reason for the improvement is Arch Manning developing as a quarterback and getting better as he gets more comfortable as the starter. Steve Sarkeesian getting more accustomed to calling plays with this line and Arch Manning. So the part he's changed sort of the parts of the menu

that he prefers because it's the same playbook but it's a matter of what you call and how you structure it and what or you call it in and i think he's done better as a season has gone on that said are so texas is coming off a win against vanderbilt where they jumped all over vanderbilt but then vanderbilt should have gotten that onside kick and if they do who knows like texas absolutely collapsed in that last quarter against vanderbilt Texas went to overtime the last time we saw them on the road with Mississippi State the time before that we saw them on the road

they went to overtime with Kentucky the time before that we saw them on the road they lost to Florida Ari if they play the way they played in any of those games including the one where they beat Vanderbilt they will lose to Jordan they have to play better than they played

in any of those games to win Georgia do you can play that game with three of their last four games Can we? I don't know. They were down 17 nothing or would have been down 17 nothing to Auburn if the refs didn't have their heads up their ass.

Like that's not a pretty- Okay. Would they have still won that game? If they'd gone down 17, nothing? I'm not sure about that. How many points do they score in that game? I can't recall, but I know. I believe they scored 20.

I believe that's more than 17. So. I know, but you're dismissing the vibe check. Like, that would have been a completely different game if that didn't happen. Don't argue that it wouldn't. Come on. Okay, so if Georgia played like that against Texas,

they might not win. I'm telling you right now, Texas has to play better than it has in all of those games we just talked about or it will lose to Georgia. Yeah. I'm just saying if you, if you,

I'm with you. I'm with you. And I'm really struggling with this because I get the spirit of what you're saying, but I'm not going to go use like they almost lost to this team three weeks ago.

It's not, it's not that they almost lost to this team, it's that they, those performances were very similar to one another. Yeah. Now, the order is different, like the order of the Mississippi State game and the order of the vandy game were flipped. Yeah.

But the end result was a very close game. And it's against this Georgia team, like, you could take a lead on this Georgia team. But they are explosive offensively, and there will be a moment where they come back. Yeah, Georgia is what better offensively than they are defensively, which I think actually lines up well for them in this game because I don't think you need to be like, 2018, Georgia, to win the game. And the thing is, like, Georgia's running the ball better. The one thing, like, Texas's defense has been good all season.

A little bit worried about what they were and at the end of the Vandy game and the Mississippi State game. The way they allowed, you know, Florida to move them online a scrimmage concerns me. But maybe that was just a bad game for them. Yeah. Because my worry is that Georgia is just going to be able to run the ball down there. throats. Maybe not. It may be that that was just an outlier because there have not, like I keep saying it, it was repeating itself. And that's why I'm talking about all of those games instead of just one or two. The only one where they were like that was Florida. So maybe that

was an outlier. So maybe I shouldn't be worried about that. Yeah. I just, I think Steve Sarkesian's a very good coach. I have respect for the players that they have on their roster. And I have not given up on them. So I'm going to take Kirby smart's a much better coach and I have respect for the players that they have on their roster. I know.

I'm going to take six points, six and a half points. I know you were. You can't quit them. You can't quit them. And as soon as I said, Tyler was in on him, you were like,

oh, no, got to take the horns. I was going to pick Texas from the beginning. So I was happy to hear that that confirmed what I'm going to do. But also, So if I'm wrong and Georgia wins by a hundred, like that also would not be shocking to me. Like if Texas is the is what they were, they are screwed. Like if they, if that is, you know what you're going to hear a lot of if that happens?

Uh-huh. Do they play a lot of dog noises in the game? Their fans make a lot of dog noises. They will literally bark at you. My favorite NFL team makes dog barks too. but my favorite team in the NFL also lost with the Jets on Sunday, so you don't hear it very often. Yeah, it's funny.

My dog barks pretty much nonstop when I'm trying to record. This is the one time she decides not to bark. I need her to bark now. So I have to do all the bark. Give me Georgia to cover. Yeah. I'm excited. We had to be on different sides of this.

I cannot wait to get to that game. It's going to be so much fun. The atmosphere is going to be incredible. And I've said this before. This is exactly what Texas wanted when it joined the SEC. This is exactly what the SEC wanted when they took Texas. They wanted this scene. Primetime ABC.

Hopefully it would be able to get it on YouTube TV by then, but I have no idea. Fireworks. The LED lights flashing. All of it. It's going to be amazing. It is going to be amazing. It's going to be an incredible scene. I hope it's a very good game.

I hope it's down to the last play which probably means that my pick is wrong and I'm not covering which also means you could still cover though if that happens that's true I could yeah yeah but I really do I hope we get every bit of drama that you want out of a game like this because this is this is sort of what it's all about

right here so I can't wait Ari's on Texas I am on Georgia we will find out in person we have to put a you know some other stakes on this game you cannot quit the horns you can't quit them i also there's one one thing that you're not taking into account picking this game before we get out of here what's that it's that texas a and m fans can't have anything ever you you're so you're married to an aggie so the the battered aggie syndrome just bleeds into you by us

and you're like, oh, of course Texas is going to beat Georgia, then they're going to beat A&M, and that's going to be... I didn't say they were going to beat A&M. What I did say is if A&M thought they were going to waltz. Then what are you even worried about? Because if Texas beats Georgia, it doesn't matter. Because if you think A&M is going to beat Texas, it doesn't matter if they beat Georgia or not.

All I'm saying is A&M thought that they were going to get to waltz the 12 and O and play a depleted, not fired up Texas team at the the end that they got to be alone in the limelight for the first time in however many years if you think that Texas is going to be walking into Austin, limping, battered, and broken, then you have not been following Texas A&M football long enough. I'm good saying, there are forces that play here that go far beyond, far beyond. I'm the one who's supposed to say it's supernatural when it comes to Texas A&M. I thought we were done with that. Okay, I'm just saying, like, if Texas A&M truly broke the spell, it can't be this easy, right?

Like, if there was a spell, it's still not that easy. Like, they still have to play a game against a Texas team that's good. Whether Texas loses to Georgia or not does not change the fact that Texas has really good players. If Texas eat Georgia, they step right in front of the line of attention in front of A&M, guaranteed. and that's what they it's not even about whether it plays out that way what they're upset about is why can't it just be our year at texas beach georgia on saturday texas a and m becomes the secondary headline in the state of texas producer river pointing out uh bet mGM has texasanem is a 19 and a half point favorite against south carolina this weekend at home we're not picking

that game but that's a lot of points eggs are great don't get them eggs but you know i think that you're going to have to take the state title out of Texas's cold, dead fingers. And I don't know if they'll be cold and dead by then. We'll see. We shall see. Who, boy, Athens can be hopping. And the Aggies have anything. Let us go to Provo, Utah. TCU at BYU is the most intriguing game in the Big 12. BYU is a five and a half point favorite in this game. I think we'd be using our three and a half point big 12 coin if tCU had not coughed it up against Iowa state over the weekend but b yu still in good position to play for the big 12 title of course they would have to play texas tech again which i don't think is something they really want to do

anyway but they're going to have to try if b yu wins out they will still make the big 12 title game but they have to win this game uh if you think oh i'm looking at b yu skis schedule, and they play at Cincinnati, and Cincinnati is one of the other one-lost teams in Big 12 play. So, BYU has a mulligan. BYU does not have a mulligan. BYU has to win out here, lest it get thrown into a tiebreaker with other teams. Now, that assumes chalk, which is a dangerous assumption.

But, Ari, I was playing around with the Big 12 calculator, and there are a lot of different ways you can go with it. But did you know that Arizona State's still alive? I do because you got excited when you were playing with it like a kid on Christmas and you were texting us about it. Have you looked at Arizona State's remaining schedule? I think that they're playing, aren't they playing a few of the teams that are currently ahead of it?

No. West Virginia, Colorado, and Arizona. So Arizona is the toughest game they've got left. If they went out and the tie break, come into effect? They're in a really good spot. So here's what you need for Arizona State to make the Big 12 title game against Texas Tech. TCU beats BYU in this game that we're talking about.

BYU then beats Cincinnati and UCF. Arizona wins out. Utah wins out. Arizona, I'm sorry, Arizona State wins out and Utah wins out. Arizona State would be the team playing Texas Tech. I didn't follow any of that, but let's, you know, yeah, it's there. I see it's there. It is there.

So, yeah, TCU probably out, but can be a major, major spoiler in this whole thing. So TCU smarting after a lost Iowa State, still very dangerous, though. I think BYU is going to really have to get after Josh Hoover in a similar way to the way they got after Baron Morton in the first half of the game last week. if they do that don't worry because BYU will be able to score some on TCU Andy it's not Texas Tech I think I'm confused about what the Arizona State thing is

is what tiebreaker comes into play it would be the opponent I believe it's the opponent combined win loss record okay because they haven't beaten anybody that's ahead of them they have beaten Texas Tech but Texas Tech won't

will probably be a one loss yes but in the cumulative opponent's one loss record beating the team that didn't lose to anybody else helps you a lot. Yeah. Okay. So where are we at with BYU? Still a very good team that

ended up playing a team that doesn't belong on its own conference and got its doors blown off or are you worried about BYU? I'm on choice A. I'm on choice A. I think BYU is still a good team, still capable of winning out,

playing for the conference title, although, again, I don't know if they want to play Texas Tech again after that. But everything's still in front of BYU. So they just need to get themselves together and bounce back and understand that TCU's defense is not a super roster like Texas Tech. It's not the same thing. Yeah, TCU would actually be a really exciting team if they didn't lose to Iowa State their last time out.

And the fact that they lost at home is kind of a real kick in the knackers. to put it. I'm going to lay the points here. I think BYU is still a very good team. I don't want our thought process of what BYU is to be clouded by what Texas Tech is. I think that

there was a clear line of demarcation over the weekend. And it was the first thought in my unfiltered takes column that's on on three right now of Texas Tech is unlike the rest of their league. But now BYU gets to play a team that's very much

the epitome of their league. And I think that they are better than that. So I will lay the five and a half gladly. It's in Provo. It's probably going to be cold. Check the weather on Monday. It's super useful for Saturday. And yeah, let's ride in Provo where the pizza buffet rang supreme.

Exactly. Exactly. By the way, Provo weather forecast for Saturday, high, 44, low 30. So it'll be very chilly when this game kicks off. For the folks from Texas, it might be a little too chilly. Who knows? But, yeah, I'm with you. I will take the Cougars to cover.

I think they're still pretty good. I think they just ran into a buzz saw on Saturday. But lots of intrigue this week, lots of teams in the playoff hunt, lots of potential disappointment for teams that can be knocked out of the playoff hunt, or joy as you stay alive for one more week. It's going to be so much fun, Ari.

I can't wait. We'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. Hey,