Andy & Ari On3 - College Football WEEK 4 PICKS | Michigan at Nebraska, Florida at Miami, Auburn at Oklahoma

Episode Date: September 15, 2025

It's time to pick the BIGGEST game of College Football's slate in week 4. While Andy has boasted a fairly good record the first 3 weeks, Ari has some ground to gain on the picks. Can Ari turn it around, or will Andy extend his lead? The fellas pick this loaded slate, but cover some news on the coaching carousel first. (0:00-0:40) On Today’s Show(0:41-2:19) BetMGM(2:20-11:37) Intro: Picks Record Thus Far(11:38-18:04) Coaching Carousel Update(17:02-18:05) Academy Sports + Outdoors(18:06-27:29) #17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah(27:30-30:08) Arkansas at Memphis(30:09-36:31) PaniniAmerica.net(36:32-37:59) Andy’s Pull in Panini(38:00-47:18) #22 Auburn at #11 Oklahoma(47:19-50:13) Tulane at #13 Ole Miss(50:14-1:01:27) #21 Michigan at Nebraska(1:01:28-1:10:25) South Carolina at #23 Missouri(1:10:26-1:19:55) Florida at #4 Miami(1:19:56-1:24:29) Arizona St at Baylor(1:24:30-1:33:35) #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana(1:33:36-1:33:55) Conclusion Games of the week include... Texas Tech at Utah (-3.5) O/U: 56.5 Arkansas at Memphis (+6.5) O/U: 62.5 Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5) O/U: 48.5 Tulane at Ole Miss (-11.5) O/U: 60.5 Michigan at Nebraska (+2.5) O/U: 44.5 South Carolina at Missouri (-13.5) O/U: 46.5 Florida at Miami (-7.5) O/U: 52.5 Arizona State at Baylor (-2.5) O/U: 59.5 Illinois at Indiana (-4.5) O/U: 52.5 What are your picks for this week's slate? Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Our show is sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoors! https://www.academy.com/c/backpack  We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/ClsA9uI6XpQ Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on three presented by BetMGM, we use those BetMGM lines to pick the games against the spread for week four. I had a great week last week. Ari needs to stage a massive comeback, but there are plenty of opportunities this week. Texas Tech, Utah, Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, Miami, Illinois, Indiana. This is going to be an incredible week of college football. We're going to talk through all these games. We're going to pick them, decide whether you want to follow me, whether you want to fade me.

We're going to follow Ari, fade Ari. Here we go. We've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We will be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join BetMGM, you'll get access to a variety of Parlay selection features like same game parleyes, live betting options, and more. If you haven't signed up for Bed-MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as in college football, CFB, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with Bed-MGM. Here's how that works.

Download the Bed-MGM app and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. make this college football season one for the history books make it legendary see bedmgm.com for terms 21 plus only u.s promotional offers are not available in new york nevada ontario or porto rico gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in the u.s call 8778 hope n y or text hope n y 4673169 in new y call 1 800 next step in arizona call 1 800 327550 in massachusetts call 1 8800 bets off in Iowa or 1-800-981-0023 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements,

rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for bed at MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by. I bet MGM, it is time to pick some games. And holy crap, what a slate we've got. We got some big, big 10 games.

Michigan going to Nebraska, Illinois, going to Indiana. We got some big SEC games. Auburn going to Oklahoma, South Carolina, going to Missouri. We got some big, big 12 games. Texas Tech going to Utah. We got Arizona State going to Baylor. All right, it is going to be a magical, magical week. Well, you, okay.

You need a magical week. Yeah. So I was in the middle of watching one of the big games on Saturday. I even tweeted at you. It was the Tennessee, Georgia game. And I said, how amazing is it that you and I get to watch this game with everybody else for work? And it's like, I was thankful. And I bring that up because there aren't a lot of days in my life that I dread.

This show is one of them. not doing it, the beginning of it. I've had a remarkably awful two-week stretch, and paying off debts was less painful than, you know, publicly having to be shamed for it. But like, man, I've been off to a really rough, rough start. I still think that I'm going to, you know, find my leg here and get going. And I'm still fairly confident that I'm going to beat you in the entire season. But I am way behind you.

and that's going to be, I'm going to have to go really, really good or hope for you to have some bad weeks because. It's a long season, but so last week I went six and three against the spread. Ari went one and eight. So I am now 17, 12, and one for the season against the spread. Ari is 10, 19, and one. And I got caught by the hook with Georgia, but I think you did too, right? Don't complain to me about bad beats right now.

I don't want to hear about that. I know. I was laughing when Georgia scored the touchdown in overtime. I was like, Kirby kicks the extra point anyway. Come on. I think the only, I mean, like I had Tennessee money line. It's like that looks like a loss, and it is a loss, had to pay the debt for it.

The idea, I mean, I feel like pretty good about the idea, you know, like. It was a great idea. Because if they make that kick, you're in there. You know, Oregon minus 27 and a half was a trap that I willingly put my foot in, knowing that it was the largest handle at BetMGM. And Oregon was winning 31 to nothing in the fourth quarter and had the ball inside the 10-yard line, brought their backup quarterback in,

and kicked the goal. This is for real. Like, we didn't even pick that game. Oh, that isn't one of these. Yeah, that was just my, my Saturday. I want to, I'll be honest with the R.E., I wanted no part of the Oregon Northwestern game. I was very glad we didn't put that on there.

I'm kind of bitter about it because in the middle of the game, the live line was 37 and a half, and I knew that it was a trap. entire time. And I was like, you know what? Well, they finally got there. Northwestern can't score. And I should have known better. And I should have done the middle there. But there was some pretty interesting results. And let me just say, first off, too, you know, we began the offseason. We had some pretty bad takes, you know, if you watched our Saturday show, you and I both had to publicly apologize for some of the quarterback takes. I know maybe

are my Miami take. You were a little bit higher on Miami than I was, has turned out to be bad. But there's one take that you're not high enough though yeah as it turns out that you and i both had that's actually true um and that is that this was going to be the most entertaining college football season that we had in recent memory and i think we're shaping up for that and i don't know what i i agree with you because i you know i put out the projected playoff and that graphic went out from the on three social accounts yesterday and i noticed today and i don't want to i really don't want to harp on somebody who had a really nice thing to say and an earnest thing to say. But they said, underneath that, this feels like we can actually guess at these now

that we have enough information to really know who should be in these spots. And I'm like, no, we don't. We definitely don't. You're throwing darts for the first six weeks, probably, right? Like week sevens when you can start really feeling good about things. It's like Texas Tech is your number 11. We don't know anything about how the Big 12 is going to pan out. fact, that's going to be one of the games we talk about today and might go a long way determining who's number 11 next week. And I know I'm not the one doing it. I used to do bubble watch with you every week. I'm not doing bubble watch anymore because it's the same thing. But I'm assuming that your graphics are changing drastically week over week. Like A&M probably wasn't in there last week.

A&M was not in there. Georgia Tech was not in there. I put Texas Tech in there because Iowa State struggle with Arkansas State, but also Utah could just hop in there if they beat Texas Tech this week. Yeah, it's nobody knows anything. I got A&M in there. I got Oklahoma in there. I have Auburn just outlook.

If Auburn beats Oklahoma, they're going to be in this thing next week. Yeah, right. And if Illinois loses to Indiana, then you have a new logo maybe on the first. I will bet right now I put the winner of the Illinois Indiana game. in there next week. A big game. So let me, you know what I was thinking of? So today I wrote a thought's piece on On 3 and it's free for you to go read right now. And it's 20 overarching thoughts that I have from the weekend. Andy, I don't know if you have a chance to go read them. But one of the things that I like occurred to me today, and this is outside of the gambling

and the future week I just had, but you and I talk about college football in a public forum, probably close to 10 hours a week between tweets and our shows and guest appearances on other people's shows like we are speaking about college football in a public manner constantly and like somebody tweeted at me today and it irked me and I don't know why he goes so when are you going to apologize for saying that Ohio State losing Seth McLaughlin was a big deal and I was like a do you remember saying that But I did. Yeah, it was a big deal. And Ohio State lost their starting center after they were incapable of getting a first down against Nebraska for losing their tackle.

I thought it was a big deal. And like, what is the proper conversion rate? Like, what's an acceptable conversion rate when you think about how many takes you and I have? How many takes do you think you and I have in a off season? Is it a thousand? I will take 50.1 percent. Like, I can deliver that. If you go back and like watch every single show that we did for the past year,

there are things that are going to be true and there are things that are going to be not true. But I don't think there's a great enough appreciation for how hard it is to project this game forward. And I don't think there's an appreciation for how much our jobs have shifted from reporting on what happened to being like the arbiters of the future. Like it's like the hardest thing to do in the world. And if I can get 50% of my things that I say correctly, while 100% of my takes are, based on the information that I have at hand. I can't predict what remarkable thing is going to happen in the future. And thank God for that, because that would be really boring.

I wish I could. I really do. My life would be very different. But I just, I had, I had shit picks the last two weeks because I started off eight and four, didn't I? Like, that was my, so I think about how that's been. Listen, I have faith in you to come back and I have faith in me to have a god-awful week at some point.

So don't work. last week, I think you did last year? I don't know. I had an 0 for 8 graphic one time. We actually picked 13 games that week, and I got, I think I got three of them right. But the ones we put on the graphic, we picked eight to put on the graphic, and I missed them all. The hardest thing, Andy, about this is that there's a difference between a winning gambling pick, and we have gambling experts come on the show to give you those picks because I don't

purport myself to be a gambling expert we give ourselves the analysis of the games that we know but obviously gambling is deeper than what we know about the teams but i also feel like idea wise you can still have a bad record in my opinion and give out good ideas like i was blatantly wrong about clemson like hands right right but was i we both we both missed that i blatantly wrong about tennessee no we weren't wrong about tennessee and the thing is like there was a there was a universe where I was going to be wrong about Arkansas, and it just so happened that the way the end of that game played out, they ended up losing by six. So I cover it. But another field goal from Ole Miss, and I don't. You laid the nine and a half in the Florida game and the

quarterback on Florida through five interceptions, they lost by 10. So like, was I wrong about Florida? Like, I don't know. I, you know, I'll let the listener decide that. Well, this was going to be like that Florida's spread, Florida Miami is a really interesting spread because it's a lot lower number than I thought it was going to be. All right. Well, why don't we just get in. But first, before we get to the picks, I want to let you guys know, the coaching carousel is open already, already spinning UCLA to fired Deshawn Foster on Sunday. Virginia Tech fired Brent Pry on Sunday. If you want a deeper analysis of that, you want to know who the candidates might be. I put out videos on Sunday for both of those. So check the On3 Sports YouTube channel.

You've got a UCLA breakdown. I'll talk about, hey, maybe the AD Martin Jarman had his keys taken away in this situation. I don't think he's going to be the one making most of the decisions for this next tire. I threw out some candidates. One other one that I thought was interesting that I saw from someone else is our friend Bruce Feldman at the Athletic. He pointed out Dave Miranda from Baylor as a potential candidate for UCLA. And this is not a which job is better situation. It's a maybe that job fits him better and he'd probably like to live in

LA more because he's West Coast guy. And the other one, the other name that that I saw in some other places that I didn't mention in that video that I think probably should be mentioned is Spencer Danielson from Boise State, San Diego guy, West Coast dude, been on the West Coast his entire career. So that's another possibility. But we'll see. Again, for Virginia Tech and for UCLA, I know they've already picked their interim coaches like UCLA's got Tim Skipper, who I think will do fine as an interim coach. I still don't understand why people don't call Coach O in this situation. Just call Coach O, hey, Coach O, come finish the season for us.

Yeah. UCLA, they should call Coach O to finish the season, and if he does well, just hire him. The most interesting thing about the UCLA job, more than anything, to me, isn't that Foster was fired? Because, like, that was, it was apparently, I didn't know it was going to happen two days later, but on Friday night, we knew that was over. You cannot get blown out by New Mexico at home. I mean, period.

No, but you can't get blown out by Old Dominion at home. That's why both those firings happened when they did. With UCLA specifically, though, their stadium is empty. They don't really seem to have a ton of NIL support. They play in a conference where other programs are far more committed to winning at football than they are. I don't know administratively if they're all. all that fired up about football at UCLA. And isn't there, like, sports department running on a deficit?

Like, I don't know, like, if you're a coach who wants to be successful, I don't even know if you can take UCLA. Like, there are somebody will take it. It's not a great setup. I think, honestly, other than my coach O idea, which they should consider, they're probably going to have to hire a coordinator who isn't a sought after name necessarily for these huge jobs and hope they get lucky hope they get lucky and they find the next great head coach because the guys who've been head coaches who fit who fit that profile aren't even going

to consider this job um i do think it is one other thing too isn't nico i amaliava like technically allowed to enter the portal now yes and how funny would that be i would do it if i were him why would you stay there. I mean, where would you go? By playing the rest of your games there. I don't, but who who's going to want him? I don't know. Like, where he would want to go. Here's what I do

think. Nico is not as bad as his tape shows this year. And I don't know, and I know that like Tennessee. He is what his tape showed at Tennessee. And I'm, and Joey Aguilar's making that look real bad. That is true. I think that his tape at Tennessee, though, is enough for him to get a starting job somewhere that gives him a better chance to succeed. He's in a unwinnable situation right now. And like, I don't know. Literally, they might

not win a game. Like, if I were him, like, you might have to sacrifice your NIL now and go try to find a place that can get you into the NFL. Because if he stays there and this is what we get for the next two years, he's not going to get drafted. So, like, Like he's not, this isn't just like, is he better off or he's clearly worse off having left Tennessee. But now like his whole like redemption arc of like, well, I'll make less money now, but I'll still put out good tape at UCLA. I'll be an entertaining story to watch on the West Coast. And I'll still get drafted in the first or second day of the NFL draft and make my money there. Like that plan is gone.

Like it's an unbelievably bad product right now. And I don't know how much of it is his fault. And I know that people like to, you know, dance and celebrate if you're a Tennessee. see fan at how much he's failing, but it's like actually sad to like watch. Like, I don't find it funny at all. And also remember, he probably didn't, didn't make these decisions. And we've gone, we've talked a lot about his camp on this show. And I stand by everything we said. Yep. So I stand by everything Pete Naco's, Pete Naco's reported. Those people have made themselves look incredibly stupid with every step of the way, and nothing has changed.

All right. We got a new pick, sorry. Unfortunately. Before that, though, I want to tell you about Academy, sports, and outdoors. This is where you need to go for all of your tailgate needs, all of your sports needs. You got kids playing sports. You had to hit up Academy for, oh, I don't know, I got to buy mouthpieces. I got to buy girdles, football girdles.

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Sports and Outdoors, visitacademy.com. Ari, we'll start where they're going to be little kegs and eggs tailgating. Not in the SEC. Big 12. Big noon in the Big 12 where it's 10 a.m. local in Salt Lake City for Texas Tech at Utah. Utah is a three-and-a-half-point favorite. Of course they're a three-and-a-half-point favorite. This is the coin.

This is the three-and-a-half plus and minus coin that we needed to mint for the Big 12, but we still haven't got around to it. Yeah. So this is great. This is a great game. It's amazing. Great game. And I think that this is the week where, like, Utah takes come home to Roost.

And I'm very interesting. Does come home to Roost have a good? a negative connotation? Yes. Yes. Come home to Roos usually has a negative connotation, but it's not just the Utah takes. It's also the Texas Tech takes because if we're going to pick two teams that people said,

okay, this is a team that did not really compete for the Big 12 title last year that we think will win the Big 12 title this year. It's either Utah or Texas Tech. Yeah, I just meant like we're going to figure it out right now. like these are what we're not because what if they play a one point game that gets decided on a weird call like we don't figure anything else that happens yeah that's true it's also the big 12 so we don't know anything about the big 12 ever but like I think that I'm very interested in your pick here because I know beyond the shadow of a doubt where I'm going really like I just like I know what I'm taking I gave it away I'm going to take three and a half points this seems to me like a coin flip and I'm going to take the three and a half but like Texas you're going Texas Tech yeah but I'm curious because your your prediction in the off season was that Utah would play for the big 12 championship and I know that you they could still technically do that even if

they lost but the other team I thought would they be playing is is probably Texas Tech so it sounds like you have a lot of emotional baggage to unpack here um Devin Damp here is really exciting Utah's got two of the best offensive alignment in the country they play good defense their coach is consistent as ever. Texas Tech bought a roster that should have better players across the board. And Texas Tech, by the way, not sure how much people have been paying attention have kicked the crap out of every single team they've played so far. And I like Utah, but it's funny because we're like, oh, one of those is a power conference. But that's UCLA and we kind of have to reevaluate that after the last couple of weeks. Yeah, Utah had a pretty ugly game for a long

time. And one of the rare bets I hit in real life this week was the under of the Wyoming game. I think it was like 9, 3 or 6 to 3 at halftime. It took them a while to pull away, yes. Once they figured it out, they pulled away. And like, listen, you can't overreact on clunker games. Ohio State was beating Ohio 13 to 3

at halftime, I think. Obviously, Texas had a rough day on set. I don't know how much you take away from some of these games. Wasn't Penn State struggling with Villanova for a while before they got that was the worst bad beat i've ever seen by the way i don't know if you saw that uh Penn state was like a 45 point favor and they were winning but

and you saw that one-handed circus catch in the back of the end one was zero seconds that was well i didn't have that thank god but i that would have that would have pushed me to my end this it like can i just say like frankly and maybe it'll just be another loss on i i don't know like i don't know i'm taking three and a half because i it's a safe mechanism. I don't know. Is Texas Tech great? Is Utah the team this year? I don't know. Is that bad podcasting? No. No, because I don't think telling the truth is ever bad. And that is the truth. The truth is this is a conference that we can't predict. These are two teams that are very different than they were last year who've not played anybody of consequence yet.

They've won decisively in every game they've played. They haven't played anybody of consequence because UCLA turned out to not be of consequence. So, I mean, think about this. And I think this comes down to Utah's offensive line led by Spencer Furnow and Caleb Lomu, the two tackles who are probably big-time NFL draft prospects. Fanoa is probably a first round or Lomu is moving up the boards. Texas Tech David Bailey,

one of the best pass rushers in the country, Ramello Heights, Lee Hunter on the inside. Can Utah enforce its will against that group? I don't know. That's where this game

is probably going to be won or lost. And this is what Texas Tech paid for because most big 12 teams don't have that level of talent on the D line. Most big 12 teams don't have

Utah's level of talent on the O line. And this is the one thing that I'm hitting a snag at, because it's very easy to say Devin Dampere is a magician, and he's really fun to watch. Those things are all very true. But if Utah cannot bully Texas Tech up front and they cannot run the ball down their throat, are they going to be able to pass well enough to win the game? And that, I'm not saying they can't.

But that would be my question. And I have that question. But here's my question, Ari, because Texas Tech's edge guys, they're very good at rushing the passer. How good are they when a first round offensive tackle is trying to grab them and move them out of the way in the run game? Because that is what we'll determine who wins. Not as good as they are the first three weeks.

That's for sure. Spencer Fennoe. he's got the he's got the goods man um i all i can say about this is that i cannot wait to watch it um this is like if you are a college football person this game is not for casuals this game is not for people who don't love college football this game is this is the big noon game i'm glad they're shining the spotlight on this thing because it is it's it's going to be so cool it really Because since Texas Tech started this roster rebuild, this is all I've wanted to see is them against one of the better teams in the Big 12. What does that look like?

Yeah. And there are like some teams at the bottom half of the AP poll this week, Andy, like Vanderbilt in Georgia Tech, in Texas Tech, in Utah, which are like all teams that are ranked in that vicinity because the AP poll voters don't know where to put them. Yeah. like because it's like when you do with Georgia Tech we weren't expecting this from Georgia Tech and now they're good like do you put them at nine look at the 17 18 19 20 and 16 16 through 20 or I would argue that Indiana Missouri USC also kind of in the same boat like they could be really good like those could all be playoff teams I do think it is interesting no idea and I'm even guilty of it myself but like Illinois is

ranked number nine and they would probably be in the we don't know what to do with you category and then there's like a glob of five teams between 16 and 20 that are like in the same boat of like you know the only one that's really that's really highly ranked that hasn't had to prove anything yet's Illinois while Georgia Tech and

Vanderbilt have better wins in Illinois does and now Illinois thought it was proving something against Duke but it turns out Duke might not be good so that yeah this is this is going to be fascinating so the other part of this It is the big noon game, but it's in Salt Lake City. So it's the big 10 a.m. game.

This is a sleepy start for both these teams. Now, obviously, Texas Tech is a central time zone team, but it's not, it's not going to be that different for them. Like, this is an early, early start for everybody involved. So I don't know if that affects anything. I think it'll definitely affect the fans in Salt Lake City because you don't get that much time to get truly lathered up before a 10 a.m. kickoff.

But I'm so excited for this. Ari, it's a coin flip for me too. It is. So I'm just, I don't have the coin minted yet. I'm going to mint the coin. But I'm flipping it in my mind. And I'm saying heads, Texas, tech, tails, Utah, it's tails. I'll take Utah to cover. Okay, good. I'm happy you're on the day. I don't want you to be on any of the same sides as me. Like, I need to make a comeback here. or or the my lead will stretch further yeah that's true i just i don't want the i don't want to go into the weekend without the opportunity that's true okay well we're on the opposite sides of this one i again are and i don't plan this beforehand so i don't know if we're going to wind up on the same side of these things every single time i make a pick you can just agree with me just to make it impossible for me to but like that's not the fun of the game you're going to go there's no fun in that all right what do we add next producer river

Arkansas at Memphis. If you watched Arkansas against Ole Miss, this offense is electrifying. If you watched Arkansas on its first two games, the offense was even more electrifying. They hung 50 burgers on both their opponents. Talen Green is awesome. The question for me is,

is this Memphis defense better than the Ole Miss defense? And I think the answer might be yes. Because remember, the Ole Miss defense the week before made Kentucky's offense look, I don't know, serviceable. So I think Arkansas will face its toughest test in terms of can they keep moving the ball the way they have. Arkansas is averaging like nine yards of play. They are destroying people. Memphis only gives up about four years. yards of play. So I think there's going to probably be some compression to the

mean, if that makes sense. Yeah. I'm looking at like advanced statistics behind the scenes here. And like I always do when I'm making the picks, they don't guide me. But Tyler Shoemaker has this as a seven point spread. So like that pretty close number and it's not a play. Oh, I think the question is, is did what you see from Taylor Green in Arkansas, is that fool's gold or is that like is Arkansas much better? I think I think Arkansas is good on offense. Like what I think, but now they got shredded by Trinidad Shambliss and the Ole Miss offense. I don't know what to make it that either because Trinidad Shambliss may be really good. Yeah. So I don't want to, I don't want to go in assuming that Memphis is just going to run

down, you know, run up and down the field on them. Yeah. I think what I think is this is going to be is a lower scoring game than what we saw from Arkansas and Ole Miss last week. I still think Arkansas is going to win, but I will take six and a half points. You can give me six and a half points, and I will take it. So give me Memphis to cover in this room. I was leaning towards Memphis, too. I would have liked to get to seven, but I'm not going to depart from my viewpoints on Arkansas's defense, I think. I think I'm going to take the points too, Andy.

All right. Well, we are on the same side of this one. It's okay. Don't worry. We'll disagree again. I know one thing we could also agree on Ari is our love for our friends at Panini. Want to rip a pack right now? Yeah, please.

Come on. So the last pack we ripped on the show, by the way, I was going through it again. I realized I pulled a Quinn Ewer's card. And the first thing I could think of when I walked past that card was, was Miss Me? See? I saw a lot of Texas tweets on Saturday of, like, pictures of Quinn Ewers and people saying this fan base didn't deserve you, number three. All right, let's see what we got. We got Brian Branch, who was one of my favorites at Alabama, a very good Detroit lion. Jonathan Taylor, excellent former Wisconsin running back. Never heard of this guy. Producer River, do you know who that is? He wore number 16 when he played for the Colts, or excuse me, 18 when he played for the Colts, 16 when he played for the

balls, uh, Payton Manning. Uh, another guy never heard of. Oh, this is a one of one, Patrick Mahomes right here. So it is, it is number, it is numbered one of one. You just hit a 101 Mahomes? I did. One of one. Dude, step up and put it towards the camera, please. And be careful with it. Hold on. I got to get some light on it. buddy buddy put that down very gently and go get a top loader okay i got the top loaders are on my desk i will get it top loaded as soon as uh yeah just put that down okay okay we're gonna get accused of like you just hit a one-on-one mahomes yeah i did that's a nuke yeah just what the hell pinini send me that box got a numbered Luther burden right here how about this numbered autographed

dexter manly i remember dexter manly playing this is really cool see that's the rie is going on you know arey is deeply into the hobby i am still deeply into the nostalgia of this so being able to get an autograph of a guy who i loved watching as a kid this is incredible Dexter Manley was the man I'm just like comping that Mahomes card while you do that by the way vestige vote Joe Jackson

Khalil Mollings Arronday Gadsden the second from Syracuse now with the Chargers and our guy Jack Sawyer who had the strip sack in the Cotton Bowl on the way to the national title what do we think are you how are we doing on that um it's illuminates mahomes one of one

you need to just be careful with it uh i don't think i got many finger oils on it so um so patrick mahomes just recently started signing again he it's been a three year or four year gap since he's been signing again and he's been in pinini one and some of the products that you know have been coming out at the tail on a twenty 24 and you have 20 25 product there. Yep. In Mahomes, autos,

it doesn't matter that they're like fifth year, six year cards. How many years has you been in the NFL now, seven? Yeah. Those cards are all like four figure,

$4,000, $5,000. So, like, I'm not going to, your card doesn't, isn't $5,000, but you might have a four figure card there.

Let's go. Let's go. Yeah, that I was going to show, like, my new receiver pickups, but now I'm like ashamed of myself. Like I thought,

Well, I will have to send this off to get graded and make sure I'll have to be very careful. And while we're recording the PIC show while I'm on one of my diatribs, take a picture of it under the light and send it to the group and then River can present it for the screen. Because you always rip packs and most of the time when you're ripping packs, like you're not hitting major, major value cards. Like if you hit one, we got to like. Yeah, I'm trying not to touch it. That's the problem. So I don't want to scare you. You can touch it.

Just get it into a sleeve. Here's the two cards that I have of two receivers I like. These are fractal 2023 NeNe one footballs that came encased patch autographs of Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnson. Quentin Johnson has a big game tonight. I think he's really good. You know, people said he had the dropsees, but I invested in him quite a bit in the offseason and I was pretty happy to see how he did in the first game of the season. And look at this, River. This is a 2024 contenders optic.

Joe Milton Otto in a Patriots uniform rookie card red number to 175. I just wanted to show you that because you're a Bazooka Joe guy. I have. I sent River a photo the Mahomes card. So we'll take a look. And I'll tell you right now, visit pininiamerica.net to start your collection. And maybe you can just have that experience that I had just now. Dude, when you're hot, you're hot.

Like, you're hot in the games. You're hot in ripping packs. You're hot. Well, I check with Brett Mc Murphy. So he's coming back on Wednesday to do more trivia. Yeah, I do need to come back in that one because you beat me last time. Yeah, I wish I would have lost by a million because it ruined my life. Look at this.

You're a nostalgic guy that's a Roger Craig. Oh, I love Roger Craig. Legacy's out of National Treasurer's Patch Auto. So I was watching the 49ers Saints game yesterday and Kyle Eusecheck caught a ball. And I just saw the 44 jersey for the 49ers and thought, Tom Rathman. The 49ers, when they had like T.O. had the best uniforms ever. The 49ers have always had the best uniforms. ever. So I know this ad is going a little bit longer in the promotion of this river. Put that car. Yeah. Anytime you have a one of one of what people think is the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, you want to protect that. What kind of table is that? Is there like a crease in the wood there? Just get it off the table. I'm kidding. It's off the table. It's sitting atop a slab that contains a Jane Daniels card.

We just pause the recording of this so you can tweet about like hitting this. This is like this is a like this is. like i i i will tweet it after the show producer who's like we got 9000 more picks to go okay all right let's go this is it pinini america dot net to start your collection day uh all right all right i can't even i will be attending on saturday you hit a puka nakua gold rookie last year out of a pretty premium product that was a select i think yes and then now you have this yes this is my thing why you get the why are you hitting one of one mohomes on the on the show. I don't know, but I'll take it.

Because here's the thing. One last thing, I'm sorry. This is my thing and I get excited about it. It's fine. It's fine. Andy, the reality of it is, and I don't know if this is bad for our sponsor. Well, don't say that. No, no, no.

Listen, it's important. When you rip cards, there is an inherent risk involved because if cards were easy to hit, they wouldn't be valuable, right? Right. So, like, ripping packs at times cannot be the most entertaining thing on an ad. So, like, when you actually hit something that people are dying for, naturally, that's a pretty awesome, like, you couldn't have planned that better. And, like, and trust me, Panini isn't juicing the boxes, because they send me boxes all the time. No, the last pack I ripped, we didn't get anything we were particularly excited about. And, like, there's no better feeling.

That feeling right there is, like, what I'm addicted to. Well, I'm, I'm pumped. I'd like to hear what this thing winds up being worth. And I'm going to do a little homework after the show. We got to keep making picks. All right. We have to talk about the game that I am going to this weekend. I will be in Norman, Oklahoma for Auburn at Oklahoma.

This is a game. Are you and I have had circled all off season because of just the stories around it. The whole idea of Jackson Arnold, who Oklahoma threw away. like trash coming back to Oklahoma with a squad because Auburn this year ain't Auburn last year. But Oklahoma this year ain't Oklahoma last year either. John Mateer has been everything they hoped he would be. Ben Arbuckle has been everything they hoped he would be. The offensive line is better. Michael Fasusi is everything they'd hoped that he'd be when they signed him. It looks like he's going to play.

He missed the Temple game with the ankle injury that he suffered against Michigan. I'm talking about their freshman left tackle, of course. But I think he's going to play. Ari, I am so excited about this game. Oklahoma is a six and a half point favorite. I'm actually a little surprised as that high. But it's tracking similarly to the line in the Oklahoma, Michigan game from a couple weeks ago. You had a one-on-one Mahomes.

Um, the, uh, what's one of your, um, children is your favorite. Well, that depends on the day. Like Dion Sanders, I do have child power rankings, and that list is very fluid, and they know it. We keep them posted daily, and we keep them apprised of when they have a chance to move up and, you know, if they're falling. So we never let them get too comfortable. I don't know. I love them equally. They're my children. This is how I feel about this game because you and I have, you know, we don't hear about our good takes. We only hear about the bad ones. We had good takes that both of these teams would be much better than people thought, right? Right. I was very high on Auburn. You were very high on Oklahoma. We were both generally excited about what they could be. And I'm going to stick with the spirit of that in this show because I want to reflect that.

You and I both were high on both teams, but you were more high on Auburn and I was more high on Oklahoma. So from the way that the line has moved, I believe it opened at four and a half. It's down, it's the six and a half. So I'm not getting the best number. We're going to find out, much like in the Utah, Texas Tech game, like which team is for real and which team might have some more warts than we thought. The difference between that game and this game is both these teams have a really good out of conference win already. That's right. That's right.

But now we're in the SEC and we're going to start to figure out which team is actually poised to make a college football playoff run and which team might, you know, be one year away. I am just going to go with the home team with the better quarterback. And I know that that is a lot of points. I thought the spread would be more like three and a half. I think that the fact that it is a little bit larger makes me feel like marginally more comfortable with the gap that Vegas sees between these two teams. And I think that Oklahoma gets it done at home and wins by a touchdown. It's interesting because I think I thought of this game all off season as a potential loser leaves town match between. between Brent Venables and Hugh Fries, and it's not that.

It's not that at all. There's no desperation for either team in this game. Like, if a team goes into this game and loses by two, there's no shame in it. It doesn't mean you're not going to go beat some other people. Like, if Oklahoma lost this game by two, Ari, would you be more or less confident in Oklahoma's ability to beat Texas? I would be as confident, I think.

I don't think, right. I don't think it would change anything. But I also think that you're, you've been around the SEC a long time. And I know Oklahoma is a new member, but they still have the spirit of the teams that are in it. They would be vastly disappointed and you would hear a lot of negative Venables talk still. I still think that like he would right back in the doghouse. Like I don't think either one, like Venables or freeze, whoever loses this game will be hyper criticized next week. Here's the difference.

I actually think, and maybe this is a column. I think that Hugh Freeze has less pressure in this game because Hugh Freeze's benchmark for success this year is not as high as Oklahoma's. Like Oklahoma expects... Well, Hugh Freeze's schedule is not as hard as Oklahoma's, although they do obviously have some hard games. Like, Hugh Freeze made a mistake in the offseason

and saying that if we make a bowl game, that's good. But I do think that eight wins at Auburn is a job-saving season, and I think an eight-win season, I guess depending on what it looks like at Oklahoma, could have Brent Venables in a tougher situation. I think Oklahoma is fine with eight wins because the schedule is so freaking hard. Yeah. I also don't think, I'm not sure either team is headed for that.

I think both these teams are headed for better than that, though I will say, like, who does Auburn play next week? Texas A&M. So they've got to be very careful because this is a really tough two-game stretch. Like, you probably have to win one of these two if you want to make the playoff. And if you lose this one, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, I like, I like what we've seen from Jackson Arnold. I like their receivers, uh, are productive. I like that. Eric Singleton got targeted a ton of the last game. He came out with a hip pointer. He heard himself right at the end of the game against South Alabama. So I don't know. I mean, I'm assuming he's playing. I don't know how. If he's going to be completely effective. Um, hope he's playing. If Auburn wins the game outright, not sure I would be surprised by that.

Um, if Oklahoma wins by 12, I don't think I'll be surprised by that. I'm going to go with the team that I said in my bold predictions would be a playoff contender because I think you need to win this game in order to do so. And I think that Oklahoma, like, it's crazy. I like Oklahoma's quarterback better, but I also know that Jackson Arnold might have something more in the tank. Um, I think Oklahoma's defense is nasty as hell. like if Jackson Arnold and them and his team is going to cover the spread or win this game,

you're going to have to show something today that maybe you haven't been put in a position to have to show yet. And I just, between Oklahoma's defense and their quarterback, I think they're a touchdown better still. So the question here is what will Jackson Arnold do in this situation? This is Jackson Arnold's chance to prove, obviously, that he is better than what he's showed in Norman last year that it shouldn't have happened the way it happened. And the thing is, like, nobody at Oklahoma is going to say, we shouldn't have changed quarterbacks because they are going to be thrilled with John Mateer. And I feel very comfortable saying that.

Like, they're going to be thrilled with John Mateer. The rest of the season is going to go, and they're going to be glad they have John Mateer. But I do think they might come away saying, we should have. have been so mean to Jackson Arnold because he's actually pretty good and maybe he was in the worst possible situation last year with an offensive coordinator who was not he kind of lost his fastball as a play caller with an offensive line that wasn't very good with receivers that all got hurt like all of that stuff it matters yeah i am uh it's it's hard to pick

these are hard games this week i i do i do think rie that if if you're going to give me six and a half points i'm going to take them okay give me auburn to cover here i'm not i'm not supremely confident in auburn like i'm not going to go auburn money line i'm not i'm not i'm not that confident but if you're going to give me that many points in a game that i think should probably be about a three-point spread, I'll take the dog. Yeah. And if it opened at four and a half, it got better up to six and a half. So we'll see what the line is later on in the week. And maybe I'm completely wrong that that Oklahoma defense is just incredibly nasty when

Fasusi's playing, their line is unstoppable. It may be, it may be that Oklahoma is the next big thing. Yeah, I doubt that Auburn is going to be able to push Oklahoma around the way they pushed Baylor around. And then that's going to put some pressure on Jackson Arnold on the road in a stadium that he struggled with with an entire crowd charged to root against him. I think that there's a lot better for him to overcome. I think he can overcome it. I like both of these teams. But I like too that we both picked on like the side that we were hard, like more confident in offseason. Yeah. Because it's like I think we both aren't sure who's going to win this game. But we have a lean.

your lean is toward Oklahoma my lean is toward Auburn and I think that works I think that works so yeah I'll take Auburn to cover you got Oklahoma to cover I can't wait I'll see you guys in Norman

Ari let us move to a big game with potential CFP implications probably for both teams but definitely for one of them definitely for the visitor Tulane and Ole Miss

this is now an 11 and a half point spread Ole Miss favored by 11 and a half Tulane's 3 and 0 and they've beaten Northwestern and Duke. So two wins against Power Conference teams already. Ole Miss, also 3-0. Tough one against Kentucky. Tough one, probably tougher than they thought against Arkansas.

But again, they were playing a backup quarterback. This was a fascinating situation because Trinidad Shameless came in and did a great job, but also hurt his hand in the middle of the game. So Austin Simmons, the starter who had an injured ankle, comes in, and it was clear how hobbled he was. But he still came in and threw a touchdown pass. Yeah. And then Chambliss came back in, right?

Yes, he did and was great the rest of the way. Tulane looked pretty good on Saturday. Tulane was pretty dominant against Duke. And so here's what I'm thinking is going to happen. I think that this Tulane offense led by Jake Retzliff is going to have a day against the Ole Miss defense. Because so far, everybody who's played the Ole Miss defense has looked better than... You thought they would. So I think they're going to score some points.

Are they going to be able to stop Ole Miss enough to win the game? I don't know about that. But if you're going to give me 11.5 points, I'll take those points. Yeah, I think that if you look at the actual psychology of this whole thing, which is Tulane is unbeaten. They've got Jake Ratz laugh. They just beat the crap out of Duke. They look really good.

like the actual like thought process and the lean that you would have just like from a like emotional standpoint would be like wow 11 and a half is a lot of points uh i really really like too lane here and i'm going to go against that maybe i'm just like part of the reason why i'm having such a tough few weeks is because i'm overthinking these things a little bit but old miss to me is a team that i feel like has not played a good game yet and i don't know if that's because old miss is that's who they are uh defensively or if that they've been kind of you know they got sucked into the Lexington Matrix and they were suffering a few injuries and they just haven't played sharp football. But I think Ole Miss is going to score a lot.

Yeah, the other thing is that maybe that Arkansas's offense is just awesome and does that to everybody. We don't know. But it does seem to me like Ole Miss's defense is going to give up some points. So maybe that gets fixed and they just blow the, blow the doors off Tulane. But I think Tulane's going to score some. Yeah, I think this game's more of like a 42-27 type game, probably if I had to guess. Right, which would be an Ole Miss cover. You know, that's what I'm going to pick. I'm going to pick that.

All right. All right. All right. He's got Ole Miss. I've got Tulane. Now we head to Lincoln, Nebraska. But you know who doesn't head to Lincoln, Nebraska? Sharon Moore.

Michigan at Nebraska. Michigan is a two and a half point favorite on the road. So here's the situation. This is how the suspensions work now. We talked a little bit about this earlier in our early game preview, but in case you didn't hear that. So back in 2023 when Jim Harbaugh was suspended for six different games, he was allowed to coach at practice the entire week and then just had to miss the game.

Sharon Moore suspended for the Central Michigan game and the Nebraska game. Sharon Moore got to coach at practice the week of the Central Michigan game. His suspension began that day. So at midnight on this past Saturday, September 13th, Sharon Moore's suspension began. It runs through 1159 and 59 seconds of this Saturday, September 20th. So he's not allowed around the team at all this week. So he is not helping them prep for Nebraska at all.

Biff Pogh is their interim coach. Biff Poggi said after the game on Saturday that essentially he is Sharonmore's caddy, Sharon Moore is Tiger Woods, and Bif Poges is going to make sure the clubs that Shronmore wants played get played. That said, we've not seen this before. A big game involving two major schools where one of the coaches is just out for the entire week. And I find this very interesting, Ari. What do you think he's going to do this week?

Would you, like, if you were a coach, would you be... Go insane. That's what I think he's going to do this week. I'd like go to, like, get an Airbnb in Bermuda and just lay by the beach for a lot. I don't think he can do that. I don't think Michigan would appreciate that. Why? I think they want him in town just in case there's some crazy stuff.

If crazy stuff goes on, he's not allowed to be around the team. I don't understand. He still want to be close by. Like if on three was like, hey, Ari, you're suspended for a week and you can't look at our website and you can't be around our website and you can't write or talking to a microphone, like I would go to Vegas and just like lay by the pool for a week. Although people probably don't celebrate. Andy, going back to the Tiger Woods thing, because I think it's interesting. Caddies are actually really good at golf when they play, right? How do you do the Tiger?

They're better than us at golf, but not as good as the guys that they caddy for. Yes, here is caddy, but Tiger Woods is still swinging the club, and he's there. Like, Tiger Woods isn't going to the course that day. So, like, and you can't always, it's like anticipating the lie. If he's not there to tell you what club to use, like that's the thing. thing that's interesting to me, like the club selection is dependent on the lie of the ball. Well, and here's, here's

the thing in the football coaching context where I think Michigan is in a little bit better situation than maybe some other schools would be just because of the way their coaching staff works. So Chip Lindsay's the offensive coordinator. Chip Lindsay's been a head coach before.

Chip Lindsay was the head coach at Troy. So he can, you know, he can help shoulder some of that burden as well. Wink Martindale has been around forever. He's been an NFL defensive coordinator for years. He's seen almost everything. So those two are not going to be intimidated by this situation whatsoever. It's not going to bother them.

The Patty thing is a bad analogy because you don't know what situations you're going to be in. Hey, Biff Pogie ran a hedge fund. He wasn't a professional analogist. I actually think that he should have gone with a hedge fund analogy. That would have been a better analogy. Yeah, I mean, like, Michigan, like, I'm not even making a joke, don't take this a jab. They've had a lot of practice at this, you know, like, just like being like, I mean,

they have been out of sorts a lot on game day the last few years. And I know that personnel and coaches have changed since that happened. But, you know, it's not like this is the first time they're encountering it. It might be the first time they don't have their coach in practice, but they've had to make things, I mean, Sharon Moore is the head coach there because he stepped in well because of a suspension. So, like, it's, I just don't know how many. Points you think that's worth.

Well, and that's the thing. I thought even if Sharon Moore was coaching that this was a pickum. So you're giving me points in a game I thought would have been a pickum even if he'd been there. It's still on the road. And again, we don't know what Nebraska is yet. We saw Nebraska against what we think is a pretty okay Cincinnati team. They did struggle a little bit with the godfather Dante Corleone. Michigan's going to have some some dudes.

up the middle. But I'm not sure Michigan is as good on the lines of scrimmage this year as we're used to seeing from them. I think Oklahoma made their defensive line look not great. I think their offensive line really struggled against Oklahoma. And obviously, they've got some injuries there. So I think this may be, and again, we talked about this with Nebraska. You know, we talked last week when the Matt Rule halftime speech from the Akron game came out, you can win the games you're supposed to win now that was step one that was the thing that Nebraska struggled with mightily throughout the mike riley era throughout scott frost era it seems like they got that part turned around step two win the toss up games this is a toss up game this

is a less than less than three points spread win the toss up games nine wins is the kind of game you got to win nine wins seasons are predicated on winning these games yes yes you win your toss-up games this year, with this schedule, you are looking at maybe being a nine-win team, maybe even being a playoff contender in November. Yes. Okay. I don't know if it's just my mentions because Nebraska and I are familiar with each other, but a lot of chess puffing the last few weeks out of Nebraska people, and they're excited

and they're pumped. A lot of Dylan Raola is not getting a tough respect, hearing a lot of that. in the chat. Well, you don't get it beating Houston Christian. You get it beating Michigan. So you want the respect that you think he's entitled to now. Go do it this weekend. Trust me.

And this is a promise. Andy and I will be waiting on Saturday night with smiles on our face to talk about how awesome Dylan Rayola was if he is awesome against Michigan on Saturday night or Saturday afternoon. So like, you know, before we crown, hey, you guys are idiots. You don't know anything about the quarterback position. And you do have plenty of evidence that shows that we don't. But an abundance of evidence that we know nothing about quarterbacks. He is who you say he is.

And we are haters and, you know, all those. Go show me this weekend. I would love to see it. And here's the thing. If he does show you, this is one of those weekends that they may look back on years from now and say this is where it turns. This is the transition. Yeah. And this is what they wanted when he signed.

This is what you get when you sign. And I go back to something that Dylan Riala said at Big Ten Media Days about how special would it be? How cool would it be if we're the ones who turn it? We're the ones who bring Nebraska back. This is how you do that. You win games like this. Like I don't care. I'm not saying you've got to go out and beat Ohio State.

You need to be able to win games like this. And then work your way to beating Ohio State, which you can do. but with the games like this first when uh Dylan Riala committed to Nebraska I wrote a call we were at the athletic at the time were you there yeah I think you were

yeah we were at a we were oh I wasn't I was gone I made a frown face for people who weren't watching the video uh my friend left me behind and then he came and rescued me like uh like one of the like boats on the Titanic uh

but like the We were at a summit, a work summit, and I was in downtown Chicago with all my co-workers at the Athletic. And when Dylan Rayola committed to Nebraska, I was at Portillo's. And I ran from Portillo's to my hotel room and wrote a column about why committing to Nebraska is special. I think it even ran in the New York Times. And the premise of the question of the column was, a five-star quarterback could have gone to Ohio State and gone to Georgia. very good and been the next one in line for being the guy at those places who have guys every year. Or he could go to a place that is near and dear to his family. He could be responsible

for the turnaround and he could accomplish something that never was even a possibility at those other places because they don't need to be saved. And I thought that was awesome. I thought it was a cool decision and I thought it was great for college football and the fact that we've talked about Nebraska as much as we have in the time since is a testament to that decision. If it's going to turn, Saturday is when it turns. So we'll see. We'll see. We'll see if they do it.

All right. Who you got? Who you got? I don't think they're not good this year. I think that they're a year away. I think Nebraska has a chance to be good, like, is good this year. I'll take point. I also will take Nebraska to cover, and I appreciate the two.

and a half points because I would have taken them without the two and a one once. Yeah. Well, then take a money line. Nah. That's how I catch up because there was a nice comfortable lead against you. I'm not going to just start. Because I'm one and eight last week. I should be, if I would have taken the point, wait.

Yeah, if I would have taken the points, I would have been two and seven. That would have been better. But I put my, my beanbag on the table and you're just not willing to do it, I guess. Okay. It's not. You know what? Nebraska money line. Whoa!

there it is. I think they're going to win. I think he's good. I think they're, again, I still stand by what I said about like whether he'd be sensational. But there's not a lot of people who are sensational. I still think he's very good.

He's off to a great start this year. I don't think that Michigan has a defensive line that they've had in the past. I don't think their offense is functional quite yet. And I think Nebraska is a more complete team at home. Give me, I'll take him to win. Yeah. Nebraska plus 1.15.

So not like the. Yeah, no. It wasn't like a money line. It's a two and a half point spread. but yes when i when i like it i like it say it with your chest when tennessee was beating the crap out of georgia on saturday in the first quarter i was running around my house tarp was off i'm like i told these guys i knew this was going to happen i had real money on it i was like this is this is it man they were going to do it and i'm going to look really good on monday god damn field goal kickers

yeah when georgia took the lead in that game in the third quarter i just i just texted arion river and said Kirby is daddy. So I then felt really bad about that about five minutes later. All right. Let us let us go. Well, we'd be going to Columbia either way. But in this particular case, we're going to Columbia, Missouri. South Carolina at Missouri, Missouri is a 13.5 point favorite.

This is Vegas saying we do not think Lenore. Sellers is going to play in this game. Yeah, I mean, concussion stuff. I don't know. You actually just went through it. You tell me, what's concussion protocol look like for a player? So the bare minimum is seven days to get back. So if you have any sort of symptoms day two, you're not getting back in seven days.

And what you have to, when you feel symptom free, that's when you tell them and then they start working you back in. And that process takes five to six days. So that's the clock was ticking, you know, basically. on Saturday night. Even if he was symptom-free Sunday morning. He's not practicing this week. If he was symptom-free Sunday morning, he could actually probably get back for the game.

But you might not, he wouldn't have a full week of practice. And, you know, quarterback- Oh, no, no, no, you wouldn't start, you wouldn't have like a full, now quarterbacks are not live at practice anyway. Yeah. So the version of what he can do at practice,

you could probably start doing Tuesday or Wednesday. And that's the best-case scenario. So you're not going to get, like, Because remember, in college football, by Thursday, the hay is pretty much in the barn. You're practicing in shells on Thursday, kind of going through what you've already installed, and then Friday's a walkthrough. So it's going to be tough. And again, this line is telling us what they think is going to happen.

They think Sellers isn't playing. We saw Luke Doty come in. That was not inspiring. You know, the South Carolina fans on the message were like, where's Aaron Nolan? where was he on the sidelines i know i would have liked the same boy i'm star well Shane beamer did say they might take a look at some things the criticism in south carolina's most squarely on offensive coordinator mike shula's shoulders they that's where everybody seems to be upset and the person they're

directing most of their anger at but here's the thing we saw vandy dominate them after Sellers went out. But I think Fandy was kind of dominating them when Sellers was playing. I think it would have been closer had Sellers not gotten knocked out. But I don't think South Carolina would have won that game. The way Missouri is playing this year, if there's no sellers, I like Missouri, even with all these points, because Missouri has been outstanding so far this year.

Broper Bula is excellent. And, you know, with South Carolina. you want to have it yeah let's do it i'm afraid but i'm going to do it because i like uh i know what you're going to say so just say it okay is pen state worse off now the missouri fans who are watching this going well you just pick us or pick south carolina uh they don't care if pen state fans feel worse off or better off but i'm sure there's a few Penn State fans watching this, too. I'm sure they're asking that question. Is this Will Levis all over again? It could be. It very well could be. And the thing is,

now, Pribula was allowed to do more at Penn State than Will Levis was. Perbula had to come in in some situations like the Wisconsin game last year where it wasn't just you're the running quarterback, here's the package, it was no, here coming and run the offense. And I thought he did a good job with it. But now you're seeing him in command of his own offense, and he's electrifying. Yeah, if this Bo Probula is what we've been seeing all year, like, that's who he is. Like, Drew Aller would probably still be a better NFL prospect because of his size and nature and arm strength. But, frick, man, like a slippery running quarterback. Who looks more like Trace McSorley?

It would be the question I'd ask, and it's Bo Perbula. It's not even an insult to Drew Aller. It's like, would you take Trace McSorley right now if you were Penn State with that. Of course you would. Of course. Because he's just, and like that's the thing that like I was like thinking back about with our quarterback, best quarterback board. Like I like had a quarterback board that everyone's making fun of that basically mirrored the way that the NFL draft big board would look like. And like that's not the right way of looking at it, man.

College football players like Haynes King probably isn't going to be a 10 year NFL starter. But you're telling me that's not the. a quarterback you'd want leading your team? Diego Pavia? Diego Pavia? Like, doesn't Bo Pabula remind you of, like, Haynes King and Diego Pavia in the sense of, like, hey, this guy is just, like, freaking dude in college?

Like, I don't know. I don't know. But what I do know is is 14 points or 13 and a half points is a lot of points, bro. Like, it is. Oh, my God. I think Missouri is going to win. But I'm going to lay 13 and a half.

Pribula, the way he can move? because we saw this with Kairn Jones against South Carolina where Kairn drones probably playing in that offense would have been beaten up a lot more by Dylan Stewart and company

if he couldn't move as well as he did. Pribula moves really well and also you've got to worry about Amat Hardy if you're defending Missouri. Mont Hardy is every 8.1 yards of carry. I was watching the game cast

of their game. It was like 19-yard run, 27-yard run, 13-yard run. Every run was like a, yeah, yeah, I don't know. This is an SEC game. It's in the wrong Columbia. I'm taking 13-5.

There's nothing wrong with Columbia, Missouri. It's a wonderful town. They're both. I say that as someone who's born in Columbia, South Carolina. I meant the wrong, the wrong Columbia for my pick, not the wrong Columbia. Gotcha. I'm going to take 13 and a half and just, like, close my eyes and hope for the best. Wow.

But that's what you're doing. If Lenora Sellers doesn't play, you are closing your eyes and hoping for the best. And I do wonder, too, if there's a difference between backup quarterback that goes into the game if an injury happens and backup quarterback that you prepare for all week. Well, and that's the question. And is Doty that person? Is somebody else that person? Doty look like the guy you put in if you lose your guy for a game. I got to say, because remember, Doty was a quarterback initially.

It was actually a blue chip recruit, but he had changed positions. Like, he's back there now, but is he the guy you go with if Sellers is out for an extended period of time? Now, if sellers, if it's a concussion, you're expecting Sellers back, like missing, he might miss this game, but you expect him back. So that's the question. Who do you prepare at that point? Yeah. Cade Clubnick, Arch Manning, DJ Lagway, and now Lenore's Sellers. Now, Sellers didn't play poorly.

I was just saying, Sellers didn't stink, he just got hurt. I'm saying, like, in terms of the four dudes, and even Garrett Nussmeyer to a certain extent, like the quarterback perceptions and what we get to watch on Saturday are either you stink or you're injured, and that sucks. But it allows for people like Beau Purpule. to come in and become stars. Yeah, like, you know what would be a really funny bit, and I don't know if we should do this this week, but it occurred to me on Saturday,

and I never told you this, would be if you and I did the re-ranking of the best 10 quarterbacks in the country on a show. I was thinking about that, too, because that graphic from April has really made the rounds in the last few days. And look, I got to wear it. I put it out there. It's my fault.

But do you put both? If you could redo the list right now, does Bo Probula go on it? Can I watch this game first? No, let's do it this week. Let's not be wrong again. Yeah, let me watch, let's watch this game first. All right, Ari, you're taking South Carolina because I am with you. That is a ton of points, but I'm not with you on this pick.

This is Ben MGM telling us they don't think Lenora Sellers is going to play. if Lenore Sellers isn't playing, I will take Missouri to cover the 13.5. We'll see. We'll find out. We will find out. Oh, man, what a week this is. What a week.

We have many more games. We do? Yeah. I didn't know how far along we were. Oh, no. We haven't even thought of Miami yet. Yeah. Yeah.

So now we head down to lovely Miami Gardens, Florida. And yes, I'm a stickler for geography. I'm not going to say anything about South Beach because where the Keynes plays nowhere near South Beach. So Florida at Miami, I was a little surprised when this number came out on Sunday, Ari. Miami is a seven and a half point favorite in this game. They are favored by fewer points than LSU was against Florida last week.

And having watched both of those teams, this season, I would think Miami's better than LSU. So I was a little surprised that this number was only seven and a half. Miami has a really good functional quarterback. They have receivers who get open. They have maybe one of the two or three best offensive lines in college football. They have a running back group that is very, very good. And they have one of the best defensive game records in the country.

And all of their defensive backs that they got. in the portal to fix their future different year ago hit yeah so why is seven and a half good they're really good and like i know we're going to make a graphic of who we pick and i'm i'm just like god i like give me florida dude really because the answer to the obvious isn't what happens ever it's just not it just doesn't what happens but sometimes it is like and that's why that's why i picked lSU to cover last week because everything in my bones told me that this is the week that florida plays a better game that they keep it tight they play them tough and guess what most of florida's players did keep it tight and play them tough but florida's most important player

through five interceptions florida's defense was good in that game. But here's the thing. They're going to play at offense that's better than the one they played last week. LSU could not run the ball until the last series of the game. They hit a 51-yard run. So it made the stats look better. Miami will be able to consistently run the ball. And remember, Florida's best defensive lineman, Caleb Banks, he came back for the LSU game. He went out during the fourth quarter of the LSU game. He's not going to be back. In fact, he may never be back. at Florida because this may not this may knock him out so i think miami is going to be able to run the ball and control the clock and take possessions away from florida so

that makes the ball more precious like don't throw picks do i think dj lagway is going to throw five picks again i don't i don't either will he throw two i think that's possible and the problem is if Miami's sucking possessions out of the game two might be enough to cripple you I think Miami is immeasurably better I do I really like you're not

you're convincing me of stuff that I agree with no but I get it because I was here last week I said this I think Florida I said last week I think Florida wins one of these because they're not that bad I don't think that Florida is going to win I don't think they're going to You think they'll just keep it close

I think that it's an in-state battle and they've got a pulse enough to keep the game close They haven't quit We'll say that They've not quit Everyone's going to play The Transit of Property game

Miami beat the crap out of the team That beat Florida on the road Miami's beating the crap out of Notre Dame I'm not doing that with the USF thing I'm not doing the transitive property thing here All I'm doing is evaluating this position group by position group. What's the other problem Florida's had?

They keep getting touchdowns called back because of penalties. Yeah. What was their biggest? If you're holding on that 73-yard touchdown pass, they cover it easily and maybe win, by the way. There you go. Yeah.

Here's the problem. They keep happening. You know what you got to do to Ruben Bain to stop him? Hold them. Mm-hmm. So if they get a crew that doesn't call a lot of holding, maybe they're okay. But if they get a crew that calls holding when they see it,

they may have some problems. Yeah. I mean, I've faded Miami every week and have been wrong every week. And I don't want to pick Miami every week and been right every week. Yeah. And I don't want it to be viewed as a trend because I put Miami 3 in my poll, dude. Like, I think Miami is awesome. Like, if Florida is ever going to show that it is not a joke,

this is the week, right? Well, and that is why, because it's interesting. We talked before the UCLA and Virginia Tech firings about when some of this stuff might start coming down. And we said, well, it's probably going to be closer to the end of the season because the transfer portal opens,

guys who haven't redshirted are going to instantly enter the portal because they want a red shirt this season. It's a dangerous precedent to say, well, now the same thing, the seal's been broken by two teams. Florida has an open week next week, and then Texas comes to town.

If Miami blows their doors off, that may be it. That may be it, because at that point, I think you have reached the point of no return. Florida has not had their door blown off yet. They have not. They have not. Now, ultimately, when it happens, the we didn't get our doors blown off will not be the excuse that saves anybody no i'm just talking

about who you picked today correct correct but they did lose by 10 last week they did so i'm encouraged by how much they lost to on the road in a much tougher environment now i think miami will probably be a tough environment people are fired up but like remember 10 a lot of the people who live in south florida are florida fans so there will be a lot of florida fans in the building Touchdown called back, 80-yard touchdown called back, but the hold five interceptions lose by 10 to LSU on the road. Remember, we also saw these two teams play. Now, Miami's changed quite a bit, but you know where Miami hasn't changed much?

The line of scrimmage. The line of scrimmage. They dominated these same people. Florida has changed a lot on the line of scrimmage since that game, though. They have not. No, I mean, they've all the same people. Those people play much better than they did on that game. Have they?

This season? No, not this season, but like last year. They did last season. Yeah, at the end of last season. Miami wouldn't have beaten them that way if they played in week nine. I don't think. No, but the Florida team that played USF will get drilled by Miami. Like if on the line of scrimmage, they play the way they're against USF, this will be a 21 point game.

This is so painful. They got a shot. This is so painful, dude. I know who's better. I understand this is we talked about this at the top of the show you were talking about ideas versus results I get your idea here I understand your idea and your idea is and I agree Florida is not going to quit they have not quit yet so that you think they're going to play tough Miami is better and Florida could quit sustaining the idea I think they're going to quit I really don't but I also think it's possible that Miami's just that much better. Yeah. Miami could be the best team in the country this year.

It's possible. It's possible. So are you have Florida and the points? I'm taking the canes to cover. It's going to be such. I hate this. I hate it. No, you do.

I hate. Are you doing this just to be opposite me? Is that the only reason? I picked before you. okay all right i was i was planning on this all along though you know because you've you've talked to me over the last three days you know where i'm at on my alma mater here i also know that the second you're out is usually when florida starts being good again that's true that happened last year that did happen last year so i'm also very bad at this you know what though if we're all

keep that mind i think that the most likely outcomes are both going to be like five and five it's possible but it's like i feel like you are taking public plays well i am basically public play everyone's going to bet on miami but i understand the reasons why everybody would pick florida this is one where i feel like having seen under the hood quite a bit i'm not confident in them to play a competent enough game or call a competent enough game to be that close That's the disconnect right there.

So you have the Gators. I got the Cains. Let's go to Waco. This may be the best quarterback duel we've seen so far this season. Sam Levitt versus Soye Robertson, Arizona State against Baylor, two and a half point spread, Baylor's favorite at home. Again, Big 12, no idea what's going to happen. But I want to watch this game.

just because it's going to be electro-flying. We're going to see a lot of touchdown passes. Yeah, I think that it's interesting that the Big 12 schedule has kind of shown itself to be quite entertaining for week one. I know that Baylor lost at home to Auburn, but that doesn't have any impact, obviously, and what happens in the Big 12, and this is a monumental game. These are all matchups between teams that we could conceivably think, you know, is going to competing for this title at the end of the year. And this is another coin flip game, and it's in Waco.

Arizona State, you know, obviously took its lumps earlier in the year. They have a loss to. This is a very difficult game. Where is your thought process on this? Like, by the way, we both had Sam Levitt on our quarterback lists of best quarterbacks in the country. You know, I know we're not redoing the list even as much as I want to. Like, would you rank Sawyer-Robertson at this point higher based on production this year?

can I watch this game first I mean to say that we're giving a big no I actually would have Sawyer Robertson head of almost everybody yeah he's been outstanding and that

it'll be interesting like because we'll get to see Auburn's defense against John Mateer this week like was that because Auburn's defense was kind of porous or was that because Sawyer Robertson just sliced him up

yeah I don't know yeah and got some good receivers in this game Josh Cameron for Baylor, Jordan Tyson for Arizona State. I mean, this is Firework City. And I have no clue what's going to happen because I think it's going to be high scoring. You know, 59 and a half's your total. I would go over that.

But I'm going to take the Bears. And I'll tell you, this is a dumb reason, I think. Maybe it's not. it felt like Arizona State had kind of the breaks went their way last year and those things tend to even out over time. Yeah. Yeah.

So you're, the thing that is crazy to me is I cannot get the Auburn game out of my head. I don't know if Arizona State can do what Auburn did. You know, we saw Arizona State in the second half of the Mississippi State game. They did commit to running the ball and really ran it down Mississippi State's throat.

That's how they got back in the game. You know, they were down. It looked like they were out. And they went when they wind up taking the lead. And then, of course, they have the defensive laps at the very end. But they did commit to running the ball and they were moving. Like, if they come into the plan to just do that the entire game, I think there's a couple of things that can help. them there. I think, one, they should be able to do that against Baylor, but two, you keep the

ball out of Sawyer Robertson's hands in a little more regular interval. And I think that, like, that's, that would be my strategy. And if all of a sudden Baylor loads the box and you can't do anything, then you just turn Sam Levitt loose. But I don't know, I don't know if they can run the ball as well as Auburn did. Yeah. Yeah. It's another coin flip game. I'm not sure here. I'm going to go with Arizona State just to try to create some separation. Like, listen, you've been doing really, really well. And, like, I've gambled enough to know in my life that sometimes you're the bug.

It's all comes back around. Yeah, it's all going to come crashing down on you. I'm going to take Arizona State. I think the Arizona State has a really, really good one-two punch, obviously, at the quarterback receiver do it with Levitt and Dyson. I think that they should be able to run the ball enough. I'm not confident in Baylor's defense. Sawyer Robertson scares the crap out of me.

But I'll take the two and a half and hope that, you know, it comes down to two-point conversions and overtime. It's entirely possible it might. So, yeah, I'll take Baylor. Ari will take Arizona State. One more. Let's head back to the Big Ten. And this is a game that could determine a playoff spot.

Like we could look back at the end of the season and say this is a result that decided to playoff spot. Illinois at Indiana. Indiana is a four and a half point favorite. So here is where the linemakers at Bed NGM and the people who vote in the polls differ dramatically because Illinois is number nine because we made them the trendy preseason team. We assumed Indiana would just drop off after that really good year. But I don't think people took into account how much Indiana was bringing back.

off that roster last year. I know Vegas did, and that is why Indiana is a favorite here. Yeah. Indiana has scored 56 and 73 points in their last two games. Indiana State. That was a close game. Larry Bird was not walking through that door. This is one of the games of the year for the Big Ten, and I don't think people are giving it the credit that it deserves.

this could very well be the big noon game if people knew ball and I know that the big noon game is also very entertaining but this is to me like this is a very important this is a game that you and I have been circling all offseason like when we had Brett Bielman

remember we were in Atlanta covering the national title game and we had Brett Bilemon on the show and this was the game when we looked at his schedule we were like that's the one they got to win Brett, yeah, who's this year's Indiana? Is it Indiana or Illinois? I don't know.

Indiana is very good and Illinois is very good. I have Illinois in my top 10 because I see a team that returned a lot. And I think that you are right and that Indiana also did. I've seen Illinois beat a pretty good power team already. We don't know Duke's pretty good. yeah i'll take that win over any of indiana's wins oh 100% 100% i've seen it with my eyes i like luke altmire i mean i like i like a lot about indiana too these are very difficult games this week they are um not not the best slate of games if well and this is where this is where we

point out that the way we do this show is we just pick the games that we know everybody wants to talk about and we know not all of you care about the gambling piece of it you just want to who's going to win the game. So we want to give you a discussion of the games you want to talk about and give our best guess at what we think is going to happen in those games, whether you want to pick, you know, against the spread or not. Later in the week, we have some folks on who are going to give you like the sharpest picks. This is a game that I think most people would just stay away from because it is very difficult to predict. I don't know that I'm like, and again, like I don't I bet a ton, but I don't bet a lot of the games that we pick

because it's for entertainment purposes. But I'm leaning Illinois here, Andy. I think there was a moment at the end of the Duke game when Illinois beat the crap out of them where they zoomed in on Brett Bilema's face and he had that patented Brett Bilema smirk. Oh, yeah. And I feel like he just knows he has it this year.

I don't know. Well, the thing is, Brett Bilema, and Kurt Signetti are way more similar than I think anybody wants to admit. They both know when they've got a team and they're both not afraid to really unleash hell on somebody when they have a team.

So the thing we need to figure out, and I think we should know within the first quarter what's going to happen here, so against the ham sandwiches that Indiana has been playing so far this season, they're averaging 6.9 yards of carry. If they're throwing five yards of carry up on Illinois, right out of the gate, Indiana is going to win this game. They're going to control this game.

Fernando Mendoza, we talk about him, but it's really that offensive line, those backs. So Keelan Black is averaging 6.4 yards of carry. Lee Beebe is averaging 7.7 yards of carry. The freshman Kobe Martin, 8.6 yards of carry. And then Roman Hemby, who played a lot last year. is it is backing it up at 5.6 yards of carry. So if Indiana is controlling the ball on the ground, Indiana will win this game because it will put Illinois in a desperation situation

where they can't, you know, Luke Altmeyer is going to have to be Superman, and then Indiana is probably going to do some things to make and make some mistakes. If Illinois is stuffing Indiana and making Fernando Mendoza throw to beat them, now we got a game now we we see what happens yeah so are you leaning i think i like those points i think i like the alinae i like the alina i too i don't know if we're just like we're we're trying to it's like confirmation bias of like what do you think's going to happen what do we where we have them ranked what do we think was going to happen this year and then you just get hit in the face of it

um here's the thing like if indiana comes out and and and just steamrolls them or even they just control the game and let's say that they win a a 21 14 game i might not pick against indiana in most of their games the rest of the season i might say you know what this is going to be the same team as last year yeah so i mean this is like a find out saturday i think yeah i think Illinois can be an equally dynamic version of what Indiana was last year. So I like Luke Altmire a lot. I go back to the Duke game where Duke was really in his face a bunch early in that game. And he could have really put them in a hole with some negative plays if he'd freaked out. But he was very calm. It was like he'd been in, he'd been through this before, which he has.

And he guided them through that, and then the defense started turning Duke over, and then that was that was that. But I do think Luke Altmeier is a differentiator here. We'll see about Fernando Mendoza because we haven't gotten a chance to see him with Indiana playing against good competition yet. So we'll find out, you know, Fernando Mendoza, remember, was a cow last year, was pretty good. Georgia wanted him, but he wasn't sure what was going to happen with guys. Senator Stockton. The starting job wasn't necessarily his if he wanted it. He goes to Indiana, where the starting job is his to replace Curtis Rourke.

We don't know what he's going to be yet. He could be really good, too. But we do know that Luke Altmyer is good in these games. Yep. We have a great slate on Saturday. I cannot wait. And again, this one, the loser's not out of it, obviously. but producer river can we throw up Indiana schedule and Illinois schedule so here's Indiana schedule it gets hard after this they've got at Iowa at Oregon so thing if you lose this one things can slip out of control pretty quickly if you're not careful they also have to go to Penn State later in the year so if they want to go back to the playoff they probably got to win this one let's look at Illinois schedule so they they get USC after this at home

which is no, no easy feat. USC is really good this year. They've got to play Ohio State. They've got to play at Washington. So again, they've probably got to win this one if they want to make the playoff. That's what I love. I mean, look at this. You cannot beat the stakes of this thing.

Can't beat it. It is like a quasi-playoff game in mid-September, which is great. I thought we didn't get those anymore. We kind of do. All right. So, Ari, you're taking Illinois to cover? I am taking Illinois to cover. Kurt Signetti will come on and laugh at us if we're wrong.

This is, Kurt Signetti is going to love this. He hates it when we're like, Illinois is going to kick the crap out of this team. He wants us to doubt him. But so does Brett Bieland. I'm happy to help. Yeah, we're going to be on Indiana's hype video for sure.

We won't be in Illinois, but that's okay. I'm sure somebody's going to pick against them, too. But this is going to be such a fun week. the truth of it is we don't know what's going to happen in a lot of these games they are very unpredictable and that is the best kind of weekend cannot wait we'll talk to you tomorrow