Andy & Ari On3 - College Football WEEK 5 PICKS | Oregon-Penn State, Alabama-Georgia, Auburn-Texas A&M, LSU-Ole Miss

Episode Date: September 22, 2025

It's time for Week 5 of College Football, and this is the best slate of the season thus far. Watch here as Andy & Ari pick the BEST games of the year. As Andy struggled with his picks last week with a record of 2-7, Ari found himself going 16-13. Total records through Week 4: Andy: 19-19-1Ari: 16-22-1 Who will end up with a better record after this week? Andy & Ari pick the following games:(0:00-0:37) On Today’s Show(0:38-2:15) BetMGM(2:16-4:41) Intro: Week 5 Picks!(4:42-14:13) #8 Florida State at Virginia (+7)(14:14-17:56) #24 TCU at Arizona State (-2.5)(17:57-26:04) #21 USC at #23 Illinois (+7)(26:05-26:41) Academy Sports + Outdoors(26:42-34:33) #22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (+5.5)(34:35-44:13) #1 Ohio State at Washington (+8.5)(44:14-45:32) Gametime(45:33-54:32) #4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss (-2.5)(54:33-1:02:04) Auburn at #9 Texas A&M (-6.5)(1:02:05-1:11:08) #6 Oregon at #3 Penn State (-3.5)(1:11:09-1:22:06) #17 Alabama at #5 Georgia (-3.5)(1:22:07-1:22:43) Conclusion: see you tomorrow! Also, on Monday, Chris Low broke the news of the annual opponents the SEC teams will have to face for the next 4 years starting in 2026. Video here: https://youtube.com/live/ANWMQKulLXE Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Our show is sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoors! https://www.academy.com/c/backpack Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/CdJ39bXVVsU Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3, it's a pick show, and man, do we have some incredible games to pick from Friday night in Tempe, TCU, Arizona State to early Saturday, Notre Dame at Arkansas, USC at Illinois, going to LSU Ole Miss, and then at night, oh boy, oh boy, Oregon, goes to Penn State. a whiteout, and Alabama visits Georgia. We pick them all today on Annie Narion 3, presented by BetMGM. We've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We will be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join BetMGM, you'll get access to a variety of parley selection features like same game parlayes, live betting options, and more. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as college football CFB, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BEDMGM. Here's how that works. Download the BDMGM app and sign up using the bonus code

CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See Bed MGM. dot com for terms 21 plus only u.s promotional offers are not available in new y nevada ontario or porto rick gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in the u.s call 8778 hope in y or text hope in y 467369 in new york call 1 800 next step in arizona call 1 800 327 55050 in massachusetts call 1 800 bets off in iowa or 1 800 981 0 003 in porto rico First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements,

rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to a PICS edition of Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM and Ari. This is the week we've been waiting for all calls. football weeks are wonderful they're special it's like your children they're all beautiful like everybody's kids are beautiful to them uh but this this one's beautiful to everybody yeah this is incredible and i feel like it's really great that you're in my home uh for this week you know andy popped down from oklahoma and spent a few days with me and gave me an excuse

to watch sunday night football in peace last night and it was pretty great so uh yeah i'm really excited to get into these games there's so many of them and i think maybe we should just get right into it oh records from last week yeah we we can skip this part please the foot the shoes on the other foot last week i went to bed on sunday evening with a pit in my stomach uh admitting that i was going to or having to admit that i went was it one and seven or something last one in one and eight one and eight yeah terrible bounced back this week six and three um you know some of the bad beats that i experienced earlier in the year got repaid to me in the form of jackson arnold taking a safety to cover. I was standing in the end zone on the other side at Memorial Stadium in Norman.

And I'm standing there as they're lining up that play. And I'm saying all he has to do is not take a safety. And I get this game right. All he has to do. And as soon as the ball is snapped, I knew. He's like, this is over. You know, it is kind of funny the way that the stuff works out because six and a half points, which was what the spread of that game was all week, felt like a lot to me. And honestly, it should not have hit. No. I mean, I'll take a victory when I can get it. But Andy's record is still better, 19, 19 and 1 through the first month of the season, and I'm 16, 22, and 1.

I guarantee it at the beginning of the year that I would have a better record by the end of the year. You might have a better record by the end of the week. You know what? This is a tough week. It's a tough week, and we've got a lot of great games. And Andy, I'm excited to get to do it. So we're going to pick these games out. If you want to talk about the new SEC annual opponents, which,

Chris Lowe, our new colleague at On3, broke on Monday morning. We did a video with Chris on that. So you can find that on the On3 Sports YouTube channel. It is also in the podcast feed. So if you're a podcast listener and you want to listen to that, that is also in your podcast feed as well. But we have games to pick and we need to get started because, shoot, this weekend is so good that even Friday nights got bangers.

They do. So let us go to Charlottesville, Virginia, where Florida State will open ACCC. play against a very plucky Virginia Cavaliers team. They've been very good this year now. A lot of that has been against overmatched opponents. The one ACC game they played, they kind of collapsed in the third quarter against NC State, couldn't handle the duo of CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers.

And yes, I just wanted to say Hollywood Smothers. But that's what I'm going to order for lunch today, by the way. Oh, yeah. Everyone loves the Hollywood Smother. So this game is very interesting, because it is a road favorite on a weeknight. And I have always said,

be wary of the road favorite on a weeknight. Florida State is a seven-point favorite in Charlottesville on a Friday night. Now, a lot of this is what do we think about Florida State? What do we know about Florida State? We saw them against Alabama. So we've seen them against good competition playing well. They've then gone and just annihilated overmatched opponents, which given what we saw from Florida State last year feels like massive

progress they're scoring points yeah at will everything looks easy for them right now yeah so you know there are a handful of teams and i think we should have a segment of is this team really good yeah week because there are like 10 teams that are three or four and oh right now that may be very good but may not be we don't know yet i think florida state probably is not in that category because beating alabama the way that they did mean something regardless of how you feel about bama well and florida state's going to play miami next week so like we'll know yeah and i I certainly cannot wait for that game, Andy. But I think that there's enough circumstantial and direct evidence in this case

to think that Florida State's at least a very good football team. Now, the question that we're going to face a lot this week, Andy, as Big Ten gets into play and you have some weird time slots and you have weird traveling. This doesn't apply travel-wise to this because this is an ACC game, is are you going to pick the teams or are you going to pick the spot? And that's the hardest part because it is a very challenging spot. you know and you would think too with Florida State looking ahead maybe you know to yeah Miami's off this week Florida State has to play a conference game so it's

there are different situations but I also think Florida State has not really been challenged and I think that they'll probably get up for the idea of a challenge here and Virginia should challenge like this is not going to be easy I don't think they go in there and just roll Virginia but I do think they're capable of beating Virginia it comfortably. Yeah, yeah. So I, you know, I think that there are multiple games this week where you're just like, oh, well, I really feel good about the team. I feel good about their ability, but this is just a really bad, bad spot. And like, maybe we're going to get to that when we get to USC, for instance. That's not an easy place to travel to if you're USC. Well, I don't know that I feel

that way. Like, I know that we always think about the, the weeknight grab ass that can occur in these games. I am pretty confident that Florida State is probably at least touchdown better than Virginia. Well, the thing is, like, Tommy Castellanos has looked great. Everything we thought about him was wrong. He's been remarkably consistent. He's been really good for the Scuss-Malazon offense. He looks like a great fit in it. They have playmakers on Floress team, but I will say Chandler Morris, another blast from the past name, has been great at Virginia. And Chandler Morris, like, remember, signed with Oklahoma, then he was at TCU, then he was at North Texas. Like, he's been all over the place. Yeah. So,

Are you thinking about getting froggy here or what? I just, I have a hard time doing that. I think Florida State's been so consistent this year, which, you know, if you told me two months ago that we'd be saying Florida State was one of the most consistent teams in America over the first month of the season, you're like, really? Yeah. And I think I do find that Mike Norvell will continue to capture the emotion that they're playing with. You know, in 66 to 10 against Ken State, that doesn't really mean much. East Texas, I&M, which I didn't know was a school until two weeks ago, 77 to 3. I don't know how much stock you put into that, but watching them just bowl over people

a year removed from when every single game and every single possession look difficult, it's just such a breath of fresh air. Yeah, everything looks so hard for them last year. But, you know, and this is like, you look at their leading receivers, Deuce Robinson, who is a guy you loved as a recruit. And he goes to USC. And now he is showing up in the way that you wanted him to. eight catches for a hundred ninety-nine years every in almost 25 yards a catch yeah like and and the

thing is they've really been able to spread the ball around they they've got i don't know i just feel like this is exactly what mike norville dreams of doing and i it makes it really hard to to explain last year like i for example i was i was at oklahoma this past week and watching marvin jones Jr. play great for the Sooners. Marlon's Joe Jr. transferred from Georgia to Florida State before last season, and he wasn't very good at Florida. Like, nothing about last season at Florida State makes sense. And, you know, we said all offseason, we don't think Mike Norville forgot how to coach. But we did, we said that in the context of we think they will be better this year, but not great. Yeah. We're about to find out if they can be great. And I'm pretty excited

to see that. You know, Andy, I do think that I'm going to get froggy here. Oh. Oh, Chandler Morris. Does Chandler Morris stats got you? I think Florida State's going to win. I think it's going to be one of those weeknight games that, you know. You just said there was going to be no weeknight grab ass. Why is there now

going to be weeknight grab ass? I'm changing my mind. Okay. I think that Virginia has been a, you know, average to slightly above average team so far this year. Florida State's looking ahead. They're on the road. It's Friday night. I think all those things. So you're saying the Chardonnay is going to be flowing in Charlottesville.

Yeah, I don't know. I think that Florida State will win, but this line does seem sneaky. Sneaky, but also, too, you were looking at Bill Connolly's ratings. I'm looking at Tyler Shoemaker's ratings, and I'm seeing that this could be in some books or some schools of thought of three point, three and a half point spread. The power rankings, the various power rankings do seem to like Virginia a lot. Yeah, which is interesting to me. And that seems to happen, too, when a team has, you know, scored fairly well this year.

Like, Virginia has, you know, put the ball in the air pretty effectively. And even in their single loss, they lost. Oh, offensively, they were, they were outstanding. And, you know, NC State, I think is a pretty good football team. So, you know, I think that Florida State will win. I do. But I'm going to take the seven points and hope for the best there. Okay.

So you are feeling froggy. And I appreciate that, Ari. I'm glad because I want. want to be on the other side of you on some of these things so that I can be right and you can be wrong. Yeah, we haven't talked about this. I don't know what it's going to look out or like how it's going to pan out on this episode. Is there a lot of tricky games here? Yeah, I don't know how we're going to fall on these things because again, we don't talk about these things before we do them. So I don't know if Ari and I agree on any of these. But I am going to go ahead and

take Florida State to cover the seven here because I just, they've been so consistent so far and it's looked so smooth and you know i i watched the whole virginia nc state game and obviously cj bailey's very good and and i thought chanler morris played really well against that defense but that defense is not florida state's defense yeah and i think i think that's going to be the problem is it's going to be a little bit harder for virginia's score here and i don't know how well they can stop florida state so yeah i will take florida state to cover the tough the most difficult things about betting in these types of shows, Andy, is that on one

hand you have what your brain thinks and what your gut thinks, which is Florida State looks like a wagon this year. They're eating the crap out of everybody. You know, they got Miami. We're making plans about going to the game in a few weeks. And it's like you don't from an intellectual standpoint

really put together, well, why would this game be closer than a touchdown? But then when you start using advanced stats and tools and power ratings and you start to picture the spot, like that's kind of why I flip there at the end like yeah I know that that picking well and also you don't always have it and this is this is one of those traditionally tricky situations when when when when a team plays a weeknight game they are the focus of the entire nation like this game will be the only one college football fans are watching at that time so I think people

tend to get up for that and especially when you're the home team and so If you're the road team who's expected to go into the situation and win, it is more difficult for you to do that. So I get why there would be some reluctance to take full of state. And also try to keep in mind, too, how many times are you watching a game on Saturday? And you're just like, how is this happening? It happens 10 times a weekend. Yeah.

You know, and I'm just going to pick this to be a spot. To be a how is this happening game? Yeah. And we'll see. And then my hope, because we have really wonderful plans to see some palm trees in Tallahassee. There's palm trees. There are palm trees in Tallahassee. I hope that those plans don't get ruined over the weekend.

But for the time being, it seems like a fun time. I think that seven points with the power ratings, I'll take the three and a half points, four points of value and hope for the best there. So let us stay on Friday night. And we're going to go a few miles away from your hometown. You grew up in Scottsdale, Arizona. So we're going to be a few miles south down Scottsdale Road in Tempe, Arizona,

and a stadium built into the side of a mountain, Sundevil Stadium, TCU at Arizona State. The Sun Devils are a two. and a half point favorite in this game. Arizona State, when I walk off Thriller against Baylor, where I thought both defenses played better than I thought they would. And so I thought Sawyer Robertson and Sam Levitt were going to go crazy that game. I think we didn't give Arizona State's defense enough credit. We, we'd seen Baylor get, get wrecked by Auburn, Baylor's defense get wrecked by Auburn, but Baylor's defense looked considerably better against Arizona State. So

I think this could be another one in the 20s, Ari, where the game is played in the 20s and it's tight and it's sort of back and forth nip and tuck. You know, one of the things that is difficult about being next to you when we're recording a show is that your notes are in front of me and I'm like instinctually reading over my shoulder. Yeah, like I feel like I'm cheating on a high school paper right now. I mean, we're going to publish them. Yeah. No, I know, but we're not supposed to know beforehand where you're going. And like, I'm like kind of disappointed because I actually believe Andy that. tc u might be like really really good this year i think it's a good chance and i

unfortunately i'm probably going to land on the same side of you as this one because like i am a josh hoover believer oh he's like i watched him really good and i know there's not much to take about you know systematically five tds against smu he he showed up and like smu is supposed to be a really good football team and tccc um is a close game on the scoreboard but i thought tc u you know looked like the better team for much of that game and ended up winning. So, you know, I know that every single year, the Big 12 has a new treat. It has a new surprise. Arizona State, I think, is a very good team. And the win that they had against Baylor was certainly impressive, especially considering the fact that it was on the road. They get to

return home now. But this is a crazy conference. And it seems like it's a crazy conference. It seems like TCU, there are people trying to tell us about TCU going into the season. Hey, these guys could be very good. Do not discount this. Sunny Dykes has been building up to this and I think I think the people who told us that were right and this team is going to compete for the conference title is going to be in the race for a while but you got to win games like this and I just like love too how trendy like coaches are on a year to year basis you know two years ago or three years ago Sonny Dykes was the man you know and it's like he didn't forget how to assemble a good football team or to be a good coach right it's just that

team that went the national title game had a lot of really older a really good old older players and they went to the NFL. Shout out. And they had to. Johnston. But yeah, like the, the scales swing a lot in this conference. It's not like the Big Ten in the SEC where it's the same four teams. And maybe that'll change in the SEC this

year too. But like, I just feel like TCU might be the team that we aren't talking about enough in the Big 12 race. I know that Texas Tech is sexy and exciting right now after what they did to Utah on Saturday. But let's not lose track of Josh Hoover and all the stories that

are going to be, you know, printed on on three in the athletic and ESPN later on that said Josh Hoover had a chance to leave and didn't type of stuff. You know, I can just almost feel like I can see the future in this scenario. And I really, really like TCU in the spot. All right. I agree with Ari. I also will take TCU because we're getting two and a half points here. So TCU to cover at Arizona State. Now we move to Saturday. And Ari, the last game I watched. This past Saturday, it was Sunday where I was when it ended, was Michigan State at USC. That game started at 8 p.m. Pacific time and ended, I want to say, close to midnight Pacific time, because it was close to 2 in the morning central time where I was when it ended.

And now they have a game that will start at 11 a.m. central time. So this is a body clock game. And I know people say, well, that's a bunch of crap. None of that matters. It does tend to make things weird sometimes. Not necessarily how late USC's game ended. But I remember back in the day that the PAC 12 used to have a thing where, you know, if you played on the road at night on Saturday, they were saying you needed to not have an early,

early start the next week. And people actually complained about that sort of thing. So this is a tough spot. Plus, you got the weirdness of Illinois. Did you hear it's a wind tunnel there? From you. Yeah. But the weirdness of Illinois that just went to Bloomington got their doors blown off.

So they've got to come back and prove, hey, we're not as bad as we looked against Indiana. We're still a good team. This is a strange game. USC is favored by six and a six and a half points on the road. I don't know what's going to happen here. I really don't. So instead of me looking at your nose, how about I just look at mine? Yeah, look at your notes.

No, USC has improved a 4-0, and they've done so in relative obscurity because people are afraid of getting hurt again. And I'm me being one of them. And I wonder if they are just very good. This is a team that falls squarely in the are they actually good category? I don't know if you've been paying attention to this guys, but USC ranks number three in total offense. And I know that's a made-up stat that doesn't matter. It's all about scoring. It's not made up. It's a moving the football.

which is not that you know what but they're also good i think they're also good in the non-counting stats as well so yeah and jaden maiava's looking really good and you know lincoln riley although taking a lot of flack from you know the media and rightfully so yards per play which is not a counting stat but is a dividing stat but is a fairly useful one you know where u sc ranks in the country number one number one nine point two yards per play so very explosive offense yeah and like maybe we should have thought more about hey hey, they didn't go get a quarterback this offseason. I remember like when there were certain, you know,

quarterbacks hitting the portal. Yeah, USC is the total, you know, place for it. And like USC didn't even, you know, I don't think it was even in the mix. Remember when Nico I amaliava entered the portal? Oh, USC didn't even sniffed. They didn't blink, yeah. And I think that maybe we should lean back to the mean somewhere and start to,

you know, consider Lincoln Riley might know what he's doing with that. Yeah. So, you know, I don't know. I'm not fully back in on USC. I think that, you know, there were some games that they had some quarters that they would like to have back. But I do think that maybe USC is undervalued in Illinois, obviously with what we saw on Saturday night was a little overvalued. I think so. And the thing is, what worries me for Illinois in this game is Illinois looked or Indiana made Illinois look slow.

defensively. It looked like they couldn't keep up with Indiana's playmakers. It's not often I'm watching a college football game and I start feeling bad for a team. I start feeling bad for a little on Saturday. Very bad. So here's the thing. USC has Mackay Lemon,

Jacoby Lane. Mackay Lemon, 24 catches already this year. So he's the workhorse of the offense, but he still averages 18 yards of catch even though he's caught 24 balls. And then you got Jacoby Lane, who's averaging 26.6 yards a catch. These guys are a big play waiting to happen.

And I think that feels right, doesn't it? That's got to scare you. Yeah, it feels like what we thought all would happen all along with Lincoln Rout at USC. But should scare the hell out of you if you're Illinois and you struggled to keep up with Indiana's players, which Indiana's players are really good. I'm not going to, we're not going to pretend that they're not or that this suddenly means that Illinois stinks.

I don't think it means Illinois stinks. But I am concerned about Illinois trying to. guard these particular receivers who seem to be excellent at creating big explosive plays. Yeah, and I'm ready to get hurt again, Andy. I'm going to I'm going to lay the points on the road, six and a half. I think it's trending towards maybe even being seven in some places. I'll lay the touchdown and hope that they're not tired. Well, and that's the weird, the weird thing is, is the body clock.

Like, because this is, this feels like one of those spots from last year where USC, went east and it was like what are you doing how is this happening Maryland was one of those Minnesota was one of those and you know I don't I don't think that has to do with the travel I think that just was those particular games the circumstances of those games and USC was not exactly a complete team last year but I don't I really don't think it has to do with the with the travel yeah somebody didn't somebody like write a stat somewhere that USC is like one and we got a question about it and it was it was one of those things where it was games in eastern and central time but really the the Maryland and Minnesota games were the only weird ones the other ones where they happen to be playing excellent teams usually in postseason games yeah in those time zones or or playing Notre Dame yeah so like that I think I think that was a little bit misleading well our beloved river was kind enough to go out and look what the wind speed was projecting

to be on Saturday and four miles an hour that's not fast. Not a wind tunnel, Ari. No, see, that's what you don't. Well, the sun be shining in Champaign. No. There's no sun in Champaign in Illinois. But the one thing that I will say is that four miles an hour might not seem intimidating, but once it goes through the tunnel, it turns into 25 miles. I don't know. It doesn't seem to bother Luke Altmeyer.

So I really don't think it's going to bother Jaden Maiave either. Yeah, the one thing to, and to go back to another counting stat, they are 53rd, I believe, in total defense, USC is. And like, I think that we have removed ourselves and Dayton Land has done a great job and rebuilding that whole thing over there. Well, if you go back in the Michigan State game, Michigan State did get within a touchdown right at the end of the third quarter. That was actually because USC turned the ball over and set Michigan State up in a good spot. But I think Illinois is

going to score. So, you know, you want USC's really effective, explosive offense to put up a ton of points here. Like I could see a 35-24 game. But that's what USC did against Michigan State. Like Michigan State got within a touchdown and then USC very quickly extended to the lead. Yeah. So I'm going to start putting my faith back into the USC offense. I think as they have moved to 4-0 behind the scenes, I've taken notice.

I've been quiet about it. Don't want to get hurt again, but I think I'm ready to get hurt again, laying the points. Oh, do we need to come up with another USC bet? I mean, that worked out really well for me last time. It's a great steak dinner. But I don't want to bet on it. Like, that's the problem. I'm not convinced.

I mean, at some point, you're going to get me to run three miles around this lake over here. But I don't think this is it because I think we're on the same side of this. I think USC's going to cover this seven points as well. I just think they're too explosive and I'm worried about Illinois's defense against USC's receivers. I just, what I saw against Indiana, it does not look like this is a good matchup for Illinois. Now, granted, it could be completely weird because it is a, an 11 a.m. local game with a West Coast team coming east, but I don't know. I just, what we've seen from USC so far suggests to me that they're going to score a bunch

of points here. So I will take USC to cover. Now, before we get to our next game, our next game will be played on an SEC campus. It is Notre Dame at Arkansas. I'm going to tell you about Academy, Sports, and Outdoors. Huddle up football fans. Tailgate season is here. And nobody gets SEC fans ready for game day like Academy Sports and Outdoors. by your local academy store or shop online at academy.com to find grills, jerseys, and more. Fun can't lose, and neither can you with tailgate gear from Academy. Academy Sports and Outdoors is the official sporting goods and outdoor retailer of the SEC, and they will be ready to party at Arkansas. They're coming off a couple losses, Ari. They lost to Ole Miss.

They lost a heartbreaker at Memphis. Late Fumble sets up Memphis to win the game. Now Notre Dame comes. This is going to be an interesting game both ways because we are going to learn a lot about Notre Dame's defense here, I think. I think we watched the Texas A&M game, got very concerned about Notre Dame's defense. And I said last week, I think Notre Dame's defense is going to be fine. I think we're going to find out that Texas A&M's offense is very good. Now, Arkansas's offense is also pretty good. Their defense, not so much.

I'm not as worried about Notre Dame scoring here. here. Notre Dame is going to score, but I just want to know how much is Arkansas going to score. How much is Tailing Green going to do against this Notre Dame defense? Because they were scoring just fine against Ole Miss and scoring just fine against Memphis. Yeah. Well, I think that we both agree that the over is the play here. I believe that it opened at 62 and a half and has now moved 64. Were you looking at my notes? No. Because I don't even usually pick the total. And in this one, I did pick the total. And we both picked the total.

We both picked the total. I think, yeah, yeah, see? Yeah, all right, but this is a bonus pick. I don't know if we count this in the stats river, but Ari and I both have it. This feels like the easiest total of the of the year so far. Yeah. This feels like the most obvious over, and it's 64 and a half. It's a big number, but it feels like the most obvious over we've seen all year.

Yeah, which means it's probably going to finish 31 to 20. exactly but like i think that notre dame is going to win this football game i also think that five and a half points is a lot of points in this situation um because notre dame is also in a little bit of a desperate situation you know like it is a uh it's trying to get a win the whole year the whole year's desperation i you marcus freeman said to them and i thought it was interesting he said to the team before the peru game he's like don't forget your o and two like we're not going to pretend you didn't lose two games your backs are against the wall yeah that's right um and i think that if you do trust anybody to get them out of the hole it's marcus

freeman because they literally just did it last year but i think that this idea that they're just going to run through the rest of their schedule and never have to sweat now is completely missed false yeah it's not true and like arkansas you know you're hearing a lot of you know i I don't know about you, but I see on Twitter a lot of the, you know, Sam Pittman is officially finished and, you know, will Bobby Petrino finish out the year? Yeah, I don't look at these last two results as definitive proof that Sam Pittman's a bad coach. Like, Arkansas stinks.

Like they were right in it with Ole Miss and Memphis. So it's your both good, like Ole Miss and Memphis could both be playoff teams this year. Things shake out the right way. So I am actually not just going to step my foot into the Notre Dame goes coast to coast, wire to wire for the rest of the year and wins all their games easily the way that they did last year. I think that this is going to be a tough game. And until I see something from Notre Dame's defense that proves that they are very good or not bad, I should say. And I think that A&M's offense is really, really good. So I think that part of the reason why they gave up 41 points is because

A&M is going to score more than 30 on just about everybody they play this year. But I do think that there is a opening there for Arkansas, Tailing Green, who has been very good offensively this year to score some points. And I think this might be a very close, exciting high-scoring football game where the final score is, you know, five and a half or less. So I'm going to take the points. So you're ready for the stat about the Arkansas defense? Sure. Is it bad? They gave up the same amount of yards per play against Ole Miss and Memphis. 6.8 yards per play. It was bad, bad, bad, bad. Oh, wow. That stat is really, really close because it's not 6.8. It's 6.7.9. So it was super precise. Exactly. So they played 70 plays.

against Ole Miss and gave it 475 yards. They played 72 plays against Memphis and gave up 489. The splits were different because Memphis ran for a lot more than than Ole Miss did. But if you're Jeremiah 11, Judarian Price, you're looking at your chops in this game. In the last game, Andy, you know, you're looking at that. Notre Dame is not the team you want to see in that situation.

And I do kind of, I am a little bit concerned maybe about the total if Notre Dame, you know, controls the ball on the ground and is, you know, rushing for chunks of five and six that, you know, they might not. I don't know, but the problem is that it might be like Michigan against Nebraska, where they're not rushing for chunks of five or six. They're rushing for chunks of 50 and 60. Yeah. So it happens like on the first play of a drive at their own 8, 20 yard line.

Yeah, if that happens, then we're good. As long as it's not long sustained 14 play drives where the ball's being rushed, you know, 10 out of the 14 plays, I think will be fine. I just, I am not fading Notre Dame as much as I am like, confident in Arkansas's offense. I think that he deserved that through the first month of the season. And I think it's going to be a really good game, Andy. Yeah, the Arkansas offense has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season. It sucks that it's not, it didn't manifest itself in a win in either the last two games. And I feel bad for them on that front. But

Taylin Green so far, completing 64% of his passes, 1,191 yards. He's averaging 9.5 yards for he's got 12 TDs and 4 interceptions. So he's been outstanding this year so far. And of course, it's a great name show i've already mentioned hollywood smothers a couple times yeah uh we're about to mention uh ephesians prisock yeah uh but now we got to talk about omega blake who is arkansas's leading receiver 24 catches on the season and three t's uh omega blake is a great name yeah you know we had a very simple normal name i don't know if you were going to go off the deep end at any point when you guys were thinking about what you're going to name your kids no they they Maggie and Will are pretty right down the middle.

Yeah, we were pretty, pretty boring. But Omega, that's an awesome. Yeah, awesome. Yeah, so what's that, are you? Oh, I'm going Notre Dame Covering. I think Notre Dame is going to run up a lot of points in this game. I think they're going to give up some, but I am curious about the Notre Dame defense.

Are we going to come out of this game saying Notre Dame will have to outscore every good team they play in a shootout or will the defense be able to keep this score just something manageable and then Notre Dame just rolls offensively. I don't know if it's necessarily the second thing, but I don't think it's the first thing either. I think it's something in between where Arkansas puts up a respectable number of points, but Notre Dame ends up pulling away there at the end. Yeah, I can see it happening. So I will take... You're going to be wrong, but I can see it. Yeah, I'll take Notre Dame to cover the five and a half. Ari and I both believe this game is going over 64 and a half smash the under yeah fade us please we're idiots

the good news about like you and i going on opposite ends of games too is this like when people see the graphic as they put our names on the same graphic people all these guys are idiots it's like well one of us is going to be right well it's so funny because last week i didn't have anybody say oh ripped your picks this week and they were and my picks were terrible yeah the week before i had multiple people saying, your picks are awful. You're going to have a terrible week. And I went six and three. And I'm not the kind of person who would go find those tweets and be like, oh, how'd you do this weekend?

How'd it go for you? Yeah. Because those people lost a lot of money that weekend if they were actually betting their own money on this stuff. Yeah. I always just say, if you think I'm an idiot and rip my picks up, then listen, this is a perfect tool for you to fade. Like, you know, these are my picks. And if you don't like them, then you can do what you want with them. Yeah, exactly.

Let us move on to a stadium near an active volcano. Ohio State at Washington. The stadium that already's never seen a game in, but he's scared to go because, again, as I mentioned, there's an active volcano nearby. Mount Rainier is an active volcano. We asked Washington Coast. It literally could erupt at any moment.

We asked Washington Coast Jetfish if he's worried about it. He said it's never given it a second's thought. Have you seen family guy? Like, are you familiar with it? Like when somebody tries to sell Peter Griffin, Volcano Insurance? Quite familiar with family. Okay, so you know the Volcano Insurance clip. Do they actually have Volcano Insurance for homeowners in Seattle?

Should we text Jedfish right now? Well, I'm just curious. Like, if you just buy a regular single family home. Hold on. I'm going to text him. Yeah, just text Jedfish. Do you have Volcano Insurance? I actually thought you were going to because I think you should.

I am not going to text Jed Fish. We've already asked Jed Fish the Volcano question once. We know his stance on it. Jedfish wasn't amused by the Volcano. question. It really bothered me. But it would be kind of funny if you texted him on Thursday of the Ohio State game week. Hey, do you have volcano insurance? If I

text him now and said, do you have Jeremiah Smith insurance? Do you think that would? So the volcano could just be Ohio State. That's the thing. I don't know. So here's Ohio State. I'm doing better at this. I've gotten requests, multiple requests via email. Thank you, viewers and listeners for this. For the folks listening

on podcast, I have to announce the spread of every game. So Ohio State at Washington, Ohio State is an eight and a half point favorite on the road. The total on this game is 52.5. Okay. Continue. I think that this spread is a little bit lower than we would have.

If we were making a spread on this, we might have been somewhere in the 10 to 14 range, just based on what we know about Ohio State or what we think we know about Ohio State. I am somewhat intrigued by whether or not our notions of Ohio State being the clear number one team in the country are skewed a little bit by the Texas win that may not age well. So far, Texas has not lost again since, but that Utec game may as well have been a loss. I think that this is going to be an interesting matchup

because Washington is a very playable team because they score a lot. You know, they've scored at least 38 points in all three of their games. They just put up 59 points, erupted for 28 points in the fourth quarter against Washington State this past weekend. a shout out to Tyler Shoemaker who handed out minus 20 and a half Washington this past week. That was a pretty awesome fourth quarter for everyone. I do think, though, that it's going to be really, really hard to talk me off of Ohio State being 10 points better. Now, Andy, they have DeMond Williams who.

And I think that's the question here, because DeMond Williams Jr. is the X factor. And we've seen Arch Manning not play well against this Ohio State defense. And it may just because Ohio State is really good on defense. And obviously we know how good Caleb Downs is. We know how highly recruited their players are. But I am fascinated to see this because we've only seen Devin Williams Jr. against an elite level defense once. And that was in the Oregon game last year.

That was his first collegiate start. And he played really well. Yeah. I mean, that was the game that Jed Fish referenced to of like, yeah, we found something. Yeah, 17 of 20, 210 yards, I think, in a touchdown. Like, that's against a team that is much better than your team. And obviously, the defense couldn't hold up. And they ended up losing that game by quite a bit of points.

I think it was three touchdowns. But Devon Williams was not phased at all by the level of competition in that game, which I think makes this more interesting. And also, we're going to find out, is Washington's defense better? This is where we talk about Ticario Davis and Ephesians Prysock, the two corners who they're both six four. Like, is Jeremiah Smith ever going to play a game where the two starting corners on the other team are taller than him? I think this might be the only one in his life.

Maybe not even in the NFL. Yeah. To be really tall to be a great corner. That doesn't mean they're going to be able to check him. It just means they're tall. They're just tall. Yeah. But they are both pretty good.

DeMond Williams, 298 yards passing against Washington State 16 of 19 throwing very efficient game for touchdowns. Yeah. And then also they ran them 13 different times. The thing is if you're going to beat a team like Ohio State. especially this version of Ohio State your quarterback has to be special special we're going to find out maybe he is yeah and like we talked about the the ebbs and flows of hyped up coaches uh i do find it quite fascinating that jed fish kind of fell back into uh the behind the scenes a little bit last year because this team was down but like year two at

Arizona was a huge jump for them yeah this is year two for Washington and he has jonah coleman one of the best running backs in the country as well. So offensively, Washington has scored points, and if you're going to give a team that scores as much as Washington does, eight and a half points, it seems like a lot. My question to you, and is always the number one question whenever you're playing Ohio State, is if Ohio State's defense makes things look harder across the board,

and I anticipate that they will. So, you know, I am a Big Ten Ohio State Homer, right? It's hard for me to pick against. We've seen Julian saying against a defense that we think, is good. I don't think Texas has done anything this season to disabuse the notion that they have a very good defense. So I think we've seen Julian saying against a good defense. Now, he didn't play that great. Ohio State didn't gain that many yards in that game. So we don't really know how good their offense is yet, but we know it was good enough. And it played

a mistake-free game in a very high-leverage situation with, which I think is also important. Because if they get in a situation where, let's say, Washington's defense is a little better than we thought, as long as they avoid massive mistakes, they're probably still okay. Yeah, and this game's at 2.30. I know Washington's a very tough place to play, but it's not a night game. I know the travel is probably a pain in the ass to go from Columbus to Seattle and play. It's one large city to another. I think it's probably pretty easy. They're just getting on a charter plane and going. So that's the thing I've always wanted to talk about. yeah it's like once you're on the plane you're on the plane whether the flight is two and a half hours or three and a half hours that's not really that big of a difference right this one's probably about four but yeah it's fine yeah but is there a big difference between being on the plane for two and a half hours and four hours i don't think so especially if you if you're traveling at a fairly opportune time now if you're landing at four in the morning it's probably not great and i'm sure that the accommodations in seattle are quite plentiful it's not like uh mississippi state where there's only casinos around

how dare he how dare can he dillingham there's some lovely hotels in starkville and in the uh in the golden triangle is that what it's called uh yes the golden triangle uh west point starkville and uh Columbus never heard of that my life uh but yes Seattle has a lot going on lot it's a really good sushi places i don't think they're going out for sushi the night before the game that's probably a little risky but what is the riskiest food a football team can be catered with on a Friday night it's it's got to be crustaceans it's got to be shrimp because like if you get wrong you get bad shrimp you're that that oh yeah yeah that's i mean everybody's vomiting everybody's vomiting and that's that's not great that's not going to go taco bell but like i i saw somebody tweet once

imagine you know we've seen the plays where the the center has been working really hard and and he's just you know his stomach's not with him and he vomits on the ball and just snaps it Like we could see that. Maybe we see that with the whole team if they get bad shrimp. Yeah. Somebody once tweeted that if your stomach can't handle Taco Bell, then you shouldn't like reproduce or you're not strong enough for the survival of the fittest. And I'm like, I'm into that.

Taco Bell Darwinism. Back to the game, though, Andy. I do. Yeah. I mean, do you, I think that Ohio State's defense is really, really good. And I think that's the difference here. I think that the only way this works for Washington is if DeMond Williams is special. special, special, and we'll see.

It'd be fun if he is. I just don't know if that's the case. Yeah. I will take Ohio State to cover the eight and a half in this one. I'm going to take Ohio State to cover this too. Just to point out, though, Washington, if they play and cover the spread, because if Washington loses this game by five or seven or whatever, anything less than eight, that I think is a very nice game for them.

Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA, all before Oregon. So if they show that they can play one possession football with Ohio State at home, I think that that is, you might be running into a quality win scenario there, depending on how things go with Michigan, but that might be a playoff route. So anyway, Washington has a chance to prove itself. I think we've seen Jed Fish turn a program around before, a much harder program to turn around up, I might add. Washington has some really exciting good players.

Ticario Davis is on their team now. If you lost track of that as wingspan, he could like, you know. We just talked about how tall he is and Ephesians price stock. But like his wingspan. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

He is the rangiest of rangy corners. Is Ephesians biblical? Is that what you? It is. Okay. It is a book of the Bible, yes. Yeah. So if you want to go to this game,

Ari, you can get in here and get some really good seats at Husky Stadium. Use Game Time. Download the GameTime app. redeem the code staples get $20 off your first purchase terms apply of course there are some great seats some great seats in the uh $200 range in the in the high $100 range uh there are some really good views and obviously it's a beautiful view of lake washington it's a beautiful place to go watch a game uh don't worry about ari don't be scared of the active volcano it'll

be just fine uh are he's just trying to scare you go to that washington ohio state game or if you want, go to Alabama, Georgia this week. That's going to cost you a little more. That's going to run you in the 400s, in the 500s, in the 600s, in the 600s, if you want to get some really good seats at Sanford Stadium this weekend. But there are tickets to all of these great games on game time. Redeem the Code Staples for $20 off your first purchase. And remember, the price you see is the price you pay.

There are no tacked-on fees there at the end. That number's the number. so you want to get a game you want to go see a game in person do you want to brave the active volcano and watch the buck guys play the huskies go to game time use that code staples 20 bucks off your first purchase terms apply ari let us head back to the SEC very interesting spread in this lSU at old miss game old miss is favored by a point in a half and this is one of those classic the rankings the polls and the linemakers disagree because LSU's ranked considerably higher than Ole Miss but the line makers

favoring Ole Miss in this game doesn't feel that weird that they're doing that by the way what do you think Ole Miss is confusing they are a confusing team defense showed up last week for what felt like the first time because it wasn't particularly good against Arkansas

I didn't think it was even that great against Kentucky because I think Kentucky's offense probably going to wind up not being that good and they look pretty functional against Ole Miss. Yeah. And the Arkansas offense obviously was playing very well against them, but against Tulane, which had been very efficient offensively throughout the year,

they shut them down. Yeah. I love that Lane Kiffin was setting up his team for a sideline dunk. I don't know if you saw the video. Well, they, they, the person who scores the touchdown gets to dunk the basketball. But he was, yeah, Lane was actually alley-ooping to a player. Yeah, and they stuffed it. I think that I was very encouraged by what I saw in their 45-10 win against Tulane on

Saturday, because if their defense was as bad as we thought it may be, Tulane would have scored. They would have scored on them. I'm not sure they would have won, but they would have scored more than 10 points. I mean, they took a team that we thought was, at least in the pole position to make the college football playoff and stuffed them into the locker. And I will admit that I think, here's my conspiracy theory. I think that the reason why Brian Kelly had his post game meltdown two weeks ago after the Florida game isn't because of the timing of the question. It's because he's really worried about it.

I think he's actually frustrated by it. He didn't want to hear about it right away. Yeah. But, like, you don't think that walking off the field, even if he hadn't watched film yet, that he saw his offense struggle for four quarters, you don't think that he's certainly aware of that. And I think that that is a major concern. I think that Ole Miss's offense is very good. And I know that their quarterback situation has been interesting. Trinidad Chamberliss has been lights out in relief of Austin Simmons.

Andy, do you know who's playing this weekend? Do we know? We don't. And my thing on this is if Austin Simmons, is the least bit slowed by the ankle still? You start Trinidad. Yeah, start Trinidad. Don't worry about it.

This is a good problem to have. I think Josh Pate was saying this the other day. You know, you say, it's not a controversy. It's a good problem. And it is. Like, you have two quarterbacks who can win you games. That is not a controversy. That is not an issue.

That is not a problem. And basically, it allows Austin Simmons time to truly heal because we saw him have to come into the Arkansas game when Shambliss got his hand hurt. and Simmons did not look like he needed to be playing in a football game at that point. So perhaps he's better now, but if you have any doubt, just our Trinidad. And your offense should continue to move very well. And really now, I think the question is, what is LSU's offense going to look like? Because the Clemson game, I kind of think we can throw that out now.

Yeah. Now, Florida's defense played really well against them. And that was the game they had Caleb Banks. It'll be the only game they had Caleb Banks all season, I think. So that's a pretty salty defense that's going to be better than most defenses you're going to play. They only scored 13 points against that defense because remember seven of LSU's points we're going to pick six. So I do think how LSU's offense has evolved and what they do is a critical piece of this game. But I also think LSU's defense is significantly better than any of this.

defenses that old miss the scene so far right um and i'm going right now to look this up but i wonder what um the rushing offense for lSU is this year and the rankings nationally i'm going to tell you here in one second ls u ranks 112 nationally in rushing yards let's see yards per carry this is national leaders of rushing offense go to yards per carry okay yards per carry average right there yeah thank you click click look at me put that thank you now let's see where they are for that 109. So not good. And they had that big run against Florida. Yeah, you take the 51-yard runaway.

This is not good. No, but like that to me is the thing. And this is what I worried about with LSU coming into the season because if you go back to last year, the games where they really struggle were the ones that they kind of abandoned the run and just let Garrett and Esmire keep chucking the ball. That's much easier for teams that have good pass rushes to defend because you just send the people after Garrett Nussmeyer, you heat him up, and you hope he makes a mistake. Yep. So anyway, I think this is all, you can kind of tell where this is going,

at least from my standpoint. I think Ole Miss is not, yeah, they're going to win the game and they're going to cover this, I think. And I also think, too, that this is going to be yet another instance of why the SEC is confusing, you know, because three weeks ago, LSU was in some people's minds, the number one team in the country. And now that we have more context on the Clemson game and all those things that, you know, hey, it doesn't look as good. So they have a chance to continue to win games and keep proving people wrong. But until then, I'm going to side with LSU. I think this is one of my favorite plays of the week, actually.

Yeah, so this is, I think I said a one and a half point spread. Ole Miss is actually a two and a half point favorite. Now, it's moving toward the rebels even more, which I think is interesting. And we saw a little bit of that happened in the Indiana-Illinois game last week, too, where it opened, I think, Indiana is a four-point favorite. By the time the game started, Indiana was a seven-point favorite. And people knew in that case, We'll see if they're right in this case, but it is very intriguing because I think people get caught up in the rankings and people get caught up in the polls.

And we don't know yet because I think a lot of LSU's ranking is based on where Clemson was ranked when they played. And it looks like Clemson's not very good. I also like the under here, under 55 and a half. Yeah, I think both defenses probably assert themselves in this game. This will be a good example of how good LSU's defense really is. I mean, look, it looked great against Clemson. I don't know how much that means. Five interceptions against Florida.

I don't care. Five interceptions is five interceptions. That is good no matter who you're playing. Yeah, I think something like 28, 24 Ole Miss or 2724, something in that range seems like a pretty. Well, and these two teams played a really tight game in Tiger. stadium last year i believe it went to overtime and old miss needed it bad and ls u.s u.s. beat them it was one of the reasons the old miss didn't make the playoff so there is a revenge factor here to the games on the road yep so i i will also take old miss to cover the two and a half

love that about you wow we are uh we are very much in agreement on a lot of these yeah so so now i can't even prove so like i've already like i haven't finished yet so now i can't prove that i didn't cheat off you. Well, we are different on a couple. Okay. We're different on a couple, but also it's not in my best interest to have the same picks as you. It's not. I mean, we could all just kind of move along in the same general direction, but both of our records will just go the way we go. I'm excited about this one, though, because this is one of those, like, it's not the biggest game of the day, at least on paper, because you have Oregon Penn State, you have Alabama, Georgia. This might be the one we end up talking about, though, at the end of the night.

Yeah, I think we will be talking quite a bit about this because regardless of the result, you have a 5-0 team with either 2-0 or 3-0 in the SEC, and that's going to be a being unbeaten in that conference is going to start to become rarer and rare as we go on. So, you know, I cannot wait for this game, and it's probably one of the, the ones that isn't going to get a lot of attention as we have some pretty big ones in the evening. Yeah.

And the thing, though, it could have a serious effect on the SEC race and the playoff race. And I think that is... Not could, Will. Yeah. And did last year. Yeah.

So I think don't discount that part of it. But yeah, like Ari said, I think the defenses here are the ones that will probably have the biggest say in the game. Ari, we now move to another SEC game. game that is also kind of playoff adjacent expectations, you know, what we thought teams were coming to the season versus what they are. You got a back against the wall team. You got a team that had a great game and a great win.

Now we want to see if they can do it again. It is Auburn at Texas A&M. So Auburn is coming off this loss in Norman that they were in the game. they're winning the game in the fourth quarter then they give up a drive Jackson Arnold gets sacked in the end zone might have been a little bit of bad beat there but not that I'm bitter

not that I'm bitter you gamble enough you're on the right side and the wrong side of those quite a bit Andy and I just got to let you know that you never remember when you win on them that's when you lose on them that's true that's true now Texas A&M the last time we saw them against an opponent of note they went to South Bend and won a game that the Aggies don't typically win.

And it was a big deal. And we came away from that thinking that, oh, my, this offense is really, really good. That Marcel Reed with Mario Craver and Casey Concepcion, the two receivers they got out of the portal, that this could be a really potent offense for the rest of the season. And I think we both said we think they're going to score in the 30s in a lot of their games. And I'm very curious to see what that looks like against what I think is a pretty good Auburn defense. Now, John Mateer didn't put up huge numbers, but was mobile enough to keep from getting sacked, which I think probably saved Oklahoma in that game.

Because his mobility versus Jackson Arnold, who is pretty athletic, but just could not get away from Oklahoma's defense. I think that was the biggest difference in the game. I am curious to see if Texas A&M can score like that on Auburn. I'm not sure if they can. Yeah, and I love the in-depth football discussion we're having, but there's a more important pressing discussion that we need to have about this game. Can Texas A&M have anything? Yeah, I think you're right.

Isn't that that that's the discussion here, man? Like we're talking about all these like, you know, here's the thing. I'm looking back at the box score from Texas A&M's 4140 win over Notre Dame. And Jeremiah Love carried the ball 23 times. and did not score or did not reach 100 yards. Right. Which I think is a very good sign for A&M because, you know, the one thing that we know about Auburn is that they are going to rely on moving the football on the ground. And as you pointed out astutely on the show on Saturday night, the reason why they had a chance to beat Oklahoma was their unwillingness to shy away from that.

Yeah, they kept running a ball. So my thing is if Notre Dame were to have shred Texas A&M more on the ground, I know they scored 40 points, but if they would have done more damage on the ground and it'd been harder to stop on the ground, I would feel less confident in A&M's ability to cover the spread. Because Jeremiah, I love in Jedarian Price, is about as good at one, two punches you're going to see in the country.

Right. And, you know, that Auburn runs the ball well, but they're not as good as a running team as Notre Dame. Yeah, now here's the difference, though, another key difference in the Auburn, Oklahoma game. If Jackson Arnold hits Cam Coleman on either of those deep shots where Cam Coleman was wide open that Arnold overthrew him. Auburn wins.

So I would assume that they're going to keep doing that. And look, CJ Carr had success throwing the ball against Texas A&M. Camp Coleman is one of the toughest receivers in the country to cover. If Auburn sees him in single coverage, they are probably going deep. And so you're going to get more opportunities like that. And if Jackson Arnold and him can get on the same page there, then this is a big problem for everybody. The thing that I can't get out of my head

is when they beat LSU last year, A&M this is, 38 to 23 and what LSU did not have an answer for Marcel Reed in that game. The following week, A&M went on the road to South Carolina and lost 44 to 20. And it was such a range of emotion because they did lose to Notre Dame in week one,

but at that point when they beat LSU, they improved to seven and one. And then you're starting to think, okay, well, maybe they will get out of the vortex of 8 and 4 and they finished 8 and 4. And then ultimately 8 and 5 when they lost to USC in the Vegas Bowl. Right now, I am on the apex and I believe that I think, because I've got a cult Aggie wife, that A&M is breaking through under Mike Elko. I think Mike Elko was the perfect hire for them. And I just truly believe, and maybe this is just me. me looking like an idiot, that A&M is about to turn the corner as a program.

And I don't know if that means that they're going to make the playoff this year or that they're not going to. I just don't think they're going to go eight and four. And I think on Saturday is the day at home where the old Aggies would have just tripped over themselves because they can't have anything nice. They're actually going to do it. I think I like taking the points here. I don't think that Auburn is going to win this football game. I think that's fair. I think it's fair.

I think it's going to be so close that either team can win it, which is why I'm going to take the points. That's why I'm going to take Auburn to cover this because you're giving me almost a touchdown. I don't feel like these teams are really a touchdown apart either way. Yeah, I'm going to take A&M, actually, just because. Oh, now you want to be different. I don't know, no, no, no.

Oh, this is currying favor with the bride. Britt doesn't care. I don't think that that's on the priority list for her. But she didn't watch the end of the Notre Dame game. She told me she was out with some friends because the best thing about being my wife in football season is that if you want to go have girls night or do things or go to dinner on Saturday nights, you have a built-in babysitter on the weekends that I'm home because I can't go anywhere and, you know, I can watch our daughter. And she went out with some friends for one of her for girlfriend's birthday parties. And they were walking out of the bar when the final drive of the A&M Notre Dame game was happening.

She said she took a later Uber because she wanted to watch the end of the game. Did she say, did she say whoop? Did she do any, any yell in your yell stuff? You know, I didn't know that you had to have graduated from A&M for that, not to be disrespectful, just so you know that. Oh, you're not allowed to, I can't whoop. I told her, can I, can I dig them? I don't think, I don't know what you can do.

All I know is you can't whoop, but she watched the game and she was like, that was really exciting. I was like, yes, sweetheart, that was really exciting. Back to the game, though, I think that A&M is going to be up five with about a minute half left and Auburn just don't take a safety don't do it again I think it's going to be a close game Andy I have a really hard time with this because the number and the power ratings are dead on I'm going to take A&M and this is the official turn the page on the program moment I wonder if last week's game against Notre Dame is the is the line of demarcation of when the old A&M dies and the new

A&M is born we shall find out but I got to tell you this and I'm sorry to all my A&M friends who are just punching their steering wheel listening. When number eight is single covered, they're going deep. Yeah, throw them the ball. If Jackson can hit him, it's going to be a problem. Ari, it's time. Can you hear him? Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, the whiteout.

Oregon at Penn State. Penn State is a three and a half point favorite at home. Thank God this game's not at noon. Yeah, three and a half. That hook there is a little. I'm sorry. I'm so sorry. I put Penn State number one in the offseason.

I like the makeup of their team. Both of these teams have played nobody. Oregon has had a. Oregon tried to play somebody in the somebody's chose not to be somebody. I mean, it dropped 70 whatever points on Oklahoma State. I don't know if that counts. It's nice. Nice.

Penn State, I have no clue about Penn State. And I think that this discussion will always get dragged into the pits of hell about the James Franklin statement era. Oh, but hey, Oregon, the AP voters did as a favor this time. Oregon is ranked number six. Yes. This does not count in the James Franklin versus top five teams discussion, even though it really does. Let's be real. Oregon is that type of team.

Yeah. absolutely that type of team. You know, and we actually thought about going to this game, but the fact that there's so much happening, it just would have been too much to not be home. We are going to find out a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot about both teams. Obviously, that's not some sort of revelatory,

you know, profound statement. But I really do want to know, as we go from Texas A&M to this pick, Andy, whether or not another program can turn the page. And I think that Penn State has been on pretty exciting, page for quite a long time, and they have been stuck in this purgatory a little bit of facing elite level teams and not being able to beat them. Oregon is very, very good. Penn State doesn't have to, you know, win this game in order to change their narrative. They got plenty of

opportunities later on in the year. They're playing Ohio State. I just, it's like, if it's not now for Penn State, when, like that's kind of where I'm at with this. And that's, said, give me three and a half points, dude. I had a feeling you'd say that, because here's my thing about this. It's the hook, dude. It's hard. If it was three, I might. I have, I now am looking at this game differently for Penn State after watching Indiana, Illinois. Because Indiana does not seem like this is an automatic win for Penn State. Indiana looks just as tough maybe as Oregon or Ohio State. for Penn State.

So we said all along, and we've said this since the 12th team playoff became a thing, that if Penn State just goes 10 and 2. So you look at, okay, in this particular season, you look at the schedule and you go, okay, they can lose to Oregon, Ohio State, it doesn't matter, still make the playoff.

I am not sure that's the case. I don't know if they can do that, because I don't know if they're going to beat Indiana. So I think they've got to win one of these two. against Oregon or Ohio State. This one's the one at home. I think they got to win this one. I think that you're mistaking with this line of thinking.

I think they can now lose to Ohio State and Oregon and then beating Indiana. We'll give them enough credit. But they have to beat Indiana. If they can't beat Oregon and Ohio State, they might not be able to beat Indiana either. The only thing I'm saying is that if they lose to Ohio State and Oregon beat Indiana, make the playoff and then lose early in the playoff,

nothing is different from last year. Even though Indiana is a very good football. I'm just not going to assume that they're going to roll over Indiana. No, and I don't want to. If Penn State is the team it was last year, that Indiana team will beat them. So this is the challenge to you, Drew Aller and to the Penn State receivers. You have to show up in some of these games. I mean, it's like a statistical, unbelievable situation.

for the amount of opportunities that Penn State has had in games like this that they have lost. Like eventually they are going to have to win one, right? Like they're like just from statistics standpoint. You would think it's like at a certain point the roulette wheel is going to land on green, right? Like it's like when is it going to happen for Penn State? I think that it's certainly possible that it happens on Saturday. Well, let's look at these numbers here. Let's look at their Trevor Pena, Kyron Hudson, Devante Ross.

Those are the receivers that they got out of the portal. Luke Reynolds is the tight. end who nobody's going to replace Tyler Warren, but Luke Reynolds is actually probably pretty close. Like he's going to do a good job. So Trevor Payne, 13 catches 12.8 yards per catch average. Kyron Hudson, 14 catches 11.1 yards per catch. Devante Ross, only five catches so far, but averaging 15.4. Ari, this is not a dynamic explosive passing offense. How are they supposed to beat Oregon. It hasn't been yet. Now, the question is, is, you know, how do they beat Oregon is they get them into a Penn State mucked up whiteout game. That's 16 to 13 with eight minutes left and, you know, win 20 to 17 or something. I don't know if that's mathematically possible, but you get what I'm saying. The one thing that you have to acknowledge about Penn State. And I know that this is, you know, the Ohio State rivalry isn't necessarily transferable to other teams, but Penn State has done a tremendous job in mucking. up games against very good teams.

They do a very good job against Ohio State traditionally and making games that should be, you know, right. But they didn't, it's interesting because they did play Oregon last year and did not muck it up. They got roped into an Oregon game. And played quite well. Actually played fairly well.

Now, it's interesting because Alar's stats were not super efficient, but he had some good throws. I think he had the best throws of his career in that game. Yeah. Yeah. Now, the other guy who blew up in that game was Kenny and Sadiq, the Oregon tight end who had I think he had two touchdowns in that game he is the biggest freak on the field in this game yep and he's already got three touchdown catches this season I am very interested

to see what he does because against this Penn State defense you can't do the traditional things like they they will take that away from you yeah but do but if you have someone who is a freak of nature who can do things that nobody else can do that's who you want to yeah they hand the ball off to him on fourth down sometimes don't they oh yeah he's kind of a swiss Army. He's everything. He can do everything. Is that like the new Tyler Warren is on the other team now? I don't know. Correct. More of a Brock Bauer situation, I think.

Yeah. And we interviewed him at Big Ten Media Day. He's a big kid. And people are like, I can't believe that somebody that big could be the fastest player on our team. Like, that's right. And he may actually be the fastest player in Oregon's team, which is amazing. So that's

the one I would watch for. And again, he had success against last year's version of the Penn State Defense, which was very good, and this one's also extremely good. So I don't know. Like, you're taking the three and a half, Ari, because you just, do you feel like Oregon's going to be that close? Give me Oregon money line.

Okay. You get a loss if they lose, though. I know. Give me the Oregon money line. I feel confident. I think it's a coin flip game. I don't know who the better team is, and I'll take three and a half because that's what it is.

If Penn State wins, I think they're certainly capable of doing so. I don't think that I would be stunned by it. but I think at a certain point, you just got to do it. So go do it, Penn State. It's kind of like the same thing that we were talking about in Nebraska. It's like, all the reasons why you can win are, you know, wonderful. Now, just go do it, you know. So Oregon Money Line is plus 135 right now.

Yeah. And I'll be curious to see if this moves a little bit because this has moved half a point, I think, since it opened or maybe even a point since it opened toward Penn State. But does it move? back as the week goes on, because I just, I don't, I think you're right. I think the way Penn State wins this game is muck it up, drag, drag Oregon into hell, make them play a, you know, three yards and a cloud of dust kind of game. But I just think Oregon's the more explosive offense.

Yep. And I think the more explosive offense always has a chance. Yep. So, yeah, we shall see, but white out, in state. college so i'm rooting for a penn state win uh by three because that means i win and you lose that's right that's right we have to figure out the bonus structure for the money lines we've had a couple of those yeah you you've won one i've won one already i think i think i lost oh you lost i had i had to see money line against notre dame that's that's the one i had in week one because it was

like two and a half points it didn't seem like i needed to to mess with the spread one more game are you marathon episode oh boy oh boy oh boy to an end with a bang here. Alabama at Georgia. Sanford Stadium between the hedges Saturday night. Georgia is a three-point favorite at home. The total is 53.5. All right, we've talked about this game quite a bit. The, are we worried about Alabama conversation that we had after Florida State? I said even after that, like in that moment, I said, I'm not worried about them against Georgia. They'll show up against Georgia. I'm worried about them against Vanderbilt and Missouri.

They're going to show up against Georgia. Yeah. Alabama, the Alabama we saw against Louisiana Monroe, the Alabama we saw against Wisconsin, we will see them against Georgia. The question is, is that good enough to beat Georgia? Or can Georgia beat that version of Alabama? Yeah, yeah. And honestly, I'll put my hands up here.

I am very unsure of what to make of Alabama so far this year. I think that it's possible that they didn't show up to Tallahassee with the right. attitude and they got smacked on the mouth by a really good team i don't know how much i think that their season is cooked as a result of it and you know it felt more dire obviously three weeks ago when that happened than it does right now oh the the spread by the way since i typed it and and we started this it is now georgia three and a half georgia minus three yeah so so that's a pretty big difference i think that tie simpson's playing with a lot of confidence i think that Georgia, although they had an open week here, it's coming off a dramatic win.

I am very much in the category of the SEC is going to have like four teams with three losses in November, and we're going to have to decipher through that crap again. And I think the way that we get to that point is by Alabama winning this. I feel like I knew I was going to take Alabama plus three and a half. It was opened at four and a half. It moved down to three. Now it's moving back the other direction. I knew I was going to take it as long as it was not less than a field goal.

I think this is going to be a typical Georgia-Alabama SEC dog fight, and I don't think that either team is going to be running away with this one. Georgia Alabama games have been weird. Last year's was weird. Alabama takes a 28-0 lead. Georgia comes back. Alabama then comes back again, and with the incredible throw to Ryan Williams from Jalen Milro.

I just, what we saw from Gunner Stockton and Knoxville gives me a lot of confidence in him, but a lot less confidence in Georgia's defense, if that makes sense, because Tennessee's offense, which has not been traditionally successful against George's defense, was very successful. But I was very impressed with Gunner Stockton. Coming through in crunch time did not seem phased by anything that was going on in Knoxville is a very tough road environment.

Now we find out about Ty Simpson in a tough road environment, and I know what you're going to say, but Andy, he's already lost in a tough road environment. He went to Tallahassee and lost. I didn't really think Ty Simpson was, was the issue for Alabama in Tallahassee. I thought he played fine, but just the whole everything was off that day.

We're going to find out about Ty Simpson in this game. We're going to find out how he handles that raucous road environment that Gunnar Stockton handled at Neeland Stadium. Ty Simpson is going to get the same treatment at Sanford Stadium, and he's going to be playing against a very good defense that while athletic, good, full of NFL players, is not perfect, has flaws. Was exposed by Tennessee.

Where were they specifically exposed? Over the top. Who's on Alabama's team again? Ryan Williams. What's he good at? Going over the top. I wonder if that's going to show up at all. I think it might.

I think it might. Although if those warts are exposed and you know Ryan Williams coming into your building, you probably fix eight two consecutive weeks straight. I'm making sure he doesn't get behind you. But like that might be a, I mean, he was the difference last year. That could be the difference again.

I think that there are going to be some explosive plays in this game. I don't think that we're going to be getting any of the vintage 6-3-9-6 game. No, no, no, that's not happening here. Teams are going to be scoring some points. And, you know, I, again, don't think that either team season comes to an end by losing this game, but Alabama certainly needs this game far more than Georgia. Yeah, if Alabama takes loss number two, it does put them really behind the eight ball with a very difficult schedule left to play.

You know, Georgia lost this game last year. year still went on to win the SEC. But again, this being at Sanford Stadium, this is the most exciting home schedule Georgia's had in decades. And this is a game that Georgia fans have had circled forever. Been inside Sanford Stadium, never seen a game there. Oh, it's a fantastic place to see a game. It's basically, so the lower bowl is dug into the ground.

All you see from street level is the upper deck. And it gets so loud because you are down inside. you're basically underground and it's it's an awesome atmosphere one of the best atmospheres in college football i cannot wait for this game because it is going to be you know we're going to be at our various spots and we'll have one tv on this game and one tv on organ penn state and we're going to see two very different which one gets the ipad which one gets the tv i might buy another tv i might buy another TV. Do you struggle with that every week? And like, do you, so here's what I do. And I don't know if this is good or bad. But when there are two games on that I'm very much interested in at the same time, I put the iPad in front of me and I give the iPad the volume. And then I put the other game that I'm more interested in watching the big TV, but it's not as loud so that I'm more so like I feel like that evens it out a little bit. I actually did that in the hotel the other night. When I was in a hotel going to over Auburn, Oklahoma the next day, and it was the Friday night.

So I had, I had Tulsa, Oklahoma State on the iPad with the volume up, just like you said, and I had Iowa Rutgers on the TV. Now, these two games very different than Tulsa, Oklahoma State and Iowa Rutgers. I do think maybe I knew need to go buy another TV just to give them both a place of honor. I have a setup where he has a, like a guest room, like man room. Yeah. Just no, no bigger than like a normal bedroom sized. He put a couch against the wall and he had four TVs.

mounted. Well, let me, let me ask you this. And they're all like perfectly measured and stuff. And it's pretty great. Let me ask you this. And I realize that our Penn State Oregon video is going to be a separate. So people who watch the whole show will have seen both of these, but people who are just watching the Alabama-Georgia video are only going to see this video. But I want to ask you this question, which would you be more scared of as the opposing quarterback? Penn State Whiteout or the Georgia home game that they've been the most excited about since, you know, the last 10 years.

You know, when I first went on your podcast five years ago at the athletic, my frame of reference has been or was at the time that the Penn State Whiteout is the most intimidating, loud, visually beautiful environment in college football. And in the time since, we have gone to some pretty big games. But I have not seen an environment that matches what Penn State brings. the table anywhere i i think this one comes pretty close and i've never been so i can't and i've heard that death valley and tiger stadium down at lSU is is yeah but i also think that there's a certain psychological element to the the visually imposing nature of i don't know you got

people and spike shoulder pads in this yeah it's no i'm just saying like from a macro level oh yeah when you were on the field and you're looking up at it it's far and the one thing penn state does is they do have the one end zone that has a student section that is is even more in intimidating just because... It looks like there's 30,000 people on it. But I'm telling you right now, what Ty Simpson's going to walk into at Sanford Stadium? But there's a combination. It is a absolute cacophony.

Yeah. I just like saying that word. And also, you know, it's not just what's intimidating from a crowd noise standpoint, visual standpoint. It's also the team you're playing. Yes. And I wonder if Georgia is better than Penn State this year. I think there's some question to that.

Well, that's probably a question to be settled in the playoff. The question is getting to the playoffs. And I don't think Georgia has to win this game to get the playoff. Like we said last year, they lost to Alabama and Tuscaloosa. They still made the playoff. Let's talk about the Kirby smart of it all. He's 1 and 6 against Alabama. Does that bother you at all?

No, it doesn't bother me either. It's not against Nick Saban this time. He's 0-1 against Kalin-Dibor. And he spotted Kalin-Dibor a 28-point lead and still almost won the game. Yeah. So I'm not really worried about that. I'm not. Also, half those losses were before Georgia became the final product.

of what they were under. Right. So it's like, I just, I've never been a big trends, what happened in 2017 matters now kind of guy. Yeah. And, you know, playing the top number one. Now, how many of those games was Alabama number one and probably more than half of them, right?

Right. So, like, you know, I don't know how much I take it into account, but I do wonder, you know, if Caitlin DeBork can illustrate the ability to beat Kirby Smart two years in a row, that changes the calculus on how maybe Bama fans view him. Oh, absolutely. So, um, and, like, Look, there is a possibility. I don't think this is going to happen.

I think this is going to be a close game no matter what. If Georgia does beat up on Alabama, we'll be having a very different conversation about Caitlin Boar next week, too. So there's a lot of potential possibilities here, but I think the most likely possibility is a very close game that turns on somebody making a mistake or somebody making a huge play. Like, for example, the throw gunner Stockton made to London Humphrey in Neeland Stadium, or you know, maybe it's Ty Simpson to Ryan Williams this time.

We'll find out. Ari, what is your pick in this game? Alabama plus three and a half. I'll take the points. I will take the Bulldogs to cover. I took them against Tennessee, lost by the hook. But my logic stands, I think Georgia is still Georgia, even if they're not the perfect Georgia that they used to be. You know what the Saturday reminds me of like a wedding food lineup where it's like a wedding that has really good orders, where it's like there are times.

where it's like there are times where you're like all getting you're at a wedding and you're all excited about the the reception and dancing and getting hammered with your friends and all that stuff and you go all day and then by the end of the night it's possible like when all things settle that the hors d'oeuvs were better than the dinner um you know i don't know dinner's gonna be pretty awesome in this case but this saturday has some pretty good hors d'oeuvre so these games at night might have some fireworks to live up to by the time this whole day is uh you know said and done. So I cannot wait to get the Saturday, and I know you can't too. And yeah, it's going to be a banger of a day. Let's go. And, of course, we will be breaking it down all week long, shows every day, 3 p.m. Eastern time on the on three sports YouTube channel. So subscribe and subscribe to On Three. Don't forget because you get things like, oh, I don't know, Chris Lowe, breaking all of the SEC annual opponents.

He did that Monday morning. If you want to watch that video, that's also on the On Three Sports YouTube channel. Thanks so much for watching. We'll talk to you on Tuesday. Thank you.