Andy & Ari On3 - College Football WEEK 6 PICKS | Miami-Florida State, Vanderbilt-Alabama, Texas-Florida, MSU-Nebraska

Episode Date: September 29, 2025

After a loaded week 5 in college football, the calendar turns to week 6 as Andy & Ari are ready to pick another slate ahead. Before the picks, Andy addresses the Sam Pittman news. To listen to Andy & Ari's instant breakdown of the Arkansas job, visit here: https://youtube.com/live/mn5zR2pZ44I (0:00-0:42) On Today’s Episode(0:43-2:21) BetMGM(2:22-3:32) Intro: Sam Pittman Firing(3:33-8:12) Week 6 Picks(8:13-10:59) Overall Records so far(11:00-19:57) Wisconsin at Michigan (-16.5)(19:58-20:59) Birthdays(21:00-21:55) Academy Sports + Outdoors(21:56-29:33) Clemson at North Carolina (+13.5)(29:34-30:38) GameTime(30:39-39:25) Texas at Florida (+7)(39:26-49:07) Vanderbilt at Alabama (-10.5)(49:08-56:04) Michigan State at Nebraska (-10.5)(56:05-1:00:38) Texas Tech at Houston (+11.5)(1:00:39-1:04:12) Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-14)(1:04:13-1:11:35) Miami at Florida State (+4.5)(1:11:36-1:12:14) Conclusion: Ryan Silverfield joins tomorrow! Who will come out on top after this week's picks?  Let us know in the comments below! Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Our show is sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoors! https://www.academy.com/c/backpack Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/GPCK7pYOhmQ Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy Nauri on 3 presented by BetMGM is a PICS show. Ari is getting closer to me, but he's not there yet. Can Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt go into Tuscaloosa and make it two in a row against Alabama? Or is Alabama back? Arch Manning and Texas head to the swamp. This Florida has anything left. And of course, in Tallahasse. Miami goes to Florida State. Can the Seminoles bounce back from their first loss of the

season or will the hurricanes keep on rolling, baby? You know what a time it is. Let's pick some games. We've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We will be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join BetMGM, you'll get access to a variety of Parlay selection features like same game parleyes, live betting options and more. If you haven't signed up for Bed-MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB, as in college football, CFB, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with Bed-MGM. Here's how that works. Download the Bed-MGM app and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See bedmgm.com for terms.

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Ari, we survived one of the busiest weeks in college football history. Not everybody did, at least employed. Sam Pittman fired at Arkansas on Sunday after that Notre Dame loss. And if you want to hear more about the Arkansas job who might get the Arkansas under Bobby Petrino as the interim Ari and I did a video on that on Sunday so check the On Three Sports YouTube page and

no no check it out I it's a good job it is I'm talking myself into Arkansas being a very very good job for somebody who wants to get rich now whether you're going to be successful there is another story but I do think if they pick the right person they can be successful there So we'll talk about that more as the weeks go on, as we delve into the candidate list, as Petrino tries to get the job as the interim.

But right now, we've got to pick some games this week. And this week versus last week is a prime example of why college football needs centralized scheduling commissioner, you name it. Because if they had one, if they had a commissioner, they would have looked at this year's schedule. And they would have seen the week before last and they would have seen this past week. and they would have seen this weekend and be like, okay, we're going to move some of these over here and some of these over here so they don't have all of the good games in one week. It is, it's crazy. Yeah, this past weekend was one of the most jam-packed weekends, I feel like, for like never

feeling like you're watching everything in every window. Like there was so much happening in every window that it was almost overwhelming. And, well, Virginia Tech beating NC State. you talk about flying under the radar like yeah there's no other there's no way you could have seen that yeah honestly it doesn't matter how much you like the sport there's just only so much a human being can consume in one afternoon it doesn't matter how many devices you have or you know how dedicated you are to the cause like you just can't do it you know we were watching the end of the Indiana Iowa game as two of the biggest games of the week were starting like it was just uh but

it was also amazing like I'm not going to complaining. And, like, the one thing that we always know, Andy, is that when we do these picks shows and we look ahead at the schedule for the following or upcoming Saturday, oh, man, this is going to be a drag. It's not going to be a drag. Like, it's going to be awesome. Something's going to happen. You know, it's never a dull Saturday. Although I think I probably would have liked to see, like, Oregon and Penn State, isolated and Alabama, Georgia. Hell, Ohio State, Washington. Separate Ohio State Washington out. because what is the what is the biggest big 10 game this week is it is it Michigan State

Nebraska is it is it Wisconsin Michigan like none of and you knew going to the season that those weren't going to be as big as as the other ones we just talked about so again like I'm so bad at math I really don't know how complicated it would be to move some of them around like it's pretty complicated yeah if you move if you like flipped Vanderbilt and Alabama and Alabama and Georgia one weekend. Like, does that just mess up the entire grid? Probably. I don't know how complicated that is.

But, you know, also it's okay to have weekends like this. And this is kind of a hot take for me, maybe not. But in weekends where you don't have top five matchups or high quality top 25 matchups all over the place, it allows us the opportunity to watch games that we otherwise would not be watching if other things were happening. Like, for me, like, I'm, like, looking forward to watching Michigan State, Nebraska. If that game we're on on Saturday, I wouldn't watch the second of it. I'm looking forward to, you know, seeing how good Minnesota is and if they can give Ohio State a challenge.

I'm super fired up for Texas A&M and Mississippi State because Mississippi State almost just beat Tennessee and now they're going to, you know, to play an A&M that people are fired up about. I'm excited about these games. Texas at Florida is interesting. We're going to talk about that a little bit. Texas Tech going to Houston has become. an interesting game because I don't think we thought Houston would be sitting where they are right now. So there is, there's action, maybe. Michigan State Nebraska, as you mentioned, is going to be

fascinating. Yeah, always going to be action. Always am thankful for a college football fall Saturday. And you know what? If we, if the byproduct of this is that we get to isolate Vanderbilt and Alabama and watch what could be a pretty crazy spectacle. And then we get a vintage Miami, Florida State game at the end of the day. And then also from a morbid curiosity standpoint, I think the most interesting game of the day, literally just interesting. I don't know if it means the most. You know what game I'm going to pick.

Clemson, North Carolina. No. But that's also a spectacle. Which one? Florida, Florida, Texas. Oh, yeah. It would be really interesting to watch. I think we're going to really enjoy that one.

And, you know, Texas is probably going to win. And there's not going to be any, like, earth-shattering, like, season narratives that are going to alter. But maybe, like, storylines will. Like, I think that, like, game for Archman. Depending on how Texas, Florida goes, something else may happen Sunday, which would be considered fairly big news. So we'll see how that goes. All right, records. We both.

came back in a big way last week. We gave you a bonus pick last week. So we picked nine games. We each gave you the over in Arkansas, Notre Dame, which hit barely, but it still hit. So I was six and four. Ari was six and four. I am 25, 23 and one against the spread so far this season. Ari is 22, 26 and one.

So Ari needs to come back hard this week. So are we ready, Ari? Yeah. I mean, you were blunt. slowing me out two weeks ago, and now I'm now I'm breathing down your neck. So that was more so because of the big swing two weeks ago. We had the same record, no ground gained. But, you know, hey, if we could both finish over 500 this year,

I think that would be a really good boom for the show. So I think I'm going to get there. So, yeah, I, it's so funny because I was, I kind of memory hold my picks last week. And I thought I was dying on Saturday. did not realize I was actually doing okay. Yeah. You're probably watching the Auburn game feeling like you were getting cooked

and then they won by the hook. So, you know. Yeah. But that really was just me getting rewarded for getting screwed the week before by Auburn by them taking the safety at the end of the Oklahoma game. That's what that was. My favorite Saturday pastime is when Andy and I are on the same side of a football game. and we both really liked it during the week

and it's in danger and Andy is texting the group chat like my pick is going to go up and like I have $500 on that game like you know my pride is worth more than your money are you do you that's what it is it is true like pride is important but like

I it's two days and I still haven't stopped thinking about the intentional Indiana safety I was like trying to go back through like the There was one in the NFL yesterday. I was just laughing at you again. Which one was that? I can't remember.

Oh, I didn't get, I had a good day in the NFL yesterday. But I was thinking back at like some of the things that have happened while we were live on the show. Like even that Mac bad beat. Like I think that that Indiana game was the worst bad beat of my entire gambling career. Really? That bad. Because of where they were on the field. I don't think I've ever, have you ever seen a person.

and run back 45 yards for a safety like that? I've never seen that before. That was so far away. But anyway, we don't have to dwell on that. Let's see if we can think about some good times and pick some winners this week. We can definitely do that. Let's start with the big noon game. Go to the Big Ten.

Wisconsin going to Michigan. And, oh, boy, oh, boy, oh, boy. We've talked about Wisconsin probably more than we thought we would. this season because it is just so bad and it's doesn't seem like there's any way for it to get any better. And we also knew going into the season that they were playing the toughest of the Big Ten schedules. And, you know, it's one thing like after the Michigan Oklahoma game, Ari, I think we weren't sure exactly what Michigan was. We weren't sure exactly what Oklahoma was. And so if this game it happened then we'd be like okay i i think wisconsin's got a puncher's chance is michigan going to run for

five hundred yards in this game and just mush them probably you know i don't know if you get this feeling andy like whenever we talk about wisconsin like i just feel like the mood goes down like it's frustrating i feel so bad for those people because it's just even when teams are having rough seasons there are certain things that you can like latch on to and be like yeah well here's a reason to believe or here's a reason that things can go well like when you watch wisconsin this year it just feels hopeless and pointless like and it's just it's worse than i ever thought it could have been so like right now as we're talking about this game like if you are thinking about taking wisconsin i don't think that you are but if you are can you like give me a reason why you

would because I just don't know what it you know this is probably a pretty sharp line wouldn't surprise me if the it was a 17 point game you know at the end of it but could you imagine how miserable of a feeling it would be to bet on Wisconsin and have to watch that for four quarters hoping that it hits like it's just would be it's just so bad like you know what's give me a positive do you have a positive about Wisconsin this year? the food in Madison is exquisite you know you're in Madison is exquisite that there's nothing when we were in Madison last year was so good do you remember that yeah we went to stay street brats it was amazing god that was good that's a positive but the thing is I just don't know

I don't know what you do here because a couple weeks ago right before they played Maryland And I texted Ari on the Wednesday of that week, and I said, Ari, what is Wisconsin's record if they lose to Maryland? And he immediately texts back. He's like, oh, two and ten's in play. Two and ten is very much in play. Because this schedule is just maniacal. And, you know, I don't know. The spread on this game is 16 and a half.

It's Michigan by 16 and a half. Michigan style might make it where Wisconsin's, can get in through the back door. But I will say, okay, before we go too far into this and we heat too much dirt on Wisconsin, last year they did give Oregon absolute hell, even though they were having a bad season. So is it possible? And they were tough on Penn State for most of that game, too.

Is it possible that they have one of those games in them that they can give a pretty good team a really, really tough game? you know i don't think michigan is that good yet i think they're going to be really good next year when they add to the portal yeah that that's that's the problem like michigan's not good yet but they're a team that can against a bad big 10 team roll it over i don't think nebraska's a bad big 10 team and they kept hitting explosive runs on them so like what are they going to do to the bad teams yeah the the explosive run ability that michigan has it's like conventional wisdom would be like, okay, well, you know, Michigan might have 14 play drives that

take up eight minutes off the clock and 16 points is a lot of points. If there's a weird turnover or Wisconsin gets an early score or something, you might be able to talk yourself into it. But I don't, like Michigan, I think is an average to a slightly above average football team this year. And I think that that makes that they're miles better than Wisconsin. And the game's in Ann Arbor, right? So like, I don't know. I mean, I'm laying the points. I just, I might be wrong on this because, again, like, it's a lot of points. And, like, this is a game I would never play in real life because gambling is supposed to be fun. And this would just be miserable.

Well, this week is an entire week of games you'd never play in real life. Yeah. Well, that's not true. Not all of them, but quite a few of them are games you would not play. The other, the other interesting part about this is Sharon Moore is back for Michigan. Because, remember, he was suspended for the Central Michigan and Nebraska games. feels like it's been a long time because they had that off week but he's back i would assume that makes michigan's operation cleaner and smoother although it was pretty clean and smooth under bifogia i i don't really think they missed a beat yeah yeah so just laying

yes yeah i yeah i'm taking michigan to cover the 16 and a half yeah i'm looking at the power rating metrics looking at tissue index and some other things and like the line is pretty sharp so i don't know if there's any edge or extra few points to get on on the direction one way or the other so i'll just lay the points and you know expect michigan to break off 80 yard runs until they win by 17 yeah that's probably that's probably that's probably how it is you know michigan's up by 24 late in the game Wisconsin scores a garbage time touchdown it's and of course the Wisconsin fans, I'm curious because it's funny how we crowdsource Wisconsin fans comments a lot. And we've gotten some great emails from the Wisconsin fans. They're really thoughtful.

And I wonder how they feel about this. Like do they want, obviously you want your team to win. But do they want them to lose close or do they want this if they're going to lose to be an unmitigated disaster so that maybe it forces something different to happen? Um, it would have to be a long, continuous season long, unmitigated disaster, I think, for them to pony up the money, right, Andy? It's a massive amount of money. But Ari, that's on the table. The massive season long, unmitigated disaster is on the table. Do you know what it's like? This happened to me last year. And you know, you and I are salaried employees, so we don't have a very. complicated, you know, CPA tax situation. You just put, put your, you're, right, W-2 in and whatever.

My wife has the most complicated tax situation in the history of mankind. And I'm not going to go into the details of why, but it's, it's a nightmare. And one year- Anything illegal, we promise. Well, she's a bookie, actually. You know, that little gigam thing, she was just like happy because all you people that laid the points on A&M had to pay this week. But

no, all kidding aside, it feels like when you owe the IRS money, you don't want to pay, but you might have to. And that's kind of what it seems like here. If the circumstances get bad enough, like it might be expensive and it might be hard to swallow, but you might not have a choice. Yeah, your hand may be shaking, but you're still writing that check

to the government. And it's it's probably if they're sitting there staring down the barrel at three and nine or two and ten, that is what they might have to be doing. Producer, River, please put that schedule up one more time so people can see the just depravity of this schedule. Michigan this week, Iowa next week, Ohio State the following week, at Oregon, Washington, at Indiana, Illinois, at Minnesota. Wisconsin will be double-digit underdogs in most of these games, maybe not Iowa, but most of these games. And only because the Iowa, Wisconsin total,

is probably going to be 13. 11, yeah. So we're both taking the point, or both laying the points here. We're going to go with Michigan. I don't feel good about it. Maybe the game will turn out to be like a Big 10 muck, but I have no ability to,

to have to, like, cling hope to Wisconsin showing up and trying to play a game that's competitive. And before you go to the next game, Andy, can I just say something because I'm embarrassed? By all means. Today's Andy's birthday, and today is River's birthday. And we didn't start the show talking about it. And, like, today's my daughter. Because I can lead the show and because I, I'm the one that welcomes everybody in and I'm not going to say happy birthday to myself, though I am an asshole for not saying happy birthday to River. So happy birthday, River, we love you.

Let's pop up here for a minute. what's up fellas birthday who you I was joking with them last night I was joking with them last night but the three most important people in my life's birthday today

River Andy and my daughter so you know congratulations for making it around the sun one more time and I don't know if this is bad podcasting but I love you guys I'm so happy to be doing the show with you and yeah I hope you get a good meal tonight

and enjoy it yeah thank you Ari I'm at the Orlando touchdown club tonight. So I always get a good meal when I go there. So, there you go. Good stuff. So actually, great place to get your birthday presents. Academy sports and outdoors. I mean, there's plenty of different coolers you could get me. There's some grill stuff you could get me.

Tailgate season is here and nobody, nobody gets SEC fans ready for game day like Academy, sports and outdoors. By your local academy store, shop online, and academy.com to find grills, jerseys, and more. Fun can't lose, and neither can you with tailgate gear from Academy. Academy Sports and Outdoors is the official sporting goods and outdoor retailer of the SEC. But even if you're not a fan of an SEC school, you've got an academy nearby. You can go to academy.com. Load up. And, hey, if you want to get a Yeti cooler for River, we know where to find him.

All right, Ari, let us stay in the noon window and let's talk about planning, advanced planning. North Carolina was very excited about this upcoming football season. They'd hired Bill Belichick, lots of Super Bowls. We've talked about all that. One of the things that came with hiring Bill Belichick is North Carolina expected to have some of the best TV, you know, time slots in the country. And of course, with Clemson coming to town, and Clemson, getting all this massive preseason hype, they figured this is definitely going to be a primetime game.

So let's hire Ludacris to do a concert before the game. Assuming that that Ludacris concert would be about 6.30 at night before an 8 p.m. game. That is not how it's going to go. This is a noon game. North Carolina is a 13.5 point underdog to a Clemson team that is not very good. And Ludacris is going on it like 10 a.m. Not your fantasy. you asked what's your fantasy that's not it but eight six four versus nine one nine i can keep

going with this keep going i want to know them those throw them how um how fired up do you think north carolina fans are for ludicrous at 839 a m they're going to be like move bitch get out the way so they could get out and see ludicrous no they're not they're not luda uh yeah he used I feel so bad for Ludacris, because he's going to walk out there and be like, I could have, I could have been doing Fast and Furious 13 right now. Yeah. And now, Ludacris made a pretty good life for himself. I think he's okay.

Think about this. When you're, your radio, Atlanta radio DJ Chris Bridges in the late 90s, and you're like, hmm, I'm pretty, I'm pretty lyrical. I got a good sense of humor. Maybe I'll try this rapping thing. Who knows? maybe I'll get in a movie someday. This man is private jets everywhere.

Like, this is probably going to be the worst thing that happens to ludicrous in about a five-year period, having to perform at 10 a.m. before a game where North Carolina is going to get bombed by a bad Clemson team. I do think that the check probably clears either way. So good for him. I would do whatever anybody asked me to if they paid me. We could do a live show. We do. Have you watched this show?

Yeah, let's just try to book a live airing of Andy and Ari on 3 at like 4.30 a.m. outside of Waffle House in the middle of the SEC country. I'll do it. Like, come on, let's go. I think we could get a crowd. What? Okay. We'll put this to the audience.

So email us, hit us up on social media. Which SEC town would we draw the biggest crowd in at 4.30 in the morning in front of a waffle house? Athens, Gainesville, Tuscaloosa? Oxford? I don't think you missed there. I think we may have to do this, but we may have to do like a bet where if we lose, we've got to do a 4.30 a.m. show at a Waffle House.

But ludicrous in Chapel Hill for this game, Clemson first game since the loss to Syracuse, North Carolina first game since the loss of UCF. Did you see, we talked about games that you couldn't really get a whole a good look at because of what else was going on how much of uh UCF kansas state did you see uh zero i mean i watched a little bit of it it seemed like avery johnlin locks in place yeah yeah yeah i think that uh from what i understand and this is what i do during the week and i go and review games i missed just so when we talk

about them i don't feel stupid but my understanding of it from the outsider view is that Avery Johnson ran really well and it opened up their offense and that Kansas State fans were a little upset about the notion that like this could have been happening all year long and it just hasn't been because the last time I watched a whole Kansas State football game was the Friday night game against Arizona a few weeks ago and I got to tell you man that was painful to watch painful yeah so it wasn't it wasn't that painful could I did get to watch a little bit of this but this is a long way of saying, like, UCF's not that great, and they destroyed North Carolina.

Yeah. Clemson is bad for Clemson, but they still have really good players. And oh, by the way, Dabo really needs a win real bad. This could get hideous, absolutely hideous. Yeah. I don't know, I don't know which way you're leaning here, but. You don't? I haven't telegraphed it.

Oh, by the way, I think I said this, but maybe I didn't for the podcast listeners. Clemson is a 13.5 point favorite on the road in Chapel Hillier. That was sarcasm. I am going to go the other direction, I think. You think this is the week they turn it around? I don't know about turning it around. You think this is the week they lose by less than two touchdowns? Yeah.

I guess that is turning it around. That's the bell bell. It would be. Dude, how many teams don't come up fired up when they've got ludicrous performing before the game? I don't understand what you're not seeing about this. The players don't get to go see ludicrous.

I know, but the buzz is in the air, man. I am so down on Clemson right now. Like, it feels like something is, it almost looks like they don't care when they're playing. and I know that's probably not true because I have a lot of respect for Davosweeney and I'm sure his players love him and they love each other and they're not going to just lay down I'm going to close my eyes and I'm going to take 13 and a half until

Clemson shows me that they can not you know blow somebody out I might it might look stupid they might win 63 to 10 and I might look like an idiot happened last week I took Arkansas plus five and a half because the line didn't make any sense and Notre Dame could have scored 300 points if they wanted to give me the 13 and a half this seems like it might be a little high from a trend perspective with the way that Clemson's playing. I might have wanted to see the spread

somewhere around 10 or 11, maybe even 9.5 so I'll take the 13 and a half and hope for the best. So Bill Belichick deflected questions about whether it's going to be Geo Lopez or Max Johnson starting a quarterback. I'm not sure it matters. give me Clemson to cover I know they've been bad

North Carolina has been worse so yeah Clemson feels like they're bad because something's not working North Carolina is just authentically bad right North Carolina doesn't have the talent North Carolina is in the position Wisconsin is in

Clemson has players they just can't seem to put it all together on the field which that's not easy to fix but you can fix it against a bad team. Yeah. Maybe it doesn't get fixed when they play Florida State, but you can fix it now.

Give me 13 and a half and make me feel disgusting about it. Oh, we're all dirtier for having picked that game. Let us go, actually, before we go to the swamp, let me tell you how you can get tickets to that Clemson, North Carolina game. You can get them for as low as 80 bucks right now on game time. You can also get Florida State Miami tickets in Tallahassee. They're considerably more expensive on game time. But any game you want to go to, last minute doesn't matter.

Game time has what you need. Download the game time app or deem the code staples and get $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply, of course. You go to the app, you pick your ticket. Most stadiums, they show you exactly where you're sitting. You can look at the view from your seat. Also, the price you see is the price you pay. They do not tack on 90 extra dollars of fees like a lot of places do.

If it says the ticket is $82, and I did find a nice, really nice seat for Clemson, North Carolina for $82. That's the price you pay. So go to Game Time, download the app, redeem the code Staples for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. All right. Let's go to the swamp. Where tickets still, you know, not cheap because this is Texas's first visit to Florida. Texas is a seven-point favorite in a game that, I mean, before this season, this was the game everybody circled. This was the one everybody in games, but was so excited about because, you know, even if Florida splits LSU and Miami.

If they can beat Texas, it means they can be a playoff contender. That is not the issue anymore. That is out the window. Florida is one in three. They've lost to USF. They've lost to LSU. They've lost to Miami. Texas comes in.

don't know what Arch Manning is. He looked really good against Sam Houston State. He has not looked great in his other games. And Florida's defense, not really Florida's problem. Floor's offense is the problem. So, Ari, what do you think happens when Archmanning plays against a banged-up but still fairly formidable Florida defense? I think he has a pretty solid game.

I don't know that it's going to be like electric. I don't know if he's going to be tossing in for 400 yards. I think he's going to have an efficient game where he throws for 225 yards and maybe two or three touchdowns, maybe an interception, but he's going to look like a pretty good quarterback on the road. That would be my projection for the game. You know, somebody once said, I think it was Jim Truzzle used to say this when I stuck in my head as I was 21 years old. It's never as good as it feels and it's never as bad as it feels. I wonder if we're just like right in the middle.

middle somewhere with Arch and he's still somebody that's going to ascend as the year goes on. I think that Florida has a pretty good defense. They obviously lost a very important piece in their interior defensive line. That's going to hurt, but they still have really good athletes in the secondary.

That's a defense that has proven it can get after you. Like, I don't think that I'm under the impression that Texas is going to go on the road with how they've looked this year and, like, light up the scoreboard. You know what? play i really love here more than anything hmm the number is low but i like the under of 43 and a

half i do too this strikes me as like a 21 17 24 17 type game um maybe even if you want to say that florida's offense is going to be inept you can add make it make it 31 10 or something but like it's not to me going to you could make it you could make it essentially the the miami score with the Miami score is 26-7, like Texas's defense is really good. So if you think Florida is going to suddenly break out offensively, this is not that defense that you're probably going to do that against. There probably are some teams later on the schedule where if they were to put it all together, I think they could have a good game against them.

But this Texas defense is probably as good or better than Miami's defense. And you saw how difficult it was for Florida to move the ball on them. I'm curious. Look at your guy, T-Shoe's index. I just pulled up the Parker Fleming's advanced stats preview on this. You can go to CFBGraphs.com for that. You can match up any teams and any match-up. Parker's advanced stats have Texas winning this game by 15.

Okay, I'm looking at T-Shoe. The spread on his is eight. Interesting, okay. Which is just an extra point, but also kind of significant because it clears the primary number there. but like um i think that there is one unit that we are certain of in this game of the four texas defense yes texas defense yep and i don't think that dj lagway is cooked i know that he's been the butt of a lot of jokes i still think that his potential oozes and like eventually i

think he's going to get there whether that's at florida or somewhere else i do think that Like I still project him to be a first round pick eventually. Like, and I don't know if that sounds insane, but I think that he will be based on it. It does right now, but I do think if he, you know, is in a different off. He's probably going to wind up in a different offense next year, whether that's at Florida or somewhere else. And maybe it's, maybe it is different for him because he certainly does have all the tools. But yeah, you still, you still need to see it put together in the field. The problem is, and we keep coming back to this, but even if he was playing great this year,

even if he was having the season that you and I had expected him to have, playing as Texas's defense still would have been really hard. Exactly. You saw that Ohio State offense against Washington, which I think a lot of it was them just playing conservatively. You saw when they opened it up a little bit, how easily they moved the ball. They never moved the ball easily against Texas.

No. Texas outgained them in that game, and we were burying arch afterward. like Texas's defense is really really good yeah and that's the direction I'm headed in here Andy like I'm going to lay the seven I think that just Texas in general is a touchdown better than Florida like even if things would have gone the way we thought they would in Texas was my national champion coming into the year Florida was a team we thought could contend for a national or for a playoff spot maybe even a national championship of everything broke their

way but even in that scenario I still think Texas would have been been a touchdown better than them and i know it's on the road i don't know how fired up the swamp will be i don't know if the fan you're there uh are they apathetic yet i'm not i don't know they're they're yeah they want to change but they're excited because texas has never been there before so they're excited to see the burn orange they're excited to see you know the texas come in you know how do their fans come into a town like they've just never seen it before so i think there is a little bit of a buzz just because of that. But the fact of the matter is, they are sitting there going, if Texas blows Florida out, it needs to happen. Like, I think the Billy Napier thing has run

its course. The question has been, okay, how do you do it? When do you do it? If Texas blows them out, that might be the time because the players will have played five games for the most part. so you're not worried about people just shutting it down. And I just don't know, like you're going to A&M the next week. It doesn't get any better. The Mississippi State coming to Gainesville doesn't look like an easy win at all anymore. Ole Miss doesn't look like an easy win. Tennessee's not an easy win.

Florida State's not an easy win. Obviously, there's a Georgia game. So there's no good time. So if it's ugly, if the offense is still completely stagnant, then it might be time because it's it's probably going to happen at some point so at some you just got to rip the band-aid off at some point it's just like florida could get better offensively you would never know it because of who they're playing they could have gotten better the last few weeks but even if they are really really good it's hard to score on texas so um give me

yeah my alma mater has been uh really good to me in the picks this year or at least in the last couple games and uh not in a great way for for you know people who are fans of my alma honor but picking against florida has has helped me in this in this contest this year so i'm going to do it again give me texas to cover we're in agreement again we still we don't try to do this i swear we don't we will be on the other side of some games yeah we are on the other side of the North Carolina Clemson game and that's going to be an embarrassing Yeah, I know, and you have no shot of winning that one, so that's great.

I have no shot, zero shot. It's easy, it's free money, go lay all the, all your whole life savings and that's, that's, and that's, this is what he's going to say to me, how come you don't put your life savings on it? Last night, last night, I was on the phone with a buddy. And the buddy told me, uh, Texas, or the Dallas Cowboys plus six and a half is, is an amazing spot. go take them that's the play and i said all right i'm going to go massive on this and he goes well hey

well don't go massive and i said what happened what happened to your confidence i just said i was going to go massive and you backpedal you think that that he ended up being right um i was going to say he was right i don't know if you watched the game last night did you watch the game or were you too busy celebrating your birthday i we were at hallelujah horn nights but i was watching it on on my phone so yeah i did see a lot of it was i've never seen a team get systematically dominated did for an entire half of football and be winning after it. But that's what happened last night. So anyway, yeah.

Next, next game. Let's head to Tuscaloosa where Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores are coming in. Alabama coming off a win at Georgia. Alabama's a 10.5 point favorite, Ari. And this is one of those games that we've been talking about since the offseason. If you watch that SEC Netflix show, they had the whole episode on Vanderbilt beating Alabama. So everybody's been able to relive it in a good way and a bad way. I don't know that what happened last year necessarily has bearing on this year,

but I would imagine it certainly keeps Alabama from being surprised by anything that happens with Vanderbilt. Yeah, no question. And, you know, like last year when Vanderbilt beat Alabama, it shocked the world and it was like a, you know, we're going live right now, everybody write a column. Like, that was a big, big deal last year. and if it were to happen again this year I don't I mean it would be a big deal don't get me wrong like Vanderbilt improving to what would be 5 and 0 or 6 and oh and beating Alabama on the road and you know that would have been like a statement for where they stand in the SEC race but

it wouldn't be such a heavy moment the way it was last year and that like that wasn't supposed to happen like this is a 10 and a half point spread you know it's you know Alabama is still the favorite they're playing at home but Vanderbilt's a really good team this year and I think that you know, everybody's pretty much caught up to that. It feels more like a big SEC game than it does a payback little brother scenario. And, you know, Rinderville's got a long way to go before they're not Alabama's little brother or everyone's little brother. But, man, they've made a lot of progress in the last few years.

And, you know, I could conceivably see them win this game. And I don't think that it's crazy to think that. Well, and it's interesting because Diego Pavi got interviewed over the summer and he said, yeah, I came back to win the national title. Like, ha, that's cute. It's funny that you said that, but you play for Vanderbilt. I don't know that we're laughing so much now about that. I think Vanderbilt has looked pretty awesome.

And, you know, if we look at last year, you know, Vanney's still lost to Georgia State before they beat Alabama. Like, they played Georgia State this year and just absolutely annihilate, beat him 70 to 21. They beat South Carolina 31 to 7 in a game where Lenora Sellers got knocked out, but I don't know that it would have mattered if he hadn't because, Vandy was just absolutely dominant. And that was on the road in the SEC.

So this is definitely a different Vanderbilt team. This is certainly the most talented Vanderbilt team in a long, long time. You know, I go back to the two nine-win teams that James Franklin had there. He had some talent on those teams. I think this one's better. I think this one's more capable of playing with the teams at the top of the SEC.

Because if you go back to those years, you know, they still had to, when they played Georgia, when they played Florida when they were good. They just, they couldn't quite match up. I think this Vanderbilt team is going to be able to match up with the better teams in the SEC. Even if it can't beat them all, it's not going to get blown out.

Right. And I've got a fun statistic that I looked up in the offseason about this game, and I'm not sure, or not the off season in the last few weeks. Alabama is 0-1 under Kaelan. DeVore's leadership in games in which the opposing team's quarterback talked trash to them in the offseason. I know people like, you know, gambling data, you know, picking games. The sample size is admittedly small, but Tommy Castellanos did talk a lot of trash and backed

it up. That's true. Yeah. And I don't know if we know this yet. You know, we're still gathering context and information. But, you know, life depending on. on it right now, I would probably say that Vanderbilt is a better team than Florida State from top to bottom, no?

I don't know that I'd say that, right? Maybe not. Let me put it this way. If they played each other, my line would be less than a field goal. Yeah, I think Florida State might have better players from top to bottom, but I think that Vanderbilt has proven it's a more functional team from top to bottom. Like they play together and they believe in a way that I think Florida State's going to have to build.

And we'll get to that game later on in the show, but you know how hard it is. And Mike Norvell is finding out that, you know, going undefeated or changing your process to go from 2 and 10 to 10 and 2 is a very difficult transition. And like Vanderbilt's not making that transition this year. Vanderbilt is trying to go from 6 and 6 to maybe 8 and 4 or 9 and 3. Yeah. Although Diego Pavia believes they're going 12 and 0. And look, I think if you're Diego Pavia, you have to believe that. part of what makes Diego Pavia, Diego Pavia is he truly in his soul believes that they are going to compete for the national title this season.

And that's the only way they can go to Tuscaloosa to win this game. Like they all have to believe that. There's also so much put into the fact. And like, I buy into this, Andy. I think you and I agree on this. But like I picked Alabama last week because I knew Alabama was going to show up for a playoff like environment and play like high level football. And I think that part of the notion of the reason why. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt last year was because they didn't play passionate, good, team,

complimentary, like, fiery playoff level football. They thought they would just walk out and win, and they got their asses beat. And part of it was not a fluky game. Part of the analysis of this year's game, though, is that Alabama will not be caught sleepwalking. And I agree with that. I agree with that. But the other half of the analysis of that, that isn't said very often, which is Vanderbilt has already done it. They believe it. They're undefeated and they're fired up too. You know, like, it's not just because it's like, oh, Vanderbilt you know, snuck in in the middle of the night and stole

Alabama's watch and now they have an alarm system. It's like, no, they took that from them and they can take it from them again, dude. Yeah, and Vanity's not going into this game going, oh, I hope we can compete. I hope we catch a couple breaks. They're not feeling that way. Now, here's

the thing. If Ty Simpson is as good on third down as he was against Georgia, Alabama's going to win this game. because they were awesome. That is what Alabama was doing to Georgia on third and fourth down is just breaking their back over and over because you get the defense's hopes up. You get the whole team's hopes up. Okay, we're going to get a stop this time. And then you just stab them in the heart every single time.

It was unbelievable to watch because I've not seen a quarterback do that to a Georgia defense in a long, long time. and he's so calm out there. It's really been impressive to watch his growth as a quarterback. And we said all along, we said the day of the Florida State game, Ty Simpson wasn't the issue against Florida State. Ty Simpson, you know, played fine, but they got physically manhandled. Alam is not getting physically manhandled now. They haven't in their last four games.

So I think they're probably going to be in a situation where, they will come out of this you know they'll come out of the tunnel they will be pumped to play Vanderbilt they will not think they're going to win just because they're Alabama and that's the best thing that can happen Alabama in this game yeah you know and I do think that losing a game that you're embarrassed to lose or you know not showing up in a game and everybody giving up on you can play into a psychological advantage I think we saw that happen last year with Ohio state to a certain extent. So that said, give me the points, dude. I'll take 10 and a half points. It's a lot of points. And we don't plan this. Like I said, I'm taking Diego Pavi to cover.

I don't know if he's going to win, but I think he's going to get him close. Yeah. I mean, Diego Pavia is number one in your college football dog rankings. So he is the number one dog, though, Ty Simpson is climbing quickly. Yeah. Yeah. You know, people thought maybe we were, or I was specifically overreacting to Alabama's win over Georgia. I think that they are a very good football team that could conceivably win the national title still. But playing at the level of Georgia the week after they did it is still not something that I'm 100% confident that Kaylon. Right. There is a bit of a body blow situation too.

That second half against Georgia was so physical. and the defenses were pounding on the offenses on both sides of the ball. I just, that matters. Now, it may not catch up to Alabama now, but it's like they got to play Missouri, too. They're going to play Tennessee too. So that's the tough part. And it's not limited to Alabama. Vanderbilt's going to have the same problem as they move forward in the SEC.

They just happened to have played Utah State last week. So this is going to be so much fun because. Whatever happens, we're going to come up with some sort of wild. Like, it's either going to be, oh, my God, Vanderbilt did it again. Oh, my God, Alabama's burning down, or it's going to be Bama's back. Florida State loss is now totally erased. And Bama's going to be fine. They're going to win the SEC.

They're going to compete for the national title. Like, we are going to massively overreacted this game, and I cannot wait to do it. Can't wait. Yeah. But yes, give me Vanderbilt to cover. Ari, let us now move back into the Big Ten. When last we saw Nebraska, they were losing to Michigan, giving up lots of explosive runs, but not losing by a bunch. They lose by three in that game.

We talked about Dylan Riola quite a bit last week. I don't have a problem with, actually, can I tell you this? Can I make a confession? Sure. I think Dylan Riala should lean more into the Patrick Mahomes cosplay because it makes everyone so mad. I've completely come around on that. I was listening to several people last week saying,

just stop doing it. Just stop it. You don't have to do that. I like, no, do it all you want because it pisses people off and it's wonderful because Dylan Riala is not Nebraska's problem. Nebraska's problem is protecting Dylan Riala and establishing a run game. So the question is, can they do that? Nebraska is a 10-and-a-half-point favorite at home against Michigan State.

Ari, I don't know about you. Were you a little shocked by how big this line was? Yeah. You know, Michigan State isn't, from what I understand right now, as good as Michigan. And Nebraska at home was in that football game and, you know, conceivably if a few plays went in different direction. What kind of game was it? Football game. Oh, awesome.

Wasn't a rugby game. when a cricket match shit yeah i think i've been better about redundancy but he's like you know you don't just like lose a hundred pounds in five minutes like you you know you know you're all regret the journey it's not what's going to be funny is when i start doing it yeah i am redundant a lot but back to the game i don't know if your confidence is shaken at all in Nebraska. Like I had my helium balloon up in the air thinking about Nebraska going. It's like the first touchdown was scored at Memorial Stadium.

You let your balloon go? And the balloon didn't pop, but there's a leak in it right now for me. It seems like I was not. Yeah, I was not happy with the way they allowed explosive runs against Michigan. And again, they got to establish a run game. to keep people out of Raola's face to at least let the, you know, keep the defense's honest, keep them from just pinning their ears back because Raola,

his best throws against Michigan were all ones where he escaped pressure because he was under pressure every single time, every single time. And we can all agree that Ryola has done a much better job than he did last year at escaping and evading pressure and extending plays. Like I thought that he, that was going to be something that he struggled with his entire career. And I thought that that was like a really good like bonus check. for like, hey, this is a good reason to feel good about Nebraska.

That said, getting bullied in the lines of scrimmage is a harder problem to fix. And Michigan State won't be able to do it as well as Michigan does because that's what Michigan is. I don't know that Michigan State has the capability to pop a 75-year touchdown run on you. And I think that's the concern because I feel like if Nebraska could limit that, even if they're struggling to get run game established they probably can score enough points to win this game now enough points to beat them by double digits is another another story entirely which is why I'm a little shocked at this line yeah so I'm leading like you are with taking the points because the line I think should be more like you know six and a half maybe seven so I'm going to take what I believe to be value

here but I think Nebraska is a better football better team you know what I'm going to take Nebraska to cover here. I'm going to have some fate that they're going to improve and also because we're going on Matt Rules podcast this week. We are. I don't know if the people know that. He has a new podcast. It's called House Rules. He's had some amazing guests. And this week, no one said yes. And so he's going to have us. But it is, I think they're due for something like this. I think it's possible. Now, Michigan State 3 and O going into the USC game They were actually in the USC game

They were down a touchdown Going into the fourth quarter But then USC sort of blew it open after that And given what we saw From USC against Illinois Where like a physical team that leans on USC's defense Can get what they want

Michigan State didn't really take what they wanted Against USC's defense So I don't think they're going to be able to take what they want against Nebraska's defense, which I, so that gives me some faith that Nebraska can actually cover 10 and a half. Yeah. And I think that there's reason to have faith in Nebraska. You know, one game doesn't define your season.

How, you know, having a by week in the, you know, weeks since that disappointing Michigan loss will certainly probably help them. But I, you know, also the Cincinnati went looking a little better because Cincinnati went and beat Kansas. Yeah. Yeah. You know, reasons to look up, I guess. I just, I'm going to, I'm going to call the bluff and I want to see the cards first now.

I'm not, I'm not predicting it to happen before I see it. I don't have a problem. I just, I was looking at these, these spreads and I had to go a little against the grain on some of it, on at least one or two of these, because you can't just pick the, the obvious thing. The obvious thing here is Michigan State to cover, because this seems like so many points. So I just, I just, I, It's going to happen for Nebraska eventually. I just don't, I don't know what the game's going to be.

But maybe this is the one. Yeah. So, and who knows? Maybe we are good luck guests on Matt Rul's podcast. Maybe. It was a good time. I'm excited for it to come out. Yeah.

It'll be out later this week. And we'll see. But yes, Nebraska, really to make this happen, got to run the ball better, got to protect Dylan Ryola better. and that's like I just imagine stop the run better stop the run better exactly like Emmett Johnson's averaging five and a half yards of carry but that's obviously against the the lesser teams on the schedule you know he averaged 3.4 against Michigan they gave him the ball 19 times like they didn't they didn't quit trying but they got to start they got to start getting more production

out of it. Yeah. So we will see what happens in Lincoln. Next up, Ari. Not a game I thought we'd be picking at the beginning of the season, but here we are. Texas Tech at Houston, Battle of Undefeateds in the Big 12, 4-0 versus 4-0. Texas Tech is an 11.5 point favorite on the road. And this is the type of game that,

Texas Tech, we got to win these two. So we saw him go to Utah, win the big one, win against the team that we thought was going to be a big 12th title contender. Houston was not that team. Houston's not one of the teams that we looked at as one of the many teams we thought would be capable of winning. But Connor Wegman has done a good job for Willie Fritz there in year two for Willie. What do we think is going to happen when Texas Tech brings this roster that is loaded with great athletes? to Houston. Yeah, it's kind of a tricky spot here. I don't know if I'm overthinking it, but don't does it feel kind of, you know, it does feel kind of tricky, and that's why I

pick this game to pick. Yeah, like the Big 12 will, we'll jump up and bite you when you at least expect it without question. And I think going on the road to a place that has a really good head coach that feels really good about itself is not an easy spot. I think that Texas Tech should be viewed as the favorite or at least one of the two or three favorites to win the big 12 but you know this isn't part of our big 12 minted coin here man like this is a you know this isn't a three and a half three and a half spread no and you're playing against the team that I think might be a little bit undervalued you know um this might be dangerous but I might step my foot in the Houston bear track here now I did stay stay up late Friday night and I know you

did too. We were watching TCU Arizona State on Friday night, but I split screened that with Houston, Oregon State, which Houston had an incredible comeback to beat Oregon State. And so there's a chance that Texas Tech just jumps on them and there's no comeback. The interesting question, who are you starting in this game if you're Joey McGuire? Are you going on? with Barron Morton, are you going with Will Hammond? I mean, is that a thing? Is that like a thing like in Lubbock right now? Like, is there is, are people like debating that?

I mean, we were debating it after the game, Ari, after they beat Utah. We were debating it after the game, but us debating it on our show and whether or not they're actually debating it internally and their building are very different. Like, I don't know. It doesn't seem like they are. Yeah. I mean, Will Hammond played so well. And here's my thought process. Andy more than anything.

I have a hard time believing that Texas Tech is just going to blow through the Big 12 without any scary games. And I think I'm going to pick this to be a scary game for them. I don't think they're going to lose. But I think I'm going to take the 11 and a half. I think if things are shaky and Baron Morton does start the game, Andy, and they're not moving the ball very well, I think you might be in a position to give the other one a shot because of how well.

I mean, Texas Tech was a completely different team against Utah once the quarterback changed, a completely different team, and I think that means something. It's not just... Yeah, I don't think this is an Ole Miss situation where I think they were moving the ball well with Austin Simmons, too. It felt like with Will Hammond, it was a different offense. The other players started playing better, and I think that great quarterbacks lift,

and it's not that Baron Morton isn't, but if you can lift other players with you, that is a very powerful thing that you might want to consider. So I'm actually going to listen to Joey McGuire's news conference this week just to see if there's any buzz about that. But I don't know that I believe that Tech is just going to win every Big 12 game the way they beat the Utes on the road. So give me Houston, in-state battle. I'll take the 11.5 and, you know, we'll see what happens.

But I still am very high on Tech's ability to win the conference. Give me Texas Tech taking Houston to Pound Town. I think Texas Tech's going to roll here. I think 11.5 points in a big 12 game on the road. Love it. Love that. Got to live dangerously, buddy. All right, let's stay in the state of tech.

What's that? Do you know what conference they play in? They play the Big 12. I'm aware. But hey, Texas Tech might be a different kind of big 12 team. They certainly are in terms of payroll. Let's stay in the state of Texas. Let's move about 90 minutes northwest.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a 14-point favorite at home. And this feels like a trap. line too, Ari, because we are looking at this like Mississippi State just took Tennessee to overtime. They were awesome. Texas A&M struggle, well, they didn't struggle to move the ball against Auburn's defense. They did struggle to score against Auburn's defense. And it seems like this should be obvious. Oh, you're going to give me 14 points. I should take Mississippi State. I'm not sure that's the play, though. Yeah. Just in case you haven't noticed,

and I'm sure that you have, if you've listened to the show or read any of my work for the past week but like I am fully bought in on Texas A&M and like if there's ever a sign that A&M is back it's when my wife comes home from a girl's night walks into the room I don't know why she did that but she happened to do it right as we were talking about the Aggies and that's an ag they are back that said 14 it's a lot of points it's so many points like A&M might have one of the better offenses in college football. And they move the ball pretty effectively against who I believe is maybe one of the tougher defenses in the SEC, if not also in college football.

Dude, is A&M just going to start rolling people? Because I do believe they're legitimately a top 10 team this year. I do. I think that they are a very good team. But the thing is, like Tennessee's good, too. And Mississippi State had them completely on the ropes. The game went to overtime. I know, I know, I know.

And it's maybe, maybe we are starting to figure out that Mississippi State isn't just a dormant. And by the way, I don't know if the SEC is ready for Mississippi State to be a tough out because, like, that's just not fair. Well, and the thing is, look, the Mississippi State schedule, and we talk about how hard the schedule is, it also means that Mississippi State could spoil someone's season this year. Yeah, or, yeah, or be in a position where they, yeah, yeah, what you said, spoil them. Sorry, my phone rang in the middle of it. Lost my train of thought, my bad. Yeah, Mississippi State's much better.

And you're talking about a guy who picked Southern Miss to win out right in week one. You want to talk about being wrong about a team? Like, Jeff Leby's done a really good job with him this year. Yeah, he's done an incredible job. And, you know, I think the seeds were planted last year when they were still losing, and he still had that team together. And he went out and massively upgraded the roster this offseason. This is a good team.

However, however. I don't know how many games in a row they can do it because I think there is a cumulative effect with stuff like this. So having to go on the road to college station after that emotional home game, overtime game against Tennessee. Give me the Aggies to cover here. I'm going to take the points. Maybe I'm just going to be the obvious person. You're going to take the point. You're going to be to take the points.

I don't blame you. I really don't. Yeah, two touchdowns. you know, maybe A&M will win 38 to 10. I have no idea. But I do think that Mississippi State's a much better team than, you know, we've given them credit for I have. A&M, I think, is going to win.

I'm sure they'll win comfortably. But, you know, maybe the back door will be left open and, you know, 14 points just a lot. I'm going to take the points. All righty. Let's go to Tallahassee. A little tighter spread here. Miami goes to Florida State for the biggest Miami, Florida State game in a long time. Now, it is not as big as it would have been had Florida State not lost in double overtime at Virginia last Friday night.

But it is still a huge game, the line now down to four and a half. Miami favored on the road against Florida State. And Ari, the question is, did Florida State get exposed by Virginia? Is Virginia just good? Are they going to be a tough team to have to play, especially? if it's a Friday night on the road. What are we dealing with with Florida State? Because I think we know what we have in Miami.

I think we know what Miami is. So what are we dealing with with Flores State? First of all, I have to like acknowledge something here. When we were doing our preview video of this on Sunday, I told you the line was 22 and a half. That was not my fault. It was wrong. But I was looking at a website I always look at

and that's what they all had the line is. And I think it might have been a mistake. it might have been last year's line because 22 and a half like I was just like I'm taking the points and if I lose that you said what made me guess it and I was like three and a half yeah and I made you feel like an idiot so let me let me just apologize to you Andy and just say hey you were you were more on the ball there um let me tell you that I guess the line but let me tell you that right now close uh Andy I have routinely picked against Miami this year not because I don't believe in Miami, but because I thought some of the teams that they were playing in the spots,

they were playing them in, like, the value for taking the points was good, and I've been wrong every turn. I am 100% bought into the notion that Miami might be one of the three best teams in the sport, and I'm done picking against them. I don't think it even matters what Florida State is. I think if Florida State is the better version of itself, if Florida State is the team that beat the crap out of Alabama, at home, it's going to be a tough environment, obviously. It's a rivalry game. If Florida State's the team that beat the crap out of Alabama, it still might not matter. Miami might still be better than that team. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, I can get behind that. There is a

thought process of like, did Florida State get exposed last week? Are they not very good? What did we learn about the Virginia thing? And it's like, I'm going to throw that out. And I'm going to pretend like we didn't learn anything that Florida State is still a pretty good to above average to really good team. I think it's possible Miami may be a great team this year, and I'm tired of losing, picking against them. So I am going to lovingly lay the points here. And I'm just going to, you know, see what happens.

You know, like when I thought the spread was 22 and a half, like in my head, I was like, that's a lot of points. I could see. You were going to take them to cover that too, weren't you? Yeah, like, I'm just like I'm done. I've been scarred. And maybe this is like the death blow for Miami because like once I get on board, that's when I lose.

But, you know, four and a half is going to be a sharp number. I'm looking at the power ratings. They all have it four and a half. I'm just going to go with the team that I think is better. I think Miami's better on the lines. I think that I would take Carson Beck over Tommy Costellanos. I think that the skill position players, even though I'm obsessed with Deuce Robinson, I would probably take Miami's skill.

Miami has the best defensive. The sum of Miami's parts is just better than Florida State. So I'm done playing this spot game. And this is the ultimate spot game. They're going on the road to a very hostile environment and a rivalry game. Like this is the opinion of spot. I'm not playing five more. I'm playing the team.

The way Ford State wins this game is they make Carson Beck make mistakes. They capitalize on some turnovers like that. That's how they win. I don't see a way they win it straight up, which is interesting because they certainly beat Alabama straight up earlier this season. but I think I'm with you, and unlike you, I have been picking Miami this whole time because I do love the way they're constructed on the line of scrimmage. And I just feel like- The difference between our records is literally just Miami.

It is. You're right. Yep. Because, I mean, I started out taking Miami Money Line against Notre Dame. And then I took Miami to cover against Florida. And I took Miami to cover against USF. So, or not in that. order. But yeah, I just, I love the way that Miami is built on the line of scrimmage.

I think Ruben Bain might be the best player in college football this year so far. I know there's a lot of quarterbacks that are probably going to be above him in the Heisen conversation, but Ruben Bain has been absolutely disruptive. And the Ruben Bain, a key messador combo. Like, at the end of the Florida game, there's a play where Florida has still got kind of a chance. I think it was 19. to seven at that point. And I was like, hi, Miami hadn't gotten home for a sack in a minute. It was a third down.

And that second, Ruben Bain and Akeem Messidor combined on a sack. Like the replay from behind the quarterback, it's just like, oh my God, how do these people get blocked ever? I'm saying that I am relieved that the spread isn't 22 and a half and that we are going to maybe get a vintage game. Like I want that game to be awesome. I want it to feel like it did when we were. kids. I think it will. I think it's still will. I think they're going to hit really hard.

And the thing is like even Miami, Florida, that game was very much in doubt in the late third, early fourth quarter. You know, it's, I think Florida State is going to put up a good fight here. I don't think they're going to lay down for Miami. I just, I think Miami just eventually overwhelms you because you have to block that defensive line and you have to have to have that offensive line leaning on you over and over and over again. And I think that's where most teams are going to fail against Miami is the cumulative effect of all those blows that you're taking. By the fourth quarter, you just can't hold up.

And you saw that with Florida. Like Florida's defense was playing well, but in the fourth quarter, Miami's offensive line is just mashing them down the field. And that's what I think they're going to be able to do to Florida State. and then it's interesting the way their schedule breaks out because they had the open date before this game. They have another open date after this game, and then it's just the stretch run and the ACC for them.

I think they get through this, and they're just going to, if they beat Florida State here, they're going to sail through the rest of the ACC. Yeah, yeah. It's the U, man. It is indeed all about the U. I will take Miami to cover again, because I'm beating Ari in the picks because of the hurricane.

So I will hopefully, I will continue to pay off. Yes, I am 25, 23, and 1. Ari is 22, 26, and 1. And we'll see if the canes come through for both of us instead of just me. But we'll be at the game. I want Florida State to put up a fight. I want to see a good competitive game, but I still think Miami's got it.

And Ari, we're in a fun week of shows coming up. Memphis coach, Ryan Silverfield, joins us on Tuesday's show. Cannot wait to talk college football all week with you. It doesn't have to be the monster games every week. Sometimes it's the ones that have the great storylines. And there's a bunch with great storylines this week. We will delve into them all week. We'll talk to you tomorrow.