Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Week 7 PICKS | Oklahoma-Texas, Indiana-Oregon, Georgia-Auburn, Michigan-USC, & MORE

Episode Date: October 6, 2025

After a wild week 6 in college football, it's time to turn our focus to week 7 on the schedule. It's a Monday picks show for Andy & Ari, and the fellas pick the BIGGEST games of the week. Games include: (0:00) On Today’s Episode(0:28) BetMGM(2:06) Intro: Week 7 Picks(11:38) #8 Alabama at #14 Missouri (+3.5)(21:19) Academy Sports + Outdoors(22:17) #1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois (+16.5)(31:08) #7 Indiana at #3 Oregon (-8.5)(38:33) Gametime(40:15) #6 Oklahoma vs Texas (-2.5)(52:23) NC State at #16 Notre Dame (-22.5)(54:41) Florida at #5 Texas A&M (-7.5)(1:02:45) #10 Georgia at Auburn (+3.5)(1:14:41) #15 Michigan at USC (-2.5)(1:24:59) South Carolina at #11 LSU (-9.5)(1:35:15) Conclusion A jam packed picks show you won't want to miss here! Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Our show is sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoors! https://www.academy.com/c/backpack Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/cWDlK1Xlg4Y Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's edition of Andy and Ari on 3, we are picking some games. Week 7 has some very, very juicy matchups. That's right. We are picking Alabama, Missouri. We are picking Indiana, Oregon. We are picking Oklahoma, Texas. We are picking Michigan, USC. Oh, man.

This is going to be an incredible, incredible week. Starts today with the picks on Andy and Orion 3, presented by BEDMGM. We've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We will be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join BetMGM, you'll get access to a variety of parley selection features like same game parley's, live betting options and more. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as in college football, CFB, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how that works. Download the BedmGM app.

and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See betmgm.com for terms. 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers are not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in the U.S. 8778 Hope N. Y or text Hope N. Y. 4673369 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. Call 1-800-3-2-0-0-0-0-0 in Massachusetts. Call 1-800-off in Iowa or 1-800-9-1-0-23 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. And it is time to make some picks and Ari. Last week we're like, I don't know about some of these matchups.

And of course, college football delivered like it always does. This week, I sent you. you a screenshot earlier today of just the night games, just the games that you and I will be watching at your house after we cover Oklahoma, Texas, and it's banger after bangor after bangor. Plus, in the early window, you've got Alabama, Missouri, and also in that afternoon window where we'll be at the Cotton Bowl, Indiana will be playing at Oregon. Ari, this week looks amazing. Yes, it does. And, you know, the one thing I have to say is, You know, as we get through to mid-October, the fact that the playoff isn't for teams

and hasn't alienated half of the sport is probably a good thing. Oh, funny how that works. It's probably a good thing. I actually got an email from somebody who disagreed with that, and I had sent him an email response like a year ago saying, I'll be proven right over time. And they email me this week saying, it's so stupid that Penn State's still in it after losing to UCLA.

I'm like, okay, fine. You think alienating one of the largest fan bases in the country for, you know, the last two months of the season is cool. I mean, it seems like a stupid business proposition, but that's probably why you aren't a network executive. Well, the thing about the Penn State situation is the only way they're not alienated is if they win the rest of their games. And if they win the rest of their games, they won't, you won't want to alienate them.

Right. Right. Exactly. So it's almost as if they've heightened the drama across the entirety of the season instead of just these one, you know, these couple little select spots. Yeah, I just have a thought, though. And, you know, as we keep going into the season, Andy, like, because you know at the beginning, everyone who listens to the show knows that I was anti-12. But I'm trying to figure out how it would even be functionally possible to pick four out of the teams that we have this year. And that's the other thing. The changes in the sport have made this, which is better.

Now, I will say some of these stupid ideas that keep coming about 20, 24, 28, no. Do not go bigger than 16. Do not add another round. Like, the things that are adding drama now, if you go too big, you take that away. So you're trying to maximize the drama. Before we get into the picks, I want to tell you that there are three teams to me that stand out. from everybody else. Yep.

You probably could guess the three. I can guess two of them. I'm trying, oh, okay, I think I, yeah, okay. So the three you're going to say are Miami, Ohio State, and Oregon in some order. In some order. Like, those are the top three. And then I was thinking about it in the frame of the college football playoff in the four team era. It's like, good luck with number four, everyone.

Like, you know, like that's the thing. And what if Indiana goes to Eugene and beats Oregon? Then all of a sudden, Indiana is your third team, but is Oregon your fourth? Like, you don't know. I don't know who the fourth would be. I think the first three would be easy. And then the difference between Ole Miss, A&M, Oklahoma, Indiana, Alabama, Texas, Tech, Georgia, Tennessee's in there somewhere.

Like, they're all, you know, and I know you would go by resume, but, you know, and I know we don't know. Georgia Tech will find out about Missouri when they play Alabama. Are we throwing Michigan to the side of the road because they lost at Oklahoma? Like all of these things. There's a lot. There's a lot of drama to play out and a lot of intrigue. And there's a lot of intrigue this week, especially because I think we've got a few back against the wall situations. And one of those is a game we'll be at.

We're going to Oklahoma, Texas. Texas is back is against the wall. I think they got to win this one or their playoff hopes are probably dead. South Carolina's back will be against the wall in Baton Rouge. they've got two losses, two SEC losses, no less. Oh, Jude's backs against the wall too, isn't it? No, because they've only got one loss. I guess like from just from a perspective standpoint.

That's more of a perspective thing. That's a, the fan base will, I think the fan base already turned on Brian Kelly. I think they would permanently turn on Brian Kelly if they lose this game, even though they still would be in it. Yeah. As long as they, this is, but that's sort of like the Florida thing. Billy Napier didn't save. his job by beating Texas.

Like he has to go on a miracle run to save his job. This is like, I know the guys that solid verbal, like give a nickname to the weekend every weekend. And they always come up with some clever, cute name because they're really funny. I don't want to steal that bit. But like this is,

if you put the graphic back up for me here, a quick river, a find out weekend. We're going to find out whether Indiana anything different than, you know, last year. And last year was a very good team

that already advanced. I got a better one. Show me Saturday. Show me Saturday is a good one. Yeah. Because it starts in the show me state with Alabama, Missouri. I love it. Yeah, Ty and Dan are really good at coming up with funny ones.

But if you go down the list here, Andy, Indiana and then Oregon, too, because we don't know how good Penn State is or how fractured they are, but whoever wins that game is going to have a nice little notch on their belt, we find out of Missou. Is Missou a team that is being underappreciated at 14 or should it be ranked higher. And then, of course, we have Alabama who has two quality wins in a row. Can they sustain it? That's something that we want to find out about Bama. Illinois, are they just a dead team after losing 63 to 10, or could they give Ohio State a game in the wind tunnel?

Texas, are they doomed or have they just had a rough month? Oklahoma. Oklahoma Sons Mateer. What does that look like? In Oklahoma, Sons, Meteer, or with Meteer, is Oklahoma a legitimate playoff team or they just off to a good start? A&M. Are they for real here? Florida. Can Billy make a miracle run? Yes.

All of the above. The fifth floor. USC, can they compete against the team that hits hard and is good in the trenches? Michigan. Was Oklahoma a one-off bad scenario or is Bryce Underwood ready to take this to a playoff situation? LSU. Are you cooked?

I don't know. Carolina, are you cooked? Yeah, that's the are you cooked game. Georgia, can you go on the road and beat a team you should beat Auburn? Are you going to go 0 and 3 in the SEC and then some serious conversations start happening? All of this, all this is going to be an incredible, incredible week. So let's look at our records. I was 5 and 3 last week.

You were, we don't need to talk about what you were. But my overall record is now 30, 26, and 1. Your overall record is 23, 33, and 1. I got to say, I'm having a really rough year, dude. I'm having a really rough year. There's no getting around it. Yeah. I'm having a hard time right now.

Maybe you should follow me instead of fading me. That would not be a good show, Andy. We know, but it's funny because we don't plan this. And like, we would have both gotten Alabama vandy had Jam Miller or not, you know, added the exclamation point. Well, that's the thing about gambling. You know, you would have. I mean, I would have won a lot of games, you know, last week if one, one thing didn't happen. I mean, I lost, I think, two or three of them by a half a point, but that's, that's the sport.

That's the gamble. That's what the records are for. So, no excuses, lost a lot of games this week. And my hope is that I can get back because I don't want to lose to you. That's my, you know, it would be so embarrassing if you like, it would be like me losing to you at trivia. We got to have it Murphy back on so I can catch up, by the way. or like in a foot race in a foot race between the two of us

is not something anybody wants to watch by the way if I sprinted I read a stat Andy that like most people over the age of 18 will never sprint again for the rest of their lives and I was trying to think about it when's the last time I ran full speed I could not tell you

and I feel like if I were even a stretch I could tell you exactly when it was it was Tuesday for me because I did a hit workout on the Pelton treadmill where you are where you're sprint where you can't run faster even if you wanted to like you are full blown like running a 40 yard dash speed yeah um i would tear my achilles tendon if i did that right that's how like you tear hamstring way before your achilles yeah but what i'm saying is if i just like went outside

right now and i stretched for five minutes put on shoes and tried to sprint as fast as i can there's a zero percent chance i wouldn't hurt myself right correct or you could have said a hundred percent chance that you'd hurt yourself but there's that redundancy again no 95 percent chance that I you said a zero percent chance that I wouldn't hurt myself or you could have said a hundred percent chance that I would hurt myself. One is a very simple construction. One is a very tricky right now. Grab a medello and drink everybody. Sorry. Had to do it. All right. All right. Let us go to Columbia, Missouri. And I have a question for you. Is this a trap line or a trap game? Missouri is a three and a half point favorite. I'm sorry.

Missouri is a three and a half point underdog. I apologize. Alabama, three and a half point favorite on the road. This line, Ari, very respectful of Missouri, but I also think very respectful of the situation. This is the third game of a four-game gauntlet for Alabama that is at Georgia, Vanderbilt, at Missouri, Tennessee. If they get through this four-and-o, they are a national title contender. No question. But getting through this 4-0 is going to be incredibly difficult.

And I think that's what this line is. It is respecting the situation as much as it is respecting Missouri because Alabama's been through two tough physical games. They now have to go on the road to play a really good team that is on its home field and it is a sleepy 11 a.m. local kickoff. Like everything here tilts toward Missouri, but Alabama is playing lights out, especially in the last. half of the bandy yeah yeah and the hardest thing about this show andy is that we are picking always the most interesting exciting games and in those games it feels to me like the lines of the sharpest and like a lot of times where you're in spots that you can avoid because it's such a it's like when we're picking this game today like you're going to have to decide are you

going to pick teams or you're going to pick the spot um and that's a really hard thing to do but i am happy to see that the line has appropriately you know registered that because you would think that Alabama with the way that they're playing right now is probably a touchdown better. They're on the road and it's in a terrible spot, three and a half, bada bing, bada boom, there you go. I don't know what you're feeling right now because the way Alabama is playing, I want to take Bama. The way that Missouri is playing and the fact that this is a sleepy 11am kickoff game in Columbia, Missouri with Alabama coming off two emotional wins, makes me want to take Missou, and I don't know which side is pulling me harder. Did you have a hard time with this one?

Yes, I had a very hard time with this one. It's not quite the same as 2010 Alabama when they were in their last game before their open date, and I think they had played like six consecutive opponents that were coming off of open dates, and they went to South Carolina. And you just knew, like you're blinking trap right there. You knew South Carolina was winning that game. I this is not that because I'm not sure we exactly know what Missouri is yet we've seen them against Kansas and against South Carolina both impressive wins but Alabama is much better than

another one of those teams Alabama is also playing at an incredibly high level even for this level of talent on this team so I don't know I don't know what to do here this is a very tough one because like what if we haven't seen missouri's best game yet either yeah Missouri has been good so far but it may be that they haven't turned it on yet either so this is a really tricky one know if you've picked up on this yet but you know a few weeks ago i had a take on the show about how the SEC is kind of morphing into the big 12 and like this is the ultimate big 12 game where you have the conference favorite against a really good team spreads three and a half games on the road like that like that we this is a big 12 game in terms of picking it um you know like back in

the day when texas was in the big 12 when they were laying three and a half on the road at kansas state doesn't this feel the same exact way like it looks the same thing to me yeah the well coached team in the place where it's it's sneakily very hard to play like all of that stuff feels like it's it's happening right now that's that i'm probably going to go with alabama I know all the circumstances and I have a lot of respect for what Eli Drinkwitz is doing at Missou

I think Alabama is probably a more talented deeper football team and I don't know if I'm 100% it makes me not want a podcast anymore I'm going to get inside your head enough that you're either going to get the yips or you're going to get fixed one of the two that's not going to fix me it's a it's a something that you do without realizing it um now i don't even remember what i was saying what was i saying

something about alabama being a football team or missouri being a football team one of them's a football team uh you can go ahead from here i don't remember what i was saying you're just going to quit the show you just i'll take the take the rest of the hour no here's where here's where what we need to find out Amad Hardy, can he do this against a top-level SEC defense? Does he keep averaging six yards of carry? Or when he plays a team like Alabama, does that drop to 2.5 yards of carry? That's what you've got to see.

Bo Perbula, what does he look like in these situations? Ty Simpson, we've already seen. We know what he is. We know what Ty Simpson is when the chips are down, when it's third down, fourth down, he's delivering pretty much every time. Have we gotten to a point where we don't question Ty Simpson any more? more like is he proven to you i think the last two weeks have been have been pretty proof positive that this is a guy who can play really well in tough situations now it doesn't mean he's going to

always be perfect but he certainly earned my trust between the georgia game and the vandy game i got to say i think we really dropped the ball in the off season in trying to pitch to the audience how much of a value play taking Alabama's quarterback was when those odds were like 25 or 30 to 1 for the Heisman we tried we had him on the we I had him in the column I think he was the lead item of the column that I wrote I think when we did that show he was the first guy we talked about he was a he was selected in the Kings of the North one that we did

by somebody I can't remember but now it's just like I look back at it and it's always like hindsight's 2020 but it's like yeah you probably should have put a few bucks on the Alabama I'm a quarterback to win the Heisman at like 35 to 1 or whatever it was. Because he's the favorite now. Yeah, I think I don't know where you are with Bo Probula. I think he's a very good player. I want to see how he plays in this environment against that defense before I'm

I need to see this. Like Kansas game's fine. South Carolina game's fine. I need to see this. And Missouri's got a few of these coming up. You know, Missouri's got to play Alabama. Missouri's got to play Texas A&M, which gave them fits last year, knew the end of the season they've got Oklahoma.

Missouri is going to have a lot of these coming up. And this will tell us how they're going to compete in that type of scenario. So I don't know what to expect from him. That part I'm excited to see. And listen, this is Alabama defense's opportunity to shut somebody down, to shut down a good quarterback and a good back and say, hey, look, we had that one loss at the beginning of season, but, you know, we're done with that.

We're done with that. We've moved on. And so we'll find out. But I am also going to take Alabama here. Look, three and a half is all you got to cover? I'll take it. I feel good about that. I feel good about the way they're playing.

I understand that this is a trap situation. But they also understand it's a trap situation. And I also think, Ari, when they turn on the film and watch Missouri play, they'll respect them. So it's not like they're going to take them lightly. Yeah. It's just a matter of where they're about. bodies are and if they can get that that's the hard part that's the one thing I worry about here and and this will be a recurring theme I'm a little spoiler alert as we go through the picks today

I feel like I'm taking a lot of road favorites and that always scares me yeah so that's harder to do that in the NFL I think than then college but it's really hard in the SEC this year because of the cumulative effect and we talked about that Missouri's going to have we had a video on Sunday we were talking about this Missouri will have a point in the season where it is facing a similar situation it's not today though Alabama is facing that situation this particular week and so Alabama has to overcome like their coach has had a susceptibility uh especially at his time at Alabama to not putting his best effort out onto the field and like I don't know but we have to figure out if that's a this year if that's an every year thing or if that's a last year

thing and we we don't know that yet it's a this year thing already too so like it's already happened once. And I know season opener we got no film on a new coordinator, new quarterback, that's totally different. You got the whole, you got film on these guys, you know they're good. I don't know. A team coming off two and ten.

It looked like Alabama like during that game watching it, you know, maybe it's different in hindsight, but like when I was watching it was like, do these people like will care? I know, but they haven't played like that since. And so until I see them do it again, I'm going to assume that's a one-off.

You have to have in the back of your mind if that's a possibility until they go an extended amount of time without doing it. So, like, that's the thing. If they can do it again, this game, it's three games, three difficult games in a row that they'll have come to play. At that point, we let that go. We just let it go. So I'll take Alabama.

You're going to take Alabama to cover as well. Let's see how it goes. Speaking of SEC games, huddle up football fans, tailgate season is here, and nobody gets SEC fans ready for game day like Academy Sports and Outdoors. Swing by your local academy store, shop online at Academy.com to find grills, jerseys, and more. Fun can't lose, and neither can you with Tailgate Gear from Academy. Academy Sports and Outdoors is official sporting goods and outdoor retailer of the SEC. And if you want to buy me a late birthday gift and pick me up a cooler there, you know how, Ari, I have a cooler problem.

I love coolers. I always want the newest cooler technology. And Academy has all of them. I actually have a cool. problem that you need to help me with when you come this weekend. Thank you for bringing that up. So we're going to go to Academy and fix it, right? Yeah. Or you're going to look at the cooler that I do have and say, hey, this thing's a piece of crap. Let's go to Academy and get a better one. Okay. Awesome. Well, either way, we get a trip to Academy, which is all I care

about. Academy Sports and Outdoors, Fun can't lose. Ari. It looks like Ohio State can't lose. but they go to Champaign this week and this is a talented Illinois team that had one extremely bad game the question is what do they look like when the final boss level

version of Indiana shows up because that's what Ohio State is it's Indiana on steroids not accusing anyone of taking steroids it's just a figure of speech Ohio State gave up 66 yards to Minnesota on the first drive of the game and Minnesota finished with 162 yards for the rest of the whole game. Ohio State has not allowed,

do you know how many points Ohio State's defense has given up all season? Okay, I'm just doing the math on it. Three, seven, seven, is it twenty? It's 25 all season. Oh, man. Buddy, I don't know, man. I do not know. Like, I know Illinois is good.

And traditionally speaking, Ohio State has never played. There's something about Champaign, Illinois, that has given Ohio State problems traditionally over the year. The sun shone the day of the USC game. I think that's the one we're looking at a picture of right now. That picture is an AI picture. That didn't happen. No, the sun definitely shown in Champaign that USC game day, and they ended up winning.

But this is a, I just, like what they did the USC at the end of the game, they're not doing to Ohio State. Like, you're just not mashing your way down in the field against Ohio State. That's not happening. Yeah, 16 and a half is a lot of points in Ohio State. I mean, it is to a team that I think is functional. But this functional team also got beat by 53. I know, I know, I know. Another good, we think maybe playoff caliber team.

I'm trying to come up with a reason to pick Illinois, and I don't think that you could give me one. I can't. I can't. I know we're supposed to sell the drama here, but I really can't. How many points would you need to receive to think about taking Illinois? 28. 28.

Because I think Ohio State is going to remain somewhat conservative at first, which is what we've seen from them in most of their games, where they don't really start pressing the Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate buttons until they're sure that their defense has locked everything down. But given what we've seen from Illinois, trying to cover Indiana's receivers, I don't think that's going to matter how conservative they are. Like, I think they're going to just be scoring from the beginning. Yeah. So here's where we're at with Ohio State in the unfiltered takes column that I do every Monday. I wrote at the beginning in an Ohio State section that Ohio State meddled around with Minnesota in the first quarter before winning 42 to 3. They were losing 3 nothing until they scored really late. I think it was the final play of the first quarter to go up 7.3 and then still won 42 to 3. Ohio State fans are in my mentions right now mad at me for saying they meddled.

Like that is how good things are going. like there's not much to get upset about. I don't know what the nitpick is. I think that Julian Sane is a very, very good young quarterback, and I think that as time progresses, he's going to turn into a star. And I think they're giving him the perfect runway here

because they have this defense is so good that they don't have to ask him to do anything, and they kind of get him settled into a game, and they're like, okay, let's do a little more. Like as the game moves on, like, you get into the second and third quarters, and they're like, okay, let's ask him to do a little more. Let's see what he can do.

let's test this out. You know what this team is? What's that? This team is the boa constrictor team that Georgia was a few years ago. Correct. Where they don't have to, they don't need to jump on you and be up 24 nothing in the first quarter. But as the game goes on,

they get more loose offensively. Their defense is stopping you at a frustrating. I mean, PJ flexed that after the game that it was the best defense he's seen in the last 13 years. And that's crazy to say, considering how much they lost talent-wise from a year ago. Oh, speaking of which, I threw Arvel Reese on my on three Heisman. Did you come across the clip of like some of the plays he made against Minnesota? And then you're like, this is it.

Because like, as good as Caleb Downs in is what Arvel Reese does in their defense, maybe even more important, which I cannot believe I'm even saying. There was one. Based on how good Caleb Downs is and how important he is. where Arvel Reist lined up before the play outside the left tackle and somehow morphed his way into the middle of the line of scrimmage and bolted through and got in for a sack. And like, you know, I'm seeing talent evaluators like NFL scouts

and draft analysts saying he's the best linebacker in college football. If you had the best linebacker in college football to what they already have on defense, the best safety in college football, the best wide receiver in college football, maybe the second best wide receiver in college football. Like, it's insane. It's insane what they've got. So, like, in the spirit of not overreacting to one result, it's hard. I think Illinois is better than what we saw against Indiana.

I don't know what happened that night. Maybe one day they're, you know, we'll figure it out. Maybe that's who they are to a certain extent when they play elite level teams. I don't think that's what Illinois is. But even if it is 50% of that, I don't know how they keep it within 16.5 points. I just can't. And maybe we'll be watching the game and we'll find out, oh, that's how. Maybe this is Ohio State's turnover game.

Maybe this is Ohio State's, you know, sleepwalking game. I don't know. But you're going on the road, and this is one of their most interesting, I mean, whatever, put up their schedule, if you don't mind, I don't know how long that'll take. But Ohio State's playing Illinois and then they play Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, and Michigan. And so you could make the case that this is one of only three semi-interesting games left on their regular season schedule. And they're, so maybe they can get up for this because there hasn't really been a reason to, they've been so boring. There's nothing to watch.

They're just mashing people, dude. Like, you know, in a world where the rest of their schedule, you feel like they can mash everybody else. Now, maybe they won't. Maybe they'll just coast through a game or two, but I don't, I don't see that. Like, I kind of think. last year's Michigan loss might still be propelling this year's team because like all these guys played

on last year's team. It's not like this is a massive transfer portal team. Like they were all there. They understand what happens if you don't show up. So I think you're all going to show up pretty much every time. So I will take Ohio State to cover the 16 and a half here. What say

you are? I'm going to take Ohio State. Yeah. And you know, it's something I see some of the power ratings have them at 14 point favorites. I'm ignoring those. I mean, 14, 16 and a half. It's close enough. Like, yeah, I don't know. Obviously, the power ratings aren't helping me right now. So I'm just going to ignore it and go with what I've seen.

And Ohio State looks, you know, we were at the Miami game the other night and Miami looks really, really good. And then I start thinking about everything that Ohio State has. And it's just like, I don't know who's in the same hemisphere right now. still might not be might maybe maybe we're wrong about the super team being dead maybe they still are one so we will find out though this is this is the type of game where if they if they just come in in curb stomp illinois i don't know what happens the rest of the season regular season wise there are teams that they can probably play with them and it'll be interesting in two weeks if they're on their schedule our viewpoint of the penn state game changes because true well i i kind

want to see penn state like penn state plays northwestern northwestern beat ucla like does penn state just snap back into into form or or is this going to be a james franklin every week like posts like the team's name and then goes and then repeats it over and over again let's go one and o this week i would have done that this week i would have just stayed off twitter yeah yeah the northwestern northwestern northwester yeah ari what's stay in the big 10. Indiana heads to Oregon. Oregon is an eight and a half point favorite in this game. This is a strange one to me because like Indiana, we have in our minds one thing about Indiana. And it's that it's last year's team similar to last year's team. And when they went to

Ohio State, they got shelled. But I think this might be better than last year's team. Also, this is not going to Ohio State. This is going to Oregon. also a very difficult place to play also a team loaded with NFL talent but if Indiana is truly better they should put up a fight in this game if not win it Oregon is a very very good team taught myself um they have a lot of good players enough so that running back, Mackay Hughes, who I thought was going to be one of the big 10 leading rushers is already in the portal. They've done a really good job of recruiting at a high school, and the players they bring

in through the transfer portal are hitting. They are a monster, and Dan Lanning is the most sought after and most coveted young head coach in college football. I think Indiana is really, really good this year, Andy. And I think this is a lot, a lot of points. now producer river producer river asking him like how he's he redshirted right no port yeah he's redshirting because he's leaving yeah yeah yeah the red shirt situation i thought was a implication that he's going to leave and yeah they have they have a freshman deer hill junior who's averaging 10.4 yards

of carry right now yeah and like added to the list of good players on oregon as and like my gut feeling as a human who watches college football is Indiana is on the road it reminds me a lot of having to go on the road to Ohio State last year. It's very easy to, you know, pick the same thing that already happened to happen again and for them to get their doors blown off at Oregon. You know, I'm not so fast. I think that Indiana is better than they were last year. And you know what?

I don't know that we've even acknowledged on this show. If you Google mock draft, Fernando Mendoza is the first quarterback off the board in every mock draft online right now. And I don't know if that matters to you. I don't know if that matters to you. The pro people love him. The pro people love him. Eight and a half.

I think I'm going to take eight and a half, Andy. I think I'm going to take it. This is why we don't do this before the show. And, you know, again, I'm sorry because I know you'd like to see us argue. And if you look at our records, obviously, Ari and I disagree a few times on picks. But yeah, I'm with you. I think it's too many points. I think Oregon's going to win the game.

But I think Indiana is going to win the game. but I think Indiana is going to make it really interesting. Let me have to talk about my record. I'll slap you. You see how that works for you. Go ahead and try that. I saw Andy's, oh, yeah, Andy was behind me in traffic because we drove separately to the Miami game,

and the person in front of me was going very slowly, and I'm not sure Andy realized that I was directly in front of him, and he started honking like a psychopath. No, I knew it wasn't your fault. I knew it was some idiot sitting at a green light. Not. Did you know I was in the car in front of you? Yeah. Oh. And then I turned around. I'm like, who's this guy honking? And I was like, oh, that's Andy. And then his lifted F150. I'm like, yeah, no one's going to mess with this guy. So I probably won't slack. It's Florida. Someone will mess with anybody in Florida. Yeah. Yeah. I would not be honking in the Florida panhandle. Wait, is Tallahassee's not in the panhand. Big Bend area. Yeah. I'm learning my geography. yeah and we might look stupid here Andy like Oregon might just come out and win you know 49 to 20 or something and you know due to Indiana what Indiana did to Illinois that's the

sport but I think that these teams might be closer because of respect out of Indiana and like eventually I think a lot of people who roll their eyes at Indiana are going to be proven wrong and you know what if Indiana gets their doors blown off then maybe those people were right I'm going to give Indiana the benefit of it out and I'm going to take the eight and half and, you know, hope and anticipate a pretty competitive game on Saturday night. So you want to slow down Oregon's offense. You stop the run game. You limit the run game. Fernando Mendoza's been good every game, but they didn't, they weren't very productive against Iowa, and it's because they couldn't run the ball. So against Iowa, they averaged 2.7 yards

of carry. If Oregon can hold Indiana below four yards of carry, Oregon is going to win this game, period. But if it's above four yards of carry or if Indiana is like they have been most of the season where it's been like six yards of carry, then Indiana is going to be in it and possibly winning it. That's really going to be the key there. And, you know, Oregon has the bodies on the defensive line to make that happen. But Indiana is a very talented team and probably more talented than we'll, we still don't give them enough credit for how good they are up front. No. No, no, no. The offense has two high-level first-round potential picks in Elijah Surratt and Fernando Mendoza, it seems. Right. But Carter Smith is an NFL player. Their left tackle. Pat Coogan, their center, who started at Center for Notre Dame last year, is an NFL player.

Or quarter to fuck you football. That's exactly right. That's exactly right. They've got, dude, up front that have been through this that are not going to be faced by playing against top level talent like Oregon has. I'm so excited for this because this is Indiana's chance. It really is Indiana's chance for us to take them seriously. And by us, I mean everybody. I mean, the college football watching public because it's still, oh, Indiana is a cute little story, but they never beat anybody. Okay, go to Eugene, win, and no one says that anymore. that that narrative is over at that point i think all indiana has to do is keep it within seven like i am i am taking the eight and a half because i am anticipating that indiana knows

what it has to do it does not have to win this game it needs to go play a respectable game i'm not saying they're not going to try to win or they don't want to win or they're not starving to win but if they make this a four-quarter game and lose um and then people will be fine with that You'll be fine with that because they'll say, okay, put that in a neutral site in the playoff or put that in a neutral site in Indianapolis. You might have something. And you may win that game. You're right.

You're right. They don't have to win, though that would certainly help. But yes, if it's a close game, I think a lot of the narrative dissipates as well, even if they lose. And I think eight and a half is too many points. Like I said, I still think Oregon's going to win. But I cannot wait to see this game because it is such an opportunity. for Indiana. So we'll find out. And our conversation Saturday night could be very different about Indiana. We'll find out on Saturday. All right, Ari. Before we head to the state fair of Texas and

the Cotton Bowl, I want to tell you how you can head to the State Fair of Texas and the Cotton Bowl to watch Texas and Oklahoma play. Download the game time app, redeem the code staples, get $20 off your first purchase terms apply, of course. So when you get that game time map, you type in Texas football, you click on it. It'll say Red River of a rivalry, Texas versus Oklahoma. So you can click and find exactly where in the Cotton Bowl you'd be sitting. We're talking about in the $300-ish-dollar range for really good seats. You can get in in the $200-ish-dollar range.

This is still a pretty hot ticket. The Oklahoma fans are very excited. The Texas fans haven't quite given up, though. We will talk about where their heads are at right now. Also, I mean, maybe you don't live in Dallas. Maybe you live in L.A. and you want to see Michigan play against USC. Well, for under 200 bucks, you can get in to the Coliseum.

If you want to get good seats, you're still talking about high 200s into the 300s to get the good seats at the Coliseum. But you can get those on game time. And also, if you haven't made your decision yet, it's only Monday. Let's say you're going to wait until Friday or Saturday. The prices often drop as you get closer. to the time of the event. So go to game time, redeem the code staples, $20 off your first purchase,

terms apply, of course, and that price that you see on the app is the price you pay. It doesn't add a bunch of charges there at checkout. It's just that price. So go to game time. You're going to treat you fairly. You're going to get a good seat, even if it's the last minute. Ari, I am so excited about this game in the Cotton Bowl. Texas, Oklahoma.

Texas is a two and a half point favorite. That's a trap, right? We're back into the mode of is what we've seen from Texas who they are? Or is this an opportunity for them to show the world what they aren't? I don't know. Can I rephrase? Let me reframe the question. If John Matier is starting for Oklahoma, what is the line?

maybe you pick them maybe something like really almost one yeah what do you think it is i think if john mature was starting it should be oklahoma minus six and a half no my general understanding of individual players even if it's a quarterback is that they're never worth more than four or five points now i don't know worth a lot more in this game i think that in theory they are worth more i just mean in the math of the spread yeah i i got you you know Oklahoma has looked like a better football team all year. Shit. Come on, drink.

I didn't even say it, but grab a medella. I feel like I'm getting a, like one of those shot callers, you know, like, I'm going to, I'm going to break the habit, I promise. Ladies and gentlemen, that is, that was my intention all along. So you, it's working, it's working, came into the season if you're an Oklahoma fan, looking at that schedule, looking at the second half of the schedule and going. God, if we could just get to 5 and O and then play just above 500 football for the rest of the year, we have a shot at the playoff. If we could play a competitive game against Texas just to show that there isn't the stark gap that there was a year ago, man, that would be great. If we could just avoid catastrophic injuries and, you know, keep our team healthy and playing well, that would be great. Now, they've done most of those three things.

Obviously, the John McIreard. Could have been the injury to John Matur. Yeah. the John Mateer injury is a stroke of bad luck that no team in the country deserves less but I look at this team and I view them as better

than Texas at the moment. I rank Oklahoma higher. Texas by the way Texas Clemson and Penn State are all out of the AP top 25 by the way. If you would have told me that in July and deservedly so. But I would have could you imagine though those are the three most

trendy national championship picks all out of the top 25 on October four for fifth and you know might get back in Texas especially could get back in but nothing Texas has shown us so far suggests they should and nothing Texas has shown us so far suggests they're going to beat Oklahoma like what we saw from arch manning on Saturday is a scary thought when you consider the fact that Oklahoma's pass rush is probably better than Florida's and Florida was all over him all over their offensive line is not very good and I I'm going to have to go back, Ari, and reevaluate because we're testing out a lot of these theories as the game changes and the game evolves.

And my theory going into this offseason was if Texas goes hard into the portal to get offensive line, and it means they don't like what they have. And this is a program that just goes and gets what it needs in the portal. And when they didn't go get any offensive line into the portal, my thought was, oh, they've evaluated it. They know they have a capable group of people coming up, and that's what they're rolling with. So their offensive line is going to be fine, because if they didn't think it was going to be fine, they would have gone and gotten somebody. Like Isaiah World wouldn't be starting for Oregon.

He'd be starting for Texas. That's not what happened. Clearly, they missed evaluated. Clearly, they thought that group was better than it is. So I'm going to have to scrap that theory and work on a new one. but that line's not very good that's part of the reason Arch is not having a good season

but the rest of it's on Arch and they are about to play one of the most ferocious past rushes in the country there is going to be a time where we have a conversation maybe even tomorrow about the business aspect of Arch

yes we have to we need to have a deep conversation about that and that is what we're going to have tomorrow Because if you're looking at it from a 1,000-foot view right now, Andy, Oklahoma, I mean, Texas might have been better off with Quinn Ewers coming back. I don't think there's, I don't think might have even enters the equation. And my question, and maybe we can put a pin in this until tomorrow,

is whether or not Texas would have even had a choice given how much, you know, how much, how pot committed they were to Arch at that point, to bring him back it's the same it's the same question now like can you even bench him for performance like if he gets hurt that's one thing but could you even bench him for performance so we were watching the texas game together yes obviously you had eagle eyes on that game because you don't want to be up till you know all night wondering if bill and apier was going to get fired so you got a weak reprie from that but you were watching it closely i know texas you know got some scores in the second half.

But for the most part in that game, it didn't look like Texas could get anything offensively. Certainly everything it got was hard. Yes. And that is the thing that I can't get out of my head. It's not like this is an arch manning discussion because Arch Manning is a headline name. But in the column I wrote after the game, Arch Manning, if that was the only problem, Texas would be much better off.

Like Arch Manning is is the most. visible problem. Yeah. He is not the only one and maybe not the most dire. The most dire thing to me is that they can't block anybody and their defensive line keeps getting blown off the ball. And when you think about them having Ann Hill and Colin Simmons

and some of these dudes on the defensive side of the ball, their defense has been so much worse than... I did say I worried about their detackles because that is where they went to the portal. Yeah. Because they'd had such a nice run of detackles like Devandre Sweat and Alfred Collins and Vernon and all those guys. Like, they did have to go in the portal to replace them.

So I was worried about their interior defensive lines, not worried about their edges at all. And they just, I was surprised at how easily Florida moved the ball on the ground against them. Now, Oklahoma hasn't really been able to create a non-John-Meteer run game against their better opponents. So I don't know, I don't know how much that helps. Michael Hawkins Jr. is a really important person in this whole. thing. You know, he started the Texas game last year for Oklahoma. And the difference is the line in front of him is way better. The receivers he's throwing to are much better because everybody was

hurt last year. So how much does that change the math in this game? Because right now, I've still got the image in my head of him running for his life last game. And I'm thinking, oh, okay, this is going to be like the three two Mississippi State Auburn game at this point. But I don't, the more I think about it, that's probably not what's going to happen because I think Oklahoma is going to have some moments of success. But also, if you go back to that Florida game, Texas wasn't completely incompetent on offense. There were times they hit explosive plays. So I don't know that they are just going to get dominated by Oklahoma's defense. So I really don't know where to go with this. Yeah, I know where I'm going. I'm picking Oklahoma to win the game straight up. And I get nervous. And I get

nervous because I fall into traps of recency bias, and I know that things change. But Texas looks like it has, you know, this isn't one bad game. They didn't just lose to Florida after they came in undefeated. Like, this is a pattern of some offensive issues that, you know, we've seen. And I feel like you should take some advice from whoever said. But if somebody's trying to tell you who they are, like listen to them. Like, I think Texas has been trying to tell, to tell us who they are. And that stuff is not going to play.

And I know there is some debate about whether Oklahoma's defense is better than Florida's. I personally think that it is, but it is certainly as good. They get after the passer, Arch Manning was sacked seven times. This is a rivalry game. You don't want to come into a lot. And they're much better up the middle than Florida's defense is right now. Like Florida played Texas with no Caleb Banks. He's out for the year.

Yeah, like Oklahoma's detackles, maybe the best group of detackles in the country. Yeah, and one of Texas's touchdowns in the Florida game came off of a turnover, and they started very deep in Florida territory. This isn't a team that's getting much offensively, and I think that we are in the era right now where Michael Hawkins is a question mark, for sure. We don't know how good Oklahoma's offense is going to be. I think this is going to be a close game. I think it's going to be a fun game.

I know some of those rivalries in the Cotton Bowl have gone up to like 44 to 40 type shootouts. We've seen some crazy stuff. And we've seen some weird stuff with turnovers where turnovers create points. And that's, shoot, maybe that's how Texas creates

points. But we're going to find out. This is going to be a lot of fun. So you are taking the Oklahoma money line. I will take Oklahoma to cover. I'm going to be the pansy about this. Give me the points. I'll take my two and a half. If you're just going to give them to me, because I would have picked Oklahoma minus two and a half.

But if I can take them plus two and a half, I'm happy to do it. And Ari, I bet this line flips during the week. Yeah, it might. It might. People love betting on Texas, just so you know. That's true. That's true. The public does love betting on Texas.

But the public is probably souring on Texas, just like Texas fans are souring on Texas. I mean, it was crazy. Watching Texas fans criticized Steve Sarkesian, basically he became Billy Napier and James Franklin rolled into one overnight because it's now a can't win the big one and also needs to hire an offensive coordinator. So, like, he is all the criticism lobbed at Billy Napier, all the criticism lobbed at James Franklin, all getting it now. Steve Sarkesian is 2 and 8 versus top 10 teams at Texas and he's 5 and 18 versus top 10 teams all time. last season he played one SEC team who finished and the season ranked and lost both of them now has lost to Florida

is Steve Sarkesian worthy of being in the James Franklin conversation I don't think he is but that's these are the types of tweets that I'm seeing from Texas people that tip river for sending that to one to us but I've been seeing them all week so they're all weekend

I think we should talk about that later in the week too whether or not we have a lot to talk about with Texas. We definitely do. Is Steve Sarkesian above criticism this year? Nobody who makes that much money is above criticism. I mean, like, I'm talking

like criticism that leads to, I'm out on that guy. Like, if you're a Texas fan and you're out on Steve. I don't think you should be out on anybody, especially at this point in his Texas career, when he has brought Texas back to a point that they had not been in a while.

But yes, the criticism right now is valid. And like I said, anybody making that amount of money, you can criticize them any time you want. Because Penn State fans are out on James Franklin, and I'm not going to defend Franklin. I try the last week. Yeah, he's been the coach there for 11 years. It's a little bit different situation. And the whole buildup factor of it, too.

We'll get to that this week. I think we should talk about it. We should. We will. Stay tuned later in the week. We are going to talk more about Archmanning and more about Steve Sarkesian. Now we move to South Bend, Indiana, where NC State comes in as a 20. 22 and a half point underdog to the Notre Dame fighting Irish.

Ari, is Notre Dame just going to march unobstructed to 10 and 2? Is that what we're watching? Yes. Yeah, they sure are. So NC State was won at the beginning of the season. I said, this is a sneaky one, watch out. C.J. Bailey's a good quarterback. I still believe that.

But if you are going to lose to zombie Virginia Tech, which is what NC State did a couple of weeks ago, then I have no faith in you to go beat Notre Dame or even be close. Notre Dame didn't look all that sharp on Saturday, Andy. They didn't. They didn't. But NC State's defense has had a habit of making teams look pretty sharp. Yeah. I think Notre Dame is going to waltz to 10 and 2,

and we're going to give the playoff stuff a breather this week. I think that Notre Dame is going to win this game comfortably, but do you think they're going to win it by more than 22 and a half? I think it's an interesting proposition. Yes, I do. I think they're going to control this thing. I think C.J. Bailey may hit a couple throws, but I think this is a Jeremiah loves Gedarian Price,

just kind of control things, and they'll hit some explosives. Like, CJ Carr is going to hit some throws, and it is a Notre Dame's going to score a lot of points. I'm sorry right now. This is a Notre Dame scores over 40 kind of game. Wonder if, I wonder if the CJ Car discussion about how well he's played this year

would be different if Notre Dame had won fewer loss. Oh, we'd be talking about him for the Heisman. If Tyler Buckner gets that extra point snap down, we are talking about C.J. Carr for the Heiseman. Do you watch her right now? And then would have gone down the field either way. You're probably right. I'll talk about my eggs like that.

Go get them, eggs. Well, we're actually going to talk about the eggs next. I'm going to take the point. Let's pick this game and get to the college station. I will take Notre Dame to cover the 22 and a half at home. How about you? I'll take the 22 and a half. This is the first one that we're different sides on.

I think Notre Dame will score 40. I think it's possible that NC State gets to, you know, 24. And, you know, I'm thinking more like a 42 type, like 42, 24 type game. So you'll take NC State to cover. I will take Notre Dame to cover. Let us go to college station for another. fascinating matchup in the SEC. Florida coming off a win against Texas goes to Texas A&M, which is undefeated.

This line opened at eight and a half. It is now Texas A&M by seven and a half. And I kind of figured it would head that way because I don't know about you. This feels a little bit to me like the A&M Auburn game that we watched a couple of weeks ago, where I think both teams may struggle to get into the end zone against the other team. Tell people what you were telling me as we were walking down the hallways in the stadium in Florida State at Doke. We were walking out of the elevator. I remember it vividly.

After Florida 1, you're like, well, next week, this is going to look like what? The Auburn, Texas A&M game. That's what I said. because I think now Florida with Dallas Wilson you've seen what they can do you've seen with all their weapons the DJ Lagway can be a good quarterback Jaden Baugh obviously makes a huge difference as well this defense is probably better than the Texas defense based on what we've seen now Notre Dame scored a ton of points on A&M so maybe maybe Florida can turn this into a shootout but I think this is probably going to be a little more, you know, people are going to make mistakes

because DJ didn't make many mistakes on Saturday, but he's made a lot of mistakes this season. And A&M and the, like, the Kyle Field Stadium Pulse is going to be all the way to the right on this, in this game. So probably you're going to see some turnovers. I think both quarterbacks are going to turn the ball over. I think Marcel Reed will too. And it really is going to come down to who capitalizes on. of the mistakes.

Go get them, Ags. I just like how they sound. Go get them, I am going to take Florida in this game. Are you? I think A&M is going to win.

I'm going to take Florida to cover. I am obsessed with the infusion of what Dallas Wilson brings to Florida's offense. I'm obsessed with the way that Jaden Baugh is running

the football, and I have obsessed with the right about DJ Lagway. I think that that's an Lall already. I don't think I can get it back. I don't think he can keep getting better this season and be a respectable quarterback by the end of the scene. I also think, I will point this out, the Texas game was the best

we've seen from Florida's offensive line all season. Like, they were opening holes. They were protecting DJ better than they've protected him. So I think that part matters too. Like, if they come in there and play well, they've got a chance to win this game. This is the distinction that I need to make. I thought Florida had a chance at making the college football playoff this year because DJ Lagway was Superman and would be unstoppable.

I don't think that's the case this year and we'll see if that's ever the case in the future. I don't think it's going to be the case this year. But that does not mean that I don't think that DJ Lagway can play serviceable too well when it helped. Right. And they have considerable talent

on this team. Yeah. We've been watching the defense play well the entire way. The offense showed up against Texas. And the thought is if the offense shows up, they can play with anybody. And it's true. They can. I just don't know.

And I don't know if I believe yet that the offense is going to show up over and over and over again. We have one game of evidence of what they look like when they have an insanely good pass-catching weapon. And in that one game, they were. able to run the football and throw the football highly effectively. Now, I still just said that I think that A&M is going to win. So I'm not out here forecasting that 40. You're not going crazy.

You're not going crazy. But I do think that A&M is a very good football team, but it can be scored on. I think Florida is going to score on them. So nine and a half I'm going to take. I don't think that DJ Legway is going to be a common. It's seven and a half, sorry. Seven and a half, sorry. I don't think he's going to be a comic book hero, Andy.

But I think that he's going to look much better than he had in the first three weeks of the season. I think Florida is going to be a more competent football team. What kind of team? They're going to be a more competent team than we've seen from the first three weeks. I think this is going to be a competitive SEC game on the road, and I'll take a score plus. So the one thing that can change the math on this is if Texas A&M does what they did to Florida last year, which I'm not sure that they can

because I think Florida's defense is better than that. But last year, if you watch that game, Texas A&M just dominated up front. That was the one where Connor Wegman turned out to be hurt and they start Marcel Reed for the first time. And it's like, oh, this is a completely different offense with him at the helm. And I don't think they really knew

what they had yet. And obviously, it didn't really get unlocked until they added Mario Craver and Casey Concepcion through the portal this year. But I will point out that Leveon Moss is averaging 5.3 yards of carry. Ruben Owens is averaging 7 yards of carry. If they are gashing Florida's defense, there's a, there's a path for A&M to cover this game. Well, sure, sure. I will take the Kyle Field crowd. I mean, it isn't fair. that A&M gets to play with 12 people and Florida has to play with 11. Florida had 12 last week. Swamp crowd's a pretty good 12th man too.

But yeah, I will take the Kylefield crowd, the Texas AM offensive line. That I think can be the difference. Does that mean that you think that A&M is back or that they're dangerous as hell this year? Like are you off. A&M's never been there. Yes, they are dangerous as hell. But you think you can't be back unless you've been there.

Does this feel different? different to you, though? Do they feel like it does? They feel remarkably competent. And I think that we've had the Mike Elko discussion. I think that that really just keeps coming through. So, and I think the Mississippi State game is a great example because Mississippi State is better than people think. And we're giving A&M a hell of a game. And then A&M just broke them by the end. Like, just broke them. And I think that's the kind of team A&M is. So, and, you know, I also resent the fact that you said that A&M is not. never been there. You clearly aren't remembering their 1939 national championship. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. They have been there. It's been a long trek back. It's been a while. Okay. That's all this on Instagram yesterday that you can walk from South Africa to the tip of Argentina without ever crossing water. And it would take you 10 years to walk. Maybe. Maybe A&M's going to walk in. Maybe they have

finally stepped foot into Argentina. Yeah. Well, listen, A&M can afford private jet, so I don't know why they're walking. You can basically walk all the way around the world and go through Alaska. And I think part of the walk, you have to do it in the winter. And there's some highly dangerous like rainforest. For someone who knows so little about basic geography, I'm shocked that you know this stuff. I saw it on Instagram yesterday.

I was like enthralled by it. You can walk. Yeah, you think the entirety of Florida is the evidence too. If you go, you don't know what time zone you're in half the time. I don't. I don't know. Give me Texas A&M to cover the seven and a half. but I understand we may be watching Miracle Run Billy, maybe, but I'll take Texas

and say I'm in the cover. Ari, we're into the, we're into the mix of juicy SEC games, like plotline driven SEC games. Let's head down to the loveliest village on the plains. Georgia at Auburn, the Bulldogs are a three and a half point favored on the road. And I will tell you, Ari, you've not been to Jordan Hare, have you? No, I've never been to Auburn, period. Okay.

There are days in Jordan Hare Stadium where the 1985 Bears could roll in, and they would lose. There are just those days. That crowd is incredible, but it's not just them, because sometimes it's the team on the field. this Auburn team clearly still has a lot of talent. They are trying desperately to not start out 0 and 3 in SEC play. Georgia is okay. They are good. They're above average.

They're potentially a playoff team. I don't know if they're a playoff team, though. They got to be able to win a game like this to make the playoff. This is a strange situation because the Auburn backlash began a while ago. The anti-Hugh-Free's backlash in the Auburn fan base began before the season start. But if he starts out 0-and-3 in the SEC, it will become overwhelming. And it may be the end of Hugh Freeze at Auburn or the beginning of the end of Hugh Freeze at Auburn if he loses this game. That is a pretty powerful motivating factor.

Plus, the Auburn fan base, even if they've given up on Hugh Freeze, never gives up on Auburn. like you saw the last the last time they fired a coach after they fired brian harsen that suddenly became the toughest place to play in america when when cadillac was the was the interim coach so this team is capable of beating Georgia especially on one of those days at jordan hair the question is will it happen will kirby smart gunner stockton the bulldogs will they let it happen so in the week leading into the georgia alabama game you and river sent some text messages but i think it was mostly you about my pick of alabama and how georgia's just going to win and i think part of that was because if the dude hadn't dropped the touchdown pass

georgia would have won perfect that helps the point i'm about to make now i hear you you say that Georgia may not even be a playoff team, which I agree with. I felt that way then, too. I just thought Georgia was going to beat Alabama. How much of the Georgia aura still exists in your mind? And how much of that- None of it to Auburn players. Like, this is not a team that is going to be intimidated by the G on the side of the

helmet or the silver bridges. None of that will matter to Auburn players playing in Jordan Hare Stadium. None of it. I am just curious that, like, if they are 65% of what they used to be, which is a lot. It might sound like an insult to Georgia fans, but if the thing that has been ailing Auburn all year, which is quarterbacks throwing onto the ball too long, and when I say quarterbacks, I mean Jackson Arnold, the difficulty they're having getting the ball. to some of their dynamic receivers, all those

things, like play into what I perceive to be Georgia's strengths. And that's what scares me about this. Now, I know that there is Jordan Hare Voodoo. And I know that... Sureden. Yes. What did I say? You said Jordan. His name is Shug Jurdon.

Man, you're just correcting the shit out of me today. I'm sorry. Yeah. I just know how the folks in Auburn feel about that. I get very upset when people say Jordan Hare Stadium. I don't know how to, I don't speak French. I don't know what you just said.

I don't even know where I was wrong. Jordan. How's it spelled? How's it spelled? Michael Jordan. Shug Jordan. How does it spelled? It's spelled J-O-R-D-A-N.

It is pronounced Jordan. I'm fine with that mistake. I've made bigger one. Their weakness seems to play into Georgia's strength. It scares me, doesn't it? what's their weakness uh holding onto the ball too long and having a hard what what is georgia rank in sacks per game oh are they having a bad bad year with their sacks right yeah they rank one hundred ninth in the country in sacks per game that's crazy their weakness does not play

into george's strength that's crazy is it been that bad terrible like they don't have a good pass rush. And so that's the question is, does Jackson Arnold hold onto the ball so long that Georgia can actually get to him? Or is this the one team that Jackson Arnold is going to be able to get the ball out against? That really, how you answer that question will determine how you pick this game. I'm dumbfounded right now. Wow. See, I was assigning old Georgia qualities to Yeah, so you can't assume. And I've been the one all year to say, don't do that. Yeah.

Yeah, pass rush or lack thereof has been the Georgia defense's biggest problem this year. The question is, is that because they've had to play Ty Simpson, who gets the ball out quick and is decisive? But Carter Bowley is not the greatest quarterback in the world. Yeah, this is difficult. How do you feel about that question alone is how you'll pick this game? Like, if you think Georgia's going to get there and get home and sack Jackson Arnold, then you will take Georgia cover.

If you think that Jackson Arnold will be able to get the ball out because Georgia can't get there, you should pick Auburn. I don't know. I don't know. I was going to pick Georgia. and now I now I might not got you in a blender now you did yeah no I'm like I'm flustered right now can you not tell well and but that's the thing like I it's one of those deals where we're early enough in the season we still don't know what it all means and I think that that's the hardest part with with Georgia because there is talent there are future NFL players uh Joey Aguilar threw for 371 against Georgia now he's a more decisive passer and again it may be just because they've played joey agar and tie simpson who are very decisive passers who get the ball out on time that may be why their

stats are down they only had two sacks against kentucky and i watched that whole game and it felt like they were terrorizing them they were in his face now i look the kirby defense has never valued sacks they value disruption of the quarterback more than they value sacks because a disrupted quarterback might throw an interception. So it's not. I mean, that's how I made the mistake. Yeah, it's not necessarily the, the act of getting the quarterback on the ground. Like, if you are in his face, you're still doing the job.

Yeah. But we just watched Georgia for four quarters put an opposing quarterback through hell. And that was the last thing that I saw. So to hear the actual statistics of how bad they are of getting home is still rattling my brain. It's still not good. Their pressure rate's not good. It's one of the lower ones in the country. Yeah.

Their havoc rate is not good. I still think I'm going to pick Georgia, man. I still think I'm going to do it. I want to see Jackson Arnold punish somebody. this may be the team maybe because he is he is athletic and if he slips out he can gain some yards but i also am interested in in george's offense like how much do they just lean on so like chauncey bowers like maybe just let chauncey bowers run all over somebody alber's defense is not is pretty good it's not going to be easy to do that necessarily but

Maybe just a little, just a heavy dose of Chauncey Bowers and Nate Frisier. Like, let's, let's go back to old Georgia. This is, this is the old Georgian. The entire game, you nailed it, man. This entire game is whether or not Georgia can sack or disrupt Jackson Arnold or if Jackson Arnold can deliver into Georgia's actual weakness, which is their secondary, right? Mm-hmm. Their secondary is their weakness, not their front seven.

we're going to find out we're going to find out you you're going to take georgia to cover i'm scared told you my theme today is i i'm a little worried because i'm too high on i'm changing my mind favorite there you go all right i mean i'm still taking georgia right now i'm looking at the stats right now when their past defense is porous and their pressure rates are bad um and the thing that i thought would kill auburn in this game plus the what is it jordan How do you say it? Jordan. Jordan.

Jordan. Jordan is Bill Belichick's girlfriend. Is that how you pronounce her name? No. Oh. Jordan. It's out spelled. Jordan.

Jordan. Hair. There, you got it. If you're going to pick Auburn, you got to pronounce the stadium correctly, and now you are. I've never heard anybody pronounce it that way. Maybe it's because I'm a Yankee big. Everybody who pronounced it correctly pronounced it that way. I know, but the mistake I made is a common one, right?

um by non ball knower sure i'm a non ball knower i'm a bond i'm a non southern ball knower yeah producer river just in our group text for a casual sure yeah now look i have an unfair advantage on this shook jordan and my mom are from the same small hometown in alabama so yeah you're both from selma so you have inside her information spent serious time in selma and you don't know how to pronounce Shug Jurdon's name, you have a problem. So I did pay attention in my childhood. So I'm going to take Georgia, though. I will take Georgia to cover. I, again, very scared because I'm a little high on road favorites in this game, or in this week. It's really hard still because of muscle memory to pick against Georgia. It really

this is more me voting against the current Auburn administration which I believed in thought they were going to be a nine-win team this year but I haven't seen them make any adjustments to do anything any better or any differently and so I'm saying they're probably going to be the same and George is going to squeak it out like I don't think George is going to dominate it Cam Coleman breakout game coming up okay well I mean he Last year was against A&M. So it's possible against a good team. It can be done.

Ari, let's go back to the Big Ten. Michigan at USC. Am I reading this right? You are. I think I wrote this wrong. I'm looking at my notes. Wait, no, USC's a two and a half point favorite in this game. Yep.

Huh. Huh. Right? Right. I thought Michigan was. was a two and a half point favorite in this game let me double check i'm heading to my bed mgm app as we'll see is a two and a half point favorite yeah u sc's two and a half point favorite okay okay and it's funny because i copied it down correctly in my notes and that's why i was like

oh all right this is the game that's supposed to put me in a pretzel not the other one well this game does put me in a pretzel because i still think u sss explosive enough on offense that they could have a game where even playing as a team that punches them in the mouth doesn't matter because Mackay Lemon has caught, you know, eight passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns. That's my issue there because we can say all we want. Look at what Michigan did to them last year. They did a two-minute drill without even throwing the ball, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and maybe they can still do that on USC, but I'm not sure if USC's offense has improved

as much as it looks like it has, and they do what they did to Illinois at the end of the game, but maybe a little bit more at the beginning of the game, I mean, they could just jump on somebody and then Michigan's not built to come back. I would have said that Michigan wasn't built to come back last year when they were down late and they had a two minutes through. I know, I know. This is why it's so hard to pick this game. That two minute drill with no throwing was, I think, the most moralizing thing I've ever

seen take place. It's the most emasculating drive I've ever seen in football. The most emasculating drive. I am really torn here, man, because I went on this huge diatribe about, diatribe about like

how USC cannot compete with teams that sock you in the mouth and play physical trenches oriented football and every single time that happens and it shows up that, you know, the result is the same when they lost to Illinois. We also watch Michigan play with its food for three hours against Wisconsin the other day.

This is the epitome of what USC struggles with. Is it not? It is. And it's a better version of Michigan than last year. Are they better defensively than last year? You always know staff. They don't have Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. I don't know if they're better defensively.

I think they're good defensively, but last year's defense was really good. yeah and so that's that's the other question is because i think u s's offense is unquestionably better than it was last year and if jade maiava and mckeye lemon are hooking up all over the field i don't know but they but the thing is they did that against illinois they still lost yeah i'm really struggling with this because i think that u sc can score and i don't think Michigan's that good this year. And by not that good, I mean, like, top 25-ish team, not great, not terrible. Right, you're saying they are a top 25-ish team, but not a playoff type team.

Yeah, they're a good enough team to beat you, but they're not a team that's going to beat everyone. Does that make sense? It does. It makes perfect sense. But I think USC should be better, and I don't know whether I should lean into that or lean into the thing that beats USC, which is physical bully. ball. Well, and they're not at Michigan Stadium this time, but I don't know that the Coliseum gives USC a prohibitive advantage either. This isn't like the Peak Carroll era where the Coliseum was a really scary place. I know we're a few years into this now, but do you buy into time zone stuff

or does it not even matter if it's a night game? Well, it's a night. It's not going to feel any different for anybody, I don't think. I mean, Michigan. Michigan players are used to playing in the afternoon. So it's going to be 4.30 local time when they kick off. The early games are the ones that are supposed to be the body clock games, not the night ones, I think. And it feels like we don't talk about, like east to west, the body clock thing doesn't seem to matter.

Now maybe when Michigan State was kicking off at 11 p.m. local time, that was different. But Michigan plays 7.30 p.m. games. Yeah. I'm not that unusual for them. I'm going to pick USC and I'm going to hate it. I'm going to pick Michigan. I was going to pick USC when I thought they were the underdog.

Basically, I'm just picking, I'm picking whoever I get points for in this game. Because I think it's going to be close. So whoever gets points, I'm taking them. And so I'm taking Michigan. I must have misread it initially and thought that,

or just, assumed that Michigan was the favorite. So I was going to take USC because I got the two and a half points. I will take Michigan because I get the two and a half points. Do you think that Michigan's better than Illinois? Yes. Okay. Yes.

I think Illinois's office, but a little bit. I think Illinois is a better offense. Probably, yes. That's one of those I think by the end of the season when Bryce Underwood has a whole season under his belt. Maybe we say that the Michigan's is at. good or maybe better but yeah yeah yeah so i think michigan's defense is significantly better than illinois i think that u sc will be able to score 31 in this game 28 and i think michigan will score five points less we will find out we will find out but but if michigan goes out the

And just beats the crap out of them. And this is the same thing. Like I am a hundred. Like USC, this is your last chance. And I know I've been out. But if you get just bullied, I think the USC fan base feels the same way.

I think this is a, this is an in or out on Lincoln Riley game. Like, because I think USC fans have been pretty patient with Lincoln Riley to this point. I think if Michigan comes in and bullies them and they beat them the way, like let's say the Michigan, Nebraska game just. plays out at the Coliseum.

Michigan hits a bunch of explosive runs, wins by three on the road. That's when the USC fans go, okay, done, because this is what we're always going to be. That's what they're going to say. If USC loses,

but it's because Bryce Underwood has his best game. It may be a little bit different situation. It'll be a different situation. If USC loses to a team that struggles to throw the ball. Yeah. because they aren't If it is the Michigan Nebraska game all over again

it's really bad for Lincoln Riley I agree or maybe he beats Michigan gets that monkey off his back and they get punched in the mouth they still win anyway I feel like such a West Coast sucker though dude

well I mean you romanticize the place yeah I do because I mean is it romanticizing if it's not true or if it's true the sun shines all the time the temperature is always perfect it's pretty nice taxes are really high though if you had unlimited money the fact that you're still living in florida blows my mind oh i'd still have you ever been to malibu california i have like that like to me is the closest thing that that you could ever get to to perfection and and you know what if i had a limited money i could fly from my uh

my house, or I could, well, drive to Miami from my house in the Keys and take a private jet to Malibu anytime I wanted to. Yeah, I guess. If you needed to do that, then I would just want to exist there, but that's a different discussion. We're going to put you in Isle Marotta for a week and then see how you feel about that because. That is a place where the weather's also always perfect. So where's that? Where's that? Hmm? Ilamara. What part of Florida? What part of Florida's that the keys the weather's always perfect in the keys yeah it like rains half the time there doesn't it and there's like a bunch of bad hurricanes for 45 minutes and it stops good Lord and doesn't it get humid as hell down there it's not humid in the keys there's a breeze always

the humidity doesn't matter listen I'm not trying to talk bad about the keys I've been through them they're beautiful don't get me wrong but there's no beach room I I have no beach go fishing like a man you're going to start doing manly things to what's going to appeal to me have we met they've got spas in the keys too are you yeah they do have your feet rub but my my idea of perfect weather is 72 degrees

to 68 degrees chilly in the morning chilly in the evening and yeah we we dispensed with the chili in the keys there's no chili you're just always it's always chili is the best ever I like being chilly bill high 72 low 72 speaking of that i did drive through um rosemary beach on the way to florida state isn't that when they filmed pleasantville no uh no you're thinking of the truman show which was filmed in seaside

which is eight yeah truans show yeah yeah but that was that was spectacular like i'm not trying to like florida would be oh it's awesome redneck remire is awesome if i had four if i had unlimited money florida would be in the top four in america of states 15 hour drive from the keys by yeah couldn't be a further place state not that's I am hoping for you, Andy, and I hope that you're hoping for me that we both get to live in those places one day. Oh, I got a feeling. I got faith. I got faith.

All right. Next up, we just talked about Lincoln Riley and whether that fan base will be out on him after this game. We go to Baton Rouge, where another fan base may be out on a coach after this game. this is a back against the wall game for both teams, which is weird because one of them has two losses and one of them has one. Like South Carolina, going to LSU,

LSU is a nine and a half point favorite. South Carolina's back is truly against the wall. This is a season that the Gamecocks started with playoff aspirations. If they lose this game, those are dead in, you know, the second week of October, dead,

never coming back. LSU could lose, and still be in the mix. But if they did lose, I do believe the fan base would completely lose faith. Yeah. So you're telling me

that LSU is donating multiple scores to an opponent in a football game, and I was redundant on purpose that time. I agree. I didn't correct you because I knew you were trying to make a point here. Nine and a half,

when I saw that line, my eyes bugged out. Now, I don't know if this is one of those games where it's like everybody's going to take the points because it's a lot of points and LSU's offensive struggling and then they just come out and figure it out and then everyone's wrong

because that happens from time to time. It definitely does. But I say the LSU Ole Miss game was a good example of that last year, not the one that just happened, but the one last year in Baton Rouge. Yeah, but it does seem like an excessively large spread, doesn't it? It does. It does.

And so, I just I don't know what to think about this one but I will say a stat that concerns me for LSU is so Kentucky excuse me not Kentucky

Ole Miss struggled to run the ball against Kentucky no I'm mixing it up Kentucky and Arkansas ran the ball effectively on Ole Miss. That's where I'm going with this.

Kentucky and Arkansas ran the ball effectively on Ole Miss, and LSU could not. That's troubling. If Kentucky can do it, you should be able to do it. If Arkansas can do it, you should be able to do it. So we have seen a team run the ball effectively on South Carolina, and that was Missouri. Missouri averaged six yards to carry in South Carolina.

Vanderbilt averaged four yards of and dominated that game. But I wouldn't say it was just because of the way they ran the ball. But Missouri showed you can very effectively run on South Carolina's defense. I'm not sure LSU is capable of it. And if LSU's not, see, if you can run on South Carolina's defense, that eliminates or reduces the possibility of Dillon Stewart taking your quarterback's head off. Which weakness are you more willing to forgive?

South Carolina's rush defense? or LSU's inability to move the ball on the ground? Against LSU, South Carolina's rush defense. Because one, since Joe Sloan's been the offensive coordinator, LSU has never really tried to establish the run, and they've abandoned it too early every time. And two, I'm not sure it's there. I'm not sure they have it.

So I worry if they can't run the ball effectively, what that means for Garrett Nussberg. because again, Dylan Stewart is a freaking billion. You do not want him knowing you're going to throw almost every play. In the fear of ruffling some feathers, as I've been known to do, we have spent a lot of time this year analyzing our off-season quarterback rankings. And there were a few other quarterbacks that were on those rankings. Kings that aren't having great years and they're both in this game yes stick on on uh south

carolina for a second lenora sellers we thought might be up there in the lagway conversation the whole off season was lagway versus sellers who's going to be that guy and it was now it's lagway versus sellers who's disappointed you more has lenora sellers disappointed at the same rate and are you hopeful that he can find something? He's having a much better season than DJ Lagway. I mean, he's averaging 10.2 yards in attempt, and it's not like that was all against the bad teams they played. Like he was efficient against Vanderbilt got knocked out of the game.

He was efficient against Missouri in a loss, but Missouri, like we said, control the ball on the ground. I think Lenora Sellers is probably going to show up and do fine. I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball on LSU. This is a very good LSU defense. And I do think they can probably go to Lenora Sellers into some mistakes. Now, he's only thrown one pick this year.

But if they can knock the ball loose, force a couple interceptions, all of a sudden, it's a very different game. And we've seen that. Like we saw LSU intercept DJ Legway five times. And that's why they won that game. I mean, they only scored 13 points on offense against four. yeah yeah too many points

Andy but you want to do Garrett Nussmeyer now let's do Garrett Nussmeyer is he injured is he not injured

the fact that we have to have this discussion all year about how I think they've said it now I mean

Brian Kelly's admitted it that he's hurt yeah so the question is how bad is he hurt

and how much is it affecting what he can do yeah all these quarterbacks. It's like Clemson, Penn State, and Texas are all out of the top 25, and all of the best quarterbacks in the country aren't playing like it. And I wonder which one of the quarterbacks in this game has a chance to elevate their team.

And I think a lot of it is going to have to do with which team can run the ball well. And I don't know which team I think I'm more likely that will run the ball. One of a stat, by the way, that I will throw out to you, that Brian Kelly threw out when he got mad getting asked about the run game. Under Brian Kelly, they're 13 and 1 in Death Valley at night.

They're playing in Death Valley at night. The only loss is that Alabama game last year. So they show up. The fans sure as hell show up. I would think that does play a factor. That would move me if we were picking the game straight up. Oh, yeah. That's the thing.

It definitely favors LSU winning straight up. But yes, we're talking about nine and a half freaking points. Yeah, I'll take the nine and a half. And, you know, I'll, you know, LSU might have me beat, but the river's there. I feel pretty good about my hand and I'm calling to see it. Well, and the thing is this is a very different conversation. We're doing a pick-hicking against the spread show. And LSU covering the spread does not matter as long as they win in terms of are they out on Brian Kelly.

South Carolina has to win this game. this is a must win for South Carolina or the season they thought they could have is over, and then they have to recalibrate their goals. That is the issue. So I don't know. This is going to be a tough, tough situation. Man, this is a hard one to pick if it's straight up. This is a very easy one to pick with this spread.

I will take South Carolina plus all of those points. That is so many freaking points, Ari. What's the trick here? What's the trap? I don't understand. I don't know. I don't know. Because I definitely feel like there's something amiss.

Locked on. Maybe it is. Maybe it's as simple as this is the game that Garrett Nussmeyer feels great, gets unlocked, slings it around, and throws for 400 yards. Maybe that's it. Maybe that's all it is. But, I mean, think about it just doesn't make sense. How many times during a college football Saturday, you're watching games and going,

what am I? What is going on here? So like seven times a day? It was a lot last week for sure. Yeah. So, like, it's really hard to pick these because the prizes happen harder for you than me, apparently. It is. It's been a really rough year for me, both emotionally, spiritually, and financially, if you really

want to get down to it because Andy gets over here with his with his sexy record I'm losing money you know I'm just glad we didn't I'm just glad we didn't count the Q record last year I don't know we didn't and I'm sorry about that I we failed you as a podcast but my my record was terrible last year so yeah I did pretty good last year I made money last year and also the one thing that we never account for on the show is how good I am at sniping live lines that's true that's true you got to follow Ari on Twitter. I never tweet so now. But like, you know, Andy and I were watching the Illinois Purdue game

and he was watching me sweat in real time. I was like, I was on Purdue 17 and a half. Slowly die inside. Yeah. 17 and a half and that hit, you know. But, you know, these big games are difficult. I feel like pretty down on how I've done this year. If you want to start fading me, that's fine.

But I am dangerous to get hot at any moment. So be careful what you wish for. We'll see what happens in this game. But Andy, I think you and I were on the same page on all but two. of the games today. So, yeah, I'm worried about that. But hey, South Carolina to cover, you're going to give us that many points. We'll take them.

Ari, I think we're going to have a deep, deep archmanning conversation tomorrow. Sure. I don't know. You tell me, people are going to be mad about that? Or is that what people want to talk about? The only people who could be mad about it are Texas. fans. Texas fans are not amped at the moment, and I don't think that we will have a big backlash.

No, but I think it's an interesting philosophical debate. I think it's a fascinating conversation that goes beyond Texas. It's a college football in 2025 conversation. Right. It just happens to involve the most famous last name in college football. But we got to have it. So, oh, deep archman in conversation. We'll talk to you then.

Thank you.