Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Week 8 PICKS | Tennessee-Alabama, USC-Notre Dame, Ole Miss-Georgia, LSU-Vanderbilt

Episode Date: October 13, 2025

As the football season continues to churn along, it's time for the week 8 slate in college football. Headlined by games such as Tennessee at Alabama and USC at Notre Dame, this week is sure to provide plenty of fireworks. Watch here as Andy & Ari pick this week's top games of the week! (0:00) On Today's Episode(0:28) BetMGM(2:06) Intro: James Franklin and the coaches carousel(5:58) Week 8 Slate -  Friday Night: Louisville at Miami(7:29) Records through Week 7(8:46) Continuing Louisville at Miami (-13.5)(13:07) LSU at Vanderbilt (-2.5)(16:27) Gametime(17:27) LSU-Vanderbilt, con't(20:39) Georgia Tech at Duke (-2.5)(27:38) Penn State at Iowa (-3.5)(33:42) Academy Sports + Outdoors(35:55) Ole Miss at Georgia (-6.5)(44:22) Texas Tech at Arizona State (+11.5)(50:45) Tennessee at Alabama (-8.5)(1:00:10) USC at Notre Dame (-8.5)(1:10:05) Utah at BYU (+3.5)(1:15:13) Conclusion - See you tomorrow! A jam packed show you won't want to miss picking this week's slate of games! Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Our show is sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoors! https://www.academy.com/c/backpack Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube: https://youtu.be/7-xI5Njzsqs Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ariane 3, we're picking some games. And boy, are there some big ones? You got a Friday night matchup in Miami with Louisville. You got Ole Miss headed to Georgia. LSU headed to Vanderbilt. The hardest game left on Georgia Tech's schedule? Question mark. Tennessee going to Alabama.

And of course, USC headed to Notre Dame. We're picking them all right now on Andy and Orion 3 presented by BetMGM. We've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We will be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join BetMGM, you'll get access to a variety of Parlay selection features like same game parlayes, live betting options and more. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as in college football, CFB, and you will get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how that works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up.

using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See betmgm.com for terms 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers are not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem.

Call 1-800 gambler in the U.S. call 8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y. 4673169 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. Call 1-800-3-2-0-0-0-0-0 in Massachusetts. Call 1-800-off in Iowa or 1-8001-9-802 3 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to ADRMP presented by BetMGMG. It is a pick show, and oh my lord, do we have a lot of games to pick, Ari. We had to leave a few on the table. We'll probably have some bonus picks during the week, just because this is a loaded slate. A lot of storylines going on.

a lot of great games. We will get to that in a second. I know there's probably some folks who, I don't know, slept through Sunday or had to work Sunday or just were busy Sunday with real life and are wondering, wait, you guys are talking about James Franklin? Yes, don't worry. We talked plenty about James Franklin. We did that as it happened when James Franklin was fired on Sunday.

So there is a video on the On Three Sports YouTube channel breaking it all down. That is also in the podcast feed. You can read my column on why Penn State had to pay James Franklin's buyout, even though it was so huge, why they had to do this now and not wait. You can read Ari's unfiltered takes from the weekend, and, oh, boy, are there a lot of them? If you're watching on video right now, if you want to go to my column right now, there's a QR code on the screen. You just hit it, you can read it.

The James Franklin breakdown video is also embedded in there. So we are trying here on three to give you everything you need all in one place, and hopefully that's working for you. But we did hit that very hard on Sunday. And so all the James Franklin stuff, the breakdowns, we'll obviously get more into it this week. We've got to get more into some of the other potential job openings coming up because Luke Fickle had a comment after the game Saturday night at Wisconsin

that was mind-blowing. I went and watched it, Andy, after. Was it as uncomfortable as it was when I read it? It was. I watched the entire Luke Fickle News conference after the game. Yeah. And, you know, well, the one thing, the question that you're referring to, which is, Luke, do you feel like the program's in better shape now than it was when you took over? The first word that came out of his mouth was no. And in year four or year three, three full years, that just can't, it doesn't matter what the circumstance is. That can't be the answer. But it was just, he said that was rock bottom, you know, acknowledged all the things that you need to acknowledge. But, you know, it is an uncomfortable situation there. And I think that that's run its course. I don't think there can be. year for there. Yeah, we need to talk about that. We need to talk about Florida because those situations do feel pretty much settled, but have not been settled yet. So Ari has his unfiltered

takes. He has a very interesting one on Luke Fickle in his unfiltered takes column. If you want to look at that now, hit the QR code that's on the screen. And while we're driving people to traffic, I also had a bonus column that you helped me with yesterday about whether or not programs are going to keep. Ah, I'm glad you mentioned that already because I am going to have a column that We'll come out. We have a lot of columns if you haven't noticed. Yeah, we've been inspired. But I'm going to have a column that's coming out Tuesday.

And we'll talk about this on Tuesday's show, along with Luke Fickle. We're scheduled to have Tim Skipper, the UCLA interim coach, who's maybe the hottest coach in America on the show on Tuesday. UCLA is a favorite this weekend. I don't know if you saw that. We'll get into that because the lines, I think, when people who have not been paying as much attention in the last few weeks, when they look at these lines and see the helmets next to the numbers, they're going to be. be like, what is this witchcraft? What's going on? What does Vegas know? But we're going to get into that. And I don't think, I actually don't think this is a what does Vegas know that we don't weekend. I think this is a, Vegas is watching the games and maybe everybody's not watching all the

games. But we're going to talk about the fickle situation, Billy Napier at Florida. We'll get into the contracts, what athletic directors need to do in this next round of hires. Because basically like a quarter of the power conference teams are going to change coaches this off season. So it's going to going to be a lot to talk about. But right now we have a lot to talk about because incredible slate of games this weekend and we need to pick them. We're going to start on Friday night. Louisville heads to Miami. Now Miami had an interesting schedule the way it broke down. So they beat Florida. They get a week off. They beat Florida State. They get another week off. Now all of their games are in a row. They don't get a break between now and the end of the

season. But the sprint starts with the toughest game remaining on their schedule. So the fact that Miami is a 13.5 point favorite against Louisville should tell you what it's going to look like the rest of the way for Miami. And Louisville, the last we saw them, they also had last week off. Last we saw them, they were losing to Virginia at home in overtime. So this is. The first loss of the season. Yeah. But yes. This is going to be an interesting game. It's Friday night. If this were at Louisville, I'd be doing the whole. be wary of a road favorite on a Friday night, but this is not at Louisville.

This is at Miami, and Miami's had an open date. But how much does the Friday night aspect of it change your thought possible? It doesn't change it in this particular case, because Miami's had a week off. They do understand, I think, that this is the toughest game remaining on the schedule. I don't think Miami's players are going to turn on Louisville film

and be like, oh, we're going to crush these guys. They probably look at it and say, okay, this is a well-coached team. Jeff Brom knows what he's doing. They've got good players. We are going to have to get up for this game. And if they do that, I think they're going to cover the almost two touchdowns spread. Yeah, Andy, I hate to be the person that brings us back to this, but share the records.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Even though I went three and six last week. Yeah, so I went five and four last week. Looks like you went two and oh in the only two games you were on opposite ends off. Well, we both got hooked in the Alabama, Missouri game, which the Alabama was wide open. The Alabama spreads have been dead nuts on the last few weeks, and we'll get to that when we get to Alabama and Tennessee, but the spreads have been very sharp the last few weeks for Alabama.

Five and four for me last week. I am 35, 30, and one on the season. Your record on the season. We don't need to talk about it. It's below that. It's below 500. But Ari swears he's getting back. I had the best weekend of my actual of the year.

Well, why don't you start doing that? Because I'm not playing these ones. where we got to play more Northwestern games. I'm not picking those. I tell you what, because we do that when Tyler Shoemaker comes on, we give you some extra picks on Thursday. Ari's going to give you some extra picks throughout this week. We're going to add that to this.

He had his best weekend of the, he went two and one, I believe, in the best ones that he gave us last week. But he's like betting overs of Mac games and stuff and hitting those. But yeah, that doesn't count. We need to focus on these big games here. Let's get right back into Louisville, Andy. Yeah. So in my estimation or my viewpoint, and obviously that's constantly in flux, but there are three teams in the sport right now that seem to be at least a half a step to a full step better than all the other really good teams. And those three teams are Ohio State, Miami and Indiana. And you might, you know, still have some weird, you know, reflex when you hear Indiana come out of my mouth, but I think they've unequivocally proven through, you know, what they did on Saturday. They deserve to be in that statement.

Miami has looked really, really good. And I wonder if Miami is just built from an athletic standpoint a little bit deeper than anybody appreciated coming into the season. We don't need to go through how good Ruben Bain is and how Carson Beck is playing, but their lines of scrimmage, the homegrown talent, everything that Miami has done to build this roster seems to me to be really good in today's game.

And I just want to know from a personnel standpoint, Louisville's got some players. Like, let's not make any mistakes about that. But what does a team have to do to beat Miami? The thing that is so impressive to me about Miami is that I feel like they can exist in multiple types of games. They have the explosive playmakers to keep up in a shootout, and they have the offensive and defensive lines to exist in a low-scoring barn burner type game.

And I just, like, don't even know, like, what a Louisville win or, you know, whatever would look like, you know, and this is a big spread, so it doesn't have to be even close to a win for them to cover. But, like, I am really high on Miami. It took me a little bit longer than you to get there, but I'm there. Yeah, and that's the thing. They are built so much better than the line of scrimmage than almost every team in the country. I think Ohio State, Oregon, there's maybe a few teams that compare, but there just aren't many.

And there definitely aren't any in the ACC. Like the closest one in the ACC is probably Georgia Tech, and they're probably going to see them in Charlotte. Yeah, and the ACC standings are really interesting right now. Also, I don't think we're going to be picking any Georgia Tech games this week. We are picking Georgia Tech games. game this week. But between Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and Georgia Tech, you have a pretty interesting race. And I think it might come down to, you know, who has the most advantageous pass and, of course, the result of this one. It's going to come down to the result of this one and

the result of Georgia Tech Duke this week, which we are going to get to in a few minutes. I forgot about that. That's a really big game. Georgia Tech is an underdog against Duke. So it's probably the last time Georgia Tech will be an underdog. So basically what you're saying is I need to pull my head out of my ass yeah but but what this is probably saying with miami favored by 13 and a half in this game is probably this is the last time miami is going to be favored by fewer than two touchdowns this season so uh miami is is got to be on guard for letdowns which we saw that last year with miami and it killed them it got them knocked out of the playoff i imagine a lot of these players who were on that team will be on guard against that i i don't want to feel that way again obviously

to the coaching staff remembers that feeling. They don't want to feel that way again. So I like Miami here. I think Miami will cover Ari. Who are you taking? I also like Miami here. I like the two touchdown situation. And I want to push back a little bit on like the notion of letdown.

Because when you go back and you look at their losses last season. George, and Syracuse were good. Yeah. And, you know, Syracuse put up 42 points. Like I think they had letdowns against Virginia Tech and Cal. They just happened to win those games. got very lucky to win those guys.

Yeah, but they also, the reason why I wanted to push back on it isn't because the teams they lost to, I think, are pretty good. It's that when you have a defense that can't stop anybody, every game you're susceptible to losing. Right. And I don't think that's the case this year. So, you know, of course, the importance of coming out fired up in a pivotal SEC game, you know, standings-wise is, you know, the importance of that goes without saying.

But I think that the personnel in the way that they have fixed their defense, and that's the most impressive thing about this. There's a lot of things that you can say about Miami and, and, you know, how they've gotten back to this point. But the thing that is most impressive to me is how they were able to fix their defense or do it in a way that it went from completely awful to a strength in like one offseason. It is amazing how they've done that. And, you know, Transfer Portal is a miracle worker.

It's just you can do a lot of things if you use the Transfer Portal wisely, if you make good coaching hires, and that's what Miami has done. Okay, let us move on. We're going to jump into the SEC. This is a game where if you look at the helmets next to the number, you will have a visceral reaction to it. It will seem strange. It will seem this shouldn't be right. What does Vegas know that we don't?

It's not that, though. It's not. So LSU is a two and a half point favorite, or excuse me, LSU is a two and a half point underdog on the road against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is a favorite against LSU. That is a shocking line if you followed SEC football most of your life, but if you've watched the games this season, particularly if you watched LSU's last game against South Carolina, it shouldn't shock you at all.

No. LSU is such a fascinating team to me because they're 5 and 1, but it feels like they're 500 right now. And I don't know what it is. It doesn't feel exciting. And I know that losing to Ole Miss by 5 points is a loss that has aged pretty well. But doesn't it feel like things are dire

in Baton Rouge for whatever reason? And I just go back to watching the end of the South Carolina game where it felt like almost every play Garrett Nussmeyer is banged up, dinged up, some other thing happened to him, and he's shaking it off, he's limping around,

and I mean, he's a warrior. He's exactly who you'd want as your quarterback, is exactly who you'd want as your teammate. But I don't know how long this, can last because they're not playing that well offensively anyway. And if he's really hurt, and if he's getting more hurt with every play, eventually the dam's going to break. I mean, it's a fair statement to say that he is not performing for whatever reason, whether it be injury or just having a bad season or a combination of both, anywhere near

to the level of which we were expecting this year. Right. And like I am, and the reason why I brought up that it feels dire in Baton Rouge is because, like, I think the pain is coming. Like, it hasn't come yet. I think it's coming. And the LSU fans know it. That's the thing. If you, if you read the Bingle Tigers message board, if you, if you talk to an LSU fan, they know it. They're waiting for the piano to fall. They're not really enjoying these wins because, you know, LSU has only got one loss. Yeah. When the piano falls, it's supposed to be from out of nowhere and it's supposed to land on your head unexpectedly. I feel like LSU fans are looking at the piano and the

thread holding it up to the ceiling as like wilting away right now. And I don't know, this is an important three-game stretch. And I think you can make the case. This is the most important three-game stretch of L.S., Brian Kelly's tenure at LSU. Vanderbilt, Texas, A&M, and Alabama all in a row coming up. You're sitting at one loss right now. I feel like you probably have to win two for Brian Kelly to stay out of hot water. But like, if we learn anything from the James Franklin situation this week,

it's that expensive buyouts or buyouts that we perceive to be expensive, barn as expensive as we think when things aren't going right so there's the thing though if they go two and one in this thing we saw we saw Oklahoma on Saturday like they can make the playoff if they go two and one in this stretch absolutely so but if you're an underdog a on the road against vanderbilt in the first game your odds of going two and one are probably not very good mathematically by the way if you'd like to go to this game go to game time download the app use the code staples to get $20 off your first purchase terms apply of course this is a this is a pricey vandy game like vandy holm games usually don't cost this much to get into but if you want a good seat to this game

you're you're paying over 200 bucks so people are excited about this and obviously some you know a lot of this is lSU fans wanting to go to nashville and enjoy Nashville but a lot of this is vandy fans feeling like hey this is a chance for our team to be really good here so hit that one on the game time app or maybe you want to go to tuscaloosa watch tennessee play alabama see see if you can smell some cigar smoke on the third Saturday in October. That one's slightly more expensive. It's a tough ticket in Tuscaloosa. But game time, of course, has all the tickets,

whether they're tough or not. They got all of them. The price you see is the price you'll pay. Use the code Staples, $20 off your first purchase, terms apply, game time, swipe, tap, ticket, go. All right, let's talk Vandy. Because the last time we saw Vandy, they were giving up a Jam Miller touchdown

at the end of the Alabama game. and he played really well in the first half of that game they did not play as well as they wanted to in the second half Alabama took control winds up winning the game that doesn't mean vandy can't beat almost everybody else in the SEC yeah I feel like we all reverted back to vandy is good not great after that but as you zoom out and you start to you know accept the fact that Alabama may be one of the top four teams in the country and has proven so through the results since that Florida State loss, they played them down basically to one possession. Right. The line on that was very sharp, and Miller scoring the last touchdown let Alabama cover. But Vandy's a really, really good team, and they score. That's the thing.

Now, Alabama held them to 14, so, you know, you don't know LSU's defense is still very good as well. But this is the first game of a, or second game of a four-game stretch of Alabama, LSU, in Texas. So like Vanderbilt's got its work cut out for it. want if it wants to come out, um, you know, kind of semi alive after this. Like this is a really important game for them. And I feel like the Vanderbilt fans and the reason why that game time ticket price is so expensive is that they believe that they should win. Exactly. And they're a favorite. So, you know, I don't know where you're at with this. I don't know. I am fading LSU's offense. I am fading it hard. I'm going to. I think everybody's

doing that. Yeah. I think I, I think almost everybody, including the LSU fans are doing that. And we've said this a lot this year. I think it's kind of the theme of the season when someone tells you who you are, believe them. And I think the LSU offense has told us who it is. Yeah, because I really do think that LSU can put up 24, 28 points in this game. And that might be enough. But their offense is going to have to work really, really hard to get that. And I think Vanderbilt can score.

Well, and that's the thing. LSU's defense is very good. Can Diego Pavia put up enough against LSU's defense? Alabama's defense is hard, too. So what will that look like? I mean, that's the thing. Alabama's defense is quite good. They were in a position to win that game.

He turned the ball over twice inside Alabama territory. This is what Cole Kublich warned us about going into it. If he doesn't turn the ball over. Yeah, one of them was in the red zone, wasn't it? Yeah. Or at least on the end of the zone. The fumble was in the red zone, yeah. So if he doesn't turn the ball over,

we're looking at a very different game in Tuscaloosa. If he doesn't turn the ball over on Saturday, I think Vandy wins this one. Yeah. So maybe this is all about LSU's defense enforcing turnovers and keeping Vanderbilt out of the end zone. But until I see LSU put together an offensive performance that inspires any sort of confidence, Andy,

it's really hard for me to get on board. I'm going to lay the points here. I also am going to take Vandy to cover. It's one of those things that when I, looked at the line. My initial visceral reaction is, what? And then I thought about it more. It's like, yeah, okay, it makes sense. So, yeah, I'll take vanity cover here. Let us move to another game where the line might have shook you a little bit. Georgia Tech at Duke. Now, this opened with Duke as a two and a half point favorite. As we pick here on Monday, Duke is now a three-point favorite.

This is another one where if you've been watching Duke play recently, if you turn them off after the Tulane game and we're like, well, they're not going to be that good this season. No, they've come around. Duke has been very good the last few weeks. And this is the toughest game left on Georgia Tech's schedule.

If Georgia Tech wins this one, there's a very high chance that Georgia Tech winds up being 8-0 in the ACC and makes the ACC championship game. so Duke stands in the way of that and Duke has been Duke has been very good this this once ACC play started important to note too that both of their losses are outside of ACC play so they still right Duke Duke can go undefeated in the ACC and if you look at the rest of their schedule if they win this one they would have they have to win at Clemson which would be tougher but and they have

Virginia uh they give Virginia at home but yes they have Clemson of Virginia so it's a tougher road than what Georgia Tech has left, but it's not impossible. And if you have the head-to-head winning against Georgia Tech, you might be able to lose a game and still make it. So this is going to be a really fun game. Darien Mensa has come around for Duke. You know, after the Illinois game, after Tulane game, we're like, ah, I don't know. Are they getting what they're paying for? They are getting what they're paying for now, Ari. The last two games, he's over, he had, He completed 77% of his passes against Syracuse, 73% of his passes at Cal, very efficient. All of a sudden, this looks like a team that can beat anybody.

Yeah, and you're seeing that in the number. Andy, the thing that we doubted in the offseason was the ability for the ACC to get two teams in the CFP at the end of the year. And I wonder if we're a Georgia Tech win away in this game. Now, of course, you know, upsets happen. weird things happen. I mean, in fairness, you can't get through this segment without at least acknowledging that Wake Forest should have probably beat them. Oh, definitely should have beaten them. Yes, definitely should be in Georgia Tech had a pretty thrilling comeback to beat them 3029. But if Georgia Tech wins this game on the road at Duke

and then beats Syracuse, NC State, Boston College Pitt, they might be a one-lossed team going into the ACC championship game undefeated in conference play. If they play, you know, just hypothetically, Miami pretty close in that game and lose as a two-loss ACC team, like Georgia Tech still find a way to get in. Because they might be compared to like a 10-and-2 Notre Dame, they might be compared to 9 and 3.

Georgia Tech probably has to beat Georgia for that to happen. Right. So, you know, that rivalry game is a real Oh, yeah. No, absolutely. The driver in the plans there. Yeah, because that does change things.

Like, if Georgia Tech has a win against Georgia, and they're 10 and 2, they're in. Well, they'll be 10 and 1 if that happens. That's true. Yeah, yeah. But even if they lost the ACC championship game at 11 and 2, they're in. There would be no question about that. But it feels like if you are a fan of a SEC team that's in that second tier middle of the pack,

or if you're a Notre Dame fan, like you should be rooting pretty hard for Duke this weekend, I would think. Yes, because Duke, because they have the two non-conference losses, even if they make the ACC championship game, it is a good chance that they they can't get in. Right. So, I mean, you just want bid thieves to be out of the way, but I think Georgia Tech is like a legitimate bid thief type scenario. I don't know. Are you a bid thief if you go 11 and 1 in the regular season?

A bid thief in the sense of like, you know, that might be one less oldness in there or something. Yeah. I mean, I think that people thought that SMU and Indiana were bid thieves last year. They earned it. But, you know, I'm trying to make this as college basketball e-terms. It helps people understand. That's true. All right.

So who you got in this game? Georgia Tech. I'm going to go with my dog, Haines King, the number one dog. We are going to do the dog rankings at some point. I think Diego Pavia has a chance to really come forward in the dog rankings. Are the last two games that we picked basically going to determine who's the dog on dog? Well, they're not playing. Trinidad Shambliss is in the next game. That's a dog too. Will Hammond at Texas Tech, the backup quarterback. That's a dog.

Georgia Tech wins and Vanderbilt loses or vice versa, the winner of those games gets the number one dog. Ty Simpson's a dog too Even if he's the Heism Favorite he's still a dog Okay this is going to be somewhat offensive And I'm sorry about that But I think of What's Haynes King's like NFL draft thought

Do people, is he an NFL player He's probably he will probably make a roster He'll make a roster but he's not somebody That's going to be taken If you are like Ty Simpson might be a first round pick You're true So like I take away He was a five star quarterback

I just take a away. I guess that's true. I don't know. The way I viewed. Ari, he was a five star. It never goes away. I didn't even remember that. Was he? I didn't even. Yeah, he was a, he was a high or high four star. He's a very highly recruited quarterback when he signed a sex today. I will tell you this. You get more points in the dog rankings from me if you're not a first round pick. Okay. Like if you were just a gritty college. So Ty Simpson is, is just too good of a player? Yeah, he's out. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, are you going to like, Ty Simpson's traits are too good. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, because that's not what I think when I think a dog. I think a scrappy, like in the, you know, it will bite your face off even if he's not as big as you.

Ty Simpson will bite your face off or fourth down. I know, but Ty Simpson is the bigger dog who would eat the little dog. All right. All right. So you're taking Georgia Tech. Yes. I also am taking Georgia Tech. And I feel like we're walking into a trap there.

I think Vegas probably knows what they're doing here. Yeah. But I'm also going to take Georgia Tech. Mostly because I love the chaos it would create. If you were starting a college football program and you had to pick a quarterback and you could only pick between Dary and Metsa and Haines King, who are you picking? Dary and Mentsa. Really? Yeah.

Yeah. Yes. Terry. You didn't even hesitate there. Yeah. I caught a pass from Haines King. I appreciate that. I'm glad he threw it to me.

But, yeah, I'll take Dary and Mentson. Okay. Now, see, there's a little. But I'm taking Georgia Tech to win this game against Dary and Minson. Yeah. Okay. Because I believe in Haines King. I believe in Brent.

key i believe in in the the lines of scrimmage at georgia tech okay and let me rephrase it i just have to rephrase it one more way because i was kind of surprised at how quickly you snap called that question um if you had to pick one of those two to win a single game who would you pick ooh haineskin and that right there is the explanation of the dog ranking okay next game all right let's go to iowa city it's electric we talked a lot about James Franklin obviously You can go watch that video You can listen to that podcast

Penn State without James Franklin Heads to Iowa Iowa is a three and a half point favorite In this game The total on this one's 38.5 a half, Ari That feels like the easiest under in America Penn State will obviously be starting a new quarterback

Drew Aller is out for the season So I don't know what that necessarily means But Ethan Grok Myers is the new quarterback at Penn State The question I have, Ari, Andy Codalnicki, we know, is a very creative offensive coordinator. We've seen that throughout his career. When you went to Penn State working for James Franklin, did that make you more conservative? And now that James Franklin's not running the show anymore, the guy's been fired for less than 24 hours. Let the guy, no, I'm kidding.

No, no, I mean, but does Andy Codalnicki get in his bag now? Like, does he come out just crazy? Because who's going to stop him? Here's what I will say. If that's a pretty common theory, right, amongst Penn State fans, that they weren't creative in offense because James Franklin liked to do things a certain way. If there's like a UCLA bounce back, like after this, that would be really, really bad. Yeah, I mean, I don't know, like, I don't know what Terry Smith, the interim coach is going to do, like to rain.

If any Codal Nicky's like, we're going to let our freak flag fly this week, what's Terry Smith going to do to stop him? Yeah. But if they're letting their. their freak flag fly turns into an offensive, you know, onslaught without their quarterback and their coach, that would be a really rough look. Not that it matters. It doesn't matter.

Yeah, I mean, we're going to have Tim Skipper on tomorrow. It's a pretty rough look for Deshaun Foster and Tino Sincerey, but that's, that's what happened. Yeah, but the difference with this one is, is that like Penn State actually feels like it still has the roster

to do it. Like that, it's too late now, right? It's too late for them to make the playoff. Yeah. Like, even if they went out, they probably are out. They're out. Ohio State, Indiana. They're 0 and 3 in Big 10 play.

They're out. Yeah. So you got nothing to lose, Nittany Lions. Nothing to lose. I don't, I think that they're 95% out. I don't think it's 100.

I think they're 100% out. I think if they beat Ohio State and Indiana and back to back weeks, they might be really, I mean, I don't know. It doesn't matter. We're getting into our skis here. But like,

or he's just like, wait a second. That's never going to happen. I'm just if they find out a way to have quality wins and they're being compared to other nine and three teams in the SEC, they might have an argument. Listen, given what we've seen with UCLA, which part of that is part of the Penn State story, it's entirely possible that you remove the head coach from the equation and the product on the field changes. I don't know that removing Drew Aller from the equation changes the product.

I think it's probably going to be about the same. But here's the thing that you have to acknowledge. For them to lose to Northwestern, even if things weren't. going well that is a level of right of toxicity that means you yeah and you you got physically beat by players that are let's be really inferior inferior to your roster iowa's players are better than northwesterns players they're probably as well coached or better coached than northwesterns players we just saw iowa dominate wisconsin now that's probably not saying much but i think Beating 37, your rival, 37-0, yeah, is a pretty, pretty nice win for them.

It's a great win for them. So Iowa comes in with supreme confidence, they're not going to show any mercy. Oh, no. This is not a case where anybody's going to show any mercy. So, Ari, I'm taking the Hawkeyes. Me too. Me too. I don't know that I see.

I was a three-and-a-half point favorite, by the way. I don't know if I mentioned that for our podcast listeners. So Iowa, I was a three-and-a-half point favorite. 38.5. More importantly, we got an Iowa total that I feel like needs to be addressed. And what's the total? 38.5. Oh, boy.

Under. The Iowa total in the Wisconsin game was 37. And don't ask me why I know that. So you were just rooting for a sad field goal the entire time? No, no. I mean, I was actually on the under. You were on the under. Okay.

But yeah, like that was actually lucky to hit because. Yeah. It was actually 30. They scored a touchdown late, but that could have gone over pretty easily. The total was 38.5. I bet it goes down as the week goes on. So this is the time to get out on the under. I think Penn State is broken in a way that isn't like a dead cap-bound scenario.

Like UCLA was embarrassingly bad at the beginning, but they also weren't expected to be playing worse than their roster. Yeah. And now they're playing at the level of their roster. And I wonder if Penn State can return to playing at the level of their roster. Because if they can, then they're still a very good team. Like, from a personnel standpoint, but I think that there's probably a level of apathy and a level of... But this is a game, if they'd beaten Northwestern by two touchdowns, I still would maybe pick Iowa to beat them in this spot. Yeah, maybe so.

So I guess if like the only calling card or the saving grace for Penn State this year is Andy Kodlnecki turning into, you know, one of the most savage play callers who's going to just return this game. game into just a huge Iowa City grab-ass fest. I don't know. Like, I don't see that happening. I think that Penn State needs to take a year, lick its wounds and try to rebuild with whoever they end up hiring here in the next few months. Yeah. We'll see what happens,

but it's going to be fascinating to watch. Might be not so exciting to watch, but it will be fascinating to watch. And I will take the under as well. That's my bonus pick for the week is the under on that one. I know what you're saying, Andy. Daring, picking an Iowa under. But I don't know.

I exploded for 37 points last week. So I think I am actually going out of a limb here. Ari, we got to head to Athens, Georgia next. But if you're heading to Athens, Georgia, and you're going to tailgate before that game, you know where you need to head first? Academy Sports and Outdoors. Huddly up football fans.

Tailgate season is here, and nobody gets SEC fans ready for game day like Academy Sports and Outdoors. Swing by your local academy store or shop online at academy.com to find grills, jerseys, and more. fun can't lose and neither can you with tailgate gear from Academy Academy Sports and Outdoors is the official

sporting goods and outdoor retailer of the SEC I'm a tailgate for those who don't know Ari is giving his first quarterback club speech on Tuesday I'm kind of nervous It's going to be in Gainesville Florida Gainesville quarterback club so it's one I've spoken to quite a few times

Do you want to tell them about our cute little Monday night we've got lined up here? Yeah so I have to take Ari to the mall we're flying back into Tampa to drive to Gainesville I flew out of Tampa on Saturday so I was like all right we're going to fly back into Tampa Ari said I don't have anything to wear for this thing I don't I don't know even know how to dress for one of these and so we're going to go to the mall and a little shopping trip but I think we might have to hit Academy because I want to I need a grill I want a tailgate for this thing

like I want a tailgate for your speech I'm super excited to get heckled by my partner oh you will oh you will so yeah I'm going to academy I'm going to get a cooler in a grill and then we're going to set up outside the venue and I'm going to do a little tailgate and I'll make sure to get the crowd nice and lubed up and ready to heckle you but I am also excited uh for because I'm going to get my grill at academy Andy I need a grill out here you do um bad I don't have a grill and I feel like I'm not a good cook but being a being a good grill let's be real you're not even a man without a grill I know but yeah right barely a man um but if you're not a good cook you can still be a good griller I feel absolutely 100% you can grill I want to I want to make meat for my family you know what that means right it's like the way that meat's supposed to feel there you go the only reason why I know that is because I've seen you do that a lot go to academy sports and outdoors or academy dot com and load up for this tailgate season Ari let's go to Athens Georgia Ole Miss headed to Georgia Georgia says six and a half point favorite in this game all miss coming off its worst outing of the season but is still a undefeated. They won their clunker, as our friends, Dan and Ty would call it from the solid verbal. They did beat Washington State. They barely beat Washington State. They play the way they did on Saturday in Oxford. They will lose badly in this game. Why is it that I suspect they will not play anything like they played in Oxford? Yeah, is the whole Lane Kiffin

calling card is the head scratching performances are always against teams that aren't as good as them. And also coming off an open date. Like the Florida game last year was like that too. But also has Lane Kiffin's entire reputation as a coach kind of shifted from the last three years from somebody who never wins the big game to somebody who always brings it in the big game? I don't know about it always brings it, but he did crush Georgia last year. We were there. And they physically dominated him up front. Now, I don't know if Ole Miss is as good on the line of scrimmage. Well, I do not.

They're not as talented. Like from a draft standpoint, they're not as talented on the lines of scrimmage as they were last season when they just abused Georgia up front. but i don't think they're that much worse and i don't think george is any better so i am very excited to see this game i think this is going to be a close game it really probably comes down to how well trinidad shambliss plays because it looks like he's the guy you know i we'll see with austin like austin sims is still there but i think they've they've kind of declared that the trinidad shamblis is the guy as as long as he's healthy yeah So I would have thought the spread would have been somewhere in the three range.

Did this seem a little bit big to you, which is you, I'm going to take the points. And I just wanted to say it before you so they know we're not rigging it. But are we on the same side of everything. Yeah, we are. I think. God, we're going to get smoke this weekend. But it seems like a little bit big. It seems a lot big.

And look, the Georgia that dominated the second half against Auburn, you know what? play a full game like that and they win this game. But I haven't seen Georgia play a full game like that yet. Georgia plays a full game like that. How many points is Ole Miss score? Ole Miss scores like 17. It's like a 20 to 17, 24 to 17 type game. Yeah.

If Georgia plays its best defensive game, I still think Ole Miss scores 20 points. So that means that if you want to take the points here, or if you want to lay the points that you need Georgia to get four. touchdowns in this game and i don't know if that's something that i would feel comfortable like i'm not saying they can't right they're not they're not an offensive wagon this year also olmiss can force some turnovers yeah and georgia's actually been pretty good with the ball they've they've been pretty safe with the ball yeah so i don't know producer river just please make sure

everybody calls their timeouts right yeah uh curvy smart gas let the officials into in the believing that he didn't call time out he definitely called time well then he also in his post game news conference said that he was trying to like insinuate that the the other team was clapping which is a penalty but like when they they were shown they were I saw a clip of him explaining it in his post game news conference and then like side by side at the same time of what he was doing and he was definitely trying to call time out yeah there's like it's not even remotely you know if you want to quibble about whether or not Jackson Arnold scored? Like, go ahead. If you haven't seen this week's SEC shorts, it's tremendous because they have the person playing the SEC

supervisor of officials explaining everything. And every time he says what appears to be the truth, the person playing Kirby Smart just waves their hand and Jedi mind tricks him into doing something else. So it's like, no, no, no, no, never mind. It is amazing what you can do when you've got a couple national titles under your belt. Because what other coach in America could convince the officials that you didn't call time out when you clearly called time out? Yeah, that's a lot of bullets flying out there. It's war out there, you know?

I don't know. Yeah, he was, there was no, I mean, who claps like that? Don't answer it. What do you think Lane Kiff, Lane Kiffin has to address this this week? Like, Lane Kiffin is going to troll him about this at some point this week. And I do enjoy that. I enjoy the troll aspects of it. As far as what Ole Miss has to do to win this game,

I think if they play the way they played against LSU, which was sloppy but fairly dominant, I think they're in this game. If they play a less sloppy version of the LSU game where they don't commit as many penalties and they don't turn it over in the red zone, they win the game. This is not a,

this is not the last time LSU or the last time old miss went to Georgia that last time old miss played in Athens was a in in 2023 and it was the one game it might have only been a half that it was the healthiest that Georgia had Brock Bowers and lad McConkey at the same time and it was embarrassing for Ole Miss yeah they got dominated they like they scored a couple early and then Georgia just throttled them yeah and it was that was that was was the game where Lane Kiffin stood up afterward and said, we have to get better on the lines of scrimmage, or we will never win a game like this.

Yeah. This is a, these are the games now where, you know, it's the fork and the road games. Right. This is going to tell you which of these teams is going to play for the SEC championship or have a chance to play for the SEC championship.

Because if Ole Miss wins this, Georgia is probably not, because they're going to be six and two at that point. Yeah. With losses to teams that probably... But if Georgia wins, then all of a sudden we're mocked up. in the middle of a conference rate. Also, Georgia, you know, that assumes Georgia wins the rest of

its conference games, which is not a guarantee because they still have to play Florida, Mississippi State, Texas after this one. So I just, I'm fascinated by this. If you're going to give me that many points, though, Ari, I am going to take Ole Miss. Yeah, I'm taking Ole as well. We're going to get killed this week. We are. That's okay. We got to disagree on something at some point. Listen, just so you know, like the listener, this is a tool. We don't have to be good at it. Yeah, you don't have to bad at it. Like, you can fade. But here's the problem. Like, if you look at my season record, if you followed me all season, you've made money. And if you follow you all season, you don't make money. But what if what happens when we're the same? I don't know what

happened. I'm in a blender right now. We're probably going to go 500. I don't know. I'm in a complete blender right now just as I was when I saw the line for this game. Because when we played guess the line, I think I said Georgia by three and a half, and here it is at Georgia by six and a half. So it makes no sense, but perhaps Vegas knows more than we do because this is a Vegas knows more than we do week, or at least it feels that way. Yeah, the SEC standings here, I'm looking, there are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten teams in the SEC that either have one loss or no losses in the SEC play.

AM, Ole Miss, and Alabama are the only unbeaten teams in SEC play, and you're going to start seeing these one-lost teams playing the undefeated teams, and if the one-lost team start beating the undefeated teams, we're going to have a mess like we had last year. It feels like it's almost like a certainty that that's going to happen at some point. Okay, well, it's going to happen.

But yeah, Georgia needs to win this to stay on track to play for the SEC championship, have a chance to potentially avenge that loss against Alabama. The only unranked teams in the moment in the SEC are Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky. And I would argue that Florida or Auburn can beat you on the wrong week.

In South Carolina, too, probably. Yeah, Georgia learned that last week. I mean, like, the first half version of Auburn can beat in. Yep. Second half version, not so much. But, yeah, this is, this is going to be a... I mean, Florida's already proven it. This is going to be a great game.

I'm so excited for this because it's not going to be last year's game. I really don't think this is going to be. be a blow out in either direction. I think this is going to be a fun, tight game, one of those that we're just sweating it out there at the end. Yep. Ari, let's move to a few miles from your hometown. We're going to go to Tempe, Arizona. Texas Tech at Arizona State. Texas Tech is an 11.5 point favorite on the road. And the question we have to ask, we asked this about Texas Tech last week, but we can ask it again, since they, they, They have potential quarterback situation because Baron Morton went out with an injury again.

Will Hammond came in again, looked awesome again. But the question we need to ask, again, has Texas Tech completely separated itself from the rest of the Big 12th? Did you see the video that I sent you this morning of the coin? Yes, it's glorious. What's the spread of this game? 11.5. don't see that very often in games like this. Arizona State was the preseason favorite or one of the three preseason favorites to win the Big 12.

And is Sam Levitt playing in this one? Sam Levitt is quote unquote week to week. So maybe that's part of it. I mean, Jeff Simms starts this game. Texas Tech is going to cover 50. Yeah, yeah. So that's the thing. It doesn't matter who starts a quarterback for Texas Tech, whether it's Barron Morton or Will Hammond.

I actually think the offense is probably better with Will Hammond based on what we've seen. And what we've seen certainly seems to be the case. and like listen I don't know you know like Kiffin made a change making a change in critical seasons

might be what happens so Will Hammond plays and he plays I don't I'm not sure it even matters yeah at this point given their talent level I mean they're going to play BYU in a few weeks

which I think is going to be a pretty tough game for them but I don't know at this point and the way Texas tech's running the ball good Lord I mean, Cameron Dickey carried 21 times for 263 yards against Kansas.

If you do that, it doesn't matter who hands off to him. Yeah. So here's, I want to talk about feelings for a second. All right. It's always feelings ball with Ari. I love feelings ball. Does the general public want parity in your opinion? They claim to.

They claim to. Most college football, this is from my column, I want to read this real quick from today. Most college football fans will tell you they wanted to promote the idea of parity. They want and promote the idea of parity. But whenever a team that isn't a traditional power or hasn't had any recent success joins the national conversation, the entire country dismisses their validity. It happened with Indiana last year. It's happening with Texas Tech this year.

It happens with Texas A&M to a much lesser extent. It happens with others too. Why are we, as college football consumer, so unwilling to acknowledge that a team is good until they are as good as Ohio State. It blows my mind how people have the audacity to call Indiana frauds without acknowledging the unbelievable job that Kurt Signetti did in turning the Big Ten afterthought into a college football playoff contender two years in a row.

Do we want parody or not? And I read this, Andy, because I feel like Texas Tech is in that no man's land of no one's paying attention without acknowledging how good they actually are. I think we've done a pretty good job in this, you know, season looking at all the teams at wholesale value and not jumping to predetermined conclusions based on past success and previous notions of the helmet. Texas Tech has immeasurably better players than everybody else in the Big 12. And we know that the Big 12 is a very weird conference.

We have a coin. But you make it a lot less weird when you get better players. Texas Tech is beating teams and winning games that are supposed to be weird Big 12 games easily. This is like Ohio State. Early Urban Meyer era Ohio State when the rest of the Big Ten is like, but he's violating the gentleman's agreement. Yeah, it feels like Texas Tech is actually doing something that hasn't been done by any of the other teams in terms of the, in terms of the execution of getting good players. And you're seeing, you know, when they played Utah, we talked ourselves into, well, this is going to be a tough road game.

When they played Houston, they're playing an undefeated team in the state of Texas on the road. When they played Kansas, we know that Kansas is a plucky team that can put up points on the right day. 34, 10, 35, 11, 42, 17, quarterback injuries happened to Matthew. Yeah, and, well, the Texas Tech, Kansas game was, was twice Texas Tech just jumped all over them. Because they went up 21-0, then it's 21-17, and then Kansas never scores. The closest game that Texas Tech has played this year is a three-possession game. Yeah, four-possession game, I should say, sorry, not three, four.

They haven't sweat. Now, listen, it depends on what you feel like Arizona State, you know, lost to Utah. got blown out. But that's a, they didn't. Sam Levitt has to play in this game or there's no chance. Sam Levitt didn't play. So I don't know if you just like throw that out. Arizona State isn't having the year that people,

you know, thought or hoped that it would. Is Arizona State one of the teams that is athletically most equipped in the Big 12th to compete with Texas Tech? I think they, they're about as close as you can get. They're as close as you can get and it feels still like there's a huge gap. Yeah, because basically we're saying if Sam Levitt doesn't,

play forget about it if sam levin doesn't play they should just cancel the game that's mean is it true they're going to play the game no but what i said was it true i don't feel like arizona state has a chance if sam levin does not play so you know sometimes we can be mean on this podcast you you know how i feel about keny dilling him and what he's done there yeah but jeff sims is not going to win the game so i don't care who starts at quarterback for either team i will take texas tech to cover the 11 and a half i'm taking texas tech to cover the 11th. We're four of the same page. I actually think that Texas Tech might be, but it's because it's Texas Tech, we're not willing to take that leap of faith that they could

actually beat an elite team from another conference, but I think they could. We'll find out. It took them a lot longer to get to number seven in the country than anybody else. We're going to find out, but they're not going to be, well, anyway, we might not find out until January. I know, but I don't think they're going to be the 11 seed in the playoff. I think they're going to be closer to the top four. If they finish undefeated, they'll be a top four seats. Absolutely. 100%.

Okay. Okay. Let's go to Tuscalo. Let's do it. Let's do it to it, Lars. Third Saturday in October, Tennessee at Alabama. Alabama is an eight and a half point favorite. Tennessee comes in after surviving.

Bobby Petrino-led Arkansas. Alabama comes in after surviving a trip to Missouri. Alabama's win was much more impressive because Missouri is a much better team than Arkansas. But that said, this is the end of a complete slog for Alabama. Because I'm not sure South Carolina is on the same level as Georgia, Vandy, and Tennessee. They play South Carolina next week.

But this is this is the fourth game in a row that Alabama plays a team that either is a playoff contender-type team or good. And that is hard to do, no matter how good you are, no matter how talented you are, because the hits accumulate. Everything accumulates. So can Alabama get up and do it again? Because if they can, I mean, then I think we should be talking about them as national title contenders. I feel like this is legitimately the hardest game to really feel comfortable with this week. Because I still think that I'm relatively uncertain or it's unclear what Tennessee truly is. Because I think that we're getting a pretty good idea of what Alabama.

I think Tennessee has a good offense. I think Tennessee's defense is suspect. I think Josh Heiple, it's interesting because, Josh Hepple runs that old Art Bryles Baylor offense, and usually when coaches do that, they tend to be offense first, let the offense dictate the tempo. If the defense gives up a bunch of points, who cares? That's not really how Josh Hepple's played it. You know, if you look at last year, the Tim Banks-led defense was the show.

And Josh Heippel managed games to allow that defense to dominate and help them win games. I think he's managing games the same way now, but I don't think the defense is good. And I think to win, you may have to just let the offense rip. And this offense in particular can score on Alabama. I don't know if this defense can stop Alabama enough. But I think this offense can score to make it competitive. The defense is going to have to get some stops. But you may have to turn this into, you may have to let this be a shoot out, just like the Georgia game was, and hope that if you get a chance to make it, you know, that field goal you make it this time yeah and you you had a pretty interesting point when we were

talking about this in the in the recap show and in a video that we put on beyond three youtube channel yesterday but the importance of jam miller's health and whether or not he plays i think is going to be a huge difference and and caleb de boar said on monday that he is hopeful jam miller will be able to play uh he had a concussion the way that protocol works is is the quickest you can usually come back is in a week but so we'll see we'll see how it goes i mean that that's going to be on the SEC availability report when that first report comes out on Wednesday night where's he going to land? Yeah, maybe

we can have River pop up here and try to explain something to me, but I'm looking at the box score from the Arkansas game and I'm seeing that Chris Brazel and Mike Matthews combined for four receptions for 51 yards, that's not going to cut it. Yeah, I don't know. What am I, am I? Well, yeah, the receivers

Brazzell and Mike Matthews didn't play well, but look at Staley stats. Staley had a good day. Yeah, Brayland, Staley had six. catches for 129 but no i know but these are their two guys right john bishop was running the ball really well too yes yeah yeah so it that's one of those they were running the ball so well i don't know that you they're not going to run the ball like that against alabama so yeah they're going to need more from from the receivers i'm excited about this game too r because i don't think alabama's just

going to roll over tennessee i think this spread is really high yeah but again i'm I'm now in the mode where I have a hard time doubting Ty Simpson. Yeah, he's playing great. The Black Hoodie of Death, I'm sure we'll be back. Well, we can check the weather report in Tuscaloosa, but I don't, I actually don't think it matters. Why does it matter? If it was snowing, I think Kail and Boar will wear the Black Hoodie of Death at this point. You can just do the Bat, Black Hoodie of Death with a cute little puffer vest, you know?

Yeah. Okay, high 86, low 61 for this game. This is a night big range. Yeah, so we're probably looking at mid-70s. This is perfect hoodie weather. Yeah, I mean, it's a thin hoodie. it's not like it's well yeah and going down into the six this is this is ideal hoodie weather i don't know if that changes my pick for this game might it might actually change my pick for this game

my pick is the opposite or whatever you pick i don't know oh you want me to just go ahead and pick yeah i'm gonna make you pick you pick you first i'm winning i'm trying to fade you though my my odd is my pick is to fade you so if i go first i can't do that listen i was all set to take tennessee because i thought this is too many points yeah then i looked at the weather This is Black Hoodie of Death Weather. Okay. Give me Alabama to cover. All right.

I'll take Tennessee. Black hoodie of death weather. I took Tennessee when they played Georgia in real life, and that was a highly lucrative situation. So it was a good spread, too. Yeah. It's a sharp spread. Wow. Give me Tennessee.

I don't know. I think that there are so many factors in this game that, you know, outside of I don't know what Tennessee is, that like the thing that you started this off with is. Like, how many weeks in a row can Alabama play at the level they need to play? And let's be real here. If Wednesday night, that report pops up and it says Jim Miller's out, I'm going to really regret this pick. But if Jam Miller can play, and I definitely believe in Ty Simpson, and I definitely believe in the Black Hoodie of Death, I feel like that's enough. Those are enough factors to make me feel confident. Okay.

Let's see who's, we're on different sides, but I force that to happen. Tennessee hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 2003. You know in 2003 I went to my junior prom, but I was a sophomore because I was a stud in high school. Look at you. My dad gave me. Wait, so the junior girl asked you? Yeah.

Do you know what the saddest part is? I don't remember her name. She was great, if I remember correctly. And then my dad gave me my sex talk on the way to that. And you want to know what it was? Don't get anybody pregnant. He said, if you get anybody pregnant, I'm not taking care of it. And that's the only time we,

ever had a discussion about it. Do you think that's good parenting? I love your dad, so I don't want to say anything. It's also true, though, that he would have taken care of it. We know. Oh, 100%. Your dad is a gentle soul. He'd have been like, oh, that's my grandbaby.

Yeah. But that was the last time, that was the conversation I was having in the car with my father the last time Tennessee won in Tuscaloosa. So Tennessee hasn't won a Tuscalo or Gainesville since 2003. And I think, I think they're going to get one of those. I just don't think this is the one. Yeah. you know it's the SEC you know what the thing about the sport though Andy just when you think

you haven't figured out that's when the curve balls come you know like this sort of just when you think yeah we know what Alabama is like is Alabama completely out of the woods from shitting its pants on national television like like that's like I think they are like okay because I think even if they lose this one they could go run the table the rest of the way like having a a mulligan in your pocket would be nice if they win this one but if you look at the rest of the schedule, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn. I agree with you. So this is a hard schedule, but it's possible that Alabama gets those the last four SEC opponents on their complete downslope. But I also think that right now,

head-to-head Alabama is better considerably than all four of those teams. Alabama should win all the rest of the games. All the rest of their games, they should win. They're favored in all of them. Now, that's not what I'm saying, though. What I'm asking you is, do you think that they still have duds in them? I think they might have that out of the system. I think that the Florida State game might have woken them up to the point that they're not going to do that again, which all of the concern over Kalin DeBoer after the Florida State game was this looks like the duds that you guys put up last year. And if you're going to put up four more duds this year, then it's over. Like, we can't have that. But if that's it, if that's the only dudge you're going to get, like I don't care if they lose this game by one point, by two points.

Like that's not going to, that's not going to fade my confidence. and it's in Alabama's ability to be a playoff team. I still think they could win the rest of their games, even if they were to lose this game by a point or two. It's if they get blown out. But I just don't see that. This team does not seem to be built that way. This team seems to be built in a way.

And maybe it's Ty Simpson. And again, we don't need to relitigate last year, but why wasn't he playing last year? If this is what you had. I don't know, but he's been great. And Andy, we were in the press box watching it at the Red River rivalry. and we were looking at each other, given that face of like, wow, this guy's impressive. So we'll see what happens.

I'm not confident in either side, obviously, as I picked, that was kind of a grab-ass pick, but I really don't know. Shall we go to the next one? Let's go to South Bend, Indiana. Touchdown, Jesus will be looking down as USC plays Notre Dame in a game that feels completely different than it felt a week ago. Because when USC was coming off, it's lost in Illinois, I was looking at that. and looking at the final drive of the game for Illinois, where they needed to move the ball,

they ran it right down to USC's throat, they kick a game-winning field goal, it's like, okay, there's nothing to change. This is what USC is, and Notre Dame is just going to trounce them. But then USC plays Michigan, which is kind of a Notre Dame light. And USC ran all over Michigan.

USC imposed its will on both sides of the line of scrimmage, held Michigan's running game in check. That's how you beat. Notre Dame too. If you can do that, you can go to Notre Dame and win. That was, in my opinion, the single

most important win of the Lincoln Riley era. I would agree with that last weekend. And I hate USC is a drug that I cannot quit. And I try to pretend like I'm out. And I try to pretend like I'm out. I've been

as critical of USC as any program in the last two years. You know that. If USC can operate in a game the way that they did against Michigan while also bringing elite level skill talent to that equation which they have. Yep. They could be really, really good.

Yeah. There's still a possibility that this USC team finishes as a Big Ten also ran. They get beat up by Notre Dame. Like, that's all still on the table because the Michigan game is just one game. well i think notre dame is considerably better than right right and even like losing to nondon conversely does not mean that you can't go back into the big 10 and be competitive against the rest of your schedule in the big 10 i think that there's a look about it i think that there's a look about it

the way that u s.c lost to illinois was disgusting yeah and like i can't you know they're forgiven because of what they did to michigan but the thing that illinois does is is something that i think Notre Dame probably will do better. So are you able to, I mean, like, look at the spread of this, Andy. This isn't like they beat Michigan also. No. I think we're going to find out that Michigan's not a very good team. I also think we're going to find out that Notre Dame's defense is not that great.

So this could be another Notre Dame Texas A&M game, which, remember. I'm happy you said that because I love the over of the game. That turned on a missed extra point. Yeah. I love the over of this game. I think both teams are going to score. Give me two possessions, Andy. Give me two possessions.

I'm going to take USC. I took USC last week. It was one of the ones I was right about. USC minus two and a half against Michigan. I'm going to ride the wave. I'm going to stay with USC on this. So I was going to do that too. Because the eight and a half was what scared me.

I also think it's possible that Notre Dame is significantly better. And that we are as, I don't think Vegas is doing this, but I think we as as human beings are looking at their two losses and saying, you know what, they're just not, they're not that good. But they kind of are that good. No, they're really good. Jeremiah Smith and Judarian Price are great. Who?

Jeremiah Smith. Jeremy I love. Engineering Price. Jeremiah Smith is also very good. Jeremiah Smith is great, but he plays receiver for Ohio State. Jeremiah, I love plays running back for Notre Dame. So I think it's possible that Notre Dame. just is better.

And so look at USC, I think the key number to look for, like if you want USC to be competitive in this game and you want USC to win this game, if they can hold Notre Dame under four yards of carry, that is the path to being competitive in this game. And it's just not easy to do. And like to do that,

you're talking about playing, you know, kind of the way Miami played. And are you as good as Miami? Probably not. So Miami held him under four. They were 3.3. Texas A&M held them under four.

NC State also held them under four, though. So it's not impossible. I think Notre Dame's going to score a lot. I do. And I think that USC is going to score a lot. I keep talking about Notre Dame like they're a triple option team. Like CJ Carr is a good quarterback and they can throw the ball. And also has been completely left out of the conversation of emerging stars

because Notre Dame has two early losses. I think that people have lost track of Notre Dame because that's what happens when you lose early in the season and then you fly under the radar for two months and the next thing you know you reemerge in the playoff discussion. Like that's what's actually happening right now. I think USC is going to give up a ton of points because I think Notre Dame can score.

I think that USC is going to score enough to not lose by two possessions. But let's talk about this. Let's game this out. Because if USC is good enough to win this game, they knock Notre Dame out of the playoff. And this Notre Dame season becomes a failure. Yeah. Like this is another part of the situation,

like the back against the wall aspect of this. We saw it in the Texas Oklahoma game that we were at on Saturday. Texas played like the team that couldn't lose. Notre Dame is the team that can't lose. Like, USC can actually lose this game and make the playoff. They can. It's not easy. but they can do it.

Yeah. No, but I think that the thing about USC is that this is a transitional year kind of, right? Like nobody came into the season thinking USC was going to go win the national title this year. No. But what we did come into the season hoping to see was a improvement in the areas that were causing them to fail in the past. And I think that we've seen, like, there's no better display of improvement in those areas than what happened on the second. The Michigan game was, was that proof of course.

concept of that improvement if u s goes out and beats notre dame on the road oh then there then it goes from are they in the are they headed in the right direction to like have they arrived to are they a year ahead of schedule yes i agree and that and that's a pretty powerful thing to be excited about if you're a u sc fan oh yeah no and the thing is like if they play this game even competitively and lose i still don't like you don't sit there as a u sc fan and go oh man that's we're we're just right back where we were no no no if you're competitive in this game one way or the other lose or win you're on the right track thrown around like a rag doll that's all yeah exactly do not do not let them run through you like what did nick say even call it goat shit through a tin horn yes as long as you don't do

that which by the way is a farming reference that i don't understand at all i i i don't i think that's one of those like the the hobnail boot play the when when larry munson said that georgia step on Tennessee with a hobnail boot and broke their nose. Like, I don't think he knew what he was saying. I don't think Nick Saban knew what he was saying in that case either. But no, don't allow that to happen.

Now, I wish we can play that. I have the clip. Not right now. Yeah. Okay. We're talking, we're talking USC and Notre Dame. Can we go back a little bit to Notre Dame against Texas A&M, Mario Craver, and Casey Concepcion.

they did not handle that well. Texas A&M threw for 360 yards. Mackay-Lamin is better than either of those two guys. Yeah. Which is saying, those two guys are really good, but Mikey Lennon is one of the best receivers in the country. Yeah,

he's getting some Heisman buzz, you know. It's not like Jacoby Lane is a slacker either. And I think USC's done a good job using Lay McCree, the tight end as well this season two. So they've got some dudes that can torch you. Well, it's a better one-two punch probably than the A&M-1-2 punch, no? I don't know.

I would agree. I mean, the A&M-1-2 punch is really good. So we keep talking about what happens on the ground, which I do think will dictate the terms of this game. But really, what probably wins it for either team is how well their secondary plays and how well their pass-rush plays. Because if you can get the other quarterback on the ground, you've got a chance. both of these teams can beat you through the air. Both of these teams can turn this into a shootout. 62.5 is your total?

I feel great about the over there. Yeah, I like the over there, for sure. That's my favorite part of the game. But, yeah. So you're going to take USC and the over. Plus eight and a half and the over. I will take Notre Dame minus eight and a half in the over. The thing that scares me about the spread, Andy,

is that like it might just be like a two possession trap and then Notre Dame just goes out and wins. Well, the other problem with a game of the 62 and a half point total where you feel comfortable taking, more comfortable taking the over than you do betting on the spread. Backdoors open the entire time. The entire time. Like it doesn't matter. Like either way, the back doors open. So the spread is really tough because this feels like a definite shootout. Yeah, if it's 34 to 28 or 42 to 35. with five minutes left,

whether you cover the spread or not is going to be based on one possession at the end of the game. But yes, I'll take the points in a game that I think the points will be plentiful and hope for the best. All right. Don't make me look like a fool, USC.

Please, you've done that to me quite a bit over the last few years. Yeah, we should bet another steak dinner on this game. I'll pass. Damn it. All right. All right. We head to Provo, Utah, for the Holy War, which is a place

I've always wanted to go to see a game. I've never been. What? Big pizza buffet town. They love their pizza buffets and Provo. The pizza buffet is a lost art in this world. It should happen more off. They do it right. They do it right there. This is going to be a fun, fun game late at night. Last year, remember, BYU went in 8-0 and Utah was having a tough season. Utah was four and four at the time.

It's 22-21. Everybody was mad at the refs after this game they these programs hate each other so much this is one of the most spiteful hateful rivalries in college football i'd actually this in the egg bowl are the two most hateful rivalries i think yeah i think i think that uh hate and rivalries is a uh was what makes the sport great and i wish i could go experience this game in person one day like that's like it's on my bucket list because i i just don't i don't think it really matters who's better? And in fact, they're both good this year.

You know, BYU still undefeated after beating Arizona in a double over time the other night. Utah's five and one. They're one losses to Texas Tech. We talked about Texas Tech and how they've pretty much separated from the rest of the Big 12. So Utah is a three-point favorite on the road. I am, I'm not even going to pretend that I know who's going to win this game. Because between the two teams, the way they've played, and the circumstances of the rivalry,

there's no way to pick. No, there isn't. The one thing that you have to say is like, Kalani Sataki has a really good track record of winning really close muck-it-up games. Like, they, BYU just always seems to find a way. But Kyle Whittingham has a pretty good 20-year history of that himself. Yeah. I don't know, but I feel like BYU.

has done some like black magic the last two years even the way that they beat Arizona on Saturday night like just an overtime like they just they always find a way to get it done at the end I mean the thing is is do you believe that Utah is going to be able to run on BYU because if you force Devin Dampere to throw it he's just okay you know he's he's got 11 touchdown passes to three picks but he's not a super efficient passer he's a great runner so if they're running the ball it works but they're not running the ball and saw this in the Texas Tech game, nothing works. So, BYU, holding opponents to 3.1 yards per carry, you know, if you look at their last

couple games, Arizona had 4.8, which is why Arizona was in the game, why that game was so close. If they can hold them down, you know, into the threes, they're going to make life very difficult for Utah. Yeah. It's going to be a slog. You know, the thing that we have to be careful of, and it kind of goes back to the previous conversation that we had about Texas Tech is that we don't frame our opinions of what

Utah is based solely on what we saw against Texas Tech because BYU hasn't had to face that yet. And they've, the only other thing that Utah has done in the Big 12 since that game is beat West Virginia 48, 14 in Arizona State 42 to 10 on Saturday. I don't know. Again, you know, Sam Levin didn't play, but granted, 42 to 10 is 42 to 10. Yeah. This is a very difficult game. very difficult it's like do you who do you perceive to be the better team and then of all the throw the record games out this is probably i don't but see i i don't perceive either one to be better than the other i perceive them to be pretty both fairly equal uh bear bachmyer has been a good quarterback for b yu not a great quarterback yet l j martin's averaging six and a half yards a

carry that the thing is if b yu that it's almost the same thing like whoever whoever's able to run the here's the winning team. Yeah. And last year's game was in Salt Lake and it was decided by one point. And that was as BYU was advancing to 9 and 0 and they were doing the same thing they were doing this year, which is closing close games out with wins. Let's just, I'm going to, I'm going to lay the points. And I know, because I know you're going to take the points based on the way that you're talking. And I just want to get on a different side as you. And then we'll let their holy war and our holy war be the same thing. I was actually about to pick Utah, but fine. I'll pick BYU.

Were you? Give me BYU. I didn't see that coming with the way that you were talking. Yeah, no, I was about to pick Utah in this one, but I, I, I'm, in fact, I appreciate you pushing me there. Yeah, yeah. You know, I feel like we need to get some more friendly bets in the butt funnel thing fell through after the first game.

Thank you, LSU. So much. Thank you, LSU. I bought some rubber gloves on Amazon. I think we have to stop on and return them on the way to the airport. Okay. Like, it's, you know, this will be a good game. We don't know, you don't know, they don't.

know only god knows he's going to find out on saturday i feel like we can say that about a lot of games this week and and you know what that's the best part of it loaded show on tuesday we got ucla coach tim skipper will join us also what the hell happens next at places like wisconsin and florida and in the light of what happened at penn state with james franklin is anyone safe we'll talk to you tomorrow Hey