Andy & Ari On3 - College Football Week 9 PICKS | Ole Miss-Oklahoma, Missouri-Vanderbilt, Texas A&M-LSU, Michigan-Michigan State

Episode Date: October 20, 2025

It's time to pick the BIGGEST College Football games ahead of week 9, but first, Andy & Ari have to dive into the coaching situations as the ADS for both Florida State and Wisconsin released statements regarding their football programs. As Florida State is coming off the heels of a brutal loss to Stanford on the road, where do the Seminoles go from here? And what do they do with Luke Fickell in Wisconsin? Watch here as Andy & Ari dive into the situations in Tallahassee and Madison. (0:00) On Today’s Episode(1:06) BetMGM(2:50) Intro: Mike Norvell and Florida State news(11:43) Wisconsin’s Statement regarding Fickell(12:59) Comparing FSU & Wisconsin statements(19:07) Gametime(20:17) UCLA at #2 Indiana (-24.5)(27:55) #8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma (-4.5)(36:16) Academy Sports + Outdoors(37:44) Auburn at Arkansas (+1)(41:55) Alabama at South Carolina (+13.5)(47:18) PaniniAmerica.net(50:37) #15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt (-3)(56:02) #22 Texas at Mississippi State (+6.5)(1:01:52) #11 BYU at Iowa State (-2.5)(1:07:06) #3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU (+2.5)(1:16:48) #25 Michigan at Michigan State(1:26:38) Conclusion + Special Guest Tomorrow! After the news, Andy & Ari get into the Week 9 slate and pick the biggest games of the week! What are your favorite picks of the week? Let us know in the comments below! Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up!Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary.See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also brought to you by Gametime!Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Our show is sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoors! https://www.academy.com/discount We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. After the coaching situations, it's time to get into the picks. A loaded slate and Andy & Ari map out the entire weekend with their Week 9 picks here.Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/CWatch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/HRuHzWz91aYHosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River BaileyInterested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. It's a pick show. We got BetMGM lines and totals for you, and we got some big games. Missouri Vandy, huge playoff implication game? Absolutely. Does it feel weird with those logos? Yes, it does. We've also got really interesting one.

Auburn at Arkansas. Can Hugh Freeze save his job? Or will Bobby Petrino win his first as the Arkansas interim? We've got UCLA going to Indiana. We've talked a lot about the Bruins since Tim Skipper took over. Can they compete against one of the best teams in the country at night? Texas A&M, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State. A lot of drama, a lot of angst for the home teams in both those games.

We'll talk about that. Plus, a very interesting statement from Florida State Athletic Director Michael Alford, regarding head coach Mike Norvell on Monday. We'll talk about it all on ADRI on 3. We are presented by BedMGM. We use BedMGM lines and totals, and you can join us by joining BedMGM. If you have not signed up for BedMGM yet,

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rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for Bed-MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ryan 3rd. by Bet MGM. It's Monday, which means it's a pick show, and we got a lot of games to pick. We got UCLA, Indiana. We've got Missouri Vanderbilt. We've got Texas A&M at LSU. We've got Michigan at Michigan State. A lot to talk about this week, Ari. But we have to start in Tallahassee because Sunday was a crazy day.

Florida fired Billy Napier, but that almost wasn't the biggest news in the state because Florida State started having serious discussions about the future of Mike Norvell and how serious? Like, they were thinking about paying that enormous, gigantic, huge, bongous buyout. And the conversations continued through the day. And then on Monday morning, you get this statement from athletic director Michael Alford. Florida State football benefits from unmatched passionate support. for the entire SSU family, and the commitment to our football program is unwavering. We rightfully have high expectations in everything we do to represent Florida State in the manner

that built our reputation as one of college football's best programs, cultivating an extraordinary group of supporters nationally and globally. We embrace those expectations while also sharing the deep disappointment when results on the field are short of that standard. As we continue to move forward this season, our comprehensive assessment of the football program will be completed at season's end. Meanwhile, we're fully committed to helping Coach Norville in the 2025 Seminels strongly rebound in the coming weeks. This is coming off of 2013 loss at Stanford.

Can you translate that to English for me? He's fired at the end of the year. That is what it sounds like. That's like we're not firing him today, but don't worry, it's coming. Yeah, and I know that you are familiar with the buyout terms and stuff. Like, is there money to be saved by keeping them on, or do you give him, or is this a chance to maybe, win somebody back? This is not particularly any money to be saved.

It's an expensive buyout on December 1st, according to our Pete Nacos and Pete and I went back and forth over the contract this morning just to try to check our math. $58.4 million, not doing any lump sum or anything. It would be due over the course of the remainder of his contract, which I believe is another seven years. And there is mitigation, which means if he, he gets another job, the amount he gets paid at the new job comes off the total. So just like James Franklin's was at Penn State.

So it's not like if Mike Norvell, let's say Mike Norville got fired, Ryan Silverfield at Memphis, who replaced Mike Norvelle at Memphis, Ryan Silverfield goes and becomes the Arkansas coach or something. If Memphis were to hire Mike Norvel for $3.5 million a year, that comes off the total. Yeah, which is, you know, a nice help in that math. and like that doesn't exist with Brian Kelly's, which I think is going to play a factor there potentially. So that's good to know.

You know, the thing that is interesting to me, Andy, always about Florida State is the one conversation that I always want to drag you into, which is, is it a sustainable model for Florida State's coach to be as reliant on the portal as Florida State has traditionally been under Mike Norville or is a program that isn't recruiting as high as it traditionally has in the state of Florida, from the get-go. And they had one really good year. But the thing about that is, is that that's not even the conversation right now. The conversation isn't, can you sustain a national championship contender year over here? The conversation is, how do you get to a point where you go two and ten? And then your response the following year is to lose to Stanford. Like the lows are the thing here. It's not reaching. Right. This team beat Alabama this year, which feels like a million years ago, by the way. James Franklin had lows this year, obviously. But James franklin's or the impatience with james franklin was always predicated on not being able to get over the hump

this was new for franklin this year but florida states is how could we be this bad in so many bad spots like and that's a completely different thing and i wonder if those go hand in hand if you're reliant on the portal you might you know strike it big and go undefeated to win the acc one year and then the following year when you lose all the players that helps you get there and you don't replace them properly that you could be terrible. I get that. But I just feel like, you know, as we watch the Stanford game while we were doing the show on Saturday night and then after the show was completed, like it feels like there's something rotten. It's not just players. Like they clearly have good enough. I mean, they beat the crap out of Alabama. There's something underneath the surface that's rotten and

you're trying to figure out what that. It's just not working. And I don't know that there's anything that this group can do to make it work. What's complicated is they spent a bunch of money to buy out the coordinators last year and then they hire new coordinators and they're going to have to spend a bunch of money to buy them out to you look at the rest of the schedule wake forest at clemson virginia tech nc state at florida all of these games a team that beat alabama at the beginning of the season should actually go five and oh the rest of the way i mean every single week that we get removed from that alabama game the more i just feel like alabama didn't show up ready to play and And that was just a fluke.

Like, you know, for the way the game looked while you were watching it, it didn't feel fluky because Florida State was energized. They were playing well. The offense was designed really well. And Alabama got caught, you know, off guard. But, like, maybe that was just Alabama laying a complete egg right out of the gate. And that's all that was. It also may have been no tape on this offense, no idea what it was going to look like

with Tommy Castellanos running Gus Malazan's offense. And then by the time they started playing real games again, because remember they played East Texas. A&M in Kent State after that. So at Virginia was their next real game. Well, guess what? You had tape on that offense. You could study it.

You could figure out what its tendencies were. And nobody's fooled now. And that's how you put up 13 points against Stanford. And I realize, yeah, he was probably in on that last drive. That probably was a touchdown. It doesn't matter. You shouldn't be in a tight game with this Stanford team at this point in the season. It's just not building.

possibly Mississippi State. Billy Napier beat Mississippi State. That didn't really matter. The outcome of the game didn't matter. The game mattered. The game told you, right. The Florida Mississippi State game told you all you needed to know about Billy Napier. And whether that play was called a touchdown or not, and if it had been, maybe Florida State wins in overtime, it still would have told you what you need to know about Florida State at this point in Mike Norville's tenure.

Right. So, you know, I think that it's going to be interesting to track which teams are more likely to part with coaches who are owed north of $50 million. I think that Florida State's situation and LSU situation are vastly different based on what you just said about the mitigating, the clause about mitigation. If he gets fired at Florida State, it doesn't matter if he gets another job. You still have to pay him all that money. It gets far to LSU, you mean, but yes. I mean, LSU, excuse me, yes. But yeah, and I think of that math there, over a five to seven year period, three and a half million, even if he gets a G5 job, it's still $20, $25 million off the top, which then makes it a more manageable buyout that other programs are paying.

Especially because it goes so many years into the future. This is not like the Mark Stoops buyout, we keep talking about at Kentucky. If they were to do it, it's $37 million immediately. within 30 days. That's totally different than being able to pay it out over a period of six to seven years. And then also if he goes to Memphis

just in a just making up the scenario and then goes 12 and oh in his first year and then gets a job at North Carolina then that still it's not just three and a half million. Then he's making six and a half million and all of a sudden it's a really manageable life. It's like that mitigation gets better. So, you know,

I think that the schools that have the mitigation clause in them are probably more likely to act on the moves than I would say a team that owes Mark Stoops that much money right up front or LSU. But, you know, with the way things are going this year, nothing would surprise me in terms of what a school is willing to be. Yeah, we got another statement from another embattled program on Monday, and that was from Wisconsin. So the athletic director Chris McIntosh put out a statement, and it's different.

It's very different from the Michael Alford statement. So the floor state fans will appreciate the differences when I read this. The gist of this one, I'll read the part that matters here, is while our coaches, staff and student athletes continue to demonstrate the work ethic and values that represent UW football, the results simply are not what any of us want them to be. Coach Fickle sees the potential in what this team can be, as do I, and he shares the same disappointment of frustration. Our student athletes continue to stand and fight with character and pride as they battle through this moment of adversity, and they deserve our support. While we still have a lot of football

to play this season, with the support and significant involvement of Chancellor Manukin, athletics is committed to elevating the investment in our football program to position us to compete at the highest level. As a department, we must provide our coaches the tools necessary to succeed. That means more athletics-funded investments into infrastructure, staffing, and most importantly, student-athlete recruiting and retention. In this new era of collegiate athletics, the clear reality is that high expectations must be matched with an equal level of support. The results of this elevated support may not be immediate, but we are confident that the impact will be positive and long term. That is a very different statement than the one Michael

Alford put out. Michael Offord put out a statement saying, we're evaluating and our evaluation is going to be done at the end of the year. And the difference is Florida State has been supporting the football program and has been supporting its roster construction at a level commensurate with teams that expect to win and expect to compete for titles. already. They didn't need to change that. They were already doing that. Mike Norville was getting what he needed. He's just not giving them the results. Now, we can argue about whether Luke Fickle's gotten what he needed, but this strikes me more as Chris McIntosh, the AD at Wisconsin saying, please don't fire me as well, because you may realize that this is probably my fault. So if Luke

Fickle was on the stand in a criminal investigation and he hired a good attorney, he would use that statement to make Wisconsin culpable, though. I thought that there was kind of an admission of... They didn't give Luke Fickle what he needed. And like, you wouldn't expect that from the other side of this. But I wonder, and I don't know if I'm just like, you know, it's Monday and I'm not thinking clearly after a long weekend, but like, did you get even a hint of it's possible

that Wisconsin might keep him out of that? Yeah, I did. I definitely did, and that's a, that's, I want to keep him. But it also means probably if we keep him, it means I get to stay. Like, I'm going to keep him, or they can fire me and the next person can fire fickle. Yeah, I mean, because of the question too, and, you know, I know that finances are a little bit more complicated and I don't work at Deloitte, but what's a better use of funds if you're Wisconsin to pay, an enormous buyout to Luke Fickle or to try to use some of the money that you would have otherwise spent on that buyout to allocate towards retention, NIL, and all those different

things. It's like if you don't think that you've been giving them a lot. I think what they've shown is so bad that you're not going to get what you are. And if they've got no good players, because they don't have the money for good players, that's a completely different discussion. True. Florida State has the money for good players. Yeah. And they do have some good players. Like there are NFL players on Florida State's team. Are there, NFL players on Wisconsin? Not really. I can't think of one that I know for sure is going in the draft.

Yeah. But Florida State has those guys. And I think that's why those statements are so different. Because Florida State has done all that stuff. Like Mike Norville can't come out and say they didn't support me the way they needed to support me. He got what he needed. It's similar to Billy Napier. Like Billy Napier can't make that excuse at Florida.

He got the support he needed. He just didn't come through. on it. And that's the same thing Mike Norvell is experiencing right now. And it's, it's really strange and sad because this is a team that they won the ACC, they're 13 and 0, they get snubbed for the 14th playoff, and it feels like something just broke at that point. And they may never get it back. And it might not mean Mike Norvel is never going to be a good coach again. Like I would, I would love to see Mike Norvel in a different environment because I don't think he's forgotten how to coach. I really don't, but something's off there. Yeah, do you think that there's

anything to that? Like, I did everything right. I did everything in my power to achieve a goal, didn't lose a game, got to the finish line, and then wasn't awarded that that like permeates a program. Like, do you think there's something to that? Maybe, but it's so weird because, again, what's one of our main criticisms of Mike Norville's program, it's too transient that he doesn't recruit well enough at high school. Which means that that wasn't stick around. Yeah, that shouldn't be bothering anybody now so it's like you know Andy you're six three right you probably was I've shrunk I'm old you're six two uh I'll give you six two and a half just because I'm a good guy okay thank you you probably need 2,500 calories a day to maintain your weight if I had to guess I'm not

looking at my calculator but let's just say you worked out six days a week and you ate 1,900 calories um and at the end of the road you know you didn't lose any weight after six months of doing that 1900 calories a day, calorie deficit, working out all the time really hard. Then at the end of the road, when you get on the scale, you feel better, you feel good about the progress that you made and all that. You get on the scale and you haven't lost a pound. You might go to McDonald's after that. Like, I can understand, like, that is kind of what happened to Florida State. But I don't think Martin Norville quit.

I really don't. I just, I don't know what it is. It's sad that it's come to this, but it has come to this. and there's nothing I take away from that statement that it would make me feel any better if I was Mike Norville. We'll see what happens the rest of the way. I mean, maybe they do win the rest of their games

and the tone changes, but I don't like the way things are going. Yeah, I mean, I guess if they, I mean, the thing that you can say, though, is that there was a chance or it felt like there was a chance that Mike Norvell would be fired on Sunday. That didn't happen. It seems like he's not dead man walking yet.

Like, if they can turn it around and win five to the last six games or whatever and show some life and finish eight and because like going into the year that's the thing that's so funny to me about offseason discussion and then in season discussion. At the beginning of the year if you would have said they were going to go eight and four seven and five you'd probably been like and he can survive

that. That's improvement. You feel pretty good about that. Yeah. But now seven and five does not feel like improvement. No. No. And because seven and five is going to mean you're going to lose one more game to a team that you probably shouldn't lose to because Clemson stinks this year too. So it's not like

Yeah. It's not like winning at Clemson would mean anything in this scenario. So, but like if Jake Dickr brings, you can lose any of those games that are left. If Jake Dickert brings Wake Forest down to Tallahassee and beats them on November 1st, I mean, we're probably having this discussion all over again. Maybe the evaluation doesn't go to the end of the year. Just saying, we'll find out, but it is a, it is a tough, tough situation in Tallahassee. Ari, we got to pick some games. This is going to be a lot of fun.

Before we pick some games, if you'd like to go to the game, we're about to pick why you can. Go to GameTime, download the GameTime Appardemic Code Staples. Get $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply, of course. We were about to pick the UCLA at Indiana game. I'm looking at Indiana tickets right now on game time.

It's like $150 for pretty good seats. That's one, it's a good deal to see one of college football's best teams. but too, Ari, how long do you think it's been since a ticket was in that much demand in Indiana? I'm sure this year and last year a little bit, but that's pretty unfamiliar territory that you got to pay triple digits for Indiana tickets. Meanwhile, you could also go to Texas A&M LSU. You can also get good seats at Tiger Stadium for about 150 bucks on game time right now. That is an incredible deal because there's some LSU fans willing to sell their tickets right now because they are not happy. go to game time, download the app, redeem the code Staples for $20 off your first purchase.

Terms apply, of course. Swipe, tat, ticket, go with game time. All right, Ari, UCLA, Indiana. We've talked quite a bit about both these teams in the past few weeks. Obviously, Indiana is a waggon. They are an excellent team, but they are favored by 24 and a half points in this game. They are heavily favored. And I think it's interesting.

So these two teams both just played Michigan State. Do you know what the score was in both of those games? Was it identical? It was identical. 3813? 3813, yeah. They both beat Michigan State by 25. Now, UCLA obviously, needed the field goal in the closing seconds to beat Maryland last week.

But we've seen Maryland just get heartbroken the last few weeks by, you know, against pretty good teams. You know, they lost to Washington, they lost to Nebraska. Same thing with UCLA. This is a long way of saying. I think UCLA is good enough to get within 24 and a half points of Indiana. Is Nico okay?

Nico came back in the game. Okay, so he's okay. I think he's, I think he's all right. I think he's going to play. Okay. And look, the way UCLA's been playing, I feel confident that they can be competitive against Indiana. I don't think they can win this game.

I think Indiana is too good. And I think Indiana, one of the great things about Kurt Signetti is he just does not lose the games he's not supposed to lose. So I think Indiana is going to win this game. But I really feel comfortable with all those points. Yeah, Indiana is. a really good team and a wagon this year, much like they were last year.

They didn't have blowouts in every game, though, like they did last year. And I wonder if that means anything or if playing at Iowa on the road. I mean, the Old Dominion game was one of those where Old Dominion was just probably better than they expected. And the Iowa game, I think Iowa's defense is just good.

Like Iowa City's a hard place to play. Yeah. thank you for for helping me become a little bit easier for me because like i'm laying points like i like disney movies and i like feel good stories and i love that rah rah like angels on the outfield like yeah i love that can't hold for me apache relay at the end of heavyweights like i love that stuff but i think that when you certain when you like reach a certain point in those stories um they don't always end the way they do in the disney movie And I wonder if, like, this is the end.

Ari's like, Indiana by 50. Indiana is really, really good, dude. And UCLA has shown some signs. And like, look, you can go and type in Nico Iamaliava into, like, Twitter right now. And they will, all you'll see is dimes. Like, he's playing at an extremely high level right now. And I do think there is power in being together and fighting for a similar cause. I do find it, like our editor wants me to resume doing the, how many teams are alive in the

college football playoff race still story. And I'm like, well, I mean, and I don't know if this is perception or not, but it seems like there's too many to do right now because like half the ACC is alive and UCLA is still alive. Like, I think that there's, there's something to UCLA is the only four lost team still alive, right? I think that everybody, I mean, everybody who's technically not mathematically eliminated is still alive. From our conference championship race. From our level, I think that UCLA is, like, UCLA is still alive in the same way that anybody who's not mathematically eliminated is still alive.

I don't actually think about it. But the thing is, like, the collection of wins UCLA would have if it somehow won out and made the Big Ten championship game, they would be a shoe in for the playoff. I think even if they lost the Big Ten champion, like they could get the playoff at eight and five. Yeah. Well, the fact that UCLA has a Northwestern loss on its resume kind of hurts them in the in the Big Ten race and they don't not control their own destiny. So, like, I think that their schedule certainly helps. But yeah, the fact that they play Indiana and Ohio State and then they finish the year at the, you know, in their rivalry game at USC, I think is enough.

Like, if they go undefeated against this, I mean, I think that they would make a play off. It's never going to happen, by the way, but it's fun to talk about. I'm saying, like, what I'm saying, though, is that I understand, like, if you are in the UCLA locker room and things are going the way that they're going right now, why you would feel together, why you would feel empowered, why your head coach is somebody you would probably, as River put it, run through a brick wall for. That's what everybody puts it. You know, it's, but like, at a certain point, the personnel becomes the personnel again, right? Mm-hmm. So, especially because it's a team like this, a well-coached team with a bunch of NFL players on the road, starting to get. right like that does every that does everything right every game like shows off every game

listen we didn't talk about our records last week coming into it i went oh let's talk about our records last week like i am in fade me territory this year i'm having a terrible terrible year there's no getting around it like every week it's the same thing um and so i want to lay the points and maybe that's good for ucla i'm gonna lay the point yes so i was five and four last week. My record is now 40, 34, and one. Ari was two and seven, and his record is 28, 46, and one. So I have a winning better. I am a losing, losing loser better. Yeah. And this is one where we're not, it's not me fading Ari. There were a couple instances last week where I was sort of on the fence and I just faded Ari. I'm not fading Ari here because Ari picked Indiana to cover. I was

already going to pick UCLA to cover. I just think that is too many points. They've been too competitive. They've been too plucky. And so I will take UCLA to cover the 24 and a half. And I think UCLA's probably going to be a pretty, pretty heavy public play this week, too. I would think so. I would think so. But the public still, I'll be done with the public. The thing with Indiana, though, is even though they're very good, the public doesn't believe that yet. Like the Indiana Indiana has to go above and beyond the threshold of greatness

to prove to the public that they are that that good. Well, I feel like the books believe it now. Like this line is a representation that the books understand what Indiana is now. And I don't know that they did all of last year or even beginning of this year. I think the general public will look

at it though and go, whoa, 24 and a half points. Holy shit, that's a lot of points. And Indiana is not that good. But But look, if this was Deshawn Foster, UCLA, I'd be taking Indiana to cover here, too. But I'm not doing that because I think they're different now. Really hard to quantify, too, like how powerful Tim Skipper's message is right now. Like, obviously, you've seen a program do a complete 180.

There's no question. They're a completely different program than they were. And maybe that'll manifest into an awesome Disney movie. I don't know. But I'm just going to go with the better team at home. I'm going to lay a bunch of points, and I'm going to expect Kurt Signetti to do what he. he's been doing since he got there, which is blowout their opponent.

All right. Let us move to Norman, Oklahoma. Ole Miss coming off a loss at Georgia, goes to Oklahoma, which is coming off a win at South Carolina. Oklahoma is a four and a half point favorite in this game, Ari. The winner of this game is in really, really good shape relative to the college football playoff, especially if it's Ole Miss because their schedule is much easier the rest of the way than Oklahoma's.

If Oklahoma were to lose this game, you could be fairly certain. they're going to drop another one and not make the college football playoff. If Ole Miss were to drop this game, they still might make the college football playoff. So Oklahoma in the more dire situation, but I don't know that you're not, those teams are not going into that thinking that way. I think they're both looking at this as an absolute must win. Yeah, I think that you and I are probably going to end up on the opposite side of this one, too, again, because I'm going to do the weird thing.

Just based on circumstance and understanding of what these teams are, like I think the general thought process is that Ole Miss is better. No? People will think that Ole Miss is better. I mean, Vegas doesn't. I know, Vegas. I don't know that you necessarily think that you...

I think if you watched Ole Miss's defense against Georgia last week, you have a lot of serious questions about Ole Miss. If you walked around Nashville, the same day that the Tennessee Titans did their schedule release where they asked random women, the logos are, and you found college football people wearing SEC belts and khaki shorts and the school that they went to is polos.

And you asked them, hey, who's better this year, Ole Miss or Oklahoma? I think 85% of people would say Ole Miss. I can buy that. I can buy that. But this to me is a really interesting spot. I'm laying the points just so you know. going to lay the points here i'm going to i'm going to go oklahoma on this because i think that

their defense is something special i think it's very good but why wasn't it special against texas like that's the thing this is what's messing me up with oklahoma like which version are we going to get the one that went to south carolina last week and and rec shop or the one that we saw up in person in dallas that looked very average like so they've seen oklahoma twice in person i saw them against auburn they looked awesome in person against auburn but if that version that played against Texas shows up, Ole Miss is going to roll them. Yeah, there's no question.

That's a correct thought process. I was there with you. I watched it. They stunk in Dallas. And I don't know what, I mean, the fact that Oklahoma even lost to that Texas team is also just kind of mind-boggling to me.

They got their ass kicked by that Texas team. That's the part I can't figure out because I want to know if that game's just the anomaly. And what we've seen the rest of the season is, is the real Oklahoma? or is that in them and can come out at the worst possible time? Like, that's the part I can't figure out. Well, here's the thing that I like about the game. Oklahoma gave up 300 yards of offense to a team that didn't even get to 200 yards of offense against Kentucky on the road on Saturday.

By the way, Texas stink. Like, I'm putting it out there. I don't know if you. We got to pick their game later. You can talk about that. But they scored 23 points. And any time a team can score 23 points. game. I don't care how many yards they put up or how much you perceive them to get their

ass kick. Like, Oklahoma should win that game. I think 23 points a game is a reasonable ask for any defense against any SEC opponent. Like, if the ask in this game is to hold Ole Miss to 14 points, they're going to lose. What I'm saying is, oh, miss's offense is a lot better than Texas's offense. Like, it is. They're going to give up more points to Ole Miss than they probably gave it. Now, look, Texas had a punt return for a touchdown, too. So that wasn't, that wasn't all on Oklahoma's defense. Right. I think that Oklahoma will give up more points to Ole Miss than they gave up to Texas.

I don't think, I think their defense will, especially because it was really only 16 points they gave up. Yeah. I think that they'll probably give up 24 points to 28 points. I think Oklahoma's offense, which was also inept against Texas, let's not, you know, Texas's defense is very good. but Oklahoma's offense stunk. I'm going to chalk that up as John Mateer rushed it back, wasn't ready to play, rivalry game, weird things happened. He definitely looked better on Saturday.

He definitely looked better on Saturday. I think Oklahoma has a chance to score one point more. Five points more, I should say, than over. You need five points, buddy. I like Oklahoma to win the game. Four and a half is a tricky line. That's a lot of points to lay in a game like this. I like Oklahoma in this game.

might be stupid. I picked them to make the playoff before the year started. That might end up being really, really stupid. I'm not coming off of it. I think that Oklahoma is laying the points. I think a lot of people are going to take the points. I think you're going to take the points. And I think Oklahoma is going to show people that they're still a pretty good team, a really good team this year. So I have no problem with you picking Oklahoma here to win. No problem. I have no idea who's going to win this game. And because I have no idea who's going to win this game, because it feels very evenly matched to me because Ole Miss is going to score on Oklahoma's defense, but if Ole Miss's defensive performance against Georgia is any indication,

Oklahoma is going to score on Ole Miss's defense, too. You know, Mateer and company are going to have some success against that defense, unless something changes dramatically from last week. I don't know who's going to win this game. It feels very evenly matched. It feels like a game where turnovers could make a huge difference. And for that reason, I'm going to take the team he's getting points. that's really all there is to it.

If Oklahoma were getting four and a half, I'd be taking them. So that's, if I feel like it's a pickum, I'm just going to take the team that's getting points. And that's why I'm taking Ole Miss's card. I also think, too, that Ole Miss is basically playing in like a CFP playing game right now. If you go and look at Ole Miss's schedule moving forward, it's pretty advantageous. Unless I'm forgetting somebody, Andy, let me pull it up real quick. A river, you can put it up faster than me. Yeah, South Carolina Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State.

Like, if they win this game, there's no real reason to think they would lose more than one more. They would go three and one at worst the rest of the way. So, you know, if they go in and get this win in Norman, they're probably going to be in a pretty hard spot to not make the playoff. Though, as I pointed out to River before the show, there are a lot of bid thieves this year, especially now that Miami lost on Friday night and might run the table and then not play in the ACC championship, that might be two or three ACC teams because they just don't play each other.

They don't play each other. There's going to be a lot of teams that might get stacked head-to-head resume-wise that might keep teams like that on the fringe. But I think 10 and 2 Ole Miss is in no matter what, certainly one loss of Ole Miss is in no matter what. And 10 and 2 Oklahoma is in no matter what. nine and three Oklahoma against this schedule has a chance. Ten and two, Oklahoma is in over ten and two

Ole Miss a hundred times out of a hundred. So like that. Oklahoma is in over almost everybody else. Right. Ole Miss would have a harder time. Like they would be more scrutinized at the end of the process. But anyway, they're playing in a really important game for their postseason hopes. It's on the road. People at Oklahoma are going to be fired up. I'll lay the points. It's a difficult game. All we do is pick difficult games.

give me Oklahoma and we'll see what happens. I am very excited about this. Very excited to watch this game because of the circumstances and because I just don't know who's better. And I love that. And I feel like that's what the SEC's been giving us. And the SEC will tout that as its depth. Fans of Big Ten teams will tout that as the SEC all stinking.

I don't know what it winds up being. I'm fascinated to see how this wins up. So, yeah, give me Ole Miss to cover. Not necessarily to win, but to cover. All right, Ari. I thought you might take Ole Miss straight up, to be honest. Nah, I'm not that confident. And it's just, it's too hard.

There's just too much, too much variability here. Because Ole Miss, the defense, if it's the same as the Georgia game, Oklahoma is going to score a bunch of points. I'm confident in Ole Miss to be able to score, even though Oklahoma's defense is good. All right, let's talk about our friends at Academy Sports. At Academy Sports and Outdoors, we proudly honor our brave military and first responders

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you know how much i love academy are you know you need a cooler you need a grill you need a jersey you need some shoes your kid forgot their mouthpiece before before a game academy sports and outdoors. Go to academy.com if you can't get there in store. And if you are in the military or a first responder, go to academy.com slash discount. Ari, let us move along, down the schedule. Stay in the SEC. One state over from where we just were. Auburn goes to Arkansas. This is a fascinating game. So the line has moved a little bit more on this. It's now Auburn minus one. So Auburn is favored by one in this game at Arkansas. Hugh Freeze is in trouble. Auburn's lost its first four SEC games. They lost in overtime to Missouri.

Hugh Freeze kept his job this weekend. Whether he keeps it after next weekend, probably depends on what happens in Fayetteville. Meanwhile, Bobby Petrino is the interim coach at Arkansas. He would like the full-time job. The Razorbacks have played better since he took over for Sam Pitman. They lost by three at Tennessee. They lost by three to Texas A&M. Auburn is not as good as Texas A&M or Tennessee. Does this mean Bobby Petrino breaks through? Was it just like the hot seat bowl? I guess one's not on the hot seat. One's in the prove it bowl, but it's an opportunity for Bobby Petrino for sure. Yeah, Bobby Petrino's kind of on the hot seat when you think about it. When or you're out, I mean, like it doesn't matter what the circumstances are.

You're the coach now and you won't be the coach. next year if you keep losing. Auburn looks like they are allergic to winning games right now. Yes. I think that's a fair statement. And that makes it really difficult because I think Auburn, I think Auburn's better, right? Auburn's better, right?

Yes. Yes, Auburn is better than Arkansas. Yes, should be. Auburn has a more talented roster than Arkansas. I don't know that I'd say Auburn's better than Arkansas right now. Auburn and Arkansas are losing games in kind of similar ways here. It's starting to feel like it felt last year, not starting, it has felt that Auburn is the best bad team in the country. Yes, which they also were last year.

And this is an incredibly hard game to pick because on one hand, you know, old RE wants to go with the team with better players. but Bobby Petrino can draw up an offense. They're scoring on people. They were competitive, highly competitive against A&M, a team that has cracked the top four, I believe, for the first time since 1995. It's not going to be an easy game for Auburn. There are no easy games for Auburn.

Bobby Petrino is fighting for his life. Hugh Fries is fighting for his life. Let me let you go first this time. I don't know. This is a hard game. Patrino breaks through, give me the hogs. I'll take the one point. It's fine.

Yeah. If Auburn loses this game, is Hugh Freeze fired? Possibly. Or maybe not. Maybe they wait. It's just going to be a long time. I don't like his chances to be in their next season,

but there's a chance depending on how it goes down that it could, this could be it. I'll take Auburn. I'll take the better players and see if they can figure out how to win a game. Are you just fading me? No. Okay. I mean, I was the first, it sounds like you're fading me.

It sounds like you wanted to see what I did. No, I think I'll take Auburn. I was going to take Auburn. All right. All right. Okay. That was the first time of today that I picked second. So how can I be fading you?

We were fading. Also, you faded me last week. Who cares if I'm fading you? I'm just laughing because I wouldn't fade me. I would fade you. Have you ever heard the term regression to the mean? I mean, unless you think you're going to go 65% Have you ever heard the term you just keep losing every week?

I know. That's what I'm saying, regression to the mean. No, maybe this is, see, I think you might be in Mike Norville circumstances right now. I mean, listen, you can throw haymakers. Four states should get better eventually. Yeah. No, it's, I'm having a rough year.

There's no question. And then you lose to Stanford. Okay. There's no excuses here. Let us go to Williams Rice Stadium, Alabama at South Carolina. the Crimson Tide have rolled through what I thought was going to be a brutally difficult stretch of season. They went 4-0, road wins at Georgia and Missouri, home wins against Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Really impressive.

They're playing like one of the best teams in the country right now. They're playing like a team that can win the national title. Meanwhile, South Carolina, it's getting depressing in Columbia. The game cocks look terrible. This looked like a trap game at the time. the beginning of the season, it does not look like that anymore. No, big spread, too. Alabama's favored by 13 and a half on the road.

I'm not going to fade you in this game. I'm going to fade depression. I don't think depression is a good... You just want good vibes to come back to Columbia. I understand. I do understand that I contradicted myself, too, because I picked against good vibes in the UCLA game. So you want the Disney movie, here you want the Disney movie, but there you didn't. Well, well, there was good vibes.

vibes in both sides of the UCLA game. Like, there was no bad, I didn't pick bad vibes yet. The only bad vibe game I picked, uh, is Auburn. They've got awful vibes, but like, as Arkansas's vibes, like is everybody, I mean, they haven't won yet under their interim coach. So their vibes aren't good. In a game of good vibe, bad vibe, I'm just going to go with the good vibes. Uh, you know, I don't know.

I've, I've been kind of waiting for Alabama's, uh, gontlet of games. They just got through to, you know, show up in a game. I've been kind of waiting for them to kind of, you know, regress a little bit and have a rough outing because it's just hard to get up every week

and Caitlin DeBoer has shown during his first two years at Alabama that they're prone to that. You have already said that you're past thinking about that.

I'm certainly not. But I just don't know what South Carolina can do from a competitive standpoint. Like, I mean, like they always have

Lenora Sellers and he always could just turn into Superman, which he did against them last year, didn't he? He played really well against him last year. I just, I feel like it's just kind of like the bathtub plug got unplugged. Oh, by the way, our bathtub plug is broken.

I don't know how to fix it. So can I FaceTime you after this and will you help me? Absolutely. I don't know if it's easier if I should call a plumber. Yeah, we'll have to take a look at that. You've got to be very careful with the plumbing issues because if you get them wrong, things can get nasty soon. It's just the thing that stops the water from going down. Oh, then you're going to, we'll be fine.

We'll get it figured out. But there's a spring. Anytime I see a spring, I get Nancy. So the bathtub of water kind of draining right now in South Carolina. It is. Dylan Stewart went out of the Oklahoma game early. Shane Beamer said on Sunday night that he's hopeful that he'll be back, but didn't give any firm details.

They need Dylan Stewart to play in this game. I'm still not sure it matters. I just think Ty Simpson's been awesome that the way he's playing. right now in the way Alabama as a whole is playing right now. Maybe they have a game where they don't show up. But this is one where I feel like they could not show up and still win.

Yeah. For sure. I think they don't show up. That would be a little different. Yeah. I'm not worried about them winning. I think they're going to. But I also wonder if they just,

you know, had that happen to them against Florida State, got buried for a few weeks and realize we're never going to, we're never going to let that happen again. And possible people have to. ability to adjust, adapt, and change their ways. There's no question. Yeah.

So I'm going to take Alabama to cover here. I'm with you. I don't, I don't, yeah, I don't think it's changing. I think Alabama is, is really good right now. And I look at the rest of their schedule. I think they're in good shape. Now, we'll see what Oklahoma looks like. What will Oklahoma be on November 15th?

Because that may be their toughest remaining game. I'm really not worried about them against LSU, so yeah, I think Al-Dem is in great shape. Yeah, the thing that I think is kind of happening right now and, you know, in terms of the SEC, is that like we are kind of on track for potential Alabama, Georgia, SEC championship game. Now, there is a little team. There's a matter of the Aggies that controls their own destiny. and A&M schedule, you know, they faded both of them. They didn't play either Alabama or Georgia this year, which is pretty good for them in their SEC championship race hopes.

If they lose maybe, I don't know, say a game in Baton Rouge this weekend, maybe that changes. But like Alabama, I don't know, like, there's a debate that needs to be had about does the SEC need Alabama and Georgia to be great for them to be respected at the same level nationally or can another team take that mantle? I thought Texas could. They're obviously not going to be doing that this year. But like, will people fear A&M if they come out of the SEC the same way that Alabama and Georgia are feared? Could Ole Miss be feared that way? That doesn't matter anymore. Nobody cares.

You're worried too much about feelings. I love feelings. It's my favorite thing of the sport. I know you do. Well, I'm picking Alabama to cover. It would be nothing. You're picking Alabama to cover. I want to talk about something you have very strong feelings about, and that is our friends at Panini.

Visit Panini America. Net to start your collection day. we are going to rip a pack right now. I've got a pack of the H2 Select from 2024. And we're looking for silver prisms. We're looking for disco prisms. Disco prisms. You know, Panini is a lot like a college football conference

in that there are high, high quality products that are super expensive and middle tier products and lower tier products. and lower tier products. The lower tier products come at the beginning of the year when the rookies are brand new and then as the year goes on, it gets more expensive gradually.

You're holding one of the top, you're holding like the Texas A&M of Pinnini in your hand right now. Like that's a pretty good product. And the right card and select, you know, needs to have a top loader ready. So I'm hoping for you.

I'm pulling for you. And let's see what you get. We got a Joe Alt, current charger, former Notre Dame offensive tackle. Joe Burrow. We'll be talking about one of his alma maters later. Romo Dunzee.

We have a Michael Pinnock's shiny discoy rookie. Yeah, I would get that in a top loader. That's a good card. Yeah, I need Michael Pinnock's to play better, but I'll take it. I like the way the Falcons are trending. Michael Pinnock is an expensive rookie. It's a rookie quarterback.

Not there, bud. Yeah. Andre Reid, all-time great Buffalo Bill, Ray Davis, current Buffalo Bill, and former player for the Vanderbilt Commodores played at Vandy and Kentucky in his college career. We're about to talk about Vanity, but I want you to go to Panini America Net to start your collection.

Ari, can you show us a couple of what you have? Yeah, I've got the Alabama or Georgia of Panini in my hand. I joined a break called Flawless. It's like $13,000. for the suitcase and it comes with a bunch of cards and some of them have precious gems in them. I got the Eagles and the

Giants. This is a Tiki Barber, flawless patch auto to five that I hit in that break. Flawless is the top tier most expensive pinini set. Here's one that you might like in an Eagles uniform, Michael Vick, Otto to 25 that I hit in that same break.

I was lucky in this break. And then lastly, the encased card that comes in that suitcase 215 AJ Brown flawless but if you'll see here Andy at the bottom underneath the flawless is a sapphire like they put precious

gems oh nice like that's like you know that's bougie Panini select though we love all kinds of Panini yeah the entire Panini like lower tier middle tier it just depends on you know what your temperament is but there's

something for everybody there I always get in trouble with Andy He's like, can you rip another pack, please? You're like, dude, that we need it for the show. And I'm like, can you just like, please just rip another one? Will you rip another? You have a million packs. Will you just rip one more?

No. We'll rip another pack later this week. All right, let us go to Nashville, Vanderbilt, hosting Missouri. Vanderbill is a three-point favorite in this game. We talked last week when the Vandy LSU line came out about how sharp the line. felt this feels like a sharp line again these two teams both trying to stay in contention for the college football playoff both of them have a path i'm not sure that the loser of this

game has a path without some really you know unlikely stuff happening so you got a win here who you got uh can i ask you a question before we pick the game of course is banderbilt going to move quickly to try to lock up their coach before he gets poached? I think all of the schools that have a coach that everybody might like is that they're all working on contract extensions, whether the coach signs them now

or waits and sees that they can juice a little more leverage is another story. Yeah. You know, if I'm Clark Lee, I'm looking at that CIG contract like, hey, buddy, what are we doing here? Like, you know, Drinkwitz is probably looking at it the same way. Both coaches in this game looking it like that.

Hey, Eli Drinkwitz, talk shit. Where's the visor? And what's the last one? Wins a lot of games? Scores points. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So it does sound like somebody I said would work at Florida, although Lane Kiffin also fits

that profile. We're not wearing the visor as much, Lane Kippen, but Eli Drinkwitz, dedicated visor wear. But Lane Kippen does wear a visor sometimes. Sometimes, yes. Yeah. That's why I said it to what I said. Does anybody wear? the visor that like Kirby Smart wears or that Eli

Drinkwitz wears in any other instance outside of coaching football or playing golf? Oh buddy you have not been around enough SEC towns in your life. Do a lot of people wear like visors in that shape like out? You're going to run to some bros at the bar in that visor. Now they're probably going to have it flipped upside down and backward but you're going to see them. Okay. I haven't worn a visor in public in my entire life. So I don't know if I can't pull off a visor. I am incapable of it. I am not a visor person. The purvey smart, Eli,

visor is shaped. The way the Spurrier's visor was shaped, it almost is shaped for football coaching. Yes, pretty much. Yeah. I'm not a visor guy. Clark Lee, not a visor guy, because obviously the sunburn would be a problem. That would be the hardest thing about not having hair. It would be like the sunscreen situation. I feel like getting up sunburn on the top of your head would be awful. Well, it's not so much because he'll go without a hat. He'll go just with the dome uncovered. But you just just don't want the visor sunburn if you're in his situation or the fyser tan um yeah okay let's go to the game vanderbilt's legitimately really good yes they are missou i still think the jury's out on

i think they're pretty good i i just don't know how like i don't know where they're at i thought they probably should have been able to beat auburn by more it shouldn't have been close like it was and they they had to squeak that out yeah but i also have a hard time with that too because Auburn can keep a lot of games close and they just can't win them. True. And they're talented. Auburn doesn't get blown out a lot, do they? Am I forgetting one?

No. But Vandy is a legitimate playoff contender at the moment and unfortunately for them have zero quality wins outside of the LSU win. Now that LSU win was convincing and I don't know if that'll be a quality win in a month, but for the time being it is. I think LSU is still going to win like eight games. So, like, depending on what we're talking about, the definition.

The quality rate discussion only matters in the final week of the playoff discussion. Missouri could be a nine-win team if you beat them. They could be a 10-win team if they beat you. Which is the next point I'm making, which is Vanderbilt's last five games are Missou, Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee. I believe that that Auburn game will be close because Auburn plays everybody close. This is a similar circumstance to all. Ole Miss and Oklahoma, only Vandy's in the position of Ole Miss and Missouri's in the position

of Oklahoma. Nailed it. I think that Vanderbilt needs this game more. I think Vanderbilt needs to win this game more. And they're at home. They're laying points. If they are a legitimate playoff team, you get this game. Fair enough. I would agree with that. And that's why I am going to pick Vanderbilt to cover here. I am also going to pick Vanderbilt to cover here. I watched and see I'm not fading you I watched the Mizzou game from start to finish and like Amad Hardy is a beast and I don't know if it was just they have a

it seemed like they had a hard time moving the ball but again and this is to your point earlier I know everybody's had a hard time moving the ball on Auburn everybody but I think it's hard to move the ball on Vandy too like Alabama had it took them a bit to get going against Vandy like it's not They did a pretty good job against Alabama offensively.

They were in that game, and they almost won that game. They did, yeah. Yeah, they only lost by three to Alabama. So he starts to the imagination. I think this is a legitimately good team. This is two really good teams playing. It's going to be fun. Let's go to two teams that we're not sure about.

Well, one has not been good. Needs to break through and win an SEC game. The other one, we saw them play their best game, and then they played a terrible game. that they survived last week. Texas goes to Mississippi State. Texas is a six and a half point favorite on the road. Okay, so this is a line that respects where these teams are at right now.

Like, this feels like a pretty sharp line. Because Texas, we don't know who's going to show up. Like, the team that played against Oklahoma did not look like the team that played against Kentucky or the team that played against Florida. Texas stinks. I love, you're just out, you're done. I don't think what did it happen in Dallas in front of our own naked eyes? I don't think Texas looks like the bar,

like the juggernaut you think they did. They weren't a juggernaut, but that Texas should be able to go to Starkville and win by 12. Yeah, but let's average them out now with the other Texases that we've seen this year. And then maybe they'll win by two. This is coming out of the wire in that case. And I'm just saying like, you know, if Texas's best game was the Oklahoma game this year, I walked out of the stadium at the Cotton Bowl

thinking Texas is going to lose multiple times still this year and I said that you can go watch and check tape in the Texas post-game reaction I said if that's who Texas is they are not out of the woods and then lo and behold they got out gained I think that like they got out gained

by almost twice as much by Kentucky on Saturday and like there was a lot happening so if you didn't lock in on this game you know talking to the audience here no shame I locked in on it for you. It was a disaster. Like, it's like, I don't know what, I'm like, I want to be nice. And like, Texas was my preseason national championship pick.

The thing that I thought was impossible, Andy, is actually literally happening. They are not good. So, like, and when I say not good, I mean, like, not good in the sense of like being compared to a team that I thought was going to win the national title this year. Five and two is fine. There are a lot of teams out there that would like to be five. and two and two and one in the SEC. I'm taking Mississippi State in this game.

I don't think Texas should be giving touchdowns to anybody. They can't score them. So, you know, maybe they'll come out and win 51 to 10 and it'll look like all is new. But like let that be the remarkable thing that they do. I'm not picking that to happen anymore. I'm completely out on Texas. So here's the thing. I saw Mississippi State with my own eyes this past weekend.

I was, you're not allowed to yell or get mad in the press box, but silently seething watching them play against Florida. which had the thinnest secondary known to man. Everybody was hurting the fourth secondary. They're playing dudes that had not even played all season. All they needed to do was throw deep to Brennan Thompson, basically every other play. Blake Chapin is not great at hitting the deep ball.

But even if he's a 20% hitting the deep ball, they would have beaten Florida by two touchdowns. Like the play calling, and I realize some of these were RPO, so the quarterback is deciding it on the, the field was mind-numbing. The fact that they threw the ball when all they had to do was run it twice and kick a field goal to win the game, mind-numbing. They're so close to finally winning an SEC game under Jeff Levy. They're talented enough to do this, but they have to play better

and smarter. And part of that is Jeff Levy. Like, Jeff Levy should have looked at Florida who they were playing on defense. And remember, he hits Brennan Thompson for like a 48-yard gain right out of the shoot. Brennan Thompson was open over and over and over again. If you've got a thing that's working, take advantage of it. The problem is Texas's defense is going to be better than what Flores was last week, given Florida's injuries. And that's not going to be available to you.

So guess what? Texas is going to cover this game. Give me Texas to cover. But yeah, next time, Jeff Lubby, when you've got something that's working, just use it. Have you ever had oral surgery? I had my wisdom teeth cut out. Well, how old were you? I was 17. Would you do it again or rewatch the Kentucky game? I was asleep for that, so I was actually a fairly pleasant experience. I don't know if I'd want to rewatch it. I'll take the oral surgery. Mississippi State's not a good team, but they are a talented

enough team at home to make Texas struggle. And until I see Texas do something, I'm not picking it. I'm just not. Yeah. And also the spread is six and a half for a reason. Yeah, I'm taking Texas

to cover. I just I don't have faith in either team is what I'm trying to tell you. So, give me the points. I don't know. I've had a bad year. Maybe this is what Texas needed. But like, it's been like bothering me because I've been the trumpeter of Texas propaganda the entire summer and like I was watching this game and I'm like I cannot believe Arch Manning

threw for I think 129 yards I think what was it 160 I don't know they had 179 total yards of offense and they got out gained by twice as much Kentucky put up 400 yards of offense on them it's not like I know they only scored 13 points but they were moving the ball the entire game Name a single-text offensive playmaker that's going to go do something for them. That's not Arch Manning. All right. Let us go now into the Big 12.

Get the coin out. You got the coin? I got the coin. This is from Jacob. Our Big 12, three and a half point corn. This is not a three-and-a-half point spread. BYU at Iowa State. Iowa State is favored by two and a half at home.

Are you going to use the coin to pick the game? I mean, it's a Big 12 game. know anything. You're going to pretend like you know what's going to happen in this game? I am not pretending. I have a reason to pick what I'm picking. But if you want to use the coin, you go ahead. So one, Bear Bachmeier, freshman, whereas the hideous number 47 as a quarterback, but I kind of love it. It's like, it's like an ugly dog that's adorable when you see that 47 on the quarterback. Bear Bachmire's a good quarterback. He's, he's fun to watch.

Do you think if you wear number 47 as a quarterback that your speed rating and then CAA is automatically docked by five points? 100%. And now what I can't figure out is it a false flag? Because a bear barbomir is a pretty good athlete. And it might be that he's just trying to say to the defense, like, underestimate me at your peril. Yeah, I'm dressed like a fullback. It's okay. So I don't know.

But I really was impressed with the way they played against Utah. I'm surprised they're getting points in this game. I was surprised they were getting points against Utah last week. I am currently surprised they're getting points against Iowa State. So I will do exactly what I did last week when I go, I'm surprised you're getting points. I will take those points. I will take that gift.

Give me BYU to cover. BYU is like the antithesis of Auburn. It's like they're like not supremely talented. They're probably on par with what other teams in the Big 12 have. have and they just know how to win. They just know how to win, dude. And I think that that's a skill. I don't know how you teach it.

I don't know how it becomes contagious, but Kalani Sataki has proven time and time again. And they were like this last year. We kept joking about, oh, they survived by the skin of their teeth, but yet they keep doing it. Keep doing it. Do you think that they're going to get to 9 and 0 again?

I don't know. they, well, they got to play Texas Tech. See, the problem is they get some of their toughest big 12 opponents on the road. They're at Iowa State here. They play Texas Tech on November 8th. So they get a week off after this game and then Texas Tech. And then they're at Cincinnati on November 22nd. So I don't, like 9-0 means they beat Texas Tech,

which means they're probably going to be in the Big 12 championship game. Yeah, I think BYU is. is 7-0. There's only so many times that you can win a close game. Three of their last four wins were by seven or less, six or less, I should say.

They're on the road. I'm going to lay the points here. I'm going to fade myself. I think that my initial thought process was BYU knows how to win and they're getting points. But eventually, you know, it's just hard to keep doing it.

Well, and Iowa State's coming off an open date. They've lost two in a row. They lost to Cincinnati and they lost to Colorado. Colorado. In both those games, Rocco Becked was held, like, it looked terrible, but it was a lot less efficient than usual. Colorado is one of his worst games. He only completed 55% of his passes through a pick, 6.2 yard per attempt average. So that's not what you're hoping for. Dominique Orange got banged up, had it come off in those games. It sounds like he's going to

be fine. Their defensive tackle. So I just, I do think. think this is going to be a close game. I don't necessarily think BYU just goes in and rolls them. Do you know that I was BYU is going to figure out how to win this game? Iowa State lost two games in a row last year and then responded to that by winning three or not back dooring into the big 12 championship game. Yeah, they lost the Texas Tech and at Kansas and both of those games were one possession games just like well no, I'm sorry, the Kansas game won to one position game. They lost my nine. But in this case this year they were both

one possession games you're right they ripped off the win streak a little bit earlier on the season but um bYU Arizona state are those two big games that are they're going to have to face and those are the next two opponents but I think it's possible that this team

uh wins this game by three or more uh on Saturday and then like runs off the table and back doors our way into the big 12 championship game I believe in Matt Campbell um I wonder to like where he is emotionally with you know his name starting to pop up in coaching candidate stuff. I don't know if that's a pro or a con.

But he's illustrated. I mean, that's every year for Matt Campbell, so I think he's used to it by now. I mean, it kind of felt like he took a two or three-year break in the middle of it, though, where he kind of wasn't a factor. He got some calls last year.

Give me Iowa State minus two and a half. I like them in this spot. I think they're a team that, you know, BYU knows how to win. Iowa State knows how to not let things go off the rails. And I think if they lost this game, that would be the beginning of it. And I don't think that's going to happen.

So give me Iowa State. All right, let us go to another two and a half point spread, and this one's fascinating here. Texas A&M at LSU, Texas A&M is a two and a half point favorite on the road. This is a very intriguing game because Brian Kelly has only lost once as LSU's head coach in a night game at Tiger Stadium. That one loss was last year to Alabama in a game that LSU had to win to stay alive in the college. football playoff. The reason they couldn't beat Alabama is they could not contain Jalen Milrow, the very mobile Alabama quarterback. This came after Texas A&M, benched Connor Wegman at halftime of a game that LSU was dominating, put in Marcel Reed, and suddenly Texas

A&M went on to win. Ari, this feels like the exact circumstances of the Alabama game last year, why should I believe LSU is going to perform any differently? Go get them, eggs! You want me to talk you out of it? Give me Texas A&M. I want to make sure that I go on record first. Okay, you go on record with Texas A-Dem. And tell me why.

Because I can't find an identifiable thing that I feel really good about LSU outside of where they're playing the game and when it's being played. I don't pick games based on location and circumstance. I'm with you there. And I think the LSU fans were on this before everybody else was because they were on this before LSU lost Ole Miss. And their concerns were LSU doesn't run the ball very well. Their concerns were it doesn't look like Garrett Nussmeyer is completely healthy.

All of these things. They've all come home to Roost. Plus, against Diego Pavia, a mobile quarterback, you saw that LSU defense, which has been pretty good this year. You saw it have some issues. And this was a problem last year with Blake Baker's defense, but the difference is the personnel is better this year. But I go back to that game last year.

Can we pinpoint that A&M LSU game last year as the moment it started to turn on Brian Kelly? Yes. I think so too that was a disaster yeah you know I thought they had a pretty productive

off season they got better in some areas that they needed to get better at I thought that there was a reason to believe walking off the field at the other Death Valley at the beginning of the year I thought okay you know LSU's you know

the real deal this year you know with the context of you know thinking that Clemson was very good but every single week like I mean what game have they won this year that looked good. I mean, have they, have they looked even in their five- The Florida game, they had five interceptions, and that's why they won, but the offense

didn't give you any confidence. Do you know how bad it is to win a game by 10 when you pick the other quarterback off five times? Right. And one of those picks was a touchdown, by the way. You scored a touchdown on one of the picks. They only scored 19 points on Ole Miss. That was a loss.

The South Carolina game, especially given what Oklahoma just did to South Carolina, does not give you a lot of confidence. Do they get to 20 points in this game? I think it's going to be hard. I think it's going to be hard. And Texas A&M's defense is probably better than any defense they've seen so far.

Maybe that Florida's that night might have been about the same. So what did they score against? What did LSU's offense score against Florida's defense, 13 points? 13, yeah. They're not winning this game if they score 13 points. No. No, I'm going to take Texas A&M.

Now, let me ask you just before we hear your pick. Do you think A&M is legitimately a top three team in the country? I don't know if they're top three team in the country, but I know they are a very good team. I think they're one of the best teams in the SEC. I am starting to not believe that there is anything supernatural blocking them from being successful. And I don't know if it's Mike Elko who took that away or Marcel Reed who took that

away or finding a couple good receivers in the portal or just being really good across the board on defense. But it might be that they've just constructed a very sound team that is well-coached. And those teams tend to perform well. Interesting. Relentlessly functional. Relentlessly functional. relentlessly functional is the best.

I love that. I love that description. And it's interesting because Marcel Reed, you know, when you saw him come in last year in the Florida game, you're like, okay, they got something with this guy, but can he throw the ball? It feels like he's a little bit limited throwing the ball.

And it felt that way when they put him back in in the LSU game. But then when you see him after an offseason where they've built the whole offense around him, Colin Klein, the offensive coordinator, there's a reason why we keep mentioning his name in these head coaching searches. he seems very smart what he's done with that offense what he's built around marcel reed is really

impressive it's because he went and said i'm not going to make marcel reed fit into something that i want to do or i'm just going to help find players that compliment him and then i'm going to call an offense that complements what he does best and hides what he does worst that's called coaching is what that is yes it's called good competent coaching and that is exactly what LSU or what Texas A&M has had in the Mike Elko era. LSU, on the other hand, while they had a Heisman trophy winner who had to play opposite the worst defense of all time. They had a better defense this year that is hamstrung by an offense that struggles to block

and struggles to run the ball. It's, they can never, it, you've seen the movie Friday, right? Of course. Yeah. So when Craig starts supporting. the cereal and realize he doesn't have milk. And Smokey's like, you always got one thing, but not the other.

Ham, no burger. That's LSU. Serial no milk, ham, no burger. That's LSU. I wonder if Miami fans feel that way this year, too. No, because I think they have a defense and the offense,

well, it had a bad game. So we'll have to watch more of Miami. But the question is, But you know what LSU fans are saying to continue my Friday analogy? LSU fans are saying to Brian Kelly, put some water on that damn shit. That's what they're saying.

Who's got one thing and out the other. Yeah, A&M, A&M by more than two and a half on the road. Also, if you were a battered Aggie, I know this is probably not what you want to see. A&M laying points on the road in Death Valley after LSU is coming off of a loss. Like, your alarm bells are probably going off. A&M could lose this game and be completely fine.

Like, if you look at their remaining schedule, like the two tough or the three toughest games that they were going to play this year. Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Those are the three, if you're in August and you're looking at those games, those are the games you point out. Now, obviously, Missou on the road isn't going to be an easy environment, easy game. at all. But if they go one and one in their next two games, they're fine. They're fine. And if they lose to Texas, they still might be fine. And I got to tell you, Notre Dame should be rooting like hell, rooting like hell for A&M to keep winning. Because you do not want to be compared at the end of the year to a 10 and 2 team with a head-to-head win.

That played in the SEC. And, I'm saying this. Notre Dame. Oh, Miami and Texas A&M are buffered. Like, the more Notre Dame wins, the more it protects Miami and Texas A&M. And those two teams,

funny enough, depending on how you feel about the way the SEC pans out, might be ranked number nine and number 10 at the end of the year. So if you want to talk about the lock to get in, Notre Dame is the boundary that keeps them like Notre Dame's the force field keeping them up there's a force field there

then Oregon's going to get into the playoff without making it in the big 10 title game too you got a lot of teams who are going to be making it to the playoff without making playing in their championship game true and if the committee acts the way they did last year and rewards teams who lost their conference championship game then there might be one two three 24, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 teams that are more likely to get in than you. I would be shitting my pants of our Notre Dame right now. Well, we'll let them worry about that. We just beat USC. They're happy.

They're happy. I have to announce a pick for this game. I've yet to announce a pick, though. If you've been listening the entire time, I think you know where I'm going with this. I will take Texas A&M to cover the two and a half. Let us move to East Lansing, Michigan. Michigan at Michigan State. Ari Sharon Moore wore the blue-collar jacket

to his press conference again on Monday. He said, hey, it worked last week. I figured I'd do it again. He also said he didn't see any of the memes. I find that very hard to believe. He did, yeah. I hope he saw the chef one, and I hope he laughed. Like, you have to laugh at that one.

Do you think that being online as a coach is a good or a bad thing? Terrible thing. Would never do it. Really? Yes, because people are so, like, think about how mean people are to us, and we're nobody. Imagine what they are to these coaches. Like, if you were, if you were a coach, I guess Lane Kiffin's the only one who's serially online. And I'm sure people are nasty to him, although most of his replies are probably just Florida fans begging him to come right now.

But if I were Sharon Moore, I would not look at the internet ever, ever. Mario Cristobal is online. Mm-hmm. Jed Fish is online. Yeah. I'm trying to think of coaches who have done well, who have been online. It's hard to do. Like, I don't have the temperament for it, and I think most people don't.

Because if you are in that position, you are bound to draw a lot of negativity. And I don't care how tough you are or how mentally strong you are. You see that many people saying terrible things about you and your family and everybody you ever met. It's going to be a drag on you. That said. I was ever in a position to be able to charter my own boat off of St. that like I wouldn't care what anybody thinks but maybe it's easier to say they're all that rich no I don't think it matters I don't think of it but that said if I were Sharon Moore

if I saw the meme of me and the chef outfit I would have laughed the bondage outfit maybe not but but the chef outfit was hilarious the astronaut was pretty funny too you should come out wearing like a Thanksgiving turkey outfit and just say we're going to feast this weekend Guys, I don't know if it's occurred to you yet. I don't know if it's going to occur to you yet. But let me make it real clear. Michigan is going to be nine and two when they host Ohio State this year. And when Michigan is nine and two when they host Ohio State this year,

threaten me with a good time, Ari. Andy, it's happening. It literally is happening right in front of our faces. And when they're nine and two and facing Ohio State in Ann Arbor with a playoff spot, on the line. Mm-hmm. Uh-huh, uh-huh. That is why we do what we do.

Okay, all right, I spun this scenario out before where I talked about maybe we go to Texas A&M at Texas on on Black Friday and then we go see Ohio State Michigan. If that, if those indeed are the circumstances, can I, can I give you another potential? Yeah, because it's been a Thanksgiving weekend. 30 p.m. kickoff Friday and a noon kickoff the next day, which would be kind of hard. What if we watch the black Friday? What if we fly like on the morning of the black Friday? Friday, we fly to Detroit, and we spend the entire day at the bed-MGM casino in Detroit in the

sports book watching Black Friday football games. And then we cover Ohio State, Michigan with potential Michigan playoff berth on the line. And of course, potential Buckeye tears, Buckeye Joy, all of it in one place. Here's my impression of Jackie Chan in the movie Rush Hour. Now you are speaking in my language. It's a date. But first, to do that, Michigan has to win this game. Michigan is favored by 14 against Sparty. Jonathan Smith, the Michigan State Coach, should definitely not be online.

He should never look at the internet. Never look at social media. Not even once. Because his fans are down on him. They are down. Down bad, bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. Yeah, give me a reason. Give me a reason to not lay points here.

I mean, I guess, like, I've been, like, kind of, I think I've been overly rational about Michigan this year in the sense of, like, hey, they're pretty good, they're not great. Let's pump the brakes on the firing of Sharon Moore talks. Like, you know, this is really his first year with an entire roster. I think that there are deficiencies on this roster that could have been better addressed in the offseason. That weren't. But the way that they played against Washington, dude, that was a good. team. That was a really good team. That was the best they've looked all year. Bryce Underwood is

flourishing and developing in front of our eyes. Their defense is looking like the old Michigan defenses that we've become accustomed to expecting. Washington's a team that can score. They did not score. What does Michigan State bring into the table in this matchup that makes you think this is going to be a competitive game? A steroid out mascot? I don't know. Trivia question, Ari. What was the last time Michigan

State ran for more than four yards of carry in a game. Holy crap, it must be a long time ago if you're asking me something that specific. It was the Youngstown State game in week three. Since then, they've played four games. USC, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, that three and a half yards of carry is the best that they've managed to muster. The way you beat Michigan is you run against Michigan, USC showed you how to do it. They can't do it. They can't do it.

I just don't know what you're going to do. And plus, Michigan seems to be rounding into form. Like, we are starting to see what Bryce Underwood can be. And it's really exciting because the guy is going to be good. Like, you could tell, even in the early games when they were kind of struggling, this guy's got the tools. But now you're seeing it start to get put together. And I thought he looked really good in the Washington game.

I cannot wait to see what the next steps of his evolution are. Yeah, I'm on Southwest's website right now, checking out flights to Detroit. So can't imagine why you do that. Also, Detroit after Thanksgiving is a very lovely place to be. Well, yeah, absolutely. Detroit style pizza, by the way, highly underrated, rectangular, thick, delicious. There's a place in like the Greek town area called Papadopolis or something.

I don't know. It's a Greek pizza place that is awesome. Now, I don't know. You're speaking my language. I don't know, like, where the Detroit. style originated or if there's like a restaurant in Detroit that claims to be the birthplace of it that I've never been to. But there's some good pizza in Detroit.

And there's a casino in Detroit and it's going to be cold in Detroit. And it's going to feel like the perfect black flag. And we're getting ahead of ourselves. The Michigan State fans are going nuts here. Like, why do you keep talking about the Michigan, Ohio State game? We have to hear about that all year anyway. Because we're not that confident that you're going to put up much of a roadblock against the Wolverines. That's why.

And if you're a Michigan State fan who wants to jump into the food conversation, I'd like to know, why are there so many Coney Island restaurants in Detroit? Well, you can, Michigan fans can answer that, too. Yeah, they all live in. But I'm including Michigan State. Fan bases live in Detroit, yes. Yeah, yeah, Coney Islands in New York. Why do you call them Coney Islands?

There's a million Coney Island restaurants, and there's got to be a reason for it. And maybe I could Google that. But, yeah, I like a good Coney Island restaurant, but there's a ton of them in Detroit. Anyway, yeah, let's, uh, Michigan State fans, if you are up, set about the ratio in which we were discussing Michigan instead of Michigan State during this segment. The best news for you is that on Saturday, you have the ability as a program to change the perception, to change the perspective, and to change the conversation.

Give us a reason to talk about you. I just don't know if they can. And that's the thing. And if Michigan goes in there and steamrolls them, I think you're going to look at this situation and go, what happens next for Jonathan Smith? Because remember, Jay Batt, the athletic director at Michigan State is new there. he just got there from Georgia Tech. So he's evaluating everything with fresh eyes.

And if he doesn't think things are going well, I wouldn't be shocked if he decides to do something. So we'll find out. If we ever do get to cover a game in East Lansing again, Ari, I'm going to take you to Joe's Gizzard City in Potterville, Michigan. They will put anything in the deep fryer there, literally anything. I said, well, you put a double bacon cheeseburger in the deep fryer. and the lady said absolutely

wait so you bring your thing and then they put it in whatever's on their menu they will put it in deep fire for you oh okay what is the thing that you think is never deep fried ever on any menu ever that should be turkey now I realize you can get fried turkey like people make fried turkey

for Thanksgiving but you rarely can get fried turkey out yeah why is fried turkey like why can't you get fried turkey the same way you can get fried chicken I don't know but I think I think is it because turkey is more expensive and it's more expensive to produce fried turkey it's cheaper turkey is cheaper than chicken I'm going to call Joe's Gizzard City when we're done with this because they'll fry anything and just ask them that question they probably have the answer even if it's not on their menu they probably have the answer to that so perception is always that turkey was more expensive it's not. I will take Michigan to cover the 14. Me too. Sparty, if you don't like that,

and I don't think Michigan State fans are that mad at us for this. I think they understand where it's at. But yeah, if Sparty doesn't like that, Sparty needs to show up on Saturday and give us something to talk about. It hasn't happened yet. Ari, this has been a fabulous, fabulous set of picks. I can't wait for these games this weekend. We have a great week of shows coming up. Scheduled to join us on Tuesday, Vanderbilt coach Clark Lee, his team, playing in a game

against Missouri. College game day is coming. Playoff berth. Maybe on the line, maybe not. Both of them have a mulligan in their pocket. But it's going to be a lot of fun. What a week coming up in college football. We'll talk to you again on Tuesday.

Thank you.