Andy & Ari On3 - College Football's Bracketology & Bubble Watch entering Week 13

Episode Date: November 17, 2024

The College Football Playoff continues to gain more context each week to what the field will look like. After a wild Saturday, Andy & Ari sit down to discuss the bracketology field along with the teams on the bubble. Is your team on this list? What do they need to do better to remain or jump into the field? Find out hereThis show is sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES(0:00-26:03) Bracketology(26:04-41:08) Bubble WatchHosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

Sorry, I am dreading looking on the Internet because I know what's going to happen when on three releases that bracket ology graphic, the one you see on your screen right now. I know what's going to happen. I know the Texas fans and the Texas A&M fans are coming from my neck. But here's the thing, I had to make a decision about what's going to happen to figure out how to make a realistic bracket. Because I couldn't just put Texas and Texas A&M in there

or put one of them and not one or the other without explaining here's how we got to this point. And the fact of the matter is that game is going to decide who plays in the SEC championship game. But there's still a chance that both of those teams get into the who have you beaten debate with Penn State in Indiana. So I see the straight line there, Andy. It's A&M wins the Texas game and then loses in the SEC championship and gets their third. Am I understanding that correctly? You are. We talked about this on the show. I think it was last week in disaster scenarios. This is the ultimate disaster scenario for the Texas teams in the SEC because Texas gets a second loss, misses the SEC championship game, does not have a good win to peg its resume on Texas A&M stays in the competition but loses to

Alabama in the SEC championship game and then loses like beats Texas on the field but loses in the boardroom and also doesn't make the playoff. It's a distinct possibility. Now. I've got Indiana at 11 the last at large. If Indiana loses to Ohio State, which is I have them losing to Ohio State. Otherwise they'd be seated much higher. Then one of those might get in over Indiana. I would assume it'd be A&M if it won the game

or if Texas won the game, they would get in over to you. But that's where the debate's going to come. It's going to be the who have you beaten debate around 10, 11, 12 in the rankings. Yeah. The thing that I'm amused by is the strength of schedule metric because it feels like Penn State is an untouchable when it comes to teams that might be sweating on selection Sunday, but Indiana is the brunt of every single head to head conflict that could happen. And I know they played West Virginia and their numbers say that their schedule is much tougher. Their strength is scheduled, no matter where you look, is in the low thirties. Now Indiana's is at like a hundred

right now. It's going to go way up when they play Ohio State. So it's going to change, but I don't think it's going to get that high. I wonder where it's going to be though. When you say it changes, do we anticipate playing Ohio State on the road makes them 60? Yeah, something like 60s,

like probably in the 60s somewhere. That's what I would think. Yeah, but I mean, think about the gap between Indiana and Penn State in the placement of this discussion like in the Indiana is constantly going to be compared to a SEC team at some point like that comparison is going to happen if they don't beat Ohio State. in no discussion. And I think the only difference between these two teams is who they've played this year in the same conference. And I don't know if I believe that Penn State's route was, like, as much more difficult as the numbers would suggest, because, you know, I know they had to play Wisconsin and stuff, but like, is, is playing Wisconsin going to be the reason why you're not debated and Indiana is now I think the number one bullet point here is what if Indiana goes to Ohio State and loses by three then that's what I was gonna gonna ask you because

Penn State lost by a touchdown to Ohio State at home. If Indiana goes to Ohio State and loses a one score game on the road, let's say it's a controversial finish. I think you put Indiana above above Penn State in that scenario because you have pretty similar resumes otherwise. And I also think too Andy that like, it's not even about the margin of defeat. Like what if Indiana loses to Ohio State 44 to 34,

but the game is a pretty back and forth affair. There's a garbage time touchdown to cushion the lead. Yeah, yeah. We will be able to tell, and I'm hoping that the committee would be able to tell that Indiana from an eye test standpoint played better. Because Penn State lost by seven, but Penn State wasn't gonna win that game in a hundred tries.

So maybe if they played them again, it would be a different game, but in that specific game, Penn State was not going to win that game in 100 tries. So maybe if they played them again, it would be a different game, but in that specific game, Penn State was not up for the challenge. So, you know, again, I think that you're making it cleaner on Indiana because I think Indiana gets in over a three loss A&M, if that's who they're compared to.

But if they start getting compared to a two loss- Tennessee? Yes, like Tennessee would scare me a hell of a lot more But if they start getting compared to a two loss to Tennessee, yes, he's like Tennessee would scare me a hell of a lot more than the three lost Texas A&M would. So but then that also opens up Pandora's box. You know, and these videos are getting more interesting because we're getting closer to this being what's actually going to happen.

The penalizing of the conference champion losers because you're going to penalize the loser of the ACC championship because you're going to penalize the loser of the ACC championship and you're going to penalize the loser of the big 12 championship. And I'm going to be very interested to see what the discourse of the ACE, the SEC loser is because- And the big 10, well, the big 10 loser is probably not out. Like the big 10 championship game loser is going to be

probably a one or two lost team that you feel pretty comfortable being in. And we're going to preview probably a one or two loss team. They feel pretty comfortable being in. And we're going to preview this this game, this Indiana, Ohio State game pretty thoroughly on this on this channel and on our podcast feed and on three dot com. But also, too, like we do, we have been having a lot of discussions of when Indiana loses to Ohio State, and I don't think that that's a guaranteed situation either, as you know. And that changes the math considerably.

Like, because this is a projection of what we think it might look like at the end, I have to kind of pick the winners of these games. Like I went on that website where you figure out who plays in the SEC championship based on you. You just say who this team won this game, this team won this game. And so you have to pick the winners to figure this out. I picked Ohio State to beat Indiana and and by the way, I did it. It's not a 65 to 14 game like if that

were if that actually happens that Indiana is out, but if Indiana beats Ohio State, we have a very different situation because Indiana is going to the Big Ten Championship game. Ohio State's not. Ohio State still has the win against Penn State, which keeps it above Penn State, but I think would actually push Penn State down because Penn State has to be below Ohio State. That might actually knock Penn State into the competition of who have you beaten with those SEC teams that are all sitting down there at the. Yeah, right. The cut line. Yeah, our friend Ralph Russo made a comment in text on Sunday morning about whether people are taking Ohio State's safety for granted. And I don't think that Ohio State's in danger, who I think is in

danger is Penn State. Like if Ohio State loses again, there might be a debate there, although Penn State would still only have one loss. So I think it gets interesting, but I don't know that Ohio State's in a position right now with a win over who might be a top three team. Penn State at the end of the year is out. I think that the number one thing about college football is collecting of resume bullet points and the teams that have the most pretty bullet points in their sack at the end of the year

are the ones that are gonna make the playoff. So that's why Indiana is the constant fixture of this discussion because Indiana has none. And it's possible that the best resume bullet point that Indiana collects throughout this entire year is a close loss to Ohio State if that's how it plays out. So and I'm never I'm not a big fan. And I've criticized Penn State for saying the best thing about their resume is a

close loss. Let's look at the auto bids. Now I went back on my SEC prediction and flipped it to Miami. Because the more I thought about it, yeah, they lost to Georgia Tech, but SMU's also got a loss. It's to BYU, which just lost to Kansas last night. I think Miami, if they wake up after the Georgia Tech game, I think Miami's still probably a better team than SMU.

So I'm just saying I think Miami wins that game. Yeah, I think that's probably irrational. And then Colorado, which is this is not clickbait. Definitely could lose it though. Let's be clear. Like that's not yeah, no, it's that's a that's an either or spot. That's either Miami or SMU. I put Colorado in at number four. And you did it in Bubblewatch last week. I put Colorado in at number four and you did it in bubble watch last week. I was tempted to do it last week, but I figured okay, BYU still undefeated hung on by the skin of its teeth. We'll give him another week. BYU did lose

Colorado continues to look better than everybody else in the big 12 like it is will Colorado be favored in every game from here on out including the big 12 championship game? Yes. Now they still have to beat Kansas, which just beat BYU. But if they do, I think they're in pretty good shape. I would not be surprised if they're, I haven't looked at the look ahead spreads yet,

but I would not be surprised if the Kansas game is a three and a half point big 12 coin special. So that kind of strikes me as what we're looking for this week. And, you know, I think Colorado, it's easy to take for granted how well they've looked and put them in the playoff. I now this is my second consecutive week doing it on bubble watch. That is not a guaranteed proposition on Saturday either. The two big 12 games that we're getting next weekend, BYU and Arizona

State and Colorado and Kansas may be outside of the Indiana Ohio State game, the two most interesting games on the on the weekend slate next Saturday. Yeah, and the way like the way Kansas won because I assumed it's because Kansas is offense is playing so much better. And that's what that's how they beat Iowa State. But their defense was lights out against BYU. That's why they won the game. They didn't, they didn't score a lot. BYU defense held him in check. Ari, it is not a big 12 coin special right now, according to Fandel. You look at it is Colorado minus 1.5.

That's even, that's it. I think that illustrates my point even more. Yeah. Yeah. And this game, this game's at Arrowhead. Remember Kansas Stadium is under construction. So all the big 12 games this year are at Arrowhead. So it's a road game sort of, but not really

because it is a, you know, it's not Kansas home stadium either. And I assume this is one that Colorado fans might wanna make the trip. It's not a horrible trip, not a horrible drive, easy flights as well. So I don't know where the crowd split is going to be there, but I think the game is going to be so much fun. I cannot wait to see this one.

Let's talk group of five because there's a game there that could be very interesting Army Notre Dame play at Yankee Stadium Notre Dame we've talked about a million times. They've got one loss. It's a northern, Illinois that loss sucks But they also have a Texas A&M win and they've been fairly dominant the rest of the way They play an undefeated army If army wins this game, army then what you would think continues on to play two lane in the American championship. Now they're going to play two lane

in the American championship. But if they are undefeated playing two lane in the American championship, then you've got a very interesting situation. Because Army could take I mean if Army is undefeated like if they beat Notre Dame and then beat Tulane they would be 12 and oh because they wouldn't have played Navy yet I think they would be ranked higher than Boise State I'm with you yeah I think that being undefeated in the American and beating Notre Dame is a more impressive overall resume than what Boise State's done. Now, the thing that Boise State has have that there's nothing that army can do to match is they've got a really flashy star player who everyone knows who that person is.

But when it gets Notre Dame, Trump's having Ashton Gentie. Yeah, I think you're right. I think the combination of best win and. Undefeated is probably an inarguable position to be in. I think if you're on the other side, can I ask you this? Sorry, because Boise State is hovering in the in the committee's actual rankings hovering right at the cut line there They dropped him below it this week. They had him above it

the first week if Army beats Notre Dame and goes undefeated and Boise State continues to win and they wind up 12 and 1 and winning them out in West Could they both get in because now we have a big thief situation. I don't think you could because who are you going to kick out? Well, would they be higher ranked than the big 12 or ACC champ? I think that would be possible. That would be who got kicked out. If that happened. Yeah.

Could you imagine if Miami didn't go to the playoff this year because army went undefeated and beat Notre Dame? Uh, I don't think that that would happen. I think that did thief. I think the recipient of the theft would be a team that didn't win their conference. I think they would just find a way to drop Boise state below the cut line in that situation and put army in.

I just don't think two are going to go. Yeah. Um, yeah. And I think that's what's interesting is, you know, the discussion of whether or not Boise will be a team that receives a buy and the big 12 champion or somebody from another league, uh, an ACC champion, for instance, depending on how things wrap up is the 12 seed. I don't know.

How that's all going to play out, but let me ask you this Andy, because this is the most interesting thing I think about this week is how did you navigate the clump of teams in the SEC? It was very difficult. It's very good. So first of all, I had to figure out who I thought would play in the SEC Championship game,

so I decided let's say Texas A&M beats Texas. And look. If Texas beats Texas A&M, I don't know that that actually makes it any simpler or cleaner, so you can. You can play this either way. Let's say Texas A&M beats Texas and look if Texas beats Texas A&M I don't know that that actually makes it any simpler or cleaner so you can you can play this either way of Texas beating Texas A&M or A&M beating Texas They're both in danger if they make it and lose the SEC Championship game. So remember that Most of the scenarios

Assuming chalk in the other games. And I realize I I'm the one who said crazy shit happens and probably will. But assuming chalk in the other games, Alabama is going to the SEC championship game opposite the winner of the Texas and Texas A&M game. I would have Alabama favored against either one of those teams. Yeah. Andy was up till three in the morning fiddling with the SEC calculator. So if you want to know how he, how his evening was spent on Saturday

night after our show that is, but you know, it is then I had Georgia. Go ahead. Sorry. Yeah. Then I had Georgia because they've got the two best wins with Texas and Tennessee. Now they still, they also have losses have losses to Ole Miss in Alabama the Ole Miss losses is a thorough beating the Alabama loss They came back. They were leading in the fourth quarter the Ryan Williams touchdown happens. So it's that was a closer game But I just think peak Georgia can beat everybody

But I just think peak Georgia can beat everybody. So I put them higher than everybody else. You think that your bracket is messy in the SEC? I actually think that this cleans it up pretty easily. You think so? Because if Texas loses to A&M, they are out of the cluster because they, like the hardest thing about the cluster is they all beat each other. Right. And they would have no wins against the other ones.

So if you move Texas to a 2-loss situation, being compared to Ole Miss and Alabama and Georgia and Tennessee, they don't really stack up because all 4 of those teams have at least one quality win in SEC play that Texas doesn't have. And then if A&M is in that picture, then they would be a three-loss team at that point. And I think that the other four SEC teams that you have in your field stack up and are more deserving than Texas and A&M both would be at the end of the year. Because like even with Tennessee, like I had a hard time with them. It's like what Tennessee lost most frequently, but Tennessee has got every bit as an impressive resume as the other two. So like outside of Georgia I think Georgia unequivocally has the best resume of all of them, but it gets tricky because they lost to Alabama So you got to put Alabama ahead blah blah blah

But like Tennessee goes toe-to-toe pound for pound with the other three. Whereas I don't think Texas, Ray and M do Let me ask you this of the four I have in the bracket, which is Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, and then Texas and Texas A&M, who are also considering here, of those six, what four scare you the most? If you are another you've been playing in a player. Okay. All right. Then I feel better. And I actually think I could be interchangeable with Alabama and Texas. Like the thing that I'm having a hard time with is. All right. Then I feel better. And I actually think I could be interchangeable with Alabama and Texas. Like the thing that I'm having a hard time with is crazy because Texas could be two or out.

Yeah. The thing that I'm having a hard time with is that in this season, we have had a lot of ups and downs in the sec, right? My notions have switched radically every weekend about some of these teams. Like there's been a point in the season where I thought of Tennessee, if Nico turns it on and realizes his potential and they get open and their offense turns on. I know, but at a point this year, I thought they could win the national title. When Alabama beat Georgia, I was like, holy crap, Kalen DeBoer has him back, baby. Alabama is one of the most talented teams in college football.

They've got Ryan Williams and they lost to Vandy. Georgia, we saw in person last weekend at Ole Miss got annihilated physically in a four quarter game. Um, and who's the last one? Well, Ole Miss, Ole Miss and Ole Miss has lost to Kentucky while also beating the crap out of Georgia. So like all four of those teams, at certain points, you've been very high on and very low on. And the biggest challenge that I have with Bubble Watch in your bracketology is, is that a lot of times my biggest weakness as a podcaster is becoming prisoner of the moment and not

seeing the picture from a 30,000 feet up. And it's like, are we nor that Alabama's issues that caused them to lose to Vanderbilt are 100% gone. So why would I be a hundred percent confident that that Alabama would beat Texas if they played right? Like that's, that's irrational. So, and that's why you and I were texting, just so you know, inside baseball, Andy and I text about what we're doing at night at three in the morning, just to make sure we're not screwing up. And like he almost, like him talking me through his thought process almost convinced me to change my thought, which was to drop Texas out too. And then I started thinking like,

wait, am I sure that Alabama is better than Texas because they've won three in a row. What about the? Yeah, I'm not sure either. I'm just basically going like who'd be favored in the game. So it's a very difficult needle to thread. And I also again think something crazy might happen. Speaking of crazy, prize picks makes all the crazy in sports that much more fun. It is the most fun daily fantasy game in America. Download the app. Use the code staples when you sign up. Play $5.00. Get $50 instantly. Obviously you can play it when you're watching college football. They've got

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yards, more or less. We'll find out. So download that Price Picks app. Use the code STAPLES to sign up. Play $5. Get $50 instantly. Ari. So we're watching Indiana, Ohio State this week.

We're watching Notre Dame Army this week. We're watching Colorado State. we're watching Indiana, Ohio state this week. We're watching Notre Dame army this week watching Colorado and Kansas. Arizona state BYU is another one. And these are teams that we don't have in the bracket, but are lurking there. Arizona state and BYU both have a chance to make the playoff. And I think there's probably a lot of people going Arizona State. What? Yeah.

If you lose track of teams and they keep winning behind the scenes, it kind of happened with Colorado, right? Like, I mean, we lost track of them after the Nebraska game. And then when they lost to Kansas state and it was just like, oh, you look up all of a sudden, they've won four in a row and here we are. Yeah. Arizona State is, I don't know this for a fact, but I think if they beat BYU, they're in the champion, they gets that simple, right?

All they have to do is beat BYU. I think they have to win the next game. I think I did beat Arizona as well. Because yeah, but I'm saying like they control their own destiny though. I guess. Yep. So, you know, it's all right there in front of them. They've been a really, really good team and it's been kind of a, a world win to see how quickly Kenny Dillingham has turned that thing around.

But, you know, the Big 12, I think we are taking for granted a little bit that Colorado is the team because they've looked so good. And that's kind of how this works. But there's certainly a, a world where, I mean, hell, what if Arizona State's the four seed in this thing? I mean, it, what if Arizona State's the four seed in this thing? I mean, it's not possible. Yeah. Or what if Arizona State wins the big 12 and Boise State's the four seed and Arizona State is the 12 seed? Could happen. Because that's entirely possible. Could happen. It's hard. It's hard to fill these out. And that's what makes it fun because I, there's a couple results and this is something we were texting about.

Before the before we get on got on this video also. What games could really change the way all this looks because it is November and we're coming into a week. It feels like this week, the week before Thanksgiving, the weekend before Thanksgiving is the weekend before Thanksgiving, is the one where there's always something that just completely blows your mind. So, there's a couple games that maybe,

if something shook out, like, let's say Auburn beat Texas A&M. That would be very interesting. I actually think Auburn beating Alabama would really blow things up. And that's the, the, the Saturday after Thanksgiving Penn state at Minnesota this week is one Minnesota's not bad. They keep the scores down usually.

Like what if they get into a rock fight with Penn state and win? I mean, that that that changes everything. Yeah. And I haven't really done the thought exercise, but if and when that happens, it will be interesting to see how much the entire bracket changes, not just one thing. Because if you, because if Penn State falls or, you know, another team falls, then you have to put a new team in and that new team that you put in might have to win head to head with the team that lost and then three other teams that are similar to it on the outside too. Like it's not just like a swap scenario where it's like, Oh, well, they're out there and like, it's complicated. And now we're at the

point in the year too, Andy, where you have to make sure that what you're doing from a seeding standpoint makes sense and can actually happen. Because at the beginning of the year, there were so many games left, you could just say, oh, I'll put them at six, because I think they're number six right now. It's like, no, you have to like figure out who's playing who and if it's even possible. So it's kind of like putting a big puzzle together.

Well, the Texas fans stopped watching this thing like in minute one, but if there are still any hanging around, don't worry. You can be right back in this thing. All it takes is one or two things to happen. And really for Texas, they still actually control their destiny. If they just keep winning and they beat Texas A&M and they go to Atlanta and they win the SEC Championship game, they're going to be a two seed or a one seed.

It's going to be fine. I never thought that the. Longhorns would wish they were in the Big 12 or better strength schedule, but here we are, you know. Hey look, I'm sure when they saw that initial SEC schedule there all they're like, woo boy, that could have been a lot worse and now they're like wait we we. Why did you give us such an easy schedule? They're also really

mad at Michigan. If we're being real here, Michigan was supposed to be much better. Like if Michigan was what Michigan was supposed to be, a win at the Big House would be buoying Texas's schedule and it's not. So that's not Texas's fault. But unfortunately, intent doesn't really matter in this situation. It's whether the team was good or not. And this year's Michigan team, not very good. So Ari, let's just wait one more week of results.

We'll give us potentially a very different looking bracket next week. And then we're still two weeks away from the real thing. A lot can change. Now we've talked about my bracket ology calm it's time to talk about Ari's bubble watch column which is completely different Than bracket ology because Ari did not let me talk him into leaving Texas out and You see how the chain reaction happens. Ari, let's talk bubble watch different from what I did in

bracketology because you didn't let me talk you into leaving Texas out. You actually had Tennessee in your first group out. I had Tennessee in what went. What was behind that decision as you took the steps to figure out, okay, who's going to win what game and how does this slot in the bracket? You're a good video host Andy, because you got right to the heart of the thing. I was most insecure about because like in my heart of hearts, I am not sure.

That Tennessee as a 10 and two team with a win over Alabama would be left out, uh, in favor of Indiana. Like I know that we, we, we keep saying 11 in one Indiana is in there in there in maybe they are. Uh, I don't know if I believe that in the gut, you know what I mean? Like, I think that the quality win thing here is really going to come into play and Tennessee losing an extra game. Cause they had to go play a road game at Georgia is, well, I guess their extra loss would just be Arkansas.

Arkansas. So, but still like you, you get a lot of welfare in that room with wins, like the one, especially with Alabama winning the way that they are. I mean, hell, what if Alabama is a conference champion at the end of the year? Like I see is in, like they're in.

So now, but here's the thing, and this is the chain reaction part. If Alabama is a conference champion, it's cause they beat Texas or Texas A&M in the SEC championship game. And whoever they beat is the team that won the Texas, Texas A&M game. So like, you got to kind of figure out what that means for everybody. So you've got Texas winning the SEC, which is kind of the probably the cleanest way to do this. Because if Texas keeps winning, they're the SEC champ, they're probably the two seed behind an organ or an Ohio State. And then you figure out where to put everybody else in the SEC. The way that the championship game situation works is it's probably Alabama.

If everything goes chalk, the rest of the way, because I believe that their conference opponents would have the highest cumulative winning percentage. Yeah. Well, the reason why I kept Texas in there wasn't because it's the cleanest way. It's because I didn't want to be a prisoner of the moment of the most recent results. I think that I am worried about them. Their offense scares the crap out of me. Like we talked about for five, 10 minutes on our show late Saturday night.

But I'm not 100% convinced that Alabama is just a flawless team that hasn't, you know, that doesn't have those warts that we've seen in their losses. I'm not convinced that, you know, Georgia doesn't have those warts that we've seen in their losses. I'm not convinced that, you know, Georgia can't show up and get beaten the way that they were beaten at Ole Miss. You know, I'm not sure that Tennessee has the offense to win a national title this year. Like, like, why am I, why would I drop them out? They've only lost once, and they have an opportunity to, and the easiest path maybe, to winning the SEC. So I think that for the time being, I'm going to keep them there. And I felt comfortable with that.

But yeah, the SEC is just all over the place in terms of they beat them and they beat them. It's really hard to do the math. You needed that like calculator online to figure it out yourself. But, you know, I don't know that Texas playing a tough game on the road in Arkansas was enough for me to change my mind on them yet, though I will admit Andy, and I don't know if this makes me a disingenuous bad pot, I don't think they're gonna win the SEC. Like in my gut, like I just I don't feel like that's why I left them out in bracketology.

Again, you have to pick who you think will win these games. So I don't think they would win both the A&M game and the SEC championship game. I think they would lose one of those. I had them losing the A&M game. It doesn't matter though. Because I think if they were to beat A&M, your entire perspective of whether they win in Atlanta changes. So that's like, that's the problem. Yeah, that's true. That's true. And again, if it's Alabama, That's true. That's true. And again, if it's Alabama, there's no guarantee which Alabama shows up. So it's what you have is not far fetched in the least. I want to talk about your last four in because I'm very interested in the way you you put this. You have Ole Miss over Georgia, which makes sense Ole Miss beat Georgia thoroughly in Oxford.

But Georgia now has two very good wins in Texas and Tennessee. And I think we saw a Georgia offense that looked much better than anything we've seen all year. Carson Beck definitely had his best game. And it's one of those, did peak Georgia, seeing peak Georgia change how you feel about the Bulldogs? I do feel different about the Bulldogs, but I am not convinced that they are not,

I was more moved on my opinion of Georgia at Ole Miss last weekend than I was yesterday. Or on Saturday night when they beat Tennessee. Like if we had to like rank or percentage wise of how much of the previous games have molded your current opinion on them, I think that there would be more Ole Miss in there than the Tennessee win. And the thing that I'm trying to- Is that because you assume Georgia had a game like the Tennessee game in it? But the Ole Miss game was so unusual because we've not seen Georgia look like that in years

No, I think it's because I actually think Ole Miss could win the national title and when Georgia played a team that could win the National championship that's what happened and I am unconvinced that Tennessee is as good as Ole Miss so and I am unconvinced that Tennessee is as good as Ole Miss. So Tennessee has definitely looked great at times. And I've been a Tennessee Kool-Aid drinker. I was a Kool-Aid drinker with my wallet on Saturday night, and I was watching the game, and I just never felt like they were gonna score in the second half. And that's not because Georgia was 20-20 Georgia.

That was because Tennessee has some problems. So I think that winning a game at home by 14, that was pretty close. Like, I mean, Tennessee was down seven late in the second half with the ball. It's not like Georgia kicked their ass. Like, I don't know. They have to be back in because they have the hardest schedule and the best collection of wins of anybody in college football. But I don't know that, like, peak Georgia

is walking through that door again. And we also have questions about Texas. So I actually will be honest with you, Andy. I have a lot of questions about just the SEC in general. In terms of the way teams have looked, I think that the most impressive of all these wins in that cluster was Ole Miss's win over Georgia, which doesn't really make sense,

because I'm saying Georgia might not be as good, but like the way that Ole Miss played in that game without their best offensive weapon, their combination of offensive line, defensive line, quarterback, receiving core, like I think that they have the best- Backup quarterback too. I think they have the best pieces

at the most important spots of all these teams. And like, I don't know what the odds are, but if I were to place a futures bet I have they have the best pieces at the most important spots of all these teams and like I don't know what the odds are but if I were to place a futures bet on who wins the national title from somebody on the SEC I think that Ole Miss would be the best play so um and that's and that's part of the reason why I have them in as the eighth seed which would be the first of the last four in um and yeah so I think that sense. And I think that everything is in order. Yeah. Well, that would be the nine seed. The nine is the bad amount.

Nine, 10, 11. No, no, it's eight because 12 doesn't count. It's eight. And I got you. I let last four at larges. You're right. Yeah. So let's move to the state of Indiana.

We'll start with Notre Dame because we, we haven't talked much about Notre Dame. And I realized every time we bring up Notre Dame, there's move to the state of Indiana. We'll start with Notre Dame because we haven't talked much about Notre Dame. And I realize every time we bring up Notre Dame, there's somebody in the chat screaming about the Northern Illinois loss. I get it. It happened. It was a terrible loss. It will not keep them out of the playoff if they're 11 and 1. It won't.

I'm telling you that right now. Am I crazy, Ari already by saying that? No, no, I think that if you think Notre Dame's going at 10 and two, though, you're wrong. No, yeah, they're not going to 10. I've heard some podcasters David Oven talking about how 10 and two Notre Dame is going to the playoff like a month ago, and I thought he was crazy then. And it's certainly crazy now, especially considering the fact that all of their best games

ahead are against teams that have fallen apart. Like you could talk yourself into- They're playing an undefeated army. I don't think they've fallen apart. Army will not be propping up their schedule at the end of the year. I promise you. Even if Army's, if that's their only loss- Army's gonna help them.

Army's gonna help. If they beat Army- But Army's not gonna be the difference between making it and not making it as a only loss. Armies gonna help them. Armies gonna help. If they beat Armies. Armies not gonna be the difference between making it and not making it as a two loss team is what I'm saying. No, no. If they lose to USC, which is at best a five loss USC, we'll see if USC beats UCLA

because they could be a six loss USC at that point. If they lose to that team, they're out. They have nothing to gain from that game. Notre Dame. Yeah, because if they win, it's not a quality win. And if they lose, it's embarrassing. Like there's nothing to gain. Like the fact that I have to play it sucks. But again, they control their own destiny. And I feel like Notre Dame is in the same position as a team like SMU, even though they don't have to play a conference championship game, right? Like, don't

complain about your ranking. It doesn't matter where you're ranked to take care of your own business. You don't play in a conference championship game, right? Like, don't complain about your ranking. It doesn't matter where you're ranked. Take care of your own business. You don't play in a conference championship game. You're going to be in if you don't lose again. If you lose again, then you're a 10-2 team without a great win. So, you know, they came up short, or I mean, they got the Texas A&M win, but A&M has come up short, you know, recently. So that's kind of been nagged. USC isn't what we thought they were.

Notre Dame has a win over Louisville too, right? And they just lost in the most embarrassing way I've ever seen. That was a, let's commit 7 penalties in a row so that our opponent can kick a game-winning field goal. Losing on a field goal that was set up by a dead-ball personal foul with like 2 seconds left is the most infuriating thing I think I've ever seen a coach have to go through. Sorry about that. with like two seconds left is the most infuriating thing I think I've ever seen a coach have to go through. Sorry about that. Sorry, yeah. So like Notre Dame, I think is a very simple, simple thing here. Win the next few games and no one cares about NIU, just like we said it would. Lose another game, you're out of the picture. Now we move elsewhere in the state of Indiana. Let's head south to Bloomington. Indiana plays Ohio State. Obviously if Indiana beats Ohio state, there is no conversation.

Indiana's in the playoff. Doesn't even matter if they lose to Purdue, which they won't. They would then be in the, the, the big 10 championship game. It would be an Indiana Oregon big 10 championship game. No problem. But that's not what we expect to happen. It's obviously not what Vegas expects to happen because Ohio state's a double digit favorite in this game.

It's obviously not what Vegas expects to happen because Ohio State's a double digit favorite in this game. What does Indiana have to do in Columbus besides winning short of winning? This solidifies a place in the bracket. I think they've got to play a competitive game that makes people think they're good. And you know it when you see it. And I know that sounds stupid. I'm not going to put a number on it. I'm not gonna put a spread on, well, if they lose by 8 1 2 or less than they're in and

if they're out, if they lose by 11, they're out. I think you'll know it when you look at it. Look at Ari quoting Potter Stewart. I had no idea that you were a fan of great Supreme Court decisions and famous legal presidents. I don't even know what you're talking about. Potter Stewart wrote the opinion in the case that essentially established the definition of obscenity. And basically what he says is, I know it when I see it.

Oh, OK, well, and that fun fact by Andy Staples is brought to you by National Geographic. Still, I, still I don't even know what you're saying. We're trying to get that National Geographic sponsorship. The Sony magazine I think would be better for that one. No, but you know what I'm talking about though, Andy, when the committee sits down in the room and watches the game together as a family, they're putting their hands in the popcorn,

they got a few brews going, maybe a pie or two, and they're like, holy shit, this team is awesome, or this is really fun to watch, I'm entertained or you actually think that Indiana has a chance to win at halftime. Like I think that that's what they need. They cannot go to Ohio State and lose by 40, like or 30, like or they're out in my opinion. Yeah, they are out.

I think three touchdowns or more they're out. I think a one score game, suddenly you're comparing them to Penn State differently. And they're there when they get compared to Tennessee or Texas or Texas A&M or whoever, they're compared more favorably. Because the thing that's tricky about this is, is that people are asking, well, one score game, the spread is 10 and a half. Yeah.

So like they're expected to lose by double digit already. Yeah. So if you think they have to cover, I think that they can, I don't know who I like in that game yet. I haven't really thought about it, but we don't know, we don't have the context or the facts with Indiana

because of their crappy schedule to know just how good it is against the lead teams. Like this is definitely a reveal the answer to the question of who is Indiana like this weekend. And based on what they've done in the Big Ten, I think we can definitively say that they're very, very good. But it went from Indiana's having an awesome season, Look how awesome Kurt Signecki is doing to like talking about winning playoff games. So if you want to have that discussion and you want to be up here with the big boys talking about that, and Indiana has earned that, then when you play against a team that is typically existing in that realm on the road in November, you don't get your ass kicked. Like that's my expectation and you know who is just loving this because everybody's having the same conversation we're having. He loves this. Because he's going to go to his team, be like that none of these people think you're any good. They're talking about just don't just don't get blown out.

It's going to be I can't wait. I cannot wait for that game. Because you know, he's going to use this. But I want them to also know when they use the clip. And I guess if they get it from Twitter, it'll be cut off right. When you start clarifying what you mean, just so they can get the most likes. I think that they could win. I would not be shocked. I don't think it would be earth shattering if they beat Ohio state, but we were, you asked me, what do they have to do to get into the playoff?

And the basis of that answer is they cannot get their ass kicked. But I think they play, play a 10 point game. That's back and forth and competitive. And I think the more exciting, the better even, you know, because there have been games that Ohio State's beaten Penn State by by 11. But it felt like a 40 point game. It was just boring. Like I think that when whoever the Supreme Court Justice was, was it you like a 40 point game. It was just boring. Like, I think that when. Whoever the Supreme court justice was, was it, you said Ruth Bader Ginsburg? Stewart.

Oh, okay. Um, I got those confused. You'll know it when you see it.