Andy & Ari On3 - FINAL Preview ahead of Week 4’s BIGGEST MATCHUPS | Michigan-Nebraska, South Carolina-Missouri

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's episode of Andy and Ariane 3, we have more information about South Carolina quarterback Lenora Sellers. Will he be playing at Missouri this weekend? And how does that affect the line? We'll have John Ewing, Insights Manager from BetMGM, to talk about how something like that does affect a line one way or the other. And also, what about Sharon Moore, who will not be coaching Michigan against Nebraska this weekend? What does that do when it comes to the line? Plus, it is Dear Andy, Dear Ari Day. We have great questions about Texas, about Cal football,

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Starting point is 00:03:10 But we have to start where probably Ari will be starting almost every Thursday. And that is with the availability reports. In the SEC, they released them on Wednesday night. And they release them for SEC games. So there are actually only two SEC on SEC. games that they released reports for, but a couple of them had very interesting information. The biggest one, of course, South Carolina at Missouri, Lenora Sellers, South Carolina's quarterback, listed as questionable, which if you saw him come off against Vanderbilt and

Starting point is 00:03:41 you saw that line open for South Carolina, Missouri at 13 and a half, the thought was he wasn't going to play. Well, now it looks like he may be playing in this game, Ari. Yeah, and that's, I mean, I feel like South Carolina doesn't even have a chance to win if he doesn't play. Even if you send him out there with the week of light practice or not practicing at all, like he's your best opportunity. There are so many teams this year, Andy, that we have married elite level Superman-like performances at quarterback to how good the team is going to be. And some of those teams have gotten off to a pretty rocky start. And, you know, South Carolina now has their first loss of the season because, you know, I don't know if they would

Starting point is 00:04:22 have beaten Vanderbilt had he continued to play because they were losing pretty good before he went out. But Missou I think is a very good football team this year. Bo Perbula playing out of his mind. It's like, South Carolina has some dudes. We talked about it, but I don't know if they have enough to

Starting point is 00:04:37 win this game offensively if he doesn't play. So it'll be very interesting. And as you know, you said the concussion protocol usually last seven days. Well, that's the shortest it can go. And so that means, you wake up Sunday morning, you've got no symptoms, and then you

Starting point is 00:04:53 start the process and you get yourself you know, checked out and cleared later in the week, and then you're good to go. And I don't think they'd put him as questionable if they didn't feel like he's going to be able to play. So I'm looking at this now as if he's playing and starting. And the question is, what difference will that make? Because as you pointed out, against Vanderbilt, if he had been able to finish the game, I don't think it would have changed the result of the game. Maybe the margin of victory for Vandy would have been less.

Starting point is 00:05:23 But I don't think it changed these the ultimate result. Yeah, and, you know, there are a handful, maybe six or seven teams that, like, are undefeated right now, are 3 and O, and we're not 100% sure what they are, but they could be, in fact, like a top 10 team, you know, the teams that aren't being given a lot of credit right now or enough credit turn out to be like the thing we're debating about, much like Indiana turned out to be last year in November. Like, could Vanderbilt be one of those teams? I don't know. Could, could Missou be one of those? teams. Yeah. I mean, like, that's another one. So, you know, at the beginning of the week, 13 and a half points seem like a pretty massive spread in an SEC game, especially because I don't know if what we saw out of South Carolina is 100% what they are, who they're going to be this year. That doesn't mean that Missou's not better. But 13 and a half, especially if Lenora Sellers is playing, is a pretty nice little, you know, coup, and now it's 10 and a half.

Starting point is 00:06:19 So, you know, it does seem to me that Lenor's going to play, and I think that's great. And I hope that, because you don't want any team's season to get tanked by an injury, especially a concussion. It's just a bad luck injury. So, yeah. So we're going to have John Ewing, the Insights Manager for BenGM on, and I'm going to ask him about this. I'm going to ask him how that affects the line. How did this happen? What would this look like if Lenore Sellers was or wasn't playing or was definitely playing?

Starting point is 00:06:47 And I think it's going to help us get some perspective on it. Ari, question, after we talk to John, do you want to repick? Sure. The South Carolina, Missouri game. I mean, the split has changed. So I'm excited to hear what he has to say in terms of how much Lenore Sellers is valued. Because my thought process was always, Andy, that, you know, a quarterback might be worth four points. You know, this has moved three.

Starting point is 00:07:09 There's still some uncertainty. Let's, let's hear what he has to say about it. Yeah, let's do that. One more note before we go to John, though. The other SEC availability report that came out was for Auburn, Oklahoma. Auburn listing Eric Singleton, Jr., the receiver, is questionable. He had a hip pointer coming off the South Alabama game. They targeted him a bunch of that game. He was a play, I think was along the sideline where he kind of fell

Starting point is 00:07:35 awkwardly. So the question is, will he play? How much will he play? How much can he give them? It's a big difference for Auburn because clearly he was a big part of the game plan last week. Then also, if you look at the other side, though, Oklahoma's got a lot of offensive linemen on its availability report. Several who we knew were out. Michael, of Sussi, the left tackle listed as questionable. We think he's going to play. He sat out against Temple based on an injury that he had in the Michigan game, but I think he's probably going to play in this game, and I think they're pretty excited about seeing him again because he looked great against Michigan. This is somewhat funny to me, and not in a actual

Starting point is 00:08:13 comedic way, but like it's interesting that like Oklahoma feels healthy after last year and look at that injury report. It tells you how bad last year was, I think. Last year was an absolute bumper fire. But like it's a, you know, my hope is that everybody that's questionable or probable, you know, will play and that we'll get to see these two teams at their best. There's nothing more annoying to me than seeing a game where a key player's out and not really getting a sense for who they are. And I also don't like hypothetical discourse later in the season about what a team would have done had that player played. So the more information that we get as teams are their best, the better. And of course, you will hope for every young

Starting point is 00:08:50 man to be able to be healthy enough with all the work they put into play. So we'll track it. It looks like both of these teams are relatively healthy and should be, you know, setting up to be a great game. Before we talk to John Ewing from BEDMGM, I want to tell you about game, and we're talking about that Auburn, Oklahoma game. There are tickets for Auburn, Oklahoma, that you can get right now in game time in the low 100s. They're actually going to get below $100, but there's some really good seats that you can get in the low 100s right now. And that was shocking to me because this is a big, big game. This is, you know, Oklahoma, since they came to the SEC, the first year in the SEC, they did not have the year they wanted. They feel like they can this year.

Starting point is 00:09:32 This is a big SEC game. Auburn's playing really well so far this season. This is a big one. You can get in for a very good price. And we told you last week, watch those last minute deals. Watch those day of game deals. If you get a wild her and you want to drive to Norman and go see that game, do it. Another one, Michigan, Nebraska.

Starting point is 00:09:51 Also, some good seats in the hot. $100 to $200 range, which I wasn't sure if that was going to happen this season. And that's a pretty good deal because, again, Nebraska people very excited about what their team can be. And this feels like kind of a turning point game if they can win it. So good tickets available on game time. Price is getting even better by the day. Download the game time app and reading the code, Staples for $20 off your purchase terms

Starting point is 00:10:17 apply, of course. And those prices you see that I'm talking about, they're not throwing a bunch of fees on the end of that. If you see a ticket that says this costs $103, you will pay $103 for it. So that's the difference with GameTime is they're not attaching a bunch of fees at the end. So download GameTime app. Code Staples, $20 for first purchase terms apply. Ari, let us talk to John Ewing from BedmGM because there's a lot going on this week and a lot of places to go with him. We welcome John Ewing Insights Manager from BetMGM. And the last time John was on the show, he gave out a very good tip because this was coming off week one.

Starting point is 00:11:04 And he said, Texas and Clemson, which lost games in week one, they remained ranked in the top 10. And when that happens, those teams rarely cover. And guess what? Texas didn't cover against San Jose State. And Clemson didn't cover against Troy. So John, welcome back. Hey, it's always nice to come back on a positive note, right?

Starting point is 00:11:26 Yeah, exactly. The bad news is that we usually tank the people who come in the following week. So hopefully, if you're playing, I just fade yourself because we're the one, I don't know, we're the bad luck show. Or maybe I'm just terrible at it. I don't know what it is,

Starting point is 00:11:38 but I'm excited to hear what you have to say after coming off of a pretty rough week personally. So thanks for being here. I mean, I had a great week. So I'm happy to ask questions. But, John, I want to talk to you about the Lenora Sellers situation in the Missouri, South Carolina game because we saw him go out. That line opened at Missouri minus 13.5. Sellers is listed as questionable on the South Carolina availability report on Wednesday night. The line is at that point got down to about 10 and a half.

Starting point is 00:12:11 And so I'm curious how you guys handle this sort of information, how the books handle this information, because it's obviously something that's been happening a long time in the end. NFL, they've always given out detailed injury reports, you know, even going to, this is what this person did practice every day. How do you, with college, do you handle it the same way that information? And how do you adjust the line when you figure out a key player is or isn't going to play? Yeah, in general, the trading team tends to be conservative. They don't want to open themselves up to, you know, potential middles or opportunities where they don't react to. fast enough. So if there's a hint that a player's going to be out there, they're going to move that line immediately, which is what we saw. Mizzou open, like you said, 13, 30-5-point favorite.

Starting point is 00:13:00 Sellers now potentially available. That lines come down to 10 and a half. I was talking to the trading team. If sellers was just fully healthy, there was no concerns at all, we would still have Mizzou as a touchdown favorite at home. Interesting. That's a pretty big. That was what I was wondering. And yeah. Isn't that a pretty big discrepancy, though? Between him being out and where the line is now. Yeah, if you said it'd be a touchdown, you know, that's a touchdown difference. So that's kind of right.

Starting point is 00:13:30 That's what I'm talking about being a little conservative. They're like splitting the difference, right? Here's where it's open if he's out 100%. Here's seven is what if he were fully healthy. We don't know exactly what's going to happen. So we're right in the middle, right? The book's waiting to see. Right now, the action.

Starting point is 00:13:46 is on the Tigers to cover this line, but because it's still early and with so much uncertainty on this game, I wouldn't be surprised that that flipped and we get a little bit more balanced or even it starts leading towards South Carolina potentially, given your guys' reaction that you thought that the line was kind of high. Yeah, John, I thought the line just sort of baked in that he wasn't playing, like the opening line. I thought it was baked in that he's out. Yep, that that's what, again, back to being conservative. They're like, okay, boom, he's going to be the line's 13. If he was healthy, it's seven.

Starting point is 00:14:21 Right now it's right in the middle. A player that's as important to their team as Lenora's sellers is worth a touchdown in your eyes, in the book's eyes. Because I thought like really good players were to three, four points typically. Is it different for quarterback? Is it different when that quarterback is the most important player in your team? Yeah, it's that. It's also, you know, it's on the road here.

Starting point is 00:14:43 And, you know, something else. I was looking at Bill Conley's S&P Plus rankings. He has Mizzou as a top 10 team based off of just this year. So much of our expectations and, you know, are based on the top 25 preseason rankings and what teams did the year before. So, you know, I think a lot of people were off of Mizzou with the questions at quarterback coming into the season. But so far, they've looked great.

Starting point is 00:15:12 And this will be a really interesting game. If you guys remember, am a Missou fan. I was all over the Tigers against Kansas when we spoke last time. So if this line keeps coming down, I'm going to be on my Tigers again. So I feel pretty good, Andy, because I got 13 and a half in our head to head. So I thought I jumped at the value there and I've got three points of value here. Maybe I'll get even more if he ends up playing or the line moves a little bit. So I feel good about it. I'm not sure I feel good about South Carolina based on how they played against Vanderville because I just I just don't know even if sellers is healthy how they're

Starting point is 00:15:50 going to do but I want to move to a different game John we talk about quarterback and what he's worth what's a head coach worth and specifically a head coach who's not been able to be around the team all week so you know we back when Jim Harbaal was coaching Michigan he gets suspended for six different games in the 2023 season but he's coaching all week he just misses the games Jerome Moore has not been around the team all week. They're going to Nebraska. They're a two and a half point favorite on the road. Did that affect this line at all?

Starting point is 00:16:21 No, we don't tend to put a lot of the training team doesn't tend to put a lot of weight on stuff like that. It's still the program. There's still the assistant coaches. You know, everything should be more or less similar for these players. I get, you know, head coaches matter, but not as much as the players on the field. And that line opened, Michigan, minus three and a half. It has come down, as you said, Nebraska only two and a half point favorites at home. The Huskers are the most bet underdog to win outright on Saturday.

Starting point is 00:16:51 But I was looking at a fun trend in the Matt Rural era, Nebraska, 0 and 5 straight up and 1 and 4 against the spread versus ranked opponents. So a tough spot historically here in the short time period for Nebraska. Do you think they get off the snide, get a win against the top 25 team? Yeah, I think it's really interesting because in our eyes, as we talk about college football on the show and we're constantly, you know, breaking down the importance of different things. Like we would think conventionally that not having Sharon more on the sidelines would be a big deal.

Starting point is 00:17:20 And I wonder how much insight we can get from how gambling experts and bookmakers view it. The fact that it doesn't impact the line at all, I think is very interesting. And I wonder how much of a penalty Michigan is even basing without their coach. Yeah, again, it's quarterbacks, right? Keep it simple here. Quarterbacks are what matter the most. If you have multiple injuries to a certain specific or to a position group, you know, like two or three offensive linemen are going to miss a game,

Starting point is 00:17:51 then we'll adjust a number. But in general, it's the players and coaches. It just aren't going to move the needle for us. Yeah. Speaking of the needle moving, the line that has moved a little bit, and I find very interesting is Illinois, Indiana. It started out at four and a half, Indiana, the home favorite. Now Indiana is a six-point home favorite.

Starting point is 00:18:17 And, John, I find it hard to handicap this game because of the schedule Indiana has played so far. Illinois tried to challenge itself by going to Duke, but I'm not sure Duke's really holding up its end of the bargain there either. So I don't know anything about these teams. I'll admit, I really don't know how to handicap this. So what are you guys seeing that is pushing this line this way? It's some sharp action because overall the betting splits are pretty even. But some sharp action on the Hoosiers, like you said, four and a half to five.

Starting point is 00:18:52 I was looking up some more trends for you guys. I know everyone loves them. Yeah. Yeah. The coach, Kurt Signetti, 21 and 9 against the spread as a favorite. That's a 70% win rate, including 9 and 3 against the spread with. Indiana. So historically, he's done well in the spot. We'll see, though, again, nothing crazy from lopsided action, just some early sharp action on Indiana to move that number. Although

Starting point is 00:19:18 that's not really anything significant necessarily, four and a half to five and a half. You know, not a key number, doesn't move across three or seven or six. So just kind of in that middle, that middle zone. John, we were at the Virginia Tech South. Carolina game at the beginning of the year. And Andy, do you remember when there was that, like, grab-ass safety in the second quarter? Yes. And now we have, like, these, like, two-point conversions and missed extra point attempts

Starting point is 00:19:46 costing teams games. In your opinion, how much are key numbers changing in college football, if at all? And what do you think those key numbers are now? Are they still three and seven? Yeah, three, six, seven. I mean, it's, you know, 10, of course. It is everything, we have not. made any adjustments based on the key numbers tend to still stay at the historical ones.

Starting point is 00:20:13 So, John, we talked earlier this season about Texas, Arch Manning. Ari and I did a whole show on Arch Manning being the preseason high as been favorite. That's the one where Ari said he can't imagine Arch not going to New York. We were, of course, imagining that now, unless Arch has some good Broadway tickets. But I was reading one of your latest trends emails. And so Arch, I believe, still has the biggest handle for Heisman futures. Texas still has the biggest handle for national title futures. Are the books just sitting there watching like the U-TEP game going,

Starting point is 00:20:54 ah, we're going make out on this one, boys? Well, Archer's struggles correlate to Texas struggling. where we've seen it the most is against the spread. They're 0 and 3 to start the season. The over is 0 and 3 as well. So, yeah, all those are favorable outcomes for the book. And right now, Texas, getting the most money to win the national championship, Arch getting the most money to win the Heisman.

Starting point is 00:21:22 Neither of those look great at the moment. But Texas, it's a long season. There's a group of teams that are right there in that contender spot. It's, it's Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, LSU, kind of all in a tier of themselves, all in that 10 to 1 or better. We need more information before we really start dropping those odds. But Arch as a Heisman, that ship is sailing, it looks like. Oh, man. You think it's sailed?

Starting point is 00:21:52 He's out to 31 right now. But it's a brand name program. He's a brand name in himself. A couple great outings. And he could be right back up. up there. Yeah, I almost feel like that's a good value bet. I don't know. I don't think it happens, but I do think that like if Texas goes out and wins a bigger game or two in the SEC that like what happened last weekend, although the talk of the town will be completely forgotten.

Starting point is 00:22:20 It will be. How much money do your employers make off people like Ari who cannot let go of someone being a five-star recruit? Well, just to, you know, you thought you had good odds when you got them at nine to one he was a six to one favorite before the season started and now you look at the live numbers and you know you're like 30 to one what's going on here i thought i you know closing line value already yeah that it's tough for anyone that's sitting on an arch ticket but again don't tear them up you never know what's going to happen well the arch ticket at eight to one before the season wasn't great value for the type of bet that it was so like that that if you took that then you were on my team which is there's no way he's not going and if it's the hard

Starting point is 00:23:03 largest handle it looks like my dumb-ass take isn't pretty popular one so um you know we'll see and andy when john's gone we're going to have a conversation about you airing me out on part of my take too we're going to have to talk about that oh we will definitely have that conversation because i have a mailbag question where a guy is calling sark a fraud he gave us a send us a whole pdf any and he made a chart with appendices that go back to like jake locker and keith price so yeah we'll we'll have that conversation for sure i had another gambling question for you um you know on handles uh i think that it's interesting like the numbers of like yeah the largest handle on texas and arched and the heisman and all that stuff but obviously those handles are predicated mostly on

Starting point is 00:23:48 preseason action i assume how long does it take if it does at all for actual handles to shift in terms of how they're weighted based on in season action and do you anticipate like Texas and teams that get off to slow starts like this, moving down the list a little bit as other people jump off onto other directions. Yeah, it really depends on, okay, so what happens on the field, clearly. We see the number adjusting on arch, but the trading team is so good at adjusting the other, you know, mostly quarterbacks, right, to win the award, that you're not going to have a long shot stay that way for a while.

Starting point is 00:24:27 That's usually what draws attention, right? It could be a quarterback that was, you know, 50 to 1 or longer. They have a good game and then players jump on them. And that's where they, because they see value. But the training team is on top of it so fast. It does take a few weeks, usually to start seeing the percentages shift more. You're right. There's so much action that comes in before the season begins because everyone wants to get their national championship in Heisman vets in.

Starting point is 00:24:52 Yeah. And teams don't move as passes Heismans, right? Because teams, like Texas didn't lose to UTAP, you know, and I still think that they're probably one of the five most likely teams to win the national title. I don't know if you're with me on that, Andy, but if I had my life depended on it, I'd still would put them in that group. I'm not sure I would, but I mean, it's interesting, John, because Penn State is the favorite right now. And that's a team we don't really know anything about other than, you know, Villanova was like the worst beat in the history of the world. Yeah. All right. So these numbers early in the season don't move for teams because generally most of them are playing a soft schedule, right? That's what Penn State's face. Nevada, FIU, Villanova, nothing to get excited about. They won all those games rather easily. But next week, this is the best game coming up. Penn State, Oregon, and Happy Valley. It's going to be a wide out. It's at night. We have Penn State's going to open. three or three and a half point favorites in this game.

Starting point is 00:25:59 So we're going to, you know, you feast on cupcakes and now you got to, you know, actually show up and play a game. We'll see what they're made of. This is a game where the odds will move after, right? One of these teams is going to take a big jump forward. The other one's going to see their odds sync. I'm not really sure where the action is going to come in here. Likely Oregon, just because they've maybe looked a little bit better out of the gate

Starting point is 00:26:23 and getting, you know, three or three and a half points, fills. like a steal. Wow, all right. We got early lines for next week already. Thank you, John. Appreciate it. No problem. Thanks for being.

Starting point is 00:26:38 We'll talk to you again in a few weeks, and we'll see how everything has moved since then. I can't wait. Hey, I wanted it way real fast before I go. You had off there we had talked about a game that's kind of flying under the radar. Oh, yeah, yeah. So typically it's always the top 25 teams

Starting point is 00:26:56 and games that get the most action, right? We see this every week, every year. But Arkansas and Memphis is a game that we're seeing movement on. Memphis, a very soft 3-0. Arkansas lost their last game to Ole Miss in a shootout. They were driving late to take the go-ahead touchdown, but they fumble. So they lose a game, but they open a six and a half point favorites on the road. It's already went up to seven and a half, and nearly 70% of money is on the hogs to cut.

Starting point is 00:27:26 So maybe a little bounce back spot here against a, you know, a quote unquote undefeated team. But Arkansas betters think can get it done as a road favorite. I am very intrigued by that game. I pick Memphis to cover in this game. I don't know how soft three-no is. I mean, we thought Troy did okay and, you know, at Clemson. And then Memphis pretty much controlled the game at Troy last week. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:27:53 I don't know if everybody's watching that, but I did. So, yeah, I can't wait for this because Arkansas is scoring about 45 points a game and don't know if Memphis is going to be able to slow them down. My question is, can Arkansas keep this up? And if they can, they're going to be pretty dangerous in the SEC. So, John, thank you. As a comp, are you? I mean.

Starting point is 00:28:12 No. No. Although Arkansas, Clemson, Arkansas is definitely better at scoring than Clemson. I don't know about defending, but we're going to have to watch a little more Ole Miss to figure that out too. So, John, thank you so much. All right. Thanks for having me on, guys. That is John Ewing from Bed-MGM and Ari. Are you ready to repick South Carolina and Missouri? It is now Missouri minus 10 and a half. John Ewing just told us that it would be seven and a half if Lenora Sellers were definitely playing fully healthy, had not gone out of the Vandy game last week.

Starting point is 00:28:52 does that change how you would pick this game? Well, I'm not going to pick change. I think that you might want. And you had who first? I had South Carolina first. So what you're telling me is I picked 13 and a half. So if the spreads down to 10 and a half, that means I might have three to four points of closing line value.

Starting point is 00:29:10 And I might end up losing still, but I'll take the three or four points, especially now with the information that Lenoris is going to potentially play. So for you, I think we need to create. some ground rules here, because you already laid the 13 and a half. Yeah. If you pick the game, what, like, line are you subject to? Well, I think I'm still subject to what are we picked on Monday.

Starting point is 00:29:32 I think the rules are the rules. So, you know, I don't get to suddenly take these three points, though I will say I feel more confident now. Because, again, I'm not sure it would have made a difference last week against Vanderbilt. And the way Vanderbilt was running the ball against South Carolina, like, have you watched, I know you've watched Missouri this season. I know you've seen a hearty 8.1 yards of carry. Jamal Roberts, 7.7 yards of carry. Missouri is a machine right now. Has been running the ball so well and so

Starting point is 00:30:06 effectively that 8.1 yards of carry seems low. Like if you've been watching Missou play, it feels like more than that. So like that is, what does he have? He has like almost 500 yards or three games. Yeah, five. And five rushing touchdowns too. So, you know, and I saw that he was kind of creeping up a little bit too on some of the Heisman, you know, people looking for. I mean, these aren't Ashton Genty at the beginning of last year numbers, but they're close. Yeah. Turns out Ashton Genty was really good. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:30:36 So, like, the thing that I don't like about the repick, now that I'm thinking about it a little bit more, is that you could conceivably go jump on South Carolina. If you jump on South Carolina here, then you only get 10 and a half. You don't get a nice middle. Yeah. But, no, you don't get the 13 and a half. That ship is saved. So if I were you, I would stick with where you are. I am sticking with Missouri.

Starting point is 00:30:56 I like, again, me taking Missouri minus 13 and a half, and I said it when we picked, I would have picked this if Sellers was playing, if I knew Sellers was playing at the time. If you knew Sellers was healthy and playing, you would lay 14. I am not confident in South Carolina after seeing them the last week. That was, listen, 19 games at Williams-Brice Stadium, they don't get beat. like that. That's a bad sign. Game is a lot of points, Andy.

Starting point is 00:31:27 We'll see. To get their ass kicked again, then, you know, that's a really, really tough break for a team that, you know, thought they could compete for the SEC this year.

Starting point is 00:31:36 So, we'll see. I'm not giving up on South Carolina yet. Maybe their aliens will show up and prove me right. But I'm happy we didn't make it confusing. We stuck on different sides. And, you know, my hope is that South Carolina will cover the spread so I can get closer to you,

Starting point is 00:31:50 I'm being humiliated every week. I have a feeling you're going to come back in the picks. I have the utmost faith in your... Not for I beat you in trivia yesterday. Wait, maybe that you just keep beating me in trivia and I keep beating you in the picks and we've just... Maybe it's a freaky Friday thing. We've just switched bodies.

Starting point is 00:32:07 I don't know what happened. Yeah, but I'd much rather... I haven't been craving filet of fishes, so I can't really attest to that, but... Was the last time you had one? It's been probably 20 years? yeah but we're gonna change that you know like i know that like our relationship is always like i'm teaching you about this restaurant on cc land and i'm giving you ideas on how to like you kind

Starting point is 00:32:31 of been like a mentor to a certain extent to me i have never had a fillet of fish i've eaten a lot of fillet of fish a long time okay you have no idea what you're missing i'm pretty sure it'll taste exactly like it did 20 years ago and that's probably the problem you remembered it being amazing you not 20 years is enough time there's people who don't remember like important information about their life from 20 years ago. That's me. Yeah. So I'm, like, you need to, I'm going to go and I'm going to be, and I want to be with you

Starting point is 00:32:59 because there is a quality control issue with it. I'm going to make sure you get a fresh one and you're going to eat it. Just take a bite. And if you don't like it, I'll eat the rest of it. But just take a bite. Like what, all of a sudden you're like adverse to trying something. No, I have no problem trying it. I just, you know, I might want to spend those calories on something better.

Starting point is 00:33:16 One bite won't kill you. You'll be fine. You can do an extra nine mile run the next day. and then you'll be in there. Exactly. All right. All right. We have to answer some questions because the people have been fantastic. Oh, before we go into the questions, and I know this is bad. I'm sorry. Tyler Shoemaker, who comes on every other week, gave me his. Oh, yeah, yeah. And I just wanted to provide those for people who were interested because Tyler is very good at what he does. Some weeks are good, some weeks are bad. Well, they're never really bad, but usually he's really,

Starting point is 00:33:50 on point. So I'm going to provide one of his bigger plays. These are the three best. He puts out like 30 plays a week. These are the ones where the numbers are most, you know, telling. And he has Nebraska Money Line as one of those three, which I thought was very interesting.

Starting point is 00:34:06 That's one of the games of the week. NC State plus three and a half. NC State. I'm a big CJ Bailey guy, so I'm very, very intrigued by that. So that's a pretty it's an important in-state game.

Starting point is 00:34:22 And then for you crazy people out there who like to bet on group of five stuff, U-TEP minus six against ULM are the three that he is most, you know, numbers-wise, confident in. But like Nebraska guys, come on. It's your chance. Sure chance. Well, let's start there with the questions. I was going to start with the Texas one, but since we're talking Nebraska, Michigan

Starting point is 00:34:45 already, let's start there. and actually, well, we'll start in the state of Nebraska. You ready? Because we have to talk about Omaha steaks. Do you like how I did that? Yes, love it. So, Ari, I made the ground tenderloin burgers last night. Oh, my God.

Starting point is 00:35:12 Look at that. And my daughter's like, so what is the difference? Like, what's the difference to this and, and what we got at the grocery store. And I said, okay, you know, like what we call a filet mignon. So you take the tenderloin. You have that large strip of meat that comes from the loin of the cow. And if you cut it into giant chunks, you know, we call that flay mignon.

Starting point is 00:35:34 I was like, imagine they just feed that tenderloin into the meat grinder and we make burgers out of it. And she's like, oh, I understand now. When you take a bite into this thing, you hear the angel sing. is amazing. And of course, that is available to you from Omaha Steaks right now. So when you're making your box from Omaha Steaks, and right now it's 50% off site-wide during the red hot sale, put the beef tenderloin burgers in there. I'm telling you right now, you will not regret it. They are amazing. You put the Omaha Steaks seasoning on it. You throw it on the grill. You know how you like it, you know, depending on where on your palm for medium, for medium rare, for medium well.

Starting point is 00:36:15 incredible. And of course, all the other excellent cuts of meat from Omaha Steaks, whether it's New York Strips, it's the chicken breasts, the pork chops, all of it is amazing. Right now, 50% off site wide during the red hot sale. If you use the code Andy and Ari, so A-N-D-Y, A-N-D-A-R-I, you get an extra $35 off. That's Omaha Steaks.com, 50% off-site-wide during the red hot sale. Code is Andy and R-N-A-R-E. A-N-D-Y, A-N-D-A-R-I, extra 35 bucks off at Omaha State. All right, let us drive about 50 miles west to Lincoln. And we will answer Nathan's question.

Starting point is 00:37:01 Nathan is a Nebraska fan. Dear Andy, am I crazy, or is the Michigan-Nabraska game a season-defining game for both teams? Not in that we will look back after the season as being the make-or-break, but that this game is going to tell us who each of these teams actually are. I feel like we're both good this year, but clearly neither of us are in the top tier. Yet I feel like this game will tell us

Starting point is 00:37:24 which of the two is in the B tier and which is going to finish the year disappointed. Okay, this is a good question for Nathan. And I think it's a fair question. Nathan obviously is a Nebraska fan, but I think he's kind of reading this in a very objective way where I do think the winner of this game is probably due for bigger and better things

Starting point is 00:37:45 and the losers of this game probably will not feel great by the end of the season because I do think it'll portend how the rest of the year is going to go. I actually think that this is a much more I don't know if I should say this, but I think this is how I feel.

Starting point is 00:38:00 I think that this game is much bigger for Nebraska than it is for Michigan. I think because Michigan is kind of probably already come around to the idea or the notion that this isn't going to be the type of year that you know they're going to go win the national title and you know i think that they know that they're still in somewhat of a transition they know that they have some deficiencies but offensive skill

Starting point is 00:38:23 they know that their quarterback is very young i mean when you think about like where nebraska is in the position they are very much arrived that you know dylan raola is going to be a much improved product from what he was a year ago we have this game at home we have a very uh important uh you know game to prove that we aren't just a team that might go eight and four this year like they have a lot of emotions writing on this i think that nebraska is going to figure out who they are far more than michigan is i think we already kind of know what michigan might be if nebraska can't be what we think uh you know michigan is then mich that's nebraska finding something out does that make sense i don't know i i feel like nebraska the loss will be far more depressed than michigan fans

Starting point is 00:39:07 would be especially at home well i i'm just just very excited about learning what this Nebraska team is. Because we saw them against Cincinnati. It was not the easiest win for them, but they did win it. And it was one of those games that I feel like the Nebraska of the Scott Frost era, the Nebraska early in the Matt rule era, that they just didn't win those games. And it feels like they've turned a little bit of a corner there. This is the next corner to turn. This is the toss-up game. This is the one that, you know, could kind of go either way. And I feel like that's, that's the next step for them. And it's obviously a big name, name brand program that

Starting point is 00:39:52 they're playing. The last time Michigan was in Memorial Stadium, they got rocked. This could be a very cathartic moment for Nebraska fans, for Nebraska players. It's a big game. And I agree with you, it's bigger for Nebraska than it is for Michigan. If Michigan wins this, like, Nebraska is going to find out on Saturday if they actually are better than most of the teams on their schedule. You know, like this is, they're going to know on Saturday whether this team is set up to make a run at the college football playoff or if this is just another, well, let's hope to get to X number of wins so we can feel better about our trajectory. Like, there's only so much trajectory talk that a program can handle before you want the results. And I know we're only in year three. You think about the year three with Matt Rule stuff.

Starting point is 00:40:42 You think about where Dylan Raola is in his progression. He's in year two. I thought that he played quite well, at least in spurts in his freshman year. And now, you know, has a chance to prove that he is making that sophomore jump. Their schedule is as manageable as it possibly could be. They're already three and O. They beat a big 12 team in the week one. You see Penn State and USC there later on the list.

Starting point is 00:41:03 But if they beat Michigan, they could beat Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern. I think USC. We don't know what USC is completely yet, but they could conceivably win that game. UCLA for sure, Penn State and Iowa. Even if you're 10 and 2, you have a chance with a Michigan win at the end of the year. If Michigan's 8 and 4, 9 and 3 to be impressive enough to make one of those final spots. And I don't think they want to be like, well, if we win eight games, that's good enough. Like, I think they finally just want to break through and be good.

Starting point is 00:41:29 And I feel like they think that they are. That's the thing. You know, we, I spent a lot of time on the Husker online message board this week, Andy. and I want to make a bigger point of doing that because I do think that it changes your perspective of how fan bases are feeling when you actually get in there and hear how they speak and what they think.

Starting point is 00:41:48 And Nebraska fans, Andy, think they're good. They're not in, well, we need to win, you know, six, seven, eight, nine games this year to prove that we're on the right track. They think they're good. This is, they're past that point. Yeah, yeah. So thinking that you're good is fun,

Starting point is 00:42:06 proving that you're good is Nirvana. right so this is a chance and michigan's not great so it's not just beating a name brand team about their coach this is like beating a beatable team that is pretty good that shows you that you're better than that yeah now you mentioned mixing it up with the nebraska fans on the huster online message board the nebraska fans are this week's full-time fans of the week you know we we're sponsored by medello medello rewards the college football fans because Medello is the ultimate reward for being a college football fan. And the Nebraska fans really deserve this full-time fans of the week award.

Starting point is 00:42:47 They're probably the full-time fans of the century because this is going to be consecutive sellout number 406. It dates back to 1962. They've sold at Memorial Stadium for every home game since 1962. This is number 406 and it might be a balloon game. Now, it used to be that every Nebraska home game, each fan got a red balloon. And after Nebraska's first touchdown, you released the balloon and they all went up in the air. That stopped in 2022 for very practical reasons.

Starting point is 00:43:20 There was a helium shortage. And they brought it back in 24, but not for every game. They said basically it'll be certain games. Well, if you look at what Nebraska football put out on Instagram, when they announced the kickoff time for this game, I see a lot of balloons in the photo that they put on Instagram. So this could be a balloon game as well. Four hundred six consecutive sellout, balloons. Like this is, this is big, big, big, big.

Starting point is 00:43:49 And the Nebraska fans, they are the most loyal, the most dedicated. So they absolutely deserve to be the Medello full-time fans of the week. And Ari, we talked about this. This is what we were just saying. for them they've suffered through a lot a win like this a win in this game a win against this kind of opponent this is what they've been waiting for this is what they've been craving and it's almost the inverse or the other side of the coin of what michigan's fans went through now michigan wasn't as bad at times as nebraska when you remember when nebraska

Starting point is 00:44:26 you know before the scott frost era they were a nine and three team most years it's not like they were ever terrible. Like Michigan went through a 25 year period where they knew that they had a pretty good program and of course one of the best fan bases in the country, but hadn't really won anything. And it was a prolonged buildup to finally breaking through. And then when Michigan won the national championship, their fans felt an emotion that they hadn't felt for more than two decades. Now, Nebraska's, I think, is a more extensive layoff because it's been a long time since the mid-90s, but like Michigan's last national title was 97. What was Nebraska's

Starting point is 00:45:03 95? 97. They split it. We split it. That's right. I'm an idiot. Maybe it's their chance. I don't know if I think that they're going to win the national title this year, but it is their chance. No, but if they beat Michigan, you just laid

Starting point is 00:45:19 it out. You just laid out the whole scenario. If they beat Michigan, they are allowed to dream much bigger than they ever have been in recent memory, like, since the Pellini era, essentially. At least the country, when's the last time the entire country, national media fans, everybody accepted that Nebraska was good. The Pellini era.

Starting point is 00:45:44 Yeah. Which ended in 2014. There was a faux, faux Pellini account, remember that? He's still around. He's still around. We've met him. We've drank with it. We drank with him once.

Starting point is 00:45:57 He's a good dude. He tweeted one year, September 3rd from that account. God damn it, it's not Bo Pellini Day. That was because it was 9-3, and I thought that was really. 9-3, that's right. But, you know, now Nebraska would love to be 9-3 on the way to something bigger. They don't want their destination to be 9-3. I think this year could be 9-3, 10, and 2 as a way to get bigger.

Starting point is 00:46:22 Yeah, it's a point in the journey. It's not the destination. So congratulations from Nebraska fans, Medello, full-time fans of the week, crack one open. Well, crack them open on Saturday before that game. Get yourself ready, responsibly, of course. And who knows, maybe you're going to be celebrating with them after that game. Ari, our next question. Well, we'll ask Jake's question.

Starting point is 00:46:48 We'll go through his manifest a little bit, but then you have a complaint that you need to air out with me. You have some issues with me that we need to take care of. I think, yeah. Okay, all right. Well, we'll start with Jake. Jake's question, after listening to the media pump Texas all season, the start of the year has honestly been the best case scenario for Texas haters like me. So I decided to put together what I'm calling my, Texas is a fraud program manifesto. It's a full breakdown of why Sark isn't a QB whisper, why the schedule has been a gift, how the offense keeps collapsing, and how all those recruiting stars keep turning into transfers or missed opportunities.

Starting point is 00:47:24 At the end, I included an appendix with all the numbers laid out in tables, so it's easy to see the decline in black and white. Take this as my certified hater's guide to Texas football. I'll gladly accept my role as an official contributor to On 3 and the pod with this one. Curious to hear your thoughts. So Jake sent us four pages of Manifesto. Here are some of the tables, if you're watching on the YouTube. It's got Quinn Ewer's development under Sark. I mean, he goes to Jake Locker and Keith Price.

Starting point is 00:47:54 This is actually a very well-written manifesto. Most manifestos are, Andy. Crushes Steve Sarkesian's performance as the Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator following Kyle Shanahan. He crushes Sark as the Alabama offensive coordinator. We'll have to find a way to post this thing so you can read the whole thing. But basically, he's comparing Sark to Brian Dable's performance and Mike Loxley's performance and Bill O'Brien's performance as the Alabama offense coordinator.

Starting point is 00:48:27 I'll read you the bottom of that section. The pattern is clear. Dable, Loxley, Sark, O'Brien. The results were basically the same. Sark did not elevate Alabama. Alabama elevated Sark. I love college football so much because I've never thought.

Starting point is 00:48:43 I don't know if this guy, yeah. I don't know if this guy's an Oklahoma fan, a Texas A&M fan, or if he just has it in for Texas, I don't even know. Yeah, you know, the thing that is always interesting to me and to latch on to the, like he was the offensive coordinator for Bama in 2020, right? Yes.

Starting point is 00:48:59 Like, how many offensive coordinators in the country in your opinion could have won the national title with Devante Smith on their team? Wait, whoa, whoa, hold on. Devante Smith. Yeah. Jerry Judy. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:49:14 Jalen Waddle. Wasn't Henry Ruggs on that team? I don't know if Henry Ruggs was already gone. I got to have to look that, but okay, Ruggs was on that team. All right. So, yeah. What you want about Mac Jones, but he was a first round draft pick.

Starting point is 00:49:28 Yeah. You know. I think Waddle was hurt a lot of that season. But the point stands, they were loaded, loaded. Yeah. So that's always, but I thought this before the question. Like, I always thought, well, that was kind of the year where Steve Sarkesian, like, was back. It's like, look at this guy's offensive mastermind pre-snap motions that keep defenses off.

Starting point is 00:49:49 2019 was, 2019 was Ruggs. Bugs, okay. And Judy. So it was Devante Smith, John Mechie, Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle was hurt for a lot of the year. But he also had Najee Harris. Like there was a lot. They were loaded. They were loaded. Yeah. And their incoming recruiting class in 2020 included Bryce Young, Jace McClellan, Will Anderson, um, Quedarius Robinson, Brian Branch. But I don't think he recruited Will Anderson. But yes. No, I know. I'm just saying part of being a good offensive coordinator is easy to be celebrated when your whole team is good. I mean, that's just the point on me. Javon Baker was on the team, and I'm not even sure he played a snap on that year. So my point is just that was the year he got his reputation back.

Starting point is 00:50:35 And I think that if you go look at numbers and all these different things, you can come up to any sort of conclusion that you want about anything, right? Like, if you come to the solution before you look at the numbers and not let the numbers lead you to the conclusion, you can manipulate those numbers to look at any way you want. And here's the thing. And I'm going to push back on our guy, Jake, here, in a very meaningful way. Sark's not a fraud. Sark is not a fraud.

Starting point is 00:51:02 Texas is not a fraud because Sark has done what the predecessors, Tom Herman, Charlie Strong, the end of Mack Brown at Texas, he's done what they couldn't do. Like he's winning the games they didn't win. He's developing those five stars into draft picks. So no, he's not a fraud. Absolutely not. Has he gotten them where they want to go ultimately yet? No.

Starting point is 00:51:29 Will he do it if he keeps doing what he's doing? Yes. They're going to get there eventually. I think that the results from Texas, even if you want to say it's a one-off year, it hasn't been. It happened two years in a row. Playoff two years in a row.

Starting point is 00:51:43 Deeper run last year with the expanded playoff. Yeah, this is not a fluke. None of this is a fluke. And like the way that Texas played Ohio State last year with what you saw from Ohio State against everybody else. I think you can make a legitimate case that Texas was the second best team in the country last year, even if they lost to Georgia twice. You know, Georgia was, you know, a team that lost to Notre Dame fairly early.

Starting point is 00:52:06 But I think Texas, I could hear the case for it's all I'm saying. So, yeah, I feel like Texas is a team, and I would be very interested to hear the manifestos. reason. How do we arrive at the manifesto? Who do we root for? It has to be OU or Texas A&M, right? Yeah, or it could just be like some like bitter Oregon fan who's been holding on to this for 10 years, which would be amazing because that's college football. I don't know. I don't know, but I feel like I'm around Texas fans a lot.

Starting point is 00:52:44 And there aren't a lot of Texas fans who are displeased with what's going on right now. Right? Like they are. I mean, right now, And I actually think, too, that they're not immediately happy with what's going on at this very moment. But again, they've only lost one game, and it was at Ohio State. Like, everything they have is in front of them. Maybe they don't wind up being as good as they were hyped to be this year. But I do think from an overall program trajectory standpoint, they're exactly where they need to be. Exactly.

Starting point is 00:53:14 I actually think that the Texas fans that I've interacted with, Andy, and quite a bit of them, you'd be surprised. one of my best friends. You live in Dallas. I'm not surprised one bit. Is, nah, give a time, he'll be fine. It's not,

Starting point is 00:53:29 everybody else is saying the sky's falling. Everybody else is dancing in the rain of tears. The tears aren't coming from Austin. I think Austin people are kind of confused. They're a little bit upset with the way that it's looked so far, but I don't think that they're under the illusion that this guy's going to suck for two years. In fact, if anything,

Starting point is 00:53:47 I think that it has helped recalibrate their expectations. into the sense of like, hey, yeah, maybe this year we won't win the national title, but holy crap, next year we're going to be really good. The Florida game in Red River will give us so much better of a gauge of where they're at. You and I are going to Red River together.

Starting point is 00:54:10 We'll come out of that game with a much better idea of what Texas is this season. Yeah, and I cannot wait for that game. And I also know, too, Andy, that I saw enough out of, I think Ohio State is the, best team in college football right now. Okay. And that might look, that might age poorly, but they're averaging like 40 something points a game and offense and allowing five points

Starting point is 00:54:29 on defense per game. They played Ohio State for four quarters, even without being able to get a first down for three of them. So like to me, like what do you take more, what do you take more away from? Like struggling against UTEP with their heads up their ass or playing the number one team on the country in the opener and playing a four quarter game with them. Like I don't know if I think Texas is cooked. In fact, I think it's more than possible that they beat Florida, they beat Sam Houston, they beat Oklahoma, they beat Kentucky and Mississippi State, and then there's a really big game in Vanderville on November 1st, and like we're back at it. Like, I just do not want to overreact, much like I didn't want to overreact to what happened

Starting point is 00:55:08 to Notre Dame with NIU last year. Those games happened. They're bad. Arch Manning was terrible. I'm not dismissing it. But I think that it. And remember, Texas lost to Ohio State. And I think If you think that, like, Arch Manning is definitely just going to suck forever after that, like, you're short-sighted. And that's also- Tell me why I'm a backstabber, by the way. Yeah, you're not a- I think part of it is, like, I appreciate it. But then the other part of it, it's like, so you're going part of my take with one of the largest sports podcast on the face of the earth, which, by the way, I think I would freaking crush on if I ever get on that show. So you and I, I'll talk to. Big Cat and PFT. I think you and I should just go to Chicago, do it in person one of these, one of

Starting point is 00:55:54 these times. I just want to do the, I mean, I don't have to be on the show. I just want to sit in the gambling pit with the boys for all day and just hammered. I know. That's, that's what we get a whole day. Maybe, maybe we just get to hang with T. Bob for a little while because our friend T. Bob Aber works there now. Yeah, I would very much. Smith works there. Like, it'd be awesome. I think from a personality perspective, I think I could make it rain on that show. But you have been on going on that show and you're very good at it and you should be on that show and when you do go on the show every year I appreciate that you name drop me one time because it's like hey it's my guy you know and I appreciate that that said after I get out of the appreciation phase oh boy here we go unload I get to provide

Starting point is 00:56:35 this massive part in my take audience with one take and you give me like a terrible take you tell them that I said it was a relative lock that's the one thing that you take from our entire relationship and bring to part in my takes audience, Andy? What are you doing to me, man? Ari, they opened the segment with me on DJ Lagway. I know, but you weren't alone on Lagway. I was alone on the arch thing. Like, I was- You were not alone on that.

Starting point is 00:57:00 You just were the most extreme. Yeah, no, but you and I locked arm and arm with Lagway all summer, dude. Like, every single thing that anybody could say to you out. I'd throw you under the place on that one. I let, I just took all the bullets on that one. Yeah, you did. You did. And I appreciate you saying my name on the show.

Starting point is 00:57:16 lot of people that I don't listen to it and they got a kick out of it. But like also, hey, my co-host on the other show that I hope that people listening to this show will listen to is an idiot. Like, that's also. No, I don't know if you notice in the intro, Big Cat mentioned that because we are back together, it has become one of his favorite shows. That's good to hear. And thanks, Batat.

Starting point is 00:57:37 I appreciate that. And you obviously are a podcasting genius and legend. And we obviously appreciate our relationship with you and, you know, I have a lot of respect and tremendous respect for what PMT is and is becoming. So, yeah, that'd be great. Have me on, please. I'll make it rain. I'll use it.

Starting point is 00:57:53 I think we need to both go, like, we go to Chicago in person and then maybe go visit Notre Dame or something like that. Like, that's, that be great. We'll just get it set up. I've never invited myself to a party, but I will, this is a party. It's a hell of a party to invite yourself to. I defended the founder of Barstool in a column on On 3th, like two and a half weeks ago. remember when the whole banning thing was happening like come on guys this is kind of soft like let's let's be

Starting point is 00:58:21 honest like he's playing a character important he's on your team yeah he tweeted the story so like i think i carried some favor with the barstool people but like it's like come on this is college football and the number one villain of your team is coming and you don't want them to go like what are we talking about this is what the sport is supposed why would you not want them to go exactly exactly All right. Intuitive to what you want. Okay. Let's go to Ryan's question.

Starting point is 00:58:48 Because this is one where we may have gone one direction too far, and it's time to reel ourselves back in. You ready? If Ty Simpson continues to play at this, the level he has the last two weeks, does he have a chance at the Heismund? All right. Let's, okay.

Starting point is 00:59:07 We're going to slow down on Ryan. And then we're going to realize, us, the other direction. Ryan, it was ULM and Wisconsin. So let's not go crazy. But that said, Ty Simpson was awesome against ULM in Wisconsin. And I would argue that for as much burying of Alabama as we did after the Florida State loss, I don't recall us burying Ty Simpson all that much.

Starting point is 00:59:35 No, I don't know either. I think the question, and you could even maybe translate this a little bit to Arch, because I think Arch might be more cooked than Ty because Arch had a bad game against Ohio State on the road and then the number padding games that he's supposed to be putting up five, six touchdowns in and coming out in the third quarter, he's struggling. I think that part of winning the Heisman is amassing

Starting point is 01:00:01 eye-popping numbers. And if you can't amass those numbers against the teams that are easy and don't really pose much of a threat to you, it's not just a bad look from an optic state. point, it's a bad look from your final statistics in the end of the year because so many times you go, well, the guy threw for X number of touchdowns and X number of passing yards. It's like those, a lot of those yards, a lot of times are against overmatched opponents where they ran up the score. Right. And that is why people were so worried about Arch. Now, let's contrast that with Ty Simpson against ULM and Wisconsin. So 41 of 46 for 608 yards and seven touchdowns. That is how you hear. handle games against overmatch competition. That is what you're supposed to do. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:00:46 They weren't really running it up either. This wasn't a case of leaving him in to run it up. This was just in the flow of the game and they actually got looks at the backups too. You certainly cannot win the Heisman against overmatched opponents. You can maybe lose it, though, I think. Yeah. If you don't put up the right numbers. Now, the question said, if Ty Simpson plays like he did against those two teams against

Starting point is 01:01:08 everybody else, could he win the Heisman? I mean, all. Yes. Is that against Georgia and LSU and Auburn? Yeah. Like, he's running away with it. Seven touchdowns against Georgia and Auburn, then yes, he can. I don't know if that's a reasonable expectation.

Starting point is 01:01:24 Yeah. And like, I don't know this. And I'm going to use your brain and I'm going to slice it open for the encyclopedic knowledge. Has there been a player who has won the Heisman in the recent pass that you can remember that got off to a bad start? I mean, Mansell lost a. Florida in game one, but it was a case of like Cliff Kingsbury, who was the OC for A&M that year admitted, he didn't even know how to call plays for him because they hadn't really seen him live against anybody yet. They'd just seen him in practice. So they weren't aware of how

Starting point is 01:01:59 slippery he was. And so they changed the way they called games around him as that season went on, and his numbers got progressively better. But he still looked awesome against Florida. It's just that probably wasn't as awesome as it could have been. One, because Florida's defense that year was really good. But two, because Cliff Kingsbury and Kevin Sellon weren't sure exactly what they had yet. That's one, you know, Winston the year he won the Heisman just came out slinging. Mariotto was good, wire to wire that year. Johnny Mandel had 175 yards passing and 60 yards rushing in a touchdown against Florida on week one, too.

Starting point is 01:02:36 Right. So he's still a match bats in that game. Right. And that defense was awesome that year. That Florida defense was really good. Now, it was week two. Remember, their Louisiana Tech game had been postponed because of a hurricane. And they probably would have lost against Louisiana Tech.

Starting point is 01:02:53 They ended up playing them in a really tight game later in the year. But had they gotten to see Mansell live, they might have played that Florida game differently. They might have won that game. So it's very strange how that all could have worked out. But the next five games after their first open, which was the opener, which was SMU, South Carolina State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Louisiana Tech, who was ranked for some reason. They were good that year.

Starting point is 01:03:20 A&M scored 48, 70, 58, 30, 59 points in the next five weeks. So, like, Manzel was like obviously just an electric player to watch, but he amassed stats very quickly. And Ty Simpson against Florida State, his stats, while not efficient, were not terrible. he was 23 of 43 for 254 yards and two touchdowns that sounds good that's 5.9 yards an attempt it's not what you want from efficiency standpoint but the ones that people consider at the end of the year when they're voting either it sure didn't it sure didn't lose them that game but when you think he's been voters look at how many yards did you throw for how many passing touchdowns did you have how much did you rush for and how many rushing touchdowns do you have i don't think that completion percentage plays a factor for most people no i don't think it does either because i don't think people are actually looking in a critical way because you can you can really compile passing yards if you throw 60 times a game like right i mean like mac jones didn't he have like a 91% completion percentage in

Starting point is 01:04:19 2020 2020 yeah mac jones was mac jones was one of the most ridiculously efficient quarterbacks in college ever but yeah it's easier to do that when everybody's open and devante smith is getting matched up a tough borderland in the national title game but i digress yeah it's it's Tough being named tough when that happens. You realize, and I know that it was like a matchup and a pre-stap motion thing. I don't know. I have to go back and watch the play. It's been five, six years since it happened.

Starting point is 01:04:48 But the person that Ohio State fans were complaining all year was too slow to be on the field, got matched up one-on-one with Devante Smith in the national title game. I don't know how that happens. I don't know what that happens, but that just watching him like sag 12 to 15 yards behind him on the defensive attempt is just like one of the most unbelievably unbelievable things I've seen. Anyway. All right.

Starting point is 01:05:13 One more question. Actually, two more questions because Producer River has a bonus question for us at the end. This is from Brad. I'm behind a couple shows, so I'm not sure if you talked about Cal recently, but the win over what I imagine

Starting point is 01:05:26 will be in above average Minnesota paired with the play of Geron Chiave Sangapoletele. Jaron Chiave Sangapoletele has caught my attention enough for me to take a look at their schedule. I don't think it would have been possible for their ACC schedule to be easier.

Starting point is 01:05:46 There may be three games that jump out as loseable to me, and even then Duke hasn't looked great and will have to travel across the country. Louisville and SMU at home are the others, and it remains to be seen how good each of them are. I'm not saying this will definitely happen or anything, but it does seem extremely realistic that they can make the ACC championship game and sneak into the playoff conversation in a similar way to Indiana last year. Am I crazy?

Starting point is 01:06:07 It's funny that he asked this because I have created or started a series called unfiltered takes that I write every Monday. And I want to go back to unfiltered takes after week one down to point 20 or point 19. I do 20 points every week. California Golden Bears and I'm reading directly from a story that I published on September 1st, Labor Day. is a California team who could sneak into the college football playoff discourse you may have lost track during an exciting Saturday but the Golden Bears true

Starting point is 01:06:42 freshman quarterback JKS was absolutely sensational and Cal's 3415 win over Oregon State JKS completed 20 of us 30 passing attempts or 234 yards and three touchdowns the stats don't do it justice the man has a rocket of an arm and was just dotting receivers all over the field including a few perfectly placed balls that were dropped downfield and now CFP discussions sounds crazy in week one

Starting point is 01:07:03 and maybe it is. But before you dismiss the notion of the Golden Bears, could be this year's Cinderella, this year's Indiana. Please go look at Cal Schedule and get back to me. Yep. And beating Minnesota. Right. And Minnesota is a good non-conference opponent.

Starting point is 01:07:20 So it's not so much poking the bear so early, pun intended. But it is trying to use the information that we have, which is sensational quarterback and fun offense against the schedule that doesn't really have any great teams. Now, a team like Cal could maybe turn around and lose a random game that you're not thinking of because after all, it's Cal and if that's the way that they're, but if they are actually just like really good

Starting point is 01:07:46 or very good for their standard, it absolutely could amount to an Indiana type run. And I don't know if Cal's, the thing that I don't know, Andy, and you can help me with this, is that Indiana, while definitely the recipient of a great draw last year, earned some credit for playing in the Big Ten. And I don't know if you get that same credit, even if it's a down Big Ten, they did beat Washington, they beat Michigan last year, Indiana did. Like, even though those teams weren't very good, I think that you do get a certain inherent credit for being in the Big Ten.

Starting point is 01:08:22 You do, and in the ACC, it's going to be like, what did you do against Florida State, what do you do against Miami, what did you do against Clemson? And they don't play any of those teams. Which is unbelievable. And here's the thing. They might get to play one of those if they get to play them in the ACC championship game.

Starting point is 01:08:37 And if they are a team that does make it, and let's say they're 11 and 1 or 10 and 2 and make it. And then they play a Miami, a Florida State, a Clemson, or somebody in the ACC championship game and either win, obviously they're in if they win. But if they play that team close and they have a really good record, it's the same exact thing that SMU did last year. No?

Starting point is 01:08:56 Well, and here's right. And here's the other piece of this. They did. Atlanta, October 25th, Cal at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech also, now that they've beaten Clemson, the rest of their ACC schedule does not look daunting. So that potentially could be an elimination game for the ACC championship. And also, this discussion brings in Miami and Florida State and Clemson as well, and Louisville. Let's not forget Louisville.

Starting point is 01:09:28 I don't, the whole Dabo rant, the Clemson thing, them backing into the ACC championship game last year. Totally on the table still. They've got to win the rest of their ACC games or they may not have the chance to do that. Yeah, but I still think it's on the table. I don't know that like Clemson. It's on the table, but Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Florida State.

Starting point is 01:09:54 Like, it is less on the table than it was last year. It's going to be harder than that was last year. Yeah. You know, I wonder if NC State should be in the mix for the ACCC, and then I'd open their schedule. They're playing at Duke this weekend, and they're at Notre Dame on October 11th. They have Georgia Tech Miami and Florida State all in a row in November,

Starting point is 01:10:18 all three of them in a row. That's a pretty rough. You know, that's a pretty rough three-game stretch. But, you know, NC State, funny enough, I think as a team that Notre Dame should be rooting for right now because the better they are, the more likely they are. They want C.J. Bailey to light it up against everybody but them. Yep.

Starting point is 01:10:38 So, you know, context is building. That's the best thing about September. We start to put together clues. Like we work at a, like we're, who are the famous detectives that everybody always talks about? Oh, Sherlock Holmes and Watson? I'm Watson, right? I'm Watson.

Starting point is 01:10:55 You went on PMT, you're Sherlock. You say no shit Sherlock a lot? Yeah, I don't, but I think that I should. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I'm, I think you're more the mad genius. So you're more Sherlock. I think I'm probably closer to talk to Watson. And Watson's the guy who's in the corner.

Starting point is 01:11:13 You're not a, you're not a sidekick, buddy. I'll make Sherlock if I ever get on part of my take. And I'll say no shit, Sherlock, if you ever say something stupid. So. Which is every day. One more question. This is from Producer River. and it's a fascinating one i'm just going to let you say it river yeah that's fine um so saturday

Starting point is 01:11:32 saturday's game texas tech and utah 12 p.m eastern kick but a 10 a.m. mountain time kick what is your ideal itinerary to tailgate for this game if you're a student at utah like what are what are your weekend plans for a 10 a.m. kickoff like now are you talking about like modern day us or like if I could pick my perfect day and not be subjected to my job and family you are a fan of tech or Utah you're just a fan going to the game like trying to plan a weekend in Salt Lake City before I answer this question too I also want to say that a 10 a.m. kickoff sucks it'd be crazy I can't imagine it I would suck I can tell you right now I'm popping medellos at about 7 a.m. Yeah 7 a.m. 7 a.m. I mean but the thing that stinks about the perfect day is if you have to set up your

Starting point is 01:12:23 alarm clock and wake up at 630 to like get going that that blows no one nobody wants to do that a little baby's cream in your coffee but i do think that in my opinion the best time for a game if i were to tailgate that i would choose would be 3 30 because you get to get to the stadium around noon tailgate for three hours in the parking lot watch the noon games while you're tailgating sorry when a Arizona get to the stadium around noon the 3 30 game you get to stadium at 9 yeah whatever You get there when you get there without an alarm clock. You get hammered for four hours before the game while watching other games because watching football is the best thing in the world.

Starting point is 01:13:02 Then you watch your game that you're going to. You hope your team wins and you go out and you party and watch the night games. Like that to me is perfect. Yeah, but a 10 a.m. kick, like you're still watching game day at 10 a.m. Do we have the Wilfong tweet? Steve Wilfong, our colleague tweeted that this is the perfect time because you watch the game. It's done at 1 p.m. local time.

Starting point is 01:13:26 You pop your honey-dew list, then you have a nightcap, and then you're done. That is the Will Ferrell Home Depot, Bed Bath, and Beyond, nice little Saturday of... A little Saturday, yeah. I don't know if I'll have enough time.

Starting point is 01:13:41 You know, it'll be really, really good for whoever wins because then you get the best part, that's I always say about the NCAA tournament. It's like if you play on the first day and you get a win. and then you get to watch the entire second day. You get to party from 2 p.m. on Thursday, 2 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday until your team tips off on Saturday.

Starting point is 01:14:01 Which is like a whole day of chaos that you can't get clipped by. Yeah. But if you lose, it's a long, long day. This is a tough one if you lose. Yeah. But what's your ideal start time if you were going to a game as a fan? What time would you want it to start? 3.30.

Starting point is 01:14:19 3.30, because, yeah, it's, it ends as, as the sun goes down, then you go out and party, you watch late games. Yep. I do like the idea of if you have an early game and you win, having the rest of the day as your own. But I just continue to party. Like, you've got two more windows of games to enjoy and bask in the glow of your team's win.

Starting point is 01:14:42 Now, if we're talking about, so breakfast food as tailgate food is really good. Yes. So you got to, let's say you bring out the flat top. You can make some omelets. I mean, there's a lot you can do with this. My favorite thing, too, because I said this on the show, my favorite tailgate food is like brots. And I think you could do some pretty creative things with sliced bros and a breakfast dish, too.

Starting point is 01:15:07 Absolutely. Because you could throw brats into an omelet. You could throw them in with some home fries. There's a lot to do with that. So I do think for the food and drink purposes, the early morning feels right. because like River said, you Irish up your coffee, then you hit some medellos, then you have your breakfast burritos or your home fry mash up. I think there's a lot of ways to go with that.

Starting point is 01:15:34 It is tough, though, getting up in the morning. I'm not a morning person. I like to ease into my day, and that does not ease me into my day. Yeah. Um, side food ramp. And I don't know if it's because I grew up in Phoenix and I live in Texas and I haven't done enough. I think, think a very good breakfast burrito should be more available than it is oh yeah and and very good breakfast tacos it's something in in the state of florida here it we are woefully short on those if you if you wanted to go get a fat burrito that's like the size of a chipotle burrito but is a breakfast burrito with egg potatoes cheese bacon sausage yeah yeah all that do you would you even know where to go no like that like that to me is a food oversight and

Starting point is 01:16:20 opportunity and I know that I will say I have a Latin place and I took you there the last time you were here that is right down the street for me and it's it's more Caribbean food than anything else but they are open for breakfast so you get you get Cuban coffee you can get a Ropa Vieha breakfast bowl that is dynamite but as far as the the breakfast burrito like the Mexican version of that we don't have that we don't have the great breakfast tacos and breakfast burritos like people in Texas and Arizona have no idea how lucky they are Yeah, but even in Texas, I don't really know where to go. So if you live in Dallas, send me an email.

Starting point is 01:16:54 I know where to go. Meet you anywhere in Grapevine. Meet you anywhere's a barbecue place. It opens at 7 a.m. on Saturdays. Brisket tacos right out of the smoker. Yeah, okay. Well, we'll drive 45 minutes out to Grapevine next time you're here at 7 a.m. And we'll get them.

Starting point is 01:17:11 At Arizona, when I went to school there, you could not walk 10 feet without getting hit in the face with a Chipotle-sized breakfast burrito. and I also think that that's a versatile thing that you could eat for lunch and dinner. I don't think that that has to be exclusive for breakfast. I think that's a hearty enough meal where I could replace. I think that you could have a breakfast burrito shop that's open all day

Starting point is 01:17:32 and still sell them in the afternoon and evening. Am I wrong about that? You're not wrong. I'm actually, this might be the million dollar business idea for me in Florida. Yeah, let me, I want in. Call it Andy and Ari's breakfast burritos. I don't know.

Starting point is 01:17:44 We'd have to make it. I'm in a college town. I really do think there's a market for that. especially if you could do it through a drive-thru too oh my god yes walk-up window drive-thru something like that yeah and also the most cheap ingredients that a human being can ever have in a restaurant your profit margin remains high i'm in i'm retired it's been fun doing shows uh i'm gonna open a breakfast burrito place now or you just gave me the idea you know i am married to a woman whose job is to help businesses um

Starting point is 01:18:18 expand and find locations and stuff and she has a lot of really smart people that she works for and with and a lot of times these people are very very wealthy because they own businesses and are expanding and I think about their ideas and I'm like god damn this guy's really really sharp this woman is really really sharp they came up with this idea and it's like the idea in it of itself isn't that complicated but being smart enough to execute it right is is a talent that you need to have to. But, like, there is money to be made if you have the right idea. There is.

Starting point is 01:18:53 And it's just a matter of whether or not you can execute it. But I think the, a properly execute, because it's all about branding, right? Yep. You have a cool logo or if you set the vibe right in your restaurant and you have legitimately good food at a reasonable price, people will come. I'm just not smart enough to execute it, which is why we're doing shows, which is why we will see you on Saturday night, 1130 p.m. Eastern time wrapping up all the games

Starting point is 01:19:18 will be with you throughout the day well I'll be with you throughout the day Ari will be at his daughter's birthday party at Auburn Oklahoma I had to throw it in there Ari I had to I'm sorry I'm gonna be locked in man like I'm doing the best I'm not and I am

Starting point is 01:19:33 we have TVs being rolled into the into the party so that they're live with all these gang guys like that's what we're doing you're playing pin the tail on the donkey my daughter wants me watching Jackson Arnold and John Mateer face off. Pin the tail of the donkey.

Starting point is 01:19:55 Love you. Love you.

Andy & Ari On3 - FINAL Preview ahead of Week 4’s BIGGEST MATCHUPS | Michigan-Nebraska, South Carolina-Missouri

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