Andy & Ari On3 - Florida QB DJ Lagway to enter transfer portal | What’s next for Lagway and the Gators? CFP First Round Picks

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3, DJ Lagway announces that he is transferring from Florida, the guy who was supposed to be the next Florida legend, and he wanted to be the next Florida legend, is moving on. Florida with a new coaching staff. We'll have a new QB1. We'll talk about this very unique to 2025 story. Plus, it's a picked show. We've got to pick the first round college football playoff games. Huge game. Alabama at Oklahoma, Miami at Texas A&M, Tulane at Ole Miss, and James Madison at Oregon. We got the picks against the spread thanks to our partner, BetMGM. So let's pick some games on today's Andy and Ari on 3, presented by BetMGM. We are presented by BetMGM. We use BetMGM lines and totals, and you can join us by joining BedMGM. If you have not signed up for bed MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB as in college football,

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Starting point is 00:02:41 That is because we'd already started recording this show when the Dylan Ryola leaving Nebraska news struck. So we did a live emergency show talking Dylan Ryola. So if you want to hear in-depth conversation about what? Dylan Raola does next, what Nebraska does next. We've got that show on the On3 Sports YouTube page, and it's also in your podcast feed. We figured, let's not add on to this conversation anymore than we already have because we figure there's a lot of you that want to have a full DJ Lagway conversation, because that's also a huge deal.

Starting point is 00:03:16 So we've got the DJ Lagway conversation in this show, and then if you want the Dylan Ryola more in-depth analysis, check out that other show on the On Three Sports YouTube channel. Also, in your podcast feed, whether that's Apple Podcasts, whether that's Spotify, whether that's the IHeart app, you name it. We're there, too. So we got you covered in case your quarterback hits the portal, which at this point, it may be everybody's quarterback. Welcome to Annie and Orion 3 presented by BetMGM. And this is going to be one of those weeks where even though there are college football playoff games, Ari, the news is not going to stop. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway wants the hope of the program, the guy that they kept Billy Napier to keep, he's entering the transfer portal.

Starting point is 00:04:15 Andy, he's also the guy who has represented you and I both having a complete alliance and the worst dog shit take of all time. That's correct. Both of us have taken turns at times, having really strong takes that turned out to be wrong, but we were in complete agreement that he was going to be the best quarterback in college football this last year, and that certainly didn't play out. Now, that said, I still think that he's going to be an incredibly valuable asset in the transfer portal, and someone's going to pay a lot of money, and I think that maybe somebody might gamble their job on him. Listen, DJ Lagway

Starting point is 00:04:53 This is the same reason that we had that terrible take Because DJ Lagway can make throws that 90% of quarterbacks cannot make And so some coach is going to go Whatever the issue was at Florida, I can fix it Now, here's the thing I think it's possible that the right coach can You know, maybe it should be the Billy Napier wasn't the guy That's what I wanted to talk to you about when I mean,

Starting point is 00:05:18 I've been thinking about this since the news broke. It's that like, what was Billy Napier's number one problem at Florida? Predictable bad offensive play calling. And then on top of that, not being willing to allow any change in that regard? Correct. Correct. So if that's the number one thing, then is there a possibility that DJ Lagway's development was stunted by their offensive of inability to innovate or do anything different or even change. And that might not be the case. Like there were certain times where he was inaccurate, right?

Starting point is 00:05:54 Like inaccuracy is inaccuracy. And there were certain times where he turned the ball over quite a bit. And being turnover prone sometimes is being turnover prone. But I wonder if he got into the right system with the right coach, if they could unlock something that we know was underneath there, or if we just misread the whole situation completely with him. Well, it's going to be very interesting. because, listen, John Stomroll is a new coach at Florida, Buster Faulkner's due to

Starting point is 00:06:20 offensive coordinator. From talking to people, it seems fairly clear that they were not all in on DJ Lagway as the, as the QB one. This is a two-way street. Don't assume that they came in and Lagway was like, well, I want this and I want this and I'm out of here if not. That's not what happened. Lagway wanted to be Florida starting quarterback and one wanted to, you know, keep the deal he had and everything. I'm not sure how much the new administration wanted him to be Florida started quarterback. Well, also, and I don't know, Andy, correct me if I'm wrong here, but in order to make the decision or get to a place where you are not all in on DJ Lagway as your quarterback, that means that

Starting point is 00:07:04 you're willing to step into relative unknown and say whatever's behind door B is going to be better for us than DJ Lagway, which I think it's a pretty scary choice to me. complete unknown, not a complete unknown, because Tremel Jones Jr., the freshman quarterback at Florida, who was backing up DJ Lagway this year, who took most of the reps with the ones while Lagway was recuperating from various injuries in the offseason, is staying. So that he may be the guy, they may bring in another guy. Like, we don't know, are they going to go get a high profile? Like, would they go after like a Sam Levitt? Or could Buster Faulkner? or bring somebody he's worked with before.

Starting point is 00:07:48 Like, at the moment, Aaron Philo is the heir apparent to Haynes King at Georgia Tech. But would Aaron Philo potentially follow Buster Faulkner? Because, like, if you brought Aaron Filo, I think you're having a competition between Tremel Jones and Aaron Filo. Well, did somebody tell you- If you got Sam Levitt, there's no competition. Like, Sam Levitt would be the starting quarterback. Like, I'm sure you're aware, like, is Tremel Jones part of the point? plan or is that the backup plan?

Starting point is 00:08:18 I think he's part of the plan. Okay, because if he's part of the plan, that changes the calculus a little bit. Also, as we started recording the show, Andy, I don't know if you saw this, but Brendan Sorsby. Yes. Mattie has now gone, there are plans to enter the portal. And like, this is just the beginning of quarterback duck, duck goose. And behind door B, even if they're not 100% certain of what that person is, it's going to be a

Starting point is 00:08:43 plentiful group of guys, I think. because we know Sam Levitt's going to be there, right? We know Swordsby's in there now, and we know there's going to be a lot more dominoes that fall. So it's going to be interesting, but I'm also very curious about Lagway himself and where he ends up and whether, you know, he's going to be somebody that a coach sees

Starting point is 00:09:02 is the guy who saves his program, his job, and I see some early schools to watch there on the graphic, Andy. Yeah, Pete Akos has already got a story, of course, because Pete has never stopped working. LSU Baylor, Miami as potential landing spots for DJ Lagway. I know Pete and I had talked about maybe Texas Tech, but with Sorsby entering the transfer portal, he seems pretty perfect for that offense at Texas Tech.

Starting point is 00:09:28 So if Sorsby is leaving and going to another school, I mean, he already looks good in those colors too. But DJ Lagway with Lane Kiffin at LSU, can you imagine? I mean, I'm actually... You're a coach up there who can fix the accuracy part, who can help him make better decisions or maybe just call plays in a way that it's easier for him. Well, Lane Kiffin could be that guy, right?

Starting point is 00:09:59 Yeah, well, I mean, like, it's funny because you can, like, keep coming up with, like, ways to fantasize. Like, are you telling me that the one number or graphic there at the bottom of that, the logo on the bottom of that graphic isn't something that percolates you a little bit? about the you? Yeah, I'm talking about the you in-state rival. Shannon Dawson's done a really good job with transfer quarterback so far. Cam Ward, Carson Beck, could DJ be the next one?

Starting point is 00:10:25 Yeah. But just like the in-state connection to that too. He's from Texas. It doesn't really matter. I think that it would matter when you have a bunch of Miami fans. Florida fans would be mad. They don't play Miami. So they'd be mad if he went to Miami and was good.

Starting point is 00:10:41 Yeah, that's what I'm saying. And also the Press Corps puts all the Miami fans in that I've spent the last year making fun of them. You know the crazy part of this? LSU's on that list, too. Florida doesn't play LSU next year. After so many years of playing LSU every year, they don't play LSU next year. So it wouldn't even happen. Yeah, but do you have any intel on whether he's interested in returning back home?

Starting point is 00:11:09 well Baylor was a school that recruited him very hard coming out of high school so that that would be one that I think would be one to watch but you look if Lane Kiffin wants you at LSU I think you go to LSU right yeah I mean is that funny just like when every before DJ didn't have had a rough year and he was still the apple of everyone's eye there was a lot of jokes about how he was going to be A&M's quarterback this year if like Napier were to have gotten fired last year And now A&M has a quarterback that I believe is, you know, Marcel Reed is going to be returning next year, right? So they don't even have an opening for him at A&M, and A&M's closest to where he grew up in terms of power jobs. So, yeah, I know, I mean, Marcel Reed's the A&M quarterback. Yeah. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. And it'll be really interesting, too, once you have full context of who's all in there. Because as we start doing, you know, rankings and hot boards of who the best available is, like, I'm very curious where DJ Lagway is going to stack up.

Starting point is 00:12:09 Let me ask you this. Since we have two who said it today, given what we saw this year, you're a GM or you're an offensive coordinator who needs a starting quarterback. Do you want DJ Leggley or Brennan Sorsby? You know I'm mentally ill with this stuff. You know I can't. Because Brendan Sorsby wasn't a five star, so you can't possibly imagine that he'd be as good, but his numbers are better. You also, you know, Sorsby was better last year. There's much better. There's no question. There's no question. It's not the five-star thing, Andy. It's the throws that I've seen him make. It's very... I agree. I can't like...

Starting point is 00:12:50 Yeah. And I also feel like if last year was semi-disfunctional, like he only deserves half of the blame. Well, and that is, I think, the biggest question with DJ Lagway is how much of this is on Billy Napier and how much is this is on DJ Lagway? And we're not going to get an answer to that until we see him playing for.

Starting point is 00:13:09 somebody else. So like this example here with these three schools in the logo, the logos that we see next to DJ Leggway on the screen. So Baylor LSU, Miami. Baylor, their offensive coordinator, Jake Spadol, he has resurrected quite a few QB's careers over the years.

Starting point is 00:13:27 He runs an offense that is very quarterback friendly. You can put up huge numbers in that offense as a talented quarterback. Lane Kiffin, his body work speaks for itself. Shannon Dawson has taken on two transfer quarterbacks the last two years. One of them was the number one picking the draft last year.

Starting point is 00:13:48 Carson Beck has his team in the playoff. We're going to be picking Miami's game against Texas and him later in the show. So if he winds up in one of these three places, we will get, we'll have a good idea after we see him play, whether this was Billy Napier's fault or DJ Lagway's fault. Maybe even as soon as like the opener. you know how you get after one game like you got us we haven't broken you with that yet uh huh i mean for somebody for isman after one game and you you you uh you know that that's something that's going to need medication that's not something that you're going to like shame me

Starting point is 00:14:31 out of um i am also kind of amused to think that like after all the lane kiff and drama and you know where he was going to go and where he ended up like i'm amused at the thought of like could he end up coaching dj lagway anyway welcome the lane kiffin arrow with dj lagway at quarterback well and that's one of the interesting things is is in reporting on the florida coaching search it did seem that if kiffin because there you know there was that period where kiffin in florida were very hot and heavy into each other uh it did seem that kiffin was down for for lagway staying yeah what i do know is that somebody is going to gamble uh seven figures on a roulette spin on this guy and it's going to be great to watch yes it's going to be expensive because there are going to be

Starting point is 00:15:19 multiple suitors and because he somebody's going to throw the florida lSU 2004 or florida Ole Miss 2004 tape on and go, you can have this. You might not get this every game, but you could have this at some point. You know, Andy, I wanted to ask you this. How much do you think his injury history plays into account what his market value is? I think it's an interesting question because it goes back to high school. One of the reasons he was a little bit later, you know, kind of later blooming recruit and high riser as a senior was because that was his healthiest high school season and then you had the situation in this past

Starting point is 00:16:03 off season where he really couldn't throw very much and so if his arms healthy and he has a full off season where he can learn his new offense you know get comfortable with his new receivers again we could find out that it wasn't entirely his fault that there were there were other issues so i it's a fascinating thing because like you you you called it a roulette spin and that's really what it is because if you hit oh my god there's a few extra green spots on this roulette wheel though because you could land on green uh with some injury stuff and it might not even be because he can't perform do you play fantasy football andy uh i don't but my son has like four teams so i am very much apprised of what's going on in the fantasy football

Starting point is 00:16:50 world i have four leagues and you know have been playing it like most people listen to the show for years and there are certain people that like I love and will never draft because I'm terrified of drafting them like Christian McCaffrey's one or it's like you have to pay you know 70 bucks in an auction you always draft Kyle Pitts and are always disappointed until last Thursday night Walter White voice you're goddamn right and I was in the playoffs this week and Kyle Pitts was my tight end in two leagues and he set I think a a points record in fantasy football for the most tight end points in like 20 years like I don't know if you know that like even more than any Kelsey game or it was it was a it was a historic game did you

Starting point is 00:17:38 three touchdown catches I think over 150 yards like I don't know that a tight end it had a game like that since Tony Gonzalez or somebody did you watch the game I did I watched the whole game can I use profanity uh you have already so you may as well I'm not going to but what the hell man like honestly like what the hell like can you understand he's going to be a great kansas city chief next year that is the personification of the dj lagway discussion for me which is did you see that you want me to let me to that human i draft him every year you want me to let me to let you also kind of got it in the texas game what you you also kind of got it this year in the texas game with dj lagway i know it's kind of hard to let go when you see of something like

Starting point is 00:18:26 that to me it's like well i don't know i don't know what went wrong like i tweeted about it on thursday night when he was playing and all the falcons fans are like he doesn't try hard he doesn't give a lot of effort he doesn't have the desire to play it i and i don't know i'm not a falcons fan i don't watch him every week but like he looked like somebody who would be a top five pick in the NFL draft and then used appropriately for the next five years if you could do that one game Why can't you be a consistent receiving target in every NFL game? But sometimes, and you're asking this about Lagway, as much as you're asking this about Yeah, it's the same deal.

Starting point is 00:19:03 Former Gator Kyle Pitts. But yeah, sometimes guys who can do it in one game can't do it in every game. And that's the problem. Like, that is, that's the roulette spin you're talking about. And that's why we talked about Soresby or Lagway. Sorsby did it every game. I mean, I just don't understand that because physical traits are physical traits. and Kyle Pitts is an alien.

Starting point is 00:19:26 And DJ Lagway's an alien. 6, 3, 247 pounds, an arm that is better than... Basically, what you're asking me is, would you rather have Kyle Pitts on your team, or would you rather have... Who's, like, David... The third tight end for the Rams, who scored two TDS yesterday. I'm trying to think of just like a guy like,

Starting point is 00:19:45 that is consistent and catches five passes a game for 48 yards and can block well. I'm picking Kyle Pitts. like give me that guy but and and i think that's the thing i think dj lagway will be catnip to certain coaches catnip like you um and i'm not sorry about it i'm never going to be sorry but we're we watch this game we talk about this game it's all about excitement i i well now we got lagway in the portal brendsoresby's in the portal lenora sellers is not in the portal going back to South Carolina

Starting point is 00:20:22 like this is about to get very interesting like all this news that keeps popping Brendan Sorsby is to me somebody who could wind up at a bigger school in the Power 5 that has a lot of good players around him and then be a Heisman finalist next year. You mean like Texas Tech.

Starting point is 00:20:40 Yeah or yeah it could be Texas Tech it could be Big 10 SEC. I don't know what is market's going to command but it's very easy to get lost in the he was very effective very good and you know we had him on the show he got some moves too you put him with some better receivers it's going to be yeah it's like fernando mendoza won the heisman by the way i know we haven't had a show and sorsby already runs really well so yeah i i'm interested to see where that winds up but this quarterback market's going to be wild it is and dj lagway

Starting point is 00:21:11 the biggest name in there now i mean sam levitt's probably the most accomplished guy in there now it's interesting that DJ LAWay might be the biggest name and he certainly was the highest rate of recruit but I think if you ask a lot of coaches they would like well I know what I'm getting with Sam Levitt and Brendan Sorsby so I think that's going to be the question because I think that's probably what John Summerall

Starting point is 00:21:34 and Buster Faulkner said on that front was we're not sure what we're going to get with you and we want something that we're a little more certain of but we're going to find out All right, Ari, it is time to pick some games. By the way, if you'd like to go to any of these college football playoff games, would you like to go to Norman and see Alabama play Oklahoma?

Starting point is 00:21:58 Would you like to go to College Station and see Miami play Texas A&M? Go to game time. Download the app. Use the code Staples and get $20 off your first purchase, terms of blah, of course. They have tickets for it all. I don't care how tough the ticket is to get. They have tickets on game time. and you'll be able to see exactly where you'd be sitting from the GameTime app.

Starting point is 00:22:19 You also will see exactly what you pay. That price you see is the price you pay. They don't tack on a bunch of fees right there at the end. It's the price you pay. So download the GameTime app. Use Go to go to Staples, $20 off your first purchase. Swipe, tap, ticket, go with Game Time. Ari, let's talk Alabama, Oklahoma.

Starting point is 00:22:39 Let's talk Sooners and Tide. This is going to be a great, game. Oklahoma, now a one-point underdog at home. That line has moved a little. It was a narrow line already. I believe it was Alabama by a point and a half for a lot of the time, but now Alabama by one.

Starting point is 00:22:58 We got, so let's peel back the curtain on the show a little bit. We were going to be recording this show a little later on Monday, originally, because we thought Kaylon DeBore was going to get asked a very interesting question at his press conference at 2 p.m. Eastern 1 p.m. Central. But on Sunday, Kaelan DeBore released a statement that put to rest what that question would have been about. So here's what that statement said. My family and I are very happy in Tuscaloosa and remain extremely grateful for the support of President Mueller, Greg Byrne, the board, and so many others. We have an incredible opportunity in front of us. So my sole focus is on Alabama football and our preparations to play Oklahoma

Starting point is 00:23:41 in the college football playoff. I have not spoken and have no interest in speaking with anyone else about any other job. I am fully committed to this program and looking forward to continuing as the head football coach at the University of Alabama. Now, the ultra-synical among us immediately started posting the Nick Sabin. I'm not going to be the Alabama coach quote. The mildly cynical like myself said, bet Kailan DeVore is getting some more money or a sweeter deal like better NIL or better staff pool, something. he's getting a sweeter deal we may not find out about that immediately but i bet we find out later

Starting point is 00:24:14 that he got a sweeter deal so that he would not entertain the michigan job all right i feel like this closes the door on on michigan and kailan abhor do you think there's any wiggle room uh i don't know i think it closes the door too i got what i think so too i think calen abhor's off the board here i have not spoken to and have not interest i have no interest in speaking to i thought was an interesting line in that that didn't have to be written i have not spoken then have no interest in speaking with anyone like he he didn't have to write that or that didn't have like part of the statement Kenny dillingham did a press conference over the weekend i think it was on saturday and he was asked about the arizona state job he actually got choked up talking about it but at no point

Starting point is 00:24:55 did he say anything that definitive yeah i mean being choked up i thought was more uh-oh he could leave than that yeah yeah like i don't know you know Kenny can be emotional about the opportunity that he has to coach at the school he grew up being around. You know, I understand how that can make somebody emotional, but people tend to get emotional when they're leaving or considering leaving. So, you know, again, complete speculation on my part. But, you know, the thing that I just don't know, and you and I had talked about this over the weekend,

Starting point is 00:25:25 but like, why is Kailen DeBore's name constantly coming up for other jobs that I would consider to be worse than Alabama? Because there's nobody else in, there's nobody else that anybody feels is qualified. and I guess you can sort of gin up the idea that the Alabama fans are mad because he didn't immediately produce results exactly like Nick Sabin. But I think if you look, and this is what I've told people, because normally I'm not a give a coach a new deal every time he has a little leverage. But in this case, like, give me your Alabama hotboard if Kalin DeBore left.

Starting point is 00:26:01 There isn't one. Yeah. Are Alabama fans appreciative? of him or like happy that he's their coach? I think they are. I think if we ask them Friday night, they may have a different answer and then how this game goes may determine that.

Starting point is 00:26:18 But I think with Alabama's administration, with the more rational among the Alabama fan base, they are happy with him. They expect him to be their coach for a long time. They would like him to be their coach for a long time. Yeah. I don't know that I agree with you. Like, again, I don't know every Alabama fan out there

Starting point is 00:26:34 and, you know, sometimes I can get a read on things. Are you related to any, because I am? I am not related to any, no, but there's like three that live in my neighborhood, and one is my wife's boss and another is like my best friend here. Okay. I'm like surrounded by a bunch of Alabama fans. And I don't, and again, that's a small sample size of millions of people. But like, they weren't like, oh, like, oh my God, we can't lose him.

Starting point is 00:27:04 And I don't know that I see a lot of that on Twitter. And I don't know if that's just a spoiled fan base that is used to winning the national championship every other year or a fan base that isn't 100% bought in on what they're doing there. And I don't know which one it is. I think it's a spoiled fan base is used to win the national title every year. And I also think he's not Nick Saban. He's very different personality-wise for Nick Saban. So I think I'm not talking about the Alabama offense here. I'm talking about everybody else assumes because he's not exactly like Nick Saban, oh, he must not like it there.

Starting point is 00:27:35 his family must hate it there he must be wanting to go somewhere else like i don't know why his name keeps getting brought up not because that's why but a terrible job but also you don't really see a lot of coaches get brought up when they're at a place like bama because it's like why would anybody leave bama for me for michigan like i know it's not it's not it's parallel at best and maybe it's right yeah and i think the only reason why you would consider that is if there's a sort of resentment internally from him himself, you know, that, hey, we're in the playoff and people are pissed. Like, what do you want from me type of a deal? And I don't know that that's that that wouldn't really. I don't think that's it. I think the more likely

Starting point is 00:28:17 personality trait that is at play here is Kaylon DeBoer going, I can't leave because I don't want to be the guy who ran from the expectations of succeeding Nick Saban. Yeah. And I don't think that the person who would sign up voluntarily to replace Saven would be resentful of the bar like you know that going in right so like i don't know if i buy that because it'd be like me taking a job at the new york times to cover politics and then being pissed off when i don't have access to the dnc or something i don't know whatever uh that was a terrible terrible analogy but like you get you get what i'm saying man like you don't just like get into year two and just be like oh yeah i voluntarily came to us

Starting point is 00:29:04 Alabama to replace the greatest coach of all time. I know these fans are insane. They're going to love me if I lose four games. It's just that doesn't make sense. So like the idea of him going there just never made sense to me in general. The only thing that made sense to me, Andy, was that he and his very talented agent would use this and other similar rumors as a way to get a sweeter deal and sign an extension,

Starting point is 00:29:25 which, you know, Pete Nake has reported they're working on. So congratulations to them. And I think that's what's going on. And I would do the same thing if I were. Jimmy Sexton or Davis Horton, his CIA agents. I would do the same thing in their position. That's their job, and they're doing their job. And if I'm tailing the board, I would want to do that too.

Starting point is 00:29:43 And I don't even know if it's about a further, obviously, a raise is always part of the equation for everybody. But I would do everything I could to like make it harder to fire me because you know how, how quickly things change there. Like what if they go eight and four next year? Then are you on the chopping block again? Like this is all very, what if they lose to Oklahoma? on Friday. I mean, that's the thing about this. The opinions of the fans could change pretty dramatically and pretty quickly.

Starting point is 00:30:12 And this is a big one, right? Alabama, Oklahoma, 8-9 game. This is where the, this was the Tennessee, Ohio State game last year. The national champion played in this game last year. I don't know that we got the national champion in this game this year, but we'll find out because the winner will play the one-seat Indiana. But this feels like. like a pick-em. They essentially played a pick-ham in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. Oklahoma won

Starting point is 00:30:41 23-21. Alabama missed a field go at the end of the first half that would have changed everything. Oklahoma had a pick six. That was a very, you know, huge play in the game. Neither offense was particularly great. Alabama couldn't run the ball. You know, I mentioned the Josh Kuevas thing last week where the tight-in Josh Quabas should be back, the running bat, GM Miller should be back. Both those guys played in this game, and Alabama's still lost. So the question is, which of these teams is going to have an offense show up in this game? Like, can Alabama run the ball against Oklahoma suddenly? I don't know if that's going to change.

Starting point is 00:31:21 They had most of the players that they're getting back now on the field in that game. Now, they may have been a little banged up. but that's my question. And Ty Simpson looked really banged up by the end of that Georgia game. Yeah. Now, these guys are young and in peak condition. And I think that like getting a whole week off

Starting point is 00:31:45 is a long time for these guys to get ready. And they got three weeks off. So Alabama had two and Oklahoma had three. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I picked Oklahoma in the bracket that I released online. like 10 minutes after the bracket was revealed. And like, I'm having a pretty big second thoughts about that, Andy.

Starting point is 00:32:08 The first game was a slog. I think the second game is going to be a slog. But are they going to do it twice? And for the third time in a row, like, are you like, it's like a really hard. Kalenbore is, oh and two as Alabama's coach against Oklahoma, by the way. Yeah. And it all happened within the last 14 months.

Starting point is 00:32:29 So it's not like, you know, we're using three years of data. It's last year and this year. Now, Oklahoma's home and their defense is nasty. And the last that we saw of Alabama's offense was not very good. I'm also kind of confused by the complete disappearance of Ryan Williams as an explosive playmaker. Like, I don't know what's going on there. But I'm having a hard time like saying, yeah, Oklahoma is going to win. So where are you at?

Starting point is 00:32:59 with this well i think if alabama can run the ball they'll win but again like i just said they had all those players when they played oklahoma and they couldn't run the ball i think they averaged 3.2 yards of carry or something like it was not good so uh there's 2.4 yards of carry so very bad plus you have an oklahoma defense that gets after the quarterback as well as Anyway, I rewatch that game last week. So many free runners coming at Ty Simpson. And it's not one of the situations where Alabama is being physically manhandled up front. It's one of those situations where Brent Venables is calling it really well, where he is scheming open.

Starting point is 00:33:48 Because, like, people don't think about it this way, but as a defensive coordinator, you can scheme open rushers, just like you can scheme open receivers. And Brent Venables is really good at that. You know, simulated pressures, moving people around, doing things where you have a guy running straight at the quarterback who the offensive line, it's not that they can't block him. It's that they don't communicate well enough to block him. And so Ty Simpson has to be, or sometimes you just have more rushers than they have blockers. And when that happens, Ty Simpson has to know there's a guy he can check it down to or dump it off to. And usually he does. But that's the question.

Starting point is 00:34:28 By the way, before we go any further with this, Ari, I do want to point out, Kaelin DeBoer needs a new hoodie. The black hoodie of death has to be retired after that ass kicking they took in the SEC Championship. So I would recommend that Kailen DeBoer get the Roeback Hezzy hoodie. See the Roeback Alabama Hezzy hoodie right there on the screen if you're watching on YouTube. That's a beautiful garment right there. I'm wearing the Navy Blue, no team logo version of that right now. It is one of the most comfortable garments you'll ever wear.

Starting point is 00:34:59 I guarantee if Kailen DeBoer wore that, they'd win. I don't know if he's contractually allowed to. But you know what? As a fan, you can and you should because it's cooler than that other company's versions. So get the black hoodie of life, Alabama fans. Also, Oklahoma fans, Roeback's got a ton of stuff for you. I just got a care package in the mail from Roeback, Ari, and I got to tell you, They got some pretty amazing stuff.

Starting point is 00:35:28 I got the shacket, the shirt jacket with the snap front buttons. It's amazing. Man, yeah, I got a pretty big care package from them too. And I'm excited to, you know, dig into that because they have some of the softest fabric ever, Andy. But they also have such a nice variety of different styles, too. So whatever you like to wear, they'll probably have what you like. So go check out their website for sure. Yeah, Roeback.com, R-H-O-B-A-C-K.

Starting point is 00:35:58 Use the code Andy for 20% off your first order. That's Roeback.com. R-H-O-B-A-C-K-com, code Andy, A-N-D-Y for 20% off your first order. Even if Kailen-D-Bore can't wear that black hoodie, you wear that black hoodie, and maybe you cheer Alabama onto victory with it, or you get the sooner's version. All right, all right, let's pick this game. We have to decide. We've talked about Alabama's offense.

Starting point is 00:36:25 let's talk about Oklahoma's offense. This is not an offense that inspires confidence. Like of the offenses in the college football playoff from the power conferences, we're probably leaving Tulane and James Madison out of this. But if the offenses from the power conference teams in the college football playoff, Oklahoma probably inspires the least confidence, right? I mean, I feel like Oklahoma and Alabama are very similar recently. It does feel that way.

Starting point is 00:36:52 I mean, I don't know. We watched Alabama's last few games. and it hasn't been a pretty sight either. So, but yes, I think that you could probably say it does. Although they do have a pretty uncanny way of like breaking loose Isaiah Satania and just having 75-yard touchdown passes to him wide open. I don't know how that happens, like coverage busts that have like kind of inflated the numbers a little bit. But yeah, I think that I would have a hard time with either of these offenses thinking that this is a team that can go drop 28 points, 31 points.

Starting point is 00:37:24 And you know who also doesn't run the ball real well? Oklahoma. In the Alabama game, they average 2.6 yards of carry, 3.2 against Missouri, 2.7 against LSU. They're not running the ball well either. So what you're going to have is how do John Matier and Ty Simpson handle pressure and who's got the better receiving court? And whose defense can make a play that changes the moment? minimum who has the better receiving core first game did you hear me no who has the better receiving

Starting point is 00:38:03 core Alabama okay do you know the last time Ryan Williams had more than 50 yards in a game it was a long time ago Tennessee game over 25th South Carolina South Carolina it's right after that yep so he had three games he hasn't had a game that I can see in his stats here there's a Jeremy Bernard's the best receiver on the field Isaiah Satania is number two right and I didn't know if there was a debate about

Starting point is 00:38:34 who was number one there I would entertain that debate I would I think it's Bernard but if you wanted to make a case for Satania I'm okay with that and then Dionne Burks has flashed potential but so is Ryan William so I don't know

Starting point is 00:38:50 so you got those two then it comes down to like the Isaiah Horton lots ear brooks josh quavis yeah piece of it for alabama um so so you are you leaning towards alabama after what you you you the conversation you led last week about you know getting quavis back and i'm picking alabama in this game are you i'm telling you right now i'm picking alabama i'm going to just stick with my gut i'm going to go with oklahoma i think oklahoma at home with that defense. I think they'll figure out a way

Starting point is 00:39:24 in three weeks off to scheme up some plays. I like the receiving core enough. Is John Mateer your second choice of quarterbacks or is that another heated debate in this game? You love Simpson, so maybe I'm just. Yeah, but Simpson has not been great the last few weeks. And Simpson is, as Simpson looked very hurt against Georgia. Is Steven Chin coming to the game?

Starting point is 00:39:48 I don't know. I think what she is okay. Well, I mean, it's just his presence, like that way that he walks into that stadium, I think changes the tenor of the fan base. I'm going to take Oklahoma. You know, I think it makes sense for us to be on opposite sides in a one-point game. And we'll see what happens. We'll see what happens.

Starting point is 00:40:10 All right. Now, you and I will be leaving Norman driving south down I-35. Psychopathic plan, dude. I don't know if you actually sought this through. This is a psycho move on our part. I would rather deal with nobody else, but this isn't normal behavior. Listen, the gas station stops are going to be tremendous. Do we even look and see if there was like a flight from Oklahoma City to Houston?

Starting point is 00:40:31 That would be stupid. Would it be stupid? You'd be much faster drive. It would? Okay. Yeah. I mean, once you go to the airport, get the rental car, drive to college. Yeah, no.

Starting point is 00:40:42 Just drive from Norman to college station. Okay. We're going to make this happen. All right, Texas A&M hosting Miami. No one doubted that Texas A&M belongs in the college football playoff. Miami, of course, was a subject of very intense debate. And yet, it's a three and a half point spread. The Aggies are favored by three and a half at home,

Starting point is 00:41:05 which means on a neutral field, this would probably be a pickum. So the question is, which Miami are we getting? Are we getting the Miami that improved throughout November, or the Miami that dropped games to Louisville and SMU, which A&M are we getting, the one that looked amazing for most of the season, the one that got way down against South Carolina had to come back,

Starting point is 00:41:28 the one that lost to Texas at the end of the year. Which version of these teams are we getting? So, Ari, we need to know which version of these teams we're going to see. I do want to point out, because we talked a lot about Miami as the week progressed championship week, as they tried to politic to get into this thing. One of the points that Mario Cristobal continued to make was that Miami got a lot better as November went on.

Starting point is 00:41:55 And one person who had a great November was Carson Beck. He was spectacular in the last four games. Now, the last four games were against Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh. Very different than the competition he'll be facing in College Station. So against an elite defense, can Carson Beck, do what he was doing because he was carving up teams in November, averaging, you know, over 10 yards per, per attempt, very efficient.

Starting point is 00:42:25 His lowest completion percentage in the month of November was 75. That's pretty good, wouldn't you say? So this is really hard for- Can you do it with Cassius Howl chasing you? I don't know. What I do know is this is a very hard game for me to pick because these are my two babies, You know, because I'm a huge A&M homer and a huge Miami homer. And I cannot wait to get there.

Starting point is 00:42:52 The question to me that we have to kind of decipher is, how good do you actually think A&M is, or do you think that a byproduct of A&M success this year was an incredibly advantageous SEC path? And then on top of that, good question. you also have to decide whether or not you think that Carson Beck is going to continue that ascension because what are the two games that Miami's lost have in common? He played terribly in both games. And that interception situation could rear its ugly head at the worst possible time in one of the toughest road environments in the entire sport. Yeah, the stadium will be shaking.

Starting point is 00:43:36 Like there's a reason when the college football game came back, they made Kyle Field the number one toughest stadium to play. and I don't think it was this year, but I will tell you from playing the game, at least. The Stadium Pulse rocks there. And in real life, it certainly does because this is a, this will be the loudest environment by far that Miami's had to play in this season. Yeah, I just like really like the way Miami is built, Andy. I love their front seven on defense.

Starting point is 00:44:02 Malachi Tony is turning into one of the best receivers in the entire sport as a true freshman. Carson Beck is playing well. Like, I think I'm going to take points here, man. Can we talk about how much I love this receiver matchup, by the way? Sure. Because I agree with you that Malachi Tony is special, special, and is going to be one of the best players in college football going forward. But what Casey and Concepcion and Mario Craver have done at Texas A&M

Starting point is 00:44:27 has been nothing short of spectacular. Now, Colin Klein, their offensive coordinator, who's leaving to become the head coach at his alma mater, Kansas State, has done a phenomenal job with them and Marcel Reed, building an offense around what they do really well. But I agree. The big play potential in this game, because that's the thing, either way, you've got two defenses that are great at getting after the quarterback. Because we didn't, we mentioned Howell, we didn't mention Rubin Bain and Akeem Messador, who for Miami, excellent at pursuing the opposing quarterback.

Starting point is 00:45:02 So you have, this is going to be a game of huge plays going both directions. you have huge negative plays caused by these great pass rushers. You have huge positive plays caused by Malachi Tony, caused by Mario Craver, caused by Casey Concepcion. So you could see some massive swings. You know what this game could look like is the A&M's game at Notre Dame earlier this season, Ari? Yeah, I think I could look like that.

Starting point is 00:45:32 Andy, you know what I have been thinking? you made this comment about the Oklahoma-Alabama matchup last week of whoever wins this game could go on a real run. I feel that way about this game. I agree. And I don't know if either team is up to beating Ohio State. But if they do, especially if A&M wins and they're playing basically a home game in Dallas. Anybody who can beat Ohio State can win the next one.

Starting point is 00:46:04 championship. So, like, they have a pretty tough second round matchup, you know, staring them in the face, whoever wins, but I think these are two very good teams who were undervalued throughout the entire season. Like, I think that the entire Miami discourse with the Notre Dame playoff stuff completely overshadowed the fact that they're really, really good. Like, really, really good. So, you know, I don't know. I thought this game would be closer than three and a half. And I think maybe if this were two and a half, I might think a little bit differently. Um, but. But I'm going to just take the points between two teams that I think are evenly matched. And I actually think that this is the most compelling first round matchup of the entire slate. I definitely think it is, too. I think it is the one between two teams that, because I have a hard time making a case for Oklahoma or Alabama to win the national title. I feel like I can make a case for whoever wins this game to be able to beat Ohio State and win the national title. Well, they'd have to beat Ohio State and they have to beat Georgia or Ole Miss. Like, then they have to, like, it's going to be a rough road for anybody.

Starting point is 00:47:07 This is the toughest path for anybody starting at the first round, by the way. Correct. You probably get a nice little date with Georgia or if Ole Miss beats Georgia a nice date with them. That's a pretty rough. But both these teams are built to play against teams like that. I agree. Both these teams are built on the lines of scrimmage to play against teams like that. And I think that's why we feel more confident in both of these teams in that situation.

Starting point is 00:47:32 I'm also confident that no matter who you're rooting for, you need to crack a Modelo for this game. The official beer of the college football playoff, grab yourself, Medellas. Stay game day ready all season long. Ari got the Madelo Negra right here. My grocery store just started carrying Madelo Negra in cans. That's going to be huge for pool season. Huge. But no matter how you get your medello, it is always time for Madelo when there's football on

Starting point is 00:48:01 because nothing goes better with football than Madelo. Ari, who you got in this game? I'm going to take the points. I think that this is a game that Texas A&M most certainly could win. I think that the spread should be closer. I know that there's a home field advantage at play here, but three and a half is more points than I thought Miami was getting, and I thought there was actually a chance that Miami would be slightly favored.

Starting point is 00:48:30 Maybe that's just my student. stupid perception, but I really like what the way that they're playing. I like what they bring to the table. Tough environment. Don't feel strongly about it, but I think I'm just going to take the points and close my eyes. So interestingly enough, Carson Beck did play in the SEC, but has never played at Kyle Field. I did mention that Miami hasn't played in a stadium this loud.

Starting point is 00:48:50 Carson Beck has. So it's not going to be new to him, but I do think it's going to be a very intimidating environment. I think Texas A&M is going to be ready. I think they're still smarting from that loss to Texas. I think the Aggies win and cover. Yeah, and you know what I love about these picks, Andy? It's like we're on the same side,

Starting point is 00:49:08 which are different sides of all of them so far. And it's just like, that's why the first round is going to be awesome. So I'm super excited to get into the final two here. I don't know if we're going to be on different sides of these. Well, they're big spread. Let's go to Oxford, Mississippi. Tulane goes to Oxford as a 17.5 point underdog. Obviously, Tulane coach John Somerall,

Starting point is 00:49:30 is the new Florida coach. He is coaching the Green Wave. Ole Miss had Lane Kiffin lead the Rebels through this season. He is the new LSU coach. He is not coaching the Rebels now. Pete Golding will be making his debut as the Ole Miss head coach in this game. These two teams played this season in this stadium. Ole Miss won 45 to 10.

Starting point is 00:49:53 And it was an interesting game, Ari, because this was in a period. Remember Ole Miss had just played Arkansas. their defense had not looked particularly good in that game. And you kind of wondered, okay, is this team going to be one of those that scores 50 points but gives up 45 points every game? And they slapped Tulane down. Tulane could not do anything offensively. Ole Miss was up, well, Ole Miss was up 23 to 3 when Tulane went on a drive and then got bogged down and Ole Miss had a goal line stand to stuff them. but Ole Miss got up in this game 45 to 3.

Starting point is 00:50:33 There was never a chance that Tulane was in this game. So the question I have is, given that, and we've seen Ole Miss's defense against offenses that are in the college football playoff, and they scored on them. But Tulane didn't. Is this just going to be a smothering like that first game? Yeah, I mean, like I feel like we,

Starting point is 00:50:58 as people in this position always want to just kind of like read the tea leaves of what's happening off the field and is all Miss heartbroken because of the drama that happened is Tulane going to have a hard time given their coaches moving on to Florida like I understand like the thought process on this

Starting point is 00:51:15 but like on situations like this Andy sometimes like the analysis is they've played already one team has way better players at every position there's just probably going to be a blowout right like I don't know what would have to have changed is old miss broken as a roster or are they galvanized by the fact that the person

Starting point is 00:51:34 that replaced Lane Kiffin is somebody from inside the building that wants to be there? Well, and remember Charlie Weiss Jr. and the offensive staff are back to run the offense. They're going to LSU at the end of this playoff run, but it's not like they have an entirely new offensive

Starting point is 00:51:50 staff here. This is the same offensive staff minus Lane Kiffin, which obviously is a big loss, but one, you really only need Pete Golding's defense to do what it did the first time around to win this game. Yeah. And you know, Andy, the, the college triple playoff wouldn't be complete with a few blowouts,

Starting point is 00:52:09 right? Like in the first round. And I would really rather than not be any. I would rather there not be either, but there's going to be. And I think this is going to be one of them. Yeah. I'm afraid that it's going to be pretty ugly just because, again, we've seen Ole Misses defense against some.

Starting point is 00:52:27 pretty good offenses, and they've been able to move the ball a little bit on the rebels. Tulane couldn't move it at all. At all. Right. So this just may be a fast 320 beats your slower 280 situation.

Starting point is 00:52:44 Yeah, I think that's what it is. So, I don't know. I'd love to give you more detailed analysis of this game. And you know what I would also love, Ari, if this wasn't a blowout. because I do think the one thing the college football playoff needs is one of these massive underdog teams to rise up and really and upset somebody. Like we almost had it with Arizona State, Texas last year. But that's different because that's a power conference team against a power conference team.

Starting point is 00:53:14 The college football playoff will not ascend to everybody's favorite tournament until one of these underdogs wins a game. And I just, I don't, I don't see it. this match up this too andy is like one of the number one talking points on the internet at the moment and for the past seven days has been should the g5 even be included in this thing um and like i don't know if it's an insult but g5 teams can't and aren't assembled to play with teams like this and like i don't know where you stand on whether they should be included or not but it would be very interesting to throw i say let them play a few times before we make that decision like they've been excluded the entirety pretty much.

Starting point is 00:53:55 I mean, Cincinnati made it that one time, but the system basically excluded them. You've given quite the burden to teams like Tulane and James Madison to perform in this situation because the future of their inclusion in this sport could be hinged on how. Earn it. Like, it's not a charity. You want to play and earn it. Like, go, go beat these teams or at least give them games. Be competitive.

Starting point is 00:54:17 Like, yeah. I'm sorry that you've got to carry the banner for everybody else, but didn't that, isn't that what you wanted? Yeah. You know, there's certain things that you're physically capable of doing. Like, for instance, you could probably go try to run a marathon. I would like to be included in the ability to run the marathon if I wanted to. It doesn't mean I'm going to show up at the, you know, at the race and do it. By the way, I forgot about this, but I was bitching to you about this yesterday.

Starting point is 00:54:44 What's it with the marathons in these cities and them closing down half the streets for the entire day on Sunday? It's a big event, Ari. It's a big event. Do you think I'm insane for thinking it's insane? Yes. It took me 31 minutes to get to a grocery store two miles away from my house because there was a marathon. It's your fault for not knowing there was a marathon. There's something I could have done otherwise.

Starting point is 00:55:08 You could have gone to the grocery for some other time. I just feel like, you know, if you're running 26 miles, there's like ways to do it without it being in every major street in Dallas, Texas. But, you know, okay. That's the whole point of the marathon. You do it in a prominent place. wild it's wild times i think i well like i appreciate you guys want to exercise we're gonna need we're gonna need you to lose a running bet so i can make you run i'm gonna turn you into a runner i agree that i need to run more and be in better shape i still don't understand why they

Starting point is 00:55:36 have to inconvenience everybody in the city that lives in so that they can exercise outside and i live around you isn't it's all about you it's all about you how dare you it's not it's not all about you it wasn't about me yesterday already i picked the game i did only Miss minus 17 and a half. I also will take Ole Miss to cover. I would love if Tulane would make this a game. Please make this a game, Tulane. Make it a game.

Starting point is 00:56:02 Make it a game. Let's move to Eugene, Oregon. James Madison, your 12 seed, headed to face the five-seat Oregon Ducks. The Ducks are 21.5 point favorites. Ari, news out of Eugene on Monday morning. Evan Stewart practicing. Wide receiver, Evan Stewart.

Starting point is 00:56:23 practicing. Evan Stewart was supposed to be the Ducks, number one wide receiver this season. He got hurt in preseason camp. Or would he hurt in spring? I think he got hurt in the spring. He's been hurt for a long time. He's been hurt for a long time.

Starting point is 00:56:35 Yeah, I think it was the spring, actually. It was the spring. That's right. Okay. So he's not practicing. There is a chance they could get him back during the college football playout. I do not think they need him for this game.

Starting point is 00:56:45 Because remember, we're talking about against the spread. We're saying Oregon's a 21.5. Favorite. Dan Langing and the Ducks don't care about the spread. They just, as long as they win by one, they're not worried about it. I don't think they need Evan Stewart to win by one or more in this game. But the fact that he might be back and the fact that Decorian Moore might be healthy now, that's their freshman receiver who was awesome, who was dinged up in the beginning of the year,

Starting point is 00:57:08 or in the latter part of the year. Kenny and Sadiq, obviously, they got him back and got a lot out of him toward the end of the season. Ari, if this is a team that is fully healthy, this is a potential national champion. If this is a team that's fully healthy, this is a potential national champion. And they're laying 21 and a half points against an overmatch team that may or may not deserve to be in this thing. But then again, we have people who get mad when we don't include everybody. I want to be nice. But this is, I've thought a lot about the Duke, JMU thing.

Starting point is 00:57:42 And it's so funny because, like, as the year goes on, and you and Ari are, like, screaming at each other about the rankings and who should be ranked higher. who do you think would beat who? It's like, who do you think would give Oregon a better game? JMU or Duke? Well, we litigated this already, but the committee decided it was JMU. So that's who's here. They were wrong. I'm going to lay the 21 and a half. I don't really know what I can say from an analytical standpoint here. That's going to change your mind on that.

Starting point is 00:58:11 Yeah, we need Wayne Knight to say hello, Newman. Actually, he would have said hello, Jerry. But, Andy. By the way, was the actor who played Newark. Newman on Seinfeld. Wayne Knight is the best running back at James Madison. He averaged 6.7 yards to carry. I don't think he'll average 6.7 yards to carry against Oregon's defense. It's just like I know that we want to give as much time to all the games and we do care about all the games. We'll be watching every minute of this game like all the other ones. But if there are 44 total starters in this game, Oregon has 44 better players at all those positions. So if that's the case, what analysis can I provide outside. of maybe something crazy will happen. Like, what's the 20-minute discussion about? And again, maybe if something crazy happens,

Starting point is 00:58:57 then it becomes an even more popular sporting event. But I just don't know that this is where the crazy happens because Oregon is, again, if healthy, one of the three most talented teams in the tournament. Yeah. And I'm going to stick to my theory, too, that Oregon, this season for Oregon is the inverse of last year, under the radar during the regular season makes a run in the playoff last year ran through the regular season as the wire to wire number one team in the country got blown out in their first I think it's going to be different this year I think they're going to make a run and I think it's going to be a pretty easy path on December 20th

Starting point is 00:59:35 all right I also will take organ to cover the 21 and a half I would love this to be a closer game but Ari's right if we if we examine the rosters that it's going to be 44 to 9 nothing. So it's going to take James Madison's best game. Obviously, we mentioned in the Ole Miss Tulane game, the head coach is in their moves. Bob Chesney, the James Madison coach, is headed to UCLA. The winner of this game is headed to the Orange Bowl to play Texas Tech. And we can talk about that after this game ends, but I will say in Oregon, the heavy favorite it winds up winning, Oregon, Texas Tech could be an absolute banger way to start your New Year's Day game watching, because that would be the first game New Year's Day. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:00:33 But I think that by and large, we have a really good first round. Maybe a G5 team will throw in something to, you know, give us a little curveball. But, you know, I'm really looking forward to this weekend, and I'm happy that we're going to both games that have two G5. teams playing against each other. It's going to be great. It's going to be fun. Those games in Norman and College Station, no idea what's going to happen. Cannot wait. We have a psycho travel plan. We'll see if that works out. You're going to have to let me drive a car at a time point. Probably. Probably. Make sure you subscribe to the On3 Sports YouTube page to never miss a show because

Starting point is 01:01:16 we got a lot of emergency shows. We had one of earlier about Dylan Ryola. There may be more quarterbacks than the portal by the time we come on tomorrow. In fact, Ari, let's just make the decision, executive decision. We're going live tomorrow. We're doing it live. We're going to do it live. We're going to do it live.

Starting point is 01:01:31 We're going to live on Tuesday because God knows how many more quarterbacks are going to hit the transfer portal. But we will talk to you then.

Andy & Ari On3 - Florida QB DJ Lagway to enter transfer portal | What’s next for Lagway and the Gators? CFP First Round Picks

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