Andy & Ari On3 - Georgia is a ROAD DAWG against Texas | Will Alabama-Tennessee GET WEIRD?

Episode Date: October 14, 2024

Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker,try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. This show is sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES Thank you to Gametime for sponsoring today's episode! Planning your college football travel for this season? Gametime has tickets to every game. (And every concert and comedy show.) Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed. (0:00-0:43) Wendy's Saucy Nuggs - Try today!(0:44-1:20) Intro(1:21-19:38) Nebraska at #16 Indiana(19:39-21:08) Gametime(21:09-27:21) #22 Michigan at #24 Illinois(27:22-34:30) Auburn at #19 Missouri(34:31-40:34) South Carolina at Oklahoma(40:35-43:17) PrizePicks(43:18-51:01) #7 Alabama at #11 Tennessee(51:02-55:18) #12 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech  in Atlanta(55:19-57:57) Iowa at Michigan State(57:58-1:03:11) #6 Miami at Louisville(1:03:12-1:08:10) #8 LSU at Arkansas(1:08:11-1:11:41) #17 Kansas State at West Virginia(1:11:42-1:21:20) #5 Georgia at #1 Texas(1:21:21-1:21:58) Conclusion; See you tomorrow! Happy Monday! Andy and Ari are picking the games of week eight, and there are some very intriguing spreads… Nebraska at Indiana (-4.5) Total: 51.5 Alabama at Tennessee (+2.5) Total: 55.5 Auburn at Missouri (-6.5) Total: 51.5 Michigan at Illinois (+1.5) Total: 42.5 LSU at Arkansas (+2.5) Total: 56.5 Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech (+8.5) Total: 50.5 Iowa at Michigan State (+6.5) Total: 40.5 South Carolina at Oklahoma (-2.5) Total: 41.5 Miami at Louisville (+4.5) Total: 60.5 Kansas State at West Virginia (+2.5) Total: 53.5 Georgia at Texas (-3.5) Total: 54.5 Watch us on YouTube instead! https://youtube.com/live/maGG-bq_vCwHosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

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Pick a flavor, grab some extra napkins, and prepare to nug like you have never nugged before. For a whole new way to nug, it's got to be Wendy's. At participating, U.S. Wendy's. Welcome to the show, Mariano. Wendy's at participating us. Wendy's. Oh, one day. And Ari, there are a lot of intriguing lines. There are some very,

very interesting games that we need to pick because we are into that part of the season where we're getting not necessarily elimination games, but some. We have one that I feel like is an elimination game this week. We have another game. The stakes of it not going to sink anyone, but very intriguing in Bloomington, Indiana, where the Hoosiers trying to stay undefeated,

Nebraska playing for bowl eligibility, the highly elusive bowl eligibility for the Huskers. Who would have thought that one of the best games of the weekend would be Indiana-Nebraska in the middle of October? I'm happy that that's the case. I feel like if you listen to the show at the beginning of the season, a little bit in the preseason too, where we said watch out for Indiana,

and we said we think Nebraska could be 6-1 or 7-0 going into the Ohio State game. So I feel like we were kind of on this one. Yeah, I mean, we could just get into it right now. We're usually wrong, but this time we actually were right for once. You know what? When you think about how many predictions and how many big high high level topics we're

covering like our conversion rate's not terrible like i don't think that we're wrong like i mean we're wrong because everyone's wrong about everything all the time yeah but like i think that we do a pretty good job of kind of having a good pulse of the way things should look um and like i i will push back on that a little bit because like if you are indiana you have to go into this game feeling like it's an elimination game like if like Kurt Cignetti since he got there has had a temperament of we are here to win yeah we are here in a Big Ten program that's making a ton of money and has a ton of resources even though it's not traditionally a dominant place I think that he looked at it from the right standpoint of like why can't we build something here with the resources

of being in the big 10? And I think that that's smart. And I think it's great. And honestly, easy to root for, because there's not a lot of people who take jobs like that, who come from that angle. But like, if you actually want to play that game and you want to talk about making the playoff, because it's a, it's a big deal for Indiana to make a bowl most years, let alone make the playoff.

So if you want to have the playoff discussion, then let's just have it in an adult real way. Like Indiana, if they want to make the playoff, cannot lose this game. Right. Like that's the bottom line. So like they really need to be 11 and one. Yeah. And it's like, sure. Technically, their schedule is not great. Technically speaking, you can be like, yeah, Indiana

could lose to Nebraska and went out, but they are playing Ohio State on the road in November. If they beat Ohio State, forget everything you just said. You're in the playoff. We're trying to be realistic about it. They're probably going to be a 17 point underdog in that game. I'm not saying it's impossible that they win. Ohio State's defense gave up some stuff on Saturday to a team that has really good receivers. I don't want people to take it as like, oh, I think Indiana is a second

class. I think they are in my bracket right now for a reason, but they're in my bracket because I project them to win this football game. So like for me, I really do think that it's important to be honest about it. Like if we're going to expand this world, Andy, of college football

playoff stakes, then we have to, like for me personally, if you're listening to our show, for you personally, I'm going to tell you the truth. And it's like, I think part of, and I see this a lot in just coverage of the sport, where we have to, because there's 12 teams and there's a bunch of new teams that are in the mix,

like we have to like flower everything up. Like, oh, this gonna make it or this team's gonna make it or oh they have a chance or they have and it's like yeah there's a lot more i do i feel like we have to we i we don't have to be but i feel like we tend to be nicer to the ones that aren't normally in the mix of course it's okay i think that we should be nicer but let's let's take a page from kurt cignetti's book because kurt cignetti went into into Indiana and said, we are going to win. He came on this show at Big Ten Media Days, and I asked him about going after Michigan and Ohio State in his just-got-the-job, I'm-at-the-basketball-arena-trying-to-hype-everybody-up speech. And he's like, ah, yeah, you got to shoot for the moon.

I don't think he actually meant that. I think he meant we're going after Michigan and Ohio State. Yeah. And so let's not treat them with kid gloves because I think this is a really interesting matchup for them. Ari, Ari, I want you. But Indiana fans have come at people hard. Like they are like we are good enough to beat LSU. Like if you want to be in that ballgame, then we're not going to handle you, like you said, with kid gloves.

And the fact of the matter is I've had a rule in my entire you know how i have all these rules you have a lot of we're going to write these down actually this is an off-season project producer river making note uh when the season ends we're we're going to write down ari's rules for life and roll them out one per day rules for college football coverage are okay that's our very i want your rules for life rules for life is june rules for college football coverage are okay that's our very i want your rules for life rules for life is june rules for college football coverage we'll do it like everywhere has a life as you know it might check me into a facility when we're done with those ones but and this is a lot of it too is i had a mentor growing in this business doug lamouris you know him well like

he is a king of the north yeah he is a king of the north has downloaded a lot of stuff on my brain over the years because i started at the Cleveland Plain Dealer as a very young person in a pretty important position under his guidance. And you cannot have a lower standard in column writing or in any way that you attack a beat that's lower than the coach's standard. Right?

Right. Like, you can't, like, you're not going to be nice to Indiana because they're in their lowly Indiana. When the person who's leading the program doesn't want to be treated that way. So if you don't want to be treated that way, Kurt said,

Eddie, the thing that is most lovable about this man is that he doesn't, he doesn't give crap. He wants to be treated. He wants to be held in the same regard. Indiana is a very good football team. I'm not going to sit here and blow smoke up someone's ass and say I think they're going to beat Ohio State.

That said, it is an elimination game because if they lose this game and then they lose to Ohio State, then you're likely not looking at an Indiana playoff team. Let's call that what it is. Well, let's have a little trivia.

I'm bad at this. It's embarrassing for me me what is the lowest point total that indiana has put out this season um it's in the 30s right that's correct 33 31 yeah 31 against fiu in the season opener since then now western only was 77 that's a that's a team. So this, these are all big 10 games. The rest of them, 42, 52, 42, and 41.

Now I'm sorry. 52 is Charlotte. So not all big 10 games, but that's UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, and Northwestern Charlotte, by the way,

two and O in American athletic conference play. So not, not terrible. These guys are scoring a ton of points. Yeah. This is the, okay. Now that we've seen Ohio State's defense against Oregon, I'm not so sure Ohio State's defense

is that much better than Nebraska's defense. Michigan's defense is probably pretty good. There's a good chance Nebraska is either the best, second best or third best defense they will play all season. And well, there's not a good chance. They're definitely one of the top three, but might be the best defense they will play all season and well there's not a good chance they're definitely one of the top three but might be the best defense they play all season so can they win if they have to score in the in the high 20s low 30s can they win this game

i think they can yeah okay i think we need to unpack what you just said though later in the show i don't know ohio state has a bye week this week, so we might not be talking about them. We have all week. Okay. Lots of episodes. That thought, I think, is like a segment. What do you think about Ohio State's defense? The fact that you saw receivers getting – they were giving a big place.

It reminded me a little bit of two years ago. It wasn't just receivers. Yeah. They let them run the ball, too. But back to this game. This is a game where it will be difficult to run the ball. Nebraska's defensive line is really good. I am excited to see this because.

First of all, I don't know that Nebraska has played. I guess Colorado would be a good example of a dynamic offense that Nebraska played in Nebraska terrorized Shador Sanders. That game was never close. The pressure Nebraska can get up the middle is unique. But a lot of really good defenses, like you see with South Carolina, they have those two great edge guys and they terrorize people from the edges. But Nebraska terrorizes you up the middle.

And there's so little time to think, to react, to do anything when you have the polar bear and the vanilla gorilla coming straight up the middle that it does change the math. It changes the clock in the quarterback's head. That said, Curtis Rourke has played a lot of football. He has played. This is a veteran of Maction who's played in some in some games where just stuff goes awry and you've got to deal with it. I love having that kind of veteran quarterback

in this game. And nothing goes more awry than in a Mac game on Tuesday night, let me tell you. Exactly, that's what I'm saying. Andy, so I think that the expectation is that this is going to be a game one in the 20s, right? And if you go and you look at Nebraska's I think they get in the 30s. I do.

They get in the 30s against everybody. What's the total of the game? 50? 50 and a half? Yeah. It sounds like just basic bad at math podcasting here, but whoever scores in the 30s is probably going to win if the total is near the mark. And if you look at Nebraska's offense,

Dylan Riola's a very exciting young player, and I think he's going to be, if not already, pretty good. 28 against Colorado in a game that they probably could have scored more in. Their lines just mauled them. Yeah, they took their foot off the gas on that one, yeah. But 24 against Illinois in a loss. 28 against Purdue, which is a team that's barely, you know, with a pulse.

And then 14 to 7 win against Rutgers last time out. This isn't a team that's lighting up the scoreboard yet. Now, we might get to that point, but I really do think that Indiana could score 28 or 31 and win this game and maybe even cover. See, that's 31 31 seems like the magic number 31 20 31 24 seems like a realistic game i don't know they're going to get there hunter in the chat and i i put this one up because i think this is representative i think there's a lot of people who i'm not going to call hunter a casual but I think there's some people who don't follow the sport day to day that are still a little surprised by this Indiana thing that he said, we're hyping

up Indiana right now. It's just like, have you, have you watched anything this season? Of course we're hyping them up. This is, this is pretty incredible what's happening. Yeah. You know, the thing that I've been criticized a lot for, um, in my time doing these podcasts and my writing career is that we only pay attention to the big teams. And my response to that has always been, Andy, well, if you want more attention for your team, then go do something. Yeah, we pay attention to the teams that win, that have a chance. So they're winning every game that they play, and they are a five and a half point favorite against a team that is much better than they've been in the past with one of the most exciting young players in college football should we ignore them like is that what we should do so producer ever put a poll up in in our chat and it's it's got a 56 votes right now

does indiana have a real shot at the cfp it is 50 50 deadlocked right now 50 on each side i do think they have a real shot but i i do tend to but that poll should be like like this is the thing that I just, people said no in that chat because it's like, oh, they're Indiana, they're not going to make it. But that's not what the poll question is asking. The poll question is asking, do they have a legitimate shot? And the absolute 100% answer to that question should be yes.

Do they have a shot? They have a shot. Of course they have a shot. Do they have a realistic shot to make it? Of course they do. I am with you, though, that they need to win? They have a shot. Of course they have a shot. Do they have a realistic shot to make it? Of course they do. I am with you, though, that they need to win this game. For sure. Because we're also not accounting for losing a game you probably should win.

Because that could happen down the stretch. Yeah. And Indiana has a pretty manageable schedule. And part of the reason why I put them in my bracket, I've said this a hundred times, but like they have games that they should win on the surface, but they have Nebraska, they have Washington, and they have Michigan State, and they have Michigan.

Those are all four games that they could theoretically lose if they lay an egg. Well, I'm not guaranteeing a win against Michigan. Yeah. Okay. That is a testament to the job that Curt Ciannetti's done this season, that you just talked about Indiana as if it is a certainty that they will beat Michigan.

Well, it's also – Think about that. It's also the reality that Michigan can't throw a forward pass right now too. Or they can throw a forward pass, but when they put the quarterback who can throw the forward pass in, it takes away from the running game. Yeah. Yeah. So a month from now, things are going to be a lot different.

I'm still like, I'm going to give a column away that I'm going to write in November, and it's going to make people angry. But I'm going to. It's been in my head. You're going to write something to make people angry? It's not to make people angry. It's how I feel, and that happens to enrage people.

Yeah, how you feel enrages a lot of people about a lot of things. Yeah, right, including my wife. Ohio State is 100% going to beat Michigan this year, I think is a little bit. I think we need to pump our brakes on that because Michigan has a month to prepare. I love the pre-hyping of the game that we've already determined is already over, but you're right.

This is not something we should just preordain right now. I agree. Well, here's the thing. Michigan today is a problem with what they have, right? Michigan today is bad. But if they put Tuttle in or they figure something out or someone takes a big step forward and they become a team that can score 20 or they become a team that can score 20 or they become a team that can score 24

with that defense with that defense yeah on the right day ohio state being what they are this year is that not a duplication of the 90s oh my god is that is that not what that is oh my you you just went there with the ryan day john cooper i mean no but i'm just saying it's got everything i can't wait to read this column i I mean, history repeats itself. If there is a mental ailment there, that's stopping Ohio state from playing well in that game. And Michigan is just good enough to put a functional game together with a really good defense.

Like that's not a automatic. We are driving the Indiana fans crazy. But the reason why I brought that up is it's not an Ohio state discussion. It's that if Michigan plays Indiana two weeks before that game, so if Michigan gets to that point where I think that that's a rational column to write in a month, then that's no gimme for Indiana. If Michigan can fix itself. It's Michigan.

It's not a gimme for Indiana in any circumstance. I know. I know. I just think Michigan stinks right now. I think they stink. Indiana fans are going nuts right now, and I don't blame them because we've hijacked this Indiana segment, and we're talking about Michigan and Ohio State.

No, no, no, no, no. I'm not being hijacked. We are being the worst of the national media. Because we have this feel-good story about Indiana. Nebraska's trying to make a freaking bowl game for the first time since 2016. But the reason why I brought that up is because I'm trying to explain to you why my analysis of the Indiana-Michigan game is that Indiana will probably win.

Let's talk about that in a little bit. Let's talk about Indiana-Nebraska now. We have to pick this game. Indiana is a five and a half point favorite. Nebraska cannot wait to see how many... I don't see how many,

because I don't know how many tickets Nebraska fans get for this game. Because normally this is one of those where Nebraska fans take over the stadium. Yeah. I don't know what's going to happen. I think Kurt Cignetti is just going to do another email blast. Tell him the student body. I think he might buy all the tickets. Yeah.

Tell him the student body not to study or to do any partying, that there'll be plenty of time for that. And that letter, that email that he wrote to the student body a few weeks ago, yeah, you know, you're borrowing my language now, electric, because he was like, when we're 5-0 and celebrating our win over Maryland, coaches don't talk like that.

He does. I'm excited. One thing before we pick this game. This is where Nebraska got last year and stalled out. Now, it was later in the season when they got here. I realize it is an artificial construct. This sixth win puts you in a bowl game. But for Nebraska, they need it.

They need the extra practice. They need all of that to be what they want to be. How gratifying would it be for them if they could go on the road and make this happen right now and be 6-1 going into the Ohio State game, the bowl eligibility monkey off the back. Yeah. It's over. Absolutely.

I mean, if they don't make a bowl this year, that would kind of be like the old Nebraska just revealing itself. Oh, they're going to make a bowl this year. But how quickly can they get eligible is the question. How quickly can they get eligible? How quickly can they get eligible if they could beat an undefeated team on the road in mid-October going into the Ohio State game at 6-1?

I think that you could say they could probably split the rest of their games and feel really good about the season they had. All right. Indiana's a five and a half point favorite. Who you got? You go first, please. Oh, okay. I'm sorry, Coach Siggs. I didn't expect to get this many points.

I'm not going to lie. If this had been a one-and-a-half point spread, I'm probably picking you guys. But Nebraska's playing for something, too. They've got a really good defense. I don't need you to win by that much for me to win. But I also think Nebraska can win this thing straight up. Give me Nebraska plus five and a half.

Yeah. My thought was I want to pick Indiana to win, but I don't want to pick them to cover. And that seems like a pretty safe bet because Nebraska does have a way of losing one possession game. And, but like, we're just pressing everyone's buttons today.

I mean, it's, but like what you said is true, though. Like if Nebraska comes out and wins the game, not shocking at all. No. So like I think this is a pretty difficult thing. I do think that the spread is a little bit larger than I would have anticipated it being. That said, Indiana is coming off an open week.

They're healthy. Yeah, that's true. I guess that means nothing. Still think exactly what I was going to say though which is uh five and a half is a lot of points so you also take nebraska to cover i'm going to take nebraska to cover indiana to win all right yeah all right i i am very excited to watch this game this is a this is a nice little noon window i put indiana in my bracket man i'm the hero of blooming bloomington absolutely hero of they love youomington. They love you. Yeah.

They don't love you as much now because you picked Nebraska against this red, but they still love you. I think they'll take a win by half a point if I give it to them. This is not a game that I anticipated talking about for this ad, but I think we should.

Nebraska-Indiana. Do you need a ticket to that game? You can still get in for under 100 bucks, but just barely. The better tickets into the triple digits. And that is the Kurt Cignetti effect. That is what has happened at Indiana. Go to game time for all of your last minute ticket needs. They have tickets to Nebraska, Indiana.

They have tickets to Alabama, Tennessee. You remember what happened the last time Alabama played in Knoxville? It was a pretty wild scene. Do you want to be part of that scene? Do you want to, well, I don't know if they're going to be in a goal. Well, that's a discussion we can have later. Ari, would they even bother tearing down the goalposts if they beat Alabama this year? I don't know. But if you want a ticket to that game, they got tickets. If you want a ticket in Bloomington to Nebraska, Indiana, GameTime has your tickets. Use the GT Picks feature to see the best deals relative to the market. You will always make sure you get the best deal with the GT Picks feature. If you use the code STAPLES, you get $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. So go to GameTime, download that app, find the tickets you need,

whether it is football, comedy show, concert. I may be going to Metallica in June, I just found out. Of course I'm going to GameTime to find the best deal. Use that GTPix feature. So easy. You know you are getting the best price you can get. Download GameTime, code Staples, $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Go get some tickets. All right, Ari. We now have to move on,

as much as I hate to move on, but we got to move on. We got to pick some other games. We were talking about Michigan, so I say we keep talking about Michigan. Michigan is going to Illinois. They are a one and a half point favorite on the road. This is a very interesting game. Illinois took a massive lead against Purdue and then took a massive, you know what, and had to win the game in overtime 50 to 49. But Brett Bielema feels like the kind of coach that watches this michigan film and goes we're in my wheelhouse now baby this is this is like turning back the clock to 2010 big 10 football if i um was good at photoshop i would take brett bielma and put a yellow jacket on him and put him behind a tree rubbing his hands together.

Oh, yeah. Like the Spice Adams. Absolutely. Without changing anything else but the color of his jacket. Because, you know, he always wears those. Like, yeah, exactly. Look at it. That's exactly what I'm talking about.

Hey, put him in an orange jacket. And he's like, yeah. I don't love what I'm seeing from Michigan right now. And Illinois is the exact type of tough to exist in a Big Ten West game. Now, I don't know if Indiana's defense or sorry, not Indiana, Illinois defense. Indiana on the brain is able to corral the running game or if they're going to find something with jack tuttle have we even gotten to the point where we know he's playing yet or well i think he's playing i mean he played against washington it seemed like that was the direction they've decided to go now uh i i'm not sure yet if that's the direction they should go because listen after watching iowa and washington

like i don't know why they didn't just run the ball every play against yeah washington i think They should go because, listen, after watching Iowa and Washington, I don't know why they didn't just run the ball every play against Washington. I think they might have had a better chance of winning the game. But against Illinois, if you try that, I think Illinois will figure out a way to stop you. So having the more diverse offense against Illinois probably gives them the better chance to win the game. But it's not a great offense. But your thought process is that if Tuttle plays and that takes away the quarterback as a runner, which then makes it harder to run the game but it's not a it's not a great offense but your thought process is is that if Tuttle plays and that takes away the quarterback as a runner which then makes it harder to run

correct correct correct and and you you're relying more on you know completely on your offensive line to open holes for Mullings and and but if he can complete a pass doesn't it make it less likely that they sell out for the run yes yes it does so I don't know no no if you can complete a lot of passes or you can complete passes way down the field. Because if you're completing six and seven yards through the air passes, you don't really have to change that much defensively. You just have to tackle well. But the thought is that he can throw the ball downfield much better

than the other two. But we are pretty sure that Illinois is going to be a sound tackling team most of the time. So that's the thing. Unless you can really stretch them, you don't add that advantage or get to the point where you can use your run game because they are stretched out.

So they got to go deep on them a few times to open that up. Yeah, or at least attempt to. I also love Indiana figuring out how to win in a shootout. It's not what they wanted, but they did do it. Yeah. Did I say Indiana? I'm in Illinois. I was going to correct you.

I'm so sorry. They're both I's, and we don't talk about either of them all that much traditionally at the same time. I can see how that happens. Let me ask you this. What if Luke Altmyer was Michigan michigan's quarterback oh my god we would potentially be talking about a playoff team they'd be on the bubble yeah right yeah yeah they might have had a win in a game that they lost uh they did win a game without a quarterback against usc but that's becoming less and less impressive oh i still think it's pretty impressive to beat a team as good as USC the way they did.

I like the way that Illinois matches up with Michigan at home. Yeah. Yeah, I do too. And Luke Altmyer has been really fun to watch this year. So this is a tough one to pick because I do think it's, and Vegas, obviously, same thing. They got a one and a half. I do think if Michigan can throw the ball a little bit,

they're going to win this game. I just don't know what, I don't know what they're going to be. Joel Klatt, our pal said, you know, says that their ceiling is higher with Jack Tuttle. I think I would agree with that.

I think that's true, but I need, I need to see a dynamic passing game, not just a passing game. Cause going from no passing game to a passing game is really not any better. You've got to have a dynamic passing game where you really can stretch the field. So we'll find out if they can do that. Since I haven't seen it yet, and since I know they're not selling out to just run the ball,

I'm actually, you know how I feel about running the football. If you can do it, and it's the only thing you can do, then lean really hard into it. Yeah. I don't like this half measure stuff. So you got to prove to me you can throw. So I'm going to take Illinois until Michigan, Michigan, you know, maybe you can prove me wrong and that you can have a dynamic passing offense,

but I'm going to take Illinois right now because I don't believe it yet. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. I think Illinois is a tough team. And if you've watched them play at all this year, and I know you have because we've seen some pretty cool Illinois bangers, this is a team that went on the road and beat Nebraska. If you can do that at home against Michigan,

if they haven't figured out how to throw the ball at all i like the matchup here i do too it's i think it's gonna be a fun game so i'm excited to see this one and here's the thing you have to say that we didn't say what's that they played so illinois never had really a chance to beat penn state right but they were in the game the entire game yes and like penn state is a much much better version of michigan like much better yeah so changing where the game is being played i think i like the the math there all right we'll see we're both picking the illini let's move to the sec a team that has to win a game

against a team that probably has to win a game. Auburn heads to Missouri. Tigers on Tigers action. Missouri is a six-and-a-half point favorite at home. Ari, Auburn has to get off the schneid. So Auburn is at Missouri this week. They're at Kentucky next week. They then go home to play Vanderbilt.

They cannot lose all three of these games. I've said that. And I remember I got on the Auburn message boards after they lost to Oklahoma. And I said, look, it's fine as long as you don't just lose the next four games. Well, they lost to Georgia, which we expected. They can't lose the next three. They can't. the next three. They can't.

They have to win one of these, preferably two. They're not that bad. They just keep throwing the ball to the other team. Is this the game where they finally stop doing that and actually win a game? I'm always with you in the same mindset of like, I'm not going to predict something to happen until I can see that it's possible. It's the same thing that we just went over with Michigan. It's like, what

would have to have changed for me to be like, yeah, they're not going to throw picks in this game. They do it every time they play. Every single time. Now, the thing that I'm interested in here is how good you think Missouri is. I don't know that they're that good so like because like Missouri was a team that was a fixture in everyone's preseason top 10 they have a very manageable schedule and you know it was a team that I thought was going to make the playoff just based on the path but what I saw in the A&M game, like A&M manhandled them physically. And like Auburn is kind of built like that.

Yeah, A&M's better physically than most teams in the country. I think we're starting to realize that, that they're better on the line of scrimmage than a lot of teams. But Auburn is decent on the line of scrimmage. Auburn's offensive line is actually, it's strange because that's been Auburn's Achilles heel for God knows how long like even even the team that won the national title and the team that went to the national

title game in 2013 like their offensive lines were not great those years they're not bad on the offensive line this year they can run the ball really well they can open holes and auburn always has has dudes off the edge so but they run the ball well they do and like i didn't think missouri did a particularly good job of stopping a and m from running the football so but they run the ball well they do and like I didn't think Missouri did a particularly good job of stopping A&M from running the football so like that to me is like such a weird thing to analyze when it comes to Auburn because on one hand that team is like two or three catastrophic offensive turnover mistakes in every game that you don't know when they're going to happen or how they're going to happen, but they just keep happening. But then on the other hand, if you actually watch

them play, they move the football quite easily. Well, the thing is, can Missouri force that? Because we just saw Oklahoma's defense in person. That's a team that can force a lot of turnovers against a really good offense, against a good offense or an adequate offense, they can force a ton of turnovers. Missouri's not that. Missouri isn't as good as necessarily the defenses that Auburn has just played. I don't know that they're as good as Arkansas's defense. No. I think this is a much more even matchup.

I think this should be a pick'em. So I know that you just professed that my belief is that I got to see it first. I don't know that I got to see it with this many points. I'm going to take Auburn to cover here. I think Auburn money line might be the play here. You want to go that far? Go for it. I might go that far, but also too, I think they could win the game even with a mistake. be you want to go here you want to go that far go for it i might go that far but also to like don't i think they could win the game even with a mistake like i like i'm not going to act like oh well peyton thorn's got to come out there and play john elway football like i think that they're

going to throw picks but i think that they are going to be able to move the football pretty regularly throughout this football game and missouri's offense looked like they're going to move the football during the football game is that what are you becoming like a professional they're going to move the football it's it's my favorite thing that announcers and coaches do I hope I don't when they add when they add the word football in front of the game and they talk about moving the football as if there's another kind of ball that might get so you know supplant or replace like we're going to replace the ball today with a shuttlecock I think that Auburn is going to move the ball.

Thank you. In the match. Okay. Thank you. Just don't say score the basketball. That's all I ask. I like that one. Yeah.

Redundancy is like my thing, especially when I'm being condescending to people. Oh, I like say things like, you know, like if. So you visit the Department of Redundancy Department when you get condescending. Okay. Like we got you. Like someone's like, why didn't you pick up the phone? And I'll be like, because I was on a commercial aircraft. I make it longer just so they know that I'm annoyed with them.

That's what I do. So, yeah, no, I think that Auburn's going to be able to move the ball pretty well. And Missouri's offense looked – I didn't love the body language in the Texas A&M game either. And not that – Right, and the UMass game doesn't tell us anything. Yeah. So, yeah, I'm going to take Auburn to cover here. I don't know if they're going to win the game, but I do think if they can just have, it doesn't

even have to be mistake free. It has to be catastrophic, debilitating, mistake free, which they haven't played one yet. Well, I mean, listen, if Auburn loses this game, they absolutely could lose to Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Like we are in the absolute danger. Oh, Vanderbilt's just scared the crap out of them right now. I think that Auburn, like the thing with the SEC is, and maybe this is more of a situational thing than just an actual analysis of like these two teams. But like Auburn, it's hard to envision that they're going to go through the entire schedule and not win three times. Right.

Like, so situationally speaking, like this seems like a spot where, you know, and even Florida has the dead cat bounce every year where things aren't going very well. They might've just had that. And they might've just, but that's what I'm saying. Like Florida just wins a rate. Like Florida always seems to win a random game. You don't think they're going to win every year. Like, I think that this might be a good spot to be like, oh, look at the scoreboard on Saturday afternoon and Auburn's beating Mizzou in the third quarter.

Auburn, if you take away the catastrophic turnovers, play-to-play, down-to-down is not bad. They are probably kind of an average SEC team. They are not an O for the SEC team. They just aren't. And if Missouri is an average for the SEC team, they probably shouldn't be. This should be a pick-em game. I think Moneyline is a pretty...

Moneyline is the type of play here where you... Well, say it. Say it with your chest. Let's go. I'm saying that the safe play here, obviously, is to take the points, but Moneyline would be like hammer Auburn before the game, wait for them to get up 10-0, and then find a middle there somewhere. That's how I would do it. But think that auburn is going to be in

a position to win in the fourth quarter so you're gonna take the money line you're gonna i'm gonna take the money line because it's a podcast and like whatever yeah that's it like what do we do it looks better on the graphic yeah well we'll see what happens and it'll get make people be angry but like i don't you think it's crazy no i don't think it's crazy at all i i don't think it's crazy i'm shocked that this game has as big of a spread as it has because i don't think the teams are all that different all right let us stay in the sc let's just let's talk about a big one in the sec let us talk about south carolina oklahoma well that's a big one too okay let's do that one first i was actually joking i wanted to actually talk about the big one. Let's do that one first,

and then we'll get to the elimination game in Knoxville. Okay. But let's talk South Carolina-Oklahoma because we just saw Oklahoma in person. I'm working on an Oklahoma column about their offense and how the seeds of this were actually planted two years ago, three years ago, and it's a disaster,

and it's not something you can get out of this year, but we're going to find out if the Oklahoma coaches who get paid a lot of money are going to earn that money because they're facing a pretty rough situation. They don't block very well. Their best receivers are hurt. We don't really know if Michael Hawkins Jr. is a good quarterback. We don't really know if Jackson Arnold's a good quarterback. They've never really been given a chance because they have an offensive line that's not very good, and their receivers are all hurt.

They're now going to play a team that should have won in Tuscaloosa. South Carolina players should be righteously pissed at themselves because they should have beaten Alabama. They have great edges. They should be in the backfield all day against oklahoma they should absolutely terrorize michael hawkins jr i am stunned that oklahoma is a favorite in this game yeah i don't know if you guys notice this but andy is in my house still right now and last night i was watching sunday night football just recharging my batteries for the week and andy was on the

other end of the couch like breaking down oklahoma film so like he's just yellingcharging my batteries for the week. And Andy was on the other end of the couch, like breaking down Oklahoma film. So like, he's just yelling, yelling at my computer. Like you run a speed option where you don't block either guy between the guy who has the quarterback and the guy who has the pitch man. You can only not block one. You only read one guy.

Yeah. And I, it'll be a good story when that runs. I don't know when it's going. I'm not going to speak for you, but I can't wait to read it. I'm hoping tomorrow morning we're shooting for tomorrow. Yeah, and it'll be a good story when that runs. I don't know when it's going. I'm not going to speak for you, but I can't wait to read it. I'm hoping tomorrow morning. We're shooting for tomorrow morning. Yeah, so you are the guy here.

South Carolina has been a team that I feel like you've respected probably more than most people do this year. Yeah, and probably a little too much. But I look at the way they played against Alabama. I think Shane Beamer would tell you it was a sloppy game. They should have won that game. They should have won it. And it,

I would be stunned if South Carolina goes to Oklahoma and loses. Like if they go to Norman and lose this game, they should be, they should feel very bad and be very worried about the rest of the season. Like South Carolina should go win this game. And so that's where they're at. They need to win too because they got housed by Ole Miss. They gave away a game they should have won against Alabama. I know that you're thinking, okay, there's no shame in almost

losing them, but when you still have to play Texas A&M at Vanderbilt, which is not easy missouri and at clemson like there's not there's no easy wins in there yeah i think this is the other than wofford this is the easiest win you have left and it's not easy it's the hardest thing too as a as a fan when you look at your schedule and there is only one loss out of the three and three that you feel like you you should have like. I think I would even go out and say that South Carolina should have beaten Alabama. They should have.

I don't think that Alabama... I don't think they should have beaten LSU. I think after Lenore Sellers got hurt, the way they kind of turtled, and they lost. They should have lost that game, but Alabama, they should have won. But I think that's the thing that's painful, is that, well, the quarterback got injured. They were kicking the crap out of him.

Here's my other thing. If they just play Lenora Sellers against Alabama and don't start out with the Robbie Ashford or Lenora Sellers, I think they probably do win. So now here's the thing. This defense that Lenora Sellers and company have to play, Oklahoma's defense is nasty. I love Oklahoma's defense.

And I feel so bad for those guys because they're playing opposite that offense. and it's one of those things where if the offense can't do anything and i think i i fear that's another like i don't know south carolina is as good as texas's defense but good enough probably that it limits oklahoma's offense the dam eventually breaks no matter how good your defense is if you just keep giving the ball back. This is something the Iowa defenders over the past few years could probably tell you. But you just can't keep giving the ball back. And you're going to have some bad field position situations eventually because of that.

So I'm going to take South Carolina in this game because I didn't think Vegas was going to give me points. I'm going to take South Carolina money line in this game because I don't know how Oklahoma is going to score like watching what we watched on Saturday they might get you know I'm less confident whatever you cooked up in the in the open date Oklahoma offensive coaches like you need to throw it in the trash it was this weird like on like on the line, they're running counter. So you've got pullers coming from the backside. And then you've got the quarterback running sprint draw where there's a fake handoff or a real handoff to the back going the other direction away from the pullers.

And the quarterback's rolling. And it's all too much. And it takes too long when you play teams that can get after your quarterback that can get in the backfield quickly. And you don't have the offensive line to block these guys and hold them for a long time. Keep it simple. The best thing Oklahoma can do in this game is keep it as simple as possible, run plays that hit quickly, and then try to use South Carolina's aggressiveness against them as they try to get up the field that's their best bet if they come out with all this slow

developing crap that they try to run against texas it's gonna be a ugly ugly game yep i'm with you all right so now we say that watch them come out with a a better game plan and and and they they went when they came up with Texas? Yeah. That's good to know. Well, we'll see. But I'm not – based on what I saw that they came up with, with two weeks to prepare for Texas, not optimistic.

All right, let us go to Knoxville now. Actually, before we go to Knoxville, let's talk about prize picks. We've got to talk about prize picks. Best daily fantasy game in America. Download that app. Use the code STAPLES. Play $5. Get $50 instantly.

So Ari, I did not even realize I had a better week than I thought in the prize pick. So Friday night, I was sure. I was sure that I was winning this thing. I had Haj Malik Williams with more than 213.5 passing yards. And I had Sam Levitt, the quarterback for Arizona State, more than 199.5 passing yards. Because I had Sam Levitt, the quarterback for Arizona state more than 199 and a half passing yards. Cause I was confident Arizona state was going to beat Utah, but I figured to do that, they were going to have to throw the ball a bunch. They were going to have to, to, to light it up through the air. They didn't need that. They let it only through for

a high, I believe 154 yards, but they still won the game. Hajmalik Williams obviously had a very good game against Utah state UNLV rolled, but Arizona state didn the game. Hajmalik Williams obviously had a very good game against Utah State. UNLV rolled, but Arizona State didn't need to throw as much, so I did not win there. Sam Leavitt came out of the game for a portion of it, too, which doesn't help your cause. But I did have a good day on Saturday. This is the one I threw out to the people. So if you guys looked at this, if you saw my tweet with this on Friday and you did this, then there you go. Kyle McCord, more than 319 and a half passing yards. Kyle McCord has gone more than his passing yards

total every game this year. So he did it again against NC State. I didn't have a lot of faith in NC State's defense. Garrett Green, more than 248 and a half passing yards in a loss against Iowa State. He threw for 293. And then Jeremiah Smith, longest reception, 29 and a half. His longest reception was 38. Jeremiah Smith is a big play waiting to happen. He's just too strong. He doesn't even know how strong he is. That's why he got called for OPI. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. That OPI was pretty brutal, but you know what? He's got a pretty

bright future ahead and congratulations to you for smashing a play there. Feeling pretty good about that's the one I gave to the people. Because we want the people to win. Exactly. So download PrizePix. I can't guarantee that the next time I give you that play that it's going to be as awesome as this one, but this one was pretty great. Download PrizePix. I can't guarantee that the next time I give you that play that it's going to be as awesome as this one, but this one was pretty great. Download PrizePix, use the code

Staples, play $5, get $50 instantly. The board will be getting populated. Usually with the college football, the board starts to get populated usually around Tuesday, big time on Wednesday, big time on Thursday. But of course they have every sport. They've got e-sports. They've got the NFL. They've got the NBA is about to start the NHL, uh, Monday night football tonight. So if you want to sprinkle a little on Monday night football, go ahead. Use code staples, play $5, get $50 instantly. All right. All right. On to Knoxville. The last time Alabama went to Knoxville, it was an iconic game. It was a just melt your face, storm the field, sink the goalposts in the Tennessee River, everything.

And we're watching what happened. Biggest FOMO I've ever had in my life, Andy. I know. I know. I was at my house like, why am I not there? Why am I not there? So it was amazing. This does not feel like that. This feels like two teams that don't know what the hell they are right now. And they got to win.

This is exactly the same feeling I got last week going into the LSU Ole Miss game where whoever loses this game, I do not feel confident that they can run the table. So if you want one of these teams to make the playoff I think they got to win this one because I think they're going to lose another one if they lose I'm looking at the graphic on the screen here and like Alabama at Tennessee plus two and a half is exactly what I thought it would be a month ago but the circumstances of this plus two and a half are so much different than it would have been like I thought that both of these teams would be undefeated um well especially after the Georgia game. And being in the position that they're in right now

with this elimination, quasi-elimination type scenario is not how I drew it up. So the questions that we have, too, is, A, the thing that I heard five times in the press box during the Alabama game on Saturday, which is, is Alabama mid? Okay, what's causing Alabama to play these games closely? What caused them to get straight up beat by Vanderbilt? I don't think their defense is that good this year.

So is their defense not very good? Okay. That's good. Then on the Tennessee side, it's like Nico is somebody that we thought was a emerging star in the sport. And I'm not willing to say that he's not anymore, but hasn't played the best few games and their offense has not been nearly as explosive like that that game that we just watched on the clips there like we have that like Tennessee on our head of like that they're gonna that's not this Tennessee at least the last few weeks so what the Tennessee offense against Florida was much more

Joe Milton than Hendon Hooker there were a lot of wide open receivers who got airmailed in that game. And I'm a little concerned that this isn't turning around for Tennessee. I was thinking, okay, maybe Arkansas had a good game plan for them, that Arkansas has a better defense than I think people realize. But I know what Florida's personnel is on defense. They should not have been able to hold Tennessee down the way they did. And Florida's defense played its ass off. Like they were incredible in that game. But Alabama has much better players than Florida on defense.

Yeah. I'm not sure Tennessee is going to score a bunch this game. Yeah. So sounds like I know where you're leaning. I am because until I see Tennessee scoring with regularity against a decent SEC defense, I, I, I'm not going to believe it because they're as good as Tennessee's defenses and it is very good and it can force turnovers. You saw, I mean, Tennessee's defense saved the Vols in the Florida game, forcing that fumble, the Graham Mertz fumble on the goal line. James Pierce forced that fumble. Save the game.

They lose if they don't force that fumble. They're going to have to do that over and over against Alabama if their offense isn't going to wake up. I just feel like I got fooled with Tennessee. I feel bad about it. I actually left the Oklahoma game thinking this team could win playoff games this year. It feels like the play calling, Hypel and Nico, they don't have the mind meld yet. They had the mind meld when Hindenhoeker was there, where they knew the call was exactly what Hinden was comfortable doing,

and it looked perfect. Even when the plays didn't work you saw where they were going with it it doesn't seem like they're comfortable i will say and it's it's strange and maybe this is something that they this is anecdotal for me i need to go back and and actually run the numbers on this but at least in the florida game it seemed to me that when they threw on first down, the offense ran more smoothly. Like you give, you give Nico a high confidence throw, especially like a drive opener, like a first, a first play of the drive, let him throw and complete a pass.

It feels like they're more confident as an offense after that. And you can set up, you know, let's say you, you, you, you know, six yard gain, then you set up a Dylan Sampson run, and then you're sitting there at third and two or third and one, and you feel pretty confident. You can either run for that or throw another high confidence pass. And then, then you can get your tempo going after that next first down. And do you, do you know, do you throw deep? Do you, do you run and then throw deep on second and short? Like you add. Everything opens up for you. You're not seeing a lot of series like that from Tennessee right now.

Yeah, and for Tennessee to make the playoff this year, we thought in the recent past that they had to split against Alabama and Georgia, especially now having lost to Arkansas. You definitely have to. So this is probably your best shot of doing it considering your home and you've got to travel to georgia in three or three or four weeks after this um this is a game that i felt like they were built to win now it's just the alabama brain of like well you know they're still gonna i am not looking at alabama i'll i'll hand up here i'm not looking at alabama like saving our alabama right. I am not looking at Alabama. I'll hand up here.

I'm not looking at Alabama like Sabanera Alabama right now. I'm not looking at them as this unbeatable or you have to play the perfect game to beat them. You don't have to play the perfect game to beat them. But Tennessee does have to be better offensively than it has been the last two games if it wants to beat them. And that is why I'm picking Alabama in this game. Yeah, I think I'm going to pick Alabama in the game too, but I think that I don't feel great about it.

No, I don't. I don't feel great about either. I wouldn't feel great picking either team in this game. I don't know how it's going to go. I think there's, you know, the Neyland stadium of it all is going to play into it, but I also can a scenario where jaylen milrow does take over and we've seen jaylen milrow and ryan williams and company play really well against a good defense i mean they went out they got up 28 nothing against georgia and for a half there was nothing georgia could do that would stop them so if you can do that against georgia you can do that against tennessee too and that's why i just i more, at least I've seen that from Alabama. I haven't seen this from Tennessee other than,

you know, the NC state game. So, and I, again, like I said earlier, I don't trust NC state's defense. So that's,

that's really it is, is Alabama's got to prove they can do it. I've seen Alabama do, or I mean, Tennessee has to prove they can score regularly. I've seen Alabama do it. I mean, Tennessee has to prove they can score regularly. I've seen Alabama do it. So I will take Alabama. And River just put up a poll,

and the results are exactly what you would have thought with who's going to win the game with 41 votes on the live stream right now. Alabama 51%, Tennessee 49%. Yeah, this is not an easy pick. This is a very difficult pick. Also, exciting electric game to be excited, you know, look forward to watch. Oh, the atmosphere is going to be great.

I mean, the Neyland Stadium atmosphere for the Florida game is great. I'm sure the Tennessee fans were frustrated most of the night because they felt like they should have been up more, but at least they did get the win. Yeah. And so I think they're coming in

probably more optimistic than they would have had Florida pulled that out. And let's be real here. If Billy Napier goes for two there, it's probably 50-50 at that point. So that was a very narrow escape by Tennessee. We'll see if they can cash in on it, but I am taking Alabama in that game. Let's go to Atlanta for a neutral site game two miles from the home team's campus. You don't see this very often, but Notre Dame is headed to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium. So probably like a 50-50 crowd split here, I would think. I think this is a dangerous game for Notre Dame, Ari. I think Notre Dame is hot. I think Notre Dame is hot. I think Notre Dame is ready. I think Notre Dame is going to make the playoff, Andy. Okay. I haven't changed my mind.

No, it is a dangerous game, though. Georgia Tech is a spunky team. You've watched them play enough this year to know that if things are going well for them, if Haynes King is feeling himself moving the ball on the ground a little bit, finding receivers, Georgia Tech can be a thorn in your side. Yeah. Well, and look, that North Carolina game, Haynes King didn't even throw particularly well. I was surprised that they put up as many points as they did, really with most of that on the ground. So I think it's going to take

a better passing game from Haynes King to beat Notre Dame but I'm interested in this Georgia Tech defense against the the Notre Dame offense because they've feasted on bad teams but when they've had to play pretty good defenses I don't think they've doesn't feel like they've scored a bunch of points yeah like Louisville set them up for some scores a couple of touchdowns Louisville basically gifted them I don't know that Georgia Tech's gonna let that happen yeah I mean Georgia Tech is uh five and two this year but have been in every game that they've played lost by three to Syracuse was in the game uh on the road at Louisville like this isn't a team that you run over and has no chance to win. So the question here, I think more so than anything,

is how confident are you that Notre Dame is week by week escaping the horror that it's been in this year with that NIU loss because it does seem like they're starting to come together a little bit. I think we're looking at the navy game at metlife stadium next week as the one that's the truly scary one i think this is i think this is just as scary as the navy game for them yeah and they don't both run the triple option anymore no no that i i actually think if paul johnson were still a georgia techs coach i'd feel much more comfortable with notre dame going into the navy game because they would have just played similar

concepts. But no, this will be very interesting because Georgia Tech will hit you in the mouth up front. I think the style of play that Notre Dame embraces is similar to the style of play that Brent Key likes to embrace at Georgia Tech. I think this is going to be a fun game. If you're going to give me that many points, I'm taking Georgia Tech. Yeah, I think I'm going to take Georgia Tech. What?'re going to give me that many points i'm taking georgia tech yeah i think i'm going to take georgia tech what to cover mr notre dame are you i think i'm going to take that eight and a half a lot in this game we're just agreeing on everything it's crazy yeah i know i gotta stop it and i wish i could change my pick i'm not gonna lie it's not a bit i actually think notre dame no no i want you i want you to say what you actually what i

actually think is that notre dame is going to win this game but i don't think it's going to make the playoff. I want you to say what you actually think. What I actually think is that Notre Dame is going to win this game, but I don't think it's going to be a blowout, like some of the games that they just had. I think it's going to be a very tough game. I think it's going to be a tough game. I think that going to Atlanta is going to be interesting. Riley Leonard, I think, has been playing much better as of late. I know that there was some concern that he was going to shut it down

earlier in the year, right? Yeah. He got injured and wasn't able to perform um no i i feel like something clicked after that like it may be a decision hey i'm all in this is this is this is happening yeah because i do feel like their offense has been significantly better i mean he was 16 for 22 for 229 yards and three touchdowns maybe the defenses they're playing yeah but and the defenses that they're playing aren't very good but i think notre d Dame has proven that can exist in a tough game like this because Georgia Tech plays physically.

And I think Notre Dame is built to match that. Now, that might not mean that they're winning by 100 in the third quarter, but I think they could win by seven and feel pretty good about that. Yeah. All right. That was not what I expected. I did not expect R. rd to agree with me on this but then navy i don't know a week from now when we're picking that game that's going to be

a difficult thing i mean navy's had a fairly easy schedule to this point so we can talk about all that next week but notre dame's got to get past the yellow jackets first that's the that's the tricky part all right let us move to a game we not a game because we're because we're not going to pick this game against the spread. We're just picking the total. We don't need to spend much time on this. But in case you've been paying attention the last few weeks, we are now an Iowa over podcast. So this total has actually moved since it opened. It opened at 40 and a half.

Iowa at Michigan State. Iowa's favored by six and a half on the road. Don't care about that. The total is 41 and a half Iowa at Michigan state. I don't, I was favored by six and a half on the road. Don't care about that. The total is 41 and a half Ari over, over, over, over, over. We're picking the over. We are in Iowa over his podcast. Yeah. Okay.

I can't, I can't even pick the under anymore. Like we, cause we are contractually obligated to pick the over. Yeah. On this show. And it's, it's going to go over. I'm telling you, right. Cause I was going to score like 30 in this game. And then Michigan state to score a little.

Why don't you actually be a man, grow some hair on your chest, and say that Iowa's going to cover the over by itself? Because I don't know if they will. They almost did against Washington, though. They were one point away. It was 40 and a half. They scored 40. Yeah.

They're back, baby. Oh, listen. Okay. I only said we're going to spend 10 seconds on Iowa just to say we're an Iowa over podcast, but let me ask you this one, Ari. How do you think Iowa fans feel about this season where they are better on offense,

clearly better on offense, what they've always wanted, but they're now not quite as good on defense and they've lost to Iowa state. Probably very similarly to the way that LSU fans feel about being much better on defense this year, but not nearly as good. Or Oklahoma fans feel about the flip of, I mean, Oklahoma fans is Oklahoma is the exact inverse of Iowa.

Right. And Oklahoma, and Oklahoma. Yeah. The Oklahoma fans spent the Lincoln Riley years going, love this offense. But God, if we just had a defense and now it's completely flipped on them, Iowa, they got the better offense. Like, because what did we always say? If you could just have an adequate offense, I think they're actually a little more than adequate offensively. Yeah.

I mean, it was dominant defense. Their defense has been fine. Yeah. In every game that they've played against. It's just not otherworldly like it was the last couple of years. I think that beating Washington 40-16 wasn't the score I was anticipating. That's the thing. If that's the Iowa we get the rest of the year, good lord. Good for them. I don't think they scored a defensive

touchdown in that game. That was all offense. I wouldn't bet my life on that but i'm fairly certain that's the case yeah so yeah they didn't all right iowa over i think they're gonna cover too but we don't we don't have to worry about that all right moving on let's go to the acc miami back to action for the first time since their comeback in berkeley they're at louisville they're a four and a half point favorite. I think this is going to be another hard game for them. This game is interesting. This is actually the reverse or the inverse, to use the word you just used, of the Miami-Louisville game last year where Louisville came in with all the expectations. They're trying to make the ACC championship game

and Miami, as an underdog turn that game to a slog that Louisville eventually won can Louisville turn this one into a slog and then beat Miami that's that's the question because I do think this is going to be a difficult win for Miami but I still think they can win it. Yeah, I don't know how your thoughts have changed on Miami because of the last two weeks. I'm escaping the Hail Mary. Yeah. I have legitimate questions.

So I think that on paper, this was supposed to be one of the ACC matchups of the year, right? Like two teams that are playing against each other that have a chance to win the conference. But Louisville, I'm not 100% out on. I mean, the two losses that they have are pretty excusable to me. Notre Dame and SMU.

And they were in both games. And the Miami blowout over Florida, though impressive, has kind of come back down to earth a little bit. So I do think that I like Miami to win this game roughly by seven. But I don't know. Somebody asked me on a podcast last week that said if you could pick a legitimate national championship contender that isn't in the Big Ten or the SEC right now, who would you pick? And Miami was really the only other one I could come up with and feel good about right because you've seen clemson against georgia so you already yeah you already feel like that's probably

another one of the answers though but like who like miami if miami is the only other team nationally that isn't in those two conferences that you can even put in that discussion like they should win this game very handily right right? Or they should go in there. I think this is going to be hard for them. And I think Louisville, this is Louisville's last gasp here. This is, again, not an elimination elimination game. Because Louisville isn't out. Maybe they are out of the ACC championship picture if they lose this.

Because they've got one conference loss to SMU. Yeah. The Notre Dame game, obviously not a conference game. If they take a second conference loss, chances are they're probably going to take a third, but also chances are they then won't win any tiebreakers that would get them into the conference championship game at six and two in the league. So they pretty much have to win this game. And Louisville also plays Clemson.

I mean, Miami just has so many better players. True. They have so many better players. So what do you think is going wrong? They had a lot of better players have so many better players. So what do you think is going wrong? They had a lot of better players than Cal, too. I know. What do you think is going wrong with them? I think they are playing like a Mario Cristobal coach team traditionally plays.

Yeah. Where they have better players, but they don't blow people out. Yeah. I mean, those Oregon teams had better players, but they didn't always blow them out. Yeah. I mean, they've avoided the catastrophic LOL Miami losses, right? That hasn't happened yet.

Both of those things could have happened in their last two games. I think that's progress. Progress to not lose the games, for sure, but how does that impact the way that you view them playing a team that they should beat on the road? I am going to take them to cover here. Me too.

Really? I thought you were going to take Louisville. I was sure i am going to take them to cover here me too i think they can do what really yes i thought you're going to take a little i was i was i was sure you're gonna take a little no no no i think miami's gonna cover this one i don't know they're gonna cover it by much though i think this is going to be a one possession game in the fourth quarter and look if miami can make it where it's not if miami can win this game comfortably that is a that's huge i i think that they're going to win the game comfortably. I think that they had a week off to reset. That was a very emotional two weeks. I just think Cam Ward is a dog.

If you go back and watch some of the clips, there was one clip from the Cal game where they were down big and Cal jumped off sides or was substituting somebody in the middle of the, of the snap. And Cam Ward like put his hand out to the ref, like, come on, man. Like in the middle of the play and then threw a dart to Restrepo or somebody right over the middle. That's like, that guy just has a, an it factor about him.

I think that I like Miami to not just get the cover here, but I think to get back on track to like making us feel like they can do something. It went from Miami is awesome to Miami is just old Miami that hasn't lost yet. I think that a win in a pretty convincing fashion in this game gets you back onto the other edge of the way you view them.

Producer River tells us we've agreed on every game. The only really disagreements we've had you pick two money lines where i pick the underdog i'm going to fade every one of these picks by the way okay and with real money yeah because like there's no way but this is proof positive we don't we don't set this up beforehand we don't oh no you we we agree on this one so i've got to i got to change we don't talk about the games until this. It's Monday. When would we talk about this? This is real.

We just happen to be agreeing. I think we may disagree on this next one. I'm curious to hear what you have to say. Can I pick first so they know we're not rigging it this time? Sure. LSU goes to Arkansas. LSU is a two and a half point favorite. LSU coming off a massive win against Ole Miss. Keeps LSU in the playoff race. Does it change how you feel about LSU going forward? Because I thought the way they won that game, especially where Ole Miss looked like they were going to win it for most of the game. LSU hangs in, hangs in, hangs in, and then comes back. And Garrett Nussmeyer, like you look at his stat

line. It was not the prettiest game for him. He was not very accurate all the time, but when he needed to be accurate, he threw some dimes. Yeah, so I think that the thought process here is that Arkansas, which beat Tennessee the last time out and played a pretty close game against A&M and lost a thriller against Oklahoma State is much better than their... maybe even record,

but certainly their lack of ranking would show. Yes. Like, it's a tough team, and it's at Arkansas. Yes. So I think that the layup thought here was, okay, LSU got that nice win. You know, they beat Ole Miss,

but this is, like is where you stumble. But I think because Brian Kelly has been so excellent his entire career in getting to the 10-win plateau. He wins the games that his teams, by and large, are supposed to win. My gut feeling is I want to pick Arkansas because I want to pick arkansas because i want to keep banging home the drum of like yeah this is a really good fun team to watch but they lose this game and still be a really good team to watch yeah i think that lsu is going to cover

this game and i think that that it's going to set up what hopefully will be an absolute banger in college station in two weeks um that happens when they play at a and m because a and m i think has mississippi state mississippi state this week which they should beat without you know struggling too much and then we're going to have a really good kyle field type scenario like that's the way i see this matching up we finally disagree yeah so lsu fans feel free to get mad at me about this because i i i'm gonna admit I screwed up the pick last week when I picked Ole Miss what I should have thought about like I did not take the nighttime at Tiger Stadium aspect of it into account as much as I should have I didn't take and I said it when we previewed the game I said Tiger Stadium's been a house of horrors for Ole Miss when they're when the teams are fairly even but one team is has a team has a really nice home field advantage

where their crowd really gets into it, and when their team is good, it's a very tough place to play. I should have taken that into account because they were close enough to even that I should have just said, you know what, LSU's at home. I'm going to take the home team here.

And as far as LSU's defense goes, I, the, the edges at LSU and T-Bob Abare tried to tell us this last week, like they are so much better than they were last year. So shout out Kevin Peoples, shout out Braden Swenson. You know, Peoples is the, the, the coach that they took from Missouri. He came with Blake Baker, just does a great job with edge rushers. And you saw it with Darius Robinson last year, who was a first round pick out of, out of Missouri. They're, they're not what they were on defense.

So like, I don't, I'm not going into any more games thinking somebody's going to throw all over LSU or that they're going to, to score 50 points on LSU. I'm done with that. That said the same mistake I made last week, I'm going to try not to make again, where I think these two teams are pretty even.

So I'm just going to take the home team. And that's Arkansas. That's what I should have done last week. And I should have taken LSU. I'm going to take the home team this week because I feel like they're fairly even. And anybody who's had a team go to Arkansas when Arkansas is good knows when that place is going when they're

good it's a tough place to win yeah I I just think that it's this is the point where LSU turns the corner they have been living in the shadows for the first five weeks six weeks of the season and that's what happens when you lose the U.S. senior opener but I think that if we um really do think that this is a 10 win team that this is a game that they would traditionally win all right well I this is one I'm so excited if this is a game that they would traditionally win. All right. This is one I'm so excited to see because I don't have a lot of confidence in that pick. As you see, I'm just picking based on... I just wish Harold Perkins wasn't injured. Just for their sake. He's so, so good. Well, and remember, the last time LSU was at Arkansas, Harold Perkins won them the game. Arkansas mucked that game up. That was not a great Arkansas team,

but pushed LSU to the absolute brink and Harold Perkins won them the game. So this will be a very different experience in this game. I think probably if LSU wins, it's Garrett Nussmeier throwing them to a win. It is those edges getting tail and green on the ground, making Arkansas one-dimensional, making it where they have to run. Arkansas is really good at running the ball,

but you're going to have to throw a little bit to beat LSU. Yep. Ari, we haven't had the coin minted yet, but slightly different spread than what we thought. Kansas State at West Virginia, we were going to have a big 12 decision coin minted that had just plus three and a half minus three and a half on either side. This one's a two and a half point spread. Casey is a two and a half point favorite on the road coming off a win at Colorado, which that was a

heck of a game. I wish Travis Hunter hadn't gotten hurt. Would have liked to have seen what would have happened in that game with him at full strength the whole way. But West Virginia loses to Iowaowa state but that is their first big 12 loss west virginia is not out of this thing yet but they are this is again not an elimination game but an elimination game and really whoever loses this game is in deep deep trouble when it comes to making the big 12 title game so look at the eight teams in the big 12 yeah one yeah we got the big 12 standings up on the screen and BYU, Iowa state, Texas tech are the lone undefeated teams in the league. K state,

West Virginia, whoever loses this game, I don't think they're making the title game. So your playoff chances ride on this game in Morgantown, Garrett green or every Johnsonson who you got um yeah so i think i picked west virginia last week against iowa state because of the big 12 of the whole thing not because i think that they're better um and west virginia unfortunately just has not really done a good job outside of their their narrow narrow win against Kansas of closing games out against really good

teams this year. And Kansas is maybe not a really good team. And that really is the name of the game and the big 12, where the spreads are three and a half points every week. Like this is the, you know, the calling card. And I just am losing or have lost my,

my faith in West Virginia to close out a game this year. Well, and you got a really good, you got a Garrett green game in that Iowa state game, but it never felt like they were, they were a danger to win it. Like you're green through for two Oh six and ran for 87. And it might just be that we're finding out that Iowa state is right.

Like there's some separation there between Iowa state and the rest of the, the money big 12. Yeah. But like those receivers are better probably than other than like a Travis Hunter Jimmy Horn situation like they have the best receivers in the big 12 outside of Colorado yeah I would agree and they also play very very tough and their quarterback does a very good job of getting them the ball like uh you know Rocco Beck is a pretty underrated player, in my opinion. He's already got 1,500 yards passing and 10 touchdowns this year. So we are in a situation where the team that we thought was going to win the

conference or had a chance to win the conference is back in the picture. Avery Johnson looked much more comfortable against Colorado than he did. And we have to also acknowledge that dart that he threw with the game on the line at the end of the game. That's what I'm saying. He's getting better. He's a first-year starter, so we need to accept the fact that he made some mistakes against BYU,

but he may grow and evolve as the season goes on and maybe a completely different quarterback by the end of the year. Yeah, so I'm drinking Kansas State Kool-Aid again. I'm going with the Wildcats. I'm going Big 12 chaos, baby. Give me the Mountaineers. Yeah, I did that last week State Kool-Aid again. I'm going with the Wildcats. I'm going Big 12 chaos, baby. Give me the Mountaineers. Yeah, I did that last week, and it just didn't work. I know, but eventually it's going to work.

The better team just won. Eventually our Big 12 coin is going to come up. Yeah. Plus. Yeah, West Virginia is a pretty good football team. I just don't know that they'll be able to close this one out. All right, Ari. We've arrived.

The big one so big that all the f1 dudes are coming to austin to see this game also to run a race but georgia at texas in the rankings is number five versus number one it's two teams we expect to make the playoff but if texas were to win this game are we sure yeah that ge that Georgia is going to make the play that, and that is, that is one of the more interesting aspects of this 12 team playoff because you say, Oh,

you can lose games. It's fine. But I don't know that Georgia can lose. Like Georgia can lose this game and still make the playoff, but it makes the rest of the season pretty white knuckle. Texas doesn't need this as bad. Is there a motivation gap here that that that helps georgia a little bit or does texas just want to keep pounding and prove hey even though we're new

to the sec we can run this thing right out of the gate yeah it would be an interesting thing to think like uh georgia loses this game then runs a table which would mean wins over florida ole miss tennessee uh umass and georgia tech um they wouldn't really have a hallmark win unless tennessee turns this thing around a little bit but i do think that like that like 10 and 2 georgia is like the 10 seed and they don't play in the sec championship right like that's how that that's how that ends so i don't know that they would be out of it they would they would have to walk a tight they'd have to lose again but they also still have to play tennessee they have to play at ole miss like but yeah i don't know that i think that

george is a three loss team that said i think that texas is a better all-around football team than georgia is this year i don't think you're that's not really a hot take. Yeah, no, it's not. I mean, they're favored. Yeah. I mean, let me, let me give you a stat. This is one that I'm that Oklahoma column. I was telling you guys about that, that I found that I found was very interesting. Studying Oklahoma's offensive line.

So the Texas and Georgia offensive lines, all 10 starters were recruited out of high school by these programs. All nine of those 10 were signed in 2021 or 2022. Xavier Trust for Georgia is the old guy. He was signed in 2019. So he's the outlier. But for the most part, everybody's been in the program. These are superior recruits. These are four and five star recruits who sat for a year or two and now are starting. This is exactly how you're supposed to build an offensive line. Both teams do it exactly the right way. That's what I love about this game because that's what makes these teams so steady and dependable is they have great offensive line play.

They have great athletes who are going to play in the NFL who didn't show up. Calvin Banks showed up and started right away. But for the most part, they didn't. They had to sit. They had to wait. They got developed. And now they are playing at a very high level

and they're all going to play in the NFL. All 10 starters on the offensive line in this game are going to play in the NFL and probably start in the NFL. This is exactly what you want to see. Yeah. Andy, we played a game when we made a line in this game are going to play in the NFL and probably start in the NFL. This is exactly what you want to see. Yeah. Andy, we played a game when we made a video about this game on our channel on YouTube. Yeah, on the On3 YouTube channel.

You want to play it again? Let's play it again. Who's got better quarterback in this game? Texas. Who's got the better offensive line in this game? Texas. Who's got the better receivers in this game? Texas.

Who's got the better running backs in this game? Texas. No, Georgia. Georgia does. Who's got the better receivers in this game? Texas. Who's got the better running backs in this game? Texas. No, Georgia. Who's got the better defensive line? Push. Push. Who's got better linebackers? Push. No, Georgia. I'll go Georgia on this one. And who's got the better defensive backs? Georgia. So, first of all, awesome matchup. Yes. Second of all, don't really have a lot of teams that are winning

that many positions against Georgia. No. So when you're wondering, well, why is Texas a three? Oh, here's one. Here's one we didn't mention. Well, we can lump them in with receivers, but they also block tight ends. Tight ends. Who's better in this game?

That's a push. It's a push. Yeah. But think about that. We're saying somebody's a push at tight end yeah against georgia yeah i mean gunner's a gunner's awesome but they got they got other dudes like and i mean jt sanders was awesome last year too but but gunner helm's fantastic and they have other dudes behind it looks very similar to georgia's tight end room the last four or five

years where you you see the starters and you're like, oh, my God. And then you see the backups. You're like, oh, wow. But Texas has also played more functionally this year. Now, they haven't had to play Alabama. Right. But Texas has looked the part every single game. And Georgia has left some things to be desired.

And I don't know if that is a hint on things to come for Georgia, a team that's already lost, or if that's just grab ass along the way to a big game. But I feel more comfortable knowing. And you know things to come for georgia a team that's already lost or if that's just grab ass along the way to a big game but like i feel more comfortable knowing and you know what cannot believe we're saying this in 2024 andy but like i feel more comfortable that texas is going to show up oh i feel more comfortable like but this is the game that even the the texas teams in the that were walking through the hinterlands they're the ones that always showed up. They always showed up for this game.

It was Iowa State they didn't show up for. Yeah. But they definitely showed up for this game. But I don't actually worry about that at all with this version of Texas. Yeah. So, I mean, I already know where I'm headed with this. I don't know if you do.

Do you want me to go first? Yeah, yeah. I think Texas is going to cover. I think Texas is going to win the game. I think it's going to be a great physical game, but I think they're going to win in between 4 and 7. Oh, yeah? Well, I got a question for you. Who's that coming down the track?

Is that like a NASCAR thing? It's a Georgia thing. A mean machine in red and black. So who's that coming down the track? Lewis Hamilton's coming down the track. Because there's an F1 race. Andy. Yeah.

Yeah. That's why I was trying to. I said NASCAR, but it's an F1 race. Yeah. That's what I was trying. It didn't land. But, you know, is that what you think? I think Georgia needs this.

I don't. When's the last time Georgia needed something in the regular season? When's the last time Georgia had to win a game in the regular season? Yeah. Give me Georgia. Georgia. I don't say that with a ton of confidence. Yeah.

But I think this is a great matchup. I think Texas is a unit. I think Texas is a unit. I think this is a great match this is a unit i think texas is a unit i think this is a great matchup but i think georgia needs this and i'm frankly very curious to see what kirby smart and his team look like when they need it because we just haven't seen this in the regular season yeah no i can't wait to i mean game of the week obviously uh certainly going to tell us a lot about the teams that I play here in Georgia.

Go win a game against a team that you don't have better players in at every position. They don't play very many games like that. They did a few weeks ago and they lost it. They got behind 28-0. If they played 40 games in the last four years, they've played three or four that are...

Don't get jumped on 28 nothing because you ain't coming back from that you know what it's possible too that they just got off to a really bad start they got out they got out and they got out they got out schemed for for two quarters they made they figured it out and they were and but then the second half wasn't as much of a comeback as it was them showing how much better they are than alabama right i think that's a way that you could look at that and i will say carson beck this is you want to make some money like you you want to be some money? You want to be QB1 in the NFL draft?

I think Quinn Ewers, by the way, has a chance of doing that too. Shador Sanders obviously as well. But if you're Carson Beck and you want to make some money, this is where you make the money. Right here. I can't wait, Ari. You're going to be there, right? I'm going to try.

I'm going to try. I got some emails to send. I don't know. You're going to be there, right? I'm going to try. I'm going to try. All right. I got some emails to send. I don't know. Because if I do go, we do need to do the podcast from there. So the press box has to be open long enough. So I got to figure out whether that's the case. You know, might be staying in beautiful Temple, Texas, because this is what happens. They got a Buc-ee's. They got a nice Buc-ee's.

Like a shower there, right? Do they have showers? No. No truckers at Buc-ee's. No truckers at Buc-ee's. Just nice, beautiful, clean, individual stalls. Great marketing, by the way. Tremendous. Tremendous. By the way,

I realize other college football shows have their gas station sponsors. Which one? I'm joking. It's a jab. It's a jab, Andy. It's a jab. We're not throwing the competition. They're very nice to us over there at the competition.

I know, but what's a little friendly competition? I'm just jabbing them a little bit. But we need ours. We need our gas station. Who wants to be our gas station? And the thing is, is that, like, I am a gas station dude. Nobody more than the two of us. Me and you, like, stop.

I think that, like, on on road trips the number of stops that you and i make probably is 2x what a normal 3x listen here bucky's loves sheets wawa circle k what are you doing here pilot big fan of the regional chip what are we doing look at all the money you're leaving on the table by not making us your official podcast because we have a very loyal listenership we do if we say that the tamales on the roller grill from loves are the best gas station food in america they will buy tamales off the roller grill it loves that'd be a great you know how many spicy nugs that we have sold for wendy's do you understand how many spicy nugs that we've sold i'm just telling you get off the schneid gas

stations end of rant ari is taking texas i am taking ge Georgia. This is a beautiful game. This is another incredible week. Saturday is going to be glorious. I cannot believe we get to do this for a living. I cannot believe we get to talk about this. Thank you guys so much for listening. We've seen the numbers. You are telling your friends about this show.

They are picking it up too. We cannot thank you enough. Stick with us. It's only going to get more fun. I mean, we're going to get a gas station at some point. We'll talk to you tomorrow.