Andy & Ari On3 - How do Matt Rhule and Nebraska KEEP CLIMBING in 2025?

Episode Date: May 16, 2025

Happy Friday! Before we head into the weekend, we have a Dear Andy & Ari episode on tap. Some GREAT questions from our awesome listeners, but first, we preview the Top 100 list of impact players from Clark Brooks.(0:00-4:42) Intro: Top 100 Impact Players(4:43-21:37) Deep Dive into Nebraska(21:38-28:11) Story Time: Vol Twitter & Ari(28:12-32:24) A worse blow to the Irish?(32:25-41:34) Notre Dame's Future in a 16-Team CFP(41:35-54:57) Are Super Teams dead in this era of College Football(54:58-58:28) Conclusion: Ari's Profits in Gambling? Dear Andy & Ari kicks off with a 2-part question about Nebraska and dives deep into Cornhuskers as Dylan Raiola prepares to lead the team for the second season in Lincoln. Moving on to Notre Dame, a fan asks a question on the Irish and what they can expect if the College Football Playoff does expand to a 16-team field. What will it take for the Irish to join a conference? Would they even consider it? Andy and Ari break it down. Are super teams really dead? Jesse sends in his thoughts to Ari Does Ari turn a profit while he gambles? Watch our show LIVE, M-F at 9:30 am et! https://www.youtube.com/@On3sports Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey 

Welcome to Andy and Ariane 3. Happy Friday. We're going to get you headed into your weekend. Hopefully you have a, you know, easy going work day today and you can just cruise in the weekend. But our goal here is to make that cruise even easier. Are we have some incredible questions today? I love when the listeners and the viewers just make it easy for us. And they're making it easier as time goes on. They're becoming more robust and more detailed. So I don't know, do we do a mailbag episode in the season? I can't remember. Oh yeah, we do but the problem is a lot of times there's so much news that we have to squeeze it in. So yeah. you know, I don't know. There are times this

offseason Andy where it feels like we could do two in a week because there's so many questions. So we'll see how that progresses. But thank you guys. I echo Andy and saying that I appreciate your participation and it makes the show better. So thanks for being here. So little note for next week. If you're reading it on three, you go go read this at on three now. So Clark Brooks, the SEC stat cat has come up with an incredible ranking of the hundred most impactful players in college football. We've got a graphic out featuring the top 10. Should be no surprise that Jeremiah Smith is at number one, the Ohio State receiver. South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart at number two edging out Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety. I thought

that was an interesting one and Sam Levitt. Arizona State quarterback, your highest ranked quarterback on the list. So really interesting list and we have 10 of the Arch Manning. Okay, got it. Three Longhorns in the top 10 by the way. Ant Hill, Colin Simmons, Arch Manning. Yeah, this list looks a lot like all of our top 10 players list. Although I do love that stats and data drove it. Because there's two different ways of looking at it.

With the human eye, there's ways of calculating statistical impact on games. And it's funny how those lists all seem to kind of arrive at the same place. Kind of like the debate we were having earlier today about the BCS versus the committee. Like it's like, there's two different ways of doing it and it's all kind of adds up to be the same thing. But we'll talk about that extensively for sure.

Yeah, and we're gonna have Clark on the show next week to break it down and explain how this list worked and how he came up with it. I think it's interesting as an exercise, because if you add up the number of players, certain teams have on this list, it should give you some sense of what to expect for this season. Now there's no guarantee because obviously like we were talking about the other day, there's always surprises, but I think it should help us kind of gauge and I'm going to go

through it with Clark and then we'll see how it compares to say my top 25 and figure out if I've got somebody way too low. If I've got somebody way too high, yeah, I think it's going to be interesting there. I don't know if it was like did you did a list too right of top you know I did top 10 returning players. I don't know if you ever did one. I didn't do if he was like. Did you did a list too right of top? You know I did top 10 returning players. I don't know if you ever did one. I didn't do one of those lists. Leonard Moore is a really good

addition to a list like this, because I don't think a lot of people were thinking much about him. He was a freshman last year who had to kind of step in at Notre Dame and it was very clear from the moment he set foot on the field that he was going to be awesome and one of the best cornerbacks in the country. But they keep figuring out a way to get really

impactful defensive backs there in South Bend. So it's good to see them on the list as well. But also to South Carolina with two players. And we knew this. We knew this. But it is interesting too in the debate Andy of like how many impactful players do you need on your team to win a national championship? You know, maybe we should always be thinking differently about teams that have two or even three players on the top 10 of something like this. Yes. Yes. I mean, like it's not an accident we have Texas number one in both. Well, I've got them number one in my post spring top 25. You got the number two, right? Yeah. And I'm rethinking that right now. Well, there are Penn State players on this list as well

Like like you said three top ten state number one because there are a number of Penn State players who make this top 100 list So I yeah, we got to break that down. But if you want to read what that's in the top ten either interesting very interesting You want to read this list it's at on three right now. I Think it's pretty fascinating. So Clark goes through some of his rationale, but we're gonna have Clark on the show You will love him if you've not caught any of Clark's appearances on the show before he's spectacular on the air

just spectacular so just spectacular. So Ari, it's time to answer some questions. We have some very, very, very good ones. I wanna start with a couple of questions that kind of fit the same theme, or at least it's the same team, and I think one leads into the other. So we'll start with the one from Outside Zone Pod.

Year three for Matt Rule has been the money year. What does a successful year look like at Nebraska? And the next question. Dear Andy DeRari, can Dylan Riola crack either of your top 10 QBs list by season's end? I think he quickly went from overhyped to now very underrated. And that's... And he met us at the at the NFL draft.

I don't know if you put that together. That's right. That's right. And he's my stock buddy. Very nice. And it's a good question. It's a very good. I don't know that he's gone from overhyped. I don't know if he's my stock buddy. Very nice. And it's a good question. It's a very good question. I don't know that he's gone from overhyped. I don't know if he's underrated now. We didn't put him in the top 10.

You can still be a good quarterback because there's 135 of them in the FBS that are starters. You can still be in the top 10 percent if you're not in the top 10. Well here's the thing, anybody can play their way into that. If you're really productive then yeah sure. I actually do think that I was very hard on him you know a few weeks ago and I don't know if that if that criticism was deserved in terms because I've been doing a lot of thought on this. It's like if Dylan And I don't know if that, if that criticism was deserved in terms of, cause I've been doing a lot of thought on this. It's like if Dylan Raiola were just some three star prospect who, you know,

kind of came out of nowhere and, you know, was the same person, but wasn't just the most hyped recruit in his class or one of the few that were in that category, then like, I don't know, like we're not sitting here criticizing like Iowa State's quarterback for no reason. So it's exactly the same. Jadavian Clowney got released by the Panthers. And this may be the end of his career. And people are like, he was a bust in the NFL.

Well, he was a bust in the NFL because he was the number one overall draft pick. If you Davey and Clonnie was picked 33rd in his draft, like the first big, the second round, it would be considered an incredible career. Yeah. So I don't know if that's just part of the burden that you have to live with if you're rated that high. Um, but I was comparing him in the, uh, in the comparison to what he was supposed to be, not who he is or what most people in his position should be at this point in their career. So from that aspect, he certainly went from overrated, you know, or I mean very overrated at the beginning, because everybody's overrated at that point, to regularly rated. And that seems like a drastic fall off. But I don't know if I would like.

Like the thing is that you said top 10% Andy, like the game that we played with, would you take him over the other top 25 team quarterbacks? He wouldn't be in the country. No, but now, but he could be top 30% and even if he illustrates an ability to do the thing that I'm questioning he can do, which is extend plays and do that. Then he can easily jump into the Top 10, period. Yes. To me, like, I think that maybe I was harsh. And I think people were upset about that. And if you were, I understand why you were. It's your quarterback, it's your team. But just know that I also think that he has a very high ceiling if he figures it out. I wasn't illustrating a doubt in him as a quarterback and never being good.

I was illustrating a doubt in whether or not he can improve a certain aspect of his game that is very important, especially in the frame of the Patrick Mahomes comparison. So like that to me is the number one question. And like, if you go back to the first one, Andy, that's a really, really difficult question to answer. And I'm very curious what you think

in terms of what their successful season would look like. For historical perspective, because they're asking, you know, how would you compare this to other year threes for Matt Ruhl? For historical perspective, year three at Temple for Matt Ruhl, they went 10 and four, seven and one in conference. Year three at Baylor, 11 and three, eight and conference and one and ended up winning the league. I believe so You've got

Both cases they were coming off Essentially right around 500 season so that you know Baylor was Seven and six the second year temple was six and six the second year. So Nebraska's coming off a seven and six season. So that jump, if he were to be able to make it into double-digit wins would be really incredible because given what he took over and the situation Nebraska was in when he got there, it would be pretty amazing. I don't think that he has to do that for this to be a successful season. I don't think they have to win 10 games for this to be a successful season. I think if they win the games, they're supposed to win. Don't have any sort of weird, fluky losses. Then you're looking at, you know, maybe an eight and four season. And that, that sort of steady improvement, given what Nebraska has been through the previous 15 years before Matt Ruhl got there, I think they'd take that. I think, I think that fan base would be very appreciative of a nice, steady climb.

A few thoughts here, Andy. One, how much can you take in terms of historical data and try to spring it forward? You know, you could say a coach needs 3 full years to have a huge bounce back, but how much can you actually, you know, compare to a record? The whole world's changed since then. You're right. The conference with different sizes and different teams and different schedule strength. But two, this is the overarching thought that I've had. And it kind of rang true to me a little bit, because when I read this question in the email, I thought about this with Miami. You know, if you've been listening to the

show, you know that we have had a run-in with the Miami fan base this week, or specifically me, in terms of, you know, my thought process on, you know, how they got their five-star commitment from Jackson Cantwell and what it means for the program and in college football. But of all the storied programs that in the 90s and the early 2000s were bad-ass, how many of those programs have actually gotten to a point where they have readjusted what their thought process of success looks like? I think you can make the case that Nebraska

is the only fan base in the country that was once the big bad Alabama of the sport that no longer feels like it needs to compete at that level to be successful. Because I mean, even if you think like, like powerhouses back from my childhood, Miami is trying to win national titles. OK. USC still believes that it's, you know, we got into an argument last week with somebody who thought that USC was a Top 5 job. Who are other, Florida State isn't happy with. I mean, two years ago, Florida State went 13 and 0. So yeah. Yeah.

And then again, through no fault of their own, didn't accomplish what they wanted to accomplish. Still, even with that remarkable season, I'm trying to think of other powerhouses from our childhood that have fallen off in recent years. Florida State's a tough one because they did win the national title in 2013 as well. Yeah, but also I know it sounds weird, but it's been over a decade, man.

Like, yeah, Tennessee, Tennessee producer River points out, you know, they're, they're good again, but it took a while. Nebraska is the only fan base that has recategorized reasonable expectations for their program. Yes. And I think, I think they are are reasonable and it's interesting because I always felt like people outside sort of think they're just begging to get back to 1995. I think they understand that that's probably not going to happen again, but they can still be good at times And so that all they want is for them to be a good program. And they've been a below average program, you know, through the Mike Riley era

and the Scott Frost era, they can be a good program though. And they have the resources, especially in the NIL era, they should be able to get a roster that can be competitive in the Big 10. Maybe not competitive at the top of the Big 10 every single year, but every once in a while? Yeah, absolutely. So what I was looking at,

I was looking at last year's results. Like get rid of the UCLA loss. Like if you just get rid of the UCLA loss, then you're onto something, then you're moving. Cause that makes you seven and five in the regular season if you get rid of that. Now now play a little bit better against Iowa. You beat Iowa at home this year at the end of the season and you've gotten rid of, you know, you don't have your fluke loss like you had with UCLA.

It's the eight and four. That's what we're talking about. So I think that would be nice, steady improvement. Now look, Matt rule historically, like, like we said, has made a big jump in this year. Now that they've got two new coordinators, obviously they brought in Dana Horvitz at the end of last year, but that was, that was at the very end. This is the time he's had the full off season to put this in Dylan. Raiola.

We mentioned, you know, second years of starting quarterback, you make your biggest jump usually between your first years of starter and the second. So I see potential for them to be significantly better. So- I'm also really fired up for their fourth game of the season, which is against Michigan. I think we're gonna find out a lot about both of those teams that week. I mean, maybe Michigan sooner because Michigan will have played Oklahoma at that point. But it is to me like you want to know and try to get a gauge of how much improvement you're going to get. I think we'll know in game four for Nebraska for sure.

Yeah, I just I think this might be the end of the frustration. I think this this is the year we see Nebraska emerge as a fully competent effective football program. Yes, solid football program. And then and then you build from there. Yeah. And the thing is, because things are random, ball bounces different ways, if they become effective solid program, there's a potential 10 win season in that this year, depending on how things bounce. I'm going through this with the car I bought. It had really good bones,

but, and it used to be great. And now I'm doing things to it so that it can get back to its glory days. And the last thing I'm going to do is a paint restoration and detail. So the final step, it goes from being elite to wow. And I kind of feel like that's what's happening with Nebraska's football program a little bit. You inherit something that is in rough shape because it's old. Um, you know, it has the good bones to be an amazing situation.

You have to put work into it for a few years in order to get to where you think it could be to build on. And then the final step is the polish and the paint restoration. So it gets back to the wow factor. And I think that we're probably in the midst of the repairs of the broken cup holder and the lights at the bottom of the front that aren't working

and the headrest, you know, falling down and things like that. You have to fix all that stuff first. I don't know if this is a terrible analogy or just wanted the excuse to talk about the car that I'm obsessed with, but like that's kind of how I feel about it. Does that make sense to you?

Like you're fixing all the problems you're making it. I think it feels like they fixed the big problems and now you're just making fine tuning tweaks. Yeah. And then when they're ready to get better names, that's the polish phase where you make it detailed and it looks beautiful. And it's back to what it is. So but that's not a two year or a three year fix for Nebraska. But the good news is, is that by year three, the defrosting should be over with

right like this, the the the bone headed seven point three point losses where something terribly hilarious happens at the end, everybody but Nebraska fans, we should be through that by now. Like they shouldn't be losing games in frustrating, agonizing ways, because Nebraska, for how bad their record is, was a statistical anomaly on how many one-possession games they were losing in absolutely wild ways. If they can get that out of their system, that puts them in a position to win half of those one possession games. You've already seen that improvement in the record. Now, the next step is winning all those games that you have a chance to win, which is the hardest part, right? It's, you know, going from top 50 to top 30.

Yeah, it's going from top 30 to top 15. So... It's winning the Iowa game when you go into the fourth quarter up 10-3. Right. It's doing the Iowa game when you go into the fourth quarter up 10-3. Right. It's, it's doing that. So it's not losing to UCLA when you have no business losing to UCLA. Those are, those are the next steps and, and like you make those next steps. There's steps after that too. So I think the Nebraska fans should feel pretty good.

If they win eight games this year, feel really good. If it's more than that, that's just gravy. That's fantastic. But if you can go eight and four, you're on the right track. Because if they go eight and four, Ari, there's a really good chance they just won the games they were supposed to win. So if you do better than that. Now you're beating teams that maybe

you're not supposed to be. Notion that there are four games that are automatic losses on the schedule too. That's true. You're right about that because. Well, let's let's go through the schedule. Cincinnati they should win. Akron they should win. Houston Christian they should win.

I thought it was you con again. I learned nothing. Michigan. That's a true that that that's a toss up. That's not an automatic loss. Give them a 25% chance to win that game right now in my my my made up math in my in my office right now. Michigan State in Lincoln. that's one i think nebraska should probably win at maryland is when nebraska should probably win so we're already

we're already at five wins we'll see about minnesota but northwestern yeah northwestern's one they should win we'll see about usc that should be a 50 50 game now that wasn't a 50 50 game if you watched him play last year But you give him a shot on that one. So even though the side of a loss there You're still only yet. You're at seven and two there. Yeah UCLA That's one we talked about now. Maybe they're significantly better. We'll see what happens with Nico I told you I liked what the Sean Foster's doing there I like the fact that they they found an identity toward the end last season

But still that's when Nebraska should win so that would put them at eight wins they're supposed to lose at Penn State that would not be shocking to anybody and Then you've got the Iowa game at home, which you could be playing for a ninth win right there I also for to the only that's a great season right there Will you automatically assign a loss it is the Penn State game? They know they avoid Oregon and Ohio State on their schedules. So I feel like 10 wins could be a pretty reasonable goal. Yes, because the Michigan game is not an auto loss. The USC games not an auto loss. Maybe playing the big 10 championship game with a better schedule than or a more advantageous

schedules some of their counterparts. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but if Dylan Raiola takes the step forward that all the Mad Nebraska fans are anticipating, and they knock off USC or Michigan, and they go one and one in that, and then win all the games they're supposed to, and then they beat Minnesota, that's not gonna be easy, that's on the road. You have a legitimate path there

to at least only having two losses at the end of the year, and if you have two losses in the Big Ten, you might be in the position to halftide shot for playing in the Indianapolis. I'm excited about this. I think they can be very competitive. Like the idea of Nebraska, think about that. Let's say that season plays out the way we talked about. Like what if Nebraska has eight wins going into that Penn State game and is an outside playoff contender? wins going into that Penn State game and is an outside playoff contender.

You know what? That's a huge game in state college if that happens. If Dylan Raiola is a top five quarterback in college football this year that's not impossible. No, not at all, not at all. So now Nebraska's win total and everybody released their new win totals last week. Nebraska's win total is seven and a half. So I think putting this at eight makes a lot of sense of saying this is the reasonable expectation of success. I like the over there though. I do too. I feel very good about the over. I feel much better with the over than I would the under. So that's- Which is probably pretty good news for Nebraska. Yeah, I think you guys have gotten out of the woods

and now you've got a competent football team. The next step is becoming a really good football team. Also two nicest people in the world and also the most reasonable fans in the world and couldn't hope for more success for you guys. They were- And loyal. Far less nasty to us than most fan bases would be. Do you imagine if we had an exact conversation about Nico while he was still the quarterback at Tennessee? I mean I would have gone into hiding

but by the way I think I'm a month strong as the king of vault winner by the way. I don't know if you guys know this but we're still on good terms. Nothing's happened that would cause you to say anything to piss them off. All I know is they're team Ari and I'm team vault Twitter. Okay, like I'm... All right. Well, let's get you on team Nebraska Twitter, team Cornhusker Twitter, because I do think they do have a reason to be excited this year.

I might need to call in the lefty here and get Vol Twitter to go attack Miami fans for me. I don't know if they would do it for me, but if I got it's like if if Twitter attempt to weaponize Vol Twitter, Vol Twitter is the is the sort of firearm that is more likely to shoot you than somebody else. The thing that I think is hilarious about Vol Twitter is that the thing that Miami fans are mad at me for saying or thinking that I said. Well they're mad at you for complimenting them so that's the difference for acknowledging that NIL was at play here. Yeah they're mad at you for complimenting their program on being run in an efficient manner

based on the rules of the day. But Valtwitter has accepted for years that their program is in this game and in this space. Right. And even though they're in a bad spot with Nico, they understand how college football works. So the fact that they are mad at me, I feel like Vol Twitter could counteract that for me. And like, I do feel like I have it within myself. But you say Vol Twitter could just cozy up to Kane Twitter and be like, listen, we knew Nico wasn't there because he loved us. No, what I'm saying is,

It was so gay. I think that everybody is the hero of their own story and everybody feels like they're a good person, even if you're a bad one. I feel like I'm a pretty good person. I am not above weaponizing those people. I will stick them on. I don't know. I, if I could get that, if I like tweeted out right now, Hey, vaults, Twitter, I need you. Do you think people would show up for me? Yeah. Like, what is the vault Twitter Twitter horn? Like I don't even know how to call these people. But wish that I was on old Rocky Top down in the Tennessee hills

film the video of me singing Rocky Top and put it up and I said, Hey, vault Twitter, I need you. Do you think they would wind up and be like, what do you need, man? I'd be like, get those Miami people. You over there half bear the other half cat. Go get them. And by the way, I love Miami I think I would rather live in I'm not gonna say it cuz I don't want to lose vaults What are but I how dare you you were gonna you were gonna slander Knoxville No, actually, I think that Tennessee is a very underrated beautiful state. I think that the two most under we did a state rankings

draft in COVID and Tennessee and North Carolina were very under selected. I remember when I was dating Brittany, she was in a business trip in Fort Lauderdale and I had a few days off and I drove down to Florida to see her because I was a psychopath who was in love. And I drove back leisurely on my own. And I drove through Tennessee and spent some time in like the the Great Smoky and, you know, Gatlinburg and all that.

And I was like, this place rips dude. Like it's not- Oh, it's awesome. I don't know. I lived in Knoxville for two years, had to go back to Florida because my wife was getting into grad school and starting. And so it wasn't like we could just stay eight hours apart

forever. I loved living in Knoxville. It's a wonderful place, beautiful. You know, when you wake up and just see the mountains out in the distance and the weather, most of the year is great. It was actually a particularly cold winter, my first winter there, but their spring is elite.

I have a hot, elite spring. You wanna hear my hot take that has nothing to do with geography? What's that? Being in the long distance relationship is difficult because we both have done it, but being in the long distance relationship is difficult because we both have done it. But being in a long distance relationship is kind of badass too. Because whenever you see the person, you're always traveling and trips are fun. And you also can maintain your independence for, for the last time before you're no longer independent. Where it's like we're together, we're in a relationship, but I'm not going gonna see you for a few weeks And I get to be like myself for a few weeks Yeah, also that the whole absence makes the heart grow finer, and I will say when you actually get Together like it'll work out, but also to it's like way Britt and I did long-distance was She traveled a lot for work

I traveled a lot for work like we met each other in like random cities all the time that neither of us Yeah from and like every date night was like a weekend getaway trip. It was awesome. I just drove down I-75 in the middle of the night in my little Honda Accord. That's what I did. It depends on what you're doing and how you're doing it, but it was fun.

Listen to their crying preacher channel at three in the morning in South Georgia, because it's the only thing that'll keep you awake. This was pre-satellite radio by the way. What is your plan for when you're falling asleep? Cause like I'm a big books on tape person, but if I'm on tape while like driving late at night, I can't do it.

And then I play like just like 90s rap music and it wakes me up. And then I blast the air conditioning. That works, but when that doesn't work, you just pull over, go walk around the gas station. Just walk around for five minutes. I never did that. That's a good idea. Oh, by the way, last thing,

this episode is going to be very long. I'm sorry, but we can't be, I don't know what we're doing here, but Brett's going to Vegas this weekend for that big real estate convention that they have every year. Um, my child is spending the night at my mother-in-law's on Saturday. So I have a reoccurring situation with the IC this weekend and I wanted to do it. I was going to say does the DoorDash driver already know that they're getting multiple slurpees to bring to your house?

The conflict I'm having. Do I stay in order junk food and watch the NBA and sports all weekend on Saturday because I get like Saturday from noon till Sunday at noon. Or do I drive to Oklahoma and just gamble by myself like an absolute savage all night? I know what I would choose in this scenario. There is no debate here. I'm just at home watching games. All right, let me know when you listen to the episode.

But not you. What would you do? OK. Yeah, I guess we're going to have a gambling question maybe at the end of the show so we can talk about it. Alright, next up. Two questions. Also somewhat related. We'll start with one from Tim. What is Notre Dame's future in a 16 team field? If all non-conference games stop mattering, what happens to a team that only schedules

non-conference games? What is the straw that breaks the camel's back and makes them join a conference? The other question about Notre Dame comes from Joey. What was a bigger blow to Notre Dame this off season? Losing GM Chad Bowden to an archrival, that would be USC USC or not being able to claim the first ever American Pope because he went to Villanova. Great questions. Great questions. Have you seen all the the Pope is from Chicago memes that have been going around for the past two weeks? The best one best one by far was after the conclave when they brought him out for the first time in in Saint Peter's Square. Is that what it is?

And he comes out, they were playing serious by the Allen Parsons project like he's freaking Bill Cartwright playing center for the Bulls. Was that the- That was a really good one. I wonder if they put a Portillo sign in the Vatican was hilarious. There were a lot of really good ones. The best part was when the Cubs tried to claim him and then everybody found out he's a White Sox fan. Yeah, I do like not understand Catholicism enough to know what the process is of electing a pope.

But I do think it is kind of bizarre. And again, going to a sporting event. I just love that the freaking pope probably will at least give a passing thought to whether the Bears offensive line has improved this year or not. The thing that I cannot get over is that the pope who I never even knew could be from America honestly I didn't even know how like the selection was that like they caught him at a White Sox game like 10 or 15 years ago and there's like this like video of him just being a dude in like the White

Sox Stadium. Like it's like that's the Pope. Like I thought the Pope was like born over there and like cultivated and I'm not saying he's not a Holy Pope I just didn't know you know how it went so. Well, I do think Notre Dame probably that smarts like that. It was Villanova is probably better than if it was say Boston College, which is a team that Notre Dame plays regularly in football. I remember Notre Dame was in the Big East with its other sports, so noble was a conference rival at a time at a particular time, but no longer. So I don't think it irks them as much though.

Yeah. I mean, yeah, probably it's going to be a while before the next American Pope. So this is a missed opportunity for the Irish, but let's get back to the really inappropriate ones too. And I don't know if I'm allowed to say them on the show. Use your best judgment. say them on the show. Use your best judgment. Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna say it like in a roundabout way but like, okay, you know, I make a sexual can there be a sexual joke? I mean, there always can on the show without me. Well, this is pre recorded. So I'm gonna

say it and if it's not okay, then he'll cut it. All right, there you go. This is the first pope to ever touch the bean and I thought that was the most hilarious thing I've ever seen in my, heard in my entire life. Do you think that's funny because the bean in Chicago and the bean, the first pope to ever touch the bean? No. What's the bean in Chicago? What am I missing? There's this huge sculpture in downtown. Okay I got you. Yeah. I got you. okay. Okay, you can cut it if you want, but I thought that was hilarious. It's fine, I mean, there's probably some parents listening in their car,

they're gonna have to answer some questions now. And I guarantee you, this is not making, when we cut this down into one question about Notre Dame, this isn't making the cut of that. Oh, okay, so it's not gonna make make the episode. Oh, no, it'll make the episode. It just won't. It won't make the the individual question about Notre Dame. The video that says should Notre Dame join a conference, except maybe not like that. But OK, let's get. Let's get. Yeah, let's get to Tim's question. I think Tim's question

is is definitely meteor. The future in a 16-team field, and then if all non-conference games don't matter, what happens to a team that only schedules non-conference games? This is a really excellent question. This is very well thought out by Tim, and I appreciate just the structure here, because when you go to a 16 team field it the way they they're saying that it's gonna be where there's four auto bids for the SEC four auto bids for the big ten two for the ACC two for the big twelve one for the highest ranked

group of six champ three at larges it does render those non-conference games far less important in terms of making the playoff. But because college football is a messed up sport, I actually think that helps Notre Dame because now your Big Ten and SEC schools that might have been scared to schedule them. Won't be scared because it doesn't matter if they lose to them anymore. This is interesting because I feel like nothing's changed. This, this is not the thing that makes them join a conference. I get it. Do we want to talk about the thing that'll make them?

Yeah. What's the thing? Super league. That's it. If there's a super league, they got to be part of it. That's it. Yeah. It's not really a conference. Possibility that the Super League will will include them even if they're not in or will they have to be

in the Super League. You're gonna have to be in the Super League to be in the Super League. Or if they make a Super League that schedules Notre Dame and they're allowed to take part in their playoff, they could still be adjacent to it. I guess but but more likely than not, if you do a super league, they have to be a part of it. You're saying that if, because the super league is just NFL light, so if NFL light,

Yeah. You're just in a division at that point. Like, yeah. But as long as that doesn't happen, as long as the sport is still structured around several major conferences, everything that's been done helps Notre Dame stay independent. Why is everybody so obsessed with this?

I don't know. I've thought about that myself. I've always wondered that. It makes people so mad. And you see it in the chat sometimes. Like a Notre Dame fan will say something and someone who doesn't like Notre Dame will say, just join a conference already. Like, why? Does it just bother you that they're different?

I don't know if it's different. I wonder if people think that Notre Dame is levitating above the rest of us because they refuse to be locked in arms with other teams. Like, do people think it's an implication that they're better? Like, I don't know what it is. So it's definitely for an older generation.

It does because like the older generation and like my parents' generations, especially Notre Dame has the NBC contract. All of their home games are on TV. Like there, there was a time when you're lucky if your team was on TV twice in a year. Notre Dame was on national TV every time it played at home and then usually when it played on the road too. So that was no conference thing is kind of a continuation of the television deal because

the television is probably what sustained their ability. But it's sort of like it's gone in waves. So the reason Notre Dame is independent is because Fielding Yost got them banned from the Big Ten because he lost to them and was being a baby about it. So they just went out and they went and played Army. They went and played USC. I was at a necessity. Then they played it correctly and turned themselves

into the biggest name in college football and the biggest brand in college football and people got pissed. Because like you said, they felt like they were levitating above them. But I don't know. Correct me if I'm wrong and listeners and viewers, same thing. I feel like now there's such backlash against the Big 10 and the SEC for gobbling up so much of the sport and being so greedy. They're like regressing back to being the hero here because they're not affiliated anymore. Right! Yeah, Notre Dame's PR people, I don't know if they didn't do anything,

but the Marcus Freeman not part of the villain conferences thing has really been like a big turnaround in Notre Dame like general hatred. And I also don't know too, like Notre Dame was always's be honest, had a very prolonged down period. And I don't know if Notre Dame had the same fan loyalty from children that they used to because kids tend to find teams like my aunt, like all my friends growing up were Miami fans because Miami was badass back then. And Arizona State wasn't really much when we were like, and everybody else, like, like it wasn't, they weren't Darth Vader. Cause I think when, when I was a kid, Notre Dame was still a Darth Vader type team. That was a team that would come kick your ass

and they had everything better than your team did. Like that what Notre Dame didn't have that. I just feel like it's hard to be universally hated to a extreme degree when you haven't been overly successful. I agree. I think success and those two things kind of go hand in hand. And I think that maybe if Notre Dame goes back to Death Star mode and last year was the first start of the resurgence, then maybe we can get back to that point.

But I just don't, I feel like more people, more general people hate Texas A&M than Notre Dame at this point. I still think more people hate Notre Dame, but I think it's generational. Yeah. I think those people tend to be older. Well, at least the generation that grew up indoctrinating that hate is getting older, and the younger generation who's consuming our product,

and those people are more fixated on the more recent things. And if you think about, and River sent you this chart, and I don't know if we're gonna get to that or not, but the chart of how much severance money Texas A&M is paying in relation to the rest of the SEC, and it's like three times more than everybody else. I just quote tweeted it with the word Jimbo and the gift of Huell from Breaking Bad laying back on the giant brick of cash. Yeah, but I don't know, like that's the whole athletic department.

Have they been like paying a lot of money to like basketball coaches and things like that? I don't pay attention to their other sports, but. They lost their baseball coach and their basketball coach recently. They didn't have to pay them. Texas stole their baseball coach and then Maryland stole their basketball coach.

Yeah, so if that's all Jimbo, then I'm sure a large chunk of it was. I just didn't know if they like had this problem across all their sports, but that's a pretty striking graph there. And like Auburn was the one that was supposedly before jimbo got fired auburn was the poster child for it um and then this is a gusts's buyout at auburn is still the second largest 20.5 million is still the second largest ever paid yeah that's just 2024 that's crazy ever paid. Yeah, that's just 2024. That's crazy. Alabama obviously is the lowest because

your head coach you were hired like Nick Sabanenado. There you go. But I think people find Texas A&M weird and they despise how much money they spend. They do. Relatable thing to everybody. Like I don't know what Dame's thing is, because they're Catholic and people who never went there are friends, fans of their team. How many of the Miami fans do you think yelling at us went to Miami? Very few of them. Yeah, I don't think Notre Dame's unique

in the sense that their fan base is largely transient. Well, I just think this is not what everybody thinks it is. It's not, this will not be the thing that pushes them into a conference. This will be the thing that allows them to stay independent. Coalescing into a Super League will be the thing that forces them into a conference of sorts, although it won't really be like this. It won't be like them joining the ACC or the SEC. It'll just be, hey, this is the only way to begin big time college football. So if that ever happens, I think Notre Dame can

be independent for a long time. And if you're in the business of rooting for Notre Dame to be in a conference, this 13 year or 12 year deal, they just signed with Clemson probably isn't going to you know driving them in the other direction so because other other schools are going to feel the same way like if the SEC you know they talk about the going to nine conference games if they get the automatic bids they're also going to schedule Notre Dame in that situation because they they would like to fill their stadium they would like to give their TV partners good value. And they won't care because as long as they finish

in the top four in the conference standings, they're in the playoff. Right, but as it pertains to the actual playoff, like Notre Dame's path is the same way. You've just gotta be excellent and get that right. Yeah, and I think 16 helps them more than 14, obviously. 14, whereas there's only one at large. Now there there's multiple they're gonna have to be pretty good if they get to get that at large if there's three of them I think there's a better

shot right so all right let us get to to Jesse who sent you a stream of tweets earlier this week and is disagreeing with both of us right that's what I appreciated about him. There was a lot of disrespectful people on there. He just- No, this was very well thought out, well reasoned, very respectfully written. All right, ready? Here we go.

I actually don't buy the killing the super team theory at all. I've listened to tons of pods from you and elsewhere and nobody has explained it well at all beyond it being a result of a more level quote unquote recruiting playing field. Whether a team is a super team or not is best measured by eventual NFL talent,

not high school recruiting scores. I don't care about how many five stars you have, tell me about the number of snaps by player and where those players eventually went. Three of the top five teams with the most NFL draft picks are 2022 Georgia, 2024 Michigan, 2025 Ohio State, all after NIL. We are living in the era of the super team, LOL.

Yeah, I mean, we'll see how it plays out. We're in a transition period. My point still stands though. Super teams will be more common now based on NIL used for player retention. They will be in more diverse places within reason. Recruiting, development, and retention are the three variables that lead to super teams.

NIL affects recruiting and retention. I'm arguing NIL's effects on retention and tactical TP usage will greatly outweigh its flattening effects on recruiting, leading to more super teams. I will push back on the 2022 Georgia, 2024 Michigan, and 2025 Ohio State as being in the NIL era. Yes, those years were in the NIL era. When were the best players on those teams signed? For the most part before the NIL era. This is like a feedback and forth on Twitter. Now the thing that I think is interesting is,

is that we have constantly, or I'll say I, I think you've agreed with me, but just for the safety, I'll say I have said repeatedly over the last few years, and, you know, even before that, that super teams were in the sport, and now they're dying as a result of this. And when I think of super teams, I think of the teams that have players, and they're too deep, who would be all Americans, potentially, at other smaller schools, that are just riding the pine waiting. And I think that there's only one possible way in order to recruit a team that way, which is to assemble top 3 rosters year over year over year for 4 to 5 years, so that you are just stacking talent at an unreasonable pace that other people cannot keep up with. So the one exception to all of this was Michigan a few years ago, because they arrived at that destination without recruiting at that pace. And I think

part of that was really, really good evaluation. I think what Jim Harbaugh and his staff did in terms of assembling that roster was maybe perhaps the single best evaluation development example of my time on Earth. And like, I think that also, too, when you look at a lot of the players that made plays for that team down the stretch, J.J. McCarthy, Donovan Edwards, Will Johnson, the list goes on. A lot of their most explosive playmakers also happened to be 5-stars. So they struck that cocktail of what needs to be done now to win a national championship at a time in which it was able to do it. And I think also too, beating Ohio State and then not having to play Alabama or Georgia

or somebody like that in the playoff certainly helped their chances of actually winning the thing. Because my- They did play Alabama in the playoff. Or sorry, you're right. And Alabama was not, was not, was down that year, but you're right. And they won the SEC. Yeah, they were like they didn't have to play like they weren't 2020 Alabama.

They were they were 2012. Yeah. And Ohio State was the closest thing to that and they beat them. I'm not trying to negate that. I don't want that to take like that. But I'm saying like they were not constructed in the same way as the teams that won the championship the previous five years is that a fair thing to say right they did not have to beat 2022 Georgia which is a different animal like 2022 Georgia 22 games in a row like

that's the it's not that they couldn't they proved in that season that they could twice and they proved in that season that they could twice. But they didn't have to play elite level super teams three weeks in a row or three games in a row and win all of them. But also too, they arrived at the way that the roster was assembled in a very unique and different way, which gave hope to everybody else that they could do it in a different way.

And now nobody's doing it that way. Well, and I will give Jesse a point on this as well because that team did require some of the portal in I L era to get where it needed to go. Sure. Drake Nugent and Lederius Henderson, two starting offensive lineman were one year rentals on that team. So it did require that too, but I'm with you Ari, where I don't think in the future that there will be these guys who are potential all Americans, potential first round draft picks who are sitting the bench at places like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio state for multiple years, when they could be starters making more money somewhere else.

And that was their advantage for the longest time is the Quinnen Williams of the world will wait until it is their turn, then they will blow up, then they will be first rounders. You don't have to wait now because if you're a backup at one of these places, they can't pay you more than they're paying their starters. Doesn't work, the world doesn't work like that. But you, as another team, can pay them the same or what, or more than they pay their starters. So you can get them away.

The highest paid player on your team. And there's gonna be more highest paid players on a more wide set of teams. But the thing that I think is interesting about this is he has asserted that I have miscategorized what a super team is. And I think what he's describing, good retention, great development and good evaluation,

just makes you a really good team now. I don't think there are going to be any teams that are so good and so deep and so explosive that they're unbeatable. I think that every single year, like I will say this, I actually truly believe that even if you construct the best team in college football, the playoff run that Ohio State had last year probably isn't going to happen again for the next 10 years, right? Like, and- It's gonna be so hard to do what they did. And then also too, Ohio State did play in a game

in the semi-final that was in question with eight minutes left. Like, it's not like they blew everybody out. Even the Ohio State team that we're talking about lost to Michigan in the regular season, a team that was very average for what Michigan typically is expected to be, and they almost lost. If Texas would have scored a touchdown there, they conceivably could have lost that game. So they didn't go wire to wire without having to sweat either. They beat the crap out of Notre

Dame, though that game got closer than people thought at the end, and they beat the crap out of Oregon and Tennessee. But they didn't play every game wasn't just a blowout. So like, I think that he's misunderstanding what a super team is. I don't think that the super team is going to exist anymore because you cannot recruit and you cannot retain at the same level that you somebody's still gonna win, like somebody's still gonna win three or four games in the playoff and win because somebody has to ask to, but it doesn't mean that they're like up and above, like

if 2020 Alabama went through the playoff, they would do what Ohio State did last year, and that team does not exist anymore. 2022 Georgia, same thing. And here's the other thing, and it's probably going to piss Michigan fans off, but it's true. 2024 Michigan probably would have lost to every national champion in between 2016 and 2020.

Well, 2024 definitely would have. Well, no, actually 2024 beat 2024. 2024 Michigan beat 2024 national champion. Yeah, you know what I'm saying. No, I said between 2000- You mean 2023 Michigan? I know, I just thought it was funny. 2024 Michigan would have lost in the playoff to all of the national champions.

2023 Michigan. Yeah, sorry, I keep getting the day of the game. 2023 Michigan would have lost, in my opinion, in the playoff to the national champions of 2014 through top 2020. Is that a fair thing to think? I'd say so. So producer River with a really good point. And I think this is a good way to put it. And I hadn't thought about it this way. There won't be many teams with a desperation like national title or bust like Ohio State last season.

That will not be a realistic thing to think for most teams. I don't even know if that's a realistic thing for a super team to think either Ohio State fans are insane. I mean, I mean, they were in a position where they were. We've seen it. But we've seen that with Alabama. We've seen it with Georgia. Like we've seen that before.

Yeah. But every single time they're in a national title or bust scenario, like bust happens more often. Winning a national title is hard. Nick Saban fooled us into thinking it was easy. If you think about how many teams Ohio State had during the 10 year period between the 2024 and the 2014 titles, how much talent walked

through that door there and then not coming close to winning a national title outside of one or two years in that decade is pretty remarkable. And I think that's more normal than what Alabama did. Yeah, I would agree with you on that. But I love the back and forth with Jesse on Twitter because... It feels semantic. It feels like we're arguing semantics, but I actually do think that the actual way that a super team is created is the one way. Jesse's appreciation for, for development. And I will say that, and we've talked about this on the show. I've changed the way I evaluate how good a team can be from who'd you bring

it on the front end to what are you going to have going out to the NFL in the next two years? Like that's all that I really care care about. I remember a few years ago going to Florida's pros is Anthony Richardson's Florida pro day and saying. Who's who's working out at pro day next year. Like this could be a problem and it's exactly what it was. That how many players going out by and large is predicated on who's coming in. It is, but there are programs that are better at developing than others. This week between the Alabama or the Georgia and Miami fans, there was a debate on whether

or not Georgia or Miami was a better place for development of a offensive lineman. Then you know how we feel about crystal ball and mirror ball, right? Yeah. You know how we feel about Georgia as a developmental, but like Georgia had, I think, six to seven times more draft picks at the offensive line position than Miami did

in the last five year stretch. And the reason why is because Georgia brought in five-star off the wall. No, it's not that many. I looked at it. It's actually, since Matt Luke left, not that great. So, I thought that Georgia, since like 2015, had like 9. Yeah, since 2015. But Sam Pittman and Matt Luke aren't there anymore. But Georgia has more, even if you would consider their offensive line and their offensive line coach to be inferior, because the athlete they bring in in the front end is more prepared from a physical standpoint. Right, and they were, in all fairness, they were not just comparing Georgia and Miami, they were comparing Georgia with Oregon while Cristobal was there, and Miami while Cristobal was there. And obviously, Penae Sule came out of the Oregon.

But also, too, it's the same thing with Ohio State, man. Like Jeremiah Smith is going to be a first round draft pick. And it's like Brian Hartline's a genius who recruits his ass off. But it's like, buddy, like that guy's going to be a first round draft pick no matter where you go. You're right. You coach that guy to being a first round draft pick, probably. Like he is.

So I do think that the draft numbers insist upon themselves, because if you're an elite level a, so I do think that, like, the, the draft numbers insist upon themselves, because if you're an elite-level recruit, But I do think some programs are better, and, and, or some programs unlock better. Like, Texas 2010 to 2022, not great. Like, they would take in 4- and 5-star players and don't put much in the NFL. Did you know? NFL putting tons in the NFL. Did you know? Putting tons in the NFL. One of the craziest stats I've heard. Texas did not have a first round offensive player

between Bijon Robinson and Vince Young. It's wild. It's wild. How is that even possible? Right. I'm not trying to insult teams that, I just feel like the recruiting piece of it is the hardest part.

Right, but they couldn't they couldn't get the development part right. And now they get the development part right year after year. They also stunk during that time period, too. So they did. It's quite telling. So but that's that's what gives me confidence. Thank you, Joe Tess. Thank you. But that's why I think Texas keeps being good because they keep making four and five stars into NFL players now. So has anybody ever noticed or talked about how the Longhorn on the? DKR Stadium looks like a set of ovaries or am I the only one who thinks that every time I see it from that angle? This is the second time that you've mentioned something that was

not intended to look like the part of the female reproductive system. Yeah I don't know A chart that you would see in a gynecologist's office. I think you're seeing gynecological things when they're not there. One more question. We are in the state of Texas still It is a word That's a word. Interesting. Steven San Antonio, frequenter of the chat. Question for Ari, I've been fascinated by the whole gambling thing and how it's taken

over on TV, podcast, social media, society, etc. You've made it very clear your love for casino and sports betting. One thing I've always wanted to know regarding your bets are, do you turn a profit year after year? And if not, then why do it if you are maybe taking serious losses? Thanks, Steven San Antonio. So here's the deal. I've had real bad bets in the past. bets are, do you turn a profit year after year? And if not, then why do it if you are maybe taking serious losses? Thanks, Steven Stan Antonio.

So here's the deal. I've had really, really good years and really, really bad ones. I never gamble more money than I can afford to lose. So like in terms of the sickness aspect of it, I have a pile of money that I gamble from that is especially committed to gambling. So like, would you consider that to be like an entertainment budget?

So that's what I was going to say. I was going to say if I lost $7,000 between August and December in gambling on college football, that would suck. But the amount of enjoyment that that brought me during that six-month period would be worth the $7,000 to me. But the amount of enjoyment that that brought me during that six month period would be worth the $7,000 to me. And like you think about people who drink a lot or people that go out and do certain things

like from a social aspect that I don't really do. I'm not a huge drinker. I do it socially with friends, but I don't drink alone. I don't go to bars unless I'm with my wife or going to dinner. So like that's my form of entertainment. So like, that's how I'd rationalize it. But I do gamble on sports. I gamble with cards. I gamble with sports cards. I gamble, I'll bet my friend if we're at dinner, how long the food's gonna take instead of an over-under, embed a hundred bucks. Like, this is

who I am as a human. And I like enjoy it more than anything. I would say I'm a profitable poker player. If I go to the casino to play poker 10 times, I would probably walk away with more money, seven or eight. College football I'm pretty good at because the Tyler Shoemaker is really, really good at what he does and I follow him. But I would say that over the course of time, as boring of an answer it is,

is I'm probably marginally up or marginally down, but nothing that would impact me in a way. I've had a few gambling hits in my life that were massive, massive gambling hits that have kind of probably put me in the green. But yeah, like, if I have a bad year, I view it as entertainment loss. As someone who doesn't do it very much, that that's probably the way to do it. To have, this is my budget. It's when you can't control that, when you go over that,

when you spend more than you can. You have a problem. Probably stop and then I don't. But never enough where I would feel like I couldn't look my wife in the eye. You know, the one thing that I will say is I did join a card break where you pay x number of dollars to watch somebody open up a pair a box of cards and you get assigned a team. And I've like paid $38 for a spot and popped off a card that was worth 11 grand. Like, so like I've been kind of lucky

too and won some money in ways that other people don't win money. So, you know, all right. I've met your wife. You're one of the luckiest people in the world. It's okay. Yeah. Well, I mean that was all me though, dude.

Oh, yeah, just all Riz 100%. All right, Ari's got to go. We got to go have a wonderful weekend. We love you. Talk and win totals on Monday.