Andy & Ari On3 - How much should head-to-head matter in the College Football Playoff rankings? Georgia, 1st round bye? TJ Lateef at Nebraska

Episode Date: November 20, 2025

Before Week 13, the main topic of discussion in the College Football world is the recent rankings from the College Football Playoff committee. As Notre Dame sits ahead of teams like Alabama and Miami, plenty of fans sent in questions to discuss these rankings and if head to head really matters. Watch here as Andy & Ari answer some great questions from the listeners and dissect the head-to-head part of the CFP rankings. (0:00) On Today's Episode(0:51) Presenting Sponsor(3:00) Intro: Dear Andy & Ari(8:55) The Head-to-Head debate(10:16) Perspective from a Notre Dame fan(14:07) Continuing head-to-head(27:16) Gametime(27:54) Mulligan of the week(29:57) Notre Dame & Future Scheduling(31:42) Georgia, 1st round bye & no SECCG?(34:37) PaniniAmerica.net(37:25) Ari & the Big Ten(38:07) CFP & the basketball model?(45:35) TJ Lateef and Nebraska(55:29) Conclusion: See you Saturday! After the head-to-head discussion, Andy & Ari pick their mulligan of the week. Do you agree with Andy's pick? Later, more great questions from our listeners....Will Notre Dame still be able to schedule tough opponents in the future?What would the CFP look like if they used the basketball model?What's the future look like for TJ Lateef and Nebraska? Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/NJ_pi4n6aEM Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's Andy and Ari on three, how much should head-to-head matter in the college football playoff rankings? It's a dear Andy, dear Ari Show, and we have multiple questions about that very topic. I know you're thinking, this is yet another Miami-Nordane discussion? What's that? But it's also a potential Texas Vanderbilt discussion. It's also a potential Notre Dame USC discussion. There's a lot of ways this could go, and it's more of a philosophical discussion.

than one involving two particular teams. Also, we got questions about George's place in the college football playoff rankings and what might happen with the Bulldogs and a very intriguing question about the Nebraska quarterback situation. We'll talk about it all. On today's Andy Naurion 3, presented by BetMGM.

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and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3, presented by BetMGM. It is a dear Andy and Dear Arii show. Today is the day that you drive the show. And we got some great questions. The college football playoff committee has you in a pretzel. Us too, really. I mean, we've talked about it a lot.

but this is the majority of the questions. And it's one of those things where people will write it and say, well, why do you keep talking about this? Well, this is the thing people keep asking us about. So I'm going to assume that this is what a lot of you want to hear the answers to. Andy. And I'm not sure we have a lot of correct answers. Some people are like, why are you talking about the college football playoff in September?

And like, I think I can understand those people. If you're, why are you talking about the college football playoff right now, than like you have a very dysfunctional relationship with how the sport works and what people are interested in. I mean, we're talking about who gets into the postseason as a chance to win a championship and there are probably what I calculated 29 teams still alive. And you didn't even have Duke, which does have one weird scenario where it could make the ICC championship.

Well, I actually, like last year I made the decision that I'm going to eliminate teams that like have like a 1% chance or whatever of going because if if you keep people who could technically qualify still if 19 different things happen then the list would be 50 perpetually till the end of the year. So, um, you know, I made some decisions on that and maybe I gave a few teams that should be out the benefit of the doubt. I don't know. I thought that like I'm fairly confident. I think I would bet my life that the 12 teams that are on my list will be will be from that. There's not going to be no team that's not on my list that makes it. I think. But I bet my life and lose a lot, by the way. I don't know if you know about me. Absolutely. All right,

let's get to the questions. And one topic dominated the question. So I've got two questions on the topic kind of coming from different directions, but just this was like 50% of the questions we got. So we did. We obviously aren't reading them all, but a lot of them were about this very topic. And it is the subject of head-to-head with the college ball playoff selection committee. And I know you guys are probably thinking, well, this is just a Miami-Noderdame argument. It is not it could become a different kind of argument it could become a texas vanderbilt argument it could become a u.s.c. Notre Dame argument there's a lot of different ways this could go and it's not just this year this is one of those things that could go multiple years and I realize there are no precedence

really because this group of people changes but it just would be nice if they had a system that made sense you think so I want to ask you an RRI question before you asked that question I read this question. It'll mesh. But do you think that there should be precedent in past committees, like that they lean on the way they do in the law where it's like last year they did this, so we're bound to those things? Or do you think it should be a free thinking group that does its own thing every year and leaves us surprise like we are right now? I would like it to be somewhat consistent. Yeah. I would. I would like to know from year to year what we're getting. And look, legal precedent changes, too, as social mores change, as different parties come into power and appoint different judges or, you know, appoint different people to Supreme Court.

There could be a governing body that decides, hey, they did this the last four years. It's actually not right. We're going to do it this way now. And then we talk about it and are transparent about it so that the people understand. And I think it's better for our jobs if people are confused. Like, you know, people are like making fun of, like, when Notre Dame popped in that number or whatever. they were in the first in my face dropped. Everyone was just like, did you see Ari's face of confusion and anger and hatred

towards Notre Dame? And it's like, no, I'm just like trying to catch up with you guys. Well, that's what the Notre Dame fan said. Everybody else had the same reaction. And this is what I keep telling Notre Dame fans. You think we're all against you. If this were another team involved and you had no, no dog in the fight, you would say the same thing we are.

Yeah. It's just because it's your team that you're coming up with reasons for this. for head-to-head to not matter. And I actually tweeted this last night, and I think it's important to read on the show. And I'm speaking for you too here, Andy. I have absolutely zero bias when discussing Notre Dame. Last year, I predicted Notre Dame would make the playoff

two days after they lost to NIU, and I remained consistent in that. I don't begin convoes, and we don't begin combos on the show by considering the helmet. It's our job to talk about the sport in general. My opinion about this specific matter is not centered around Notre Dame. It's centered around the college football playoff process, and Notre Dame happens to be at the center of it. If you flip the resumes with Miami, I'd be writing and talking about how Notre Dame is being improperly treated.

You and many of the other people in the mentions and on the show who are accusing me of being biased are solely in this conversation to defend your favorite team. That's great. You're a fan. You're supposed to do that. You should keep doing it. But any rational person can see which one of us is clearly thinking in this discussion. crying bias because my arguments impede an irreability to offend your team is childish,

especially when talking to someone who pencil Notre Dame into the national championship game no more than 10 months ago. Well, and it's the whole thing of like, you write a, like I'll write a column that is, you know, it's an opinion column, it's entirely subjective. And somebody would like, that was the most objective thing

I've read. And I always know, like, no, that's the thing you agreed with the most. It was entirely subjective. My favorite is when you write a column and they say, well, that's just your opinion. opinion. I'm like, yeah. Yes. You're right. All right. D.C. Res with our first question. Serious question, and I'll send it to super chat if necessary to get you to answer it. But you don't have to

D.C. Res. We're here. Are all head-to-heads equal in your mind? By that, I mean, our neutral site head-to-head wins more valuable than home head-to-heads. Our blowout head-to-head wins more valuable than close head-to-head wins, et cetera. If so, shouldn't that impact how heavily waited a close narrow win in August at home in week one is relative to two unranked losses. The committee is screaming to people that winning a home game against a team by a field goal, home field in college is worth three points, according to Vegas, mind you. In week one, isn't some inscrutable barrier that keeps you in front of a team irrespective of future losses, especially unranked losses.

How is that not logical? And if it isn't, why would anyone play around a week one game out of conference going forward? Nick Saban refused that for that very reason. I think he said a road week one game. I think that there's another question. Let me ask, let me read the other question because I think, so that's a Notre Dame fan

who really wants to be right about Notre Dame and wants, and I guarantee you if the situation reversed, they'd be telling us how much head-to-head matters. That's, and it's okay, you're a fan. You want your team to win. I actually think that was a well-thought-out question. It was very well-thought-out,

and we're going to answer it, But first, I want to read Chris's question. This is from Chris. Dear Andy Nari, as a diehard Notre Dame alum and fan, I am always perusing the college football online discourse. This year, it's been especially interesting to track Notre Dame's progress in the polls following their 0-2. Start potentially squeaking into the college football playoff.

As we approach Selection Sunday, I've been increasingly annoyed at some of the conversations I see online as it pertains to Notre Dame in Miami. Notre Dame and Miami are both 8 and 2, and will most likely finish 10 and 2. Miami also beat Notre Dame in week 1. Why should Notre Dame be ranked ahead of Miami in the playoff rankings? Do the games not matter?

The argument against this stance has largely been composed of two points. Notre Dame has passed the eye test while Miami has not. This is true. Miami has worse losses than Notre Dame does. Also true. To point number one, I would somewhat agree. If Notre Dame and Miami played this weekend, I would pick Notre Dame to win, and I think a large portion of fans would agree.

But that's not the point of the rankings. They should reflect the results on the field. To point number two, does that really matter if we have a head-to-head result? If Miami had lost to Boston College or Syracuse, then maybe we can have that conversation. But they didn't. SMU and Louisville are respectable ACCC teams and both are seven and three. If I was a playoff committee member and it really came down to Miami or Notre Dame for the last spot, it's a no-brainer for me. The results on the field have to matter.

I don't understand what the national discourse, including the playoff committee itself, continue to acknowledge all of the data but that result. I'm as big a fan of Notre Dame as they come. I lived in the same norm as Jeremiah Love and was a lab partner with former left tackle Joe Alt. Am I happy Notre Dame is ranked ahead of Alabama and Miami? As a fan, yes. Is it fair? Not really.

I just want to let you know that there are more rational Notre Dame fans that aren't the keyboard warriors you see on Twitter. Love the show and never skip leg day, signed Chris. You know, the fact that he said that he was a lab partner with Joe Alt, like, would love to have him on to talk about that because that's electric. But like. I bet Joe Alt was a great lab partner, too. Yeah. When we were at- Very giving.

When we were at the tailgate at Georgia this past weekend, we had a few fans from Texas come up and see us, okay? And we had a few Georgia fans that were there to see us. And we met a few Georgia fans. And one of the Georgia fans that we met put together after we were talking about football for 10 minutes that he follows me on Twitter. And this person said he followed me

because I am the big 10 guy and he wanted to have different thoughts and not be in the think chamber that is just the consistent thing that you see whenever you follow only people that agree with you already. And like one, I was laughing because I'm the Big Ten guy, I guess.

Right. But mad respect for that philosophy. Right. I wanted to go out on a limb and say, hey, it takes a lot of smarts, I think, to be willing to want to absorb the other viewpoint. And I don't think that I should represent the contrary viewpoint, I'm just, but you're a little tenor, Ari. Brad from making said it. But like, I think that like more people should be like that of like, I think this. Let me see if what I think actually lives up to the scrutiny of the other side. I mean, it's like the

scientific method. Like, yeah. I hypothesize this, but I will then test my hypothesis. And this is, I will challenge my own assumptions and I will think through these things critically and rationally. And I wonder if everybody did that in all walks of life, if, the world would just be a better place. It would be, but people don't want to do that. It's hard. It's hard to challenge your own assumptions. It's painful sometimes, and it's uncomfortable.

But let's go back to low leverage, too. We're talking about college football. If you want to be blinded by your fanhood, then do it. Like, it's like, but I'm just mean like, I want to, but to me, listen, I'm fine if people are blinded by their fanhood. That's what keeps us employed. So that's, it's fine. I want to go back to DC Res' question because it is a really good and well-thought-out

question. do all head-to-heads matter the same they don't they really don't blowouts obviously mean more neutral site home road all that matters all of it matters the thing is when you get down to brass tax though it's not just an arbitrary thing you won the head-to-head that's it you're in over this team it's not because like Alabama Georgia is a good example of that Alabama has a horrific loss to Florida State and lost to Oklahoma. Should they be ahead of Georgia?

They beat them on the road. Yeah. I think the one thing that's gotten lost in this because one of the beauties of being able to clip our show is that we get a 30 second or a minute clip to preview what we're talking about, but then people who don't watch the show don't realize there's another 20 minutes of that conversation that provides all the context. And I think people think

that we only think that Notre Dame should be ranked behind Miami because of that one result. Now, well, let's let's take Notre Dame and Miami out of it then. I want to have a different discussion. Okay. You ready? Yeah. Texas beats Texas, well, Texas beats Arkansas this weekend and then beats Texas A&M next weekend. Finishes the season nine and three. Vanderbilt beats Kentucky and then beats Tennessee and finishes 10 and 2. Texas played Ohio State as its tough non-conference opponent. Vanderbilt played Virginia Tech as its tough non-conference opponent. Texas lost, Vanderbilt won.

They are down to the last at-large spot. It is going to Texas or Vanderbilt. Which team are you taking? So that's a difficult discussion. It is the same discussion as Miami and Notre Dame, the same one. Did you add a loss to Vanderbilt's resume in this scenario? No. They don't have the same record.

So it's the same record. So it's actually more extreme. But here's this is what I'm saying. You're going to pick Texas in that one because they won the head to head. I think you would pick Texas, my gut, when you. you were asking is picking Texas because of the head to head. But I also think that Texas's body of work in terms of who they've beaten and who they've played closely probably represents more with what, but at the same time.

Well, Texas has one of those good losses that Notre Dame has. Right. Now, that's, I don't like rewarding losses, but if we're doing it, like that's the best loss you could possibly have, a seven point game on the road. That's what I'm saying is, I keep saying if we take Notre Dame to Miami out of it, Yeah. Notre Dame fans. I'm not asking you about Notre Dame of Miami. What I just laid out, who gets in, Texas or Vanderbilt? If you said Texas, then you think Miami should be in over Notre Dame in your heart of hearts. Yeah. And another thing, if Vanderbilt got chosen over Texas, I would understand that because they did better in their schedule. like if they were if they were like now if if Texas had scheduled if if Texas is scheduled

if Texas is scheduled Austin P instead of Ohio State then they would be 10 and two also exactly but in that scenario it's not egregious because they don't have the same or or I'll do apples apples if Texas is scheduled Virginia Tech or let's say a comparable ACC opponent which would be what Syracuse or Boston College Texas would have beaten that team Yeah, I think we're saying the same thing. If you made Vanderbilt 9 and 3 and gave them the same record, which is the inverse of that, but gets you to the same place,

which is these two teams played each other and have the same record, which is actually Miami and Notre Dame, and you would pick Texas without thinking about it. The only reason why you would have any pause in this scenario is because Vanderbill has one fewer loss. Because I do kind of like, I understand, like, if Texas beats A&M this year, that is all we're going to talk about.

If they didn't schedule Ohio State, then they would be 10 and 2. but if you didn't lose to Florida, you would also have been 10 and 2. Like, I feel like that is such a, we're going to get back to the Texas has a bad loss. It's the same reason Alabama is where they are right now because they have a bad loss. It's the same exact conversations we were having about teams that lost big time non-conference games. Notre Dame does not have a bad loss. The two teams Notre Dame lost who are really good.

Miami doesn't actually have a bad loss either. the two teams Miami lost you are pretty good. Let me take this a step further. Is it harder? And this might be total galaxy brain, but I was thinking about this last night. But I noticed what the question outlined, which is everybody is saying that

noter, I mean that Miami's losses are too bad teams and those teams aren't bad, right? They're not great. They're playing each other, so somebody else is losing this weekend, but yes. I almost wonder if they, lost to a team that was worse if it would be easier to stomach and throw away as a fluke.

I think losing the seven and three teams that are pretty good, but not great makes it feel like that was less of a fluke and more of you losing four quarters to a team. But I would bet that SMU and Louisville finished nine and three and eight and four, unless motivated Mark Stoops takes down Louisville in last week. Yeah, which will probably bode well for them. But yeah. So I think the answer to the question is, yes, head-to-head in the weight that those carry are different based on where they are, what the margin of victory was, how they looked. And here's the other thing, too, Andy.

Do you remember where we were when we watched this game? Which game? The Notre Dame Miami game. We're in Atlanta. We just watched South Carolina play Virginia Tech. Remember what we were eating? Pizza. Domino's.

I just like for a bit of memory. I know that there's been a lot of a lot of, because I just like want to go back to the place in time where you and I were watching. Listen, if they don't sponsor us, we don't need to. Domino spends some money. We'll talk more about you. I also made a lewd joke about you on the couch before we started our post-in show. I do remember that. But I wanted to put us back into that moment because there's been a lot of like revisionist history on how that game went. Andy, it was a three-point game and it is a four-quarter game and you can't say that you've, blew out a team that you beat by three. But like Miami kicked Notre Dame's ass for three quarters of that game.

And like everybody's forgetting that. Like that wasn't. In control? What? Game control? That's the Notre Dame fans have been thrown game control at me all year. If you actually like go through Miami's games this year, that's like a criticism of them. When they are up on teams, they take their foot off the throttle.

They did it against four state game. We were at. Yeah. Like I thought that Miami was clearly the better team for three quarters. Now on the other side of it. But too, we also have to give Notre Dame and Olive Branch. C.J. Carr made a throw against Pitt that they should put in the Louvre. Okay. C.J. Carr is probably a much better player now than he was in week one.

Notre Dame has gotten better, at least perceptually, or perceptually. Well, let's play. Hey, let's play a little BEDMGM guess the line. Miami Notre Dame on a neutral field. What is the line? wasn't the line Notre Dame minus three the first time just for I think that Notre Dame I believe it was

yes I would say that Notre Dame would be favored by three all right I am so this is not what Vegas uses but I'm going to use I'm going to use our guy Parker Fleming's website CFB

hyphen graphs.com it's great site so much fun to play around with uses advanced stats to create matchup previews and gives you the predicted final score of a game, which is exactly what Vegas uses. You know, that type of thing.

Vegas uses set the line. So on a neutral field, Notre Dame would be a four-point favorite against Miami. Yeah, just like the first one. According to this. Yeah. Yeah. And lost.

Yep. So there you go. That's part of the reason why, like, I respect that. I actually think if you wanted to make the case that Notre Dame is better than Miami right now, like I'm willing to have that discussion. with you now it gets into this which is what's best and most deserving like that's the annual conversation we have i want you to keep the same energy though if texas and vanderbilt wind up in that scenario we talked about i want you to be all over vanderbilt i want you to be like

bandy's got to make it why not you the people of them yeah yeah but also i actually think you can make a a good faith case that vanderbilt is better than texas even though they lost because texas has gotten i mean well they played their last time out like What if USC wins out? I mean, obviously Notre Dame's in over USC because they played in Notre Dame one, right? Here's another scenario that won't play out because it gets tricky with tiebreakers, but what if Michigan and USC went out? Like you have another head-to-head scenario there.

Another head-to-head, and USC beat Michigan pretty thoroughly. It would never come into play, though, because if USC wins out, then they will play in the Big Ten championship game. And then that kind of makes things a little more. Not necessarily. Yeah. If they both went out, Michigan. There's these teams called Indiana and Ohio State.

Yes, if they both went out, Michigan, that means Michigan wins out. I don't know. I got to check tiebreakers on that, buddy. Tyebreaker because they beat them head to head, right? I'm going to need to check tiebreakers on this. Hold on. I look at this up, I'm like 90% sure. I'll sing, knees eyes.

All right. I'm ready. Here we go. Okay. You have an India, correct, Indiana, USC. Right. Big Ten title. Then like you're right.

And the head to head goes out the window because then USC has a chance. of playing itself into the thing. But I actually think that Michigan and USC would go in the scenario. But if that happens, Andy, USC wins out, Michigan wins out. Michigan then possesses the best win in college football. USC wins the Big Ten. Or I mean, USC loses in the Big Ten championship game who goes to the playoff, both. But if you had to pick one, who would you pick?

It's the same discussion, the team that won the game or the team that... Right. And so Notre Dame fans, I want you to say it's the team that lost the game. and there's one I can guarantee you you won't say that and that is if they're comparing a 10 and 2 USC and a 10 and 2 Notre Dame because then you're going to be like well no it should be the team that won the game right and that would be the funniest thing

the funniest thing is if the last at large spot comes down to 10 and 2 USC 10 and 2 Notre Dame and 10 and 2 Miami yeah um just puts everybody in but then for those of us who don't care who aren't fans of any of those teams, then we just pick the team that we think would do best in the playoff. Yeah, then head the head goes up the window because somebody would have to have lost to a team.

You know who I'd pick in that scenario? Who? Notre Dame. Me too. That's the thing that people don't understand about our point. We're not bashing Notre Dame, and it's not that we don't think they're good. We're trying to defend the sanctity of the games. Exactly.

But if it gets to a point where the head-to-head is neutralized and somebody is going to have to get left out. I think that Miami's season would have been probably not as impressive as USC's in that scenario and Notre Dame's. Like, we're with you. Like, all your talking points, we understand. We watch the games. We see it too.

And a lot of you have some pretty good points. And I got to be honest, there is nothing more clever than a college football fan with their backs against their wall trying to make a case for their team to make the playoff. Because these people are really smart and they come up a really good scenario. These people need to be hired as political strategist because, you know, it's really

hard sometimes for these politicians because they'll talk their way into corners that you think they can't get out of. But if you hire a college football fan as your PR person, they will come up with an argument that will get you out of the corner. I'm assuming there's a hive of Utah fans out there right now thinking and explaining why Utah should be in the playoff and they can make a pretty compelling case for it. So, you know, Notre Dame fans keep fighting the good fight. I actually think that it's probably most likely with the way that we, the sport usually plans out that both teams will go, and I kind of hope that they do. But, you know, USC has a really big game this weekend, and Michigan has a pretty big game that we're going to be going to in a few weeks,

and there's a lot of results that's only to pour in. And Miami, I'm saying this to you directly, Mario Christmas ball, I'm talking to you directly on behalf of all of your fans, don't lose the pit. Yeah, yeah. That game is the hallmarked game that Miami would lose. It's literally the same thing in the same spot as Syracuse last year. All right, Ari, the biggest game this weekend is USC Oregon. If you'd like to go see the USC Oregon game at Austin Stadium, there are still plenty of good seats available on Game Time. Download the Game Time app.

You can redeem the code Staples for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply, of course. And you can see exactly where you'd be sitting in Austin Stadium. They've got great, you know, 50-yard line, 20 rows up seats. If you want to go a little lower price, you can sit in the end zone, but they got it all. And the price you see is the price you pay. No stupid fees tacked on at checkout. The price you see is the price you pay.

Redeem the code staples for $20 off your first purchase. Game time. Swipe, tap, ticket, go. All right. It's Mulligan time. It's Thursday. We get to take mulligans on our picks. And I'm looking at the games that we picked.

I am not sure I want to take any mulligans. Okay. There's been zero line movement in any of the games that you can just improve your spread in? No, no, because, well, if you were taking Penn State over Nebraska, it's gone down to eight and a half. But I took Nebraska. I think you did too. Yeah. This would be one, like, if you just changed your mind on Georgia Tech Pit, which I think is basically a pick-em.

it's a two and a half point spread then I think maybe you might do that or if you just change your mind on Tennessee Florida which is a three and a half point spread but I still feel pretty good about everything I picked

yeah Missou in Oklahoma is still nine and a half at Bed MGM looking for it right now on the old Bed MGM app hold on I was in the night games I'm moving up toward the noon games

all right Missou is oh Mizzu is now a seven and a half point dog at Oklahoma. So yes, I will take that. I will take that point. Ari, why'd you tell him? Why'd you tell him? Yes, I'll take those two points. I have Oklahoma

to cover, so I will take Oklahoma minus seven and a half instead of Oklahoma minus nine and a half. Thank you very much. Okay, I just helped my opponent. But I think I'm going to stay put. It doesn't look like anything changed on my end. I got good value on the zoo. Speaking of

that game, let us peruse the student athlete availability report. Boopreview is doubt. for that game. That's what he was listed last week as well. Okay. Yeah. I'm just, this is just a Thomas questionable for Oklahoma. This is just a pure spot play. And Andy, I wanted to, before we move on to the next question,

I wanted to just ask you a question on behalf of somebody who emailed me about Notre Dame that I think you would have a really good answer for. Okay. Okay. Hey, Ari, Notre Dame. This is Tim from California. Notre Dame fan here. One thing that regretful, I'm one of the few that regretfully agrees with you on all the discourse about Notre Dame and Miami. My question is this. If it comes down to Miami and Notre Dame for one playoff spot, would it be better for Notre Dame if they just didn't get this year to preserve future matchups with other teams?

We rely competitively on good teams wanting to play us to legitimize ourselves as relevant independent college football team. I'm afraid that if we get what we want in this instance with a win over Miami, when all things are even, that will endanger our chances of continue to book future teams. like Miami and then us getting in the playoffs later. I don't think that's going to hurt you because there's a lot of other factors at play when you're scheduling games. And one when you schedule Notre Dame is

the fans of the team that Notre Dame is coming to play get very excited about Notre Dame coming and they're going to fill the stadium. They're going to buy more season tickets that season. So I don't think that's a problem. I think Notre Dame will be fine on that front. And like Miami Notre Dame, Miami has

to play Notre Dame because there's a scheduling agreement with the ACC where Notre Dame plays five ACC teams a year. So the ACC will make Miami play Notre Dame. The ACC will make Florida State play Notre Dame. They'll make, you know, Virginia Tech, we think we'll get better under James Franklin. They will make them play Notre Dame. So I think you're going to be fine on that front. And again, the SEC and the Big Ten teams that schedule Notre Dame, they like

having Notre Dame come to their stadium. It's a big deal. Their fans love traveling to South Bend. So I don't think you're going to have a problem on that front. Because remember, getting into the CFP is not the only factor involved in scheduling. I knew you had a good answer for it. I just wanted to let you cook for a minute. All right. All right.

Let's get a question from Jacoby. Is there a scenario where Georgia gets a first round by without playing in its conference championship game? If Alabama beats Texas A&M, is there a chance that both of the teams in the SEC championship game get left out of the top four and Georgia takes that spot? So Jacoby is not a matter of Georgia. taking that spot. George is in that spot already. Georgia is it, like Georgia probably moves up to three or maybe even two in that scenario and still gets a buy and doesn't have to play in the conference championship game.

But I think the better question is if Alabama wins the SEC, let's say A&M wins out and Alabama plays A&M for the SEC title and Alabama wins. is Alabama then ranked above Georgia, which Alabama did beat on the road, has one more loss then, but they also would have one more win and it would be a very high quality win against Texas.

I think that they would jump them at that point. I think you're right. Here's the pertinent question. How far does the loser of the Ohio State Indiana game fall? I don't think they're going to fall very far at all. If they go in, we're assuming Ohio State beats Michigan here, I don't think they fall far at all. It may not fall.

If it's a close game, they might not fall at all. Okay, because that's the scenario here is that there's already two SEC teams in the top four. Now, are there any non-SEC or Big Ten teams that have a chance of finishing in the top four? That's probably a no, which means that two from each are going to go. Which two is it? Is it going to be the loser of the SEC championship game or is it going to be Georgia? I guess it depends on what the game looks like. But I do think that there is a scenario where Georgia does get a buy without having to play in its conference championship game,

unless the committee members don't allow that because it's not fair. Yeah. We'll see. I don't think they have a choice, though. They changed the rules on this thing. Remember, the rules last year, which seems so convoluted, were set up for a world with five fairly balanced power conferences. It was set up for a world where Oklahoma and Texas were still in the Big 12,

where the PAC 12 still existed. It would have made a lot of sense in that world. It doesn't make sense in this world where most of the power is concentrated in the SEC and the Big Ten. Do you have any philosophical feelings about whether or not, a team that doesn't do enough in the regular season to play in its conference championship game should not have to get a buy or should? But I don't think Georgia didn't do enough. I think Georgia, it's a function of the schedule. They legitimately did not do enough or they would be playing in it. They would be. They'd beat in Alabama, but. So like, do you think there should be a rule

written into the protocol that says if you didn't play in your conference championship games, you do not get a top four? No, let's not overcomplicate this. Okay. I, and, and, and, and, And you'll see when we get to this next question. Why? Okay, go ahead. So this question, oh, actually before that, let's rip a Panini pack. So visit pininiamerica.net to start your collection of your favorite college and NFL stars, the most collectible sports cards on the planet.

Ari has an incredible collection, and he's always wheeling and dealing with his cards. I am opening a pack of Donneros right now. We got a Jaden Reed. We got Trey Tucker. We got a Josh Simmons rated rookie, former Buckeye right there. Xavier Watts, rated rookie, former Notre Dame Fighting Irish Safety.

Blake Corum. You got your current Atlanta Falcons starter, Kirk Cousins. Got an elite series, Alvin Camara. Bomb Squad, Tyler Warren. Remember, I pulled a Tyler Warren autograph, turn of the century, numbered out of a pack of Donorous Elite yesterday. We got Dave Craig in the classic Seahawks uniform and then Jalen McMillan. So, yeah, my Tyler Warren collection continues to grow, Ari, and I'm feeling pretty good about that.

You know, yesterday before I knew we were going to do this, I was thinking about, I've got a few really big Kyle Pitts cards I wanted to show you, but they're like locked up and I forgot to do it. So Kirk Cousins throw it to Kyle Pitts already needs you. badly yeah i think that that ship has sailed um i've already showed this card but i want to show it again because it's a college football show and it's like one of the most beautiful cards i own and i'm never going to sell it no matter what it's this jackson smith and jigba college silhouette signatures out of uh 2023 national treasures and this is the uh rose bull patch he's wearing the rose bull uniform in the picture on the card has signed it and then you have the patch from the rose bowl patch into the card and that's the game where he had like 350 yards

receiving i would definitely never sell that like that's a great especially if you're an ohio state fan that's an incredible keepsake and you know i'm a big buck i so like you know but somebody caught me uh in the chat yesterday okay pinini is amazing uh pinini is amazing it's my favorite like my wife asked me what are your hobbies and like i don't really have any the hobby is your hobby what i collect cards and i sell them i buy them i rip wax i I flipped them. I engage in them. And I'm sponsored by them. Is that count as a hobby? She just meant like, no, like do something manly with your hands. And I'm like, okay, well, I put them in the sleeves. She wants you to learn to whittle. I think she wants me to learn how to fix the garbage disposal.

But that's a hobby. And it's the hobby. The greatest hobby in the world, it's the cross section between sports, gambling and investing. It's amazing. Panini, America.net, to start your collection day. What happened in the chat? Yesterday I said, we need as college football fans for Michigan to be nine and two going into the Ohio State game because it creates the, you know, more stakes for the game. The drama. Yes. Yeah. And then I also said Ohio State fans should be rooting for that too because if you win that game, you should be wanting to take something from your opponent. That's what makes rivalries great.

And somebody wrote in the chat, oh, finally the silent part has been said, Buckeye Ari wants to be able to take something. You just want him to hurt more. yeah like god man like if you want something to be true enough you can make it true i'll tell you so okay this one's from nick good question and sent a spreadsheet and normally when you send a spreadsheet i don't read the question but this was a good spreadsheet since last night cfp reveal was in between the basketball games i wondered what the teams would look like if we objectively use the basketball committee's approach i used the most recent sp plus rankings and created quads of 34, so like the net rankings do with the quad system.

We are conditioned to evaluate teams in terms of top 25 wins, but is there really a big difference when you see the 20th rated team and the 34th rated one? It's a great point. Nick's been listening for a long time. I was able to graphically show wins and losses, link below, and we have a screenshot. Within each quad for the teams that merit consideration for that large birth, the data shows only FBS games played and the order is the CFP ranking from last night. This is strictly based on wins and losses while I understand there are other evaluation tools.

A few things stood out in my opinion. The top three, Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas, A&M might be in the wrong order. There's no reason Texas should be considered for an at-large birth. Not sure Georgia Tech is an at-large consideration, even with a win versus Georgia. Alabama should be fine. Notre Dame and Miami are close. Why all the love for Utah? And Michigan loses a head-to-head comparison with Oregon and USC if they all finished 10 and 2.

And so what Nick did was essentially, it's, It's not, this is kind of a cross between the RPI and the net ranking. So the net ranking in basketball is what they use to parse teams for the selection committee. Now, the difference with the net ranking is it does use a lot of efficiency type stats and it's a more complicated a mathematical formula. The RPI is not a complicated formula at all. The RPI is your winning percentage, your opponent's winning percentage and your opponent's opponent's winning percentage. So 50% your winning percentage, 25% your opponent's winning percentage, 25% your opponent's opponent's winning percentage.

But this was just Nick doing a quick and dirty. And I thought it was a pretty good one. So let's look at Nick's screenshot. If you're watching on the YouTube, you can see it there. I'm trying to pull up my DM with Producer River, where I have the actual screenshot here. Okay, so Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia all with with four quad one wins

where it changes a little bit is Ohio State only has one quad two win the rest are quad three and Indiana has two quad two wins now in in the if you did the net rankings some of these would be weighted more by on their road are they at home yeah and so we don't have that here but this is this is instructive because like I said it's a quick and dirty thing So Texas A&M with four quad one wins and four quad two wins, you'd think,

okay, that's probably where maybe you want to make them number one. Alabama has the most quad one wins if anybody's wondering. So this would be one through 34, essentially, with five. They're the only team with five quad one wins. And the only other team with four quad one wins is Oklahoma. old miss only has two texas tech only has two oregon only has three uh texas tech has four quad two wins old miss has six quad two wins so that's where like your two lane win helps a little bit so i i just think this is an interesting way to think about it and well i don't know if there's that

you have from here andy because he has these in order of the actual rankings still right yes he hasn't changed the order yeah mathematically and like assign a point value to them if the ranking would be different. Yeah. Now, he's using SP Plus, which does use advanced stats. That's how he created the quad system. That's how he split up the, and what he means by quad is you divide the number of FBS teams by four.

Quadrant. And yeah, quad one, quad two, quad three, quad four. So. Yeah. But the thing that is more interesting to me, like, thank you for doing this, is you know what blows my mind, Andy? Hmm. Remember our old colleague, Chris Vanini?

Yeah. Remember that guy? Yeah, definitely. I'm aware of Chris Benini's existence. He does something that I think is harder than anything that any of us do. He ranks all 130 whatever teams. 136 right now, yeah. He ranks every single one of them.

And if you know how hard it is to assemble a top 20 or a top 25 from the AP poll or even a top 10, which I struggle with every Saturday night at 10 p.m. The undertaking. And he takes all day and does it on Sunday, all day. should the college football playoff committee be ranking further than 25 and should there be a system that rewards you for winning a 29 or 32 or a 33 opponent? Yeah, the more I look at this, the more I'm okay with it. Like, and the thing is the net ranking is not the be all and end all for the basketball committee.

it doesn't it doesn't require them to rank them a certain way it just guides them and like apparently the hockey one is much more this is what you must do and you don't really have a lot of wiggle room but yeah

the basketball one it's more of a guide but it's a good guide and so I I actually would be cool with this I think I would be cool with it too I think that it would be harder to have arguments because there's more information.

But I do like, like, I'm looking at the AP poll just because it shows you like other teams that are out of the poll that received votes. Right. And it just has a comparative metric. I know it doesn't mean anything. But like, I'm looking at Mizzou, right? And that's a team that was that got back into the college football playoff rankings. Like, is Mizzou so much better than Iowa or? or Louisville or SMU or Illinois,

where beating them means something, but beating Illinois doesn't. And like, where do you draw that line? Yeah, the 25 cut line is a silly thing because the top 25 is just because that's what the AP decided to use decades ago. And where would you draw that line? I think 35 would be a good number. I think a top 35.

Are we forming a Super League? Is that what we're doing? Well, I'm just saying, like, instead of doing a. I'd say 40 or 50. And is it too, is it unreasonable to ask the committee to watch all those games? Probably. But we do have all these stats and metrics and companies that create advanced stats and systems to do this. We'd all have to agree on it.

And I think the formula would have to be available. And they're already watching a lot of those teams play every week when they play teams that they're focused on. So like it's not, I don't know how much extra work it would be, but it would be very interesting to say because like every single week when we're doing the playoff reveal it's like oh okay everybody muzoo's back in the top 25 now so that means that someone has a quality win that they didn't have last week even though it's the same exact team and it's kind of stupid it's kind of stupid yes um that was a really good question that was really that was really interesting yeah all right next question i hesitated but i had to this is from tyler i am in a

a Nebraska, I can't talk today. I am a Nebraska fan, Tyler writes, and I acknowledge that this is putting the cart way before the horse. Yes, it is. But how good does T.J. Lateef have to be down the stretch to make a mysterious candidate to supplant Dylan Riola next year. I anticipate this will not be a question in a few weeks because I'm sure Lateef will have some freshman moments against good defense's win or lose. They play Penn State and Iowa, by the way. And I think Dylan will be the QB next year, despite his brother decommitting. I'm just curious where the hypothetical bar is for a guy like Latif to come in and potentially supplant a five-star with a lot of potential talent. I'm sure this can be applied to other teams across CFB at any position. That's right,

Tyler. It can. And so this is not necessarily a Nebraska only question, but we can use this specific situation because it is educational. So for those who don't know, Dylan Riola got hurt in the USC game. He's out for the year. T.J. Lateef comes in. His first start was against UCLA. He played really well. It was 13 to 15, very efficient. and look good. He's now got to play Penn State, and then he's got to play Iowa. If he balls out against both those defenses, there will be an interesting conversation to be had,

and it's not necessarily because of anything anybody did wrong. It's because of what somebody did right. It's because T.J. Lateef played really well. And the conversation is this, and I realize there's a lot to this because Dylan Raola's brother Dayton just decommitted for Nebraska, and people are drawing all sorts. sorts of conclusions. Let's also be realistic, too. Dylan Raolo isn't just a five-star prospect. Like, his arrival at Nebraska was a moment. Correct. And he's a legacy. His father played there.

His uncle works there. Yes. Those are all things that matter. So what does it mean if T.J. Lateef is awesome against Penn State and against Iowa, and they win? Well, here's what it means. It means that T.J. Lateef's going to have a decision, which means Matt Rule's going to have a decision, which means Dylan Raola is going to have a decision. And so all of these things are interconnected. Because if T.J. Lateef balls out, guess what? All the other programs in college football that need a quarterback are going to go, huh, Dylan Raola is going to be back next year. That dude looks pretty good. Can we get him? It's funny that you say that, Andy, because as you were- Illinois, but T.J. Lateef I'm talking about.

It's funny to say that because as you were reading the question, I was like, this is like a very 2015 question because if T.J. Latif falls out, he might be like Baylor starting quarterback next year. Like that doesn't like the assumption that there's going to be some sort of fall camp battle next year between these two. I think if T.J. Lateef balls out. That means that one of them's not on the team next year. Right. It means it means that somebody's starting somewhere else next year because they have two starter quality quarterbacks and the market. says you can't keep two starter quality quarterbacks unless you're willing to overpay one of them. Now, the interesting question off of that is

and this is just a hypothetical question to you, how much better does Lateef have to be than Ryola for Matt Rule to go a different direction program-wise? Do you think if he's

one percent better at the no-brainer or does he have to be 20 percent? No, it'd have to be overwhelmingly better. Okay, because of the implications that that would mean for the direction of the school. Because Dylan Raola isn't just a really good player. He's the type of person that is supposed to change the guard there. Like when you think about how much his commitment meant and how much it's like symbolically represented for the growth of Nebraska. Like I don't think moving on from him is as simple as well, the backups better.

Like it might be like as your backup. Exactly. And that's why I said it in the order that I said it. Yeah, Lateef will have a decision, rule will have a decision, then Riola. I think Riola is, unless Riola just decides he wants to be somewhere else, which I don't, we don't have any indication of that. I would think he has, he's the favorite no matter what, unless Latif is just, look, if Latif is the best you've ever seen for these next two weeks against this defense that's not that great, but has. lots of NFL players on it. Yeah.

And the Iowa defense that is great. Well, okay, then we'll have a different conversation. But I suspect, as Tyler pointed out in his email, that there will be some freshman moments here. He has to be sensational for this to be a thing. Not good. He has to be sensational. Yeah. Yes.

I do suspect, though, that there will be a lot of other teams watching this performance this week and next because everybody's looking for a quarterback. always everybody's always looking for a quarterback and if it does happen and he does transfer and he goes somewhere else and raola stays the starting quarterback at nebraska which is probably the bet mGM favorite in terms of scenarios at the moment you better be damn sure that he doesn't end up being better than raola because then that becomes a black check on rules decision making fair or not well it's like the duane haskins joe burrow thing was the duane haskins joe burrow decision wrong in the moment didn't seem like it.

No. But it apparently was. It certainly was the wrong decision. Now, the thing that people forget about that scenario, and I had a front row seat to this was, Joe Burrow wasn't sensational his first year at LSU. Right. He was pretty good, but he was not great. Dwayne Haskins was really good right away as a starter.

So when you put yourself back in the Ohio State staff's position, they made that decision based on the evaluations of the following season. what Joe Burrow ended up doing two years later was completely foreign to them because they didn't see that person. So and but could you imagine if Dwayne Haskins didn't become a first round pick himself like what people would have thought?

Like if Dwayne Housins would have just been fine. But they chose a first round pick. So it like made it okay. But by the time Joe Burrow. Even though they both were first round picks. And then by the time Joe Burrow had his Heisman season, Justin Fields was playing. there and he ended up being a first round pick too so like right it but like in this scenario

i don't know if justin fields is popping through the door so like you need you might be way worse off if you're nebraska if you let the wrong one walk in this hypothetical waste five steps ahead of of a conversation but this is and and the thing is like as as tyler said it's this is not exclusively in a bratt like there's this is going on everywhere This is going on at every school. And it's, you know, like, well, like the Ole Miss situation with Trinidad Shambliss and Austin Simmons this year, we need to know the outcome of the Lane Kiffin decision before we can know anything else.

But like, is Austin Simmons back? Somebody will pay off. And Trinidad Shambliss, I believe, is out of eligibility. So. Yeah. Yeah. But now that you lost your job, like, there's so. There's so much that goes on. We had the story about Sam Levitt.

Pete Nacos and Steve Wolfong wrote the story about Sam Levitt the other day. Sam Levitt, obviously, if he enters the portal, will be a massive name. He'll be one that almost everybody is after. There's a lot of other quarterbacks. And it's interesting because we've had kind of a company. We got specific intel about Sam Levitt that led to that story. as a company we've kind of decided not to speculate on people who aren't in the portal unless we're told they're going in the portal so there's other quarterbacks we could

we could spend this out for and there's other people I think we want to go to that road play that game that game in their own head people are having that are playing that game at at fudruckers at lunch with their friends so like you know you can do that and that's fine the one thing that we both acknowledge though and I'm happy that you agree with me on this because sometimes we disagree on stuff like this is that this is a much different decision than just is a three star defensive tackle on Oregon better than the five star they signed like this is there's more oh when you're starting quarterback it's a very different decision and the difference like the the the defensive tackle question like

maybe you move one of them to nose maybe one of them's quick and can lose some weight and move to edge like there's all kind quarterbacks you can't do that it's a different situation. Could you name a single more influential individual commitment to a program than Rayola in the time since he's done it? No. Like you might think Arch Manning because of how big of a recruit he was, but that didn't change Texas. Also, that was before Dylan Raola. Oh, it was? Arch Manning was it was in college a year before Delano was. You're right. So, no, it is since he did it, you know, going into the class of 2024, he is. He is, he is, the most influential one so i keep forgetting that arch manning was in college for two years that's

yes yeah so i mean that this is it's not simple like even if t j latif's awesome the next two weeks it's not simple michigan state come on down who's going to be coaching is jonathan smith still there or not like all of these things have to be answered first and that's why the next two weeks are going to be bonkers. And that's why there's no absolutely bonkers. Yeah. Thank you so much

for those great questions today. They were awesome. Ari, when next we talk, one of two things will have happened. We'll be reacting to a game on Saturday or Lane Kiffin will have made a decision. I was thinking about going to get a foot rub today,

but that puts me offline for about an hour, so I don't know if I can do it. Call Lane, or text him and just say, hey, Lane. whatever you're thinking keep it under your hat for a few minutes what's your guess on when this pops I have no idea

I will continue to say the same thing about Lane Kiffin every single time I have no idea it's like Florida fans ask me hey we get in Lane don't know LSU fans hey we're getting like don't know Ole Miss fans hey Stain Stain

don't know he's the ultimate wildcard don't know when don't know what but it's probably coming here in the next few days. So we will either talk to you after a game on Saturday or whenever that happens, whichever comes first.

Talk to you then.