Andy & Ari On3 - Is Lane Kiffin right about the SEC championship game? | How will the CFP committee rank the teams?

Episode Date: November 19, 2024

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Very high in your pantheon of things but go to Panini America net if you'd like to start collecting It's time to start the show. Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3% by Wendy's. Oh yeah, Lane Kiffin. He had something to say. It was very interesting. It's actually something that we've talked about quite a bit on this show, but Ari, I find it different when a sitting SEC head coach says, you know, it might not be the best thing to make the SEC championship game.

I mean, like, I understand there's only one argument against it, Andy, and is if you have to play an extra game, there's a higher likelihood that one of your best players gets hurt. and is if you have to play an extra game, there's a higher likelihood that one of your best players gets hurt. Like that's the only argument against it. Because let's be honest, would you rather play two games against teams that you're going to be favored by 15 to 20 against? Or would you rather play one game or one game against the team that you're either a dog or favored by one? Like it's just simple common sense to me. So he hasn't even played his clip yet. So I'm sorry for blowing it, but like play the clip, but it's true. Yeah, here's here's Lane at his press conference yesterday talking about the SEC Championship game. You know, it's it's it's changed the conference championship.

You know, could could have a big impact both ways for people. So I've talked to other coaches, so I'll just kind of give you the feeling from some other coaches that, you know, they don't want to be in it. You know, the risk to get a buy, sorry, the reward to get a buy versus the risk to get knocked out completely.

I mean, that's a pretty big, that's a really big risk just to get a buy. So I think it's ended up being a very unique situation of all, you know, postseason sports, the way that that system is set up there and how you could go to that and get knocked out. And if you don't go, you're in. and if you don't go, you're in. I'm not a big gambler, but that's the kind of one of them Vegas, you know, like poker table thing like that.

That's all in. And you're going all in in the best conference in football. So you got to play somebody great too. Very different than a lot of these other conferences. Usually when you go all in lane, you know, you're probably going to win just so you know. But yeah, I've been all in a few times in my life and it gets worked out sometimes and it's worked out pretty terribly at others. But like, I understand

exactly what he's saying, Andy. Like it makes perfect sense. And you know, if you're going to penalize the loser of the deal, then that's it. But the thing that I think is interesting too, is that doesn't the SEC Championship game also represent different things for different programs? I feel like Ole Miss winning the SEC would be a really, really big deal for them. Whereas Georgia and Alabama would rather probably have the easy path too. So I don't want to obviously making a run in the playoff

is the only thing that matters now to the big time programs that have invested a lot of money in their roster and their program. But like I wonder if you asked Ole Miss fans, would you rather win the SEC championship or make the playoff and get knocked out on the first round? I bet you they would take the SEC championship, right? They would if they knew that's the option, but they want to make the playoff and win the national title. Yeah, you and I have said

We've seen it up close like we saw it up close against George a couple weeks ago If they were playing this way, they can beat everybody in the playoff. It doesn't mean they will they were playing this way, they can beat everybody in the playoff. It doesn't mean they will, but they can. And I think they would rather win the national title than win the SEC title. But that's, that's not a sure thing. Obviously, the SEC championship game, it's a one, one or the other is going to win it. And he's only talking about getting in and out. Now, what

about if you play in the SEC championship game or the Big 10 championship game and your incentive is to lose? Because if you look at some of these projections, if you look at your bracketology, would you rather be the one seed or the five seed? That's going to be the situation. The problem is you might not be the five seed. We keep assuming the loser of the championship game is the five seed. Ari, we just, we did the scenario last week when we did disaster scenarios. It's entirely possible Texas A like let's say Texas A&M beats Texas this week. This is why my bracketology looks the way it looks where I don't have Texas or Texas A&M in and I have them

both as the first two out. If Texas A&M beats Texas makes the SEC Championship game, they would play Alabama probably. If they lose to Alabama, they'd have three losses. One of those losses would be to Notre Dame, which is going to get in over them. One of those losses would be to South Carolina. And one of those losses would be to Alabama. So I don't know that they'd make it in.

If Indiana's 11-1 and Penn State's 11-1, I don't know that they would make it in in that scenario. I know, but I'm focusing on the situations where you know it would happen like if you're Oregon for instance and you make the big 10 championship game as an undefeated team if you lose in the big 10 championship game you're going to be the five seed like that I think you can but if you're laying kiffin if you are laying kiffin right now you don't want to make the like you want to beat Florida you basically you want to beat the hell out of Florida beat the hell out of Mississippi State. Because you are probably, we don't know what the committee is going to say tonight, but I suspect

Ole Miss will be fairly comfortably in. Like they, maybe they're not hosting a game, but they're like the nine seed. And all they have to do is win two. Like they don't want to go play in the SEC Championship game and have the possibility of taking the third loss. Yeah, and we also don't know how the committee is going to react. The teams that are on the bubble who gets a plan in that game, right? Like I think that they will analyze people for losing. Um, and that's cause that's kind of just the way it's been forever. But.

You know, I do think that at the end of the year, if there was a 10 and two team and a 10 and three team and the loss occurs in the sec of the year, if there is a 10 and two team and a 10 and three team, and the loss occurs in the SEC or the big 10 or whatever championship game you want to reference, that I still probably would take the 10 and three team, like if it were up to me, like it's just that makes the most sense to me. But, you know, yeah, but I, and I think it depends on the team. I think Ole Miss 10 and three narrow loss to an Alabama or somebody like that in the SEC Championship game. You probably feel a little better about them

than say if it's if it's Texas A&M and they barely beat Texas and they lose, you know, in a in a bad way to Alabama. Like a lot of the game goes playing in the SEC Championship and playing in a one possession game against the SEC champion. I think is evidence that you are equipped to play in close games on the next stage too. Like part of it too. I know that the selection committee's entire job is to rank the teams and in terms of how good they think

everyone is and I know that we're not rewarding losses, but like the whole goal of the system too, is to create a atmosphere and environment in the playoff where there's not as many blowouts as we found in the four team field. Right. Um, oh, like to me, if you're, if you're going against a team that lost in one of the major championship games by a touchdown and the other options are teams that have been

blown out. I still think that that loss is more impressive even though you know I can't stand the quality loss thing. So we've got one more clip from Lane Kipp and we're going to play that in a second. We're also going to bring in our friend Ralph Russo from The Athletic who likes to argue with us as if we are concurrently doing the show usually three or four days after we've done a show. And I try to go, wait, wait, wait, what did I say three days ago? Yeah, I'm probably wrong on that, but that's okay. But before we get to Ralph and to more of Lane Kiffin,

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you may as well order two because somebody in the family is stealing one of them. All right. Let us welcome our friend Ralph Russo from the Athletic, formerly the Associated Press, formerly the keeper of the AP poll. Ralph, I always love that you got yelled at for what happened in the AP poll and you never actually voted in it. Yeah. I mean, Pete, I always loved that you got yelled at for what happened in the AP poll and you never actually voted in it. Yeah, I mean, Pete, you could still yell at me for it. I mean, I did it for 20 years. So if you're looking for somebody to vent to,

fine, come to me. But yes, never for a second did I ever vote in the AP poll. Now I'm at the athletic and I can be a little more critical of the AP poll, but I will always say I respect what that poll does and what those people do to uh who vote on it. So all good. Ralph, you should write a column about how the AP poll doesn't matter for the athletic. I would never do that because I would do want to hear my spiel. No, I don't even want to get into

this. It does matter. It does matter historically because at the end of the year Teams care who's number 19, right? Like at the final with the I used to get really mad at the the fans of those teams that would yell at me when I was a voter How could you rank my team number 21 and this team number 19 and i'm like To paraphrase ricky bobby If you hate first you're're last, who cares? And that really made them mad. So I realized that when I first started doing that, like 20 years ago, that that role for the AP of like the people, the teams at the bottom,

those fans would get even more riled up. And I'd be like, dude, like you're 24 or you're not like who cares? Like at this point you're really battling over 24 but not people take it seriously. They get that's why the people will always matter. I'm no longer an AP employee but I will always defend that poll. All right, let's hear Lane because Ralph I know you're listening in. We were talking about lanes initial couch.

So he got asked a really good followup about the SEC championship game as well and and expounded on that point a little bit It just to follow up on it You feel like it's inadvertently maybe diluted the meaning of not just the SEC but some of these other conference championships that we can Yeah, I mean, I don't think that's a secret. I think it it definitely has You know, so just is what it is. There's a cost and benefit to everything. There's great benefits to this playoff system and so many people being excited and fans and programs and more games. And then there's cost, too.

The conference championships don't mean as much. And it's not just do you potentially get knocked out by losing that. Do you go get more injuries? So you're going to go get more injuries, play another game to get a buy, but then the other people are having to buy while you're playing. So I think that's why I ain't going record saying it while a lot of coaches or some coaches I've talked to don't want to go to it. And I think that's the big question. And Ralph, I'll direct you first, because I think with the SEC in the Big Ten,

but particularly the SEC this year, the push pull is, yeah, you might get a buy, you might win an SEC championship. But if you are the team that loses that game, you are probably in worse position than your fairly similarly situated other SEC teams that made the playoff that didn't have to play in that game. Yeah, so I disagree with Lane on the idea that you might get knocked out.

Now we may see that eventually, and I might be proven wrong, but if I look at the SEC landscape in particular, and the Big Ten landscape, because that's the other conference, frankly at this point, in the ACC and the Big 12, it's winning in, and you're out probably.

I mean, at this point, we're probably not talking at largest for those. But I don't see a scenario where, and again, maybe this is me being overly optimistic about what's gonna happen in the SEC in the Big Ten. Certainly in the Big Ten, I think whoever gets the Big Ten Championship game is going to be in, right? Whatever Big Ten Championship game participants,

those two teams are going to get in. In the SEC, I understand it being a little less clear because you have all these two lost teams, but I think that they won't be punished for playing and losing a big game. Andy, you mentioned A&M as the one that maybe I would be most worried about. Okay, sure, maybe, but I do think that like,

I do think that the SEC participants in the SEC Championship game are gonna get in. Lane is right, it's not as meaningful as it used to be, and he's right in terms of like, hey, it's give and take, right? We have this great new system, but you know, that other thing isn't quite as meaningful. I'm not sold on the idea that you have to be worried

about getting knocked out. I will say one also, I thought his way of describing it was awesome. That you're playing for a buy while everybody else has a buy. So how much of an advantage is it? That's an interesting, I hadn't really thought of it that way,

but that's a really good point. Well, the difference there is that you're playing in a game that may or may not end your season, and they're going to be playing in an extra game that could. So I think that Texas A&M is the number one focus point here too, because I think you're wrong about that, Ralph. I think if A&M is 10- 2 and loses in the SEC championship game, they're not going to get in at the expense of a Tennessee or something. There's going to be a team out there that beat Alabama and Georgia

that only has two losses. I hope you're right. I hope that that's the way it goes. But I actually think there's a possibility, and I don't know if this is insane, but Andy, you tell me, Ralph, you tell me that A&M beats Texas, Texas finishes 10 and two on the season, A&M goes to the SEC Championship game, loses the SEC Championship game,

and they still take Texas over them. Isn't that within the realm of possibility, or do they not have enough quality wins? I don't think that is, but I'll throw one at you that probably is equally infuriating for people, not for A&M fans, obviously, but Texas beats Texas A&M, loses badly in the SEC Championship game,

gets trapped in the who have you beaten game at 11 and two and doesn't make it. I don't think that would happen, but I do worry that that might, because like if you're gonna put 11 and two Texas against, let's say Texas lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game and it was a fairly big margin. Texas or Tennessee?

Like 11 and two Texas or 10 and two Tennessee? Who you taking? Well, I think I would take Tennessee in that situation because I think adding a blowout into the mix. Texas getting screwed by losing the championship game. Well, I know, but I think that also to being blown out in the only two games that you played against teams that are really, really good in terms of like,

how we view as the elite would be a bad look. And like, that's the interesting curve ball that you add in there. It's like, there's a difference between losing a close competitive game against a really good team in the SEC championship and getting your ass kicked. Like if you get your ass kicked, I think that changes the calculus of the brain.

You know what I'm saying? 23 to 15, the same margin as the Georgia game. Yeah, so again, I feel like there's less of a chance of this that I think once you- I do too, but I feel like there's less of a chance of this that I think- I do too, but I'm saying it's possible. But here's my other, it's definitely possible. And listen, we're all gonna be sort of surprised by how this thing plays out because we've never seen it play out before.

So to a certain degree, we're all just like taking morsels of information and extrapolating and trying to come up with conclusions when we've never seen this happen before. What I take issue with a lot, and this is a slightly broader discussion, let me just fan it out a little bit, is I think we get way too bogged down on two or three games that these teams play.

Like I really get like, well, they, you know, what's their good loss and what's their bad win and what's their good win? Like the totality of a schedule, man, you know, what's their good loss and what's their bad win and what's their good win? Like, like the totality of a schedule, man, the totality of how you play. Like, I understand, and I'm with you, I've been texting you guys this, this premise. I think Texas and Texas A&M might be an elimination game. I think the loser of that game could very well be out. But I also see Texas, despite the fact that its schedule hasn't been as good, as a really good team that is handling

its business at a high level. I really try to emphasize a little bit more of who you play, excuse me, how you play as opposed to being so upset. Okay Ralph, Texas went to Arkansas and won 20 to 10. Ole Miss went to Arkansas two weeks earlier and won 63 to 31. Yeah, but again- Who handled business better there? But again, you're taking one game against one game. Listen- But we can take other games too.

But I think I'm with Ralph on this, Andy. Like Texas has has won their games pretty pretty easily this year. Like for the most part, like I listen, I know the band to be a game and but they need to be to Alabama. So I know sometimes people hate the math nerd stuff, but like if you look at all the power, the SP plus FBI, FBI, all those things like I like to look at them all like Texas is like a top five team the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the-

the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the-

the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- the- Indiana's rankings in a lot of those places is about the same as Tennessee. Like again, like how they have played more than just who they have played counts for them. The fact that they have torn up everybody on their schedule is meaningful. And I say that for any team, not just Indiana. So again, my big issue with a lot of this resume argument is you end up sort of trying to boil it down to one or two games what I'm saying like all these games count how did you play in all of your games

I think that's fair I think it's that's perfectly fair and it's interesting because that gets into the argument about Penn State in Indiana where like like, if you look at Penn State strength of schedule, and it's not, everybody's like, oh, ESPN just cooks it with the FBI. You can look at the Sagarin, you can look at the ones that ESPN doesn't make. They're all relatively the same. Like Penn State strength of schedule is in the low thirties,

wherever you look. Indiana's right now is about a hundred. Now it's gonna go up when they play Ohio State, but it's not going to go up into the low 30s. So you're not going to be comparing apples and apples in that scenario either. So that's the part. I think you're right about that. And I don't think people appreciate the difficulty of winning against teams that are okay to pretty good in power conferences. Here's what I'll say, and Ari, feel free to jump in on this because I know because sometimes I get on you Ari because teams are either great or terrible, right? And I know- Not anymore. Well, but like I understand that often you don't mean that seriously, but often you describe them. I think a lot of college football fans are like, they're either there's five good teams in the rest of the country stinks.

And my and let me jump in just before you finish that point, though. I want to just say, I just want to clarify. I make that mistake because you're right, you do get on me if I say someone stinks when they're 10 and 2, that's not a fair thing to say. But when I've done that in the past, it's in the context of national championship discussion. Like you stink in comparison to the teams that we are discussing in the national title race, not you stink overall, which I've probably done a poor job of, but I just want to say now, you haven't really heard me say that that much because there's not it's different now. But go ahead. And that's a fair and that's fair. And I'm glad you've sort

of corrected your behavior. Working on it one step at a time, but the Indiana the Indiana Penn State thing is really a great a great example. Like people well, they played the same schedule. No, they didn't. Like there's a massive difference between like West Virginia and they didn't. There's a massive difference between West Virginia and FIU. There's a massive difference between playing Illinois and playing, I'm gonna look on your schedule here, Maryland. There's a pretty, and Michigan State has been

the second or third worst team in the Big Ten. Those are big, big differences. And I'll move it to the sec for that matter. Like again, like, uh, you know, I look at like the totality of your schedule and winning well every week and winning impressively every week. And I just think that we lose that in these discussions. We get so hyper-focused on one or two games. We totally lose that in these discussions.

And, um, and yeah, and again, I got my math nerd. I like to look at the, the power ratings and totally lose that in these discussions. And yeah, and again, I got my math nerd. I like to look at the power ratings and I think that those are meaningful. So when I see Indiana in the top 10, like I'm cool with Indiana being in the top 10 despite its like light schedule. Ralph, getting back to what Lane said, and I'll bring the big 10 into this too, because while it doesn't feel like this is going to happen in the big 10 this year, it's entirely possible it could happen next year year or maybe some weird stuff happens these last two weeks and it does Become a situation where where this is possible, but if either of their losers gets knocked out Either their championship game losers gets knocked out. Do you think Greg Sankey and Tony Petiti?

Push to change the system? Because I mean, the 14 team thing got leaked before this season even started. And it seems clear to me that the whole point of you expand to 14, it is to protect the Big 10 and SEC Championship games as commercial products. Yeah. Because there's two issues here. Either both the teams that make the game are getting in and that makes the game boring because no one cares who wins

because it's not a win-in-your-end scenario or it's a win-in-your-end scenario, which is really interesting, but both of those leagues feel like we're so much better than everybody else. Yeah, the participants of our title games you get it. I think at this point, even the fact that we're discussing this means that Sankey and Petit are gonna push that 14 team through for 2026. Like that's going to happen because they cannot stomach

the idea of this. Yeah, so what my answer was gonna be, I think it doesn't matter what happens. I think they've already seen the scenarios play out and the chatter about it and want to prevent it. It does get interesting though. If you start thinking about the conversation around four automatic bids for each conference,

which very well could be coming to at some point when you expand it to 14, and then you give them more than one or two, more than one automatic place. Like, what does that mean in a world where, for your conference championship game, if you already know that those four, that your top four in your standings are locked in.

And I've heard some interesting discussion about conference tournaments, not in the traditional sense, because you can't add games, but how are you sort of like, you know, creating different levels of, different levels of like, of meaning in these games and maybe creating final regular season games that look a little different.

So yeah, it's, I already think you're seeing the unintended consequences of the playoff. A lot of it has been good. It's worked out really well. We have a lot of interest around the country, but I do see in these bigger in the in the big two all of a sudden there. They're realizing wait a second. Have we devalued some of our own in season product? Well before we get to more discussion about something that's coming on TV Tuesday night,

which is the CFP ranking reveal at 7 p.m. Eastern time, which hopefully you'll be watching with the sound down and me and Ari turned up because we will be going live at the same time. Let's talk prize picks because there's matching on Tuesday night. That's right. Download prize picks,

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Will it be less? Who knows? But if you have a strong opinion, you may want to get that square on prize picks. So download the app, use the code staples, play $5 and get $50 instantly. Gentlemen, while we've got Ralph, I think it is very valuable to try to predict

what we think this committee ranking will look like because bear in mind and I Ralph I know you've been amused by all my awareness gap tweets whenever someone yells at me about my bracket and Say how can you put this team here? That's not how the selection process works, and I'm like no no no it does I had somebody this morning say Andy's an idiot Boise State's gonna be number five because the fifth highest ranked conference champ gets the number five seed, which is not true. Uh, but the committee is not doing it with an eye toward the bracket.

They are just trying to put the teams in order. So where do we think I'll start with this one? Because this is the, this is the conversation that got us going Sunday when you were listening to our Saturday night show and you were texting me and Ari, where do we think Georgia moves? Because they knocked Georgia out after the loss to Ole Miss. They put Georgia at 12, which made them the first team out.

Where do they move up to? The precedent was set last week that they will make a big move, right? Because they moved Georgia from 3 to 12 last week after it lost to Ole Miss. So I don't see any reason why you couldn't do 12 to 6. You know, do you still leave them behind an undefeated Indiana? A side note, hey man, for all the people

who are caping up for the SEC, SEC is gonna be okay. Like don't worry, the poor SEC will be okay. I've seen so many people rush to the honor of the SEC over the last week or so, gonna be fine guys. Don't worry about the SEC, gonna be fine. I think things will happen with the rankings in Indiana in the next couple of weeks that will sort it out. Let's put it that way.

I've been dying to talk about this scenario in my head as we were talking about the conference championship games and the consequences of losing it. And I am with you 100%, Ralph, if Ohio State and Oregon play in the big 10 championship game, even if Oregon wins, I think Ohio State would be in with a win over Penn State. But doesn't that put Penn State and Indiana in a precarious situation? Because then you're wondering whether or not, like, so like the loser of the big 10 championship game, depending on what the rankings look like tonight, could have a secondary impact on teams that may find themselves on the bubble at the end of the year.

Oh, I'm saying because Ohio State would have two losses and that would be bad luck to them? Their loss would look worse. You would have to find a way, but no, I'm not done yet. I'm not done. Okay. In Ohio State as a two-loss team, you'd still have to find a spot for them, right? And then all of a sudden you might not have four big 10 teams in the field at that point. Because if you think that like if Ohio State and Oregon play that they're guaranteed to have four teams in the field. Cause like you have to acknowledge that Indiana is going

to be in a head-to-head debate if they lose to Ohio State with somebody in the SEC. And the rankings tonight are going to, you just said it's going to work out for the SEC. Well, who's it going to be at the expense of is what I'm trying to get to. No, you're right. So when I say workout for the SEC, I mean, like, like, don't the the the poor SEC might not get five teams. Oh, my God, like I might, I might, my, my, my heart, my heart, the SEC might not get five teams, we should all like, you know, storm the capital. Like, like,

honestly, like, it'll be fine for the SEC. But you are right. So I think you're I agree with your overall point. I think I'm a little off on the secondary part of that. I think Indiana is in trouble if it loses this weekend. Don't lose. First of all, don't lose. Secondly, definitely don't lose by getting embarrassed. I think we are heading towards Indiana against an SEC team. Do we want four SEC teams or do we want five, excuse me, do we have five SEC teams or four Big Ten teams? I think if Ohio State loses this weekend, it could be in a little precarious position too.

Though again, going back to sort of the power rankings and things like that, Ohio State probably, being Ohio State gets a little benefit of the doubt too, and probably works its way in. What I don't think, and correct me if I'm wrong Ari, because I think this is what you're alluding to. Ohio State being 10 and two, I don't think matters to Penn State's resume

or Indiana's resume. Ohio State having lost twice to Oregon is still a top six or 17. Like that's still a really good team. I don't think the committee then goes, well, that loss to Ohio State is now a worse loss because Ohio State isn't as good. Like losing twice to Oregon, I don't think dings the loss because Ohio State isn't as good. Like losing twice to Oregon,

I don't think dings the status of Ohio State enough for it to have ancillary issues trickling in. I just mean from the standpoint that if Ohio State beats Oregon, then you're basically have a better case for why the Big Ten should have four. It's not necessarily Ohio State digging the resume directly, but in that debate between whether we should have four. It's not necessarily Ohio State dinging the resume directly, but in that debate between whether we should have five sec teams or four big 10 teams, if Ohio state loses again, then you have a two lost team that their best bullet point resume on the other

two is losing to Ohio state closely. Like that to me is, Hmm. It makes it. And also doesn't Penn state really have to root for Indiana or Ohio State this weekend? Like Penn State does not want Indiana to win this game. Agreed. I would tend to agree. I would tend to agree.

It's better for yeah. Yeah. I would tend to agree with that. Penn State would might be on the. So right now Penn State because of the benefit of their strength of schedule, has found themselves out of the crossfire of the debate. Like Indiana has the fourth Big 10 team is the one that's going to find itself in the debate. If Indiana beats Ohio State, I think Penn State could be

out of the playoff. Like I think I think it's that dire like Penn State, because who are you going to take Penn State or Tennessee at the end of the playoff. Like I think it's that dire, like Penn State. Cause who are you going to take? Penn State or Tennessee at the end of the year? Um, yeah, probably that's probably a coin toss to a certain degree. And I would probably take Penn State. But again, like, so by the way, I've been trying to circle, like where the hotspots are this weekend. Penn State be careful against Minnesota.

Be careful, be, be, be very careful against Minnesota. Be careful. Be, be, be very careful against Minnesota. But yeah, and I understand what you're saying there, like Penn State, Tennessee, like that's the argument I think we're heading towards. We're heading towards Big Ten SEC who gets that last spot and whether it's Indiana, like I'm assuming Indiana, which is probably a bad assumption to ever doubt Coach Siggs. Sorry, Coach Siggs and Kers Rockett Rockett and company. Like we're assuming that Indiana, because there are 14 or 12 or 13 point underdog might lose.

But yes, I could see a scenario where Ohio State loses this game. Indiana then gets the big jump. Ohio State's still on the fringe, but in because they'd beaten Penn state. And that puts Penn state in the hot seat as far as like who gets that last spot. If Ohio state loses to Indiana, there's no rational way that you could, you could rank Penn state ahead of Ohio state. So like that, that's the problem. So, so does even if Penn state goes out and beats on Minnesota, uh, by 30 this

weekend, if Ohio state loses at home to Indiana by one, Indiana probably jumps up to two behind Oregon. Ohio State would drop somewhere to be six or seven. Are you going to put Penn State there at four? But like it doesn't make any sense. They don't necessarily need to be four. But I'm also saying that if Penn State takes care of business the rest of the way and again has beaten enough pretty good teams at 11 and one. Yes, I think they get into a debate with Tennessee or whoever that fifth SEC school is. But I also

think that they have enough in their schedule for it to be okay. So again, I think you're kind of like hooked on Ohio State, Penn State, and the loser of that comparison is out. And I think that Penn State will have enough helium in their overall resume that at 11 and 1, it'll be okay. But not totally safe. I want both of you, Ralph and Ari, I want you to look deep into your souls. I'm not trying to prejudice you. I want an honest opinion when I ask you this. I want you to look deep into your souls. I'm not trying to prejudice you. I want an honest opinion when I ask you this. I want you to look deep into your souls

and I want you to tell me if Tennessee played Penn State, if Ole Miss played Penn State, who do you think would win? So I'm very cool with saying I think Ole Miss would be Penn State. Ole Miss is easy. Yeah, Ole Miss would be Penn State. I think Ole Miss might win this whole thing. So that's like.

Okay, Tennessee. I think Penn State and Tennessee are the same. The same. They're the same team. I think they're the same team. I think it's 17, 16 one of one makes a kick and one doesn't and I yeah, I think they're around the same team. So Tennessee and Penn State like when you break it down both have elite pass

rushers. Yeah. They both have a quarterback that was a five star one of the most frustrating offenses. Yeah, incredibly frustrating offense have been efficient in beating teams that they are better than for the most part now the one thing that is interesting when you put it that way is that Penn

State does not have the black mark on its resume that Tennessee's does. That's what Tennessee has a quality win, so those two things cancel out right? Like if you have a quality win in a bad loss or you have no bad losses and no quality wins aren't those the same thing? So I would tend to think, yes, you beat Alabama. That's a great win, but you know, losing Arkansas is not tremendous and yeah.

So I think it cancels out a little bit. And again, it also goes back to this idea of I want to know about how you played your entire schedule, not just one or two games on your schedule. I think that a Tennessee Penn State comparison probably goes to Penn State. But again, I'm with you in the idea that my basic premise is SEC Big Ten. That's where the arguments going to be in a couple of weeks.

We're going to be that last spot is going to come down to an SEC team and a Big Ten team. I'm pretty sure. And if it's Indiana with a 10-point loss to Ohio state, they're going to get there. They're out. Just so you know, I want everyone to know that. I think everybody, yeah, everybody thinks that 11 and one Indiana is a hundred percent in. I've been telling you for a fricking month. It's not true. I'm just telling you. Ari, you and I are totally aligned on that one. And I think it would be awful, by the way. It would be, yeah.

This playoff expanded to get teams like Indiana in. I don't need the fifth best SEC team. I want Indiana. That's what they sold you, Rapp. This is not to get teams like Indiana. This is to get teams like Tennessee in. No, because Indiana's in the Big Ten. This is, we're not talking about Boise's here.

We're not talking about Tulane's here. We're talking about a great story in the Big Ten. Like, give me Indiana over the fifth best SEC team. Like, I don't need five SEC teams. The playoff expanded to get the biggest brands and the sexiest fan bases into the playoff. But you can give me one spot for Indiana, right? You can give me one spot for the best story

in college football. I think Indiana has been incredible. And I actually think Indiana would be able to play a four quarter game with Tennessee. I think they're gonna play a four quarter game with Ohio State. Like this isn't a question, but I promise, if it comes down to it at the end, and it's between an SEC team that has beaten Alabama or an Indiana team that has only lost to Ohio State, it has no quality wins, they will not win that debate. We know what the committee how the committee operates. And I know that we're under the assumption that, oh, well, we've never seen them do this before. So we don't know what's going to, we've seen them do it for 10 years and they're going to do it the same exact way.

There's more teams to fill out, but it's the same thing. But don't, don't continue with the sales pitch of we expanded the playoff for continuity so we all can sit around a campfire and sing kumbaya. We did it because we want Georgia and Alabama and Tennessee and Ole Miss to have second and third chances. This is what we did it for. We didn't do it for the little guy. We did it for the big guy.

And Indiana plays in a big guy conference, but we're not, this is not, let's hold Indiana's hand and welcome into the party here. They have to win their way and they've got to knock the fucking door down. I'm gonna laugh so hard if Indiana beats Ohio State. No, but I'm just saying like, Indiana has to knock the door down.

No one's doing Indiana any favors. I'm telling you. You know how it's gonna go. You're just feeding Coach Siggs right now. Coach SIGs like it. I'm not saying anything negative about Indiana, but I'm not saying anything negative about Indiana. Have you seen Ghostbusters 2, Ari? Who would see Ghostbusters 2? I don't know. I've never saw Ghostbusters 2.

Ghostbusters 2 is awesome. Not as good as one, but awesome. And it has this ooze. It has this ooze that lives under the sewers and feeds off the city's negative energy. And like when you play it Jackie Wilson higher and higher, it gets happy. Like Coach Siggs is just sitting here, like he's in his office right now, and he's feeling it all come into his body. He's like, what is this? And it's all of our negative energy, all of us saying, they're going to get killed by Ohio State. And he's going to unleash it on the block guys on Saturday. One, I never said they're going to get killed by Ohio State. Two, I don't think I ever said anything negative about Indiana. It's just you, it's the chat. No, I know. But like,

and I know that there's been a lot of assumptions that Indiana is going to lose. And honestly speaking, I was talking to a buddy of mine who does the numbers and like the numbers look pretty good for, for taking Indiana. I think I wish I could change my pick from Monday. Um, I think it's going to be a game, but the point is they are not going to be doing like, if there is a debate to be had, the system is not doing it a favor. That's all I'm saying. And that we, we came into we came into the year thinking,

everybody has a chance now and everybody gets to do this. Like if Indiana goes 11 and one, it does not get in. Then that was all bull crap, right? Like that was all, that's a lie. All it is to give like Georgia and Alabama and Ohio state and all these other teams that haven't had remarkable years, another chance to get in because they wouldn't have been good enough last year.

And guess what? If this is the four team field, maybe Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia would be out. Wouldn't that be great? Hmm. Would it? Well, I don't, I'm not going down that road with it. But I will say, so essentially, Ari, you and I agree. When I say, when I say this system expanded, like that's my own. I want this, to me, the system expanded to reward these teams that have these magical seasons out of nowhere and you're not just

shipping them off to a bowl game to face another opponent, to face a more marquee opponent that's sitting out half their team like Missouri did last year with Ohio State and celebrate Missouri because it beat a third of Ohio State's team in a bowl game. So that's why I totally agree with you. You listen, when the athletic hired me to replace you Ari, I wrote a column about a month ago that said Indiana is the most interesting team in the most interesting contender. And part of the reason why is they're not a blue blood. Are they going to suffer the, Hey, like you're Indiana, we don't trust you measurement

when it comes to being compared to Tennessee or being compared to Alabama. I am totally on board with that. I just think it sucks. Like I agree with what you're saying that I could see Indiana getting squeezed out. Listen, if Indiana gets rolled this weekend, I'll come off that stance. If, if Indiana gets rolled this weekend,

I'll come off that stance. If they lose by 24, all right, you know what? It's a nice story. We probably can't squeeze them in there. But if they play competitively this weekend and get left out at 11 and one, because another team's got a bigger brand and we have to get five SEs.

I'm with you, we agree. We're 100% on the same page. We're totally on on the same page. We're saying the same thing. My point is, what's the sense of going to 12 if we're gonna just jam another SEC team? I'm cool with four, but the fifth best SEC team? Are you kidding me?

Don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't. We really need the fifth best SEC team in this thing. Cut his mic. I really have another. What's the sense of expanding to 12 if we're going to add another SEC team is the reason why I hated it, Ralph. Yeah. That's the whole reason I wasn't on board. All of this, all of this is the reason why I love it.

As DayDay says in the chat, SEC and Big Ten bias, because that's all we're talking about here. Let us transition before we let Ralph go get to work. Because I know Ralph actually has a job to do. You want to join the JD show? Yeah, we are doing the hard count after this at 11 a.m. Eastern. So if you just want to stay tuned. But all right, here's my question.

So BYU lost and they were number six in the committee rankings You are you lost? How far do they fall? Where do they land relative to Colorado and Arizona State which are the other two teams that could potentially make the big 12 championship? also tangentially Where are those in relation to Boise State? Because that matters a lot.

Yeah, I figured you were gonna ask this. So I have a theory that Boise State is frozen. They are gonna be about where they're gonna be, and we're gonna move teams around them. And at some point we will have an ACC champion, and we'll have a Big 12 champion and those teams will be ahead of Boise. Boise will be, maybe Boise moves up a spot,

maybe they move back a spot, but they're kind of frozen in that 13 to 11 area. And we might see Boise ahead of the Big 12 teams this week. I think it's possible you could see Boise ahead of the Big 12 teams this week. I think it's possible you could see Boise ahead of the big 12 teams this week but if you look at Boise playing oh Gosh who they have on their schedule down the stretch here I mean they just they played you and I'll be there there's not a ton of like heavyweights in the in the Mountain West

It's very easy to justify Well, the winner of the board the BYU Arizona State game is going to jump Boise next week. So I understand a lot of people are going to see that ranking tonight and maybe Boise's ahead and go, whoa, whoa, whoa, they're going to be a top four seed. But if you kind of look down the road here, there's enough oomph on those Big 12 schedules to get it worked out where Boise ends up behind the big 12 champion in the end. That's correct. That's what's happening.

Okay. Yeah. Thanks. Uh, and they're playing Wyoming and Oregon state at the end of the year. The thing that I can't wait to see is terrible. Yeah. Who are both terrible if they play UNLV and Boise and UNLV wins that game. What, what we do.

Cause I think that UNLV is a really good football team and has a has the ability if they put a good game together to win that football game. Yeah unfortunately I think Colorado State might squeeze them out but Colorado State plays Fresno State this weekend I could see them drop in there and boy like I gotta tell you something a Tulane UNLV argument would be very interesting. Yeah Tulane's the one we haven't talked about enough. But Tulane could beat army in the in the American Championship game to lanes losses are to K state and Oklahoma. But competitive games to write the Oklahoma loss not looking so

great now. But it it was it would be a really interesting argument if. You and LV were to beat Boise State and win the Mountain West or Colorado State. That would be an interesting argument, but I think Boise State's OK. As long as army doesn't win out. Your army wins out.

It's a different story. Yeah, then yeah, yeah. If army beats Notre Dame this weekend and I will be at Yankee Stadium in an open, but that's reason the spot Yeah, you're going I'm sorry. You're going to the game. Yeah Well, you know, it's in my backyard and it turned out to be a pretty big game I that game should be broadcast in black and white right the last time army and Notre Dame played and they were both ranked It was like 1952 or something like that. Yeah, by the way army mantles rookie arms

Army revealed his uniforms for the Army Navy game yesterday. They are badass. 101st Airborne Tribute. If you haven't seen the video, you'll see it because it'll get tweeted in your timeline. Army guys, just so you know, I watched this thing on Sunday called Band of Brothers on HBO. I'm sure you watched this.

Like it's just a TV series. It's a TV series. The one that came out 15 years ago. You're talking about this as if like, have you ever heard of this thing? Hey guys, have you ever heard of this? It's a little mob show called The Sopranos. That's why I literally said I'm sure you guys have seen it already. But I just got around to seeing it for the first time.

And I got to tell you, I wouldn't have lasted four minutes in basic training. Like these guys are so bad-ass. Like there are no men like that anymore. Like including me, like they're like. No, there are, but especially not you. Yeah. Maybe there are men like that. Definitely including me. Like, they're, like... No, there are, but especially not you. Yeah, yeah. Maybe there are men like that.

Definitely not me. But, holy crap. I have a theory that human beings can adapt to their situation and when forced into uncomfortable situations, will, you know, the sort of instincts move up. But that's, I don't want to get, that's a story for another time. Do you think people in this generation that would sign up to go to World War II? I mean there was a lot of them that are doing it now that are signing up for the military with the

fact that they could get sent there so yes I do think the fact that we have a military I think proves that yes that that that exists. Sorry. I'm just saying like, like, yeah, okay. You're right. I mean, I was saying like- Just because we're soft doesn't mean everybody's soft. I was just watching this. I totally get you. I was just watching this show, Ralph.

And like I, my wife does this thing where when she comes from home from out of town, she puts the suitcase in the middle of the floor without unpacking it. And then we go to bed. And then I wake up in the middle of the floor without unpacking it. And then we go to bed. And then I wake up in the middle of the night to go pee because I have an overactive bladder. And I stub my toe on this suitcase every time. Did you cry? And I was like, at the like this happened last night. And I just like was like so upset. And I'm like, thought about the show. And I'm like, these guys were on U-boats on Normandy beach,

listening to the bullets, hitting the front of the ship, knowing that that door is gonna drop. And I can't even manage to not lose myself in stubbing my toe on a plastic suitcase. Andy, did you think this episode was gonna devolve into Ari discovers D-Day? Ralph, I have a tweet from Ari queued up and I was going to wait till we said goodbye to you because I do know you have to work but I don't care about your schedule or anything else. I kind

of want you to be here for this because this ties into this conversation. Obviously Ari's not cut out for D-Day. I don't think Ari was cut out for the Battle of the Bulge or any of those either. God forbid the trench warfare or more one, not a chance. Producer River, do you have the tweets? This is Ari from Monday morning. I hit an all-time low last night. My wife is out of town and my daughter was sleeping over at my mother-in-law's. So I got to lay in bed and watch the NFL games all day and night. I Uber eats a Slurpee to my house. Judge me. Then five hours

later, I got another one. I spent $18 having 7-11 Blue Raspberry Slurpees sent to my house. The European mind cannot fathom that. That's royalty stuff. Ari. And it was raining. So I put that poor guy through a blender. And I think it was the same dude. So I would love to know. I would love to know. So here's the backstory. I know where the 7-Eleven is near your house, by the way.

I jog. Well, I jog to the quick trip near your house. Andy jog to it. Okay, we get it, dude. The 7-Eleven is across the street. So I know where this guy came from. So every single day or every Sunday in the fall of my life in my entire twenties,

covering college football on Saturday, if it was a home game, I would go home at late at night after working, you guys know how Saturdays are. And my unwind time would be to open the windows, light a candle, put the NFL games on, have the breeze from the fall coming in and just lay there, get a Domino's delivered, whatever. You know how it goes.

I want someone who made it through Normandy to hear this. This is what you fought for. They fought for that, yeah. But so anyway, then I met my beautiful wife when I was 30 or 29 and it all changed because this isn't a person who sits at home ever. We have been together for five years. Uber eats a Slurpee.

We've been together for five years and we've never laid in bed from morning till night. Like we've never sat at home all day together. There's always an activity or a brunch or there's her social calendar. I mean, I don't even know how the woman does it. So for the first time in five years, I got to be home alone on a Sunday after a long day of work on a beautiful fall day. And it was my only time in five years

where I could lay there and do nothing. And I was like, you know what? I'm gonna do whatever I want today. I'm going to do whatever I want today. I'm going to eat whatever I want. I'm going to lay wherever I want. I'm going to spend how much money I want to spend. This is like my day. So I ordered Domino's around noon, like I like I as a custom to got the brick, you know what the brick is, if you know, you know, and then I watched the games after

we were done doing our videos. And then, you know, you know. And then I watched the games after we were done doing our videos. And then, you know, I've been on this weight loss journey. So I haven't been eating very many great satisfying meals. And I have certainly not been drinking anything. I know two slurpees. And I certainly the one thing and the reason why I got so fat to begin with was a complete and utter addiction to regular soda because I think it's the most delicious thing in the world. Um, so I haven't had sugar drinks in almost a year. Like I just don't drink regular soda anymore. I was like, you know what? I'm a King.

I'm in my castle. I got the games on. We got, we got bets all over the place. We got fantasy going and I'm like, you know what? I'm just going to treat myself today. Like I earned it today. And it was amazing. It was amazing.

And then later on, when the Bengals game started, I was like, I wish I had another Slurpee. So I ran it back. You know what? And it's like, I know I could have gone to the store and I know I could have put my pants on and gone downstairs, gotten in the car and driven five minutes and gotten one.

I know that. But it was part of the spirit of the day where everything was gonna be done on my terms. And that's kinda how I got this. Like it's gonna be on my terms today. Is that okay? I'm listening. So it's like, I got it on my.

So we're using military comparisons here. Like that's the Rubicon for me. Getting someone to bring a Slurpee, one Slurpee, or a pint of ice cream, or something like that to my house. Like I get that that's their job, they've chosen that gig. I still feel like I'm wasting their time. I tipped them. I mean, I was nice to them.

Like I wasn't like, I wasn't just like, bring me a Slurpee peasant. The cost alone would kill me. Like the idea of paying $9 for a Slurpee is just- I had like $500 on like nine NFL games at the time. I wasn't worried about the 18 bucks. I don't care. I don't care if you have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos money,

I'm not spending $9 for a Slurpee. Like that's bananas. You're not paying $9 for a Slurpee, you're paying $9 for a Slurpee. You're paying $9 for a Slurpee in the convenience of not having to go get it. You're paying $2 for a Slurpee and $7 for someone to bring you a Slurpee. Yeah.

And God bless America that that's a thing you can do. It's amazing. Here's the thing though, Ari. I'm not doing it. I can tell that you're like still a relatively new father and a relatively new husband because you're still a relatively new father and a relatively new husband, because you're right. All we want is to be left alone. Right? It's just one day.

On Father's Day and my birthday, my wife, because I have been a father and a husband for a while. Andy and I have both been fathers and husbands for a while. And generally speaking, when my daughter comes to me and says, what do you want for Father's Day? I say, kind of to be left alone. And this actually happened this past Father's Day. My wife and it was either Father's Day or my birthday. My wife and daughter went to a play. They had tickets to a play. Oh, no, dad, we didn't realize it was Father's Day

and we didn't get you a ticket. Is that OK? And how much? You've given me the best gift of all. And how much I had just be like, sort of like, oh, it's fine, really. You have to thread the needle because you can't tell your wife and kids that the-

You guys have a good time, I'm so happy for you that I will get to sit at home and watch baseball or the, it might've been like, you know. No, Ari, you can't tell your wife that. I think it was the end of. No Ari you can't tell your wife that. I think I can't tell my wife that all I want for Father's Day is for her to be away from me. Like I just I would never say that. You can't tell her that. I've been 23 years.

I can tell her that. Yeah. She won't understand. Yeah eventually you'll get there but right now no no what will make me happy is you being happy. you'll get there. But right now, no, no, what will make me happy is you being happy. So here, go here, just go treat yourself to a nice day with, uh, Livy, Livy is your, is your daughter. Yeah, go treat yourself to a nice day, honey. I will, it will be okay. I have some things around the house I want to get to, right? I have some chores that I need to catch up on. So some to-do

projects, some honey-doos around the house. My wife is great though because during the off season, I get me time. I go play poker a lot when we're in the off season and Saturday and Sunday. Like I drive up to Oklahoma, which is about an hour north, and I will sit in a poker room for eight hours and like that's my happy place. So I get that, but in the season, like the ability to just lay there for 10 hours, it was like a solar eclipse. It's like, you rarely see it, but when you do, you gotta take advantage of it.

And that's, I was just in the zone. I'm with you on what you did in spirit. I just think again, like the $18 worth of Slurpees and picturing you lying on your bed. No shirt. No shirt, chest down. Tarp off, yeah. Yeah, deer guy.

Was there a candle light? Deer guy, I had the best day today. I had two Slurpees. I did light a candle. I'm a candle guy, by the way. I think it sets the ambiance. There's nothing nicer than a candle blowing when the leaves are changing

and you've got the, and I opened the door to the deck on our house. You know, it also to like, isn't that a very manly Sunday? Like honestly, to gamble on the NFL order pizza, get a Slurpee, lay there. I was like, that was like me. That was the day. So yeah, thank you for your day. I applaud the spirit of the day. Again, the Slur you for that. I applaud your day. I applaud the spirit of the day. Again, the Slurpees.

I'm just not going that far. Yeah, sorry. That's just a bridge too far. The 101st Airborne didn't say nuts to the German general in the Battle of the Bulge. So I could pay someone $7 to bring me a Slurpee. Actually they did. And I'm glad they did, and I'm glad they did,

but I'm not doing it. God bless America. Shane in the chat says, Aree already has a pre-order ticket for the new Wicked movie. First of all, Shane, like I've seen Wicked on Broadway. It's fabulous. It's awesome, yes. It's amazing.

Second of all, that's actually my Sunday, not going to see Wicked, because Aree and I have to do some videos. My wife and daughter are going to see Wicked. I'm going to do my videos with Ari. And then me and my son are going to watch seven hours of commercial free football. That is a Sunday. Gentlemen, Ralph, I know you got to work. This has been amazing. Hey, good. You can see me and Ari on the hard count on the on three sports YouTube channel at 11 a.m. Eastern time.

We're filling in for new dad JD Piquel who in about five years will be laying on the couch Uber Eatsing Slurpees to his house. Tonight 7 p.m. Eastern time. Let us be your first and second screens as you learn the new CFP rankings Will be there for you breaking it all down Ralph will be texting us three days from now arguing with us about it Gentlemen, this has been amazing. I love you both so much Ralph will see you Ari. I'll see you in about an hour