Andy & Ari On3 - Is Oklahoma a BEST BET this weekend against Ole Miss? Missouri at Vanderbilt | Notre Dame's Scheduling | Is Auburn an Attractive Job?

Episode Date: October 23, 2025

Week 9 is upon us, and Andy & Ari give one last preview on today's Dear Andy & Ari episode. As the College Football Playoff projections are starting to mold into shape, a big game for the CFP is Ole Miss at Oklahoma. Along with Missouri at Vanderbilt, these two SEC matchups are sure to have huge playoff implications down the road. What do you think? Which teams in these matchups have the advantage? A jam packed Dear Andy & Ari episode you won't want to miss right here. (0:00) On Today's Episode(1:03) BetMGM(3:11) Intro: Loaded Week 9 Slate - Ole Miss at Oklahoma(9:10) Tyler Shoemaker joins: Ole Miss at OU(14:31) Northwestern at Nebraska(18:48) San Diego State at Fresno State(23:24) Closing out with Tyler(24:44) Gametime(25:50) Continuing Oklahoma vs Ole Miss(26:13) Previewing Missouri at Vanderbilt(30:30) PaniniAmerica.net(34:02) Notre Dame's Scheduling(40:41) Say something nice about UConn(44:11) Flashback: one team from each p4 conference(52:30) Why is Auburn an attractive job?(58:04) New Teams to win a title?(1:06:45) Mississippi State's Uniforms vs Texas(1:08:33) Conclusion: See you Saturday After Andy & Ari preview the big game in Norman, Tyler Shoemaker joins the show to give his best bets of the week. Along with Ole Miss at Oklahoma, Tyler gives his picks for Northwestern at Nebraska and San Diego State at Fresno State. Do you agree with his picks? Later, it's time for Dear Andy & Ari, and we have some great questions from our listeners: Is Notre Dame just too smart when it comes to scheduling?Say something nice about UConn?Another crack at choosing a team from each P4 conference to not make the CFP in the next 20 years?Why is Auburn an attractive job? Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/t4ofe5Z3cPA Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy Naurion 3 presented by a bet MGM why the Ole Miss Oklahoma game may be the most intriguing of the pre-elimination games between a pair of six and one teams. Our friend Tyler Shuemaker from Vison joins us to talk about that bet MGM line and why it may be a little, a little different than his projection. Plus, did Notre Dame figure things out with their schedule? Did I get everything completely wrong back in 2023? Spoiler alert, yes, I did. Also, we got a viewer slash listener who wants me to say nice things about Yukon. I think we can definitely say some nice things about Yukon. Also, why is the Auburn job attractive?

It's not open yet, but if it does open, why is it attractive? We answer your questions on Dear Andy and Dear Ari. Next, on Andy and Ari on 3, presented by BetMGM. We are proud of using BetMGM lines and totals all season long here at Indian Ari on 3. We want to get you on board too. Here's how you do it. You download the BetMGM app. Use the code CFB when you sign up as in college football.

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rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and R. Anthony, R. Anthony, presented by BetMGM. Big week, big week, and Ari, it starts right off the bat. This is a loaded noon window that includes that USF Memphis game that could help decide who wins the American, could help decide who goes to the playoff. You've got UCLA Indiana in that window.

You've got the, it's well, 45 minutes later, you've got the Auburn, Arkansas game that has its own level of entry that has nothing to do with the college football playoff. But the one I find incredibly fascinating is Ole Miss heading to Oklahoma, a pre-eimination game, one of a couple of pre-elimination games in the SEC where you have a six-and-one team versus a six-and-one team. Missouri Vanderbilt is also a similar situation where the loser of this game is behind the eight ball for the rest of the year because all of these teams feel like they belong

in the college football playoff. You bring pre-diabetic. kind of but not as not as dangerous oh yeah but like it's just like you know you're on the wrong wrong path here and yes you need to come out of this weekend on the right path and like if you look at this old miss Oklahoma game all miss if they win this thing the rest of their schedule plays out pretty nicely Oklahoma their schedule as we've told you time and again since basically since the schedule came out how daunting the back part of Oklahoma's schedule is you've got to win this one because if you can't win this one,

it's going to be really hard to run the table the rest of the way. So win this one, you still got a chance and you have a mulligan in your pocket. This is crucial for Oklahoma. Ole Miss, probably not as crucial, but man, they would like to win it. And of course, we've got all the people in Florida just watching Lane Kiffin, weirdly rooting for him to succeed and fail at the same time. Yeah, the, this is my motto, and I don't know what the lines makers or what our friends at BetMGM are going to do for the rest of the year. Oklahoma has to win every game it plays this year in which it's a favorite.

Yes, that is a, that's a fair statement right there, completely fair statement. Because, you know, they're on the Razors Edge here with the schedule that they have. If they want to be, I mean, like, listen, I don't even know if. if Oklahoma fans, I mean, there always are thinking about the playoff, but like the playoff isn't like make or break in order to, you know, prove them, you know, Brent Venables to be the right guy. But if you don't win the games that you're favored in, then that to me is a bad sign for what made to be around the corner.

So, you know, get the ones that you're supposed to get, give yourself a shot in the playoff to scores. And, you know, we think, we think Oklahoma's good, okay, look at the rest of schedule. So their favorite obviously against all miss. They're at Tennessee, at Alabama, Missouri, LSU. Do we think they're going to be favored in every game except at Alabama? I don't know that they'll be favored of Tennessee.

Okay, that was my question, yeah. They might be favored a two out of their final four, I would be my guess. See, I think a lot depends on what happens with LSU the next couple of weeks before we know who's going to be favored in that game. Yeah, they get LSU at home, which is big. but yeah they're at least on track to potentially finishing nine and three as long as they take care of the business that they should be taking care of now if you go on the road and lose Alabama especially with Alabama out for blood after what happened last year like that's an understandable loss you know you don't want to ever get blown out you certainly don't want what happened against Texas to happen again but they do seem to be in a pretty advantageous spot now what I find interesting Andy is our friends at bet MGM also have old miss to have that to have uh at the the fourth best odds to make the playoff this year. And if you pull up their schedule at your river, like, you can see why.

Like when you say this is a pre-elimination game, I kind of giggle inside because pre-elimination game means that, well, what's the consequence for losing a pre-elimination game? You have to do what you had to do four years ago to get in the playoff, which is be excellent. You know, it's just like, but like, Ole Miss is not at all out of the picture if they lose this game. In fact, I think Ole Miss will be favored in all four of the remaining games. and they would have a pretty inside track to making the playoff at 10 and 2.

The one thing that Ole Miss cannot have happen is losing a game like Kentucky or Florida like they did last year. They cannot do that with South Carolina. They cannot do that with Florida, and they certainly cannot do that with Mississippi State. I trust that they won't, but that's the crazy thing about upsets. You never can see them coming, and that's what we have emergency shows to react to those things. Exactly. They're in a pretty good spot to make the playoff as of right now. Yeah.

but if they win this one i think we can we can sharpy them in basically in yeah yeah yeah i would take it would take a monumental collapse at that point for them not to make it so that but florida's a state of oklahoma right they i would think so i would think the florida people are rooting for oklahoma because they want lane to succeed but just not that much just not too much it's such a strange which funny enough is what gets you fired at florida right it nobody He said it made sense. It's just how it's going. It's banana land.

Speaking of people who make things make sense, our friend Tyler Shoemaker from Beeson is going to join us to talk about his best bets. And this is one of them. This game is one of his best bets. He's got three plays for this week to give us. And he is very intrigued by the line on this game. So let us talk to Tyler Shoemaker from Beeson right now.

Tyler, I got to ask, did you wear crimson and cream on purpose? You know, because we're going to tell you, I wore this. I did a decent hit earlier this morning, and they asked me if it was for Indiana. And I had to remind him, I'm a Buckeye, so I just pretend it's scarlet. I don't think it actually is, though. Well, so it would have to be candy striped if it were Indiana. So that would be the tell. But I ask because we're going to talk, oh,

Miss and Oklahoma. This is one of those pre-eimination games. There's a couple of them this week. You got Ole Miss Oklahoma and Vandy, Missouri, where you have a one-loss team versus a one-loss team, teams with very high expectations, teams that want to make the college football playoff, feel like they have the resources and the roster to make the college football playoff. But if you lose this week, you are behind the eight ball. And this is a really interesting game. It opened, I believe, Oklahoma minus four and a half and is now going to up to Oklahoma minus five and a half. Yeah, you kind of made my first point for me is that the market is, is an agreement here on, on Oklahoma, moving the line already a point here. I project the Oklahoma

minus six and a half. And we're at the point in the season where I don't have any preseason priors baked into my projections now. Everything is on field only opponent adjusted what you've done on the field this year. So I've got Oklahoma minus six and a half. Now, the good thing about being at this point in the season is now these teams have played so many games. Now I can not only look at just the on-field data, but I can also look at, okay, just in your last three games, you know, how are these teams trending? And that's how I try to get ahead of the market is like, look at their total body of work, and then look at the last three games, how these teams are trending. And I actually would have Oklahoma minus eight and a half looking at their last three games. So all the signals

that I'm looking at here, point me in Oklahoma, plus, you know, something you can't really quantify, but something I absolutely took into account. And I think I've talked about this on the show before teams the week after they have to play ohio state bama georgia those type of teams there's a physical toll that it takes and there's a mental toll that it takes especially with the gay with the way the game went uh at georgia last week old miss probably feels like they should have won that game so that's as an athlete i've been in that spot where you feel like you outplay the other team but you still lose that's that's pretty deflating and now you got to go on the road to oklahoma playing one of the top three defenses in the country i think that's a really tough task uh for for lane kiff and

team here this week. The thing that stands out to me about the last three games is that the last three games, Oklahoma's worst game of the season as a part of that group. What, um, even with the worst game that they played this year against Texas and Dallas, the numbers beared out that way. And what specifically are you looking at when you look at the data from the last three games? Like, what is it calculating? So people understand. So it basically each, each game that a team plays, um, gets like what I call like a TSI game grade, which, you know, goes into your power rating. like your power rating is just your average of all those game grades, essentially. So it's an opponent-adjusted kind of game grade.

So the game grades over the last three games, you know, favor Oklahoma even more so than the total body of work, which has obviously been impressive so far for Oklahoma. It's just, it's amazing to me, like how the Texas game can be in there. And this is still how this comes out. Because I look at these teams and it's like, okay, I get where you're worried about Ole Miss. defense. But I also worry about Oklahoma's scoring because we saw them against Texas and they

struggled. Yeah, I mean, that's a fair point. I would say that Texas, I know Texas is not what we thought it was going to be, but that's mostly an offensive conversation. I think the Texas defense is for the most part what we thought it was going to be. I think by by most metrics, they're top three, top five in the country. So I don't think I would look at what they did against the Texas defense and think, well, Ole Miss is going to be able to do that to them also because Ole Miss's defense is not the caliber of defense that Texas is. You know, what I think is the actual enlightening discussion about this is what that says about Ole Miss.

Because Ole Miss is a one-loss team. They were in the top five last week. And if you go look at their resume, you know, zooming out, you know, they beat an Arkansas team that Notre Dame won by like 9,000 points against by six. Their best win of the season is LSU at home. they won by five and LSU is kind of heading in the wrong direction and then of course the Georgia game now I think they probably should have won or could have won that Georgia game but I'm not sure that we're 100% all the way there with Georgia either it's like is

Ole Miss off to a good start record wise but not actually as good as we may perceive and like is the math telling us that before we see it with our own eyes yeah I mean I think they are good I don't think you know we were talking before the show here when you talked with Doug and bill yesterday about who can win the national championship. I don't think Ole Miss is in that tier. I've got them power rated 18th right now. I've got them about a half point behind like Missouri, Texas, Michigan, those type of teams. So I don't, I don't think they're like a true contender. I think they're a really solid team, but I don't think they're like in that upper echelon of college football this year. This is going to be fascinating. Also, you may be

wearing the, well, you're not wearing Nebraska red because I know we're going to go with this. I want to move to the Big Ten, Northwestern heads to Nebraska, Nebraska coming off, getting just drilled by Minnesota, but Nebraska is a seven and a half point favorite. Northwestern, we've seen them beat Penn State, the win against UCLA looking better and better, and David Braun looking like he's doing a pretty good job there in a year that didn't start off looking so great. What do you think happens here? yeah i i'm on northwestern here i i bet nebraska last week you know we we talked before my numbers coming into the season were lower on nebraska they they kind of caught up and and were then pretty high on Nebraska with the way they started this season but they just have not been as good lately i mean they they were never in the game with minnesota and we saw oh high state shelved

minnesota in a locker for four quarters or three and a half quarters a few weeks ago and just made them look like an fcs team so the fact that Nebraska just showed up and got rolled by Minnesota, has me a little concerned. And, you know, I'm not a big, like, narrative guy when it comes to this stuff. But I do wonder how much the Penn State Matt Rule stuff is swirling around there and is impacting their preparation, perhaps. Again, that's something you can't quantify. But when the numbers point me in a direction and I kind of feel like the vibes, as we say,

kind of match that. I like this play. Over the last three games, I would actually make Northwestern a huge favorite. favorite. They're surging right now. They're playing much better football than Nebraska is over the last three games. Yeah, if you are right about this and Northwestern somehow wins outright, it's going to be full on meltdown mode in Lincoln. No doubt. I was on a podcast this week in Omaha and we were talking about the Minnesota game and they were very depressed. Like if it turns into a two-game stretch like this, that would be total rock bottom. And like I've watched Northwestern.

play this year and they don't seem dysfunctional they don't seem talented they seem slower you know they seem like what you would think northwestern would seem like uh outside of the crazy pat fitzgerald era teams but they seem like a functional team yeah and i mean obviously when you're when you're talking about betting an underdog against going going to Nebraska which isn't an easy place to play like obviously you want to you want to back a team that you feel like at least as capable of making the plays necessary to keep the game close and you know this is a low total both these teams you know they're not going to like chuck it all over the yard and light up the scoreboard by any means so if we got got a low total game

with teams training in the opposite direction i'll gladly take the dog here at uh you know above a touchdown what what is it about nebraska is there's a particular stat or two that that you use in your index that you've seen the last three games that that particularly troubles you um there's not i'd have to i'd have to dive into the numbers that i that's why i make my nice like nice round offensive and defensive ratings just for quick reference. I'd have to dive into the weeds there. But, I mean, they just, even just the eye test, you know, because I was on Nebraska last week against Minnesota, so I watched that game, invested.

And it was just like, what? I mean, as Ari knows, like, that's one of those games, like halfway through the first quarters, like, well, we just set money on fire because this, Rari knows. Yeah, this has no chance. Ari knows. Ari wasn't watching that game because Ari was knee deep and I meant Miami lost column. And I go off the deep end a little bit. And I chased Miami when they were down 14-0, and I was writing a column about that.

But I did, I was like checking in. I was like, what the hell is going on over here? Yeah, it is interesting because Nebraska was hot and now they're not. And it happened very quickly. And it seemed to happen right around the time that the Penn State job came open. And I know that's completely speculative in all like conjecture, but it is definitely a trend. Yeah, I thought it was very just cool. incidental that like the week that that stuff starts to surface is their worst game of the

season. So, you know, that that is definitely, I have an eyebrow raised. Again, I wouldn't base my whole, I wouldn't just bet based just off of that, of course. But the fact that the number points me in that direction and that stuff's kind of going on at the same time is, is kind of alarming. So, Tyler, one of the other games I know you want to talk about is San Diego State, going to Fresno State. San Diego State is in a weird place. Like, they have this odd loss at Washington State early. Then they crush Cal 34 to nothing. Then they beat Northern Illinois 6 to 3.

Like, it's the strangest. Strangest three game stretch you could see. Scoring profile I've ever seen for a team. But they seem to have settled in nicely with the wins against Colorado State, Nevada. What do you like about Sean Lewis's team? Yeah, I, this number is crazy. So the number has been bet up to three from two, two and a half earlier in the week. I make it San Diego State minus 17.

Oh, my God. I'm showing a lot of money. Is there going to be a press conference about this? Apparently, yeah. So I'm suspicious as to like why I have such a huge discrepancy because you normally don't see that. But again, I think where this is coming from is, as I've talked about before, odds makers still do have their preseason priors baked in.

And just for quick reference, I looked before the season, I would have made Fresno State an 11.5 point favorite in this game, but based on what they've done on the field, that's now flipped 28 points. So I think that's where the kind of the lines coming in because preseason Fresno minus 11.5. Now I've got San Diego State minus 17, you know, San Diego State minus 3 somewhere in the middle. So that, that I guess kind of explains it and makes sense. What jumps out to me with San Diego State is like the totals of their games. I know this isn't a totals bet, but like they've had some totals, you know, going under like you mentioned. that Northern Illinois game totals nine points, and then they've had other games, you know, where they're in the 40s, 50s, like, they're just kind of all over the place, but they've shown they can win multiple ways, which, you know, again, when you're backing a favorite, that's, you know, kind of something nice you want to have in your pocket that they can, they can adapt and win, you know, kind of however the game dictates, the flow is going to go. Tyler, before I go cash out my daughter's 529 plan and put it on San Diego State, I just was wondering,

There have been times in the past, though, where you have had pretty big discrepancies like this, right? And when you have discrepancies, do you feel like there's added juice to those games? Like, is this your favorite play of the week? Or do you, like, go into it cautiously optimistic? I would say more cautiously optimistic. I think you still have to respect the betting market. You know, I'm not pompous enough to think that, like, they're just completely wrong. And, like, there's no way it could go that way.

State's like for sure going to blow them out. I just look at the trends in the data. And again, I make it 17. The last three games, I'd make it San Diego State minus 22. So the data is trending heavily towards San Diego State. So projecting that out, like if this is a San Diego State blowout, I'm not going to be surprised. But also if it's, you know, a sweat in the fourth quarter and they win by seven, I also

won't be surprised by that either. So Michigan fans will remember Jaden DeNagal, who is now San Diego State's quarterback. He was with the Wolverines out of high school. and, you know, obviously was part of the purge of quarterbacks to get where they are now. But I do want you guys to know, you know what they're leading Russia's name is, right? No. Lucky Sutton. I'll name team.

You're fucking lucky here, guys. Lucky Sutton. Go ahead. I'm trying to think of, like, where that would land on, like, good college names, and I like the sexual ones better. Lucky's pretty good. But Tyler, I do have to ask you, getting back to your Ole Miss Oklahoma pick, did anyone in Gainesville, Florida, contact you this week?

Just curious. They did not. Not as yet. Now, my brother is a big Florida fan, so, you know, I'm on alert for that, but no. This is the whole idea. They are wishing for, like, they want Ole Miss to lose exactly three games. this season. They want to be good, but not too good. Yeah, I love that idea of like, well, they need him to lose because then that opens things up and makes transition cleaner. But

if he misses the playoff to make that transition cleaner, then he's no longer, like, is accomplished. So, like, it's like, I don't know, like, why you would want that. But it is kind of a funny thing. Tyler, I wanted to ask you one thing. When or why do you, remove your preseason priors in week nine and why do the books not and like do you do it at the same time every year or how do you make that judgment call on your on your numbers yeah no that that's a good question i and honestly it's it's kind of year to year i just kind of see how it's going because each week of the season i'm kind of testing you know i put out my official tSI numbers but then i'm also testing other formulas weighing the the more recent games more or less and those type of things

And this season, it seemed to me that the trends of the more recent games and the on-field data was outperforming the formulas with the priors baked in. So I felt good getting to this midpoint of the season before I pulled them out. And it's a gradual regression, obviously up to that point. It's not just cold turkey. But I did feel like now was the time to pull the preseason priors out because of how the formulas have performed against each other. Put you on the spot here. You don't have to have an answer, but it is Thursday.

this show will be running Thursday. Do we got to play for Thursday night football? He does NFL, too, guys. Thursday night football. I took the Chargers minus three. I would lean under in that game as well, and I'll probably have a little bit on South Alabama minus six and a half in the college game.

Electric. Electric. Electric. Testy Jim Harbaugh is always a dangerous Jim Harbaugh. That's right, Tyler. Tyler Shoemaker, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, guys. That was Tyler Shoemaker. And if you want to go to any of these games that we're talking about today, and we're talking about a bunch of them.

Download the GameTime app, redeem the code Staples. Get $20 off your first purchase, terms apply, of course. But you can go to any college football game or NFL game or any game or comedy show or concert with game. They give tickets to everything. And right now, the tickets in Bloomington, kind of hot for that UCLA game. The tickets in Baton Rouge for that Texas A&MLSU game, not as expensive as you'd think. Go to gametime.com, especially if you're trying to decide at the last minute, if you want to go to a game, hidden game time on Saturday morning is the way to go because you can see some very interesting price movements the day of the game. So if you go to game time, use the code Staples, $20 off your first purchase.

The price you see is the price you pay, no hidden fees, no BS. Game time, swipe, tap, ticket, go. All right. Ari, very interesting for Tyler about Oklahoma and Ole Miss, about Oklahoma in the last three games, which includes their worst game, that even with their worst game baked in, they would still be a favorite in this game. So I find that very interesting. Let's talk a little bit about the other pre-eimination game in the SEC. That's Vandy, Missouri, in Nashville. We had Clark Lee on the show earlier. Eli Drinkwitz got up, you know, game day is going to that game. Eli Drinkwis got up and said, hey, here to talk to us. So big time underdog card being played by the Tigers here.

They're only a three-point dog, by the way. Yeah, both of these teams, so I went as Tyler alluded to on Bill and Doug show yesterday and we talked about teams. That would be Bill Landis and Doug Laemarice, the Kings of the North. It's not a Bill and Doug show now. Um, it, we had a discussion about who could win the national title. Now, I don't want to steal Doug's, you know, thought process. Hopefully, you know, you'll hear it firsthand at one at some point.

He doesn't think Alabama or Georgia can win it. Um, which is the one on Georgia, but that it's insane to, to not think Alabama can win it after the last four games. But the question here with Missouri and Vanderbilt, because as I was assembling my list of teams who I thought could win, these two teams. were written down as maybes before I went through it. And then I ultimately decided that my answers to both would be no, although Missouri ranks both in the top 10 in total offense and total defense this year,

which I, you know. Two worthless stats. But I love those stats. Yeah, counting stats mean nothing. So they suck is what you're saying. I'm not saying they suck. It's nice. It's good to be good in both of those, but they don't actually,

you need context. They provide zero context. That's the problem. do you think that either of these teams could be competitive in the playoff and if you think one or the other could or both can't I'm just trying to use that as a contact I have a hard time seeing either one of these teams winning three or four games in a row in the playoff

which is what you have to do to win the national title could I see them winning a game in the playoff and advancing? Yeah, I can't. I can see both of them doing that. The reason why I ask is like who do you just think is better right at this point? Like just, and we don't know they're playing. Between these two, I have no idea. yeah it's a hard game yeah i mean there's a reason is a three point spread the home team is favored

by three which is essentially the book saying this is a pickup at a neutral site that's right um yeah i don't know i don't know what to think i and like these SEC games are so difficult because like there is this hodgepodge of like a bunch of teams that feel very similar um and although they have different personnel and have were assembled in different ways um You know, my thought process here is that I think that Vanderbilt plays really well as a team. I think I would take Vanderbilt's quarterback. They're at home. Like, that's my calculus here.

Is it like, what would be the pushback from the Missouri side? The pushback from the Missouri side is we both played Bama, really tough. You know, we have a dominant run game. If Amad Hardy takes over this game, it's over. You know, that's pretty much the pushback from Missouri. Is they'll try to do with Amad Hardy what Jim Miller, and Alabama did to Vandy. But, you know,

Bo Per Buehula is maybe not Ty Simpson. And Diego Pavia is Diego Pavia. We know what Diego Pavia is. So that's the thing. I lean toward Vandy here because of Diego Pavia. I just trust him more. And it might be that I've just got a bigger sample size with him than I have with Bockeviel. Yeah, right.

And in Missou, like, could have won the Alabama game and, like, handed it over to Bama on a platter. So, like that's me, too. It's like, how are you going to react in a competitive environment? They were at home. They're not at home this time. But, yeah, I'm very excited to see this game, and I think it's going to be a huge, you know,

piece of context that we need to continue to, you know, wade through all of these games moving forward into the playoff. Yeah, it's going to be so much fun. And we've got a lot more fun today because it's dear Andy and dear Rory Day. Some great questions from the folks, including one that dredged us. up to something I said about a year and a half ago that holy crap if you thought i've said some dumb things and i've i've looked dumb before this is uh this is going to take the cake but we got

we got a couple other things to talk about first before that i'm going to tell everybody about our friends at panini and we're going to rip a pack here pinini america dot net visit that to start collecting your favorite college and NFL stars i have a pack of h2 select 2004 so i got a disco Prism, Michael Pinnock, Jr. out of the last pack of these that we ripped. That was a nice one. So we're looking for silver prisms. We're looking for disco prisms. We're looking for numbers. Yeah, we're looking for the numbers etched in. So let's see what we got. Quarterbacks. Yep, yep. So we got a Theo Johnson rookie card right here. This guy's not a rookie. Earl Campbell. Earl Campbell. This guy's not a rookie either. This is Brett Favre in his Jets uniform. Bad things happen to Brett Farr in the Jets, you know. Well, Red Farr made bad things happen to itself.

Yeah, I was going to say, I was phrased it the other way, but most people have bad things happen to them in a Jets uniform. Yeah, exactly. K.Dott, and this one is numbered to 49. This is a prism one. K. Dotten, the tight end for the Buccaneers, a favorite target of Baker Mayfield. We got DeMarcus Ware, excellent pass rusher,

and, of course, Amon Ra, St. Brown. Open another one. No. Yeah, what the heck? Oh, you will? Oh, let's open a little more. Come on, one. It's fun.

Come on one. It's fun. This is the product that you hit the Puka card out of last year, by the way. It is. It is. It was a Pooka rookie card. Prism. Yeah.

Tyler Guyton, Rookie tackle for the Cowboys last year. We got Sam Darnel. Oh, here's a guy who's playing really well right now. Rico Dowdell. He is in his Cowboys uniform, but he is not. He's not a cowboy anymore. He's a panther now. Okay, this is a PRISM.

This is number to 49. I love this because I'm an offensive line dork, and I realize that in the card industry, the offensive linemen are not sexy. Jackson, former Oregon Center, plays with the Raiders now. Number to 49, red prism. Fight me.

I'll take it. I know who I want that of Cole Kublich. He's a big officer. Oh, yeah. Panini sent me some stuff, Andy. They sent me the Ohio's. state boxer team sets and or blaster boxes and I opened up this the Julian San ammo ink shimmer card that's an NIL card that looks like Panini prism for the 2024 year

that might be a that might be a monster because Julian sane is playing really well that he's holding that really well and you can get those cards out of the Ohio State team sets if you're looking for the Jeremiah Smith color blast if you're looking for the Archie Griffin color blast which I saw on eBay the other day. It's the Ohio State Blasterboxes. It's these. So those are really cool. I can't wait until they start making those for other teams, too.

Yeah, and they will. But always cool to pull a quarterback that is in the top five of Heisman odds at the moment. Nothing more fun to me than opening up Panini packs. I'm almost 40 years old and I'm on the other end of a camera, like begging Andy to open other packs. I'm not even involved in it. It's not my card. I get excited.

I watch YouTube videos of people opening them. I watch breaks. It's something that I'm at least thinking about for at least one hour a day. It's a great hobby to get involved in Panini, America.net to start your collection today. Ari, let us answer some questions from the folks. Eric, asked us two questions. We're actually answer both of Eric's questions because I thought they were both good.

They're unrelated, but they're both really good. So we're going to start with question one from Eric. is Notre Dame just smarter than everyone else with scheduling? This is the old model of lose early and everything is fine. The two toughest games early and they reel off 10 in a row against a garbage schedule. This gets swept under the rug because of 10 in a row and they make the playoff over another 10 and two team that happens to have a later loss. It has nothing to do with when they lose the games.

And it's certainly not them being smarter. They don't want to schedule like this. They have to schedule like this because they can't get good teams to play them later in the season because the good teams in power conferences are in conference and do not want to add Notre Dame in. They have to do it in the ACC because of a scheduling agreement between Notre Dame and the ACC. But like they're not getting Texas A&M to play them in November. That's going to happen in September. That's the only time with USCN.

I mean, like that's kind of the same, you know, situation. Andy, the question I want to ask you, and I think I know what your answer is, I know what my answer is. but if Notre Dame finished 10 and two in their final two games were losses, do you think they would have a lower chance of getting in than their first two games being lost? Yes, it would be a lower chance because if they'd beat Miami and Texas A&M, they'd have two good wins and everybody would be like, oh my God, they beat Miami and Texas A&M, they're in.

So, no, it's not. And the other thing is it's a fallacy that if you won early and lost late that you had a worst chance, like that actually didn't happen. Like, I was on a team that lost the last game of the regular season and still won the national championship. That was my freshman year at Florida. Lose to Florida State in Tallahassee, crazy stuff happens everywhere else. Thank you, James Brown, roll left against Nebraska.

And you get to play Florida State again for the national title. The Oklahoma team that lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game and still played in the BCS championship against a team. LSU like that happened it's not what it actually didn't work that way everybody thinks it did but it didn't so when you play your good games doesn't matter you need to try to win your good games Notre Dame did not win its good games and this is what's revelatory about it like the notion that being hot and winning 10 in a row is the thing that gets them in is a misnomer to me no like they might they were they were right there against two plus

playoff teams and then they won their other games. And they might think about it, like in the room, because it is people who are unbiased watching games saying, oh, wow, Notre Dame is playing their best football of the year right now. Like, I understand that. But even if that is true, that's not the metric. That's not the data and that's not the, you know, the talking point that gets you in at the end of the year. What gets you in is your total resume and who you beat. It's not as automatic with 10 and 2, especially after the Miami lost to Louisville. Because if Miami's 10 and 2 and Notre Dame's 10 and 2, Miami is in over Notre Dame.

If Texas A&M is 10 and 2 and Texas A&M is in over Notre Dame. Now, there's a chance all three would get in in that scenario, but there's also a chance that they are up against it and only one can get in. Well, guess who's not getting in, the one that lost of the other two? Right. So, you know, I think that there's just this like common misunderstanding of what's important as it pertains to the committee and narratives that get thrown around about winning streaks and times of losses and all those things. It really is just a set of data and the data is used. I mean, I honestly think that if the committee pulled away all the logos and they just used the data, they would probably arrive at the same result.

Well, and the thing is like Notre Dame does not want to do this. They would prefer to spread the good games throughout the schedule for practical reasons, for GFP reasons, for every other, every reason. By how good it is based on what it does in its opener, who know Coach Merricko to want that. Yeah. So, and you're seeing it play out right now as they argue about the future of the USC series because USC wants to play them in September. Understandable because USC's in the Big Ten. And USC does not want to interrupt its Big Ten schedule when it goes to South Bend. and it doesn't want to play at the end of the year when they play in LA.

But that's where it's traditionally been played. That's where Notre Dame would like to keep playing it because it's obviously advantageous for Notre Dame to have a good quality, juicy opponent in those spots, which is hard to schedule for an independent. That's hard to do. So they have the deal with the ACC. They're going to be years where the ACC

serves them up good teams that they get to play in October and November. but that's not going to be every year. So as long as they're an independent, they're going to have to deal with a front-loaded schedule. And like this year they may get away with it, but they may not. The thing that I think is really funny about the Notre Dame should join a conference discourse is that like there are things that they have to do that are less than advantageous for them in order to remain independent. Like it's not just all benefit.

There are sacrifices. Now, one of the biggest sacrifices that they had is no longer in effect. With last year's playoff system, they never could be a top four seed and receive a buy week as a result. I thought that was a pretty interesting tradeoff. You know, now that doesn't exist anymore with the new reformed college football playoff rules. But not everything lands in Notre Dame's favor because of independence. And I think that the way that they schedule and the way they have to schedule is one of the negatives of that. So I think you're thinking about it a little bit wrong.

And I think part of the reason why is because, because of a narrative that is taking place about what the actual qualification. When somebody loses has never actually mattered. We've obviously assumed it does, but if you look historically at when teams lose, it doesn't matter. It's who do you lose to, who'd you beat.

And, you know, I do think there may be a little bit of, oh, they've won 10 in a row, they're hot, they've evolved as a team. But again, if they run up against, to 10 and 2 Miami, and that's the last that large spot. Notre Dame isn't getting it. Period. So, yeah, it's a pretty simple equation right there.

All right, next one from Drew. Now, Drew led this series of emails off a few weeks ago was just an email that said, say something nice about Yukon. And it was a week that I had put, it was actually last week, and I had put Yukon in my best bets. they were going to play Boston College

for some reason they were underdogs against Boston College because I guess I don't know people had not watched either team play but you knew they were going to win of course they did so Drew the Yukon fan sends me this this week also as it relates to the Florida State job

ACC wins since the start of the 24 season Yukon 2 Florida State 1 this is also true and it's a nice thing we can say about Yukon UConn, by the way, is a 10.5 point favorite at Rice this weekend. You also have something else very nice to say about UCon, but I'm not sure that a UCon fan will want to hear about it. No, I hate to tell you this, guys, Jim Moore is doing a hell of a job there.

He has done a great job at UCon, and given the number of job openings that they're going to be, I think Jim Morris should be a candidate for a lot of these jobs, like the ACC-type jobs. You know, I'm sure they're not going to rehire him at UCLA. but he was actually a pretty good coach at UCLA and brought in a lot of good talent at UCLA. So as these jobs open, as you see people move into other jobs and the backfill starts, like high-level group of five type jobs, like a big job in the American, like we've said, we could see Memphis opening, we could see USF opening, we could see Tulane opening. These are all jobs.

I would consider Jim Moore for those jobs. I would consider Jim Moore for a job in the ACC for jobs, you know, in the lower part of the Big Ten. the SEC as well. Like, he's done a tremendous job because you should not be able to win a game at Yukon. You should not be able to win a single game at Yukon. Now, I know and understand that Kurt Signetti took a team that was similar to Yukon and then made them a playoff team, which is a more, you know, crazy jump.

There are a lot of coaches that took pretty solid to average teams and made them in the playoff teams. They got a ton of credit. You should get a ton of credit for taking a team that was hopeless and was losing every game by 100 and turning them into a competent team that is, you know, beating ACC teams and being competitive. I mean, Yukon is 5 and 2 right now. Yeah.

The toughest game they have left is Duke, which is a very tough game. But this year and last year combined and what they've been able to do, even though every time they have a good player, they pretty much get taken in the portal. Like, Jim Moore has done a really good job. So that's just one to think about if you're an AD, if you're worried your coach is going to leave as this whole carousel starts spinning very fast, keep that name in your back pocket because he's just been tremendous. And if you're a fan who wants to write in a question that says, be nice to my favorite team, be careful what you wish for because Andy just put Jim Mor on every single AD's. Well, I think Drew knows what's going on. I think Drew's very smart.

And I appreciate it because Drew's been sending me emails for a while. I love, love when Drew sends me an email. I appreciate what he's saying. And I think he knows. And I think they're enjoying this. And look, the other thing is if you lose you more, at least somebody's shown you the blueprint. So you've got an idea of what it takes to win.

Now already comes the hard part. Like on, you know, on Mondays, when we talk about your record picking against the spread, how you dread that? I've been dreading this since this email came through. through. So this is Jeff. Jeff's a frequent question asker. And Jeff asked a question back before you came. So this is December 2023. So it's my first year on three. Jeff asked a mailback question. And I'll, I'll just go with what Jeff wrote me this week. Before last season and a few weeks,

it was actually a few months before Ari's triumphant return. I asked Andy to pick one team from each Power Four conference that he would be confident betting a lot of money against in regard to making the CFP in the next 20 years. Andy's choices. The Big Ten, Indiana. The SEC, Vanderbilt. The ACC Boston College. The Big 12 did not pick one because Andy said the conference was too crazy.

Indiana made the playoff last year in Vanderbilt as a CFP contender this year with Ari back, with the two you like to take a crack at it this year. One team from each Power 4 conference that you don't think can make the CFP in the next 20 years. For this experiment, let's pretend no team's change. change conferences and assume we're heading to a 14 or 16 team CFP with your decision-making. River, just play the club. Oh, God. That you are going to hear it and you're going to say, this is so easy.

And we get to the end and you're like, nope, this is really hard. Andy, you win $100 million if you can pick four programs, one from each Power 4 conference as of next season, that you were confident will not make the 12-team playoff in its first 20 additions. one team from your four makes it you lose which four are you taking my producer river with a photo on the question card well that's the obvious one we're definitely taking vanderbilt i'm confident that vanderbilt will not make the 12 team playoff in the first 20 year and first of all are we sure it's going to go for 20 years the last one only went for 10 so are we positive but we'll let's say it does go for 20 years. I'm confident

Vanderbilt won't make it. Go to the Big Ten. I have two schools here that I feel very confident will not make it. Indiana or Rutgers. You can pick either one. I don't think they'll make it. So, we'll go with Indiana.

If we have to pick one, we'll go with Indiana. So I feel very confident so far. $100 million and I've already lost. Andy? I didn't even make it. I didn't even make it 10 months. Andy, if you would have asked that same question to every other college football reporter in any region of the country at any level of publication, they all would have said the same thing. I should have picked Rutgers, though. How did I pick Rutgers?

And I was actually like thinking about the question. Are we going to attempt it again? Because we could be wrong next year. Like who are, and it's like, it's kind of hard too because I'm trying to figure out like my understanding of actual. investment in college football and care to do it because like Indiana's entire temperament as a program shifted when they got Kurt Signetti that didn't exist yet. Now also you have to acknowledge that that question was asked before I joined the show and I was able to reel you in because I'm the I'm the straight guy on this. You know like I wasn't able to bring you back. Like I look at this

and like now the the obvious answer probably would be Purdue because that's the other team that hasn't doing well but like Purdue and the reason i didn't pick per game recently yeah like that's why i didn't pick Purdue uh Northwestern like you what you would do is you would pick the team that has shown the least amount of life in the previous three or four years but like as you guys have found out and maybe this is the best thing about NIL like there was so much pushback about NIL and the expanded playoff and all these things five years ago that would have been the easiest question in the world to answer and you would have been right if the system didn't change. If the sport didn't change,

you would have been right. But now who are you picking it out of the Big Ten? Northwrester or Purdue? Rutgers. I'm picking Rutgers. But that said, who knows? I mean, Rutgers could easily just if Rutgers

suddenly becomes the school that every, all the best players in New Jersey sign with, you suddenly have a great team. Like, is Mr. Rutker, like, still around? Like, I don't know if you got the money to spend mr rutgers is not still around uh do you do you want to say what you what you're trying to say here that they should be the university of new jersey no

and they'd be better at football state would be better um no jersey state would not be better university of new jersey for sure i don't know i just always thought that state sounded good like yeah i'm rooting for state you know i don't know uh i thought i don't know how ruckers was like Zoolander who's winning the match pup state I look this up every like month and then read it and like oh okay and then I forget like why is Rutgers named Rutgers I've looked this up 12 times I can't remember I have no ability to retain that piece of information but I was going to assume that it was like a really wealthy person back in the 1900s that named him that and I probably earlier than that that's a you know 1800s like they're even populated for a while football I don't know if you know that. I've heard. Colonel Henry Rutgers, Revolution War Hero, and Benefactor.

Do you know what the actual way to maybe do this is? Hmm. Is to pick a team that is steady, but hasn't had any major flare-ups. Like Maryland, for instance. Like, Maryland is basically the same team every year. But Maryland is in such a talent hotbed that they could just explode one year and be,

And make the playoffs. That much better than Rutgers? Not really. They're both good. They're both in a situation where if the best players around them suddenly decided we're coming and they did that for two straight years,

you could put together a playoff team. But like so could Northwestern. Like if they had everybody in Chicago in the Midwestern. Private school, academic different. Maybe that's it. But then if you went to academic private school, then let me introduce you to Vanderbilt.

You know, it's just like, stop it. Stop it. Really hard. No, I'm just going to say, like we're going to abstain probably because you can't do it anymore, which is Yeah, you absolutely can't. Every league has become the big 12 and therefore I can't do it. Will Mississippi State make the playoff? Well, they were the first number one team in the college

football playoff poll. Right. And would have made the playoff that year. Kentucky would have made the playoff in two years, right? That they were. I believe so, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I guess the Carolina would have made it like five times. If you went down all the lists of the conferences, which team would never have made it during the 12-team era would be a good place to start. Yeah. Like Maryland, I don't think ever would have made it. Vanderbilt's the only one in the SEC, I think. It wouldn't.

Arkansas, I don't think, had one of those years. But before the 12-team, Arkansas had years where they would have made the 12-feet playoff. And also, that is a terrible idea because Indiana wouldn't have made it the previous 12 years, and they made it in the first year. Right. And they wouldn't have made it in many of the previous 30 years. So, Jeff, thank you for bringing it up. but also

but I'm glad you did you can't take that one on the chin man like that was a layup that was like there's you were taking the problem is there's video that's the hardest part

there's video and the thing is is that like if you went back in time and changed your answers who would you have changed them to then you would have been wrong and no matter who you did it to I would have said Rutgers

in Vanderbilt so I would have been still right but possibly wrong because if you would have changed your answer from Vanderbilt to somebody else I guess you could have said Mississippi State but that would have looked stupid

considering they were the first team ranked number one in the playoff. Yeah, and that's why I would have never picked them. So, yeah, it's very tough. But I love it. I appreciate it, Jeff. Thank you so much for bringing it back up and causing me this pain. But it's good for the show.

So I appreciate it. Let's get to Eric's second question. Eric's question number two is one. And it's sometimes like, I forget that not everybody's from where I'm from. And not everybody follows the sport in the same way I do. and that's why I think this is a great question because I think you and I do need to discuss this and see if we're right.

So this is what Eric writes. Explain why Auburn is an attractive job in the SEC. I'm not from the South, but as an outside observer, all the bigger state schools have a much higher profile than Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, even Ole Miss. Auburn had one great run with Cam, but that was 15 years ago. I just don't see it as a great opening

when the team is destined to be in the bottom half of the SEC every year. So Eric, I think Eric thinks history started in 2010, I suppose. Auburn's actually gone undefeated twice this century. Auburn also went undefeated in 1994. Auburn had really good teams and has had really good teams periodically since the 50s. Like, this has been a good program over the years. Like, I don't, I don't get the, the only, they had one good year with Cam. Yeah, that's the way I view it.

But here's probably a way as somebody who also is not from the South for you to explain it, because I would love to know what your take is. Auburn and Tuscaloosa are what, like two and a half hours away from each other? Yeah. So from that standpoint, you probably are recruiting from the same geographical regions, historically. Yes, yes. And I understand, too, that Alabama has had two of the greatest coaches of all time coach there. And maybe that's the whole answer.

But what is the thing that Alabama has done from a program standpoint in terms of resources, buy-in, commitment, recruiting, anything, outside of maybe making better coaching hires that separated those two programs from being elite? Because it feels like Auburn's plan should be very similar to Alabama's. Alabama has just been better at executing it. But like, whenever I think about why is the Auburn job viewed as a high-level job, I think of it always from how bad does the place want to win and how much money will they spend to win? And I think that they check both of those boxes. Yeah, they want to win really badly.

I would say that Alabama's people are better. And when I say people, I mean, they're money people and their power people. Alabama's power people are better at alignment than Auburns. Auburns are historically bad at alignment. They're historically, you know, you've got... a couple, well, it was Bobby Louder. Now it's the yellow fellow Jimmy Rain. Like, you'll have that one big money booster who has maybe outsized influence.

And it complicates coaching hires. It complicates coaching firings and deciding when to do what. I think that is the difference, really, between Auburn and Alabama. Brian Harsen deserved to be fired. He didn't deserve to be hired. That's the problem. But the way it went down was this functional, too. Oh, 100%.

They decided too late that he shouldn't have been hired in the first place and then actively tried to sabotage him. Which would be, if I were a coach, I would not want to work there as a result. No. Yeah. No, and Brian, like Brian Harsen got done dirty. This is not to say that, because I know the Auburn fans are always like, but he shouldn't have been hired.

No, he shouldn't have. That's the fault of Allen Green, your former athletic director, who hired him. He should not have been hired in the first place. But once he was, you shouldn't have tried to sabotage him either. Like, that's also a problem. And people remember that sort of thing. Yeah. And if you're a coach who wants to go in there, I would ask myself,

well, what if they changed their mind about me, six months in or a year in? What are they going to do to me? Like that. Now, but here's what I will say about Auburn or any other high profile, high pressure SEC job. The only way to keep them from doing that is to, win. They pay you a lot of money. They pay you to win. Win. I can't make it simpler than that because here's the thing. Whether they try to sabotage you or not, the same thing will happen no matter what

if you lose at LSU, if you lose at Florida, if you lose at Auburn, if you lose at Alabama, if you lose at Tennessee, if you lose at Texas, if you lose at Texas A&M, you will be fired. So, win. Yeah. There are also people in our lives or in in our lives before that others would have deemed hard to work for. And there's a certain type of personality that would take that challenge head on because they're about it. And the thing is when you win at Auburn, there is no one who will love you more than the Auburn fans.

Yeah. They will have your back. You can do anything. And there is go into a job wondering what if I'll fail. Right. Exactly. They will get behind you. They will be the ultimate home field advantage.

They will be all of that. so that's the thing it is a lot of passion it is 10 gallons of passion in a five gallon bucket and you have to accept that it cuts both ways it can help you or it can very much hurt you absolutely um so great it's a great job i would say because you can win the national title there it is a place you can win the national title and ari i just had an idea let's hear because I think this dovetails with Jeff's question and with your discussion with Doug and Bill yesterday. In this era,

we need to make the list of the programs that can win the national title because we've had this discussion relative to the Lane Kiffin situation with Ole Miss in Florida, where I've said, I think you can win the national title at Ole Miss. Whereas you couldn't have said that 15 years ago. Auburn, you would have said, that 15 years ago, they did win the national title 15 years ago. But the list is grown of the programs where you can win a national title. I'm happy you brought them. It has always been one of

them, but now there are more. I'm happy you brought that up because I actually have been thinking a lot about this. As we did the Bill and Doug exercise yesterday, which is who can win the national title right now, we only used the teams that were playing well and were in position. in the season like if we would have done the I thought like what would this list look like if we did it in August and I think that you might make a case that 85% of teams now in theory could and I think that's a viewpoint in the big 10 in the SEC right yeah maybe even 90% of those maybe even 100 we just got done saying that if you can make the playoff if Indiana can anybody in those conferences I feel like if Indiana can win

the national title. And I wholeheartedly believe that Indiana could win the national title this year. I don't know if I believe that Indiana could beat Ohio State. I don't believe that anybody could beat Ohio State, but it could and maybe will happen. Guess what, buddy, we're probably going to get to see them play in Indianapolis. So yeah, but at the same time, they might not, like there are worlds too where you can win a national title without having to play them. So, but the question that I wanted to ask and pose to you, and I've been thinking about this a lot the last 24 hours is, in theory with what Indiana and Vanderbilt are doing, it has changed the paradox of how we view the sport without question.

Paradigm. Paradigm. Sorry, yes. Michigan did that for me. Washington did that for me. We have seen teams reach pinnacles that I didn't think were possible five years ago. But I wonder if in 10 years from now, with all of this new context and new information and new teams popping up, if at the end of the road, the next seven. national champions are still the same seven teams like when it's entirely possible somebody doesn't break through because you got to win three or four games in a row right and i think there might be a

huge like there's always been a huge gap between good enough and doing it like even the best teams in the country it's hard to like think about it ohio state went 10 years without winning a national title between 14 and 24 despite being one of the best three programs in the country over that Right. So the gap between being good enough in theory to do it and actually doing it is massive. And actually doing it, if Indiana is actually going to do it, they have to get through Ohio State this year. And even if they are built where they could have won it in another year or another time, it's going to be very difficult for them to actually do it. And then on top of that, go beat Oregon again. And they might play Oregon again in the playoff and lose by 30, the way that Oregon lost Ohio State last year for beating.

in the regular season like that could act yeah um and i wonder if the teams that still have the most best players are just going like there's more parity in the sense that anybody can beat anybody and anybody can make the playoff but i wonder if we're going to find out in 10 years that actually who can win the national title but the thing is if because it feels like ohio state is much more talented than than everybody else and this could look stupid in a month i don't know right now that's the thing on the wrong day ohio state could lose to another cfp type team so let's say it's the it's the rose bowl and Ohio State loses and they're out yeah then it's open for everybody everybody left in the tournament can win it yeah I want to look this up

on bed MGM real quick uh so can you just like sing or something for a second these eyes these eyes have seen no I can't do it it's just so bad my brother flew all the way from Scottsdale Arizona that sing that song for you when I yeah when I hit that high note it gets bad National Championship Futures is what I'm looking at. All right. The teams that are most likely to win it from an odd standpoint are Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State. Wait, Ohio State's third? No, no, I'm not doing it in order.

These are the top five. Okay. Because it's not in order on my light. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. So Indiana is in that mix. It's on the list. Wow. I think Indiana is third. Ohio State is two to one, which by the way, guys, is insane. They are two to one. So Indiana's odds to win the national title are currently better than Georgia's odds to win the national title.

They are. They're plus. Go back four years and tell someone that's going to happen in 2025 and watch their head explode. And I think part of that too is remaining schedule. Indiana doesn't have to play anybody that's ranked for the rest of the year. And, like, I think that their likelihood of getting into the playoff is much higher. And I think that takes into account. Like, it's, it's baked in. It is. It doesn't matter. There's, like, the fact that they are above Georgia in this exercise is mind-blowing to anyone two or three years ago.

Yeah. So I think that the blanket statement, and, like, I don't know if you think, too, like, if Indiana can do it, what does that say for North Carolina? What does that say for NC State? Is it a different equation? Because Indiana just has more money. Indiana can retain its coach for a level of money that maybe NC State

and also being the second best of the best team in the Big Ten means something different to being the best or the second best team in the ACC. Yeah. Well, being the best in the ACC and being the best in the Big Ten is the same.

Being second best in those is very different, which I think is where the difference comes in. Yeah. But like if you think that if Indiana can do it and that gives hope to everybody else in the SEC and the Big Ten, what does that mean

from a percentage standpoint of like How does that translate to teams that aren't in those two conferences? Well, how does it translate to when Arkansas is open and Auburn are open at the same time, which Arkansas is open, and Arkansas could possibly open Auburn by winning this weekend? Like, how different are the jobs now? Whereas there would have been no question. Like, if you were offered the Arkansas and the Auburn job 15 years ago, there would have been no question which job you would take. But what does Indiana being the third highest odds to win the national championship right now tell Louisville, if anything? If a Louisville is in the ACC, so I don't think it's the same.

It's not the same, but does Louisville have more hope as a result of Indiana's run than it did five years ago? Of course. Okay. Of course. Vanderbilt has more hope. Because I would make the case of- Georgia Tech has more hope. Right, all these other teams.

I would make the case that Louisville was further ahead, not make the case, it's a fact. Louisville was further ahead as a football program than Indiana five years ago, period. Oh, no question, no question. And then when they hired Brom, it was a slam dunk, and you knew this guy's going to make them even better, and he did. But this is a financial discussion, and until the ACC figures out how to wait, like, and I wonder what that means for programs like Clemson and Miami moving forward. the traditional powers from the ACC, Florida State, even. What does that say about them?

That's an off-season discussion, but I think that anybody in theory from any of the power conferences could win the national title now with the right, like Texas Tech, what if they could win it? Landis put Texas Tech on his list of teams that could win it this year.

And they might. Now, if they lose another game like they lost Arizona State, I would not put them on that list. They could still win the Big 12, even if they lose another game. I would not put them on that list if they can't run the table from this point forward. But, yeah, I mean, the way they were beating teams before that game, I don't doubt it. I was thinking the same thing.

So we will find out, Ari, there's one, before we go, one pick I'm really regretting from earlier this week. And, of course, our picks are locked in there, so there's nothing I can do about it. I pick Texas to cover at Mississippi State. I forgot what week it was. River, show everybody those uniforms. Mississippi State's breaking out the Wayne Madkin uniforms. This is the Wayne Madkin, Fred Smoot, Porkchop, Womack era uniform, the interlocking MSU, the late 90s.

This is a beautiful uniform. This should be their permanent uniform. They should never, ever change it again. They should just change this back to their permanent uniform right now. Never change it again. Ari, Mississippi State. by a million, even though I've already picked Texas to cover, and I've picked, there's nothing I can do about it. When Mississippi State now wins because they're wearing these beautiful

uniforms, I will lose and you will win because you have Mississippi State. But, oh my God, look at those uniforms. Yeah, I wish that we could do, maybe next week, we won't do it today so you can have time. Maybe next week you can have PIC show on Monday and then on Thursday show. we get one chance to change our mind on one game. And he and Ari regret. Yeah, I mean, because the bets haven't been placed yet. Like, you can out, you can over bet it. Like, there are

the lines change. Yeah, of course. There are times where like I'll lock something in on Monday on our show and I'll be like on Thursday and be like shit. Like, so I wish I could change. Rivers says we need to call it the mulligan of the week. I like it. Okay. And then maybe there will be none. It doesn't mean you have to have

one, but if you have one, it might be an interesting way to break down a game to heading into the weekend. So, yeah, no, great time, great mailbag, great questions. And I love thinking about my favorite topics are the big philosophical questions about, like, the entire sport. And, yeah, I love how wide open it is now. It's going to be a hell of a weekend. Let's get ready. We got another pack noon slate.

Again, USF Memphis is going to be a lot of fun. I'm intrigued by UCLA Indiana. I know R. you said, do you think Indiana is going to cover? but I'm intrigued. And then of course, 1245 Eastern Time in the basically the old JP game slot, Auburn at Arkansas, which has its own level of weirdness and what does it all mean? And then, of course, at night, Texas A&M, LSU, which could be a meltdown type situation if A&M goes to Tiger Stadium and wins.

This is going to be a hell of weekend. You got BYU going to Ames. You got Michigan against Sparty and East Lansing. You got Missouri at Vandy, the Game Day game. Just your average normal season where game days at Vanderbilt. We'll talk to you on Saturday.