Andy & Ari On3 - Jim Harbaugh BACK on the Sidelines | Championship Week Picks | Alabama-Georgia | Washington-Oregon

Episode Date: November 28, 2023

It's time for our Championship Week picks, and we bring on Patrick Meagher from the Sharp Money show joins to give his picks. First, we examine Michigan as Jim Harbaugh will make his return to the sidelines this weekend against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.These picks are sponsored by Fanduel! Visit Fanduel.com/Staples and use the promo code Staples. Right now, new customers get $150 in Bonus Bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet! Thank you to FanDuel* for delivering the lines for this week's slate of games!This episode is also sponsored by Rhoback, makers of the most comfortable hoodies, Q-zips and polos on the planet. Visit Rhoback.com and use the code STAPLES for 20 percent off your first order.(0:00-3:04) Intro - Coaching Carousel News(3:05-15:11) Clayton Sayfie from the Wolverine Joins(15:12-18:37) Championship Week Picks - Patrick Meagher Introduction(18:38-25:29) Pac 12 Championship: Washington vs Oregon(25:30-33:15) C-USA Championship: New Mexico St vs Liberty(33:16-42:05) AAC Championship: SMU vs Tulane(42:06-48:43) Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs Texas(48:44-53:50) ACC Championship: Louisville vs Florida State(53:51-59:53) Big Ten Championship: Michigan vs Iowa(59:54-1:08:49) SEC Championship: Georgia vs Alabama(1:08:50-1:10:16) ConclusionWant to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube!https://youtu.be/0dN8jO_u0t0Must be 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas StarCasino, LLC. First online real money wager only. $5 pregame moneyline wager required. First online real money wager only. $10 firstdeposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visitccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP inLouisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia, or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope ishere. Visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call [phone] for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or textHOPENY in New York

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. Happy Monday night. Great news, everybody. There was a guy in the chat on Sunday night show was very worried that we were jumping the gun on Mike Elko to Texas A&M because, you know, some people jumped the gun on Mark Stoops to Texas A&M. We didn't do that, though. So happy to report that Texas A&M officially introduced Mike Elko as its head coach on Monday. We feel very vindicated here at Andy Staples on three. I hope that commenter is now less worried. Hope so. Glad we got that squared away. Little more coaching carousel on Monday. Rick Stock still fired at Middle Tennessee State after what feels like a million

years. It was the fourth longest tenured head coach in the FBS, so that job is now open. Murfreesboro, a lovely place to live. I think there'll be some good applicants for that job, but it does seem to be slowing down a little bit Duke's got to make a hire now we're still waiting on Indiana but we're having a little bit of a lull in the coaching carousel and then the next wave will come as new coaches fill out their staffs and players from schools that coaches just left or coaches are headed to start to enter the transfer portal. There's going to be a lot of news, but this is a week of very important games. It's championship week and we got a pick show for you today. Patrick Maher, the host of sharp money on

the Vegas sports and information network will join us to educate all of us, especially me on what the numbers actually mean, the spreads, the totals, and what the key points are. When you see a line moving, where should you pay special attention? Patrick is great about that stuff, great at breaking it down. Even if you're not a gambler, he will help you better understand how this stuff works. And I do think it's important to know how it works. And I think that the spread as a way of looking at the matchups and as a way of looking at the game's history is important. Whether or not you put money on the games, I think that stuff is very educational. So we'll talk to Patrick about that shortly.

But first, Jim Harbaugh is back on the field this week at Michigan. Jim Harbaugh coaching the Wolverines against Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. Obviously, Michigan's a heavy favorite. They should be able to win this game. I was at Jim Harbaugh's press conference on Monday. He's very happy to be back. He's nominating Michigan men. Whole lot going on. Clayton Safey from the Wolverine joined me on a very snowy day in Ann Arbor to talk about what Jim Harbaugh said, what Sharon Moore said, and where the Wolverines are as they head into a week where Jim Harbaugh is back on the sidelines. Joined by Clayton Safey from a snowy Ann Arbor in front of a snow-covered Bo Schimbechler. Clayton, what do you think Bo would have said about Jim Harbaugh's declaration? He called it a nomination?

That Sharon Moore is now a Michigan man? As I said, the coaches, the staff, especially Coach Sharone Moore, called a great game, coached the offensive line, and made the decisions as the head coach. I'm not saying that I'm in a position of granting who a Michigan man is, or who isn't, or who a Michigan legend is, or is not the maker of those two lists. But I have nominated people before, and I nominate, uh, Sharon Moore, uh, as a, as a Michigan legend. He's been nominated. So someone has to confirm, is that the Supreme court or,

or the Washtenaw County court? Well, I mean, they didn't go to the Washtenaw County court when they had the chance. They decided not to. We know how they ruled on the vacuum cleaners, but that's, that's pretty much it. Yeah. That's a whole HOA. I hate HOAs. So, well, it doesn't, everyone. But it is interesting because Sharon Moore, when you think about it, his place in Michigan lore is secure. Yeah. There obviously is probably going to be some more to Sharon Moore and Michigan's story.

But the fact that he, as the acting coach, beats Ohio State in the way that he did with keeping the promise to call the most aggressive game anybody's ever seen yeah that if you're gonna do it that's how you do it so we talked after the Penn State game and then there was the Maryland game and there were a lot of complaints from the Michigan fans and I even thought there were a couple points especially Maryland that they called it a little bit too conservatively and it was like okay Sharon's got a lot on his plate you know he's the head coach. There's pressure on him.

Like, he's got to win these games. That may have been a blessing in disguise because that week when he's sitting there like, okay, we got to call it a little bit more aggressively. And it's Ohio State, like he said on Saturday. I mean, they've been preparing for this, and they've had calls ready for this all year. I mean, you're working on stuff in fall camp that you probably have an idea is going to come for this game. So the fourth downs I mean absolutely massive and you compare that with how Ryan Day called the game for Ohio State

and it was a little bit different a little bit more I'm not going to say scared people Ohio State fans are that I've seen on Twitter it's really the one situation at the end of the half yes felt that way but everything else felt fairly normal sure for an Ohio State game sure and I think people are kind of going back to last year when it was a little more. They thought he should have gone for a couple of fours. But regardless, the way Michigan did it, the way Sharon Moore did it, and we just talked off air about this,

but when you're the guy making the call that you're going to go for fourth and then you are the one making the play call, that could be a pretty dynamic combo right there. Yeah, you have to make – because a lot of times when you have a more traditional situation with a head coach who makes the big picture decisions and a coordinator who then calls the plays the head coach gives the yay or nay right on the and of course the play caller

has the play ready to go if you if the head coach says yes but you have to make the yay or nay decision and then have the specific play ready in that situation which he did and you know that there are some good play calling head coaches out there, Mike Norvell at Florida state's in position to maybe make the playoff. Uh, we've seen Lincoln Riley do it, but there's also some people who've not been able to handle both roles. Right. And it's impressive that he's been able to do it as just his fourth game as a head coach. Um, so in, in, like you said, I don't think the history is here over. I think Sharon Moore will probably be Michigan's next head coach, whether that's next year or in five years.

Well, and let's talk about that because Jim Harbaugh is back this week. He's going to be coaching the team on the field at the Big Ten championship game and then beyond as they go into the rest of the postseason. But for Sharon Moore, obviously what people saw on Saturday and in really the previous weeks, he's ready to be the head coach of a big-time college football program right now. I don't know that there's even a job out there that would be worth looking at when you are potentially in line to get Michigan.

I agree. His name's been thrown out there for Indiana by some national guys or whatever, and I think that's fair. If you're Indiana, you give them a call. Absolutely. If you're anyone with an opening at a Power 5 right now, maybe not like an A&M or whatever, obviously, but the Twitter people would just kind of veto that anyway.

But if you're in Indiana, you give him a call. But I agree with you. I mean, he loves it here. He came here in 2017 and has just risen and risen and risen to now this point where he was the head coach for Michigan-Ohio State, and I think he understands probably what's in the future, or at least wants to wait out a couple more years. Well, I would at least wait out this offseason because there's a lot of factors at play. You've got Jim Harbaugh's tried to get an NFL job the last two years. There are going to be

multiple NFL openings that Jim Harbaugh might actually be an attractive candidate for. And then you've also got the NCAA stuff. You've got what will happen in terms of the first case which is not closed yet right and then the sign stealing case which is still very much open yeah so if they get into a situation where there's a suspension that's long enough that you can't keep either can't keep Jim Harbaugh or he's almost not there well you've got Sharon Moore. You do. And I think that's probably the route they will go. But, you know, it's kind of down the road at this point even a little bit. It's funny when –

Well, I mean, that sign-stealing thing, you think about the – like the Bill Self case lasted six years. So we don't know that that's going to resolve in the offseason. It's expedited. It seems like the way – it's unprecedentedly expedited yeah if that's a word um but you still could take a while i mean you could still look at court cases coming out of this if they decide to go yeah uh that sort of thing so let's talk jim harbaugh he's back he said he never left last night well yeah but he wasn't there yeah i know he wasn't there

on saturday he's back but it we as as we talked about, Sharon Moore calls the offensive plays. Yeah. Jesse Mentor calls the defensive plays. This is a person coming back to make the big picture decisions. Do you think that changes? It certainly sounded from what Jim Harbaugh said, like that Sharon Moore made big picture decisions very much how Jim Harbaugh feels like he would have made them in the same situation.

Yeah. So I think there – I mean, Jim Harbaugh has been, especially the last few years, early on in his tenure, a little bit more conservative. And I think probably a lot of that had to do with some of the personnel not quite being yet what they wanted. But last few years, he's been aggressive. Like I think I was saying this during the game too. I think he would have gone for those. I think they would have ran basically the same stuff. I've always felt that he's a very much analytically forward, you know, when the book says go, you're going kind of person. Yeah, for sure. And when he feels like there was a – they went for fourth and one,

I think, at Wisconsin in 2021 from their own like 34 on the opening drive of the game, and someone asked him after, what made you go for that? He said, just a look in our players' eyes. So he also – he goes off both, I think. Well, and that's what he was saying. I asked him about Sharon Moore, and when in the process of getting to know Sharon Moore, did he feel like he'd be ready for this? Obviously, you're never ready for what they've had in the past month or so.

Right. But if you had to have someone else do it, he clearly had him in mind as the person. And I said, what was it? And he said he trusts the players and the players trust him. And I thought you saw a perfect example of that in the first half with the three fourth downs. Mm hmm. No doubt. And it did feel like it was pretty obvious that he was he was going to tap short on more in this job. And it felt like pretty obvious what they were going to do in a lot of those situations was going to be what Jim Harbaugh would have done. And like he said, it's exactly how he would have called it.

And it felt like Jim Harbaugh's team on Saturday, even though he wasn't here. So they've got to play Iowa. They have to win this game to get in the college football playoff probably. They're going to be heavily favored. Yep. Do you think, though, is this the calmest week of the past month and a half oh yeah oh it probably feels like the most normal we're watching the guys go into the facility behind us but i'd imagine it feels like the most normal they've had in a while yeah sounds like the

NCAA in terms of their investigation is backed off for a little bit which makes sense i mean it was thanksgiving last week and the biggest game of the year now you move on big 10 championship we may not have been if they lose that game we were not standing here um you know and now it's like okay we can we can go into a regular game week they guys have their coach back and they're familiar with this spot too going to indy you know the first time they did this a lot of people were asking how are they going to come down from this emotional high feels more normal this year beating Ohio State. Like, even from a fan-based perspective, talking to people, now I think they're ready for the next challenge,

and they know that 15-0 is kind of more the goal. Well, and also, this is their third time doing this. They're guys who've only seen this their entire career. So this becomes normal. Right. This is the new normal. You'd have to be a fifth-year senior at Michigan to have lost to Ohio State at this point.

Yeah, I'm hearing a lot of that from both sides of the rivalry. And you'd have to be a fifth-year senior at Michigan to have lost to Ohio State at this point. Yeah, I'm hearing a lot of that from both sides of the rivalry. And you'd have to be a fifth-year senior at Ohio State to be Michigan. Exactly. So, yeah, it feels like they're ready to go. There's probably not going to be any surprises this week. I realize as I say that, given what's happened. It's not going to age well. But we'll see.

It's Ann Arbor. It's snowy. Clayton Safey. Bo Schembechler. Blocking and tackling is what it comes down to. That's what Bo would have said. You know what? Came down to that.

Bo's right. Bo's exactly right. And, you know, Jim Harbaugh, with the further Bo quoteage, the team, the team, the team, he said, this is the team. Incredible speech. I asked about that on Saturday when some of the guys were talking about it i mean and they said every coach came up and gave this speech i mean this this feels as much like that as as possible and it seems like there are always things that go on throughout a season or whatever once you get to that week last week everybody comes together you just want to play your role or whatever like if

you're a donovan edwards you're not going to be Blake Corum on Saturday, even though you were the legend the year before. But it seems like everyone buys in and that's what they need the rest of the way is everyone kind of starring in their roles as they go forward, because I think this team does have a shot to win the whole thing. You know, Clayton, I say those who stay will be champions standing here. Those who stay will be cold. So we're going to go get warm. Sure. We'll talk to you later. Thank you to Clayton safety and the motion, but go statue for that wonderful segment that I can look back upon now and be glad because I am in the warmth again. I'm not built for cold. If you hadn't noticed that already, I'm not built for cold. Next up, we got the picks. Patrick Maher from the Vegas Sports and Information Network joins us. But first, let me tell you about FanDuel. Go to FanDuel.com

slash staples and get yourself signed up. It is the easiest way to wager on all the games, all the lines and the totals that we're going to talk about with Patrick. You get them from FanDuel. We'll talk about a lot of very interesting lines this week. So go to FanDuel.com slash Staples. If you make a $5 winning Moneyline bet, so basically you bet on that team to win, and they win $5, you will get $150 in guaranteed bonus bets. So go to FanDuel.com slash staples.

You can play full games, spread, totals, first quarter, spread and total, halftime, spread and total. These are things that matter, and Patrick's going to explain to you why they matter so much, and especially in some of these games, like the Big Ten Championship is one that Michigan, Iowa game. You know, we always pick the Iowa total, but the first quarter total, the first half total, those things may matter quite a bit. You may find some value in there this week. So go to fan dual.com slash staples, get yourself signed up, make a $5 winning Moneyline bet, and get $150 in guaranteed bonus bets at FanDuel,

the best sports book in America. On to the picks. For our final pick show of the season, I've been saving this one. I've been saving this one. Patrick Maher from the Vegas Sports and Information Network. Sharp money. That's the show he hosts.

If you have not listened in, you're missing out. And here's the deal. The reason I brought Patrick on is because he's the one who started helping me figure out how all this stuff worked. Point spreads, parlays, totals, all that stuff. Because I used to go on his show back when he worked on Mad Dog Radio at Sirius XM, and I worked on the college channel. And Patrick would bring me on because Patrick went to South Carolina, is from Michigan.

We'll get into how you wound up in Columbia. But wanted to talk some college football, and he's on a channel where they're like, what about the jets well also i wanted if you remember and thanks for having me andy i i remember maybe we can settle down a little bit because i saw last night you were getting loose and fighting with literally everybody on twitter we just need to take a breath, take a step back. Okay. Now I remember, and this was a long time ago, we're talking like 15, 16, 17, when you used to come on the show. And I was, I was a degenerate then that's before the proliferation of legalization and fan duels and draft Kings, of course I was a degenerate. So I brought you on and I'm like, dude, okay.

So I understand Texas, Oklahoma state, but let's start talking about the number here. And you're like, gosh, you're obsessed with these lines. You're obsessed with the lines. And then a couple of years later, as we saw the momentum starting to kind of ominously come over the hill there, you were starting to talk point spreads as well. So I was very proud of you. Well, and the thing is, even as that was coming and i live in a state which is kind of

slow on the uptake on all this stuff but i realized how educational it is like spreads as a historical document are very interesting how coaches perform against the spread how particular programs perform against the spread how how a team in one particular rivalry may perform against the spread and that's the one one particular rivalry may perform against the spread and that's the one thing you know talk listening to you and talking to the some of the guys that you bring on like it's it's interesting how history matters with this stuff even as the people change let's use an example and so much about sports betting is it's a puzzle and it comes down to the number and betting the right number timing. I always say timing, Andy and temperament timing,

timing, the market and temperament, not to get too crazy. When you go on a losing streak, we call it going on tilt. You don't want to get crazy and start chasing cash. So timing and temperament, but also I always joke with people like you, who know more about the sport than I'll ever know. Oftentimes, those are the worst bettors, because there's paralysis and knowing too much about these teams. It's almost suggestive. Like you and I would always fight about the head coaches. People understand that Andy Staples on three, he has relationships with all these dudes now he has to keep a separation there but there's a relationship so sometimes you can fall into

a suggested trap let's use two games as an example for championship week to kind of start with the number you do realize that Oregon of course in Washington Allegiant Stadium on Friday night, you do realize that number's up to nine and a half. I do, and it was six and a half four weeks ago when they started putting out preliminaries. This number closed at Washington. This number closed three, and of course, Washington won by three. And we can talk about how we got here. I was talking weeks ago, maybe a month ago,

because we could kind of see this coming, potentially a rematch in the Pac-12 championship game. And I think everybody wanted it because most people have Georgia and Oregon as their two best in the country. And that we can start talking about Michigan and Washington and Texas. But this game in particular, I was talking to a guy that runs a book in Vegas. And I said, if these two teams were to play again, what would you make the number? And he said, honestly, I'm going to make it a touchdown. And I said, you lost your freaking mind. You're going to make this a touchdown. There's no chance. Not only is it a touchdown, we're almost to doubles. That's an insane overcorrection. That's a what? 12 and a half point overcorrection or correction from where we sat October 13th when

they played at Washington. That's a ridiculous line move. So let's talk about this game, though, because if we've been watching the teams play since they played, Washington has lived dangerously practically every week. Oregon has just routed everybody they've played. And I feel like that's where everybody's coming from, that they feel like, okay, there were these three fourth down plays in this game. If Oregon gets any one of those, they win the game.

And so if they play again on a neutral site and everything else is equal, they're probably going to get one of those. But then that doesn't explain the line because they still wouldn't cover this number. No, I'm going to tell you right now before we even talk about the analysis i will be taking the nine and a half now i'm looking at the market and i have a live screen while we're doing the show i'm looking at the market right now and every we call it blanket so everybody's sitting nine and a half draft kings yesterday was sitting nine i think we might see a 10. Understand when betting, there are key

numbers. Three is the key number when betting. The probability of these games landing on three is higher than any other number that goes both for college and the NFL. And then you get to seven, then you get to six, then you get up to tens. Okay. And I'm looking right now, I think we could see a 10 in this matchup, which is ludicrous that point it's principle i'm betting the number okay we can talk about washington being outgained by washington state and outgained by oregon state and giving up 515 to usc tina know their last 19 last year they went to eugene beat Oregon when Oregon was ranked six, 37, 34. Oh, by the way, Washington, and I don't know how they're doing it, Andy. Okay.

They're pulling it out of there, whatever, but they beat Texas in the bowl game last year. DeBoer is a hell of a coach. I'm not, there is no chance. I'm laying almost doubles with Oregon in this matchup. And I think Oregon's the better team be clear. Well, and this is what I keep coming back to with Washington and Oregon is I almost don't care what's happened in between I I picked Oregon

the first time around because I thought Oregon was the better team I still think Oregon is the better team but I'm I'm a big styles make fights guy, and I feel like Washington can still score on Oregon just like they did last time. I think Oregon can win this game, but I have a hard time winning by double digits. Like, that's tough. So I'm with you. I think Oregon's going to win the Pac-12. I think Oregon is going to make the playoff. I think Washington's going to cover.

100%. There's no – I mean, and I want to use Georgia. After we get done with this one, I want to use Georgia and Alabama just because the contrast or juxtaposition of the number, if you don't mind, after this game. But let's stick on this game just for a little bit. I mean, it's ridiculous. When the guy told – when the bookmaker told me he was going to lay seven

with Oregon in a rematch. Now, this is a month and a half ago ridiculous I assumed it would be four and a half Oregon just to give you an idea now that's not my true number my assumption was this game was going to be four and a half five to almost be sitting 10 right now that's a disrespect that I haven't seen in a while you want to take a stop at the total? Right now, we're looking at 67 on the total. Of course, 69 points were scored in October. I actually do like the first half over. The first half over is, excuse me, the first half total is 33 and a half.

Remember, in that matchup earlier this year, they slowed down in the second half as far as scoring. Well, and so so have the the matchups since then like you go back to Washington Utah Washington gives up a ton of points in the first half Utah doesn't even score in the second half like it definitely feels like Washington's defense settles in and figure some stuff out I do think there's a little bit and again we all love Lanning I know you love Lanning there's no reason to believe the guy's not going to be a superstar and by the way I think he's going to stay at Oregon uh but the

coaching advantage is DeBoer DeBoer and if you can discuss this I'm sure you talked about it here on three uh the that was the difference for a lot of people the in-game decisions in October it felt like Lanning tightened up a bit. The board is not going to tell you that the board went forward on fourth and short on his own 29, just this past Saturday. Like he's got a good feel of it. Remember that the first, the first game was landing going forward on fourth down three times and not

getting it any of the three. And again, any one of those, they win, especially the last one the last one they just take these if they get it if I'm landing I would do the same thing over again and they're going to win this time if they do that like they're not going to go oh for six in those situations across two games it's not going to happen so but you brought me on to talk about betting and that all I'm trying to tell you is I think Oregon's the better team. And I think Oregon wins this football game. I think they win.

So I'm looking at potentially getting 10 points. So, again, it'll be interesting because when these numbers open, they get manipulated. And so by the time – and most of the public, Andy, 90% of the public is going to bet five minutes before this game kicks off on Friday. It'll just be interesting as we sit here on a Monday, how the number gets manipulated up until Friday. It'll be fascinating because it'll go up, it'll go down. I'll be curious as soon as it hits 10 sharp money, the sharp better professional betters will immediately buy it.

And that means they'll immediately start betting Washington and it'll drop back down to nine and a half. That's why timing is so important. And this is why I had you on. Now, the other reason I had you on is to talk about games like New Mexico State and Liberty in the Conference USA Championship game. No, I will tell you right now, there are a few people out there

who maybe have watched these teams play quite a bit. Most people have not. Most people watch New Mexico State beat Auburn, and they may have caught Liberty on a couple weeknight games. This is not a game where you're going to get a ton of expert analysis. So that's what I know. You guys get calls every day, not just on college games like this, but on all kinds of different sporting events where you're being asked to evaluate these numbers without a lot of team information. This one's interesting too, because Liberty has been a favorite of at least 10 and a half.

So we're sitting right now on a Monday morning, we're sitting in the Mexico State Liberty. You know, I'm seeing an 11 in the market, 10 and a half mostly, and 54 on the total. The, let me see now, the three times, at least 10 and a half point favor to more Liberty is two wins. So they're two and three. They've been favored at least 10 and a half or more, five times. They're two and three ATS. That gives you an idea.

Liberty is a dominant team in conference, but these post spreads are ridiculous they're just two and three with a number this big I would say the first my initial blush on this game uh New Mexico State more of an under team this year but Liberty uh they've gone over seven of 11 so that total is specifically i immediately i thought my first blush was over the 54 felt like i had written down 57 as far as my number but again these are teams they haven't seen you haven't seen in place so you immediately just start dissecting the number yeah and and so here here's the deal jerry kill new me State, kind of been through everything, seen everything. Again, just went to Auburn and won 31 to 10. This is a very well-coached team. They're very sound. They're going to play against a team that their offense is based around the triple option.

Now, here's the thing. When you have a sound, well-coached defense playing as a triple option concept type team, you would expect a lower scoring output from that triple option type team because you're fundamentally sound, you're going to hit the people you're supposed to hit every play, and you're going to make them work to score. That's what I think happens in this game.

That's why I feel like that number is very high. And to kind of piggyback on what you're saying, they played a funky offense in Jacksonville State. And I think it combined for 30. Wasn't that 2017? Yeah, I think that combined. Let me just see. Yeah, 2017.

So 37. I don't know. I wrote down 57 when this game first opened. To be honest with you, I'm always looking to take a number. So if I were to bet this game, I'll probably, and that's another thing for your listeners. It's okay to lay off a game. If I were to bet this and there's a question,

I'm always going to take a big number like 10 and a half. Yeah. Yeah. It's well, here's the deal. Let me throw another wild card at you. I don't know how this makes you feel so diego pavia the quarterback in new mexico state if you saw that auburn game you know this dude's a little bit swaggy um very swaggy video came out of him uh urinating on the new mexico logo

inside of new mexico's practice facility before they played New Mexico. That's the type of person we're dealing with. This man has no regard for human life. This is going to be wild. And Caden Salter on the other side, pretty good quarterback for Liberty. But you got a dude who will do that before a rivalry game. Lord only knows what he does before a conference championship game. Hey, by the way, Liberty's got a pretty good coach.

Would you agree? Oh, Jamie Chadwell is fantastic. I believe I sang his praises quite a bit when I've been on with you when he was at Coastal Carolina. And you as a South Carolina grad should understand the achievement of winning at North Greenville and at Charleston Southern and at Coastal Carolina. So, yeah, I'm a big fan of Jamie Chadwell. I do think he's, you know, he's, he was in the mix at Mississippi State. He decided to stay at Liberty. They pay him really well. He's in a good spot.

He's got the most resources of any team in the conference, which is not what he had at Coastal. So I, yeah, i think this is a great coaching matchup because i love jerry kill i you know you know jerry kill old school big time minnesota exactly and and you know if he hadn't had the seizure disorder he's probably still coaching at minnesota you know it this is this is a guy who knows what he's doing. So I can't wait to see these two guys go at it. Well, the reason I brought up Jamie Chadwell is I don't know. And you're from South. People don't know that Andy Staples is from South Carolina.

He's from Columbia. And first off, it's Greenville, not Greenville. So let's correct that. And secondly, I don't know if there's any news out of Columbia, but have we heard an announcement about Shane Beamer? Shane Beamer's fine. No, Jamie Chadwell is the answer in Columbia. And let me explain why.

This is year three, and the way he comports himself is just embarrassing. Now, this hiring cycle already, Jonathan Smith at Michigan State, freaking home run. You and I talked about that. Felt like the right fit. Mike Alko, I can't believe the stoops dalliance alco to a and m only makes sense levy to mississippi state which is the worst job in the sec beamer year three five and seven i i don't know about you and i know you like beamer but the third

year after that kind of the recruiting cycle year three is a big year for these college coaches. And to take a step back like this, not a great look for Shane Beamer. No, it's not. And, and, but you kind of knew it was going to happen in that division. You know, Kentucky was, was maybe going to be a little bit better, but you didn't think they were going to be Clemson again. So yeah, I go ahead and give me more excuses. Go ahead. you didn't think they were going to beat Clemson again. So, yeah. Go ahead. Give me more excuses.

Go ahead. How about him throwing his literal players under the bus repeatedly throughout the season? Well, right. And there's no excuse for any of that. And he will start next season on the hot seat, just like Billy Napier will at Florida. And Shane, I think, understands that. And yes, Jamie Chadwell pulling out of the Mississippi State search,

my first thought was, okay, is he waiting for Beamer if Beamer gets fired next year? Yeah. So there's also the way Mack Brown ended the season. And I know he said he's coming back, but does that change after the way they lost to NC State? It doesn't sound like it's happening, but that's another one that you got to you got to wonder about, because, again, Jamie Chadwell, all his experience before was in in the state of South Carolina. But if you can work in South Carolina, you can also work in North Carolina.

And if that job opened up, that's something I think Jamie Chadwell would probably be very interested in. So, uh, yeah, I, I hate, I know the Liberty fans hate this because that's when Hugh freeze was there. All of, all of the talk was what's Hugh freeze's next step. He goes to Auburn. It'll be the same way with Jamie Chadwell until he finally gets that power five job with all due respect, starting a sentence with, I know the Liberty fans dot dot dot. Let's be fair. Okay, let's be fair. It's Liberty. They're a small but passionate group, Patrick. They reach out every time I mention Jamie Chadwell. They're like, he's not

leaving. I was like, okay. Let's talk about we're going to talk the AAC and I want to talk about that because I actually do believe now Willie Fritz is a monster. However, he's a little bit older. He would be great at one of these big jobs. But Rep Lashley is going to get one of them.

Right. And he's 40 years old, two years at SMU. And what I like about Lashley, and by the way, this number sitting four, four and a half SMU catching. I love I made this a pick them. A pick them is essentially even. So is even. I love SMU catching points I love, I made this a pick them, a pick them as essentially even so is even, I love SMU catching points in this matchup. Now, again, whether or not Preston stone goes injured against Navy, that's a question,

but Kevin Jennings who filled in actually played it played pretty well this year when he did. And some spot times. Now here's the thing about Lashley. You think about him as an offensive guy, there ain't no one conference. The key to SMU this year, Andy, has been their defense. They have an elite secondary, also a great pass rush. And Tulane, while a running team last year, obviously, Tajay Spe pass rush that Pratt faces this year. And two of his best weapons didn't play last week, that being Keys and Jackson. So I'm not sure why this number. I'm guessing it's the quarterback questions for SMU. But as I look right now, just to give you an idea on the market, we can take a look and it's sitting still, think four four and a half i love smu in

this spot yeah it's four right now yeah and if you look at if you look at smu they they played tough in norman that that game was never all that close but they never let it get out of control did not let oklahoma explode on them i don't know how they lost to TCU looking back, but they've won every game since then. And they've definitely been, been scoring in bunches. So I, I like this too, by the way, I, I don't know if I ever made clear who I'm picking in the, in the conference USA championship game. I'm going to, I'm going to take a New Mexico state to cover. I think Liberty still wins, but I'll take New Mexico state to cover in that one. Yeah, that's a layoff for me, but like I said, if I had to pick it, I'd take the 10.5. For some reason, my number

was high as far as the over-under. We call them totals. That was high for me, but I think the funky offense angle from you is a good job. Do you like the SMU play here? I like it. I do, because here's the thing with Tulane. Until that UTSM, you play here. I like it. I do, because here's the thing with Tulane. Until that UTSA game, Tulane had been living fairly dangerously the last few. And playing close games against teams like East Carolina. And I don't know if last week was just a correction. But UTSA committed four turnovers in the first half that

was more UTSA it was it was out of control for UTSA pretty much from the get-go so I don't know that last week is real instructive in terms of figuring out what happens this week but they you know the team that scrapes by East Carolina scrapes by Tulsa I yeah, yeah, I think I may take, I think I'd take SMU in this game too, because if you're going to give me some points and, and really look at those games, Tulane one, you know, three point win East Carolina, two point win against rice, two point win against Tulsa. They've been living very dangerously. And this is the best team they've played in a while 100 it's going to be the best pass rush best secondary they've played and i like pratt but i think he struggles against this defense and that's the thing with lashley you know it's funny we're talking about these coaches

i mean this is year two for lashley at smu and known as an offensive guy to have a defense playing this well i just to me that's somebody i'd keep an eye on because year two think about it kirby who i know we're going to talk georgia and that is such a good teaching moment as far as a perceptive number and remember the betting markets are driven by perception and we'll get to the alabama georgia number here in a second but i believe in year two kir Kirby won 11. You know what? I think he won 11, 12 games in year two and hasn't looked back since. Remember the national title game in year two. Yeah. 13 wins.

So national championship. Again, I usually give a coach three years in college football just for that cycle to continue. But year two, I'm just looking at what Lashley has done. And Willie Fritz, I think he's 63 years old, so he's probably comfortable there at Tulane, but he's a hell of a coach as well. Well, no, I think he'd be interested in Houston if they talked to him. If Lance Leipold were to leave Kansas for any reason,

I know Willie would be interested in that one because that's where he's from. So it's not entirely out of the question that Willie might get one of these jobs but but you're right about Rhett and you know it's it's funny because Rhett was kind of the wunderkind he was the OC at Auburn 20s but I do think which we're talking about where they play good defense I think that's one thing you learn when you come up at a place like Auburn and that's where Rhett spent a lot of his formative years with Gus Malzahn they had to play great defense Gus was an offensive guy but they wouldn't survive a place like Auburn. And that's where Rhett spent a lot of his formative years with Gus Malzahn. They had to play great defense. Gus was an offensive guy, but they wouldn't survive in that division without playing great defense. And so I think Rhett has taken that and understands

how to build a roster, understands how to practice. And we talk about this with Lincoln Riley all the time. Does he understand how to practice where you're going to give your defense a chance to learn to be physical and be physical down the stretch doesn't look like it Rhett seems like they've got that sort of thing figured out so I'm with you I think Rhett Lashley is going to be a hot name in the coaching carousel if it's not this year it'll be next year let's let's move on let. Can I just follow up on one thing that you said there? Go for it. Yeah, yeah. This is your show.

I apologize. Andy and I have done so many shows. You're a main host. You're used to driving the train. I understand. Andy and I have done so many shows together. We just interrupt each other. I will say this about, you talked about defense.

It's not necessarily a given just because of the Auburn system and Lashley. Now think about this. Jimbo, when Jimbo lost Elko, he went completely spiraled. Yes. Right? Elko, with Elko, Jimbo was very good at A&M. Elko leaves and the program absolutely spirals. So not necessarily a given.

And then just to piggyback on your point, just to put it on your radar, something weird is brewing here in Los Angeles with Lincoln Riley. It's weird. You and I talked about it on the other show. Again, a lot of weird stuff has happened over the last 10 years. Sarkeesian got blessed. The dude got healthy. But we remember what happened with him.

I'm telling you, it's only year two. But the Riley situation here in Los Angeles is starting to get weird that's all set just watch it no I I'm I'm with you a hundred percent because they're not recruiting in the way that I thought they they would they're not recruiting at the level I thought they would and that part is a big red flag warning sign because it is it means that people are looking at the situation and going hmm I don't know if that's great for me long term and you know maybe maybe he quiets it down maybe he has a good defensive coordinator hire I think they're going to have to get a quarterback out of the portal for next season starting QB maybe we know a little more once

we know who that is but I'm'm with you. I think people are looking at it long-term and saying, I don't see a bright future here. And I, if you'd have told me that we'd be saying that two years after he took the job, I would think you were nuts. By the way, it's the best job in America. Like I'm not even a USC guy. The best job in America is Kentucky because they'll pay you $9 million a year and they won't try to fire you when you win seven games. I think you talked about it last night on your show. The Stoops, the Allianz.

I was legitimately floored and nothing at this point. It's funny what you said about Auburn, Alabama, because remember Auburn closed Iron Bowl on Saturday. Alabama closed 13 and a half and you came on my show and you're like dude don't work like the numbers ridiculous because crazy things happen here I'm like a school just paid Auburn millions to come in and wax them by 30 but we just talked about and yeah and I'm the grandma I went on your show and said that and then I'm the dumbass who picked Alabama to cover on this show I Well, I just would like to say that you did caution me,

because I'm like, why am I not going to lay this price with Alabama? And you're like, because weird things happen in the Iron Bowl, and touche, they certainly do. And we had Jake Crane as the guest picker last week. Jake, lots of history with Auburn, knows the program very well, and he's like, Auburn's going to cover in this game, no question about it. He was right. So let us move's going to cover in this game. No question about it. He was right. So let us move on to the to the Big 12 championship game, Oklahoma State against Texas.

And this is one where Texas the other day against Texas Tech look like the team that we've expected Texas to be since they beat Alabama. We have not seen that every week. So I don't know what Texas we're getting. This Texas team is favored by 13 and a half. They are definitely two touchdowns better than Oklahoma State from a roster standpoint. 100%. That said, when Mike Gundy's coaching on the other sideline,

I get a little worried. See, you said that kindly what you meant to say was when Sarkeesian is coaching on the sideline where he's laying two touchdowns you should be worried because these are the games that Sarkeesian coughs up all over himself I'm not I'm not as worried about Sark anymore I I with you like going into the season I would have said the same thing but it's more it's more of an appreciation of gundy than doubts about sark in this situation mismatch and wits i'm sorry no offense but gundy does not again they were trailing to byu in a game they had to have like big time like this is so much better than them from a roster. Offensively, Texas is like – I think Texas' defense has been slept on a little bit.

Whenever I watch them, I'm like, they are freaking loaded. Roster construct, this isn't even close. But there is a – in college when it comes to outwitting. Right now, the number is 14. Wow, fed up to 14. So see, here's what happens, and this is just a quick one. If it's sitting 13 and a half, and then it moves to 14, for a better, where I'm just betting numbers,

all of a sudden, that makes me think completely differently. Like, I'll take 14 with Oklahoma State. I'll probably start looking into the prop market or halftimes or different types of bets if it's sitting 13.5. Does that make sense? Because that's a key number of 14. So I will take the 14. Because teams win by 14 because that's two touchdowns and two extra points.

It's a touchdown to probability. I mean, you go three, again, with the key numbers. So, yeah, right now, if I can get a 14, I'll get a 14.5, which I do see in the market. You can find a 14, I'll get a 14 and a half, which I do see in the market. You can find a 13 and a half. So if you want to lay with Texas, go ahead and lay the 13 and a half. You can find a 14 and a half. We always talk about having multiple outs.

That just simply means having opportunities to get money down at different books. You want to take the 14 and a half with Oklahoma State. So that's what I would do. Take 14 and a half. FanDuel is our sponsor and they're at 13 and a half right now. And so if I have the opportunity to take Texas at 13 and a half,

I am going to take Texas at 13 and a half because I don't know that the Texas Tech game necessarily was a representation of Texas has found itself. They are going to be this team for the rest of the way. But I do know that when Texas is properly motivated and when they play as well as they can play, they can beat any team in the country. Like, it's funny because we're so used to these years where there's nobody out there that can beat Georgia or Alabama or whoever it is we're talking about at the top.

Texas can beat every team that it might see in the playoff if it makes the playoff on the right day you can also lose to all of them but that's why I think if these guys are truly ready to take that next step they will thump Oklahoma State and put the best case scenario forward for the committee to figure out if they're going to make the playoff or not because remember they need style points they're not in if they win well we can talk about the one lost conference champs that being Bama and Texas if they both were to win but I will say this if you're talking about Texas and just the disparity in talent in Oklahoma State well how about BYU when Ali Gordon ran that touchdown in there was I think there was less than a minute to go there BYU came down and kicked the field goal to force overtime.

Correct. If BYU in Stillwater, if BYU is moving the ball in a big-time leverage spot like that, what's Texas going to do? Again, it's a mismatch in coaching. I'll say you don't have to say that at the start, to be fair. So, Gundy, but this is talent- texas is right there with anybody in the country which brings us to what you just said if bama were to win and i know you talked about this last night but if bama and texas were to both win that it becomes fascinating it really is because

if the favorites went out it's going to be georgia michigan oregon washington winner in texas that's what's going to happen but if bama wins, Washington, winner in Texas. That's what's going to happen. But if Bama wins, it becomes fascinating. It does. It does because all of a sudden you have the head-to-head win from Texas in Tuscaloosa. You have two teams with the same record. And then it's not just the Alabama and Texas piece of that if Alabama wins.

It's Georgia as well because all of a sudden everybody's still getting compared to 12 and one Georgia. And guess what? Your your friends in the desert are going to think they still think 12 and one Georgia can beat everybody in the playoff. They'd be favored over everybody. Yeah. So that's where it gets very complicated. And we'll talk about that in a in a minute when we get to the SEC championship game. But I want to before we do that, we'll be back with more Patrick Maher and more picks. But first, let me tell you about Roback. As you see, I am wearing my black performance hoodie. I've told you a million times, the Roback performance hoodie is the most

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Roback.com, R-H-O-B-A-C-K.com. Use that promo code STAPLES for 20% off your first order. I want to go to the ACC because that's a game where if Florida State wins this game, and as long as Georgia beats Alabama and doesn't cause that crazy scenario we were just talking about, Florida State will get into the playoff as a 13-0 team. They're going to get in as a 13-0 team. But are they going to win this game? We saw Tate Rodemaker once in a start,

and that was against Florida, and it was much tighter than it should have been. We saw Louisville throw up all over themselves against Kentucky, and you kind of wonder, were they looking ahead to this? I think you get a better version of Louisville than we saw on Saturday, but I also think you're going to get a better version of Florida State

now that they've had a full game Norvell calling plays for Automaker to figure out what they do best. Need I remind you, and as we sit here today, so again, this market could get manipulated. Louisville, Florida coming up on Saturday. So FanDuel showing three and a half. Laird State three and a half. DraftKings, for example, is showing Florida State three.

The distinction between that toggled number of three and three and a half for bettors. Understand, the key number is three. So, we'll start there. But you have to remember the original purge for Jeff Brom, and this is what Brom does. Brom loses games. He should. And he wins games. He shouldn't as well. The original purge was when he went to pit

and threw up all over himself and that team lost the pit pit is terrible. No offense, but going to pit with everything to play for because Louisville is one of the faster teams I've watched this year. I'll just say that. As far as speed, they're ridiculous. Good pass rush. Yes. Well, it's actually quite a balanced team. Going to Pitt and losing in a big spot like that was gross. But he's done a hell of a job.

I mean, they've cleared their season prediction as far as win total easily. And here they are in the ACC championship game. It's a great job. But you would agree with the Brown take right remember at Purdue there were games where it was just set up perfectly for him and his team wouldn't show up and then games where they had no shot at being there and all of a sudden he went he's he's weird like that I love him but he's weird like that yeah and this is one I don't know that this is one they're not supposed to win I think people just because of the quarterback situation the line the line tells you it's fairly even I think Norvell is a hell of

a coach I thought Florida State should not have struggled with Florida the way they did it did feel like that Mike Norvell and Tate Rodemaker were on a little better wavelength kind of from the right before the half on, it felt offensively like, okay, now I understand how to get the ball to the weapons with this quarterback, because you saw Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, all of a sudden we're doing more. So I don't know that Louisville has any, any answer for those receivers other than Jalot and Krieger hitting Rodemaker over and over. And if they can do that, then this will be a very interesting game. This one's hard for me because of the Braum factor. I will say this.

I watched, and I'm not bitter, but obviously you can tell from my little rant there that I had Louisville at Pitt in that antiseptic stadium where the Steelers play, which is ridiculous. That kind of, I've been stale on them, but you nailed it. The number is telling you. And I guarantee, I could text somebody right now, but I guarantee if I texted the Sharp guys that I know in Vegas, they're all on Louisvable in this matchup. I don't think – I think the talent, as far as – like I mentioned, the speed. I didn't expect Braum to have that much when he got there in year one.

They're really talented. Well, Scott Satterfield was pretty good at finding athletes. Scott Satterfield came from Appalachian State where basically the job is find people who are fast enough to play in the SEC, but are too small, basically. So I think he understood that that ethos. So that was the bones of the roster that that Jeff Brom took over. And then Jeff Brom, who was playing in a very competitive league in the Big Ten, understood what he needed to bring in around that. And, you know, I think it's pretty – I said Krieger.

I mean Mason Rieger, by the way. Rieger, yeah. My pass rushers mixed up. But this is going to be a fascinating game. It is going to affect everything else. I was all set to pick Florida State. You brought up the Brahm thing. I think I'm going to go with you on this.

I think this is a – this might be a Jeff Brahm special. It up the Brahm thing. I think I'm going to go with you on this. I think this is a Brahm. This might be a Jeff Brahm special. It's a Brahm specialty. Yeah. So I'm going to take Louisville in this game. Florida State may still win. I get some points in this one. But I think you may be right about Jeff Brahm here.

Yeah. I'll take the three and a half at FanDuel with Louisville. But again, if I am laying it with Florida State, we're better. So we're just going to keep coming back to that. Lay the three and a half. It's very important. So let us go to the Big Ten. We've got to pick the spread and the total here because on this show, we pick the Iowa total every week. The Iowa under this season is 10-2. So I,

I blew it against Illinois, Patrick. I, I picked the over. Why? Because Illinois had just thrown for 500 yards. I felt like my man Deacon Hill at Iowa was about to have a big game against Illinois secondary.

And yeah, 15, 13. So this one right now, Michigan, Iowa is sitting 23. As far as the side, the total is 35 and a half. Just for perspective, Michigan scores 38.3 a game. Okay. Just to give you an idea of what we're dealing with here. This is a mismatch.

Now I was going to find out next year how tough the big 10 is when legit teams start combined start getting involved um in their division are they still going to do this wacky divisions moving forward when it's no division thanks thank god i that drives me freaking crazy do you remember in 2021 the big 10 championship game what happened this was iowa v michigan and oh yeah it. It was a blowout. And this is where I'm going with this, with the spread and with the total. So the total is 35.5. So Michigan favored by 22.5 at FanDuel, 23 in some other places.

What we're talking about is a 29-6 game. That is what we're talking about. Michigan, I think, is going to score more than that. I think here's what happens with Iowa. Iowa's defense is great. It is incredibly well coached by Phil Parker. They don't have an abundance of special athletes. They did have one really great one in Cooper DeJean,

who is out after getting hurt at practice a couple weeks ago the problem when they play teams that have some special athletes or in Michigan's case a lot of special athletes it's totally different being in the right place doesn't matter when you just get beat by a better player and so when you're playing against Wisconsin when you're playing against Nebraska being in the right place is all you got to be but against Ohio State or against Michigan sometimes it doesn't matter if you're in the right place you just get beat so 2021 Michigan closed 12 they were laying 12 they beat up on Iowa 42 to 3 that offense in 21 of Iowa was freaking prolific compared to this offense.

Remember, that offense, they went to College Park. They went to Maryland and dropped 51 on them. Well, there were pick sixes in that game. Okay. To be fair, look up and down that season. They were a much better offense. So I'm just contextualizing. If you're nervous about the 23 23 and a half you have to

start breaking this down from a betting perspective and quarters and halves what will michigan do because this is not about the big 10 championship game for michigan this is about redemption once they get to the final four are they going to be the villain the story that everybody's trying to build and the great lake state this is this has not like they're going to beat iowa now the question is what do you do with this from a betting perspective i'll tell you what i'm gonna do i'm gonna bet the first quarter i'm gonna lay five and a half with michigan in the first quarter i think this is a half i think this game comes down to the first half i'll tell you what the half line is you you want to take a stab at that just for fun just for

practice so the game total is excuse me the game line is 23 and a half You want to take a stab at that just for fun, just for practice? So the game total is, excuse me, the game line is 23 and a half. You want to take a stab at the first half line? Michigan by 13. You generally just cut it in half. It's 13 and a half Michigan. The first quarter line is five and a half. What I do is expect Michigan, who's overwhelmingly better, that run game is going to be fine against Iowa.

I'd expect them to jump out to an early lead. You can see this going to, obviously, the second quarter, Michigan up 7-0, Michigan up 10-0. Iowa's not going to score. Well, right. It's not just Iowa's not going to score. Here's where the total comes in for me, whether it's the total or first-half total or even a first half or first quarter spread,

is are they going to force Iowa to throw an interception that gives Michigan the ball on the Iowa six-yard line? Like, are they going to give Michigan some cheap, easy points? And that's really what this comes down to. If they give Michigan cheap, easy points, it goes over Michigan covers and all of your your props hit if they don't if they if they somehow the ball does not end up in Michigan's hands and Tori Taylor gets to punt it then maybe you're under hits maybe well let me ask you this what was the difference between

Michigan and Ohio State it's very simple it's two interceptions and special teams correct well that's what i'm worried about that so i i'm going to take michigan to cover and i am going to take the over in this game i'm sorry i'm laughing because we're laying 23 and a half in a championship game iowa would you please get the hell out of the way okay that number closed that number staples closed 25 and a half iowa nebraska you know what it did stayed under 13 10 unbelievable 25 and a half is a historically low number well 35 and a half i'm still gonna go under i'm sorry because michigan is absolutely gonna they're gonna be just like the dallas cowboys they're going to be just like the Dallas Cowboys they're going to be eating chicken on the sidelines in the fourth quarter it was turkey same thing stashed in the Salvation Army kettle

there you know what you know what's so classic about the disrespect to put forethought into the disrespect to put forethought into the blowout was the exactly and then Del Rio got canned the next day but anyway uh I go, I'd also lay it. But again, I'm looking for an alternative here, so I'll lay the 5.5 in the first quarter with Michigan as well. Let us go to the most interesting game of the weekend, the one that a certain result will give the whole world a shakeup. It'll be like shaking the snow globe.

Alabama-Georgia. Oh, really? I didn't realize we were going to talk about that one. Oh, yeah. So, Georgia favored by five and a half. This one is so fascinating to me, Patrick, because of what happened two years ago. Alabama, two years ago, coming off a four-overtime game

against a pretty blah Auburn team. Goes in against a Georgia team that is was better than Alabama objectively speaking Georgia was definitely better that year and they proved it right eventually they didn't prove it in Atlanta because Alabama beat Georgia pretty handily in Atlanta that year this Georgia team not as dominant as dominant defensively as that Georgia team. I think probably a little better offensively than that Georgia group. This Alabama team does not have a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. But they do have, I think, a very good secondary.

I think a defense that can make some stuff happen. And that's the question is Carson Beck still throwing darts against Alabama's defense the way he was against the Ole Miss defense the way he was against the Tennessee defense because if he is I don't know that Alabama has much of a chance here but if Alabama can can disrupt him somewhat then we got something interesting going so let's start with 2021 in Atlanta right where you started. We'll start there, then we'll move forward to this year's number. So you remember, Bama beat up on Georgia 41-24.

Georgia was laying six in that game, Andy. So Saban is 4-1 against Smart. This number, let me ask you a question. Georgia, Alabama this year, Georgia, who's won 45 of 46 games their last loss was in 21 in that championship game which we discussed yes Bama has won 10 straight after the loss to Texas this number is hilarious it's five FanDuel your book is showing five and a half right now let me ask you this why is Georgia only laying five and a half points yet Oregon is laying close to 10 against Washington who hasn't lost in 19 games think

about that it's perception the public loves to bet Nick Saban the public loves to bet teams they know teams they care about and Georgia obviously is one of them but this is a perception game this number is way too short Georgia is an absolutely beat upabama don't look at the last game against george tech remember mcconkey didn't play robert thomas didn't play brock bowers didn't play and that was carson beck's worst game of the year i think he's that's amazing when you take your three best receivers off the field i would say i was gonna ask you just those are gonna be their three best offensive players right McIntosh maybe but um this is Bama's least dynamic team in a decade well yeah Dijon Edwards uh Dylan Bell but yeah I think I think you're right about that and the thing about Georgia when when they have those three guys playing when they had when Carson Beck has his full compliment it's very hard to to

figure out how to defend them even if you're Nick Saban even if you have the level of talent that you have on your defense and I'm also curious because everybody says oh Kirby Smart doesn't do well against running quarterbacks and Jalen Milrow can run around Jalen Milrow is never going to have the amount of time that he had on the play at the end of the Auburn game. He will never have that long to throw. And you have to get after him if you're Georgia. And this is the 21 games. Interesting to me, Patrick, because I felt like Kirby went into that game with a very conservative defensive game plan. If you watch them, they were rushing for almost every time they would run some stunts, but they weren't doing a

lot of stuff in terms of pressure to really get Bryce Young off his spot. When they played again, they heated him up and it was like, oh, you were trying to be as vanilla as possible and just beat them because you were better and not show your potential playoff opponents what you can do. And so I don't think they make that mistake this time. You've got to heat up Jalen Milrow. You've got to keep him from getting loose because if Jalen Milrow drops back, you're in man, everybody's covered. He's going to gain 20 yards on the ground.

You've got to have somebody who can go get him you cannot let him sit back there or the other thing about jayla and this is where jayla miller is an interesting interesting quarterback because usually when you have the guy who can run really well he's not a great deep ball thrower jayla miller is a great deep ball thrower, as you saw on that last play. Yes, yes. So it's the short and intermediate stuff that he struggles with. Well, guess what you have to throw if you're being blitzed? Short and intermediate stuff.

Very RG3-like, to use a comparison. Remember, he struggled intermediate-wise, but he could throw a beautiful deep ball and was very elusive, what I love. Now, first off, I'm just going to tell you, I'm betting Georgia. This number is short. And in gambling parlance, you look at a number, you go, that feels short to me, feels short. The other one feels long. That's a heavy number. Washington, Oregon, that's just kind of give you my thought process. Okay. And back to this, the angle that's interesting here is Saban's got to coach him up. He's a dog. Like he's generally, everything's on him. It's fascinating. I, I had never thought about what you said about Kirby, Kirby playing a little bit of chess in 21 by not showing a ton, knowing he was going to get in, even if they had lost.

That's fascinating to me. I don't think he makes that same mistake again. I think, look, this is the fourth and 31 is all we've been talking about since Saturday. And now you're going against a team that McConkie is going to play. Thomas is going to play. Bauer is going to play. They're going to be fine. Yeah, I'm with you here. I had to issue an apology video after that 2021 game because i i was so sure georgia's

gonna win gonna cover i said i got i wound up in the alabama hype video that they showed the players before the game because i was so adamant that georgia was gonna beat them i think i said something like there's no way alabama wins this game and so after that i got a little gun shy about picking against nick saban in situations like this but I think you're right in that one this feels low two it felt like Georgia sandbagged last week I don't think they will sandbag this because because let's talk about the playoff scenario again if they lose I I think the committee would still put Georgia in but if Washington wins and Florida State wins and you have three 13-0 conference champs and Alabama as your 12-1 SEC champ

and Texas as a 12-1 Big 12 champ that beat Alabama and Tuscaloosa, where's the room for Georgia in there? So Kirby's probably looking at this as a must win that maybe stuff doesn't happen that gets you into the playoff otherwise you have to win here Kirby was sandbagging did you see the quote after the Georgia Tech win they said were you caught looking ahead he goes goes, what are you talking about? We just played for the state championship. Okay, settle down, Kirby. Listen, he's got a lot of Bainbridge in him. A lot of Bainbridge.

Calvin Johnson ain't walking through that door, Kirby. Let's just take it easy with Georgia Tech, okay? And then secondly, what's fascinating is we've been doing this for a while with the committee, and we go to 12 next year. If Florida State wins, just to be fair florida state wins obviously that would be the first time the committee ever left an undefeated major conference team out that's the rub here the committee does not want florida state in the mix and i i'm not going to get into all that with you i just talk about numbers but i know you guys fought about it yesterday it would be a disastrous scenario the committee of alabama wins i'm going to tell you this that people may not understand

a lot of this comes down to what happens in vegas and ratings and numbers and all of that nick saban is going to be in the final four that is a lock right and not alabama nick saban is going right and and that pulls texas into it too because if texas is 12 and 1 and alabama is 12 and 1 and texas beat alabama they're in there too which you don't know what happens to georgia so again georgia is in in a back against the wall must win you don't want to be left out when you know you're probably the best team in the country like they're gonna pull out all the stops in this one I also will take Georgia Patrick holy cow did we learn something is I did check is uh Shane Beamer still the South Carolina Gamecock head coach let me just be clear before we say goodbye Steve Sp spurrier won 11 games three years in a row in columbia you can win

there just that's all that's all well i i will point this out i say this a lot i have actually said this to him this the coaching job steve spurrier did at south carolina is better than the coaching job he did at florida and he was amazing yeah South Carolina means nothing on the college football map literally nothing and they've continued to mean nothing after Steve Spurrier left well we'll find out I I am very confident that Shane Beamer will be your alma mater's coach next year whether he's your alma mater's coach in 2025 is entirely up to him right now. So, uh, that, that is, that is my prediction. You can go ahead and, uh, and put some money on that one, uh, with your, with your friends in Vegas, Patrick Maher, the host of sharp money on the

Vegas sports and information network. He's close personal friend of Brent Musburger's, which makes him awesome. Thank you, Patrick. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it, Andy.