Andy & Ari On3 - Kirby Smart SOUNDS OFF on the state of college football

Episode Date: April 2, 2025

Whataburger fans, it’s time to celebrate — the Mushroom Swiss Burger is BACK!And, honestly, it deserves a welcome party. Two juicy, all-beef patties, melty cheese and twolayers of perfectly grilled mushrooms bring the rich, hearty goodness. And let’s not forget thecreamy au jus sauce tying it all together like a perfect bite-sized symphony. But here’s the catch— it’s only here for a limited time. So if you love mushrooms, this one’s for you. Don’t be theperson wishing they got it after it’s gone. Grab yours today!(0:00-3:18) Intro: Big Date of April 7th(3:19-15:40) What Kirby Smart said(15:41-17:48) Whataburger(17:49-32:00) What's Ahead for College Football(32:01-40:35) Wrapping up Kirby Smart discussion(40:36-46:10) Ceilings of teams in 2025: Penn State(46:11-53:30) Tennessee's Ceiling (53:31-55:38) LSU's Ceiling(55:39-1:01:20) Nebraska's Ceiling (1:01:21-1:06:33) USC's Ceiling(1:06:34-1:08:29) Florida's Ceiling(1:08:30-1:12:23) Conclusion: Lane Kiffin's Pilates Georgia coach Kirby Smart sounded off Tuesday on the state of college football. His timing wasn’t coincidental. A hearing in federal court on Monday will help shape what the future looks like. Is Smart correct? How much will the situation change in the next few years? Later, Andy and Ari discuss the ceilings of several programs. Some of these harbor national title expectations, but is their ceiling a national title? Or is it lower? We talk:TennesseeNebraskaPenn StateLSUAuburnSouth CarolinaIllinoisWashingtonUSC  Watch us Live, M-F, on YouTube at 9:30 am ET: https://youtube.com/live/Qpe3NOvpR2M Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]

Well, welcome to Annie and Ariane 3 big day. Today, we're gonna have to have a conversation at some point. I'm glad Kirby Smart went off on Tuesday to do this because now we have a very well-respected, maybe the best currently working college coach talking about what's going to happen on Monday. And we're not talking about the national championship game in basketball. We're talking about the house settlement, and whether it's going to go through fully or not, and what happens after that. And we've kind of avoided talking about it on the show in a broad sense because I think it makes people's eyes glaze over. People don't seem to really be interested in the machinations of it. They think they have opinions on it. They think they care. But then we start talking about like, can you please tell me who's going to start quarterback at Alabama?

Yeah, I get that. It's a sports show. We want to talk about sports. Well, yeah, but I think part of the reason for that too, Andy, is that in college football, when things change and things move, it's minor updates. And people don't have the stand-up for the minor updates that could lead to it. They just want to know what's the deal now

and what does it mean? They don't need 19 different judge reviews on the direction of things. I think it's the main one. This is supposed to be the big one coming Monday. And for those who don't know, the house settlement is it's house versus the NCAA. It's a case that is being settled.

And part of the settlement is back pay for athletes who sued because they believe they would have gotten NIL money had NIL been allowed. And so like Johnny Manziel is gonna get a check for money that he should have gotten because he should have been allowed to do an I'll that's Pete. That's one piece. But the second piece of is going forward. The schools are going to if you opt into the settlement, agree to an amount of money that the schools can pay their athletes directly. And next year, that amount of money would be 20 and a half million dollars,

basically 22% of the median power conference athletic budget, which to be clear is the same for everybody, regardless of what conference you're in. Correct, correct. And you can choose to opt in or not. If you don't opt in, you can't pay the athletes directly. But you also could just keep like, if you had a collective that raised $40 million, you can just pay with that.

So that's the difference. You also will be able to still do NIL deals outside of these things if you're an athlete. What is the concern among the schools is that somebody is just gonna say, well, I'm going to give you $500,000 for an Instagram post. And so they've created this thing within the settlement. It's going to be an enforcement arm that's run by the accounting firm Deloitte.

And it's essentially the NCAA enforcement staff just through a third party company. Like they're going to look at these NIL deals and if they're over $600 they're gonna decide is this fair market value for this deal or not and they're supposedly gonna have the power to say you're not allowed to play if you take this deal. I think that's going to be a problem because- Yeah, I was gonna say over under six months

of that going on. Yeah. The first time somebody goes after a Tennessee players deal, the Tennessee attorney general is going to sue and blow this thing up. So, and I've had this argument. I had this argument last week with somebody where they're saying, well, no, I mean the schools and players are opting into it. I'm like, okay, but I didn't opt into it. And what if I'm the CEO of a company, you can't trace me back to a

particular program, and I want to pay a kid a million dollars. And you don't think he's, and Deloitte doesn't think he's worth a million dollars. You can't tell me that I can't pay him. If Shannon Terry wanted to write me a check for $2 million, even though that's more than my market value, could somebody, nobody on earth could tell him he can't do that, right? No, absolutely, it would be illegal. So, and then the Oprah Winfrey gift. Right, right, you get a car and you get a, so that's what we're headed toward.

And Kirby Smart though, I'm glad he brought it up because he spoke for pretty much everybody working in college sports, the coaches, the athletic directors, everybody, about where they're at right now and the nerves they're feeling and the unsure situation that everyone is dealing with. So let's, let's hear Kirby smart from Tuesday night. I think everybody's got to take a big pause right now and say deep breath because of what's going on with the basketball right now and say deep breath because of what's going on with basketball right now is crazy. And we don't know everything that's going to come out with

April 7th, which might be April 7th. We might be the settlement date where we get a lot more information. But you know, everybody's on pins and needles because we don't know exactly what's going to come out of this. What I do know is that we're going to continue to recruit people who love football, who are passionate about football, and that don't put money as the number one answer. Like I've never met a really good player

that that's all they cared about. So like the 105 number, the NIL number, what's the cap number, what is this going to be? There's stuff going on right now, guys, in college football. I mean, there's people reaching out to have a Zoom call and present all the players they represent that are teams, including our teams. And they wanna invite people to the Zoom

so they can watch and see who's going in the portal or shopping who's in the portal before the portal. Do you wanna get on the Zoom and look at all these players? I'm like, well, what if some of them are mine? I mean, it could be one of the most legendary moments in all of college sports with what's coming up on this ruling and how people are going to try to manipulate a cap when all we're trying to do is make for competitive balance.

And it's really unfortunate that I don't know if competitive balance is going to come out of it. You know, like I don't know if the kids win in this model that we currently have if they win long term. Like long term, when we have to cut sports and cut other things, are the kids gonna be the winners of this? I don't know, college sports been around a long time

and given many an opportunity. And by all means, I want these kids to make money. But what's going on right now is not good for anybody. So, Joseph asked the logical questionosef asked the logical question. I asked the same question. Don't agents do the same thing when a big job opens up with coaches like what does Kirby Smart think that Jimmy Sexton is doing every year when he goes to an AD

and is like, here's all the coaches I represent. Like when Kirby was the DC at Alabama and a big head coaching job opened up, Jimmy Sexton brought his name to many, many places. Yeah. He was going to get hired at South Carolina and that's why Georgia fired Mark Richt to make sure they didn't lose him. Yeah. I mean, there's a lot to unpack there, Andy. Like that, that was a lot.

Zach, agents are the same as players. They have buyouts. No shit, Zach. They're employees. The schools have the same as players. They have buyouts. No shit. Zach, their employees, the schools have fought making the players employees. And if they wanted to make them employees, they could sign them to contracts with buyouts, but they continuously choose not to. So what part of that video to you was the most important? Well, if I'm a Georgia fan, the most important part to me is when Kirby says we are going to continue to recruit

the players who love football, who don't think money is the most important thing, because he's 1000% right about that. A thousand percent. Yes. And you notice he wasn't talking about he wasn't saying money doesn't matter at all. But he was saying you can't build a winning team on guys who just take the biggest bag. Like the thing that Nick Saban did well at Alabama, that Kirby's done really well at Georgia, like they can take any in the old system before before NIL, they could take literally anybody they wanted. They were great at finding the people who would fit that program culturally, who were not going to come in with

a sense of entitlement who were going to come in and want to work and be willing to participate in really physical practices where they could lose their job on any given day. That's how you have to keep recruiting, even in this era. Now, when Kirby's talking about wanting competitive balance, that ain't good for Kirby, that ain't good for Georgia. Competitive balance means it's a system where Mississippi State can have as good of a roster

as you guys do. You don't want that. Competitive balance means Tennessee might beat you every once in a while. You don't want that. Yeah, I mean, because like the thing that's interesting about hearing him speak and the thing that I was going off in my head the whole time, because like I do think that, you know, there are certain valid points about, you know, whether the kids as a collective win long-term when you include players from other sports. You know, that's definitely a thought process. But like in terms of the teams and the programs that

are most apt or are set up to take advantage of the new system, I would imagine that Georgia is in a position to separate from the pack more than anybody. So it's kind of like. But they're not. And that's what they're scared of. Because they don't have more billionaires than Michigan in their alumni base. Those billionaires existed in this modern era too, right? Like, I guess like. Now they can actually just pay. Because we're saying, OK, if the house settlement goes

through as currently written, and the rules that govern the outside NIL deals are enforceable, then yeah, everybody's gonna, everybody's gonna be working from the same pot. If what most people in college football actually think happens is going to happen, then your Georges, your Ohio states, your Alabama's, your teams that care more are going to find people who want to spend a little more. You don't want to stand in front of somebody's $7 million house and hear them complain about how high taxes have gotten.

It impacts everybody and everybody deals with it. I guess maybe that's a terrible example because the number one thing in the country is about whether or not billionaires pay enough of them. But you get what I'm saying, right? Yeah, taxes impact everybody. Yeah, and I'm my heart bleeds a little bit less for people who are making over a million dollars a year, right? Well, and like Zach in the chat says, Kirby and coaches can't do what players are doing. So why are you acting like Jimmy Sexton is analogous to these players and their agents? No coaches do that every year. They do it all the time.

They do do that. What? I don't even understand. Yeah. Yeah. Just cause they have a buyout doesn't mean they're not shopping themselves to other people. Yeah. You know those little contract extensions that pop up this time of year, you know, I don't happen. It's cause the agent leveraged it. Yeah, I don't think it's because ADs are feeling generous all the time. Like, so, you know, it's a weird thing to me because it's like, you're like, yeah, well, Georgia doesn't compare billionaire alumni-wise to Michigan, right? But Georgia is out recruiting and out accumulating talent from Michigan, and it's not even close

in the current. You would think that in this current system that billionaires can be weaponized more than in the later system. Because in the later system, the rev share system, everybody's going to get a check directly from the school and then on top of it, you can get your NIL deals. When that whole thing with the review of whether or not it's

a rational deal or whatever gets blown up because it will, it might be a cute little thing to track for a year, but it's not going to be here in five. The billionaires can step in and make other people whole and just pay all this money. But if they were going to do that in that system, then why aren't they doing it in this one? And I guess they are too. I spoke. But it's not like what program has taken over the

sport because a billionaire decided their team is going to win a championship so far. Like it hasn't happened yet. Right. Yeah. Everybody's every points to Oregon. Oregon has won a national title, but I will point out. Remember Dan Lanning's first game at Oregon? It was against Georgia. Sure. Yeah. And you saw the how wide the gap was between Georgia and Oregon. If they played this year, how wide would that gap be? I think Oregon probably would win that

game. Or it'd be it'd be probably less than a field goal spread either way. Like it's Oh, yeah, no, there's no question and I but also to part of that equation, I guess, to your point is that Georgia wasn't as good this year as they were the year they played that opener either. So but like that equation, I guess, to your point is that Georgia wasn't as good this year as they were the year they played that opener either. So but like, yeah, I mean, they're getting but like, Georgia is not a team that's going to stink because of this, you know, and like, I think that, like your theory that everybody it's going to be like Major League Baseball and the Kansas City Royals can win, I think will probably turn out to be true. But I'm also wondering.

But the Dodgers are gonna usually win. So what I'm actually wondering though, is that maybe once every 10 years we get a Royals, but we're gonna get separation again in the sport the same way that we did five years ago. I don't think we're gonna get it as drastically though. Because what we've seen from this completely wild system Five years ago, I don't think we're going to get it as as drastically though, because what we've seen from this completely wild system is more teams that can win the national

championship. That's better for viewers. That is better. You complained because the same three teams won the national championship every year. Now there are more teams capable of winning the national championship. That is a more competitive environment. So like Kirby Smart is complaining about this saying they all they want is competitive balance.

This system is actually more competitively balanced while still very unbalanced than the old system. Yeah. Yeah. Because you don't have, you don't have starter quality players sitting at the bench at other teams. Like if you're a starter quality player, you know, you might be a freshman or somebody who, you know, reached his potential in the middle of the year where you can't leave. But most of the time, if you're a good player, you're going to be playing somewhere. And that wasn't always the case. I mean, like in 2015, you had teams that had two deeps that could beat other teams' starters.

And like that, I guess is going through the wayside, but I think the question that you have to ask is, I think part of the reason why we have competitive balance more now than we did before is because people aren't interested in spending a shit ton of money on players who don't play. And I'm wondering if with the revenue share employment agreements, if people are going to have a higher, a higher likelihood to spend money on players who aren't playing yet, because they're employees. And then And then that to me is what changes and brings us back to five years ago.

And that's the thing that I think everybody's ignoring. Um, so yeah, that's my theory. I don't know. I think you're right about that. And now Kirby had some more interesting stuff to say about this. So we're going to get to that in a second. First, I got to tell you guys what we're doing this weekend. We are headed to San Antonio.

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Okay, let's talk more about what Kirby said because he was very interesting. I don't wanna pile on Kirby Smart here because if you ask Kirby Smart what he really wants, he just wants defined rules and a system that he understands. This is how it works. And that is not it. I get he's a millionaire, whatever.

It's not a big ask. Everybody wants that. Everybody wants that, right? Like everybody wants to know because like that's the thing. It's like regardless of whether or not you liked the way that the college football world operated 10 years ago and regardless of whether people broke the rules, there were clear unidentifiable rules of what you can and cannot do when assembling a football team.

Yeah. Um, some people had competitive advantages that came in a water burger bag. Um, some didn't, but you knew what the rules were. And I feel like, like, this is the other thing too. It's like when you were talking, it's like, well, if you have a collective that has 40 million dollars and you don't want to opt into the house settlement, then what does that mean for your players ability to move still? Like, I mean, there's so many different moving parts of like

who's going to be subject to buyouts and contracts and who's not. Is it an advantage to do that? Like, it's the same thing that corporations go through, right, like the company that we used to work for. Do we give out contracts or do we give people salary? Like it's a very bizarre thing. These coaches are really just saying, tell me how I'm supposed to do my job.

Just tell me the rules and I'll do them. We might end up at a place even with the house settlement where the job is different and the guidelines of how to do that job are still. Yeah, this doesn't make them employees, by the way. The schools are still pretending they're not paying them for football. Like, it's going to, there's a couple more steps that have to be taken. And I think most coaches would be fine with the schools calling them employees and assigning them the multi-year contracts. And like that would make the coaches lives easier, but they're not in charge. The presidents have not wanted that. The schools have been the ones avoiding that.

And now I gotta be honest, if I'm a player, I don't know if I want that either. Cause like the system's now tilted entirely toward the players. They have all the leverage. So like, I don't know if I want to change anything at this point, if I was a player, but here's a little more from Kirby smart last night

Not I mean we've talked about the house settlement the biggest thing going on is is you got two dates you're operating off of there's A portal date. There's a house settlement date and there's a lot of people doing Not not not there's not illegal things. They're just manipulative money things to try to move this, move that so I can free up this and what's going to happen? There's probably going to be a bubble or a spike and then agents are literally trying to take advantage of that every minute they can. They want to get all they can for their client.

But at the end of the day, it may backfire because there's going to be a correction in the market at some point when this cap hits. If the cap is truly what the house settlement wants it to be, if there is truly a cap, if you just keep trying to front load and pay out people and what's going on in basketball now and football now, people are trying to beat a date, then what's going to happen when those people expect that same money that next year and it's not there because you're in a cap. Like there's going to be a correction eventually.

And I don't think any of us know what's gonna happen. Well, he's exactly right about that. And I think I can predict when the correction will be, it'll be next year. Here's why. Let's say this gets approved and the schools start doing the revenue share. And every school that opts in

can do 20 and a half million dollars to the players. And it's not all gonna go to football, it's gonna get split up into different sports. But suddenly Wake Forest, Boston College, Iowa State, schools that were working really hard to raise a two or $3 million payroll for their players, they suddenly have $13 million for their players. And there's dozens of them.

That's where all the new money's from. So next year won't be new money. So what you've seen, and we've talked about this with Pete Nacos, the amount of money that is going to these players this off-season is astronomically different than what it was before because there is so much more money in the system now. And like Kirby said, a lot of the schools are trying to beat it. Like they're trying to pay with NIL now, and then they'll kick in with

rev share at the end of this year. And that's just a 2025 situation because once rev share is available. And as a year round thing, you're not going to have that one giant cash infusion. So that's the tricky part. That's the tricky part. Nathan in the chat says, aren't a lot of athletic departments already operating on a budget deficit?

How will they reallocate $20 million? Is there a chance some just go belly up? Oh, Nathan, Nathan, Nathan, sweet Nathan. Remember these athletic departments are at colleges which are non-profits. The point of a non-profit is to not show a profit. So they've been great at not showing a profit, but all the cranes on campus tell you they're making money. So they'll be okay. They're not going belly up. Yeah. The expectation for X dollars and then being in a world where it's.2X is going to be interesting. But at the same time too, if that's what you're getting across the board from everyone, you're just going to have to correct that.

Like, I mean, like what are the players going to do? Have a mutiny and not play? Like it's just, that's what just going to have to correct that. Like, I mean, like, what are the players going to do? Have a mutiny and not play? Like, it's just, and then you're going to find that there's no money. And the thing about we kept, we keep talking about, we think the third party policing system is going to blow up. I think for practical purposes, at most schools, not at the ones that want to win the national title in football. So Georgia, Ohio state, Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, like those are going to be different, but for most schools that cap, whether it's arbitrary and enforced, like written down and somewhere, and this is what you have or whether it's just. Loosely guideline. There will be a an effective cap because most schools the donors are going to be like OK, I'm not giving the collective

anymore. I'm just going to give this tax deductible donation to the athletic department. Please spend your 20 and a half million dollars wisely and win some games like the other. The other part of this too is how do you allocate that money once you have it? Yeah. If you're BC, do you pay 50% of your total revenue sharing allocation to a five star quarterback that never would sniff going to that school two years ago? And then yeah, it's gonna be I try. Yeah,

like, it'll we have, I going to call some personnel people here in the next few weeks, I think, and just see like, how would you allocate your money? Like, would you spend it all on a quarterback? Would you try to beef up your lines? Like where do you, like, would you go big on three players or would you try to spread it around to a, like these are like from a, from a. Roster building standpoint, I actually find that to be quite interesting what I don't find interesting is you know places like Georgia and Ohio State and

Michigan and all the other places that are competing at the highest level I don't think they're gonna have be subject to the moneyball aspect of this because I think that they will rev share what they can Through donations and the revenue from the athletic department and and then they will on top of it, broker their deals on the app. Like, I think that the idea that NIL is going away, or that NIL isn't going to be the, the, the thing that tips the scales in terms of where player sign is naive. Like, this is not going to be like, Oh, well, there's RevNet, there's RevShare now, so we're not going to to like, NIL is still going to be very much a topic of conversation. Now, I do think rev share, if, if handled well, is going to close the gap a little more. Because we talked to Jake

Dickard Wake Forest a few weeks ago. Jake Dickard sent an really interesting situation, because if he evaluates well and develops well, now he's actually got some money. When he has a good player, like somebody that they unearthed who's a diamond in the rough, who turns out to be a really good player, they have money to pay to keep that player. So suddenly, if you allocate it right, you've got a better chance as one of those schools to be competitive. Now, you're right. It's Georgia, Ohio State.

Those are the Yankees and the Dodgers. Like they're going to always have the Yankees and the Dodgers are going to use their revenue sharing to distribute probably somewhat evenly to their entire roster, including freshmen and upperclassmen. And then what they're going to do is when their players become stars or they develop in the system, they're going to get fed on the back end with NIL money. Yeah. That's what's gonna happen.

So while the Demon Deacons find a gem. They're gonna have to use their rev share to retain. They're gonna use their rev share and NIL to retain that player. Yeah. Whereas the players who are already in the system at the big time schools are going to get made whole on the back end. And that's why I think that that's naive to think that it's going to get closer. Like I think it's going to get because like, listen, Andy, before this weird transfer,

I didn't say they were going to be able to win national championships, but I think there are going to be situations where if you're a good evaluator and your program has done a good job retaining the people that you've developed, when you're old, you're going to have a chance to beat the bigger money teams where the coach might not be as good of an evaluator. It's interesting to me though,

is that the notion of retaining your players is a five-year thing, or like a two or three year problem. Jordan Addison leaving Pitt and going to USC was like an unprecedented move. Okay. So when the gap in the sport was the largest, which was in the early 2000s to 2015, really teams like Wake Forest and Indiana and Purdue had great individual players while the gap was the largest. So I think what's happening here is that nobody wants to be on the bench.

So because nobody wants to be on the bench in this era, the starters at these places, it's not about star players staying, it's about having serviceable to pretty good players playing all over the field at places that didn't typically have them. If we get back to a place where players can be compensated and patient again and stay on the rosters like Georgia, who want to go there for things other than football, then what you're going to do again is you're going to take,

you know, these teams are going to have star players. I don't think they're going to be patient. I still think they're going to want to play because the money is going to be similar. And again, the money is not unlimited. Even Georgia, Oregon. But I disagree with that because playing never won out before. We're watching it now, Ari. We're watching it in a completely open market where the richest schools raise the most money. And we're watching the Georges and the Ohio States lose starters. I'm not saying they're losing to Wake Forest,

but they are losing them to Arkansas. They're losing them to Indiana. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, okay. It's happening. We're watching it happen. So the rev share system just gives more money to spend to the schools that didn't have that money to spend.

So what's the logical conclusion? That they're going to have better players than they had before. Yeah, maybe I'm completely off on this. I don't know. Um, everybody gets paid everywhere. The market is, the market is shockingly efficient. Like this is completely wild unchecked, untapped. This is just Adam Smith, you know, the invisible hand doing its thing and

competitive balance has improved. Indiana had what? Seven really good players last year. You would say that were like game changing players that help them go undefeated. Yeah, Rourke, Pons, a few, a few receivers like, yes. So I'm like wondering like D' Angelo Pons is the perfect example, little plucky cornerback who can jump through a building and is really good and it's going to be a good NFL player despite his lack of size.

In revenue share. When he's able to get the revenue from Indiana and Michigan, for instance. Right, but Indiana can pay to make sure he stays there. Now, but can they do it with all seven is the point. But here's the thing, Michigan's got to pay its best players too and keep its backups from leaving and going to start at Indiana. Yeah. So that's the thing. I feel like we're playing Risk here. It's's gonna be fun. I don't know. We are now. I do think I see the chat. Well, okay, can you sign in the con? That's gonna happen. It's gonna come. They're gonna figure out a way to collectively bargain this. I'm not there's a couple different ways it might happen. You might have some congressional action that that allow that allows a carve out for them to bargain with them. They might make them employees. If the schools were to decide to form their own super conference for football,

the players could be the employees of the conference, which would make everything a little bit easier because then they'd be private employees. Making them employees of their individual universities is probably the most difficult solution because it's a bunch of public schools in states that have different state laws. Like, for example, did you know that state employees in South Carolina cannot unionize? So you can't like that would make it very hard for Clemson in South Carolina to be part of a CBA. But if they are employees of college football, super league LLC, or college football, super league, Inc, then But if they are employees of College Football Super League LLC or College Football Super League Inc. Then they could.

Yeah, the. This is wild, dude. I'm like, I'm excited. The only request that I have, Andy, is that everybody's playing by the same rules They may not be playing with the same money, but everybody's just playing by the same Well, they are playing by the same rules now, which is the Sherman antitrust Act is the rule that is governing all of this If they have a CBA then they are adjusting so I spoke at a panel discussion at Florida's law school the other day and strictly the athletic director Was it what's that? Yeah, that's electric, dude I spoke at a panel discussion at Florida's Law School the other day and the athletic director was it.

What's that? That's electric, dude. You're I like how you speak. You guys know this about Andy. He does speaking engagements a lot. Well, this is when they just asked me to come over and you know, because they had Scott Strickland, who's the AD and then Amy Haas is their deputy AD who has a really interesting background because she was in the general counsel's office for the university before she came over to athletics. So she's she's seen some stuff in the legal profession because like when you're at a major state

university you're getting sued for everything under the Sun. So she's seen some stuff. So it's really interesting to hear their perspectives on it but Scott you know asked me he's like okay and this was more Scott knows the answer to this but this was more for the audience's benefit. He asked me, okay, so what is keeping Jerry Jones from paying Dak Prescott or Micah Parsons less and then having Dallas businesses or some of his oil and gas interests just kicking in salary behind them? And I said, because the NFL has a CBA that Micah Parsons and Dak Prescott have agreed to through their membership in the NFLPA,

that we'll get draft picks taken away from the Dallas Cowboys if that happens. And that keeps Jerry in line. And Jerry's agreed to it, and Micah's agreed to it, and Dak's agreed to it. And that's why it holds up. It creates like the schools keep talking about they want an antitrust exemption. A CBA creates its own antitrust exemption because the people who would normally be aggrieved have agreed to the system. Right. And they have a system like they have an arbitration system to settle disputes, but they're not going to court every time. And that's the thing. You have to keep this from going to court every single time. And that's kind of the only way you can. the coaches want to know what they're dealing with and what they're working with, right? But like, I want to know, like, if you did like an anonymous poll of coaches, do you want to sign

players to multi year deals if they'd even want to from a football perspective? 100% of them would say yes, but they want the flexibility to sign some to one year deals and some to two and some to three and some to four. Yeah, right. But like every four years, then they probably wouldn't want that, right? Cause you don't want to play.

Let's talk about player. We talk about a lot like Lenora sellers. Well, Norse sellers should sign a one year deal. Yeah. Cause his ceiling is astronomical bed on yourself. The next deal might know, obviously sellers probably going to the NFL after next year. But you, if we were talking about this, this time last year,

if I were Lenora sellers, I would have wanted to sign a one year deal because I, I knew I was going to ball out and would want to be a free agent coming up. It's really going to come down to your leverage. If you don't have a ton of leverage, if you're not a super big recruit, you may end up signing a three or four year deal and you're staying at that school. And that's what happens in business too.

Yeah. People who don't have leverage, take the security and people who want to bet on them. So if I were Pat McAfee, I would do a rolling six month deal and just raise the price every six months. They do have the ability to sign contracts and they have their discretion of how long those terms go, what's going to end up happening is the players they want to ink to a four-year deal are never going to do it and the players they don't want to have on a multi-year deal are going to be the

ones who want to. Which is the same thing that happens in the pros. Yeah and in journals. And life. Yeah. And everywhere. But like that's interesting though, because the number one thing that can tank a team is wasted roster spots. Or roster spots from players who aren't very good. And if you're financially obligated as somebody who's not contributing to your roster. The opportunity cost of paying this person over this person you could have paid

who's now in another place. Yeah. And then that, to me, when you start talking about like how your money is allocated And how your GM is getting paid a lot of money and stuff if your GM signs a bunch of three-year deals a bunch of With a bunch of players who didn't develop properly You don't or aren't playing or get injured and all that stuff Then and then you're gonna start seeing firings and heads rolling because now there's a there's a financial

It's not just wins and losses. You've got a financial financial waste Aspect of which which leads to wins and losses though. Trip with a really good point in the chat. These coaches know exactly how valuable their players are during the game when they make decisions on who to play in high leverage moments. They can do the same with compensation and contractors. Exactly. Exactly. And the players will have representation that understands how valuable they are.

And about college football that has to be acknowledged is they'll come to an agreement when you're signing an 18 year old kid who isn't all the way through puberty there are a lot of things that happen that are outside of the scope of how big is his heart and how good is he at football that have nothing to do with whether or not they develop he's gonna have probably a lot of uh a lot of firsts experiences in that first year in college that can dramatically change his performance in the classroom and on the field. And you can't control that

unfortunately, do with the five star quarterback wants a four year all guaranteed deal coming out of high school. It depends on how bad you want him. It's just it's just like anything else Ari, like, if we go to Shannon Terry and be like, we want a 10 year deal at this amount of money, he's gonna come back and say, I will give you an X year deal at this amount, this lower amount of money.

Like, will you do that? That's how negotiations work. Will you do that today? What's that? You just call Shannon and say, we want a 10 year deal worth X number of dollars. You're my agent. Go to go get it done. All right, I'll work on that. I will. I'll drive a very hard bargain. Are you? I promise. I think the point here is, is that if you're

a five star quarterback, the answer is how bad you want them. It's always very bad. And Bryce Underwood don't give a damn in the chat says, Bryce Underwood got 10. Now Bryce Underwood didn't get $10 million as a freshman. Bryce Underwood has a deal that will pay him that much over the period of time in college. Now under the current system though, if he's awesome, he can raise that price. Yeah. That's what I'm saying.

That will never work. The turtle wheezy says the bust rate for high school recruits is astronomically high, you know, this it's not as astronomically high with the high end recruits as it is with all of them combined. Also, it's why they'll pay those guys less. Yeah. So do you think that a five star defensive edge rusher is going to command less than the third year player

who is semi-productive? No, he'll get more. Because that's the thing. It's like, who's gonna get more in that? Like, here's the question. When Colorado question, let's look, let's say it was all about the guy doesn't understand that he doesn't recruit high schoolers because they just leave so often, you'd rather go get guys that have proven equity that you know, can play. And it's like, well, would you rather have five five star high school freshmen? Or would you rather have three three star transfers that you know can play. And it's like, well, would you rather have five, five-star high school

freshmen or would you rather have three, three-star transfers that you know are pretty good? It's like, that's the dynamic that you're going to be in and how do you allocate your money? Yep. And everybody's going to have a different preference for it. And everybody's going to have a different way that works for them, I think, based on their school. They're gonna attract different types of people. Yeah. Very interesting discussion. Thank you, Kirby Smart, for giving us this prompt, because we did need to talk about this before Monday.

And I think we did it in a way that hopefully did not make your eyes glaze over. But let us talk a little. Yeah, I hope too that people liked that, because I think there's gonna be a lot of that in the next few months. Like, I don't know if it's an avoidable thing at this point. We're not going to do it every day.

We promise. Like we're going to talk football and then we're going to talk football right now, because I, I promised ceilings. Yes. Conversation today. And we're going to have that conversation. We can start with Georgia since we were talking about Georgia, Georgia ceilings, the national championship.

That's easy. Ari, I sent you a list of teams that I feel like we can all agree their ceiling is the national title. I want you to tell me if I'm wrong with anybody on this list. You ready? Sure. Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Texas, Michigan, Notre Dame.

I would have disagreed with you about Clemson a Alabama, Texas, Michigan, Notre Dame. I would have disagreed with you about Clemson a year ago, but not anymore. I'm dreaming of that. Yeah, we're talking about 2025 season, not as a program in general. Then no, no disagreements. Okay. Who did I leave off that you are sure

has a national championship ceiling? Penn State. Okay. I think Penn State. Okay. I think that's coming into the year of Penn State from a roster perspective should be good enough. I mean, aren't they number one in some people's preseason polls? Like I think that like between the running back duo, having a veteran quarterback denied Dennis Sutton, um, if their receivers hit, they always

have good lines, they should be a really good team. And like in this, in this world, they played Ohio State to a one possession game last year at home. They're going to get into the playoff because Penn State would be in the playoff every year since 2014 if it were 12 teams. And they might have like, I guess it all depends on Drew Aller, but I would never rule them out on April 2nd of being a team that's- It depends on the receivers. And we talked to James Franklin about that this week. Yeah. You know, if those transfer receivers produce and then they've got a young tight end that you're super excited about that, I mean, you look at him and like, okay, he looks a lot like Tyler Warren. Um, we know their defense is going to be really good. Their offensive line is incredibly deep. So I think that's, but this is why I want to, I'm glad you brought it up because you were the one who has told me repeatedly that they are not exactly like Ohio State or Georgia

or Alabama in terms of their ceiling as a program. I have disagreed with you, but only, well, let me go back. I disagree with you that they can't be that Penn State for the longest time chose to not have that ceiling. And you heard James Franklin talk about it where he's talking about they have the alignment for the first time in 12 years that he's been banging on the table for. Penn State chose not to care as much about football as Ohio State did. And I, I don't think that was unique to Penn State in the non Columbus big 10 for a lot of years. Cause I think Michigan was like that for a while too.

I think Michigan kind of coming out of the pandemic was like, you know what? No, we're, we're going all in on football. And the results changed. We used to have arguments with people in the Michigan press box about how Michigan didn't care enough about football. Like the reporters said that the Michigan, like in 2020, Michigan reporters would tell you that Michigan fundamentally as a university

did not prioritize football enough. And that completely changed. Right. And you watched Michigan in 2023, the way they responded to all the Connor Stein stuff, the way the president responded. That's an all in on football university now. Yes.

Yes, correct. And then, of course, there's a freshman quarterback who's going to have a pretty good start this year. But I think Penn State is getting their, their president, their current president has been there since 2022. Their AD Pat Kraft has been there since 2022. So they're probably two years behind Michigan on that realization.

But my guess is, now that they've started acting that way, we're gonna see a similar, and maybe we saw it starting last year Because I think I think you're right I think you you put Penn State's roster up against just about anybody's and you feel pretty Good about it. Yeah, I mean I think that you could have made the case about that last year I mean really I mean between Tyler Warren and I mean they had the ball in a tied national Warren and I mean they had the ball in a tied national semi final with two minutes to go. Like you can play for the national title very easily. And like they returned a lot of

players that I think are going to be very important to them. But the thing too about this is like I don't know that Penn State's team that people some people perceive to be the number one team in the country in the offseason would be good enough to win the national title in 2019. Like I think that like, no, my anticipation is, my anticipation is that this team with who they have

is good enough to win it now that Ohio State lost their entire roster basically except two players. And, you know, Michigan, we're not sure what they're gonna be. Oregon should be very good, but they lost a lot of players from their team last year. Like you could say with a straight face right now, I anticipate that Penn State will be the best team in the Big 10, and that's not a joke. So, no question that for their season this year, that should be viewed as a potential ceiling, and I think that's probably the way that James Franklin feels.

Yeah, I think so. So, okay, I'm glad we settled that. So Penn State, add them to the the national title ceiling list. So I'm gonna review Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Texas, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State. The thing that's interesting that Penn State is probably gonna be better than Michigan. Like, like, is Michigan ceiling from their roster? Like if you let go from top to bottom at Michigan's roster right now, I know they've got an exciting young quarterback. But is that okay? Does Michigan belong on the list for 2025?

I think I would move Michigan down a rung. Okay. All right. So let's take Michigan off. Let's see who we're gonna add. Here's a team that made the college football playoff last year that brings back a quarterback that has a lot of hype around him, but they lost some really good players. Tennessee. What is Tennessee's ceiling this year? Hmm. I don't know, man. I think right where you put them probably is my gut. I don't know that I would put them anywhere yet.

We've got to figure out where to put them. Oh, I thought you, those, oh, you started with the ones that are just no doubt about it. I would put them in the second rung probably of like really, really good, but aren't gonna win the national. So we're thinking can make the playoff, can win a game or two in the playoff,

but probably aren't gonna win the title. Tier one is truly the national title. Tier two is could make the playoff. Okay, and could maybe win games in the playoff. Probably one national title tier two is could make the playoff. Okay, and could maybe win games in the playoff. Could maybe. Yeah, right. Yeah, I just don't think they can win four of them. Yeah.

Okay, so that because I think that's an interesting conversation with Tennessee. And it's interesting because if Tennessee had played someone other than Ohio State in the first round of the playoff, I wonder if we'd be having different conversations about them. Going into this year. I have a hard time when a team has a glaring roster weakness. Receiver being the weakness for Tennessee.

What about Penn State then? I think that Penn State did more in the offseason to address their issues than Tennessee did. Am I wrong? No, I don't think that's wrong. That said, I think that Tennessee has a certain player on their team at the receiver position named Mike Matthews, who was a former five star prospect who entered the portal than stayed, who has a chance to break out. And if he turns out to be Calvin Johnson, then that changes. But like, if you have a, like Penn State to me, had the, they were in a one possession game with the ball with two minutes when their receiver hadn't, they hadn't had a single reception from a receiver

in the entire game. Like, so like they've already shown. Right, just imagine if they had one good receiver. Exactly, yeah, I got you. If they had, I mean, they were already on the precipice of it without that. So, but like, I'm not trying to neg Tennessee. I think it's a really huge year for Niko.

Well, Zach in the chat says wide receivers were open for Tennessee. Niko just wasn't hitting them. Not in the Ohio State game they weren't open. I don't think anybody was. I would agree with you in the early season, but I think Niko got better as the season went on. Yeah, and I don't know, I've been trying to scope Rivers facial expressions as I'm

talking about this to see if he's in agreement or not. But, you know, like also to like, maybe a viral moment here, like, I just don't think that Nico in general has lived up to what he was supposed to be yet. And I don't know that I've seen enough out of him to believe or be certain, like, I'm more certain that DJ Lagway is going to be awesome than I am of Nico, right? yet. And I don't know that I've seen enough out of him to believe or be certain. Like, I'm more certain that DJ Lague is going to be awesome than I am of Nico, right? And like, I don't know if you're with me in that boat or not. Though I'm not saying he can't be. I'm just saying, like, I have questions about how, how close... I think this is a conversation that is going on within the Tennessee fan base right now. I don't know about the DJ Lague part of it. But I think this is a legitimate conversation going on within the Tennessee fan base of is Nico going to.

Blossom into the dynamic. You know, first round NFL talent. That he was projected to be coming out of high school, and I think there's a path to that. And I think there's a path to that. Like you have to actually, I think it's interesting because they couldn't get anybody open in the in the Ohio State game. And you saw him when he had to make it some plays with his legs, like combined that making the plays with your legs with some receivers who are getting open and you're hitting them.

That's a really good chance. Like I'm not saying it's not there yet. It's not there yet. Here's how you know that I'm not saying he's close. But it's not there yet. It's not there yet. Here's how you know that I'm not crazy. If you think about how many, by the way, this podcast is going to be three and a half hours because we're going to have breakdowns. Can't be, we got to let JD get on.

Okay, I'll make it quick. How many SEC quarterbacks come to mind in terms of dynamic excitement that are of the same general age range of Nico that you used you talk about before him? Three? Lenore Sellers, DJ Lagway, Garrett Nussmeyer.

And then Arch. And Arch. Before. Yeah, and, and, and Richie in the chat says, lol, he was a redshirt freshman. Richie. Richie. You know what redshirt freshman means? If he's any good, he's leaving after his red shirt sophomore year. so I just be like sometimes

Yeah, lenora sellers was a red shirt freshman too dj lagway was a true freshman Dave in the chat said how does ari not get his ass kicked? He says things in the most condescending way. Do I I don't want to I don't want to be condescending I think i'm way more condescending than you. Yeah, you you get condescending way. Do I? I don't want to, I don't want to be condescending. Oh, I think I'm way more condescending than you. Yeah. You, you get condescending when you're angry. I don't want to be condescending conversationally. I don't think you're, you're being condescending about this. I think you were, you are not saying anything that is not being said on the Volquest message boards right now. Nothing you're saying. You saw moments from him. It's like, wow, like there were moments from Nico last year. I

was like, Wow, like, okay, like there was a pass at the Oklahoma game. I was at that game that he hit. You remember that pass that he hit? Frickin' frozen rope. That was 50, 50 yards down the field. I was like, Holy hell. I remember seeing Nico in a scrimmage last spring, and it was a good, like a good on good scrimmage. And he, the improvisational skills were great. And I was like, okay, this is, this is what Tennessee didn't have in that year with Joe Milton as a starter. And then you get to the season and there were times when he was overthrowing receivers and it just wasn't quite connecting.

I felt like as the season went on, he started connecting a little more. I, I still don't think he's put it all together. And my thing with Nico is if he does put it all together, that's a really good quarterback who is gonna be a first round draft pick. But like the problem is I have already seen DJ Lagway put it all together against good SEC teams. And he only started six games last year.

against good SEC teams and he only started six games last year. Yeah, you know and. Having good weapons helps and I don't know. I mean they had one of the best running backs in college football last year. I don't know if that counts as a weapon. Dylan Sampson was absolutely weapon and Tennessee's offensive line is going to be different this year. Now it it could be better. Because you've got some some good like Lance Hurd has said he was hurt a lot of last year. Like if he's fully healthy, that's a really good athlete at left tackle. We'll see if David

Sanders Jr., the number one offensive line recruit in the country, winds up starting at right tackle. I think there's a good chance of that. So. Yeah, I think that we're on a on a pretty rational plane here, and like there were times during last year's season where I thought Tennessee's had a chance to win the national title, especially in the first half of the year. Yeah, so I'm not saying that that can happen again. They didn't really outside. Are they in the can win the national title club or do we think they're in the can make the playoff and win a game or two? I would safely put them in playoff, win a game or two at the moment. Okay. Let's stay in the sec. Let's look at LSU because I think they're, I think they're in the same boat, but if they really hit in the portal, I think they jumped to the National Title

Ceiling group. I think that they do jump in. I would put them in the national title ceiling. Okay. I think that you got them too low. And I think I mean, like I was talking to a few people who said, who told me when I was on the phone with them last week that like LSU hit home runs in the portal that we don't know about yet. So like if that if that's true, then everybody's excited about their portal So like, if that, if that's true, then LSU. Everybody's excited about their portal class. Like, people who play against LSU were like, Yeah, they did a really good

job. Yeah, they did a really good job. So, and then you add Garrett Nussmeyer into the mix. And the fact that I think Brian Kelly's a pretty good coach. And then I'm gonna go back to Tennessee for 30 seconds, or 3 seconds. I think that Josh Hypel is an incredible coach. So I didn't say that during that rant. I think it's possible that they they overdo it. And I guess like the notion that they could reach a higher ceiling means that their ceiling is titles. So I don't know how you want to handle that. But I think that LSU is starting at a further plane than Tennessee at the moment. Yeah, and there now, here's what I want to see from LSU. This is this, we will know pretty quickly. Like they play Clemson right off the bat,

they play Florida in week three. We will know pretty quickly whether that rebuilt offensive line can generate a run game, can generate a push in the run game. If they can, you are talking about a national title contender. Yeah. But that has been the problem. Like even with as good of a line as they had, it didn't feel like they could really run the ball last year. So especially when they absolutely needed to. So that's going to be the tell right there. If they come out and they can run the ball on Clemson and they can run the ball on Florida early,

yeah, get ready for a pretty special season. If that's a struggle, you might be sitting there dealing with the same, like they're not going to be bad, but it'll still be the same level of frustration as before. I'm dreading what we're going on this. And I don't know what to say. I know we're, you're going to say a team and I just have no idea. Go ahead.

Oh boy. I don't even know which team I've got a long list here. I know. Let's, let's go back to the big 10. I think I know the answer to this. Cause I don't, I don't think we're going to put this team, the national title ceiling, but I don't want to talk think we're going to put this team the national title ceiling. But I want to talk about Nebraska. Where's Nebraska like can Nebraska compete for a playoff berth? Yes.

I think you're right to I think I think they could compete to playoff berth. Uh, first round exit type ceiling to me. Which I think if you ask Nebraska fans, they would take that. That's very acceptable progress. That's up pretty well for them, doesn't it? This year if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, it's not bad.

And this is a team we wanna see what Dylan Raioli is in year two. He got thrown into the mix as a true freshman. You tend to see the biggest jump between the first and the second year. This is, this is that. Yeah. Having Michigan, I think that Michigan and who they are is going to go a long way in determining how the rest of the big 10 does. If Michigan is badass Michigan, they're going to kick a lot of people in the

groin on the way. If they're okay Michigan, Nebraska could conceivably win that game, especially considering the fact that it's at home. And if you look at their schedule here, there are only two games right here that you see that jump out to you that are like, well, Nebraska absolutely is probably at this point not going to win that. And that's Michigan and Penn State, and even Michigan is iffy to me. Yeah I don't know that Michigan's a sure thing. I think USC is one that by the time it's played we might feel differently about and we're going to talk about USC in a second anyway but I think Iowa's going to be good this year but yeah I think Nebraska should be competitive against most of this schedule and

if they've hit in the transfer port, now they lost a lot of their defensive players to the NFL into the portal. But then they were very aggressive in the portal, too. So I am very intrigued by by Matt rule, your three of Nebraska, because I do think there's a chance we could be talking about them, you know, maybe going into the Iowa game at the end of the

season as a playoff contender and maybe that game against because Iowa might be in the same boat like that game might be an elimination game. Yeah. Dylan Raiola is an exciting young player. He looks acts talks and behaves like Patrick Malms. Just doesn't play like him. He doesn't play like him.

So if he plays like Kirk Cousins, that'd be pretty good. There's a lot on his score. Kirk Cousins was a very good Big Ten quarterback, so yeah. You'll take it. He plays with Kirk Cousins in college, then they have a shot. Um, I don't think he has to be Superman. Um, no, I don't either. There's a lot of expectations that are put on

Nebraska shoulders as a result of his arrival. Um, and there is a aspect of his game that scares the crap out of me in terms of his long term development, which is inability to operate under pressure. Um, and I think that that's a, I

guess not like the number one thing, um, that you get negged for in your pre draft evaluations is if you can't operate in a dirty pocket or you correct a pressure. And that's a good college quarterbacks have clean pockets. So and most NFL quarterbacks deal with dirty pockets most of the time. Yeah, so you got to be able to do it. There's people who think that I'm disrespecting Kirk Cousins at Michigan State. No, I that's why disrespecting Kirk Cousins at Michigan State.

No, that's why I said Kirk Cousins at Michigan State is good. You will take that. Like that, they have a shot to this is what we're talking about. Can they make the playoff? If he doesn't play like that or get to a really good big 10 quarterback,

that was just the first one that popped into my head, then they're going to be cooked. So we'll see. I hope that he has been able to work on his game. And the whole thing that blows my mind, and we've all leaned into the Patrick Mahomes comparison, is that the number one thing that Patrick Mahomes does that really is incredible.

And if you watch the Chiefs play, is the way he extends plays, runs around in circles, and either gets a first down with his legs or always find somebody who's open like I think Dylan Raiola is cooked. If he's got two people in his face. And if you watch the film and go back and like I never thought this or knew this going into last year. Then someone told me to look out for it was the only thing I could see while watching him play, and I don't know if you can get better at that. So my I'm very excited. But you you might in this offense, Dana Holgersen is the offensive coordinator. He came in late last season, but it's the air raid. Now, obviously, Dana has altered. It's not the pure air raid that Mike Leach and Hal Mumey ran. But one of the reasons Patrick Holmes is such a good improvisational quarterback is he did play in the air raid in college. And the way you practice the air raid is just repetition with your receivers over and over again, so that you have an almost telepathic connection where they're gonna find open space

and you're gonna hit them when they find the open space. It's what you see Patrick Holmes do with Travis Kelsey all the time. That's probably more what Dylan Riehl is gonna be asked to do this year. Yeah. We've never seen him asked to do it. He might be good at it. So I just like, I don't need people to, to hear criticisms or doubts as translating that to we think he sucks. Like hear what we're saying. Yeah, please. You make bigger jumps between your one and your two than anywhere else

So I'm saying the thing that stuck out to me about his game last year that I think he needs to get better at Is being more elusive and calm under pressure Does that does that mean he sucks? No, it's not it's not at all what I said Let's move to another big ten team USC now USC had some interesting news yesterday this does not affect the 2025 season but USC flipped a defensive tackle recruit from Oregon USC now USC had some interesting news yesterday. This does not affect the 2025 season, but USC. Flipped a defensive tackle recruit from Oregon. Who goes to modern day? Like that's a big deal modern day that the powerhouse in Orange County that used to supply USC with a lot of the best players. Uh, they've not recruited locally as well.

Lately, but to get a guy like that, to flip from Oregon is a big deal. Now it does not change anything for 2025 because he's a 2026 player, but Ari, I ask you where is USC, which was seven and five in the regular season last year. Lost a lot of one possession games. Where is the ceiling for USC in 2025? Nine wins. OK, so no playoff. But a good season, a better season they had last year. I just kind of I'm offended that you would even look me in the eyes on this podcast and ask me how far you think I've made this mistake before I'm not doing it again. I'm still working off that meal, paying 18 percent interest on that meal that I had to take on you.

For those who don't know, on the day that Lincoln Riley went to USC, Ari and I made a bet that his team would make, Ari bet that Lincoln's team would make the college football playoff in his first three seasons, and I took the negative on that. And the prize was a thousand bucks, and I basically made Ari take me and River to a very fancy steakhouse in Nashville to pay that off. Which was a really nice gesture, because it was better than just handing over cash.

I got to at least enjoy it. And River said that was the nicest steakhouse he's ever been to, so I'm happy I could be there like a dad taking a college kid to dinner. You know, like, you know, like when your friend's dad would come into town while you were in college, you get to go to like claim jumper and was like, oh yeah, let's go. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. For those who are not from Arizona or Southern California claim jumper quality, quality, upscale casual dining. Are they even open anymore? Claim Jumper. I have no idea.

We were just talking about modern day in Santa Ana, the mall there in Santa Ana had a great Claim Jumper. I used to go there when I would go to Orange County to do Jim Rohn's TV show. So. Claim Jumper is the type of restaurant that it's like high class chilies, right? Is that how you?

Right, it's just a churched up chilies. Yeah. But their food is incredible and I think you're out 5,000 calories when you walk out of that place. Like it's like the type of place where it's like the French fry servings are like 800 calories per 10 fries.

Oh yeah. But it was delicious. Anyway. On to USC though. So you think a nine win season, which look, I think if you're a USC fan and they win nine games, You should be happy with that It's not what you wanted when you hired Lincoln Riley, but you got a you got to start somewhere disgusting

I'm sorry Tell me that is not a Manageable schedule though. I mean, yes, Notre Dame in Oregon and Michigan But if you win one of those. You're feeling pretty good. Yeah, I mean, I feel like their ceiling would be. 9 and three here. I mean, Illinois is going to be very good playing. UCLA is always a tough thing. Nebraska. We just said could be a 910 win team like you know, it's not we make

this mistake every off-season and like You know, what are the three big games can they win all three minutes like well, you know on September 20th we're gonna be in a 14 13 game with you know, Michigan State that we're not seeing coming so like I think that they might be able to win two of those three or Win one of those three but then also are we certain they going to be able to avoid being upset at any point? But like USC has invested in its defense. I think that it has gotten much better under Danton Lynn. And I think that that defense that they put out on the field last year would have been good enough to get them to the playoff the year before,

had they all, you know, been on the same team at the same time. But like I now am kind of concerned about whether they're offensively going to be able to be where they need to be. Like, I mean, do you feel good about Jade Myava? Do you feel good about the offensive weapons? I know Jacoby Lane could be a breakout player this year, but they lost. Yeah, Jacoby Lane's really good. I think their receiving corps is going to be fine. I realize they lost several players from their receiving corps, but they didn't lose their top two receivers. And Lincoln Riley always seems to be to have a few receivers in the banana stand,

so yeah, I mean Lane had 12 touchdowns last year, so like he's a productive player. And by the way. Let's throw that USC schedule up there again. We do have the potential for the funniest upset in the history of the world. Oh wow, they're playing Clay Hilton.

Yes, we too. Georgia Southern. I don't think that's going to happen, but oh my God, if it did like how did that the history of the world. Oh wow, they're playing Clay Helton. Yes, week two, Georgia Southern. I don't think that's gonna happen, but oh my God, if it did. Is that the coincidence? Like how did that happen? Of all the places that Clay Helton. I think they were already scheduled

before Clay Helton got the job. Small world. Or maybe it's part of his, who knows? Could it be part of his buyout? I gotta look up when they scheduled that game. I think it was scheduled beforehand. Yeah. But all right, Ari,

we're gonna, I think we can continue this ceiling discussion for various teams throughout the off season. Like this, we should revisit, I've got a bigger list and we can't get to them all and do them, you know, give them proper due today. Take over hosting duties for three seconds and ask you one before we get out of here. Yes, let's go. The one I was afraid of.

Florida. The ceiling for Florida is a playoff berth and maybe win some games. Okay. I don't well shoot. It's hard. Because if they make the playoff against the schedule that they have, they probably could win the playoff right?

Now here. OK, you can't say they're going to want a national or they have a national title. See the floor holes right? The floor for Florida is low. Florida is a variable. Yeah, yeah, Florida is a wide split between ceiling. If I could get you to say, because I don't know if I'm convinced that they're not a national championship ceiling. Well, OK, it's sort of it's just a logical progression as we put up Florida schedule.

If they can go 10 and two against this schedule, yes, they can probably beat that combination of teams in the playoff to win a national title. Because they'll have already beaten teams like that. I really hope that Florida doesn't go six and six next year because we're going to look really stupid. Because we are, I am drinking the Florida Kool-Aid, man. And like, I'm just, I am. Yeah, okay Florida Kool-Aid man. And like I'm just I am.

Yeah, okay. We'll do these, you know, as we go. We're always looking for segments and it's fun. But like Florida to me is like the of all the teams in the country has the lowest basement in the highest ceiling of any team, right? It is the widest split between like the you could fire your coach or your coach could win the national title. It's wild. Wild. All right. One more thing, though. Speaking of coaches and jobs, one of our favorite coaches has a new gig. Lane Kiffin's teaching a

Pilates class! Do you think I can do Pilates? I think anybody can do Pilates? I think anybody can do Pilates. No, no Pilates as a big person is probably very difficult, right? It's all about body balance and like, you know, core strength. Yeah, I think it would it would be ugly to start for both of us. I mean, like I walk past the Pilates studio at the gym pretty much every day on my way because it's right next to the stairwell where you go up to where the free weights are.

And those look like medieval torture devices. But every time I see the people coming out of the Pilates classes, they look refreshed, they look happy, they look strong. I think I can take some. Pilates is, from what I've never done a Pilates class, but Pilates is low impact strength training, right? So it's not like HIIT. You go in there and it's very

difficult, but you don't like, you're not out of breath. Like, it's just kind of like a, I think you probably get out of breath a little bit, but I don't, I don't think you're pounding your joints in the same way you would. Dude, if you would've, if you would've seen the workout that I went through this morning and got through, you would be really proud. Like, I've come a long way in the last year. It was really, really difficult. I think I could do this. And now the question that I have is, can anybody sign up for this and are we gonna do it? I think we have to, we have to.

Dave's here, it's marketable yoga, isn't it? No, it is not yoga. Pilates and yoga are two completely different. I have taken yoga classes. These are, this is very different. My understanding of what it is, is that it's like you can tort your body and you like use.

Well, they have machines, like they're like reformers. It's like you lay down on your stomach and then you use your leg to move the thing back and forth. Like you're like doing like stretching and all these. I don't know, I've never done it, but I think it would be fun to do with him. Do you think he'd let us bring a camera crew in there?

No, he doesn't like to be on camera, but he might let us take the class, which I'm all for that. I legitimately would do it. And like, if this was three years ago, remember that one time when we had a bet and it was a football game and I don't remember what game it was, but you're like, the punishment for you

was to do 25 push-ups on camera. Yes. I had like legitimate anxiety about that during the week. And now you would knock that out so easily? Now I can do it. But like back then, if you would have said, let's go take his Pilates class, my chubby butt wouldn't want to do it.

I'm like into this new world of like, let's try stuff. Let's do things. I'm glad. I'm glad. We're like into this new world of like, let's try stuff. Let's do things. I'm glad I'm glad you know, we're gonna get you we can get you running to this hit classes that I've been taking, there's a running element to it. That's awesome. I'm terrible at it. But but I am trying to be a functional person who can get through any workout

class a person does. So like, I would try this. I, I would take it seriously to you don't go in there joking around like I would like to reach out to lane see if we could I'm sure it's gonna be very popular class. So we might have to book out to like July but we'll see if we can find it. Yeah. All right. Big Day tomorrow scheduled to be joined by the great Greg McElroy you You see him on ESPN.

You hear him on his Always College Football podcast, former Alabama starting quarterback, won a national title as Alabama starting quarterback, understands the unique pressures of that position better than almost anybody. And he had a great episode this week about, where he was talking about some of the quarterback competitions going on, and it's always fun to listen

to him talk about it because, let's just be real, he understands it better than just about anybody. So, talk to him tomorrow, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.