Andy & Ari On3 - “Lane Kiffin isn’t acting like a coach who plans to stay”

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

As Lane Kiffin watch continues, it's all eyes on Starkville early Black Friday as the Ole Miss Rebels take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Davis-Wade Stadium. It's a Megaboard Wednesday episode and we take a look at the message boards with OM Spirit ahead of the Egg Bowl, and it seems like Rebel fans may start to expect some bad news following this game. Watch here as Andy & Ari dive deep into this situation surrounding Lane Kiffin and the coaching carousel. (0:00) On Today's Episode(1:35) Presenting Sponsor(4:32) Intro: Lane Kiffin with Ole Miss(16:05) Miami + CFP Rankings = Injustice?(32:25) Keys to victory: The Game(41:05) Is USC satisfied with Lincoln Riley?(54:54) What if DJ Durkin and Auburn win the Iron Bowl?(59:40) Conclusion After the Lane Kiffin discussion, Andy & Ari dive into the Miami message boards to go through Hunter Yurachek's comments on Miami's ranking compared to Notre Dame's. Do you think Ari is right? What is the right way to go about this? Read Ari's entire column here: https://www.on3.com/news/miami-is-getting-hit-with-the-biggest-college-football-playoff-committee-injustice/ Later, the fellas go through keys to victory between Ohio State-Michigan. Which team wins The Game? Find out here why the run game may be the deciding factor. Afterwards, Andy & Ari go west to see how USC fans feel about Lincoln Riley after coming off the loss to Oregon this past weekend. Should Trojan fans be excited about 2026? To wrap things up, an Auburn fan asks an important question regarding this week's Iron Bowl: "Won’t that be a bad look if we turn around and announce the hiring of Sumrall if DJ wins next weekend? Andy & Ari dive into this topic here. Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/CWatch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/_OgVY8VIiXM Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3, it is a mega board Wednesday. That's right. We check the best of the message boards throughout the On 3 network. We've got a Lane Kiffin update from the OM Spirit message board. That's our Ole Miss site. Things in Oxford, they don't seem to be hopeful right now. They don't seem to be real hopeful to Elaine Kiffin's staying. Florida and LSU message board is different.

Ole Miss message boards, little pessimistic right now. Also, from our Miami message board, at Canesport, they are discussing what Hunter Eurecheck, the college football playoff selection committee chair, said about Miami's comparison with Notre Dame. Are the hurricanes cooked? Plus, from our Michigan message board, from the Wolverine, from the fort at the Wolverine,

The winner of the rushing battle wins the game. An interesting fact about the Michigan-Ohio State game. If you look at these two teams, it makes the 10-point spread seem a little big. Plus, from our USC board, Lincoln Riley, the debate among USC fans. Is he succeeding? Is he not? Do you want him? Do you want to keep him?

Do you want to get rid of him? they're actually having that discussion on the USC boards. We'll talk about that and more on today's Andy and R&3 presented by BetMGM. We are proud to be sponsored by BetMGM. All the lines and totals we use come from BetMGM. Here is how you join and you can get up to a $1,500 first bet offer. The way it works, you download that BetMGM app. You sign up using the code CFB.

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and make this season one for the history books. Make it legendary with BetMGM. See bedmgmgm.com for terms 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers are not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in the U.S. Call 8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y. 4673369 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona. Call 1-800-327-5-0-0-0 in Massachusetts.

Call 1-800-bets off in Iowa or 1-800-9-81-0-2-3 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days. in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. It is a megaboard Wednesday, and we have lots of great threads on all the message boards

across the On3 network, but some of them are extra spicy. And Ari, I want to start at O.M. Spirit, because of course, we were probably going to be at O.M. Spirit, the Bingle Tiger or Gators online. One of the three places that is watching every move Lane Kippen makes. This one started by Ben Garrett, Spirit Ben over at O'M Spirit, one of the guys who runs the site. And Ben sounds out on the lane train. He sounds like he has stepped off the line. lane train the headline of the thread this isn't 40 chess lane kiffin isn't acting like a coach who plans to stay and this is a story that been put up uh that's attached to a podcast he did and it is uh a laundry list of stuff that has happened that makes you believe that when lane kiffin says something on saturday that it will be either ls u or florida and not omis you know what i would love to do play 40 chess one day i read that a lot what does 40 chess look like

just you know you got to be like a well i mean i think the knights can actually like cut your head off so i don't know if i want to do that oh okay um yeah it's ackham's razor right not pavlov's dog it is ockham's razor yes the the most logical thing is probably the thing you should expect um if you took away the fact that lane kiffin is a different cat which we keep saying the different cat with the quotes and you just submitted like ralph you know a guy named ralph and then okay i doesn't mean like ral wigham or something or ral rousseau i don't know just a guy named ralph or steve whatever and steve was doing all the things that lane kiffin is doing you didn't give him

him the benefit of the doubt of being quirky or being or being different. Are you saying that if we looked at Lane Kiffin's history and saw that it almost always ends badly, that we should probably guess that it'll end badly for Ole Miss? Yeah, I think the only reason

why we're thinking that this could be some sort of, to steal Ben's verbiage, 40 chess, is because Lane Kiffin is eccentric. But if you were to follow the same tea leaves of any coach, even if you excuse his entire history as a coach. The breadcrumbs are leading you right to the result. Now, I don't know if that's going to Florida or if that's going to LSU, but the actual

actions that he is illustrating are very clear that he is leaving to me. Now, I don't, I'm not going to say that he is because, again, we can go back to the fact that he is strange. He is a troll. He likes to mess with people. He likes to be a showman. But those are the only things that you can lay your hat on and say, hey, this is how it could work out well for Ole Miss.

But there's an overwhelming amount of circumstantial evidence that point to his departure. This week's SEC Shorts was especially hilarious. They don't usually miss on SEC Shorts, but it was basically a Lane Kiffin X support group. So it was Tennessee. It was USC. It was the Raiders. And the guy from the Raiders was like, I don't even know why I'm here.

well the thing that's so interesting about the support group thing too is that like i don't tennessee was pissed he was there for a short amount of time and they were excited about the future but it's not like he left anybody as successful as he's been at old miss that's the thing like he's leaving on the verge of a playoff berth if he's leased i don't even remember i was like 10 years old when he left tennessee what was their record his first year didn't they lose a bunch of games that year yeah they were about 500 they but they almost beat Alabama. They played Florida fairly close. They're seven and six. They weren't bad. But the Tennessee reaction was more about loyalty and being of all for life than it was about

the production that he had. And the thing was it made sense because the USC job opened and that was clearly the job he wanted. So it wasn't surprising when USC came after him that he took the job. But if he was only surprising to Tennessee fans who couldn't believe anybody would ever leave Tennessee. Well, the question I guess I'll go back to with the one. wanting the USC job is, is at the time, you would know this because you were further along in your career. I was very young reporter at this time. But what was the thing about the USC job that drew, that drew Lane Kiffin there? Was it the lights, the glitz, the glamour, the LA of it? Was it the Reggie? No, he'd been the OC there. I know, but there was just to continue it,

trying to continue Pete Carroll. He wanted to be Pete Carroll. Yeah. So if you think about wanting to be something or wanting to be in that type of environment, if that is still a part of him, I could see why Florida or LSU would be more attractive. Now, none of those places are near a sexy beach. Now, Florida is a few hour drive away. No offense to your home. I know you can get an hour and be in some pretty nice beaches, but it's not in L.A. Right, it's not. So, like, I'm just trying to read the tea leaves of like, what does he want if he won't tell us? And I think my conclusion of what Lane Kiffin wants is to have the best possible job that you can have from a notoriety standpoint while simultaneously checking the box of being able to win a national

title there, which comes with the territory of that. So I don't know if Ole Miss is the final chapter to borrow his, you know, his verbiage and his tweets and all that stuff. But it doesn't add up to me. Like a return isn't adding up to me. And if he does return, then it'll be like, oh, but that's Lane Kiffin. But in terms of what we have? What do we have? You know, if you're looking for us to us for answers, what are we, what are I going to tell these people?

So I'm looking at this thread and it's interesting because it feels like a lot of the Ole Miss fans have gone through the stages of grief already. And so like Dental Rebel here says, personally I'd be happy if he left. I've said and continue to say he's fools gold. Feel free to quote me. What does he want?

He spit the bit last year, barely beat Kentucky, LSU in Washington State. If, and that's a big if he wins it all, he will be lucky. He's hated by multiple fan bases now. Also, if he leaves, he's not winning it all at Ole Miss anyway. He'd have to win it all somewhere else. And I think part of this is that I think Lane Kiffin was surprised at the idea that Ole Miss wouldn't let him coach the playoff. if he left i think he he went into all this thinking oh i might take another job but it's cool i'm still going to coach the playoff here yeah but it also doesn't strike me as a good faith

attempt to keep somebody because if i were lane kiffin and i were told that that would make me want to leave that doesn't make me want to stay they're not trying but what if they're not trying to make him stay what if he's already told them he's leaving then it doesn't matter how he feels about it. Yeah. What's amazing to me is that he was surprised by this when he is literally the only person whoever did the, I'm going to be a head coach,

I'm a coordinator right now, I'm going to be the coordinator through the playoff, and then I'll become the head coach in the new place. He's the only one who ever got fired in the middle of that. The only one. And the coach that fired him also said it's not his fault and it's a calendar issue on TV this weekend. Yeah.

which was kind of regard to me. Yeah. Was it a calendar issue then, Nick? I don't think so. So here's the one thing I'm also going to say. Uh-huh. If you are Florida or you are LSU and you're putting all this money on the table. Zumo, five years from now, seven years from now.

Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield. It's all I'm going to say. right if someone has done this to other people they'll do it to you yeah if you met your wife when because she was cheating on her husband and then she cheats on you different stakes obviously yeah i mean kiffin's not doing anything sinister but if this is his m o what's going to happen when the uh arizona cardinals call him in three years in his living room. You want to punish the man?

I mean, that's, if old miss fans are mad, that's how you punish him. He takes the Arizona Cardinals job in five years. Why would that punish them? No, it punish his lane. Oh, yeah. Well, I think the Arizona Cardinals

would be an attractive job. Just because you want to live in Scottsdale in a mansion. I saw the picture. If you didn't see the picture of Cliff Kingsbury, searched. I've seen the picture. Yeah.

That's enough for me. He's going to have a nice house wherever he lives. He's rich. I've been to Gainesville a few times. I don't think that house exists in Gainesville. Is there a mountain anywhere near you? There are no mountains in Gainesville. There are lots of alligators.

I like Gainesville. It's a nice town. I do. I mean, it's, it's no Norman, Oklahoma or Los Angeles. Yeah. There's a wawa there. There's a lot of wawas there. There's like six wawas here.

I went to three of them the last time I was there Though they're all out of the gobbler right now The gobbler supplies have been gobbled up I went to crisis What's the main drag on Florida's University? There's a Wawa University Avenue

Well though you went to one on Archer Road Yeah Yeah I parallel parked for Wawa And let me tell you I don't parallel park For anything but I was looking for something specific And they didn't have it on

Oh you went to the one on university Across from campus That's dedication right there It was the closest one on the way back to your house from the airport. I got you. I got you. So we will see what happens to Lane, whether he's searching for Wawa's in Gainesville or whether he's in Baton Rouge doing his coach's show at T.J. Ribs.

We're staying in Ole Miss. But staying in Ole Miss feels far less likely at this point. It sure does, buddy. It sure does. Yeah, we'll see. It doesn't make Friday any less compelling because, you know, listen, he'll come back and there'll be an awesome story or he'll leave and it'll be a train wreck. Either way, it's going to be crazy. Cinema.

Exactly. Absolute cinema. Yes. Speaking of cinema, before we started recording, I can see you, you can see me in this program that we used to stream the show. and I pop on, and all I hear is Ari just furiously typing. And Ari, can you type a little bit just so the people know how that sounds? Type for us. You hear that?

That's not a typewriter. That's his laptop. That poor laptop is just getting parsed. I don't know if it's the stubby fingers. I was actually typing. I've got some columns in the hopper. Well, that's the thing. You were especially fired up.

And that's why, so I went to the CaneSport message board because I knew you were fired up about the Miami thing and the Notre Dame thing and what Hunter Eurocheck said about it in the college football playoff ranking reveal on Tuesday night. Hunter Eurocheck, you know, he talks to Reese Davis and he does a teleconference reporter. And so I immediately went to Cane Sport, our Miami site,

and on Gary Furman's War Room, the main board. Matt Showdell, the managing editor of Canesport, posted a thread. More from the committee on how they compared Miami and Notre Dame. And it's a quote, ask how the system works when comparing Miami and Notre Dame. Your check said, there are grouping teams compared throughout the rankings. Notre Dame in Miami, you have the head-to-head, but that's only one data point. The committee felt as you watch Notre Dame on film, watch their games throughout the year. They have consistent, even in the early season games, they lost by three and one point to Miami, Texas, A&M.

Miami, it appears they're starting to look like the team that started five and oh. So we compare a number of things looking at teams that are closely ranked together. You have some teams between Miami and Notre Dame, such as Alabama, BYU that we are also comparing to Miami as well. R. You took that to mean they are now comparing Miami, Notre Dame head to head, and they still don't think Miami needs to be ahead of Notre Dame. I didn't take that to me. That's what he said, right?

Like, am I misunderstanding that? Well, and the rankings say what they say, too. Yeah. So I don't know if I'm misinterpreting that. Yeah, Miami is now number 12, but that's still three spots below Notre Dame. I slept with my contacts last night, and my eyes are a little bit bloodshot.

I might pop a vessel here, Andy. The floor is yours. I'm just going to ask you a straight up question before I start cooking. And we don't know what's going to happen because Miami still has a ranked opponent to play. So if you beat that ranked opponent, I don't know what happens a week from now.

We don't know what's going to happen on Friday. I don't, but if we get to the end of the road here, and this is the result, to me, that is the single biggest injustice in the history of the college football rankings. Now, you might jump out and say, Florida, state, and Alabama, there's a article framed up on my wall here

from the New York Times. times front page of the sports section and I'm boasting yes I am committee reveals ugly truth this was always a beauty contest a column written by me on how they got that wrong but the difference between that situation and this situation is is that if they would have taken florida state then that might have also been the wrong decision and the other way there was no winning in that situation that was an impossible situation with four spots and five teams that were worthy This is the first time that I can remember them making a decision comparing the teams using all the metrics and the data and the results of the games and flat out getting it wrong. Is there any other instance?

And you tell me, save me for me, because I've got Notre Dame fans firing me up. They think I'm upset about Notre Dame getting in. Let me say this. Notre Dame is a very good team who could make a run. This isn't about whether or not I think they're good. They're clearly good. But is there another instance in the 10 years or 11 years prior to this where they had a decision to make with the results of the games and made the wrong one? And do you think that I'm right about this?

I do think you're right about this because I think if Notre Dame had Alabama's wins or Georgia's wins, then we're not having a discussion about this. They would have enough quality wins that their resumes would be appreciably different. And that's the part that I don't think people have those quality wins. They have two quality losses. The best thing about Notre Dame's resume, outside of the win over USC, which remains 17. Right. And Miami has a better best win than Notre Dame does because Miami beat Notre Dame. But the best thing that they did outside of that was lose close games.

Right. And that's the first time ever. And like I know the committee operates differently. I do. I get it. Every year there's new people, new ways of looking at it. Obviously, they introduce new data metrics into the equation this year that the SEC stunt for during the offseason. I get all that.

I also get that the computers love Notre Dame. But is it a coincidence that Notre Dame looks much better and seems to be humming at the right time because they're playing an schedule filled with drivel? I mean, if you think about some of their wins, I mean, what are we talking about here? We're talking about Boston College. We're talking about Purdue, Arkansas, Syracuse. These are bad teams. They're not like not good. They're bad teams.

Of course they're going to get better. Of course they're going to look awesome. Of course you're going to pass the eye test. I cannot for the life. And if you think that like the whole deal is just Miami beat Notre Dame and that's it. It's not just that. They've got comparable resumes. And the teams that Miami lost to aren't even that bad.

One's ranked in the top 21. And the other one has been ranked all year. It's not like they lost the Florida State. They lost the teams that are in the top 35. I'm going to play devil's advocate, though. Please. Be honest, if Miami and Notre Dame played today on a neutral site, who would you pick to win the game? I would pick Notre Dame to win the game.

And that is what Notre Dame fans are going to say, and that is what anybody else who agrees with this decision is going to say. What's my record against the spread this year? It's really bad. Is it 30 games below 500? Who gives a shit what I think? Who gives a shit what you think? But the thing is, if you asked me who has a good record against the spread this year, I would say the same thing.

I would pick Notre Dame. Is 65, 52, and 3 good enough to make a decision based on what you think rather than the data? It's a hell of a lot better than yours. No, it's great record. You're doing great. I'm not coming down. I'm saying, if, okay, if you took a hundred people who watched lots of college football, who've watched every, you know, who.

Just morning, noon, night, every Saturday, watch every game. And you said, who wins if Miami and Notre Dame play on a neutral field right now? How many of them are going to tell you Miami wins? A lot of them. I don't know. No, 90% of them will say that Notre Dame wins. Yeah, you know where we're going on Friday? We are going to Detroit.

You know what we're staying at? You ever been inside or looked at it on the outside? I'm not. Beautiful structure. I think it's as close to a Vegas vibe as you can get outside of Vegas. Beautiful structure, beautiful company, beautiful building. You think that they made that beautiful building because everybody in the public in their notions are correct all the time? I get what you're saying. I'm trying to explain to you why what we think is elementary is more complicated. I because I know what you're saying and I understand because I agree with you and the reason why I played a game their resumes are very similar and you're taking the team that lost and putting it ahead of the team that won which doesn't make sense and if your reasoning for that is what you're saying then you're saying what we think will happen in the future which isn't part of the criteria or what they're supposed to be doing it's it's the high price. It's the hypothetical wins that we always joke about when SEC honks are saying this team would be better than this team would be, all these SEC teams would be better.

It's just not an SEC team this time. This is the first time in 11 years of covering this that I feel like a team is being personally wronged by the committee. What makes you so mad, I think, is that it is now dawned on you. And I've been trying to tell you this for weeks. They're not putting Miami ahead of Notre Dame. They're not. It makes me mad because I feel like we are all driving out on the street and somebody erased the markers on the road.

That's what I feel like. I feel like what we usually have come to expect and how the system works and how we've navigated that. We think the games need to matter, and they, and I get it because the part I don't like about this is you essentially could have just simulated the entire season on your PlayStation. What the hell was the point of playing the game in the first place? And I made the joke before, but if I were Miami, I said this to you before the show started. I wouldn't even play next year. I would cancel it.

But they can't, they can't do that because it's part of the ACC agreement in Notre Dame. If they were in a different conference, yes, they could cancel the Notre Dame game. I would cancel. But they can't do that. And I understand that there are other things that are gained by playing Notre Dame, obviously. And then here's the point, too, that a lot of people are making. If Miami would have played Rice instead of Notre Dame in week one, would Miami be in the conversation? Would they be at number 18 or 19?

And you're like waving your head no, like you're assuming it as if Utah is some sort of juggernaut that's been beating the shit out of good teams? Like there are other teams that have played nobody right next to them. So what makes you shake your head no? If they played rice instead of Notre Dame, they would be below with the wins they have. They would be below Utah, Vanderbilt, Michigan. They might be ahead of Texas. Yeah.

So they'd be four spots. So they'd be far away from Notre Dame. They wouldn't be anywhere near Notre Dame. No, I know. So their entire schedule is propped up by Notre Dame, whose entire schedule is propped up by bad losses. That's wild. No, by good losses.

sorry yeah good losses sorry my bad but yes this is the thing that used to drive people crazy and it's i find it interesting because it's all the stuff that people use to criticize the SEC teams and think the SEO the SEC wants to win all these hypothetical matchups that and again i'm telling you right now this is the thing the SEC and the big 10 push for to get more of their teams in and it is helping Notre Dame now it's not i don't think it's screwing an SEC or big 10 team though it could ultimately depending on what happens with Alabama and Michigan. But I do find it somewhat funny

that they pushed for an insistence on these predictive rankings. They're getting it, and it didn't help any of their teams. It's helping Notre Dame. Yeah. I wouldn't be nearly as wound up about this if, like, Miami beat Bama. No, sorry.

I'm trying to think of a team that's not ahead of them that would have given them a lot. of credit like if Miami beat Michigan Michigan or something and that because I still think that if Miami would have beaten Michigan their number one they'd have the same record with a better win than Notre Dame like the head to head thing is what drives me insane because we're supposed to be parsing through what's what would happen if these two teams played while ignoring what happened when these two teams played it just is just it's too low hanging fruit to me And I understand the arguments.

Well, one team's gotten better as the year went on. Well, one team has progressively played worse teams that the year's gone on. And their entire strength of schedule metrics are propped up by the games they lost. It's insane. It's truly insane. And I know that I've been pounding the table about this for a month. And I thought this past month that as the season progressed and results came in, that the committee would do the right thing at the end.

And if what we heard tonight from the chair is how they're going to do this in two weeks, then they're just picking who they think is better. And who they think is better means nothing to me because I don't think anyone on that committee would be a 60% gambler. I'm looking at the Sagrin ratings right now. So this is not one of the ESPN ones, but this is something that the BCS computers would have used. I'm looking at Jeff Sagrin's schedule strength ratings. Who do you think has the higher strength of schedule, Notre Dame or Miami? I would guess.

I don't know the answer to that right now. I would guess Notre Dame. It's Notre Dame. Yeah. Notre Dame is 27th, Miami since 38th. It's not a flex to have a stronger schedule if the teams that are boasting your schedule are the ones that beat you. It doesn't do anything for me. I'm just telling you, I don't think the rest of Notre Dame schedule is as weak as you are

saying it is. Navy looks like a pretty good win. Navy's a pretty good win. You are hit. Pit, it's going to be a pretty good win. Yeah. We'll see about NC State if they can finish strong. A pit. There's Notre Dame crushed Arkansas, right? Yeah, the winless. What happened? Texas A&M played Arkansas. What happened? It was close game. Okay. So the games that they played against common opponents matter, but the games that they played against the team that they're leaving out. Oh, I know. Look, I told you I'm on your side on this. No, I know, but I'm not arguing. But I feel like I have to help the other people who are watching and listening. Yeah, and I appreciate your viewpoint here. But I'm, when I respond to you

that way, I'm not attacking Andy. I'm attacking the listener. Yeah, yeah. Things to a student word. Because it's like, don't tell me about common opponents in previous matchups, the previous matchup from the beginning of the, when do they play them in September? That doesn't count. But it's so funny with these predictive things. So I mentioned Sagrin and the schedule strength. Do you know where Notre Dame is ranked just overall in the Sagarin rankings? Nine, eight. Two.

Wild. Right behind Ohio State. I don't think that data should take precedent over the information that we have, period. Whether it's Notre Dame, Ohio State. You don't think data should take precedent over information. Over the results of the games, I should say. Okay. We have all these high-tech ways of telling you who would win games and how good they are,

but the games that actually happened are nothing. Well, this is the SkyNet conversation we were having the other day. AI will kill us. The computers are great until they rise up and kill us. And by the way, I'm going to finish this off because I just railed on Notre Dame for 20 minutes. Best college campus, I think, most unique college campus in the country. Beautiful uniforms. Suck you to wear a green more.

I'm not sucking up. I think you should wear a green more. I love those jerseys. Think you're really good. Think you can win the national title this year. I still think all those things. It's not a Notre Dame sucks conversation. It is a process conversation.

I want to be clear. I am upset. It does not matter what teams these are. It could be any two teams in this identical situation. Yes. It could be Ohio State and Michigan. And if Ohio State were Miami, I would be saying the same thing.

about Ohio State or vice versa. It's not Notre Dame. It is process. Say it with me again. It's not Notre Dame. It's process. Well, I'm glad you mentioned Ohio State in Michigan because our next message board thread. I'm good at Segways too. You are. That was brilliant. Our next message worth thread is from the Wolverine, from the fort. The winner of the rushing battle wins the game. This is from SoCal for Mish. And SoCal for Mish says we won't lose that battle Saturday. If Ohio State wins, it's via the air and it breaks tendency. I got to admit, Ari, this put me in a blender. This absolutely put me in a blender. Because I went back and I was like, okay, when is

the last time the team with fewer rushing yards won the game? Because if we look at these two teams this year and we say, okay, what happens if they play their normal games Michigan's probably going to outrush Ohio State in this game. Yeah. So I looked it up.

Do you know the last time the team that did not have more rushing yards won the game? I think that this came up last year because everybody was like why is Ohio State trying to fit around a square peg in a round hole and trying to win the rushing battle? Then the stat came up.

Has it been like 40 years? or something. Not 40, but it's been 25, or 24. It was 2000. 2000. Yeah. It was the last time. So the streak started with the 2001 game, and obviously they didn't play in 2020.

But every year, the team that has rushed for more yards has won the game since 2000. And, or since 2001. It is, it's interesting to me. because I think the guy who posted the thread is right. It will take a breaking of tendency in this rivalry for Ohio State to win this game. Because I do think they're going to throw for more than Michigan. I'm not sure they're going to be able to run for more.

Maybe Ohio State's defense is so good that Michigan won't really be able to run the ball. But last year, Michigan outrushed Ohio State 172. to 77. Mm-hmm. And that had a lot to do with how the game went. Yeah, because Ohio State kept trying to run it and they couldn't. Right.

And so, yeah. This plays into what we've been talking about. When we pick the game, you and I both said, we think Ryan Day has overcome whatever mental block he had that made him think he has to win the game the way Michigan plays it. I agree. I wrote about this today, Andy. And first of all, let me just ask you real quick. Do you think that Ohio State has to outrush Michigan because of the streak to win the game on Saturday? I would say no, but now I know how far back it goes, I'm a little worried. Yeah. I wonder if the tendency is broken. Can Ryan Day, here's an excerpt from the story that will probably run on Friday, but I filed it today. I just want to read it to you.

Can Ryan Day let go of everything from the past now that he has a championship ring on his finger? Can he relax? Can he take his superior roster, go up to Ann Arbor, and get his team to play loose? Can he get them to play like they played in the Rose Bowl? Can he let go of having to be tougher than Michigan? Can Ohio State play Ohio State football and air it out to its freakishly talented receivers? Or is it going to get dragged into a Michigan game on a cold day in Ann Arbor? Can Ryan Day, Gulp, have any fun?

that's the question to me it's not whether or not ohio state is going to be able to outrush michigan it's whether or not ohio state will actually play the game that they want to play it for once michigan has dictated the last four years how the game would be played yeah and the thing about the rushing yards like a lot of times you say you run to win but a lot of teams run because they're winning like they get a lead and they carry they run the ball a lot more to run the clock. So that might be some of these games, that might be the reason. And you also have to take into account, too, that when Urban Meyer was Ohio State's coach and they were dominating the rivalry, which is a large chunk of the 20 years, it was a third of the 20 year

stat period. They were a run first team that ran the spread. I mean, they had running quarterbacks. Braxton Miller would run for 80-yard touchdowns. I mean, they had quarterbacks and running backs that ran all over the place. And then you go back to the gym track. After you made after you made Ezekiel Elliott so mad with your question after the Michigan State game the next week

they played it the next week they played Michigan do you recall what the rushing numbers were in that game Ohio State put up like 370 yards rushing the next game Ohio State out rushed Michigan 369 to 57

in the 2015 game and then didn't they rush for like 350 yards in the in the bowl game against Notre Dame later or two yes yeah they just they just mauled people yeah yeah i asked ezekiel elli after the michigan state game if he thinks he

should have carried the ball more and he snapped and then i ran and that was the last you know having to run five miles in miami at the national title game that was the last time i think i ran without stopping i ran all the way down you know the stairs down across the feet up stairs and into the i left the press conference when he said that you had gold you had to yeah uh and that was and i when i got upstairs i almost fainted i was so out of breath because there were stairs in pole. Yeah, so very interesting stat, very interesting tendency. But if you go look at the way the game has played for the majority of the last 20 years,

there's been a huge departure from the way Ohio State played. Ohio State wasn't a finesse pass first team under Urban Meyer. You might think that because they ran the spread, but this is a- The only game I can think of where they really just ripped them apart where the passing game was 2018. Urban's last game in the rivalry. that was when Don Brown just insisted on sitting in the same coverage and they just hit them with crossing around after crossing route. Yeah.

And then like you said, at the end of the game, too, a lot of times in the dam breaks, it's the running back going up the middle for 60 yards when the game's already in hand. Well, that's certainly how Michigan has won some of the games in this street. For sure. And how many of Michigan's rushing yards last year happened on the final two drives? Was that most of them?

Probably. I'd have to look it up. I mean, Mulling's run was like 35. or 40 yards of I remember hardly, which is like, they didn't, like, they didn't crush them in the rushing stats last year. I don't think that Ohio State has to outrush them to win. I think that they should out throw them by a lot and win.

That's what they should have done last year. Well, and that's the thing. Like, maybe it's time in that rivalry that that stat matters less. Maybe you need to render it less important if you're Ryan. Yeah, but it's something, it's an interesting stat and something to track for sure. It is because if you look at these two teams in the way they've played all year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Michigan will rush for more yards in Ohio State,

which leads you to believe that it could be closer. Yeah. Or if Ohio State's defense is what it's supposed to be, Ohio State rushes for 80 yards, and Michigan rushes for 73, and then that's it. I think that that's also possible. I think it's possible Ohio State's defense plays so well that Michigan has a just, absolutely tiny.

Yeah, I mean, you have to force Michigan to pass. Last year, Michigan was able to exist in a close game without ever having to throw the ball because there was never. But if Ohio State gets up by 10 points, you can't, you got to change a little bit. So, yeah, no, but I'm so psyched, Andy. It's such a, it's one of the best games in college football, but also so, so interesting. And it'll be interesting to see what the stats break out at the end because that'll be something that we'll have to revisit on the show on Saturday night. Absolutely. Absolutely, because we're either going to see history repeat.

And I think if we do see history repeat, then we're going to have a much closer game than we're predicting. Or we're going to see a break in tendency, in which case you'll see a break of the streak, too, which I think is all very interesting. Let us move out west now, but also in the Big Ten. We'll stay in the Big Ten, but go out West. She loves Jordan on the WeRSC message board on Gary P's Trojan huddle. the title of the threat is just Lincoln Riley. And it asks, for the people complaining that we should fire Lincoln, who's a better realistic option?

Serious answers only. Make Sabin and Urban say no are not valid answers. And this is interesting because this is a legitimate discussion in the USC fan base about Lincoln Riley. And I think they're split. on how they feel about it. And it's interesting also because you've seen his name pop up in the rumors on some other message boards,

and his agency's been pushing him out there with some of these openings. But I don't think any of these SEC openings are interested in him. I don't think Penn State would be interested in him. And I think that part's interesting too, because if he was doing the job he was supposed to be at USC, then everybody'd be interested.

Andy, I got to tell you, I despise this question. And it's not specifically to USC's post. It's anytime anyone asks this question. You want to know why? Because if you ask that question, you're apologizing for not meeting your standard and you're too scared to go try to demand it from somebody else. Right. Just because somebody can't sit there and give you a rational name that could

do better doesn't mean that Mike Elko is out there somewhere that can do better. Like that, like, somebody gave an interesting name. Can I, can I give you, can I give you the name that Upper Shelf 21 through almost immediately? Yeah. Lane Kiffin. That got a good laugh from the folks on the board. Andy, you know what this reminds me of? Hmm, back in 2020, going back to our last question, and it's relevant to this question, the discourse around Michigan was, how are you going to fire Jim Harbaugh? You're never going to be able to find somebody better. And I tweeted this.

This is a tweet that people send me all the time. November 7th of 2020, I wrote, many think Michigan can't do better than Jim Harbaugh in no order. Coaches, I think, would improve the program for where it is right now. Here's my list of the 10 I listed then.

Number one, Brent Venables. Aging a little bit better. Aging better, yes. Number two, Luke Fickle, aging very badly. But better in the last few weeks. And you got to, I want you and the listeners to transform yourself back to 2020. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

No, no, I understand. Number three, Matt Campbell. I still think he could be very good in the Big Ten. Number four, Jeff Halfley. Also could be, I mean, Jeff Hathley is going to be an NFL head coach very soon. Number five, Mark Stoops. Number seven, PJ Fleck. number eight chris peterson yes number nine jason candle

would's love to see him get a shot at some point in one of these ten the one that laughs me out of the barrel mel Tucker now that tweet aged poorly for a variety of reasons one is the person who who was in charge won a national title like yes years later three years later but it does not matter if you cannot name the coach you want to there are like Ryan 784 said Kenny Dillingham uh forgive me M3 or forgive him forgive me said Kalin de Boar Marcus Freeman said I would even make Dan and Lynn the head coach if he would make a more physical practice than Lincoln Riley.

Dan Lends the defensive coordinator. How much does it cost roughly to hire a coach search firm? Ooh, I'm not sure if they're charging these. It used to be like 250 grand, but I think it might be more now. Now in the millions, I think. And you want Ron from El Segundo to answer this question? Like, what are we doing? Like, some of these answers are good.

Like, I don't think you'd be Kaelin to bore away from Alabama. but you probably could get Kenny Dillingham. And I'm not belittling people because my response to this wouldn't be any better than theirs. What I'm saying is, is if a coach is not living up to the expectation, then your fear of not finding anybody better is baseless and wrong because you could give somebody an opportunity that hasn't proven itself, himself yet that would get those results. so the question shouldn't be well who are we going to get the question is are we getting what we deserve and i think that who we're going to get is a loser mentality but i find it interesting because like i was on the auburn boards lurking around and they're like oh lincoln riley sounds like he's in the mix for some of these these things how come we're not talking to lincoln riley i'm like would you

want lincoln riley at arbor like you have to zoom out a little bit on the season because like now it's over yeah they beat ucla they're nine and three yeah that's great they were better than we on one hand they're better than we hoped they would be or we thought right on the other hand nine and three at year four isn't successful so which person are you are you let's attach ourselves to the most recent thing and say hey there's hope we're headed in the right direction or do you say why do we need five years of this to know we're not getting what we deserve well you want an interesting stat sure i love stats through 51 games is USC head coach. Lincoln Riley is 34 and 17. Would you care to guess at what Clay Hilton's record was

through his first 51? 33 and 17. Isn't it? 34 and 17. Same. Now, that's not like, again, I hate stats because you can, Clay Hilton also didn't play in the big 10. So it's just like, it's a little bit, not everything is 50, 50 on those types of things, because you can mold stats to say what you want them to say. but all I'll say is 666 winning percentage right is that what you paid for and how is this a big

enough sample size to admit that it's not what you paid for and it doesn't mean they should go fire him right now I don't think they're in a financial position to fire him but they're not you saying we can't fire him because that's the best we can do is losership yeah to me Now, you want to know why they're really worried, Ari? You know what the real concern is with the USC fans?

Because I've been saying, hey, look, this is acceptable improvement. You've got the number one recruiting class. Like, you should feel okay right now. Like, don't, like, I was the one who was very down on him the last two years. I'm actually coming back around. That's year two talking points, not year four. Okay. Well, here's where the USC fans have pushed back on me when I have said,

hey, guys, I think he's coming around. You're okay. So when I say that, they say, have you looked at our 2026 schedule? Let me throw you the Big Ten schedule for USC. We don't know dates yet, but we do know who they play home and away. The home games, Maryland, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington. And Penn State, if I'm not mistaken. They play Penn State.

No, that's a road game. Oh, that's the home. I'm sorry. Go ahead. Yeah. Road games. Indiana, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and UCLA. Presumably they will also play Notre Dame.

It's wild. That is a hard schedule, ladies and gentlemen. That is difficult. Like, that is a, even if you were a playoff quality team, you still may only go eight and four against that schedule. Yeah. And of course, like we did with Oklahoma, them this year, we'll contextualize that, you know?

Of course. Indiana's not very good or Wisconsin's not very good or, you know, Ohio State. I'm not expecting Wisconsin to be very good. If Wisconsin is good, it's even harder. Yeah, but I mean, it's, you know how schedules go on November or the previous year. It looks daunting and team, I don't know, but what you're saying is true. And like, what are you, if you're a USC fan, are you, like, go, like, is what's Lincoln Riley going into next year?

Like, I'm trying to, like, envision July podcasts with you. and like we always have to have the conversations about hot seats or who's in most important danger. Like where is Lincoln writing? I think the USC fans who've been defending him to me when I've criticized him over the years, I think they're done defending him. I've noticed that our tones have reversed,

not yours and mine, but mine and theirs, have reversed in the last, during this season. Because I thought after they lost Illinois, all up same old, same old. I actually appreciated how they bounced back I thought the way they beat Michigan was awesome. I thought the way they beat Iowa was awesome.

I actually think they're on the right track. But I think the USC fans are looking at this and going, yeah, but he's still not going to make the playoff next year. Is he on the hot seat, though? Like, where are we at financially halfway through the contract, assuming it's fully guaranteed? Listen, it's super expensive anyway. You slice it.

You're still looking at probably in the 40-ish millions, maybe the 50-ish millions. I think it's a blanket statement to say they haven't gotten enough. The direction is always fun. It's a fun thing to grab onto in year two. Going into year five with that schedule. Do you, like, were they going to turn into Indiana overnight?

Well, they've got the recruiting class coming in, but again, those are freshmen. So unless you're planning on really bolstering that with transfer portal, which they could. I mean, in this era, you can. Yeah. Because they hired Chad Bowden, the new GM from Notre Dame, and he's been there for most of this recruiting cycle.

So perhaps with a full transfer portal cycle and another, you know, the end of this recruiting cycle and he gets those freshmen in, maybe they are significantly better. Is Jaden Maiava going pro? That's a good question. He could, he doesn't have to. He certainly doesn't have to.

But in your mind, as he played, I think he's played well enough to go pro. He has. And Mackay Lemon's gone, right? Yeah. So the two best players could be gone. But I trust Lincoln Riley, go find a quarterback. He did, he did prove with the Myava stuff that he still got that. You have to give him.

Yeah, myava has, this is his fourth year in college. So given. the relative weakness of the quarterback class, I think there's a chance that the strapping 6-4-20030 pound dude who had a really good season might go to the NFL. Yeah.

I don't know. We'll see. Good question. Great conversation. But PSA to be out there. If you root for a team. It's one of those things that, you know, that question a year ago would have gotten just shredded by the other folks on the board. And this time it turned into a very legitimate discussion with strong opinions on both sides.

And I think that's, it's a good gauge of where the fan base is right now. PSA, though, to all fans out there, doesn't matter who your team is or who you root for, where you live, what your income level is, or if you're a man or a woman. If you root for a college football team and you believe that the coach that's currently in place has not done enough, you don't have to be afraid of the unknown and say, we have to keep this person. because we're trapped you're not in a loveless marriage you're not in a in a position where if you leave your spouse you have no money and nowhere to go i i think florida state fans feel like they're in a loveless marriage right now yeah well that's an abusive marriage you're not oh my goodness don't ever don't ever say we're not getting what we're what we deserve i'm not going to go test the waters because what well no it's don't ever say we

don't deserve better. Yeah, it's just like a husband or a wife who is mistreated by their spouse who doesn't leave that person because they're afraid of the fish in the sea aren't as good as what they're already getting. And if you're in that situation, your relationship, I would suggest you leave. You're good enough for somebody out there. Except the leaving part entails giving that person over $50 million. Have you?

Yeah. I don't know a lot of people who were in like awful. marriages who like relieve those marriages and then two years later go god damn i wish i still had 50% of my money i think that the worst place a human being could possibly be isn't a marriage that's not happy i can't think of a worse prison than that well i'm glad you're in a happy one i'm in a happy one for now you know we're only some u s c fans still in a happy one so we'll hopefully they'll they'll convince the other ones that that it's still going to be happy all right one more question, one more, and it is a question from the Auburn Sports Message Board.

So this is from A.U. Germ. What happens if DJ wins the Iron Bowl? DJ Durkin is the interim coach at Auburn. What happens if he wins the Iron Bowl, Ari? I ask you this. It's a great question. The scuttlebutt has been that Auburn's administration would like it if DJ Durr and is kept by whoever they hire.

And I think part of that is to keep some continuity where you could keep some guys from this roster who would want to stay, who would appreciate a little bit of continuity from the old staff. The thing is, DJ is the defensive coordinator, we think John Somerall from Tulane is the lead candidate. Here's the other piece of this.

What if John Sumerall makes the playoff with Tulane? This is not a Lane-Kiffin situation. You can be the head coach at Tulane, be the coach in waiting in Auburn and recruit for Auburn while still coaching Tulane in the playoff. So, but if you're a defensive guy like John Sumerall, do you want somebody saying, here's your defensive coordinator, you must keep him? That is a tough negotiating point. DJ Durkin is like beloved right now, right? Like the people at Auburn love him, right? They do. They do. And he's done a good job as a lot.

the D.C. Here's what makes this even more interesting, Ari. By the time the Iron Bowl kicks off, we may know what Lane Kiffin's doing. If Lane Kiffin doesn't go back to Ole Miss, do you know who one of the top candidates that Ole Miss would be? Is it DJ Durkin? It's John Summerall.

I love not being able to put little puzzle pieces together like I'm a five year old like you gotta like push it to me it's like yeah and John Summerall goes to Ole Miss and then that opens up a vacancy that could then lead to DJ Durkan at Auburn thank you for putting it together for me I'm just saying all of that could fall

into place yeah I like the idea of going with a person who has done a good job as a coordinator at your place and then did an even better job as the interim and is loved by the fans and the people in the program. But that also is not the qualification because as much as you are loved and as much as you, you know, were the steady hand while the waters were choppy in the middle of the ocean, we're not hiring everybody love everybody. Right.

We're hiring who's going to win a national title for us. And I don't know if those two things are the same thing. I'm not saying he can't. Beating Alabama certainly would help. They lost that, Vanderbilt. That's really the only real game he's gotten to coach. The other one was Mercer. So I've spoken to a few Alabama fans in my life.

And I'm not going to say that those two Alabama fans that I've spoken to speak for all of Alabama fans. They're scared shitless. They should be. Jordan Hare is haunted. Haunted. Five and a half is a weird number. Such a weird number. Such a weird number.

And the last three meetings, the margin of victory has not gotten to more than three. One of those people in my life, I want to give a shout out. I sent you in River Pictures. It's Jordan Hare, not in Tuscalo. Bought a maroon 90s Bronco that he had when he was a kid. That's beaten up and looks like exactly like something you might see

in Alabama, and he got the license plate, RMFTR, which you can fill in the blanks. Yeah, the R and the T and the R are a roll-tied roll. Roll, mother effin-tide role. And I think it's the coolest car I've ever seen. Like, honestly, as somebody who likes old cars, as you know, like I, like, I respect it. It's beautiful.

You sent me the pictures. It's glorious. He's scared this weekend. He's afraid to take that thing out of the garage Sunday if they don't win. or he might take it down out of the garage and just, you know, take it off roading and beat the crap out of it a little bit more just to throw off some steam. But I'm really excited about this game. And Andy, you know, I've been thinking a lot about what you said.

I picked Bama, you picked Auburn. This one's wild, dude. This whole weekend's going to be wild. It's going to be so much fun. We have Thanksgiving tomorrow. We have a show for you on Thanksgiving. Our friend Tyler Shoemaker from Beeson joins us to give us the best bets for the weekend. plus your questions answered.

Got some great mailbag questions. One of them, should we use the computers? Should the BCS computers take over for the college football playoffs selection committee? I already told you the answer to that earlier. Be afraid of them. We're going to talk about that in-depth tomorrow.