Andy & Ari On3 - March Madness: Breaking down the TOP matchups in the bracket

Episode Date: March 16, 2026

Happy Monday! As the best sports weekend of the calendar year is ahead of us, Andy & Ari breakdown the top matchups in the March Madness field. Who will take home the trophy this year? Where will the upsets fall? Watch here as Andy & Ari break down all the action of the jam-packed weekend in college basketball.   (0:00) On Today’s Episode (0:59) Presenting Sponsor (3:07) Intro: Reacting to the Bracket (6:20) First Four Matchups (14:56) East Region (20:17) Culver’s (21:56) Aden Holloway News (25:42) Previewing John Ewing from BetMGM (26:02) John Ewing joins the show (28:16) #11 VCU vs #6 North Carolina (30:15) Any 12 vs 5 matchups? (47:08) Ari’s Guide to Picking the tournament (1:00:39) Conclusion: Thanks for watching!   After breaking down the bracket, Andy & Ari cover some news coming out of Tuscaloosa. On Monday morning, news dropped that Alabama guard Aden Holloway was arrested on a 1st degree marijuana possession. Andy & Ari react to the news here.   Once the news concludes, Andy & Ari are joined by BetMGM’s John Ewing for the best picks ahead of the tournament. Who will be the trendy picks this weekend? John Ewing has you covered here.   To close, Andy asks advice from Ari on his guide to picking games in the tournament. What are the trends looking? What kind of strategies should you implement while picking games? Andy & Ari discuss here.   Thanks for watching! See you tomorrow!   Send in your questions for Dear Andy & Ari here: [e-mail] [e-mail]   Our show is also presented by BetMGM!   If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works:   1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB. 2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. 3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sure you use bonus code CFB when you sign up!   Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary.   See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.   Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/gkQtlFislw8   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's Andy Noreon 3 presented by BetMGM, we have a bracket. And it is a pretty well-designed bracket, according to our friends at BetMGM, because most of the higher seeds are favored over the lower seeds, which you don't always see. Now, this one looks pretty good, which means it's going to get pretty fun down the line. But where will the upsets come? We will try to find the upsets.

Plus, the East region looks like the group of death. Lots of fun in that just from the coaching names alone. There's a second round matchup with potentially Dan Hurley versus Mick Cronin in Philadelphia. I don't know if there's been as much anger in one city as there will be if those two match up. It's going to be such a fun tournament. This is the best week of the year in American sports. And I say that as a pure college football guy. Best week of the year in American sports.

We'll talk brackets all day on Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BedmGMGM. This show is presented by Bed-MGM, and there's no better place to be during March matchups than Las Vegas. This year, college basketball fans can win a VIP trip to the Court of Legends event featuring the Cavender Twins. Simply place sports bets and your position on the leaderboard will determine if you win one of the 25 grand prize packages. Just sign into your BetMGM account, opt into the promotion, and start placing sports bets

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rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM, and it is one of the great days of the sporting year because it is the Monday in which we have a flesh, clean bracket. Ari, beautiful, fresh and clean, 68 teams. They've not lost in the tournament yet. No one has been eliminated. everybody has a chance to win the national title. Did you think that we were going to start the show and we weren't going to address what's behind you?

Okay, spring break for my kids. That is my son out there fishing. I was going to say, he's a jacked kid on the dot out there. He squats more than me now. That's something I'm learning to live with. We got the helicopter going overhead. I'm not sure what they're looking for. usually when there's a helicopter going over in the Keys,

they are looking for a certain type of aquatic creature called the square grouper. So, you know, you know. I thought it was something from the show Bloodline. But, okay, I'm happy that you're enjoying your... It is essentially something from the show. The show Bloodline was very accurate. But Andy's in the Keys, and I will be going on my small version of my spring break later in the week

because I will be going to Vegas to bet and enjoy these games. talking about. So, Andy, so excited, so pumped, really, really enjoy this week in sports. Obviously, this tournament is one of the crown jewels of organized sports in the world and in America. And I can't wait to talk about it. We're going to have John Ewing on from BetMGM today to talk about some insights, give you some ideas of trends and, you know, popular bets and things like that. It's a really exciting time for degenerates like myself. I love this. And it's, it's so, interesting because we're going to get into this with John, but the effect of NIL on college basketball, we talk about it a ton in relation to college football. NIL is affecting the NCAA

tournament. And John's got some numbers that he'll throw out for you and you'll kind of, it'll help contextualize it. But upsets are going to be harder to come by than they used to be. And so cherish them when they come. But it also means when this thing gets down to smaller groups, smaller numbers that you're going to have some bangers. And I think last year's tournament was like that. Like we had some incredible sweet 16 games, unbelievably lead eight games. I mean, even like I go back to the round of 32 game between Yukon and Florida.

That we'll mention it. We'll talk about this later in the show, but Yukon's got a little streak going where they keep covering NCAA tournament games. And that one, they nearly beat the team that ended up winning the whole thing in the round of 32. So there's a lot of interesting, even if we don't get a ton of upsets in the first round, which I hope we do, because that's the best part of this. But I do think there will be some interesting potential second round matchups. And shoot, we got one really interesting one in the first four, Ari.

You got SMU, Miami of Ohio in the first four. And, you know, we talked last week about Miami of Ohio. We did a segment right after they lost a UMass in their conference tournament. we talked about Auburn on Friday and what if they make it and what if they wind up playing Miami of Ohio. Auburn did not make it. Probably because one reason Miami of Ohio did. Oklahoma and Auburn were the first two teams out. Nobody's really complaining about that, Ari.

And I think that was one notable thing about Sunday. Last year, remember we were talking about, oh, you know, North Carolina made the tournament and their ADs on the committee. blah, blah. I don't miss that. There's none of that. Auburn lost 16 games. Like, it's okay that they didn't make the tournament. Yeah.

You know, I do think it is kind of interesting, and I don't know. Sometimes, like, when things become trends online, I can't tell if these are a bunch of straw man arguments or if there's actually people out there who believe this. But there probably are a lot of fans out there that don't think that Miami of Ohio should make it because they didn't play anybody good all year, right?

Like, that's like a topic point. And I do think it's kind of counterintuitive to what we love about the tournament, which is, you know, a typical teams or teams that aren't big brand names having an opportunity to go and, you know, shock the world, beat some good teams or make a run that we wouldn't expect. And I think it's kind of lame if you don't want them in because, you know, it is very clear that they did enough in the regular season to have at least one spot in a tournament that has more than 60 teams in it. I mean, they won 31 games in a row. Like, that's a wild thing to do, regardless of who you're playing. They also attempted to schedule a lot of power teams that might have been in the quad one region of the, you know, metrics that they use and they weren't able to schedule them. So they weren't, this wasn't a weak schedule by philosophy. And it's like, who would be against Miami making it?

And, you know, frankly speaking, you know, there's a lot of discussion about like the first four and how much people care about it, whether it should exist. all these things. Like, if you go 31 and 0 in your basketball season, like it's kind of annoying that they're in the first four to me. And it's annoying if you're, that's the thing. And I was trying to explain last week and this is what people got. It wasn't the people who didn't want Miami of Ohio in.

It's the people who did want Miami of Ohio in who didn't understand that they're going to get put in Dayton. Like, they're going to because of the metrics, because of the net rating, because they hadn't played anybody good. I don't know if they would have been put in Dayton if they'd won the Mac championship. Maybe they wouldn't have because the way Keith Gill, the tournament chair or the committee chair described it.

And Keith Gill, the Sunbelt commissioner, does a really good job explaining this stuff. I think he's probably the best of these people. And I realize that a commissioner can't be the football committee's chair. So you can't have him explaining it. But I kind of wish Keith Gill explained all of these for everybody. I mean, he could moonlight and just explain things to us. He doesn't have to do anything. Just let him sit in the room and watch it and then explain what happened.

Because he's really good at this. So he explained it and it wasn't complete on the CBS show, but then they had a teleconference and he was able to finish out the answer. But what he was saying is I believe it was Texas and NC State were actually selected beneath Miami of Ohio. But if you look at the true seed line that they released at the end of the Brack. where it just says one through 68. So they were number 44, which was the last at large team.

And he was explaining that they actually were selected above Texas and NC State. But then when they did the scrubbing of the bracket, which is where they go back through and they use some other advanced metrics, including some predictive metrics that they ended up below those two teams. At that point, those teams were all in. They'd already cut the line and said, this is where we're ending it. These are the teams that are in. We're now going to put them in order.

So they did end up as the last at large, according to the true C line. But they were going to be in. All that did was kind of maybe change who they played. They might have ended up playing Texas or NC State instead of SMU who they're going to play. Now, the SMU thing is interesting. SMU from the ACCC is a seven and a half point favorite according to that MGM in this game. And I think that that's where this comes in. That's where them getting pushed down to the last at large in the true seed line.

that's what they're looking at. They're looking at the predictive metrics that are similar to what our friends at BenMGM used to set the line. Yeah, and John Ewing, who we have on the show coming up, Andy, offered something off the air that we wanted to share with you. Miami has been a underdog only four times this year, and they have won all four games outright. Now, obviously, like we only lost one game and they were a favorite year.

So, but still, they've only been. been underdogs four times all season and they've won all those games out outright. And I'm assuming that Miami is going to be a pretty popular bet with points and maybe some people with a little extra scratch decide they want to do. Also going to be a crowd favorite in Dayton. Like, that's a, that's an easy drive for everybody. And so they're probably going to have the biggest crowd in Dayton. But yeah, it's one of those things that I think a lot of the responses I got online last week were how

dare you say that Miami could wind up playing Auburn. I'm like, look, Miami's going to be in the first four. The only question is whether Auburn is too. Yeah. On the answer is, is there not. I do take exception to the notion that Miami might have a home crowd. I think there is a private airport in Dayton somewhere. For the SMU fans, hopefully they won't get there in the third quarter. Well, there's no third quarter in men's basketball. Hopefully they'll get there in the first part of the second half. I live a mile and a half away from SMU. And let me tell you, buddy. They'll get there if they want to get there. Well, they didn't get there when they were losing to Penn State.

Remember, there was so much private jet traffic that they could not all get to the game and time. They broke the college airport system. So many private planes were flying in and they were all late and barely made it. They were already losing by like 28, I think, by the time those people got to the stadium, which is a major bummer. But, you know, it'll be a fun game. And I do think that at least, regardless of where you stand on the Miami of Ohio situation, that at least it's an intriguing storyline that is being offered up to us

before the tournament starts as we wait for Thursday. So, I mean, it sucks for them, I think, but it's good for us because we get to watch a game with an intriguing storyline before the tournament starts. And you know my opinion on the first four. I believe that if you are an automatic qualifier, if you're a conference tournament champion who automatically gets in, you should be automatically placed in the 64th field.

I think the first four should be all at-larges. And I wish there were, instead of just the two at-large games with Texas and NC State and SMU and Miami of Ohio, I wish there were four at-large games because I feel bad for the teams that have already won their way into the tournament and now have to play each other. And I know, you know, I've had some people say, yeah, but they like that tournament unit when they win and then they go, you know, get shelled by a one-seed. Yeah, but what about the other team that was supposed to be in the tournament? And I know you say that the official people say that,

the first four is the tournament. It's not the tournament. The tournament is 64 teams. It's somewhere not Dayton. And it starts on third. Because you've made Dayton the first four. Yeah. It starts Thursday. Yeah. If you're not playing Thursday or Friday, you're not in the real tournament. So that's, that's the part that bugs me is those should be at large, like. And look, too, too, do you know enough to earn their way during the regular season should not have to play an extra game. It's a fair thought process. Well, in the regular, not the regular season in the conference. And in the conference. Yeah, but you know what I mean. Before the selection. Miami of Ohio certainly earned its way in the regular season.

And look, if you don't like the way this is, contact your favorite conference commissioner and ask them to change their reliance on the net ratings because that's where this is coming from. That's why they wound up in date. It was because of who they played. And again, we've talked about it. They tried to play some people and didn't get a lot of responses from people.

It probably didn't want to play them. It wasn't the best outcome, but it certainly was. wasn't the worst outcome either. So, you know, they get a chance. Ari, I want to talk to you about this East region because it is from a brand name standpoint, just stacked. You've got Duke as the one seed. You got Rick Petino and St. John's is the five. And I think they probably, you know, I'm not quibbling much with the way the committee seeded this thing. They might have a little quibble. Maybe they should have been on the four line. But you've got St. John's is the five. You got Kansas as the four.

You've got Michigan State is the three. You've got Mick Cronin and UCLA as the seven. Like you've got Yukon as the two. Like Mick Cronin and Bobby Hurr, I'm sorry, and Danny Hurley could be matching up in Philadelphia on Friday. Which is an appropriate for them to match up in two by the way. Sorry, on Sunday, on Sunday, not on Friday. They play their first round game is Friday. On Sunday, they would be matching up if UCLA beats UCF.

if Yukon beats Furman. Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley, two bald guys who might be, are they the angriest coaches in America when they get mad? I think so. Like, angrier than any football coaches. Who's the angriest football coach?

Good question. It is Patnerd. But when he gets mad. Pat Narduzzi is delightful when he's not mad. Yeah, but who gets angry the most? And who is, like, violent when they're angry in, like, a verbal way? I think it's Narduzi.

Yeah. But this is, this is an incredible one. Like, they're not all going to get to D.C. And they're obviously in, in different places. But, like, in, in Buffalo, you've got Patino, Dusty May, and Tom Izzo all together. Can we just call this the Jim Calhoun bracket? We should. Just in honor.

We should in his honor. Amously angry a lot. Well, the best part is if you get the. cron and hurley matchup, it's going to be in Philly, which is an angry city. It's an angry city. It's good. No, but I do like the bracket region because, like, you do have a lot of star power.

And Andy, we talk about this every year. And it's so interesting to me because on one hand, everybody craves and roots for and is inherently interested by the Cinderella. But then I think by the time you get past the Sweet 16, the Cinderella story comes to a close and people really sink their teeth into you know, the big brands and who's the best and who's actually going to win the thing. And I wonder if as we move forward into college basketball's new system, where it's harder to maintain or retain rosters for three or four years of really good players,

now that players are getting poached and paid more to go to power schools, if the instances of Cinderella become fewer and far between, but also then creates a more pure and high-powered tournament. across the board. And I'm never a proponent for losing Cinderella's. I just wonder what the byproduct of that is if we get to a point where there isn't a 12-5 upset every year. Yeah.

And I think our idea of like a true Cinderella who makes a deep run just may end up having to change. It may be that it may be that kind of mediocre power conference team that gets hot. Like remember when NC State made the final four a few years ago and had DJ Burns Jr., like the 275 pound big man. I was just backing people up out of the gym. Yeah, it was awesome. That's the kind of Cinderella I think we're going to get from now on.

I also think that's the kind of Cinderella we're getting in football too. Like Miami to a certain extent was Cinderella last year. Indiana, for very different reasons, was Cinderella and they won the national championship. So like I think that anybody not Duke, North Carolina, Arizona, and all the typical teams that you get, you know, the lower half power teams that aren't typical. successful in basketball who make runs. It's the Vanderbilts of the world in football who aren't typically successful, but all of a sudden are 10 and 2.

Those are the teams that I think are going to be interesting. But football just never offered, you know, UMBC as an option. So, you know, we'll see how it goes. But I think that I wonder if the exact, and I say this with John Ewing on the interview, but I wonder if like the reverse of the parody that we're getting in football might actually be occurring in basketball. Well, did you catch UMBC trolling Alabama? did.

Yeah. You know, last, when they beat Virginia, when they won that 16-1 game, they trolled Alabama football, or they said something like Alabama, you up. And then this year, they did not. They said, we're going after Indiana football because we want relevant football teams. It's just cold. It's got to keep it going. The retrievers don't play.

They're just violent online. I think it would be a really awesome job if you were given a, access to a social media account and then could tweet talking shit to people like with a pretty big following well and if they if the if your boss is okay with it just let your freak flag fly it's yeah like i i don't know if wendies apparently there's a lot of funny tweets of like the wendy's official account back in the day or whatever like oh yeah when no wendies is still saucy to use a term they liked us to use when they were sponsored our show uh very saucy we're talking talking about all these teams that start tournament played this week.

Where are they all trying to get? Indianapolis. That's where you should be trying to get, too, because April 4th, the day of the national semifinals, Ari and I will be in Indianapolis at the Culver's Game Day Hub. That's right. We are back with Culver's. You remember our partnership with him at the draft last year. It was so much fun, so many cheese curds, so much frozen custard.

Ari even had a fish sandwich that made him smile bigger than I think I've ever seen him smile. You know, the thing that's so funny, too, Andy, about that is we got Culver's delivered to the Culver's activation. We wanted more. It was beautiful. Yeah, it's that good. It was beautiful. And then they had all these butterburgers and frozen custard the next day that was just, it was heaven. It was heaven. We're recreating heaven in Indianapolis at the Culver's Game Day Hub. We're going to have so much fun. You can come watch us record our show, pregame show for the semi-final games. We're going to have some special guests. It is going to be a blast. So as you watch these teams and your team hopefully moves closer and closer to Indianapolis, you make plans

to come see us in Indy at the Culver's Game Day Hub on April 4th. But if you can't get to Indy, into the Culver's swish-swish dish sweepstakes for a chance to win $2,500. But we hope to see you in Indianapolis on April 4th at the Culver's Game Day. hub. We do love some culvers and boy, I could go for some frozen custard right now. All right. Before we talk to John Ewing from Bedmd MGM, we got a little bit of breaking news. This is Monday as we're recording this on early Monday afternoon. So we don't have all the info on this thing that we may not have all the info by the time. The show drops at 3 p.m. Eastern time. Alabama's Aidan Holloway arrested on Monday morning

for marijuana possession, which is a first-degree felony, I believe, and also failure to affix a tax stamp, which I'm going to need an explanation on that one. But according to the Tuscaloosa News, there was a search of a residence, and they found a pound of marijuana, or more than a pound of marijuana, also paraphernalia in cash. So, Ari, this is a really interesting situation. Obviously, this situation, this situation, differs state by state, but Alabama is still a place where if you get found by the cops with a pound of marijuana, there's going to be a problem.

Yeah, you know, it's really bad timing, obviously, for the Alabama basketball team and incredibly poor decision making from Holloway himself. And I don't know how long something like this takes to, you know, be solved. We don't know anything yet. Innocent till proven guilty. You know, we haven't heard from him. We haven't heard from Nate Oates yet. I do want to hear that first before I make any sort of judgments on this thing or or figure out what's going to happen.

But this is a very important player for Alabama. He averaged 16.8 points a game. He is one of their best players and plays a ton of minutes. He average 28.4 minutes a game. So this is the type of thing that can swing your NCAA tournament. situation. I mean, they are playing Hofstra in Tampa later this week in the first round. They'll be playing on Friday. So we don't know what this means. Now, as of noon on Monday, he had been released from jail, so he bonded out of jail. But I don't know what this means

from Alabama's standpoint. You know, this is not the Charles Betiaco case where there's a temporary restraining order and he's trying to challenge an NCAA rule. This is a, this is a a criminal case. Yeah. And Nate Oates is going to have to figure out, too, you know, how do you handle this in terms of whether he plays? I don't even know if we're six steps down the line there. Like, it's just a ongoing situation that just broke on Monday morning.

And I'm certainly will have more information as the week progresses, but really bad news for Alabama's basketball team. Yeah, it's going to be a tough situation no matter what. So, but this is, this is just sort of thing that happens in Seattle. tournament week. It feels like there's always something like this. It's not always a criminal case, but sometimes it's an injury situation. And then a team just has to scramble and figure this out. But we'll hear more. I'm sure we'll get the statement from Alabama, though. We are aware of the charges against Staten Holloway and we will, you know, react to the information as we get more

information, something like that. That's probably how this goes. But at this point, with the limited amount of information we have. There's not really much we can say about this. There's not really any judgments we can make. I don't know that I would change how I feel about what Alabama is going to do in the tournament yet because we don't know how they're going to handle this. Yeah. Yeah. So it's kind of one of these deals where, you know, as information comes out, we will keep track of it and we will update you as we can.

That's right. That's right. Now, let's talk to John Ewing from BEDMGM because he has. some very intriguing insights about action on the NCAA tournament. And also some trends that you may want to take into account as you are watching NCAA tournament games and possibly using your BEDMGM app. We are honored to be joined now by Insights manager John Ewing from Bed NGM and been a fun few days at the book. Obviously, this is one of the biggest weeks of the year for you guys, John. But you sent us an email last night with some very interesting.

wagers that have already been put down on the NCAA tournament. Somebody's got a hundred grand on Purdue to make the final four. Did they just get caught up in a wave of emotion from the Big Ten tournament? It feels like they would be a boiler fan, but you never know. Sometimes someone sees value. They got some value there at six to one. Right now, Purdue's three to one to one to make the final four. Yeah.

When you look at the odds to win the national championship, the morning of selection Sunday before the NCAA, I mean the conference tournament finals. And then you have that like hour or two hour like black period where the odds come off the board is now they're recalculating for like the way the bracket's going to look and people's paths to it. How much of a fluctuation do you see between, you know, futures odds, you know, in the morning of Sunday and then the afternoon once the brackets put out? Not really that much, honestly. They do such a good job projecting the first. filled throughout the season, Joe Lannardi, Bracketology, et cetera, that we didn't adjust the lines on the future book very much. So, John, I'm always curious because one way I think we can judge how the committee

seeded the tournament is if you have any weird situations where somebody's a much higher seed but is either a pickum or an underdog in the game. And I remember I covered a game in I think it was 2009 involving the, I think that James Harden Arizona State team. Or no, no, it was the Chase Budinger, Arizona team, where they were a 12 and they were favored against the five because it was one of those deals where they just had a weird beginning of the season and the seating got all jacked up. But I looked at this one.

Other than eight, nine games, there's not a single instance where the higher-seeded team or the worst-seeded team is a favorite. The one that jumped out at me that I thought was interesting was an 11-6 game with North Carolina against a VCU team. that had to win its conference tournament to even make the field. UNC is only a two and a half point favorite. So that's the one. Like those are the games that make me suspicious more than anything.

Do you have a type of game when you're looking at the NCAA tournament that just jumps out at you? Well, quickly on the UNC game, lines two and a half, no movement on the spread. And betting's pretty evenly split between the two. So no one's jumped on it one way or the other, public or sharps. Although I would imagine, given the brand naming with the Tar Heels, that they'll eventually take more action as we get closer to tip off. And talking about no seed, higher seed, like a 10 over a 7 being favored, all 16 of the top four seeds are going to be double-digit favorites this year.

That's the first time that has happened since the tournament expanded in 1985. So it could be really chalked this year. You know, it's so funny. And like, John, you're the gambling field. we're the feelings in philosophy field. And we had a discussion about NIL and how much it's changed to college football. I wonder if NIL has changed college basketball. And I wonder if in five years from now, like Cinderella runs are going to become rarer than they used to be.

Like, I don't know if you see that. I agree with you. I'm thinking and I was looking back through the data. So since the start at NIL 2021, the biggest seats, 13 to 16, are just 20. 25 and 39 against a spread. That's a win rate of less than 40%. And when you looked at the previous, like 10 years, they were closer to 500, even had a slight winning record. So, you know, if you show you can play, a team from a bigger conference is going to pay you. You know, you just start weeding out some of the talent at these smaller programs. It's so funny, Andy, because like everybody talks about college footballs parody and compares the NCAA tournament. But because there are more teams. that participate in their tournament and more teams in general that can beat high-level teams, I actually think that the reverse effect of what's happening in football might happen in basketball.

Yeah, it's interesting because that, well, the get old, stay old that they're using in football now was always the way you created a good mid-major basketball team. But it's almost impossible to do that now. You can't get old and stay old in the mid-majors. And, John, one thing that jumped out of me is I felt, you know, basically since I have been aware that the NCAA tournament was a thing. When the bracket came out, I could just look at the four, 12, five matchups, and I could usually pick two that felt like,

all right, there's an upset here. This is going to be one of those. I'm struggling. Akron, Texas Tech is really the only one I'm looking at and going, all right, this looks like one. It could be fun. Yeah, there's some spreads. You know, Wisconsin's opened as a double-digit favorite against High Point,

and their five versus 12 on Thursday. Um, looking back through there. Uh, yeah, you said Texas tech and Ackon, that's another one, uh, line open tech minus eight and a half. It's come down and we're seeing about 60% of money on Akron. Yeah, that's the only one. It used to be that the two or three of those you'd find very interesting. Be like, okay, this is this is a classic five, 12. I don't know that we have the classic five, 12 anymore. It's probably what you were just talking about with the, with the 13 through 16 where it's just going to. to be harder for those teams to win. And those were just so popular. It really came into the consciousness of all betters. You know, you can find an edge taking an upset in that spot. And historically, they had covered the number at a high rate, even if they weren't winning, but that that's all kind of evened out.

Yeah, I wonder what the, I mean, like, what the math of that is. Like, why is that the particular seed matchup that's given people trouble in the past? I wonder what the It tends to be the last the last at-larges and the first automatic qualifiers and so the last at-larges are pretty good teams who had pretty good regular seasons if they're mid-majors

and then the first automatic qualifiers are the highest rated of those automatic qualifiers that got in other than the power conferences that's why it historically was the best spot and then your fives are kind of flawed but pretty good power conference teams. John, I was wondering this, Andy, if you don't mind. Go ahead.

Why don't you go and I'll save mine for after? Well, I was looking at the email John sent us last night and just some fascinating stuff about who has, who the books might not be rooting for. BetMGM has the highest liability on a couple of teams. And I was not who I thought it was going to be. It's Florida and Michigan, right? Yeah, those are two teams that have gotten action throughout the year.

Yukon also is another popular one, St. John's here during their run in conference tournament play, are all liabilities, all teams that, you know, if they took an early exit, it wouldn't hurt our feelings. But among the favorites, Duke and Arizona are our best result right now on the book, although that they're real close to flipping from being a positive to a negative and a good run by either of them in the tournament could have us cheering against them yeah another thing from the email that i thought was interesting is that michigan is one of the highest handles uh total um the highest 14.8 percent how much of that money comes in before the conference tournament and do you think the result of the big 10 championship game has any impact on people we've just taken enough action

throughout the season on this, that it's really hard to spike it, you know, just from one tournament or a handful of games. So, yeah, you see a little bit of movement on these teams, but really it's just consistent action throughout the season. This gives you a great idea, a sense of what teams were being bet and what teams the public thinks can cut down the nets. Another thing, I mentioned that $100,000 bet on Purdue that you guys pointed out to us, But there's a couple big ones on Houston. There's a $50,000 bet to win $450,000. And then there's also $25,000 bet, and they got plus $1,100, so they can win $275,000. I'm wondering how many of these, and I know it's hard to know,

but how many of these are fans and how many of these are just professional gamblers looking for value? Like for, I think that plus $1,100 one, it's a pretty good value for Houston. Yeah, it's a combo, of course. there's obviously a lot of betters that are fans that bet with their heart as most betters do. And, you know, the ones I sent out just a handful, there's many, many more that don't actually get approved. Every bet has to be approved by the better before we can share it.

And often times a lot of these gamblers don't want their big bets shared because if they lose, they don't want to be made fun of on social media. Some people on Twitter are a little mean, if you can believe it. Oh, really? I didn't know that. I haven't noticed. I got to tell you, if I was placing, you know, 100 racks on a game, I don't think I'd really care about what anybody on Twitter had to say.

But the thing that I find funny, too, is that I think a lot of people view these big bets as like a guide to what you should do. Do you think that that's a fair way to think, or do you think that those are just one-off bets sometimes that shouldn't really be a navigation for people who don't know what they're doing? 100%. These are just betters placing wagers and they happen to have, you know, more income than we do. So they can, they can wager a larger amount. Most of these are not necessarily. I would not just blindly follow any wager that was placed. Yeah, Andy and I were joking about this before the show, but he's like, can you believe somebody bet $100,000 on Purdue? And I was like, can you believe that people have their own private planes?

Like, everybody is in our tax bracket. That 100K doesn't mean as much to them. Right. Whoever bet that 100K, it probably doesn't mean as much to him or her as it does to me. Yeah. Exactly. There, I think a large portion of fans,

maybe not a large portion of people who are betting on the NCAA tournament are people who, especially people who listen to our show who are football first, you know, may not be as locked into the comings and goings of the regular season, the way that they are in football, and then they join the NCAA tournament because it's a gambling event. Sure.

What can you give in terms of advice for how people should navigate so many teams, so much information? How would you do it if you were kind of a layman going into this, looking at all these numbers? There's so many games, right, and so much opportunity for action. So the first thing I would recommend to anyone is you don't have to bet on every game. I know it's very tempting, right? What?

I didn't know this. It's okay sometimes just to, you know, watch the games, but not always have action on each one of them. But I would go through and what can you apply, you know, looking at a power rating, looking at a site like Ken Palm. Again, this is very basic. Ken Palm's been around forever. But that can kind of give you an idea of where these teams,

you see a 7 versus 10. Well, what does that really mean? to you and seeding, like, how big of a gap is there between these two teams based on what they've done throughout the season, offensive, defensive efficiencies? You've got to do a little bit of homework, right, to start understanding what these teams are about, are they offense, are they defensive first? And then, of course, you know, listen to you guys. I know you have some fun nuggets. I have a couple interesting trends I can share as we get going here, too. Oh, what do we got? I know.

I think all helping yet. Well, okay. One thing I like to look at, and it has been historically profitable, is just teams that make a high percentage of their free throws. Okay? It makes sense, right? March Madness, we see it all the time. Close games.

There's fouling down the stretch. If you make your buckets, you go on, you win. And for better, hopefully you cover. So teams that have hit 75% or make, excuse me, of their free throws in a season as a team, have covered the spread just about 57% of the time. So that's a solid win rate. As that percentage goes up, you get closer to 80%, you go over a 60% win rate against the spread.

Two teams that match that are in the tournament this year, Bandy and St. Mary's, both of them are making about 80% of their free throws as a unit. So again, in close games where the spread's a little tighter and there's a chance if there's going to be fouling down the stretch, a good free throw team historically has been able to cover for you. Yeah. Hold on. I'm just looking at a free throw percentage on everybody.

Yeah. And obviously, too, it makes so much sense. The spread is seven and a half. And your team makes their free throws. They might lose by six instead of nine. Like,

I mean, that's a huge difference. Yeah. Of course. Yeah. And then that's the, you, because people are thinking,

oh, it's that pressure situation. It's not the pressure situation. It's the team that's up three that gets fouled that then goes up five because they made both their free throws. It's not it's not necessarily the you got to make this free throw to take the lead situation. It's those teams can keep leads. And that makes a lot more sense. Yeah, but yeah, exactly.

Another interesting trend for you guys. I had forgotten about this. But did you know that Yukon has covered 14 straight games against the spread in the tournament? No. Had heard a couple things about that. No. Yeah. I'm hearing.

Crazy. You know, they win. The championships last year, they get knocked out early in the second round, but they covered as nine and a half points. It was against the eventual national champ. Yeah. Right. They only lose by two, but they covered as nine and a half point underdogs to Florida.

They're opened as 18.5 point favorites against Furman. It's already bumped up two points to 20 and a half. I think it's going to be a very popular pick here in round one, especially as that. trend of 14 straight starts making its round on social media. Yeah. Would the paladins break the streak, Ari? I mean, like we talked about this at the beginning of the show, Andy, but like I don't like these 25 point 20 point spreads in this.

I can't stand it. It's not a fun, enjoyable experience for me. The only time you ever, you know, sometimes there's NCAA tournament results where the team wins by 41 and you don't have to sweat, but most of the time I find myself sweating the most dumb things. at the end of the game. You know, it's like they're up by 27 the entire game and then they clear the bench with, you know,

seven minutes left and the next thing you know, you're only up by 14. I can't stand it. So that's not my favorite type of game to play. I like to play, you know, less than seven typically. Well, John, does with these bigger spreads, is that where you might just want to wait and look at what's going on live?

Yeah, that's a good opportunity. I'm with you, though. It's really difficult to handicap, motivation when a team gets up by 20 or more points. Are they going to drop the hammer? Like you said, are they going to empty the bench and rest their guys? But these favorites like that are all over parlayers. They're very popular on the money line to just add a 20-point favorite, you know, to boost the odds.

So the book often is hoping one of these teams, you know, is upset. And that helps them out. So John's like me. He wants to see the walk-ons come in and just rain threes. That's my goal. Like, you know, as someone who, you know, wasn't a basketball walk-on, because that's a very different level of skill. Those guys are probably better than a lot of the football walk-ons.

But as someone who's a walk-on, I love it when those guys get in in the tournament, and I love it when they get to score. So if they help some 20-point favorite cover, great. And if it helps you, John, well, we appreciate your sponsorship. Yeah, we do. The other one I want to look at because I think it's super interesting is futures. A lot of times we know that the path to the final four can mean every bit as much to some teams as how good they are. Do you have good matchups along the way?

There are a lot of very good teams that are very, you know, big long shots to advance deep in the tournament. And I'm wondering if there are teams that you have in mind that are. are long shots that might have a chance of making a run. Oh, man. The more, you know, we just touched on about the top four seeds being such big favorites and most likely to advance. There was even, we have a prop for this. It was a total team seated 13 to 16 to make the round of 32.

Over under is one and a half, but the under is minus 200. So the book's telling you, you know, the odds. say they're not going to the prop says they're not going to i just keep leaning back towards it being really chalky and i just haven't seen any long shot that that i'm willing to put my money on yeah to me like arkansas is a team that just won the cc tournament and it's plus 5 000 it's like someone's going to maybe make a run right and you you know maybe get yourself a hedge opportunity or something but you know identifying which of the 60 plus teams it is is kind of a challenge for sure uh i wouldn't recommend this to

anybody, but I did bet my Missouri Tigers at 500 to 1. But that's just because I'm a homeer. Well, it's interesting because, like, Ari just brought up Arkansas. And I think Arkansas is an interesting case because how much do the environmental factors matter? Like, Arkansas just played three games and three days in the SEC tournament. And they're going all the way out to Portland. So, you know, does that matter? Or does it all kind of wash out the, because I've always wondered if you go,

go deep in your conference tournament. Does it matter in terms of what you do when you get to the NCAA tournament? Not that I've seen. It's a bit of a mixed bag when you look at like from a covering perspective, you know, oh, did you lose early in your tournament or did you win your tournament? It's just so many other factors that come into play there. But, you know, some environmental factors that have already kind of made their way around social media. Talking about my Missouri Tigers, they're playing in St. Louis.

So essentially a home game for them. They opened two and a half point dogs. It's down to one and a half. I think a lot of action on them driven by the fact that, you know, people keep saying it's a home game. It's a home game. But it's still a neutral court, different sight lines, et cetera. It'll be an interesting game.

It's a capper, I think, on Friday night. Yeah. That will, yeah, smart to put them in prime time, by the way, in the de facto home game. John, well, good luck to your tigers, but also good luck to all of you out there who, maybe you're tailing John, maybe you're fading him, maybe you're fading us. But when we come back, Ari's rules for betting on the NCAA tournament. A guy who bets on everything, who will bet on two ants crawling on the ground to see who gets there first,

what are his rules for the greatest tournament in American sports? We'll be right back. So, Ari, I do wish good luck to John Ewing's Missouri Tigers. That is a very interesting game. I feel bad for Miami of Florida, the team they're playing. We talked a lot about Miami of Ohio, but Miami of Florida is the better-seated team that must play 10-seed Missouri in St. Louis. So that's you just kind of sometimes you get an unlucky draw on the thing. Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield, Andy.

That's exactly right. You and Mary Chapin Carpenter taught me that. Ari, you are one of the most active gamblers I know. You are someone who would bet on pretty much anything. So this week, I am curious how you handle this orgy of unbelievable basketball activity. Like, how do you deal with this? How does your head not explode during a week like this? Well, it does explode in a good way.

Um, listen, I love sports. You love sports. And the greatest thing about the NCAA tournament is that there are sports on nonstop for 12 straight hours and like a bunch happening at the same time. It's like degenerate Christmas. And, you know, that's why, you know, before we met and after we met, my wife and I and a bunch of friends go to the Mecca, Las Vegas, for the first round. every year. So, like, I really enjoy it. Now, the thing that I have a hard time with, Andy, is that people who watch and listen to this show know that we know a lot about football. We talk a lot

about football. We're plugged in with football. We talk to people involved with football. I am a fan of college basketball. So, like, I just go in, not feeling like I have a great grasp on everything. And that's what kind of makes it a little chaotic for me. But I think in a beautiful way. So I have certain rules that I like to live by or certain things that I do or don't do that help me navigate it so I don't get absolutely crushed every time I do this. And we can go through them one by one right now if you want. Yeah. One, I don't really come up with my own picks. Like I'm not the person that's going to outsmart the system.

And there are a lot of resources out there in somebody that we have on a lot in the fall, Tyler Shoemaker, is one where people who are actually crunching the numbers and the math who produce picks and give them out. Like, I usually use that as a guide. Because if I went in there right now trying to be like, yeah, well, I actually think that this 12, five game or this 12, five game is going to do it. Like, I don't know.

I don't know any more than, you know, even John Ewing knows, right? Well, I thought the number John Ewing throughout was really interesting about the free throw percentage, where if you're over 75% free throw shooting team, it's a 57% win rate. and I know some people might be saying, well, 7% above 50, how is that a big deal? That is statistically significant. That's a big number. Yeah. And I think that like using resources like John, which is why we had them on the show today,

is important because I think 90% of people in, you know, 61% of stats are made up offhand. But like a lot of people just go into it thinking, oh, North Carolina is playing so-and-so. They're North Carolina. I think that that's smart. I would do my best and I will do my best for the next three days to educate myself and to read as much as I can and lean on people who know what they're talking about. Two, I very much don't like betting games, Andy, that have like 25 point spreads. And like I go back to even last year's national champion.

Like Florida was a, I believe, a 29 point. favorite in the first round of the tournament last year before they won the national championship and they were playing i believe was it norfolk state and they won 95 to 69 so like they did not cover their 29 point spread and they were by far the best team and i don't enjoy that experience of like your team not only has to win by 25 but has to like maintain intensity and like there's too many variables at the end of games for me to enjoy that experience like that's not sports to me. That's just like, will my coach leave players in long enough where I can cover? So in those instances, if I do want to bet the heavy favorite, I like to chop the game in half

and I like to bet the first half because that way, you know, at least for the most part, like it will be a highly competitive game up until halftime to matter what the score is. And John mentioned that those are getting stacked into parleyes. Do you do a lot of parlayes or do you like, would you prefer to just do the half? I'm not a parlay person because, and I never have in any regard because I think it's hard enough to be right in one game, let alone three or four or five or beyond. And there are a lot of people, like John pointed out, Andy, that will stack a 20-point favorite in there to try to get like the odds boosted

a little bit, although it doesn't help that much if you're like minus 20,000 to win a game. But I've seen a lot of my friends who parlay lose parleyes because of the bonus add-in ones to try to choose the odds. So I try to just place 50 bets and win 35 of them or 30 of them. You know, like that, not 35. I would be a great weekend. 30 or 27 even. Even if I win 25, I'm happy.

And I think that's what and people who are experienced with this understand this, but the people who are newer to this, you're just trying to get a little above 50%. If you do better than that, that's great. But that's a historic run. Don't expect it to continue. You're a little better than 50% you're doing well. Nobody's out here, you know, shooting 75% on a, you know, consistent basis.

Because if they did, then they would be, they'd have the infinite money glitch. Also, I very much enjoy betting games live. And I don't know, depending on where you are, what state that you're in, or whether you're in person in Vegas, like I will be, how much access you have to actually going to the window and doing it live. But if you are on the apps or you are, have the bet MGM, app on your phone and they offer those, like I find it very compelling where you can find some very good value late games, second half of games where, you know, a team that is favored by

12 is losing by 10 with seven minutes left and you can get them plus 220 or something like, I enjoy that sweat. So if you want to like maximize your potential, instead of laying, you know, 15 points before a game, maybe wait it out and see if there's a spot that you can pick that, you know, also, it's also really great to like parachute into a game that's got seven minutes left and already be in crunch time. You know, a lot of times, too, if you're betting a full game, like you don't really get into it or it's not intense until the second half. If you live bet, you can enjoy the fray immediately. So that's something that you can kind of guarantee that you're going to get that moment rather than if you do it before a game, you may never get the moment. Like some some team just may blow somebody out or it may not be that interesting.

But yeah, if you do it at that point in the game, you're going to get the moment. And I've been with you a few times when you've done this. And I always like when you ask my opinion on this. And I like, all right, I am not the right person to ask for this. I mean, I do it all the time. Like, you know, again, I'm not trying to act like I'm some sort of like winning, gambling genius. You know, I do okay, but I have good days and bad days like everybody who does this. But I do think that there, if you are patient and you wait and trust me, it's the NCAA tournament.

Teams that are supposed to win will be losing and we'll come back and win in the game. If you're patient and you wait it out, you will find a really good moment where you might not win the bet, but you can get tremendous value by doing it this way, especially if you really like a team or a game before and you don't get your action in before the game starts and you like wait it out and watch the game. A lot of times you'll be able to get a better number in game than you got before the game. Lastly, and I know John didn't, it wasn't really a proponent of this, but I am. I like to try to identify. And like, listen, John is probably more of a math guy who's just trying to surgically win money. And like, that's great.

But like, we're talking to fans who are enjoying the experience. Like, you might be a fan of a team that's in it. So you might be emotionally tied to a certain team. But I think it's really fun to try to pick two or three teams in, in the bracket that are very long shots that might have an advantageous path or might have an underrated team or maybe somebody is a lower. were seed because their best player was injured for a large portion of the year and they're actually back and trying to like hit like 50 to one type bets beforehand because when those

Cinderella stories happen, which they do every year, if you have a few shekels on a team that's a long shot who's playing an elite game, that's an electric feeling that I cannot explain to you. I think it's like heroin, except it can't kill you. It's just like being along for the ride of a run that you have skin in the game. And like most of the time your team's probably going to lose in the first round, you know, or the second round. It's hard to thread the needle. But like if you try to pick a few horses that you can ride into the tournament with, they may be not obsessed so much over whether they cover the spread in their first few games,

but just advance. Like the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final 4 can get really entertaining depending on how things go. And then you have hedge opportunities as well. So like that's kind of how I like to do it. But also I like to have fun. And John said something stupid on the show. And I'm like, and I'll say it to his face too. you don't have to bet every game but you should you don't have to bet every

please gamble responsibly you don't have to bet every game you don't have to bet any of the games and i know that there's a segment of people out there too that don't care about gambling and i respect that like if you just want to watch the games and enjoy them for what they are you're a purist and that's great but this is the week when those people gamble because if you put five bucks in on a pool you're gambling yeah yeah and it's like everybody's got their brackets and whatever it's like a lottery ticket whatever but like you you there are ways to have fun without like crushing the bank too if you put a $50 bet on somebody who's 50 to one and they go deep in the tournament there's a chance and you and you find yourself rooting

for them like you went to college there it's fun yeah you don't have to be the person to put $100,000 on Purdue if you put five books on Purdue to make the final four and that makes you some extra money then like I for instance am an Arkansas fan like I've never been to to Fayetteville before believe it or not I am an Arkansas fan going into this tournament that team is so fun to watch. They're fun to watch. They've got a coach that's been on the stage a million times. They've invested their money in basketball and they're like 50 to one. Why wouldn't I grow a few bucks? A Cuff is so much fun. And then like DJ Wagner and John Calipari sung his praises after they won the SEC tournament. But DJ Wagner is a guy who went to Kentucky. I think he was the number seven

overall recruit in the country. So he's supposed to be won and done. This is the guy who wouldn't even be in college if this weren't the NILA. He would have tried to go to the NBA. Probably wouldn't have worked, but he would have tried. And now he is a very important player on a team that has a chance. Now, as already pointed out, their odds are long, but they just won the SEC tournament. If you can win the SEC tournament, there's a good chance. You can go deep in the NCAA tournament. Yeah. And like, you know, it's not like their path to the sweet 16 is impossible to overcome. Now, you might get dicey if you're playing Arizona and the, you know later in the tournament, which they will.

But, you know, hey, you know, you might get to that game and it might be Arizona versus Arkansas. You'll be sitting on a 50 to one ticket and Arizona will be a four and a half point favorite. Like, it's not like it's some sort of insane. Like I don't like betting on like Kennesaw State or Hawaii. Although, you know, if you would have done it a few times with some of the, I don't know how to identify those, but like teams that have really good players, NBA players on the team with a Hall of Fame coach, like, yeah, sign me up. there's so much fun to be had like the Hawaii team they don't necessarily help a lot of defense they just leave people one-on-one

which can either be great or horrible depending on how that goes it's a whole strategy cotton let's see how it bluish out yeah you're gonna see you're gonna see a lot of stylistic differences and look that's how you make upsets happen as you have this crazy or somebody just goes off from three point land like jack gulke a few years ago against Kentucky for for Oakland this year you know you've seen a lot of the names out there the one that sticks out because it's it's the coolest name in general is tj power tj power from pen who i believe is a 43 or 44 percent three point shooter so and if you know how to goes off if you

know how to find the st peters of this year please let me know i'd be very interested in hearing how to how to do that beforehand nobody can find the st peters of that year nobody nobody nobody knew that was coming. You know, the problem with the Cinderella runs is that the Cinderella runs all end before winning the national title. Like they don't ever win the title. They might go to the final four, the elite eight, and it's fun. So like betting like those gate, those teams to win it all is just a waste of money. Well, and I know what people are saying like, oh, Butler, you know, if Gordon Hayward shot goes, they won the national title. Gordon Hayward was the best player on the floor. Yeah. In the national title game. That was an NBA player. So yeah, that wasn't. And, that wasn't. And,

as big of an upset as you think it would have been. No, I like marble at the St. Peters one, Andy, because I feel like the entire athletic department budget at St. Peters was like half of Cal salary that year. Oh, I think it was less than that. Yeah. I think it was less than half. Yeah.

So it was insane. But it's going to be so much fun. And I do hope there's another St. Peter's in the mix here. We'll see. But I, a Dunk City. Like, remember Dunk City in 2015?

They took out a two seed. And then they make it to the Sweet 16. I mean, that was awesome. Absolutely awesome. So that's what we're hoping for. Love this week. We're going to talk some football this week, too, but we'll also get back into basketball scheduling notes this week.

On Thursday and Friday, listen, we know you want to watch basketball. We want to watch basketball, too. So the show was going to come out at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday and Friday morning, we'll be live at 10 a.m. Eastern Time talking about everything that happened in Thursday's games and getting you ready for Friday's games because, again, as much as we love college football, this might be the best week in American sports.

We'll talk to tomorrow.