Andy & Ari On3 - MORE COWBELL? Is Georgia on upset watch at Mississippi State?

Episode Date: November 6, 2025

As Week 11 is on the horizon, it's time for Andy & Ari to dive into the mailbag and answer questions from the incredible listeners. The fellas first dive into Georgia at Mississippi State and explain ...why the Dawgs could be on upset watch in Starkville. Then, we get into our best bets and mulligans of the week ahead of week 11. A jam-packed Dear Andy & Ari episode before the weekend! 0:00 On Today's Episode0:41 BetMGM3:14 Intro: French Fries at a Mexican Restaurant?7:18 Georgia at Mississippi State (+8.5)  13:35 Conference Tiebreakers15:57 Tyler Shoemaker joins: Oregon at Iowa19:45 Georgia at Mississippi State23:04 Kinnick Stadium25:55 UAB at Rice (-2.5)27:44 Conclusion with Tyler: The Parlay of Misery29:55 Wrapping up best bets31:51 Gametime33:01 Mulligan of the week37:37 PaniniAmerica.net40:30 Dear Andy & Ari: Coaching Carousel & Trey Smack48:19 Unintentional Consequences for SEC & Big Ten Teams with new CFP52:08 Could Texas win out?55:20 Is Miami the biggest disappointment?1:00:24 Thanks for watching! Once Andy & Ari run through the best bets of the week with Tyler Shoemaker, the guys select their mulligans of the week. Do you agree with their picks? Some great questions from our listeners include...Is it advantageous to fire your coach mid-season?The unintentional consequences of the expanded CFP for teams with 3 or 4 losses?Can Texas win out and make it to Atlanta?Is Miami the biggest disappointment of the realignment era? Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/nR4IKNgqNl8 Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email advertise@on3.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 On today is Andy Nareon 3 presented by BetMGM. It is a dear Andy, dear Ari Day. We have a question from a concerned Georgia fan about the Bulldogs and their lack of definitive wins. And we're joined by Tyler Shoemaker of Eason, our friend Tyler Shoemaker of the T-Shoe Index. Well, he has some interesting opinions on that Georgia-Mississippi State game. So we are going to look a little closer at that one. And we will also look a little closer at Oregon, at Iowa, plus questions about the coaching carousel and about the Miami Hurricanes.
Starting point is 00:00:36 All on today's Andy and Arion 3, presented by BedmGM. We are presented by BedMGM. We use BedMGM lines and totals when we are discussing games, and there is good reason for that because it is the best out there. Download the Bedmgmgm app. You can join BedMGM now using the bonus code CFB. That CFB is in college football, and you can get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here is how that works.
Starting point is 00:01:06 Download the BetMGM app, sign up using the bonus code CFB. CFB is in college football. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Also, if you've already signed up for Bet and GM, got a few things going on. on this week. The college basketball season has begun. So there's a college basketball odds boost token active on Friday, November 7th and Saturday, November 8th. No matter your team, the odds
Starting point is 00:01:38 boost token belongs in your starting five. Use that token for any college hoops bet and get a bigger payout if you win. Also on November 7th and 8th, Friday and Saturday, we've got a college football parlay boost token. So wherever the football action is, nothing like getting in the game leveling up your next parley, that one will boost potential payout from a winning college football parley. There is also a college football odds boost token, which you can use to level up a potential payout for a winning college football bet. So college basketball odds boost, college football odds boost, and a college football parley boost token, all available to you Friday and Saturday with BEDMGM. Make this college football season one for the history books.
Starting point is 00:02:22 make it legendary with BetMGM. See Betmgm.com for terms. 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers are not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in the U.S. Call 8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y. 4-6-7-369 in New York. Call 1-800 next step in Arizona.
Starting point is 00:02:46 Call 1-800-3-27-5-0-0 in Massachusetts. Call 1-800 bets off in Iowa. or 1-800-981-0023 in Puerto Rico. First-bed offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for Bed-MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today.
Starting point is 00:03:20 Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3. presented by BetMGM and the BetMGM lines are adjusting. We have our Mulligans coming up later. We have Tyler Shoemaker from Vison talking about his best bets of the week, which could get very interesting. And actually tie in Ari to a question we got. Well, sort of question. It's more of a statement, but it's also a question. And it's from one of my favorite listeners slash viewers.
Starting point is 00:03:49 That's Lori. remember lorry's the one who gave us the uh the white elephant coach exchange a few weeks ago that we turned into the uh the coach key party and uh and i are i don't even can we do the white elephant party because everybody joined the white elephant party yeah everybody for their coaches pretty much it's like the whole the whole sport joined so uh that was a really good question because it was a visionary question like they knew what was coming so thank you for that Lori. I'm glad to have you as a listener. Well, let's get into Lori's question, because one, she wants to challenge something you
Starting point is 00:04:24 say a lot, but also her fandom is suffering right now, and not in the worst way, because it's a case where her team is still good, but it is causing her a lot of stress. So this is from Lori. After living through the Georgia, Florida game, I remembered something important. The one glaring exception to the rule about different restaurants specializing in whatever cuisines is French fries at Mexican restaurants. Now, if you don't like battered fries, this won't do for you. But I think of all the best fries I've had, four out of five of them were on the side of chicken strips one of my kids got because they were woozy babies at a Mexican restaurant. This also might only be true of the particular type of Mexican food that exists
Starting point is 00:05:03 in the restaurants in the southeast. It's not real Mexican, but it's also not Tex-Mex. This is important because Lori and I are from kind of the same general area of the country. What Lori is talking about really pretty much only exists in like South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. And these fries at these Mexican restaurants, the same fries that you get at the Greek restaurants. I would imagine, yes, they're seasoned, very similar to checkers or rallies fries. They're delicious. Yeah. Yeah, they're amazing. Yeah. I know exactly what she's talking about. Yeah. And the thing is, it's true because these restaurants, they understand their customers. They have comically large margaritas, and they know that the kids aren't going to actually order Mexican food.
Starting point is 00:05:48 So they have a chicken strip basket that has really good fries, and that gets the kids in and the parents buy the margaritas. I mean, I guess like if we're going to try to poke holes in my rule for life every week, then like I'm good about that. But like, does children's menus at restaurants that just put chicken fingers and French fries in a friar count? Because everyone does that. But they usually do it in a bad way or in a way that's just generic. and it's the, you know, worst possible option of that, these particular fries,
Starting point is 00:06:16 and I know exactly what Lori is talking about, are really good. Yeah. I mean, you can mess up fries, but it's really hard to do that. But if she's thinking these fries are really... But going with the battered ones is a choice. Like, you could go to Sam's Club
Starting point is 00:06:31 and just get the plain old or write a drop them in the friar fries. Yeah. They are, they take it one notch up, and they're doing it. for sound business reasons, because if the kids are happy and they're enjoying their fries, the parents will order more comically large margaritas. I'm going to take it one step further. I might even say that the battered fries are the best
Starting point is 00:06:52 fries on earth. I'm not going to argue with you on that. I'm more a waffle fry guy. I love waffle fries. But the battered fries are spectacular. Yeah. We did a random ranking of French fries one time, like three years ago. We should do that. again. Because I think it also changes too. Oh yeah. Great off-season content there. But let's get back into the season. Let's get into Lori's problems with her team. Well, first of all, one thing she says about you. Ari, I'm sorry I like so many of your tweets. I just love when you argue with people on the internet when you know it won't do anything. It entertains and delights me. It does as well for me, Lori. Here's the football part of it. Now I'm going to cry because that Georgia game was just
Starting point is 00:07:38 too much for this Swissy baby. I just want to watch one Georgia game that we win by three scores against a real opponent. Let me just start this off, Andy, by saying my heart bleeds for you, Lori. I can't think of a worse existence on earth than being a Georgia fan. What an awful, awful year you must have had being number five in the country and only losing one game after enjoying two national titles in the very recent past. How will you survive this? How will you survive it, Lori?
Starting point is 00:08:07 I don't know. I do not know. But Lori's not wrong about this particular Georgia team. It has caused its fans a lot of stress. Going to overtime in Knoxville, the Florida game was quite stressful. If it had been called to catch, it would have been more stressful. Producer Rivers says his eyes are rolling into the back of his head. He's like, you could trade places with Tennessee fans.
Starting point is 00:08:34 But yes, Georgia has caused a lot of stress for the fans. Georgia is going to Mississippi State this weekend. Mississippi State, as you know, just got its first win of the Jeff Levy era in SEC play against Arkansas last week. But that's not really the point of this. The point of this is Mississippi State
Starting point is 00:08:53 the last couple times at home has taken teams that were supposed to beat them by a lot to overtime. And so Georgia's an eight and a half point favorite on the road. We're going to talk to Tyler Shoemaker in a minute, from Vison, who always, always uses his formula to try to find gaps in the line. He feels like he's found a gap in the line here.
Starting point is 00:09:13 And I think if you look at Mississippi State the last couple of times they've played at home, there is reason to be concerned if you're Georgia. They just seem to drag you into this kind of game. Well, I have a friend, okay, and this friend has had a rough go of it. And not anything in real life, like his parents do very well. his dad owns a doctor's practice um very blessed very fortunate great family great friends everything but like he has some girl issues growing up uh in college that you know a girl broke his heart or you know he went through some things that were real and he would be upset and we'd be on the phone
Starting point is 00:09:55 and he'd be all depressed and i'd be like i'm not going to say his name it's like dude like when you look around at your life like things are going pretty great for you and he goes these are my problems just because I don't have the worst problems on the face of the earth doesn't mean that I can't feel them and I like think about that all the time because every single time like I ever talked to them I go these are my problems and it's like if you're a Georgia fan like these are your problems you're not a poverty stricken you didn't lose a family member you know other people have far worse problems than you but you are allowed to feel those problems so I get that well and the thing is like Georgia's Georgia's path, the rest of the way, is not easy. Like, Georgia's only got the one lost to Alabama, but they have to play at Mississippi State, which we've established. They make it hard for, and by the way, Mississippi State needs to win one more to be bowl eligible.
Starting point is 00:10:54 It's Georgia, Missouri, and Ole Miss. Like, they've got to win one of those to get bowl eligible. That's not easy. Yeah. But they're desperate to do it. Georgia meanwhile after this they've got Texas at home they'll beat Charlotte but then they got to play Georgia Tech in Atlanta they're playing at Mercedes Ben so it's probably getting more like a 50-50 split crowd but that's not easy Georgia has according to the made-up math that ESPN does we
Starting point is 00:11:25 wrote a post about it on three Georgia is the fifth highest most likely team to make the playoff at 82% Ohio states number one at 96% Indiana number two at 94 Alabama third at 90 Texas A&M 84% at fourth and Georgia fifth at 82%. I don't know how they do that math because I feel like it says Ole Miss is 49% which is yeah there's no way to put all miss true but all the other SEC schools you know and I think that those the post that I was just reading off is a week old so maybe that changed in the in the week since but you know here's the one from the athletic that's done by our former colleague Austin Mock. He has Georgia
Starting point is 00:12:06 as an 89% chance to make the playoff and that's number six and Ole Miss is 96% at number four. So anyway, the point being that things would have to go terribly wrong for Georgia to not at least make it. And I feel like in this world of college football,
Starting point is 00:12:22 like your heart throb moments or those moments where you feel like you're about to keel over like when they overturned the DJ Lagway fumble, on Saturday aren't quite as tangible or aren't quite as heartbreaking as they would have been in 2020 when that could have ended your season. Like Georgia will ultimately be judged not by, you know, how many close games that played in the regular season or how many games it even lost in the regular season as long as it makes the playoff. What they will ultimately be judged by as was Penn State last year, as was Oregon last year, as was Georgia last year.
Starting point is 00:12:55 Yeah, as was Georgia last year with what you do in the postseason. and it seems fairly likely, highly likely that they will be in that postseason yet again, and then you can really freak out. But they got to go three and one the rest of the way. So they can drop this one, but they couldn't drop Texas or Georgia Tech. They have to go three and one? Or if they go, if they go two and O in their next two games, are they in the SEC championship game,
Starting point is 00:13:21 and then they can drop their last two, and it wouldn't even matter as long as they won't be a SEC night. Well, they might not be in the SEC championship game, though. There's tiebreakers. So, yeah, I don't know what those. And remember, Alabama is still undefeated in SEC play, and so is Texas A&M. So we need to have a show next week after the games are concluded on Saturday, like outlining everyone's tiebreakers. Because to this right, like right now, I don't know who controls their own destiny in the SEC.
Starting point is 00:13:42 I don't know who could, I guess it'd be Alabama and A&M since they don't play. It's Alabama and A&M because they're undefeated. But the ACC in the Big 12, I have no idea, like who had, like who, which two teams if they went out are in it. The ACC, the only one who truly controls his destiny is Virginia, because they're five. and in ACC play, although they lost to an ACC team in a non-conference game. What a weird sport. In the Big 12, BYU controls it because they're the only one undefeated, but they play Texas Tech. And if they lose to Texas Tech, then it becomes a lot more interesting.
Starting point is 00:14:12 But there are also three other teams in the ACC that might control it because they play other teams they're tied with. So even though you have a loss, if you play another team that also only has a loss, you both control your own destiny until one decides the game. Yeah, and remember, we're talking about two spots. because we're talking about both spots. So, like, Virginia controls this destiny. But if Virginia wins out, there's still another spot to figure out. But I just don't know which team, which team of Georgia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, SMU, and Duke do not control their own destiny, even if they went out. I think that we need to, like, figure that out next week.
Starting point is 00:14:44 We'll break that down after the games this weekend. The Big Ten, Producer Rivers says we have those standings. Yeah, it's, it's Indiana and Ohio State. Yeah, it's fairly obvious when you have to win. As long as they win. It doesn't matter. So that's where we're at right now. But does Michigan control its own destiny, which is exciting because we're going to Detroit?
Starting point is 00:15:03 And I think they do control their own destiny. Actually, they do. Yeah, because if they beat Ohio State, they're good. They're one conference losses to Washington. So they're in good shape. We'll find out. But Lori, I'm with you. I understand your stress.
Starting point is 00:15:20 And I'm going to make you more stress now because we're going to talk to Tyler Shoemaker from Vison. And we're going to talk about the Iowa Oregon game first because the Iowa Oregon game is one of the biggest games in the country, has massive playoff implications, and the weather report keeps going toward the Hawkeyes, or at least toward their style of play. For the Hawkeyes. I love how the weather is towards the hot. It's so funny, but it's true. It's moving toward their style of play. And then we're going to get into Georgia, Mississippi State, and you're going to get more nervous. I'm telling you right now.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Here's Tyler Shrewmaker. Tyler Shoemaker joins us and we love when Tyler comes in with his best bets and I especially love because I saw the text for what these these picks include and it's something that I'm on and Ari's not and I always love it when I am in agreement with Tyler because Ari tails Tyler all the time and now Ari can't tail Tyler because he's just going to get mad Tyler. Tell me, tell me about Iowa plus six against Oregon. Yeah, this is one that's not going to make you feel warm and fuzzy inside, you know, betting against Oregon and what we've seen them, you know, be able to do over the last couple years and betting on Iowa and what we know they can do. And that's probably why Ari is staying away from it because it, like he said before the show, that that's a lot of anxiety to go through to watch that game and be emotionally invested
Starting point is 00:16:50 and financially invested in Iowa. But my number makes it Oregon minus four in this game. So getting plus six is good value at that number. I'm not going to lay off of it. In fact, I'm hot and I like that my favorite thing in the world is the misery that comes along with doing that. Andy, don't talk crap about picks that you're on, and I'm not on Wednesday when we have a Mulligan in the holster.
Starting point is 00:17:16 Okay? Just, you know, nothing is perfect. This is Thursday, Ari. You're going to have to give your Mulligan right after this segment. No, I'm just telling you, we haven't done it yet. So nothing is set in stone. Tyler, what are you seeing in the numbers? Is it possible as Andy floated before the show that Oregon just isn't very good this year?
Starting point is 00:17:35 And we're still kind of riding on preseason expectations? Yeah. So when you look at what this number would have been in the preseason in my numbers, I would have had Oregon minus 13. But then if we just look at how these teams are trending over the the last three games, I would actually make Iowa a three-point favorite here. So these teams are kind of trending opposite directions from what we thought they were in the preseason. So I think that makes a lot of sense.
Starting point is 00:18:03 I'm just checking the weather again. Ari doesn't believe in checking the weather. But I believe in checking the weather. I don't know if I believe in checking the weather on Monday for a Saturday situation. Like if it's Thursday and it's telling you something, that's one thing. Ralph Russo, our chance of rain has gone up to 50 percent. from 24 the last time we looked. I might have to switch. I'm going to have to use my molligan here.
Starting point is 00:18:27 But yeah, so I guess it just thinks that like Iowa is good this year and we have to start thinking about this as maybe a playoff team. I think that's what you're saying right now on the show, Tyler, just so you know. Yeah, I mean, I think the thing with Iowa that's been kind of the most surprising, impressive, whatever adjective you want to use there is that they've been functional offensively and been able to score some points. I know early in the season everyone was kind of like Grinowski like not what we thought he was going to be
Starting point is 00:18:54 but they've they've pieced it together and they're actually putting up some points and they're a pretty good football team so I don't think we can hold Iowa offenses in particular of the past against this team because they have been able to put points on the scoreboard what was your projected spread for this game like what did you what's the number you came up with
Starting point is 00:19:14 and how much of a discrepancy is there between that and the real line yeah I've got I've got Oregon minus four so we're getting getting a couple points of value here that's a that's a not a lot of value for you is it like what else well it is because when you like the smaller the spread the less like ordinal difference you need so like yes it's only two points of difference but two points on a six point spread is not the same as two points on a 17 point spread if that may sense okay there's another one of your picks that made my eyes pop out of my skull Tyler because If this is happening, it's the game we're all turning our TVs to.
Starting point is 00:19:53 And, well, unless you have YouTube TV. Mississippi State plus seven and a half against Georgia, if Mississippi State is close again, like they were against Tennessee, like they were against Texas, could we see another down-to-the-wire game in Stark Vegas? We've seen a couple already this year. Yeah, I think so. I think there's a couple of things kind of at play here. here. One, so I'll start with my number. I make it Georgia minus five and a half.
Starting point is 00:20:23 And even over the last three games, you know, in conference play, I only make it Georgia minus six and a half. In the preseason, that number would have been Georgia minus 25. So again, we're talking about two teams that are, you know, Georgia's probably not quite as good as we thought, even though they're still pretty good. And Mississippi State is definitely a lot better than at least I thought they would be in the preseason. So we're getting, we're getting value here on the number. And again, obviously seven being a key number, we're getting the hook. on that. So I really like that. But SEC teams going on the road just have not fared well against the spread. And Georgia in particular just, you know, has this tendency to kind of play with its food a little bit. And weird things happen in Mississippi State home games in Starkville. I don't know if it's the cowbells or what, but they, they tend to play teams really close at home. So I feel good about this one.
Starting point is 00:21:11 So this week, you're just kind of doing the like torture yourself parlay. Is that what this is? Like, how many games can we pick that are going to be just? absolutely miserable to watch in the moment. But Ari, he's not predicting Mississippi State's going to win straight up. So it's not like the poor Mississippi State fans who've been through it this year, where their team has been in the lead and it's just
Starting point is 00:21:30 had their hearts ripped out of their chest and shown to them. Like that's not this. He just needs this to go to overtime and short you to win by seven. Andy, I'm going to ask you a personal question. Yeah. How much money would you have to bet on a game and lose for your wife to get upset
Starting point is 00:21:46 at you? my wife yeah probably probably a grand okay could you imagine putting a grand on Mississippi state and sitting there in the first quarter hoping that they don't lose by more than seven and a half and like having to sit through that for four quarters it's funny though because it is it is exactly
Starting point is 00:22:06 what Tyler is describing is the last two Mississippi State home games against SEC teams yeah I know imagine that is a viewing experience experience for you. You know, hey, you still have Gunner Stockton just sliding down at the one yard line on your side again. You know, that could always happen too. Like they could be going in for an 11 point win and they only win by four. That could happen. A smart player. Gunner Stockton does does the right situational thing. Like good situational football player. Yeah. Tyler, you were on
Starting point is 00:22:36 Georgia last week, right? Or no, you were on Florida last week, right? No, I was on Georgia minus seven and that. So you lost the bat. But I mean, but that was one of those where like Florida was covering the whole game. So like I I can't be too mad about it, but it would have been a nice backdoor there had he had he punched that in. Next off, I'm just, I'm just giddy because I looked at the weather report in Iowa City. This is, this is, it's all coming together right now. I mean, again, as an Ohio State fan, I know what Kinnick does to, to good teams. I, as a matter of fact, I saw my Facebook memories yesterday from 2017. I had made a post that says Iowa City where number one teams go to. die and that's Oregon's not number one but but I think the principal stands that good teams go in there and it's just like you never know what's going to happen it's crazy there and again with the weather like that's a whole other thing so yeah I feel good about about Iowa this week yeah I think the most interesting thing about that game guys is that my perception is that Oregon is every bit
Starting point is 00:23:37 of a national title contender as some of the teams in the SEC like Ole Miss and stuff that are ranked ahead of them I even would probably put Oregon on the same plane as Georgia. I don't know if that's an offensive statement to make on November 5th as we're recording this. And it's just like you should be able to beat Iowa on the road by a touchdown. Like that, and I think that that's probably going to be, you know, conventional wisdom or the way that the public bets. Like everyone's going to look at the Mississippi State Georgia game and be like, oh my God, all Georgia has to do is win by eight. Like, this is no brainer. So you're on sides that I assume would be the opposite side of public plays here, which makes me, I feel
Starting point is 00:24:13 little bit warm and fuzzy too because you would you would think that the mississippi state georgia line would be bigger yeah i i mean that that's not something that i necessarily like factor in but i but you are right that like when i look at these it's like okay i feel like people are going to see oregon only laying you know less than a touchdown against i i mean that's that's automatic i mean how many parlays is oregon money line going to be in this week and and georgia money line so i i again that that wouldn't drive me to be on a bet but it doesn't hurt I would stay away from those. Because the Oregon-Iowa game feels very trap-y, feels just,
Starting point is 00:24:51 and maybe I am making too much. I don't know about Tyler, because I get kind of fixated sometimes on one game in the season and say, oh, this happens, so this will happen again. For me, what's going through my mind when I look at the Oregon-Iowa game is Indiana, Iowa. And watching that game going, why can't Indiana get anything going?
Starting point is 00:25:13 and they do this to every they crush everybody how come they can't get anything going against these guys and then iowa you know looks great after that against wisconsin they beat penn state it looked great again against minnesota like i i just keep coming back to that i can't stop thinking about it yeah i i think that's that's a great point i mean indiana has pretty much thrashed everyone uh i mean including going to oregon and winning what i would describe as comfortably um so I don't think, if Oregon thinks they're going to show up at Iowa and everything's going to be sweet, I think they're in for a long day because that stadium is no fun to rank teams. All right, one more, and we're going, we're going sicko mode here.
Starting point is 00:25:59 UAB at Rice, UAB is a two and a half point dog on the road. UAB for those who don't remember, they fired Trent Dilfer, Alex Mortensen, son of the late ESPN reporter Chris Mortensen, becomes the interim coach, They beat Memphis. Then they go up to Yukon and lose. There's no shame in that. Yukon's a good team. Tyler, you are on UAB plus two and a half at Rice.
Starting point is 00:26:24 Yeah, I mean, this is as dumpster diving as it gets in terms of making bets. You know, like Ari says, you should probably call the number if you're telling me on this one. But I only make it Rice minus one. But again, a lot of that is based on the season, you know, it's the season long number where UAB was virtually non-functional under Trent Dilfer, but since he's been gone the last couple of games, they've actually looked like a actual Division I college football team. So I think this line still inflated over the last three games, I would actually make UAB about an eight-point favorite based on what they've done.
Starting point is 00:26:57 Now, obviously a lot of that is them beating Memphis outright, which is no small task. So I like I like UAB plus the points here. And to be honest, if you can't get a three, I think your best strategy, maybe do half a unit on plus two and a half on the money line. Tyler, you ever call the 1-800 number and then bet a friend on how many rings it'll take before they pick up over under like two and a half? Oh, gosh.
Starting point is 00:27:28 Tyler's not going to make fun of the number. No, no. He works for Vista. He's got to read that number every once in a while. We do too. No, I mean, if you need the number, which I've considered at times, like you call it. But, yeah, dude, I'm excited for this week. This is, this is like, I'm going to do the parlay of money line, all three of these picks.
Starting point is 00:27:50 And I'm going to call it the money line or the parlay of misery. Iowa, Mississippi State money line and UAB money line. Could you come up with like a three worse like scenario team to be in that position for? What other team would you need to win that would be more painful to watch? Yeah, no, that this is, this is it. This is the bottom of period. Well, I mean, the best part is, Tyler, Ari just had to sign up for the ESPN app
Starting point is 00:28:14 so he could watch the ranking show last night. He now has access to UAB at Rice on ESPN Plus. He can watch it in its entirety. There we go. Thankfully for me, I'm going to be in Vegas this weekend, so I'm probably not going to be watching, which will be much better for my mental health, I'm sure. Wait, what are you doing in Vegas where you're not going to be watching it?
Starting point is 00:28:35 well i'm going to a rodeo friday if you can if you can imagine that um i can't you can get on a rodeo like can you bet on rodeo yeah i'm just going to be out yeah i'm just going to be out and about uh if you can bet on the rodeo i will i will bet on the on the rodeo for sure i think you can bet on the rodeo i wonder what the algorithm says about the yeah i got i got a i got a consult with tSI on that but uh yeah um adam burke from bison and i are going to the rodeo on Friday. Okay. Well, I'll text you and I'll let you know how the most pivotal G5 game of the year
Starting point is 00:29:10 goes while you're watching a bull try to buck some human being off its back. Fair enough. I now need to see the bull power rankings. Let's let's get. Oh, my God. We've, we've now gone off the road. I'm just imagining betting the rodeo. And now it seems like a great Friday night.
Starting point is 00:29:30 But I'm, I'm with Ari. I'm going to be watching Memphis. Tulane. I'm watching USC Northwestern. Another sneaky good one. But Tyler, thank you so much. And I hope that you make Ari absolutely miserable this weekend. I hope so. Hopefully we can make some money and be miserable at the same time if that's possible. Yeah. Yeah, I'm always miserable. I would just like to not lose money this weekend. Yeah, exactly. Thank you, Ty. Thanks, Tyler. Thanks, guys. all right all right you're not you're going to hit that parlay the tissue punch you in the face parley
Starting point is 00:30:07 yeah if you took uab mississippi state and iowa all to win outright um $100 pays you 35 to 1 so 3,500 bucks all right and i think that if you watch all those games and have to live through that you're entitled to that money. We should add some sort of Florida State Clemson bet to it just to really put the screws to the person. If you like go look at the conference standings, like I'm going to pull them all up. I'm trying to think of like what teams would be the hardest to bet on and watch. They might cover, but which ones would be the hardest? And I've got a few.
Starting point is 00:30:48 I think Mississippi State would be up there, not just because they, I feel like they're a highly dysfunctional team. I think they're much better than we thought they would be, but who they're playing are also very good. Yeah. Iowa, with their style of play would be awful to watch and have to cover. You know who would be really hard to watch? Hmm. Syracuse. Syracuse. Syracuse. They can't throw. They cannot throw. Oklahoma State, if you're getting 28 points in the like Big 12 game, like, I don't know. I'm just saying like. Virginia Tech was that you really have no idea which version of Virginia Tech is going to show up. Yeah, Virginia Tech.
Starting point is 00:31:23 Because they can play well at times. There's probably been a lot of people who have bet on Colorado because of the Dion factor. They've given up 105 points the last two weekends. I don't know. By the way, Julian Lewis, your new starting quarterback at Colorado, Dion announced that this week. So the freshman will be the new starting. One last one. Wisconsin.
Starting point is 00:31:45 Yeah. Wisconsin plays Washington this week at home. That is going to be, uh, it's going to be something. Yeah. all right if you want tickets to that i'm sure the tickets of camp randall are pretty cheap if you go on the game time app and and search around you'll be able to see exactly where you'd be sitting what that looks like but if you want to go to texas tech if you want to go to lubbock and see biu texas tech in one of the biggest games the weekend you will have to pay a pretty penny but don't worry
Starting point is 00:32:09 game time has great seats for you you can sit in basically reach out and touch the players at jones AT&T Stadium on game time. Use the code Staples for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Of course, you could also go to Kinnick Stadium and watch Oregon play Iowa. You could go to Missouri and watch Texas A&M play at Missouri in a big SEC game. There's so much great football going on. And if you want to make a memory and have an in-person experience, you go to game time. You can do it day of the game.
Starting point is 00:32:42 In fact, you probably get the better deal doing it day of the game. download the GameTime app we're doing the code Staples $20 off your first purchase and remember the price you see is the price you pay no junk added at the end at checkout the price you see is the price you pay
Starting point is 00:32:56 swipe tap ticket go with game time all right all right it is Mulligan time now the bed MGM lines have adjusted over the week and so we get to choose mulligans like last week I took a few extra points
Starting point is 00:33:14 for SMU against Miami. You flipped completely. You took Texas instead of Vanderbilt, which was a good choice by you. What are we doing this week? You're muted, Ari. First of all, let me also point out, Andy, that Kentucky Plus 3 is one of Tyler's plays.
Starting point is 00:33:36 I don't know if I'm giving that away and he has a service, but I just like totally kneecapped him. Kentucky Plus 3 is also on his ticket this week. I don't know what he's doing. Yeah, at home. I know, but still, come on. Like, you know, I wouldn't, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:48 this guy's just, like, inflicting Max Payne this week. And I'm very, okay, so I want you to go first because I'm still mulling it over. Okay, I'm taking free points. If you give me free points, I'll take free points. Now, you may say the way this line has moved suggests that I should pick a different team. But I had Memphis minus six and a half against Tulane. That line has dropped to three and a half. I'll take Memphis minus three and a half now.
Starting point is 00:34:16 So I'll take the three free points toward Memphis. You may think that this suggests we should flip to Tulane. You can do that if you'd like. But I still think Memphis is going to win. I thought Memphis was going to cover the six and a half. So I will definitely take them to cover the three and a half. I'm not going to switch to Tulane. Why would I do that?
Starting point is 00:34:33 That would be a terrible value. I would be worse off than I would have at the beginning of the week if I do that. But you didn't pick Tulane. Did you? I know what I'm saying is if I, if I'm, laying six and a half i could have i'm saying if the line is moved this way you might change your mind and think two lane's going to win the game oh no that's not um so you've kind of boxed me out here you can take that one if you want it's but the thing that is difficult for me is if i don't
Starting point is 00:34:59 switch to memphis and two lane then i've got a worse number than you um true but but if you find a better value somewhere else then you take it but you're already on the game that I was going to switch. You're on Iowa already. And like I was going to switch that. No, I'm just going to keep Oregon. I'm going to also improve my line from three and a half to from Memphis 6 and a half to three and a half.
Starting point is 00:35:29 I think that Memphis is going to win the game by more than three and a half. Yeah. Is that boring podcasting or even the other one? No, I mean, that's the best move with what's available. We haven't seen, there haven't been a lot of strange line moves. Is there, like, have we seen anything flip this week? No, nothing that is. The other one that you could consider, Andy,
Starting point is 00:35:50 if you guys listen to the Cole Kublich segment, is LSU getting points. If you were moved by what he said, which I won't. Less points than we picked. When we picked it was Alabama by 10 and a half. It's now Alabama by 10, I believe. But, yeah, if you wanted to take 10 points
Starting point is 00:36:07 and think that LSU plays its best game of the season and you have 10 points to play, with i i can understand that i still think alabama's going to beat him yeah and i think that you're probably going to be like tyler is really good at what he does so if his one of his actual plays is iowa plus six that's probably a good position for you but i'm just going to call the bluff and just i want to see that happen i want to see that i'm glad we're on opposite size of that game because i think it makes it more interesting and i just i can't wait i think that's going to be a really fun game i don't know that's going to be the most beautiful game uh especially if you're an organ
Starting point is 00:36:41 fan you may you may hate the way it winds it being played but it's not that i think like i i i keep saying i want to see organ dragged into into an iowa game but the thing is if organ goes to iowa city and wins an iowa game in iowa city like let's say they win the way indiana beat iowa that that is a good thing for organ because it means you are capable of winning in more more than one way because this is a good team like Iowa is a good team this is a big challenge for Oregon so if they can win a close game at Iowa where they have to grind it out where Iowa's defense makes it very tough on them then that just helps Oregon in its path to the playoff so I think I think it's going to be fun either way and I am very glad that we are on opposite sides of it because I very much looking forward to making fun of you when me and Tyler are right so let's let's let's let's let's move on to more question well actually before we move on to to more of the dear andy dear are questions we do have some good questions let's rip a pack visit pinini america dot net to start your collection today ari's got all the slabs i've got a pack
Starting point is 00:37:51 of donners football right here 2025 donners football we are looking for autographs we are looking for inserts you're looking for downtowns as for the way downtown yes you see word downtown on the card you hit gold all right so we have a darnel mooney rashad bateman got a press proof t o'torel owens tio has bachel tootin rated rookie he's got a touchdown last week for the jacks justin herbert kenneth walker the third the guy who made mel tucker all that money and then he didn't the rookies the rookies was one back in the day that I loved when I was collecting the Donner's baseball cards
Starting point is 00:38:40 when I was a kid. This is Matthew Golden, the rookies. Remember, we had Matthew Golden on our show the day he got picked by the Packers at Lambo Field. We got a Romo Dunzee bomb squad, Joe Burrow,
Starting point is 00:38:56 and Mark Andrews. Ari, what do you have on your desk there? What pinini gyms do you have on your desk? Oh, what do we have here? What is that? This is a briefcase. of slabs. If you want to know how serious I take this hobby. Holy crap, look at that.
Starting point is 00:39:12 I have a Jamar Chase, the rookies. I'm not going to be able to find it, but this is one of my crown jewels here. I've got two of them. You ready? If you want to know how serious I am about the hobby, here is a Patrick Mahomes
Starting point is 00:39:29 PSA 10 XRC select rookie card. That's a very, this is going in a safe and I'm holding this forever and it's been like certified like it's it's legit Josh Allen rookie auto PSA 10 out of prism these are two of my biggest cards and I will be holding these for long periods of time I was going to show you I've got a PSA 10 Jamar chase the rookies purple stars out of optic PSA 10 that's in there somewhere auto and it's a double 10 I've got some nukes in that in that in that in that briefcase but
Starting point is 00:40:03 you know pinini sends us stuff. I actually hit a Travis Hunter downtown, which I posted to my Twitter a few weeks ago. That's already off the PSA getting graded. But I'm going to try to, like, show you some of the bigger ones that I'm, like, holding forever. And those are two big ones.
Starting point is 00:40:20 Nukes. That's a real new. You get the nuclear briefcase, or you can just have Ari's nuclear briefcase. That right there. Go to Paniniamerica.net to start your collection today. Ari, let's answer some questions. This one comes from Brian.
Starting point is 00:40:35 It's on the coaching carousel. Does firing your coach midseason actually hurt your chances of hiring your preferred candidate? This year we've seen Penn State, LSU, Florida, and others already fire their coaches. Kurt Signetti and Matt Rule were instantly rumored to be hot candidates, but then both signed mid-year extensions, which took them off the board. Wouldn't it be better to wait until after the season to ask your current coach? That would give much less time for other names to be mentioned in the media as potential hiring targets. It would likely lead for there to be less of an impetus for schools to push through extensions for their current coaches.
Starting point is 00:41:04 Also, P.S., have you guys never, unless I missed it, mentioned that Florida's kicker is named Trey Smack. Is that not the perfect name for a kicker, the most perfect name for a kicker in the history of kickers? Second question, first, Trace Mack is a great name for a kicker, especially because Trace Mack hits bombs. Trace Mack is a good kicker who routinely hits 50-yard-plus field goals.
Starting point is 00:41:26 Great name. Great kicker name. Yeah, are we entering an era of kickers being able to kick further field goals now? like you saw that dude from Jacksonville hit what was that, a 68 yard? Yeah, 68. Well, I think in the NFL, because they now let you work the what they call the K balls, the balls for the kicker, let you work them for a week. Like, those are, because it used to be you had to have like a fresh out-of-the-box ball.
Starting point is 00:41:49 That apparently gets them like five more yards. So we're going to see a, like Cam Little, the Jacks kicker who hit the 68 yarder, he made a 70-yarder in, in preseason. The kicker, the kick that he made that was from 68 would have been good from five more yards away, though. Like, that's the other thing. It's sailed over the posts. But I've noticed that kickers in college have had a longer range than I remember them having, or at least more reliable range.
Starting point is 00:42:17 Yeah, Tate Sandel, Oklahoma's kicker, made the longest kick in Neeland Stadium history last week against Tennessee. He was, he was, awesome. Was it 55? I think it was. Yeah, it was. hit a 55-yarder and a 51-yarder. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:37 So I don't know. But Trace Mack is a great name. I wonder if they could be like, there's, Trace Mack could be a good name and a lot of other things too. Well, if you're like, it's also a great name for a corner or a receiver because you talk. Or other like vocations if you,
Starting point is 00:42:51 you know. Oh yeah. A Russian slap fighter. Yeah. Or you could be like, yeah, a Russian slap fighter. Trace Smack would be sick. Or like a serial character.
Starting point is 00:43:00 Oh yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Like Diggum was the frog with the Honey Smacks. Yeah, Honey Smacks. Just Trace Max, the new mascot for Honey Smacks. And then other video services too. Let's answer, let's answer Brian's coaching question. I don't think it matters if you fire a midseason or if you fire them late season. I think Kurt Signetti was going to stay at Indiana because if Kurt Signetti didn't want to stay in Indiana, he would not have signed that contract. I think Matt Rule is probably not going to get hired by Penn State. I think if Matt Ruhl is probably not going to get hired by Penn State. I think if Matt Ruell was a serious candidate for Penn State, he also would not have agreed to that contract extension. So it is notable that one Lane Kiffin has not, to this point, announced that he is signing extension at Ole Miss. Now, he may at some point do that, but he hasn't yet. So the coaches that are wanted in this case are very much in control of that part of it. I'm also flattered that you think that we have that much power. Uh, because even
Starting point is 00:44:00 if these coaches aren't fired, like everybody behind the scenes knows what's coming. Like, it's not like if Billy Napier was still the head coach at Florida that we wouldn't know in that other, you know, places. Also, Florida was doing due diligence on potential Billy Napier replacements before they fired Billy Napier. Right. And Florida State is probably doing due diligence on potential Mike Norvel replacements, even though Mike Norville still has a job.
Starting point is 00:44:27 And Florida State would probably like to find a way to keep him. Like, they would love him, like, or Bell just won out, went eight and four, and they didn't have to buy him out. Yeah, like, there's an entire underbelly of phone calls that are always happening beneath the surface long before it gets to this podcast. So, you know, I think that we don't, we don't pull those names out of thin air. Like, yeah, we're talking to agents and people who are involved in these conversations. So when we put up the hotboard, now sometimes. it's because it's obvious. Like when Pete Nacos' hotboard went up when Auburn fired Hugh Freeze and John
Starting point is 00:45:06 Summerall is at the top of it, like one, we've talked to agents about that, but two, that's just an obvious choice. Now, Cole Kublich is all worried because it's two obvious he thinks and the AD may want to do something different, but I want to give our listeners a little key in on something and you taught me this, Andy, when we were at the athletic and it's like brilliant. but if you ever are like listening to the show or you know hearing us have a prediction and then like two weeks later you're like oh yeah man and he nailed that or Ari was right about that it's because we know what's coming or what's going to happen and we're telling you without telling you so like a lot of times sometimes you get tips that you cannot pass along you can't even say a source said this but you are reasonably certain that it's going down so sometimes we'll like be like well this could happen and it's it's what's going to happen like and you know like we're doing our best to you know do a good podcast but you got to remember too that both of us you know do talk to people
Starting point is 00:46:06 andy yeah a lot more than me he's on the phone constantly but like we are we we don't do educated guests a lot we we put out a hotboard based on on information that's gathered and you got to remember too that we have some of the best reporters in college football working on our staff with us. Like Chris Lowe and Pete Nacos and Brett McMurphy are very plugged in people and we have conversations with them about stuff constantly. So, you know, if you're looking for, you know, entertaining product, well, that's us, but we also try to be entertaining about information that we're gathering and know. And I feel like we're closer to the situation than other people on YouTube that just have a mic in front of their face. So that's part of the hope that separates us.
Starting point is 00:46:46 Well, and there are surprises. Like surprises still happen. Like I'll never forget, and I'm sitting there on a couch and a tweet comes out from Nebraska. We've hired Mike Riley as our football coach. And the whole college football world is like, what? We thought Mike Riley was getting fired by Oregon State. Yeah, it's like to say that we'll never be wrong, but a lot of times our hypothesis and hypotheses and like predictions and forays into the future are educated guesses based on information gather,
Starting point is 00:47:16 we're not just pulling shit out of our ass. So anyway, yeah. But yeah, so I don't know that it makes that big of a difference when you fire the coach because, again, if you are considering firing your coach, so if you've got Florida State is the example I use where they're clearly considering it, if they get to the point where they were ready to fire Mike Norville, they have already had multiple conversations and have a very good idea of who the potential pool of candidates is and who would realistically entertain the thought of coming there. So all of these places have done that. LSU, probably the most disorganized of the bunch, and you have the governor jumping in. But I guarantee you, even though you've got Verge Osbury in charge, Scott Woodward thought he was going to make the hire,
Starting point is 00:48:04 and then he got fired. They probably had a pretty good idea of who might come. Also, when you have a job like theirs, you know a lot of people are going to want to come. But these other ones, they have a pretty good idea. of what the candidate pool is. Yeah. This comes from Matt.
Starting point is 00:48:23 Dear Andy and Ari, it seems like we've now discovered another unintended consequence of the expanded playoff. Tier two and some tier three SEC and Big Ten football programs think they should be in the playoff if not every year than most years.
Starting point is 00:48:34 Are we seeing the end of coaches in these two conferences being able to survive more than one eight-win season, meaning coaches who sign on to programs and the SEC and Big Ten should expect to be fired if they have consecutive eight-win seasons.
Starting point is 00:48:45 I can only imagine it will be even worse with the eventual expansion. to 16 teams. What do you all think? I've always said, expectations adjust accordingly. So I don't think, like, I'll give an example. Florida just fired Billy Napier. If the next coach at Florida wins eight games the first two years, they're not going to fire him after two years. Because he improved on Billy Napier, and then, you know, you had another eight-win season, which is probably going to be frustrating. But as long as you then have a playoff caliber season, you're fine.
Starting point is 00:49:15 do Penn State now Penn State's different because expectations adjust accordingly. Penn State's expectation is we want you to win a national title. We have gotten close. We are right there. The next coach needs to take us to the national
Starting point is 00:49:31 title. Like I said, the cop for Penn State is Georgia firing Mark Richt who is winning double digit games fairly routinely but not getting over the hump. Yeah. So do you think that if the new coach Coach at Penn State goes 10 and two the next two years with losses to Oregon and Ohio State.
Starting point is 00:49:49 Well, actually, I think that Penn State misses Ohio State for four years coming up, which is an unbelievably terrible Big Ten scheduling oversight. That's outrageous. They're not playing that game. But if they go 10 and two for three or four years in a row or two, let's just say three years, out of the gate under the new leadership, is that person fired after year three? Like, how long did they only lose the game? to the better teams. Right. If they just have James Franklin's seasons for two or three years, how long does it take before that seat fires up? Oh, it won't take long at all because the idea was to do something different.
Starting point is 00:50:28 Which makes, to me, Florida, a more attractive job than Penn State. Oh, that's, I've been saying that the whole time. At Florida, you just do better than Billy and Apier. At Penn State, you've got to be better than James Franklin. Which is unbelievable because the expectations of these two places have shifted dramatically in flipped because James, Franklin, guys, he was in his job for more than a decade and only won one conference title. Like to be in a job that long and not win anything of consequence outside of one year
Starting point is 00:50:56 and then not making the playoff in that one year because I believe they lost a pit earlier in the season. They did lose to pit early in that season. It's a pretty remarkable run length of time wise for a coach. So if you are the next coach at Penn State and James Franklin already did the foundation part for you and you're expected to be the person that wins national titles, you are now in a more SEC situation than you will find anywhere outside of Ohio State in the Big Ten. Oh, 100%.
Starting point is 00:51:23 Or the SEC. I think there's more pressure on the Penn State higher than on any coach in this cycle, including the LSU. It's higher than Mike Elko got at A&M. And you're talking about the place that signed the largest buyout in the history of the world. Mm-hmm. Not just in football, the world.
Starting point is 00:51:40 I don't think it was the largest buyout in the history of the world. There have been some corporate CEO Golden Parachutes that were considerably more. I would love to look that up. We'll do that. We'll effort to do that off-season. We should start comparing coaching buyouts to like what happened at Apple before Steve Jobs took over. Yeah. Again.
Starting point is 00:52:07 I don't know the answer to those things, but it'll be fun. Next question. Next question is from Matthew. Hey, y'all. Love you guys in the show. As a Texas fan last week was very encouraging. Winning out would be a massive mountain to climb, but hear me out. If Texas wins out, they will have wins against Oklahoma, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M.
Starting point is 00:52:30 UT isn't dead, and the A&M game could end up being a play-in game for Atlanta again. I'm not counting chickens yet, but by any means. But if UT were to win out, has there ever been a team? to fall so far and rise so high in one season. Fun hypothetical. I think different errors are different, but I would go with the Ohio State team you covered in 2014 when they lost to Virginia Tech,
Starting point is 00:52:53 we just buried them. We thought they were done. They ever fall out of the rankings? I don't think they did. I don't think they did because it was only one. But you could only have one loss then and still compete for the national championship. Texas was number one preseason and fell out of the rankings.
Starting point is 00:53:06 And then if they do what he just suggested. This would probably be the biggest one. LSU won the national title with two losses in 2007. They lost, remember, they took loss number two in the last week of the regular season. They lost to Arkansas. That was that Derrim Nick Fadden got that Wood game. And from this standpoint, starting point up here, lowest level of off the screen, and then back up to up here.
Starting point is 00:53:33 I don't think I've seen. Yeah. What is Texas ranked in the final CFP rankings? Let's say they went out. So they win out means they go to the SEC championship game. So let's just, if we're going pie in the sky, let's just say they win them all. Let's say they win out and win the SEC championship game. They will not be.
Starting point is 00:53:51 I think they'll be two or three. It'll depend on how the Ohio State Indiana Big Ten championship game went. I think it would be two because of their resume. Their resume would be insane. That's true. The resume would be really good. It would be the SEC champ. They will be on a winning streak.
Starting point is 00:54:06 And I know how much Notre Dame fans think that's important. Sorry, I couldn't know myself. They would definitely be ahead of Notre Dame, that is for sure. We would have five top 15 wins. That would be insane. They would be number two for sure. I don't know if it would like, it doesn't really matter much in the grand scheme of things
Starting point is 00:54:23 because the top four all get buys and how the bottom half of the bracket looks will impact your path. Yeah, that's the thing. Like we don't know if one, two, three or four is the best spot yet. We have quite figured that out. Texas does that. They might end up going into the playoff as the favorite in at that MGM to win the championship. Well, right, because they'd be kind of the hottest team in America.
Starting point is 00:54:43 Think about what they would have had to get through to do it. Yeah. So, I think, now, I don't think that's going to happen. I think they're going to lose to Georgia or A&M would be my guess. I think they might win one of them. But the problem is if you lose to one of them, you're probably not making the playoff. Yeah, I can't wait to get out to Athens next weekend, dude. It's going to be.
Starting point is 00:55:04 It's going to be so much fun. That game's going to be awesome. Yeah, I'm looking forward to that. No matter what happens. of Georgia in Starkville this weekend. Sorry, Lori. Sorry to bring that part up again. I think Georgia will be fine.
Starting point is 00:55:19 Yeah, I think they'll win. This one's from Jeff. Jeff. This is Miami's 22nd season playing in the ACC, and they've never won the conference and only played in the ACC title game once. The ACC set up their old divisions with dreams of Miami meeting Florida State
Starting point is 00:55:34 in big-time conference title games that never came to fruition, not that FSU kept up their end of the bargain in some years. is Miami the biggest disappointment in the era of major realignment. Nebraska hasn't been great, but they didn't enter the Big Ten following especially great seasons like Miami did, and they didn't enter with as big of expectations. Also, Miami and other teams leaving destroyed Big East football, and I'm still bitter about that. And there, we get to the real reason. Jeff is going to say, are we going to get to it or what?
Starting point is 00:56:02 Yeah, Jeff's just mad because they left the Big East. But Jeff's not wrong. I remember when Miami announced they were going to the AC. and the ACC, and the ACC created the Atlantic Division and the Coastal Division. It was like, okay, this is set up for the Florida State Miami championship game every single year, and it never happened. Yeah. Financially speaking, I don't know how much worse off the ACC is as a result of that, not coming to fruition, because that's the only thing that really matters, I guess, to the people who are signing those checks and making those moves. But from a, I feel like if Miami were anything close to what they were in the early 2000s for, you know, a third of their time in the ACC, I view that the conference's like reputation would be completely different.
Starting point is 00:56:50 Yeah. From a cultural cachet standpoint, it's so different. And if Miami had been competing for national titles and you'd seen these Titanic Miami, Florida State games that had massive national title implications, The ACC would be better off as a league. Yeah. We would think of them different. Because what happened to the ACC on Tuesday night? The ACC was shown massive amounts of disrespect by the college football playoff selection committee. The highest ranked ACC team is number 14.
Starting point is 00:57:23 They are below the third highest ranked Big 12 team. Which is, you know, if you want to, you know, play the ACC victim card in comparison to the Big Ten and the SEC, then go for it. But like, gang. kind of smacked around by the Big 12 that way. It's kind of embarrassing. So, you know, I don't know how it's going to go. We expect it with the Big 10 in the SEC. We expect them to be viewed that way relative to the ACC.
Starting point is 00:57:48 We did not expect the Big 12 to be going into this season. But I got to say, I don't have a problem with it when I see it in the rankings. Yeah. And you have a lot of ACC teams that are kind of like in the same boat. And it's kind of hard to differentiate them. And some of them don't even play each other. But, you know, you do have a lot of ACC teams. representation in the bottom half of the standings that will like Georgia Tech and Pitt and
Starting point is 00:58:11 Louisville and Virginia all have a chance to rise up if one of the ACC teams takes care of business. Now the problem I think is going to happen is what if like there are four teams that are two lost teams at the end of the year in conference play? Then you're going to have a complete disaster and the only team that's going to get in is going to be the conference champion. Right. Now like you guys, a bunch of people pointed out Georgia Tech is the one that could get in without winning the conference. Because if for some reason they end up 11 and 1, but the tiebreakers keep them out of the conference championship game,
Starting point is 00:58:43 but they have a win against Georgia and the only losses that lost to NC State last week, they'll be in the playoff somewhere. And then the ACC champ will get in probably as the 11 seed, maybe even the 12 seed. That's the thing. Like, what if Memphis wins out and the ACC champ has like three losses? I mean, we saw it happen last year, so, you know.
Starting point is 00:59:04 Yeah, Boise State was the ninth ranked team wind up the, winds up the third seat because of the seating rules that were in effect then. But Boise State would not have been the 12 seed last year. Boise State would have been the nine seed. But there's nothing that, there's nothing that I think that a G5 team can do this year to work its way to the top four. Yeah. No, not going to happen. But if the American champ comes out of there with one loss, if it, if it. there's a 12 and 1 American champ.
Starting point is 00:59:33 There is a good chance they're ranked number 11 above, or they're seated number 11 above the ACC champion if the ACC champion has two or three losses. Yeah. Wow. So it's crazy. It's crazy. But I'm glad I like your idea.
Starting point is 00:59:50 Let's do that Sunday. So Sunday we're going to do, we'll do a bracketology video where we talk about all of the playoff implications of various games. But also Sunday, let's do a conference by conference. Here's how this team gets into the championship. Who controls their own destiny, yeah. Yeah, because I think the ACC is going to require a lot of explanation.
Starting point is 01:00:16 And I'm going to have to probably call somebody at the ACC office and be like, please explain this to me like I'm five. Yes, yeah. This is the fun part of having 29 team conferences, but it's going to be good. It's everything you ever hoped and dream when Callan Stanford joined the ACC. What a world. Thank you for watching. Be sure to subscribe to the On Three YouTube page.
Starting point is 01:00:39 Be sure to subscribe to On Three. We've got incredible deals going on right now for subscribers. You get access to all the message boards. You get access to your team site. You get Intel on the team you love. And you get to read great national reporters like Chris Lowe, Pete Nacos, Brett McMurphy. You get to read me in Ari's columns. You get to fade or follow our picks, but you can do that just watching the show.
Starting point is 01:01:05 We appreciate that. Thank you so much. We will talk to you on Saturday. Unless something crazy happens Friday, we got to talk to you then.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.