Andy & Ari On3 - Oklahoma SURVIVES LSU | Sooners battle to keep CFP hopes Alive vs Tigers | Lane Kiffin Watch Continues

Episode Date: November 30, 2025

Oklahoma was in a TOUGH battle vs LSU and came out on top to keep its CFP dreams alive. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is hoping to keep its College Football Playoff dreams alive as they travel to Knoxville to take on in-state rival Tennessee. How will these afternoon games shake out? Watch here LIVE with Andy & Ari On3 from the MGM Grand in the BetMGM Sports Lounge in Detroit. This show is presented by Modelo! Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut Butter and jelly. Macaroni and cheese. Modelo and college football. If you’re watching this, it means you live and breathe football. All season long. You know what that makes you? A Full-Time Fan. Which means you deserve a Modelo. Because football wouldn’t be the same without you. Modelo is the official beer sponsor of The College Football Playoff. Drink responsibly. Beer imported by Crown Imports, Chicago, IL Our show is also presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtube.com/live/-PqE9MPSmOk Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to an instant reaction edition of Indian R&3, presented by BetMGM and Modelo. Probably the greatest thing about, well, one of the greatest things about the MGM grand here in Detroit, the sports book. Modello in bottles and on tap. Yeah. It's a perfect encapsulation of Americana in here. And you're just, you know, you're rocking with your Bet, MGM app, just watching all the games. And unbelievable. You know how I feel.

about it. I can't wait to watch the Iron Bowl in here tonight, Andy, but we got some stuff to get into first. We do have some stuff to get into because there was a lot of danger for one particular assumed playoff team. Oklahoma was in deep, deep trouble before Isaiah Satania popped wide open there at the end, and then Oklahoma's defense held on a fourth down where I don't know what LSU was doing on that fourth down play. Yeah, there's a lot of moving parts here. Let's just start with the LSU part of it. That's a perfect encapsulation of a season that you can't. wait to forget probably. Like, you know, you're playing in a situation where you have a top 10 team on the ropes,

on the road and like coverage bust. And I think that guy would have scored on that play. So, you know, that helps save Oklahoma season. And honestly, I think made the lives of the college football playoff committee a lot more complicated. Because if you would have taken Oklahoma spots back as an open spot and the top 12, that might have cleared up a debate or two. Yeah, because Vandy beat Tennessee. So that adds another layer to the discussion.

That's a 10-and-2 team, but there's a 10-and-2 team with a head-to-head loss to a 9-and-3 Texas. Yep. We'll see what happens to Alabama, but if Alabama were too loose to Auburn tonight, that would be another 9-and-3 team with a head-to-head loss. Vandy would have the head-to-loss to them. Yeah, there are a lot of things that you could, like, say, and I'll just say confusing after it, because that is confusing. We were running through scenarios on the car ride back from Ann Arbor to Detroit,

and we're asking each other, well, who would you choose? what would you do? How do you feel about that? And it really is an interesting situation because last year I made this prediction in the middle of the year about how there's going to be too many teams for two fewer spots. That didn't happen. At the end of last year, there were three lost teams that were saying they deserved it, but it was pretty cut and dried last year. This year, I think we're going to get into a situation where you have 10 spots that aren't spoken for from a Big 12 champion or the G5 champion that are going to be up for grabs. You might have 14 teams that feel entitled to go there. this year. Well, you mean the ACC champion? The potential Big 12 champion is way up there in the right thing. So now, BYU is a different story. We'll see what happens with them, but they, they beat UCF today. So they are looking at a situation where they're going to play Texas Tech again in the Big 12 championship game. That game is not very competitive at the first time. But if BYU wins, I think both Big 12 teams get in. If Texas Tech wins, I think it's probably just Texas Tech. Yeah, I think I agree with that. I don't know if that's a fact, but I think

I agree with it. So let me, let me throw another one at you. We think that Alabama and Tennessee, even with three losses, even at 9 and 3, get in over Vandy at 10 and 2. Do we? Alabama, I believe. You mean Texas, not Vandy? I'm in Texas, yes. I'm sorry. I believe Vandy is out.

Right. Right now. They need an Oklahoma to lose bad. Right. Right. And Oklahoma's in, but that also helps Texas's resume because Texas now has two wins against playoff teams. Who else has two wins? wins against playoff teams um we have to go down the list is there Ohio State

Ohio State does not does not no Indiana has one Oregon yep no so Indiana doesn't let's go down the list Texas Tech does not that we know of Texas A&M no does not uh Notre Dame they have they have if Notre Dame's in they have that one yeah so that okay so Georgia has Texas and has Ole Miss. So they definitely have one with Old Miss. We don't know if Texas winds up in there. Yep. Texas Tech does not.

Oregon does not. Ole Miss does not. Oklahoma has Alabama. But I think that might be it for playoff teams, right? That's it. That's it. So no. Internet's kind of failing me here.

So once this thing loads, okay. Yeah, we got the rankings on screen. Notre Dame most certainly doesn't. Alabama does, right? Yeah. Alabama has a win against Georgia. also has a win against Vanderbilt, which we don't know whether that's a playoff team or not, but they're a 10-win team.

Miami's a 10-win team. Utah's a 10-win team. BYU's an 11-win team. Yeah, the only team that has multiple wins right now that I'm saying over teams currently in the field or who will make the field is Texas. Yes. Yes. And the two teams that Texas beat are pretty comfortably in because Oklahoma was eight.

like there Oklahoma is not falling out in favor of anybody else right so you know I think it's going to be a very compelling thing and I think there's a line here Andy and I said this to you in the car but contrived debates that we have on the show that we have with other people on Twitter that people are having amongst themselves on Twitter are fun to have but we have to draw the line between what we think is a debate and what the committee will find is a debate right like I don't know how realistic it is that Texas gets back into this thing I think if their resume deserves a discussion, but will the committee have it? I think those are two different thing. I think that's a good point because I also think this committee has acted differently from previous committees. And so we're trying to apply

logic based on what other committees and other years did because they did sort of act consistently. This one has not acted consistently compared to them. Yeah. You know, and there are certain things that I think are messed up about this. I'm sure there are certain things that you think are messed up about it and like what the committee actually fixates

I feel like it's more unpredictable in this year's cycle than it has been in years past. Yeah. It's been easier to clear up because back in the day, when it was only four teams, everybody with two losses was just out. It was a smaller pool of teams you were choosing from. And if you're going to, you know, include a three lost team in there potentially, that opens up Pandora's box for a lot of different teams. And I'm sure that there are Vanderbilt fans who are watching the video right now who are like, why the hell would already say that we're out?

I mean, I guess I can't definitively say that because you're a 10-win team in the SEC. I think the question is who you're in over. like who's out who's losing that that you get in over right because if Alabama loses that's pretty much the only team left to potentially lose tonight you're not getting in over them they you lost to them yeah I mean like here's the thing I don't know we've had this this discussion head to head maybe doesn't matter in some cases been like Miami has been directly compared to Notre Dame by me over and over again but why don't we compare Miami to bandy why don't we compare Miami well the committee's going to do that and I wonder where the committee is going to land like

is Miami beat the crap out of Pittsburgh on Saturday. And I wonder if Miami is going to creep back into this thing. You know, I'm not saying it. I'm not saying it over Notre Dame. I'm saying if you're going to sit here and have a conversation about Vanderbilt. So you're going to put them in over Alabama? Because I don't know. That's why I'm explaining why I just think Vanderbilt's out.

Because I don't think you can put them in over Miami. I just don't see there's a spot for them. And the thing everybody's got a fear right now is BYU winning the Big 12 championship. Like they do not want that because that does guarantee them a spot. and then it would probably mean Texas Tech takes other spot. When you say that Texas Tech takes the other spot in the loss, I think that you're right. What percentage confidence would you ascribe to that?

72. That's a pretty good number. Not all the way. I was going to say 69, but not nice. Yeah, 6-7, 67. I just like, I feel like it's hard for me to wrap my brain around two big 12 teams. And I don't know if that's just my lack of belief or if that's the way the committee views it. Did you have a hard time wrapping your brain around two ACC teams last year?

It happened. Yeah, not to the same extent. No. Okay. Yeah. So speaking of the ACC, there's another very interesting subplot going on here. Duke beat Wake Forest. So big win for the Blue Devils.

They are very much still alive for the ACC title game. So currently you have Virginia Tech playing Virginia in Charlottesville. Mind you, I believe Virginia, Tech has won 19 of the last 20 meetings between these two teams. Yeah. A Virginia Tech win or a Cal win against SMU, either one will put Duke in the ACC championship game with count them five losses. That's wild.

Five. Wild times. Yeah. And, in fact, one of those things might happen because that's like we're going into the Iron Bowl right now. It's a start in five minutes, starts in seven minutes. Yeah. Andy, there hasn't been a shocking result yet, unless you can.

Now, oh, actually, I don't know about Duke. So we're into the sports source rating score. So this is if, this would be if I'm trying to figure out what the situation is. If, yeah, Virginia Tech wins. They beat Virginia, but SMU beats Cal. Then you get in a situation with the sports source rating score. So that could be somebody else. If Cal beats SMU and you could have a Duke Miami title game if Cal beats SMU and Virginia

Tech beats Virginia. If Cal beats SMU and Virginia beats Virginia Tech, then you have a Virginia Duke Duke above Miami because of a higher conference opponent win percentage. If you have the other way around, I don't know if Miami or Duke gets in because it would be the sports source rating. So Jim Phillips just step in and go, we can't have this? No. We can't have Duke in here. Like, I don't know. Remember when they changed the rules in the middle of COVID? I do remember that.

Yeah, they should do that this year with the ACC if Duke gets in. the commissioner's job is to protect the brand and the image of its conference right oh yjp in here in chat this is true uh they also need an nc state win for conference opponent win percentage that would be nc state against north carolina so if you didn't think bill belichick's tar heels if you think the other game would matter well just so you know andy as we're going down this absurd virginia just scored all right and i believe that was their first possession well that's good for them so virginia win so now i'm doing all the that actually is the easier one if Virginia wins. If Virginia loses, then it becomes

more difficult. Yeah. Pretty bad shit crazy conference. I'm excited to see how this plays out tonight, and we can try to really break that down. Well, like, if I'm James Madison, my only hope is Duke wins the ACC and they are ranked lower than me in the

final, final, final, final, final ranking. Yeah. Andy, we're here right now. Iron Bowl starts in five minutes. Yeah. One thing we haven't talked about at all today. What the hell is Lane Kiffin doing right now? Well, I saw Marty Smith just do a stand-up on ESPN saying a decision is imminent. So does that mean the next few minutes?

Or does that mean he's going to watch the Iron Bowl with the rest of us? Yeah. Okay. Bonus Lane Kiffitt segment. Does it matter if Alabama wins or loses the Iron Bowl for Lane Kiffin? Like, if you're Keith Carter, the Ole Miss AD and you've told him he's not going to coach the playoff, you're not going to let him coach the SEC championship game either, are you? I guess not

I hate it, but I would You know how I stand on it Why you're like Herb Street Why are you caping for the guy He's trying to leave? I just think that it's childish To not keep him on there It's not childish

He's leaving you I know He's spurning you Yeah I mean I guess like He's walking out for another woman Like if you're right I want to go down that analogy He's going to find you in the tunnel

No I'm not saying that But okay If your wife told you Ari I'm leaving you for this other man but uh i can i can hang in the house for the next like month and a half right that's cool that's the same thing we're gonna be in bed together me and him yeah wait no yeah i see him during the day and then i come home yeah well i mean you might come down his underwear like yeah you never know yeah i mean i guess like in that scenario you're sure you're okay with that

yeah uh i guess i would maybe if it if you can make the case that it was better for my daughter i might consider it you know uh maybe you can make the case that it's better for the kids on the team like I don't know I think that if you have if you feel like you have a 10% better chance of winning the national title with him on the sidelines and that might not even be the ratio I don't know how good of a chance you have because I think that having the LSU coach in your building would be a distraction yeah I'm not in the building I don't know all I'm saying here's my premise if it is actually a 10 to 15% boost to your team and that might not be the reality of it but but if it is I would I would sacrifice everybody leaving or whatever would happen in the the next few months from a recruiting standpoint in order to give my team a best chance to win right now. So Marty in the chat asked an interesting question. I'm sure you guys have talked about. We actually haven't, but is Notre Dame screwed or do we think they have a shot? Notre Dame is currently number nine in the rankings. I see no reason for them to get moved. Well, they play a game still. They're going to play Stanford. I don't think they're going to lose

that game, but we'll all be up late tonight watching it. Is Notre Dame screwed? They're doing the screwing. They're fine. Yeah. They're fine. I think the committee, as long as, because as long as you're in top 10, you're going to get an out large bid. So I think Notre Dame's okay there. Yeah, I think the question is, is there any team behind it that can hop over it? And based on the behavior that we saw on Tuesday, it looks like no. Yeah. I mean, somebody's got to hop Alabama first, which I guess if Alabama lost, then they just,

they would already replace them or I don't know. We'll find out. I think if Alabama wins to not, oh, maybe it won't because they're playing Auburn. I don't know. But I'm surprised. The one thing that Notre Dame is talked about in the car, by the way, that I had not thought about. Like, Alabama, we talk about having a bad loss of Florida State.

Auburn would also be a really bad loss. Yeah. And I don't know if the committee gives you a mulligan for haunting. For haunting buildings or rivalry games. But, Andy, the one thing that Notre Dame fans have conceded is that it is bizarre that they're currently ranked ahead of Alabama. Like, you know, they don't want to have the Miami conversation, but the Alabama one is weird. If Alabama wins tonight and clinters a trip to the SEC championship with the wins that they have, I wonder if there's any movement there.

I think the committee members are just like, oh, well, Alabama's going to play in the SEC championship game. It'll just adjust it after that. It's no problem. I don't think that they should ever do that. I hope they don't do that. I think they should rank them based on who they think is the best right now using the criteria that is outlined. I don't know. I mean, it will work out. I hope they don't put the rankings together with that in mind. Guys, the Iron Bowl is kicking off right now.

Let's all watch the Iron Bowl. If Lane Kiffin makes a decision, we'll be back on. We'll pop right back on. We'll talk about it all. We'll be monitoring. He's staying, going, you name it. I can't imagine him staying at this point, but again, it's Lane Kiffin. What do you think he's been doing for the last three hours?

I'm sorry. You know, he's been meeting with game planning for Georgia, apparently, in case they make the SEC title game. We'll be talking about this at some point tonight, I think. So, yeah, stick with us. We will see. Decision reportedly imminent, but I'll believe it's when I see it. Talk to you soon. Thank you.