Andy & Ari On3 - Over/Under on Season Win Totals | Arizona’s Head Coach Jedd Fisch Joins | Andy Staples On3

Episode Date: August 16, 2023

Over/Under on Season Win Totals | Arizona’s Head Coach Jedd Fisch Joins | Andy On3As the season nears closer and closer, it’s time to give a little more season predictions. JD Pickell joins to dis...cuss a certain number of teams in college football to predict the over/under wins total for the season ahead.Today’s interview with Arizona’s Coach Fisch is brought to you by BirdDogs! Don’t ever wear cargo shorts to games again, head on over to www.BirdDogs.com/ANDY and use promo code: ANDY for a free tech hat at checkout.Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube to watch the show instead:https://youtu.be/nfzc_uywnFUFirst, news out of Utah about their QB situation arises. Utah QB Cam Rising has yet to be ruled healthy for the Thursday night game against Florida quickly approaching. Will the Utes have their star QB healthy by the time Week 1 rolls around? (0:00-2:58)Arizona Head Coach Jedd Fisch joins the show to discuss Arizona’s upcoming transition to the Big 12, how he got his start as a student at the University of Florida under the legendary Steve Spurrier, and how he and his roommate, Howie Roseman, became two key figures in the sport of football. That interview is brought to you by BirdDogs! Don’t ever wear cargo shorts to games again, head on over to BirdDogs.com and use promo code: ANDY for a free tech hat at checkout. (2:58-26:48)Next, JD Pickell from the Hard Count joins to discuss teams Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season:Texas (26:49-30:25)Florida State (30:26-33:06)Florida (33:07-36:47)Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan (36:48-40:45)Illinois (40:46-41:59)Minnesota (42:00-43:35)Arizona (43:36-45:23)Clemson (45:24-48:30)Charlotte (48:31-51:10)Western Kentucky (51:11-53:37)Oklahoma State (53:38-57:25)North Carolina (57:26-1:02:18)For today’s Extra Point we go down to Miami where Strength and Conditioning Coach Aaron Feld says every single day is arm day and leg day. He is sponsoring a 45 day challenge to raise money for the Special Olympics, and you can find out where to go to learn more. (1:02:19-1:04:39)

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Andy Staples on three, getting closer and closer to games. That's right. Today, JD, Paquillo and I will take you through a bunch of team win totals, overs, unders. We're going down through a lot of schedules. There was a lot of deep schedule diving done. And it's a reminder that, hey, we are not far from games. Arizona coach Jed Fish getting his team ready for an incredibly tough Pac-12 schedule. You're going to hear from him in just a few minutes. Let's actually start in the Pac-12
Starting point is 00:00:46 heading toward the Big 12 with a program that will be in the Big 12 next year, but is in the Pac-12 this year. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham gave an update on his quarterback situation on Tuesday, and it's not probably what a lot of the Utes fans wanted to hear at this point. But right now, Bryson Barnes, the walk-on, taking most of the reps with the ones. And Barnes started one game last year. But obviously, everyone waiting to find out, will Cam Rising, who tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl, will he be ready to play in that Thursday night season opener against Florida? That's only 16 days away.
Starting point is 00:01:22 Kind of complicating the Utes situation. Brandon Rose, one of their other quarterbacks who was competing with Bryson Barnes for that backup job behind rising, injured last week. One of his relatives put on Instagram that he had to be hospitalized. Kyle Whittingham wouldn't give any specifics out on Tuesday, but that's the situation they're in right now where Bryson Barnes, Kyle Whittingham said if they had to play today would be their starter. Now, when they play in Salt Lake City on August 31st, who's it going to be? Is it going to be Cam Rising? Is it going to be Bryson Barnes? We know who the guy on the other side will be. It'll be Graham Mertz for Florida but those games happening very
Starting point is 00:02:06 very soon we are almost there to the start of college football season this next interview will get you excited for that by the way Jed Fish took over a really tough situation at Arizona he's made a dramatic roster flip and he has what he thinks is going to be his best team there. The only catch is the Pac-12 in the final year of what it's going to be is about as deep as it's been this century. So a big challenge for Jed Fish, but he came and brought some great stories about leaving Post-it notes on Steve Spurrier's car as a Florida student about he and Howie Roseman, who are college roommates, dreaming big. One saying, I'm going to be a head coach.
Starting point is 00:02:50 One saying, I'm going to be an NFL GM. And it came true for both of them. Here's Jed Fish. We are joined now by Arizona head coach Jed Fish, who's been in the news a lot. You were the only Arizona person available to be interviewed for a while there. So you had to field every realignment question, even though you couldn't answer many of them. How does it feel to actually be able to answer that stuff now? I didn't know most of the answers, so it was pretty easy.
Starting point is 00:03:21 I was able just to talk about what i thought was best uh for our program but i didn't necessarily understand all the dynamics inside of it uh but i would say you know for the most part now it's nice to be able to respond properly knowing the situation knowing our future knowing that we'll be in the big 12 uh at the end of season, but really focus on the present, focus on the now, and see could we be the best team in the Pac-12 this year. Well, and that's the thing. All of this change is coming. I'm sure there's a lot of logistical things you need to do
Starting point is 00:03:55 in terms of recruiting areas and everything, but you have a very tough schedule ahead with what might be the deepest Pac-12 in years. Is it easier to focus on that because those teams are so good? Yeah. Yeah. And I think we have a really good team. So where we are as a program and where we are as a team right now, it's exciting to be able to take this team on the road and play some of these good programs, as well as be able to hopefully sell team on the road and play some of these good programs,
Starting point is 00:04:25 as well as be able to hopefully sell out our stadium and win a bunch of ball games at home and see what, see how good we can be. See if we can get to the first bowl game since 2017, see if we can win that first bowl game since 2015. And really that to me is where all the focus needs to go. And I do believe, you know, with our quarterback, with our wide receivers, with our running backs, with our offensive line, we have a chance to score a lot of points every single week. And our defense has continued to really get better.
Starting point is 00:04:54 And we're now at a place where 102 of the 110 players on our squad weren't here two years ago. So this is our program and this is our team and we feel really good about it. And you guys got better very quickly and you had to do a pretty quick roster flip. What were you looking for in terms of guys who were getting out of the transfer portal and in guys you were recruiting out of high school that allowed you to kind of change the culture as quickly as you did? Yeah, well, that first year, you know, I got hired December 28th or so. It was still COVID rules. So there was no on-campus or off-campus recruiting. We had no, we had, I think, two spots available.
Starting point is 00:05:35 So we signed two high school kids, one of which being Jason Taylor's son out of St. Thomas Aquinas. And other than that, we had a couple of spots for transfers. And all of our focus had to go into that next year. And we recruited, which ended up being T-Mac and Big Jonah and Jonah Coleman and Kevin Green and Ephesians Priceox Class with Noah Fafita and Kian Burnett and that whole crew. We focused in on, you know, can we really make a dent in Southern California? Can we be a team that can go out there and go get Speedy Luke out of Bosco
Starting point is 00:06:12 and go get T-Mac out of Servite and go get teams that – players that no one thought Arizona could ever get? And what we were able to do is kind of mix that group and at the same time find find some transfers and uh transfers at some significant positions find jayden delora find uh jacob cowling and when we were able to do that that gave us our best chance in 2022 to really go out there and compete and then this year's class in 23 was about let's go only find teams that – players that have unwitting programs.
Starting point is 00:06:46 Yeah. Only state championship, state runner-ups, or elite programs because we felt as if the more modern-day kids, the more Bosco kids, the more St. Thomas kids, the more players that have just won a lot of games, the best chance we have to start doing that here. We'll be right back with more from Arizona head coach Jed fish. But first I want to tell you a little bit about bird dogs. If you're watching that golf tournament over the weekend,
Starting point is 00:07:13 I'm sure you saw a horrific case of swamp ass on national television. That is when the sweat runs down the crack of your khakis. And it is, it's a tough look for anybody. And it is something that we guys have to deal with, especially us bigger guys. We got to deal with this in August and September. It just happens. Bird dogs can help you with your swamp ass.
Starting point is 00:07:39 Bird dogs is lined. Shorts, pants. They've got an interior liner that feels like it was made for you, and it keeps that wet spot from forming. It keeps you protected from swamp ass. I know what you're saying. Andy, you don't have a job that requires pants. I understand that. But there are occasions where I have to wear pants. And on those occasions, I will be wearing these. The Steven Jobs from Bird Dogs.
Starting point is 00:08:10 Because beautiful, great pants go with everything. Right? Wait, wait, wait, wait. Oh, right there. That's the liner. I neither buy nor wash underwear when I wear these things. And it keeps me safe from swamp ass. You can't beat that. and now if you go to
Starting point is 00:08:26 birddogs.com slash andy use the promo code andy you get a free tech hat that'll keep you from swamp head birddogs.com slash andy promo code andy shorts pants polos they got you covered when it's hot you need bird dogs. And now back to Arizona coach Jed Fish. So when you go recruit a guy like T-Mac, who at the time was the highest ranked recruit who ever committed to the University of Arizona, what do you say? Because people are saying,
Starting point is 00:09:01 well, why would you even consider Arizona? I'm sure he's getting that from other schools at that point. Yeah. He was getting that every day. And not only was he getting it, he committed to a team that went one in 11. So, I mean, we were, uh, the program was one in 23, um, before, uh, when he walked on campus and what I tried to explain to him is past history has nothing to do with what, where we're going and where we're headed.
Starting point is 00:09:27 And you could go somewhere else that you would just be somebody else that went to that school, or you could choose to come to Arizona and you could be the person that chose Arizona. And, um, you know, he, he embraced that and he embraced living up to that reputation. And then when he chose to come here, it was deemed OK. And when he deemed it OK, others chose to come here. And and that's what made the difference.
Starting point is 00:09:57 When people started realizing, you know, you come to Arizona and you can go compete for a championship. You don't have to just sit there and be, you know, somebody else's opponent and somebody else's win. That's when everything changed. And he was the one that really believed in us. And then we got very fortunate that we did some great jobs evaluating big Jonas Evanea. Great job evaluating Jonah Coleman great job evaluating uh some of these other guys and uh our staff really did a great job of bringing those guys in but you mentioned the focus on Southern California does that stay there as you move to the Big 12 do you because you've already made inroads does that that still work for you? Yeah, well, you know, the interesting part is for me in my, you know,
Starting point is 00:10:48 I've coached in college football seven years before I came here at different places. And when I was at the University of Miami, when I was at the University of Michigan, I was at UCLA, my two areas were Southern California and South Florida. And those are the two places. And then nationally quarterbacks, let's call it. And those are the places I would go. So now you're in the big 12 and you've got an opportunity to continue to recruit Southern California, but on top of it, you get a chance to then go ahead and get back to my roots in Florida.
Starting point is 00:11:21 You know, I went to Florida, as you know, I coached in Jacksonville, I coached in Miami. So I've had a lot of experience, different places in the state, recruited a lot of good players from that state. And, you know, when you're a coordinator at Miami and a coordinator at Michigan, you're digging deep in the state of Florida. So now to be able to have UCF on your schedule and then be able to bring what I told our guys, we're going to bring our West Coast team and we're going to bring our west coast team and we're going to go play all these other big 12 teams that enjoy it um we've got a we're going to continue to recruit hawaii we got eight guys in hawaii yeah and that's a huge place for us
Starting point is 00:11:56 and then southern california uh and then the state arizona uh we had um we had a good year last year in the state of arizona uh my gut tells me're going to have the best year they've ever had in Arizona this year when it comes with keeping kids at home. I've done a couple stories about that, the growth in population in Arizona and how it's changed high school football there. It's been a very good quarterback place, but now it seems to be a pretty good everything place. Is that going to get better and better each year? Well, I think what's happening is more and more people are moving to Arizona or retiring to Arizona from
Starting point is 00:12:35 professional sports. So we've got a ton of former athletes that are raising their kids here. It's a wonderful place to live. It's, you know, you're talking about 2% state tax versus let's call it 14 in California. So you're getting a lot of guys moving from California here. It's a place where a lot of people are moving from the cold down here. So you're giving yourself a great opportunity to really build and grow this program and build and grow the in-state high school football. And now you're looking at the in-state high school football. We've got some great coaches.
Starting point is 00:13:12 And these coaches are really embracing the fact that, hey, we'll go play national games. We'll go play teams in Maryland and teams in Florida and teams in Vegas and teams in California. And with that, you're getting more national exposure. And then for us, we're saying, hey, we're going to go try to get the best players out of the state. And we our goal is to get the five or six best players in the state of Arizona. And for the first time ever, have them all say we're staying at home and we're going to U of A. Yeah. And that that's been that's been an issue because, you know, Christian Kirk goes to Texas A&M.
Starting point is 00:13:45 Keely Ringo goes to Georgia. It does seem like because the population has been a little bit transient, people are a little more willing to go elsewhere. But you could give them a reason to stay. And it does seem like that's the way to go. So you are persistent. I know this. And I know this because I know how you got
Starting point is 00:14:05 into coaching. I've heard this story from multiple other people, but I've never actually asked you about it. So you left notes as a Florida student on Steve Spurrier's car every day, like post-it notes. Correct. What did they say? Well, they weren't just like a random note. There could be a postcard. There could be a post-it note. There could have been, I mean, I remember leaving a youth football coach's manual that I wrote when I was a high school senior for I remember leaving plenty of notes just talking about how, you know, back then there were no student assistants. There were no volunteer assistants, as you know. I mean, we were in school. You could be a manager or a trainer, and that was about it. You're a manager, you're a trainer, you're not in the building, right?
Starting point is 00:14:56 Those are your options. And Tim Sane didn't want to hire me as an equipment manager. I'm still upset about that. That was my freshman year. Tim Sane, the most terrifying, the University of Florida's equipment manager. I'm still upset about that. That was my freshman year. Tim's saying the most terrifying, the University of Florida's equipment manager in the late 90s, one of the more terrifying people in the world
Starting point is 00:15:11 if you have a hole in your cleats and you're a walk-on and you have to ask for new cleats. Oh, just imagine being like the first ever student assistant and asking for like a polo shirt. I was like, you were persona non grata. I went to the bookstore.
Starting point is 00:15:24 I told my parents, I'm going to the bookstore to buy clothes that are going to match the coaches on game day. So when I'm on the sideline or in the press box as a student assistant, they don't think I'm some, you know, guy that's just showing up. Because Tim Sane was like, I'll give you one shirt, you know, and maybe I'll give you a pair of shorts. And Nancy was Coach Spurrier's assistant. So she was actually the one that finally allowed me access to coach.
Starting point is 00:15:51 Or coach who just caved in and sent my postcards to Dwayne Dixon and Double D. He always had a project, as you know, Andy, right? Oh, yeah. He had VCR. I always tell, like, young coaches, no one wants to ever listen to me. Now I'm like this old guy, and I'm only 47 now, but I don't feel old. I'm like, guys, what you don't understand is when you're a
Starting point is 00:16:12 young coach, and you're just trying to make your way in, and you're dealing with guys like Jimmy Ray Stevens and Jim Collins and Buddy Teevens was there, and Dwayne Dixon, you've got to find the one coach that you know needs the most amount of help and that's willing to do,
Starting point is 00:16:29 that wants to do a lot of projects. And Double D, he had VCR tapes from here to the ceiling of every NFL game. And what my job was for the first three months was to go through the game and any time they had an isolation camp on a wide receiver, put that on another VCR tape. And so I sat there and I was like, okay, wait, hold on, pause, record over here, get it on this tape, and then label it by player. So then it was like, oh, wait, this is Chris Carter.
Starting point is 00:17:01 Nope, let me put this guy in. And that's how I got started down there. And now you could actually click a button on Huddle or Exos or any of those. You click a button and you get all of that at once. But I can't even imagine. So if Dwayne Dixon was the longtime receivers coach for Steve Spurrier, worked for Frank Solich at Ohio for a long time, when I think of him, all I think of is, is days of the week because he would walk out to practice and didn't matter
Starting point is 00:17:28 what day, Tuesday, best day of the week, best day to get better. And of course, of course the older guys on the team would change that. So James Bates would say Tuesday, best day of the week,
Starting point is 00:17:43 great day to eat butter. So that's, that's what Dwayne Dixon would put up with that. Some of those other people, gentlemen, you mentioned, would not put up with stuff like that. But that's the thing. I can't even imagine some of the grunt work that had to be done in the 90s because they didn't have all these people. It was so different i mean we put
Starting point is 00:18:06 we had the very first the very first time i went to coach burner and i said hey i took the script for the blitz period and i typed it up for you and you would have thought that it was like i went i flew to seattle met with bill gates you know got, got full access to Microsoft and then decided to work some deal out that I was able to get a tight script of 24 plays. You know, it was amazing where you could separate yourself early in the profession in the nineties. Cause if you knew a few things that other people didn't, you could come across like so much better than you really were. You know, it was that weird little deal of like, hey, you know what? I could draw these blitz cards up on the computer and they'll look prettier.
Starting point is 00:18:51 Oh, that seems like an impossible thing to do. You know, no, there's actually a program called Playmaker and like it actually happens. But those guys, you know, and you know them all, you played for them. They were, they did it their way, right? They did it coach's way and coach was handwritten drawings and everything was old school, stapled. Maybe you would get a playbook. Maybe most of the time you wouldn't. And if you could add some new stuff, I remember Buddy Teevens and I created the first ever Florida Gator passing playbook on the computer, not on the,
Starting point is 00:19:27 and that took us like a year to do it. Coach looked at it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This looks nice. Yeah. Okay. You know, but what it did was it just kept you, it kept you employed number one. And number two, when you're doing that stuff,
Starting point is 00:19:40 you're learning a lot more than if you just click it on a computer now and saying, Hey, give me this or give me that. Or, you know, this lot more than if you just click it on a computer now and saying, hey, give me this or give me that, or this has been drawn, give me this. Doing the leg work makes you a better coach. And I'll never not think that. So you've had an unusual path in your career because usually somebody goes, is in college and moves to the NFL or comes from the NFL and then moves up the ranks in college, but you've gone back and forth between the worlds. What have you taken from those? Cause you were in the NFL, then you're working for, you know, working with Jim Harbaugh.
Starting point is 00:20:15 You worked with Al Golden before that in Miami, and then you're back in the NFL. How did, how did that help mold you into what you are now? Yeah. You know, like I would say I always looked at it as this. Anytime I interviewed for a job or met with someone about a job, they would ask that same question. They'd be like, you know, are you going to go back?
Starting point is 00:20:38 I mean, because I went nine years just in the NFL. Then I was an offensive coordinator in college. Then I left to go back to the NFL. Then I left to go be an offensive coordinator in college. Then I left to go be an offensive coordinator in college and I left to go back to the NFL then I left to go be an offensive coordinator in college then I left to go be an offensive coordinator in the NFL and back and forth a few different times and they would say well why are you doing this and I said I don't know it's still 11 on 11 right I mean I don't know it seems like a better job than the one I have where it seems like a job that I want to have right now to help me become a better coach in the long run. And I always looked at it as what's the best way that I could impact the team at a moment, in the moment.
Starting point is 00:21:15 I love coaching offensive football. You know, I've called plays for 12 out of the last 14 years or whatever it might be now. And it's always been very important to me. And it hasn't really mattered where it's been. It's a matter of what's the right fit at the right time. But I do think that where I become very fortunate is the amount of people I've worked for along the way. And that with our team this past spring, I'm able to have Bill Belichick out of practice for a day and a half. I'm able to have Sean McVay out of practice, Zach Taylor out at our clinic, Pete Carroll out of practice.
Starting point is 00:21:50 And now our players in college are able to sit down and Jaden Delora is able to have a one-hour conversation with Bill Belichick and let Jaden learn about what it really means to be a pro, not just what his coach tells him. And those are the things that are separators. Jaden learn about what it really means to be a pro, not just what his coach tells him. And those are the things that are separators. And I imagine when you're recruiting someone, when you're in that conversation, you can say, hey, I've called NFL offenses before. I know exactly what I'm looking for in an NFL quarterback, what NFL tools look like, what an NFL edge rusher looks like because I've had to scheme against them. I imagine that goes a long way when you're talking to the high school
Starting point is 00:22:26 guys. Yeah. It's, it's allowed us to, to do what we've done on the recruiting trail. I believe it's one of the biggest parts of recruiting for us is that we, we talk about not just our experiences in the NFL, but I always say this, they could tell you what it takes to get to the NFL, but they don't know what it takes to pick you. They haven't been in the draft room.
Starting point is 00:22:51 They don't know the conversations that are going to be had. They don't really know what's actually being looked at and being talked about. And, you know, when I tell our players, if you don't think the way you treat the third trainer is going to make a difference on your draft status, you just don't get it. And I think a lot of times if a coach has never been in the league and they said that, I don't know, and then you get Mike Tannenbaum or you get Steve Kime or Howie Roseman to get on another Florida Gator to get on a Zoom call or an in-person meeting and tell the guys, hey, it's what you do when you think that person can't help you. That's going to be the difference maker. All of a sudden, you've got credibility from people in the league or currently in the
Starting point is 00:23:40 league. You mentioned Howie Roseman, who was your classmate at UF, your fraternity brother at UF. Did you guys ever sit around and imagine anything like this? Did you ever think, Howie Roseman is the GM of the Philadelphia Eagles now? We imagined it. We imagined it. I don't know if we thought it was coming to reality.
Starting point is 00:24:03 We lived together in Oxford Manor. So we were fraternity brothers in TEP. We were at – Shout out Archer Road, baby. And then right off of Archer Road, we were in Oxford Manor, and we were roommates. And I remember that first spring we were living together, it was the NFL draft.
Starting point is 00:24:23 And we never really, like really talked about our future plans. We were like, you know, you're going through your freshman year in college, your sophomore year in college at that time. It's not like you're really talking about when you're hanging out with your college roommate. You're not saying, hey, what are you thinking about doing in X amount of years? So he walks down with a clipboard and two folders on the day of the draft. And I'm like in boxer shorts and a t-shirt hanging on the couch. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:47 Being like, Hey, it's NFL draft day. This should be fun. Is this a Courtney Brown, Courtney Brown, LeVar Arrington draft? Or this was,
Starting point is 00:24:55 I'll tell you, it was the Kyle. It was whenever the jets took Kyle Brady. And I thought I lost my television for the, for the rest of the year. He, he comes down there and if he could have put on a suit, I think he would have.
Starting point is 00:25:08 But he walks down there, and he's ready for the draft. And I said, what are you doing? He said, hey, it's drafting. It's a big day. And this guy was dialed in on every pick, who we're taking, who the Jets were taking, what they should have done. And when they took another tight end, that was the second year in a row they took tight end, I think think I mean I I almost lost and uh I said what are you doing he said I'm
Starting point is 00:25:30 gonna be an NFL GM I said yeah right he goes why what are you gonna be I go I'm gonna be a college or NFL head coach and he's like okay big guy and you know lo and behold we wind up coaching against each other when I was the offensive coordinator at Jags, he was the GM of the Eagles. When I was at the Rams as the assistant offensive coordinator, we're playing against each other on Monday Night Football. And then, of course, I became the head coach here, and he's come down and visited, and I visited him. So it's been a pretty amazing run.
Starting point is 00:25:59 I was going to say, now you've got to get him to take one of your guys in the first round. I was going to say first overall, but given their level of talent they're not picking first so yeah but we got some players that they can take we gotta we gotta left tackle who i think is on the uh he's certainly on everybody's first round board and jordan morgan to have him come back after coming off an acl and jacob cowling uh one of the top receivers, I think in the country. And both of those guys are nice early picks for him. And I continue to remind him of that. Well,
Starting point is 00:26:29 I cannot wait to see it. Jed, thank you so much. And good luck with this brutal PAC 12 schedule the last year in the PAC 12. Yeah. Thanks, Andy.
Starting point is 00:26:40 I appreciate you having me on. When we come back, JD Piquel joins, and we're going to go deep into the season win totals. Overs, unders, we're looking, diving into the schedules, trying to figure out which of these numbers make sense, which don't. Where's that tough stretch that may turn a season or may make a season fall apart.
Starting point is 00:27:07 There's a lot out there. We got a lot of teams to cover. We'll be right back with JD. It's time to talk actual football games in a theoretical sense, of course. JD Piquel from On3 joins. We're talking totals, overs, unders. J.D., there's polls out. We're just guessing right now, but man, is it fun. And it's so fun because we got real like 11-11 football being played behind closed doors right now. Like the guys that are actually going to be playing on Saturday,
Starting point is 00:27:39 they're scrimmaging, which feels like such a tease, but we're so, so close. I'm excited to get into this with you, Andy. It's going to be a lot of fun because I saw Steve Sarkeesian the other day talking about preseason polls and saying, well, I don't know how anybody guesses without seeing practice. I'm like, well, you guys keep practice locked up, so we can't see it, so we have to guess. But since he's the one who brought it up,
Starting point is 00:28:01 I think we should start with Texas on these numbers because a lot of these feel really tough. And Texas, it feels like Vegas has done its homework on this one. Texas is a 9.5. So, basically, you can lose to Alabama and somebody else and hit. And if you hit, you're playing for the big 12 title yeah and i mean when you look at it on paper like they shouldn't lose to anybody else when you look at just strictly from a roster to roster standpoint and i guess that's why they play the games and
Starting point is 00:28:37 why we tune in every single fall saturday but still at this point in the year like you said with steve sarkisian keeping practice locked up, help me help you, Coach Sark. This is kind of where we have to go right now is roster to roster. So I'm actually, I don't know where you're going on this, Andy. I'm going over. I think if they drop that one to Bama, so be it.
Starting point is 00:28:55 You can drop another one. Texas should not drop more than two games based on who they have at quarterback, based on who they have at wide receiver. They've built two a year like this. So I'm going over nine and a half for Texas, I think if they go over they're probably 11 and one they probably wind up winning the big the big 12 title I'm going with recent history though and I'm going under because I'm going with there possibly being a Texas Tech game or an Oklahoma State game from last year or a Kansas game from the year before in there.
Starting point is 00:29:27 And I need to see them prove they can win those games. Those are the ones that bug me. I know they're going to get up for Alabama. I think Alabama's going to be pretty good. So I'm excited for that game. The Oklahoma game, Texas should be favored in that game too. But we'll see with Oklahoma. They're a bit of a mystery team as well.
Starting point is 00:29:51 But I'm going to go under on that. Nine and three probably still gets you in to the Big 12 championship game if you beat Oklahoma, if you lose to Alabama, and if you lost a couple more. But it's not going to be probably the season they want if that happens but that is a that's such a tricky number and they go to another nine and a half for you JD because this one feels a little less tricky to me or feel maybe it feels like there's more margin for error in it and it's Florida state nine and a half. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:26 I mean, it's interesting because they very well could lose that very first game against LSU on Sunday in Orlando. And that's the one that you circle. And the fascinating thing with them is they have ACC title aspirations in college football, playoff aspirations. And if they drop that game against LSU, then they go to Clemson week four,
Starting point is 00:30:43 like that game week four could be for their college football playoff life. Like if they drop two in the first month of the season, like all that we've talked about where Florida State this past offseason is kind of up in smoke. But I think we're on the same page here, and I say that before you give your answer, so we'll see where this goes. I do think the margin for Florida State, again, going back to roster, they bring back the number one returning production in the entire country,
Starting point is 00:31:07 and that's not even accounting for Keon Coleman and Jaheim Bell and Fentrell Cypress. So I really like the way they're built, and I don't think they're going to be a team that gets caught with the deer in the headlight syndrome. Sometimes you see these numbers and it's a talented roster, but a lot of it's unproven. I think Florida State over 9.5 is the way I'm going on this one.
Starting point is 00:31:24 So they don't have to beat Clemson in September because remember the ACC ditches divisions, so they don't have to win the division this year. They just have to be the top two. So you could lose to LSU, lose to Clemson, and still hit the over. Now, that doesn't leave you any room for error, but I suspect they're going to split the LSU and the Clemson first time around which would give them a place where they can have a hiccup there and still hit the over so I am going to take the over for Florida State
Starting point is 00:31:57 double digit wins I I realize it and this is double digit regular season wins that means they're in charlotte i think that feels perfectly reasonable for this team uh we heard mike norvell on the show this week jd and he very confident and you think about all that this veteran group has been through and then they've added pieces like kian coleman like jaheim bell to it i just, yeah, it feels like there's a little more margin for error for them. But, you know, I feel, almost feel a little bad because I did say with Texas, you know, you've got to win those games and prove you can win.
Starting point is 00:32:33 I'm not sure Florida State's proven that yet. You know, they had that losing streak last year. That NC State loss is a prime example of a game they absolutely should have won and didn't. So, you know, i feel like i'm being maybe more optimistic about seminoles than i am about the longhorns but but here we are um where do you where do you think we should go next jay i'm gonna let you spin the wheel give me you can give me a team give me a conference who you feel like talking about you know since you're
Starting point is 00:33:00 doing this show from gainesville let's take a look at what's going on with Billy Napier and company. Okay. Five and a half for the Florida Gators. I remember when these lines came out. It was doomsday in Gainesville. People are like, what? Really? Like six wins hits the over? Oh, my God.
Starting point is 00:33:22 Because for them, anything below eight wins is considered an abject failure any season doesn't matter what the expectations are and so that that sent everybody into the tank but given what billy napier inherited given that they lost the number four pick in the draft at quarterback five and a half i don't know if it's reasonable. I still feel like it's a little low, but I think there's just from talking to people around that program. I think there may be some value in the over here because you know, you look at it.
Starting point is 00:33:58 The schedule is hard, but if they can, here's, here's where I think they're okay. If they can split Utah and Tennessee, and I was the same way on this team last year, thinking they would split Utah and Kentucky, which were the back-to-back games to open.
Starting point is 00:34:14 It's not back-to-back, but it's week one, week three. If they can split Utah and Tennessee, I think they've got a chance of hitting the over here. We don't know Kentucky, South Carolina, who ends up being – Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida are kind of in a group right now, and we don't know who's going to end up being better. Kentucky, I think, is going to be a better team than we were last year, but they did beat Florida last year.
Starting point is 00:34:42 So I just look at the schedule. I think Florida can get to six wins you're not asking much it's still going to be disappointing to the fans that they're six and six but you're over it's going to cash my difficult part of this whole thing is the way that I feel about Florida versus looking at it like game by game and game by game is only helpful until like September right like saying what this team is going to be in November is anybody's guess. I really like the fact that I think the defense is going to have much better depth. Yeah. Game by game. I look at this and go under, but I think like just the overall feel when it comes to Florida, they're
Starting point is 00:35:21 going to run the football. Well, they're going to have a quarterback who at the very least is experienced and you would hope is making good decisions for them even if they don't split Tennessee and Utah I think six just feels like the right number I have a hard time believing they don't get to that six win mark but again I went game by game we did it on our TikTok for better for worse and I went going five and seven on Florida so I'm kind of riding the fence here my heart heart is saying six for Florida. So I actually think they wind up winning seven. But looking at the schedule, you look at the back end of the schedule, they have a stretch after the Georgia game of Arkansas at LSU at Missouri.
Starting point is 00:36:01 We're probably all chalking at LSU up as a loss at this point. Now, we'll see what happens when you get to November. But Arkansas and Missouri feel like the coin flips, the winnable ones, the black uniforms coming out for the Arkansas game. We learned on Tuesday, uh, they, they, interestingly, they made it salute to the troops day. So if you say anything critical of the black uniforms, you're criticizing the troops. So, uh, that Florida, Florida trying to criticism proof their their alternate unis there but i i just that one those two games i think may be the swing ones that decide whether they're hitting over the under here what a chess move by the good people in gainesville saying black unis support the troops there there's no one of the other it's either both or none of them
Starting point is 00:36:43 so yeah how dare you criticize all right let us let us move to the big 10 jd because you mentioned you were pretty passionate about one particular total that you saw in big 10 land and that is penn state nine and a half i just have such a difficult time believing that they're going to drop ohio state michigan and then another one and i understand that drew aller is going to be fresh out the box. He'll be new. I mean, they don't play at Ohio State until week eight. So, I mean, you have that going for you if you're rooting for the over here.
Starting point is 00:37:14 I don't see a situation where the experience they have on defense, the experience they have on the offensive line, even if it isn't as proven, just guys that have been within that team for a while. There's so much about this team that I like outside of Drew Allard and then you add Drew Allard to it and you add what he's going to be in October and November like we've seen what they were with Sean Clifford and I'm not here to dunk on Sean Clifford I think he's phenomenal it's a phenomenal Green Bay Packer Sean Clifford yeah absolutely a big big fan of what he did at Penn State he should be commended
Starting point is 00:37:42 for going the Stetson Bennett route and actually I think he did graduate I believe what he did at Penn State. He should be commended for going the Stetson-Bennett route. And actually, I think he did graduate, I believe, but he did spend quite a bit of years in state college. Yeah. But I mean, just from a pure ability standpoint, you upgrade at quarterback. That can only stay down for so long. So I like Penn State, and I love the over. You're telling me I can drop Ohio State and Michigan and still hit?
Starting point is 00:38:01 I'm taking over on this, Andy. That's one thing I like about that, too. Now, here's something that I want to combo this with. I don't know if you should be parlaying win totals. It's August. Since we're talking Penn State, how we feel about Penn State may say something about how we feel about Michigan and Ohio State. So if we take a Penn State over, Michigan and Ohio State are both 10.5.
Starting point is 00:38:29 Obviously, one of them will lose to the other. So you should probably, whoever you think now is going to win the Michigan-Ohio State game, you take their over. You're feeling pretty good about that. So I'll say Michigan over, Penn State over. But does that mean I'm going to take Ohio state under 10 and a half? That's a tough one. That'd be quite a parlay right there. That would probably cash out at a, at a pretty penny. I like Michigan over. I mean, not to just
Starting point is 00:38:57 be in lockstep here with you, Andy, I'm going to make for a boring segment here, but I mean, I root for root, but I mean, if I were rooting for my parlay i'm taking michigan on the over 11 and a half or yeah 11 and a half there i mean i really think that they're well they're 10 and taking michigan 10 and a half heck andy i take them in 11 half too to be honest with you i think michigan's gonna run the table i think they're i think they're the best one of the best teams in the country so i think they may lose to penn state but interesting okay now here's here's a here's a thought they all three could hit the over if you have a 2008 Big 12 South scenario. So let me spin this one for you. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:32 Michigan beats Ohio State at the end of the season, but had gone to state college and lost, and Penn State goes to Columbus and loses. There's a chance. And then Penn State at that point would have room for error for another loss there i don't honestly it's hard to find because if they had to go to iowa city instead of iowa coming to them i'd feel a little more nervous about it i'm still slightly nervous about yolo neil brown in the first game i'm telling you west virginia
Starting point is 00:40:03 is gonna run every trick play that ever existed in that game. Empty the clip, baby. Empty the clip. Nothing more dangerous than a man with nothing to lose. Exactly. So that's why there is a possibility. There's a world where they all go over, and there's a world where they all end up with one Big Ten loss,
Starting point is 00:40:23 which would be something be something and Penn State plays Illinois early in the year like that's going to be Drew Aller's real test you want to go and play against that Illinois defense I know it's a new DC but still I mean what they did a season ago beelum a ball like I don't know there's definitely a way where they fall under but I like the over shades of that nine overtime game actually funny you mentioned illinois because illinois is one that i was thinking of too when i saw their total six and a half that feels low they got the law firm back on d you know that it'd be one thing if their schedule were just brutal if you if if they had a really rough non-conference schedule and now they do they do play Kansas at Kansas so there's there's a an explosive offense they'll have to deal with they've got to play Toledo but I don't I'm not as worried about
Starting point is 00:41:13 them because they're not dealing with the monsters of the east with the exception of Penn State they don't have Michigan and they don't have Ohio State on this schedule. So I think there's a really good chance. The Illini go over six and a half, six and a half, maybe very low for them. Andy, there's just some schools and you could attest to this, that just feel the same, regardless of who's on the roster year in and year out. Like Kansas state is one of those schools.
Starting point is 00:41:40 I was kind of one of those schools to me with Brett Bielema, whoever he's coaching, like that's one of those schools, know they're gonna run the football you know they're gonna play tough defense and that usually is good to get you at least to seven wins no no i'm 100 on board here i'm taking over six and a half for illinois as well i want to stay in the in the big 10 west because well i was i think i was more shocked by this next thing I'm going to tell you than the Illinois 6.5. Minnesota 7.5. Let me give you – Okay, so Minnesota starts with Nebraska, Matt Rule's first game, right out of the box.
Starting point is 00:42:16 Even if they win that one, they're not out of the woods because they get out of the, Michigan and Ohio State. Their non-conference includes a game at North Carolina with Drake May. They bring in Louisiana Lafayette, which has been one of the best Sunbelt teams over the past few years. This is brutal. This is a brutal schedule. P.J. Fleck is going to have to coach his ass off to win the over.
Starting point is 00:42:46 New running back, new quarterback. Yep. And you have that slate. Yeah. I mean, I have the exact same notes down. I have Wisconsin, Ohio state, Michigan. Those three are all going to be bears. And then like you said, the two non-conference or the non-conference
Starting point is 00:42:58 against North Carolina, then you go to Iowa. Like I would love Iowa so much more if it was at Minnesota, but you got to go to Kinnick stadium. Like I, I just, I hate the way it's built and I hate the way that Minnesota is built going into the season. So I'm going under seven and a half there. Yeah. It's just tough. It's not, it's not a knock against them. It's just, sometimes you have to look at schedule circumstance, all that other stuff because it just, it matters. And you know,
Starting point is 00:43:24 that, that is a brutal schedule. Let me throw another one at you. And so earlier in the show, we heard from Arizona coach Jed Fish. And he feels like it's his best team in Arizona. I tend to agree with him. The total is only four and a half. But the schedule is very hard. You know, non-conference includes a trip to
Starting point is 00:43:46 Starkville to play Mississippi State they get Washington they get USC they get Oregon State that's all in the same month by the way they've got to play Utah so can can the Wildcats find the wins because that's another one like Minnesota where it's, it's just tough on the schedule to find the wins. I love that they get Colorado at the end of the year. I think Colorado is win five for them. And that's not saying anything about Colorado. It's just a brand new roster. I think they'll kind of take their lumps early in the schedule.
Starting point is 00:44:20 And then by the end of the year, we'll kind of see what they have under the hood. Also with something like this, like I love Jayden Delora. Like I think he's a stud. I think there's going to be some games that they maybe shouldn't win, but they end up finding a way in the closing minutes
Starting point is 00:44:33 to get it done with some Delora magic. So I like Arizona. I think five is probably where I sit, but it will be a November five. Like it's not going to be, we're cruising to five, you know, starting the last month of the season. It's like find a way at the end of the cruising to 5 starting the last month of the season. It's like, find
Starting point is 00:44:46 a way at the end of the year to get your fifth win and hit the over. You've probably got to beat Colorado and then win that Territorial Cup game against Arizona State at the end to hit the over, but the swing game may be Jaden Delora's return trip to Pullman where he used to play. That's October
Starting point is 00:45:01 14th. They're at Washington State. Very tough place to play. But if you can steal a win out of there, I think that's the path to five for Arizona. So that one feels pretty good. Let's go back across the country, J.D. Let's go back to the ACC. We talked Florida State already.
Starting point is 00:45:21 But there's another ACC team at 9.5. Clemson's at 9.5. And this feels like Vegas saying half Clemson's at nine and a half. And this feels like Vegas saying the Clemson dynasty. Well, it's not dynasty anymore, but the Clemson rain may be over because that, that leaves a lot of room for error. I mean, that's saying they can lose to Florida state and then what? Maybe to South Carolina and still hit the over Notre Dame
Starting point is 00:45:48 yep so where do you fall on Clemson well first Vegas feels like they're kind of running like the Oprah Winfrey show you just look under your seat you get a nine and a half you get a nine and a half you get a nine and a half maybe I'm a sucker maybe I'm just going with the crowd here I like the overall on Clemson and I think they're kind of maybe daring you to take that a little bit if you're the public saying hey dangling's fronting you look they got a new quarterback new OC I mean I think they're gonna have one of the best events in the country and I am of the opinion that this offense under Garrett Riley is going to be substantially more explosive with how they're going to scheme guys open I think they've got some receivers Adam Randall being one of them who was hurt previously
Starting point is 00:46:28 is going to be on the field for them this year. I think they'll be much more dynamic. I think Clemson kind of stays Clemson, to be honest with you, this coming season. I think that they could drop that game to Florida State. I think the Notre Dame game is interesting. I don't see them losing to South Carolina again this year. I don't see that happening with a more dynamic offense. I like the over nine and a half here. I don't think Dabo and them are going quietly into that good night unfortunately.
Starting point is 00:46:53 When I saw this originally, I was like, this is definitely an over. There is no question. The more I look at the schedule, the more I'm wondering are they trying to sucker you into this thing let me let me give you this schedule so they play wake which is always a tough game and dabble will tell you that wakes one of the best coach teams they play but they get them at home october 7th they then
Starting point is 00:47:14 get an open date then it's at miami at nc state notre dame comes to clemson all in in three weeks in a row october 21st october October 28th November 4th that is a tough stretch right there so if you've already dropped the game to Florida State at that point that that's where things get a little interesting so they have margin for arrow go ahead and I was going to say you know where things could really get off the rails if you're a Clemson fan is that first game of the season on a Monday you got to go to Duke and played Riley Leonard. And that defense that was solid last year, they lose a lot, but I mean, they bring back the majority of that offense that scored like 30 a game.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Like, that's not going to be fun. It's not going to be a fun way to start the year. For three quarters of that Clemson-Georgia Tech game on the Monday night last year, we were like, oh boy. I mean, that's where everybody was just going, uh-oh, with this program. And now they still end up winning the ACC, but for them, it's not what they want it to be.
Starting point is 00:48:06 This they're one of the more intriguing teams in the country because defensively they should be very good. That D line is nasty, but we'll see what Garrett Riley does with the offense. Cade Klubnick taken over because that, that will determine a lot. Let's let's stay geographically close to Clemson, but let's,
Starting point is 00:48:22 let's move to the American and And we'll do a couple group of fives here. One in the American, one in Conference USA. This is one where we follow all the conference realignment. We write about it, talk about it when it happens, but it doesn't hit you in the face until you're looking down somebody's schedule with a win total charlotte three and a half they're in the american now and you look at that schedule now why charlotte because it gives me an excuse to play this clip of biff pogey on this show good question um i'm gonna keep my sugar to it no no problem first of all biff Poggi says they're going to shock the world. And I realized that's, that's part of how he operates. He he's, he's over promising
Starting point is 00:49:11 and he's trying to get his team pumped up. I get that. But until you see these new conference schedule, like UTSA in the American or UAB in the American or Charlotte in the American, you don't realize how tough this gets. So they've got to play. First of all, they're at Florida as one of their non-conference games, South Carolina State, Maryland, Georgia State, their other non-conference. But then it's SMU, Navy, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa, Memphis, Rice, USF. I think they can actually hit the over here. I think it's possible, but it is going to be hard. This is a big jump up in competition,
Starting point is 00:49:56 even if it is an entirely new roster and Biff Poggi says it's better than the previous roster. Whenever I saw him at AAC Media Days, just dropped the mic on that entire media crowd. And then I see that clip of him with a cigar deep V-neck cut off. I'm like, I'm not betting against that guy. How can you not believe?
Starting point is 00:50:16 There's nothing you could hang over my head to say, bet against Biff Poggi, won't do it, can't do it. Give me the over. This feels like the lock of this whole thing, Andy. Yeah, I'm taking the over, even though I just said this schedule's pretty hard for them. But no, if they can beat South Carolina State, if they can beat Georgia State, which is not a given,
Starting point is 00:50:35 then you've got to steal two wins in the American. FAU, also new in the American, new coach in Tom Herman. So maybe that. Rice, new in the American. We'll see, you. So maybe that. Rice, new in the American. We'll see Mike Bloomgren, JT Daniels on school number four. But maybe you can steal two wins in the American, and you're over at that point. Got to circle the wagons.
Starting point is 00:50:59 Got to find a way. I feel like we're being very optimistic. I haven't had many unders, and I'm not about to have another one right here. Cause I sent you this one and you're like, man, I need to read up on this. And I was like,
Starting point is 00:51:10 just look at the schedule and you'll, you'll understand Western Kentucky. Eight and a half Austin Reed returns after a great season. He remember he transferred from division two, West Florida to replace Bailey Zappi at Western Kentucky. Had a great season for Tyson Helton and then entered the portal. The assumption was he'd end up where the Brahms ended up. That didn't happen.
Starting point is 00:51:35 He stays at Western Kentucky. So this is, again, Western Kentucky did not change conferences. Remember, they flirted with the idea of going to the Sun Belt, but they stayed in Conference USA. The thing is, a lot of Conference USA has left. So that leaves a very different looking lineup. So they got USF in that first game. That's obviously a non-conference game.
Starting point is 00:52:02 But USF's coming to them, basically the Willie Taggart Bowl. And I just, I think they can win that one. And then Houston Christian, but they got to go to Ohio State. They're not going to win that one. They got to go to Troy. They might not win that one either. That's the, you know, defending Sunbelt champs. But Conference USA after that, you're talking about Middle Tennessee,
Starting point is 00:52:26 who you stayed in the conference with. Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State. Liberty with Jamie Chadwell might be tough. UTEP, New Mexico State, Sam Houston, FIU. That's your schedule. They're winning nine games. It's one of those things that you don't want to overthink a little bit. I don't want to make it a little bit and i don't want to
Starting point is 00:52:45 make it too simplistic but i mean austin reed best player in conference usa and i don't know that there's a huge debate about that maybe his receiver is giving him for his money with all the records he's probably going to set this coming year i had a coach tell me one time that it was it was i guess this time last year and it was jared daggy who was supposed to be the star at western kentucky yep and austin reed going back and forth and i'm portal It was, I guess, this time last year. And it was Jarrett Daigie who was supposed to be the starter at Western Kentucky. Yep. And Austin Reed going back and forth. Jarrett Daigie hit the portal. Yeah, he's like, we've got a quarterback battle going on right now.
Starting point is 00:53:12 We've got Jarrett Daigie. I was like, yeah, I mean, that's going to be awesome. He's probably going to do great things for y'all coming from West Virginia. And he's like, we've got this kid that transferred from D2. Kind of pausing. He's like, he's the next Brett Favre. So I don't know if Austin Reed's the next Brett Favre, but he's playing like it from a season ago.
Starting point is 00:53:27 And I think that Austin Reed and Western Kentucky over eight and a half is where my money is going. Yeah, I did say I was being relentlessly positive. I think I'm going to flip it now. Let's go to Stillwater. Where the transfer portal giveth and the transfer portal taketh away. And it feels like the transfer portal have taketh more the transfer portal taketh away, and it feels like the transfer portal taketh more away
Starting point is 00:53:46 from the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This feels like Mike Gundy's time to say, look, I can adjust to this era of college football, or I can't. And so their total is 6.5. In most years, J.D., I would be like, this is no question and over because Mike Gundy always does more with less, always finds a way. But now I kind of wonder with the losses they had and they're like, you know, we talked to Sonny Dykes the other day, JP Richardson, he's going to be catching passes for the Horned Frogs. He's not gonna be catching passes for the Cowboys.
Starting point is 00:54:23 And, you know, they, they bring in And they bring in a bunch of transfers too, but it felt like a net loss in that department. And the Big 12 is tough. No Texas on the schedule for them, although they did beat Texas last year, but they do have to play Kansas State. They do get Oklahoma. They're at UCF.
Starting point is 00:54:42 They're going to tour the newbies. They get Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and BYU. uh they go they're at ucf they're gonna they're gonna tour the newbies they get they get cincinnati ucf houston and byu so what do we think about the cowboys can can they ride the four games against the new big 12 teams to seven plus wins you said exactly what i was thinking andy said exactly what i was thinking but i'm kind of on the other side of the coin. You said what I was thinking when it came to the newbies and getting some wins there. I think that there is a level of acclimation that a lot of these schools are going to undergo, maybe a little bit more than we're thinking they might right now. And like you said at the top of that thing, Mike Gundy, historically done more with
Starting point is 00:55:22 less every single year. They're one of those teams, and they've kind of adapted from year to year, but they kind of feel like they're always going to be right in the thick of it in the Big 12. This is one of those that you sit here and pick it right now in August and someone is like, justify that. I'm like, I don't know, but have you seen Mike Gundy? I think he's since kind of maybe tapered down the mold a little bit, but I'm going to Oklahoma State actually to find a way to get to seven and
Starting point is 00:55:46 get the over here. Well, and I will tell you if you're looking for a way it's UCF, Houston, BYU at the end of the season, they're there at UCF and at Houston, they get BYU and still water. But those teams,
Starting point is 00:56:01 you mentioned an acclimation period, their depth might not be where it needs to be. And by the end of the season, they might be a little bit easier to beat than they would be if you had to play them in September. Like I keep saying that Kansas State gets UCF in Manhattan in September in UCF's first Big 12 game. That's the last situation I'd want to play UCF in because they're going to be so excited and they're going to have
Starting point is 00:56:28 a mostly healthy roster at that point. But we'll see what happens when you get to November. But I still, it's hard for me, it's hard for me to see it because, you know, they're going to go to Tempe. They're going to go to Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham's going to want to try to make a point there in his first big non-conference game. South Alabama comes to Stillwater. Folks, Kane Womack's team is good. That is not a gimme game right there. And then you got to go to Ames where Lord knows what will be left of Iowa State's team by the time the gambling investigation is done. But I do suspect they might be, I don't know, they might be not as unlucky as last season. Like that was a very unlucky team last year. So we'll see. I think it's probably under for Oklahoma State, but this will be a fascinating test for Mike Gundy and what
Starting point is 00:57:21 he could do. Another one you were passionate about before we get out of here, North Carolina eight and a half. Where are you on that one? Well, I mean, you got Drake May, so that's extremely exciting. And you got Mack Brown, who is historically, I mean, one of the best coaches in college football. And I love Drake May. I mean, I'll say it again. I think he's one of the best players in college football. I think pretty much everyone thinks he's one of the best players in college football. I think pretty much everyone thinks he's one of the best players in college football. The unfortunate reality for North Carolina is Drake May
Starting point is 00:57:50 isn't playing defense. I think they might be better than they were last year defensively. I think they'll be a little bit more improved, but last year I think they had six wins by one score. I understand the hype around North Carolina and I'm not even here to be
Starting point is 00:58:05 necessarily saying that North Carolina is not going to be a good team but that number feels a little bit rich to me Andy so I think Drizzy Drake may will ball but I don't think that they're going to hit the over on that number well and and if you watch the Appalachian State game last year like you understand the ride that North Carolina fans went on. The defense got better toward the end of the season, but then the offense felt like it regressed a little bit. And the one guy who's not there that they've got to prove they can replace is Josh Downs. That was Drake Mays' favorite target.
Starting point is 00:58:37 That was a dynamic receiver who could get you out of some trouble at times. And so they open with South Carolina in Charlotte. That's the game day game. That's going to be tough. You look at what they drew within the SEC. They've got Clemson. They don't have to play Florida State, but they've got to play NC State at the end of the season as usual.
Starting point is 00:59:01 NC State's going to have a salty defense. We'll see offensively where they wind up that you know new offensive coordinator robert and i but the the closing stretch of clemson nc state is going to be tough and duke under mike elko has proven to be pretty interesting now it's one year but we'll see and then they go to ge Tech. Georgia Tech beat them last year. Like, you can say, oh, that's an easy win. Georgia Tech is not that great. Georgia Tech beat them last year. So that is one I think under eight and a half doesn't feel that crazy to me
Starting point is 00:59:37 because unless you can show me how they dramatically improved on defense, and maybe they will. Maybe they'll show us that in the South Carolina game against Spencer Rattler but until I see that I can't be confident and the guy who was supposed to replace the production that Josh Downs is leaving behind them doesn't look like right now at least is going to be able to play in 2023 with Tez Walker so that's a that's a pretty gaping hole for me to say the offense will have the same production defense is what it is love drake may but unless we're getting him a neck roll and having him play linebacker as well i i don't
Starting point is 01:00:09 love the way this thing shapes up for me i i think i think great may is a hybrid linebacker safety that i think we're pretty that's an nfl player right there we get him beefed up a little bit i mean athletic family maybe chas rott work it's basically it's it's chess rot situation except all of the nfl gms would come and kill you there's some protein yeah exactly now i the the the tez walker situation is awful by the way because for those who don't know he started his career in at north carolina central they canceled their season during the pandemic so he goes to kent state he transfers to north carolina kind of assuming it would be treated like his first transfer because
Starting point is 01:00:50 he left north carolina central because they canceled their season and no it was treated as a second transfer he's denied a waiver so he's not playing and that is a as you pointed out massive blow to them so we'll see what happens but JD this was a this was a blast it's I feel like we've been talking so much realignment and and so much behind the scenes politics of college football that you forget in about a week and a half we're watching games yeah it's a beautiful thing it is a beautiful thing and I think it's very interesting how those political things kind of got slid in right before the door closed on the offseason but nonetheless they can't stop saturday from happening as long as we got that that saturday happening here in the fall we're going to be in good shape but no i appreciate having me on man
Starting point is 01:01:38 this is an absolute blast and excited to see us all go up perfect here when we look back on this thing uh in december yeah we are going we look back on this thing in December. Yeah, we are going to look back on it, by the way. This could get ugly. I'm sure there will be multiple fan bases. I am sure there are Oklahoma State fans clipping this right now going, we're going to show you, Andy, that you'll see how wrong you were, and they're going to wind up winning 10 games, and I'm going to look like a complete moron.
Starting point is 01:02:02 This is what we do. But we definitely have to do this again. We'll, we'll, when we get some, uh, we get closer to week one, we're going to have to pick some games. A hundred percent. We'll make it happen, man. Thank you, JD. Appreciate you, Andy. Today's extra point features. One of my favorite people in college football, Miami strength coach, Aaron Feld. One of the coolest things he does every year is the fill the sleeves challenge. You know, if you talk to Aaron Feld, he's not a big believer in we work arms this day, we work legs this day, every day is leg day, every day is arm day. And when you fill the sleeves, you know, you're, you're pumping those
Starting point is 01:02:40 arms up for massive biceps, but in Feld's case, you fill the sleeves for a good cause. They do the 45-day challenge, and you can donate, and everything will benefit Special Olympics. And he's given out T-shirts to those who donate. And so that drive for Feld is almost over as we approach the season. So he wanted to remind everybody that if you'd like to donate to Special Olympics... What up? Coach Feld here, and I have no idea what day it is of the 45-Day Challenge,
Starting point is 01:03:12 but it doesn't really matter because every day is Arm Day. And even though every day is Arm Day, does not mean that the Every Day is Arm Day T-shirt will be available every day. As a matter of fact, this Thursday, August 17th, is your last day to order the fill the sleeves every day is arm day t-shirt benefiting special olympics so go online click the link in my bio order a shirt be awesome and fill the sleeves let's go
Starting point is 01:03:35 greatest mustache in college football he told me he kept the the handlebar mustache mostly because his wife hated it and she she really does love him because he's he's kept it for all these years but if you want to help out go to at coach feld on x twitter whatever we're calling it these days the link is in his bio you got a couple more days help fill the sleeves help out out Special Olympics. Coach Fell getting it done down there in Coral Gables. We're getting it done here. We are very close to games. Talking to JD got me very pumped up about all of this college football that is coming our way. It is an avalanche. It will be here very, very soon. I cannot wait, and we will get you ready for it day by day as we get closer and closer. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

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