Andy & Ari On3 - PICKING College Football Week 6: Indiana-Nebraska, Oklahoma-Texas, Georgia-Alabama, UCLA-Oregon

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

As the college football calendar dives deeper into the month of October, Andy & Ari are set to pick a HUGE week six of college football games here. Watch here as the fellas dive into the intriguing Friday night games and then pick an entire slate of games on Saturday.(0:00) On Today’s Episode(0:35) Presenting Sponsor(2:10) Intro: CFB Week 6 (3:44) Records(5:23) Florida State at Louisville(15:06) Iowa at Washington(20:28) Iowa State at BYU(25:51) Gametime(27:24) Indiana at Nebraska(38:35) Jack & Coke(39:11) South Carolina at Florida(47:42) Oklahoma vs Texas(57:09) UCLA at Oregon(1:05:05) LSU at Kentucky(1:12:13) USC-Penn State(1:20:23) Georgia at Alabama(1:29:42) Thanks for watching!As Andy & Ari make their picks for this huge week upcoming in college football, will you follow or fade the guys and their picks?Thanks for watching! See you tomorrow!We are also sponsored by Rhoback! Use the code “ANDYARI20 “ on Rhoback.com for 20% off for all new customers through the end of this week. Rhoback.com -  20% off all Performance Polos, Shorts and more with code: ANDYARI20We are sponsored by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying tickets to every type of event with Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Gametime.coGrab Jack & Coke before the game. It's the iconic combination you already know, with no mixing required—just crack it open and enjoy. Choose the classic that's already done right—Jack & Coke.Jack & Coke is hitting the road, and on October 10, we'll be sipping Jack & Coke in Gainesville on with Patric Young! We’ll be doing our show from NW 21st Street & University Avenue and would love to see you there!https://jack-coke-tailgate-tour-2026.iconex.events/verifyage?lockedEventId=38652&lang=enOur show is presented by Polymarket!New User Offer: Deposit $10, get $50 upon sign uphttps://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/ON3Trade on College Football games every week on Polymarket. Download the Polymarket App with code ON3 for a $20 bonus upon sign up.18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirement apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur.Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/My0ubA7Yh4UHosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River BaileyInterested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Send your questions to:[e-mail]@on3.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Happy Monday. It's a pick show on today's episode of Andy and Ari on three presented by Polymarket and the spreads on Polymarket are fascinating. Florida State at Louisville on a Friday night, Indiana, Nebraska on Saturday, Red River with a very low spread considering what these teams have been. Oh, and by the way, Penn State's favorite against USC. Who knew? Of course, there's Georgia, Alabama. We'll break it all. down, pick the games on today's Andy and Rion 3, presented by Polymarket. We are sponsored by Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, and you can join us at Polymarket, not just by using Polymarket. You can join us on Polymarket, on our On3 squad.

So you download that Polymarket app. There's a QR code on the screen right there. If you hit that, you will be entered into our On3 squad, which has me and Ari and all the Crane and Cone guys and J.D. Pekyll. And you'll be able to see what we're doing on Polymarket. You'll be able to chat with us on Polymarket. People will be on there during games. There will be probably trash talk going back and forth. So join our On3 squad after you join Polymarket. When you join Polymarket, use the bonus code on 3. On 3 and the number 3. You deposit $10. You get $25 upon sign up if you're a new user. So sign up for Polymarket today. Use the

bonus code on three, deposit 10, get 25 bucks, then join our On3 squad. Be part of the fun. All on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply, not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3 presented by Polymarket. It is a pick show. It is time. to pick the games and Ari. This is a loaded, loaded weekend. Last weekend, not a lot of name brand drama,

not a lot going in where you thought, okay, this is going to be a crazy game. We got some crazy games. But this week, the storylines are kind of built in. Yeah, super excited about it, jam-packed. You know, it feels like a, it almost feels like a weekend back in 2017 because, you know, everything is happening during the day and then you're like building up to the big

SEC, you know, main course of tech, sorry, Alabama, Georgia, in a game that might go a long way to determine who actually wins the league. So, you know, that's kind of how it goes in college football sometimes, Andy. Sometimes the weeks, the drama comes from unexpected places, and sometimes you can look the drama right into the face on Monday. And I think we're able to do that today. the games this weekend are awesome. Yeah.

I mean, we got a white out at Penn State with USC going there. And Penn State is favored by a point and a half, which when I saw that on Polly Market, I opened that app and I'm like, what? Excuse me? Did we not watch the games markets?

Did we not watch Penn State go to, go to Evanston and get demolished by Northwestern? But also, USC and Washington was a little too close for comfort for USC. So I kind of get it. All right, let's start on Friday night. We've got a packed Friday night. Why don't we start with records first?

Oh, yeah. Oh, I see. I see where you're going with this. Yes. Ari was seven and three last week. I was four and six. My first under 500 weekend in a while. Yeah, I,

I knew this was going downhill. And my mulligan failed me. I should not have flipped on, on producer rivers, Tennessee valls. So, myculpah, that's my bad. I won't ever do that again. Andy, if it makes you feel better, you're having a great year. Six games over, six games over 500 through almost half the season.

It's actually awesome. You're like really good at this. So don't get, don't put your head down. Oh, no, I was getting, I was getting to that. I'm 29 and 23 overall. You're 22 and 30. So still, still there, but I got to make sure I don't continue to regress to the mean. Have you noticed that I'm like eight or nine games over 500 since we made the joke

that if you fade me, you'll make money this year. Yes. It's hard. Yes, you're not helping people. I'm trying to be consistent, guys. But, you know, I don't know. We'll see how this continues, but I don't think it's just as automatic as fade every pick I make and make money.

Because, you know, you can't even be that good at being that bad. Well, there's a QR code on the screen if you look at it. Hit that QR code. You could join our Polymarket Squad or On 3 Polymarket Squad. So we're all in there. Me, Ari, the Crane and Cone guy is J.D. Pekyll. So you can pick games with us against us. You can fade Ari in real time.

Everybody's in the chat. It's a lot of fun. So hit that QR code. You can join our squad on Polymarket. Ari, let us go to Friday night because we're going to talk a lot tomorrow about Florida State. I called out for voicemails to the Andy and Ari hotline from Florida State fans after Florida State beat Virginia, I said, okay, I want you to tell me where you're at

with your team. How do you feel they just dominated against Virginia? They looked like a very competent team. How do you feel? Because it felt like you were out. It felt like you want this to be over and want to move on to another coach. But what if this guy, what if Mike Norville is winning? And they're going to Louisville. And this is a team in Louisville that was supposed to be competitive in the ACC that has now lost to Wake Forest and NC State in consecutive weeks. So Louisville is a five and a half point favorite, R. Florida State, if they play the way they played last week, is going to beat Louisville. Yeah.

I mean, there's two separate things, Andy. One is what do the fans want? What do the administrators want? What do people outside of the Florida State football building want? But that doesn't mean that has any impact on whether the team gels and comes together. and it turns out to be pretty good. You know, the thing that is just so constantly difficult for me when I ever talking about Florida State

is that we saw these seminals with this coach go undefeated and win the ACC, like not that long ago. You know, maybe in Tallahassee three years ago or four years ago as a maternity. But it's not like he's a terrible football coach and will never win a game ever again. What if he takes a underpaid, maybe no, underinvested roster

and has them gel in a conference that's fairly competitive outside of the most talented teams in the league and actually rips off some wins and has people feeling good and turns us into a Disney movie. Like, I don't know. I just think it might take a little bit more than one competent win for me to start thinking down those lines. That said, they're going on the road to play Louisville,

a team that we thought would finish in the top three or four in the ACC, who has lost their first two games in the ACC, right? No, they beat SMU. They beat SMU, yeah. And that's a pretty big win. And that's actually kind of Jekyll and Heidich in terms of what to expect. So I understand where you're going with Florida State, but it's just like, are you willing to get hurt again and put your trust in those people? Because at any given moment, it can go back and look the way it is. So is last week a trend or is last week the beginning of a trend or an anomaly?

Well, and that's the weird part of this. Like, that's the part about predicting the behavior of 18 to 22 year olds because Florida State did this once last year. They did it to Wake Forest. And Wake Forest last year was a nine-win team, was really sound. They beat a lot of teams they weren't supposed to beat. Their defense was great. And then they went to Tallahassee and Florida State absolutely crushed them. Everything worked.

Everything looked like it was supposed to look. And then Florida State moved on to the rest of the schedule and couldn't do anything. And they were as discombobulated as ever. They were, you know, they struggled. They made a mistake. Like the NC State game, they had the punt that bounced off the helmet. I mean, all kinds of stuff. So that's the question.

Was the Virginia game a sign of this team coming together of this team jelling? Or was it a sign that, yeah, every once in a while, a blind squirrel finds a nut? Now, I will point out, this team scored more on Alabama than anybody else has, too. I think that means something. I think there's a possibility that means something. I think Ashton Daniels may be better than we're giving him credit for because he's the reason they played that way against Virginia. He's also the reason they scored that many against Alabama.

Right. What coach would you take in this matchup? Jeff Brom. Where's the game being played? The game is being played at Louisville on a Friday night. What quarterback would you take? I might take Ashton Daniels right now. I know Lincoln Keenholz has been okay, but I mean, he played well against Ole Miss,

but Ashton Daniels played well against Alabama. I think the skill position players are probably a wash too, right? Yes. The state's got some really good skill. Really good receivers on both sides. Usman Chrome is fantastic back for Florida State, you know, Isaac Brown at Louisville. This might be one of the most challenging games we've picked all year. It is.

It is because you. You were asking, did what happened last week have anything to do with what happens this week? And it's, you know, Eli Drinkwood said it after Missouri beat Florida. He's like, he's like, that game's over. This game had a life of its own. And now it's over. And the next game will have a life of its own. Coach, this snaps a bit of a skit that you guys have done.

I think it's about 25 opponents. What does that mean for you and your program? It doesn't mean anything. This is about this game. That's just noise that people create on social media for no reason. has nothing to do with anything. Every game has a life of its own. It's people searching for crap to talk about.

And it had nothing to do with this game. Each game has a life of its own and an opponent of its own. And we try to make up the best matchup that we can. And that's the hot take world right now. Try to find, you know, what are things that you can poke holes in our program about? Great. That's fine. Do what you want to do, but it doesn't phase us any. and that's something I think we probably should remember as we do this because the thought that

you're going to get the same Florida State and the same Louisville, I don't know about that. But now, here's the other question. I don't think we've seen the same Florida State every week. We've seen them get better as the season's gone on. Have we seen basically the same Louisville every week is the question? because sometimes teams just are what they are. Louisville did a pretty good job of pushing Ole Miss. They did, but is Ole Miss any good?

I guess the jury's still out on that. Yeah. There's one other factor that you're forgetting here. That's really important. This game is on Friday night. I know, I know. This isn't a traditional Saturday day. And Louisville has, in my mind,

remembering just I didn't look this up but I just was by memory didn't Louisville beat Miami on a Thursday last year Friday was it a Friday last year yep they won at Miami on Friday it seems to be pretty lethal wasn't the old miss game on Sunday or something like it wasn't on Saturday so like Louisville not on a Saturday I like I like where you're going with this like that they don't they seem to play well when they're on national television and I don't know if that's a if that's a trend or if that's a perception. But I think that that's the thing between Isaac Brown and Lincoln Keen-Holtz, where the game is being played, when the game's being played, the fact that you can't fully trust Florida State in being who they are. Maybe this one will explode on my face and Florida

State will win two games in a row. We can have a nice warm discussion about what the future for Mike Norvell looks like next Monday. I'm having a really hard time picking against Louisville here. I've been burned so many times in real life with real investments on Polly Market on Florida state over the years. I'm not doing it, man. I don't know where you're at. Are there any last words for you before you get going? Because Florida State's really hard to trust.

Are you taking, you're taking Louisville? I am. Taking Louisville cover the five and a half, huh? Mm-hmm. If it was on Saturday, I might think twice about it, but not Friday night. What's that sound? What's that? What's it?

Dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun. that's what I heard when I was at the SMU game. They would chant and then they'd boo and they chant and they boo. And I think when we listen to the voicemails tomorrow, we're going to hear a lot of those people still booing. But you know what? I might actually believe, especially if you're giving me points.

Give me Florida State to cover. Dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun. There's nothing that a Florida state fan wants to hear more than a former Florida Gator football player do that. So keep going. Their season's not bad enough. They need this now. Listen, everything about their existence is torture right now, including if they, what if they cover this? Like, what if I'm right, they cover and they lose by three?

Like, this is, it's all torture for that. I think some people would prefer that. That's what we're talking about. And our phone number 615-738-8879, I think what they might. not prefer is winning eight games. Probably not. Because your perception and some people's perceptions might be, well, he did a really good job with the lower,

lesser talented roster. Then we start the stuff all over again. They reinvest, they come out, they lose their opener next year. Like, this is what they're trying to avoid. And like, I don't know. Again, phone number 615, 378, 8, 8, 79. Tell me if you're a Florida State fan,

do you want them to win? Are you going to make me listen to so many voicemails tonight because they already sent us like 100. Okay. Well, you know, no, I like a good sample size. I do. I like a good sample size means that the ones that we pick are awesome. So that's good.

Exactly. Exactly. We can move on to the next game, but that's going to be a let's go live on Friday night game. So maybe depending on where things are at, but we'll, no guarantees yet. Yeah. Iowa at Washington, the Huskies returned home after a narrow defeat at USC. the last time they were at home, they lost in Minnesota. Iowa, meanwhile, coming off getting Jeremiah Smith to death against Ohio State.

What do we think on this one? Because Iowa has won a tough game on the road at Michigan, but we don't know what Michigan is or we think we do. But Washington probably should have beaten USC. That fumble, scoop and score from the Jakeem Stewart picked up and scored. I think was the difference in that game. Do we think Washington can get back in a game where they're probably going to, they're probably going to struggle to score?

There will not be a play where they throw it to the tight end and everybody tries to grab his flag. That's not going to happen against Iowa. Yeah. Did your perception of Iowa change at all based on what happened to Ohio State? Because it did not change at all for me. No. No, they're limited offensively, as they almost always are.

They're very good defensively. They just can't cover Jeremiah Smith and nobody else can't either. Washington doesn't have a Jeremiah Smith. They have a DeMond Williams, who's really good. I mean, that fourth down throw against USC was special, special. But you can also get DeMond Williams on the ground as USC showed. So it's not like he's the best escape artist in the world. there are guys that keep plays alive better than he does.

So you're going to get him down sometimes. He's going to produce negative plays. I just mentioned one very negative play that probably costs in the game. So I just, I think Iowa is really going to keep this, this score very low. The total is 41.5. That feels high. This is Washington is a two and a half point favorite in this game. If you're going to give me points, I'll take Iowa.

Yeah. it's got to be difficult at times to be an Iowa fan. I think that they are very prideful in the way that Kirk Farrant's coaches, and they're very prideful in Kirk Farrant's, and they should be because it's been unbelievable to watch the consistency in which he's won games, especially with the way that they do it sometimes, right? Like, I mean, you're talking about a pun return touchdown or something in the fourth quarter, that's the difference a lot of the time.

I don't know how he does it, but he does it. does it. The hardest part, though, if you're an Iowa fan, because you can look at the rest of their schedule, and I don't know if it's if it's here, River, but go ahead and pop it up if you do. There isn't a single team left on Iowa schedule that they cannot Iowa. Yes. Right. They played Ohio State. They lost by 17, but they can Iowa, Wisconsin, they could Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska. Not a single team there that cannot be Iowaed.

starting with Saturday. But even if they win the rest of their games, although I doubt that they will, because if you're in one position, games every week, the variance of results is high. They will eventually play a team that has a player like Jeremiah Smith

and not be able to win. No, they won't. No, they won't. There's only one Jeremiah Smith. Then they'll play a Keelan Russell or a Gunner Stockton or they reinventing in the playoff. In the playoff. They will eventually have.

Yeah. That's great. I don't know if maybe the, you can call in Iowa fans. Let's bury Andy with voicemails. But the idea. I thought you meant the regular season. I'm sorry.

Yeah. In the regular season, they absolutely could make the playoff. Like I really do believe that this team, I wonder, I don't know, Andy, if they were 10 and 2.

I guess it would depend on what the rest of the, the competition looks like in terms of, you know, season ending resumes. But if they finish 10 and 2, I think they might be on the, cusp of it. And that gives them one more sitting where Vandy was last year.

That's right. I mean, that's probably the bandy team they beat in the bowl game. Yeah. So especially because the game that they just ended up losing wasn't particularly close. But the thought process that eventually you're going to play somebody with a freak roster and you're not going to be able to punt your weight them to death.

Like Ohio State had drives of 70 yards, 75 yards, and 84 yards in that game. Like the field position doesn't matter when Jeremiah Smith's running up down the field. So like that sucks because there's only there's a certain ceiling to how high you can go. That said, they can certainly Iowa the hell out of Washington. Yes. And I don't know what's going to happen if we're right because I'm also picking Iowa with you, Andy. But then we have to have a long, hard conversation about the way things are going in Seattle because

Jed Fish is off to a pretty bad start this year. Yeah. They needed that USC win. They need this win. But yeah, I'm with you. Iowa plus two and a half. Now, the team from across the state is headed on the road to Provo. Iowa State at BYU. This is the late game Friday night. Iowa State first big 12 win for Jimmy Rogers.

Very exciting game against West Virginia. They beat him 45, 42. BYU grinded one out at TCU, 1, 1710. And the question I have for you, Ari, is can Iowa State keep up what they did last week in an intense road environment where it's a Friday night, you're on a short week. And for BYU, are we going to see a little more offense than we saw against TCU where they were, it felt like they just couldn't really get going? Yeah. It's interesting because we've been spending all this time talking about how Texas Tech gets getable. And then you go down the list of, well, who else could win this league?

Then you first obviously arrive at BYU. BYU's offense has not looked great. No, it has not. And now this is a chance. I feel like this could be a get right for them. You know, Iowa State has not been great defensively. And, you know, you saw Utah handle them. pretty easily. So I think the question is, is it a return to foreign? Because like,

Iowa, Iowa State looked good defensively against Iowa, but it might be that everybody looks good defensively against Iowa. You know, they gave up, they gave 31 to Utah. I think this game probably plays out similarly to the Utah game. And that one was in Ames. So I, I think this one's going to play out in a fairly similar fashion. It's going to be a little easier for BYU to score. Also, I think the emotion of that West Virginia game and the way they won it with a new team. And we know this is an almost entirely new team, new players. I don't know that it necessarily all just clicked into place. And that's just what they're going to be every week.

An important piece of injury news. BYU running back, LJ. Martin, left the game and BYU's went over TCU. And I don't know if we have a 100% certainty. I guess we'll have to wait for availability reports of whether. he's going to play, but he's a thousand-yard rusher and maybe the engine that drives their offense. So if you're looking for a reason for why BYU only scored 17,

maybe the reason is that they didn't have their most reliable offensive playmaker outside of Bear Bachmeyer on the field for most of the game. Yeah. And I don't know if he's playing. Isaiah Glassker, their linebacker, also got knocked out. He had an interception and got hit and

left after that. Yeah. It's going to be... Kalani Sataki was encouraged by Martin's injury in terms of like the severity of it. So I don't know if that again, we don't know if he's playing this weekend, but maybe not having your bell cow running back

who runs your pounded out offense is, is an issue here. So, you know, Iowa State I thought looked pretty good their last time out, right? Yep. But this isn't going to be West Virginia's defense. They're playing. This game.

Yeah, this game's also Friday night in Provo, right? And Friday night in Provo gets wild, doesn't it? I've never been there. Well, so BYU is a 10.5 point favorite. That's, that's the only caveat is this is a big spread. So I still, I got faith in BYU here.

I think they bounced back. And I think they, whether LJ. Martin plays or not, this is a chance for them to figure out what they can do. If they don't have him, they've got to figure out what happens if they don't have them. Because that's something,

if you fancy yourself a playoff type team, you need to be able to be deep. than one star on your offense. Speaking of stars on offense, though, can we talk for 10 seconds about Aden Flora? Did you see this? Yes. Yes.

I think he's a former walk on that didn't get invited to go to Penn State, who now is a scholarship. He rushed for 22 times for 212 yards and three touchdowns against West Virginia. And he also threw two touchdown passes. Two for 48 yards, two touchdowns. I don't know if we're having Flora mania.

But give you the cyclones, man. I'm writing the Floromania. If LJ.R. If LJ. Martin's playing, and we have one of the, like, cool big 12 stars. Like, what is the beginning of,

like, the new Cam Scadaboo? I don't know. But you didn't know or expect that from Cam, and now he's just starting running back for the New York Giants. And I know that maybe that's not the right comparison. I'm just saying sometimes stars come out in places that you least expect.

And I don't know if you watched any of the highlights or this game. I certainly did. He was awesome. So you're going to give me 10. and a half points and I have the best most sensational talent, the most electric talent in the Big Twin. Big 12, give me, give me Aden Flora.

Give me the, give me the Cyclones and give me Jimmy Rogers. And by the way, I like this vibe at Big 12 Media Day. I'm not going to tell you why I like this vibe, but there was something that occurred there, and I think you remember this. I do. Where I was like, this guy, this guy might, my gut, might have something here. So I'm going to

go cyclone. No. No, he's easy to believe in. He's very easy to believe in. But so is Scalani Sataki, which is why taking BYU. Ari, before we move to Saturday, we're going to talk about game time. All of these games we're talking about, you can get tickets on game time. You download the game time app. You enter the team you want to see.

Oh, here's the Alabama Georgia game. Tickets available from $281. Yes, that is a very, very big game at Bryantany Stadium. That's actually a little less than I thought. Want to go to Red River, $2.99 plus right now. If you're an Oklahoma or Texas fan who wants to hit the Red River rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, But you name it, UCLA, Oregon, LSU, Kentucky, USC Penn State, if you want to go to the whiteout. All of those tickets are on Game Time.

And as you can see on the screen, when you are looking at the app, you are looking at the view from the seat you would be buying. You're also looking at the price you would be paying because the price you see on Game Time is the price you pay. I've used Game Time for a bunch of stuff. Most recently, we took our daughter to the Megan Maroni concert for her birthday. and the tickets were fantastic, and I knew exactly what they were going to look like because I looked at them on the GameTime app beforehand. So if you use the code Staples, that's STAP-L-E-S,

you get $20 off your first purchase. Terms Apply. Download the GameTime app. Use the code Staples, $20 off your first purchase. Ari, let us move to Saturday. Let us go to Lincoln, Nebraska. Indiana, defending national champion, comes in to face the undefeated cornhuskers.

The Hoosiers are a seven and a half point favorite in this game. This is a big one for Matt Rule, who, by the way, star turn on the season finale of lanterns, the Green Lantern show on HBO Max. And, boy, he was good. He's good. He landed a big quarterback who happened to also be, well, I'm not going to, I'm not going to spoil anything, but he landed a big quarterback. I'll check it out

no you won't you have no capacity for whimsy you don't watch superhero shows it's about it's about the green lanterns you know Hal Jordan John Stewart little guy gardener sprinkled in there so

I don't know what a green lantern is but the there's a great show I've been watching with my wife called war about a divorce yeah Matt rule's not in that show so in brightest day in blackest night.

No Hoosier shall escape my sight. For those who worshiped Signetti's... Sorry, I'm sorry, I can't. You don't know the Green Lantern Creed? I don't know who that is. He's the guy with like the green jumpsuit that has like a white marking on his chest or something. Yes, yes, he has a ring.

He can create things with the ring in his mind. They're called constructs. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's electric. I'm going to tune in right up what we're done here. So, so... The question is, does Anthony Calandria become a superhero in this game? And Nebraska wins the biggest.

I mean, this would be the biggest win for Nebraska in at least 12 years. The game I'm thinking of is 2015 Michigan State. But that Nebraska team already had some losses piled up. So they did beat the team that ultimately won the Big Ten that year, but they weren't themselves a condition. in the big 10 that year. This team, if they can win a game like this, it means they can compete in this big 10. Yeah.

I want to believe so bad, Andy. I want to think that that place is going to be rocking. They're going to let their balloons go very early. Do they still do the balloons or was there an issue there? There was an environmental thing, but then they came back and did it. I think they'll do the, I think they're doing the balloons this way. Do the balloons, okay? The turtles will be fine.

right. You're not anywhere near the body of water that where they can choke on them, right? I think so. I saw a shirt in public yesterday, by the way, that said, what if the turtles needed straws? And it was a turtle with a straw in his nose snorting cocaine off of another turtle's shell. And I thought that was really funny. Sorry, you can cut that river if that's not appropriate. Do the people need to know about that? I don't think the people needed to know about that. We're trying to talk about Indiana, Nebraska and Green Lantern. I think people, I guarantee you that a large segment of the audience laughed at that. Yes.

I want to believe in Nebraska. I really do. I think Anthony Calandria might actually turn out to be a better fit for this offense than Dylan Rayola. I understand that that community, that city, that state is clamoring and hungry for a win in a way that you might not be able to find anywhere else in college football. If you did the equation, passionate fan base plus starvation equals desperation, which, other program has that fan base that is that starved for a win like this. I think you'd be hard pressed to find one. Now, you know, there's a lot of people who want, who want to be good and haven't been good

in a while. But when you think about what Nebraska was, you know, we've had callers call in saying, you know, they're showing their wives, YouTube videos of, you know, Eric Crouch playing. Like, I mean, it's been a long time. Has Nebraska done enough this year in your mind against the, competition that they've faced to make you think that they belong on the same field with the legitimate national championship. Not yet.

But they have shown more competence than we've seen from them in the last few years. They have shown some big play capability. And if Jamal Rule is playing in this game, which I get the sense that that's, that they were holding him out of the Maryland game to have him for this game. I think, I think they have the capability. ability to to gain some yards on the ground against Indiana. And look, we saw Indiana look pretty mortal against Northwestern. And granted, what we saw from Northwestern last week suggests that that's probably because

Northwestern is really good. But there's no reason Nebraska can't be on that level. As good as Northwestern. Right. That's what I mean. So you're in a one possession game at that point. And again, this is a seven and a half point spread. So if you're in a one possession game now,

that Nebraska isn't worried about covering, they're worried about winning here. But for our purposes, if you feel like Nebraska can get in one possession game with these guys, you should be pretty confident in that pick. Yeah, you know, the thing with Indiana that is interesting to me is that if you go look at the way that the close game

against Northwestern aged, it aged pretty well, Andy. Northwestern turned around. around and rushed for 400 yards on Penn State's defense and a pretty dramatic and emotional and big blowout win over Penn State on Friday night. Now, part of that might have been, you know, stadium vibes. They unleash the new Ryan Field for the entire world to see, beautiful stadium. Everyone's amped up.

But I don't know if that, if that propels you to 400 yards rushing. That's a pretty absurd statistic. Well, do you want to, do you want to hear how many yards Northwestern gave, or Northwestern gained against Indiana the week before. On the ground, I know. I know the answer to this. That's where I was going. So I'm going to cheat.

Say it. It was 32, right? 27 carries for 32 yards. Yes. That's what Indiana did in Northwestern. So if you start to like actually zoom out a little bit, it's like Indiana, I think physically for the most part. Now, Aiden Childs had some had some moments in that game, right?

They weren't able to stop them very well in the second half. But the other, the other side of the coin, too, is, I know that Indiana has been so infallible and so consistent under Kurt Signetti, but are they not allowed as a program to go play a less than ideal game on Friday night on the road in the Big Ten? Like are going to have to blow out? Why does Indiana have to blow out? They were at home in that game. Oh, either way.

Why does Indiana have to blow out everybody for us to think that they're like? Yeah, I know. We grade them on a different on a different scale. than everybody else. Ohio State plays close games. Michigan, bad example this year, has played close games in the past. Alabama plays close games. Alabama isn't getting judged for giving up 36 points to Florida State yet. Like, why is Indiana being overly judged based on a closer game against what might be the fifth best team in the Big Ten? Like, I just think that we are too soon, and we might find out on Saturday, Andy, that Indiana isn't as good as they were last year.

It's highly a hundred to be as good. It would be hard to be that good. Yes, but that doesn't mean that they're not a legitimate playoff contender or they're not allowed to have a bad game where they hold a team that's capable of rushing 400 yards against Penn State to 32. So, you know, I don't know if I'm 100% as skeptical of Indiana because there's a lot of skepticism out there, obviously because of the logo, obviously because people are still in shock by what happened last year

and even more doubtful that they can do it again. But if Nebraska keeps this game close, that's us finding out about Nebraska Saturday. I don't think we found out about them yet. Right. We know about Indiana. We know they're good. We know they're probably a playoff team. So, yeah, I think

you're right about that. So I think I'm ready to make a pick. I think I'm ready to make a pick too. I'm going to go Indiana minus seven and a half. I think Indiana is, and like, listen, I think that Indiana could win a 10-point game and Nebraska fans can walk out of their stadium feeling pretty good about that. I don't know if it's win or go home for Nebraska.

I think if they play a competitive game that, you know, that bolsters them up for what could be a really exciting and fruitful season for them. But I'm not sure I'm 100% on board with 5 and 0 against overmatched opponents is enough to stay on the field with Indiana. Right. I'm taking Indiana to cover too. I also think the bigger the game gets and the bigger the moment gets, we've seen that Cignetti's teams tend to really ride. to the moment.

And they, you know, when the attention is on them, they, they really do seem to just plaster people. So I, I, I just,

my guess is defensively, they are on point. We saw Josh Hoover play probably his best game in Indiana so far against Purdue, or excuse me, as Rutgers. And I get it as Rutgers, but we were looking for him to be just a little bit more efficient.

He was. He still is not thrown an intercept. I think as long as he's taking here the ball, they're in good shape because their defense is going to take care of them. Their defense is going to make sure that the offense is in good position, gets the ball in good field position,

and that the other team is not just hogging time of possession. That's just not, Indiana doesn't let you do that. So, yeah, I'll take Indiana to cover here. And I'm still excited, though, because if Nebraska, like you said, is in a,

within a possession in the fourth quarter, I think that bodes really well for Nebraska. I think that means they're competitive against everybody. One last thought, too. Indiana, like we joked about, it'd be very hard for them to be just as good as they were last year because last year they were sensational and the national champions. What if Indiana's step back isn't something that you see on their overall record,

but is something that you see in the lopsidedness of the games that they're playing in? Last year, Indiana used to beat the crap out of it. you know, just about everybody they played, like, by 30. They didn't make mistakes. They punished people. What if Indiana is a 11-1 team this year that's average margin of victory is 10 points or 14 points less than it was last year during the regular season? Like, that's also on the table.

Just because Indiana is a title contender doesn't mean that they are going to drop 50 in every game that they play. And maybe the Northwestern game is a trend. Maybe they play tough games and they, end up winning by lower margins. It doesn't mean that they don't find a way to win, especially on a road at a big noon game. But I've been on high alert for it.

Indiana is still really good, but they just don't have the horses this year to blow you out the way that they used to last year. Maybe they do. I don't know. We're still finding out. That's right. If I didn't put anybody in the beginning of the season,

so we're learning in real time. I'm a Nebraska fan. I'm cautiously optimistic going into the game. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about the game we're going to be at. We will be hosting an event with Jack and Coke in Gainesville.

You can RSVP to that event, check our socials to find that QR code, that link. The link will be in the show notes if you want to RSVP to that event. There's the QR code right there. We'll be in Gainesville. Corner of Northwest 21st Street and University Avenue. That is right across from the O'Connell Center. Sorry, exact tech arena. But very easy walk from the stadium, probably about a three-minute walk from the stadium.

So we'd love to see you there, 21 and up. That's why you got RSVP, but we'd love to see there. South Carolina at Florida. Florida is a 13 and a half point favorite in this game after getting completely annihilated by Missouri. But this is also the same team that hung 50 on Ole Miss the week before. South Carolina coming off yet another heartbreaking loss. They were up 17, nothing on Kentucky.

They let Kentucky come back. Kentucky beats them in overtime. and Shane Beamer's hot seat status is blazing, blazing. Now, you have the administration hinting that they don't have the money to fire Shane Beamer, which, well, you shouldn't have extended him two years ago when you did because you weren't bidding against anyone. But again, that was a different AD than they have now, too. That was Ray Tanner. This is Jeremiah Donati.

So this is a very complicated situation going into this game, Ari. Like Florida, before the Missouri game, you just assume Florida is going to run all over whoever they play. That Jaden Bond, Duke Clark are going to combine for at least 200 rushing yards. And it's going to be Florida controlling the ball and Aaron Philo finding receivers open very easily because they are running the ball. Missouri did not let them do squat. Like no, there was a, I saw a stretch play that somebody tweeted where, you know, the Florida offensive linemen are all trying to reach block. And these are guys that were successfully blocking this play against Ole Miss, against Auburn,

and just Missouri winning one-on-one matchup after one-on-one matchup and stuffing these things. And Missouri has good defensive linemen. I don't know that they have the best defensive line in the SEC. Like, this is repeatable. You can, if they can stop Florida, somebody. else can stop Florida on the ground too. I'm having a hard time because what is Florida?

That's what makes it so confusing because the way they won the first four games they looked like they were going to score 35 points a game easy. Like, if you wanted to beat him, you'd have to beat him and attract me.

But Missouri put the light of that. Like Missouri showed you can shut them down on the ground. And when you shut them down on the ground, that they don't, they're not nearly as effective through the air. Yeah. You know, we can all blame this on LSU, right? We all thought that LSU was going to be one of the four or five best teams in the country, be good, good.

Ole Miss beats the crap out of them. And then, well, I guess they beat the crap out of them for a half. And then LSU came back and made it a game. Kudos to you. Yeah, it was a close game. Tigers on the road. Yeah. Yeah.

But then we had this drummed up view of Ole Miss. and Trinidad Chambliss and what they do offensively. That was one of the best games we've seen in a long time. And then Ole Miss turns around and goes to Florida. It's like this like this is the thing that I think a lot of people have had with the SEC and the in the grand scheme of things with discourses that we build up all these teams to be very good. We watch them play on TV. They look very good.

They're high flying SEC games on national television. Then the results start coming in. And then when they all beat each other, you have to make a decision of, Are these teams mediocre and we're, you know, giving people false credit for beating teams that we thought were better than they are? Or are they all really good? And are they just beating up on each other? And then we have segments in November on the Fine Bomb show that make you want to pull your hair out.

And like it looks like we're down, like we're down on that road again when it comes to this. Because Florida's entire existence as a, as the B word or the P word, which we, or not me, I did it, not we, I did it with the B word last week, after they beat the crap out of Ole Miss is predicated on Ole Miss being good. And then earlier in the show, you said, are we sure Ole Miss is good? So I don't know what Florida is yet.

And I'm assuming that they have, Oleis has to be good because they have those two really good players, especially offensively. They have to be semi good. Well, one of them hasn't been playing. So we don't know yet. Yeah. And we don't know anything. We're talking about Louisville and maybe Louisville,

you pick Florida State to, cover Louisville game and Louisville pushed Ole Miss to the limit like I don't know where we are just lost to NC State are I know and that team pushed Ole Miss so maybe Ole Miss stinks I don't know I don't know um here's what I do know Andy South Carolina stinks okay that that's that's unequivocal fact right two and 12 in their last 14 games against power opponents um they blew a 17 point lead against Kentucky Shane Beamer, nice guy, love having him on the show, love his fire, his charisma,

looks like he's like at the end of his rope. They're going to the swamp. I don't want to be even thinking about what a Florida practice with John Summerall looks like this week. I feel bad for the guys who have to show up. Massive spread. I've been talking for two minutes. I don't know what I'm talking about.

Well, here's the thing. Do you think that Lenora Sellers can do to Florida what Austin Simmons did to Florida. That's the question. And when I say Lenora Sellers, I say Lenora Sellers and South Carolina's receivers. So like I have faith in Maisio Bennett. I don't think I have faith in Nick Harbor.

I think we've got enough sample size at this point. We're catching two touchdowns, man. I know. I know. I don't think they have to do it all. I mean, we might find out that Austin Simmons is actually one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. I don't know.

I think we're going to find that out about Austin Simmons. And Lenora Sellers has had plenty of time to make his case on that. You know, I think I'm out on him. So I love his physical traits. I got DJ Lagwayed on him for two years using that example. Well, I'm interesting you use that example because what did DJ Lagway just do last weekend? He lit it up, dude. DJ Lagway's electric.

But what I'm telling you, so what? What I mean by that is that's in Lenora Sellers still somewhere. It is. In trying to pick when it's going to happen is so hard. And it's the reason why I'm under 500 by 1,000 games this year. Yeah. I think that Florida is much better than South Carolina. I think Florida is going to come out playing angry at home.

I think South Carolina is at the end of the ropes. Well, with South Carolina, you have to worry about the keyword as well. Yeah. I'm going to take Florida. Scary. I'm scared, but I'm going to take Florida. So I've picked wrong with Florida the last two weeks. I think I got the Auburn game right,

but I've been wrong the last two weeks with Florida. So I think just to stick with you might be the way to go so that I don't fall behind anymore in the standings by picking them wrong again. So yeah, give me the gators. Give me the gators to cover. I also think they bounce back. and again with South Carolina,

how much longer can they keep playing tough games and losing and still coming back every week as fired up as they were the week before? I will make a note that we haven't seen spreads this big typically in the SEC the last few years as the talent has bunched closer together. This would be the type of spread

that you would see every time Alabama or Georgia took the field against the middle tier team in the conference. But now that the middle, tier is starting to blend in with the top tier. And Florida's probably a middle tier team. And South Carolina is more of a lower tier team. You're making me want to change my mind.

So just change the game. Like I don't like. All right. We're both taking Florida to cover here. Neither of us is that sure about it. But I'm basically doing it so that I don't fall another game behind in the standings. You're way ahead of me. You just don't want to lose that.

I know. I want to stay that way. All right. Let's go to Dallas. Ari, the markets, I'm fascinated by this. It's not just the spread. Texas is favored by seven and a half against Oklahoma. It's the total. The total in this game is 39.5.

It was 38.5 on Sunday night. It's bumped up. We're recording this Monday morning. It's bumped up to 39.5. But essentially, the markets are predicting an Iowa game at Red River. which given the last time we saw Texas and every time we've seen Oklahoma, that makes sense. It tracks because Texas, Texas Tennessee was an Iowa game.

Oklahoma's defense, we think, is probably as good as Tennessee's defense. So as long as John Mateer doesn't hand the ball to Texas and be like, here, please run this in for a touchdown, Mr. defensive end. then I think it could be a close kind of slob knocker rock fight game. That is what Oklahoma is banking on. So I guess the real question is, why are the markets projecting that Oklahoma gets to dictate the type of game this is going to be? Is their defense good enough?

Because Texas couldn't dictate the the tempo against Tennessee. And if Oklahoma's defense is better than Tennessee's, why would they be able to do it against Oklahoma? I also think environment time of day that that happened, you know, playing in Knoxville. Like I think that like there's other factors there. Yeah.

What I do know is that Oklahoma was able to pull that feet off for a half of football last year, then they got their doors blown off. So like I don't know if that is something that I think they can put together for four quarters, especially considering the fact that I'm not. not sure that their quarterback can detect the ball. Part of turning this into an Iowa game is protecting the ball,

playing field position, getting stops and moving the ball gradually and slowly and efficiently with your offense. And like, you know, I know that Iowa isn't known for offensive football, but their offense plays a key role in playing in those games, which is don't turn the ball over, you know, protect it, run it, milk first downs, milk clock, shorten game, extend possessions, and don't let your opponent get out to the races. Now, I do think that there is certainly a place here where you can say, Oklahoma can turn this into a 17 to 14 type game.

Oklahoma is one of the best defenses in the country. Their defense is better than Tennessee's. Tennessee stopped. I mean, with Texas scored touchdowns against Tennessee in the first possession and the last possession and none in between. Right. So there is a recipe there that's right out there looking at you in the eye. I also know that Oklahoma probably has spent the last two weeks saying we can save ourselves in our season by playing our asses off in the game that we're judged in.

I know that this is a weird game. The fair is crazy. All of that stuff. I don't think that Oklahoma can do it to Texas for four quarters. I don't think they can play mistake-free offensive football for four quarters. I don't think they can stop Texas, who's also had two weeks to prepare for this game for four quarters. Right. I don't think their offense can score enough to stay within seven and a half points.

I am very skeptical of that. I'm looking at the Tennessee game again, and this is where it's tricky with the way college does rushing stats because they back sacks out of rushing. Because if you look at just the stats from the Tennessee game, Tennessee ran 44 times for 70 yards against Texas, but that's not really true. There were 10 sacks where they lost 73 yards.

Yeah. So you had four. You had 34 carries essentially where you gained 134 yards. Now, Tennessee's rushing game is significantly better than Oklahoma's. You know, Tennessee can hand off to Deshaun Bishop and feel very comfortable that they're going to gain some yards. Oklahoma, they're not confident their running backs can do anything. They have abandoned the running backs pretty quickly into every game. and with the exception of U-TEP, which doesn't really count.

So I don't have a lot of faith that Oklahoma can grind it out that way. The other thing that I think is interesting is we go back to last year and Tennessee, or excuse me, Texas was coming off that loss at Florida where they looked horrible. And Archmanning just got battered. Well, Archmanning just got battered at Tennessee as well. And, you know, Sark, I think. very carefully planned out that Oklahoma game to protect Arch because he had been hit so much in the Florida game. And it was Sark's best game plan of the year. It turned out fantastic against

a really good Oklahoma defense. You gave him two weeks again to do it. This is just how their schedule works as both these teams get the week off before this game. That's bad for Oklahoma because this gives Sark a chance to look back at the entire season so far and say, what am I doing well as a play caller? What am I doing poorly? What works for this group and what doesn't work for this group? And probably he comes up with the best plan that he'll come up with the rest of the season because he's got time to evaluate all that relative to the defense he's about to play.

Yeah. So, well, I think there's two aspects to it is I never doubted Steve. Sarkeesian, the game planner. I still think that he's a good game planner. I doubt Steve Sarkeesian, the play caller with everything else that's on his plate in the heat of battle and the bullets are flying. And I don't know if there's a huge difference between those two things to you, Andy, but there is to me. And they're playing a really good defense. And I don't think that Texas's offense disappearing for large portions of games is unique to the Tennessee game.

You can go back to previous games. even into last year where this was this it's a different team but they're not just a offensive juggernaut that blows everyone out when they should be talent-wise they have not gotten results commiserate with the financial investment they made in the players on their offensive side of the ball so like i do think that there is some reason to worry but texas would probably be upset with a 24 point output right that would be disappointing to them So let me ask you this. Is Oklahoma scoring 24 points?

Is Oklahoma scoring more than 14? Like after what we've seen? I don't, you know, like that's the, that's the calculus. It's like A, they could have an offensive breakout, score a ton of points. Ohio State, I mean, what they did against Ohio State, they scored more than 24, right? Yeah.

But they could have a huge breakout, score 34 points, and this isn't even a game, and it could be a blowout like last year. Or they could score 24 points. and guess what? Texas's defense is awesome. Also, like I know that Oklahoma's defense is awesome, but so is Texas's

defense is awesome. Texas is probably better than Oklahoma's. That's the other part of this. Texas's defense is maybe, they might have the best defense in the country. Do we really think that Oklahoma is going to lose the game 14 to 8 or 9? I'd probably not.

I just don't see it, man. They'd have to take care of the ball. They'd have to run the ball. And I just don't have any faith in the running the ball. I hope for Oklahoma's sake that they are competitive in this game, because if they're not, we talked to George Stoya the third last week. He had that big survey. 13,000 Oklahoma fans responded.

At the time of the survey, 62.2% of Oklahoma fans did not want to make a change in head coach. George told us, though, he's like, if they're not competitive at Red River, that number will flip. And that's where they're at. They have to come out and be competitive here. They have to. Do you want to know what the worst thing for a quarterback is who is struggling with confidence? Hmm. Colin Simmons.

Yes. Yeah, I weren't sure we were going with that, but absolutely, yes. Let me let's all unzip our pants and celebrate. I don't know about that. On Simmons. Yeah. Listen, this is a tough spot because Oklahoma needs this so badly. And I'm just not sure how it happens.

give me Texas to cover. Give me Texas. I want to do Galaxy Brain and I want to be like, yeah, Oklahoma's going to keep this game close. Because like they didn't have their best offensive game plan against Georgia. George said this too when he was on the show. It just didn't work when your quarterback fumbles the ball backwards

for no reason at the five-yard line. Give me Texas. I'm just not going to overthink it. Nor should you. Nor should you. Okay. Let us go now to Eugene. on Polly Market.

Oregon's a 12.5 point favorite against the UCLA team that has been very good under new coach Bob Chesney. Ari, can you imagine let's let's can we get a visit from two years ago, Ari? I want two years ago, Ari,

to think about this for a second. Hey, two years ago, Ari. Nico I.M. Aliava is starting a game against Dylan Riola. It's a big game, huge conference implications, huge playoff implications. This is exactly how everything was supposed to turn out, right? Yeah, totally. What is this a playoff game?

Tennessee and Nebraska are playing the playoffs? What? Which wouldn't have been that crazy. But here we are. Right, but here we are. Here we are. Nico under Bob Chesney has been what he was supposed to be. Like he's no longer what Nick Rauch called the volleyball player who can't throw the go ball.

He's been very efficient all year, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. It's not like he has lit the world on fire with his stats, but he's done exactly what they've needed. They've been able to run the ball really well. He's thrown two interceptions to four touchdowns, zero interceptions in the two big 10 games they've played. And so like this is this is going to be fun because you've seen. against Boise State, against Oklahoma State, and against USC,

you can move the ball in Oregon. They're going to, like, UCLA's going to score points. We haven't stopped to really. They're probably going to give them up, too. We haven't really stopped to consider this, but we killed Nico for the,

you know, NIL situation with Tennessee, and I don't think that you can go back and change the process of it. I still think it was terrible business. But what if he fell ass backwards into the best young rising coach in college football? Like, because, you know, Bob Chesney wasn't there when he got there. He chose. Yeah.

I was going to say, that's not the coach he chose, but it must work out. And that's what I said fell ass backwards. That's what that is. Yeah. I don't know, but UCLA has looked very good this year. I think people knew that UCLA was going to be much better. there was a lot of chatter at the, you know, personnel symposium about how UCLA is a sneaky Big Ten contender.

And, you know, why don't you tell two years ago already this other thing. UCLA's playing at Oregon, week five or week six, week six, geez, God, we're already, already halfway there, aren't we? Like, what's going on here? It's depressing. Don't rub it in. UCLA is a 12-point underdog on the road, 12-and-a-half-point underdog on the road in Oregon. This feels like people are just looking at helmets.

This feels like people haven't watched the games. And maybe it's a case of UCLA has not played anybody good, and Oregon's had to play a lot of good teams. But, like, Wayne Knight is averaging nine yards of carry for UCLA, the James Madison transfer. Anthony Woods averaging seven and a half yards of carry. J.V. Thomas is averaging five and a half yards of carry. Nico can run, by the way. Remember, that's part of his skill set, too.

This is a balanced offense. Now, do we think that they get to Eugene and suddenly they can't run the ball on it? I don't think they'll run the ball like that on Oregon. I don't think anybody's going to run the ball like that on Oregon. But it's not like Oregon has been impenetrable. You know, Oklahoma State average 5.9 yards of carry against them. USC average 3.6.

If you can get to four yards of carry, you're in this game. Yeah. Yeah. This is a weird number. It is a very weird number. It's like, what do they know that we don't? And Oregon, maybe Oregon's about to put it all together. Maybe Oregon's about to click.

I don't know. Yeah. And the thing, too, is that I know they don't have Dante Moore, but they do have a quarterback who has two years of starting experience, has played in some pretty big games in a loud environment. and is now surrounded by better players that he's ever been surrounded by. Like, this is not the typical backup quarterback situation. No.

So, and we saw that in L.A. a few weeks ago. I'm going to let you go first here. Who do you, what is your perception of Oregon? Do you think Oregon is a team that is about to start humming? Or do you think that what we saw from them in the beginning of the year is a year-long symptom of something being wrong? I think we've seen the same team, pretty much every time.

I don't think there's been a difference. I think the team that beat Boise State the way it beat them and lost Oklahoma State the way they lost to them and beat USC is the same team. Like, we're about to do, we'll do UCLA or USC at Penn State in a little bit. Penn State's favored for a reason in that game. USC almost lost to Washington.

I don't know that going and beating U.S. I don't think beating USC by two touchdowns is necessarily the flex that we think it is. It might not be, but I do think that beating USC on the road with a backup quarterback, I'll buy an experience one, is not the same team as losing and giving up 500 yards or whatever they gave up to Oklahoma State. I would push back on that a little bit. Does that mean that they can keep this team? that has just dominated everybody it's played from keeping it within two touchdowns. That's the question.

Are you going to beat, can the team we've seen all year beat this team by two touchdowns? I don't think so. I don't really answer to that. I'm taking UCLA too. Would you just say? I'm taking UCLA. I thought you said I'm taking UCLA to win. No, no, no, I'm taking them to cover.

You're going to be 12.5 points. I'll take it. the table, pal. I mean, I'm not there yet. I'm not there yet. I swear we didn't plan this. Sometimes we end up picking the same games. Well, I did I did pick the same as you with Florida just because I've lost faith in my ability to pick my alma mater's games. I haven't been paying attention. How we've been picking the same side in a lot of the games this is? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I think all of the Saturday games were on the same side. So, okay. That's okay. I mean, I don't think our announcement. is off here. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we're going to both have a terrible week.

That's probably what's going to happen. I don't think our analysis is wrong here. If Andy and I get through this whole show and we're only different on two, just take the ones that we agree on and fade those because that's what's going to happen. We're not going to be right. It's exactly right. There's no, there's no like, I don't know, Andy and I riding horses on the beach, holding hands, covering bets together. Like, that's just not how it's going to go. So we, yeah, we've differed on all of the Friday games. and none of the Saturday games so far. So this is a, we'll see if, we'll see if we stay consistent here. But this has been a, just a, Bob Chesney, his teams are relentlessly competent.

And I think a relentlessly competent team playing against the Oregon team we've seen this year, will be able to keep it within a couple of touchdowns. That's, that's all, that's all there is. I'm with you. Let's go to the blue grass. We stopped paying attention to LSU after they lost to Ole Miss. They beat McNeese last week.

But this is going to be a very interesting game. They go to Kentucky. They are 10.5 point favorites at Kentucky. Kentucky coming off a road win against South Carolina. They've beaten Texas A&M and South Carolina on the road. Now, here's the question. Does beating Texas A&M in South Carolina mean anything at this point? Or are those teams that if you are a semi-competent team in the SEC,

you're going to beat those teams. LSU beat Texas A&M very badly as well. This is the game where we decide whether LHU is up in the upper echelon with the conference or if they're in the middle of the pack, the bottom, maybe not bottom, but middle of the pack of the SEC. Because Kentucky, I think, is a very solid team. I don't know if they're great, but they're solid. Kenny Minchie has played very well.

they're dangerous at home. We can have Nick Roush on the show again. You know people at Kroger are going to be fired up. But when Kentucky played Alabama at home, they got their ass kicked. LSU expects to be on that plane with Bama, right? They expect to be on that plane with Georgia right now. Not in a year, not in two years, right now. They paid for that.

And I think that this is the game that we're going to find out whether Lane Kiffin is going to be able to deliver that or not. Is that dramatic? We are halfway through the season just about. You're going on the road. Can you stuff Kentucky in a locker in Lexington? Because if you're a playoff team that's going to advance in the playoff, that should be the case. Right. And that's what Alabama did in the second half against them.

Yeah. Yeah. Because these next two games for LSU are going to tell us really all we need to know because they've got Alabama and Texas coming up on the schedule, but they're playing Kentucky this week and they got Mississippi State next week. Those are not going to be easy. Neither one of these is going to be easy. If you're going to be a playoff team, you have to win these. So, yeah, because they're already at the point where they've got to split Alabama and Texas to make the playoff. most likely.

And there's still an at Tennessee in there, too. So you're absolutely right. You have to win this game. That is funny that at Tennessee is on Lane Kiffin's schedule, and it was a footnote in the road games of hatred on their schedule. I know. A lot of people hate the guy. It's, he's pissed off a lot of people over the years.

But, yeah. This is, this is going to be a lot of fun because I think we saw Kenney, Menchie grow up quite a bit as a starting quarterback in the second half of that South Carolina game. It seemed like he was much more in control of the offense. It seemed like he understood what he needs to do. Now, you've got Prince Will Oman Mieland Allen chasing you. Things get a little more stressful. And he didn't have Dylan Stewart chasing him last week.

So that's the question is, you know, is Kenny Menchie able to be upright enough to do what he did last week where if things break down, he can run around a little bit and make something happen. Or is LSU getting him on the ground taking the ball back and just, you know,

letting Sam Levitt cook? I think that's the question because I think, I think if LSU is getting pressure on Minci and getting him sacked, I don't think Kentucky's defense is going to be able to hold up. Yeah.

I don't know where you're at, Andy. with LSU, but I've watched them, and I don't know how much you can take from wins over McNeese State. But, you know, Sam Levitt, I don't think has been playing that sharp. I think they are susceptible to being dragged into a closed game here. I really do. Who you got? LSU. You were talking your way into Kentucky. What happened? I think that LSU has a lot of really good players. I think Kentucky is very improved,

but I think LSU is probably 11 points better. No. Maybe. Maybe. But I'm going to pick Kentucky. You want to know, I'm going to pick Kentucky. You want to know why? To make our show more entertaining.

Because of me. I'm the reason. No. That's what Will Stein said at SEC Media Days. They're going to be better because of him. And yes what? They're better because of him. I don't know that they're going to be within 10.5 points of LSU.

I could be wrong on this. But I'm really excited and have been really excited about what Will Stein can do at Kentucky. I think they built this roster really well. I think this will be an interesting measuring stick. Now, obviously, LSU is going to play Alabama. We'll be able to compare side-by-side performances in Lexington between LSU and Alabama. I don't know that LSU's on that level. And if LSU's not on that level,

then there's a chance that Kentucky is within 10 points in this game or is in a position to win it in the fourth quarter. So that's the difference. I mean, it's interesting because like when Kentucky played Alabama, the teams traded pick sixes. Like, what if,

what if Sam Levitt throws a pick six, but Kenny Menchie doesn't? Like, this is, and it's not like Sam Levitt hasn't shown a propensity to do that. You're right. To throw the ball of the other team.

So, yeah, I'm going to take Kentucky to cover here. I could be wrong, but I think Will Stein is on to something here. I think he's building what could be a really good program in the future. I don't know if they're ready yet, but now's their chance to show us that they're ready and that maybe Lane Kiffin's program is not as far along as we thought. And maybe Lane Kiffin was saying, hey, I need patience. Remember we first got there. He's like, we need a little patience.

Maybe he was saying that for a reason. Yeah. Andy, this also could be the Kentucky arrives game too. That's out there. It's out there. I'm not as, even though I'm picking them to cover, it's not, I'm not that confident in that outcome. I think LSU's probably still just better.

But. Yeah. I don't know if they're that much better. And I think that's that, and that's why I'm picking Kentucky to cover here. Ari, have you checked the forecast? I haven't. Whiteout conditions in state college.

Got it. Yeah, that's what shirts. It's what shirts they're going to wear. It's not going to snow. But USC goes to Penn State, prime time, whiteout game. Penn State is a one and a half point favorite in this game. Ari, when I opened the Polymarket app on Sunday night, I was making the list of games we were going to pick today.

my eyes bulged out of my head when I saw this spread because I watched every second of Penn State Northwestern, and that team did not look capable of beating anybody. And the idea that they're going to now suddenly flip around and beat a USC team that is loaded with aliens, and while they might have one loss, they are still loaded from a talent standpoint, I'm not entirely sure where we're getting this from.

Yeah. The markets have a funny way of telling you what might be right around the corner, don't they? Sometimes if you look right into the number, there's a reason for that number. The most recent example of this, Andy, was, you know, the Ole Miss game against Florida. Everyone's like, what the hell is going on here with the spread? And what did you see? You saw Florida destroy them? Yeah. I'm kind of getting the, sense of that here a little bit. Doesn't make sense. But man, U.S.E.S. stinks on the East Coast of time zone. They struggled at Rutgers. And if you struggle the way you did at Rutgers, you will lose at Penn State.

And I know that it's whiteout conditions. I don't know how intense this specific whiteout is going to be. I'm sure it'll be loud and people will go. But it's not a, do people in state college view, this is a huge game with the way things have. gone so far. I mean, like, there's seasons already in the dumps. So, you know, I guess they could maybe convince themselves that they could turn it around and win the game and beat USC that they can get their season back on track and still have a chance at being 10 and 2, you know, I guess there's

always hope when you're a fan of a crazy, passionate fan base of a huge team. Like, I get that. I just cannot get that play out of my head from the USC Washington game. You know the play I'm talking about. The fourth, oh, the one to the tight end. the throat of the tight end running down the field and you know they're trying to they two hand touched him they thought he was down yeah playing flag football out there like that is just bad also also one wrinkle here danton lynn penn state defensive coordinator was u s pt's defensive coordinator last year there is the matter of him probably understanding and knowing u ssss he's offense very well from having seen it at practice for two years in a row and

And he doesn't know this exact personnel, but it is something to think about it. And like, you know, like when Kentucky played at Texas A&M, I don't know how much Jay Bateman, Kentucky's defensive coordinator, being on A&M staff, allowed him to understand their offense and the limitations of Marcel Reed. But I think it didn't hurt to know. Yeah. The other question, too, is like, do you think it's possible? that were just too down on them now? On USC or Penn State. Like, are we overreacted to the drama of the Oregon game?

No, I don't think we're too down on them. I just, but maybe they are what they were last year. And if they are what they were last year, they'll win this game. And they'll lose to Indiana and Ohio State. Like, that's the thing. We keep changing the grading scale on USC. Yeah. The grading scale on USC is, are they a playoff team or not?

not. And if they're not a playoff team, they've failed. That's, that's okay. That, like, that, that's probably the fairest way to, to do it. But that doesn't mean they can't win this game. That means they'll struggle against Indiana and Ohio State. It doesn't mean they're, they're going to struggle against Penn State. Now, is Trent Mosley going to play in this game? He was doubtful for the Washington game. You know, we'll have to keep an eye on the availability report there because that's one of those if he's back. That's a lot more for Penn State to deal with. Mark Bowman was out for the, Washington game, presumably, hopefully they get him back.

That makes a difference. So I don't know. That's the exact way to frame this, Andy. Just because they're not reaching their personal goals of being a playoff team potentially doesn't mean that they're awful. Like that's or that they're incapable of beating the Penn State team that just gave a 400 yards rushing because I know one thing's for sure. I know Northwestern's much better.

But are we sure that Northwestern's better than USC? like would you make that point? Do you think you with that? And I know that the game is on the East Coast and not in a brand new stadium and the circumstances of every game is different. But do you think Northwestern is a better all around football team from a talent perspective than USC is? Do you think USC will be then within six points of Indiana?

I don't know. Probably not. Because Northwestern was. So. Yeah. That's that's this. But I think we're also, it's the same thing with Penn State. Yeah.

They choked away a 17, nothing lead against Wisconsin and lost. They then got destroyed by Northwestern. So we are really down on them too. Yeah. Which one of these teams is showing us what they really are? I think maybe they both are. I think they both are. I'm struggling between I think USC is going to win

and listening to what the market is telling us. That's where I'm at right now. Like, do you just, because like I ignored, what the market was telling us with the Ole Miss Florida game, chose Ole Miss, and didn't even have a chance to cover that game. And I think that, like, we might be in a position where we're headed down a similar type scenario.

And if that happens, our Saturday night is going to be quite hectic. You know what? I'm going to ignore the market again. I'm going to go USC. I think even if USC's eight and four or nine and three, which is terrible for them, that doesn't mean that they're not good enough to win the game on the road in state college.

I might be looking up in the second quarter and going, they can't play football in the Eastern time zone. Why did I do this? Like, I know that I might be in that position. I hate this pick. I would never play it in real life. I guess I would if it was the only game on. But I know you're going to pick Penn State and it's fine.

You're probably going to win. Give me USC dreadfully. I'm going to pick the spot. picking the game, I'm picking the spot. Yeah. I'll take Penn State to cover. I'm like you. I have no confidence in this. It is spot over game. It is nothing we've seen so far matters. This has a life of its own. And it is USC on the East Coast. Penn State can't be any worse than they were last Friday night. USC might be worse than we've seen them play. Like if they, if they play, if they Again, if they play the way they played against Rutgers and not the way they played against Oregon and not the way they played against Washington, they will lose this game.

If they play the way they played against Oregon and Washington, I think they probably win this game. So I don't know. But the market is trying to tell us something. I didn't listen when Ole Miss came to Gainesville. I'm going to listen now. We'll see. One of us is going to be wrong. Really praying it's you.

Really praying it's you. All right, Ari. One more game. Georgia headed to Alabama. Alabama is a one and a half point favorite at home. I'm currently in Athens, Georgia. I'll be in Tuscaloosa tomorrow. I'm going to talk to some Georgia players today, talk to Alabama players tomorrow. I am so excited about this game. This is what we've been waiting to see because we've seen Alabama really blossom before our eyes with Keel and Russell. And he looks incredible. Georgia has looked like a. better version of the Georgia team we've seen the last two years that won the SEC but then lost in the semis in the playoff. But again, the competition level has not been that great. We thought Oklahoma going into the season that that would be a great test for Georgia. It turned out it wasn't. So this becomes the first real test for the Bulldogs. And it might be against a true national title contender. So what do we think happens here when the mega powers collide? You know, the quarterback situation is where we should start because everyone's fired up and rightfully so about Keel and Russell.

I just want to make a point that Gunner Stockton has been highly efficient, is very underrated and should be in the Heisman conversation. I also want to point out that Alabama has had a tendency of winning this game in the regular season. The game is at Bama. I understand the tendency to want to stick with the gut of like what has happened recently. third of all, I'm just happy that we get a vintage. And by vintage, I mean 2010's peak-ish Georgia-Alabama game. And I'm super excited for it. I'm happy it's a night game.

I'm happy the entire country is going to be watching it. I think that we have this viewpoint that Texas, Georgia and Bam are the three best teams in the conference or the teams that have the most inside track to the CFP and beyond. I think whoever wins this game is going to be the number one team in the country on Monday. So I don't know where you're at with it. I think it's a very hard game to pick. I think both teams are very good. And it's kind of a f-around and find-out scenario here.

I think we're going to find out a ton about both teams. But both teams should, you could pick both teams and have a really good reason for it. And that's why the markets have told us the spreads one and a half. Well, and the question I have is, are George's receivers? really better. Like Craig Dandridge, the freshman, uh, leads them in receiving yards with only nine catches,

but, but 177 yards. They really spread the ball around. Like, uh, Taylor 12 catches 176 yards. Covey White Hilton 10 catches for 135 yards. Chauncey Bowers,

10 catches for 132. Like they've not played anybody that it has challenged them. So they haven't had to figure out who's the guy they go to in crunch time. Like that's going to be an interesting situation when they are in a tight game. who do they go to? Who does Gunner Stockton look to? It's been somebody's open. Let's just hit him.

Now, we think Nate Frazier is, you know, was held to two carries in the Vandy game because they didn't really need him. He didn't play against Oklahoma. They wanted to be as healthy as possible for Alabama. A healthy Nate Frazier makes a big difference for Georgia, too. And I think these two offensive lines are fascinating because Georgia could have the best offensive line in the country. They built it kind of the old-fashioned way through high school recruiting.

You know, you've got veterans like Ernest Green and Drew Bobo, but then you have a true freshman Zakiahelton starting. You have a true sophomore in Juan Gaston starting. They are loaded, just pros across the front. Alabama revamped its offensive line in the offseason. They changed offensive line coaches. They went out in the portal and got some players and mixed them in with guys that they already had on the roster.

They're better so far. They are actually running the ball so far, but they have not played anybody like this up front. They've not played a defense like this. So can Alabama run the ball against Georgia? Because the last time these two teams played was in Atlanta. And Alabama at that point had ceased to become a functional running team. And a Ty Simpson was banged up and couldn't run the ball.

And it was just an absolute slaughter where Alabama couldn't do anything offensively. Now, here's the thing. even if Alabama's backs struggle, even if Georgia's defensive front makes it where the line can't open holes, Keel and Russell still provides danger in the run game for Alabama. He can still slip away. And you've seen these defenses, these Nick Sabin, Kirby smart defenses, you've seen when they've had trouble with quarterbacks who are really good at moving around.

Yeah. I'm like really struggling here. and I don't think that you shouldn't be because it's just a great game. I feel like Alabama might be semi more battle tested so far

and they're at home. And they're at home. So that's where I'm leaning but I hate it. It's going to be hard either way. Like either one of us can make a very compelling case. for either one of these teams to win this game.

It is, it's very easy. Like the, the path for Georgia to win is they control the game on the ground. Gunner Stockton is efficient. And they just boa constrictor Alabama because they don't let Keelan Russell get out of the pocket and keep drives alive. And so they win, you know, they win the game 2110. But I don't, I'm not sure that's the game we're going to see. I think it's more likely we're going to see a pretty high scoring game. like a 35, 31, 38, 35 kind of game.

But I actually think Georgia is equipped to play in a game like this now. And look, you know, we saw Alabama against Florida State. We saw Alabama when Cabrero Taylor was in the game against Mississippi State. You can move the ball on them when you have enough talent. So I think we're going to see Georgia score. The Georgia defense is sort of the question here. And somebody slow down Keelon Russell. And I don't know that the answer to that maybe no.

The answer to that may be no, no one can slow him down. And we're going to find that out Saturday. Yeah. So the thing that scares me is like the compelling case that you wrote for me was that Georgia controls the game on the ground. They're able to corral, you know, Alabama's offense. And they win a relatively low scoring game. Like that's not the game that I'm expecting.

But I think Georgia can win a high scoring game too, though. But I think that Georgia winning a high-scoring game is something that we have to see when they're playing a team like this. Like, I don't think you can make that assumption without actually seeing it first. Now, I've been all about Gunner Stockton. I have 15 thoughts on Monday on-on-three every week in the last two weeks, including today. I have written that Gunner-Stockton is underappreciated because he's not flashy. I think that he's a very good player. That said, if you go look at the stat sheet of Georgia's receivers, it's longer than war in peace.

and there's no guy that, like, you know for sure is going to take over in a game. On the other hand, I think we already know definitively that Keel and Russell was a star. Nobody's had to. Yeah, nobody's had to takeover. And we know Ryan Coleman Williams is that guy for Alabama. You can say, I think Georgia can exist in a high-scoring game

all you want. That's your prerogative, and you might be right about it. You can't say I know it yet. And that's why I'm picking Alabama. It's not that I'm going to be right, but I am more confident in what I know about Alabama going into this game that I am for sure. I have all my thoughts on Georgia.

I think Georgia's offense is much better. I think they've looked very good through the first five games of the season. They've embarrassed everybody they've played. They've been utterly dominant. We have not seen them do that yet against an Alabama type team. Now we might, and you might be right, that thought process might be sure. But in a game where I don't know who's going to win,

I'm going to lean on what I know. And I think I know more about Alabama at this point than I do about Georgia. So I'm going to go with what's familiar. I'm going to lean on the group that I think can lean on some people. I went into this season thinking Georgia's offensive line might be the best in the country. Nothing I've seen suggests that's wrong. This is the time for them to shine. This is the time for them to show why they are the best in the country.

why they're going to be high draft picks, why this can be different, why Georgia can go farther than they've gone the last couple of years. This is the chance to show that. Give me the dogs. Well, I can't wait. This will be so much fun.

I'm super excited to watch it with you, bud. Oh, yeah. Yeah, we'll be in Gainesville together. We're going to that Florida, South Carolina game. We got the Jack and Coke event before. And yeah, Ari and I will be watching Georgia, Alabama in prime time together. We will be live right after that game, 11.30 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday night, breaking it all down.

One of us will be right. One of us will be wrong. And, of course, I think I'll be right. Maybe. Maybe. We'll talk to you tomorrow.