Andy & Ari On3 - Picking Ohio State-Oregon, Oklahoma-Texas, Ole Miss-LSU, Penn State-USC and MORE!

Episode Date: October 7, 2024

Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11. Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker, try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. Thank you to Gametime for sponsoring today's episode! Planning your college football travel for this season? Gametime has tickets to every game. (And every concert and comedy show.) Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES(0:00-5:51) Intro - Cal vs Miami Discussion(5:52-13:55) South Carolina at Alabama(13:56-23:26) Texas vs Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry(23:26-24:28) Gametime(24:29-33:46) Iowa State at West Virginia(33:47-38:05) Florida at Tennessee(38:06-39:31) Download PrizePicks(39:32-48:14) Ole Miss at LSU(48:15-53:40) Washington at Iowa(53:41-59:15) Penn State at USC(59:16-1:09:51) Ohio State at Oregon(1:09:52-1:15:43) Kansas State at Colorado(1:15:44-1:20:35) Arizona at BYU(1:20:36-1:21:04) Conclusion; See you tomorrow! Happy Monday! Andy and Ari are picking the games of week seven, and wow is this slate LOADED… South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama (-21.5, O/U: 51.5) No. 1 Texas vs No. 18 Oklahoma (+14.5, O/U: 51.5) No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon (+3.5, O/U: 51.5) No. 11 Iowa State at West Virginia (+3.5, O/U: 51.5) No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU (+3.5, O/U: 64.5) Florida at No. 8 Tennessee (-15.5, O/U: 54.5) Washington at Iowa (-2.5, O/U: 40.5) No. 4 Penn State at USC (+4.5, O/U: 49.5) No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (+5.5, O/U: 56.5) Arizona at No. 14 BYU (-3.5, O/U: 50.5)Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/bTvQpSh2DTkHosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey

Welcome to Andy and Ari on three presented by Wendy's. It is a big, big day. It is a pick show. We have many, many games to pick Ari. This is the weekend we were pointing to. We said last weekend, watch out because you never know what might happen. But this weekend is the one where stuff is going to happen no matter what. The question is, could it ever top last weekend? I saw people talking about how this past Saturday they felt was the best Saturday of all time.

And I think that we feel that way three times a year. Yeah, yeah. It might be a recency bias, but I do think that whenever you have Alabama losing to Vanderbilt as the centerpiece of your debate, you might have something there. So I don't know. One of these days, I'll actually go back and look at the craziest chaotic Saturdays of all time to see if we could actually come up with an answer to which one that actually is.

But I wouldn't be shocked if what we saw on Saturday ranked somewhere in the top 10. I mean, especially if Miami would have lost at 2 in the morning to cap the day off. That would have been something. We were all set. We were all set to do a show, and Miami pulled it out. And listen, I know that everybody thinks the refs just gave them the game.

I get it. I watched it. I was not sure on the targeting, non-targeting situation. But also, they were 25 points down and came back. Like, Cal could have made a stop at some point. That would have probably done it. You would have gotten another show out of that. The Miami conspiracy thing was kind of funny to me.

But we didn't talk about Miami because it happened after our podcast was over, and we haven't spoken together on on uh podcast form since but did you want to take two minutes to talk about the Miami game and do you want to take two minutes to talk about that targeting call at the end well we yeah and and we can take two minutes to you talk about Miami using blow the whistle as the uh as the soundtrack to the video uh which everybody thinks is a nod to the referees it's not they're making fun like so they went to the east bay and beat a team from the east bay and they used the east bay's most legendary rapper too short to soundtrack that it would be like someone going to miami beating miami and

using don't stop get it get it to soundtrack their video but i think the fact that the song is called blow the whistle is also a nice touch don't you think oh it is it is everybody thinks the refs are in for miami that it's an acc conspiracy like they're hitting the buffalo wild wings button over and over again to keep them undefeated i don't necessarily think that's true it certainly looked like a target like it was targeting he's a Mendoza was a runner so that does limit it a little bit what could be targeting but it did look like crown of the head hit him in the helmet and that would have kept the the drive going and and would have allowed Cal to run out the clock I just don't think I had it in me to watch a team lose on a targeting penalty two nights in a row.

After the way that UNLV lost the game on Friday night, I am happy that Miami didn't lose that way because I think this targeting discussion is one that we've had 100 times and it's long and drawn out. Obviously, the safety is paramount of these players. But you have a quarterback with the game on the line running for a first down that would essentially end the game. And you have a defender running full speed at that person to stop it from happening. His tackle is going to decide whether or not Miami wins the game. And when you're a quarterback and you expose yourself and you don't slide, the defenders are going to try to hit you really hard. And I think that by the letter of the law, it probably was targeting, right, Andy? He did put his head down.

Our buddy Alex Kirshner did a whole video on how it's not targeting. So that's the problem, too, is you can have reasonable people who read the same rule and watch the same video and come away with different takes on it alex is really smart do you have the five second clip notes because i didn't see that video he basically just broke it down and explained why it wouldn't be because the the crown of the actual crown of the helmet area is very small so okay that's yeah because it looked like he put his head down but it didn't look like he was the crown of the actual crown of the helmet area is very small. So, okay. That's because it looked like he put his head down,

but it didn't look like he was spearing him. And also to, you know, the level of, of where you're hitting somebody changes in the, in a smack, like in a snap of a finger, like you might be trying to hit somebody.

And if they're higher or lower than you anticipate in the last second, your head placement is going to be different. So like for me, I thought it was a really wasn't. It felt just that they made Cal punt the ball and went out and had a chance to go win the game in a fair and normal manner. Well, look, it doesn't matter. People are going to believe what they're going to believe. They're always going to believe there's a conspiracy theory because it happened two weeks in a row

where an officiating decision helped Miami win the game. So you're going to get that no matter what. Miami could just not play so many close games. They could start blowing teams out again and then it wouldn't be a problem. So they're going to have to decide if they want to do that. But we will table this discussion for now till we see miami again we we have some games to pick and oh boy ari this is going to be a really interesting week i'm going to start with the one that i actually think now is the most difficult one to pick because I think we have to decide whether we want to change our mindsets on this certain team. I know Vegas is going to be really hard to break out of their mindset with this certain team. The line tells you that right now, South Carolina at Alabama,

Alabama is a 21 and a half point favorite, 21 and.5 point favorite. 21.5 point favorite. We just saw Alabama lose to Vanderbilt. They are a 21.5 point favorite. Do we have faith in them to just turn around and blow out an SEC team that got blown out last week, but has blown out other teams of quality in the past. I understand why you just pronounced Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt like that, because you wanted to emphasize who Alabama lost to.

But I also feel like pronouncing it that way is a way of making it feel like Vanderbilt is who are they supposed to used to be, right? Like, you know, it's crazy to say out loud but like is this Vanderbilt team the Vanderbilt from three years ago and I'm going to ask you a question back are you 100 certain that South Carolina is better than Vanderbilt this year not 100 but I did watch South Carolina whip Kentucky and I did watch Kentucky beat Ole Miss and I did watch Kentucky beat Ole Miss and I watched Kentucky play really well against Georgia.

So I'm not convinced South Carolina sucks because they lost to Ole Miss in embarrassing fashion. I don't think that they stink, but I don't think Vanderbilt stinks either. I think Vanderbilt has a chance to win other games this year. That might turn. I agree with you, but let's let Vanderbilt lost to Georgia state.

So let's, they did. They did. How great Vandy is. Georgia State's better than Bama. I just wanted to put that on record. Hey. So this is exactly the same kind of mistake that one of us made last week when we reacted to the Ole Miss-Kentucky game

and then thought that this South Carolina team was going to give them trouble. I think from a week-to-week standpoint, it's easy to get caught up, and we all make these mistakes. I can't tell you how many times I've bet one way, then changed my mind the next week and lost both on opposite sides. It happens all the time. It's like how you said that Georgia would cover against Auburn, and they didn't. Right, exactly.

It's hard to get one week out of your head because that's what you think. But really there's no rhyme or reason why these games go the way that they go from a week to week basis. So I think that, you know, if Alabama were to play Vanderbilt again later in the season, I would anticipate that their spread would probably be similar to that. Like, I don't think that the math changes that drastically as a result of this. Ari, Ari, Bama-Vanderbilt playoff game not off the table right now. Not off the table.

Vandy has two losses, and one is to Georgia State. They also have – yeah, if they run the – well, yeah, let me tell you this. I don't think it matters if you go 0-4 in non-conference. If you run the table and win the SEC, you're probably going to get in, right? Like, can we just say, like, every single non-conference game from an SEC team is effectively useless because you have the chance to win the SEC? Like, is that fair?

But I also – That's fair, yeah. But that's – Vanderbilt has already lost an SEC game so you know they'd have to run the table if they did I think they would get in honestly I do I think I don't even think it would be a debate Vandy Texas is on schedule too let's not what would you do if Vandy beat Texas I mean we would do a video yeah it would do numbers. I guess the answer to that question would be is we would do a video. But, yeah, so I don't know that I'm going to. The thing that is hard about this game, Andy,

is the thing that I've said to you, and you've heard me say it five times, so I'm going to say it six, is that I don't think that Alabama lost or Vanderbilt in a fluky way. So that's the thing that's hard to shake, right? Like if you lose a game where you turn the ball over four times and have a bunch of dumb penalties and just look like you're sleepwalking and, you know, have a hangover from the Georgia win, like I understand, like it's easier to excuse that.

What's not easier to excuse is the fact that Vanderbilt was on the same field in a high-powered back-and-forth game with Alabama for four quarters and ended up winning because they went out and took it. So, like, that, to me, I can't get that out of my head. And I am genuinely wondering, and I think that it is important to, you know, throw it out there for the people on the show that want to hear this, is, like, are we in a place where the SEC might not be as good as we think it is? Are the two flagship programs in this conference this year really good, but not elite,

not great? We're going to find out a lot about Alabama and Georgia in the rest of the year. And I think if the answer is that they are elite and they are great, and they both end the year with one or two losses and make the playoff or win the national title, that would be the least surprising thing on the face of the earth. But I don't think that we can 100% remove ourselves or pull back from the notion that maybe Alabama and Georgia are the third or second best teams or third and fourth best teams in the SEC this year. Well, you just made all the SEC haters very happy.

The great news about this is there will be teams from the SEC that will get to play the teams from the other teams in the playoff, and we'll get our answer. We'll know whether they were overrated or not. Do you think it's worth exploring whether or not Georgia and Alabama are the third, fourth, or fourth and fifth best teams in the conference that year? We can explore it when they play the other teams. We'll know.

But do you think it's crazy to think that right now, that it's possible that that's real? It's possible. But I would say that the last 20 years of history, every NFL draft, like, probably tell you that's not true. But, I mean, what do I know? Yeah, I mean, listen.

I used to be that person every day of every season for the last 15 years of my life. And last year I was humiliated. So I don't know if I'm just gun shy. I understand Alabama and Georgia have better players than everybody else in the conference. But, you know, we'll see about the ability to get through it. I don't think they have that many more better players than everybody else in the conference. And that is why this is all happening. So, like, South Carolina has a decent number

of NFL players as well. They are not as deep as Alabama, but Alabama is not as deep as Alabama has been. And that's why Alabama isn't an automatic just destroy everybody in its path team. This is three touchdowns. It is more than three touchdowns. Are you willing to say Alabama is going to just annihilate South Carolina in this game? I am, yeah. I think that

Alabama is going to be right back in the top three of the polls in less than a month. All right. I will also say Alabama is bouncing back in this game. I think they're going to cover as well. The Feinbaum calls, if they don't, are going to be just off the charts insane. We may have to listen to Feinbaum today and rank the calls. Yeah, I think we should do that either way for our own personal entertainment.

But if they're really good, maybe we'll record a few and play them here. Yeah, so we're both taking Alabama to cover here. We might have just fallen into a trap, but I do think they're going to bounce back. I actually still think they're a very good team. I think they may be subject a little more to the ups and downs of the season, but this is a time when they would be up, not a time when they would be down. So let us move on, Ari, to the game you and I will be attending at the Texas State Fair in the Cotton Bowl. Number one, Texas versus Oklahomaoma this is the first time texas has come into the game

ranked number one since 1984 wow that's remember that the vince young texas team that won the national title in 2005 was not ranked number one the during the entire season because usc was number one wire and wire until Texas beat them. And this is a huge game. And as we've discussed, a game where the favorite does not always perform the way you think they will. And I'll go back to last year. Was Texas a better overall team last season than Oklahoma? I'd say yes. Who won the game? Oklahoma did.

I am so excited for this one. Yeah. So here's the actual thing about this game that I think is going to decide whether or not Oklahoma has a chance to win in the second half or, or covers. Um, I ruffled a lot of Oklahoma feathers a few weeks ago by, you know, revisiting in the middle of the last game they played against Auburn whether or not the quarterback move was the right move because I thought Michael Hawkins Jr. looked like he wasn't ready to pass yet. And people have been sending me the long bomb that he threw that helped them win the game at the end of the game. If Michael Hawkins Jr. is a serviceable passer, I think Oklahoma has a chance to hang in this thing. If Texas is able to shut down Oklahoma's offense,

and this isn't to say that Michael Hawkins Jr. can't throw or won't be able to throw eventually. His high school tape showed that he can do it. He has made some good throws. His receivers were injured in that Auburn game it. He has made some good throws. His receivers were injured in that Auburn game. There are a lot of reasons why it could have looked the way that it did. But Oklahoma has to find functional, balanced offense against one of the best defenses in the country in order to hang with them. And I still think that in a world where they have changed their quarterback, they have not really been able to rely on experience in that position,

regardless of who is playing. This is a pretty big-time atmosphere where legends are made and teams get exposed for their weaknesses. And if that's a weakness, and what I saw against Auburn happens again, Oklahoma is going to get blown out. They're not going to be in a position where they can hit their first big play in the air and midway through the fourth quarter and win. I just don't think this game is going to be a blowout because the history of

this game says it's not usually a blood. The blowout a couple of years ago was when Oklahoma did not have a functional quarterback. Yeah, they couldn't, they could not throw a forward pass in the game, right? They could, they would have been better off running wildcat the entire game. That is not this case. Hawkins can operate that offense pretty well. It looks like they may be getting some help back at receiver.

So this might be the best version of the Oklahoma offense that we've seen since before the Tennessee game. What are you anticipating out of Hawkins? Do you think he's going to have a great game? I don't know if he's going to have a great game, but let's say he gets Deion Burks back. He has a little bit more to throw to, and they can get the running game going a little bit. Because look, what happened in this game last year?

Dylan Gabriel killed Texas with his legs like that that is what really turned the game yeah I mean made the nice throw to Nick Anderson there but he was killing them with his legs so has Texas had to play a quarterback like that this season I realize they contain general booty which that one's actually looking better and better every week because ULM just beat James Madison. But this is probably the most athletic QB that Texas has seen all year. So can that change the math a little bit? Listen, I'm not going to take the Oklahoma money line here. I think I'm not crazy.

But if you're going to give me more than two touchdowns, yeah, I'll take, I'll take Oklahoma and feel pretty safe about that. Yeah. I'm going to go the other way on this. I think that if you just look at the way that these rosters are constructed, um, the issues that Oklahoma is having to overcome right now, offensively, I just don't know that I see a route to being able to compete with a team that I think is probably the favorite or one of the top three favorites without question to win the national title this year. Now, I understand the rivalry game. I know things go haywire.

It happens. Ari, Vanderbilt just beat Alabama, for God's sake. None of this, whatever you think makes sense doesn't actually make sense. But I'm not going to pick Oklahoma to keep it close because weird things happen. If weird things happen, I'm supposed to be surprised. But weird things happen if weird things happen I'm supposed to be surprised but weird things happen this game all the time no I know I know but like I I'm supposed to just use what I the two teams that are playing right like I don't know how much

if there's an equation and again bad mouth podcast but there's equation of how to pick a game what percentage of the uh you know, thought process goes to, well, this is a weird game sometimes. Like how much of that can you have? Like, that's not going to be the reason I pick a team to win or lose or cover or not. Like if it happens,

then it'll be crazy. And we'll talk about it. But like Texas is better than Oklahoma everywhere, everywhere. And so, and the problem is in this game, the better team doesn't always win. I know, but last year, the better team doesn't always win. I know.

Last year, the better team didn't win. I'm going to look at what the teams are or who the teams are and choose from that. And if some weird Red River pixie dust gets thrown onto the game and people's minds start melting, then we'll talk about it. But I'm looking at the two teams here, and I see a spread that is just for the difference. And I'm not 100% bought in on

the fact that because Michael Hawkins hit a 60-yard pass to beat Auburn in the third quarter that they're going to be able to move the ball on him like that's not enough for me so prove me wrong I'll lovingly come on to the show I'll even write a column from the game on Saturday if Oklahoma comes out and Hawkins is awesome we're gonna going to make a bet. Do we need to make a bet on this? I mean, I already owe you a thousand dollars. Like what are you going to take? Not yet. I mean, if USC loses this weekend, probably.

Buddy, don't patronize me. You've had the money in your pocket for two years now. Just take it from me already. I mean, it's. Do we need to make a bet on this game? All right, chat. Homework assignment. You have three days

to come up with this. We'll make a determination on Thursday's show what it's going to be. I'm going to take OU to cover. Ari is going to take Texas to cover. Producer River has an idea of do some nasty fried food

at the fair. There are no nasty fried foods at the fair. They all taste delicious. That's not how you pay off a bet. You don't get to pay it off with eating something delicious. Oh, man. Ari, Texas did

not win by 15 points. You have to eat deep fried Oreos on the way home. Oh, no. Terrible. If that's the bet, I'm going to be the biggest Texas fan in the world. I'm going to be the biggest Texas fan in the world. I'm going to be like, pour it on, boys. The bet should be you can't eat any fair food.

If you lose, you're not allowed to eat any of it. Oh, here we go. Scott's got it. Ari has to eat Tex-Mex for lunch and dinner for a week. I would die. I would die. You know what? We had fajitas.

That's it. I got it. I got it. We'll have to figure out what happens if you win. If I win, you are taking me to Papacito's on Sunday. God, no! No! Yes! No. There's a line too far. Okay, that's fine.

You are taking me to... If Oklahoma covers this spread, you are taking me to Papacito's on Sunday. You gotta buy me lunch first that's fine i'd be happy to do that and also too uh just so you know and i don't talk about my wife a lot on the show maybe i do i don't know but she just sent me a text because she knows that we're on the show right now and she said i know you're talking to andy and sometimes you guys talk about food on your show i would love to make you guys an awesome reservation somewhere Friday night.

Let me know when you're done. Well, I won't be here Friday. I will be in Jacksonville watching high school football on Friday, and I will arrive in the morning on Saturday. Oh, you're arriving Saturday morning. For some reason, I thought you were here Friday night. No, no, no. Listen, we'll find breakfast tacos probably immediately.

That might be the first order business. Scott says, Andy, while you're in town, I'll take you to a better place. The point of this is Ari hates papasitos and I love it. And I just want to make him suffer. This is what drives me nuts about this is that I do not hate papasitos. I just think it's like chilies and I don't understand why people talk about it. Like it's like, well,

I understand that you're going to be handing them some of your hard earned cash after I, and that's fine. I'll go there and have a nice meal. Like, but it's just of all the places we could go here. Like you're wasting a meal. That's,

that's my thought. Oh, it's not a waste for me. Huh? Yeah. So excited. So I mean, Chili's not a waste for me. Huh? Yeah. So excited. So excited. I mean, Chili's inquired.

To eat papasitos. And when she comes or he comes with the bill, I'm like, just give it to that guy. I mean, the good news will probably be like $14 because it's cheap. Thank you. Oh, no. I get the shrimp brochette. It's the most expensive thing on the menu. Okay.

Might get two. Might get one shrimp bro shed. It's the most expensive thing on the menu. Okay. Might get two. Might get one to take home. Ari, if somebody wants to go to the Red River rivalry, they can. Or if they want to go to Ohio State and Oregon, or they want to go to Ole Miss and LSU, or they want to go to Penn State and USC, go to GameTime, download the app, use the GT Picks feature to find the best deal relative

to the market. Now look, these are very hot tickets, but you will get the best deal possible on game time. All these games have been sold out forever. Game time has your ticket. You can look at exactly where you'd be sitting in the stadium. You can see your vantage point, make your decision about what ticket you're going to buy there. And if you use the code staples, you get $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Of course, go to game time, download the app. It's so easy. You just type in your event, pick your ticket, couple more taps. Tickets are yours. Best tickets. Last minute. Doesn't matter. Go to Game Time, use that code STAPLES. $20 off your first purchase.

Terms apply. All right, we got more games to pick. We got to keep going. Let's move to the conference that Texas and Oklahoma used to be in. Because the Big 12, as we predicted, is wild and is only going to get wilder. We are going to see a matchup of two teams that are undefeated in Big 12 play.

One of them, though, has two out-of-conference losses, but that may not matter. Iowa State headed to West Virginia. Iowa State is undefeated. West Virginia has lost to Penn State and Pitt, but neither of those teams are in the Big 12. West Virginia is perfect in Big 12 play so far, coming off a blowout win against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Ari, can the Cyclones stay undefeated?

They are three and a half point favorites in Morgantown. I know that shows are supposed to have structure and that we're supposed to keep it moving. I just want to put that here for you. Okay. Thank you, Benjamin. I want to put this one here for me. Okay. So now we're here.

We have arrived at the three and a half point Big 12 spread hell. Where every game is. Isn't that going to be Big 12 spread from now on? Even if they look them up, if it's a game between two average to above average teams

in the Big 12, the spread's three and a half, and one team is probably just going to win outright uh that's the dog i like listen i had a really hard time this week we did some some videos that i encourage you guys to go watch about our bracketology and bubble watch uh exercises over the weekend they're on our youtube channel right now if you haven't seen i have a really hard time with iowa state on one hand, they have not lost this year and they have looked really good and they're coming off of a pretty impressive blowout win. So on the other hand, I have a hard time projecting

out in the Big 12 because I know they're all going to lose to each other, and they're going to lose games like this. And I don't know if Iowa State's time is coming. If you look at Iowa State's schedule right now, a team that I included in my top 10 this week because I do think that at this point in the season, if you're undefeated, you deserve that recognition, along with BYU. I have no idea whether their time is going to come, but if you look at their schedule,

they don't play a team that they cannot beat at all for the rest of the year. And they don't play a team that they have a 50-50 chance of losing to until they play Utah and Kansas State to close out their year, right? I think they're playing a team that have a 50-50 chance of losing to Saturday in Morgantown. Then take three and a half. Then you answered your question. Because if it's 50-50, then you get three and a half points.

It's a pretty good thing. A team that averages five yards a carry. Yeah, I'm scared of that team. Yeah, well, West Virginia, too, has been pretty disappointing. I think that a lot of people thought that this team was going to be in a position to potentially be in this hodgepodge of big 12. It is. They are undefeated in big 12 play.

They are not fun. No, I know what I'm saying. Having lost to Penn state the way they did in at Pitt, the way it doesn't matter. It doesn't affect. I know. I understand how conference rankings work.

I get it. What I'm saying is, is that people are kind of out on this team as a potential Big 12 champion as a result of what happened. I'm not saying that they're out of it mathematically. So West Virginia is 2-0 in the Big 12 right now, and they are at home catching three and a half points against a team that I just ranked in the top 10 of my thing. What I'm saying is Iowa State, you could make a case, should win every single game on their schedule, at least till their last two, that you go into it saying they should win.

Will they? I don't think they will. I think West Virginia is going to win the game outright. Wow. I didn't think we were going to agree with each other on this one. Yeah. Now I need to pick Iowa State. Well, I mean, like Iowa State got their flowers from me this week,

and I had a hard time doing it. I really did. But at a certain point, when it comes to the top 10, it has to be about what you've earned, and they've done that. So they deserve it. That does not mean that I'm 100% convinced that they are a team that is going to make the playoff this year. In fact, I even might regret a little bit,

including them in my bracketology bubble watch projection. I just don't think that it's the same thing with A&M. And I don't know if we're going to get to an A&M game. I think we are. But A&M is in your bracket projection. And the reason why is because if you look at their schedule, every game except Texas is a should win, kind of the same way that Iowa State is.

On the surface, every game is a win. We're going to get to a Texas A&M game because they don't play this weekend, by the way. Oh, perfect. And they play Mississippi State next weekend, so I doubt we're picking that one either. Winning each of these individual games on the surface should be a doable thing.

Winning all of them is incredibly difficult. You see what I'm saying? If you look at it as a whole... If Iowa State doesn't have to win all of them, they can probably get away with winning... I don't know. If you win the right seven in Big 12 play, then you probably get away with winning i don't know can you if you get away if you win the right seven in big 12 play then then you probably get away with it you're probably gonna have to win eight to be sure that

you're going to the big 12 title game so but if they go out they go out to morgantown this week andy and they put the screws to west virginia or win a pretty impressive game i'm picking them the rest of the way probably i think that would alter my perspective on who they are because they do, they did beat Iowa. And I think going on the road and playing in that rivalry game and the hell that you can be in and Kinnick is a very impressive win. So that's, that's good.

But other than that, there's no other tent pole on their schedule that makes you feel like, okay, we're, we're here, but maybe, you know, this is the once every five year cycle for Matt Campbell and they're going to be awesome this year. We'll see. But this, at this point,

the way that things typically go in this conference though, I think it just makes sense to lean with West Virginia because they run the ball very well. They have one of the best running back tandems in college football. Garrett green is somebody I think has a pretty high ceiling, even though I'm not sure that he's performed the way that he was wanted to in every game this year. I think that West Virginia has the pieces to do it and a fan base that was pretty upset to start the year, but is right back into the into the season because the Big 12 play their 2-0. Yeah, and it's crazy how much it like the game against Kansas was right on the edge there.

Like, they could have easily lost that game. And if they did, I don't know exactly how everything goes after that. But they won it. And so they're in it. And I think you're right. The reason I like West Virginia here, and you're taking money line. I'm going to take the points. I'm happy to take the points on it.

But I like their running game. Now we'll see if I can Iowa State make West Virginia one dimensional and make Garrett Green beat them with his arm. That would be very interesting because if they can do that, then they can win this game. But I am going to take West Virginia to cover, not the money line, but again, this is just, I'm so excited because we're going to get two or three games in the Big 12 like this every single week from here on out where we don't know who's going to win. It will affect the conference race,

and there was going to be just this emotional roller coaster. So love it, love it. Love it. Love it. Very excited. Andy, the thing I wanted to say, too, about West Virginia is that, and I think we covered it a little bit, but it was a pretty hectic weekend. When they lost at Pitt, that was an absolute meltdown. They were up by 10 with less than five minutes in the game, and they just blew it.

If they would have beaten Pitt, who I believe is undefeated, right, I think that they might be favored in this game I think the perspective of who they are and is completely different as a result of blowing that game yeah I think you may be right and you know it's it's interesting because it doesn't affect them ultimately it it's actually affecting like the way Penn State beat them in that weird game that had the heat, the long lightning delay is actually affecting how I view Penn State more than anything else. Like I'm giving Penn State more benefit of the doubt because of the way they beat West

Virginia. Cause I'm like, I think West Virginia is pretty good and they beat them in a pretty dynamic fashion. So that's, I think I'm probably still respecting West Virginia the right amount here, but Iowa State can earn everybody's respect by going to Morgantown and winning this game. And look, maybe from the outside,

you're going to look at it. Oh, they handed West Virginia their third loss. No, no, no. If they win this game, they're in a great position in the Big 12. Great position. All right, Ari, let us move back to the sec go to knoxville game that back in the 90s this used to be the de facto sec championship game it has not been for a long long time uh the vols have turned it around in terms of when this game's in Knoxville.

They still don't know how to win in Gainesville, but this game is in Knoxville. Tennessee is a 15 and a half point favorite against Florida. This is opened with Tennessee is a 16 and a half point favorite. And then folks bet it down one, but Tennessee coming off that loss to Arkansas where the offense did not look very good at all. Do we think they have a bounce back in the same way that Alabama has a bounce back? Well, you were at the Florida game on Saturday. I think that we know that UCF probably isn't very good. just around people that there seems to be some excitement or some rejuvenation in the attitude of the program and the players that are on the team? Do you think that they have fight in them

right now? I do think they have fight in them. I just don't know that in the styles make fights version of this, that their style is going to be very effective against Tennessee. Here's something that was going on in the Florida UCF game that will not be going on in the Florida Tennessee game. So Florida struggled, actually against Mississippi State, which runs the same offense as Tennessee, Florida struggled to get defensive calls in. And allegedly they worked for two weeks on this at practice. But if you watch the UCF game, they were still struggling to get defensive calls in. UCF was lined up and Florida defenders were looking at the sideline waiting for the call. Now UCF, for whatever reason,

like Gus Malzahn needs to explain this, just sat there. They're like, no, no, by all means, take your time getting ready. We'll wait. Tennessee won't wait. They'll just hand it to Dylan Sampson and he'll go for like eight or nine yards before anybody even notices. Like if Florida can't fix that, they will not stop Tennessee at all. And Tennessee might not throw like Tennessee might just run the whole time. So that's the part that, that worries me for Florida in this game. Like the fact that they worked on that for two weeks, they still didn't get it right. And then you get this false sense of security because UCF didn't take advantage of it, that they can suddenly stop that sort of offense.

And obviously, they're different offenses. Gus Malzahn used to be an up-tempo coach. He's not really an up-tempo coach now. But Josh Heupel certainly to be an up-tempo coach. He's not really an up-tempo coach now, but Josh Heupel certainly is still an up-tempo coach. And then the other thing is UCF has no pass rush whatsoever and Tennessee has James Spears. So that's the other part is Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway are probably going to be getting chased quite a bit more than they were against UCF. Yeah. I'm just disappointed in Tennessee because I had higher hopes than what we saw on Saturday.

And I do think that we do have to have a discussion about whether or not this offense is explosive enough to win at the level that I thought they could win at two weeks ago. This is the type of game that Tennessee, if they are a legit national championship contender, or at least a team that can win a playoff game or two this year, wins easily at home. Yeah.

I think Tennessee is going to be fine here because I just don't think Florida's personnel match up very well with Tennessee's personnel. And it's not, it's not even like Tennessee doesn't have to be coming off this loss and need the bounce back for this. This is just a bad matchup for Florida, I think. So we will find out what happens, but if Florida can't get lined up, like they couldn't get lined up against UCF and couldn't get lined up against Mississippi state, it is going to get ugly because Tennessee is just going to run the play. Now, Florida fixes that.

Maybe we have a little bit different game. Maybe we have a little bit closer game. But I am going to take Tennessee to cover here just because, again, I don't think the styles are real compatible. Yeah, I'm on Tennessee here, too. All right. You know what I'm on? Prize picks. All right. You know what I'm on? Prize picks.

America's greatest daily fantasy game. Download the app. Use the code STAPLES. Play $5. Get $50 instantly. Looking at the board for Monday night football tonight. We got a little Saints and the... Why am I blanking?

The Chiefs. Saints and the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes, of course, playing in this one. Ari, I was trying to decide what to do. Do I do a solidarity with my son's fantasy team prize picks play? Because he has Chris Olave and Travis Kelsey in this game. So do I do a more than receiving yards on Chris O olavi and travis kelsey just to support my son in his are you guys watching the game together always i mean it's the number one rule of of

playing these types of games you ride with your boys you know what i mean yeah all right so yeah so i'm gonna i'm gonna sprinkle in a little on travis kelsey and chris olavi more than their receiving yards totals uh both are in the the high 50s on the prize picks number. But that's how you play it. You pick at least two squares. The more squares you pick, the higher the potential payout. And you just play. They got NFL, college football, NBA season's about to start.

MLB playoffs are going on. They have eSports. You name it, they got it at PrizePix. Download the app, use the code Staples, play $5, get $50 instantly. All right, Ari, let us remain in the SEC. Let's go to Baton Rouge, a place that has been a house of horrors for the Ole Miss Rebels in recent years. Ole Miss is the favorite coming into this game though. We saw Ole Miss have a really nice bounce back in Columbia, South Carolina, but this game is the one we kind of circled when we said, oh, Ole Miss has a very manageable schedule, but for whatever reason,

they struggle in Baton Rouge. So if they can get through this, they're going to be okay. Do we think they can get through this? Can I ask you your general temperature on LSU's team this year? When you're doing bracketology and bubble watch when I'm doing it, I have to consider them a little bit more because I think that's more of the range that they're in than your range. But do you think this LSU team still has a pulse to be in the discussion? Because they're kind of living in the background right now a little bit right like for a team that's only lost once right like they are

they're not really at the forefront of the brain and I don't know if there's a second level there Harold Perkins being out for the year definitely hurts um but do you think this team has something to it that can get them back on the right? I mean, they win this game, then they're right back into the mix. But I just have just had them as kind of an afterthought in my head for some reason and I'm trying to figure out if that's stupid.

No, so I think if I were to sum up LSU and the way I feel about LSU right now, it would be this. Eh? Right. That it would be this. Eh? Right. That's pretty much it. Eh?

Like, they lost to USC. USC hadn't been great. They were getting trucked by South Carolina until Lenora Sellers got hurt. They ended up winning that game. That was a nice win. But look at what Ole Miss did when they went into South Carolina. So Blake Baker is the LSU defensive coordinator. We saw him in Missouri last year against this Ole Miss team,

and they had a shootout just like LSU and Ole Miss had a shootout last year. Blake Baker did that and gave up all those points with a much better set of defensive personnel last year than he has this game. Like, you know, he had, he had a first round edge rusher. He had two corners who are starting in the NFL right now. Uh, he had Tyron Hopper who's a tackling machine, a linebacker, like LSU's defensive personnel is not as good as Missouri's was last year and they got to play this offense which arguably has better pieces now than it had then so I don't know I it's it's the history and this is it's weird because I said we're talking about Oklahoma and Texas like the history of it matters the the way the rivalry works matters so Oklahoma or sorry Ole Miss hasn't won in Baton Rouge since 2008.

It was the Jevin Sneed quarterback, Houston Nut coach team that was really good, that actually had beaten the team that won the national title. They beat that Florida team that won the national title that same year. They have not won in Baton Rouge since, and they obviously play there every other year. And there have been games where Ole Miss should have been the better team and just could not beat them so I don't know it's going to be rocking in Baton Rouge it's going to be even more crazy if they lose like you're the postgame shows

are going to be amazing if Ole Miss comes in here and wins because the LSU fans at that point are going to be like uh-oh something's up maybe maybe the playoffs aren't happening for us so that's the part to watch here this is like this is desperation mode for LSU and desperation mode for Ole Miss like we're getting there quick for these two. If I look at what we've seen from Ole Miss this year, I don't know that LSU can control the tempo the way Kentucky can control the tempo. That's how Kentucky beat Ole Miss. They controlled tempo that entire game. They didn't let Ole Miss's offense on the field with any sort of regularity, and it got them completely out of sync. So beyond the first drive of the game, you didn't see what you're used to seeing from Ole Miss' offense.

Against South Carolina, Ole Miss capitalized on some mistakes, but the defense held up really well, and they didn't need it. And that may be what we've talked about with Ole Miss. Can you win a game in a different way? Maybe the South Carolina game was that kind of game because it wasn't like Ole Miss was moving the ball up and down the field on them. Once they capitalized on that, when Beamer went for the fake punt early in the game, Ole Miss stopped it and then made South Carolina pay immediately. They didn't just go up and down the field the rest of the game they scored some more points

and then they just sort of shut South Carolina down the rest of the way like if Ole Miss can win that way I I'm still pretty comfortable with Ole Miss making the playoff yeah well I don't know that I'm completely out on Ole Miss as a as a top 10 team right now you know uh i think that they had a bad game but when you think about the roster that they returned last year and what they added to it like in theory this is a team that should be better than lsu at this point and i understand the history i understand how hard it is to play there though regretfully i've never seen a game in death valley i would love to do that one day we're gonna make it happen i mean it is embarrassing that I've never seen a game in Death Valley. I would love to do that one day. We're going to make it happen. I mean, it is embarrassing

that I've never been there. I had an LSU fan friend text me and he said, when are we going to make Ari ascend? And what he means is bring Ari to a tailgate in Baton Rouge. We'll make it happen.

We have to do a Saturday where we just don't cover the game and just get hammered. Can we do that? Where I just write a column of, here's what it was like to experience Baton Rouge for the first time. I'll help edit it.

Maybe a little bit. Can you slur your words when you type them? Is that possible? I could write a pretty good column drunk, I bet. The show of us hammered just sitting outside an RV in Baton Rouge at the end of the night would be pretty good, I think. Or it could be terrible. We'll have to test market that one.

It's funny because this is the tailgating bowl, but anybody who's ever actually tailgated at Ole Miss and LSU knows that LSU is far superior. You can't even have an open flame at Ole Miss. You can cook anything you want at LSU. Yeah, I mean, it is Louisiana. What are they going to do? That's God's country down there.

So I am not out on Ole Miss yet. If they lose this game, I am 1000% out. And I guess, like you said, it kind of goes the same for both teams. So I'm going to pick Ole Miss to not only win, but cover the spread here. And I'm going to blindly put faith back into the team that they built. And maybe that's stupid, but I think that this is a better football team. I'm not blindly putting my faith in them. I just think this matchup favors Ole Miss. I think LSU's personnel defensively, probably not,

not set up the best to deal with this kind of offense. So I'm going to go with Ole Miss here to cover the spread. Not blindly putting faith in them, but don't let me down in Lane Kiffin. They should be better. They should be better, especially with if they lose this game, they're not going to play off because they're going to lose. They'll lose to Georgia. They'll lose somebody else like they have to win this game.

And LSU, obviously, if they want to go to the playoff, they have to win this game, too. I'm not looking at LSU as a playoff contender right now. I would be if they win this game. And LSU, obviously, if they want to go to the playoff, they have to win this game too. I'm not looking at LSU as a playoff contender right now. I would be if they win this game, but I'm taking Ole Miss. Yeah. And if Ole Miss loses, it's like the first case study of going all in during a advantageous off season where you return a team that won 10 games and have a pretty easy schedule for that to go kaput before mid-October would be an absolute disaster. It would be.

Although if someone were trying to hire Lane Kiffin away from Ole Miss, he would be available at a convenient time. But that would be a team that we were already talking about. But then the luster of what you would want in Lane Kiffin probably would have been. Exactly. You're damned if you do, and you're damned if you don't, Ari. It's like buying a cashmere sweater. It's like buying a cashmere sweater. That's beautiful, but it has a red dot on it. You

just hope that no one will notice. You know what I mean? Exactly. Exactly. All right. Let us move into the Big Ten. And this is a game where we always pick the total in this game. We can pick the spread as well, though. Washington coming off a big win against Michigan. They head to Iowa where the Hawkeyes are favored by two and a half. Hey, I thought Washington's offense looked pretty good against Michigan. I like Will Rogers in that game. I don't know why this game's on our list, Andy, but I'm so happy it is.

We always pick the Iowa total, that's why. Forty and a half is the total, by the way. Yeah. Iowa is not Iowa from last year at all. Like, I don't know if you've been watching. Now, they did a pretty good job. Their defense is not as dominant as it was. They did a good job putting Ohio State into Hawkeye hell for a half.

Okay. Like, it was just like, you know, whenever you're watching an Iowa game, there's always at least one situation where there's 15 minutes of real time between plays. Like, I don't know how they do it, but they do it. It's slow. It's boring. It makes you want to fall asleep. It lulls your opponent to sleep.

You maul them. And then when you're playing a team that doesn't have as much talent as Ohio State at the end of the game, you knock them out. Like that's what Iowa does. I think Iowa could do that to Washington, even though Washington's team, you know, their offense looked alive against Michigan, and I think you might be able to even make a case

that Michigan's defense is better than Iowa's. But Iowa just has that Iowa about it. And I don't know, at home, Washington's feeling good about itself. This is not the game I'd want to play right now if I were Washington. Washington just played a team with a semi-functional offense. Now they got a more functional version, I guess, because Jack Tuttle came in and Michigan could throw the ball a little bit. But I think here's the question I want to ask you. The Jack Tuttle-led Michigan offense, is that better or worse than Iowa's typical offense?

I was just thinking that in my head. I mean, the sample size is really low, but I would say probably better. Okay. Michigan's defense, better or worse than Iowa's defense? Probably better. Okay. Michigan's defense better or worse than Iowa's defense? Probably better. I'll take Washington to win this game. Yeah, but the thing that you're not accepting here is that Iowa puts Benadryl in everybody's water bottle on the other sideline. And I don't know what they do, like how they get it in there, but they

lull you. And I don't know what they do, like how they get it in there, but they lull you. And it's like if college football was just a Discovery Channel segment, like Iowa's superpower would be like one of the coolest segments on there of like how do they get you to a place where you feel muggy? Like that's – I was fighting to stay awake while watching that game on Saturday, and that's what Iowa does to you. That's what they do to you. Also, too, I'm not 100% certain that Michigan's offense is better than Iowa's offense when they have Jack Tuttle.

I don't know what that would look like. I'm not either, but I thought Washington handled that very well, especially considering that they spent the whole week preparing for Alex Orji and a very run-heavy scheme. So Iowa's not that good offensively. They're not going to surprise Washington with very much. They're not going to do anything that is dynamic. The way Iowa wins this game is suppress Washington's offense,

make some big plays on special teams. The way Iowa wins every game they win. Which means that if you think that Washington's going to win, though, you probably like the over to them too, right? I like the money you think that Washington's going to win though you probably like the over them too right I like the money line and the over yeah the Washington money line and and the over uh so Will Rogers averaged 8.7 yards per attempt against Washington against Michigan's defense like that's pretty strong. That's not easy to do. So I think Washington has a chance to turn some things around this. After the Rutgers game, I was like, oh, this could be rough.

But you knew when Jed Fish took over this team, it might take a little bit to get going because it was an entirely new team essentially and now they may kind of know what they have and have have put the best version of this team on the field so i'm i'm excited to see this game even though it may be a little you know nap inducing at times but i think washington plays the way they played against Michigan. They can definitely win this game. So yes, I will take Washington money line and the over. And I thought I was going to pick, um, Iowa because I had the Rutgers game in my head. And I thought that that was the type of game that we would get, like a 20-17 type situation here.

But then I remembered that Washington actually put up like 530 yards of offense against Rutgers and just had like a miserable day, like closing in the red zone. Yeah. And had some turnovers and stuff. I think that Washington is probably better than we think they are. I think I like Washington money Moneyline, and the over. Wow.

We're agreeing way too much. I'm a little worried about this. Now we did disagree on the- Unless Iowa lulls them to sleep, which is always the case. Always a possibility. We did disagree on Texas-Oklahoma, so that's good. Let's stay in the Big Ten. This classic Big Ten matchup.

Penn State at USC. So Penn state's a four and a half point favorite on the road. USC just lost to Minnesota Penn state. You know, I, I think Penn state has looked pretty good the last couple of weeks, but like against UCLA, they, they farted around for a while before they really got going. Penn State is probably better than USC, Ari. USC is in got-to-have-it mode here because things go off the rails, potentially. If Penn State comes in and rolls them, there's some questions for Lincoln Riley. Yeah, it's so funny looking at the number four next to Penn State here because I feel like if Penn State would have just gone West Virginia mode all year, that would feel normal. That would feel right. But what doesn't feel right is that Penn State

has kind of gotten here by default as a result of everybody losing. They haven't lost yet, but they haven't looked at peak level much. But if you did watch the UCLA game, and I did for unspecified reasons, UCLA had zero chance. UCLA was so overmatched. No, you knew they were never going to win. It was just like, okay, Penn State, stop playing with your food, score some points, and let's get out of here. Score 50 points and get out of here. But like they just kind of, you know, farted around one 27 to 11. The score was much closer than the two opponents were on the field in terms of like who, who's good.

The Illinois game was like that too. Even though the score was close, it didn't feel like Illinois was going to, to win that game. There is a second gear that Penn state has and you feel it bubbling and we have not really seen it. And at at all unless you count West Virginia, and that was a weird game with a three-hour delay or whatever it was. I think Penn State has that monster in it,

and the one thing I will say about James Franklin is that even though he has struggled at times winning the games that they have to have, right? Like you have to beat Michigan and Ohio State in the last iteration of the Big Ten, the way it was set up in the Big Ten East, and he failed to do that most of the time. But James Franklin has also done a tremendous job of having his teams ready to play in the big games. Like it's not very often that Penn state just looks overmatched when they're playing teams.

They did not look overmatched last year when they played Ohio state and they did not look overmatched when they played Michigan. Now, maybe they were, maybe they weren't going to win those games, but the scoreboards were closer than, than you would have thought. Like I have faith that Penn state will play its best football game on

Saturday, this of the year. And I think if Penn State does that, they kick the crap out of USD. And they win the games they're supposed to win under James Franklin. The knockout of James Franklin is he doesn't win the games that are toss-ups or that you're supposed to be equal to this and you're both superpowers. When Penn State is the clearly more talented team, they usually win. You know, that nine overtime loss to Illinois is one of the few that you can even remember.

Well, the question is, Andy, is this game supposed, is this game one of those coin flip games? No, Penn State is better. We looked at this game three weeks ago. I was like, oh, wow, this is, this makes October 12th. Incredible. And now it's like USC's luster is completely gone. And I agree. I think that Penn state is clearly the better football team and Penn state

should win this football game. And James Franklin usually has his team ready to play in these types of environments. And especially if this is a quasi big game where Penn State has to really ramp itself up and try to get itself in a headspace where it can avoid messing around like they did with UCLA. I mean, I absolutely think they could win this game by five points. I'm going to pick Penn State here. USC is just really tough watch right now. And I don't know why it's not clicking

for them, but something's off there. Give me Penn State. I am also going to take Penn State here. The question is, does this launch Penn State into something else? And do we see that second year? Or is this going to be a close game where they just kind of mess around, but are better, more talented and just win. Cause we, I mean, there's no better, there's no greater recipient of goodness from the expanded playoff than Penn state.

Because if you look at their schedule and I'm sure river will throw it up here, but they then only have to play Ohio state. They get them at home November 2nd, but the rest of their schedules, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. If this was the Big Ten East days and USC was a non-conference schedule,

they absolutely could have taken this team to one loss and then missed the Big Ten championship game and then maybe not made the playoff as a result of it. But they can lose to Ohio State this year and still be firmly in the mix to be a team that's in the 8 to 11 range. And that's exactly where they typically are every single year. So it's perfect for them. They just have to win this football game, and I think they will. Yeah, if they win this one, they are very safe, and you feel very comfortable

slotting them into the bracket, even if they lose to Ohio State. And they've been in my bracket since the beginning of the year as a result of this. I don't think they're a juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that they are probably a top 10 team, and they are definitely a top 10 recipient of schedule to get there, for sure. Yeah. All right, let's go to another classic Big Ten matchup. This is the one everybody's been waiting for.

This is the one when we found out that two more teams were coming to the league that everybody wanted to see. Ohio State at Oregon in Eugene, 7.30 p.m. Eastern time on NBC. This is what the Peacock paid for. So Ohio State is a three and a half point favorite on the road. We assume this will be the first of two matchups. I don't think that's a safe assumption because of the team. We just talked about Penn State because of various other factors that could play in here.

But I cannot wait for this, Ari. We just talked about Dylan Gabriel in the Red River game last year. I love the fact that a guy with experience like that comes into this. Because I think that matters. But Ohio State, if we watched all these other teams, Ohio State looks like the deepest, best constructed team in the country. But we have not seen them play anybody even close to their level. What happens when they do?

We find out Saturday. Gotta love college football, or you have to wait till week six or state six game to see them play a good team. So, you know what I have seen a lot, Andy, and I think it's probably warranted because Ohio state has typically in the last

few years, lost the games against the teams that they are on equal footing with, especially Michigan. Everyone's like, Oh, Ohio state's overrated. Uh, they always lose these games. Ryan day chokes, big time, all the, all the stuff that you would hear. I don't know, because Ohio State hasn't played a marquee matchup this year, if people are quite up to speed with what this team is this year. Like, I think that this, you know, having covered them for 10 years, looking at what they have on this roster right now, I think you can make a case that this is by far the most talented team that Ohio State has had in the last 20 years years in terms of just who's on the roster.

Right. Probably since that someone that won the national title under Trestle. And it's hard to do that. It's hard to compare it to 14 or even 2002 teams that had, I mean, like Ohio State set NFL draft records and after the 2015 season as a result of the players that propelled them to the 2014 title. So we know we have that information right now. But when you think about the number of players

who would have been drafted last year, who are still on the team, the additions of Caleb Downs and Quintin John Juntkins, like this team is a team that doesn't have an overt weakness. And I think that is this brain out there of like, well, Ohio State is just going to Ohio State this game off and lose because they always falter in big time environments. And that's something that Ryan Day is going to have to deal with in terms of a reputation until he actually wins these games. But I think

that this might be the best team since 2014. And maybe at the end of it, when we have all the context, might look back and go, I can't believe there's that many good players on one roster. Well, and I just need to see them against somebody good. Like I firmly believe you when you say that, but the 2015 team is a great example of that because 2015 Ohio State, probably more talented, more experienced than 2014 Ohio State. They lost to Michigan State in a game they never should have lost. Sometimes it just doesn't work together. And we need to see that against a really good opponent.

So now's our chance. We had an early preview of this game and I said, what Oregon has to do, and I firmly believe this, Oregon's got to make Ohio State miss some tackles. If Caleb Downs and company are just dragging down Oregon receivers the moment they catch the ball, Oregon's going to lose this game. They're not going to be able to move the ball consistently, and they're going to lose. If Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart and those guys can slip a couple tackles, can turn those short confidence passes into longer gains, then all of a sudden you've got a game here. And the other thing is, what is the one area on Ohio State's team

that we still have questions about? The offensive line. Can Oregon's pass rush get to Will Howard? Can they make life difficult for him? Can they force him to make a mistake or two? That's really how Oregon wins this game. I don't know if this is the first of multiple meetings. It may be.

It may be the first of two. It may be the first of three, for all we know. I'm really excited. I think Autzen Stadium is going to be electric. If you've never been to a big game at Autzen, 60,000 seats that sound like 100,000. It's so cool. I'm so excited for this game. I think Ohio State is the more talented team, Ari.

I'm going to take Oregon. Yeah. So here's the thing about Ohio State. And I think that a lot of people have grown tired of hearing about total talent. So I'm not going to talk about total talent right now in this pick. But what I am going to do is point you to a formula that Michigan used last year, which was to bring back a ton of important players, use pieces in the portal to make a veteran roster deeper and better,

and go Death Star for the entire year. Now, this Ohio State roster is last year's Michigan team supercharged. If you think about it that way, they have a bunch of players who came back who should be in the NFL right now in order

to accomplish something. Then they got important portal pieces, including their quarterback. We haven't even said his name. I think Ohio State. I just said Will Howard's name. Oh, you did? Mm-hmm.

It was memorable for me. I'm joking. I think Ohio State's going to win this game comfortably. I think Ohio State is going to put on notice the entire country that this is a different type of team. I don't think that we've been paying attention to them. We haven't spoken about them much on the show because they haven't played anybody worth a pulse.

And this is the only team, I think, in the country that's going to go wire to wire without faltering. I think that they're going to do it this year. So I think Ohio State's going to win, and I would not be surprised if it won in a way that they are not sweating the spread with 10 minutes left in the game. Woo-hoo. Are we calling for the blowout?

I don't know about blowout, but I think Ohio State's going to have a comfortable enough lead where if Oregon scores late, they're not going to lose it. The bet. I think Oregon's going to take this one. I do. Well, I'll take my three and a half points, please. Thank you very much. I feel good about the Ducks in this one because I haven't seen it with Ohio State. Now, maybe the Ohio State turns on the afterburners and I'm like, okay, never mind. Pick an Ohio State the rest of the way, but I want to see it.

Oregon also has afterburners. They do, but you and I, I think, can agree, if we were NFL GMs, Ohio State's the more talented team here. Yeah. But it doesn't matter, because you have to put it all together on the field. It will be a very difficult environment to play in, and as you mentioned, Oregon has very good players too.

Cannot wait. All right, Ari. Hey, Andy, can I ask you a bonus question real quick? Just real quick. I know we're going to play in. And as you mentioned, Oregon has very good players too. Cannot wait. All right, Ari. Hey, Andy, can I ask you a bonus question real quick? Just real quick. I know we're going to go long. Go ahead. Whose receiver's room are you taking? Is that even a question?

Yeah. Ohio State. There's no question. Ohio State has Jeremiah. Whose offensive line are you taking? Oregon's. And that's why we're talking about this. That's why we have a disagreement on who might win.

But I would take Ohio State's defensive line 100 times out of 100. Of course you would. Ohio State's defensive line. As would I. Yeah. Which quarterback are you taking? I think. Which quarterback? That's a hundred. Of course you would. Ohio State's defensive line. As would I. Yeah. Which quarterback? I think. Which quarterback?

That's a wash. I don't know. Is it a wash? Well, here's the thing about the quarterback position. When you are surrounded by monsters everywhere, it makes the game a lot easier. So if I had to just start my team around i would probably take dylan gabriel if i had to start my team around it but in turn but we're not talking

about just that we're talking about effectiveness i'm just asking who you think the better quarterback is and i i agree with you it's dylan gabriel it's the one who last year took the team that was not as talented in the red river game and won. He's done this. We've seen it. I'm excited. I'm excited. It's going to be great. I'm excited to watch it with you. I don't know if I'm right, but I know I'm going to enjoy it.

I've actually had some anxiety about this because the game starts, I believe, at 7, and we're going to be in a hell of traffic. We've got to figure out a way to make sure that we have this game flying and we're not in the car. I want to be locked in for this thing. I don't know. Like we get locked in,

but don't worry if we have to travel for the first quarter, it's okay. The, we live in an age of technology where that is available to us. No, but I'm going to be driving and I'm going to be screaming, excited, ready to watch the game.

And I just, you know, by the way, I don't know if I've said this on the show. I have an absolute love affair with Evan Stewart. I think he's incredible. I think that he might make a few big plays in this game

that alter the way it goes. I as much as I've talked about Jeremiah Smith, Evan Stewart is a name that we have not spoken about. Not me and you. Us as a we have not spoken about. Not me and you. Us as a country have not discussed enough. This kid is incredible. I think he's going to be a great pro in Oregon. The reason why I brought that up is because Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart

is a hell of a one-two punch at receiver. That makes you double think about the receiver advantage just even for a second. Doesn't make me think about it for a second that's how good jeremiah smith and amicabu car but but that's okay you're right they're very good let's go to another one of those big 12 games this is a higher spread than i thought it would be but it's one of those where i don't know who's going to win but it will affect the race and one of these teams is actually kind of in back against the wall territory. And it's not the team that we would have expected coming into the season. Colorado at Kansas state. So Colorado is two and oh, in big 12 play. Kansas state has a loss in big 12 play.

They have lost to BYU. This is a big one. K state goes to Boulder. Colorado getting five and a half points at home. Ari, if Colorado beats K-State here, K-State is not out of the Big 12 championship race, but the pulse will barely be beating at that point. I mean, we're at a point where if you have two losses this early in the year with the way this conference goes, I would be comfortable saying you're out.

Like, I think this is a must win for Kansas State. And listen, you know, I've been critical of Deion Sanders. I have been critical of the way that he's assembled his roster. I'm starting to come around on the idea that I could be wrong about this team. And we're going to find out on Saturday night. Like, I, I still think that Kansas state is five and a half points better than Colorado. Um, I can't believe that, uh, Colorado has already done what they've done, but I'm not fully flipped yet.

Like if Colorado wins this football game, like they are going to maybe be in my playoff bracket. Like that's like, we're on the verge here of like flipping from this team is going to lose seven games this year to like, holy crap, what's happening over there? And like, if there's any debate about who should win the Heisman, if they win this game and he has a big game in Travis Hunter, like we're not even to watching the same sport like Colorado is in a place where they can shut people up this is like shut people up mode here it and and the thing is they might be able to do it in the way that BYU

did it to K-State so K-State was running the ball okay against BYU BYU won because K-State. So K-State was running the ball okay against BYU. BYU won because K-State made some crippling mistakes. The two Avery Johnson interceptions were horrendous and he was under pressure both times. And he threw two guys that were like BYU jerseys that there were no K-State jerseys near them. And I think that's what Colorado will try to do to him. Colorado. We talk about them on a line of scrimmage. I don't know how good they are on the interior defensive line, but I like their edge guys. And they like, they played against UCF without day on Hayes and it was BJ green and Okanola and they played great. So if their edge guys are playing well, they can mess with K state's running game a little bit because it makes it hard to make those read option decisions.

You saw UCF struggle with that. And if you can get some pressure on Avery Johnson and force him to make a mistake, that's where you throw it to Travis Hunter. And unfortunately, bad things happen for you when you do that. Now, I think the other piece of this is Travis Hunter on the other side of the ball Shador Sanders on the other side of the ball and Horn like K-State has not seen this level of tab well I guess I mean they had Fafita they played against Fafita and TMAC so they've seen it at receiver they've seen TMAC, and they did win that game. But I'm going to take Shador Sanders over Noah Fafita 10 times out of 10. So they have not had to deal with this.

If they can get Shador under pressure the way that Nebraska did, then yes, K-State's going to win this game. But I don't know that they're going to be able to do that. I don't know that they't know they're going to be able to do that i don't know that they have the pass rush nebraska has yeah sneaky great game by the way uh october 12th i think a little of the luster from the usc penn state game came off but a lot of the lusters back on here like i didn't think this would even be something that we'd have to discuss uh at this. We're going to be watching this as we do the show. This is a... This is a kickoff of like 10th or

11th. You know it's going to be like a triple over time crazy ass game if you're here. We're going to be up until 5 in the morning. It's going to be electric. But yeah, I respect that.

I mean, frankly speaking, I want to. I just can't. I just can't do it yet. I'm not all the way flipped on that. I am taking Colorado here, especially if you're going to give me points. If you give me all those points, I'm taking them. Yeah, I'm going to lay the five and a half. I think it's possible that Colorado, it's still possible that Colorado could revert back to some of the

previous iterations of itself this year like I mean we're talking about a team that got blown off the field by Nebraska right like I mean it's not like they did but Nebraska has some stuff that not a lot of the teams they're going to see in the big 12 have like Nebraska can can come after you up the middle of your offense that those two defensive tackles make it nearly impossible. If your interior offensive line is not great, make it impossible to do anything. And I'm just not sure that most of the Big 12 has that. Or anybody in the Big 12 has that. So maybe I'm wrong.

Maybe K-State does get after shadur but i just if he's got a little bit of time to throw i like colorado in this game so yeah all right so i'm taking colorado you're taking k-state one more one more in the Big 12 also. Arizona at BYU. BYU undefeated still. The darling of the Big 12. Arizona coming off a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech where Arizona came back, was in a position to win. Then Texas Tech came back and won the game. Arizona is in desperation mode here. Now they only have the one big 12 loss because the k-state loss was not a conference game remember it was scheduled before arizona decided to join the conference so arizona has beaten utah but has lost to texas tech

so how do we feel about this one Ari? it could be like this every other thing that U of A's got going on right now like every other week they're good and bad and then good and then bad Arizona has some pieces that could keep them in just about every game that they play but they're not clicking but when they do click just about every game that they play, but they're not clicking. But when they do click, it's hard to stop.

Now, right. Utah saw that. Yeah. I mean, you're talking about a team that was in a four quarter game with Northern Arizona and then beat the crap out of Utah. I mean, they won 23 to 10. Great, great team news. You got to explain this. The K-State loss is not a conference loss.

That was considered an out-of-conference game because they just couldn't change the schedule. So, no, it does not count in the conference standings as a win for K-State or as a loss for Arizona. It's a weird sport, guys. Yeah, sorry about that. It's hard to explain sometimes explain sometimes sorry we're making it up as we go but uh yeah the question here because i think like arizona is solid not great not terrible solid i think is how much are we buying into cougar fever right now oh well i mean best jewish quarterback they've ever had for sure stud i mean we do have to have a discussion about how byu savior is a jew i don't

know when we'll do that i don't we can do that now we can do that i mean i feel like you you want to you probably should take the lead on that one as a member of the tribe but yeah jake retzliff is so it's not just the way he throws ball he can move to like he has a lot of is some good pocket awareness and then can scramble and gain you some yards that way it's been it's been fun to watch but their defense is also very fun to watch like their defense can can goad you into like we just talked about the what happened with avery johnson the kansas state game like they goaded avery johnson into some crushing mistakes and they took advantage of that i mean it is the only college football team in the country that has two faiths vehemently backing it right like he's doing a lot for the jewish people here

at the quarterback position and of course byu and uh Mormonism, right? Like you have a lot going on there, but they're actually a really, really good football team. And they've done some things that make you scratch your head a little bit, right? Like one beating SMU looks a lot better now than it did when it happened. Or maybe not because people thought SMU was going to be good before the year. But then I just cannot get the 38 to 9 win over kansas state at home out of my head now again it's a big 12 game guess what the spread is three and a half like here we are again and we're at a point where if byu were to lose to arizona that wouldn't be a run-to-your-computer shocking result, right? No. But BYU was an underdog against Baylor, and then BYU beat Baylor after scoring 21 points in the first quarter. I think BYU is just a better football team top to bottom

than Arizona is this year. I'm going to lay the points. Yeah, and BYU also coming off an open date. Arizona coming off a very tough, you know, four-quarter game against Texas Tech. Yeah, I will also take BYU here, though. Again, Arizona in the state of Utah this year, so far so good.

Not so much in the state of Arizona. So this is going to be the Big 12. At a certain point, I might just have an honorary Big 12 coin made so I can just flip it when we pick these games. And then on the front, it should say plus three and a half, and on tails, it should be minus three and a half. Exactly. All right.

Ari, it's been a pleasure. We got lots to talk about. We got to talk more about Alabama as they come back, try to come back from this loss to Vanderbilt. We got to talk about LSU, a team we've not talked about much this year as they go to play Ole Miss in a game that is critically important for both teams. And really, let's get into discussion tomorrow about the playoff in general.

Like, at what point do you start to worry that your chances are dwindling? And is it really bad if that's this week? We'll talk about it tomorrow.