Andy & Ari On3 - RIVALRY WEEK picks! | Will Texas or Texas A&M advance to Atlanta? | Can Ohio State break the streak?

Episode Date: November 25, 2024

You’ve had Wendy’s Nuggs dipped in sauce. But have you had them covered in sauce? Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11. Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker, try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. Thank you to Gametime for sponsoring today's episode! Planning your college football travel for this season? Gametime has tickets to every game. (And every concert and comedy show.) Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES(0:00-0:40) Wendy's Saucy Nuggs!(0:41-16:28) Intro - Settling Dust on  Week 13(16:29-18:13) Gametime(18:14-24:41) Georgia Tech at Georgia(24:42-29:27) Nebraska at Iowa(29:28-41:44) South Carolina at Clemson(41:45-42:47) Download PrizePicks(42:48-50:25) Tennessee at Vanderbilt(50:26-57:35) Michigan at Ohio State(57:36-58:36) Florida State facing Florida(58:37-1:01:58) Finishing up Michigan at Ohio State(1:01:59-1:07:42) Notre Dame at USC(1:07:43-1:11:22) Washington at Oregon(1:11:23-1:15:42) Kansas State at Iowa State(1:15:43-1:19:53) Arizona State at Arizona(1:19:54-1:24:09) Auburn at Alabama(1:24:10-1:26:44) Miami at Syracuse(1:26:45-1:32:11) Texas at Texas A&M(1:32:12-1:32:50) Conclusion It’s rivalry week! Will Texas or Texas A&M make the SEC title game? Can Ohio State break its losing streak to Michigan? What chaos might break out. Time for Andy and Ari to pick the games… Georgia Tech at Georgia (-19.5) Total: 54.5 Nebraska at Iowa (-4.5) Total: 39.5 South Carolina at Clemson (-2.5) Total 49.5 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+10.5) Total: 48.5 Michigan at Ohio State (-20.5) Total: 43.5 Notre Dame at USC (+6.5) Total: 50.5 Washington at Oregon (-19.5) Total: 51.5 Kansas State at Iowa State (-2.5) Total: 52.5 Louisville at Kentucky (+3.5) Total: 49.5 Arizona State at Arizona (+8.5) Total: 53.5 Auburn at Alabama (-11.5) Total: 52.5 Miami at Syracuse (+10.5) Total: 67.5 Texas at Texas A&M (+5.5) Total: 48.5  Watch us LIVE on YouTube, M-Th at 9:30 am et! https://youtube.com/live/TGqt7GXY4hE  Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

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it's gotta be Wendy's at Participating US Wendy's. Welcome to Andy and Ari on. We have rivalry week. It's saucy. Producer River gave us a saucy take right before the show started where he goes USC Moneyline and that's all I'm going to say. Come on. Andy, I have, you know what I went to bed thinking about last night? First of all, new show that you suggested Landman Electric. Love that show. We're watching it and then so Ali Larder's character. I like to imagine is just the 40 something version of her character from Varsity Blues like the shows exist in

the same universe and that and she just grew up and now she has a twenty something and a seventeen year old. She's Billy Bob Thornton's ex-wife like it all tracks. University blues out there like near Midland. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's it's halfway. West Canaan is halfway between Midland and Odessa. That is so funny because that's what I was thinking too. It's like I hope there's I'm not going to say what I just said. Hey, Andy, I'll say it. I hope there's a washing machine in this somewhere.

I thought you were gonna say whipped cream bikini, but washing machine, I would also accept. Andy, so here's what I, so we watched the show, we shut it off, and then I went to sleep, because I was like, I don't know if you do this, but every night before I go to bed, I kind of visualize what's on my plate the next day.

And I have to do the list of teams that are still technically alive for the college football playoff. And I know we have a lot of picks to do. And I know that River dropped this USC bomb on us right before we went live. But I like was playing it in my head over and over and over again. Are we sure that Alabama is out? Like, before I do this, are we like, like I want to take them off. I want to take them off the list. But I was thinking about it. Like, what is the path for Alabama to get into this thing? Because if Georgia wins

this SEC championship this year, and there are three lost team with win over Georgia. Like you and Ralph Russo were texting about this yesterday. Like, are we sure that SMU gets in or Miami gets in the loser of the ACC over a three lost team in the SEC with a win over Georgia? Like how far are we going with this? Help me, please help me. Alabama does this every year.

Like they did it. It doesn't matter what they do. They're doing it now. Like you just can't quit them. You can't quit them. But it is the win over Georgia is the thing. And here's the other thing. So what's the team we've been saying all along?

Oh, you know, it was a three loss team. They're the hottest one in America right now. If they'd be the one nobody would want to play South Carolina, right? So this is how I came to the conclusion that Alabama is not quite out of it yet. South Carolina is sort of the cause for the people who say three loss teams should get in. Well, who is South Carolina lost to? Alabama and Ole Miss, both three loss SEC teams that beat Georgia. Alabama or Ole Miss would get in over South Carolina.

So if you're thinking about South Carolina getting in, you got to move up to Alabama and Ole Miss getting in because they would more likely get in than South Carolina. Yeah, and I think, I'm looking at the chat here and people are like, can you stop talking about Alabama or whatever? And it's like, I want to stop talking about them, but I'm doing a list where people look at it. Nick Terry says, can we look at their freaking results?

They scored three points against Oklahoma. They also beat Georgia. That is also a result. And I'm not trying to talk myself into it. Like I want people who are listening to know that I'm not trying to talk into it. Like I I want people who are listening to know that I I'm not trying to talk myself into this. I don't want this but I was thinking about coming into the year with the twelve team format would actually mean and I think I don't know if you

were on the same page with me Andy. Coming into the year, didn't you think that there would be three lost teams in the dance like isn't that how you kind of visualize it? I the to be compared to a one lost team or two lost team from the ACC but like I don't know if I can take them off the list and I just wanted to know if you were agreeing with me on that. No, you're right. I came to the same conclusion you did kind of in a different way. I wasn't thinking about it before bed or in the shower which is where you usually do your best thinking but yes I thought about that. How about this? Let me throw this scenario at you because this is one I thought about that. How about this? Let me let me let me throw this scenario at you because this is one I thought up yesterday and I was like, wow, this this would

be to hear the politics coming out of the conference offices. If this happened would be spectacular. Like the spin doctors would earn their money. Ready? Texas A&M beats Texas, thereby earning a spot in the SEC Championship game. Texas A&M at that point would be a nine and three team. Georgia Tech beats Georgia. Georgia's already in the SEC Championship game. They would be a nine and three team. The SEC Championship is winning in and the loser is out. And

the loser and the winner would not get in any other way. Yeah. I mean, I'm like, yeah, I just like you saw what happened this past weekend. Uh rivalry weekends even weirder and listen like Alabama could lose to Auburn on Saturday. I'm I'm fully convinced easily Easily. They just got beat 24-3 by Oklahoma. Yeah. I mean, I think that it being at home

makes it harder to envision for me. But that is what it is. That game is always weird. So hopefully we don't have to talk about this, Andy. But when I do the list today, I'm keeping them on. Regretfully. Yeah, you should. You should keep Ole Miss on as well, because it's the same reason it is a

winning against Georgia and winning in South Carolina. Those are the things that are holding them up. Now the only reason why I actually feel good about the ACC. And I think we've seen this from the committee in the past is if you have two teams that have the same argument going against one team, that's not a part of the argument,

then usually you pick the one because you can't decipher the other two, right? Like, so like if you have Alabama and Ole Miss sitting there at nine and three at the end of the year and Ole Miss has a win over Georgia and Alabama has a win over Georgia. How do you decipher those two teams and if you put Alabama and then Ole Miss would be angry and the ACC would be angry you might as well just pick the ACC team and make everybody in the SEC angry for the same reason. Like because you can't

split those hairs right? Like how do you pick between those two? If we get to a point where we are accepting that a three loss team is in Because you can't split those hairs, right? Like, how do you pick between those two? If we get to a point where we are accepting that a three-loss team is in the playoff, you cannot decipher Alabama and Ole Miss in a rational way. You can look at the fifth most important metric that they have in their little notebooks in that conference room,

but they're basically the same team. So that's my thought. So I think the other thing is, and I said this earlier in the season, if you beat multiple playoff teams that's going to help you. But who beat multiple playoff teams if it's going to be what we think? Because like Alabama and Ole Miss beat Georgia, that's the playoff team they beat. Alabama lost to Tennessee, that's the other one that might make the playoff. Ole Miss beat Georgia, that's the playoff team.

There's not another playoff team they beat. Everybody we're talking about, everybody has one win against a potential playoff team. The one team I think that could end up with more than one is Ohio State because they beat Penn State. And they beat Indiana. They could actually end up with wins against three playoff teams because they could beat Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. Yeah, or if Oregon beats Ohio State, then they only get they get credit for two. They would have

two in Ohio State would have two. Yeah, I think I think that Oregon would deserve to have credit for two. But again, I think that splitting hairs on that one. I think that both of those teams would probably agree that the five seed if that's where they end up with a loss would be better for them. So, I don't know if Oregon wants credit for two. That would be so yeah. So, I'm going to do this today and I'm going to ask how many how many games is too many

games to lose is starting to feel like these games don't matter. Three lost team of the playoffs. Come on now, Hunter. If it let's say I I want to posit a world where there are no group of five or FCS non-conference games. Like imagine it were like the NFL and the power teams only played the power teams. You'd have tons of three lost teams in the playoff. Like when the teams are more equal, they lose games. That's how this works.

And you're just going to keep seeing that as long as this era continues, which it's going to. If you don't like three lost teams in the playoff, then you're a 14 person. I think your time is passed because it's gone and dead and never coming back. So I'm just saying that's where, you know, if Alabama gets into the playoff and you're outraged by it, then don't be upset if you're a 12 team person because your view of the sport and how it should be expanded is what led to it. So that's how it is. Yeah, and trust me, it's gonna be better

because the playoffs is gonna be fun. This whole, we don't want it to be the NFL. The NFL is the most popular sport in the country for a reason. The NFL playoffs are a lot of fun. I don't know how to break this to you guys. Teams lose games in the NFL because the talent is relatively equal. So we spent 20 years saying, God, I wish wish the talent was more equal in college football.

I wish there was a way to do that. I hate the two teams just dominate the whole sport. Well, now you have that and you're bitching because teams are losing. What did you think was going to happen? This is what you want. I'm happy that you I mean, I'm not going to clip that so we can have dueling. This is what you want. That is what you want. Shoot. I just don't have the energy anymore. Let me do it again. Ari, clear the audio. Let me do it again.

Hold on. Three, two, one. That is what you want. There it is. Goat dog with an interesting point in the chat. How they look right now will be the big joker in that committee room. This is interesting, Ari. So what you just said about the split the baby argument with the ACC teams in Alabama, like Alabama just got shredded at Oklahoma. Let's say they beat Auburn but look like crap doing it. That's where you can easily make the they look better now argument to put the loser of the ACC Championship game in there. Now the real funny thing, and I saw someone else in the chat,

brought this up, but I would be really interesting if 9-3 Alabama got in and it was at the expense of a 10 and two SEC team like if that was instead of adding an SEC team and screwing the just take one out they messed it up and took an SEC team out with two losses like what if like like Texas got left out in favor of Alabama because Alabama beat Georgia and Texas lost team at the end of the year. It's not. It's not the worst because that's just saying Alabama played a harder schedule and respecting that.

Like it's not the weirdest thing you could do. JC with a really good idea for tomorrow's show. I like this. I think we should do this Ari. I create some blind resume arguments for you and you create some blind resume arguments for me. And so we try to guess what the teams are. And see, because I love the blind resume game, because it

does challenge your assumptions. Yeah. Um, yeah, we could do that. I'm terrible at it, but we can do it. Well, I yeah, I think just come up with what you think is the best one. And the most most intriguing one or two, and then we can we can work on that because I think it's interesting is that the entire paradigm of the things that we were worried about in the playoff race last week, last Tuesday night have become like rendered useless because like we were arguing about where SMU was ranked and how important that was maybe for them to get in. But then at the same time, it's like, it felt like they were a winner or you're out scenario. So the ranking didn't matter, but now they're ranking kind of does

matter. Like if you comes into the weekend and they're 13 or something again, like for whatever reason, cause they don't love SMU resume for some reason, like that would be an alarming thing. Like SMU is, is living right now or operating under the assumption that even if they lose a close game to Miami and the ACC or the big, the ACC, God, these conferences, the ACC championship that they're in.

But like, what if SMU was number 12 tomorrow? Like, can we assume that? Like, even though there's 10 and one, seven and O in the ACC, like SMU has been the team that has been most discriminated against in terms of resume and ranking so yeah the way it's the way it's set up now like if SMU would lose the ACC championship game the committee would have to still bring them up into the playoff right which they could do they could just say say, well, it was a, they gave Miami a better game than we thought they would

and their resume shows they deserve it. Like they can come up with any reason they want, but it does seem like SMU kind of has to win this and then Miami would settle into an at large spot. But you know, when we did the mock committee, it's really difficult because you only simulate like they bring media members and I don't know if you guys know this, but they bring media members in every year to grapevine Texas

and they allow media members to mock, they pick a random year and then they put you in the conference room, they give you all the materials and let you go through what the committee goes through. And it's a really fun exercise because you get an opportunity to understand what they're doing and actually doing it yourself. But the thing that is difficult about it is, is it's only a one or a two day thing.

And you only do it with all the information from once the season is completed. So you don't, the one thing that I've always wondered, and I'm sure you have too Andy, is as the committee is doing it, they're ranking every week with the most updated information week week two week three week four are they ever considering ranking teams in a way where they're making a statement for the future and I would argue that they're not so I know spend all this time

talking about well what is SMU being 13 right now mean for SMU it just means that that's what the committee thought they were this week. And that can change like that next week. So like, there was no like, I think people are like, the committee is sending you a message so later on they can do this. It's like, they don't do that at all.

They just do what they think is right in the moment. But a lot of times what they think is right in the moment can be alarming if you're a team that's banking on trying to get it at the end. Yeah. Like backdooring it. Yeah, exactly. So games that will affect the playoff race. You can go to them if you don't have ticks doesn't matter. You can go to the game time is your home for last minute tickets. You want to go to Texas and Texas

A&M. You could be at Kyle Field. Now, it will cost you. We're talking six and seven hundred bucks to get into this game. But you can get into to Sanford Stadium and watch a little clean old fashioned hate, George and Georgia Tech for 130 bucks or $130 or. For as low as 25 bucks, you can get into Jack Trice Stadium in Ames and watch Farmageddon, which by the way, this game may have more impact on the playoff than the other ones, because if Iowa State beats Kansas State,

they're in the Big 12 championship game. If they win the Big 12 championship game, they are in the playoff. That game was awesome last year in Manhattan. It was in the snow, it was high scoring, it was crazy. If you get a game like that, 25 bucks well spent. So download your Game Time app and it doesn't have to be football games.

It can be comedy shows, it can be concerts. I bought Taylor Swift tickets for my wife and daughter a few weeks ago on Game Time. Use the code staples, $20 off your first purchase, terms apply, but 20 bucks off that first purchase. If you use the code staples, download the Game Time app. Doesn't matter if you have tickets now, doesn't matter if you wake up day in the game

and like, I wanna go to the game. Game Time has your tickets. So easy, the process is pretty seamless. But that Taylor Swift situation, it was day of the concert, morning of, we had tickets within Swift situation. It was day of the concert morning of we had tickets within five minutes. It was amazing. So download game time, use the code staples $20 off your first purchase. Ari, we must pick some games now. And River Yes, dropped a little bomb on us. Right as we started

our producer goes, I'm just gonna say this USC money line in the USC Notre Dame game. So we'll get to that. We got to start with a Black Friday game though. It's a psychopath thing. I know. I know. I want to know like why what what do you what do you know? So on Friday, we had a handyman come over and install a stealing fan in this room. Because I'm a big circulator. You can't do it yourself. Got it. Okay. Oh, yeah. I'm gonna get up on a ladder and install a ceiling fan in this room because I'm a big circulating air thing. Because you can't do it yourself, got it, okay. Oh yeah, I'm gonna get up on a ladder

and install a ceiling fan. Like I can't even put together a mic stand. It's so easy, they've got the little hook things now where you just hook the fan assembly on it and then wire it up, it's easy. I'm sure it's a fricking breeze with caulking up there, I'm sure I could do that. Hey, and Brett bought this fan off Amazon

and I guess the instructions were in Chinese in Japanese or something like Chinese and like the handyman was like, I'm just winging this here. Like, could you imagine if I like, yes, I love it. Because I've done it. Yes, I can imagine is that I'm not arrogant enough to even attempt it. Like I just know who I am. But anyway, I turned it on because it's kind of warm in here. Can you hear it? No. OK, perfect. That's right.

Long, that's a long line up for an epist pitch there are be alright. Alright black Black Friday game in Athens, Georgia, Georgia Tech at Georgia. Georgia is a 19 and a half point favorite in this game and oh my God, already that feels like so many points. Yeah, does it?

Man, I know Georgia Tech has played pretty well at times this year, but like this is like Georgia going into Death Star mode back into the SEC championship game, ready to be the number two seed in the playoff. I mean, I think people are like, well, if Georgia Tech beats Georgia, and every time I hear that my eyes roll into the back of my head, like, come on, what are we doing? But I'm not saying they meet Georgia. I'm saying do they lose by 15 to Georgia? This is a very different question. No, I know. But like even the notion or the thought that Georgia Tech can keep it close in my brain makes it fog. So I don't know. I don't know what I think. Like, do you think

like Georgia is going to play another lackadaisical game? Or do you think that, you know, it's Georgia Tech is good enough to play close with Georgia? Either both of those are alarming. But Ari, which game is more important, this game or the SEC Championship game? The SEC Championship game and UMass just get like ran up 250 yards of offense against Georgia in the first half on Saturday. I don't know if you saw that. No, I did.

So I'm a little concerned now. Georgia Tech's using a two cubic system with Aaron Filo and Haynes King. Filo is the true freshman who he's going to be good. He's good good, but they obviously want to keep using Haynes King. Philo's the true freshman who, he's gonna be good. He's good, good, but they obviously wanna keep using Haynes King. That worked really well in the win against Miami. It works a lot less well in the game against NC State,

which Georgia Tech needed a miracle to win. I don't know where to go with this one. Brent Key knows Kirby Smart very well. They've worked together. I think Brent Key can keep this game mucked up to the point where it's somewhat close. I don't think Georgia Tech is going to go in there and win. But 19 and a half points is so many freaking points that that's

my issues. Like I'm not saying Carson Beck reverts to the three interception Carson Beck like I don't I think he's probably going to be fine. I just think there's a good chance because Georgia was probably better last year than it is this year and that Georgia Tech team played an eight point game against Georgia. Now that was in Atlanta but I just feel like Georgia Tech can keep this one close even if it's not. I'll give you an example. Notre Dame Georgia Tech was not particularly close in the second

half, but it would not have covered this spread. Yeah, it just that it's at Georgia, right? I think that matters in this type of situation. It does. I mean, I think the Tennessee game was a great example of that. You saw how much more cleanly Georgia's offense operated. Georgia Tech is not like a joke team. Like they're a very No, Georgia Tech is a yeah, they have a puncher's chance to win the game.

See, I'm not gonna go there. I don't think they have a puncher's chance to win the game. I think I'm not gonna go there. I don't think they have a puncher's chance to win the game. I think that they're probably gonna cover though. Like eight, like. I'm taking Georgia Tech to cover cause it is just an obscene amount of points. That's if you, if you put this thing at 13 and a half, I'd be taking Georgia all day.

But if you're gonna be almost three touchdowns, I'm taking Georgia Tech here. Yeah, or if you wanted to get really froggy, just wait for Georgia to go up seven nothing in the first quarter and then you can get it at 26 and a half or something, that would be great. Right, the back door is wide open at that point. Like wide open.

I just, I think this is gonna be, and especially like the Black Friday aspect of it, it's a weird week, shorter week. Just so, everything feels weird. I'm probably gonna say that. 10 times as we pick these games. Yeah, I think that's the problem. I do that. That I and I wonder and I don't know

if there's like a way to look this up. Probably not, but when you have a very bizarre week like we did on Saturday, like your mind stays there into the following week. And I don't know what the stats are in terms of like crazy Saturday, one of the craziest Saturdays we've had in a long time, then the following week,

it just returns to normal usually, right? Like I don't feel like the craziness goes two weeks in a row. So, you know. Well, and that's the thing as- I'm kind of anticipating that this weekend is gonna return to normal. As I was going through these picks,

there's a couple scenarios where I'm like, oh, this is easy. The normal part of my brain is like, yeah, this will be what it is. But then there are other games, and this is one of them, where it's just like, I'm in a blender because I saw what I saw last week. I've seen what I've seen the last few weeks of this season. I've seen Georgia look different.

And I don't know which Georgia this is. I'm assuming it's the Georgia we saw against Tennessee, which if it is, there is a chance that that they cover in this game. Yeah, but I feel comfortable that Georgia wins. I just don't feel comfortable that Georgia wins by that much. Yeah, I'm with you. Alright. Next up. Nebraska at Iowa.

Another Black Friday game. We always pick the Iowa total but this time we're picking the point spread to I am shocked that I was favored in this game Ari. Are you? No. Okay. Well, not only are they favored that this opened at four and a half. They are now favored by five and a half Why are you shocked? They're starting a freshman walk-on quarterback against that Nebraska defense Yeah It's a one possession game and Nebraska's involved in it. I know they they're bowl eligible right now

But also that wasn't a one possession game. So I guess if Nebraska is gonna win they've got a win by That's true. This is the one possession game. So I guess if Nebraska is going to win, they've got to win by. I'm not sure this is the one possession game Ari. Like you don't know that I was going to be able to move the ball on them. Yeah, no, I know we've seen Iowa operate in one possession games or they can't get a first down for a lot of years, but their defense isn't as good this year. I I still think that. They could totally win this game by six. They could.

I don't know about you, but I don't know that like Nebraska's offense is something that makes me like quiver in my boots. I'm not scared of Nebraska's offense at all. And I realized they did just kind of explode against Wisconsin and you could say, well, now that, you know, they've had Dan Holgerson calling it for a couple of weeks. He's, he's got it locked in.

That's why I'm leaning Nebraska, but I could absolutely see exactly what you said where Iowa can't get a first down, but they, they have a, you know, a couple. Turnovers that give them short fields. They kick some field goals. They have a, like a punt return for a touchdown. I can easily see that happening, but I also could see. I would not crossing the 50 in this game. And so we didn't talk at all about the Iowa quarterback situation last week. Cause there was so much going on.

That was a weird, weird deal. Kate McNamara, uh, they announced he's cleared to play. He says, no, I'm not. I still have concussion symptoms. And there's this whole back and forth and they ended up starting Jackson Stratton. And yeah, Kirk Ferent said that was playing the Maryland game that Jackson Stratton

is gonna play this game too. And that's the kid that was playing like scout team linebacker earlier in the year, right? Receiver, I believe. Yeah. Oh, I thought it was playing defense. Are you sure? I'm not positive, but I did read, you know,

very informative Scott Dockerman story about the whole situation last week. It is very strange. It's one of those things where obviously everybody's being very careful about what they say because Cade McNamara, if he says, hey, I've still got concussion symptoms, I can't play. They're gonna they're gonna back off.

Goat dog pointing out that you're not cursed. You were just asked. That's right, Nebraska wasn't cursed. They were just bad, and maybe they're not bad anymore. Yeah, and now you're picking the money line on the road and a rivalry. I wasn't going to pick the money line. I was going to take the points. You're going to take the points. Be a man. I've been taking money line. I bet my Auburn money line last week. Fine. Fine. Fine. Put your nuts on the

table Andy. I mean, I like if Nebraska won this game, it would be the least surprising thing in the world, but also to 24 to 17 or something like that or 20 to 14. You know what I like is the under this game that covers. Yeah, no, we're the game could be like 13 to nine or something. You know what I mean? Like that's the 100 percent. We were in Iowa over podcast. We are not this way. I'm sorry I said it. Yeah, no we're not.

Like I already wrote it down. I was typing up, we've got a written version of this that comes out after the show. And I was typing up my picks. And I have under 39 and a half written down. Because I really think Iowa's going to struggle to move the ball. I suspect Nebraska's also going to struggle to move the ball. I suspect Nebraska is also going to struggle to move the ball. Like this feels like a very low scoring game to me. But Ari, I'm going to do it.

Okay. Nebraska money line under 39 and a half. Yeah. I mean, I'm going to take the points too, but I also am going to be afraid to do it, but I also am going be afraid to do it. But I also am gonna take the under. So I'm gonna write Nebraska plus five and a half, but I feel like they're gonna potentially lose 13 to nine. Or 16, 16 to 12.

13 to nine you win. Yeah, bad at math podcast. No, no, lose 13 to nine. Right, if they lose 13 to nine, you win. That's why I'm taking the points. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, OK, alright. There we go. Another big rivalry game. This is what I feel like we've been

assuming a result. For about a month. And now that it's here, I'm not so sure I assume that result. South Carolina at Clemson. Clemson is a two and a half point favorite in this game. The result I think we've been assuming for a month is that South Carolina will win. Are you are shaking your head? It's wrong. That's not right.

Clemson is not better than South Carolina right now. And I understand it's a rivalry game. I know it's at Clemson, but I'm taking South Carolina money line and not even thinking about it. I'm not taking South Carolina. I'm going to take those those those two and a rivalry game. I know it's at Clemson, but I'm taking South Carolina Moneyline and not even thinking about it. I'm not taking South Carolina. I'm going to take those those those two and a half me. You need the points.

I just yes, I just took the Moneyline in another one because I think the seeds of doubt crept in when Vegas made Clemson a favorite. And I don't know if that was to rope a dope people into just hitting South Carolina hard and swinging it back the other way. I do. Do you think this this line's gonna flip during the week? I do. Yeah, I do too. This is why I'll take. I'll take some free points if they're gonna give them to me because here's the thing. There are a lot of casual betters out there that don't watch the sport like us and

we'll just think that South Carolina South Carolina. Like if South Carolina plays a good clean football game, they are better this year than Clemson. Like, is that a fair thing to say? I think that's a very fair thing to say. I Kate Clubnick has torched some teams with his legs, but those are all teams that don't have the kind of speed on defense that South Carolina has.

Yeah, and somebody just accused me of recency bias. Isn't like we're picking how teams are playing. The games this week so what happened recently matters. I mean if I'm not paying attention then you know someone's saying I'm not paying attention enlighten me. I watched the entire Louisville game, and I think that that team's issues aren't easily fixable when you're playing a really good opponent. Right, right.

And South Carolina has a better defense than, let's say Clemson did backdoor into the ACC championship game, South Carolina still might have a better defense than anybody Clemson might play going forward after that. Yeah. Is that is that fair? I think that's fair. Yeah. People in the chat are accusing me of being recency biased but like that's what they were saying last week when I took Kansas. The game is this week. What happened in the last

few weeks matters. Yeah. And the games are something like I'm not saying that Clemson cannot win. That's what gambling is. But if I had to pay. Yeah, my money I would rather I'd feel safer with it on South Carolina. I think South Carolina has multiple ways it can win the football game. And I don't know if Clemson has multiple ways. I think you're right about that. And I just, and South Carolina's offense has come around to like this,

this feels very similar to two years ago when South Carolina went out there. The difference is two years ago, South Carolina kind of flipped a switch and beat Tennessee and then beat Clemson. South Carolina has been doing this for a month now, maybe longer, maybe probably since the Alabama game, which they should have won, but they didn't. But they were playing well in that game. This is going to be the only game that South Carolina should not have won was Ole Miss on their entire schedule. Right. They got clobbered that game. Yeah.

So they should have been in Alabama. I'll take South Carolina to cover. You will take South Carolina Moneyline. Producer River has put up a poll. 87% of the chat. Is picking South Carolina in this game. I think we're dealing with a few outliers here. You're getting yelled at by a few outliers.

Ari and it's getting in your head. I don you're you're you're getting yelled at by a few outliers are in. It's getting in your head. I don't think you need to worry about that number one thing I need to work on is who I yelled at and who I respond to. Yeah. Tiger fan 24 Clemson fan. This is a very reasonable take here.

We can win if we show up. If we don't, it's going to be ugly. I think that's exactly right. Clemson can win this game. It's not a foregone conclusion that South Carolina wins. But Clemson has to play one of its better games this season to win it. South Carolina just has to play an average game to beat Clemson. Clemson needs Miami or SMU to lose to get in, right? Or are they like chaos away from being 10 and two and getting in as a third ACC team?

Is there a path for that? I think one of the three lost SEC teams, again, in over a 10 and two Clemson that didn't make the ACC Championship. If Clemson beats up on or looks superior to South Carolina. Does that send a message to the committee? It would certainly help because it would it would put them in the same sphere as

Alabama and Ole Miss. With a fewer loss like which both Carolina as well, we do this every year or every week, but like they lost fewer. They have one fewer loss that matters. It should matter. It doesn't. Who do you think would have played? Who do you think would win if Clemson played Alabama or Ole Miss?

They played an easier schedule. South Carolina. They have one fewer loss because they played an easier schedule. You keep saying that the wins and losses, but it also matters. Did you play an easier schedule? So if you play an easy schedule, you have to you have to live up to the standard of the 14 field. And if you play a hard schedule, whatever happens,

you know, if you play an easy schedule, you should win more games. If you play a harder schedule, you win fewer games, literally one more game. How it works is talking about the way you played in those games should be judged. Like you played a harder schedule and you got your ass kicked in in the games you lost then we don't even have a conversation here. I know,

but you said they have to win more games and they did. OK, but one more win. Then the team that played the much harder schedule does not mean they are definitively a better team or more deserving of being in the playoff. I know, but if being 10 and two isn't

enough, then what you're saying is that if you have an easy schedule you have to have playoff season. Let's say Clemson kicks the crap out of South Carolina. I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I know but I want, I want, we're, this is, this is instructive because this is the argument that will happen in the committee room. Yeah. Clemson kicks the crap out of South Carolina. 34-10. We're now arguing between 10 and 2 Clemson kicks the Yeah. And I'm not. I I think if 14 field standard. No, holding them to this standard because they played Georgia like Ole Miss played Georgia and they happen to play some easier games than Ole Miss's other games that they play.

But I'm saying the difference between 10 and two and one loss for Clemson is the difference between getting into the 12 team and the one and the 14. That's all I'm saying. They have to be a one lost team that is potentially a conference champion. Yes, when you play in your schedule, you need to win more games. When you play a harder schedule, you don't have to win as many games. That's logic. Right, but then at the end of the year, SMU will have played an easier schedule because Clemson has played a harder schedule than SMU, right? Agreed. It's similar, but they've played so they'll both be two lost teams and played in the same conference, but they did play in the same conference and SMU didn't lose any games in the

conference and beat the team on the road that Clemson lost to at home in conference. Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out a way for Clemson because 10 and two with a blowout loss in your opener. I don't think there's a way for Clemson because 10 and 2 with a blowout loss in your opener. I don't think there's a way because unfortunately the thing that would help them is beating South Carolina and the same thing that is holding back South Carolina like South Carolina beats Clemson, they're not getting in either. Like the thing that's holding back South Carolina would also hold back Clemson. Yeah, the team's in your way. Yeah, if you if you would have told me Clemson will be 10 and 2 at the end of the year and their only loss would be in or they only have one loss at ACC play I'd be like they'd probably be like the 11 or 10 seed. Like that's what my assumption would have been.

Right. year and it just sucks because we're talking about at the beginning of the show. Alabama getting in as a three loss team after losing 21 to three or whatever it was on Saturday to Oklahoma, but Clemson hasn't been good enough like I just don't know. I really just don't know if I'm like 100% on board with that. That's all well, we're going to get the Miami Syracuse game because all of this conversation may just blow up. Because the most important metric that you can go off of, the most important one to me, is your record.

That's why they keep them. All the other things are secondary and ancillary. I can make a schedule where my record is going to be a hell of a lot better. But I start at record Yeah, see you're the reason we're gonna get a bunch of shitty non-conference games Because if you say that then teams will schedule the worst possible opponents to make sure that they don't lose games So thanks. Sorry for that Talk to Clemson about how the merits of scheduling Georgia let them know them know how you feel about it. If they'd beaten Georgia, they'd

unequivocally be in. Win. But they have nothing to gain from it. Oh no! If they'd beaten Georgia, they'd unequivocally be in. They would have gained something there. And if they did play Georgia, they would unequivocally be in. They got their ass kicked, which showed us something. And if they didn't play them at all, they would have. Thank you Ari for the crappy games. We're moving on. It's your fault. We're gonna get crappy games in the future. Just you. You think that I have that much influence? Just you. Yes, it's your fault. I wish I had this much influence of like cash coming into my account. Okay, what

can I do? It's my money and I want it now. But that's the thing that it's not my fault. It's your fault for saying the reason why they can't play that game is that they're out if they lose it. You're the one holding them out. You know, you should reward them. I want them to be rewarded, but they don't get rewarded for getting their ass kicked. You got to win it or at least show up. But also too, what if we came up with a way where if you play a top 10 team in the first two weeks of the season, like your it's weighted less than other games would be on your schedule or something. But because you have an environment where you're you're burying Clemson's entire season because it didn't play well.

I'm not burying Clemson's entire season. If they'd beaten Louisville, there wouldn't be a problem. I know, but they they actually do. They had a pretty good year as long as they didn't have a dogshit year. And we're talking about them like they're like a four loss team. Right. Well, again, they lost in a neutral site. Wasn't it in Atlanta to to Georgia? It was in Atlanta. By 100. Clemson is very close to Atlanta as well.

But they basically navigated their schedule. Also too, they got their ass kicked by Louisville. I don't even know why I've become the champion of Clemson. I don't understand why this is the hill you've chosen to die on. Because it's not Clemson. It's situations like Clemson. Like, there's other teams that are gonna be in this situation. If Clemson lost to Louisville on like a controversial call or a last second kick, like we're having a very different conversation right now. Very different. Look, Coral, Andy, move on. Ha ha ha ha ha.

Ha ha ha ha ha. Oh, thank you, JC, in the chat. I appreciate that. Squirrel! All right, we are gonna move on. First, we're gonna talk about prize picks. Download the app. Best daily fantasy game in America.

Use the code staples when you sign up. Play $5, get $50 instantly. They are populating the college football board for this week. It will get more populated as the week goes on. You play some Monday night football right now, though. Like, some clashing allegiances here. J.K. Dobbins Chargers running back 48 and a half rushing yards more or less.

Could J.K. Dobbins a Buckeye help Jim Harbaugh's team win a game? This is a Harbaugh bowl on Monday Night Football. You've got the Chargers and you've got the Ravens. Jim Harbaugh versus John Harbaugh for the first time since that Super Bowl where the lights went out. Come on, Justin Herbert, 257 and a half passing yards more or less, Derek Henry, 86 and a half rushing yards

more or less, you decide you play as few as two squares. The more squares you play, the higher the potential payout. Download the prize picks app, use the code staples, play $5, get $50 instantly. All right, Ari, we have a lot more games to pick. This show is gonna last forever if we get sidetracked every single time. But I think, I actually think we need to have that argument

and we can have it on a lot of these different games. So we've had the argument. So if you want us to have the argument again, refer back to the Clemson South Carolina pick and you'll have it. Oh, Scott wants to know if Ari's going to cancel Thanksgiving as well. Because Ari, it's Ari's fault. They're going to be crappy games going forward.

Just remember to blame him. We do need to have a sides discussion. I know we do it every year. But yes, point this week, Thursday show Thursday's show. I'm going to tell you right now, I'm going to take you behind the curtain. We're going to pre-record Thursday's show on Wednesday so everybody can have fun with their families on Thursday. Thursday's show is going to be a mailbag show. So get your questions in. Andy Staples on three at gmail.com Andy underscore staples or at Ari

Wasserman on social media. Send us your questions. 30 minutes of that show might be us arguing about Thanksgiving sites. Warning you now. Warning you now. It's a Thanksgiving show, that's what you should get in the mood, but like I'm gonna give you a hot take before to go into it.

Save it. Oh fuck. Save it. Save it. I wanna hear it on Thursday show. Is I have a feeling I'm going to go ballistic here. I'm already mad at you for making crappy games in the future. Let's not make it worse.

Alright, let's say in the SEC though. The Champions of Life Bowl. Tennessee at Vanderbilt. Tennessee Open is a 10 and a half point favorite has moved up to an 11 and a half point favorite. If you don't know what I'm referencing when I say Champions of Life Bowl, it's 2016. Remember, Tennessee beats Florida and Georgia, then somehow doesn't win the SEC East, then loses to Vanderbilt and doesn't even go to the Sugar Bowl. That's when somebody asked Butch Jones before the game. What will you tell them?

Cause you didn't win the SEC East and they had a chance to championship and they blew it. And he's like, well, they're champions of life. And then later on signing day, he talked about signing people with five star hearts cause they didn't sign anybody with five star ratings. What a time to be alive. That was Ari.

Vandy only has one loss by more than 11 and a half points is that South Carolina game it was at home. Do we think Tennessee can do that to them? Do we think Tennessee can win by 12 or more because this Vandy team has proven very tough to beat by that to them? Do we think Tennessee can win by 12 or more? Because this Vandy team has proven very tough to beat by that many points. There are two ways to look at it. One, it's Tennessee is finally firmly in the playoff. There's no more debate to be had. They go out and take care of

business. Nico has his best game at the right time and Tennessee goes into the playoff feeling great. And then there's also Tennessee, grab at central. Like we're not gonna pick teams here. We're gonna pick spots. Do we like this spot for Tennessee? Cause this seems like a tricky spot for Tennessee. I don't like the spot. I don't like this spot either.

If they were coming off a win at LSU, I'd almost feel better about Tennessee in that situation. Like now Vandy's pissed because they didn't play well at LSU. They should have played better. Like I don't like this at all for Tennessee. And Vandy. I really don't. Vandy doesn't seem as dangerous as they did a month ago anymore. Like the Vandy steam kind of ran out a little bit. So like the Diego Pavia mania that we were all in in the middle of October is gone and people might forget that it exists and it still exists.

Like, I think Tennessee is going to win. I think this is going to be a pretty close game, like just because of the spot that we're in and like how many times to. And it's funny that you brought up the champions of life. But like a team finally breaks through and gets where it wants to go. And then like like grab ass waiting for him right around the corner. Uh huh. I and we've been we've been circling this game for a long time. Like this was

this isn't this game means something to Vandy like the the whole state champs thing like this means a lot to Vandy. It should mean a lot to Tennessee. Here's the thing. I think Tennessee wins this game. I just don't think they cover. And the thing about it is this is where we're gambling in real life. Branch off.

It doesn't matter if they cover. It doesn't matter how they win. Tennessee just needs to win by one point and they are probably in the college football playoff. They are almost definitely in the college football playoff. win by one point and they are probably in the college football playoff. Like almost definitely in the college football playoff. Win by one point. Don't care how you do it, figure out a way to get it done. That's why I'm taking Vandy to cover because I do think they're gonna keep this close. But all Tennessee has to do is win by a point. Yeah I think Vanderbilt has a tremendous amount of pride to be playing for here. And I think that can be a powerful thing.

Like I don't know, you know, the mindset of a Vandy fan. Like I think that there was a time where some Vandy fans are probably upset because they felt like they had a chance to have a very memorable season go out the window. Cause it really could have started what, seven and O? Yes. And they were kind of in the Texas game.

They beat Auburn. Like, I think that they beating Auburn on the road is kind of just proof to me, beating Alabama that they can exist in these games. Tennessee's offense is not nearly as explosive enough, unless it has a huge coming out party, which is possible. I think Tennessee wins, but I think that Vanderbilt's gonna give them every ounce that they can handle in this game.

Yeah, that's what I'm taking vanity cover. I don't. I don't think they're going to win, but I wouldn't be shocked. The most shocking and that's what you're talking about picking spots. The most shocking outcome to me in this game would be Tennessee beating them by 20. Vandy winning by 20 would also be shocking. Yeah. But any, any winning will be shocking result would be shocking to me.

I think Vandy winning would be relatively shocking. I don't know that would shock me. I think it's possible. Uh, Andrew points out that Hypal has covered every time versus Vandy, but. I think we're very clearly. Understanding this is a different Vandy team than those. Yeah, yeah, it's a solid team.

It's a good team so you know I like. I like talking about Tennessee and it's like looking down at the camera at River just to see like what his facial expressions are going to be. I'm sure you guys know this by now, You know, I like I like talking about Tennessee and it's like looking down at the camera at River just to see like what his facial Expression is gonna be I'm sure you guys know this by now, but producer rivers a huge Tennessee fan and He's he's feeling pretty good right now, and I just don't know like there are just certain fan bases, too It's like can't you just have something nice that just like I just feel like there is a certain element of like Tennessee

Fans and Texas A&M fans are like shaking hands of like, can't we just be happy? Like, you know, I feel so bad for Tennessee fans that they lose this game. Like, I will feel awful for them if they lose this game because this is like, how many times do you have to get kicked in the nards as a fan base? Like, and this would be the cruelest one of all, like lose to Vandy and miss the playoff because you lost to Vandy. But if Tennessee loses to Vandy, at least we don't have to see Alabama in the playoff. That effectively eliminate them. Yeah, that's probably true because it, yeah.

I think you're probably right about that. Alright. So maybe Vandy will be doing America a favor. Yeah, Tennessee would be blocking Alabama from the playoff at that point. Let us move to a game that probably the first one, the entire SEC in. I think they should put Vanderbilt in this fricking thing. You know how hard their schedule was this year, Andy? That record stinks because they played the hardest schedule. Put them all in.

They lost to Georgia State, Ari. The, the, all. Non-conference losses matter. It's just the ones in conference that don't matter. You can lose to anybody but Mississippi state in the sec. And it's okay. But if you lose the Georgia state, you're freaking out. You're out.

And put the, I didn't put the egg bowl in here, but that's another one. I'm watching like, Oh God, that could be, that could be bad. Yeah. Cause Ole Miss has nothing to play for right now. But let's go to a different rivalry game where one team has very much to play for. Both teams obviously playing for pride. Michigan, Ohio State.

This would have been the first game we talked about any other year. Ohio State is a 20 and a half point favorite in this game. Ari, I know you're not a throw out the record books. Anything can happen in a rivalry game person. I usually am. I am not in this case. I think Ohio State is gonna take out three years

of frustration on Michigan on Saturday. Yeah, you do? Every single year we- Are you gonna talk in your mic? Every single week, I'm just like, I'm warming my hands. I got some takes. Give me the graphic. Give me the graphic. I don't have a mic issue. Oh, you have an issue when you don't talk into your mic and we can't hear you. I got to get that stand. When you're here, can we go together and do it like a little Black Friday

shopping? Yes, we're going to film our trip to Best Buy to get our mic stand. I might just buy a new mic because this mic is like 10 years old and it's going to crap a lot on me at any moment. So I have two ways of thinking about this. It's Ohio State is much better than Michigan at every position on the field, maybe outside of defensive line. They're at home. They have a playoff spot locked up so they don't have to like feel like losing ruins their season. They play looser than they usually do.

They get out to an early lead and then Ryan Day, who I assume or know, I don't know how much how he feels about Sharon Moore, but I know how he feels about Jim Harbaugh, just completely runs the score up and wins you know 60 to whatever. Like because I think that that Ohio State has that in them. Like if they get rolling, I think that they could do it. On the other hand, I was a kid during the 90s, but while being on the beat was very, very familiar with what happened in that decade. And there have been John Cooper. Oh, boy. I and I realized this comparison calling him John around. It's a different era. Like John Cooper was terrible at playing

Michigan. But I think that the same elements of what occurred in the 90s are existing right now, which is Ohio State has a stark talent advantage, which they've had at least two of the last three years and still lost. And there is a mental lockup with that team. In the building, people are tense, they're tight, they're not approaching the rivalry the right way, you know?

And you know Ryan Day needs this. He knows he needs this. And I think that the needing it aspect of it, if you come out and you turn the ball over or something goes wrong at the beginning of the game, Michigan is coming off a game in which it scored 50. Like, is this a possibility that Michigan, because Ohio State is tight and tense, keeps this game closer than the talent suggests that it should?

No. You don't think that's possible? No. No. I okay. I think Ohio State rolls in this one. I really do. And maybe if I'm proven wrong, great. We get a really interesting game to watch. But I do think because all of this has been loaded on to Ryan Day and this team like you have to beat Michigan. If you don't beat Michigan, you're utter failures. If you don't beat Michigan, Ryan Day, you better don't even come back to work on Sunday. Like, okay, I think he's gonna say message received and I think he's gonna take care of business. So, and of course we have the hardest picture

of Ryan Day in the world running as I say that. I do think they take care of business here. I think they roll. I will take Ohio State cover the three touchdown spread. I have to go look this up because I don't remember. But do you know who was on Ohio State's team in 1996? Can I name some names off Orlando pace? Can you just want me to do it?

Want me to have fun? Yeah, yeah, it's it's a. Go ahead, go ahead. Joe Jermaine was our quarterback. He played in the NFL, but it wasn't really an NFL guy. Joe Montgomery, the running back, played in the NFL. Michael Wiley, Nick Goings, David Boston, Orlando Pace, Mike Vrabel, Andy Katzenmoyer, Ty Howard, Damon Moore,

Sean Springs, and Antoine Winfield were on that team. They lost 13 to 9. I remember that game game because that game affected the team I was on. Because remember I was on the Florida team. That was, we lost to Florida State in Tallahassee. Ohio State losing, opened the door. And remember at the time it was the bowl alliance.

So the Big Ten champ was going to the Rose Bowl no matter what. So they were trying to set up a one versus two game in the sugar bowl, but you couldn't, if one of those teams was in the Rose Bowl. So there was very much a split national title possibility. All of that was going on. And then needed Jake the snake plumber

to lose to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl because Arizona State was very good that year too and had beaten Nebraska. So in fairness to like Michigan had a bunch of NFL players like Bob Greasey. That was a very good Michigan team as well. But Michigan had one NFL player on their entire defense and Ohio State scored nine points in that game. So like and like that is just the 96 year you they lost in 97 I think to all I'm saying the Yeah, I mean by that standard games happen. Yeah, by that

standard this Michigan team if we're if we're talking about that this Michigan team has more NFL players than that 96 Michigan team. There's there's no world where Michigan's defensive line has been spending two weeks preparing for what is going on with Ohio State's offensive line and they just terrorize Ohio State's offense the entire game. Like there's no route to victory here for you. Like no. Okay.

And I'm sure it'll make the hype video, but that's okay. I don't think so. We got a bonus pick Ari. I didn't have this game in here, but Jacob, Jacob paid $5 in the chat to do this. Jacob, do you see Florida State beating the Gators at the risk of sounding like a homer? No. Like the way Florida's playing with DJ Lagway starting

and Lagway was much more mobile against Ole Miss than we saw against LSU. If he can move around, it's gonna be very tough to stop him. Yeah. Yeah. so sorry, Jacob. I don't know. I don't think that the Florida State can beat any power for team at this point. To be honest, so no, I don't think no. I realize Florida is on a high and you think OK, maybe they take Florida State. I

don't think they're going to take for state lightly. I think I think that particular team that Florida teams been through a lot this season. They would like to finish. On a high before they go to the bowl game. So also through the wins, the winning those games and Florida is personal for those teams like exactly. It's a big deal. Yeah. My official pick though, I think is Michigan plus 20 and a half. Michigan plus 20 and a half. Oh, OK, so you will take Michigan to cover. I do, yeah, I think that Ohio State. I've picked Ohio State to win each of the last three weeks

or three years, sorry, and have been embarrassed by it so. I think Ohio State is much better and I definitely could see a scenario where Ohio State runs it up because the thing that's scary is that even if it's not if it's not a close game, Ohio State's not going to take their foot off the gas. So like that's where that that point thing scares me. But I think that Michigan has some sort of voodoo dust over Ohio State the last three years and I don't know if I don't think it was voodoo dust. I just think they had a better team. They didn't two and three years ago. They did last year. But they did on the line of scrimmage two and three years ago, and I don't think that's the case this year. Yeah, I don't think that Michigan's gonna win. I'm just taking 20 and a half points. I also try to say it's the same thing I did earlier.

It's the same thing I did the Georgia Tech Georgia game. I understand that Michigan's just gonna run the clock the entire game and try their best to make it a one possession game in the third quarter. then once you get to that point like Pucker season starts like that could happen. I covered a lot of games that would be the smart way to play. I don't know how it goes out there like yeah. Yes, but how many times has Ryan Day ran up the score on anybody? Not many, not many. Now he would he would love to do it and he has the team to do it and there's no excuse for them not to but I do think that there is a tension in that building right now during this week and that does manifest in the psyche of the players

That's all It just stinks that Michigan's been so bad this year because no one could see it But could you imagine if Michigan was nine and three right now? Oh We would be having a very different conversation. If Michigan was nine and three and catching 10, everybody would take Michigan Moneyline. Yeah. So they're not good enough to make the jump. Producer River points out that Ryan Day ran up the score in Indiana last week.

Did he? I mean, if you call that last touchdown running up the score. I mean, I guess. We had to pause our show from going live because we were waiting to see if the other team got up on that thing. It was very annoying because we were waiting to see if the other team got a chance. It was very annoying because we wanted some separation between that and the end of the Florida Ole Miss game.

I mean, it didn't quite work out. Yeah, I don't know if you run up the score if we're pausing the show to make sure that they don't win. Poor Ari got the whole Florida Ole Miss game spoiled because he could hear the crowd noise because I was in the press box. Yeah, they did win 59-32 in 2019 in Ohio State's 2019 team, which I think was Ryan Day box. Yeah, they did win 5932 in 2019 in Ohio States 2019 team, which I think was Ryan Day's first year, right? Yes. Was one of the best teams that Ohio State's had in program history. So if you believe that this is one of those teams,

I feel bad about this pick. I want to change. Because everything in my brain tells me Ohio State, right? They've got better players or whatever all the things that conventional wisdom that you're using. I just think this game is different man, and I and I don't know. I don't know what it is, but it's possible that it's close. It's so funny because I feel like we had the same

conversation about Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia Georgia Tech and you and I came out on other opposite sides of it. Yeah. For the same reasons. So yeah, I, again, it's going to be a weird week. Last week was a weird week. Speaking of weird, this is, this is the one that right before the show started producer river goes, just to say this one thing USC money.

Notre Dame at USC. Notre Dame is a six and a half point favorite. Notre Dame need. Okay, actually before I say anything that sounds definitive, I want to ask you this. Does Notre Dame need to win this to make the college football playoff? I'm not 100% sure of that anymore, but I think so. I think so as well, but I think you may be right. There may be a little wiggle room there. Were you surprised at the spread?

No. Were you? I was surprised. I thought Notre Dame would be favored by more. I think USC is a pretty good team that does a lot of really stupid shit. Like put that on a bumper. That's the t-shirt right there. Like when you watch them play you feel like they should be better than they are in my opinion. Yes agreed. So I understand to a certain extent of like if this

spread was Notre Dame minus 11 and a half or something, like I would take USC, I think. That's a lot of points. You just got to get to a point where you have people taking action on both sides. And I just, I feel like Notre Dame is going to win. I don't know that they're going to go in and blow them out. And also too, when you, when you go back to the way that I broke down the Colorado game before they lost to Kansas, I kind of feel the same way about Notre Dame here a little

bit of like, it's been a long time since something was hard for them. Like we've gone two months, but since Notre Dame has been in a game that it could lose, like are we just going to anticipate that they win nine in a row to close their season without having to break a sweat? Like, is that where you basically predicted that after they lost in Northern Illinois? So they would win all their games. I didn't predict that they would not sweat. I think that like there is an ease meter here.

And I don't know. I think that Notre Dame is going to have to sweat at some point to get into this thing. There's no way that it could be that easy. So I think that Notre Dame will win. I think they might even cover, but like the spread makes perfect sense to me. So this is again where gambling and real life diverge. All Notre Dame needs to win is by one point. Doesn't matter how they win. So it's just like Tennessee and Vanderbilt just win the game.

I still think Notre Dame covers here because I, I, I can see this kind of shaking out like last year's USC Notre Dame game, which I realized was at, it was in South Bend. So different circumstances, but where it, if things don't go well early for USC, Notre Dame just kind of starts to pour it on. But if Notre Dame makes a couple mistakes early, USC is in this game, then it goes four quarters. It's a one possession game. But I will take Notre Dame to just kind of wear them out. The Georgia Tech Notre Dame game is the game I'm kind of comparing this to. to wear them out. The Georgia Tech Notre Dame game is the game I'm kind of comparing this to. We're pretty good team, pretty good opponent. Now granted, Georgia Tech did not have the quarterback situation at one of that game, but it was close for a half and then Notre Dame just wore

them out. I can see Notre Dame just wearing them out and covering. So I'm going to take Notre Dame to cover here. I want to actually ask you for like real life to help on real life gambling for me. Okay. So when Notre Dame lost to NIU, we were together. We were. Yeah. On the way home from that trip, I put in a $400 bet that Notre Dame would make the playoff at five to one. Do you think I should take the points here as a semi hedge in real life? No, because I actually think well, like we said, because I can middle it. Think it's there's a non zero chance that Notre Dame makes the

playoff as a two loss team. Yeah, they don't have any good enough. I don't think they have good enough wins, man. I don't think so. But Ari, what happens if all the two lost teams lose this week? It's definitely not a non zero chance. Yeah, that's that's the problem is

if all the two lost teams lose and they're the only ones left, like they're probably still getting in. Yeah, I'm just sitting on. I went too grand if Notre Dame wins on Saturday and I'm thinking about maybe putting 500 on. USC just to cover the six and a half because if I don't then I went 1500 night. There's a chance I can middle it.

Now you may win both ways, right? You may win both ways in that situation. Like Notre Dame wins by five. They make the playoff. I cash the game ticket and then I cash the the I'm just trying to like think this through. So I think it is a likely outcome that Notre Dame just leans on USC in the second half and USC just breaks Yeah, and it becomes a 17 point game something like that And I and I think I would live with that I might I think I'm gonna take USC plus six and a half in real life just for the total bet amount So I'm living in a free roll hope for a middle and if Notre Dame wins by 100 then cash the 1500 or 1600

Like I think that's what yeah But you're also good in the middle. Like the middle, the middle is a real possibility there. Yeah, which would be great for you. But I actually think that Notre Dame will cover this. I think that it won't be easy. I think they'll probably win by seven to 10. But I'd like Notre Dame in the game, like for shows purposes.

All right. Moving on to a rivalry game. Another rivalry game where the better in 2024 team has lost three in a row in the series. Washington going to Oregon. Oregon is a 19 and a half point favorite. Oregon has lost three in a row in this series, two of them last year. The regular season game in the Pac 12 championship and then obviously the regular season game in 2022.

Ari, I feel about this one the same way I feel about Ohio State and Michigan. I think Oregon is going to take out three losses worth of frustration on Washington. If this game were in Seattle, where Washington hasn't lost this year, I think that might make me feel a little bit differently. But since they got to go to Autzen, it's a huge number, but I'll take it. We're going to cover. Yeah. I kind of, it's just like the same basic numbers, the Ohio state Michigan game. And the team that's struggled in the rivalry is the monster this year. And the team that's been winning the rivalry recently is the underdog. Dan Lanning probably wants this game every bit as much as Ryan Day wants the Michigan

game right now. I don't know if this rivalry is nearly as intense as the Ohio State Michigan game, but it's still a pretty big deal for these programs. So you know, I've never won an Oregon bet my entire life. If I ever take the points, they win by 50. And if I ever bet on them, they can't get a first down down for some reason I don't I never know what side to be on but my gut here is that Oregon because the because you saw the the differential between Washington at home in the way right like Washington at home is like yes very different team so the fact that it's at Austin I think that they could win this game at 20. I'm gonna leave. I asked an interesting question in the chat. Did Washington expose the blueprint to beat them though? I don't excuse you. Did what did Wisconsin expose the blueprint to beat Oregon?

I don't think they did. I think that had a lot more to do with Oregon was on the last game of a long stretch of games. I think it was the longest stretch anybody had to play all season without a bi-week because everybody's got two bi-weeks this year. I think they just caught Oregon at the right time. I think Washington is catching Oregon at a precisely the wrong time. Yeah. And you know Oregon is clinched for the Big Ten Championship game and it kind of feels like this may not matter at all. But it matters in terms of what it means for the program.

So I think that Oregon's going to roll in this game. They're just a really, really good team and one that I think has a chance to win the national title this year, a real one. Yeah. This is one that Dan Lanning probably gets out a lot of his frustration because remember, those losses to Washington were albatrosses around Dan landing, and he kind of needed the win against Ohio State for us to say, Oh, you can win a big game, because those watching games were all huge games. And they just he couldn't

he couldn't win them. Like he got close a couple of times, but then the Pac-12 Championship game, Washington just sort of put the foot on the accelerator, physically dominated Oregon upfront, and that was the end of that. So yeah, I don't know what's gonna happen in this game. Will Rogers, we think is going to stay

the starting quarterback at Washington. Daman Williams Jr. has been coming in. I think it's gonna be Will Rogers. Yeah, and Tess Johnson's back, right? Yes, Tess Johnson is back for Oregon. So I think Oregon rolls in this one. Ari, let us go to one that is a lot tougher to pick. Farmageddon. Kansas state at Iowa state. We're not picking all the games that

will affect the big 12 title race. Cause I like Colorado, Oklahoma state. I don't think there's a lot of strong opinions on both sides. I think everybody thinks Colorado is going to win that one. Uh, but Kansas state, Iowa state, Iowa state's a two and a half point favorite at home. You know, before Kansas State thumped Cincinnati last week, I was a little worried that Kansas State is just kind of sliding. Now I look at this game like, okay, both of them are back. I even state it's hard. It's crazy because this was only like three-4 weeks ago. Iowa State was the front runner in the Big 12 for a lot of the season and we thought they would be the one

that would control things. They now control their destiny. Essentially, if they win the next two games, they are in the college football playoff, but they have to win this one first. What do we think happens here, but Iowa State also still need some help right in? I don't I don't believe so. I believe if they win, they're in. Okay. If it's a four-way tie, they're in. I don't you would know I guess if you were playing with the calculator. If they win this game, they're in. Okay. I

didn't know if there was any results that could happen that could keep them out but if you're saying that I trust that Iowa State has been pretty money this year And I know that we lost track of them when they lost two games in a row But they've won a lot of closely contested games at the last minute and were in position to do it in Their Texas Tech loss and they gave up a touchdown after taking a go-ahead score with less than two minutes left. Like, I feel like they're very clutch.

And I think that it definitely helps that they're at home and they finally fought their way back into the position that they were in all year. I think that Iowa State is the better football team here. I think that they're at home and I think they have proven that they can close games for the most part in this environment. Like I think that Iowa State is going to win this game and I actually also think that they have a real shot to beat ASU if that's who they play in the Big 12 championship game. I think they have a real shot of winning the Big 12. I also think they have a real shot of losing this game. Andrew in the chat with a really interesting point may favor case state because of the weather. So Iowa State's got to throw it to win case state for the most part is going to try to keep the ball on the ground. If if things work out the way they want it to. It's a two and a half point spread.

Are you know what the high temperature names is on Saturday? Uh 14 degrees 25 high at 25 low of eight clear skies. No snow, no snow. There was a snowy game last year. Last year was a blast to watch in the snow in Manhattan. last year. Last year was a blast to watch in the snow in Manhattan. This is supposed to be clear with a 12 mile an hour wind. It's a night game so it's going to be really cold. But yeah, it's kind of not as bad as that Dolphins Chiefs playoff game last year. That was below zero wind chills. But this will be this will be very very cold. I might go with the team that I feel better about on the ground in this situation especially with only a two and a half point spread. Give me the Wildcats.

Yeah, okay well I'm happy to be on the opposite sides. Iowa State's got really good receivers and they throw the ball very well if you think that they they can't, because it's cold, it's going to be like throwing a frozen turkey out there. Catching a frozen turkey. You know when you were a kid and used to play like those turkey bowls and you would like catch a ball in the freezing cold and it would just hit your finger. How bad that hurt. It's just funny that the kids the kids who grew up in Scottsdale and Orlando are saying this. Yeah, no, not my and when I was complaining of what I was just saying, my

scenario was at seventy-five degrees. So, like I don't know like what it would be like to be fifteen but no, I I I I could see what you're saying. Yeah, I this game was a big weather game last year could be again. Alright, five games left. Oh, boy. It's rivalry week. We get it. You get a jam packed pick show. That's just how it works. Louisville at Kentucky. Kentucky is a three and a half point dog at home. Ari, I'm going to go quickly on this pick because I feel like this is an easy one to make because

Kentucky's won five in a row. In a couple of instances, Kentucky's not been the better team. Kentucky wins in this rivalry. If you're going to give me three and a half points, I will take three and a half points. Give me Kentucky to cover. Yeah, Kentucky's just like broken right now though, aren't they? They put up a decent fight against Texas last week. I don't think they're completely broken. Yeah, they did put up a pretty good fight Texas last week. I don't think they're completely broken.

Yeah, they did put up a pretty good fight. All right, give me Kentucky. Yeah, I just, until Louisville proves it can win, I'm not gonna believe it. I need to see Louisville beat Kentucky on the field in real life before I believe it. That's why I'm taking Kentucky. All right, we go to your alma mater.

The territorial cup. All right, we go to your alma mater. The Territorial Cup. Low key, really bitter rivalry. Arizona State, Arizona, Arizona States, an eight and a half point favorite, which is interesting to me because. Arizona's losses have been by a lot. Arizona State is the hottest team in the Big 12 other than Kansas, which is mathematically eliminated from the Big 12 title race. But if Arizona State is the hottest team in the Big 12 other than Kansas, which is mathematically eliminated from the Big 12

title race. But if Arizona State wins here, I believe they're in unless BYU loses to Houston. But let me check. Let's make sure you vamp and I'm gonna I'm gonna run the scenarios here. How many years ago was it when Arizona gave up 70 to Arizona State? Was that in 2021? I remember I was in Dallas. Yeah, it was it was Kevin Semlin. It was the season Kevin Semlin got fired. Okay. Oh, it was during COVID. It was 2020. Yeah, lost 70 to seven. And I know this is a bitter rivalry, but it's unfortunate. But Arizona, a team

that I thought had a lot of promise this year just kind of stinks, you know, and that's the hardest thing. I feel like this team could have had a real shot like if everybody would have stayed together and you know, Jed Fish wouldn't have left for Washington. I think Arizona would have been good enough to win the conference this year, but they just aren't what they were supposed to be even though they have the best receiver or one of the three best receivers in college football on their roster. I don't love this spot for Arizona because

you know you might want to finish your season sneaking up on your opponent. You know Arizona's state's feeling pretty good whatever but they're not quite playing for anything and then you you sneak up and get a win here. Arizona State is playing really really well and they're very confident in their coach has this thing rolling. Like I don't see how Arizona keeps this thing closed. Andy, I just don't like not not within 10.

Well, and that's the thing. I was just looking at Arizona. Arizona's games now they did beat the crap out of Houston. But they've lost four or five. The average margin of defeat in those losses is 24.3 points. Like they've been getting their clocks cleaned in most cases.

This is one where I feel like if Arizona State comes out hot, Arizona doesn't mount much of a comeback. I think Arizona State covers here. I think they win. And I want to go back. So you were right about Iowa State potentially needing some help. I think they went and I want to go back. So you were right about Iowa state potentially needing some help. I got it mixed up. I thought Arizona state had one little scenario where they didn't get in. It's actually Iowa state. So here, here's the scenario. I thought

so there's one scenario where Iowa state can win farmageddon and not play in the big 12 title game. game and that is if Houston beats BYU. Iowa State needs BYU to beat Houston. Otherwise, Iowa States got a problem. Arizona State is in if they win. Yeah, yeah. They're definitely going to win by 10. I just I feel like the way Arizona has been losing games. This is this is not a great time

to have to play this game for them. So yeah, I'll take Arizona State cover as well and going on the road to TCU and losing by 21. Like there's not a lot of fight there. So let us go to the Iron Bowl. Alabama just lost 24 to three against Oklahoma. Auburn just beat Texas A&M in a four overtime game. So naturally Alabama is a double digit favorite in this game. Ari, I will explain why because Vegas loves history and history tells us that Auburn does not play well in Tuscaloosa. The last time Auburn came within 10 points of Alabama was the Cam-Back game. That was the 2010 Iron Bull where Auburn fell behind by a bunch.

Cam Newton leads them back to a victory. Auburn rolls onto by a bunch. Cam Newton leads them back to a victory. Auburn rolls onto the national title. That was the last time Auburn came within 10 points of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. That is what Vegas is working off of right now. My question to you is 2024 such a different era versus all of these other years that maybe that doesn't matter. This spread is much bigger than I thought it would be. I thought it would be like six, six and a half.

This is a lot of points, Andy, for a game in which I think Auburn could win. Yes. I mean, I'm tempted. I'm going to take the points, but I I gave you crap for not putting your balls on the table earlier. Like what if I what if I took a money line? I don't feel that like maybe because I don't feel particularly

confident about this pick, like I feel very confident about that Nebraska, Iowa one. So you were smart to say what you said there. one. So you were smart to say what you said there. I would not say I would not make fun of you for just taking the points in this game because I do think it's a it is a bit of a a bit of a bridge to Auburn wins outright because they just typically don't play well in Tuscaloosa. But I understand where you're coming from because that's why I asked that question. don't play well in Tuscaloosa. But I understand where you're coming from, because it's why I asked that question.

This is a really weird year. Nick Saban is not in Alabama anymore. Does history that involved Nick Saban even apply in this case? Well, Auburn's getting 3 and 1 half to 1 on the money line. So to me, it's like 3 and 1 half to one in a game that could get ugly. Alabama is down in the dumps. They only score three points against Oklahoma. They run the ball really well. Auburn does. Like I think that there is a way that this game is within question in the fourth quarter. I mean, shit, it was last year and Alabama was a team that

we thought was really, really good. But on the other hand too, it's like, you know, you fall into this trap of we don't really know what Alabama is, and then they come out and play one of their better games. And they end up kicking the crap out of them. Like, I think that's on the table, too. I mean, like, look at like the Missouri game, for instance. And I know that they're the LSU game. The LSU game. Yeah. Like, you know, you play a team that you think could beat you, and then they win by 32. And it's like, holy crap, if Alabama would just play that well every week, they'd probably be number one in the country right now, but they don't.

So like trying to figure out which Alabama shows up is a really hard thing to do. It's a tough proposition this year. But I think that Auburn is the best bad team in the entire sport. I think getting 11 and a half is a lot of points. I'm not gonna take the money line, but I would be very comfortable taking the 11 and a half here.

I don't know what to do here. Cause I think everything you just said is very smart. Everything you just said makes sense. But because weird shit just keeps happening, give me Alabama to cover. Yeah, because that's also weird. Weirdness doesn't always have to manifest in somebody losing unexpectedly.

Like teams playing very sharp, amazing football, you see them playing terribly is also weird. Result. So like if Alabama comes out wins 34 to 10, that would be, that would be kind of weird to me, but also probably. But we've seen Alabama like, and I was going to say, oh, we've only seen them do it at home, but no, we saw them do it in Baton Rouge. Like they look unstoppable that night Yeah It's so weird. I don't I I my brain says do what you're doing But it just feels like everything else is so strange this year. I

Don't know. I don't yeah, give me give me give me Alabama cover and if I look stupid, fine. I look stupid a lot with these picks. Let us go to a game that will affect the ACC title race and potentially the college football playoff race. Miami at Syracuse. If Miami wins, they play for the ACC title. There's a good chance win or lose they make the playoff in that scenario. If Syracuse wins, Miami's done. Syracuse is a 10 and a half point dog at home. Look at the total on this game are a 67 and a half,

and that feels completely reasonable. That's that's banana land. Miami fans are are pooping their pants right now, right? Like this is a uncomfortable spot. This is a scary spot. I don't like this spot at all and look Miami could come out and crush Syracuse entirely possible but there's there's definitely a universe right where this is a shootout back and forth last team with the ball wins game.

out back and forth last team with the ball wins game. You know what? Miami I think is probably more equipped to score 40 than Syracuse in this game, right? Like I'm not saying Syracuse won't score everybody scores on Miami, but. I think I like Miami here. I'm not just going to step my foot into the spot for every pick that I do. I think Miami their

offense when humming is something to behold and I just do not think Syracuse can keep up with that Andy for four quarters. I think this is one of the better offenses that Miami's played. We've seen Miami's defense struggle. And for that reason, I'm going to go the opposite of you. I'll take the points. Yeah. Um, still think Miami wins, but I think this could definitely be a shootout. Yeah, well, Miami could lose, but I also feel like if the shootout Miami could win by 14 because there's one weird

turnover in the fourth quarter of a 31 31 The Louisville game. Yeah, the Miami Louisville game. It's the same thing that happened in the Louisville game So, you know, I think that that's kind of how I feel like it it plays out I'm not saying that Syracuse can't exist in that game. I don't think if they can exist in it for four full quarters before They blow it Yeah, I this is this is Kyle McCord's chance To write his name in the history books. It didn't work out this weekend last year for him.

This is his chance to have it turn out differently. But yeah, I think this is going to be one of the more fun games of the day. I can't wait to watch. Yeah. But let's move to what we think will be the most fun game of the day. The one that you and I will be attending. Going to Kyle Field, Texas versus Texas A&M with a spot in the SEC championship game on the line. The first time these two teams have played since 2011, which was Texas A&M's last year in the big 12, these teams hate each other. These fan bases hate each other.

There's so much going on here. So this is the same push pool of environment, hatred, all that stuff. Yes. But if we took the logos off the helmets and we just discussed who we think is a better football team, we can agree that Texas is six points better than A&M this year, right? Are we on the same page there? I think that's fair. So how much do you think that the environment and the animosity and the layoff and everything else that's at the stake, all that stuff plays into it? I think it's more of a styles make fights thing. I think if Texas A&M is not so good at rushing the passer, I feel very comfortable with Texas in this game, despite the environment.

Yeah. comfortable with Texas in this game despite the environment. Yeah, the fact that Texas A&M can cause disruption of Quinn Ubers in ways similar to the way Georgia did. That is what gives me pause. Otherwise, I'd feel very very comfortable with Texas. Yeah, it's like part of me wants to be like ah the environment's not going to be you can't spend all year talking about this game and then finally getting an opportunity to go, ah, the environment's not gonna be... You can't spend all year talking about this game, and then finally getting an opportunity to go

and how insane the environment's gonna be, and then not take that into account when it comes into the game. I think Texas is six points better. I think that the environment, the 12th man, the situation, all of it, is going to come into play. I'm going to take the points at home. And let's not forget that Quinn Ubers has an ankle injury.

Well, what I was going to say is I'm going to give you a bonus prediction for this. Oh, boy, here we go. Arch Manning plays in it at some point. I don't think that's a very hot take because. You don't? No, because if Quinn Ubers has a bum ankle, if there's a wrong step,

even if you've got to go get re-taped, there's a good chance you see arch manning at some point Or if quinn yours can't move against that pass rush you may have to put arch manning in yeah Yeah, now how much does that change things? Quintineers and arch manning both look bad against Georgia. So I'm not looking at that little period of Arch Manning against Georgia as oh Arch Arch will come in and poop all over himself in this game. I don't think that's necessarily true. I think if you if you had to put Arch in because Quinn is hurt.

And it's just Arch's game at that point. I think he settles. Also, we don't know how the one reps are going to get split up this week. Now with a with a limited Quinn yours, I feel like we learned absolutely less than zero about archmanning in that Georgia game like you and I are. I don't think like we should be judging him based on that.

We have like eight snaps. What are we doing? Like I I Think he is going to play in this game because he is needed for some reason whether it be injury relief or a change of pace or something and How much of the legend would that like both ways? Arch comes in a and is the reason they lose A&M or Arch comes in and is the reason they beat A&M. I'm excited to get down there though. It's going to be wild. Yeah, it's going to be great. I'm going to take the points here. I think Texas is a better football team,

but I respect what the situation is showing and I don't think that like A&M could be possibly more jacked up or playing harder than they would in this game. Ari, I'm going to take Texas to cover here. Okay, I think I think the Longhorns are tired of hearing us say they didn't play anybody that they they actually aren't very good. I think they may come out and prove they are pretty good

because what's what's the thing Texas has been consistent at all? Their defense has been consistently good. Yeah. And they have done a pretty good job, say for a few games in the last month, of beating up on the teams that they're better than. Yeah. So I'll take Texas to cover here. And a Texas Georgia rematch in the SEC Championship game, which I think could be very interesting.

Yeah. Obviously, if I'm wrong here and A&M wins this game, the scene in Kyle Field will be. Just do our podcast on the field for the game, I guess. I don't know. We'll have to check it out. Yes, we will. Just like we did when we were at Ole Miss Georgia,

I want people coming up to us just interrupting. Let's have it. Yeah, yeah. No, I'm looking forward to it, Andy. Just get your ass out here and let's get ready for the weekend. Guys, I can't imagine a more fun rivalry weekend. As you see in this pick show,

there's so many games that we don't know. Like, weirdness could take over. This is going to be so much fun. This week is gonna be so much fun. Ari and I are playing blind resumes tomorrow. We got saucy takes Wednesday. We're arguing Thanksgiving sides on Thursday. 9.30 a.m. Eastern time.

Get your asses here. We're gonna have some fun. We'll talk to you tomorrow.