Andy & Ari On3 - Should the Auburn Tigers MAKE March Madness? NCAA March Madness Bubble Watch | Will the service schools ever be uncompetitive?

Episode Date: March 13, 2026

Happy Friday! Before Andy & Ari head into the weekend, it's a mailbag episode and the fellas answer your great questions. We start with Chris who asks about Auburn basketball's chances in March Madness? While Steven Pearl's Tigers fell to Tennessee on Thursday, will Auburn make the field of 68? Andy & Ari discuss and try to relate it in terms of selecting the College Football Playoff field.   (0:00) On Today's Episode (0:55) Presenting Sponsor (3:00) Intro: NCAA Bubble Watch - is Auburn IN? (19:39) Culver's (21:50) Mid-Majors outspending power schools in basketball? (31:23) P4 Conferences establish an NFL schedule model? (34:53) What if Week 1 determined strength of schedule? (40:35) How long before the service academies are uncompetitve? (48:06) Oil Prices & Texas Schools (55:15) Conclusion: Thanks for watching!   Once Andy & Ari wrap up the Auburn discussion, the fellas switch gears to the mid-major side of things. Rob asks if there's a world where mid-majors can spend more on their basketball programs than power schools?   Moving on to the scheduling side of things, Noah asks if college would ever adapt a scheduling model similar to the NFL. Also, Lawrence asks if week one could be used to determine the strength of schedule for the remainder of the season.   Later, Matthew asks how long it will be until the service academies are uncompetitive? Andy explains why schools like Army, Navy, and Air Force may be set up to be more competitive. Biff Poggi seems to think so as well.   To close, Andy & Ari answer a question from Ol' Sarge on if the latest surge in oil prices will help the Texas schools.   A jam packed Dear Andy & Ari show here!   Andy & Ari are live at Culver’s Game Day Hub in Indianapolis on April 4th, capturing the energy, flavor and hometown pride that make this city come alive on game day. They’re bringing you the best moments from a day filled with games, fans and plenty of Fresh Frozen Custard.   Our show is also presented by BetMGM!   If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works:   1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB. 2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. 3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sure you use bonus code CFB when you sign up!   Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary.   See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.   Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/join   Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/wi5VS4skq2U   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today is Andy and Rion 3 presented by BetMGM. An interesting question about Auburn's case as a bubble basketball team. But it applies to how teams get selected for the college football playoff as well, because losses matter, but so do wins, but which should matter more. It's a very interesting question that encompasses both sports. Plus, is there a concern in the power conferences that mid-majors that don't have football will take really good basketball coaches because they can spend more on basketball players? Also, are the Service Academies at a disadvantage even more in this era of college football?

We'll talk about it all on today's Andy Ryan3, presented by BetMGM. This show is presented by BetMGM, and there's no better place to be during March matchups than Las Vegas. This year, college basketball fans can win a VIP trip to the Court of Legends event featuring the Cavender Twins. Simply place sports bets and your position on the leaderboard will determine if you win one of the 25 grand prize packages. Just sign into your BEDMGM account, opt into the promotion, and start placing sports bets of at least $10 to climb the leaderboard. Make this March 1 to remember. Join the court of Legends leaderboard and make it legendary with BEDMGM. If you haven't already signed up, download that app. Use the bonus code CFB. That CFB is in college football and start wagering with BedMGM and you can get involved in that sweepstakes.

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Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for bed MGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Arion 3 presented by BetMGM. It is a dear Andy, dear Ari Day. We have lots of really good questions in the mailbag. And of course, Selection Sunday is coming up in two days. We will know who is in the NCAA basketball tournament. The bubble will have burst for teams or you will ride,

just bounce on the bubble into the tournament. The question is whether you're bouncing into Dayton or bouncing into one of the tournament proper sites. But, Ari, we have a good question right out of the shoot on this. And I think this is something that as people who mostly cover college football, we have this argument a lot when it comes to college football playoff selection. And I'm happy to have it here because I think it's instructive in both sports. So this question comes from Chris.

I still don't understand how Auburn and Hoops is considered a bubble team. multiple blowout losses in the last 10 games 15 losses already as Chris is writing this wins have to count at some point so Ari Auburn just got knocked out of the SEC tournament by Tennessee they are 17 and 16 overall so 16 losses but 12 of those losses are in quad one they're four and 12 in quad one one one of their wins is against Florida which everybody thinks is the number one see the three and two in quad two games, four and one in quad three games and six and oh in quad four games. But as Chris points out, some of those losses have been pretty bad. Alabama whipped them in the last SEC regular season game. It has not been pretty for Stephen Pearl's team. And what's interesting to me about this is what Chris said. He said at some point don't wins have to matter.

I think he means don't losses have to matter, like piling up of the losses, because wins, in this case, Auburn's got a few wins that suggest that they could actually do something in the tournament, which I think counts in their favor. But they have so many freaking losses. Let's just boil the question down to this.

Yeah. How much do you fall in love with the team's makeup and the athletes on the team and the pedigree of the team or what it's supposed to be, and how much should that take into factor or account by the committee when they're making their field? And I think this happens in football all the time. And it's easier to identify in football because you have name brand teams

that were accustomed to having really good results from that have really good players and really good, you know, athletic ability. But at the same time, there's just something off with them. You know what the comparison, I think is? The accurate comparison, in here. If we're talking about a bubble football team, Texas from last year would be one of them.

But I think Alabama is actually the better one. Alabama is in this position all the time, which is we know they've got good players. And when I say all the time, I mean in the recent past, they were actually the best. But definitely this past year. Because remember, Alabama is in this situation, they've got the win against Georgia, which is similar to the sovereign team going to Florida and winning. they had the wins against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but they also had getting their ass handed to them by Georgia in the SEC championship game,

which is similar to what this Auburn basketball team has had down the stretch. You don't get the 15. The four state loss, which is a terrible loss. That's actually perfect, perfect analogy. Texas wasn't good analogy because Texas had a lot of, I guess, to borrow the term, quad one wins last year. Right. But then they also, you know, looked really bad against overmatched opponents.

They almost lost to Mississippi State. They lost to Florida. Like, I mean, I guess like we're saying the same thing, but I think Alabama is probably a better example. Yeah. Because the Florida State loss for Alabama is one of those is like, what, huh? And then they got destroyed by Georgia the last time you saw them. And I think that's what makes this so fascinating because it's a pretty similar case. Now, like in football, it matters what everybody else does around you, too.

Like if all the bubble teams had lost, Alabama wouldn't have been sweating going into the championship, you know, into the selection. Auburn has taken, you know, has the advantage that like Indiana is not, you know, Indiana lost, Cal lost. The teams that you thought might put up a good fight or might have a better case when all was said and done, did not win in their conference tournaments. And Auburn at least advanced in its conference tournament. Right. I think it's kind of interesting because when you go back and relitigate the way last season went, I think you'll probably find a lot of fans,

maybe probably mostly Notre Dame fans, but maybe even Texas fans to a certain extent, that wonder if the committee should have given more thought into Alabama's inclusion rather than some of the other teams that were on the bubble. That said, I also find it kind of funny. because Oklahoma was not on the bubble. They got in firmly. And then Alabama went on the road and still beat them in the playoff.

So it's like it's kind of hard to say, well, the committee made a huge mistake by putting Alabama in last year because that mistake usually should manifest in like a blowout loss in their first game. Yeah. And that happened. But the thing that Alabama had had wins that suggested to you that they could win games in the playoff, which by the way, they did win one. Yeah. But here's the real question, Andy. and I've actually struggled with this throughout my time covering the sport. And this is especially true during the playoff era, which is how much should the committee,

if at all, factor into the actual talent on the team? And how much do they actually? Like, I don't know. Like, does the committee look and say, well, you know, Alabama had a few rough outings out there, but Ty Simpson's going to be a first round pick. And they have more four-star prospects in their two-de-peach. than the other two teams that we're considering. Is there any thought process into roster makeup when making these decisions?

Or is it only or should it only be your pure resume in wins and losses on the year? That's the hardest part because what's the goal? And I think I'm asking an open-ended question. I don't know that I have an answer to this. I think I have an opinion on it, but I don't know that I have the actual answer. Is the goal to reward the deserving with a spot? Or is the goal to create a tournament with the most teams that can win games in the tournament? That is the question.

And how much should projective metrics be used in trying to identify who could win the most team games in the tournament if you're a B person, which would pick the second part of what you said? Because talent is a reveling. metric or I mean certainly much more than now or before than it is now. But still to a certain extent, you know, it was pretty easy to identify that Ohio State was going to probably have some success last year because of all the players they had on their team. So, but if Ohio State would have lost an extra game or two, then all of a sudden, how much do you rely on the fact that Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith exists and how much

do you rely on actually what happened in games? But I think it's really hard because like I feel like both are important. And I think that you, can I guess which side you are on? I know you say I don't have the answer, but I'm going to guess. I think that you think that the goal should be

to pick the teams that win the most or have a chance, the most teams that have a chance to win a game in the postseason. Is that correct? Yes. Yeah, I think the whole point is trying to win the thing. And I am more on the more deserving teams

because the more deserving teams actually did what they were supposed to do during the time in which you are building your resume for playoff inclusion. And whether that means building a tournament that doesn't have as many sexy brands or as talented teams in it, that's fine. But like, I have a hard time feeling bad. Like, for instance, I don't feel bad for Notre Dame last year. Like, Notre Dame, if you were on the committee, would have been in because if you think that it's about teams that should win the most

or have a chance to win the most in the postseason, then you kind of disregard what they told you during the regular season, which then to me defeats the purpose of having the season. So, like, I understand that Notre Dame was probably a better team last year than Bama, right? And this is a major point of contention because... And this is why when I did my projection on that Saturday, I had Notre Dame in and Bama out. but then if you would have put Notre Dame in over Bama, which I guess you could have done,

then you are disregarding all the things that happened. So like that, and like to me it's like then if you disregard the things that happened, then why did they happen to begin with? So, and I actually think there should be a correlation and there typically is a correlation between teams who do what they need to do when they need to do it and success in the tournament. So, you know, because,

It's like what good did putting Bama in last year do for anybody? I mean, maybe they won a game. They won a game. You're not putting in a team that's going to win the national title. So, you know, it would have been interesting if Notre Dame got in and then won at all. I mean, that would have been possible. Well, if Notre Dame had gotten in instead of Alabama, I think Notre Dame would have been in the spot Miami was in it from a seating standpoint.

But let's say they were in the same spot Alabama was. I think Notre Dame would have beaten Oklahoma. The question is would Notre Dame have been able to beat Indiana? Because it may have been just the road ended at Indiana. Yeah. And the road probably did just end at Indiana. But I think if you get too wound up on the competitive aspect of the actual tournament, then you undermine the entire regular season,

which has been my number one fear with the expansion of the playoffs and the further discussion. And I think with basketball, there are so many more data points that it's much easier to say, let's just pick the most deserving. Yeah, if you're not deserving. When you've lost, when you've lost six, 16 games. It's a lot of freaking losses. I'm kind of just like that in life.

Like, I just want everybody to get what they deserve. And maybe that's like a, maybe that's like a rosy outlook on life. But like if there's a person that works in corporate America that works 60 hours a week, shows up early and puts a lot of pride in their work. And then there's another person who's more good looking who works 30 hours a week but makes people laugh and isn't really as bought into caring about their job as the other person. get promoted over the guy that did, I think that sucks. And that stuff happens all the time.

And like Alabama's the good looking guy with the square draw who makes you laugh. But who do you think should get the promotion, the person who comes in before everybody else or the guy who's good looking? Like it's just, it's maybe that's a terrible analogy, but that's just kind of how I feel about the playoff in general. So in this particular situation, James Fletcher, the third, our resident bracketologist said on three, has Auburn as the last team into the two, going into Thursday's games had Auburn as the last. team in. And I don't think Auburn's going to be hurt terribly by not winning the SEC tournament, obviously. I think they probably are in the position where they only help themselves. And so, I think they're probably in. I think there's a good chance that they're in. Now, they probably have to go to Dayton, if that's, unless some other stuff happens and some people

lose. But I think they're probably in. And then they'll get a chance to, prove it one way or the other. But I feel differently in basketball, I think, Ari, because I don't have a comparison to Notre Dame necessarily because, and really not, we made the comparison with Alabama and Auburn just saying, okay, these are the teams on the bubble of their various, of their respective tournaments. But there really is no comparison. Like, the Alabama football team was so much better than the Auburn basketball team throughout the season. Well, and Notre Dame, too, because there are more bullet points. Right.

The version of the Notre Dame, you know, the basketball version of the 2025 Notre Dame football team would be in the tournament because they have so many teams. They have so many wins and they have had enough data points. Now, they might have been beating middle tier, other middle tier teams. They might not have been seated where they would think they belonged, but they would have been in the field. They would have been in a six seed instead of a one seat, for instance. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, it is interesting because I do think that this is an ongoing discussion, most deserving versus best. And I often think that most deserving means you're the best because if you are the best, you will play your way in the English. And sometimes it does. Indiana fit both categories.

But I mean, I covered both categories the previous year. And I wonder how many times the national champion was just both categories, probably every time, right? Not every time, but I would imagine. most times. But I covered the 2015 Ohio State team and no one was crying that they didn't make it. Were they the best team in the country? Maybe.

They might have been. Did they do what they should have done or needed to do? No. So you don't get to be the champion that year. And I think Alabama and Clemson did and that felt like a deserving pair of teams in the national title game. So, you know, maybe if you are, and here's the thing, there will be fortunate teams that aren't most deserving that happen to get in based on what's around them.

Right? Because what happens around you, like you said, very important and maybe those teams will have a chance for instance like miami played the fire last year right you know you lose two games in the acc that you probably shouldn't lose that puts you at risk they were certainly at risk um they were the beneficiary of a decision and they made the most of that so kudos to them but if they didn't make the playoff last year they would only have themselves in louisville to blame right so yeah like it's just and sometimes you go on a run Miami got in yeah and he went on a run but you're not entitled to the opportunity to go on that run if you don't handle your business.

Exactly, exactly. So we'll see what happens, but it does look like based on the way the other bubble teams are performing throughout conference tournament play, that Auburn has a pretty good chance of making it. So I do think, I liked Chris's question because I wasn't sure if he meant do wins or losses matter. Because they kind of, I mean, they both do. But I think it depends on the person. how you feel about which one matters more.

I think the thing that's confusing about it in football is, is that the committee changes every year. And I think that it would be cool to really have an understanding of what are you trying to do here from every individual committee. Like if you did like a poll, if you asked every committee member that question before the first rankings were revealed, and it could even be a blind poll, are you trying to find the best or the most deserving? I'd be very curious to know what the breakdown of that is.

and if that changes every year and how they rank the teams, because there is some wiggle room for how they do it year over year. But nobody ever really knows what their goal is. And again, it's different in football. The stakes are higher. There's so many fewer teams. Basketball, we're going to get mad for a day about who got left out or who got put in.

And then once the game start in Dayton, we forget about it. Yeah. And the only key people that actually probably really get mad are the fans of the team that got left out. And if you're mad at him, then ask the coach what happened. And he has probably a pretty good explanation for why. Because then you have to explain away in some cases, you know, double-digit losses. So Stephen Pearl would have to explain away double-digit losses.

Why didn't you make it, coach? We've got another question that combines the worlds of college basketball and college football. But first, we need to talk about April 4th in Indiana. Join me and Ari at the Culver's Game Day Hub. We're going to be there. There will be frozen custard. There will be butter burgers. It's walleye season at Culver's right now, Ari.

This is... Talk dirty to me. Yeah. We love Culver's. We're so excited to be back with them. And I can't wait to be in Indy on the day the semifinal games. The energy in that town on that Saturday is unmatched. It's a perfect big event city.

and Culver's is the place to go, the place to be. And I cannot wait to talk to some of you guys to enjoy a frozen custard with you. We had so much fun with Culver's at the draft last year. I guarantee you it's going to be just as much fun or more at Indianapolis, downtown, April 4th at the Culver's Game Day Hub. Remember we were getting out to stuffed cheese curds last year? Oh, yeah. Oh, I remember.

The kids love these. I got to tell you, Andy, if we're going to be sponsored by a fast food restaurant, I am so happy it's one that's legitimately good up and down. Like, their menu from top to bottom. So good. So, so good. And a place that I frequently enjoy before we were lucky enough to have a partnership with them. So I'm so excited to get to Indy, perfect city, perfect setup. If you remember what we had with them with the NFL draft last year, the setup was amazing.

It was top notch. the food was excellent, the people showed up. If you are wandering around Indianapolis and you are going to the games or you're not, and you live there and you want to come say hi, it would be awesome for you to not only see us, but no, if you hate us, at least you get some good Culver's food.

That's right. You get some frozen custard. Also, if you can't come, make sure to enter the Culver's swish, dish sweet sakes now through April 5th for your shot at $2,500. So April 4th, that's that Saturday. Come see us at the Culver's Game Day Hub. downtown indianapolis next question comes from rob and this is one that also involves college football but not in the same way so this is a college basketball college football combo question

is there a world where mid-majors start out spending the power conferences for basketball players a school like right state doesn't have a football team to fund so do you think they could or would start paying players significantly more to lure them from power conference teams those small schools would likely to, would you more likely to have their own Cody Campbell, but if they all put $20 million in a basketball, the big schools would struggle to keep up. So Rob, this has happened already. Now, not at the level of right state, but you have to remember, we who just watch football look at the power conferences as the ACC, the Big 12, the Big 10, and the SEC. In basketball, there is another power conference. It's the Big East. What is the Big East? What is the Big East?

have, well, what do the other conferences have that Big East schools don't have, Ari? Football programs. Correct. Now, some of them do have football programs like Villanova, but Villanova plays FCS football. And so that it's not the same thing. And it's a big difference. And so we've actually already seen this. We saw this last year when Kevin Willard was leaving Maryland for Villanova.

Because think about this. Maryland's a big 10 job. Can you imagine a football coach leaving a big 10 job for an American job willingly? Well, the thing that I don't know about this is the economics is that, like, Wright State doesn't have a football program, right? Right. You know who does Florida. Okay.

So, but because Florida is so much bigger than Wright State, don't they just have enough money to fund both? They do, but here's, this is where I'm getting into the Big East thing, because the Big East thing is interesting because Big East is different. So Villanova can spend more on players than Maryland, probably. And that's probably why Kevin Willard left. Villanova has a football team, like I said, but they're not putting anywhere near the money into football that a Big Ten school is.

So, like, if you're Kevin Willard, you know you're going to lock up with Mike Loxley every year at Maryland, who's going to get more? Who's going to get more resources? And I think it's interesting, you know what, didn't happen at Maryland this year. Ari? They had a quarterback that played well and they didn't get him stolen. They kept Malik Washington. Yeah.

Yeah. It would just be interested to see, like, how much money is Villanova spending on their roster versus how much is Maryland spending on their basketball roster and how much is football impacting that? I would bet Villanova spends more. Yeah. But because remember the rule. If they do spend more, is it because they, because Maryland can't or is that by happenstance?

It's probably because they can't. So you have the rev share quote unquote cap, which we've talked about this week, is not really a cap. But also you do have to, if you want to spend over the cap, you got to raise that money. You've got to find people willing to pay it. Corporate sponsors or donors or like you have to find that money somehow. Now, the revs share money, you can just take out of your athletic department budget. So if you are Villanova, the cap, quote unquote, for this year was 20.5 million. You can put together one hell of a basketball team if you put most of that toward basketball.

And that doesn't even begin to scratch the surface on what you might be able to do from an NIL standpoint to Villanova crazed fans in that area. Correct. So you can put together a much, much better basketball team. I'll give you another example. The Providence job just opened up. Kim English just got fired as the Providence basketball coach. The Boston College job is open in basketball. One's an ACC job, one's a Big East job.

Which one are you taking? Probably the Big East job. Yeah, you're taking the Providence job. Because you're going to have more money for players. Yeah. I love this. The case for why Creighton, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Zayton, Acrean, Liberty, Old Dominion, Old Dominion, football team.

Georgetown. Akron has a football team too. It's FBS. I mean, I guess there are a few that have FBS programs like you, Yukon and Temple. Well, Akron and Miami of Ohio both good, and they play FCS football. But Yukon, though, look, Yukon's decision to go back to the Big East and be independent in football, and I know they want to join a conference in football. But Yukon's decision to go back to the Big East allowed them to be as a big.

good in basketball as they are. Yeah. Because they do not have to put those resources. They're not expected to, and I said this, would Dan Hurley at Yukon, it might not have even happened because Hurley's a smart guy. I don't know if he would have, but when I did the re-rank of all the realignment moves

in the 2010s, people were surprised at how high I had Yukon because they're like, wait, Yukon didn't even get in a conference and they didn't leave their conference in football and go independent. What are you talking about? If Yukon was in the ACC right now, imagine how much they'd have to pour money into being the 12th best ACC football program. And I know what you're going to say, Jim Moore and Yukon beat the ACC champs last year in football. They did.

You're right. But year to year, it would cost them a lot of money to be number 10. or number 11 or number 12 in football in the ACC, which probably would keep Dan Hurley's team from being as good as it is. You're muted. I don't remember muting myself. Did you do that river? No, you muted yourself.

Okay, I didn't blow my nose or do anything that would have needed to be muted. So that is not me. Maybe you just knew you were going to say something bad. I don't know. Wright State needs to go find a billionaire to go, you know. It's Wright State needs a billionaire. All of those ilk need to find their own billionaire. What I will say is in basketball,

we talk about how much time does it take for a billionaire to infiltrate the college football elite and how many, like Texas Tech, for instance, like they are in the process of building in order to compete with Oregon at the end of the year, right? If you got a billionaire to get excited about Wright State basketball, you could create a Sweet 16 team in one off season. Oh, instantly. Yeah.

Yeah. Like the building of, of it in basketball is nowhere near what it needs to be in football. Right. Because you can create a Sweet 60 team really with three players. Three really good players, you can do it if you pick the right ones. So yeah, but in general, I think what Rob is asking about already happening, coaches are well aware of it.

You would rather be a big East coach, I think, than fighting in the bottom. of the ACC or the bottom of the Big Ten or maybe the bottom of the SEC for resources with a football coach. And I also think, too, that there is like a vanity aspect of a two where some coaches want to be the only game at their university. Yeah, you are the rock star if you're the head coach at a big East school, the basketball coach. Some people are like, it's the greatest thing in the world to be the basketball coach at Alabama or the basketball coach at Ohio State because you have all the resources possible to be very good, but people don't obsess over you the way they do with the football team. And then there are some people who just want to be the biggest show year round. So if I were a basketball coach, I would probably want to be the biggest show. But see, at Alabama or Ohio State, you know you're going to get the resources either way.

I don't think Nate Oates is having to fight Kail and Aborful Resources. I think both of them are getting what they need. Right, but then you also can fly under the radar a little bit because people are attention. Yeah, yeah, of course. I mean, Todd Golden was busy winning a national title at Florida while building Napier was about to get fired. And what do you think people were more fixated on? You live there.

Exactly. I know. He told the story on this podcast a million times when I covered Ohio State basketball and football at the same time. And during that time when I was on the basketball beat, they had John DeBler and all these great players, William Buford. They had a Final Four team. And no one cared at the same rate. Now, I'm not saying people didn't lock in and watch the games or show up or root.

but in terms of the obsessive message board people who are analyzing. You're much more interested in and did the backup right guard twist his ankle. It's the same practice. Yeah. It is amazing. But yeah, it's exactly the opposite of Villanova. Villanova actually, like their FCS football program is historically very good. But I wonder how many Villanova students even care.

I don't think they do. Yeah. So good question. question, Rob. All right, let us, let's get a scheduling question for Noah. Do you ever see a powerful conference establishing a season-by-season scheduling model similar to the NFL when the conference play a relatively difficult first-place schedule the following year, which I think that's really interesting. Now, the NFL schedule is not as flexible as people, as I think people think. Like there, yes, you do have a last play schedule and a first play schedule.

But really, that's only a couple of games because you play your division eight half the season. Right. You play your division opponents twice. And then you have these, you have two divisions that you rotate through year by year. So you know, like if you're an AFC East team, you know this year you're going to play all of the NFC East and all of the NFC West. And so. And it also doesn't help. Yeah, it doesn't.

It doesn't really change anything. Because the one, because the- The Jess could be better over, traditionally over the last 15 years if those schedules actually mattered. Yeah, the teams go up and down so much year to year that it doesn't really make a difference. The bad franchises stay bad.

But I think it would be much more interesting in football if they did that. In college football. Like, let's say the first place team in the SEC was given the toughest schedule in the SEC the next year and the last place team in the SEC was given the easiest one. Yeah. You could like, especially in the big 10 in the SEC, like you, that's a big difference.

It's a huge difference. And then I also would find it abusing that if they rewarded the bad teams with easier schedules, if people would A try to like tank games, right? Like if you're having a bad year, then you know. If you're already, you're going to go five and seven or four and eight, you might as well just. What's going three and nine? Yeah. And then secondly, even if you didn't tank games and you tried with a good faith to be as good as you could, you were bad and you got an easy schedule, I am also amused at the notion that you would then be criticized at the end of the following year if you happen to be good against that good schedule about how you didn't play anybody. Because like playing good teams is like in the NFL that the Patriots just taught us this. It doesn't matter who you play. There's no there's no schedule analysis that is going to reward or hurt you based on that. You might be in.

They also got hammered when they played the actual best team. No, I know, but the Patriots weren't ever in danger of making the playoffs because their schedule sucked. You just, your schedule is your record in the NFL. And in college football. And their schedule in part sucked because they were bad last year. Now, maybe it doesn't matter because if you finished last place in your conference the year before, the year before, you're probably not thinking about the CFP the following year. Like it's, I mean, sometimes it happens, but very rarely.

So, but I do think it's funny that you would be. penalized if you ultimately had a great offseason, improved your roster dramatically, and we're actually really, really good. And then all of a sudden, the biggest neg for you in the college football playoff this course, the following year is you didn't play anybody. Yeah. So, I mean, I do think that, you know, the conferencing scheduling is an ongoing discussion. How many games you play, obviously was the hot button issue, but how do you play them and

how do you make them equitable? I just think in college football, it's too hard. So I've got another scheduling question from Lawrence that kind of dovetails into this. And this is more of an out-of-conference situation. What if the first week this season determines strength of schedule? For example, each conference ranked their teams 1 through 17. Then the ACC number one played the Big 10 number one, SEC's number three versus Big 12 number three, et cetera. Whichever conference had the best record would get a strength of schedule push when the committee was evaluating.

I could live with that. I think that would be fun. He just tried for a Big 10 SEC challenge? Yeah, but not a big 10 SEC challenge that has set seven years in advance. He's saying do it after week one. I think more realistically, you do it after the previous season. You'd rank your team or rank who you think is going to be good coming back and match them up that way. You'd probably have some home and away concerns because you probably need to tell this pool of teams that you have a home game this year.

And this pool of teams you have an away game this year. but you could create some really fun matchups. Like, for example, what would we want, let's do an SEC Big Ten challenge right now. How would we set that up? We get one this year, coincidentally. We get Ohio, St. Texas, and we get Michigan and Oklahoma.

I mean, it's not that hard. That's pretty good. So you would add Indiana, Georgia, right? Yeah, right. You would just go Penn State, Florida, Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, Oregon, Alabama, Indiana, Alabama. And it's like, I mean, you could do it on the back of a napkin at a fast food restaurant. Absolutely.

It would be pretty easy. And I noticed there's some subjectivity of like ranking teams one through 17 or one through, that's a good average between 16 and 18, right? So ranking those teams because there is some variability in the off season in terms of who's going to be great and who's not. Like for instance, Indiana might have been the number one overall seed last year. I don't think they'd be the number one overall seat in that conference heading into the following season. No, but I think we're, I think we now give them the benefit of the doubt. Did you see that they are in that MGM, like the third highest favorite odds to win the national title next year?

Isn't that crazy? I'm not surprised. Yeah. People believe in Signetti. I'm not surprised. But I would love that. That one I think would be better for the sport than if you stink, you get the easiest conference schedule next year. because I don't like incentivizing losing if we can get away with it.

I think that fact finding for the good of the following year by giving us good games between high level competition is like the best idea ever. Yeah. And it would make it so much easier to compare at the end of the season. And we get to watch. Because there would be more data points. Now, you know it the people from. Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, and all those teams would say,

it's not fair that we automatically get a top five opponent. Just be good. I know, but if you're complaining about scheduling now, could you imagine if Georgia had to play Ohio State every year? You'd actually need the committee to reward the tougher schedule. You would need them to reward scheduling intent. Yeah. But it would be great if we could just get as many power teams to play as many power teams as

possible. We get more context and then I think that the the CFP deliberations committee, the committee's deliberations is just so much easier, which is part of my argument for quit canceling games. They need the information. Yeah. Well, this would provide a lot of information. And you could do like you could mix up the challenges every year. Like one year have SEC Big 10. Next year have Big 10, Big 12. Next year have ACC SEC. The ACC would be easy because you've already got a bunch of games already scheduled. Yeah. So I think it would be a lot of fun.

Big 10, Big 12 really gives us much information, but, you know, I'll take it. I can still like to see it. Like, I don't, I don't mind that. And what if we're wrong, assuming that one league is so much better than the other? I mean, it would be kind of crazy if the Big 10, Big 12 challenge happened. And it was just like a 500 record, both sides. But I think it would be educational. But I think what would happen, though, is that I think that the Big 12, actually, the bottom half of the Big 12 would probably be pretty competitive with the bottom half of the Big Ten.

I think that the top half of both conferences would be a bloodbath. I think so. But I don't know. Although I think Texas Tech games. Right. Now, Texas Tech played Oregon, and they didn't score. So that's, that's, that's. the risk you take. But yeah, I think ultimately we would love to see Big Ten SEC. That would

be the, I mean, Texas Tech last year, you put up the Big Ten graphic would have been able to beat USC, would have been able to beat Penn State, would have been able to-Texis Tech, Iowa would have been a three to two game. But I think they could have beaten Iowa. I don't know if they would have been able to beat Oregon, Ohio State or Indiana, but I think that Texas Tech could beat anybody else in the conference from last year. And maybe next year's team will be able to beat one of the big three, because you don't know how good they're going to be. But, yeah, you know, I mean, if there is a system that somebody could make work

that gives us more non-conference games against power opponents, whether it be a structured tournament or not, I think it's better for the viewing experience. It's better to test teams' medals. And, of course, gives more context of the committee when they need it desperately at the end of the year. Our next question comes from Matthew.

How long before the Service Academy has become completely uncompetitive in college football? NIL has obliterated them in the other sports already. Interesting point, Matthew, because I actually think the way the system works now works to the Service Academy's advantage in football. Because, Ari, what does it take to be good at football? What do you need to have? What do you need to do?

This seems like a riddle to me. Are you asking me what a player has to do? What does a team have to do? What things can help a football team? be better, even if they don't have as much talent as a team they're playing. Continuity. Continuity, that's right. Teamwork.

Intelligence. Vibes. Chemistry. All things that the Service Academy teams have in droves because you can't take transfers. You're either in or you're out at the Service Academy. So once you start, you can leave, but they're not bringing in somebody two years in. Like you have to go through the plea of year. You have to do all these things.

That's the requirement for everybody in the academy. So they get teams where the guys stay together for four years. And I think that matters. They're very well coached. Jeff Munkin, Brian Newberry, Troy Calhoun, all very good coaches. They're also populated by very smart players. It is very difficult to get into the service academies. It is very difficult to succeed academically at the service academies.

I think this is helpful. and no less an authority on college football, do not take my word for it. Let's go to our man, Biff Pogee, last seen as Michigan's interim coach this past year. So Biff said, I think we will see Army-Navian Air Force produce increasing wins over power-for schools in football.

Older, more cohesive, and mature teams are really tough to beat. No emotional vampires focusing on the portal in NIL. This applies to the ivies in the FCS playoffs as well, deeper in the turning wins. I think Biff's on to something here. I think he knows what he's talking about. Yeah.

Because the players that were going to the service academies before are largely unaffected by what the changes imply now. Correct. Correct. They were going to the service academies for various. So I got talked to by the service academies when I was in high school. I don't know that I eventually would have been offered by them, but I had good enough grades to get into them.

And for those who don't know, unless you have a parent serving in the military, you have to be nominated by your sitting congressperson for your district. So it is not easy to get into these things. And this applies to the athletes to go to the school there too. Now, obviously they have a system where if they want you, it's a little easier to get nominated, but it's not a slam dunk. Like, you've got to have really good grades. And but they're very upfront with what the commitment. is. There's a service commitment after you graduate where you need to serve in that branch of the military. And I think it's six years right now. But it is a serious commitment. And they don't want to recruit people who aren't willing to make that commitment.

And so I think you're right, Ari. I think the people they would be recruiting have not changed one bit. And then you get those people and they're together. They want to be together. They are a learning to work as a team anyway in school and on the football team. And yeah, they're not worried about the portal because they want to graduate from the Naval Academy or from the U.S. Military Academy or from the Air Force Academy. And by the way, it's already kind of a minor miracle that these guys have been able to compete with big time college football programs for the past 20 years. Like moving forward, I actually don't mean, because NIL was present in the question.

I don't even know how NIL has any impact on them. Well, and the other thing that's interesting is, remember, you do get paid as a student in a service academy. Not because you're an athlete. They all do because you are going into that branch of the service. They are training you to be part of that branch of the service. And so. And what's NIL doing? The thing that I think is interesting, I think the question has got it a little bit backwards because

ever since the beginning of NIL, teams have gotten worse across the board. Yeah. Now, it doesn't mean that they're not good, but it's not like NIL has turned in and turned like 2020 Bama into something even better than that. No, they've, they've changed the disbursement of talent, which then has made it less top heavy. So maybe that means that more teams are pretty good and it might be harder for Navy to win against the middle tier team now. I don't know. I mean, you can put yourself in a pretzel kind of thinking about it, but I don't know that there's some sort of, you know, financially backed system that's creating an unbeatable force for these teams that

didn't already, you know, faced large obstacles to overcome already. Yeah. But I would argue that like since Navy and Army have joined the American, they've been pretty successful. Yeah. They're two of the better programs in the American. Let's unpack what I said, though. Do you think that because NIL exists and now the middle tier American team is better

than the middle tier American team four years ago. Does that make it harder for Navy Army and Air Force to win games? Is it better though? Because if the second you got somebody good in the American, some power commerce teams taking him. I do know that the 10th best team and all the power conferences is better than they used to be. Right, because they're taking all the players from the American, the Mac, and the Mountain West. Maybe it doesn't impact their level.

That's what I, it's harder to take those players from Army. And then there are transfers who live. leave, but again, it's not most of the team that's thinking about that. Yeah. So I think a bad ass players there over the years at those places. They have. I mean, Blake Horvath's coming back, baby for Navy. I know.

Yeah. So I don't know. I just, I think, and I talk about this with a coach who was at one of the service academies and has now moved on to a school elsewhere in the group of five. And they said that it was much. easier coaching the players at the Service Academy. They knew what you were doing. They understood because they've been there. You're training the freshman every year, but that's the only people you're training. You're not bringing in a whole new group of people who need to learn how you do

things. Right. Yeah, I mean, continuity and coach speak and everybody banning together by the arm to accomplish a common goal is very coach-speaky stuff, but I kind of believe it. So, Yeah, it's not an accident. I think that Posey's on to something. I think, you know, Matthew probably, you know, seen it happen to the other sports, but I actually think the fortunes of the football teams are going to get better because of this.

Last question from Olsarge. Old Sarge is an A&M fan. How high will the oil need to go before Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas, and SMU monopolize the top of college football? As we record this, Ari, crude oil futures are at $93.77 a barrel. They are up $7.70 today. My electric car is in the garage charging right now.

Oh, so you're not contributing to SMU and to Texas A&M in Texas and Texas Tech. See, I'm stupid. I don't know, but my assumption is that they need oil to generate the electricity. There's a Billy Bob Thornton speech in Landman that you probably need to hear. I'm saying it doesn't impact my car bill at the moment. Yeah. So I get, we're hooking on to the news here where obviously the price of oil is skyrocketing right now because of what's going on in the Middle East. The price of gas is skyrocketing right now.

It will make some of the more well-hill boosters of the Texas schools even more well-heeled. They will make more money off of this. My understanding, and again, if you have ever met me, you know I don't know anything about anything outside of college football. But my understanding is that the oil prices are high at the moment because procuring it has become more difficult, given the path that it has to travel in the Iran area. So the people who can sell it and move it easily, which is actually the domestic producers, our domestic producers can do that right now. Are they price gouging? They're not price. It's just price sensitive.

I mean, supply and demand. But are you, so the people who are selling oil at the moment are making more money per barrel. And the, and the futures market is not necessarily today. It is for contracts coming up. Okay. So because you're placing a bad essentially, yeah. The moment, the prices of the oil have gone up. And then now the profit margins for the same barrel for an American company have risen.

Am I correct? Yeah. And also there's an oil price sweet spot because if it gets too high, it could be problematic as well, long term. So. Yeah. So I don't know how long this conflict is going to last. So we're above the sweet spot right now. The sweet spot is considered to be $70 to $90 per barrel.

And now what is it? 93 as we're recording this, though going up as we talk. Yeah. So are people in Midland getting richer right now is the question I'm asking you? I think right now. Okay. So a little bit more. But here's my thing about all this.

You can have all the money in the world. You still got to pick the right players. You still got to coach them better. I realized that everybody thought, for some reason, decided in January that Mark Cuban had spent a fortune on this Indiana football team. He hadn't. they didn't spend what Oregon spent. They didn't spend what Texas spent.

It's funny how that became a storyline after they were good. Trying to fit the narrative. Retcon it, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, the question is as if oil goes up and continues to stay up and it becomes a more profitable situation for the type of booster that would be supporting those four programs, how will that be? I would argue that they already have the richest booster.

or some of the rich. Yeah, that's the other question too is that like, are they already, aren't they already so rich? They don't know what to do with their money. That's how they're doing this to begin with. Yeah. I mean, I just, yeah. I mean, I think that the question was probably kind of like just like trying to latch on

to current events and maybe make a joke. But I don't know that I think that the current situation in the Middle East or the type of, you know, financial burden that Americans are facing right now from a gas perspective is going to really enrich the Texas football program. No. And also, again, they're already rich. They can already spend a lot of money. They already spend among the most, you know, Texas Tech and Texas and Texas A&M, their rosters were among the most expensive last year. They got the results they got. None of them were the national champion. But that said, could I see Texas winning a national title in the next five years? Yep. Texas A&M? Yep. Texas Tech? Maybe. Maybe, but Texas are A&M for sure. SMU? Maybe. We saw it make the playoff in their first year in the ACC. So I, but I don't, it wouldn't be because they have the richest boosters. It would be because they have rich boosters and they're coached competently. Like I'm, that's, it's interesting because this, think about this group of coaches, Ari. Steve Sarkeesian, Mike Elko, Joey McGuire. Ret Lashley.

I mean, we have faith in all of those coaches, right? We trust all those guys. Yeah, for sure. So I think I think that's more of it because all of these big schools have money. They have rich donors. Some of them make shoes. Some of them make oil. Some of them make microprocessors.

Yeah, if you're a billionaire and then you get an extra billion dollars, your life changes zero. Yeah, you're still a billionaire. Yeah. Once you get to a certain level of wealth, which I think is where the people who support these programs currently are, you know, you get richer on paper, but the execution or the use of that money doesn't change.

Right. So, yeah, I think it's more the onus is on Steve Sarkesian, Mike Elko, to select the correct players, train them properly, deploy them properly. The resources are there. it's really on the coaches to get it done. So, but there's probably a little more money. To ask is probably a little bit easier if you need something.

And now you can maybe still have a waterfall in your locker room. Yeah, yeah. I felt bad for the people who make water room, locker room waterfalls. Those guys, I remember, he's going to feed their families too. Ohio State.

Can be giving all the money to players. Introduce their waterfall in their stadium. I mean, sorry, in their locker room. and they invited the media in for a tour. And I remember I was like 25 and I had no money when I was thinking of myself, what an enormous waste. It's nice. Like, it's nice.

But does it do anything for anyone? No. No. Well, we hope this show has done something for you this week. We hope you have enjoyed it and it is helping you get through the Interiminal College Football offseason. But also, we've talked a lot of basketball. Selection Sunday, coming up in a couple of days. Monday we'll have a bracket. On Monday's show, we will break down the bracket. We'll have some fun with it. We'll have bet MGM lines for everything. We'll talk about the best bets in the tournament.

We might do like mascot, bracketology. Have you ever done that where you just take the mascot that mascot kick everybody's ass all the way through the national title like the dogs who like push with their nose like the ball down the stairs and whatever bucket it land and kind of the same deal right something like that i i just i always like the the you know now the problem is the natural disaster mascots always win yeah so so like when miami's in the tournament you have to pick miami yeah like there's no bear in the world that can they can handle a hurricane yeah Cyclone. What would a cyclone versus a hurricane?

Who would win that hurricane, right? I'll take the hurricane in real life. I don't know, Jay Lucas done a good job at Miami, but T.J. Osselberger at Iowa State's pretty damn good. So, that's, Iowa State is really good at basketball. Toledo would be a problem in the NCAA tournament, though. It's a rocket. We'll talk to you on Monday with a brand.

It in hand.