Andy & Ari On3 - Stars DON'T Matter? College football's new normal | How many teams are CAPABLE of a title run in 24?

Episode Date: January 4, 2024

Ari Wasserman of The Athletic joins Andy to discuss the idea that the Superteam Era might be over. Michigan's win against Alabama showed that a team that doesn't stack top-five recruiting classes can ...beat one that does when a national title shot is on the line.That probably wasn't true five years ago, but changes in the sport (transfer rules, NIL) have made it possible to build a deep roster without being a perennial high school recruiting juggernaut.That brings up an interesting question. With the 12-team College Football Playoff starting next season, how many teams will enter the season with a real chance at making a national title run. It's a LOT more than it would have been in 2019. Today's show is sponsored by PrizePicks, the easiest way to play daily fantasy. All first time users that deposit and use the promo code ANDY will receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100. If you deposit $100, PrizePicks will give you $100. If you deposit $50, PrizePicks will give you $50.Visit https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/ANDYThis show is also sponsored by Factor, the best ready-to-eat meal delivery service out there. Busy holiday season? Don't worry. Factor handles lunch and dinner for you with a variety of delicious chef-created meals delivered right to your door. Visit Factor.com/Andy50 to get 50 percent off your first order.(0:00-3;14) Intro(3:15-11:09) Shea Dixon of On3's The Bengal Tiger discusses LSU coach Brian Kelly firing his entire defensive staff. (11:10-40:33) How the Rose Bowl broke Ari Wasserman's Brain(40:34-53:06) Early Candidates for 2024 National Championship(53:07-54:51) Next, it's time for Dear Andy.(54:52-58:38) Should Kalen DeBoer have had Michael Penix Jr. kneel instead of hand off?(58:39-1:05:48) Who could be next year's Washington?(1:05:49-1:08:22) Who performed better vs Iowa Defense(1:08:23-1:12:34) Cross-sport comparisons.(1:12:35-1:19:01) Mascot deliciousness and mascot fights.(1:19:02-1:19:49) ConclusionWant to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube! https://youtube.com/live/0fML4r2HVis

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Andy Staples on three. Very, very special show for you. It's a Dear Andy show. We've got your questions and you have some great ones, including one involving mascot fights, which I cannot wait to answer. But we have another special treat for you. My former tag team partner, Ari Wasserman,
Starting point is 00:00:21 joins me because we had to talk about the column that he put up on The Athletic on Wednesday where he said, maybe stars don't matter. I mean, when you change your entire life ethos, that requires an explanation. So it is a really good discussion because I do think college football has changed considerably over the last few years. And Ari breaks it down really well in that column. And so he and I are going to talk about everything that's changed, what it means now, who can win the national title now, who can win the national title next season. That list, I think, could be pretty long. And Ari does a really good job explaining why he's kind of changed his mind on this.
Starting point is 00:01:04 And for Mr. Stars Matter, that's a pretty big and bold move. But before we get to that, we've got to talk some changes on coaching staffs. The miniature version, North Carolina fires Gene Chizik, defensive coordinator and defensive line coach Tim Cross. We figured that Mack Brown was going to part ways with Chizik. There were some questions going into the bowl game where it was kind of hinted at that this was coming. Chizik came back from working in TV for a while, just like Mack Brown did. But Chizik, other than the very beginning of this season, it just never seemed to quite work out.
Starting point is 00:01:41 That was the smaller version of the staff changes the bigger one was at lsu where brian kelly clean house pardon the pun uh matt house the defensive coordinator was fired at a cost of six million dollars in buyout money and then also corners coach robert steeple safeties coach carrie cooks d-line coach jimmy, also fired. So basically, LSU is revamping its entire defensive staff after having a horrific defense opposite an incredible offense. So a Heisman Trophy winner, two incredible receivers, record-setting offense, and a defense that simply could not ever get it done. And the bowl game against Wisconsinisconsin same deal wisconsin scoring
Starting point is 00:02:25 in ways that you never saw them score this year against anybody but they did it against lsu and so lsu with the big change plus remember lsu is also the market for an offensive coordinator because mike denbrock left for notre dame so lots of changes there we talked to shay dixon from on threes the bengal tiger on the On3 Roundtable channel. If you're not already subscribed to the Roundtable channel, subscribe after the show, of course. Hopefully you're subscribed here at the On3 channel. But the Roundtable channel where we discuss a lot of breaking news. So it's where you want to go right in the immediate aftermath of breaking news.
Starting point is 00:03:02 So we talked to Shea about those changes and yeah this is kind of looking familiar for Brian Kelly even though the circumstances are a little bit different than the last time he had to do this you have seen a Brian Kelly revamp go well but I'm sure this is not what they wanted as they're coming off two double digit win seasons. They had a Heisman trophy winner last year, but you saw it again in the bowl game shade. Like their, their defense was just awful. I think that was the final straw. I mean, there was buzz around here that yes, there were going to be staff changes,
Starting point is 00:03:38 but that maybe it was the, because the reality is the personnel isn't up to LSU standards and they've gotten back to back top five recruiting classes right now and on three. And that's exactly what you want when you're the head coach at LSU. But the reality remains that when you have the number one offense in college football and they will finish that way, Washington is the only team that could have caught them and they're not going to make up that gap against Michigan, I don't think. So average yards per game, LSU finishes number one, the defense's finishes 108. And if you're wondering how many teams are out there, there are 133. And the difference between 108 and 133 is not that many yards. So in reality, Andy, you're looking at a team that had the best offense in college football and the worst defense,
Starting point is 00:04:25 and it cost them games. You look at Ole Miss, and if they don't lose that Ole Miss game, let's just circle one of their losses. You should not ever score 49 points and put up 600 yards in a game and lose. You don't lose that game, and what, they're 10-2? They're in the New Year's Six Bowl. You're 10-2 next year as an SEC team, you're probably in the playoffs. And I think that what we're seeing here, and you can speak to this more than me. We've been around a long time, but you've covered all of college football. I've been stuck in the LSU wormhole down here. But I take it to mean that Brian Kelly's not messing around.
Starting point is 00:05:02 This is it for him. It's I've won a championship at the FCS level. I was great at central Michigan, Cincinnati, Notre Dame. I went to the sec, which I knew would be expanding and bringing in more teams because I wanted to prove I could win a championship and do it at the highest level. And for him to hand everyone, he fired Andy was handpicked. These were all of his hires two years ago. He inherited nobody to then two years later say I'm firing every single one of you on the same morning just speaks to me that hey, this is a guy who is very serious about whatever
Starting point is 00:05:37 stands in the way between me and winning or this program and winning is going to have to just become out of the picture. And the craziest part right now is that he fired every defensive coach. LSU doesn't have an offensive coordinator. Mike Denbrock went to Notre Dame. So you're looking for an OC, a DC and plenty of defensive staff coaches. It's so weird to be talking about when he took over a team that had 38 scholarship players that had the first losing season since Jerry DiNardo in 99. That's when Saban got here in 2000. And he turns it around.
Starting point is 00:06:12 And within two years, wins the West, wins 10 games, wins the Heisman, has the number one offense in college football, wins 10 games, but says not good enough. Not here. I'm firing everybody. I think that was what's crazy right now is that after that amount of success, you're after two new coordinators, not one. That's Shea Dixon. You can catch that full interview on the On3 Roundtable channel. Like I said, you want to subscribe to that as well as the On3 main channel
Starting point is 00:06:40 and On3 Recruits where everybody's breaking down the under armor all america game so lots to talk about that brian kelly situation it sounds like 2016 at notre dame the difference is they weren't four and eight last year now as bad as that defense was it was as unacceptable for lsu by lsu standards as four and eight was at notre d, but it is a complete revamp that will happen with the LSU staff. And remember, there's a lot of really good players there. You've got Harold Perkins has one more year of college football before he's off to the NFL. Will Campbell and Emery Jones, their offensive tackles, they were great as freshmen and sophomores. So they've got one-year college football.
Starting point is 00:07:29 Garrett Nussmeier, we think he's going to be a pretty good quarterback for LSU. So this is going to be a very fascinating time in Baton Rouge. But speaking of fascinating, one of the more fascinating human beings in the world, Ari Wasserman, will join us next. But first, we have to talk about PrizePix, because PrizePix, which is America's most fun daily fantasy platform Ari Wasserman will join us next. But first, we have to talk about prize picks because prize picks, which is America's most fun daily fantasy platform and the easiest and the best, they've already got squares out for the national title game.
Starting point is 00:07:55 Usually, you wait until a little bit closer to the game, but they're getting you ready to go. And I tell you what, the Michael Pinnock square for passing yards is really interesting because you're looking at it 300.5. That is a lot. It is also 31.5 yards below his season average. But that is out of respect for the Michigan defense, which has been incredible all season. J.J. McCarthy, 100 yards fewer in his square. So you can say, I think this is going to be a shootout.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Go more for Pennix, more for McCarthy. You could go less on Pennix, more on McCarthy. If you think that McCarthy has a bigger game against that Washington D than he did against Alabama's defense. I'm curious about which McCarthy we see. Is it the McCarthy we saw in the fourth quarter of the Alabama game? Because that guy is going to throw for a lot of yards. But if it takes a little while to get him going, then maybe it's a less than game. Roma Dunze, the Washington receiver, 97 and a half yards. Jalen McMillan, 67 and a half.
Starting point is 00:09:04 There's a little more wiggle room for Michigan. Roman Wilson, only 51 and a half. Cornelius Johnson, 41 and a half. But the question is, again, how much will Michigan throw the ball? How much will they rely on the run game? Will they be able to get Blake Corum going early? Will it take a little while? Because once he got going on Monday, he was
Starting point is 00:09:26 impossible to stop in overtime. I think that's the right word for it. But it did take a little bit. And so I'm curious to see if Washington is as sharp offensively as it was early in the Sugar Bowl. And is Michigan a little bit slower on the getting rolling? But I think Michigan's defense is going to give Washington's offense some more problems. The question is, can Michael Penix get rid of the ball fast? And so you go to prize picks, you pick your squares. The squares I like for quarterbacks, I love these combined pass rush receiving TDs. So Michael Penix, two and a half. So if you think he's going to combine for
Starting point is 00:10:06 three touchdowns, you pick more. J.J. McCarthy, one and a half. So that could be a throwing touchdown and a rushing touchdown for him. It's going to be close. The prize picks folks know what they're doing on these, but this will make for a really fun national title game. If you got a few squares on it, you can multiply your money. You know, if you get two squares, you know, you put down 50, you can win 150. If you get three squares, you put down 50, you can win 250. That's how it works. The more squares you choose, the higher the potential payout. Download PrizePix.
Starting point is 00:10:40 Use the code Andy. They will match your first deposit up to $100. It's a great deal, and it will make this national title game even more fun to watch, although it's already going to be really fun to watch. But download PrizePix. Code Andy. They will match your first deposit up to $100. Now it is time to talk about how the Michigan-Alabama Rose Bowl broke Ari Wasserman's brain.
Starting point is 00:11:09 A really, really fun discussion right now. We welcome a guy who I thought about as I was watching the end of the Texas-Washington game. We actually said it on the show. So on Monday night's show, I said we need to call and do a welfare check on my pal Ari Wasserman because a Michigan-Washington national title game might mean that stars don't matter. And so here's Ari. How are you doing, Ari? The shame tour continues, but I'm happy to be here. I did not think that what we got in the national championship game was physically and I use that word intentionally possible. It blows
Starting point is 00:11:52 my mind that we're in a position right now where teams that have two or three five-star prospects on their entire roster are losing to teams like Alabama, not losing to, beating teams that have 18 five-star prospects and a bunch more top 100 players in the average player ranking for the Alabama roster is a top 100 player. I mean, when you think about that, 85 guys are on average rated as top 100 players on that team and they lost. And not only just lost, but they had major holes and deficiencies that I think were exposed all in the same game. They didn't have an explosive game-changing receiver this year.
Starting point is 00:12:31 As much as Jalen Milrow improved and became a dynamic runner and playmaker, I think that we saw some more limitations that he has as a passer. I'll stop you. The quarterback thing played out in spring practice at Alabama where you're like, Oh, look at all these highly recruited guys that just aren't that good. So I'm now in a position because I used to say it was physically impossible. You heard me say it a thousand times that a team built like Michigan is not supposed to be able to beat Ohio state, win the big 10 championship, win a playoff semi game, and then go on to win a
Starting point is 00:13:04 national title. Now, they haven't won the national championship yet, but being in this position already has disproven my notion that it's the teams that stack players out of the high school ranks at an insane rate that cannot be beaten because they have proven to do so. And Michigan has done this by what I think we'll talk about extensively here, stacking experience, being incredible evaluators, getting the right fits in the portal. And we talked on the phone yesterday about this. But on the final play of the game when there were three yards
Starting point is 00:13:37 to tie the game and extend it to a second overtime, a five-star offensive tackle that was a hit, JC Latham, was pushed over by a three-star transfer who started his career at Coastal Carolina. And in that moment, in those high leverage moments, Andy, that's not the way those battles are supposed to go. And lastly, the thing I want to say is depth is such an important piece of this. When you talk about stars matter, everybody has always been like, well, look at this three star. He's very good. Stars don't matter,
Starting point is 00:14:10 but it's always been about the teams that are most able to replace the players that are injured or not playing well, or are misses with other first round picks and Alabama had multiple deficiencies, both on the roster this year and in this game, that were not able to be replaced so easily. We're talking about a team, Andy, that benched its starting quarterback at halftime of a national championship game or a playoff semifinal, excuse me, and they ended up winning a national championship.
Starting point is 00:14:37 No, it was the national championship game. Yeah. And we're talking about a team that played an entire game with a center who couldn't snap the ball properly. And there was nobody to replace him. So this is a very complex issue. And I think that what I'm, you know, to stop the word vomit here a minute, the thing that I have to understand and move forward is that there is more nuance and it's not so simplistic anymore. Well, it's changed so simplistic anymore well it's changed it has changed and so i don't think the people who used to disagree with you this doesn't make them right when they were disagreeing with
Starting point is 00:15:12 you about the stars matter thing you were correct for an entire era of college football probably the majority of the cfp era and most of the bcs era, you were correct. The teams that stacked the most top 100 talent had a prohibitive advantage and you'd see it. Like I'll give an example. When Alabama played Notre Dame in the national title game, it wasn't even close. There was no Notre Dame had no chance. And that's the sort of advantage that, that an Alabama used to have that they maybe don't now. And we'll go back to that final play. Michigan is such an amalgamation of – or an amalgam. I think that's the word I'm looking for.
Starting point is 00:15:55 You're not asking the right person here, but what that word means or how to use it properly. But, yeah, find you someone who can do both. So Derek Moore, the edge guy who pinched down, who actually makes the tackle on Jalen Milrow, in the on three industry rankings, he was the 37th best player in the country in his class. So he's a very high four star. And then Kenneth Grant, top 200 guy, but probably the freakiest athlete on Michigan's team, potentially the highest NFL draft choice on Michigan's team. That's an evaluation
Starting point is 00:16:35 win. Josiah Stewart, evaluation win, also a deft use of the transfer portal. I had reached out to some folks who were on Coastal Carolina staff when Josiah Stewart was recruited. Same high school as Isaiah Likely, who is the tight end for the Baltimore Ravens now, who played really well at Coastal Carolina, but also the same high school as Mikey Sainer still. And if Michigan doesn't have Mikey Sainer still, Josiah Stewart probably isn't coming to play with his former teammate.
Starting point is 00:17:05 Well, the other thing, too too that you have to acknowledge about Michigan is that they've got a very high hit rate when it comes to being able to find these guys and get the most out of them like I think Mason Graham I'm gonna tell you the truth I'm working on a story right now about Courtney Morgan the DPP over at Washington who was the DPP and played at Michigan, played at Michigan in the early 2000s, was the DPP there a few years ago. And he helped bring Mason Graham to Michigan. And he told me the whole story of his recruitment. And I'm kind of like writing about how a general manager of a football program has to try to go
Starting point is 00:17:42 out and beat a team that he helped assemble for a year. And like Mason Graham was a three-star prospect at a Southern California that had no P five offers was committed to Boise state. And they evaluated him for things that aren't really on the NFL combine list. Like how does it's not so much how much you can bench, but how much does that translate to game strength? And they've done a very good job of finding these guys that were lower rated prospects to come in and play much bigger than those have and and i always just roll my eyes at this andy because listen we both always used to joke kirby smart and nick saban also are very good at developing players and finding diamonds and evaluating yes so but when you have the transfer
Starting point is 00:18:25 portal coming in and you're plugging holes and then you have people like mason graham who are playing like first round draft picks despite being overlooked it doesn't show up in in the uh two four or the what's on three yeah yeah sorry i caught myself there yeah yeah it's all right it's all right everybody half the people here used to work there, so it's okay. Yes. Um, but like I, but the thing that I think is interesting more than anything is that it is a combination, I think, of all of it, Andy. It's not just one thing. It is the portal. It is evaluation. It is development, but it also is
Starting point is 00:18:58 experience. You know, they have, like I, I wrote on Wednesday, Michigan's too deep had 3,000 more snaps of experience than Alabama's too deep coming into the game. And I don't know if that is a result of older players or more playing time for younger players earlier in their careers that stayed longer, or just attrition at Alabama where people leave constantly for the NFL or other programs. But Michigan, I think, has kind of hit the right angle at all the different angles, which then put them in a position to win that game. And also we have to acknowledge this too. One last thing.
Starting point is 00:19:35 This Alabama team is not 2020 Alabama. This Alabama team is not the Clemson teams that won the national title. They're not 2019 LSU. They're not 14 Ohio State. I think that Michigan also existed at the perfect time when you start to look around and think, well, Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia all were clearly not peak versions of themselves based on what they are when they're humming at their peak. And I don't know how many times that will happen. So the thing that I've struggled with the most is, is this a weird year that had COVID players that are old enough still on it and everything lined up perfectly for Michigan to make this run?
Starting point is 00:20:18 Or is this the first instance of what's going to be a growing trend? And I don't know the answer to that question. I think it's going to be a trend of more teams capable of winning the national title. But the 12-team playoff changes the math on that as well because that tilts it a little bit back toward the super teams, one would think, because they should theoretically be a little bit deeper. But I don't know. It seems depth is the problem.
Starting point is 00:20:42 Like Alabama did not have a center who they could put in to snap the ball effectively. And that's just in one game all year. Right. Exactly. Exactly. And he got over his yips and played perfectly against Georgia. And that was a big reason why they won. And then it came back against Michigan.
Starting point is 00:21:01 And they couldn't do anything about it. And that's a super team. So that's the problem. And it's sort of like, this is what NFL teams do. Like NFL teams attack the weakest player on the field at all times and just keep going after them. And if you don't have anything better to replace them,
Starting point is 00:21:17 you're sunk. And that's what, that's what Alabama faced up against the limitation that they didn't used to have. Well, going back to Mason Graham, I thought one thing I noticed, I was looking him up. It's very interesting. That's what Alabama faced up against the limitation that they didn't used to have. Going back to Mason Graham, I thought one thing I noticed, I was looking him up. It's very interesting. So he's from Servite High in Anaheim, California.
Starting point is 00:21:39 So Servite is where Jed Fish went to help Arizona become competitive. That's where Nova Feta and TMAC came from. And so Mason Graham comes from a winning program. That's another piece of the competitive characteristics that they're looking for. Jed Fish told us when he was recruiting that 2022 class, he told his assistants, don't offer anybody who's on a losing high school team. You got to get guys from winning programs who we're not in a position to teach people how to win. Like we need people who've already experienced winning and then that'll help us teach the other guys how to win.
Starting point is 00:22:16 Yeah. I told our coaches no high school kids were losing records. We just, we needed to bring winners into the locker room. I think we signed three kids from modern day for kids from survey. One from Bosco one from St. Thomas Aquinas. Obviously, we brought Jaden in as a transfer Jaden Delora, who was a saint, the quarterback at St. Louis that was the only quarterback ever at St. Louis to go undefeated two years in a row. And we took him from Washington State where he was the Pac-12 freshman of the year. So the idea was, okay, how can we surround these kids? We took three kids from Hamilton High School after they won the state championship in Arizona. And that was our goal, you know, because you needed to bring in players that knew what it felt like to win games. So when you were
Starting point is 00:23:03 in the locker room, they could hold the other players accountable for how you worked with. And I thought that was interesting. And so Mason Graham, you get a guy who's experienced winning, understands that, probably understands how to be competitive against some of the aliens that he had to play with on Michigan's D-line, the higher recruited guys. And he was in the on three industry ranking, he was 277 nationally. So he was a four star in that ranking.
Starting point is 00:23:31 Well, that's the thing too. His ranking rose quite a bit in the latter month of his high school career. And a lot of that's getting recruited by Michigan. Yeah, but a thing too that you have to keep into account here is when you look at where these guys were ranked, um, you can look and say, well, Alabama has 50 four-star prospects on its roster and, um, Michigan has 50 and you might call that a wash, but the people who pay attention to the context of recruiting also understand that if you're a top 50 national player and you're a four-star prospect, and if you're a top 400 player and you're a four-star prospect, and if you're a
Starting point is 00:24:05 top 400 player, you're a four-star prospect, but the difference between a top 50 player and a top 400 player is vast. So, um, what Michigan has been able to do is sign these four-star players that don't jump off the page and have offered lists from Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and USC, and Texas. They found those lower tier four-star prospects that are choosing between Michigan and maybe UCLA and a few Big Ten teams. They've come in and found the fit, and then these guys start playing and producing at a level that you would expect from a top 50 player, which then makes the numbers that you find in terms of team total talent to be more irrelevant.
Starting point is 00:24:48 So the thing that I am having a hard time quantifying, Andy, and you can help me out with this, is this. It's not that Michigan's really good. I think Michigan is obviously a very good football team. It is how a team like Alabama could still have one of the most, the second most talented roster in the history of college football teams since we've started tracking it since 2000, only slightly less talented than last year's team, have such gaping holes on their roster that can't be plucked.
Starting point is 00:25:18 I mean, Isaiah Bond played pretty well down the stretch of the season, but they didn't have a dynamic wide receiver room, and that was something we were knocking them for before the year. Jalen Milrow, I think, deserves a lot of credit for his growth and transformation during the season, but I don't know that he is the prototypical quarterback that Alabama wants to have in that spot to win national titles. We've seen what elite looks like there, and it's not that. They're running back. Jace McClellan, I think, is a nice player, but this isn't Derrick Henry. And TJ Yeldon and Alvin Kamara, like you mentioned before the show,
Starting point is 00:25:51 all the same Derrick field. Yeah, they were all there in the same time. And we're also missing the best wide receiver class ever signed, which I think had – 2017, yeah. Was it Waddle, Ruggs, and Devontae Smith were all in the same class and all played together? And it's like that is what super teams are supposed to look like when you have rosters
Starting point is 00:26:09 that are this deep and talented, it's supposed to amount into that. So it's, it's weird for me to quantify why is Alabama on paper? So freaking good, but on the field, not really that spectacular, really any position because they don't get everybody they want anymore.
Starting point is 00:26:25 Georgia gets some of the guys they want. Ohio State gets some of the guys they want. But now also, Tennessee gets the occasional guy that Alabama wants. Texas is getting a lot of the guys that Alabama would want. But statistically, they're still more talented than their previous teams. That's the thing. The 2020 team that was so good. That's exactly what they want.
Starting point is 00:26:44 That's the thing. So that might that was so good. But it's not exactly what they want. That's the thing. So that might be the difference. Yeah. Yeah. It's like, okay, so let's move on to the next most talented guy. But you really do have to fit it into what you need positionally. And I think Nick Saban's always done a great job of that. So this is not to say that Nick Saban suddenly doesn't know what he's doing.
Starting point is 00:27:01 This is to say that it's harder now. Yeah. You have to hit not just out of high school. This is to say that it's harder now that you have, you have to be, you have to hit, not just in, out of high school, you have to hit in the portal. And that's something that Michigan's done really well. It's something that Washington has done really well, but Michigan, especially, I think they have done the best at spot portal recruiting. You know, you've seen lane and Mike Norvell, you've seen them kind of reshape rosters. Michigan has done the best at, we need this, let's go get this. It was Olu Olu Etimi at center from
Starting point is 00:27:32 Virginia last year. This year, Strake Nugent from Stanford, Ladarius Henderson from Arizona State at tackle. They know what they need, they go get it. I would say the one thing they probably could have gotten that they didn't, that they could have gotten just one game-breaking type receiver, I don't even think that game's close yesterday. Well, here's the thing that I've been thinking about a lot, Andy, and I don't know what your take is on J.J. McCarthy.
Starting point is 00:28:01 I think he's a nice college quarterback. I don't think I would put him in the pantheon of great quarterbacks, whether it be this year or previous greats. And Michigan's team is swallowing up their opponents and dominating them in a way that you would expect from Georgia. And they're doing it to teams built like Georgia. And it's like I'm trying to think, has a quarterback in college football won a national
Starting point is 00:28:25 championship or played in a national championship game with these statistics or being less game breaking like that to me is so fascinating like if you ask an NFL talent evaluator they will tell you that JJ McCarthy is more talented than Stetson Bennett like they will probably is significantly more talented but he doesn't make more plays than Stetson Bennett. He probably is. Significantly more talented. But he doesn't make more plays than Stetson Bennett. I don't know that they've needed him to. That's crazy to me because you would think that when you – that is – think about what you just said.
Starting point is 00:28:54 Because he did – remember, he did on when they needed it on that drive. They're done. It's fourth and two on their own 33. So he makes the throw to Corham. That's an easy throw. The one that I could have made? Yeah, but that run that he makes for another first down? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:10 There aren't a lot of quarterbacks in the country that can outrun Alabama's defense like that. I'm not saying that he doesn't make any plays. In fact, he made the best catch of the game, and it was 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. He's clearly talented. He was a five-star talent. But I'm saying when you think about the production that would be necessary from the quarterback position in order to win a game like that, Michigan has become so good at all the areas on the field,
Starting point is 00:29:34 even with deficiencies at receiver and quarterback from a game-breaking ability, that they swallowed up an Alabama team that on paper looked like they could beat an NFL team. I don't mean that really, but they were built in a way that's unbeaten yeah eventually they're gonna have they're gonna have that many guys in the NFL but but so is this Michigan team yes now we're gonna get that clash of styles though or clash of quarterbacks in the national title game because Michael Penix is clearly a superior A-plus college quarterback. There is no doubt that he is one of the better ones. He's a four-and-a-half-point favorite. So if Michigan's a four-and-a-half-point favorite, I don't know who's going to win the game.
Starting point is 00:30:15 I think it's going to be a tremendous game. I'm excited to watch it. But if Michigan goes out and wins this championship game by swallowing up its opponent the way that it has been doing all year and J.J. McCarthy has an efficient but not spectacular game that to me would be the biggest illustration of the neutralization of the talent disadvantage that they've been crippled by in the past I mean do you remember when you and I covered the Ohio State Michigan game in 2019 I remember talking about my road we sat we sat back there in the press box and compared five
Starting point is 00:30:48 star recruits how many how many fewer ones michigan had how prohibitive of an advantage that was for ohio state and it was and it was michigan had to change something and they did you know that the 2020 happened and i know here's where people yeah they brought in connor stallions no they brought in an entirely young staff that was better at evaluating and better at developing talent uh they moved sharon more from tight ends to offensive line which is where he belongs and then gave him even more control by making him offensive coordinator like that that's what they did. They figured out a way to to maximize everybody they had in the program.
Starting point is 00:31:33 And I think that's what what you've got to be able to maximize is all. It's more like coaching the NFL. Now, Washington's a great example of this. Kalen DeBoer is a talent maximizer. He gets the most out of the players he had. I remember reading in your column, you wrote about Washington's offensive line. It's all guys they got out of high school. None of them are ranked higher than 170 in the country, but it's a great group. They're very athletic. They've got pros on that line and they play well
Starting point is 00:32:01 together. Like they don't have the communication or have not been plagued by the communication issues that plagued alabama against michigan on monday like that hasn't happened to washington all year and they played some some good defenses and so i think being able to maximize that talent along with being able to to get some of it is is what you need now before you had and the problem before i think also was you had be it big saban kirby smart urban meyer guys that were great at accumulating and also great at evaluating and developing it was like they had all of the above and the players couldn't leave so you went from the most closed system in major American sports in terms of personnel movement to now the most open, right?
Starting point is 00:32:50 Because it is literally free agency every year, especially after the, the, the transfer rules got challenged in federal court recently. So like, I'm just assuming it's until they figure out how to make them employees and do CBAs and contracts,, it will be pure free movement. And open markets want to find their level. They want to be efficient. They want to operate efficiently. So what that means is some future NFL player is just not going to sit for two years
Starting point is 00:33:22 when he can just go somewhere else and play now. And that used to be the person that would come into the Alabama game when the person in front of him blew his knee out and then played like a star that no one had ever heard of unless they followed recruiting rankings and thus helped the team move forward and absorb that loss better than you know say a team like you know Michigan in the past would have had they lost J.J. McCarthy or Blake Corham or something like that. But the thing I thought you said that was super interesting too, and I've actually given some thought to this, and I, you know, if you read or are aware of the Ohio State-Michigan game this year,
Starting point is 00:33:56 I wrote a pretty sternly worded comment about Ryan Day not bringing anything new to the table in terms of offensive imagination for a game that big. And I think the thing that Jim Harbaugh and coaches that have been very successful, Kalen DeBoer also falls into that category, is that they go by a week-to-week NFL-like system where they evaluate their opponent, they identify those weaknesses, and they design a game plan tailored specifically to hurting and and and taking advantage of those deficiencies whereas i think there have been times and i think ohio state is
Starting point is 00:34:30 probably pretty guilty of that this year of and this is something from the past 10 years where the talent discrepancies that these teams have had are so stark that all they ever have to do is rely on that talent to win, and it would lead to national championships. I think you have to be to a point now where not only do you find the players that are rated high, they also have to fit, and you also, as a coach, have to decide how are you going to deploy these players in games against teams that are very good to take out the opposing team's weakness.
Starting point is 00:35:02 I don't think that Ohio State had a single wrinkle in the Michigan game, and it allowed Michigan to advance to the playoff and get into this position. I think there's another good example of this in the 2021 Georgia-Alabama SEC Championship game. Georgia, like that 2021 Georgia team is the best collection of talent we've seen probably since 2001 Miami, in terms of just how much better it was than every team had played. And they were as vanilla as humanly possible in that sec championship game. And the problem was they were playing against a team with a Heisman trophy winner,
Starting point is 00:35:34 a team with a first round receiver, a second round receiver, a bunch of first rounders on defense, and they weren't creative enough and they got beat because Nick Saban was attacking the few weaknesses that Georgia had and you look they played again and Georgia was much more creative defensively like they did a lot make the case Andy that it happened again this year yeah there's no absolute reason why a team like Georgia couldn't have taken more. Well, Georgia was Georgia had depth problems like Georgia. Remember, Brock Bowers was was kind of played on one leg.
Starting point is 00:36:11 Ladna Conkey was hurt. Georgia was playing receivers who had barely played all season in the SEC championship game. Which brings us back to the main point. Right. OK, so let me ask you this before we wrap up. Before we went into season's feeling there might be three to four teams capable of winning the national title. Do you think in the future we're going to say it's eight, nine, ten? Yes, I am.
Starting point is 00:36:39 Oh my God, that means the playoff's going to be unreal. Well, the thing that is interesting about the discussion that we're having this year. Now, I think that we're going to still return to teams like 2020 Alabama and 2021 Georgia. That'll happen. Yes, it'll happen every once in a while. Yeah, yeah. And just mow through everybody no matter what. I don't know that any team this year would have won the national title in 2019.
Starting point is 00:37:05 I just think that's the way that the seasons work out sometimes. But I don't think that you can quantify based solely on looking at a chart who has a chance to win it and who doesn't anymore. I think the number one thing that I've grown from in this season is the oversimplistic nature in which I've applied numbers to the results on the games. Because for 20 years that's all that happened but now we've gotten to the point where there needs to be more nuance more discussion more talk about things like fit development coaching style are you aggressive on fourth down you dial up the right plays I mean if you look at the two teams that are playing for the national championship this year we got one coach in here that's dialing going forward on
Starting point is 00:37:42 fourth and one from his own 29 yeah in a rivalry game and not only converting but having the perfect play design that i've never even seen before and picking up 30 yards on it like that is what you need it's no longer we're going to have 25 players in our class and 13 of them are going to be top 100 players and we're just going to out talent everybody you got to look at at deficient position groups you have to look at dynamic in deep position groups scheduling all these things that we have to take into account maybe i'm just calling myself an idiot for being too simplistic in the past but i didn't think watch if you would have told me washington's going to play in the national championship game this year i would have bet my house that they wouldn't i like i would have been wrong that's why i picked oregon over washington twice and it's why it's also why it's also why i picked washington over
Starting point is 00:38:28 texas because i just flipped on it i was like after watching that second washington oregon game that's where it did it for me it was like okay this is just a better team than i'm giving it credit for like yeah this offensive line is better than i am giving it credit for this defensive line is better than i am giving it credit for. This defensive line is better than I am giving it credit for. And these receivers are otherworldly. And you realize, okay, it doesn't have to be a blue-chip ratio team necessarily. They don't have to have 85%, 90% four- and five-star players. So, yeah, I think the world has changed.
Starting point is 00:39:06 Again, I don't think you were wrong before i don't either i think i think the facts bore it out i just think right it is it is nil it is the the way the transfer rules assuming they even exist anymore like it has changed the sport and all of you who said it was going to change it for the worse, you should have listened to The Economist because they told you the whole time that this will spread out the talent. And guess what? It spread out the talent. And I think people listen to these podcasts, Andy, and I appreciate anybody who ever gives any credence into anything I have to say. It's truly, you know, really humbling.
Starting point is 00:39:44 But as an analyst of a sport or as a writer or a columnist of a sport, the thing that I can't stand the most is when people form opinions and then are unable to let go of those opinions with the presentation of new facts. And I would be a complete and utter embarrassment, I think, if I looked at what happened on this season and didn't change the way I viewed it to some extent. Now, I still think that super teams will be able to be better year in and year out, regardless of turnover. I think they'll be more flexible when it comes to, you know, you have to recruit a certain type of class to be a national championship contender every year, no matter what. I'm very interested to see like michigan bounces back next year when they lose all the talent that they have i know
Starting point is 00:40:28 alabama and ohio state are going to be pretty good next year i know georgia's going to be really good let me ask you let's get some people excited let's list the teams we think can win the 2024 national title okay let's do it okay so we we think alabama oh Ohio State, Georgia, those will all be playoff caliber teams, right? Feel pretty good about all three of those. I think that you automatically have to put in any team that recruits at a high enough level now. That is an automatic baseline. So I would put Texas, just sign the number three class in the country.
Starting point is 00:41:03 They're losing a few guys. Xavier Wardley is going to the NFL, but if Quinn Ewers comes back and Arch Manning develops, they're bringing in four five-star prospects and a boatload of top 100 players. That is a no-brainer. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:41:15 So that's four. We got four so far. I'll throw one in there. Team that won 10 games this year and I think will be more talented next year brings back a ton from the offense and based on what we've seen in the transfer portal, should have a better defense. Ole Miss. Yes, and I think that Ole
Starting point is 00:41:31 Miss is a type of team that five months ago or a year ago I would have laughed at because I still would have looked and said, well, hey, Ole Miss is somewhere in the mid-20s in team total talent. So that doesn't compute to me. But now when you bring in the players that are coming back, the production that they had this year from a 10-win team, and then who they brought in, I mean, Walter Nolan's coming in. They're bringing in guys.
Starting point is 00:41:57 Andy, I think that that is the perfect example of why the list goes from 4 to 9. It's the Ole Misses that we would have, or I would have, dismissed in the past that now have to be taken seriously. And I will put Michigan on this list again, even though they are losing all that. And honestly, I don't care if they lose Jim Harbaugh, if they promote Sharon Moore. I feel like they're the same program
Starting point is 00:42:18 if Sharon Moore's the head coach. So I would put them in here. I would, I don't, would I put Penn State in there? Talent-wise, I think I would. Sure. I don't know what they have done at receiver. I think, here's another hot take. I just want to give you, I just want to, I just miss you, buddy. I'm just sprinkling on you. I think that in college football these days, maybe not so much in 2005 or 2010 and 2015, where you would just automatically assume that defensive tackle or quarterback are two positions that you absolutely have to have on a dominant
Starting point is 00:42:52 national championship team. And I think Michigan can even disprove this hot take in less than a week. But I think that's a pretty awesome defensive tackle. No, no. Yeah. But I'm saying what I'm trying to say is i think that if you looked at the teams um that were really good this year a lot of them florida state you know had this ohio state had this before they lost but you have to have elite level receivers i think if you texas had it if you have elite level receivers who cannot be covered or just are game breakers um it's a very very important thing in the college game because not everybody has them.
Starting point is 00:43:27 That's another one with Ole Miss. Yeah, yeah, but you're looking at like Romo Dunzey and Jalen Polk, guys who are just catching 20-yard outs and then spinning back into the middle of the field and picking up 50 more yards and getting inside the 10-yard line. Who has a player that can jump up into traffic, catch a 50-50 ball, and not only catch it but make a play after it? I think that this year there were more receiver talents in college football
Starting point is 00:43:53 across the board than there ever have been, but I'm always a prisoner of the moment. January's that time of year when the kids are back in school. We start to get busy again. We get back into our routines, but we're also trying to keep those resolutions. Well, there's a great way to do it with factor meals. Chef prepared, fresh to your door, ready in two minutes. It's got everything you need, and these things are absolutely delicious.
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Starting point is 00:45:39 You will not regret it. These things are delicious. The kids will love them. You will love them. No muss muss no fuss no cooking just eating delicious meals from factor what about arizona i i think that's a good one i think that utah with cam rising back also uh so i think those two out of the big 12 are really interesting oregon and Washington again. Washington, going back to the transfer portal, we'll see with Will Rogers.
Starting point is 00:46:10 Oregon's going to be very talented. Now they're all in the Oregon and Washington in the Big 10 now, so their schedules are different. It looks different. I think you're paying me $1,000. I'm not putting USC on this list. I know. I'm not putting them on there either.
Starting point is 00:46:24 If it happens, it happens. But we've already named like nine teams. Well, I think we should get together again after all the dust settles and we can actually look at the rosters of who people have. It would be a fun podcast. So our producer, River, says 10 that we just named. We just named 10 teams. You know who else we didn't name that are on that list, Andy?
Starting point is 00:46:46 Who's that? LSU. I need that defense to be a lot better. I know, but I'm saying we have to still include the teams with talent. Right. Year in, year out, they're going to have the level of talent required to do that. Florida State. Mizzou.
Starting point is 00:47:02 Clemson. Yep. Could you imagine? It's a brave new world. It's a brave new world. And now you don't have to be – the thing, too, is like now you don't even have to be perfect to get in. That's the best part, too.
Starting point is 00:47:16 It's like you could be flawed and like you think you know something about a team's roster. They might drop a game or two at the beginning of the year, kind of the way that Alabama did. They figure something out about a player that's on the bench or somebody gets really good. They go on this tear and they're hot at the end of the year. They're the 11th seed. Next thing you know, they're in the final four and they could do it. Now that's, you know, I'm starting to sound like the theatrical version of myself. I feel like sick to my stomach
Starting point is 00:47:40 like acknowledging these things. It's almost like all of the things that we argued about for two years about the 12th team playoff that you're admitting i was right about i'm not even talking about the playoff i'm not saying i told you so but well actually i am but i'm not talking about the playoff i'm talking about the the season the free willing ability to acknowledge old miss arizona utah oregon was Washington as legitimate national championships. It's going to be fun watching these teams play all season. And it's also going to be fun, like you said, to watch some of these teams evolve. Because on this list of teams, by the way, we have more than 12 teams on our list now. So some of these aren't even going to make the playoff next year.
Starting point is 00:48:23 Somebody's going to lose two games early and then be a freaking buzzsaw at the end of the season and nobody's going to want to see him in the playoff here are a few teams that we did not list that um they're just interesting things to talk about but did we say oklahoma we didn't even say that's another they they would be in that list too yeah we say notre dame no we did not do in that list too. Did we say Notre Dame? No, we didn't. Did we say Tennessee? Did we say Clemson?
Starting point is 00:48:50 Like there are a lot of teams. Yeah, I said Clemson at the end. But we didn't say Mizzou either unless I just did. What about A&M? Remember the talent that they had as a new coach? Like there are a lot of teams that kind of fit that threshold of if things come together. I think that the biggest difference, Andy, to wrap this up is you can say if things come together now. And that makes sense.
Starting point is 00:49:14 In the past, if things come together, I used to say the light at the end of the things coming together tunnel is a train. It's like that train is Alabama or Georgia ready to eat your lunch. Right. train like it's like then that train is Alabama or Georgia ready to eat your lunch right like now are we we can't 100 and it still might be true most of the time in the future but Michigan definitively proved it's not all the time and as a result of it not being all the time I have to at least acknowledge the possibility or the sliver of hope that a team that we don't expect at the beginning of the year to win a national championship could do so. And props to Bruce Feldman, who he and I argued about this at the beginning of the year. He wrote a story at The Athletic explaining why Michigan –
Starting point is 00:49:52 Oh, about Michigan in the draft picks, yep. In the draft picks, and that actually turned out to be right on. And I think I'm going to be going on their show to continue the Shane tour, but I appreciate you. Well, I'm glad you came here because they had a little anti-Arry. No, I know. I was told one of their sponsors
Starting point is 00:50:11 said no Arry or we're not coming back. Our sponsors love you. I love coming on and I always enjoy being with you. Listen, it's going to be a very interesting offseason and it's certainly going to be you know which teams are just going to go get a quarterback that was a three-star that turns into a Heisman finalist like how many teams have done that
Starting point is 00:50:35 like that like that like that I mean Washington has a Heisman finalist who does not account for their their talent yep and might have should have won it did you vote for him? Tennessee people Tennessee people can be okay with Jeremy Pruitt and Tyson Helton mopping Michael Penix Jr. because now they've got Nico but for the longest time they're like wait a second we could have had him yeah um but I think that also makes the offseason more entertaining because the the nuts and bolts of who's doing well or who signs or the late signing period and the spring football, all this stuff. Like I do think that a lot of times being great and being good is the difference of two or three players that just produce.
Starting point is 00:51:15 I think Florida State is the perfect example of that. So there's a lot to break down in the offseason. And I think that the number one thing that's better about college football, and I was talking to Dan Wetzel about this on the phone the other day, is that we are inching towards an NFL-like calendar where this becomes a year-round sport. And I think as a result of that, more inclusion, more discussions, more talent accumulation, more transfers, though some people might not like that, also makes this a 24-hour, 365-day-a- a year news cycle which is probably going to be the reason why your life your wife gets mad at you more but probably but hey i saw the ratings already the transfers ain't scaring anybody off no the thing is the question is if you hate transfers and you hate nil and you
Starting point is 00:52:00 hate all the chaos that goes on behind the scenes that isn't public is the uncomfortability of the darkness of that world worth what you're getting which is a season like this i think so i also think that that world is entertaining that part of it's entertaining too that's what we've seen the pro leagues turn that into in the dark sport it is in the darkness and we will bring it into the light as much as we can yes we're trying we're trying but if it ever gets to a point where these cbas happen and they become employees and stuff and their their contracts become public information the negotiations become public information and there starts to be some sort of like you know discussion point about who took what and to go where and you have a banana land it's going to be banana land and i think it's a good time to to have a podcast for sure get it on the ground floor you know what i mean exactly harry wasserman you can hear him on the until saturday podcast at the athletic you
Starting point is 00:53:00 can read him at the athletic he's the best we'll talk to you later, Ari. Good seeing you, Andy. We'll see you in Houston. So Anthony asked this question of Ari, and I will answer for Ari, because actually it's a Shea Dixon question, and if you watch that roundtable video with me and Shea talking to LSU, we answer this one too. Anthony asked,
Starting point is 00:53:21 as a Miami fan, should I be worried that Brian Kelly might come in and steal Lance Guidry to be his defensive coordinator at LSU? If that happens, who would be his replacement Miami? Let's not get too worried about that yet. But yes, Lance Guidry from Louisiana, from knees, I believe he played at Missouri, who did a fantastic job this year. He just got an extension, but Missouri may have to pay up even more to keep him. I think Zach Arnett would be an interesting one. Now, that's a schematic one that Brian Kelly has to decide he's comfortable with the 3-3-5. But Zach Arnett, the former Mississippi State head coach, was a great defensive coordinator. The head coaching situation he walked into was very tough.
Starting point is 00:54:07 I think he'll get another shot as a head coach, and he'll do just fine. But this situation kind of made him an extended interim. But that doesn't mean he can't be a great defensive coordinator still in the SEC. So I think that would be another potential possibility. We've also got Bob Diaco hanging out on Kelly's staff. He's been Kelly's defensive coordinator on three separate occasions. So those are ones that I would think would be possible choices for LSU. So don't freak out quite yet. Lance Guidry might not be going yet. All right, now it is time for your questions. I guess that was your first Dear Andy question
Starting point is 00:54:45 right there. That was a Dear Andy and Ari question about Lance Guidry. So we'll start with Arthur in Atlanta who took issue with something I said Monday night after the Sugar Bowl. Andy, I heard you and Jesse discussing whether Washington should have taken a knee after covering the onside kick. Surprisingly, you equated it to a Mario Cristobal-type situation, insinuating that Washington could have run the clock out and ended the game by kneeling. And yes, in that situation, taking a knee would be the obviously correct choice, but that wasn't the situation last night at all.
Starting point is 00:55:15 I know that, and we'll get to it. Washington recovered the onside kick with 109 left and Texas having two timeouts. If they took three knees, they're basically guaranteeing Texas gets the ball back. Yes, there would have only been 15 to 20 seconds left when they did, but still they would get a shot.
Starting point is 00:55:28 But if you run the ball three times and happen to get a first down, you win the game right there. So DeBoer, who you have always noticed is pretty aggressive in situations like that and generally applaud him for being such, was at least trying to give his team that chance. This wasn't even remotely a crystal ball situation
Starting point is 00:55:42 where you could actually kneel the clock all the way out. I have no problem with what Washingtonhington did there they just had really bad luck with the injury as you and jesse pointed out the bigger issue is not running on third down on the prior drive and forcing texas to use another timeout then they definitely would have been in a kneel down situation after the onside kick recovery okay let's unpack all this because i think the 109 left texas having two timeouts is the key here. And I,
Starting point is 00:56:06 I agree with Arthur. If they run more on the previous possession, we're not even having this discussion. That's where it sort of fell apart for them, but they were not able to run the ball with their backs against Texas, the way they were against Oregon against Oregon. They just salted the game away. They just ate the clock.
Starting point is 00:56:24 And so I know it's Dylan, you know, Kalen DeBoer knows how to do that. We just saw him do it in the Pac-12 championship game. It was a case where I don't, I think he was looking at it like he didn't think they could do that on the ground. The Dylan Johnson injury though, it is somewhat bad luck. But remember, he was grimacing in pain earlier in the quarter. So the problem was that the injury gave them a free timeout. They gave Texas a free timeout. There's supposed to be a 10-second runoff. But remember, the team that didn't have the injured player can decline the runoff,
Starting point is 00:57:02 which is what Texas did. So Texas gets the ball with 50 seconds left instead of 15 seconds left, which would have been the case. Texas would not have been able to get down the field in 15 seconds. They would not have had three, well, should have had three cracks at the end zone. They didn't take them all, but they would not have had multiple cracks at the end zone at the end of the game if they had just kneeled in that situation instead of handing to Dylan Johnson. So that's the difference. It's not that he wasn't giving himself. I understand why they were doing it, but in that situation against that
Starting point is 00:57:41 particular defensive front, and by the way, the one they're about to play is similarly talented, similarly tough right up front, deep at defensive tackle, same general situation. Give that offense as little time as possible and without hurting yourself. And that's the other part, is you were trying to extend your season by a game, by winning this game.
Starting point is 00:58:10 You want to make sure your best back is 100% healthy, and he's not. He's going to play, but that didn't look good. So it's okay. Again, this might be like the first time I've ever disagreed with a call Kalen DeBoer's made. So he's got, he's way ahead of every other coach on that.
Starting point is 00:58:27 But in this particular case, I still think they should have taken some knees. All right, let us move on to Oreo. Jake's on Twitter. Correct opinion. Have her because himself, who is the way too early next Washington out ofnext Washington out-of-nowhere candidate?
Starting point is 00:58:46 Not that they didn't have high expectations heading into the year, but, of course, it feels like magic. I don't think Washington came out of nowhere. We were looking at Washington as a potential Pac-12 champion going into this season. We were talking about them. We were talking about Oregon. We were talking about USC.
Starting point is 00:59:02 We were talking about Utah, which was trying to three-peat. We didn't know Cam Rising wasn't coming back. We talked about Oregon State, but I do think Washington had very high expectations. I think everyone expected them to compete for the Pac-12 title, if not a playoff berth. So it's not completely out of nowhere, which is why I'll give you some teams that I think might be in that mix. And Ari and I talked about this earlier in the show. I think Ole Miss is one of those teams. Now, Ole Miss was in a New Year's Six Bowl, won a New Year's Six Bowl. It was an 11-win team this year.
Starting point is 00:59:35 So you may say that's not out of nowhere enough. But they bring back most of their offense. On paper, they have upgraded the defense through the transfer portal. We'll see how well that meshes chemistry-wise, but on paper, they're more talented than they were on that side of the ball. I'll give you one. So Monday night in the Sugar Bowl, we watched a rerun of the Alamo Bowl from the year before
Starting point is 01:00:02 when Texas and Washington played, and then both of them improved, and they wound up in the playoff. The Alamo Bowl this year was Arizona versus Oklahoma. I definitely think that could be a playoff game next year and the team that wins it could be on their way to potentially competing for the national title. Oklahoma, Brent Venable, since he got there, has been trying to upgrade the roster, trying to make it look more like a competitive SEC roster. I think he's on his way to doing that.
Starting point is 01:00:31 Jackson Arnold, I know, did not have the best second half in that Alamo Bowl, but you saw flashes of why everybody's so excited about Jackson Arnold. And then on the other side, Arizona's playing great. You know, Noah Fafita was awesome. T-Mac was great. And Jetfish just seems to be building something very nice there. You've heard him on this show explaining how they built that team.
Starting point is 01:00:53 And it's a mix of high school players and transfer portal guys. They've done really well spot recruiting out of the portal, but they've also done a good job of developing the guys they have recruited. And they haven't even had that much time to develop the ones they've recruited so this is more time for them and i i just really appreciate the job they've done and so i was watching that alamo bowl which is a lot of fun won my prize pick squares on that one i had i had noafita and Jackson Arnold more than their passing yardage total, and they both hit because that game was wild. But I think that's one where the two teams playing in it certainly have a shot. Missouri is another one that I think has a pretty good shot.
Starting point is 01:01:39 I do think it's a more open year coming up in 2024, not just because of the 12-team playoff, but because of what Ari was talking about. It's probably more about, one, how you develop, and two, how you get guys out of the portal. Michigan has more 2024 draft picks than Alabama on its roster. I don't know at the end of the day, when all is added up four years from now if Alabama will have more than Michigan total I think they probably
Starting point is 01:02:10 might but maybe not and having a lot of really old guys at one time is is a big deal that's why I like the Ole Miss situation so much because of how old those guys are how experienced those guys are that the key stat in Ari's column I thought was Michigan came into the game with their two deep having 3,000 more snaps of experience than Alabama because old NFL bound talent has a shot anytime against five-star talent that's young, that's not experienced. That's because the guys that are going to the NFL, they are maybe as good as the five-stars right now. The five-stars have a higher ceiling, could ultimately be better college players, and ultimately be better pros. But at the time the game is played, it makes for a
Starting point is 01:03:06 very interesting matchup, as you saw. So Brian, will this NIL transfer portal timing with bowls get fixed soon? All these opt-outs made the UGA FSU game a complete blowout. I hear coaches complaining about, guys, you're asking colleges to change the semester system like i always say the business of college is a lot bigger than the business of college sports so now if you want to be a true football factory maybe you go to the quarter system so that you can get guys into school a little bit later in case they move that transfer portal window back. But the way you solve this is you move the transfer portal window back, but you say you can enroll in your new school and still play at your old school and finish the season.
Starting point is 01:03:57 You've seen it with coaches. Like Urban Meyer takes the Florida job and coaches Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. We've seen that happen a bunch of times. So if you want to move the transfer portal window but still want to get guys moved to schools, you can do that. Now, you have to be mature, but you have to be grownups about it, which is what happens when the coaches who leave come back and coach their old team. Kirby Smart, prime example.
Starting point is 01:04:29 Kirby Smart was the head coach of Georgia while he was Alabama's defensive coordinator in the college football playoff that Alabama won. So it can be done. It's possible, but you have to be grownups. We had Eli Drinkwitz on the show. He was talking about being a grownup with the players in the transfer portal. They were allowed to play in the bowl game. They were allowed to play in the bowl game. They were allowed to practice for the bowl game. They could do their official visits to other schools
Starting point is 01:04:51 just as long as they got back in time for practice. It can be done. Everybody's just gotta be a grownup about it. But that's the thing. Otherwise, you can't move it because the semester break is when it is. But if you're willing to be a little bit flexible and a little bit mature about it, then yes, you could do that.
Starting point is 01:05:15 Matt, there's something called late enrollment, Andy. You're given a two-week grace period. At certain schools, certain schools, you get three days of ad drop, and you better be in your classes by then. So it depends on the school. But again, if you can enroll and then play for your old team throughout the playoff or throughout the bowl season, it's not a problem. So again, be mature about it and it's not an issue. Let's go to Justin's question now.
Starting point is 01:05:52 Dear Andy, I won a few bucks when Iowa under did hit. Yeah. Yeah, Tennessee could have kicked that last field goal, but no. The integrity of the under mattered too much to Josh Heupel. Who had a better performance against the Iowa defense, Drew Aller or Nico? Can the Iowa defense be a barometer for the hype train? J.J. McCarthy's performance in the 2021 Big Ten Championship helped launch him to the starting job next season. So that's a good question. The Drew Aller thing, though, I think probably makes this a little bit moot because Drew Allard did have a very good sort of game against Iowa. So he threw for four touchdowns. It was not a very efficient game. He
Starting point is 01:06:32 had a lot of attempts for not very many yards, but he had four touchdown passes and the weather sucked. It was cold and wet. And so it wasn't a great day if you're a thrower of the football and he still made some nice tight window NFL type throws for touchdown great day if you're a thrower of the football and he still made some nice tight window nfl type throws four touchdowns and you're like this guy's gonna be incredible this year and then he wasn't and some of that is they had receivers who couldn't separate maybe you know getting julian fleming from from ohio state maybe that helps. But the Nico thing looked very impressive. He looked in command of the offense. He looked like he knew when to run and when to throw. He still took a bunch of sacks, which against Iowa's defense is going to happen to you. But I don't know that we're going to make
Starting point is 01:07:19 it a total height trade. Because the thing about the Iowa defense, especially with no Cooper Jean, they're very good. They don't have the elite athletes that Nico is going to have to play against week in, week out next year. So they may be better coached. They may be better schemed. But there are going to be some teams that they play against that are as well coached, have as good of a scheme, and have way better players. So we'll see with Nico, but it is definitely time to get excited. I think Tennessee fans, Kansas State fans, very good reasons to be excited about your quarterbacks,
Starting point is 01:08:00 Nico, Avery Johnson. I actually think Oklahoma fans should still be very excited about Jackson Arnold, even though though through a bunch of picks in the Alamo Bowl I thought he that there were flashes of what makes you so excited about him and he is still a true freshman let us go to a video question from our friend Superior CFB Andy so on a recent episode of his show your colleague JD made an interesting comparison between Michael Penix Jr. and Steph Curry, and while I really like that comparison, I think he made an even better one earlier in the episode when he compared
Starting point is 01:08:35 Penix Jr. to Aaron Judge, and I like that one so much because we're talking about two home run hitters, but what sets them apart is their approach. They're patient and precise. They'll take their walks. They'll take the outside pitch and go the other way with it, but when the moment's right, they'll strike and hit that long ball and really change the game. So what I ask you is, can you come up with any other cross-sport comparisons between current or even former college football players and other athletes across the landscape? The example I came up with is maybe a little bit obscure, and your non-NBA fan audience might not connect with it, but I'd like to compare Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jaden Daniels to Sacramento Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox.
Starting point is 01:09:17 And it is stylistic, but it also has to do with their development over the last year or so. We're talking about two guys that have been good high-level players, but really one-dimensional players who relied on that speed and explosiveness to get the job done. But within the last year, have taken that next step to broaden their game through the long-distance game and airing it out. Obviously, Jaden Daniels had one of the best passing seasons in recent memory and winning the Heisman Trophy by pushing the ball downfield to Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas. But De'Aaron Fox is quietly having quite the season from beyond the arc for the Kings, really looking like an all-NBA player.
Starting point is 01:09:54 So I want to know if you had any other examples. Thanks. I think that Jaden Daniels' De'Aaron Fox one's really good because I remember when De'Aaron Fox was at Kentucky and he was just kind of a speedster moving the ball down the court and you didn't see him as much of a shooter you didn't see a lot of diversity in his game and he absolutely has diversified his game in the NBA so I got a couple I got a couple college football players one I'm comparing to an NBA player one to a major league baseball player we'll start with our pal Kenneth Grant. We talked to him on the show the other day. Lots of fun.
Starting point is 01:10:30 340-pound defensive tackle for Michigan. He is lightning quick and straight up fast for a guy that size. Probably fast for any human being, and he happens to weigh 340 pounds. The comparison I made for him is zion williamson because somebody that big should not be that explosive and it is shocking every time you see it like how many times have we seen zion rise and dunk and just crush the rim and it's so explosive it looks surprising every time because it feels like we're watching an nfl offensive tackle do it well kenneth grant same thing that that you know inside quickness the the tight space quickness he can beat you in a phone booth but the thing is
Starting point is 01:11:19 you saw with k tron allen against penn state he can run down a really fast running back. And there just aren't many people who can do that. So the other one I had is Brock Bowers, and I compare him to Elie Dela Cruz for the Cincinnati Reds. This is a guy who, at this size, should not be able to run like this. Again, I keep saying this size, but Elie la cruz is a 6'5 infielder bowers is actually a little short for tight and he's 6'4 but he's 240 pounds and just moves so well and is so graceful so athletic and de la cruz you know he can hit home runs but if he hits one in the gap is it maybe an inside the park home run? And that's the difference.
Starting point is 01:12:10 Brock Bowers can catch a long pass down the seam, but where he's really scary is if they hand him to him on an end around. And he can score that way too. So I think that's a fun comparison because those two guys, you never know what you're going to get when Brock Bowers gets the ball or when Elliott LaCru Cruz is at the plate. Let us go now to our friend Nathan. He has sent us the most video questions this season, and he always brings it.
Starting point is 01:12:36 Dear Andy, in honor of the context of all, I have two mascot-related questions. First of all, what food item do you think would make the most enjoyable ball game now? That doesn't just mean food tasteless, but which one do you think would be the most fun to have over ball games? Secondly, let's play Mike Leach's favorite game. If all of the mascots in college football were to have a fight what mascot do you do you think would win now for sandy's sake let's only go with mascots that are real so
Starting point is 01:13:15 no arizona state sometimes yeah i was hoping sparky and the duke blue devil would would ultimately fight it out for the souls of all the other mascots. But that's not where we're going with that. But let's start with Nathan's first question, which, what would be the tastiest bowl game mascot? Listen, Pop-Tarts did an amazing job with the Pop-Tarts Bowl. First of all, you got a good game. You had a really fun Kansas State-NC State game. The world got to know Avery Johnson. But we were more excited about
Starting point is 01:13:46 what was going to happen with that mascot, that live mascot. He's just singing, dancing, pop-tart, and then obviously that wasn't the person that came out of the toaster, but it did look pretty tasty, what they were eating, and Cooper Beebe, the offensive lineman for kansas state did say that it was delicious so what would i say would be the best product to sponsor the bowl game i will i'm going to go with this product because i've seen this logo in another sport and i know it could be pulled off so i'm going to say Grand's Biscuits. Now look, your grandma's going to call these Womp Biscuits. I know they're not homemade,
Starting point is 01:14:35 but Pillsbury is the type of company that would sponsor one of these games. So the Pillsbury Grand's Biscuit Bowl and the mascot is a walking biscuit. Now, if you follow minor league baseball, you know the Montgomery Biscuits. They're, I believe, a single-A affiliate of the Tampa Bay Rays, if I'm not mistaken. They, on their hats and their jerseys, have a anthropomorphic biscuit mascot. He's got a pat of butter in his mouth for the tongue. It's one of the great logos in all of sports.
Starting point is 01:15:05 Now, one of the great missed opportunities in all of sports is that this actually isn't the Biscuits in-stadium mascot. Their in-stadium mascot is named Monty. I don't know if he's an elephant. He might be a Snuffleupagus, to be perfectly honest with you. He's orange. And he doesn't look like a biscuit at all. Like, have a freaking walking biscuit. What's wrong with you? Why would you have just some sort of thing? And it really does look like the Snuffleupagus. It's just stupid. You don't think kids would hug a biscuit? Come on. So the Pillsbury Grands Biscuit Bowl would be tremendous. Edible mascot, oh yeah, let's make it happen. You have an oven instead of a toaster, and the mascot walks into the oven,
Starting point is 01:15:59 walks out the backside, and out pops the world's largest biscuit that the winning team can eat. I think we can make that happen. I think all of that is logistically possible. Another one, the Black Forest Gummy Bear Bowl. So your mascot is a giant gummy bear. So you have kind of the neoprene costume that goes around the actual human. That is then surrounded by actual gummy bear material that is completely edible. So that person walks around and dances the whole game, but every time a touchdown is scored, the player who scored the touchdown
Starting point is 01:16:33 may take a bite of the mascot. Every time there's a turnover, the player who caught the interception or who recovered the fumble may take a bite of the mascot. This has got to happen. This would be amazing. I would watch every second of this game. As great as the Pop-Tarts Bowl was, the Black Forest Gummy Bear Bowl would be significantly better. So just make this happen, people. Make it happen. All right, to the second part of Nathan's question, if the mascots all got in a fight, who would win? Well, the answer is Miami because it's a freaking hurricane. It would blow everybody
Starting point is 01:17:12 away. Now, if you're forcing me to use the costumed mascot on the field and I have to use Sebastian the Ibis, well then no, if you've ever seen a real Ibis, like I have them walking around my neighborhood, they got no shot against some of these other animals no shot whatsoever like bevo is just going to step on an ibis so no and again we can't have sparky the sun devil and the duke blue devil fighting over the souls of everyone so we can't have a now if we can't have a natural disaster which it it would be a Miami Tulsa final in that tournament, then I guess we got to go. Well, Sparty,
Starting point is 01:17:51 I think is very chemically enhanced. He doesn't have any weapons, but he has those muscles, which do not look natural at all. So I think he could be dangerous. But the thing is you do have a couple mascots with actual firearms. And I think they're going to be your biggest problem. The West Virginia Mountaineer, he's got his rifle. That rifle may be loaded during the games. I'm not even sure.
Starting point is 01:18:18 But he's obviously dangerous. But more dangerous is Pistol Pete from Oklahoma State. So now sometimes they have Pistol Pete carrying a rifle, but in drawings, he's always got a couple of six shooters. And so Pistol Pete with 12 shots to work with, I think becomes the most dangerous mascot. Plus that plastic head is absolutely terrifying. So he's going to scare most of them away, but then he's also got, assuming he's the one, like the one from the picture, he's got two revolvers.
Starting point is 01:18:53 So I think that's, that gives him a prohibitive advantage. So Nathan, I hope that answers your question. Again, wonderful questions for dear Andy. We've had a couple from the chat, had a couple from Twitter,
Starting point is 01:19:04 a couple sent via email, a couple sent via video. Awesome questions. It's been a fun show. Got to check in with Ari. Got to find out the stars maybe don't matter anymore. It's a watershed moment. Really is. On Thursday, though, we will help get you ready
Starting point is 01:19:24 for this Michigan- Michigan Washington national title game guys it's not that far away like Thursday show I'm going to Houston on Friday Saturday's media day we're gonna get you ready locked and loaded for an incredibly fun matchup in the national title game we'll talk to you on Thursday

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