Andy & Ari On3 - The Arch Manning Paradox

Episode Date: April 30, 2025

We hosted Andy & Ari On3 LIVE from the Draft in Green Bay last week, and it was a blast. Thanks to Culver’s for bringing us to the Great Wisconsin Tailgate. Born in Wisconsin, Culver’s is the home of the legendary ButterBurger, Fresh Frozen Custard and Wisconsin Cheese Curds—there’s no better representation of America’s Dairyland than that. But Culver’s isn’t just in Wisconsin. There’s one near you now. So grab a ButterBurger and a Cement Mixer and let’s talk some football.(0:00-12:51) Andy's #1 Team: Texas(12:52-13:13) Subscribe to On3!(13:14-22:59) Diving Deep into the Arch Manning Paradox(23:00-25:17) How Good can Texas be?(25:18-35:18) Wrapping up the Arch Manning conversation(35:19-36:18) Culver's(36:19-45:15) SEC Scheduling may Depend on CFP Auto Bids(45:16-55:32) Jordon Hudson makes it weirder(55:33-57:31) New Sound Effects(57:32-1:01:27) Wrapping up the Bill Belichick Girlfriend conversation(1:01:28-1:02:45) Conclusion: Dear Andy & Ari Tomorrow! [e-mail] We’re still discussing Andy’s post-spring top 25, and it’s time to have an extended discussion about the team at No. 1. Texas is transitioning to Arch Manning as its starting quarterback, and the expectations are sky-high. But the discussion around where Quinn Ewers went in the draft has become a broader discussion about Texas and Manning, and Ari is fired up about the Manning bashing that has seeped into the conversation. Andy, meanwhile, is fascinated by the Arch Manning Paradox. Andy wrote about the SEC and the continuing debate over whether to add a ninth conference game. Now it seems the decision hinges on what the new College Football Playoff format looks like. North Carolina coach Bill Belichick’s girlfriend Jordon Hudson continues to make news following a weird appearance on CBS Sunday Morning. Who knew the greatest coach in NFL history coming to college football was going to provide so much fodder for TMZ?  Watch Andy & Ari LIVE on YouTube, Monday-Friday at 9:30 am et! https://youtube.com/live/slV7rFHttis Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Want to partner with the show? E-mail [e-mail]

Welcome to Andy and Ariane 3 presented by Culver's. We talked rankings yesterday, but we didn't talk about the team that I had number one very much. And I think we need to correct that because Ari was going insane yesterday off the air with the arch-manning discourse because see you watching me as you starts scratching his neck like that. Yeah. So the Quinn-Uers draft selection has created another level of conversation about Texas. And it is what I call the Arch Manning paradox. And I'm going to give credit where credit is due to a guy named Graham Coffey. And Graham is a college football pundit. And he put this tweet out the other day, and I thought it was really

interesting, because it is the arch manning paradox. Basically, what Graham says, one of these two things about arch manning has to be true. He's as good as many assume and Steve Sarkisian wasted a national title caliber roster by sitting on a future top five pick behind the QB who was barely drafted. Choice number two, there were football reasons he couldn't beat

out yours and that is a red flag. I think there's a third choice here, but Graham is basically correct here, Ari, what's the third choice? The third choice is, well, you wouldn't agree with this because like in our conversation about Dylan Riola yesterday, you think he is what he is and he's got, that's what it'll always be. But I think quarterbacks can improve over time and orange might not have been quite ready and now he have been quite ready.

And now he might be quite ready or not. Who knows? Is that what you took away from my Dylan Raiola thought? Yeah, that's definitely and that's what all the entire state of Nebraska took away from it too. I took away from my take away from that should be. There's a fundamental problem with his game and that specific area seems to be hard to improve on.

That's what I wanted to say, Not that quarterbacks can't get better. Um, or you think he specifically can't get better or, or that one area is going to make you the most hated person in Nebraska right now. What? I'm going to make you the most hated person in Nebraska. You go ahead. But that's not what I meant.

I also too, like draft evaluators and talent evaluators have different schools of thought about that. I'm saying it's concerning to me about his game. the trying to absolve myself. You shove your friend in front of it so the bearer gets the like you're not involved in it. Um, so yeah, I think that there are that, but the thing that I think is interesting too is the notion that Quinn Ewers was the reason Texas couldn't win last year. Like, like I want to unpack that. Like as a Texas, cause I want to get into my arch stuff, we'll get there. I promise you guys, I've been fired up about it for two days, but I want to unpack that part of it was Quinn.

You're in your mind. The reason Texas did not win the national title last year. No, no, they're on the goal line against Ohio State. If they score there, there's a really good chance they win that game. If they score there. There's a really good chance they win that game. If they win that game, there's a really good chance they beat Notre Dame win national title. So no, I don't think when yours was the reason they did not win the national title last year.

Like also too, and I just feel like people have not caught up to this for some reason. Ohio State had 14 players drafted and their two best players who are the two best players returning did not get drafted last year. Like I don't even know like if an NFL quarterback could have helped them win. Maybe I don't know. Like I don't remember that game and thought like Quinn yours made critical mistakes in that game that caused Texas to not be in a position to win it.

They played against a team that is one of the last remaining pieces of mega super teams like they and they lost in the last minute. Like I think that Quinn was a trailer. Absolutely. And I guess if the thought is that dog is asking is Quinn was Quinn. You was a trucker, a trailer. This is the Daniel Jeremiah. Yes. Quarterback term terminology. Are you dragging your team along or is your team dragging you along? So if you want to say that Arch is a truck and a truck would have won the game, I think I could maybe get on board with that but like I feel like it's not like Texas was kneecapped the entire playoff run and had no chance of beating the teams that they

beat or Ohio State because Quinn Ewers was the quarterback. So like when you talk about the paradox, like I think there's a lot of revisionist history of like who Quinn Ubers was the quarterback. So like when you talk about the paradox, like I think there's a lot of revisionist history of like who Quinn Ubers was because of his draft stock sliding, which probably had nothing to do with his game and more to do with his injury history. And like, I just like, I don't want to live in a world

where like Quinn Ubers sucks and that's how he's remembered because that's not the way it went, okay? It's just not. So he wasn't, Quinn Ubers wasn't- It's still a legitimate question. And we asked it multiple times on the show last year. Yeah. Was arch better than Quinn already. And we don't know the answer to that arch had to play because Quinn got hurt. Arch started two games. He beat an SEC team. It happened to be the Mississippi state, the SEC team that finished last that had the worst past

defense in the conference. So I don't know how telling those two wins are, but it was a conversation we were having last year. And I thought it was laid out very well because this is what's going to happen. And the paradox is, it probably should call it the Steve Sarkeesian paradox, because the paradox is this. If Steve Sarkeesian with Arch Manning starting leads Texas to a national title, he's a great coach because he won a national title, but he's a bad coach because he should have won

two national titles because he should have had Arch starting. Like that's the, that's the actual We're by definition of the word paradox. But the arch manning makes a much better YouTube title. I think if they win the national championship, they'll be fine with how it played out because they won the national title. I agree. What I think could happen though is that arch manning wins the Heisman next year. Texas doesn't win the national championship because they're not as deep and talented as they were a year ago. And then you bring that question of like if arch manning is clearly a better quarterback and they still don't win a national championship then you have to think about that but like also too andy we were talking about why

wasn't arch used in the playoff while quinn was playing i thought that arch had a role and could have had a role the ohio state because we a lot of it always comes down to that toss play at the end of the ohio state game i'm not sure Arch was available at that point. He took a very big hit earlier in that game. I'm not really sure they were capable of putting him in then. So that that's that's another piece of it, which look, that's that's part of the game to should have been playing when he's the starter. That's part of the game. But here's this. This is this is what drives me absolutely insane. Two years straight. This is from Quinton in the chat.

Ewers had the ball in his hand late to take his team to the finals. He folded both times. Let's actually unpack. They made him pitch it that one time. First of all, I don't even want to start at the Ohio State game. Let's start at the Washington game. He led his team all the way down to the field when they shouldn't even have had that extra possession at the end of that semifinal because of the injury to who was it? Dylan Johnson.

They shouldn't even had the ball and they had like throws into the end zone at the end of the game with no time left because he drove him down the field. So I don't know that I would pin like him choking on them. And then also to at the end of the ASU game when they definitely lost, he made a critical check at the line and created a wide open Matthew Golden for a touchdown on an incredible fourth and 13 play. They would not have even been in the Ohio State game if not for that. So that, and then at the same time, I don't know that Quinn called a goal line cosplay from the one yard line that was a seven yard loss because Caleb Downs is on the other. Like, I don't think this is like non Texas fan haters, right? Like no Texas fan is pinning this on Quinn. So this is the thing that like started

this conversation though, because it is interesting. And like if Arch Manning stinks, that would be absurd. Like if that like it turns out to be the case that he's not very good But like so there was a list and I think it was our friend Greg McElroy who put the list out of top ten Quarterbacks in the country. Mm-hmm. And I think I put a list out similarly like a month ago And I got arch in my top five somewhere, right? I had DJ like I had like number four too in my right the omission of him completely off the list is one of two things. One, you only ranking people who have played, which serves no purpose to your readers because people know who was good last year. I don't know why we're ranking who was good last year in April this year.

Well I would say that's why because he had a more limited sample size of DJ Lagway. He had him nine. We both had him one. Right. So what's the point of that list? I don't understand why you're even doing it. We're talking about it. Yeah, so it worked. I mean, I guess but like you're not informing anybody of anything other than here are the good players that played last year. It's like we know that we saw the games. So like when I make lists and when you make lists and when on three makes lists, they're projecting forward because that's what's

interesting, not although he has a tier number two, which I would argue materials moving up a level going from Washington State to Oregon. I mean to Oklahoma, so. We don't know how he's going to perform at that level. The way I would view this making this list and he did it his way. That's his process good for him. But how many of the players like would you not trade you

would trade? Arch Manning for the players like would you not trade you would trade Arch Manning for Carson Beck? Like would you do that? Would you trade Arch Manning? The current Carson Beck coming off elbow surgery? I would take that. The one that was throwing like like if you asked me would you trade K Club Nick for Arch Manning right now? I think I I mean I know what I'm gonna get with Club Nick. Yeah, it is pretty good. I think I, I mean, I know what I'm going to get with Club Nick. Yeah, it is pretty good. I'm not saying obviously his list is comprised of a lot of the same players who aren't ours. This isn't negging the but not having him on the list is a omission as a result of not

seeing him play, which fine. Okay, I accept that. But then it turns into another conversation, which is if he's not on your list, why are we not anticipating or have seen enough or have read the tea leaves enough to know that he's going to be good? Like there's a large portion of people out there that like are assuming or that think that assuming that he's going to be really productive this year is wrong. And I don't understand that thought process. Ben asked an interesting question. What is it about his skill set that you're so sold on? Didn't Nico rank like right next to him? It just doesn't work that way. Okay. Yeah. Okay. This is a great question. This is a great comparison because physically Nico Iamaleata has all the tools. If you started Nico with those teammates against those teams that Arch

started against, he'd probably put up good numbers too. You'd be in the same boat, but you feel differently about Nico because you saw Nico as an SEC starter against really good competition as well. So you feel completely, you take Arch over Nico 10 times out of 10. Now, are you forgetting where I had Nico on my list? Because he was in my top 10. So like, I don't know like what we're talking about here. I like Nico. I think he's a good player. You have Arch above him is what I'm saying. You take Arch over him when I would take this is like a Schrodinger's cat thing. Like we've opened the box with

Nico we haven't opened the box with Arch yet. Yeah, but we also know what's also in the box with Arch, which also pays a like plays a part of this. What's in the box? Uh, uh, Ryan Wingo is in the box with him. Like that's a pretty good, okay. Have in the box. Uh, CJ Baxter is in the box. Um, like Tennessee was void of offensive skill break, uh, game breaking talent, which put it all on Nico shoulders and they made the playoff with him. Like, I don't know what people are talking about with that. Um, so like, and the other thing too, that I can't stand, there's a lot of DJU comparisons, Andy, DJU was a five star prospect as a result of his insane measurables and talent.

Like there are two ways of looking at, at recruiting rankings. And I think that the recruiting rankings aspect that people don't understand is that a lot of times the recruiting rankings are kind of like the NFL draft where players are slotted in ranked based on physical measurables and potential as much as they are at being good at football. And Arch Manny has really good measurables. He's tall, he's 6'4", he's built like a brick house, he runs 20 miles an hour and has a rocket arm.

Why, don't spoil the tweet. We got that tweet. That's true. And that guy's a friend of mine, by the way. You want to put the tweet up now? I didn't mean to spoil it. Hold on one second. First, let me tell everybody, if you're watching on Twitter right now, join us on YouTube.

The link is right below the link you're watching. And subscribe to the On3Sports YouTube page. Because that way, every time we come on live, it'll give you that push notification. And you'll be like, hey, Andy and Ariane, let's go. So do that. We'll see you on YouTube.. And you're like, hey, Andy and Ariane, let's go. So do that. We'll see you on YouTube. Join the chat.

Much more robust. Chat's great today. Chat's killing it today. So we'll see you there on YouTube. OK, let us go to the tweet. Because when you sent this to our group chat, I nearly ran off the road laughing. I know I shouldn't be reading tweets while driving.

But I nearly ran off the road. You go ahead. And you drive a truck. You read it. This is from my friend Merle D Woods. That's not his actual name. I don't know what that means, but his actual name is in his handle. His name is David. And I was like getting mad at people for getting upset at the notion that Arch Manning should be ranked higher than he was or Certainly what my initial tweet was it's more offensive to have him off the list and it would be to have him number one

But he said whatever take the last name away And he's nothing but a six foot four tank with a cannon for an arm who runs 20 miles an hour and surrounded by beloved Surrounded by and beloved by a super talented cast teammates coached by an offensive wizard It's like okay like betting against this. It is it is funny when you put it that way because it definitely flips the it's just because of the last name argument on its ear because I actually think his last name is hurting him. I think that if we had all the same information that we have which is as measurables what he was as a high school

recruit and a productive recruit, though, granted, I think he played at a lower level, and came from a family that prioritized development and didn't emphasize things that people got upset about, which is trying to get the biggest paycheck, which, by the way, he's the most marketable and most valuable player in college football in terms of NIL valuation. And, like, he skipped the NCAA football photo shoot. And people should love that, right? Because you hate how Nico acted, so you have to love how he's acting. And if his name was Roger Gallagher, like I think, and he's the next great Texas quarterback and was a five star, like putting him on this list wouldn't, I think people resent his last name. I

don't think people think that he deserves any of the credit that he's gotten because of his last name. I don't think people think that he deserves any of the credit that he's gotten because of his last name and because of that people are less likely to suspend their belief? He's been like, yeah, I don't know. Like, do you abide into my name theory, though? Like, do you think that his name is actually causing more haters or more naysayers? It's definitely causing more haters. I don't think it's actually doing any damage to him. I think in terms of perception, yes. I think there are people who are like, oh, you're

only talking about him because his last name is Manning. Well, that's partially true. They're right. I think we talk about him. People want to listen. We talk about him as much like I don't think that we've talked about him more than DJ Lackley. I don't think we've talked about.

No, I don't think we have. Ellers. I don't think that we're abusing his name because he's he's I think that we have talked've talked about him more than we have. I don't think that we're abusing his name because he's, I think that we have talked proportionately about him, as you would any five star player who is going to take over at the number one program in the country right now. And we didn't force this conversation in either, by the way, like you were peppering me with text for the last two days wanting to do this.

I mean, it's not, it's just, it blows my mind. Like what's the, so there are two routes routes there are three routes here I should say one he's bad and it's just gets booted off off the field and is replaced by whoever's on the bench two he's just like Quinn yours which is productive and fine but not truly elite and there's truly elite right like if you actually look at the path of least resistance, like the most likely outcome is probably that he's just like Quinn, which is just very productive, but not like make your face melt off when you watch him.

In Texas stays good and yes. But, and I think if that's the case, and he stays healthy and puts up the numbers, he'll still be a Heisman finalist. Like I think that like people, and I also think that if that's the case, much like Quinn Ewers would have been in the top 10 lists a year ago, like that's where that is. Like I don't, like if you're in the top 10 quarterbacks list in college football,

that doesn't mean that everybody's Caleb Williams. You know what I mean? Like, was a good quarterback, like acting like if he was going to be like Quinn is a epic failure is wrong and I don't think that Quinn yours was drafted in the appropriate slot So using his draft to weaponize the argument it just blows my mind and then the least likely outcome of all this here Andy Is that he stinks because like I don't even think I don't I actually don't think that's even possible Because here's why, here's why.

He's been at Texas two years. They would have known. They clearly paved the way for him. They told Quinn, you're gonna have to move on because it's Arches time. If he stunk, none of this would have happened. He would have been there a year or two and they'd have been like, okay, this isn't gonna work

and he would have transferred somewhere else. Quinn probably would have come back a year or two and they'd have been like, okay, this isn't going to work and he would have transferred somewhere else. Quinn probably would have come back and played another year. The fact that all of these things have happened should logically tell you that they feel like he's the guy to be the starting quarterback. And let's be honest here, they did pick Arch over Quinn right now because they had the option to not do that, they've clearly done that.

Yes, so when it comes to Sark. And this is a comment that I think is really interesting from Zach here, and it helps along with the chat that I wanted to do, but Zach said Sark is a bit overrated as an offensive wizard. He is near the top, but he constantly over thinks it. And I think that's true. I think that he overthought the goal line package in the Ohio State game. I think there are times where, you know, Texas has let its foot off the gas when they're up big offensively.

You know, I think that like when it comes to drawing up plays and putting receivers and quarterbacks in a position to excel, he does a great job. But I think that there is room to critique him from offensive flow game plan. Um, you know, play calling in the middle of games, especially when they're ahead. I think that like a Texas fan would, would agree with that. Um, that said, I also think that he's a proficient quarterback coach and guru. And I think that everything that he's done in terms of how he's laid out the future of the program has already told you what he thinks of him. So like, I think that there are other things that you can use to guide an opinion or a projection outside of then how many touchdowns that he threw against Florida last year.

Like, there are other tea leaves to be read here. And we've covered college football enough to know that it's not just he needs to play nine games of consistently good football before we know he's good. Like Texas has already told us through actions that he's good. Like it's like he's going to be good. Like there's no doubt in my mind. Well, and that's the other piece of it.

Like people need to watch people's actions more than what they say. And Texas's actions have told us an awful lot already. But going back to the overthinking part, which I think is a really interesting thing with him. Is it possible that he over thought the quarterback position last year a little bit like we had a season-long debate about whether he should have thrown arch into the Wolf's Den

against Georgia in the first half, but then we also had a season long debate about whether he should have thrown arch into the wolves den against Georgia in the first half. But then we also had a debate about whether or not, because my outrageous prediction heading into the playoff was that Quinn, yours would start the playoffs as their quarterback, but arch would have finished it and that never happened. But then he did use arch in situational times in the sec championship game that worked them and fourth downs and in the A and M games. Now remember Quinn's ankle was hurt, which made him less mobile than usual. And so that was the the genesis of that package, which I wrote at the time.

It's like it's like how Florida used Tim Tebow in 2006, except in this case, Arch has already shown he can run the full offense. So is this is this the time? But it wasn't the time. Yeah. So here's the thing that I wanted to put a bow on and I wanted to throw back at you Andy, which is if you think and agree that Sarkeesian overthinks things at times, which I think he has, I think it is more likely that he overthought the veteran leadership, Quinn Ubers,

glue guy stuff with the team last year, than it is that Arch Manning wasn't good enough to play. Like, that's the other thing too. Like if your evidence of Arch Manning isn't gonna be very good is, Arch couldn't even beat out Quinn Ubers. I think that's a deeper, more complex conversation than he's not as good at football as Quinn. Like, I think there's also conversations that we don't have access to.

But clearly the Manning family has made this very methodical and it's been planned very carefully. And it's not like, oh, he's not playing. We're going to have him transfer it was like, oh no, we want him to sit and develop and it like this may all have been part of the plan too. Yeah. So I don't know where we're where you are with things but like I think that betting him to be a Heisman finalist is as close to a lock as a as a bet in the off side. I don't think it's a lock at all because lots of

different things can happen. I think he's going to put up big numbers and he's going to be a manning and he's going to lead Texas to the CFP next year. And I think that's those three combinations is enough for this guy. And I think that the reason why he might make it to the semi or to the Heisman finalist, he might be helped by his name because he's gonna be a superstar.

The idea that he isn't gonna be very good just blows my mind. Sailor Joe here, defense is stacked and reloaded. Offensively, I'm worried about the young receivers. Running back should be average, but the O-line needs to be ready week one. I think that's a fair encompassing of Yeah, and I think the offensive line is an interesting one and we said this multiple times over this offseason. I would have worried more if Texas had gone headlong into the transfer portal trying to grab offensive linemen to start for them. They didn't do that. trying to grab offensive lineman to start for them, they didn't do that.

They felt like the guys they had in the pipeline were ready and were ready to move up. And I think what you've seen so far with Kyle Flood as the offensive line coach, former Rutgers head coach, that they've done a good job turning those blue chip offensive line recruits into effective offensive lineman. Yeah.

Um, so Deandre Moore and Ryan Wingo I think will be fine at the receiver position. I think that they're going to be fine at the receiver position of CJ Baxter recovered from his knee injury and is himself. I'm sure he's going to be. Also, if the lines good, I know I don't want to minimize the CJ Baxter part. Cause CJ Baxter was a big time recruit. What we got to see of him was great before he got hurt. But they, if the line is good

and the receivers are decent and they're throwing the ball, like the running game will take care of itself. It'll be just fine. Well, they also have Wyster who ran the ball really hard last year. And then they also have Arch who runs really well. Like I think I don't to have that in the toolbox. And I think that's interesting too, because I think a lot of it, this is actually,

not to tie two of our favorite things together, similar to the Shador Sanders conversation, where a lot of the people who want to talk about Arch Manning, just like a lot of the people want wanna talk about Shidur Sanders, don't really follow college football that closely. They're just, they see this name that they know and that's what they wanna talk about. But Monty Jones had a really good discussion of this the other day on his show,

where he was talking about the Shidur situation. And he was talking about all the people who followed Colorado since Dion got there and how most of them have no clue what's going on in college football. Don't understand college football at all. Can't contextualize things in college football because all they care about is Dion. In this case, they're seeing the Manning name and not really think about it. The thing about Arch that I find very interesting that if you're just looking at his last name

and making assumptions, okay, here's the photo. I'm glad this is the photo that came up because we use this photo a lot in our B roll of Arch just striding while running the ball. Like, this is not Eli and this is not Peyton. And I mean that in a good way and a bad way. I don't know if he can throw like Eli or Peyton. We'll find out. I don't know if he processes like Eli or Peyton.

We'll find out. I don't know if he processes like Eli or Peyton. We'll find out. He runs a hell of a lot better than either of them ever did. Like this is a much more athletic quarterback than his uncles. And part of the reason, if you don't know his dad's history, Cooper Manning was gonna be a wide receiver to Ole Miss. He had a neck injury, didn't get to play. But Cooper was by far the most athletic

of the three brothers. Yeah, and the DNA got passed through. And then I also do think, and I don't know if you buy into this, but I've had a theory for a long time in college football in general, and this really came to form when who was the undersized defensive back who went to Minnesota whose dad was. All American draft pick from Ohio State defensive back. I'm trying to remember the name. It doesn't matter, but Ohio State didn't recruit that kid and I'm like well his father was one of

the best. Defensive backs in Ohio State history like that might mean something and then he turned out to be an all American draft pick for someone. Anton Anton Winfield, Winfield Jr. Yes, yes, who is one of the best DBs in the NFL to buy a way, right. But like he didn't get big time offers because he was undersized. Yeah. And I do I really do buy into the fact that

if your dad was a really, really good NFL player, that there's something about your makeup. Or if your family, you know, produced a, that there's something about your makeup, or if your family produced a lot, there's something about your makeup that will help you. I don't think that it hurts you. It will help. Well, there's also, there's the experience that you've been handed,

that you've had handed down to you for a long time, for your entire life, that other people's families cannot offer them. Like, let's say my son grows 5 inches this year and. Suddenly can carry you know 300 pounds effectively and run really fast and like. I can't tell him what to expect. As a blue chip offensive line recruit,

I have no I I did. That wasn't me. I didn't experience that. I couldn't be like if he were a really good college player, couldn't tell him what that's like. Couldn't tell him what what the NFL is like. These guys, you're talking about Antoine Winfield, you know, Arch Manning, they're very lucky in that they have people who've been in that rare era who can really give them great advice. So it does help. It certainly helps. give them great advice. So it does help. It certainly helps.

And I think at the quarterback position, especially in terms of processing in terms of understanding the game, I feel like that will help him. Like I don't think that like his last name will hurt him in his development. I think it can only help. So like when you add up everything the supporting cast the measurables the recruiting ranking the, the family, the coach's actions,

the fact that Quinn wasn't allowed to come back, like all these things all point in one direction. And if you don't want to acknowledge that because he didn't play enough last year or because Quinn Youwers got drafted in the seventh round or because you're just a manning hater, that's your prerogative. But like, I've been wrong a lot.

Maybe I'll be wrong here. Maybe Arch will stink. But I think that all the evidence, when added up together, has already unequivocally pointed to the direction that he's gonna be very good. And a lot of times in life, the most likely outcome is what happens. It's not always a conspiracy.

It's not always, you know, bull crap that runs the show. Like sometimes it's just the obvious explanation or the obvious results. What's going to happen? Occam's razor Ari. Occam's razor. Yes. And I've learned how to spell that the other day. There you go.

All right. You get in a story. I'm so proud of you. I've been saying that a lot, but it's just like Schrodinger's cat and Occam's razor in this discussion. We're getting real highbrow now. Yeah, but I just like, you know, there's just like Schrodinger's cat and Occam's razor in this discussion. We're getting real highbrow now. Yeah, but I just like, you know. There was just like this this thing in college football just drives me nuts.

It happened with the Penn State story on Monday. It happened when I picked Texas to go to the playoff a few years ago. Like there is just no thought. It's just given by the thing that hasn't happened recently. Can't possibly ever happen. I got I had a Georgia fan on Instagram telling me I was some kind of special autistic because I ranked them number eight and he said how many times in the last few years has Georgia

even finished lower than eight? Well, I didn't say they're gonna finish lower than eight. I said eight. But just because they have it doesn't mean they won't. Somebody called me a hypocrite because I said, just because something happened in the past doesn't always mean that it's going to happen again. And then I said on the show that I thought Georgia would be similar to last year.

And he said those both, both of those things can't be true. No, they both can cause Georgia can be similar to last year. And then some other thing that hasn't happened before. Yes. It happened. That doesn't mean that everything changes all the time, no matter what. Sometimes things stay the same. And when it comes to my Georgia analysis is their team looks very similar to me on paper. And so my Georgia at eight, what did I say yesterday? The teams I have one through eight, I have, I would expect any of them

to win the national title. That's some, I would not be shocked to any of the teams I have in the top eight with a national title. I'm not going to let Brett Bielema see that. Well, Brett Bielema can see it. Billy Napier can see it. Joey McGuire can see it. Shane Beamer can see it. Like, I feel comfortable with those eight. I feel very comfortable. I want because like, I think that you're on my team here, but you haven't provided your opinion. Like what do you think?

Is going to happen with Arch like do you think he's going to be awesome? I think he's going to be very good. I don't know if he's going to be elite because that's it's really hard to predict like think this Ari, the last few truly elite quarterback. Years we've seen now. I think we thought Caleb Williams was going to be going into his Heisman year, which was the year he transferred USC. We'd seen enough in half a year at Oklahoma to believe that he was going to ascend. But I don't think any of us saw Jaden Daniels or Joe Burrow

being as good as they were in their second seasons as starters at LSU like go back to 2018. Joe Burrow was a good quarterback. Not a single person thought that Joe Burrow was going to be the Heisman Trophy winner and the number one overall draft pick. Going into that season. No one thought that Joe Burrow was going to be the Heisman Trophy winner and the number one overall draft pick. Going into that season, no one thought that no one thought Jaden Daniels going to be as good as he is going into the 2023 season and he was incredible.

And I think that goes back to my Dylan Ryo discussion with you yesterday like sometimes quarterbacks change overtime. Sometimes they don't like Quinn's a good example of this. Quinn in his first year as the starter at Texas and Quinn last year. I don't know how different they were like Quinn against Alabama. Remember in Alabama went to Austin and Quinn got hurt in that game.

Quinn was balling out in that game. Like I don't know that Quinn was appreciably better last year than he was in that game. Like, I don't know that Quinn was appreciably better last year than he was in that game. So some some don't evolve as much but some evolved tremendously. I didn't burrow jayden daniels, you know, they did. Dylan reola out of a hat and say he can't get better. Like that's not what happened. Please, like we cannot. I expressed. You said there are certain things that

About once you see them you can't unsee them and they they don't you think you don't think they can be fixed that they can be fixed Or you do think they can be fixed. No, I don't know. I don't I don't know that I don't understand I don't understand why quarterback can't get more accurate. These are things that I don't understand Yeah, I I don't understand why quarterback can't get more accurate. These are things that I don't understand. Yeah. I don't think we know the answer to that. We just know it hasn't happened. I'm just going to NFL draft people say, which is right. Struggle under pressure.

That's a lifelong problem. Because the accuracy thing, everybody's like, yeah, but Josh Allen, but you can't name anybody else because he's not accurate in college. To be honest, I thought he was awesome in college. No, he wasn't accurate, but a lot of it was the level of teammate versus the level of competition. Like he played a game against Iowa

his last year at Wyoming where they were just God awful. Terrible. Everybody was bad. And you watch that game, you're like, how's this guy going to succeed in the NFL? So that that's the thing. But I like this discussion. I'm fascinated by Arch Manning.

We're going to talk about him a lot this year because he's the starting quarterback of Texas now. And also too, you see you guys know. If you like think that you're, if you're a conspiracy person that thinks that we're just pumping them up because of his last name and it's good for business and we're Texas homers, that's fine. Got a really small little secret for you. It's better for the show if he stinks. I don't know if that came through. Or is whispering very quietly.

It is actually better for the show if he stinks. It's true. He's not going to though. It's all right. Because Crane Rex and Burning Wreckage are great for the show. We'll get to one of those later. We are going to talk about one of those. First, I got to tell you about Culver's. We are presented by Culver's. They brought us to Wisconsin for the draft. They were born in Wisconsin, but they are now They brought us to Wisconsin for the draft. They were born in Wisconsin, but they are now all over the country, blessedly, gloriously. I can go get a concrete mixer.

Vanilla with cookie dough, by the way. That's the Lord's combination, I'm telling you right now. I can go right now in Florida, get it right now. I can be there in 10 minutes. Butterburgers, frozen custard, cheese curds, you name it, they got it. Beautiful fish sandwich. Ari had one of those while we were up there in Wisconsin. We love Culver's, we appreciate them. And hey, could be the start of a beautiful,

beautiful friendship. But I really want it like kids doing spring football practice really hot outside. If I show up Ari with a cement mixer, cookie dough cement mixer to hand him after practice, am I the dad of the year? You are. Okay. Done. You most certainly are. Done. All right. Before we get to the situation that continues to get weirder and weirder in Chapel Hill. Talk about one more thing that is going to be a topic of conversation probably for the next couple of weeks.

The SEC eight or nine game conversation is back mostly because somebody, a friend of mine texted me about it and said, hey, what is the SEC doing with this? And I was like, you know what? I don't know. So I started calling around. And the debate over this thing, which has been raging for probably three and a half, four years now, has shifted again. And now it's reached a very logical point. And I think I think we can kind of pinpoint what's going to happen. So

talk some folks yesterday. And basically what I was told is the 80s in the SEC are waiting to see what the college football playoff format looks like in 2026 and beyond before they decide what they want to vote on for the eight or nine game thing. Essentially if there are automatic bids, like if that one proposal, which we think is the one that'll eventually pass, 14 teams, four Big 10, four SEC, two ACC, two Big 12,

highest ranked of the other conferences, one at large, we think if that one passes, they'll go to nine games. If not, they'll stay at eight because basically they looked at the Alabama South Carolina Ole Miss situation last year and said they don't think the committee is considering strength of schedule. Now Ari, you and I have had this discussion. We think they did, but the third loss was what knocked them

out, because let me ask you this. We think they did. But the third loss was what knocked him out. Because I let me ask you this. It just kind of can I just jump in real quick? Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead. So I understand the grandstanding during the season to try to get teams in. I understand threatening that we're not going to schedule a certain way because of what's happening.

But like is there actually a fundamental misunderstanding of how this works to people in that position? Like, do they actually think that their strength of schedule hurt them? That is not politics or local Ari. And their thing is, because they're looking at it like you add an extra conference game, half the conference gets another loss. So that's why they're looking at it that way. But I talked to one of the people I talked to, it was an AD, thought that it needs to go the automatic bid route because they're worried that if they don't go the automatic bid route, everybody's going to just dumb down their schedules. They were very concerned about what Matt Ruhl said.

This person was very concerned about what Matt Ruhl said where he's like, well, why would we schedule any good games out of conference? Because the concern is if you're just going by the loss column, people will just continue to try. And this person brought it back to the BCS Like you can watch the schedules get dumbed down after the BCS took the strength schedule component out Schools responded to that by dumbing down their schedules. So if you want better games You want incentives to play better games?

but You want incentives to play better games. But the question is, I want to go as far as automatic bids for these leagues. I want teams to dumb down their schedule and then be left out at the end because they don't have quality wins. But I'm worried they won't. Yeah, I mean, they might not. I mean, I would 12 for sure. You know, certainly more.

Here's the thing. If the pick 10 in the SEC wants something to happen in the 26 and beyond playoff, I'm pretty sure they can get what they want. Here's the point. In the 12 team field, Andy. The teams that are in the 9 to 15 range are always going to be very similar. There are a lot of 10 and 2 teams out there. There are a lot of 9 and 3 teams out there. When it was a 4 team playoff, you either had to be a 1 loss team or an undefeated team, of which there were much fewer. Right. So when you get to the end of the road here, if you are being compared with four other teams with the same record, you will be left out if you don't have good wins.

It's going to happen. You say you fear that they won't be and some years they won't. But there are certainly years that even in Indiana from last year could have been left out if the SEC didn't be well And that's that's the thing I think because I think they were Taking schedule strength into account and that had Alabama or South Carolina or Ole Miss finished 10 and 2

They would have been ranked ahead of Indiana like let's say Ole Miss does not lose and gains now and they finished 10 and 2 They would have been 10 and 2 two they would have been 10 and two in Indiana would have been 11 and one but I bet Ole Miss would have been ranked ahead of Indiana. Yeah yeah I think it's possible that they are two games away from being out that's Alabama beating Oklahoma and Ole Miss not losing to Georgia. If that would have happened, Indiana would have been out. Florida. Yeah. Because Ole Miss beat Georgia. But yes. Yeah. Florida, not Georgia. Sorry.

Yeah. So I think they considered it, but we'll see what happens. I don't know when this is going to come down exactly. Greg Sankey has said he wanted the SEC decision made before they have their spring meetings in Destin, which is at the end of this month. I don't know that that's going to happen because it sounds like they're waiting for the CFP to have a format, but the CFP has to have a format soon too. Like the next, the, the 2026 CFP, not the one that's happening this season, but the one that's happening next season happens in 19 months.

Like you gotta have a format. Yeah, it's uh. We're getting there. We're getting close, so something's gonna have to happen. But I just like I don't know if the SEC is going to play itself by not going that route, but the SEC is never going to have a strength of schedule problem. Well here's my problem if they stay at eight. If they stay at eight they have to do something different than what they were planning to

do because what they were planning to do if they stayed at eight was they're going to have seven rotating opponents and one fixed opponent for every team. If that happens, Alabama, Tennessee and Auburn, Georgia, which the SEC bent over backward to protect for decades, you're just saying that doesn't need to be played every year. That's not the one that bothers me though. Texas and Texas A&M wouldn't play every year. That's the stupidest possible outcome. You have to fix that.

You have to figure out a way to have them play every year. If you're only going to stay at eight games, figure it out. Yeah, and it may not be a perfectly round rotation. You may just have to to mess with your schedules, make different little ad hoc schedules every two years. Figure it out. Yeah, or just like start from scratch every year. Yeah, yeah, I don't know. Figure it out. Yeah. Like Texas and Texas A&M have to play every year. And I would argue that George and Auburn and Alabama and

Tennessee have to play every year too. If you spent that long, if you made everybody else play boring ass schedules for that long for those games, then by God, they're important to you. So don't throw them out now. Yep. Producer River says that mean Red Rivers worth sacrificing annually? That's not going away. Texas Oklahoma is the one they keep.

Let's not forget though, that it is possible for an SEC team's schedule to be called into question. And it didn't end up happening, but Texas was in a danger zone for a few weeks there last year. it is possible for an SEC teams question, uh, scheduled to be called into question. And it didn't end up happening, but Texas was in a danger zone for a few weeks there last year. Let's not forget that. Yes. There were Michigan beating Ohio state really helped Texas a lot. I think. Yeah.

There was, there was some danger there for them. If things would have gone differently, they could have been left out of the one lost team. So like there are. Right. And. And that's the thing with these massive conferences. As you learned last year, not all schedules and conferences are created equal. Indiana schedule and Oregon schedule were very different. Texas's schedule and Georgia's schedule were different. Texas's schedule and Oklahoma's schedule were different. Dex is a schedule and Oklahoma schedule were different. So like that it's there's a lot of variation now when you have that many teams in conference. Yep.

All right Ari. Let's move on to a topic that you said a few weeks ago you didn't understand why this was a topic of interest. I think you're on board now. That was written was written, but now it's starting to make sense to me. Yes. So more North Carolina stuff. Jordan Hudson is the girlfriend of Bill Belichick.

We've discussed this relationship multiple times on the show. And I'm going to be honest with you, Ari. Like, I'm not a TMZ person. I'm not either. I don't like breaking down people's romantic relationships. I don't even know their names. You know this about me. I don't know celebrity names.

Right. I don't, I'm not comfortable making judgments about someone's romantic relationship because you love who you love, that's your own private business. But when that becomes part of your public business, which it has here in this Bill Belichick situation, then it becomes a story and we got to talk about it. And Jordan Hudson, I said she made it weird with the CBS this Sunday morning interview.

She made it weirder on Monday Ari puts out an Instagram post, an email allegedly written by Bill Belichick and it looks like it's an email to his literary agent. I'm guessing this is to you know maybe to the publisher to you know people in his circle who are involved in the production of his book, which the CBS Sunday Morning Interview was a promo for his book. And this email appears to be about a review of the book. We think it's the review that was in the Boston Globe because that's about the time that this email was written.

And it's basically him saying, hey, I said I'd admit I made a mistake or that I made mistakes and one is not drafting Lamar Jackson. I think the big one is probably not keeping Tom Brady. But he said, hey, I admitted it, but that's all anybody wants to talk about. And then there's this part about, can we control the headline of a story in a newspaper is like no, no you can't And and so Jordan Hudson put this out in response to stories coming out about that CBS Sunday morning interview where apparently she had Other times that she butted in they didn't show on on the show and one period where she stormed off for 30 minutes and they had to just delay the interview. And she said, full statement coming later today.

This was on Monday. No full statement came. She had a Taylor Swift song underneath this Instagram post. It was, look what you made me do. Ooh, look what you made me do. look what you made me do. Ooh, look what you made me do. Look what you made me do. Look what you made me do. Look what you made me do.

Not the correct song for that. She's basically saying, ooh, you made me do this. Now you're gonna get it. The correct Taylor Swift song, because I am a Swifty, would have been I Can Do It With a Broken Heart, which is all about things are going bad, but you gotta be a professional and grit your teeth and get through it.

That would have made more sense in the context of the email. But I don't think she was thinking that far ahead. We didn't get a full statement yesterday, Ari, but we did get another story from the athletic involving emails between people in North Carolina and somebody else. So remember how there was going to be a hard knocks featuring the North Carolina football team and then suddenly there wasn't? You'll never guess who was involved in that. that? Andy, I saw reports that this could be a problem or this could grow into a problem.

I'm starting to get the sense that this could grow into a problem. I am too. I am too. And can you imagine? I was talking about this with Producer River before the show, can you imagine a few years ago, the last Super Bowl the Patriots won? That was when they beat the Rams, right? The Rams couldn't move the ball, couldn't get over the 50.

Can you imagine going up to somebody right after that game and saying in 2025, Bill Belichick will be the head coach at the University of North Carolina and the bigger part of the story will be his 24 year old girlfriend budding in on interviews. And basically trying to manage his career. I could what would you have thought? The power dynamic is much different outwardly than I thought it would be. But also too, like if she's storming off in the interview

and like budding into things that don't really, that don't really fall under what I would believe would be her purview, which is being his girlfriend. Like how far does she feel she's entitled to make decisions? How far does she feel she's entitled to, you know, impact things at UNC and how far is the scope of what she believes her responsibilities are and how far does Bill Belichick allow that to go? Because clearly he's, he's comfortable with it because this clearly he's he's comfortable

with it because this is a guy who's been very much in control of everything his entire career. So does Britt come in here and have like creative freedom over our podcast. No, it's I'm thinking about this. It'd be like my wife going on social media and arguing with people who think my top 25 is dumb, like why would she do that? Yeah, she doesn't care.

Yeah, no, it's it's bizarre. It's honestly, this is bizarre to me. It that's all I could say. I don't know. It's a bizarre thing. So you and I have talked about this already. We have expressed reservations. Because I was excited at first, like greatest coach of all time coming to college football. It's going to be, it's going to be a blast. It's going to be fun to watch, fun to watch him match wits with the college football coaches, fun to see how he builds a roster, all that stuff.

college football coaches, fun to see how he builds a roster, all that stuff. But we've also said, as we've watched them work on this roster and as we watch them get this team ready, that perhaps they're underestimating the difficulty of the job they've taken. And the expectations there, cause like Mac Brown was not failing miserably there. This is not a Dion taking over Colorado situation. Like they would like to move from the seven and eight game realm to the nine and 10 win realm. The CFP realm. Yeah.

I worry this may be more difficult than they originally imagined. Yeah, especially if like the most interesting thing about his tenure there so far is his girlfriend. Like, you know, you would have hoped for some like recruiting stuff to pop or some innovation to pop or something. But like we've talked very little about him

because it's kind of boring. Nothing's happening there. And I think that's by design. I don't think he wants to let a whole lot out. And he didn't let a whole lot out when he was the Patriots coach. The difference is he always controlled the message. And now he's letting someone else control the message

for him and it is not great. him and it is not great. Yeah and the 24 year old woman or man isn't really experienced in my opinion to be dealing with things at such a high leverage moment too. Like these are big big big decisions that are being made here. Well to me it's more like you can be 24 and have a preternatural understanding of a certain industry. There are those people.

But given her actions so far, and because she's acting essentially as a publicist here, she does not understand public relations or how it works or certain media markets. Because it's only gotten worse. That's the thing. Any perception that she was afraid would happen has only gotten worse like that's the thing with any reception that she was afraid would would happen has only gotten worse I have people on her Instagram story yesterday Ari. She had a photo a video of the book That she was allegedly reading when they met on the plane that he signed it's the same video that was on TMZ With a story about their meet cute

Last year video that was on TMZ with a story about their meet cute last year. Do you think she took the video from TMZ or do you think she's the one who gave the video to TMZ? Yeah. Like essentially that would suggest she planted the TMZ story about how they met and then she's the one saying we're not answering that to how'd you meet? And why was it even being filmed to begin with? Right, right. So you go down the rabbit hole. Like if you if you like make things weird and then people start thinking twice about things like, well, why is there a video where people are 101? Well. Look, I'm sure Jordan's fairly well read.

I'm sure she knows what the Streisand effects is. Do you know what the Streisand effect is, Ari? I've heard it before, but I can't define it for you. So somebody was taking pictures of houses on the cliffs of Malibu because they're beautiful. It was just a photographer taking these pictures, and I think they had them on their, I believe they just had them on their website.

I don't think they made a book or anything. But one of them was Barbra Streisand's house. She sued to get the photo taken down. When she sued, hardly anybody had even seen it. And no one knew it was Barbra Streisand's house. Suddenly everyone knew it was Barbra Streisand's house. Everyone knew exactly where Barbra Stre Sands house was and she kept directing more people to the photo. That's what happened with that CBS Sunday morning. We're not going to answer that question. Not talking about this. Yeah, we're not talking about this. Yes, we are.

Can we have that as a sound effect? Like for our show moving forward? We're not talking about this. For the rest of the year, like Arch Manning. Not talking about this for the rest of the year like. Arch Manning not talking about this. Dylan Raiola not talking about this. Perfect I wish if I had the ability like they had like buttons for me because like there are certain times where I want to push that button where I couldn't communicate it to River. Like you know, like I want to push that button.

You're like. We do have that ability, Ari. How do I get it? Stream yard. If you go to, if you click the tab that says media assets, we can do sound effects. Okay, well. It's in the background music tab.

Media assets. You scroll all the way down, you'll see the background music. We can plug those in and we can play them whenever we want. I think Ari left the stream. He's trying to find the background music. I'll show you.

If I wanted to play the Family Feud right answer. There it is if I want to play the family feud wrong answer if I wanted to play Ari this is what you want what you want because I don't know where you're looking at this but I don't know if this is like what you want workshopping this live it's probably not the best I left the studio on accident I'm not stopping this live. It's probably not the best. I left the studio on accident. That is what you want! There's me saying it. What did Ari go again? There you go. That was River. I didn't do that. Yeah, so I'm excited to follow this

Jordan Hudson thing. I'm excited to follow North Carolina. And I'm super excited about their football team, but now it's like I've got like my wife's friends were texting me who's Jordan Hudson yesterday. Oh, this is, this is reached escape velocity. This story. So the story in the athletic today is that Bill Belichick was the one who actually wanted

the hard knocks thing to happen. Remember NFL films does hard knocks. It's not HBO, the company does not do hard knocks. NFL films does it and then sells it to HBO. So this is not some fly by night organization, like this is NFL freaking films. And apparently Bill Belichick made the inquiry and said, hey, I would like this to happen.

They start negotiations, they're almost to the finish line and then suddenly an executive producer from NFL Films emails North Carolina and says, yeah, we're not doing this. And it turns out that Jordan Hudson's behind this somehow? Well, according to Andrew Marshand and Matt Baker and Brendan Marks who wrote the story at The Athletic, there were industry sources who confirmed that Jordan Hudson wanted more involvement

and it was more than NFL Films was willing to give. I wish I had I had something to say other than my head shaking. I don't know what to tell you. Not talking about this. That's what you're saying. We are talking about this Ari, but yes, it is reached escape velocity. It is no longer a college football story. It is a TMZ. I don't know if we've reached have we reached Good Morning America? But yes, it is reached escape velocity. It is no longer a college football story. It is a TMZ.

I don't know if we've reached, have we reached good morning America? It's like CBS Sunday morning is a different, different genre. Have we reached today? Show good morning America at this point. I think we're almost there. Yeah. Well, the question is, is whether or not we're going to get to, uh, like one of the more serious shows, like they they're gonna have to like circle back

into another interview to clear this thing up or do you think it's just like try to I wouldn't I would let this die but I would I would not say anything else I would be like we will see you in North Carolina plays TCU week one yeah until then we ain't talking yeah this could be international news a year from now when they play in Ireland too. So well, I will tell you the idea, because we talked about this at the draft. You know, let's say the Giants have a bad year and they fire their coach. Bill Belichick is beloved in Giants land. He was the DC under Bill, Bill Parcells. You would think that that would be a nice logical conclusion.

But if all of this is going on, I don't think an NFL team is going to touch him. I just think that the shift from like the number one first lady in college football, which was Sally Brown, to this is hilarious. Because like Sally was like very very and Mac is too nice to do this and loves North Carolina too much but I bet he's laughing his ass off right now yeah guaranteed because he didn't want to leave yeah they had to fire him so yeah I think he's probably laughing. Now, here's the thing about this. We'll leave it here. If they're super good, none of this.

None of it. But if they're not, oh my God, this could get even weirder. And we are here for it because it's April. We got a long time till the season starts. Yeah, I mean, we sent him a care package for giving us something to talk about. But yeah, definitely excited to see how this all plays out. And it's not just older coach has young pretty girlfriend. Now it's like pretty girlfriend is like running things there and I don't know where that's going to head.

But we'll see where it goes. And we'll be here to talk about it. That's right. And tomorrow, we're gonna talk about tomorrow's show. Dear Andy, Dear Ari Show, you drive the show. We've already had a couple good questions, but we love all of your questions. You know where to find us,

at Andy underscore Staples on your social media feeds at Ari Wasserman. Andy staples on three at gmail.com Ari dot Wasserman at on three dot com. Hit us up. We will answer your questions on tomorrow's show. Like I said, we've already got a couple good ones, but we could definitely use a few more because you guys are geniuses. We love when you drive the show. You've been incredible in the chat again today as usual, and we can't thank you enough. So please tell your friends about the show.

We've noticed an uptick here in the last few weeks. There's been a lot to talk about. So listen, we're gonna get you ready for this coming college football season. We're all going to get through this off season together. So hit us up with those questions at Andy undersource staples at Ari Wasserman, Andy staples, rd.com Ari dot Wasserman at on three.com. We'll talk to you tomorrow.