Andy & Ari On3 - The Big Ten MOVES FIRST on banning NFL players a return to college football: What will others do? Week 0 Picks: North Carolina vs TCU, NC State at Virginia

Episode Date: August 25, 2026

On Tuesday morning, ESPN reported that the Big Ten is set to pass a rule that bans NFL players from returning to college football in their conference. In light of Dae’Quan Wright’s case, the Big Ten is expected to move forward this rule, and this brings in the question if the other leagues will follow. Watch here as Andy & Ari ponder if the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 will follow suit in this.   (0:00) On Today's Episode (1:00) Presenting Sponsor (2:50) Intro: Big Ten & NFL Players (6:50) SEC, Big 12, ACC Response? (14:57) What about the others? (23:44) Did Ari Do This? Arion Carter suspension update (27:07) LMNT (29:23) Week 0 Picks: North Carolina vs TCU (36:00) TCU Side of things (46:28) Brunt Workwear (47:35) Virginia vs NC State (56:35) Rest of Week Zero (58:39) Closing Out   After the Big Ten news, Andy & Ari have an update on Arion Carter's suspension out of Knoxville. Should Ari take the credit?   Next up, it's time to pick the week zero games.   Andy & Ari pick:   North Carolina vs TCU (-7.5)   NC State at Virginia (-5.5)   Our show is presented by Polymarket!   New User Offer: Deposit $10, get $20 upon sign up   https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/ON3   Trade on College Football games every week on Polymarket. Download the Polymarket App with code ON3 for a $20 bonus upon sign up.   18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirement apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur.     Get $10 off at BRUNT with code ON3 at https://www.bruntworkwear.com/On3 and enter THE BRUNT POTTY OF GOLD SWEEPSTAKES for your chance to win $50,000. No purchase necessary. Ends 9/18/26. Official rules apply. #Bruntpod   We are sponsored by LMNT! Get a free 8-count sample place with any purchase: https://www.drinklmnt.com/andyari     Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/join   Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/rUkE4VOEg1A   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Orion 3 presented by Polymarket, will the leagues make rules saying that if you played in an NFL camp, if you signed a pro contract, that you can't come back to college, the Big 10s kicking it around, so is the SEC, so is the Big 12, so is the ACC. We might see those rules made, and then we find out will they be followed by the schools. still very much in question. Also, there are games on Saturday. We are going to pick some of them.

Ari and I will pick North Carolina TCU in Dublin. We will also pick NC State, Virginia in Charlottesville. Polymarket has the spreads. We are ready to roll. We are ready to pick some games. I destroyed Ari last year. Can I keep it rolling this year? We'll find out.

All on today's episode of Annie and R.N. 3 presented by Polymarket. We got a new sponsor alert, Ari. We are now brought to you by Polymarket. That's right. Available in all 50 states. Download that Polymarket app. And now we're taking positions. It's what we're always doing.

We're moving markets. It feels great. Yeah. We're market movers, guys. Exactly. So this works very much like what you're used to. The difference is, well, if you've traded soybean futures or pork bellies, you're really going to know what's going on.

but basically you're taking a position saying something to the tune of, I don't know, I think Auburn will win more than seven and a half games. And based on how many other people take the position either with you or against you, that changes your payout. And it also changes as the season goes on. So you've got that. You've also got positions you can take on games that are going on right now, like Major League Baseball, or once college football gets kicked off,

there will be positions on games that are going on. be spreads. It will be very similar to what you're used to. So, download the Polymarket app and use the code on three. New users get $20 when they deposit 10 on sign-ups. So you deposit 10 bucks, you get 20 bucks from Polymarket and you start trading. Ari, it feels like football season, man. There's nothing better than my two favorite things in the entire world, Andy, college football and trading. That's right. So let's start trading with Polymarket. Download that app, use the code on three. When you deposit $10, you get $20. $20 right off the bat.

Ari, let's have a show. Let's have a show. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Welcome to Annie and Ari on 3 presented by Polly Market, and we talked a lot yesterday about players who are in NFL camps

potentially wanted to come back and play in college. We talked about how I thought the SEC needed to attempt to invest. force its own unique rule? Well, the SEC didn't do that. The SEC presidents met. And then on Monday night, they released a strongly worded statement that didn't actually do anything saying, we don't want guys who signed pro contracts to come back to college. Okay, cool.

But what are you going to do about it? Well, news comes on Tuesday morning from Pete Thamble of ESPN that the Big Ten is considering doing something about it. Yeah, well, did you stretch this morning? Because this is going to be a very exhausting podcast for you explaining me everything like I'm 12. I think the reason why this podcast is such a good dynamic is because you're like the smart lawyer in the room and I'm like the dumb idiot college football fan. But like I am just very curious. There are no dumb college football fans either.

They're only smart. I'm the dumb college football fan. Andy, so my understanding of this whole situation before we get into all this complicated stuff is that. that the players who were in the NFL who are attempting to come back into college football, it's an isolated incident as a result of the five-for-five rule that was passed too late and people's trying to get back in because of information that they didn't have at the time where they felt like they were forced to declare for the NFL draft. And that this situation is only happening as a result of this one-year window where that is true.

Okay. So I don't like, I understand the big. It's not only happening because of that. It is happening very frequently right now because of that. And I am sympathetic to those players, by the way. I think if you told Dekwon Wright last November that you might be able to get a fifth year of eligibility, he never would have entered the NFL draft.

So that part, I am sympathetic toward them. The overarching issue, which, by the way, you were dealing with in basketball season two, of players who have been pros coming back and playing in college is going to be an issue going forward as long as the money is potentially better for them in college. So if you'd like to enforce your eligibility rules,

you probably need to, one, clarify them and two, actually enforce them. So you're right on this. It's like next year people will also try to leave the NFL and come back, but it won't be because they were wronged based on the timing of the rule. Right. As long as there's money to be made, somebody's going to want to do it.

Yeah. So like I understand the necessity to try to institute a rule that says once you sign with a team, whether you're drafted or undrafted, regardless in the pros, that you are no longer eligible under any circumstance to come back to college football. The thing that kind of irks me about it is that the NCAA made this rule too late. It screwed people from the 2022 recruiting class. And now they're writing a rule that actually will hurt people that were wronged to begin with. while trying to maintain things that everybody still may get a chance to play

because a judge may give them the chance to play and that's the thing but if the Big Ten is successful in doing it for this year they will only be hurting players who are already wronged by the NCAA's timing. Well the Big Ten's

interesting because right now I don't believe we have any Big Ten teams that are entertaining the possibility of taking people who fall into this bucket. Which then, And I wonder, which is my next explain to me like I'm 12 question. It's such a great dynamic because I think a lot of listeners are like you, but there are plenty of people like me who just want to understand.

Is this a play from the Big Ten to get the SEC to follow suit because they don't want those players back? It's not necessarily to get the SEC to follow suit. It's to say, hey, we don't want to be dealing with this. We would prefer not to be dealing with what the SEC is dealing with with regard to LSU right now. I think that is what the Big Ten is saying. This is to cut it off before it happens. But if the SEC is successful in doing so and the SEC doesn't institute the same rule, although I'm assuming that they would like to have that rule,

I'm sure if you asked Ryan Day, do you, if LSU and Alabama and Georgia are successful in doing this in the future, you want to also have the option to do it. Like I think Ryan Day said this past day, I think I read somewhere that he said, we don't want to do it, but we will have to do it because what's best for our team in Ohio State, is what we need to do.

So that's the other thing that that sucks about this entire world of new college football conference regulations is that everybody is starving and desperate for everybody to play by the same rules. And the only thing that keeps happening is that everybody's playing by different rules even more. Well, but the first step might be the only way. Because the same rules, if you don't have the players help make the rules

by collectively bargaining with them, If you just unilaterally impose them and all the schools get together and unilaterally that violates the Sherman Act. That's how they got into this problem in the first place. By the way, I miss this boat. There are players in the Big Ten that this would affect. Trent Hendrick, the James Madison linebacker from last year, who plans to go to UCLA following Bob Chesney. He was in Browns camp.

It does seem to always come back to the Browns. So, yes, there would be an effect here too. Let me paint you a picture real quick. Okay. College football semi-final. You've got the LSU Tigers of Baton, Louisiana on the left, and the Ohio State Buckeyes from the north. The game is tied 24 to 24 with 14 seconds left.

LSU is at their own 49-yard line with one heave to the end zone. Oh, no, they dump it to take one right underneath. he scampers he makes somebody miss he goes all the way down the sideline it's a touchdown LSU wins they're going to the national championship game I'd be throwing that to trade is green yeah perfectly honest I'll be honest with you Andy at first I was going to say from their own eight or from the Ohio State 18 but then I realized it would just be kicking a field goal so I had to move the ball back ah okay my point is is that like if oh if the big 10 passes this rule the SEC is probably going to pass something similar

they're both going to get challenged in court. Yeah. That's the thing. But this is why I say, if you're these leagues, do this. And go to, let them take you to court. This is one of the few times that you're going to see where the public is firmly on the side of the leagues, firmly on the side of the NCAA. Usually they're not.

Like when it comes to paying players, the opinions are split. But this is not the case here. But I think that we also can at least express some sort of empathy to Dayquan Wright, who I am fully on board of playing. And a judge may wind up allowing Dayquan Wright to play, but Dayquan Wright may need to sue the SEC individually to make that happen. Let's say the SEC makes a rule. Yeah.

And the SEC's also got that rule that I mentioned yesterday that Dayquan Wright would probably have to contend with. but you can knock them out in the same lawsuit that would say he couldn't go from Ole Miss to LSU because of when he entered the transfer portal. And Dayquan White's argument in his lawsuit would be unique in the fact that he was impacted by the timing of the rule in a way that people next year would not. Somebody who would try to do this next year would not have that argument.

So if I'm them, the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, I would make that rule. Let them take you to call. court because you've been saying all along, if this Senate bill fails, plan B is we make our own rules regarding enforcement, or excuse me, regarding eligibility, regarding compensation, all that stuff. And we enforce our own rules. So you try that.

And as Ross Dellinger from Yahoo, my co-hosts on the College Football Enquirer notes, it's important to note that league-wide rules do not absolve a conference from legal challenges. In fact, conferences likely will be sued by athletes as defendants in separate lawsuits or added as defendants in existing lawsuits many times in front of the same judges. So this judge in Louisiana who granted the TRO that is allowing De Kuan Wright to play may wind up presiding over a hearing soon enough where Dayquan Wright is suing the SEC over a rule that says you can't do this. And he may, this judge may off, may, may, issue the same TRO or an injunction that allows him to play.

You're muted R. Sorry, there was a vacuum cleaner running in the background and I'm trying my best to not mess up the sound on the show and then I ultimately mess up the sound on the show. I do think that you'd probably get some varied opinions about where people stand specifically on Dayquan right because there are some people that are using common sense and feel like I think you and I are, we're very in the weeds on this because we cover this. I think the average person just like if you played it in a if you wore an NFL helmet, you're done. So here's one thing that big of a nuance.

Or I do think there's noance. I don't think there's that big of a group that is going to be supporting these guys. Yes. But there's one unequivocal fact, which is if it was a 2021 kid who went to camp and flamed out and then decided no one would be supporting. Nobody would support that. And I think that you are correct and that they should try to institute. the rule because the one thing that college football cannot afford is every fringe NFL prospect declaring seeing how they fare in camp and then making an ultimate decision about whether they're

going to join a team in fall camp if they flame out of a fall camp in the NFL. Right. And so you institute these rules. Let them sue you. And again, you may lose temporarily. There may be injunctions granted or TROs granted that let people play this year. But defend the rules. Stay on your ground on this because you have to do it.

Like if you're going to do this, if you're going to make your own, if you think ultimately the way you're going to make rules is make them conference by conference, you have to be willing to defend them. You also have to be willing to enforce them, which in this particular case with Dayquan Wright also was Avian Harris, who's another former Ole Miss player who could wind up at LSU, that you may have to be in conflict with your school. The school may sue you. You may have to threaten penalties on the school.

Like you can make a rule all you want. If you don't put penalties with teeth in the rule, you don't really have a rule. So what's the rule going to be? Is it going to say you can't play the conference championship game? Is it going to say you have to forfeit every conference game in which you play one of these players. Like these are important details

that also need to be worked out with these leads. Yeah. So, but rare lawsuit discussion where we are generally on board with the institution instead of, you know. And that's why I think they absolutely need, all need to do this and try to defend.

Now, you didn't ask me about the Mountain West or the PAC 12 because I have a very different opinion there. Hey, Andy, what about the Mountain West and the Pack 12? They should be like, we'll take you. Let's make our teams better. Yeah.

And by the way, that would also strengthen the arguments of the Big Ten and the SEC and the ACC and the ACC and the Big 12 because they can be like, look, these leagues are cool with it. We're not. And a judge might say, oh, okay, so you're not colluding here.

Question. 12-year-old again. The Mountain West, though, cannot be the league that always allows it to happen. Well, they can if they want to. So let's just like go down fantasy land real quick. Yeah. The SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 all are like, no, this can't happen,

ACC as well. The Mountain West goes, hey, if you're a flame out in the NFL, you can come play for us. Yep. Do they automatically become the best league in the country? Nope. You don't think? No, here's the thing about the SEC and the Big Ten,

and especially those two, but also in the Big 12 and the ACC. the best players on those teams, Ari, are going to make NFL rosters. These are people who are not going to make NFL rosters. What do you think is a better team? And a team that has 22 total players on offense and defense and has 13 players who will make NFL rosters, or the team that has 22 total players that are good enough to make NFL? Well, then maybe that's how those teams compete.

Yeah. What I'm doing is giving them a way to defaille. defend this. Yeah. Because if they all make the same rule, chances are the courts are going to be like, you're still colluding. You're just trying to pretend you're not.

So what conference would be the most badass NFL flameouts conference? Conference USA! Let's do it. Because there's some pretty good players that and Liberty. There's a pretty good players that have that flame out of, that flame out of camp. Like Diego Pavia is right there waiting to, to play golf.

He can go back to New Mexico State. Let's do it. I'm just saying like if Diego Pavia is the quarterback at Mexico State. If Diego Pobia were the quarterback in New Mexico State for the next 10 years, now here's the other piece of this. Most of these schools cannot offer them enough money so that they would turn down trying to build a career doing something besides football. Yeah.

That's also a good point. But I also wonder if there's money to be found everywhere. You don't think Liberty could figure it out? There's plenty of money figured out for sure. Could Missouri State? Like, that's the question. But, but, I mean, why the hell not? And I know there's people going, but you can't let the guys who are there.

You don't watch Missouri State football anyway. Why do you care? Andy. Sometimes one of us goes on a rant. Yeah. And it happens to be you today where I can already hear the emails. I can already read them. But you don't watch Jacksonville State on a Tuesday,

I do. And I don't care. Yeah. It would be kind of crazy if like some random Mountain West team won the national title because they just had a bunch of players who didn't make it in the NFL. See, Mountain West is less random though. Like I don't know if the Mountain West is going to be willing to do this. University of Nevada, Reno is just making a college football playoff push

and kicking someone's ass in the national title game. Because they just have a bunch of NFL flameouts. Also, I can just picture a bunch of NFL flameouts just moving to Laramie. See, I kind of like this idea because I love, like, I love the quirkiness of college football. And this was just to add to the quirkiness.

Like, yeah, I don't talk the teams with the largest fan bases, the teams with the biggest audiences, it would still be what, what you want it to be, which is college students who've never been pros. Okay. Andy,

I'm like looking, I'm trying to find a list. And is there like, I don't follow the NFL this closely where I know like the list of transactions. But could you just like come up with a fake too deep right now of NFL flameouts for Wyoming? And like so. Like there's no list of players who have been waived that you can just like go and pick the best. Well, a lot of them are still in camp. Like the list will get really long here in the next couple weeks.

Yeah. It's like I just like I'm looking at a transactions list of the NFL right now. and it's like, Kishon Silver was waved by the Saints. It's like he was a pretty good. He was a pretty good. The lineman. Like,

I mean, I don't know. I would take him on Wyoming's roster. I'm just trying to think of, you know, maybe this will be a funny exercise. Bo Collins, the former Clemson receiver,

former Notre Dame receiver, just waved out into the abyss right now. You don't think he'd be an upgraded in Wyoming's wide receiver room? I'm not trying to disparage Wyoming, but like, you could make a pretty freaking good team with these players. Tyron Jones was just released by the Patrick. Maybe that's the way.

Listen, I'm not going to lie, like Conference USA or the Mac wants to do this, how many people would actually know? Well, here's the other thing about this idea, and I have to know this. If you're going to allow it, does this stop people who have played in the league for eight years? Well, right.

And that's why I'm saying make this rule now. So you're not dealing with this over and over and over again. Yeah. Antonio, Antonio. Are you saying Antonio Brown? We'd just come back. Yeah. I just would love that.

When he ran off the field in Tampa, just suiting up for Wyoming. I think he'd still be able to cook a corner of the Mountain West. I think he could cook a corner of the Mountain West right now. I agree. but then again maybe not the new mountain west handy you know producer river i can see him i can see him on the screen just losing his mind he's like you've got you've completely lost the plot here why are you talking about this i mean i don't know it's podcast i think it's good podcasting but like you're you're creating a scenario where they can actually enforce the rules yes i'm giving

the cc and the big 10 the secret and that is call your colleagues in conference USA and the and be like, guys, while we make this rule banning these people, I want you to put out the word to welcome them. Do you think they would even want this? Do you think that the SEC would want that? Because I think that that sounds far-fetched. Or I think would help them. Would they want it? I think they would prefer if there's just an overarching rule in the country.

But that might be impossible right now. Yeah. Trying to think of like fun players who have flamed out. I'd like to see in college again. We'll have more on this. The SEC athletic directors meeting in person today. The Big Ten is supposed to have a call tonight. We'll have more on this tomorrow.

There will be movement probably, and we can give you more specifics about it. Are you interested in writing it, though? Because I think if you wrote it and came up with a really good too deep, it would be hilarious. I'll think about it. I'll do a little research. I'll do some homework.

Like Dylan Gabriel threw for 5,000 yards, and he'll never sniff another starting snap. Who says no? Who says no? Who says no? Did you imagine another year of Bazooka Joe? Huh? Get Joe Milton back?

Where are we putting Joe Milton? What conference USA school are we putting him at? That's actually kind of insulting because I think Joe Milton has a spot firmly in the NFL as a backup. But I'm just saying like there are so many. The thing that collecting cards has done for me is opened up my eyes to how many legitimately awesome college players never sniff a career in the NFL. Yes. Yep.

So the question is like, do you put them at Jacksonville State? And would you watch them at Jacksonville? I don't know. I don't know the answer to that. I don't know. But again, this is where economics comes in. I don't know that Jacksonville State can pay them enough that they would go play for them. They might be like, you know what?

I've got a college degree. I'm going to go build a career here. outside of football. All right, we have little news coming in as we record the show. And I'm going to see if you want to take a victory lap here. You know, I don't really, because I just think that everyone thinks what I thought. Like, I don't know. Go ahead and say the news, but I, you know, this is pretty common sense shit here.

Tennessee linebacker, Arian Carter, had a two-game suspension for, it's so stupid. I don't even want to say it. but an agent bought him a plane ticket to go train for the draft. He decided he was too hurt, pulled his name out of the draft, paid back the cost of the plane ticket. It was like $427. It's so stupid. They suspended him for two games for this.

His suspension has been reduced to one game, either because they read Ari's column this week or someone had an attack of common sense. But it's one of those things. He will not play against Furman. He will play against Georgia Tech. I don't know that he was going to play much against Furman anyway. but now he's going to play against Georgia Tech.

So thank goodness a modicum of common sense prevails, even though he should have never been suspended in the first place and shouldn't be suspended at all. I mean, it sucks that he's suspended for one game still, but at least that one game Tennessee doesn't need him. And we don't know how good Georgia Tech's going to be. I think there's a chance they might not be very good this year, but at least he's playing against their non-conference game

against the power opponent. So, you know, I would love to say that I did this. and maybe this should be our stick of our show every single time we got Miami in the playoff last year I don't know if you guys know that like we literally did that but like we definitely is not you know I don't know like what Pate's got his M-Mas thing like why don't we have something we did this

we need more schicks yeah I realize that you know like I went on Brandon Walker's show and you know we got we got paid we are stick free and I think we need more stick okay new stick We did this. We did this. I did this. Anytime we have an opinion that actually comes to life.

Yes. Like for the ones we're wrong on, we'll just ignore. No, it didn't happen. Yeah. That's how, isn't that how sports predictions work? Unless you have a watchdog like freezing cold takes catching you up. But like also, we also got Keel and Russell the starting Alabama job. We got Phazon Branden the starting job at Tennessee.

We did that. We did that. Yes. Us, not their own ability and them beating. out the competition. Mario, Christopal, if you are listening to the show, and I think that there's a chance that you might be, just know, I think you did a wonderful job last year coaching.

You had a really good team, and I think you guys were going to be very good again. But without us, nothing happened. Nothing happened to last year. Yeah, it had nothing to do with the two first rounders on your D-line. No, we enable the first rounders to showcase their talent in the postseason. Oh, my God. I don't know how comfortable I am with this, but listen, we need stick. Let's do it.

Give us all the credit. Speaking of predictions we'll make that we'll, you know, remind you of every 10 seconds if we're right and ignore if we're wrong. Ari, when we come back from these words from Element, it is time to pick some games. Ari, it is almost football season, but I'm not feeling that crisp in the end. yet it's still a it is still really really hot where I live and you got to stay hydrated because when you're not hydrated electrolyte deficiency can cause imbalance headaches cramps fatigue brain fog and weakness and that is why I am using element I love this I drink I'd say I fill my water bottle I throw a packet of element in there probably three or four times a day

at this point. This is the pink lemonade flavor right here. You see the raspberry salt there. We've also got the sparkling element. Andy, if you want to stay salty. I don't know if you saw this, but it was 108 degrees in Texas over the weekend, which, you know, I'm not a scientist or anything, but it kind of feels like global warming. I don't know if that's happening or not, but it feels like it. I had my cans because I'm not like you. You know, I always need to do the easy thing. And I took the cans in the car and I had like four of them in there. And I had two and Britt had two because it was refreshing and it made me feel better during a really uncomfortable and terrible heat wave.

Absolutely. I love element. So each of these stick packs, which I love, again, one before the workout, one after the workout, various other times throughout the day. Each stick pack delivers a meaningful dose of electrolytes free of sugar, artificial colors, or other dodgy ingredients. This is the best stuff in the world and the flavors are awesome. I highly recommend the watermelon, the mango chili.

They do a great job. So, Element, if you want to get a free eight-count sample pack of Elements most popular drink flavors with any purchase, hit that QR code on the screen as you're watching on YouTube. There's also a link as you are scrolling through your show notes. And you can get a free eight-count sample pack of elements, most popular drink flavors with any purchase. So get yourself some element right now. None of the sugar, none of the dodgy ingredients, just

electrolyte balance for you. Ari, we've talked about rules all offseason. It's time to make some picks. There are games this week. Yeah. You know, I think I heard you say earlier in the show. It's almost football season. Andy, it is football season. It's not almost football season. If you're in game week, it's football season. And it was funny because I was laying in bed last night and Britt said, hey, we should go do a pool day somewhere on Saturday.

And I looked at her and I said, honey, your time's done. I'll see you in January because I think she wasn't accounting for week zero. She had week one all circled up as like the final, you know, or the day that it all returns. But we have some Bill Belichick to watch on. Saturday at noon. So I'm looking forward to it and it feels like we're here. TCU, North Carolina. This game is in Dublin. TCU on Polymarket, a seven and a half point favorite. So basically the way the polymarket markets work is with the point spread, where the market settles at 50-50 is where the point spread is going to be. And it's settled.

at 50-50 about seven and a half points. If we were looking at who's just going to win straight up, three quarters of the people on Polly Market believe TCU's going to win this game. And so they are the overwhelming favorites here, more than a touchdown favorite. We watched this game last year. This was the Labor Day Monday night game last year. Remember they had, it was in Chapel Hill. All the celebrities came out.

Michael Jordan was there. Lawrence Taylor was there. and they were all gone by the end of the second quarter. Can I, before we get into the actual point spread and picking the games, and let me just go on record here, Andy, and say to the listeners who were around last year, I am committed to a better performance this year. Last year was not like me. I am not committed to a better performance because I was well over 500.

Yeah. My hope is that you'll have a little bit of a regression because two years in a row of well above 500 is pretty good, sharp behavior on your part. and I don't know that you're one of those. But before we get into the point spread, though, can we talk about this amazing thing from Polly Market that you mentioned at the beginning? Yes.

One out of every four people thinks North Carolina is going to win the game. That's a lot of people. It's more people than I thought. Yeah. So I guess the main question here is we can get into the personnel breakdown, right? We can get into a lot of the things that we litigated over the summertime, which was, you know, we're not 100% sure that North Carolina, recruited the caliber of athlete to be good enough to, you know,

get to the expectations that existed when Bill Belichick was hired. But is there a, I don't know, let's call it a 25% chance just for the hell of it. What do you think? A 25% chance that because Bill Belichick's first season at North Carolina was so bad, and because they didn't make a big enough splash in the off season this year, that we collectively, as a college football community, are now in turn sorely undervaluing the year two Belichick factor. Yes.

That's a possibility, as you put on your tinfoil hat. Yeah. It's a possibility, but the evidence seems to work against that. Because if you look at what they took out of the transfer portal, you know, Billy Edwards Jr. is the highlight. That's their quarterback. We saw him play well at Maryland two years ago. He was hurt at Wisconsin last year.

so we didn't really get a chance to see what he could do at Wisconsin. That is the, like if we go down the depth chart and go through the various positions, they were not beating out the teams that we would consider their peers for players. Can I be, and I think that's the part that scares you.

I'm going to be honest with you. I know that there are times where I look really stupid on the show, and I think that's part of my charm. I do, though, believe that I think I have quite a bit of football knowledge. At least when it comes to personnel and how things work and all these things, we talk about it and think about it 60 hours a week during the fall.

There are a lot of people in this too deep I've ever heard of before, Andy. And I don't know where you are. Are you familiar with everyone that's starting for this team? And we would be lying to you if we said that for a lot of the teams in college football because there's been a lot of turnover everywhere. But I'm looking here, and I'm not even, I mean, I guess like the only thing that we would always know is the quarterback. And we saw some good things from Billy Edwards before he got hurt at Wisconsin last year earlier in his career. And Maryland before he transferred.

Yeah. But if he is really good, maybe. But the thing that I find really fascinating about Belichick was that last year when we came into the season, we all. also kind of felt the same way from personnel standpoint about their roster. Now, it wasn't as made fun of because it was year one and he was adjusting to college and, you know, all the different things that go into, you know, being a first year coach, although he did get hired if I recall correctly in time to make a difference in the portal. He didn't, but we still suspended belief because of the Belichick factor of like, well,

maybe he's just a genius and we aren't catching on to what he's doing. Let's see it. And then I remember the first drive of the TCU game last year and they went down field and scored and it was like the you know he wasn't smiling and then we were everyone who was laughing about it on Twitter then they went on to lose by like 50 48 to 14 yeah sorry what's that 34 um it's a lot yeah handy no benefit of the doubt for bellichick genius did that run out or is there even 5% of you that wants to be like okay I don't know who these guys are but he is one of the best coaches of all time maybe maybe they'll have something this year you can be the biggest genius in

the world if you don't have the talent you're not going to win many games that's that's the i mean evaluation genius maybe he has talent that we're unaware of by the way tc u we talked about there being a ton of turnover it's not one of those teams that's had a ton of turnover like they they brought in guys or they basically were elevating guys who were on their team last year to starting roles to fill the holes, with one very notable exception in Jaden Craig, who comes from Harvard to replace Josh Hoover quarterback. Remember Josh Hoover's off to Indiana, Jaden Craig, who basically was deciding whether he was going to enter the draft or the portal.

He chose the portal and very quickly settled on TCU. We've had him on the show. He said TCU was the first place he went and he realized, hey, this is where I want to be. So, and five different people lock him down. five different people at the college football personnel symposium in Nashville a few weeks ago approached me and we were talking about, you know, guys who might be undervalued or not talked about a lot right now. Five different people brought up voluntarily Jaden Craig's traits. Call him an NFL player.

So, you know, we know that when he was on our show earlier in the off season, there was some thought about potentially going to the league. I think that there is some thought that he would have made a roster somewhere. if he is like the thing that's like really difficult is that Josh Hoover now is as a you know being in Kurt Signetti's atmosphere has absorbed a lot of you know built in credit of being awesome already but is it possible for what TCU needs that both Josh Hoover and Jaden Craig will be better off like I think that there is a chance that Jaden Craig could be very special well let's not forget that TCU also changed offensive coordinators yeah

Kendall Bryles goes to South Carolina. TCU hires UConn's offensive coordinator, and their offense is going to look different. So I think that's also another piece of this. Yeah.

All right, so let's get into the game. You want to get into the game? Well, remember, so the Gordon Sammy's offense will look different. Also, to point out, Jacob Fields was supposed to replace Bud Clark at safety at TCU. He got dismissed from the team during training camp for an incident in the locker room.

And so that is something that you probably should consider because that was, he was going to be a pretty key replacement. He's a Louisiana Tech transfer who was supposed to replace the guy who was the best guy in their secondary last year. That might come into play this season. I don't know if that's going to come into play Saturday. Yeah, that's the question is, because, if it is the same talent differential that we saw in Chapel Hill last year, I think the result will be fairly similar. We visited with Sonny Dykes at Big 12 Media Day, and I got the sense from him that last year

was not good enough for TCU and that he expects to be much better. I think that you could even hear in the undertones of his voice about how he was displeased with the run game, how he was displeased with the turnover situation. You know, obviously his actions speak louder than his words. He went out and replaced the offensive coordinator. TCU was a solid team last year, but he thought that they could have been and should have been much better.

And I think they've attacked those weaknesses this offseason in order to improve it. So my question to you is frankly put, do you think that North Carolina improved that much more than TCU probably did to stay within 30 points of this game? I mean, I'm not going to say 30 points. I'm not going to predict a blowout like that.

No, you only use 30 because of last year. So if TCU got better from last year, how much better to North Carolina have to keep this number 14? And we don't know if TCU is better for last year. But I think we can reasonably assume TCU will be comparable to last year. I also think that Sonny Dykes probably deserves more cash a more benefit of the doubt that his team is better than Bill Belichick should at this level. I mean, like, you know, we're not that far. It's not a slight on Bill Belmont.

He's got one year of college experience. Yeah. I also think that he didn't show that he knew what was going on in college. And he just up and forgot that like Sonny Dikes took TCU to the national championship game, what, four years ago? Like, I mean, it's, it's not like the guy doesn't know how to coach. So, like, I, I'm giving TCU the benefit of the doubt that I think that they're going to be better this year. Now, that could end up being wrong. But as I sit here as we record this on Tuesday, August 25th, four or five days before they play,

my expectation for TCU is that they'll be improved from last year. So in order for North Carolina to keep this game, in my opinion, to 14 or 10 points, they will have to have had improved much more than TCU did, right? Is that basic logic? So I don't know if I see it, Andy. Now, maybe we'll be watching the game on Saturday? I don't have a problem based on that logic, picking TCU to cover seven and a half.

That's where I am at. Yeah. Now, if North Carolina loses by four or hold your breath, wins the game, we have 45 minutes to dissect what that looks like on Saturday. Oh, yeah. We're going to have a hell of a live Saturday show if that happens. I don't know.

I'm always a go with the evidence, go with the information at hand, make the most educated guess that you could make and see how the chips fall. Obviously, that route has caused me to be wrong a lot of my life because unforeseen things and crazy things happen in sports all the time. But in terms of like the evidentiary basis of this game, what would the case be for North Carolina cover? The case would be that they found some guys that we didn't know about that are much better than we thought.

Like Peyton Sealman, the linebacker from Richmond, they're very excited about him. Well, that sounds like they got him. They didn't take him away from a comparable program to them. They took him away from an FCS school, but they're excited about him. So maybe they did that a bunch of things. of times. That sounds like a word. That sounds like a word. I don't want to say word salad because

that's the meaning to you and I don't mean to be, but it seems like a longer synonym for it's not a salad. It's just it's just saying it's a long shot. The odds of that are very small. What you just said though, what you just said to me and Belichick magic are the same thing. So if you want to reserve yourself for five, five percent Belichick magic, I'm okay with that because he's Bill Belichick. And I think magic's the right word. Yeah. It's because there's nothing in the realm of this is how you build a college football program to win in the ACC. There's nothing about that that they followed.

And their GMs on leave right now. And one last thing. Maybe this is a stupid question, but I want to ask it because Kurt Signetti just did something that broke everyone's brain. But when you see coaches veer off. from the traditional manner in which people do things. And maybe Indiana didn't veer off at all. They were just better at it. Like I think of guys like Herm Edwards at ASU,

you know, like people that came in are like, we're going to do things differently. How many people have veered off from the traditional roster building or the traditional way of doing things in the off season and shocked the world in the fall and been like, holy crap, that guy's a genius.

I even think for a certain standpoint, and the thing is, he didn't do that either. Yeah, he just did it better. He did the right way better. But Davosweeney was also like that. At this time last year, we thought, okay, everybody's zigging, he's zagging. He's won two national championships.

And I think there's a part of him that was even right because they had all these draft picks, but it didn't work. How many people came up with like a plan that was different from the right way to do it, veered off into left field during the off season and returned in the fall to be ass kickers? You just don't see that happen very often. So like if Bill Belichick does that, kudos to you for being. one of the greatest coaches of all time, but I'm not holding my breath if that's a reality.

Well, and the other thing is, you mentioned that Clemson team. Well, North Carolina played that Clemson team. Mm-hmm. Got destroyed. Absolutely destroyed, because the talent gap was so wide. Yeah, like, I just,

I feel like North Carolina playing in Ireland and losing by 10 would be an improvement for them. It would. So, like, it absolutely would. And the thing is, like, hey, if they win, North Carolina fans who've yelled at me all offseason, like, hey, he needs time. You guys are so negative.

Okay, fine. Have you gotten a lot of that? I've gotten zero of that. No, there is a small subject. I'd say the majority of the North Carolina fan base is kind of out on this, would like this experiment to end. But obviously, they want their team to win. But there's a group that's still holding on hope that this was a good idea.

And so you're going to need some magic. That's a good. That's a good column. What's how different are Florida State, North Carolina fans this season? I don't think they're that different. They want their team to win, but they'd like something different. Yeah. But you're not getting anything different right now.

At least I don't think you are. TCU by seven and a half. First pick, first agreement. We're three out together as a tandem this year. I don't know if you know that. Oh, how about that? We are three and oh. Do the quarterback picks count?

Yeah, that's right. Yeah, our quarterback picks hit. Now, they didn't have a point spread on them. So those are straight up. But yeah, we'll try. I think we're either going to be 1-0 or 0-1-1 against the spread when that game ends. But you'll see us live on your YouTube's right after that game. The best thing, too, about using Polly Market is that the percentages of who thinks people are going to win are easier to follow than just traditional odds.

So, like, I think it'll be cool to, like, look at what the point spreads are and where those settle naturally on Polly Market and then also see what percentage of people do you think they're going to win a game? Like, I think it's easier to present. And I'm excited about it. I think those two pieces of data are different but useful in various ways. So, yeah, can't wait. We come back. We stay in the ACC, but first, these words from Brunt Workwear. Ari, when I am slogging through the mud and this time of you're in Florida, there's actually

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go to runworkworkware.com, use the code on three and get $10 off. Ari, it is time to pick a game that was supposed to be played in Brazil, but they couldn't sell enough tickets. So now they're in Charlottesville, which I'm sure everybody's probably happier with. NC State at Virginia. Very fun game. NC State got Virginia early last year in that weird, this is not a conference game, but it is a conference game situation.

Now the Wolfpack retooled. They kept CJ Bailey, but they lose Hollywood Smothers. They lose Torell Anderson. They lose Jacarius Peak. Virginia. They lose Chandler Morris. They lose Trell Harris. but they have retooled as well

and have a pretty sturdy offensive line where they brought three guys back and then the other two guys were supposed to start for them last year but then got hurt. This is going to be a fascinating game. NC State, we had Dave Doran on not long ago.

C.J. Bailey, I think, had a little hand in how they reloaded after what they lost in Transfer Portal where a lot of his best friends from high school coming to join the Wolfpack like Jojo Trader, the Miami transfer receiver.

Like this is going to be a team that knows itself and knows each other pretty well, even though you had to change a lot. Andy, can we start this segment off with a trivia question? Yes. When is the last time the University of Virginia sold out a home football game? Oh, my.

Okay. was the Florida State game last year? That was a pretty big deal. September 13th, 2008. Are you kidding me? Holy cow. So the reason why I ask you this is, do you think that if you were to schedule a game

that is supposed to go overseas that you have to be able to sell all the tickets to your games in your own stadium first? Like, should that be a prereq? Probably. I think that makes a lot of sense. Because you have to... NC State, they do very well.

Yeah, they have a great... crowded in NC State. Like, they're very loud, lively. But yeah, I think that probably is something you should think about before you decided to go overseas. Okay. So Virginia lost a lot of players from last year. Now, they've got Bo for Bula.

Now, they were very good last year. Tony Elliott did an amazing job. Are we sure they should be laying five and a half here? We're not sure of anything right now. And this is, so this is not as easy to predict. Well, look, I don't, I'm not. not sure TCU, North Carolina is easy to predict. We assume it to be easy to predict.

Which often means it's not, yeah, by the way. When you think that you get lulled into this false sense of security about feeling like you have a grasp on something, and then you watch the game on Saturday, which is why I love the sport so much. You're like, what the hell is this? So, you know, you're right. Yeah, this one, this one's much tougher. One, NC State has a quarterback that everybody wanted. They managed to keep C.J. Bailey.

I think there was a lot of interest in C.J. Bailey, potentially going to another team, particularly the one in his hometown of Miami. But he ends up staying at NC State. And look, to keep him probably meant they knew they had to lose some people. It wasn't going to be possible to keep Jacarius Peak, to keep Terrell Anderson, to keep Hollywood smothers. But they did, like they went out and got Jamerian McCrimeon, who was the all-conference left tackle. of East Carolina. So he replaces Jacarius Peak,

who went to South Carolina. So the question is, how well did Dave Doran do in replacing people? Yeah. And, you know, we'll see. Oh, boy.

So, this one's pretty tough, Andy. Well, and let's, this is Polly Market where we can, we have a couple pieces of data here. So, yeah, show me. The line settled at five and a half,

Virginia by five and a half. if we're just going straight up, two-thirds of the market believes Virginia's going to win this game, straight up. So it's a two-thirds, one-third thing, which probably is about right

for a five and a half point spread. Do you want to have, yeah, I mean, it's probably about right. Can we have the Bo Probula conversation? Let's have it. Is he good?

Not sure. Missouri seemed pretty quick to pivot to Austin Simmons. Well, there also was the two-and-a-half week, three-week, Beau Probula mania last year. You remember that, right?

I remember it. Then he got hurt. Then he got hurt. In the Vandy game, he came back, played later, but. No, but like for a minute there, like everybody was on board here. But I think that it's very interesting in a world where rosters are completely different. Virginia lost a lot of its offensive pieces. They bring in Bo Probula, but the team that has been more consistent in terms of being a viable product that has the

better quarterback is not favored to win the game. Yes. Yes. And that's the interesting thing is NC State year to year under Dave Doran, who is the second longest tenured coach in the ACC behind Abbasweeney. Like year to year, they've been more consistent than Virginia by far. So how do we judge that? Because Virginia was one of the best teams in the league.

They made the ACC championship game last year. They were great and tight games. Also, it's. If Virginia is close to or resembles what it looked like last year, is Tony Elliott hired away this offseason? Oh, if they do it again? He would do a very hot candidate, for sure. So, you know, I'm on high alert for this,

but, you know, I think that obviously I have a terrible track record of picking these games correctly, but the hardest weeks to do it are the first few because you don't quite know who they are. We haven't seen either of these two teams play yet, but my gut instinct, Andy, when presented with the numbers here, would be to take NC states. The other hard part about this is like that Virginia team that was really good,

lost to NC State last year. Yeah. So that was, that's where my guts leaning. I don't know where you are. Yeah, it's, it's tough because I,

we're going to, we're going to be hilariously wrong on some of these early season picks. Like, if we go, I'm going to cover last year, I think. I guess four state. Exactly.

Yeah. Exactly. And I think. think if we look at these, like the week one games, we talk about how bad the schedule is. There are going to be some results that just completely blow our minds. Because somebody's going to lose a game. It's like a snake shedding its skin the first month of the season. And all of our perceptions turn into, you know, new realities.

And I kind of feel like it's going to take a new form. There will be cool new teams at the beginning that, you know, get out to a great start and you get really excited about. And there will be teams that have been hyped up all off season that seem to be missing something. And we don't know who is going to be. And I don't think NC State or Virginia were really, part of the options. I don't want to overthink this because I do

like it when I'm fairly certain a team has a good offensive line. And I'm fairly certain I like the coach that I think they got a competent quarterback even though he might not be the better quarterback in this matchup. So that's my problem because

everything you say about why you should take NC State and take those points makes sense to me. But I'll also. wonder if I'm just overthinking it. I mean, it's the first pick of the season. We should go opposite directions, right?

You're going to take the Wolfpack? Yeah, that's, I mean, that's what my gut told me from the second I saw this. Give me the who's. Let's do it. Let's see, let's see if they are as consistent as they were last season. Well, except for when they played in C-State. But, yeah, this is a team. And I point out, they won a lot of games living dangerously.

last year. Florida State was a double OT game. Louisville was an OT game. North Carolina was an OT game that they won by one point. Wake Forest, they lost in a one possession game. Like, they played a lot of tight games last year. So the fact of the matter is this also could be a close Virginia win, because Virginia is still good at win in close games, but then NC State coverage.

So, yeah, I'm still going to take it. Give the sellout. Did they sell this game out? No, I was just making a point about why they weren't able to sell tickets in Brazil. This is not the first sell out since. This is, they just still struggling. I was just like making a comment. It's like they couldn't sell tickets in Brazil.

Well, they're not selling out their home stadium. So why would people be flying to Brazil for it? I got you. Yeah, I got you. Yeah, I'm still going to take Virginia. And I'm excited about this game because this is one of those that they've not tried to do the Brazil thing. We wouldn't be getting this in week zero. will be getting us later.

And I think this adds to our Week Zero menu very well. There's a few more games that we're going to talk about this week as we get closer to games. But Florida State opens their season against New Mexico State. USC opens their season against San Jose State. UNLevel in Memphis could be a very fun game. And we had a really, really good time watching Hawaii Stanford last year on Week Zero. And so maybe they will entertain us as much as they did this time. last year. And next, and next week's pick show will be more robust when we have a full slate.

So yes, we'll do a full, like seven, what do we do? Like seven to ten last year, nine ish game? I think it was eightish and it just depended on the week. Some weeks we had to do more because there were just too many compelling games. Yeah. Next week's going to be interesting because obviously we're going to do LSU Clemson. Obviously, we're going to do Louisville, Ole Miss. We're going to do Notre Dame, Wisconsin, even though we, I mean, we think we know the straight-up winner of that for sure.

But I don't know that there's a lot of games that are obvious. I'm interested to see the spreads. And Holly Mark has got a few of those week-one spreads already out next week, too. It doesn't have to be nine next week either. Yeah. And I assume UCLA is a fascinating one. Yeah. You know, we'll fill it out.

But I do think, too, that we'll also resume our written companion. into on On3.com, which I think is a good reminder for people to sign up for On3 if they haven't done that already. Andy, what's the code? You know the code, right? The code for... 1999, the first year. Let me pull it up for you guys.

Oh, yeah. No, no. It's On3.com slash join. Yeah. So, no code. But do it because you get me, you get Andy, you get Pete Nacos, you get Brett McMurphy, you get Chris Lowe, you get so much, you get access to the team coverage. one of the, not one of the, the best, you know,

resource and destination for college football news and basketball. You access to the message boards, which is a lot of fun. So, now, you can cut a promo better than me, but I mean that. I think it's one of the best, you know, places to be if you're a college football fan online. Producer River, by the way, is just peppering us with week one games. And there's more interesting week one games than I was giving, giving the week credit for. I mean, I'm really, really pumped up. Baylor Auburn.

Baylor Auburn. That's going to be a good one. SMU, Florida State. We also can talk about feelings with some of these picks Cal UCLA, which, by the way, Cal UCLA might be sneaky great because those are two teams that are used to talk horses in their conference races.

So, you know, getting to see them play for the first time. The UCLA in the big 10. Talking to few people that think that UCLA is going to shock some people this year, man. Yeah, they play in the same conferences at Oregon and Ohio State. They sure do, but that's what that's what the word shocking means oh i'd be shocked listen we live in a world where indiana is a defending national champion i should not be shocked

by anything and yet i still am we will talk to you tomorrow where we are joined by our new partner at on three the film guy brooks austin breaking down arch manning bryce underwood and keelan russell it's going to be so much fun we'll talk to you tomorrow