Andy & Ari On3 - The College Football league almost ANYONE could WIN | The ceilings and floors of the Big 12 for 2024

Episode Date: June 3, 2024

The Big 12 is a league that feels like anyone could win, and Ari Temkin from Big 12 Radio on Sirius XM joins us to preview each and every team of the league. We take a DEEP DIVE into the Big 12 here(0:00-2:01) Intro(2:02-8:30) Ari Temkin Joins(8:31-15:57) Arizona Wildcats(15:58-22:23) Arizona State Sun Devils(22:24-29:08) Baylor Bears(29:09-34:01) Cincinnati Bearcats(34:02-40:14) BYU Cougars(40:15-49:31) Colorado Buffaloes (49:32-52:51) Houston Cougars(52:52-56:43) Iowa State Cyclones(56:44-1:03:34) Kansas Jayhawks(1:03:35-1:08:10) Kansas State Wildcats(1:08:11-1:11:49) Oklahoma State Cowboys(1:11:50-1:15:27) TCU Horned Frogs(1:15:28-1:20:55) Texas Tech Red Raiders(1:20:56-1:25:35) UCF Knights(1:25:36-1:28:46) Utah Utes(1:28:47-1:32:38) West Virginia Mountaineers(1:32:39-1:25:04) Top 3 Big 12 Games(1:25:05-1:35:40) Wrapping UpWant to watch the show instead? Join us LIVE, M-F, at 8 am et! https://www.youtube.com/@On3sportsHost: Andy StaplesGuest: Ari TemkinProducer: River Bailey

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. Happy Monday. We got to talk some ceilings and floors. We've done three of the four power conferences, but I've saved this one for last because I think it could be the most interesting. And in this little exercise where we pick what we think is the ceiling for a team, the best it can be, and the floor for a team, the worst it can possibly be, this is the hardest one to do. This is the one where the spreads are going to be the biggest because the competition in this league is so even. And, of course, I'm talking about the new Big 12. Last year, they welcomed BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. This year, they say goodbye to Texas and Oklahoma,

but welcome Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado. That's right. Coach Prime is in this league. And everybody thinks they can win it. Because guess what? Everybody probably can win it. This is going to be the most evenly matched league in the country. There's only a few teams that we're just counting out from the outset.

And to be perfectly honest, maybe we shouldn't be counting anybody out. Because this is a league that will be very hotly contested probably until the last week of the season as the teams try to get into the championship game. There will be teams probably, I would say, 6-7 deep as October moves to November that have a real chance of winning the conference title, which means a real chance of making the college football playoff, which means probably a real chance at having a top four seed in the college football playoff. The other question, and I'll pose that to our guest as we start, is whether another team or teams will wind up in the college football playoff. And for that, we're joined now by Ari

Tempkin from Big 12 Radio Series XM Ari one of the few personalities on the original Big 12 Radio lineup that wasn't from Texas or Oklahoma that's right oh you do live in Texas can you uh you might put that graphic back up try to take notes and who the new teams of the conference are it's hard to keep track oh okay yeah Arizona State's the Big 12 no that's awesome yeah Utah's in thereston's in there no i'm good man how are you it's funny trying to get used to byu i i'm telling you we're this exercise whether you're in college sports in the media or not is going to be hilarious over the next decade or even if it is that long in terms of before we get club-sitted florida state north carolina leave the acc who

knows but theoretically the next decade, we're going to try to figure out who's in what conference. That's what we're gonna do. Even the most, like even the most staunch among us, even you Andy, who's been covering this board as long as I can remember. I'm sure you're going to be like, wait, oh yeah. SMU is in the ACC now. That's right.

Did you catch me when I was talking about the new teams just now? And there was that dramatic pause before Colorado I'm gonna I'm gonna say that it was because I was doing the drum roll please to get to coach prime if we're being totally honest it's like wait what's the fourth new one what's the other one that came from the back 12 that was originally in the big 12 is colorado i cover the conference and i'm still it's like wait oh yeah colorado utah arizona arizona state it's good i have like friends in dallas where i live that went to texas that went to ou that went to texas tech with the baylor you know they're huge huge college football fans and

it's a great exercise for me because it's like yeah who they're like who's the conference now i'm constantly have to remind them and then when doing that I'm taking stock of my own head so it is it's gonna be hard to figure out who's the league because it's a league of parody Eddie to your point yes and I will say the thing that's helped me the most when we've done the the SEC and the ACC and the Big Ten so far is diving into these schedules because one thing you really learn and we kind of learned it with the big 10 last year, but the big 10 fans of, of your Kansas is in your Baylor's and your Texas text were spoiled for so

long with the big 10 being a 10 team league that played a nine game schedule. Like the, the full round Robin is the perfect way to handle this. Yeah. But of course, good things can never last. And so, you know know they add the teams last year and they played with a bigger league and they played you know with a 14 team lead last year

and you found out all schedules are not created equal and that is the same thing this year you're seeing it you know the SEC and the Big Ten ased their divisions, the ACC already ditched its divisions, but now they add even more teams. We've seen some teams that, like, poor Purdue. Whatever Purdue did to piss off the Big Ten office, it must have been bad. Tennessee and Missouri, meanwhile, and the SEC and Ole Miss, they got about as good of a draw as you can get and Florida and Georgia and and Oklahoma are like what are you kidding me yeah yeah I mean it's you're right Eddie I think so much of this offseason talk has to be

viewed through the lens of scheduling matters so much and how we talk about these teams and how good they could be because we're we're used to it especially to your point of the big 12 like oh yeah it's not around robin like we do have to pay attention now to who these teams are playing because that matters and and in a league of parody we could sit here and go through schedules it's it's to a degree and it always is a fool's errand but i would say even more so now because it's been a league of parity it will continue to be a league of parity even with oklahoma and texas last few years it's been a league of parity i mean oklahoma hasn't won this league since 2019 you think about how much they will never win it again

right they'll never win it again so you know we've all we've looked at this conference through the lens of the big 12 through oklahoma and tex the big difference now. It's not, okay, how do these, you know, where's Oklahoma, Texas on their schedule? Yeah. How do they fare relative to Oklahoma, Texas? You know, now it's like a free for all. And so I think, you know, that's what makes the league fun. But then also, um, I think that's what makes this league so intriguing is when do you play teams? Where do you play them? That plays such a huge factor in what we're about to do today. The where do you play them of it all is very interesting to me with some of these teams, because I do think having to play Texas Tech in Lubbock is very different than getting Texas Tech

at your place. Going to Morgantown, different than getting West Virginia at your place, going to Ames. I think people are going to find out going to Orlando is not a place you want to go, but if you get UCF on the road, it's maybe a little bit different. So that is a very key part of this. And it's interesting because in our notes, the pre-show notes that I made, I put toughest games and basically everybody who had to play at Texas Tech, I included as one of their toughest games. I didn't necessarily include Texas Tech coming to them as one of their toughest games. So every Utah game, I put on there.

Every Kansas State game, I put on there. But it does matter very much where you play in this league. Yeah. And then I also think it matters when you play teams and that's, that's the hardest thing to predict. You look at the big 12 and I mean, I think you could count on one hand, maybe even with one finger, how many teams in the big 12 last year, I'm trying to remember did not have to start multiple quarterbacks during the season. So, you know know when you get teams matters a

ton you know if you played texas last year with quinn yours you played texas last year with malik murphy you played two totally different texas teams so um that plays a huge role in this too and that's that's the unforeseen part of injuries that play a huge factor in this but we we've known that texas tech hasn't had a starting quarterback start every game for them in the in one season since pat Mahomes did it. So they've been trying to do that for a long time now. So there's kind of some things you could probably look at. Like Jalen Daniels has been healthy at his time at Kansas,

even though that's my – I'm an alum. And no Jason Bean anymore. We'll get to that too. Right. So, like, if you're looking at it, like, if he's healthy, I've heard everybody say that. Well, there's nothing that we can look at that says he's going to be healthy this year.

All the evidence we have says he's not going to be available for the entire season. So that's kind of what you have to go off of. So when you play teams matters too. All right, let's do it. Let's do ceilings and floors for all of these teams. Unlike the other ones where we kind of bounced around. With the Big 12, I feel like, again, it's a very evenly matched league. We're going in alphabetical order, and we will start with one of the newcomers,

the Arizona Wildcats. We last saw them beating Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. All signs were pointing up, and then Jed Fish gets hired away by Washington after Kalen DeBoer left Washington for Alabama. But what we thought would happen after that did not happen because when Jed Fish left for Washington, my assumption was a good chunk of this roster was going to Seattle. That did not happen. Noah Fafita, the quarterback who took over last year for Jaden Delora, that was probably the biggest thing that shifted for them, that got them hot, that turned them into

the hottest team in the country. But Noah Fafita, and then you got Tedaro McMillan, who is maybe the best receiver in the country. We'll see. I mean, Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State, everybody's excited about as a freshman, but T-Mac is one of the best players in the country. He stayed.

Takario Davis, the cornerback, stayed. a lot of those guys who came in in 2022 in that first full cycle high school class that Jed Fish signed decided to stay together in Tucson and Ari I think they bring back with Brent Brennan taking over a team that can very much win the big 12 and I mean the fact that they did that and the names you just mentioned andy is shocking in this day and age in college football um and i think what's what helped arizona was number one for fita you know obviously staying and then you know mcmillan what he did was he just kind of hung around like all right let's see what these new guys are all about and obviously he was, you know,

very attracted to what they were doing. And so he decided to stay. So I think, you know, for feet of staying played a crucial role in this without the quarterback McMillan's gone. And it doesn't matter how McMillan views the quarter, you know, the, the future, the coaching quarterback position. And then I think because McMillan and Fafita stayed, that created a domino effect on defense with some of those guys staying. so i you know coming into the league i think there's about as much excitement around arizona as there is anybody else but i here's my question to you andy can they play big 12 style football because the evolution of the big 12 now with spread offense that throw the ball a ton iowa state then john haycock they run, three, five, which is now all over college football.

The rush three drop eight. Now you look at the big 12. It's one of the best rushing conferences in college football, because if you're rushing three, what are you going to do? You're going to constantly run on those teams to force, you know, to force them to play more evenly. So a lot of big 12 teams have done that. Arizona is not built like that. You know, they lost Jordan Morgan along their offensive line. I have major question marks about the offensive line coming back

and the running game situation. We know they have one of the most potent passing offenses in college football. They've got, as you mentioned, arguably the best wide receiver in college football and certainly one of the best quarterbacks in this conference. And arguably we'll see what he can do this year. One of the best in college football, but it's the offensive line and the running backs, the personnel that I'm a little concerned about. If Utah is built to play Big 12 style, quote unquote, which is power football now. I wonder if Arizona, like there's some teams,

Iowa State will rush three to death on you and force you to have to run the football if you can't. That's my question with Arizona heading into year one of the Big 12. Yeah, that's going to be a very interesting development and you know maybe having a fresh set of eyes and brent brennan helps with that it's interesting because brent brennan was actually a finalist when jed fish got hired so uh this is one that it feels like as that situation that handoff could have gone it could not have gone any smoother. Like we said, schedules matter. Like we said, where you play teams matter. Arizona's got the toughest two game stretch in league play in the league. Now there's a, there's an open weekend

between these games, but they've got to go to Kansas State and to Utah in consecutive games. We could know by the end of September where Arizona stands in terms of where they fit among the best teams in the conference. Yeah, well said. And certainly we can argue about where teams will be slotted throughout the conference, but Kansas State and Utah, overwhelmingly the two favorites in this league right now, and it's hard to disagree with that. And then not only that, but Kansas state, Utah, you know, overwhelmingly the two favorites in this league right now. And it's hard to disagree with that. I mean, and then not only that, but BYU, I mean,

do you think about Salt Lake and Provo are two of the toughest places to play great environments? And then you also go to UCF. Yeah. And not only, so not only is the bounce house a tough place to play in Orlando, but I mean, think about the trips. It's funny. We've had a lot of West Virginia coaches on whether it be baseball, football, basketball, they're all like, yep, get ready. We've been dealing with this for a long time now. Now the rest of the league is going to see what we've had to go, go East Coast to West Coast.

So yeah, that'll be a tough one too for Arizona to go UCF. They may have the toughest road schedule of any of the quote-unquote contenders based on having to go UCF, BYU, and Utah and K-State. I would agree with that. So my ceiling on this and the way we've been doing ceilings are, is if a team can win its conference, if it can make the playoff in any way, shape, or form, I just say the ceiling is the playoff.

And that could mean winning the league. That could mean going 11-1, losing the championship game, and then still getting it as an at-large. I think that's probably a good basket to put it in. And then if I feel like they can advance, we mentioned that. With the Big 12 teams, like with Arizona, I'm not sure they would advance if they make the playoff. But there's other ones I think that might.

But I'm going to put CFP as their ceiling. they make the playoff but you know there's other ones i think that that might but my i'm gonna put cfp as their ceiling i think they can they can either win this league or be an at-large if all goes right and that's that's really like with the ceiling it's an all goes right situation with the floor it is this is another disaster all has gone wrong like you know a lot of your coin flip games you lost. But I still think this team has such a nice core about it. I'm going to put their floor at 7-5. I think they're going to be a pretty good team no matter what.

I agree with you there. Every fiber in my body wants to say Arizona is set up for a disappointing year this year, given what we talked about in terms of their running game. With that being said, you're totally right about the Brennan transition. If you're going to have to change over offensive coordinator, head coach, you know, this is probably the way to do it with the guy that has that familiarity and a guy that understands that, Hey, I'm not going to switch too many things up. I want to keep a lot of things the same so that I can take advantage of a

feed and McMillan. Those guys are just too talented to think that this team, you know, its floor is anything lower than a bowl game. So I agree with you there. I just don't know that their ceiling is to compete for a big 12 championship. Again, I'm, I'm huge on Fafita and McMillan. I just, I think the offensive line question is losing a guy like Jordan Morgan, how good he's been.

And then the, not only the offensive line, but then the running game. It's not like they had a robust running game last year. And I don't like what they have from a personnel standpoint. I know their passing game is really good. I just think this league forces you to have to run the football, and I question whether or not they can do that. So I'll say Ceilings 8 wins, Flores 5 wins. Interesting. All right.

Let us move to the other end of the Territorial Cup. Let's head to Tempe, Arizona State. Now, everybody talked about the way Colorado revamped their roster when Deion Sanders got the job between 2022 and 2023. Kenny Dillingham had to do basically the same thing at Arizona State. Their turnover was almost as much as Colorado's was or may have been as much as Colorado's was. It's slightly less this year, but Arizona State has still had a lot of turnover in the

transfer portal this year, most notably Jaden Rashada leading after the spring, one of the quarterbacks who probably would have been their starter. Maybe I'm not entirely sure. So they bring in Sam Levitt from Michigan State. He's competing with Trenton Bourget, who was on the roster, who has started games before, actually beat Washington a couple years ago as the starter. This schedule is interesting because, you know,

one thing I've noticed, Ari, and I don't know about you, I don't feel like a lot of the Big 12 teams challenge themselves much at a conference. This one's actually pretty tricky like Wyoming is is no slouch Mississippi State they're going to be pretty talented compared to Arizona State if you're going to bring an SEC team in that's the one you wanted to bring in new coach Jeff Levy like they're they're changing everything at Texas State I don't like this game at all.

No, right. G.J. Kenny did a great job there, got them to a bowl game for the first time, and now they have Jordan McLeod, who was James Madison's quarterback last year, coming in to take over. I don't like that game because this is an Arizona State team that I think is going to struggle anyway. That's not a game you want to play. You know, it's funny. You said that Andy

looking at their schedule, the thing that stands out to me more than anything is the difficulty of their non-conference and it's timing is everything, man. And they pick a bad year to play Texas state at Texas state, just in the same way that like Florida, all these years, you can play UCF like you're, I feel like Florida's picked the wrong year to play UCF too. That is a sneaky underrated non-conference schedule. I mean, think about this. Two Big 12 teams lost in the non-conference last year to Wyoming and Texas State. Baylor lost to their season opener to Texas State at Texas State. And Wyoming beat Texas Tech.

We had G.J. Kinney on after the Baylor game. And he said, look, we looked across the field and thought we were the more talented team. And they were. Yeah. They look like the the big 12 team especially with what Baylor became they were so bad up front of both lines of scrimmage so I agree with you like non-conference is tough it may even be tougher than their their conference slate you know at Kansas State is one that stands out at Oklahoma State is another one that stands out. But beyond that, like, I guess, is Lubbock that difficult of a trip from Tempe, you know, as it would be from Morgantown? So maybe that's not as difficult of a trip in terms of the road trips,

but we always have thought Lubbock is a tough one. The thing for me with Arizona State is it's like, they kind of got screwed at the quarterback position. You know, to your point, Rashada, he certainly would have been competing with Levitt, but there's a much higher ceiling with Rashada. It feels like this is just a quarterback room of retreads. We're looking at here with Borgay, with Jeff Sims coming in from Nebraska.

Yeah, that's right. I should have mentioned Jeff Sims also coming in right in spring. And their draw in terms of who they got, they got all the contenders too. Like they do play Utah. They do contenders too. They do play Utah. They do play Kansas State. They do play at Oklahoma State. They didn't get to miss anybody, unfortunately, either. When you're not going to have that strong of a roster,

that's not the draw you want. Yeah, yeah. This could get pretty ugly for Arizona State. You're one of the Big 12. And genuinely, I think a big reason for that is they didn't anticipate being here at quarterback. I think they figured they'd be better quarterback given the time that they committed to Rashada last year. Yeah, so I'm thinking five and seven ceiling. I'm thinking two and ten floor because that non-conference is tricky.

And I'm not even sure I see five wins on there i i mean yeah i guess that's that's about as good as you can get from a ceiling but i mean i don't even see any gimmies in the non-conference we've talked about it i mean at least i'm playing at wyoming you know but at texas that would be worse like if they go one and two to start i think that'd be a pretty good start for them um so yeah i didn't know we'll throw some names that the folks may have heard of that that could be interesting so malik mclean comes in at receiver uh when dillingham was at florida state malik mclean was a freshman there and i remember malik's first spring there it looked like okay this guy's gonna be a big contributor it didn't work out didn't pan out there he goes

to penn state didn't pan out there which wasn't a dynamic passing game either but kenny seems to see something in Malik McLean and seems to be able to get something out of him. So I'm interested in that. And then Alton McCaskill, who was really good at Houston as a freshman, he got hurt and he's not been the same since. He was at Colorado. He only played in four games last year. I think, you know, I believe he was in their plans, but I don't know how much he was in their plans this year. So we don't know if he's going to ever get back to the form we saw when he first started at Houston. And remember, they still have Cameron Scadaboo at running back.

Yeah, love Scadaboo. One of their highest rated recruits in the 24 class, the freshman running back, Jason Brown. You mentioned Alton McCaskill there's no question that Kenny Dillingham is in you know is getting a lot of talent so I think most people look at Dillingham in a lot of ways they look at McGuire which is this is a guy that's going to be a good head coach they recruited a high level they're bringing in good players they were just waiting for the results to show themselves and I think for McGuire that could

show itself more this year but we'll start to see i think guys emerge um i remember like last year their shabari simmons um who came in from austin p was a stud for them in their defense like i think they're gonna have some guys brian carrington is their their defensive backs coach we know about him and what he's been able to do as a recruiter um so yeah there's a ton of talent being infused they've got a really good class coming in i think a lot of those guys become household names this year. It's just hard for me to think it comes together because I'm just not very confident in Sam Levin. I'm not confident in anybody in that quarterback room. Yeah, and that's the issue.

So it could be a tough year in Tempe. We'll go to Waco. I'll agree with you about 5-2. I don't know if I said that, but yeah, 5-2. Yeah, yeah, 5-7 two and ten for for Arizona State let's head to Waco where you know it's it's interesting when we do these hot seat lists we don't it not a lot of coaches are going to start the season on these lists but Dave Aranda starts squarely on one of these lists they were not good last year they have changed a lot of things around Jeff Grimes, who is now what was their OC.

He's now at Kansas. Jake Spavitol comes in from Cal former Texas A&M OC, West Virginia, OC, Texas state head coach. He's taking over the offense. Gary Patterson hired as a consultant, which is gonna be weird.

Like, is he going to wear green and gold? We're going to see him on the sideline and green and gold. I can't wait until he's in Lubbock working for Joey McGuire next year. He's got to complete this. I mean, he gets a set of steak knives if he hits every one of them. It does. And, you know, Baylor, TCU have a huge rivalry.

Obviously, Baylor or TCU in Texas do too. And Patterson coached at Texas a few years ago. So it's been tough. I think, you know, it's funny, you know, TC,

he's a legend, obviously TCU fans. I think when, when he was let go, it was like, it's probably time, but he's done. Yeah. No favors.

Then Sonny goes to the national title game next year. And you're like, yeah, that was time. And Patterson's resurfacing at Texas and Baylor. It's like, you know, yeah,

it's bizarre. It's very bizarre so Daquan Finn comes in from Toledo they they are calling this a quarterback competition between Daquan Finn and Sawyer Robertson I think it's probably Finn's job and really it just depends on can they get this offense going defensively can they get a pass rush can they generate a pass rush at all because that is not something Baylor could do last year yeah I think you you put this the sack numbers in there right like it was they yeah was it less than a sack a game or like less one and a half sacks a game last year to to compare when they won the big 12 in 2021 it was 3.1 sacks a game I mean they

were so much better at pressuring the quarterback forcing the quarterback to make mistakes they just couldn't do that last year what do you think about dave aranda you know like you look at those numbers and you're like that's a dave aranda coach team so a few things stand out to me about this number one like how much trust and faith you have that dave aranda will get this defense? Because that's where a lot of this falls right now. Because the offensive line and defensive lines last year were a big problem for Baylor. And so it looks to me like they've fixed their offense a little bit. Now, the ceiling on that is what's the question here.

But they brought in the right quarterback and the right system. You've got a spavital offense, the quarterback that can run. Ran for 600 yards and seven touchdowns last year. Was the player of the year in the right system. You've got a Spavadal offense, the quarterback that can run, ran for 600 yards and seven touchdowns last year, was the player of the year in the MAAC. So they brought in the right guy in the right offensive system to marry those two. They also brought in Ashton Hawkins, who's a slot receiver from Texas State,

who had a lot of success under Spavadal, which I think he, in combination with the guys they've had left over from Monterey, Baldwin, Keetron Jackson, I think that's going to be a legit receiving core. They've had left over from um you know monterey baldwin ketron jackson like i think that's going to be a legit receiving core they've had a good running game the issue was the offensive line last year and you know all the indications are the offensive lines approved right because it can't be worse so well and also switching schemes helps too because the offense spavitol runs does not require you to have a particularly dominant offense. It certainly helps if you do, always. But the one Jeff Grimes runs, there's a lot of wide zone runs.

If you do not have an ultra-athletic offensive line, or if they're just not as talented as the players they're playing against, if you're trying to run wide zone, you will be exposed very fast. So the question here is then how improved can their defense be and again you've got gary patterson and dave aranda working on it and dave aranda has taken over as the defensive coordinator this is the whole idea of hey if the ship's going down it's going down with my with my ideas so i me personally i buying it i think you know if there's one thing aranda, it's defensive football. So they have improved their personnel in the offensive line and the defense, but I think it'll be just schematically, there'll be much improved, Andy, to your point.

You know, they've married the schemes on both offensive defense to cater to the players they have. Yeah, so I'm going to put the ceiling at eight and four. If they are dramatically better, now they go to to Utah they go to Lubbock they go to Morgantown but they get they get BYU at Gulf State TCU Kansas at home oh they go to they go to Ames I'm sorry I thought for some reason I was thinking the Iowa State game is at home too but it is that's in Ames they go to Colorado which will be that's one I think probably a lot of people are marking as a win for Colorado. If Baylor's much better, that's probably a toss-up game.

And we won't know really until we see them play a little bit. Now, Baylor, unfortunately, is plunged into the deep end having to go to Salt Lake very early. Well, and that's a non-conference game. That's right. That's right. That was already scheduled. I forgot that. That is why it feels like there are so many big 12 games because there are 10. There are, but that one doesn't count. They should have canceled it.

Like Georgia and Texas canceled the game that they had or Georgia and Oklahoma canceled the game that they had would have been beneficial. I think for both teams, especially Baylor and look, Air Force, like again, you probably not the Air Force right yeah um I I'm with you I I want to say the ceiling should be higher because again I think with Aranda taking over this defense and like I genuinely think he's a really good coach so I don't believe that they like they're gonna he's gonna have a bad year they're gonna fire him so I almost want to say that their ceiling is higher I love Finn I love the addition there he's obviously unproven at this level but i just i just think it's the

right guy in the right spot at the right time so i i think eight nine i mean i think baylor could be a i've got a few surprise you know big 12 title contenders baylor could be one of them and especially given the the their schedule and i think again um we'll get to west virginia later on that baylor at west virginia game at the end of the year could be a big one in terms of the standings so here's the thing though eight nine and i said eight and eight and four you said eight and four nine and three as the ceiling the thing about this situation though is if it goes south it goes south bad so it could be three and nine as the floor we're gonna have a lot of these and yeah

that there's a lot of teams and maybe most specifically the teams that are left in the state of texas in the big 12 all of them have wide spreads like could be 10 win teams could be two win teams baylor was like that last year and obviously we saw pretty early it was going to be a very low you know low ceiling team uh but i'm with you i think this year you know difference could be here or there between two wins and eight wins or nine wins all right let us move on to a team that has been very successful for the much of this century but in its first year in the big 12, it hit a wall, and that's Cincinnati. Luke Fickle had left. Scott Satterfield came from Louisville to take over. The Bearcats bring back Dante Corleone, who may –

is Dante Corleone the best D lineman in the conference? He's one of them. Yeah. For sure. Dominic Williams is out. He transferred out. Yeah, he's got to be up there for sure. So that's the question is, you know, how much do they get better?

Because even though they have Dante Corleone, they were not particularly great on defense last year. They bring in Brandon Sorsby from Indiana to take over quarterback. Xavier Henderson was a leading receiver last year. He was a guy who contributed at Florida and then left before last season to kind of be the guy at Cincinnati. So I am fascinated to see what happens here because I like Satterfield as a coach, but I do wonder if their depth is what it needs to be to be competitive in the league

because you talk to the coaches be competitive in the league because you know you you talk to the coaches who who moved into the league and like i've talked to gus malzahn about this he said it hits you harder than you think and in unexpected ways i just don't know i don't know that they're there yet at cincinnati yeah so cincinnati is really interesting number one emory jones was their quarterback last year and with all due respect to Emery Jones I'm sure he's a good guy you know we kind of have seen what he was already and you know it's not as if we saw something brand new after the season Cincinnati was allergic to the red zone they could not score touchdowns they could move the ball between the

20s but inside the 20 the red zone they terrible. Go back and look at the Oklahoma game. Go back and look at a bunch of games last year. It could not finish drives. Um, so number one, they've improved to the quarterback position. The other thing is they were one of the best running teams, the big 12, despite, you know, how bad they were at times, their entire offensive line is back. Their running game is back. Their entire defensive line is back. And you bet you with one of the best defensive live and in the, in the conference the conference certainly and in the country and the other here's the other thing about Cincinnati that I think not a lot of people talked about so they lose Luke Fickle not only that but over two years they had like 20 players drafted Cincinnati had

20 players drafted over a two-year stretch. Not Georgia, not Alabama, not LSU. Cincinnati is not replenishing that much NFL talent, and certainly not in a short period of time. So the expectation that they'd lose their coach and 20 talented players that would go on to the National Football League, it was kind of absurd. Last year at Big 12 Media Days, Scott Satterfield joked that they had to wear name tags in fall camp

because the roster was all new. Only one returning starter on offense last year so i think like i don't know that we had realistic expectations for cincinnati year one given the context of like this is your two down for satterfield he's still trying to replenish roster to your point that doesn't have much depth because they've been depleted by the nfl draft it's just not something you're used to seeing cincinnati do so it's harder to replenish that talent. I I've got a lot. I like, I've got a higher ceiling for them because I do buy their offensive line. I buy the running game and I buy sores be being a much better combination with that. But the biggest thing for them last

year was turnovers and red zone. They were so bad at red zone. Yeah. No Utah, no Oklahoma state. They do have to play K state. So they, they got a pretty good draw here. I'm going to put their ceiling at seven and five. And I'm gonna put their floor at three and nine. Yeah. The, the, the unknown is Sorsby. Um,

you know, because I said a moment ago, I thought it was an improvement at quarterback. It's like, well, I guess we'll have to see, we'll have to wait and see if it is. Um,

I'm with you. I think seven, eight probably. I mean, I could see them getting eight wins. We'll have to wait and see if it is. I'm with you. I think seven, eight. I mean, I could see them getting eight wins given their schedule. You know, you get some of the toughest opponents they have. I mean, I think the Iowa State, Kansas State games are back-to-back are really tough. And then they lost to Miami of Ohio last year, you know, at home. So let's hope that that goes better for them.

But they did beat Pitt last year, and Towson should be a win for them, obviously, at the FCS level. So, yeah, I think eight wins is a pretty good ceiling for them. And I think they're going to have a lower floor, like a higher floor than maybe a Baylor or some of the other ones we're going to talk about. Yeah, I don't think it goes completely south for them. I know some folks have said, oh, you know, Satterfield's on the same hot seat as it.

I don't think that's true. It's your two. Yeah, yeah they also they had to pay to get him from louisville so it's not yeah it's not necessarily if he's on the hot seat one of those cincinnati ad should be fired because you hired the wrong guy if you're already firing him after two years and especially give it again the edit they lost like 20 players to the draft this is cincinnati we're talking about here yeah so we're a bad at math show we're also a bad at alphabet show I skipped over BYU so let's go back to to the

Colorado another team that in its first year in the big 12 did not perform very well this is interesting because obviously BYU Utah becomes a conference game again for the first time since these two were in the Mountain West together. And remember, BYU went independent. They were involved in a scheme to try to break up the Mountain West, and Craig Thompson, the commissioner, stuffed that in a locker. Utah has kind of taken off.YU has not been the the kind of power that that they had hoped to be and they really ran into a wall last year that they were terrible at times like that West Virginia game was embarrassing uh Jake Ratzliff started the last four games last year now they went 0-4 in those games which you which led them to look for somebody else.

That somebody else is a familiar face to Big 12 fans. Gary Bohannon, welcome back. Once led Baylor to a Big 12 championship, although Blake Chapin played in the championship game. And then Bohannon went to south florida and now he's in provo tampa to provo quite the culture shock yeah well and how about the quarterback you mentioned jake retzloff jewish how about byu having a jewish quarterback it's first time ever which of course harry timpkin what would you know about that like Like I read the story, but I was like, are you kidding me? Of all the places to go?

He went to BYU. And I mean, it's amazing. He even talked about how his Jewish faith is like, is playing a large role, even in these Mormon media, you know, he's going to Mormon church and he's studying. And it's like, even there, he says it's, he's, he's come closer to his Jewish faith. I just like, that's the most amazing sub note about BYU is if Retzlaff starts a quarterback, then he's a Jewish quarterback starting for them, which is insane. And not surprisingly, the first Jewish quarterback to start at BYU.

But he was bad last year in four games. And look, he wasn't ready to play. So he was thrown into a bad situation. Their offensive line struggled despite having Suamante Ia at left tackle. They struggled at times. Kingsley, yep. And I think they were a little bit too obvious in what they were doing offensively.

They couldn't run the football very well. They were, I think, one of the worst teams in the country at running the football. They were just about 100 yards a game. So Retzlaff has to take a huge step because we kind of have already seen the ceiling for Gary Bohannon. Um, so I, Retzeloff has to take a huge step because we kind of have already seen the ceiling for Gary Bohannon. And so like, this is similar to a lot of teams we're gonna be talking about.

Like quarterback is very much unknown. And a lot of times in college we see guys and it's like, yeah, he can't play at this level. Well, the way that he finished the season last year with a couple of almost wins, which aren't wins, but I mean, they should have beaten Oklahoma state. He had a bad interception at the end of oklahoma game but it should have beaten oklahoma state so it kind of felt like they were starting to figure some things out at the end of the season now i'm not a huge believer in carrying momentum over from the end of a season into a new season it doesn't happen

like that but i think retzloff has to take a huge step forward for this team to be you know an eight-win team i'm gonna have a lower ceiling for them because I'm just not a believer in that. Yeah, I think so. Tyler Batty. Probably their best player defensively. They're going to have to get more pressure on the quarterback than they did last year as well. Ben Bywater is back at linebacker. They brought in Jack Kelly. They had some horrific injury luck last year.

Like both of the guys they thought were going to start at safety for them were hurt most of the year. Running back. the guys they thought were going to start at safety for them were hurt most of the year running back so i do think if they're even a little bit luckier there they're better defensively you don't have breakdowns like that so you're still coming over from weber state jack kelly one of his talented linebackers at weber state now transfers over and they had success last year with guys coming in from weber. So I'm buying the defense. And then here's the other thing. TJ Woods was hired as their new offensive line coach, well-traveled well-known old line coach, better on the block. Um, so there are a lot of things pointing to a team being much better. It's just, it's hard though, when you're in the off season, you're going through these kinds of exercises. You have to

go with what, you know, as opposed to like the question marks, because not all the question marks are going to be answered positively or affirmatively. So it's like, what do we know? We don't know much about the quarterback position in terms of having success. That's where I kind of have a pause about, about BYU, but a lot of factors, you mentioned the injury look, I think Jay Hill, another year with him as the DC, you know, what they brought in TJ Woods as a line coach. Will that help improve the online?

Like a lot of things should make this team better. They have most of their weapons back, a lot of things going that way, but we'll see at the quarterback position. That's the biggest factor as we talk about a lot of these teams. Yeah. And K state, Oklahoma state and can,

and Utah and Kansas, like they didn't, they didn't get the easiest draw either. So I'm going to go, I'm going to go seven and five as the ceiling here ari because i think the draw is tough i i think you know the offense needs to get considerably better if the defense gets better it does raise the floor though and that's why so i'm gonna go four and eight is the floor seven and five is is the ceiling. Well, and they're not a conference. They get that pesky Wyoming team again, and they're playing at Wyoming.

So we know how tough it is to play at Wyoming. At SMU, it's not easy either. At SMU, it's not easy. And then, yeah, I mean, at UCF, at Utah, it's tough. Now, that is with a bye in between, so at least there's a little bit of separation there because you're talking about two really tough road games, back-to-back weeks.

Seven sounds like the right number to me, which I think would be a huge improvement There's a little bit of separation there because you're talking about two really tough road games back-to-back weeks. Seven sounds like the right number to me, which I think would be a huge improvement, given that they were not a bowl team last year and have been a bowl team in a few years. So, yeah, I think seven's probably a good number. I want to go higher because I do buy the fact that the quarterback could be better and that that would make this team an eight, nine-win team, but I i guess i have to see it first kind of see it to believe it before you know one step forward for retzloff could be a you know big 12 championship look next year so i'll say seven wins sounds about right mazel tov all right now we get to the one that's going to get everybody yelling at us when we clip this and and it's just this video we're just talking

about this team we're going to make a lot of people mad because the the ceiling when we're optimistic is going to make some people mad and the floor when we're pessimistic is going to make a completely different group of people mad but they're all going to be mad because everybody has a strong opinion about coach prime of course about the colorado buffaloes now maybe the best quarterback in the conference and shador sanders i think the jalen daniels stands and you know they're they're gonna have something to say about that the cam rising stands are gonna have something to say about that but i do think shador sanders is if not the best definitely one of on a very short list of the best.

Travis Hunter is the best player in the conference. I have no qualms about saying that. Yeah. Great corner. Great receiver too. But the question is, are they going to be better on the line of scrimmage? They once again completely retooled the roster through the transfer portal uh believe 41 42 incoming transfer portal players so basically everyone who was a backup got shuttled out and

they brought new people in uh i will say they did not lose a ton of guys that were in their plans like dylan edwards the running back who did wind up at kansas guys that were in their plans, like Dylan Edwards, the running back who did wind up at Kansas State. He was in their plans, but most of the guys that left were not in their plans. So the assumption is that everybody, you know, that Colorado is going to get much better. I don't know that they're going to get much better because I don't know how you build on the line of scrimmage almost exclusively through the transfer portal. Yeah. I mean, the one positional group that isn't entirely reliant upon talent is, you know, offensive line.

You know, I mean, you can, you can get away with having absurd talent most places, but offensive line play is so much more important about continuity. With that being said though, Andy, just on the whole Colorado greater talent than last year's roster, right?

Like a lot more talent than last year's roster, this year's roster. Yeah. I'd say so. Yeah. So they should be improved. Now, we'll take a look at the schedule in a second because the schedule is a whole different animal. They've got a rough non-conference, and they've done no favors for themselves with the non-conference slate. But, yeah, I mean, they had speeds to LeJonte Webster from Florida Atlantic.

From FAU. LeJonte Webster's a very good player. That's a good pickup. Justin Myers, the guard from UTEP, is good. I don't know if he's their best incoming offensive lineman because they got Jordan Seaton, the number one offensive tackle prospect in the country out of high school. But they got Dayon Haynes, the edge rusher from Pitt.

They got Dallin Hayden, the running back from Ohio State. So they did get some good players in the portal. So they have a lot more talent. And the question, though, is their offensive line. Is it going to be good enough in order to keep Shadur healthy and upright, which obviously he wasn't able to do last year. My other thing is their new defensive coordinator is Robert Livingston, who never has called the defense before.

He's been a cornerbacks coach and most recently was in the NFL with the Cincinnati Bengals. So you're now counting on a guy that's never called the defense to sort of save your defense, because it wasn't like their defense was very good last year either. Yeah, and Pat Shermer is running the offense. So remember they panicked in the middle of last season, demoted Sean Lewis, who wound up becoming the head coach at San Diego state. And that's where my concern about the offensive line comes in because you went from an offense,

the reason you hire a Sean Lewis is that offense does not require you to have a dominant offensive line. It's a catch and throw kind of offense. Like Pat Shermer is going to run something a little more NFL ish. And you're going to need to be able to give the QB time to throw. You're going to need to be able to run the ball to establish play action. If you can't, it will be terrible. Like it will not just be bad and should do or getting sacked a lot. It will be non-functional if you can't block. So they have got to be better on the offensive line. Yeah.

So, I mean, just, just throwing it out there, Andy, they've got a defensive coordinator who's never called the defense and offensive coordinator that has been not coordinating any offenses for the last few years i think he was with last of the broncos in 2021 and he was an analyst i think last year for colorado so i mean he hasn't actually called plays since 2021 oh by the way he called him at the end of last year so that's right you're right sorry when that's right so but still i mean you know like how much different how how big of an ego does Pat Sherber have? Because a big part of this is to frig your ego in order to put the right

offense out there that caters to your players. And that's what I wonder. I think some of these guys come in with the NFL credentials and it's like, we're going to run my offense. Cause I've been very successful at the highest level. And, and, you know, so it's like, I mean, the thing is, if you, you've got Shador, you've got Travis Hunter, LeJounte Western, Jimmy Horn Jr. Like you. Right. They've got, you know, so it's like, I mean, the thing is, if you, you've got Shador, you've got Travis Hunter, LeJonte Western, Jimmy Horn Jr.

Like you, right. They've got, you've got weapons. Yeah. Yeah. So that's where it's like, and that's where I get, like, I hear a lot of people, you know, that know what they're talking about. Um, you know, saying that they see Colorado's being a bull team and, and, and, you know, competing for the big 12 championship that I've heard other people that know what they're talking about. Say, no, that they're, that's a bull team and competing for the Big 12 championship. Have you ever heard other people that know what they're talking about say, no, that's a two, three-win team. I get the high ceiling piece because of the talent that they have,

but it's the meat and potatoes part that has you concerned, and that's the offensive and defensive lines. Yeah, I've said I don't know that they're going to be much better than they were last year. Now, what does not much better mean? Not much better could be five and seven could be six and six, but there's also a path with this schedule. Now look, the non-conference North Dakota state is not what North Dakota

state was. If this were a few years ago, I'd be like, this is a game. You got to worry about. I don't worry about this game. Nebraska be very worried about that. Their defense is outstanding. Jeff Sims, who we mentioned earlier, who's transferred to Arizona State, had one of the worst five-minute stretches you'll ever see

at the end of the first half of the Colorado game last year. Nebraska had no chance after that. Colorado just steamrolled them. Don't assume because you steamrolled Nebraska last year that it's going to be easy this year. It will not. And I think they should be better than Colorado State. So at worst, you should be 2-1 coming out of the non-conference,

and then it's just a matter of what you can do in conference. So I'm going to put the floor at 4-8, same as last season. I think they'll be better than that. I just don't know if they'll be a lot better than that. But in terms of what they can be, like if this offensive line turns out to be pretty good, this could be an eight or nine win team. Yeah.

Well, and to your point about the North Dakota State game, I think you're 100% right. The Nebraska game also, this is one of those where it's great on timing. You're playing them in Dylan Raiola's second career collegiate game, as opposed to later on in the season where he's going to be a much better passer you'd imagine at that point in time. I think their floor, I'm buying it.

I think their floor is a bowl game. I genuinely think that. I just think there's too much talent. Oh, wow. The floor is six and six. Very nice. I think the floor is six and six. The reason for that is like Dion needs this.

He needs some proof that this thing is moving in the right direction. And so any, like after winning four games last year, having it be an utter disaster, quote unquote, anything less than six wins to me would be a disappointment. So I think he needs a proof that this thing is working. And I think he gets it this year. There's too much talent like webster and horn and hunter on the outside with shador sanders like that's that's a tough cover in this league and especially given i think we talked about earlier with arizona not people to run the football like colorado can run the ball and should be able to this year with running backs they have yeah i i think a lot of defenses are just gonna to try to get Shador on the ground. Yeah. Because I think if he can throw the ball, Colorado is going to do a lot.

We saw in the TCU game to open the season last year. That's exactly right. All right. So Ari very high on the Buffaloes. Ceiling high. Floor high. Got the bowl game as the floor. The ceiling is the roof.

I'll say their ceiling is the playoff. I'll say their ceiling is the playoff. Wow. You just increased the views on this YouTube video by a whole lot there, Ari. Well, look, I mean, I didn't ask you to do that, but I listen as a businessman. I appreciate it. Well, look, and I'm not, I'm not just saying, I mean, you've got, if you've got the best quarterback in college football, you got a chance. And I think people are forgetting that like she'd do her so good despite the fact that they had no offensive

line play so imagine if they get just like just a little bit just an inch more better offensive line play yeah you know they live in the extremes right colorado lives in the extremes either they're so good or so bad i think if you have a more like nuanced look at them it's like yeah that quarterback situation is really good and so what you're they've raised the floor is what you're saying yes yes all right let us move to the houston cougars they uh change coaches after last year they're very demanding in houston dana holgerson was like there's no way they're going to pay that buyout. They paid that buyout. They bring in Willie Fritz from Tulane,

who is a builder of programs. We've seen it at Tulane, at Georgia Southern. We've seen it going back into the FCS ranks. Can Willie Fritz build here, and how long will that take? Because it feels like he doesn't inherit a roster that is immediately competitive, especially when your non-conference includes UNLV that played for the

Mountain West championship last year and at Oklahoma. Yeah. So I think Willie Fritz is going to be very successful at Houston. I think Houston's got a chance to be one of the premier teams in this conference moving forward. And it's a combination of, you know, the talent pool that you have in Houston. And then also the talent pool in areas that Willie Fritz is very familiar with. Houston's very close to the Texas Louisiana border. Obviously, you know, Fritz has a lot of connections to the state of Louisiana, to New Orleans. So I just think in that hotbed of talent in Texas and in Louisiana, in the Houston area, he's going to pull some pretty big-time players. So I think he's going to be very successful because of his history. You mentioned he's been a coach in Texas and in the state of Louisiana over multiple times in multiple years.

So I'm a big believer in Willie Fritz. The question is, how good are they going to be this year? And that I'm just not sure about. Donovan Smith, you know, he's an experienced starting quarterback, but has just shown off shoulder surgery. And he's just not a very accurate passer. I mean, look at his completion percentage numbers over the course of his career.

Just not high enough. I mean, you're talking about low 60s to be a college quarterback. He just misses too often, too many interceptions. So I don't have a very high ceiling for Houston this year, but I think I have a very high ceiling for Willie Fritz overall. Yes, so we don't need to belabor the point on Houston. The Houston fans don't want to hear this anyway. This could be a tough year, but I'm going to go with a ceiling of of five and seven i'm gonna go with a floor

three and nine i think they're gonna get there under willie fritz but this is like you said this is probably not the year that that happens it starts this year and then they kind of develop into that yeah this is my pre-season six or 16 teams the big 12 it's number 16 team uh in the conference um i don't i mean look at the non-conference you mentioned ulv at oklahoma He's in 16 teams in the Big 12? He's the number 16 team in the conference. I mean, look at the non-conference. You mentioned ULV. At Oklahoma, Rice is in a walkover. They lost to Rice last year.

So I'll say their four is one win. Their ceiling is four. Cold. Cold. See, I put it there at three just because I believe in Willie Fritz. I believe in him as a a motivator and a developer of talent and and so i'm thinking maybe by the end of the season they can they can knock off a couple wins but also when you play kansas utah kansas state in a row that's no fun that's no fun at all and then at a Arizona after a bye. Yeah. I mean,

they've got a lot of tough road games. It's just, I mean, there's, I don't, I don't see many wins in the schedule. I mean, even the rice game,

they lost to rice last year. So yeah. Let's go to aims. Very interesting team. You know, the last season started with, with Matt Campbell getting yelled at, leaving a Mac stadium, and then they're beating Kansas State.

Like, nothing made sense. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that was after, who did they lose to at the non-conference? That was a really bad loss last year. Miami of Ohio, I believe, right? Miami of Ohio? So many of these group of five losses for the Big 12 run together because there were so many of them last year early on in the Big 12 season. But you had a fan basically say that, hey, Matt Campbell's in the hot seat

as he walked by, which, okay. And suddenly now he's a top 25 coach in America, according to most lists we see. This is a year to pick Iowa State state because iowa state tends to be a better team when the expectations are much lower ohio you sorry apologies no i was thinking about cincinnati lost to miami of ohio i'll tell you yes that's what it was like four mac teams there were like four mac teams that beat big 12 teams last year the non-conference so didn't didn't grow great for the big 12 the non-conference but um last year Rocco

backed emerged in a big way the first few games of the season Rocco backed if we remember was thrust into the situation where they Iowa State lost their quarterback from last year because of the gambling situation so they had a bunch of inexperienced guys and JJ called Rocco backed um son of Anthony backed and when you look at how he played the first three four games of the season versus how he ended totally different player uh totally way more free and open and aggressive you know early on he was just not taking shots he was just trying not to mess up but i think with him the emergence of abu sama not only that but their running game is not just going to be like the breeze hall date dave

montgomery show like we're going to see a good stable of running backs this year i have a very high ceiling for Iowa state. They bring back everybody on offense with the exception of their tight end and Easton Dean, but they've got another stud behind them. You know, Jalen Nolan, Jaden Higgins last year emerged at the wide receiver to kind of compliment each other. And, and, oh, by the way, haven't even mentioned yet,

like defensively that they're as good as they've been, you know, with true Jack Sadowski last year was a true freshman linebacker that was an absolute stud. Caleb Bacon is a guy to get to know as he was a walk-on last year who Matt Campbell said he's the most talented linebacker that they've had at Iowa State since Mike Rose was there. So obviously John Haycock is still there as the defensive coordinator. He's one of the most brilliant defensive minds in college football.

Iowa State, to me, their ceiling is a CFP. And don't forget they were bringing in a new offensive coordinator last year. Nate Sheilhas was just starting out as an OC. So I'm with you. Their ceiling is win the Big 12, make it to the CFP. Their floor, I don't think it's very low. I think we're talking about a 7-5 floor for this team. Yeah, I mean, Iowa, obviously that game always stands out.

At Kansas late in the year, at Utah. I think that final stretch is going to be tough, but I'm with you. I just don't see any way in which this team is not a 6-7 win team. I just don't see it. Yeah, this is i i kept saying this at the beginning of the season like matt campbell did not forget how to coach let's not completely because it was a lot of did matt campbell miss his window is he ever gonna you know ascend it like he's still good like you don't win at Iowa state as consistently as he has, if you're not a very good coach. So people should go college football reference.

Just go look at Iowa state's records historically. Oh my God. Yeah. His story, like Matt Campbell versus Iowa state historically. It's not even close. It's a complete blowout. Like Matt Campbell has done an incredible job there.

So speaking of coaches who do incredible jobs relative to their school's recent history, let us talk Lance Leipold in Kansas, because this team, I just, I cannot tell you how amazed I am when I think about Ari that Lance Leipold took over Kansas three years ago on the last day of spring practice yeah like how how has he done this it is nothing short of a miracle um for those that don't know Kansas is my alma mater and so yeah I mean for a decade Kansas was a FCS school playing in the big 12. I mean, and I know that because they were losing consistently to FCS opponents, their most competitive games all year, every year for a decade or against FCS opponents.

So they were for a decade at FCS team playing in the big 12. And so the fact that light bulb came in and turned around as quickly as he did is really nothing short of a miracle. And when you think about like travis goth or athletic director got an extension lately or got extension this week last week i should say um like how quickly they rebuilt the football program they got a stadium that's now being built like i mean think about all these other teams and programs that are going through all this different red tape and issues trying to get a new stadium built and how quickly he's able to get that thing pushed

through um yeah it's incredible how kansas went from being a basketball school with a, you know, with a, with a no, no, non-viable football program to like a legitimate, a legitimately viable athletic department. But now there are some, there are some things to overcome here. And, and I mean, you're talking about long tenured offensive coordinator with Lance Leipold that's gone now.

So major question mark in offense, I think with, with, with, with the new OC. Andy Kotelnicki heads to Penn State. Jeff Grimes, late of Baylor, takes over, but they're going to run Kansas' offense. Now, the two corners they kept, that was one I know they were worried that somebody's going to pick them off in the transfer portal. That did not happen.

Jalen Daniels is one of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football and i will add the the caveat here when healthy the part that makes this interesting is jason bean the backup quarterback who could always come in when jaylen daniels got hurt is not there anymore so does that change things if he gets banged up? Do they become a different team if they don't have the, the stop gap of Jason B? The answer is yes. How could they not? This is one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football.

And being to his credit, did a great job in not giving up too much last year when he came in but it's just even with bean like there was a there was a there's a drop off in talent and then remember being got hurt too so they had to go to their third straight quarterback and a true freshman walk-on named cole ballard who's the son of indianapolis colts gm chris ballard i'll tell you something i'm excited about ballard now he he was thrusted to a really tough spot had to play and start the k-state game and i mean did not play that poorly considering again, walk on as a true freshman. So I do like what they have behind Jalen Daniels, but again, it's not, I mean,

Ballard is not the athletically gifted quarterback that Jason beat is or Jalen Daniels. So this goes back to the, like when you're in the off season, you have like, what do we know versus what, what are the question marks? And so fans will always take the question marks and they're always going to be answered positively. Oh, Daniels will stay healthy this year. You know, all these question marks will be answered positively. You know, as analysts, we have to look at that and say, what do we know? And what are the question marks? And then assume that most of those question marks will not be answered positively. Jalen Daniels is not going to play the entire season. I know that because he's yet to do that.

So that's all the evidence I have says that he's not going to play. Again, it's my alma mater, but I'm just not as high on Kansas as I think a lot of people are because of that. Now, if Daniels plays in every game, totally different animal. And yeah, this team is a viable CFP contender because they're going to be a big 12 title contender with that. I just don't buy that he's going to be healthy for the entire season because he hasn't been. Yeah, I think that's one of the issues. I think that I actually like the non-conference like at Illinois.

I think Kansas can be favored in that game. The UNLV game is going to be played at Sporting KC Stadium. Might be one of the more fun offensive matchups that we're going to see all season. Very excited about that one. Obviously, the Sunflower Showdown is going to be huge, but Kansas does not have to play. Utah does not have to play Oklahoma State.

That's a nice draw. I'm going to go ceiling CFP because I do think, like you said, if Jalen Daniels is healthy, they're a CFP contender because they're a contender for the Big 12 title. They got a great draw. Yes, they have to play Kansas State. They'll have to play them every year. But they get Iowa State in Lawrence.

Well, it wouldn't be Lawrence. They'll get Iowa State at Arrowhead. They get Colorado at Arrowhead. At Baylor, at Arizona State. If you got to go places, that's at Bhead. They get Colorado at Arrowhead. At Baylor, at Arizona State. If you got to go places, that's at BYU. Those are better places to have to go. So, yeah, I'm going to go Big 12 title contender is the ceiling, which means CFP is the ceiling.

The floor? I can't believe I'm saying this about kansas the floor is seven wins yeah yeah the worst is seven wins i i would think lance leipold has done enough in a few years that there's a credibility here that like they're not going to miss a bowl game you know like even if things go horribly wrong and daniels isn't healthy and this that and the other and there's injuries like they're just too good and are too well coached to not get to a bowl game the other part if we could throw the schedule back up there for a second

so iowa state in kansas city if we know one thing about iowa state and kansas city it's that they travel to kansas city in droves the the yeah iowa State basketball fans support at Big 12 tournament in Kansas City is bigger than Kansas's so imagine what a football game in Kansas City between Iowa State and Kansas will be like that is that is going to be a neutral site game so Kansas a lot of these games that we're looking at his home games aren't they're're probably more neutral game. And especially that one. Yeah. That this is going to do them not playing at home. Not that,

not that they had a tremendous home field advantage anyway, if we're being real about this, right. The girl, the girl in the stands isn't knitting anymore, but I'm not sure that everybody's as into it as they are at say LSU. So it's not like they had a massive home field advantage before. But I just, look, it's a new world at Kansas. And you should be, everybody who roots for Kansas

should be very, very excited. But you may not need to be the most excited people in your own state because, let me crank up the bandwagon here so Ari you know this I've been driving the Avery Johnson bandwagon for a long time at this point I am extremely excited about Avery Johnson taking over as the quarterback for the Kansas state Wildcats. I think he can be magnificent if his ceiling is what we think it is. Yeah. Yeah.

It's, this is a team that should win the big 12. If all goes well for them, this is a team that should make the playoff. If all goes well for them. The question is, is, is he the guy?

Is he, is he what I think he is, or am I just projecting too much? He is. He is, and we know that because K-State allowed the worst quarterback to walk who could then become the starting quarterback at Ohio State. Might win a national championship at Ohio State, yes. Think about that.

We just talked about how crazy it is in a world where the floor for Kansas football is six wins. How about a world in which the second quarterback at K-State transfers to Ohio State? Not the better one, the second one. k-state at this level there should be no question marks about his ability and so when when he's evaluating his players and he his evaluation is avery johnson is a better what they is a better player the higher ceiling like i'm forced to believe him that you know losing will howard was the right move here so he is that good i mean we saw him against texas tech have like six rushing touchdowns in a game and here's the surprise thing you know most of these teams in fact you probably count i'm not even sure if most of these teams, in fact, you're probably caught. I'm not even sure if any of these teams have, do not have the same offensive coordinator from last year. Most of the teams, the big 12 have a brand new offensive coordinator.

Kansas state's no different. Brand new offensive coordinator. I love Matt Wells working with Avery Johnson, by the way. Yes. Love the idea of Matt Wells working with Avery Johnson, former Texas Tech head coach, Matt Wells, not a quarterback's coach. Um, and so the thing that surprised me when i talked to colin klein colin klein former offensive coordinator when i talked to chris kleib at this offseason was that they wanted to design a offense that had a lot more opportunities to throw the ball down the field which is is like

interesting because will howard was pretty good at that he's got a big arm big body like he would stand in the pocket throw deliver the ball down the field so and then we saw avery johnson get involved with his legs so it's interesting to kind of be like yeah we want to bring it off it's a quarter that would help design an offense that could leverage his arm so that is a scary proposition to me they've got you know keegan johnson and jace brown down the field um you know they've got a great offensive line. They do lose some guys and Cooper Beebe, who's one of the best offensive linemen in the big 12. But again, there's a credibility factor here with Chris Kleiman.

And like, it's funny, Andy, like look at this program. What else do they have to do? When you go back and look at, at Bill Snyder and that, you know, the, the, the decades that he had and the success that they had, and then handing it over to Chris Kleiman, you talk about sustained excellence and success. Like what do they have to do to get named to some of the other top programs in the country as hard for me as that is to say as a kansas alum like it's ridiculous how much winning they've done over the last two decades the only time they didn't win is

when cider retired the first time exactly the ron prince era is the only one you're not thinking about but all right i my ceiling for them is not just when the big 12 make the playoff it is advanced in the playoff if they get there i think i think they if all goes well if avery johnson is as good as we think he might be i think that's the ceiling i think the floor for this team is eight and four maybe nine and three yeah i i think you're 100 right um this is a team that can not only get to the playoff but can advance so they we talked about their offensive line they they've had like think about in this era to have three or four offensive linemen that stay for three to four years and then once new guys you know once old guys go through new guys come in that have been there in the program they've got offensive line

ready to take over they've been there for three or four years that just doesn't happen yeah they develop well and and and understand how to develop well, yeah, I think they should be very excited. The expectations should be rightfully high. You had a five-star in your own backyard. You kept him. Now is the time to make all that turn into championships. So we'll see if they can do it. I think their ceiling is very low, like very high.

I mean, your eight, nine wins is there. Sorry, their floor is super high. Probably the highest floor in the conference. There's one other team we'll get to, I think, that has a floor like that. But we'll talk about another one that can win it, though. That's Oklahoma State. You know, we talk about what Bill Snyder did at Kansas State. I think what Mike Gundy has done in his career at Oklahoma State is almost as miraculous.

I don't know that he gets the credit for that. Agreed. But it's hard. Like, I don't know that people remember when Mike Gundy took over this program in 2005, a bowl game was not a guaranteed prospect for Oklahoma State. Like, making a bowl game was special to them. Now they make a bowl game every year. Like they are competing for the big 12 title in some years.

This is one of those years that they should compete for the big 12 title. They bring back a ton, including Ollie Gordon, maybe the best back in the country. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's they bring back a starting quarterback.

That's, you know, been starting in college football for like 10 years. Um, I can't, I remember seeing recently, like he was, he was a part of what recruiting class.

And it's like, wow, that's insane. It was like, might've been the Mitchell Trubisky. Alan Bowman played as a freshman for cliff Kingsbury at Texas. Like there's, there's so many crazy things about Alabama.

It's like, that is wild. Cliff Kingsbury, it's like five spots ago for him as the head coach at Texas Tech. So he has been the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. He has been a consultant at USC, and he is now the offensive coordinator to Washington Commanders.

All of that has happened while Al Bowman has been playing college football. I like Oklahoma State this year, although I'm not as high on them as I was last year. while Alan Bowman has been playing college football? I like Oklahoma State this year, although I'm not as high on them as I was last year. I picked Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 championship last year, which was a huge surprise. They obviously didn't.

They played for it. They played for it. What I liked was the consistency of Mike Gundy. I did not think they were going to do this quarterback carousel to start the year. That was an absolute disaster. It should have been Bowman the whole way you know they didn't they rotated guys the first three games of the season then finally gave way to bowman but i mean anytime you're talking about the leading rusher in college football is back you know they still have one of

the best pass rusher to college football and colin oliver they've been doing a lot of three-man fronts like most of the teams the big 12 they're going to run a lot more four-man fronts this year to take advantage of a guy like colin Oliver, who's such a good edge piece. So, I mean, they've to me, I don't, I'm not going to say ceiling is to win the big 12. Cause I just don't, I don't know that I've seen enough from Alan Bowman to think like he can do that and they can do that, but their floor is high. I think their floor is seven, eight wins. I think like ceiling is nine wins. Floor is eight wins.

See, I think the ceiling is when the big 12. I think that this, there's so much variability in the conference that they can absolutely. And look at the non-conference. Cause obviously that plays into at largest. Sure. Like Arkansas, that's a really winnable. Oklahoma State's gonna be favored against Arkansas. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, so we talked about like getting teams when you get them, like this is the right year to have Arkansas at your non-conference for sure. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, so we talked about like getting teams when you get them, like this is the right year to have Arkansas, you're not conference for sure. Yeah. I think Oklahoma state can win this league. I don't, I, things are going to have to break, right. I'm not as confident about them as I am about say Kansas state or Utah, but I definitely think if it's the same as Kansas, like if things break, right, they can be in the title game. Then you're in a one game scenario to make the playoff.

And so I think they're there and I'm with you. We're talking about an eight, nine win team on the floor. Like this is a, this is a good team. And again, just Mike Gundy, we can put, we've put him on the list with Bill Snyder. I think the jobs are that they've done are similar yeah and to that end eddie i mean you got to give him the benefit of the doubt yeah absolutely let's move to another guy like now okay do we need to give sonny dykes benefit

of the doubt he takes tcu to the national title game his first year there and then last year the wheels fall off you know we we watch him against Colorado and we're like okay maybe that was just Colorado is going to be really good and then you watch TCU the rest of the season it's like oh no maybe not so Josh Hoover the QB mispractice with a misprint practice of an injury Joe Gillespie is out as the D.C. Andy Avalos, who is the Boise State head coach, comes in. He runs a 3-3-5, but will mostly use one of the linebackers as an edge guy, so it'll look like an even front a lot of the time. They lose Dominic Williams, the defensive tackle to Oklahoma in the portal. He was kind of one of the bigger spring portal prizes out there.

They bring in Nana Asafo-Mensa from Notre Dame, home in the portal he was kind of one of the the bigger spring portal prizes out there um they bring in nana asafo-mensa from notre dame who's one of those guys that played a bunch at notre dame he's in his sixth year uh but probably was not going he was probably going to get one up by a younger guy on notre dame's roster so he comes in but should be very productive but that's you know kendall bryles year two is the OC. What does that look like? Can they get back is the question. Yeah. You know, so defensively, this team was so bad last year.

Avalos comes in and you mentioned the defense they're going to run. TCU fans will like the look of this defense because it's going to look a lot more like what Gary Patterson ran. It's going to be a lot more aggressive. As you mentioned, it'll be a lot more even fronts with more of a 4-2-5 than a rush three drop eight. They also, from a talent perspective, really improved their roster overall, but certainly on defense too. And look, I think if we looked at this team last year realistically, we could have seen what happened to their defense coming.

It was just as great as everything like everything worked perfectly for them year one with joe gillespie and sunny dykes and it was like everything whatever could go wrong year two went wrong and it was it was just the wrong scheme for the wrong personnel the year before it was the right scheme for the right personnel did not work year two dykes is an interesting spot right because you have three you have two years at tcu one is really good and one's really bad and so now you go into a really important season for sunny dykes with high expectations because the talent that they have with major question marks a quarterback with major question marks all around i think hoover for for from a young quarterback from a guy that had to

be thrust into a starting spot that was surprising he probably showed out as good as anybody in this conference so there's some excitement over what he's got. And then they bring in Eric McAllister, wide receiver from Boise State. I just, I don't know. I don't know that I'm buying TCU this year. There's too many question marks. We go back to that. How many things do we know?

How many question marks? They have too many question marks for me in TCU. Yeah, I think the ceiling is probably, I'm going to say eight and four. These things go well, really well, but this will be a big spread. I'm going to say four and eight for the floor, eight and four for the ceiling, because I just don't know what they're going to be. Yeah, and then you look at their, you know, at Kansas, at Utah, those are, I mean, at Utah is a tough tough game we talked about it kansas isn't maybe as tough as it it should be because it's at arrowhead although it's never a good environment

anyways then at cincinnati close it out nipper it's been a good good environment i i look at their schedule overall and say it's it's not too hard not too bad probably in the middle so i i would say i think their ceiling is probably eight wins based on their schedule uh and and their floor is probably five wins that's a yeah a little higher floor than i had but i i'm i'm with you on that let's go to lubbock though this is a place where since joey mcguire has been hired texas tech fans have been very excited about his recruiting they love the way he's building the roster they love that he goes after guys that you know you wouldn't think would normally consider Texas Tech. The question to me is when does that begin to express itself on the field? They went seven and six last year. It

was a very strange seven and six. They lose at Wyoming. They play Oregon really tough, but end up losing that game. Then they win at Kansas. They beat TCU. They win at Kansas. UCF comes in and they beat them. And then they go to Austin that last game of the regular season and just get demolished. Where are they?

What is this team? I just don't know what this team is. Yeah, TCU and Texas Tech were probably the two most inconsistent teams in the Big 12 last year. And this is a big year for Joey Maguire. There's been a lot of juice and a lot of excitement around this team. I mean, I'm a huge believer in Joey Maguire. I mean, he's just, he's incredible. He's so genuine. He's just unlike any coach I've ever been around in college football in terms of ego, no ego, super genuine. I mean, guy can recruit. He's just got so many of the pieces to

be successful. Micah Hudson, you know, who's a five-star wide receiver who they were able to get as a big coup. He's, he's now a true freshman. They brought in Josh Kelly, a really talented wide receiver from Washington state. So I, you know, I like what they have at the wide receiver position for the skill position. You've got Taj Brooks. He's been one of the best running backs in college football last couple of years. He's back. I think he was second in the big 12 and rushing last year in Taj Brooks, you know, Baron Morton. And we, I think we talked about this earlier, but, but Texas tech has not had the same starting quarterback start every game for them in a single season since Patrick Mahomes did it. So it's like, okay, let's that's,

it kind of comes down to that. If Barron Morton is healthy enough and able to play in every game of the season, they're going to have a much higher ceiling than they do if they don't. The problem is, will he? Now, he missed spring practice because still rehabbing from that AC joint sprain. And, you know, again, are they going to be good enough on the offensive line to protect a guy like Morton to keep him upright so that they're not having to shuttle in other quarterbacks?

Because that's where they struggled. When they had to go to the second third string quarterbacks they were brutally bad and a name to know uh is Caleb Rogers along their offensive line this dude is a mountain of a man big time player and a big time NFL prospect as well he could basically play anywhere along the offensive line Caleb Rogers, I just, the excitement level hasn't seemed to wane since McGuire got there. So my question is if they, if they don't put it all together this year, do they start to sour on him? Because this is one where they fired Matt Wells mid season, because it looked like they were about to go to runs. They fire Matt Wells so they can go hire McGuire. That's the one they wanted. But can they turn that into something?

You look at the draw. We talked a lot about the draw this season. No Kansas State, no Utah. They play Oklahoma State. This is a very manageable schedule. They're at Washington State. This is a very manageable schedule. They're at Washington State. We don't really know what that's going to look like in the new Pac-2. North Texas and Abilene Christian they should be able to handle, but they get Arizona State, they get Cincinnati,

they get Baylor, they get the teams we're not thinking are going to be particularly tough. If you're consistent, which again has been the problem but if you're consistent that screams high floor like seven and five type floor and like a 10 win type ceiling and part of me wants to buy joy mcguire just because not just because of the guy that he is but also also because of the way that he operates. You know, he is very much kind of at that mix of old school, but thinking well outside the box.

You know, he learned so much under Matt Rule. And, you know, so much that he's carried over now to his time at Texas Tech and how they identify and evaluate the transfer portal. You know, they've got certain thresholds they're looking at when it comes to portal, certain amount of snaps you've had to have played. They're not looking at how many stars you had. It's like, how much have you played? They have certain boxes and thresholds in terms of athleticism when it comes

to their evaluation of players, you know, coming out of high school. I just, I love the way they operate. I love the way he thinks. He's very much a analytical guy from a fourth down and a, you know, a probability standpoint. So in a world where you've got a lot of old school coaches, you think about Joe McGuire, old school Texas high school football coach, but he is very much at the forefront of many of the emerging analytical pieces that I'd like to see at work. I'd like to see this work. And so I think it will.

And again, based on what you've said, and I agree with you wholeheartedly, the schedule is not too difficult. You probably have some of the easier road games, the Big 12. So I think I think this team has a legitimate shot to win the Big 12. I think they have an easy going to Arizona and Oklahoma State and Iowa State. But I do think. They can they can manage and the games they're getting at home are games they should win. So this will be a very interesting year for them because I think the public opinion on McGuire is either going to be, this is exactly what we thought was going to happen, or, uh-oh, this is not what we wanted. So we're going to find out one way or the other.

Let's go to Orlando. Let's go to the bounce house. Gus Malzahn was not pleased after last season. It was his first under 500 season as a college head coach. He felt like they weren't ready for the big 12. He blamed himself for not making them deep enough to compete in the big 12. They had the epic collapse against Baylor. They should have beaten Oklahoma, but they get RJ Harvey back to 1400 yard back. They go get KJ Jefferson at the transfer portal, who other than Cam Newton, and there's no Cam Newton running around that Cam Newton's not walking through that door. But if you gave Gus Johnson a copy of EA sports college football 25 and made him create a player, he'd create KJ Jefferson

as his quarterback. So I'm pretty excited about what they could do offensively. Whether they can stop anyone is another question. Yeah, no. And so like number one, this offense is going to be very good. You know, KJ Jefferson has been, you know, an elite player when he's had the right coaching around him. You know, you look at his numbers last year versus when Kendall Bryles is off as a coordinator at Arkansas. Different player. So it's good for KJ to be on the Gus bus because if there's somebody that can figure out offensively how to handle KJ Jefferson, it's Gus. And on top of that, like they've had as good of a portal as anybody in college football, especially the most recent spring portal window. They added some big-time players to the portal in that period.

So I'm really high on UCF. To your point, the biggest question is, what are they going to look like on defense? Yeah. 95th in the country in sacks last year. They've got to get more pressure on the quarterback. They've got to be able to and i think that's probably why that they were so bad against the pass yeah but as you said in this league you're not gonna have teams trying to throw all over you except for a few it's now it's teams trying to run all over you u UCF is one of those teams that will try to run all over you.

That's the thing. Non-conference, they have a very interesting one where they go to Gainesville. That's one I think the Florida people are much more worried about than the UCF people because if UCF loses that game, eh, whatever. If they beat Florida, it's an existential crisis in Gainesville. And oh, by the way, KJ Jefferson beat Florida last year in the swamp with a worse Arkansas team than this UCF team by far. And that's such a big game for the big 12. You know, the big 12 needs to win games against sec opponents, you know, because the, the, the viewpoint of the big 12, the

perception of the big 12 is that it's you know it's basically now the american athletic conference relative to the power too so you know any opportunity that the big 12 has to win those games is huge you know we've heard sec athletic directors last week at sec meetings talk about yeah nine wins should be good enough in the sec to get you in that's where the big 12 needs to knock off some sec teams so that all of a sudden a nine and three team in the sec doesn't look so good because it's like oh did you not see the Big 12 needs to knock off some SEC teams so that all of a sudden a 9-3 team in the SEC doesn't look so good because it's like, oh, did you not see the Big 12 was beating some of those teams too?

So they got Utah on Black Friday. That's the only one of the Big 3 that we've been talking about that they've got to play. They could be playing Utah for a spot in the Big 12 championship game. That would not shock me at all, Ari. I'm with you. I think when you look at the quarterback, you look at the wide receivers, they have the weapons, the running game.

I think their ceiling is Big 12 championship. And maybe it's just getting to the Big 12 title game. Maybe like saying that they can win and get to the playoff would be too much of a stretch. But I just think you've got an elite quarterback that has shown that he's elite under the right tutelage. And Gus Melzahn is the right, the right coach, obviously the right offensive coordinator to get the most out of him.

So I, I love UCF this year. I'm big on UCF being a major surprise team, big 12 this year. Yeah. My ceiling for UCF is big 12 title college football playoff berth. My floor for UCF is seven and five. Like they're,

they're not, they're not going under 500 again. I don't, I don't think that's going to happen for a while. I think UCF is going to be one of the powers in the big 12 going forward. They just needed to get a little bit deeper. I agree with that.

And look, they're the only new team from last year that actually made a bowl game. So it's funny because like it was such a bad year for them because historically they just don't lose a lot of games in the same season they have it especially recently so it was so tough for them because they just aren't used to losing multiple games in the same season but they got to a bowl game so i'm with you they're they're they're like there's no way they're going to be worse they were last year uh their floor is is six seven wins yeah exactly let's get to the other big, big, biggie.

The other one that if we're just saying, all right, who can get to the playoff? Who can win games in the playoff if they make it to the playoff? How about the team that won the Pac-12 two of the last three years that the Pac-12 existed? The Utah Utes. Kyle Whittingham has done an incredible job with this program. They get Cam Rising back. Last season did not go as planned because Cam Rising got hurt in the Rose Bowl that ended the season before, and his knee injury was so serious

that it really cost him the whole year. If Cam Rising is back and looks anything like he looked when he led Utah to two consecutive Pac-12 titles, this team's going to be really tough to deal with. Yeah. And look, I mean, look at how good they were quote unquote last year with like one of the worst offenses in college football or the worst passing games in college football. So there's a lot to like, you know, about this team, you know, Reese Davis, we had Reese Davis on our show a few weeks ago. He referred to Utah as ill-tempered lads. He said Utah players are ill-tempered lads.

It's a great way to put it. They're just meat and potatoes. They will knock you off the ball. They're going to be physical with you. I love that they added Dorian Singer in the trans-portal wide receiver. I think with him, along with Money Parks, Utah is going to have a decent, you know, passing game, especially as you mentioned with rising. So yeah,

I think, you know, Brent Keithy is much as we talk about rising, being back on how much Brent Keithy returned. I missed all of last season was better than Dalton Kincaid, who wound up being picked in the first round of that draft. When Brent Keithy got hurt, like he was higher on the depth chart than,

than Dalton Kincaid, who was a first rounder. So yeah, if Brent Keithy is healthy, he he was higher on the depth chart than, than Dalton Kincaid, who was a first rounder. So yeah, if Brent Keithy's healthy, he's an absolute weapon. And then defensively, you know, they got Alakai Gilman at safety,

uh, junior to Funa at defensive tackle, uh, Van Fillinger off the edge. Like they got players. It's sort of like, you know, Utah is always going to have guys on the line of scrimmage that either are adequate to excellent like you don't see a lot of below the

line type play on Utah's offensive and defensive lines yeah yeah and and they brought in Cameron Calhoun a corner from Michigan and the transfer portal. Like there, there's a ton of talent here. They should be a much improved team from last year, given the camera rising situation. I think he's going to be fine and come back and play at a high level. So I've got their ceiling as being a top four seed in the CFP. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And then their floor,

I think we're talking, I think we're talking nine and three as the floor, as long as Cam rising stays healthy, uh, agreed that they don't know about you. My expectation, if all goes kind of chalky is a Utah Kansas state big 12 championship game, which would be a, should be a hell of a game. Well, I'm going to disagree with you because the team that I know will not only play in the big 12 championship game, but when the big 12 championship, we haven't even talked about yet neil brown going from the hot seat to holding up the trophy is that what we're going to talk about west virginia talk about the 2024

goodness west virginia mountaineers i listen i really like ne Neil Brown and I was really happy for him. Getting off the basically, you know, coaching his way off the hot seat. I thought he did a tremendous job last season. The way they've reorganized their collective, like they didn't lose anybody between 22 and 23 that they wanted. They cared about keeping same thing this year. They've got everybody back. They want to keep this. This is a fun fun group this is a fun team to watch and if you look at neil brown's time at troy too like it seemed like last year kind of fell in line with what happened to him the year

before they blew up and won 10 games of back-to-back seasons at troy so it just feels like the things are starting to fall into place like it felt like neil brown was just a guy kind of patrolling the sidelines for his first few years at west virginia now it feels like this is neil brown's program and you know we've we heard so he came out of spring practice and he said offensive line is gonna be a strength and it was like you just lost zach frazier you know who's one of the best centers in college football last year you just lost doug nester as a great offensive line what do you mean it's gonna be a strength strength of this team? I love the confidence that he has. He does have some dudes back in the offensive line.

There's no doubt about that. The reason I'm picking West Virginia to win the conference is I think they're as good up front on both lines of scrimmage as anybody. I think they've got the best quarterback, arguably, at the conference in Garrett Green, who just scratched the surface at his potential last year. He had some fantastic games. He did have some weird ones.

The end of the Houston game was unbelievable where they lost Houston. Yeah, that was a very strange game. But I'm really high on Garrett Green. I'm really high on their offensive and defensive lines. And we've heard all the right things out of Morgantown this offseason, and I like their schedule too. How about Garrett Green, also dual threat. Averaged six yards of carry last year.

He runs really well. Jaheim White know, averaged six yards of carry last year. He runs really well. Jaheim White averaged 7.7 yards of carry. Now, C.J. Donaldson is the big back, is kind of the bruiser, but Jaheim White's the one who should really scare you. Agreed. In fact, I'm probably going to pick him to be the player of the year in the Big 12 because it's usually a guy that comes from out of nowhere. I mean, obviously, Ollie Gordon came kind of out of nowhere last year it could very much emerge this

year but yeah the way that he ran and then how we've heard him discussed throughout this off season he's gonna be the guy he's gonna get the carries now they still have to your point you know he's still another miles to feed with donaldson and whatnot but i just think hubbard hubbard um um white is gonna be so good yeah he's gonna be good. I think they found some things at the end of the year with White and Garrett Green that they really like. This is, I'm so excited that you said, I don't think their ceiling is as high as you do. I think their ceiling is probably nine or 10 wins,

but especially with Penn State to open things up. But I also think they can give Penn State a game, which I think is going to be a lot of fun. Penn State coming to Morgantown is one of my favorite games of the opening weekend of college football. This is going to be a fun team to watch. I think their floor is 7-5. I think they're going to be a very good team one way or the other.

But wow, a ceiling of Big 12 champ CFP participant. And in this case would be a buy in the CFP more, more than likely would be the top four seed West Virginia. Yeah. From being excited. Let's get some tutors biscuits and celebrate for being picked to finish last the conference last year to a team that I think is still underrated, had to get to this season based on what they accomplished last year.

And then I'll say this, the Penn state West Virginia game is the most important game in the big 12 this entire year, because when we talk about these teams, as it pertains to the CFP, there's a credibility that you need for winning some of these games. And though that game last year was close, West Virginia was never really in it.

So it just always felt like penn state was going to win that game so i just this year you got an opportunity to win that game how big of a deal would it be for this conference to get one of those wins early on to really set the tone well let's let's talk about it before we let the people go let's i i think we can tell everybody the top three of those it's penn state west virginia it's i State, Iowa, and it's UCF, Florida. Those are all games that the Big 12 team can win. Yep. Yep.

But they won't be favored. But if they do win, massive for the conference. And that's what it gets down to, like, at-large bids. You know, would a 9-3 Big 12 team get enough versus a 9-3 SEC team? Probably not, but more so if you can look back and say, well, they, you know, the West Virginia is really good. It used to be that we could put the big 12 teams. How'd you do against Oklahoma?

How'd you do against Texas? Those were like the litmus tests. Now we don't know who that is. It could be West Virginia, but it won't be from a perception standpoint unless they beat Penn state. You know what I mean? Like Oklahoma, Texas carried a level of cache and, and credibility that it didn't really matter a perception standpoint unless they beat Penn State. You know what I mean? Like Oklahoma and Texas carried a level of cachet and credibility that it didn't really matter what games they won or lost.

It was always the measuring stick for everybody else. Who the measuring stick teams are this year? Like if you're losing to MAAC teams, not a good look for the Big 12. We can probably throw a collar on Nebraska on that list. I think Nebraska is going to be pretty good this year. It's just they haven't been good the last few years. So, but let's say if Colorado were to beat Nebraska and then Nebraska,

you know, still wins eight games this year, that's going to look great too. That's, that's the stuff that the big 12 needs. And by the way, other big 12 teams, you need to schedule games like that.

Like don't be scheduling at Texas state, which you can lose by the way, other big 12 teams, you need to schedule games like that. Like don't be scheduling at Texas state, which you can lose by the way. Like if you're going to lose, if you're going to schedule something, you might lose, make it somebody where if you win, there's a massive benefit to it. Yeah. Yeah. No kidding. Well, and that's, you know, the North Dakota state one, right? Like to like, even if it's not as good of a team this year, as you expect or what the program's been, like why schedule? Like like it's just a lose-lose there's no benefit to scheduling that

game none ari this has been a pleasure i have kept you far too long thank you so much for going through the whole freaking big 12 with me i didn't think it would take very short i'll be honest 16 teams a lot to get to no thank you and you, Andy. Appreciate you having me on, buddy. It's amazing.