Andy & Ari On3 - The most INTRIGUING head coach storylines for the 2026 college football season | Kirby Smart, Dan Lanning, Steve Sarkisian

Episode Date: March 9, 2026

Happy Monday! As a new week is underway, it’s time for Andy & Ari to discuss the biggest head coaching storylines ahead of the 2026 college football season. With plenty of storylines to choose from, the fellas break it down into 3 categories: The Established, The Newcomers, and The ones in “Do or Die” mode. Watch here as Andy & Ari go through their list here. Do you agree with the guys? Who should be here instead?   (0:00) On Today’s Episode (0:38) Presenting Sponsor (2:22) Intro: Intriguing Storylines (5:30) Established: Kirby Smart, Georgia (16:55) Steve Sarkisian, Texas (27:10) Dan Lanning, Oregon (38:16) Newcomers: Kyle Whittingham, Michigan (49:13)  Lane Kiffin, LSU (59:05) Matt Campbell, Penn State (1:07:05) Do or Die: Lincoln Riley, USC (1:13:46) Dabo Swinney, Clemson (1:21:17) Josh Heupel, Tennessee (1:29:16) Conclusion: Thanks for watching!   Do you think Andy & Ari got their list right? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!   Send in your questions for Dear Andy & Ari here: [e-mail] [e-mail]   Our show is also presented by BetMGM!   If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works:   1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB. 2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. 3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sure you use bonus code CFB when you sign up!   Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary.   See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.   Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/join   Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/0_v0pxB_b5M   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM. We dig into some of those intriguing coaching storylines of 2006. We've got the established guys, Sark, Dan Laning, Kirby Smart, the newcomers, Kyle Winningham at Michigan, Matt Campbell at Penn State, Lane Kiffin at LSU. And the guys that may have to be in do-or die mode this year, we're talking, Lincoln, Riley, Davo Sweeney, Josh Hyple? question mark. Lots of juicy coaching storyline to talk about.

We'll break it all down on today's Andy and Rion 3 presented by BetMGM. This show is presented by BetMGM, and there's no better place to be during March matchups than Las Vegas. This year, college basketball fans can win a VIP trip to the Court of Legends event featuring the Cavender Twins. Simply play sports bets and your position on a leaderboard will determine if you win one of the 25 grand prize packages. Just sign into your BetMGM account, opt into the promotion,

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now we're doing the most intriguing coaching storylines, Ari. And this is, when you came to me with this idea, I was very excited because there are lots of coaches in kind of different parts of their coaching lives right now. And it's really interesting to talk about where some of these guys are because, like, I can't wait until we get into the Kirby Smart conversation or the Steve Sarkeesian conversation because those are very successful guys who, are still in a spot where their fans are probably like, okay, we would like a little more right now,

which if I'm Kirby Smart, I'm like, come on. Yeah. The entire Kirby Smart question is when does he have to stop saying, come on? But we'll get to it. But that's what's interesting. Yeah. Yeah, it's fascinating because, look, the money's huge. And we'll talk about what Brian Kelly said to Dusty DeVorchek and Danny.

Kennell last week in his first interview since getting fired at LSU. But one of the things he said was college football is actually in a pretty good place because the money's there. And he was like, yeah, you know, let's use playing at Paying Lane Kiffin. They're paying me. We'll get into that when we talk about Lane. But the money is huge. All these guys are making massive money.

And that means commensurate pressure. That's right. I actually thought maybe we would start the show talking about Joe Burrow and Jessica Alba. What? They're dating, by the way, apparently. Did she my age? He's not my age. She's 15 years older than him. And if you're in the card game, Burroughs a buy, that guy's got ultimate aura. But, you know, I think that if we're going to talk about drama, what we came up with is pretty good, too. So, you know, I think that's 22-year-old Andy applauding Joe Burrow. I would take Jessica Albao if she was 87-year-old.

And he's applauding Joe Borough too. Good job. Good job, Joe. We're all applauding for you, Joe. And, you know, get well soon and, you know, find your love for the game again. But if you don't, you already won in life. So, you know, it's right. I think that these episodes are obviously staples of the off season, but I think they're super important, too, because it almost feels like it's a roll call of where we at with people.

You know, it's like, you know, not to lean on the Kirby Smart discussion, but, like, Kirby Smart is arguably one of the three best coaches in college football and every other program in the country would die to have him as their head coach. But has he found himself or will he find himself eventually in the same scenario as other coaches who are ultimately scrutinized against their own accomplishments or, you know, resume? Because I guess we can go right into it, right? Let's do it. Let's talk Kirby Smart right now.

Yeah. So top, we're going to do three categories here, right? The categories are established, newcomers, and do or die. Right. So we'll do the established ones, guys who have been proven winners, or people who have done enough to at least say that they've turned around their program they're at. And let's go into Kirby Smart. So at the beginning of the episode here, as you introduced us into it, Andy, you said that people in Athens are probably disgruntled or impatient or wanting more.

and as they should, right? It is a... But not, but not like torches and pitchforks. Like, let's do a little tail of tape. Kirby Smart is 50 years old. He's been Georgia's head coach since 2016. He's 117 and 21. He's won two national titles.

He's made the college football playoff each of the last two years. He made it a bunch when it was four teams. He's made it obviously both years since it went to 12. They are expected to make it again this year. They won the last two SEC titles. So Kirby Smart has been, by every metric, incredibly successful at Georgia and continues to be incredibly successful. So my question, because you understand, you know, the South better than me, you live there.

Let's just say for hypothetical standpoint that Georgia has another season that looks just like the last two, where they are certainly a top seven team. they make the CFP and they lose in their first game, whether it be after a buy or not. And let's even give them the SEC title, which would be like the last two seasons. What are we good with that if we're a Georgia fan? Or have you tasted the nectar, meaning the dynasty or the best unquestionable program in the entire sport?

And do you need to advance? Do you need to win at a high, high level again? I'm not even saying going to win the national. title. That's a very hard thing to do. That shouldn't be the expectation for anyone, even though it's the expectation for plenty of fan bases. I think that that's the expectation for a lot of the coaches that we're going to talk about today. But because of his resume and because of the, come on guys, because he is coming off an SEC championship, how many years of this is good enough and is this good enough? Maybe this is good enough. And I'd be very curious, we'll theorize this.

together. But what do Georgia fans think? Like, as you get your titles, you know, you had a 35-year or whatever layoff between the first Kirby title and the last one in 1980. Are you okay with just being really, really good? You understand rationally that the sport is different and it's harder to be the king for 10 years straight the way that Alabama was, or did you taste the nectar? And are you uncomfortably impatient or frustrated? Okay. This is a This is so hard because I think if you ask most Georgia fans individually right now, March 9th, hey, you cool with everything's going on now? Most of them are going to be mostly cool with it.

They're going to say, yes, keep doing what you're doing, because if you win the SEC and you get a buy into the playoff, even if you've lost in that second round in that quarter final, round that you had to buy into the last two years, you can overcome that. There's an element of randomness to it. Look, Georgia and Ole Miss were tied with 10 seconds to go in this year's quarterfinals. So it's not like Georgia laid an egg. The year before, Georgia was starting a quarterback for the first time because their longtime starting quarterback had been injured in the SEC championship game. So it's not like they have just laid eggs in the playoff. There are

explanations for the exits. Meanwhile, they've had incredibly good seasons in the two seasons since the SEC went to 16 teams and the schedule definitely got harder for Georgia. You know, Georgia's SECE schedule was much easier than what they've dealt with the last two years. And they they handled that very well. So I think most rational Georgia fans, And most even irrational Georgia fans would say, this is fine, this is great. Now, I do know there is that element represented by frequent commenter on our show, Matt, who isn't satisfied with the way the offense is run and does not like the way Mike Bobo runs the offense. I still, I don't think that's risen to the level of something you should be concerned about.

I think where they've been the last two years, the seasons they've had the last two years, if they have another season like that, the odds of them losing the quarterfinal actually pretty low. Like you keep having seasons like that, you're going to advance the playoffs. Yeah. Andy, hypothetical number two.

Oh, boy. Nine and three out. Then they get mad. Then they're like, start firing coordinators, please. Okay. So that would be step one. It's always fire coordinators first.

Here's another shot. I'm just, I don't know. My personal philosophy, Andy, and I know that you hate this, but I believe it to be true. I think that if you win a national championship, you should get 10 more years. Gene Chisig and Ed Ors are like, from your mouth to God's ears. I mean, I really do believe that. And maybe 10's too long, maybe five is better because 10 is an eternity in the sport. And a lot can change in a short amount of time.

But we know how hard it is to do that. So if anybody does it, regardless if they have Cam Newton on their team, or if they're 2002 Miami, 2001 Miami, actually not 2002, but you have really good players, whatever, even if you figure out a way to win the championship, however you do it. Well, Larry Coker got five more years, I think, or maybe four more. But Kirby Smart is not in that zone at all. Like his clock did not start with the last national championship.

Yes. They've still been good every year since. And this is not even close to those discussions. This isn't an insinuation that he's in any trouble holding his job. That would be insane. And I hope nobody's taking it this way. It's an exploration and a conversation about him. And basically my question that I would love to see come to fruition here.

Or I mean, I just like would be interested to see how it play out if it got to this, I should say. Well, here's the thing. It's not an exploration of Kirby Smart's job status or anything like that. It's an exploration of how high can your standard be before it becomes impossible to meet. And I think Kirby Smart is close. I think Nick Saban held it as high as possible for the longest time possible. And we're not probably going to see that again. But Kirby Smart has got the standard very,

high, so high that it's going to be hard to meet it all the time. I'm going to say the quiet part out loud, though. Are you ready? I'm ready. Nick Saban brainwashed the entire sport and making us think that winning a championship is easier than it is. That's part of it. Oh, I agree 100% with that.

And then when Georgia won their two, everybody crowned Georgia the next Bama and thought they were going to do what Bama did. Yeah, exactly. But here's the quiet part out loud. Those titles came before the sport changed. Agreed. They were the last. They were the last.

I say the Ohio State 24 title was kind of the last team built that way. But Ohio State was built. I'm not saying that the Georgia teams were the last ones that were built that way. They were the last ones that were built that way during a time in which there weren't other ones built that way, really. And you can't stack the talent the way they had the talent stacked. You cannot have a team like those teams anymore. And then the concept of equity is interesting to me because you win two national championships in the recent past. That's a heck of a lot of equity.

But does the equity have the same value if it occur in the modern landscape? Or does that diminish the value of your equity? because it's different now. Like, I'm just asking. I don't know. But I just, I think. I don't think there's been enough sample size in this era to make that decision or that declaration yet.

But it is really interesting. And look, I'm telling you right now, if Georgia goes 10 and 2 in the regular season, wins the SEC championship again, enters the playoff at 11 and 2 in the quarter final, like, or 12 and 1 in the quarter final, like they're going. They're going to break through. It's just like I said with Kirby before he broke through and won a national title. Like you keep doing it, you're going to break through. They keep doing it.

Yeah. Very good program, very good team, great athletes, all those things. But what he's done puts him in like rarefied air everywhere else. Even if you take George's seasons that would probably be viewed as mediocre for their standard and then assign them to a team that hasn't won a championship recently, he would be like in made man territory anywhere else. But I am curious once you get it, again, a taste of what it is to win at the highest level.

Ari, it doesn't matter where you are. If you win the way Kirby has won, you end up setting the standard too high for yourself to meet. Yeah. But if he had the two seasons that he had at Georgia the past two years at Arkansas, he would like have his staff. Yeah, he'd build a statue. Yeah, exactly.

And these seasons aren't, but like, let's be honest, as good as they were the last two years, that wasn't Georgia's standard. And I just wonder how long of not meeting the standard as high as it is before people. Yeah, the question is, do you change the standard of something more realistic or do you just get mad at him? And I think college football history shows they get mad at the coach instead of making the standard more realistic. But it's a fascinating one of it's ever made the standard more realistic. Nebraska?

Is that an example? Well, but it took, It took firing two fairly successful coaches before that happened. Yeah. Two decades. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Frank Solich and Bo Polini get fired before the standard changes.

So yeah, it's tough. But I think Kirby's going to be fine. As Kirby says, as Kirby says, no crying from the yacht. Yeah. But definitely interesting case study. Let's go to the next one. We moved to a different yacht. Let's go to Austin, Texas.

Steve Sarkesian, he's 52 years old. He has been the head coach at Texas since 2021. The first year they went 5 and 7, then they went 8 and 5, then 12 and 2, 13, and 3, 10, and 3. So he's 48 and 20 in his time at Texas in his five seasons. He made the, after two years of build,

he made the semifinals for the next two years, once in the 14 playoff. once in the 12th team playoff. Last year, they just missed it. They were nine and three. We've argued a bunch about their schedule. Had they not scheduled Ohio State, maybe they would have made it. Had they not lost to Florida, which wasn't nearly as good at them, they definitely would

have made it. So that's where they're at. They have not gotten over the hump. Unlike Kirby Smart, who got George over the hump, who won two national titles, they have not gotten there. they have not played for the national title yet, though they, again, have made the semifinals twice in Steve Sarkisian's tenure. So what does he have to do?

And the answer is easy. Or he's got to go win a national title or get him closer to winning national title, get him to a national title game. And I would say the administration's been very good to him. Crystal Connie, their ID has done a really good job of getting everybody on the same page there. They give the coaching staff the resources they need. in this era they seem to certainly be willing to spend on players. So that's it.

Your mandate, because you've been given this, is go get closer to a national title or win one. The difference between Kirby Smart and Steve Sartesian is that his own standard isn't multiple national titles. So the fan base is still starved for it. And I think that he has already delivered something that Texas hadn't had, you know, for multiple decades. And I think he could still live off of that. In terms of the frustration, I think that it exists because last year the team was pretty good and had some pretty important big time pieces and they did not make the playoff.

Although if last year was a disaster year, you know, all the teams, I think they had more wins over AP top teams than anyone. Yeah, yeah, I was saying, if last year was a disaster, I'll take it because it means this year's going to be awesome. Like, here's the thing within that's so interesting to me. they did not make the playoff regardless of how you break down last year they did not make the playoff this year they return a large portion of their team their offensive line is presumably going to be much better archmanning is in a second year as a starter and they went out and paid two and a half million plus for a receiver transfer it almost feels like they cannot afford to miss the playoff this year period no they can't they they they need to make the playoff

There will be a lot of angst if they miss the playoff this year. Now, if it's, they're 10 and 2 and it's some controversial miss, that's one thing. But look at their schedule. If they're 10 and 2, they are not missing the playoff with the schedule. So you're exactly right. This is what I was saying. They've given him the resources. He certainly bought himself plenty of goodwill because Texas was so bad by their standard.

So mediocre by everybody else's standard. But by their standard, it was bad for the better part of a decade. And he brought them out of that. He brought them back into the national title picture. He brought them into an era where they now have rosters where they not only get really good recruits coming in, they have high draft picks going out. And so he's fixed that part for them. Now they want the next piece.

They want to take the next step. And I don't think last year is an indictment of Steve Sarkesian at all. I think when you lose most of a really good offensive line and you change quarterbacks and you lose a three-year starting quarterback, a step back is usually expected. It was not expected this time because of the last name of the quarterback who was taking over. And the talent and pedigree of the player, I think. It is so fascinating. I think he does deserve some criticism for last year because I think he dropped the ball in their assessment of what they had on their offensive line during last year's. That's the legitimate criticism of last year.

And it's not really a coaching during the season criticism. It is a decision-making December 2024 through the middle of January 2025 where you can really legitimately critique them for not. accurately figuring out what their offensive line could be and what they actually needed. In fairness, because I do want to be kind of fair to him. What was Texas doing last year

during the portal window? They were in the playoff. They were getting players. They were getting players in other positions. So I get it. It was a miscalculation. They looked at what they had coming back on the offensive line, the young players that they'd been

developing on their team, and they thought they'd be good enough, which those players actually may end up being good enough because they're still there. And they got better as last season went on, but they weren't good enough at the beginning. They certainly weren't good enough in Gainesville that day, and that's what happened.

But the most interesting thing that I saw last year, and it made me chuckle every time I saw it, was criticism from Texas fans of Sark saying, he needs to stop calling plays and take a more global view as the CEO. The man's a really good play caller. This isn't a case of like Billy Napier at Florida where he wasn't a good play caller, and that's why they wanted him to hire an offensive coordinator. This is just a case of we're not getting exactly what we want,

so we're going to say we want something different. I don't think you want something different. I think you just want a little bit better offensive line and a little more experienced quarterback. And guess what you got this year, both of those things. Well, he's also, we have to say what this is. The quarterback situation there is kind of a circus. You know, in terms of, it's not a typical handoff transfer of power.

No, because in no other situation would you push Quinn Ewers out the door. And Quinn Ewers is going to be starting for the Dolphins this year, I think, isn't he? I mean, maybe they could sign somebody. I don't know. They could draft somebody. But the point is that there was a lot of. of litigation about why Arch didn't play more in the late part of the 2024 season, and then his poorest start, you know, in 2025 and a lot of like the decisions about

the quarterback position at that point, which I think, you know, you think, and I think I agree with you that he has managed this beautifully. That Arch has managed this well. Arch has managed this well, but that Sarkeesian has managed it pretty well, too. Yeah, oh yeah, all the criticism of Arch and, you know, getting through that part. I think, yeah, I think like, when we sat there after they beat Oklahoma, I thought the way he was talking about Arch is exactly the way you need to talk about arch as your guy is starting to turn a corner.

Yeah, so like it is a very interesting timeline in Texas's history, but like I actually believe that even if you're a Texas fan who I think there are a few that were frustrated by last year and mad at him about the red zone efficiency and all the things that you could possibly get mad about that's that's the that's the kind of albatross still hanging over him that's the mike bobo thing yeah yeah it's red zone red zone percentage for steve sarkesian they get they get to the red zone a lot but they do not put the ball in the end zone as much as everybody would like and as much should when you get there that much right for a potential run deep in this thing this year they have everything and that's the thing

They have everything they need. So if they don't make it, then the criticism is valid. Does that make sense? I think it does. Well, and last year, too, this is going to controversial thing. I was afraid to say it, but I'm just going to say it because it's a podcast. Are we sure they had good enough playmakers last year? We are not sure about that.

We're not sure about that. We know what happened with the offensive line, and we can watch that group get better as the season went on. And now at the end of the season, you're watching them play against Texas A&M. You know, you watch them play against Michigan and the bowl game. You're thinking, okay, I think,

I think these guys are going to be all right. And then they went out and vastly improved the roster in the portal. And their best defensive players are back. Correct. Now, did they have the playmakers they needed? I would say the portal action, Cam Coleman, Hollywood Smothers, Relique Brown, I would say the portal action suggests they did not believe they did.

Which then I wonder too, do you think that they dropped the ball and not acquiring a receiver or somebody who could break a game open last year too? That might be pushing it. But I do think that you also have to remember too that Ryan Wingo was still a pretty inexperienced player last off season and he just didn't flourish the way that I think people anticipated that he would. And not that he won't, he has a chance now. I think he has a real chance to have an awesome season

now that Cam Coleman is going to be lined up next to you. And, you know, I look at the roster top to bottom. and I pick as of, you know, early March, them to win the national championship this coming year. So he has to make the playoff, though, and certainly belongs in the established category, though, Andy. Absolutely. Now, he's got to take that next step. The question is, can he? But that's the question you ask of all these guys before they get over the hump.

We asked it of Kirby Smart. We asked it of Ryan Day. Now we don't ask it of them anymore because they did it. So that's next up for Steve Sarkeesian. Can you do it? Speaking of, can you do it? Dan Lannning at Oregon, one of the most successful early runs of a coach that we've seen,

kind of similar a little bit to his former boss, Kirby Smart, when Kirby took over at Georgia without the rough first year that Kirby had to deal with. But Dan Laining is now 39 years old. He's only 39 years old. which is mind-blowing. He's 48 and 8 as a head coach. He's made the college football playoff on two occasions. They have gotten blown out by the eventual national champions in both of those.

I think all eight of those losses were top 10 teams. Yes. They don't lose to bad teams. Yeah. So, yeah. Yeah. So you've got that. I mean, in 2023, they had two losses to the team,

one of the teams that made the national title game in Washington. So they're just, they're good. They've been good, but they keep running into the buzz saw at the end of the season when given the way they're moving, given the resources they put into the program, given everything that they've done. They want to be the buzzsaw at some point. Yeah. And I think that that's a fair criticism.

And, you know, you and I have both been pretty, strongly supportive of Dan Lanning and patience and, you know, the evolution of the team and realizing that, you know, winning the national championship is hard. It's never been harder to do it than it is now. And when you play two teams that were maybe, you know, a step or two more advanced than you, that can be frustrating. And I think the other thing that's frustrating is the Kurt Signetti torture chamber that he puts every other coach in because Oregon fans are also probably looking at Indiana

and saying, well, you know, you're telling us to be patient and we just got our butts kicked by, you know, Indiana. Right. And Indiana is. So did everybody else. Further, much shorter into the lifespan of their new coach and have certainly not traditionally invested the same type of capital and, you know, resources into their program the way that Oregon has. And I think that's a fair, a fair point.

My retort to that would be, don't compare yourself to Indiana. I don't think anybody should compare themselves to Indiana. crazy. It's a very unique situation. But now, here's the thing with Oregon. The New York theory is never more prevalent or more strong or, like, it seems like an inevitability, especially when you read out his record handy and you say that he's 48 and 8.

And the only teams that they have lost to were either eventual national champions or teams that, you know, made runs in the playoff. I don't think that they've lost a team that didn't make it to the semis. If I, that might not be true, but I think it's true. Unless I'm forgetting. Like there's no weird Oregon State loss. They didn't lose the USC at any point during his tenure. They've been really consistently good.

And I think that what you're waiting for is the next step. But as you've pointed out a million times on the show, Andy, it's so much better to go from, I mean, it's so much easier to go from 15 to 5 than it is to go from 5 to 1. Exactly. The last jump is the hardest jump. And they just, it's interesting to me because they've gotten one step closer, it feels like, each time.

And so if they get another step closer this year, it means they make the national title game. By the way, they did lose to Oregon State one year. His first year, they lost to Oregon State one year. But that was a good Oregon State team. The Oregon State team was ranked, I think, but not in the top 10. Yeah, they also lost to eventual national champion Georgia that year. So, yeah. By 100.

But that's a good segue to my next point. And, you know, I like doing comparison, so let me do this comparison. There's another fairly young offensive-minded head coach that took over at a program that expects to win national championships. And that's Ryan Day over at Ohio State. And I think that you could make the case. It's not a case. It's actually a fact that Ohio State was leaps and bounds ahead in their build and their process of who they were and who they are when Ryan Day took the day he took over, than Dan Lannning. And there's no further illustration of that point than the way that Oregon

played in their very first game under Landing leadership. They played Georgia, a team that, you know, did go very deep and was built traditionally like a power. And they got, it was so embarrassing. It felt like it should have been a running clock. And Dan Lannning, you know, understood having just come from Georgia that there is so many more leaps you need to take from a talent acquisition perspective to be able to play with that team. And he went out and did it. Now, yeah, I don't know if that Georgia team exists in this modern era. Maybe the closest thing to it was an Ohio State team that they lost to in the Rose Bowl. But like he, Ryan Day took how, what was it, year five when they won its first championship there?

Yeah. And the thing is, Ryan Day inherited people who had built national championship teams before. He inherited infrastructure. Yeah. With people who had been part of national championship teams before at Ohio State and at Florida. So it was a different situation. like Mario Cristobal left Oregon in good place. Like Mario Cristobal left Oregon with a pretty talented roster,

but not a roster that was national title worthy. You know, Mario Cristobal had to go get Miami national title worthy and Dan Laining had to get Oregon national title worthy. And Mario got his team to the national title game first, but I'd say Dan's had them closer more years. So like I have no doubt that if he keeps doing what he's doing, that Dan Laining is going to get Oregon in position to win a national title. I think that the best team in the country, and maybe this will look really stupid because Indiana was just awesome,

I think that as we go on into the playoff era of 12-team era, that the national champion is going to incrementally become worse and worse and worse than some of the national champions that we've seen. I think that's fair. I think there will be, there may be outlier years where you just get an incredible collection of talent. Yeah, but it's not important. possible at Bam or Georgia, Ohio State, one of these teams. But it is much harder to put together that kind of team and will continue to get harder as rosters spread out as the market finds its level. And guys who would have sat the bench behind other five stars go, you know what?

I can make more money and play more sooner at this other place. So I'm going to go there. And the reason I say this, Andy, is because if your fear as an Oregon fan right now is that Oregon has reached its ceiling, even if you think that this is the best that this team can ever be, which isn't true, but even if you think that, I think that if they can stay consistently this good, which they've proven they can, that the buzz saws that they've lost to the last few years aren't going to exist. And I think that Oregon's teams that they have fielded the last two years will actually be good enough to win a national championship in 2029. Like, I think eventually

even if they stay where they are right now. This year is an interesting case because if you look at what they did in the transfer portal, it is not Oregon going and grabbing a whole lot of players. They don't need much. They feel very comfortable with the guys they've had. Look, they'll spend money. They went and got some guys.

But for the most part, they felt pretty good about what they had. a lot of guys who signed with Oregon in 24 and 25 are now hitting their stride as Oregon Ducks. I think that there are multiple ways to win races. And it doesn't mean that you're always passing somebody at the finish line. I think that you can stay consistent and teams that are more up and down can go up and down. And eventually, if you stay up here and you just keep going in this direction, eventually up here is going to be the best, I think, with the way that the sport is trend. This reminds me of Georgia, and I realize the eras are different.

We've discussed how the eras are different. But this reminds me of Georgia in the early years under Kirby, where they're just there and there and there and there and eventually the right collection of players. When's the thing? Yeah. And I think in college football now more than ever, you know what I think a lot about that like LeBron James existed. like during the Warriors dominance.

And like I think that, you know, LeBron's legacy as maybe one of the two best, three best basketball players of all time is certainly cemented. Yeah, imagine what it would have been if the Warriors hadn't gotten it all right. Yeah, like Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Clay Thompson Warriors weren't humming on all cylinders.

Like the Warriors are like, let's just keep Mark Jackson, we don't need Steve Kerr. Yeah. Yeah. I think a lot of times sports too is about like the ecosystem that you exist in. Yeah. And like, I think Oregon is one of the five most equipped programs in college football right

now to at least consistently maintain being excellent. And I, and I just, I think it'll happen. I think that back in 2019, if you were always really good, this, like, if you're Oregon in 2018, if you're Oregon, 2017, 18, 19, 20, you might be like, God, we're really good, but are we ever going to be as good as Georgia? And you might actually be like, no. And like, that would be a fair thing to think. but now there's no other are we ever going to be as good as that because you've already proven through Lannings leadership that you can fuel the national championship level team.

You just also happen to exist in the same ecosystem as some other monsters that may or may not exist in every year moving forward. So just keep it going. I think that, you know, of the three coaches that we talked to about in the established list, Andy, that the two that haven't won a championship, Sark and Lannning, It feels like an inevitability that both of them will at least win one in the next five to seven years. Is that a fair assessment? I think it's going to happen. I don't think it feels inevitable because it's hard to win a national championship. I think one of them will.

They'll do it. Yeah. I think if I had to make a bet with you right now. One definitely will and probably both. Yeah, one definitely. Yeah. I think I would say I would bet any amount of money that at least one of them would in the next seven years. Maybe it would be harder to say both.

But it seems inevitable to me that both will. So unless the sport changes again, I don't know. But, you know, that was a good first breakdown of the list of the established. You ready for an old newcomer? Yes, I am. The oldest newcomer ever. We have to look this up. I don't know what the oldest first year head coach has ever been in the history of college football.

But Kyle Whittingham has to be close to it if he's not the oldest. He's 66 years old. He is 177 and 18. as a head coach. He's 11 and 6 in bowl games. He became the head coach at Utah when Urban Meyer left for Florida after the 2004 season. So he's been the head coach at Utah since then. He steps down at Utah two days before or so, excuse me,

two days after Michigan had fired Sharon Moore. This has been a wild set of circumstances. And this has been a strange kind of trip because, Kyle Whittingham, one of the most respected coaches in the game, still getting it done. Went 11 and 2 at Utah last year. Now, I had two bad years before that. A lot of that can be attributed to kind of a snowball effect of Cam Rising, the quarterback, getting hurt in that Rose Bowl after the 2022 season.

Yeah. So it's a strange deal. But the conventional wisdom is that Kyle Whittingham felt like he was being nudged. at Utah. Morgan Scally, who played for Kyle Whittingham, was the coaching waiting. And the thought is that Kyle Whittingham

felt the nudge and that people at Utah were kind of ready to move into the Morgan Scally era. So he steps down. Ari, I have not brought this up on a show yet, and we have not talked about this yet.

Do you think he stepped down with the intention of coaching again this year? I don't. In 2026. I don't. Do you? I think he definitely stepped down with the intention of coaching again.

He was not retiring and he said that. I don't think that he anticipated that whatever opportunity he would get would present itself this beautifully that quickly. And frankly speaking, I don't think that Michigan thought that there was a coach of his caliber that would be available during the time in which they had to find one. So it kind of like worked out this way. The thing that I think is most interesting about this is that Kyle Whittingham

is an experienced proven winner at a lower level. level. He was never hired while he was winning at the highest level. And I don't know why. And I don't know if he would have left Utah during the heyday, you know, the prime year. It's interesting because it was such a, it's such, it was such an interesting build because so he takes over. They're the Mountain West champs. Urban Myers just had this great season where they busted the BCS. Wittingham keeps them good. he then makes him in 2008 probably even better than they were in that year with Meyer when they go undefeated they beat Alabama in the bowl game in the Sugar Bowl and then they get bumped up to the Pack 12 there's a couple tough years as he tries to

build some depth but then he does build the depth and like they win two of the last three Pack 12 titles so we're talking about juiciness zero days you know one of our commenters said that R.E. needs to get Kleenex and work on his sniffles. So my way of doing that is while I'm sniffling, muting my mic, and I forgot to unmute it. I apologize. But are you getting the Michigan won the national championship three years ago? Yes. That was supposed to be their entry into the elite of the elite.

They were going to hand off the program to a program to a that was there during that run and played an integral role on that team's run to maintain that excellence. And then all hell breaks loose off the field. They lose that person who may honestly wasn't clearly doing a good enough job while he had the job. How much pressure is Kyle Whittingham to make sure that Michigan doesn't lose whatever momentum that it had from winning the national championship and falling back in another 25-year period of being pretty good but not great. Because on one hand, this is a very critical moment in their program arc. But on the other hand, don't you also have to give him the benefit of the doubt that, hey,

what happened at the end of during last year was highly dysfunctional in a way that we don't really see very often in sports in general, let alone college sports. and you got hired during a weird time on the calendar. You probably weren't anticipating coaching this year. Like, do you get a year to try to get your bearings of a new place that expects to win a championship? Like, I don't know how Michigan fans are viewing this season. Now, you'll tell me what you always tell me. They demand excellence and they expect excellence.

There's no honeymoon. I think that's true. But from a rational analysis of this, I don't know how to view what the expectate. Like, what is a successful season for Kyle Whittingham in year one? Make the playoff. And this really isn't about Michigan's expectations. It's more about Kyle Whittingham's expectations, and the fact that Kyle Whittingham did this and the fact that Michigan did this.

This was Michigan going out and getting the best coach they could get. But it's very interesting because, let's say Michigan had fired Sharon Moore and more conventional way and it had been just for losing, and it had been at the end of the season. and Kyle Whittingham had been one of the coaches that was available, but one of many that was available, that the whole cycle hadn't already been done. I still would have called hiring Kyle Whittingham

maybe the best hire of the cycle. I don't think a 66-year-old guy goes to this place to rebuild it. He's going to win now. That's the whole point of this. He's not doing this, except it is to win now. But Andy, their need for him, him to win now from a program standpoint, even if you view him as a

four or five year rental is so massive because they were so close to breaking through and being being in the same sphere as... But I think if Kyle Whittingham had replaced Jim Harbaugh,

they probably would have broken through. Yeah. And just stay there. It's an interesting, interesting point. I didn't think about that. not something anybody thought about, obviously. But yes. Why wasn't he a candidate during any of these times when Utah was so doing awesome?

He was a candidate for jobs. There were people who reached out for him, but it was not, it wasn't, there was also the thought that he was happy. Yeah, he might have just been happy. He turned some of these things down. Yeah, and River points out too, Andy, it's a very important window for their most expensive asset, year two, for White Underwood. Yeah.

Yeah, and Jason Beck, the offensive coordinator, comes from Utah with Kyle Weddingham. So it's really interesting because that was kind of a package deal last year when Jason Beck goes to Utah from New Mexico with Devon Dampere. Devin Dampier is sticking around at Utah because they got Bryce Underwood at Michigan. They don't need anybody else. So that is just fascinating to me. They bring back pretty good young offensive linemen. You know, that was an interesting situation where when the coaching change, happened. You saw some offensive

linemen hit the portal, but then changed their mind and come back to Michigan. I think the roster's probably close to where it needs to be. We'll see what the receivers, but they kept Andrew Marsh, which is great news for the receiver room. I'm excited to see what they can do.

The John Henry Daily edition, one of the best edge rushers in the country, Utah last year. He comes with Kyle Whittingham. I think there's a really good chance that Michigan is a very good Now throw that schedule back up there, producer river. This schedule is incredibly hard.

They got Oklahoma week two. Big Ten openers, Iowa. Penn State comes to the big house. Iowa comes to the, I'm sorry, Indiana comes to the big house. They go to Oregon. They go to Ohio State at the end of the season. This is a challenging, challenging schedule. But if you're good enough to compete for the national championship,

you're good enough to go 10 and two against this schedule. Well, here's another thing. Michigan won a championship and was a villain when they did it. It's very hard to dislike Kyle Whittingham. Sure. And in fact, and again, we've not gotten total confirmation of what happened at Utah, but I feel pretty comfortable with what I said at the beginning in this segment. If he wins and they're not the best team in the Big 12,

he won. Like, he won that whole thing. he did he certainly did yeah and i think a lot of people are rooting for him because it felt like maybe they didn't appreciate what they had yeah and i'm very very interested just in general of coach at lower level or coach at place that took place to bigger level but not necessarily a place that demands when national championships and and overperforms moves up and that's the same thing with Matt Campbell, too, who could have been on this list. Well, and this is going to be a big challenge for him.

This is going to be a big challenge for Kyle Whittingham because we've not seen him at this level. We've not seen him have to succeed at this level. It's not a given that just because you won at a place that does not have those expectations, but also doesn't give you the same resources, that once you get all the resources, that you will then meet the expectations. But I would argue that Kyle Whittingham has spent his entire career exceeding, expectations for the most part. So I think

there's a good chance he can meet them at Michigan. In Michigan, you can't exceed them because the expectation is a national championship. There's nothing better. So this is his chance, which I'm sure he's been waiting. It's better. But, you know, you know what I mean.

Every year is the expectation of national championship. Yeah. Every year. Yeah, but cool, handsome coach, who has accomplished a lot, goes to new place that was in trouble with an expensive quarterback that isn't a transition period in the program, that you can make the case that Michigan's story arc

is maybe the most interesting in the entire, well, second most interesting behind LSU. Good segue. Good segue. Do we want to go, yeah, let's go with that newcomer Lane Kiffin at LSU.

This is a fascinating situation, fascinating job, the most interesting coach in America. The whole circus last year kept us completely captivated. as he was taking Ole Miss to the playoff, was deciding, do I go to Florida, do I go to LSU, do I stay at Ole Miss?

It was unbelievable theater. The Ole Miss people hate him. The LSU people love him. LSU, meanwhile, got in that position because they hired Brian Kelly after the 2021 season. They'd fired Ed Orgeron two years after he won a national championship. Hired Brian Kelly.

The expectation is he's going to win a national championship. They fire Brian Kelly in year four with a record that at most places would be considered okay. Not okay at LSU. The standard at LSU. And we talked about this when we talked about the standard of Georgia. We talked about the standard at Oregon. The standard at LSU is compete for national championships every single year, win national championships frequently.

And I thought it was interesting because Brian Kelly went on with Dusty Dvority. checking Danny Cannell on Friday. This is the most interesting thing, Andy. We've talked a lot about Lane Kiffin, what he did in the portal, how important it is for him to win out of the gate. But these comments kind of shaped it up a little bit. I'm happy we have them. Let's talk about this.

Yeah. So Brian Kelly, like, pretty sarcastically says, if you ask the people at LSU, I was playing golf 350 days a year and drinking in my office, which he's being sarcastic somewhat, but also when they tried to fire him for cause. They did try to throw some mud at him. And he's like, you know, I tore my rotator cuff in the Florida game when I got hit by a couple of linemen. I have not played golf since then. So I clearly wasn't playing too much golf as the season was unraveling. And what they would say about him, though, was that he wasn't 100% like locked in. No, they definitely will say that. Like that was the thing, like Andy, we,

We hear a lot about what's going on, the undercurrents and the underbelly of the sport and don't talk about it a lot on the show because we don't want to be irresponsible. But I'm saying this because that's what he's referring to. That was out. It was all out there. Absolutely. And Lane Kiffin has done the opposite because even when Brian Kelly got there, yeah, he had the family and the dancing videos.

But there wasn't this constant stream of Brian Kelly embracing Louisiana culture. Brian Kelly embracing LSU. Like we are seeing Lane Kiffin at every parade. We are seeing Lane Kiffin making TikToks with Livy Dunn at the gymnastics meet. We are seeing Lane Kiffin and Kim Mulkey

you know, hamming it up. Like we're seeing all of that. Lane Kiffin is doing the politics part of the job about as well as you can do it. Now he's got to do the coaching part of the job. But I really don't worry

about him doing the coaching part of the job because I just watched what he did at Ole Miss. And if he does what he did at Ole Miss the last two years and maybe a little bit better, they're going to be happy with him. I'm amused because Brian Kelly got hired to win a national championship despite never making it to the national title game in his career. But he made the playoff. And then they fired him for somebody who has never won a power conference before. Now, I don't think that Brian Kelly has.

either because the place he coached that before wasn't in the conference. But yeah, taking Notre Dame to the playoff or to the BCS title game is probably close enough. Yeah. You can make the case. Or maybe this is also a fact that Brian Kelly was a more accomplished and decorated coach resume-wise. Yes. When he was hired at LSU than Lane Kiffin is right now. But I will make the argument that this is a better hire.

The last four years told us that Brian Kelly and. This is actually, I'm not slamming Brian Kelly or LSU for hiring him. I want people to understand when Brian Kelly was hired at the end of 2021, right after the 2021 season. NIL was five months old. No one knew what was going to happen. No one knew how it was going to evolve. So they hired the guy who had won in the old system. Brian Kelly was not made to adapt to the new system.

We learned that over the past few years. Lane Kiffin has adapted to the new system better than anyone. But you didn't necessarily know that at the end of the 2021 season. That was the end of his second year at Ole Miss. You knew he was pretty good. But you didn't know he'd keep getting better, which is what he did. He's gotten better every year as this system has evolved. Yeah. And I would take a coach that has illustrated an ability to exceed expectations or excel in this era over a coach who won a national championship in the past era.

Yes. Unless it's Kirby Smart because he's done both. Kirby Smart, I would say Kirby Smart has succeeded in this era too. Yeah. But Lane has definitely shown he can adapt to this era. and now he's at a place, and this is why he took the job, and I'm going to duck in case there's Ole Miss fans watching this, he's in a place where he probably has more advantages in terms of brand recruiting.

That's, I don't think that's a hot take. So he should theoretically be able to put together better rosters at LSU than he did at Ole Miss, playing against the same teams that he was playing against at Ole Miss. And I actually think that you could make the case that this LSU roster is already better than any roster that exists under Brian Kelly. No? Oh, and Brian Kelly. Yes.

Yes. I mean, I'm not going to say it's better than any Lane Kiff and Ole Miss roster. But yes, I would agree with you on that. And I don't know. Maybe I'm pushing it, but they had Jaden Daniels and Malik neighbors at the same time. So, um. Yeah, Brian Thomas Jr. There's three first round picks right there on their offense.

But their defense was so bad that you're kind of averages out, doesn't it? Yeah. I don't know. But still, in terms of like collective roster, I think I would take, it's really hard to say that out loud because their offense, mine was one of the best offenses in the college football history that year. The defense is real bad.

Collectively, both sides of the ball, I think I would take this roster over any of the other LSU ones during the Brian Kelly era. I would, I would too. I would too. And we haven't seen them play down yet. But I trust, it's because I trust Lane Kiffin to put it together.

and he's earned it. He's earned that trust. He's not earned your trust if he's your coach and somebody's offering another job, but he's earned your trust that he can put together a fricking roster in the transfer portal NILA. Yeah. Now, what's the hard part?

Winning games or getting good players? I still don't know which one's harder. It's, let's throw that schedule up there again. This is not an easy schedule. Like, we're going to say, oh, they're going to kill Clems. they'll beat Auburn, they'll beat Tennessee, they'll beat Kentucky.

We don't know any of that. And we do know that A&M's going to be hard. We know the at Ole Miss game is going to be wild. What is October 3rd's logo? Is that more head state? I believe that is more head state. Or is it McNee's? It might be McNee's.

It might be McNee's. He has the cowboy. I don't know. I don't know that logo. Let's guess the logo. If it's McNee's, they've changed their logo. All right, so what's your guess?

My guess is more Head State. You're right. I'm going to go with Moorhead State also. It's McNeese. It is McNee's. They changed the logo. Ah, the colors, yeah. Okay, so I'm looking on LSU schedule.

They have the old logo on the schedule with the, with the rider on the horse. Yeah. But Andy, I think this was a wonderful segue to the next person in the next category because LSU plays them in week one. Well, we have another newcomer and we do still have to, yeah. And we still have to talk about it. It's going to be an hour and 40 minutes is what you're saying. Yeah. We still have to talk about what Lane Kiffin's expectations are, which, you know the expectations are for Lane Kiffin at LSU?

Win the national title every year. Yeah. But I also think there. I'm not exaggerating. I do think that if he makes the playoff, he's a hero already. I agree. If he makes a playoff this year, there will be. they'll be deliriously happy.

I don't think he has to win the national title this year. I think he has to make progress toward the national title. And then win it by year four, because that's what Nick Saban did, and that's what Ed Orchon did. Yeah, making the playoff in year one will appease people for a year. But then once you do that, your standard reverts right back to,

well, we're LSU. Everybody else won titles here, but Brian Kelly, go do it. And that's okay. It's the one place where I really don't. don't begrudge them their high standards. They've earned it. So we'll see if Lane Kiffin can meet it. But yeah, I think you can make the playoff.

And I agree with you. If he just makes the playoff, I think they're pretty happy with that this year. Let us go to one other newcomer. We talked about Kyle Whittingham earlier, now a guy who has to play against Kyle Whittingham. And that is Matt Campbell, who comes to Penn State from Iowa State.

And this was a weird coaching search, Ari. This is one of those that took a lot of twists and turns. You know, there was weird, all this Kalin-de-Bore noise from Penn State, but not from Kalin-de-Bore's camp. And it turns out, you know, Cailen-Abor came out and said that there was nothing there. Campbell is one that if you told me on the day they fired James Franklin, they're going to hire Matt Campbell.

I'd have been like, that's a great hire, great job. But I would assume it would have been done the day after Iowa State's last game, and it just quite worked out that way. Yeah. Matt Campbell, the newcomer, and there's so many other interesting newcomers. You have Alex Golish at Auburn. You have John Summerall in Florida. I don't even list the new hires.

But this one is interesting because Penn State was in the college football playoff semifinal two years ago in a drive away from playing for a national title. And there might not be a elite-level programs fan base that is more starved to make it to the championship game or to win a national title than Penn State fans. It's been a long time. It has been a long, long, and 1986 was a long time ago. Now they had some really good teams in the 90s as well.

I was not bored. That's, that just kill you. You didn't see that festival, not even as an infant. You didn't see the hurricanes walk in. I might have been, I might have been like growing inside my mom at the time. That's a weird. I feel so old right now.

You know who was born but barely? Matt Campbell is 46. He's a year younger than I am. So he was probably watching that as a kid at home. I was conceived based on the timeline of this whole thing. Good to know. Congrats to Ari's parents on that. Congrats on this next mom and dad.

Yeah. But Matt Campbell, so 46 years old, he was, hold on, I got to find the record. I want to read it to you exactly. He's been head coach at Toledo and I. He's actually been a head coach for a long, long time when you consider how young he is. He was head coach at Toledo for five seasons and then the head coach at Iowa State for 10 seasons. So 15 seasons already is a head coach. But his record at Iowa State in 10 seasons was 72 and 55.

When you look at that compared to every other coach who's coached at Iowa State, he's the best who has ever coached there and it is not close. So you can look at that record and say, well, I don't know how good he was. if you have any idea of how hard it is to win there, he was awesome there. And I think that good resume bullet point is best coach in program history at the place you took him from.

Yes. But again, another interesting case of leveling up and going to a place that has insanely high standards. And the standard, I don't think last season dropped the standard. If nothing else, it raised the standard. It raised the standard. You fired James Franklin, who had had all these great seasons,

but they weren't quite good enough. And then the second he has a bad year, you fire him. So you are saying, we have to be great every year. We have to continue moving toward a national title. They were tired of the plateau. And it's interesting,

I used to write all the time, Ari, that Penn State people just want to feel something. They're tired of being on this 10-win-a-year plateau. Well, they felt something last year, and it felt pretty awful. I think for the time being, at least for this first year,

they will be invigorated and excited about a change of scenery because James Franklin was there for so long. But I think that Matt Campbell's leash is shorter than we think. He's got to come in there and win now. He does. You don't fire James Franklin.

You don't pay him all that money unless you feel like your next guy can get you where you want to go. Otherwise, just keep James Franklin. you don't want to be a single game worse than Franklin. And that is a really hard thing because nine and three is pretty good. Right. Because James Franklin was in these semifinals of the college football

playoff the year before last. These semifinals. So, but Rocco Beck comes in. He's a very good quarterback. You know, they retained some important pieces. They retain some very good players. And that's the thing. It feels like they kept most of what they wanted to keep.

Now, some players did follow Franklin to Virginia Tech, but it feels like Matt Campbell did a really good job of retaining people that he wanted to retain and then brought what he wanted to bring from Iowa State. Now, he didn't port the entire team from Iowa State because you've got to, you've got to be able to level them up. It's got to be people you believe can succeed in the Big Ten. But this should be a fairly old team that knows what it's doing right off the bat, like immediately.

Yep. And I would expect that. Like they're always very well coached and he's a very easy person to play for. I also am very fascinated by Virginia Tech this year because they had an infusion of talent from a team that wins 10 games out of the Big Ten. And I think they might be sneaky pretty good

and they're your first year. Yeah, and Franklin reinvigorated, absolutely. But Campbell now gets his chance. And this is similar to what we talked about with Kyle Whittingham in Michigan. we've always wondered what's this going to look like when this guy gets a chance to do it when he has all these resources

when he has a capability of putting together one of the best rosters in the country and it was interesting is Campbell never seemed to want to swim in the really shark infested waters recruiting guys but now he has to probably had to do with the old era of it yeah but he has to be a shark now

yeah he has to be and maybe part of that too is out of his hands, but you're going to have to be in bidding wars with people and you're going to have to win something. Yeah, it's great that you can find Rock Purdy. It's great that you can find Dominique Orange. It's great that you can find Will McDonald, these great players that came through. Yeah, Brise Hall.

Like, but you got, you got to not just unearth hidden gyms. You got to beat Ohio State for players Ohio State once. You got to beat Michigan for players Michigan once. Like that's the next part of the challenge. And in October 17th or 16th, whatever day it is, you have two newcomers playing each other. And I think that that result of that game, which is why it made our list of most juiciest games of the 2026 season. But I am, I feel like there's less hot seat this offseason and more intrigue. And this is like the headline of it.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Like all these guys are perfectly fine. But like Matt Campbell has to start strong. because otherwise, why did you fire James Franklin? That's going to be the refrain over and over and over again. The good news for Matt Campbell is we talked about how these Big Ten schedules in an 18-team league are not entirely balanced.

He got a nice draw. Sure, going to Michigan's hard, going to Washington's hard, getting USC at your place is hard. But I think if you asked Michigan, if you asked USC, if you asked Oregon, they'd go, yeah, our schedule is much harder. If you asked Ohio State, our schedule is much harder. They got the good draw at Penn State. Yeah, they did.

Although that every other week run of South USC, Michigan, Washington, in the middle there's going to be kind of tricky. At least it's not every week. That's all I know. Two of them are on the road. All right, Ari. We go to our juiciest topic, our juiciest category. And maybe we're being a little dramatic with the title of it.

A little, but only a little. It's the do or die guys. Doer die mode. Win now. We have waited. Now is your chance. Now is the time for various reasons. For various reasons, we either need to see you winning now because you've been building to this or we need to see you winning now because you need to prove to us you can win again.

But you got to win. and we will start in Los Angeles with Lincoln Riley, just went nine and three, has spent his time at USC essentially saying, I need more time, I need to build, I need to build, what I inherited wasn't very good.

That rhetoric seems to be over, Ari, like starting with the loss to TCU in the bowl game, and we made fun of him after he said this, but the more I watch now, the more I understand why he said what he said. He said the window's open now. And then they signed, you know, they had signed this big class.

That's the number one class. They go to the portal. They go get Gary Patterson. Like you lose Danlin as your defensive coordinator to Penn State, which is disappointing because he's going to a conference, essentially a peer. But you go get Gary Patterson. Like that's a big hire. And so this is the time for Lincoln Riley.

Like this is a hard big 10 schedule, but he got out of the, Notre Dame game. None of us is particularly happy about that. None of your fans are even particularly happy about that. But you got out of the Notre Dame game. So now is your chance. Oh, by the way, you still play Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana. As we progress further into this list of do or die,

we'll have to explain the concept of die. Does die mean fired? And if so, I think that there is still a chance that Lincoln Riley could die. They would owe Lincoln Riley so much money, but it would essentially be the same decision as Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M, as James Franklin at Penn State, as Brian Kelly at LSU. They go eight and four? If they go eight and four, I think there would be serious conversations about that.

Yeah. Like we're not, like we can't, I mean, we say the same thing about him every offseason. You know, I didn't. I believe this, but I didn't really say it much about Brian Kelly before last season. I thought if things went a little weird, I didn't think they'd go. as quickly as they did. I didn't think it would happen as quickly as it did.

I certainly didn't think it would happen to Franklin the way it did. In the middle of season, yeah. Yeah. But now that those two have happened, I would believe this. And you might know the top of your head,

but do they have them, does he have a mitigate to, I mean, a duty to mitigate. Private school, we don't know the con, we haven't seen the contract. So, I mean,

but that could still be in there. We don't know. I believe so. It is a massive buyout, massive. that becomes less massive if he gets another job. Right, right. So very similar situation contractually to Mike Norville at Florida State,

not the same situation at all in the field because USC was a good team last year. Yeah, but I'm tired of good. I'm tired of, is this the year? We do say the same thing about this program year over year over year. And I think that there are some things to grab onto. The recruiting class is something to grab onto. We just cannot get to next office. off season and say, well, the recruiting classes

is in year two now. Now it's time. No, no. There's no, like you, you got to show us. You've got to cash in the chips now. Like, you need to make the playoff. This is your five. Yeah.

Five. Year five. Five, Bueller. Five times. We've done that five times. Yeah. It's, now if they go nine and three, there's a version of nine and three. where you're like, yeah, they're pretty good.

They just kind of got screwed in a game or something like that. That's a little bit different. But if they're seven and five, if they're eight and four, I don't think there's any goodwill left with the family. They say, no, absolutely not. We'll know on September 26th, Andy, when they host Oregon. They'll probably be four and oh. We'll know that day, whether they're it or not.

And I don't even mean they have to win, but we will know when our, they need to be competitive with them in that game, whether you'll see it with your eyes. did they do it or they didn't, you're going to know it. And then when you do know it in early or late September, there's a lot of season left for people to get antsy. Well, that's what happened at LSU last year is they knew it pretty quick. And then it was now what?

Number eight juiciest game on our list for a reason. Yes, yes. And it's funny because even Oregon fans were like, why would you have that one? What is that? Because it's not juicy to you, Oregon. It's juicy to USC. Exactly, exactly.

Juicy to me. Yeah, it is Lincoln Riley's chance. Yeah, it is Lincoln Riley's chance to say, here is a team that we are confident and is going to make the playoff, and here's how we stack up against that team. At home.

You got to look the part. You got to be the part. Yep, I agree. And, you know, I think, because I keep saying this, Lincoln Riley is a young coach still. It feels like he's been around forever, but he was,

I believe he was 29 when he got hired as the O.C. at Oklahoma, when he got hired from East Carolina. He's still such a young guy. There's still so much time ahead of him. And I keep thinking he's going to evolve in a way that he does eventually become one of the best coaches in the country. He's 42 years old right now.

So again, I'm a geyser, compared to Lincoln Riley. So a sexy one. But that's fine. He's a good looking guy, yeah. Yeah, and he's rich. The question is, does he stay rich because USC keeps paying him because he's making the playoff or is he rich for a different reason?

That's the question right now. And I still think he has it in him to be one of those all-time great head coaches. The start was so amazing, the way he works with quarterbacks. But he's got to prove it. He's got they've got to be tougher. They've got to be better on the lines of scrimmage. But if they can do it, this is here to show us. Ari, let us head across the country to another do-or-die situation

for a completely different situation, completely different reason. Lincoln Riley has never gotten over the hump. Dabo Sweeney has gotten over the hump twice. He's won two national titles. he is the only coach in the previous era of college football to take a team that was not in the cool kids club and put it in the cool kids club. The only one.

Yeah, the only one. But it would appear that Davosweeney is not equipped for this era of college football. They did make the playoff in 2024 by having a strong run at the end of the season, beating SMU in the ACC championship game. But they fell off the table last year. They were not competitive

in games against good teams. And frankly, we're equipped from an athletic perspective to potentially be very good, which is the moment of the point part. Three first round picks off this team. I think that's a certainty, isn't it? I don't know.

We're not sure of T.J. Parker, but it certainly seems like Peter was in Avion Terrell. But it could be two or three first round picks off this team, off the defense alone. And that record with that level of talent on the team is shocking, shocking. So now, I think before the last few months, I would have said Davosweeney is one of those guys who would say, you will have to fire me and pay me every cent you owe me. I am not giving one inch on this. I will continue to do this my way.

I know I'm right. And I know there's people at Clemson who feel like he's that stubborn. I don't know about you, Ari, but I have gotten a sense in the last few months that stubbornness is sort of fading away. I think the going after Pete Golding was a really interesting little window into his mind. Yeah. Because it is Davosweeney saying,

maybe my way isn't going to work. Because I don't believe that the going after Pete Golding thing was about turning Pete Golding into the NCAA and Pete Golding getting in trouble with the NCAA. I believe that that was Davosweeney going, I don't think the NCAA can do anything about this. And I'm going to make them say they have no power. And then when they admit they have no power, I am going to say, you know what? Maybe I need to do things differently. and the idea of Davosweeney saying to himself, I need to do things differently,

well, he wasn't singing that tune for the last few years. It feels like he's more open to that now. Yeah. I mean, he is going to have to adapt if he is going to be there for the next three years. Like, I am genuinely curious and I don't know. But if Clemson is Clemson from last year again, is he I think

I think at that point he might go to them and be willing to make a deal so like we're at the where he's he's the ambassador and and all that if he can't

if it looks like it did last year if there's no improvement I think he might understand that that is a sign now I just mentioned that it feels like he's a little more open-minded he's come around to the idea

that he might need to handle things a little bit differently. That said, it looks like Christopher Fizzina's going to be their starting quarterback. That's the guy who backed up Kade Klovenick for the last two years. They didn't go out and get one in the portal. Now they got some freshmen too. When he needed to hire an offensive coordinator, so they fired Garrett Riley, they need to hire an offensive coordinator. He hires Chad Morris, who was the guy who elevated Clemson back when he hired him,

I think in 2011. But Chad Morris has not been ultra successful in the last few years. And it felt like, hey, trying to get the band back together instead of going and finding the person who could really run the best offense in 2006. Now, maybe we're wrong about that. Maybe Chad Morris comes back and is like the guy who took over with Taj Boyd back in the day. But it's an interesting situation because they didn't go get a quarterback. and the guy you're elevating to the starting job is, or we think they're elevating to the starting job,

is the guy who couldn't beat out Kate Klubnick, who wasn't very good last year. Yep. I guess there is a somewhat of a saving grace too that the quarterback that they're turning to was like a top 100 player nationally. Like, it's not like he's like some... Everybody they sign, every quarterback they sign is top 100.

You know how I yet. That's not new. But I feel like this is the more advanced version of legendary coach that was viewed as a top coach or top three coach in college football, crossing over into the new era and not being equipped to coach in this era, and a program that owes him the world getting fed up. Because it doesn't matter what you do or how many titles you win. Eventually, things go sour, and the expiration date could be 2026 if things don't turn around.

Now, I don't think they have to win the ACC. I don't think they have to make the play. off, I think they just have to be better than they were last season. Yeah. That won't make everybody at Clemson happy because they've come to expect some pretty big things. But I think that's fine. If they're better than last year, that's fine. Now, obviously, going to LSU for Lane Kiffin's debut is a challenge.

I don't like having to go see JKS on a Friday night in Berkeley and then turning around the next weekend and having to play the Canes. That's not going to be fun. But all in all, it's a lot. a manageable schedule and if you're better than last year you should be get the 10 wins yeah you can be 9 and 3 and I'd be okay with that

I can live with that yeah I guess be competitive in the games against the really good teams like that's it don't be blown out I'd be fine with that on September 5th buddy yeah the Lane Kiffin part that that can be bad but

again it's dabbo and he has earned some benefit of the doubt. He's been really, really good. But the problem is the last few years have taken away most of the benefit of the doubt. So he's got to get better or they're going to have to make a hard decision. And when I say they're going to have to make a hard decision, I'm not just not just the athletic department, not Graham Neff, the AD. I think Davos Sweeney himself is going to have to, if they are as bad as they were last season or worse,

he's going to have to look in the mirror. And I think he, but I think he's then looking in the mirror a little bit more lately. And so that gives me some confidence that it could get better. Yep. A little bit.

One more do-or-die situation. And this is not one that I think anybody's going to get fired. But I think it's a, it's a very interesting situation. And I want to go back to something I said on the show a few weeks ago,

Well, we'll start. Okay. Our guy Chris Lowe at On 3 had a really interesting interview with Josh Heiple a couple weeks ago. The thing everybody grabbed onto is Josh Heiple saying that he thought a 2014 playoff would make sense. That was kind of a throwaway quote at the end of the story. The thing I thought was the most interesting was the one at the beginning of the story where Josh Hepple said something that I had said on our show a week earlier. Now, I don't think this is because Josh Heepel was listening to the show. I think this is how he feels. And I was very interested to see that he agreed with this sentiment. I said on the show a couple weeks ago, I think Josh Heipel got Tennessee out of hell too early, and it caused the expectations to be ratcheted up too high, too fast. That if it had taken another year or two to get them to the playoff, the Tennessee fans would still be overjoyed with Josh Heipel. And now they're kind of, they're not out on him.

they still love the fact that he got into the playoff, and I think they're still optimistic, but they're side-eyeing him quite a bit more than they used to. I think you are very appreciative of a coach that turned you from a dysfunctional program into a functional one. And when you're dysfunctional, you're just dying to be functional. He accomplished that already. But a fan base that's as robust and passionate as Tennessee,

can only be satisfied with functional for so long. Right. And I think we're at the point where they're done being functional and they want to be really good. And they have not been really good in a long time. We're talking kind of mid-Philip, former era was the last time. They're really good.

I was a beat writer covering the 2001 team. That 2001 Tennessee team, which I believe ended up winning 10 games, was one of the best collections of talent I've ever seen. They were awesome. And they should not have lost LSU in the SEC championship game. They shouldn't have lost to Georgia in the Hobnail boot game.

That team should have ended up playing Miami for the national title that year. I don't know if they would have beaten them, but they were probably the only team of the country that could compete with that team. Tennessee hadn't had a team like that since then. Even the playoff team two years ago wasn't that? No, 25 years. 25 years, Ari. And maybe part of that, too, is why Heipel gets into hotter, water, faster. It's the over-delivering early, and then, of course, the 25-year pressure cooker of dying to be.

Yeah. I would argue that the year before, Hinden Hooker, the last year with Hinden Hooker, where they won 10 games. They got, Hoker got hurt against South Carolina. But that was a great team. that's probably the best team Tennessee's had since that 0-1 team. 25 years, yeah. Yeah.

And then they make the playoff the following year because they had a really salty defense. I don't know if it was necessarily because of the offense, but they had a good running game, salty defense. This is a kind of rubber meets the road year for Josh Heipel. Yeah. They need to be better than they were last year. They need to be in the mix for the playoff. I think the problem last year, and look,

we knew it could be difficult because of what happens. happened in the spring with Nico leaving the whole Joey Aguilar thing now I think everyone was pleasantly surprised by how well Joey Aguilar ran the offense and unpleasantly surprised by what a step back the defense now they bring in Jim Knowles to run the defense this is the year they need to be competitive for the player I don't even think they have to make it but they need to be competitive and like when you play Vanderbilt at the end of the season you can't get blown out by Vanderbilt yeah you can't yeah I think that being competitive or beating Bama would be a pretty big situation for him.

You want them to be, the home game September 26 against Texas is going to be massive because you cannot get blown out because everything's a measuring stick. It's not, I think so many times on the show and everywhere else that you've listened to to talk to about college football,

it's always about record, record, record, record. Yeah. And I think we lose sight on the importance of fans aren't stupid. And if you are outclassed by an elite team, it doesn't matter what your record is. If they know you're a second class citizen, and that's what bothers them. It's not that you're nine and three.

It's that you're nine and three, and you got your ass kick against really good teams you played. They cannot get their ass kicked. Well, as interesting as that Texas game is, and it is very interesting. The next week, Heipel's former offensive coordinator, Alex Goalish, comes in with Auburn.

And you got to win that. You got to see, you get two first year coaches in a row. You get Golish in Auburn, you get Ryan Silverfield at Arkansas. That Alabama game, you know, we probably could have had Cail and DeBore in this doer die section, too. Yeah.

Oh, yeah, for sure. And then Shane Beaver in South Carolina. This is the next game. We added coaches in here that we hadn't had this conversation. Yeah, we just had this conversation about DeBoer. Yeah. DeBoer enough. But yes, he certainly would be on here.

And of course, John Summerall and Alex Golich would have been fine newcomers to talk about, too. In fact, this episode was an hour and a half, but we can do another hour and a half on on Tuesday, just doing it again with nine new people, because we could. But I think that Hypole is interesting. Like, I am interested in this. And I don't know where Tennessee fans are going to land on him or ultimately how good they're going to be. But I think that the time to be excellent again has come.

And if they're not excellent this year, I think his next offseason is going to be a long one. And it's so fascinating to me because for so long, you know, Tennessee, went through the wilderness for a while. You know, Lane Kiffin leaves. They hire Derek Dooley. Then you have the Butch Jones years. Then the Jeremy Pruitt one's like,

for so long, they just wanted competence. They wanted to be competent every year. Josh Heppel has made them competent every year. But this is the, I don't even think it's one of the most passionate fan base in the country. It might be the most passionate fan base in the country. Yeah.

In terms of, of they love you so much, they're crazy. I think Tennessee's up there. Tennessee's probably number one. What came for us? Are you the love? Yes. Which one?

They really, I mean, this is a fan base that obsesses over its team. Probably, look, Alabama fans love their team. Ohio State fans love their team. I have always felt like Tennessee fans are just more obsessive about their team. And I think that's how you get from. from God, can we just have a competent team to, all right, I'm sick of just having a competent team. Yeah, fascinating.

Fascinating stuff. And we'll break it down all year. Trust me. Oh, yeah. Yeah, this is going to be a really fun college football season coming up. We have a lot of angles left to hit this offseason. We'll have you completely ready by the time. Toe meets leather.

But, hey, this week, probably get a little more basketball. because we got conference championships, we got tournaments, we got Selection Sunday coming up this Sunday. The best weekend in American sports. I would say the best weekend in sports in the world is coming up. First weekend in the NCAA tournament. So a lot of fun stuff coming. Thank you for watching.

Please subscribe to the On3 YouTube page if you haven't already. And subscribe to us on wherever podcast platform you choose. And we will be here every. day in the off season, breaking it down for you. We'll talk to you tomorrow.