Andy & Ari On3 - The transfer portal is about to POP open | Predicting Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings

Episode Date: December 3, 2024

You’ve had Wendy’s Nuggs dipped in sauce. But have you had them covered in sauce? Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker, try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. We’re also sponsored by Rhoback, the makers of the most comfortable and stylish hoodies, polos, q-zips, shorts and joggers. Use the code ANDY on Rhoback.com for 20 percent off for all new customers. That’s spelled RHOBACK.com. That’s 20 percent off all performance hoodies, polos and shorts with code ANDY. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES(0:00-2:20) PaniniAmerica.net(2:21-24:11) Transfer Portal Preview(24:12-25:00) Rhoback(25:01-28:49) Politicking for CFP Teams(28:50- 44:15) Home Game for Tennessee in CFP?(44:16-56:43) Continuing the discussion on CFP Rankings(56:44-58:06) Download PrizePicks(58:07-1:19:13) Coaching Carousel Discussion; New Era of CFB(1:19:14-1:20:24) Conclusion The transfer portal doesn’t open for six days, but players are already announcing their intentions to enter.   The headliners Monday were USC quarterback Miller Moss, N.C. State receiver KC Concepcion and Nebraska defensive lineman Jimari Butler. The teams they might consider are already leaking out. Meanwhile, the flips continue ahead of Wednesday’s National Signing Day. Later, Andy and Ari will try to predict Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings. This will be the last ranking before the one that counts on Sunday. How close will it be to the final ranking? Next, Andy and Ari discuss the potential of the job openings at North Carolina, Purdue, West Virginia and UCF. These are very different jobs than they were when the last people who held them took them. Watch us on YouTube instead! https://youtube.com/live/j5aNGLw8HXQ Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

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Highly addictive. I'm just pulling. I was doing a little late night cataloging of my inventory and as I was watching the Monday night game and I came across this bad boy. We got a rookie cracked ice Jerry Judy here. That's great. You say nine and we're just constantly shuffle and move moving. I'm obsessed with this stuff. I'm obsessed with it. It's a it's very healthy for me. I think

Andy, I'm glad I it does. It hits all of your interests at once. Because you love college football, you love football in general, you love markets that move quickly, that you can kind of place a bet because because what buying a thing, invest what I was gonna say, buying a rookie card is essentially placing a bet on that player or hoping you pull a rookie card is placing a bet on that player.

I'm actually trying to acquire a Patrick Mahomes rookie patch autograph card as we speak speak in a big trade. And that card goes in a safe and, you know, stashed away for a long time. So it is interesting if you actually go look at some of like, and I don't know if it's quite as drastic since COVID, but there've been times where like collectibles have outpaced the S and P 500 in terms of like

return on investment. So it is just cool to try to prospect, try to pick players you think are gonna be good, buy pieces of their memorabilia and hold onto it. Like it's just a fun way to, you know, have a hobby that also could be guised as investing, which is how I fool my wife into letting me spend all this money.

So it's great and it's my favorite thing to do in the entire world and I'm so happy that Panini's here with us. So thanks to Panini. You don't have to fool anyone Ari. We know you love Panini. Go to PaniniAmerica.net start grabbing boxes, ripping packs. It is a lot of fun. Let's do the show. fun. Let's do the show. Welcome to Andy and Ari on three presented by Wendy. And you know, it's getting saucy Ari, not just the nugs at Wendy's, the transfer portal, which doesn't even open for six more days, but we already have quite a bit of knowledge and news about people who will go into the portal. And yesterday some of the big names, Miller Moss, who was USC starting quarterback for most of the year, Jamari Butler from Nebraska, who was supposed to be Nebraska's best returning defensive lineman.

If you like, if you saw that Ohio State game, you're like, oh boy, this is a guy that just about anybody would want. Who else we got? We got we got quite a few guys. It's it's been conception from NC State. That's a that's a pretty big one. And Pete Naco is our guy at on three is really, really killing it. So if you're not following him on Twitter, I encourage you to do so. And it is like, you know, we were talking about Panini and investing

and all that stuff, but like one of my favorite games to Andy is trying to project or just like picture, like how coveted is one, are these players going to be like Miller Moss, for instance? I think he's a perfect example of this. It's like, you know, he, he played, you know, I think pretty solid football this year before being benched, but there was a point in time Not too long ago where we got a question on this show if USC's offense is better without Caleb Because it runs, you know the whole offense runs through the quarterback in a way that isn't so dependent on just the quarterback and

You know, I thought it was insane at the time. But at the same time it was like Well, I mean because that's true for every there's no offense That's better without Caleb Williams at the same time. It was like, uh, well, I mean, cause that's true for every, there's no offense that's better without Caleb Williams at the college level. But the point is, is that there was a point in, uh, the not so distant past where Miller Moss looked like the perfect ball distributor. And there are plenty of teams that just need a competent quarterback who can make throws and not make a ton of crippling mistakes in every game. And you know, it's, it's interesting because like even in the NFL, you know, how many teams have quarterbacks that can't even get a first down like at the highest level, like, I mean,

you're looking at the Giants right now, the Jaguars are struggling with Mac Jones. You know, I hate to say it, but the Browns with Deshaun Watson, like if you look at what the receivers have done since he got injured, like the, the quarterback is such an essential piece of the, of the equation here. And if you can just get a guy who doesn't, they don't have to be a star, but just somebody you think can run your offense, the values of those players could be very inflated. So like, what, like what is the market for a guy like Miller Moss, someone who got benched at the end of the season at his own team, and then like, look at the

teams that, you know, are reportedly being considered right now, it's like, is he an upgrade at Auburn? Is he a huge upgrade at Michigan? You know, obviously I think he is at both places. You know, Iowa, like, I mean, there, there are places that don't have quarterbacks at all that might be willing to pony up just to get somebody like this into their program. So, uh, yeah. And like, too, it's like position scarcity is also interesting to me.

Like, is this a good year to enter the portal just for your position? Even if you're happy where you are, does your position this year pay a premium? Like the defensive tackle, I think would pay a premium. Yeah. And it's like almost like the thing that is we don't talk about all the time is, you know, and this happens in pro sports, but it's like, even if you're happy at your school, like, and you're playing, you're a starter, if you think you can increase your income at the right time, if your agent or whoever's guiding you, you know, finds that the market for your position is worth more than you're being compensated at the

place that you're being, you're happy at, like, are you going to start seeing portal moves that are just straight money moves and I know people will be like well it's already happening it's already happening and I'm sure it is but I think a lot of times it's in conjunction with it not working at where they are like what about things that are going perfectly for you where you are do you do you abruptly leave and go to a place out of nowhere because you can increase your market value so like this is all uncharted territory, but sessions we're gonna have to have.

And it gets people got like, Jeremiah Smith, Smith tweeted yesterday, the Ohio State receiver. And so like Rob asked this question in the chat, as soon as we started the show, Jeremiah Smith really gonna hit the portal. The guy tweeted yesterday, I realized there's a Reddit screenshot out there of him liking an Instagram reel that called Ryan Day and F, but then he very quickly unliked it. But he tweeted yesterday and just massive attention on it,

because all it says is when you value and respect something, you give everything for it. That's it. That's all it says. And it's essentially everybody in the replies like come to my school, come to my school, come to my like the first, the most relevant reply that my ex serves up to me is some guy saying, do you value DJ Lagway?

Like, are we this little like crazy talk at this point, Ari, because this guy is the best receiver in the country at the school that is pumping receivers into the first round over and over and over again. Like, I, I would think he's fine. But it's how this how how crazy this makes everybody is the man can just tweet and All of a sudden baboom like well It's an interesting case study because like I don't want to you know We on this show we try to live in reality and you know

I don't know what he what kind of mood he was in or what he was liking on Twitter or whatever for Instagram But let's just use him as an example again. don't clip this or say we said this is happening. I just want to use it as an example. Um, if Jeremiah Smith, a person who is at a college that has routinely made. First round draft picks at his position and he is two years away from the NFL. And he finds that the receiver market is, is offering more for his position. Then Ohio state is currently paying him again, 1000% hypothetical for somebody like Jeremiah Smith, who I think could go to Navy and be a first round pick.

Do you think that it makes sense for people in his position, even people who are already Ohio state legends in a lot of his position, even people who are already Ohio State legends in a lot of people's eyes, people who are at the place that are perfect for their NFL development and at also a place that, you know, should be competing at the highest level. Is it going to be smart? Not now, maybe now or in the future for players like that who are already perfectly content to go make

more money at this stage in their life. I think if you're somebody like him, you have to think about the content, the contented aspect of it. If you are content, probably stay content because he, he will be, he would be a first rounder anywhere he plays, which I realize is probably an argument to consider other places, but he's going to make obscene amounts of money. He's already doing well. My guess is Ohio State understands his value and will make sure that he is compensated commensurate with his value.

So I don't know that I want to hop around too much if I'm somebody like that. Yeah, and also too, like the likelihood that like, I don't know, I guess desperation meter and money paid out probably is a huge piece to this. But if you're at a place like Ohio State or Tennessee or Florida already, and you're really good in our producing, like, I just feel like the likelihood of you being outbid by another team like that's probably relatively small. But that said, what do we know about rich people? There's no such thing as too much or enough. And I think part of the reason why some people are very wealthy is because they are obsessed with the accumulation aspect of this, um, and not necessarily the need for it.

And if I am somebody who has a generational talent, the way that Jeremiah Smith does, like, I don't know that I would begrudge him for trying to maximize his income potential, even at this stage of his life. So, uh, that said, you know, you have to have an agent and, you know, a coach and, you know, parents to, you know, weigh whether or not taking an extra few thousand dollars now is important enough to like risk your draft stuff. But again, like he's going to get I don't think you're already in a position and you're pretty sure you're already in a position to be a first round draft pick.

I don't think squeezing every penny out of the situation is necessarily wise. I think the reward isn't worth the risk. Right. The juice isn't worth the squeeze. Now we did mention another receiver, Casey Concepcion at NC State. This is a situation where we know this guy's really good. There are some receiver desperate teams out there and And you put him on that, you know, any of those teams, like imagine if Casey Concepcion played for Penn State right now, like you can't do this. They can't pick somebody up for the, for the playoff run. But imagine if he was on their team right now, what would that change? Yeah. And it's like, you look at the logos there. Um, and you know, I don't know that Alabama or

Auburn jump out to me, but like maybe a place like Colorado would be interesting, but like Penn State, you're going to lose a bunch of good receivers. Yeah. Is Wester gone after this year? I believe I don't know that. I don't know that eligible. I don't know that he's necessarily decided yet. By the way, very underrated player like there is a lot of attention and rightfully so on Travis Hunter, like Wester just produces every single game at a

very high level. But like I tweeted about this this conception last night, Andy. I was like, okay, Penn State, you know, you know what to do, you know, because it's like that's the number one criticism that I have of their current roster. And, you know, we can talk all we want about like James Franklin.

And, you know, has he turned a corner? He's faking puns He's walking with a little swag like today Did he give birth to a receiver in the last few weeks that I'm unaware of like I don't know like that Right, you know you can ultimately change the fate of that team Because they're going to be in a game where they need to make plays in the passing game And if they don't have people getting open then I don't how much, you know, shitty talks in a press conference. So, um, but like this is the step, right? Like also too, being in this expanded playoff field and having

an opportunity to compete at the highest level, like Penn State is probably going to learn a lot about itself, right? And I'm sure that, you know, they know already that they don't, that they need a receiver. And I, and I'm assuming that they knew this, you know, coming into the year, but you get a taste of making the playoff, making the big 10 championship game. It's like, how do you take the next step in the progression of, of your program? You address your dire needs in the portal. And like my hope for Penn State is that they go out and get this kid. I hope that Penn State can close because the

number one thing that I've written about over the last 15 years, when it comes to Penn State is that they go out and get this kid. I hope that Penn State can close because the number one thing that I've written about over the last 15 years when it comes to Penn State is that they've always been four players away from winning a national title. So go get those players. You need to go get them. And in the past, you had to go beat Ohio State to New Jersey for a five-star running back. And it's not as hard anymore. It's more expensive, but it's not as hard.

I think they'll get this. Why can't Penn State go get this kid? They can also. Micah Hudson from Texas Tech. Now he was it. Yeah, he's not like KJ Casey concept. You know, Casey concept. You own is a demonstrated proven commodity. He's a good wide receiver. We've seen it against good competition. Micah Hudson was a five star who got to Texas Tech and unlike fellow five stars, Cam Coleman, Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams, he did not blow up immediately. He was, I believe, down the list, sixth on the team in targets according to our friend Max Olson at ESPN

sixth sixth on the team in targets according to our friend Max Olson of the SPN last year. So he's not. Proven, but the potential is there. This was the obviously the highest ranked recruit in in Texas text class. So that's another case where you've got potential at a position of need for so many like is receiver the one where the we're going to say the most teams need somebody right now. You know what I think has happened. I think what's happened is is that we have come to a place in the sport where there have been so many good receivers in the last few years that it has almost

taken center stage for me like where would you. Rank the receiver position in terms of importance in college football like would you do defensive tackle quarterback first well and then so I quarterbacks one. And then I I kind of lump. I think there's four positions that you that you lump into the next group and

that I guess them. Yeah, sure. Left tackle. Uh offensive tackle in general. Yeah, offensive tackle. Uh defensive tackle edge rusher and one more and uh corner corner. Exactly. But I think receiver is now equal on that or at least wide receiver one. Now you can find guys that fit into certain roles, like a really good slot receiver. And those are, I think are a little bit easier to find, but like a legit wide receiver one who can play multiple spots,

who can get open from multiple spots. I think you have to have one of those and not everybody has one. It's the guys who turn teams that can't move the ball into explosive teams. It's the guys that you can throw the ball to in 50, 50 situations and they turn them into the 70 thirties. Um, yeah. And you know, if you look back and I'm still kind of amused by this, but like

last year's college football playoff, if you look at the receivers at Texas had and you look at the receivers at Texas had, and you look at the receivers that Washington had, like the team that ended up winning the national championship didn't. I mean, they, they, they had some nice players, but they didn't have any of those, like they didn't have Romo Dunze and Jaylen Polk, you know what I mean? They didn't have Xavier worthy on their team. They didn't have AD Mitchell.

Like most of the teams in the top five, seven last year, uh, had those big time, like Marvin Harrison was on Ohio state, you know, Malik neighbors was, you know, I mean, like those guys are really, really important. And like to have nobody, you can get open to getting somebody like that. I think takes your offense from 80th to 30th, like just in the snap of a finger. That's the Penn State thing we're talking about. And they've had to be creative. They like they found more creative ways to use Tyler Warren, who is a freak.

But if they had just, you know, like if it, even if Keandre Lambert Smith had stayed. Maybe that would have, would have opened things up a little bit. And then, you know, the question you have to ask about Penn State though, and maybe that's not a fair question to ask anymore because, you know, their new offense coordinators are pretty bright guy. Yeah. But did receivers leave, like even like with Will Levis,

like there have been offensive players, and by the way guys, big Will Levis investor now, I've been buying his stuff on the cheap. Speaking of Panini, yeah. Speaking of Panini, that have left Penn State and gone on to do really good things elsewhere. And the question with Penn State to me has always been, do bad receivers,

do they not get good receivers? Do they make good players in their offense in the past not functional? So, and that's a criticism for. For former offensive coordinators here. So like they're moving, I think that they're as explosive as they possibly can be considering their limitations. Right.

And I think that will get better. Interesting question from sailor Joe in the chat. Where do you think quarterback Thomas Castellanos lands? Can I, can I offer a potential theory on Thomas Castellanos? Because he's pretty explosive, isn't he? I know that it didn't work out well for him there at the end, but... Well, do you remember where Castellanos played before he went to Boston College?

I believe I do. No, I don't remember. UCF. Who recruited him to UCF? Gus Malzahn. Who just became the offensive coordinator at Florida state? Who's a good running quarterback who fits really well into the Gus Malzahn Mike Norvell offense. Are you bringing it back to Costellanos? I believe so. Now there's other folks interested.

There's a lot of people interested because he's pretty dynamic. But that would be an interesting situation. And I don't know if he'd want to go back and play for Gus again, but I love the I would love to see the fit. In that situation. Yeah, the thing that I'm always interested in too. But this year is when players who have been explosive at smaller schools or places that aren't necessarily as, you know, traditionally stacked with talent. When you put those players on and teams with better players, it's like if they're explosive at BC and then Florida State goes out and gets another key on Coleman and gets Costa Costellanos.

I have a hard time pronouncing his name for some reason. Tom Brennan doesn't, but that's okay. I know. I know he doesn't. Yeah. The drive to left field. Yeah. Uh, cost the Lano's you got it. You're doing it. I think that that could, that could work, you know? Uh, so yeah, it'll be, I do love that the transfer portal also is just like a big collection of biggest bag, but then also it ultimately comes down to like previous relationships

you happen to have with somebody. It's like connecting dots. Like so Jamari Butler goes in the portal yesterday. That's Nebraska's best returning defensive lineman because obviously they're losing Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher. But if you watch Jamari Butler play against Ohio State this year, you're like, Oh my God, this guy, this guy could be awesome. So he announces he's entering the portal the same day that Tony White takes the Florida State defensive coordinator job. Where's Jamari Butler from? He's from Obeel, Alabama, like right down I-10 from Tallahassee. Like, is he following? And it, cause, Because Tony White runs a 3-3-5.

So if you're a D lineman that excels in a 3-3-5, you probably want to go play in a 3-3-5. And Nebraska may not be keeping the 3-3-5. So I don't know. That one, again, it may be that I just wrote a new coordinators column about Florida State for on three. That may be where I thought all this is in my head.

I think Jamari Butler there will be a market for him like lots of people will want him because they saw how well he played this season, but that I like I do enjoy the dot connecting of transfer portal season. Yeah, and like you have a beautiful mind that remembers like who was a defensive line coach at UMass in 1963 who's still in the game. So like it's really, it's like easier for you.

I've got to like go back and look like where did this guy coach again? Like you have a, you just have a very big gift of recalling things off the top of your head. So no, no useful information in the instant recall though. That's the problem. Like useful for my daily life. Oh, my daughter has an orthodontist appointment. I didn't remember that. But I do remember. Yeah, we're we're we're Tino sunsari was a GA. portal. Where was Tino Sincere, GA? No, he was a GA at Florida State actually. Cause his dad Sal was on the staff there. Yeah. Okay. So that's good to know. Yeah.

But yeah, also another quarterback in the portal, Kayden Salter, Liberty Transfer. I don't know, like I feel like these moves, you also wonder if that has something to do with the head cut. Like, does that mean Jamie Chadwell is on the move? Like, could Jamie Chadwell get the UCF job? Yeah. Also, he's maybe was he QB one right now? And in the portal? Probably. At the moment? Yeah, I think so. Yeah. So putting him putting him out on a roster with a bunch of

players would be kind of fun. Yeah, that would be that would be very interesting and it's something we thought might happen last year. Did we thought he might follow Hugh Fries to Auburn and he didn't he stayed at Liberty so this is this is going to be a really interesting would have helped them a little bit just a little little bit a little he'd been there for the past two seasons but that would have been I mean Auburn might have won three more games this year because of that how many like what would you like what would you set the line of more wins on Auburn schedule had they gotten gating to go with him?

Oof. Or 56 we're talking about the past two seasons, probably six or seven more wins here. Oh, five, four or five more wins. Yeah, they could have won 9910 games maybe and that and that because they were so close and so many of them. Yeah. Yeah. Oh Boy, this is this is gonna be a really interesting next couple of weeks But Ari we have games to talk about we have The players that are on their current teams and are staying on their current teams to talk about as well first

I want to tell you about row back. I am wearing my row back performance hoodie right now The most comfortable piece of clothing in my arsenal. I've got a bunch of them. Several have been stolen by my daughter. That's okay. I may have to just get more. You can load up on Roback hoodies, polos, Q-zips, the joggers, the new butter soft jogger material.

It's awesome. Use the promo code ANDY and get 20% off your first order. That's ROBAC, R-H-O-B-A-C-K.com. Use the code ANDY for 20% off your first order. You can be as comfortable as I am right now and I am very cozy, very comfortable right now in my ROBAC. Ari, we need to predict the college football playoff

rankings that will come out tonight. Seven o'clock Eastern time. So it's not between basketball games tonight. We're not at the mercy of Tom is calling timeouts. You can join Ari and I as we learn what the rankings will be tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern time. What? OK, I there's a couple spots I'm looking at that I think are very interesting, but I want to point out something when my daughter being Well, not your Twitter. We can do that in a second. Also, Lane Kiffin retweeted us. He retweeted our video from yesterday where we broke down his manifesto, but Jim Phillips, the ACC Commissioner. Remember how I praised him a couple weeks ago for understanding, getting out there, politic and for his teams a little bit. He did it again in an interview with our friend Nicole Auerbach and Chris Brudden on series

XM basically pointing out that the committee and the play the playoff organization has said you shouldn't be punished for making a championship game. So basically what he's what he's trying to set up is if SMU happens to lose to Clemson this weekend, that SMU would get an at large spot, would be that second ACC team in the bracket. And I think that is a very smart political move by Jim Phillips. I don't know if necessarily anybody's afraid of what the ACC is going to do if that team gets punished. I think they would be afraid of the Big Ten of the SEC in that situation. But it's a smart thing to do because it does, I think, appeal to the ADs and the coaches in the committee room.

Because like those coaches, they're thinking, oh, this team made the championship game. They've had a great season. We're going to punish them for playing in the game that we're using as a money grab. Like no, you know, we should do with the college football playoff committee and I would actually do it when my daughter gets older. We should, uh, what does it call sequester them? Like it's the OJ trial. No, no Twitter. You have to stay in the hotel. What does it call sequester them like it's the OJ trial? No Twitter

You have to stay in the hotel. You have to watch the games on mute So I love it influenced by anything but what you see on the TV I Love it Yeah, they have to bring them they slide their dinner to them underneath their door It's a five- star meal, you know, right. But it's but it's on a tray slid through the door. I love it. Metal tray. Yeah.

Because I do like the thing that is interesting is, is that I think that you buy into or get excited about politicking more than I do. Like, I just think it's not a matter of excitement. It's just I'm glad for Jim. I like Jim Phillips, but I don't know that he necessarily understood the shark tank that he had jumped into by becoming a conference commissioner at first and now he does and it's been it's been good to see the growth.

Also Ari. I did say on the show yesterday, is Kalen DeBoer going to be giving his manifesto like Nick Saban would? No, Kalen DeBoer didn't. Greg Byrne, the Alabama Athletic Director, did. He posted on Twitter basically a graphic saying, here's all of Alabama's bona fides

to get that last at large spot. So now we'll just we'll see what Shane Beamer comes up with for this. We'll see what Mario Cristobal comes up with, but we're gonna we'll probably get them for everybody. But let's see how I don't know if this is like by platform for this, but maybe it is. Go away go away. I just say it and there's going to be a little profanity. All you people are full of shit, like all of you. And it's just like I have a problem and I need help with it, but I can't stop arguing with people who are politicking for their team.

Yeah, you're not going to change their mind. They can't change their mind. And I wasn't even trying to, but you saw not going to change their mind. They can't change their mind. And I wasn't even trying to. But you saw what happened to me. I got sucked into Vault Twitter last night. I don't know if you saw that. I didn't see that because why are you arguing with Vault Twitter? They're in.

That's why I was pulling my hair out. And these people, a lot of them are very hateful and just mean. I don't know like What just like you met all Twitter? No, it's just like God, it just could talk about football. They're like, you know, my wife's ugly and my kid hates me. It's just like Jesus Christ, man I mean, let's let's talk about the game here. I hope those aren't true So here's what happened I posted my bubble watch on Saturday, Andy, and this is

going to get back to the politicking point. Okay. And vault Twitter got a look at this and they see Tennessee is behind Ohio State in the bracket. Oh, they don't have a home game. And as you know, being the difference between eight and nine is a huge deal for Vol Twitter. And honestly, it's a huge deal.

And playing in Newland and playing in Ohio Stadium is probably a three point difference in the game. So it's an important thing to get upset about. Didn't seem to bother Michigan. But go on. Yeah, you can win on the game. So it's an important thing to get upset about. Didn't seem to bother Michigan, but go on. Yeah, you can win on the road. Yeah, it's it but but and that's why it's like I always used to say like arguing about seating is such low stakes in comparison to in and out like

in the past, but like these people like it's like, okay, and I know there's a lot of very wonderful nice Tennessee fans. I'm not trying but there are is a set like ball Twitter like the ugly edge of all Twitter's proud of being it's the most vile unbelievably disgusting place on the internet. Like it's the black dark web right? Is it the black web or the dark web? Whatever they call the dark right there, but they're proud of it. So I don't think you're insulting

them by saying this. I think they're not even trying to insult them. I'm going to do this is them doing their jobs. I don't know how you could behave the way that these people do at times, but they do. And the thing that was like irritating with me is like a my projection of bubble watch. And I tried to explain this to these people is my projection of what I think it will look like at the end. Not what I think, first of all. So like whether or not I believe Ohio state deserves to be a home, home team or not is not at stake here.

Secondly, Ohio state has two wins right now over teams in the top 10 in the college football playoff committee rankings. So they think that Indiana is a facade and that they should not get rewarded for a quality win over a fraud. And they're arguing with me about things like, well, recency if Tennessee would have lost that to Arkansas this weekend instead of when they did, they would fall back way further back.

And it's just like Tennessee fans are making up metrics to try to equate the two teams as if Ohio State doesn't just factually have a better resume right now. And like, it's just like, there is a departure from reality and no matter who you root for. You can make your resume malleable enough to seem better than everybody else's. Like Alabama and Ole Miss are arguing the same thing and all they're doing is highlighting the things that are advantageous for them while ignoring the things that aren't. and the data points that favor them in this situation. No, that's that's how you politic like Ari. I know it's stupid. It doesn't make any sense.

I know it. I got a mean get mad at me for doing this on this show where they're like Andy acts like he's always right and Andy Andy makes it seem like everybody else who thinks this, you know, the opposite of him is stupid. I'm trying to convince you of my position. That's the whole point. I want you to change your mind and agree with me. Now, I realize Ari, that when I do that,

I'm usually being stupid too, because I'm not gonna change people's minds. You're definitely not gonna change people's minds on this. I'm not even trying to change people's minds. I want people to think rationally and they won't. But they're not going to. Why would a Tennessee fan think rationally? They want the best for Tennessee.

They don't really care about anything else. So I got this meme that somebody sent me yesterday and it is a fit man in a suit with an Ohio State logo for a face. And it said, Michigan beat us at home two days ago. And then there's a female secretary that has a college football playoff for a head and it says, Oh, you're sweet.

And then underneath it, there's a overweight man who's disheveled with a Tennessee face saying. We lost the Arkansas on the road two months ago. And then the same woman with the college playoff says, hello, human resources. And like, they're basically saying that because Ohio state lost two days ago to Ohio, because they're like the beggar better brand, I guess, that they are going to get the benefit of the doubt. But this meme also leaves out the fact that Ohio state beat two conference

playoff teams right now. And at the moment, Tennessee has beaten zero. And it's like that is funny. Yeah. That meme is funny, but it's not true. You know what I mean? And it's like why can't we argue about what's true? Right, but Tennessee fans don't want to think about that. Tennessee fans want the best for Tennessee and it is very inconvenient if Tennessee and Ohio State are indeed up to be considered for the eight seed

and the nine seed, which we don't even know that yet. We'll find out about tonight, or at least we'll have a better idea tonight. But it is very inconvenient for them that Ohio State has wins against two teams that are definitely gonna be in the playoff. And Tennessee has a win against Alabama, which might be in the playoff.

So, but you know what that's like? It's like going to the doctor and the doctor saying you're at risk for lung cancer because you're a chain smoker and then arguing with the doctor about whether or not cigarettes is not lung cancer. This is not like this is real life. This is sports then do it for like a less less stakes. You can't fit into your dress or your jeans for the wedding.

You're going to or your suit for the wedding you're going to. You've got a month to do it and then you're arguing with me about whether or not Cheetos are bad for you. Like it's like it's not it's pretty it's not and I'm not saying that like they shouldn't politic for their teams and I'm not even talking about Tennessee fans, but I don't know if I'm the only one but like if I were a fan, I would at least want to know the truth. I'd want to have conversations about the truth because if you want to have

they want to have conversations with about about the truth amongst themselves, but with interlopers like you or me or anybody else, they don't want to have conversations about the truth. I'm not an interloper. I'm just I want to have a real conversation about it. You're not a ball. Here's the thing though, ball Twitter and River who's back here laughing his ass off because he knows all about it. Is that like, can we actually have an Ohio State Tennessee debate that is real? Because like I would I'd want to have that debate. We can but if we have it, we will never change the minds of the Ohio State or the Tennessee fans who are taking part.

Do Tennessee fans have an opportunity to convince me that they should be eight instead of nine by using the full picture in a real argument instead of ignoring what they can't convince you because you're convinced that they don't because it's possible. Like the thing is like, I actually think that you could make the case like the bracket was never what, what I think the bracket is what I think they're going to do. But like, if you want to tell me that Tennessee is playing better right now and that recency of losses should matter, like I'm all for having that discussion, I'll have that discussion with you all day, like Lionel Richie

baby all night long, but I'm not going to have discussions with people that, that are irrational and aren't using the full context. It's insane. And the most embarrassing thing about myself is that I can't help myself. I think that's part, I think that's what it is. I'm talking to people that aren't living in reality. It's like going to a person who's senile and arguing with them about politics. It's

like, and I can't stop. It's like you have an app on your phone that allows you to tap the screen a few times and someone bring a Slurpee to your house and objectively, you know how ridiculous that is and why how what a waste of money that would be. But it's something you can do, so you do it. Yeah, that's a yeah, but anyway, so the reason why I brought this up is that we so here's what's going to happen, and I guess it's very high stakes for me tonight because

if Tennessee is ranked ahead of Ohio State in the poll tonight, which I think there should be a. A possibility of that, right? I don't know. We're gonna have to break. We're going to predict the rankings tonight. Well, I'm not going on my start there. Do you, do you think, where do you think Ohio State falls to?

Remember Miami is going to fall out. You know, they're, they were at six last week. They're going to fall. Ohio State was at two. So where do we'll start with Ohio State. Where do you think Ohio State ends up? So here's the thing that is interesting about this on three just posted from the main account 35 minutes ago, Thomas Goldkamp's projections of the rankings. Okay. And Thomas projected that Tennessee would be number six and Ohio state would be number seven. Now, if that does happen.

Okay. The thing that I think would be interesting is, is that Ohio state would have wins over the number three team and the number nine team in this projection in Tennessee would be. Uh, ranked one spot ahead with only a win over the number 11 team. So if you do this, if this happens tonight, okay, and Thomas does a good job with this. I'm not throwing stones at the guy. How can you rationalize that in a realistic way that vault

Twitter wasn't able to do last night? And does that mean that Tennessee will likely host a game instead of Ohio State likely playing each other? Because if you do it right now, and both teams don't play this weekend, then how can you flip them at the end? So it's a very high stakes scenario. Yeah. Because I'm going to find out whether what I was arguing about actually turns out to be true tonight. whether what I was arguing about actually turns out to be true tonight. So this is the prediction that we have up on the screen right now. This ACC champ would get pulled up over them and then the Mountain West champ probably if it's Boise state or the big 12 champ depending on how who winds up getting the buy would be pulled up over them as well. So those would drop to the

eight seed and the nine seed and it would determine who hosts that game. So how does that happen though? Explain that to me. If that if he's right, why did that happen? The committee has recency bias You're not gonna get much of an argument for me Ari because I agree with you like you talked me into this on Sunday because I was tempted to do this to put Tennessee ahead of Ohio State But because I I can't even believe that Thomas would put Tennessee Well, you pointed out something that I've been saying. They need Alabama on the top 10 there.

He doesn't even have them in the top 10 in his own projection. You pointed out something that I've been saying. No, they don't. Alabama's would be in their number 11 in this number. I know what I'm saying in terms of top 10 wins in the current rankings. Right. Okay, I got any but what have I been saying all year like the litmus test is going to be who'd you beat that's in the current rankings. Right, okay, I got you. But what have I been saying all year? Like the litmus test is gonna be

who'd you beat that's in the playoff? Ohio State is the only team in the country currently with wins against two teams that would be in the playoff. The only one, and one of them's on the road. So that's why they are going to get, I think, the benefit of the doubt from the committee. That's why Ari thinks that too. We may be wrong, but that is why. But if yeah, like if, but if we are wrong, or I am wrong, then why do we break down resumes at all?

Because then it's like there's no there's no resume that they have. They have a they have a like. Is it a fact to say that Ohio State is a better resume than Tennessee? Is it a fact? I don't know if it's a fact, but it's it's they're both. OK, let me break it down this way is having two wins against top 10 teams against the team that has zero wins over top 10 teams is the one that has two better. That's good. That's good. OK, so like what do we do? I just don't understand what we're

doing here. Well, they both have bad losses. Arkansas and Michigan are bad losses. They canceled each other out. OK, they both had quote unquote good losses, but Ohio State's quote-unquote good losses better because they lost by one in Oregon and Tennessee lost by a lot more and one in Ohio State's loss, you know, because the committee cares about the stuff was in a rivalry game. But I will tell you on you know, those those predictive power rankings that I say the committee relies on. Now Ohio State is ranked higher in FBI.

Their strength of record on FBI and Tennessee's, they are one spot apart. There's Ohio State 6, Tennessee 7. So where's the thing on Tennessee's resume that you could make it not a fact? There's nothing. There's nothing. I'm not arguing with you. Well, I know that Vol Twitter is going to watch those. I want them to I want them to hear it.

You know why they're arguing with you? Yeah, but I want to know Tennessee. They want Tennessee to do have the better thing than somebody else. I know but I just want everybody to come to an agreement before we go into the ranking show tonight that if Tennessee is ranked ahead of Ohio State, it's not because they have a better resume. Everyone will agree to that except Tennessee fans who don't care, who just want Tennessee

to have the better thing. But I'm not going to go on the internet tonight if that happens. I'm just I don't have the appetite. Yes, you will. You you can't help yourself. And I actually think it's like honestly speaking, like you want to know what I actually think?

I'm fine with Tennessee being like that. That's the funniest thing about it. Like they're angry at me. I don't give a shit if they're ranked ahead or not. I'm like, put it. It doesn't make any sense, but put them ahead. Okay, I'll say deserves to be the playoff at all after that. What we saw on Saturday.

They stink. I'm not trying to like prop up Ohio State. I don't give a shit if they make it or not. After a game like that, they should blast the program into the sun for all I care. That's not, you know, that's not you think Ohio State fans are concerned about seeding right now. They're wondering whether or not their program is going to fall apart before we talk about open jobs because I still want to have that conversation we talked about yesterday. Let's predict one

more thing. So obviously the SMU question will be answered by whether they win the ACC championship or not. We don't have to worry about that right now. What we're going to concern ourselves with are in what order will the following teams be placed? And I will list them alphabetically. Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina. What order are those teams going to be placed in? Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami. Okay.

Interestingly enough, so if we go back to last week's rankings, that is the order. Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina was the order they were in in that one cluster. Those were all behind Clemson the team South Carolina beat on the road. So you don't think they'll they'll reorder them at all. I actually want to take that back. Okay. Wait, no, I don't. You're good with that. So you're saying Alabama,

Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami will be the order that those are in. Or, or if I'm wrong, it will be Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Miami. Okay. So late, in the lane Kippen's prediction will be proven right according to you that they will just take Alabama. I mean, it just ties back again to the rationality conversation that I keep getting dragged into. It's like one's 14, one's 15, one beat a team that was in the playoff last week and it will continue to be ranked high. Like why would nothing change? And it's like, I know it's a television show and we have to do something every week, but it's like, there's no point to these rankings if there's no, if there's

no, uh, movement when it comes to, you know, the happenings of the sport. So like, I don't know. I think like, so I released my, I didn't tell you this, Andy, I just didn't even ask, I just did it, but I released my list today. For the college football playoff teams who are still alive and the number is down to 17. OK. Not on that list or Miami and South Carolina. I didn't even put them on the list. Interesting. See, I think they both have a chance. So that to me would be interesting

because I would love to know what you think their chances. Well, I want to see what the rankings tonight because like I said, South Carolina was 15, beat the team that on the road that the committee thought was 12. I thought the committee had Clemson overranked last week, but that's not my choice to say. That's who they had.

Will they bump them up or will they leave them behind Ole Miss and Alabama, which if we're speaking objectively here, have head to head wins against South Carolina. I'm happy you said that because Willie T here said no way South Carolina is above Ole Miss or Bama with head to head losses to them. I would agree with Willie on that. But there are a lot of instances where teams are ranked ahead or behind teams that they have beaten.

Now, some of them have better records. Usually they don't have the same record. And I think that's, that's the differentiator there. Yeah. When they have the same record and there's a head to head, usually the head to head wins out. Do Alabama. Okay. Let me, I'm trying to think, are there any examples of a team in this bracket that are ranked ahead of teams with the same record that they have lost to?

I'm trying to think. George is ahead of Tennessee. Yeah. Ohio State and Penn State, but they don't have the same record. They don't have the same record. And Ohio State's ahead of Indiana,'t have the same record. They don't have the same record. And Ohio State's ahead of Indiana, who have the same record. And Indiana has fewer losses, but Ohio State has a definitive win against them. Okay.

So if they have the same record and a head-to-head win, then they're behind. So it'll be very interesting to see if South Carolina can break that trend. But I kept them out for that reason. So, um, Benjamin Watkins points out they did have Alabama ahead of Tennessee at one point in one of those rankings. So it has happened this year and I believe they had the same record at the time because I thought that head to head was the last metric. It's not the first. It's not the time. One of the first. I thought that if they say they, they, they looked at the resumes side by side,

and if everything is the same on the resumes, then they fall back on the head to head. They don't start right, which usually if it's two conference opponents and they have the same record, their resumes can be very similar. Yeah. So, I mean, I would love to know what you think Miami's path is into the field here. Like, why would you have kept either of those teams alive? Somebody just like Sebastian, the Ibis. I'm not saying there's an object like you keep you keep wanting facts. I love that still matters here.

Yeah, like you see, we can give you the facts. I mean, you're talking to a person that got into an argument with a three year old this morning about why it was important that my that her mommy puts her her outfit on instead of daddy. I was like, can you explain to me with rational thought why that's this matters to you? And she looked at me. I want my mom.

I'm going to be a great dad. I can't wait. I cannot wait. I also can't wait to find out the rankings. That we do live in a world where presenting facts is not enough. And all while it is not just college football, it's everything. Yeah. It's amazing how people want the thing they want to happen to happen. And don't care about anything else.

But I actually am. I'm prideful that I feel like my Opinions and my thought processes not just on college football But everything can be altered with the presentation of facts that can change my perspective Like the fact that the people have no capacity to do that is the world's number one problem in my opinion I agree, but yeah, I think that like I stuck with it So you think something and then somebody presents you with information that's factual that shows That what you think is not true. You should have the capacity as a human being to be accept that you might not like it But that's life. You don't always get what you want freaking babies ball Twitter

You are gonna be great dad Peter Pan I'm just saying like you don't always get what you want I wanted to fall in love with Margot Robbie, but she didn't like me You know, I mean, it's just it's the world we live in That is what you want It's like this is what happens in December I go crazy Ari dad rants are gonna be my new favorite thing on this show I Cannot wait until you have a teenager I can't one thing that I struggle with with my daughter and I love that girl more than life itself

And it's not just my daughter. It's every girl their age is that they like this morning We were watching the Santa Claus in bed when she woke up. She's sick and she slept in our bed with us last night and the remote battery died and She threw a fit because I couldn't get the movie on fast enough and it's just like the the the toddler temperament is I want what I want and I want it now and if you don't make it happen now even if it's something that takes three minutes that there's a freakout I'm having a really hard time with that. It's fall Twitter. And that's fall Twitter. Right now, when

you're arguing with them about Ohio State, but the committee will reveal its rankings. We don't know that those will be what they will be when they do it Sunday. We think they will. So that's the next thing I wanted to talk to you about, not just with Tennessee and Ohio State, just in general. In the beginning of the year or the beginning of the time where we start releasing the rankings, right, like in November, you can put things together and you. A lot of people would be like, I'm not fighting about this. It'll work itself out, right? Um, because there is time remaining in the, uh, in the season with results and stuff where context can fall into place. But these rankings, I would argue are very important because a there's only one left after this, right? B 85% of the teams that are on it aren't playing anymore. So like tonight, do you believe you said, well, they're there tonight.

They might not be there next time. It's like, I kind of feel like if you are ranked where you are and you don't play aside from a team, maybe losing in front of you, like this should be what you are. Like if Alabama is ranked ahead of South Carolina today, then Alabama should be ranked ahead of South Carolina on Sunday. I think that's what will happen. I really do. So tonight isn't a very important night because if Tennessee is ranked then Alabama should be ranked ahead of South Carolina on Sunday. I think that's what will happen.

I really do. So tonight isn't a very important night because if Tennessee is ranked ahead of Ohio State today, then they should be on Sunday. There's no rational reason to move them. And then I would go back to the, and then I would be on Vol Twitter's side. Because then I would be like, okay, if they did it now, then how can you change your mind? That makes no sense. And then I would be mad at the facts that don't add up on that.

So by the way, producer River texted us and said, I think it's inevitable at Tennessee plays at Ohio State, just a matter of where I kind of love that fricking beat writers are booking are booking travel to Columbus. I'm not crazy. Well, here's the thing. Here's the thing. Also, don't book your travel when it's based on a committee's decision. But if we get a Tennessee Ohio State game, I don't care where it is in round one of the playoff on campus somewhere. Oh my God. It's going to be amazing. I actually like if we got to go to that, if we had the blessing of being able to go to that, I would want it to be at Neeland.

I've never been to Neeland. I said on Saturday that I've that I thought you get to meet all of all Twitter telling you they were right and you were wrong. Well, the thing that bothers me, dear, dear little Lord, eight pound, nine ounce baby Jesus and the members of the college football playoff committee. I realized that Ohio State has beaten two teams that are probably gonna be in the playoff. But could you please, please put Tennessee one spot ahead of Ohio State so that Tennessee's the eighth seed,

Ohio State's the ninth seed, so that we can go to Neyland Stadium and I can watch the members of all Twitter in real life. Tell Ari that they were right and he was wrong. Well that's the problem. Give me that please. It's not just vault Twitter. It's all Twitter. They would never say it in real life.

And if we had a real conference, like if you put any of those people in this. Some new checkerboard overalls would never say it in real life. And if we had a real conversation, like if you put any of those people on this, some dude checkerboard overalls would definitely say that to you in real life. Let's go. If you put that dude with checkerboard overalls on this show and put them on the box to my left and we had an actual debate about it without typing and without insults, they would die. They would not be able to exist in that, in that conversation for three minutes. I'm just saying like

it's easy on Twitter when you only have 150 characters and you know you can call somebody a loser like that's it's funny and with the laughing emoji but they could not you could not have a factual debate with me about it and win that debate and they don't yeah I mean but I guess I would need to borrow some of Ryan Day's like you know know, secret service unit. If I went down there, people are going to come after me. Also too, like I found myself like on the enemy side of all Twitter. Like when I've pumped up that team this year, more than any anybody else, like

I've always don't care what you said. Nice in the past. They don't remember any of that. I know they, but like I've like actually loved Tennessee. I think they're awesome. I like eco. I think they've got a high ceiling. I think they could beat Ohio State. Although I saw a look ahead line that Ohio State would be favored by 10 in that game. So that would be interesting. Andy, I know you're looking at face or the third highest ranked odds right now to win the national titles. Oh, I know. I know. Yeah, like that's my that's my other

reason why I think Ohio State's gonna wind up ranked ahead of Tennessee What have I said about the committee's over reliance on predictive power rankings? They still love Ohio State Ari Ohio State shit their pants in a rivalry. That doesn't mean that they're not dangerous I don't think unless they're completely devastated and their entire team is like that rosters dangerous no matter what yeah speaking of dangerous rosters, let's talk a little prize picks because we're the SEC Championship game between Georgia and Texas two very dangerous rosters. Download that prize picks app play $5 get $50 instantly when you use the

code staples. We got some squares out for the SEC Championship game already Carson Beck 251 and a half passing yards more than less than Quinn Beck 251 and a half passing yards more than less than Quinn Ewers 240 and a half passing yards. I will be curious to see if prize picks throws an Arch Manning touchdown total on the old app this week because of the Arch Manning package that we saw last week. I thought that was very interesting because Arch is like the designated zone read guy now they do not. I'm looking at the Texas touchdowns rushing receiving touchdowns. There's a Trey Weisner a Matthew Golden Square, a Jaden blue square and

a gunner helm square. I'd love to see an arch square on this because the arch package fascinates me. Also Friday night Mountain Mountain West championship game, Boise State running back Ashton Genty. His square is 179.5 rushing yards. Under. It was less than that the first time. Less than.

It was less than the first time he played. 179 yards? They're gonna sell out to stop him. Yep. Less than. There you go. Download the app, use code staples, play $5, get $50 instantly on prize picks. All right. One more

thing I want to talk about. Andrew, if OSU's roster is so good, why do they always lose? Maybe they're not that good. Maybe the entire Big Ten isn't good. I think that's why their coach might get fired. Like that's... I don't think he's gonna get fired. Yeah, or might run out of town. Yeah, I don't know. We'll see. We'll see how it goes. But yeah, there's a reason why I've said they're the most underachieving program

in college football relative to their resources. I've said that for five years now, four years. So let's talk about programs and resources because there's a bunch of jobs. There's more jobs than I thought would be open in the power conferences. I said two, I put the over under on two in terms of firing slash force

retirements. I don't know what we're calling Gus Malzahn leaving UCF for Florida State to be the OC, but obviously the fan base wanted to change there. So I don't know if that's a force out or what, but there's four power conference jobs open. And what was North Carolina? Mack Brown in his last press conference after the NC State game was talking about how the next guy is going to have a better situation because this year North Carolina had a four million dollar payroll for players and next year it's going to be at least 12 million because of revenue sharing. Now Mac then said that's not the college football I signed up for and I don't think Mac meant

it this way but that makes it sound like he's going, well, if the player payroll is more than my salary, I'm out. That's not, I don't think what he meant. And also he didn't choose to be out. But he's not wrong. The guy walking into the North Carolina job is going to have more money for players

than Mac Brown ever did. The guy walking into the Purdue job is going to have more money for players than anybody ever did. And let's not forget Jeff Brom had Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game a couple years ago. But Ari, I'm curious. So North Carolina, Purdue, UCF, West Virginia. You mentioned Purdue yesterday and you said it could be a potentially exciting job. And the more I think about it, we live in a world where Kirk Signetti could take over

at Indiana and have them in the playoff in year one. Like we shouldn't assume Purdue is gonna be a dud of a job, right? Like if they make the right hire, they could be good quickly. So here's the question I have, and I actually, you know, maybe this is like bad podcasting, but again, I pride myself on wanting information

and admitting when I don't have it. When revenue sharing does come, will Purdue have more money to give to players than North Carolina? Well, that's a good question. It probably will depend on how Purdue wants to break it up. Because North Carolina, saying that, like if Mack Brown says it's 12 million, well, there are going to be others, because you can spend 20.5, essentially. There's 2 million that you're going to spend on new scholarships. But North Carolina's athletic director, Barbara Cunningham, has said they're going to fully fund all the sports they have as much as they can, which means football is not going to get

the they'll get the most of it, but there will be other schools that will put more toward football than North Carolina does. Okay, so that's interesting because and maybe this is this is a a deep financial discussion and I want you to fact check me on this stuff because this is important in this conversation. But the teams who have traditionally been great before NIL and before all this stuff were the teams who invested the most in their program. Fair statement? Correct. Fair. So if I had to guess, the programs who have been traditionally great at football will

probably allocate more money to the NIL aspect of this or the compensation aspect of this than those teams that haven't been are, right? Because like Ohio State and Alabama and Georgia and all these teams that have a huge pride in their football program will be more likely and have a higher ability to dedicate funds to this. So when we do get this revenue sharing, if it is lopsided in terms of what the salary pool is will be will be at these programs traditionally, are we gonna revert back to the way the sport was set up before or is Purdue going to be a better job than North Carolina because they have more money from the Big Ten and

they will allocate more money to their to their fund like that. Here's why I don't think it goes back to just like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, just dominating everything. Because the gaps in the NIL, purely NIL era were huge between some of these schools, like West Virginia, Purdue, UCF and North Carolina had a massive gap between themselves and say Ohio state and Georgia. Now that gap is going to be smaller because of revenue sharing, but it still will be a gap, but it'll be smaller.

But if Purdue is paying the players through revenue sharing less and has less NIL ability, right? Then how are they going to be more competitive? I'm just, I'm not talking about Purdue in North Carolina. You were talking about Purdue in North Carolina. If North Carolina is going to have a $12 million payroll and Purdue is going to have a $15 million payroll. Yes.

Okay. That's great for Purdue, but it still matters quite a bit if you get the higher right because a good coach slash good developer with a $12 million payroll can beat a guy who's not as good of an evaluator slash developer with a $15 million payroll. It's like, there are years when the Royals and the Rays are better than the Yankees. Because the gap is big, but it's not as big as if the Royals and the Rays had no money. They have some money.

It's still gonna come down to the talent evaluators and how they wanna allocate those funds too. Yes. And the people who can moneyball it well are going to have an advantage. So when revenue sharing does happen, every player is not going to be paid the same. I'm just trying to understand. Right.

Correct. Correct. Your quarterback will still make more money than your backup left guard because the money, the people who are in charge of the money get to allocate that the way that they want, because like to me, it's like then Purdue, if Purdue has 15 million and the, and North Carolina has 12 made up numbers, then does Purdue become a top 20 job in America or a top 25 job. And then conversely, you also have to talk about this too, just because revenue

sharing exists doesn't mean that NIL doesn't anymore. So even if you have a little bit more to play with from a revenue sharing standpoint, like Clemson, for instance, is the perfect example. Like if Clemson allocates more money in the ACC to theirs, but their NIL still doesn't stack up to what Georgia is paying, then Clemson can't beat those teams for the players they were beating. Nothing's going to change. So like you still have to, you still have to, to play the NIA. Like I think there's this understanding that the

revenue sharing model is going to replace. But your assumption is that every player who gets paid more than another player is better than that player. And that's just not true. It's just like, it's just like in pro sports, there will be teams that use their money wisely in teams that don't. And the teams that use their money the most wisely and evaluate the best and develop the best when they have some money now have a chance. Like your Dave Claussen's and your Dabo Sweeney's, I like their chances in this environment a lot more than I like their chances in the previous one.

Yeah, but Clemson is still the Royals. Yeah, and they can win the World Series. But yeah, but with some money, Dabo Sweeney with some money. I like his chances. I know, but I like it a lot. I still like the Yankees. I still rather be the Yankees. lot. I still like the Yankees. I still rather be the Yankees. The Clemson was the Yankees.

You still rather be the Yankees, but if you can't be the Yankees, at least you have a chance. The Yankees don't win the World Series every year. Now the Dodgers won't this year. They're essentially the same thing. You're telling the Yankees and the Dodgers that they're not the Yankees and the Dodgers anymore though. No, I'm saying these are this is actually like the Yankees and the

Dodgers now who don't always win the World Series. But we're talking about a program in Cle this is actually like the Yankees and the Dodgers now who don't always win the World Series But we're talking about a program in Clemson that was the Yankees and the Dodgers three years ago, right? But then the world changed on it Now they're not the Yankees and the Dodgers anymore. Yeah But now they're like the Rangers and also Andy because I want you to just win the World Series a few years ago Like like I'm a five-year-old But everyone's the Rangers then Clemson's not special anymore. That's the point I'm trying to make. Like the Rangers won the

World Series. That's special. No, I understand that. But there are 25 Rangers now, not three. Like everybody's the Rangers if they're not the Yankees or the Dodgers. Like the Clemson is just in the pool with everybody. But the Rangers can beat the Yankees and the Dodgers. That's what you don't seem to understand. I understand that. What I'm saying is that there used to be a hierarchy in the sport and if you're not the Yankees and the Dodgers, you're everybody. Like what's the distinction between Clemson and Purdue at this point? Well somebody's in AAA at this point. Who's in AAA? Well what's the

distinction between Clemson and Purdue? Purdue doesn't have Davos Sweeney. Yeah I mean I guess that if that's the only distinction. Let's say Purdue hires, I don't know who Purdue's gonna hire, but let's say it's like Jake Dickert, who's done a really good job at Washington State in spite of everything conference affiliated that's happened to Washington State.

Jake Dickert's good at evaluating talent. He's good at developing talent. You give him some money, which Purdue would have some money in the Big Ten and a lot of money compared to everybody. I like his chances. I like them being competitive quickly. I know there's going to be a lot of places that you're going to like their chances is all I'm saying. So like I'm trying to like, no, and that's exciting to me. No, I'm not saying that's bad. I'm just trying to understand who is in charge of the way the money is allocated.

It depends on the school. Depends on, because some schools are going to have a GM that reports to the coach. Some schools are going to have a GM that reports to the AD. Like, it is going to be fascinating to see how it gets set up. Are we going to have a program in the next five years that takes a quarterback the coach doesn't like? Yes, absolutely. 100% Because that's electric. Can you imagine it? Are we gonna be writing columns about how a GM sucks?

100% Give us like we probably should now. Can I write that the fact that Ohio State doesn't have a serviceable kicker is a failure of the GM of the program And these should be fired and like Ryan Day is blameless for that I don't know that that's interesting or if that's fun First of all your guy mark Pantoni is not gonna appreciate you even hypothesizing that Because that's that would be their GM No, but is mark Pantoni gonna get a shit ton of money to be the boss

because I think that's the question because that's how it is at most NFL franchises now you had like the Belichick era Patriots where which was more like a college team where the head coach had all the power and I think negotiations they're gonna be like I want full control of the roster. It is right. And it is going to depend on the school, how they decide to do that. I've already talked to people who are looking at GM jobs. And some of their questions are, who do I directly report to? Like officially and unofficially? Like, who can fire me the head coach or the or the ad? Or who makes the final decision on personnel? Who do I directly report to? Like officially and unofficially, like who can fire me? The head coach or the AD?

Or who makes the final decision on personnel? Because in recruiting, these guys are banging their fists together. Like, listen, I don't think people realize how many personnel staffers there are in college football who don't get paid a lot of money, but make very important decisions. It's like you have a 22 year old kid who's breaking down film, banging his fist against

the table for for Braden Fisk. And he turns out to be the best player on a team. It's like that guy who who lobbied for him is not very highly compensated at times, you know, and that's just I made up the player. I'm not that's not I'm just saying like coaches and assistants Head coaches and assistants argue about whether someone's a take or not right now Who makes the final decision on who's a take? It's it is gonna be utterly fascinating because there is no One answer for that right now and is Dan the most the most amazing coaching candidate in the history of mankind in the system?

Dan Mullin is a really interesting coaching candidate in the system because remember, what was the what was the criticism of Dan Mullin in Florida that he didn't he didn't bring in top five classes? Well now there's money and that's why I think like North Carolina is a place where Dan Mullin I think could go succeed right now because they don't expect national championships. They'd love to be competitive in the ACC most years. I think Dan Mullen could have you competitive in the ACC most years. I think John Somerall could have you competitive in the ACC most years. Yeah. And then it turns into the NFL where it's like, who do you criticize

for the personnel problems? The coach, like, like it's happening with Browns right now. Like, is Kevin Stefanski responsible for the Browns sucking this year. Right. Right. Or is it the owner who made them play Deshaun Watson? But, or, or if you want to go back, Jim Harbaugh, remember

when Jim Harbaugh was the coach of the 49ers, he got sideways with Trent Balky, who is the general manager. There was a power struggle that Balky won. Yeah. So now I think we can all agree that Jim Harbaugh is a really good head coach at the NFL level in the college level and maybe the York family that owns the 49ers chose wrong in that scenario.

Yeah. But this is like the entire infrastructure is going to change and it's going to be really into this podcast is going to be electric because we're going to have a lot of interesting discussions that have never existed before. It's going the dynamics are about to change considerably and none of the school like the thing is I can't predict what's going to happen. I think some you'll have some different models that emerge in the next few years and then whatever works everybody's going to try to copy.

But I don't know what's going to work. Yeah. And also too, it's like half the teams are going to take GMs and give them all the power. Like, cause like if I were Ohio State, to bring up Mark Fantoni again, as you mentioned, I'd probably give that guy a lot of power. He is really good at his job. He's really good at his job. Really good job and finds players and recruits well and is constantly at Ohio State. But then at the same time, it's like how could you pay

your Ohio State's coach $10 million? Will be the second most important person in the entire is the next domino. That's the next domino. I was talking to somebody about this yesterday and they and they said with the players making more are the coaches going to make less? Probably, because they're maybe not as important to the final result.

Now, again, do coaches in the NFL make more than general managers in the NFL do? Yes. Okay. more than general managers in the NFL do? Yes. OK. And if you have a great coach, he's still worth pretty much whatever you can pay him. Like the Kirby Smart payout, if you have a Kirby Smart, you have to pay him. But the thing that is interesting about this, and I always think about Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel's list of top 25 coaches that they do every summer. Being a top 25 coach in college football right now has a lot to do with things that aren't motivational in game plan and X's and O's. Like how like is Kirby smart no longer a top 10 coach in America?

Because he, because like, he's at number one right now because of his ability to recruit and in the way that he built his roster, that's why he's number one. I don't think that he's like, Yeah, but I also think he's a pretty good on field coach. Sure, I'm sure he is. I'm not trying to, I'm just saying, like, does he fall to number 11? Like, do you think that, like, there are other? No, I would still have him at number one.

Yeah, I'm trying to think of like, like the coaches that we think are the best at like drawing shit up on a whiteboard. Like, does that, does that become the X's and O's? See, I think, I think development and X's and O's, they both matter. Evaluation still matters because as good as the GMs are gonna be, you still want your evaluators and that's a team effort in the NFL, it's gonna have to be a team effort and it's been a team effort in college football. Like there are people who nobody knows their names,

these recruiting staffers who are grinding on tape, they're just on huddle constantly. And they say, I just saw this. They take it to the position coach. They check the person out. They go see him in person. You know, the position coach goes and sees him in person during the spring evaluation period. And they're like, oh, he is as good as we think he is. He tells the head coach, the head coach. So it's always been a collaborative effort. It's just me a different kind of collaborative effort now trying to figure out who the best players are. And there are going to be bargains. There are going to be guys who are massive recruits who get tons of NIL money. And then there are going to be guys that still go

under the radar that come and you develop and they become big stars. All of that's still gonna happen. I wonder if there's a list of recently fired coaches who don't have jobs right now. Like is Brian Harson a good coach now? I think, well I think Brian Harson was always a good coach at the right level. Is he a hireable coach again? I thought he was hireable last year. Like yeah, I don't know. What he did at Auburn was pretty offensive to me. Well, it was a case of not understanding the job that you took. But if you put Brian Harson on a Mountain West school,

I would have no doubt that he would have them competing for the Mountain West title very quickly. Yeah. But then all of a sudden, is Brian Harson qualified for an Auburn job immediately when this happens? For example, I mentioned Dan Mullen from North Carolina. Carson qualified for an Auburn like job immediately when this happens. That I don't know. Cause for example, like I mentioned Dan Mullen from North Carolina, I still

don't know about if I'd say like if Sark went to the NFL, I don't think you'd put Dan on a Texas because I think the expectation is you still have to get those top five classes and you can have whatever apparatus is in place that you want until we know that you can do that without the head coach being as intensely involved as it has been in the past. I don't think you can risk that but when revenue sharing does come. How much you want to spend and how active you're going to be in compensating your athletes is at the program's discretion. So how good a job is to wrap it

back around to the jobs that are open is solely going to be determined by the place that's trying to hire you. Right. But in this initial first period as everybody gets to the revenue share, like West Virginia goes from being an impossible job to a job where someone can come in and succeed. Purdue goes for being in. What's that? Rank the four. The four. So North Carolina, Purdue, UCF in West Virginia. I'll put North Carolina one because I think the path of the playoffs the easiest. They do have

money. There is an I like bonus NIL potential, especially if you hit it big in North Carolina. Purdue number two, because it's in the big 10, you're going to have the most money. UCF is just easier to recruit to Orlando than it is to Morgantown. They're in the same conference. And then West Virginia would be the fourth of those. But again, West Virginia goes from being impossible in the current era of NIL, where you're just never going to have enough to feel the kind of roster you need, to now if you evaluate well, you spend it wisely, there's a really good chance you could be in the mix for the

Big 12 title. Yeah, I think I agree with that. West Virginia should have gotten Randy Moss when they had a chance, man. You ever watch Rand University? I have. Listen, he was at Notre Dame. He was going to be at Notre Dame. He's going to be at Florida State. A lot of people wish they'd had Randy Moss for longer. Yeah, and the stuff that he did wasn't that bad to get kicked off. I think in this day and age

It would have been a completely different situation. I don't know what news Yeah, I don't think he ends up at Marshall in that situation But he got kicked off at Notre Dame because he smoked weed, right? That's why they kicked him off the team I can't remember if that was Notre Dame or Florida State one of them kicked him off the team for smoking weed. Yeah Yeah, but I just want to imagine like can you imagine? showing up to a basketball court in West, Virginia and Randy Moss and Jason Williams are standing there dribbling I mean when you think about that happened like somebody actually walked into that run and got destroyed. This is a

bad at math podcast, but with the statistical This is a bad at math podcast, but with the statistical improbability of those two people existing at the same exact time in that small area of country is insane. In the same little town. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, God. I just, I can't even imagine, like, it must have been so much fun to see.

But yeah. And that's, that's, that's why I love you Ari you are because it I don't know how we got to to Randy Moss and Jason Williams just dominating pickup games in high school. But I'm glad we got there. Ari, we got to get ready. 7pm Eastern Time. The rankings get revealed on the on three sports YouTube channel. We will be there as they're revealed. You will hear the gasping in the Oz and the wah wah wah. Maybe we'll see. But I'm sure there'll be plenty to discuss so we will talk to you at 7 PM Eastern Time.