Andy & Ari On3 - USF STUNS Florida: What's next for Billy Napier?

Episode Date: September 7, 2025

USF's Nico Gramatica kicked a field goal as time expired to shock Florida 18-16 in The Swamp. It might be the biggest win in USF history, and it portends bad things for the Gators and coach Billy Napier going forward. Florida's next four games? At LSU. At Miami. Texas. At Texas A&M. Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.   Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch us on YouTube here: https://youtube.com/live/iGuqxV5q4eQ Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]

Welcome to A&RR. That is the emergency show siren because it's an emergency show. USF has just walked off Florida at the swamp. Ari, I will be the first to apologize to all of the people for hyping up Florida all offseason and hyping up generational quarterback, hyping up special season, hyping up, special season, hyping up, everything's changed, hyping up. it's all different it's not they just lost the usf and and they did it in the ways that they lost so many games in the billy napier era just dumb mistake after dumb they had a guy

get penalized for spitting on a dude in the final drive like that's dumber than throwing a shoe uh especially because the spitting on thing happened for the entire world to see a few nights ago Yes. Yes. You think every coach had a meeting with their players after Jalen Carter got ejected from the Eagles Cowboys game. Like, hey, maybe don't spin on people. You know, not a great idea. I hope that your apology when we started the emergency show was for the both of us because I'm just as culpable. Oh, we're both guilty. Very guilty. I think that there's a chance that USF is like really good this year. Not that that's a excuse. Like, they-Bit Miami next week. We're going to find out in a big way. next week, I think. But, you know, we actually in the off season, I think actually outlined the nightmare fuel for Florida, and that was losing this game. And I don't think we were being serious

about it, but I was like, no. So here, Andy, you're the, you're the, you live in Gainesville. You know a lot of people around the program. You know, I am a prisoner of the moment. I didn't go to the game in person because I did not think there was a chance this could happen. But like, what is the temperature now like are we are we in full he's cooked mode five billion degrees because look at call up the schedule again producer river so we were saying for billy nate through to have a chance he needed to go two and two over the stretch of at lSU at miami texas at texas an up we were not banking on a loss to usf so now to have a chance because again like eight and four is okay and maybe, maybe does it for you.

But another seven and five season, like, that's not going to do it. So you're going to go three and one in that stretch now when you can't beat USF at home? Yeah. There's just a expectation. And I know in the offsees when we talk about Florida and we talk about coaches that are facing pressure, the only way to really contextualize it is to try to go through record. But I think that Billy Napier had to live up to an idea. And that idea was that this is an elite level football team that belongs on the same field no matter who they're playing. And I don't

know if that's a way to quantify eight and four or something different. But when you lose this game, it's not just, oh, no, this is a bad loss in your record. It's a statement that you are not what you're supposed to be. Right. And I don't know, Notre Dame lost in Northern Illinois last year. We all freaked out. Notre Dame made the championship. Like, Notre Dame schedule was a little bit easier. A little bit easier. I just don't know that I view this game. Like Notre Dame got cut, got clipped, sleepwalking, I think. Florida is playing an in-state school with a-

Florida made a lot of the same mistakes. Now, at least they had 11 guys out there on the field goal block team. So they got that going for them. But Florida made a lot of the same mistakes they made in early season games in every year of the Billy Napier tenure. So this is year four, and the same stuff keeps happening, the same stuff. It's the same shit in a different bag. Yeah. So that's the problem. Like the clock management, the, okay, you get the ball back with 242 to go. You've got to run the clock out. You're up one. Yeah. Now, I know that DJ Lagway had a choice to check to a throw if he saw. a loaded box in that situation.

Don't give him the choice. Call a play that does not give him a choice. Call a play that requires you to run because you got Jaden Baugh, who had been somewhat successful today. And again, you had to throw in third down. And DJ LaGway did put it on Vernel Brown the third. He just dropped it. Now, you can criticize the freshman for dropping the ball, but the freshman is the only reason

you're even in the game because he had the punt return earlier. So you go back to the first half. You had two plays in a row, touchdown, called back. I believe it was a hold on the first one, call back again because of offensive pass interference. It was like a pick play 30 yards ahead to where the guy caught the ball. It was crazy.

Yeah. I mean, it is interesting because I think that nitpicking and trying to pick apart the fabric of a loss like this is interesting. It's like how many mistakes did they make that stop them from winning? You're a 20-point favorite. You're supposed to be 15 or 20 mistakes away from losing. Like, you know, it's just like, I don't know. You know, you, I feel like you played the game that you just played when you're playing South Carolina.

Like, that's not that. Like, it didn't even look like they were physically superior for their opponent for all four quarters to me. It didn't. Oh, it felt under. USF in the trenches held up very well against Florida, which, And look, we will see next week, because all of this, we could be speculating. We'd be saying, well, maybe USF's really good. Maybe Florida plays at LSU next week.

USF plays Miami. We'll know. Like, we will know in both directions. Yeah. You know, and that's the fun of the season, right? You know, the context clues that you pick up along the way, you know? USF beat the crap out of Boise and then Boisey beat the crap out of, who'd they beat the crap out of last night? I can't even remember.

I was watching it, too. Hey, Ari, Ari, since the Alabama fans got mad at us for talking about Kail and DeBore's buyout when it was after game one of your two, let's have a Billy Napier buyout conversation. Yeah, I'm sure there's some people in the audience would like to know what it is. Sure. 19 and a half million, it would be about 19.5 million dollars. You owe 50% within 30 days of the firing.

So you need $10 million cash right away. They had 13 million ready because that was half of 26 million, which is what it was last year. They had $13 million ready after the Texas A&M game. They end up not firing Billy Napier. And the thing is, and this is why Ari and I and many, many other people thought

this was going to be different. After all that, after they got through all that, Lagway becomes a starter. Ramerts gets hurt against Tennessee. Lagway becomes the full-time starter. They did look different. They looked different against LSU and Ole Miss. And the thought was

it will be that Florida that comes out for the 2025 season. Instead, it's the same. I don't get it. I just don't get it. It's the same Florida that came out and lost to Utah at the beginning of year two, and they got trashed by Miami in the season opener at the beginning of year one. They're lucky they play Long Island in the season opener. Because if they played somebody good, they'd be doing this a week earlier.

Last year, it was so easy. When you and I went to the opener against Miami, it was so easy to analyze that game because it was like, okay, Miami's got a lot of explosive, awesome playmakers. Their lines are good because Christobald did it. Like, Florida isn't physically equipped. Florida's physically equipped this year. Like, that's the thing that's so frustrating if you're a Florida fan probably, right?

Like that you're playing in a situation too where Florida's entire offseason, and was predicated on proving to the entire world that they're a bona fide, like, contender of the SEC. Like, this is the type of game that you have in week eight after you've already had some hype on you or the type of game that you have when, you know, you already think that you're good or the world thinks that. Like, this is the type of game that, like, Clemson's having right now with Troy. Like, this isn't the type of situation that, you know, Florida was in.

And you're at home, you're playing against the team that you're favored by 18 points against, but you're also favored against the team that clearly has an awesome quarterback. the entire country watched them cook last week, last Thursday. It's an in-state rival that's not so Southern despite their name. I just, I don't, I do not understand how it could have been this bad. Like, it didn't have to be great, but how did it get to this point? Well, and that's the problem is it's Groundhog Day again. Yeah.

And you just have to do something about that. And look, if Napier comes out of this and wins all these next few games, and winds up nine and three, then, okay, he's fine. But what has he shown you that suggests he can get through that gauntlet? I specifically asked you in the offseason because we were having a debate, and I remember this like it happened yesterday, about coaches that faced the most pressure or coaches whose seat was the hottest, and we were comparing Venables to Napier.

And I made the comment that Napier's seat has to be hotter because we already thought he was going to get fired in the middle of a year. And I said, it's possible that Billy Napier on a bad start could get canned in the middle of the year. And then you pushed back on it a little bit. And I think that you were right because they turned it around last year. But then I asked you on the show, do you remember this? I said, well, what if they lose the USF? I don't remember this, but what did I say?

I don't think I was being serious. I'm not trying to act like I projected this to happen. I clearly didn't. But like, this is worth. than losing games to really good SEC teams to start your really tough schedule. This is like, we are not it. And it's like even turning it around, like any hope or of idea of like grandeur of making the postseason, you know, that you spent all offseason dreaming.

Well, if Florida goes nine and three against this schedule, blah, blah, blah, they might be able to be in it. It's like, this team isn't even close to that. It looked awful. And like I know we can talk about the mistakes. It looked like quicksand. What has to go wrong in coaching where a team that's athletically superior

to the other looks slower than the other team? Can I throw something out there? It's interesting because so when they decided to bring Billy Napier back last year this was the week of the Texas game so they lose to Georgia but play tough after Lagway gets hurt, but they lose. They announced that Thursday going into the Texas game

that they're going to keep Billy Napier. Now, when they did that, that there were some guarantees made to the people who made the decisions that he'd hire an offensive coordinator who actually called plays and there was

a possibility that he might change defensive coordinators too. Neither of those things happened. Why? Because he beat LSU and he beat Ole Miss. They finished on a win streak. He got some juice and he didn't have to. And he said, I'm going to go

and I get this. If I'm Billy Napier, I might do the same thing. Like, if I know my job's still on the line, and I might get fired if I mess up next year, I would probably go the same way that I think I'm the best as well, because he thinks he's the best play caller for this offense. And to be honest, you weren't going to get a whole wide range of great play callers who wanted to take the job. Because you know he's on a lot of seat.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, nobody wants to go join a staff where the head coaches on the blazing hot seat. But if you're wondering why it looked the same, well, this is why. And this was the risk that he took. And we said this in the offseason. I said he is taking a gamble here, but I understood why. He just made a roll craps.

Did I say that right? I don't play craps. Snake eyes. He rolled snake out. Well, no, he might have crapped out. It's out. That's it. Well, it looked crappy.

rolled the dice and he hit a seven right out of the right out of the yeah yeah it was just the the the lack of discipline like the spitting incident on the last drive is emblematic of the entire tenure sounds like a story lead yeah one one year it's you can't get the right number of people on the field goal block team next year it's the same thing uh play calling against tennessee last year like it's all adds up and it's all it's all part of the same they're all symptoms of the same disease. Man, I'm sure, I knew, we knew something was going to happen today. We didn't know what it was, but something did happen here.

And man, that, we look stupid. Yeah, I look stupid. John Lee in the chat, I don't know how to feel anymore, buddy. It's been a day. It's been an interesting day. Andy, what's your most of Florida fans on how to feel again? You might want to go numb for a bit. Here's the thing.

If they go to Baton Rouge and win, they're going to be right back up there. But you and I saw LSU in person last week. I realized Clemson's not looked very good against Troy. Nothing Florida did today gives me any confidence they can beat LSU on the road. Yeah, LSU is beating Louisiana Tech 7-0 at the end of the first. as we speak, but they're not going on either. Let's give a few more quarters to see what happens. I'm sure it'll be okay.

But the thing is, you go to LSU. After that, EO2, Miami, and the schedule feels like it's going to do it for you. And I think the Florida people are over the, hey, everybody will leave if he gets fired. Like, yeah, everybody will. Well, yeah, also. That's how it works.

Saw a few Florida fans in our chat right now kind of like forget DJ Lagway too and not the right F word. See, I wouldn't, I wouldn't bail on DJ Lagway just yet. I'm not, I'm not ready to give up on him completely. He still throws a beautiful ball. How did he perform in the game? Not good. It was, the long interception especially was a very bad throw. That was a, you know, that was a killer.

Now, he had some moments where he threw it perfectly and it was dropped. there was one there was one that should have been a touchdown pass i think it was the tight end he was so surprised that it was such a perfect throw it like came down straight down and just hit him in the chest and then of course the drop there because if brown squeezes that ball down the left sideline they probably run the clock out when the clock out and win yeah um oh and by the way i will point out because we didn't cover this on the show because everything there's so much stuff happening this week. Scott Strickland, the athletic director, got his contract renewed this week. He's renewed till 2030. Florida has an interim president. If you haven't followed,

and I don't expect any of you to follow university politics, but Florida had a president resign in July of 2024, Ben Sass. They brought in Kent Fox, who had been the previous president. He was the interim for a while. They chose Santa Ono, who had been the president of Michigan, to be the permanent president. And then there's a secondary board that has to approve the hire that didn't approve it in order to stab Florida's board chair in the back. And so now they have an interim president again. They're looking for a permanent president. This is not the kind of person who's going to go firing athletic directors and wanting to fire coaches. That's kind of wild. Yeah. Yeah. It's like that show House of Cards, but

Florida University of Florida edition a little. Well, it's, lots of Florida men involved. Actually, not really Florida. People from out of state doing crazy things. Yeah. So are we forgetting anything? Are we forgetting anything about this game or should we left Florida? I figured a Florida fan would

bring former Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley's most famous quote to light today. What should be done eventually should be done immediately. But I don't think it'll be done immediately. I don't think it's going to be done tomorrow. I think it's going to be a little while.

He's going to have a chance to coach against these really good teams. I mean, look, here's the thing. You go on a three-game win streak against LSU, Miami, and Texas, all is forgiven. But if it gets bad, you're pretty slim. What are your thoughts if things go bad in the next few weeks, like his proposition of finishing the season? The open date is the week before the Georgia game. Got it.

It's late October. In case you're wondering. It's the wheels fall off. It's fun to say, well, what if everything gets back to normal again? But it's like, what's more likely? What's normal after this? The odds of repeating what they did a year ago again are probably unlikely. Right.

And it's probably not enough. Even if they do that, seven and five at this point is just not good enough. Like, this guy's never had a good season. Yeah. You've had four years that you've never had a good season. Brennan Venables is on the hot seat, and he won 10 games in year two, right? Correct. Yes, exactly.

That's the point. Yeah. So that's where they're at. We do need to give props again to USF, though. Alice Golish, Byron Brown, incredible job by the Bulls. They came up. We're not intimidated whatsoever. Huge win.

So they've beaten Boise State and they've beaten Florida. Now they go play Miami. are they're already in position i think i don't think they have to beat miami if they win the american now they'll make the playoff i think that's right if you get one because that means you've been too lane which i think it would be the other one that is the the big contender in the american for that spot so memphis is going to be very good this year too so that way and navy like they so they have memphis and navy on the road so like the idea of us f going undefeated in the conference, don't get crazy because they have a hard conference schedule.

But if they can, they're a good shape. What did you have as your D-5 representative in your Bracketology last week? I can't remember. Tulane. Tulane. Do you switch it? I'll probably put USF in there this year. Tulane, well, as when we started as Tulane was down to South Alabama.

Yeah. So they play Duke next week. I don't know what that's going to be. But this is going to be a fascinating next few weeks. but USF is in a great position. They don't have to beat Miami to make the playoff. If they beat Miami, then if they win the American, they're obviously in the playoff.

There's no doubt about it. So if they beat Miami, though, then we're talking about they're not supposed to be the 12th seed. They're supposed to be a much higher seed. Yeah. I mean, if there's one thing that we've learned about college football, Andy, as we are done burying the head coach of Florida, is that in college football, what was true last week isn't always what's true next week.

And you go into games thinking, well, they got their doors blown off last week. So how are they going to compete? Like, it's within the realm of possibility that Florida goes on the road is fired up and is in a one possession game with LHU in the fourth quarter. So we'll keep monitoring that. But if you're in Gainesville and, you know, Andy, I know that you are, you're probably having a rough, rough night if you're a Gator fan and rightfully so, especially because it's not just like we have to show a pulse.

you got done convincing, and when I say you, I mean me, convincing people that Florida had a shot to be really good and you look really, really, really dumb right now. I do look really, really dumb right now. Yeah, I think the Florida hype was a show-wide disease. Yeah, it was all of us. We weren't the only show, but I will say there were shows that pushed back on it and did not buy it.

And so good for you guys. You know, I got killed last year by the folks at my alma mater because they said I was too negative, that I was overly negative last offseason. And I felt pretty bad about it, actually, after they lost or after they beat LSU and Ole Miss, I was like, oh, okay, maybe I was wrong. Yeah. I mean, the ingredients of success were there. Like, that's the problem with me. It's like, okay, well, you're an idiot for buying into Florida. It's like, well, why did I buy into Florida?

Because all their best players from this last year's turnaround were coming back. DJ Lagway I ranked as my number one quarterback in college football like all the elements of the of the return of Florida were there like we we can't tell the future and I'm not trying to skirt responsibility we were clearly wrong but like it's just to me it's just bizarre that's all I always get very but that's the thing is and this is where I think the people who've been telling us in the chat all off season that we're wrong this is where they're right it's not bizarre When somebody keeps telling you repeatedly who they are, believe them. And we chose not to. Zach in the chat goes, you can never be too negative. If you're wrong, you're pleasantly surprised. Listen, I don't know how you, do you shave, use a wet razor when you shave? Yes.

I use clippers. And I went too short, if you can tell. And I was like, God, I've got a podcast line. I'm going to look like a round-faced loser. I can't believe I can't even figure out a way to shave my head or shave my face correctly. I'm almost a 40-year-old man. You could use a man's razor. Yeah.

Well, no, because I don't like to go clean shaving. I have a, I have a, you know, it's strategic stubble. I got you. Yeah, strategic stubble. And, you know, whenever you have a shaving mishap, you're going to have a rough day. My day is not nearly as rough as Billy Napier. So good luck, Billy, and good luck to Florida. That was, that was an absolute disaster.

And my hope for you and your fans is that you can turn it around. but I'm not feeling good about it. In case you were wondering if it was the worst case scenario, yes, it was. Yeah. That's the worst case scenario. Yes. The good news is there's nowhere to go it up.

Good luck.