Andy & Ari On3 - Vanderbilt KNOCKS OFF LSU | What’s next for the Commodores and Tigers?

Episode Date: October 18, 2025

Andy and Ari react to the wild SEC match in Nashville between LSU and Vanderbilt. Commodores knock off LSU, 31-24. Watch here as Andy & Ari react to this wild game here.  Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.  This show is also sponsored by Modelo! Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut Butter and jelly. Macaroni andcheese. Modelo and college football. If you’re watching this, it means you live and breathe football. All season long. You know what that makes you? A Full-Time Fan. Which means you deserve a Modelo. Because football wouldn’t be the same without you. Modelo is the official beer sponsor of The College Football Playoff. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube here: https://youtube.com/live/06MeZSB3DFU Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to an instant reaction edition of Andy Noreon 3 presented by BetMGM and Ari you hear the sirens. Vanderbilt has beaten LSU and maybe we don't need the sirens for this because Vegas told us this was going to happen. But still, it is somewhat shocking to our lizard brains to see Vanderbilt running out the clock on the goal line in complete control of a a game that they controlled for most of the game. Is there like some sort of like weird, supernatural, like every time Vanderbilt pops up and is good, something bad has to happen to Penn State, or is that just like in my imagination?

Like I don't know like what's going on with the, you know, what happened when they beat Bama last year? Well, it's the second year because James Franklin had two good years of Andy and then left. Oh, that's what I'm getting at. I'm going to put Diego, Pavia number one of my Heisman ballot tomorrow, Andy. He is Pete dog.

Ty Simpson, who out dual Diego Povia, may have something to say about that, but he is a dog. Yeah, but, you know, just like being the face of a program that doesn't typically win these games, they don't even storm the field when they win. It was expected that they won, and they took care of business based on out playing a team that has every athlete resource available to mankind. Like, before we get into the inevitable Brian Kelly. is going to join James Franklin on the Can't Get Over the Hump hot seat conversation for the remainder of the year. I just wanted to make sure that we gave Vanderbilt its due because we did have an emergency.

Well, I think we have to, we have to give Vanderbiltz do. Like, this is not a, it's interesting because we talked about this before we decided to do this, this live instant reaction. And it's, do we do it if LSU wins? And I was like, yeah, because if LSU wins, it'll be actually kind of shocking at this point. This was in the fourth quarter. and part of this is Vandy. It's not just LSU.

It's not just is Brian Kelly starting to fall into trouble in Baton Rouge. It is Vanderbilt is legit good. Their one loss is at Alabama. They played well in that game. I mean, basically the Alabama attacks on a late touchdown to cover from J.M. Miller, but Vanity Alabama was a tight game for most of the game. This is a good team. Like, they should not, we laughed at Diego Povey when he said national championship when he came back and he did all the interviews in the off season.

We should not be laughing at them having playoff aspirations. They keep playing like they did today. They can make the playoff. Yeah. And I mean, this will be their first quality win, right? I don't know what else. There's nothing on their resume at the moment. The South Carolina win probably isn't going to look all that great.

And I mean, LSU's in the same boat there. I don't know that this win will look all that great in a month. but for the time being, like Vanderbilt probably is worthy of a top 10 ranking. Well, sure, and the thing is, like, Vandy's going to have to earn it. Look at the rest of that schedule. Missouri, Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee. Like, they're going to have to earn this. But if they play the way they did today, they can play with any of those teams that I just mentioned.

So Vandy is in great shape. And it's kind of the way they won this game. And this is what we talked about on Monday in the pick show. And On 3 posted a clip of that pick show. on Friday or in and it was very similar to when they posted the clip of us saying that indiana was going to cover against organ now we didn't say indiana was going to beat organ straight up but people lost their minds on that clip people lost their minds on this clip too which was strange to me because i felt like the ls u fans had been kind of overwhelmingly negative about their own team

and wouldn't be that surprised that people would say yeah we're not surprised that vandy's favored in this game but this is exactly how vegas said this would play out i mean i mean I mean, if anybody has been paying attention this season, LSU has looked fractured all year. I mean, obviously we didn't see that fracture in the opening game against Clemson because of our perceptions of what Clemson was. And, you know, we viewed that as a hard fought top five win that would have set up nicely as a resume piece going into a playoff run. And then as Clemson turned out to be what they are and LSU continued to like kind of flutter through the season, it's just like their offense isn't very good. And I don't know what's going on with Garrett Nussmeyer. He looked hobbled again.

Well, his ankle was messed up from last week, and he was doing his best. I mean, like, Garrett Nussmeier is tough, and he's going to keep playing until he can't play anymore. And I don't really put this as much on LSU's offense as I do on LSU's defense. I thought Vanderbilt did a good job against them. When they needed points, Vanderbilt marched down the field. Like, not just fluky plays, not there wasn't like a weird pick six in this game. This was Vanderbilt running all the way down the field on LSU's defense, converting

key third downs, converting four. There was a fourth down conversion in there where Diego Pobby is basically just a magician. And they couldn't stop them when they had to stop them. And that's something that LSU's defense has not been the problem this year. His offense has been the problem. Elsie's offense was hitting explosive plays, but the defense could not get bandy off the field in the important moments. Yeah. LSU's offense scored 17 points and 7

on a fluke, a beautiful like tipped past drill. Yeah. That who scored on that play? It was Xavier Anton. Oh, this is Xavier Anton. You know, the point of Thomas also broke

five tackles on that play. So that counts too. Yeah, no, it certainly does. But, you know, I just, there's just something and off with them, Andy. And for what they were supposed to be this year, we're not even in the same galaxy. And I know that they were five and one heading into the weekend. And I understand that they were, you know, kind of in a position where they could still be a top 10 team and all those different things. But, you know, at the same time, it just we could see through the record

through everything that it wasn't, it wasn't what it was. And we saw it again today in the loss. It's those next, too. Which, so LSU gets Texas A&M in Vatn Rouge, and then they play at Alabama. they're going to have to beat one of the two, like those look like the two best teams in the SEC so far. We'll see what, and maybe Ole Miss is in that mix too, and they've already lost to them. But two of the best teams in the SEC, they get next. If they don't win one of those games, they are out of the playoff hunt. I'm sorry, if they lose any, either of those games, they're out of the playoff hunt. If they lose both those games, you're looking at four losses again at minimum. And then what, what do you do with Brian Kelly, whose buyout is ginormous? But

now ginorous buyouts don't seem so daunting post James Franklin. Yeah, and I don't know if the James Franklin is the beginning of a trend or a desperate program willing to write a check based on a clause on the contract that will have some of that expense offset by a future employment. There is no clause in Brian Kelly's contract like that. It is fully guaranteed, no offset you pay him. That's the money you pay him. I think that that math makes this in Penn State very different.

Yeah. So I don't know if we're at that point yet where he could get fired, but certainly I think that this is the, this is what is the tipping point for LSU fans in terms of whether or not they're ready to see a change because, you know, we're in, they were down when they were five and one. Like they, yeah,

the thing about LSU fans, because they've been through this before, and they have very high standards, understandably so because their last three head coaches before Brian Kelly won national titles within four years, they understand what it looks like. They probably know better than Brian Kelly what it looks like. And so they know what it doesn't look like as well,

and it doesn't look like this. And so even though LSU is currently still mathematically alive to make the college football playoff, the LSU fans were done after the Ole Miss loss. Because they saw that and they said, okay, this is never going to get where we want to go. Yeah. And I just think that too, like October 18th,

technically alive for the playoff is true for a lot of teams that have underwhelmed. And I don't think that, like, technically alive for the playoff really gets it done for me anymore. It's what is this team? And, like, they're not it, period. Like, and technically alive for the playoff means that there would have to be a massive turnaround or a completely different team that drops out there in the middle of the year. And, you know, it happens sometimes, but it's rare. Like, that's not something that, you know, you see very often.

A team is one thing. And then all of a sudden in the second half of the year, they turn into a juggernautton. that beats the crap out of everybody. LSU was not it this year, period. So, and I think that Brian Kelly, it's funny, Andy, because we talked about what Kurt Signetti is doing at Indiana, and I feel like he has kind of been the poster child

because Indiana broke through and made the playoff last year. But when you think about some of the programs that, if you would have done like a ranking of the 2018, in 2018, the five most hopeless programs in college football, three of those programs, excuse me, would have been Indiana. Vanderbilt in Kansas. Kansas had a pretty exciting

year two years ago. They're certainly not as bad as they used to be. Indiana is now in the top three and seems like they've got a golden ticket to the college football playoff, and now Vanderbilt is on a one-lost team heading into the end of October and controlling its own destiny potentially in the SEC

race. And it's just like LSU is a team that wins national championships to matter who their head coaches. How many years does Brian Kelly need to put a really good team on the field? Period. Well, it hasn't happened. You you can't make any excuses if you're Brian Kelly. You can't blame Ed Orgeron for any of this. This is all you're doing.

This is your team. Good or bad. This is your team. And so I think the other thing is Clark Lee, probably more so than Kurt Signetti, is killing the coaches that make the excuses. Because this is year four for Clark Lee. But he took over absolute abject misery.

He took over a program that could not win. in the conference that was so far beneath the rest of its conference. And now he has it as one of the best teams in the conference. And the most ironic part about the whole thing is that Vanderbilt wasn't on a four-year plan. No. Vanderbilt wanted to be semi-competitive in year four. Yeah.

They didn't want to be good in beating LSU convincingly at home in year four. Yeah, this is not part of the original plan. The Diego Pavia and you know, Tim Beck and Jerry Kill accelerated the original plan. But you're right. But nobody can make the excuses.

So Brian Kelly can't make that excuse. Billy Napier can't make that excuse. Lincoln Riley can't make that excuse. None of these coaches that have not lived up to what they were hired to do can make that excuse. There's no excuse in your four. It is your team. It's your roster. You did this.

And you aren't just losing games. You are losing games to teams that are frankly. better than you. Right. That's the other part of this. Vanderbilt is better than LSU. Vanderbilt was favored by Vegas because they're better than LSU. They beat LSU because they're better than LSU. And if you're an LSU fan hearing that, it's unacceptable. And like, that's the distinction that, you know, you have to make. Like, do we think that, I mean, we know that teams lose to teams that aren't as good all the time. And that's unacceptable. Like, I don't think that anybody would tell you that they believe that Northwestern is.

a better team than Penn State. Okay. Vanderbilt's better, period. Yeah. End of story. Yep. Yep. And the thing is, now you've got to play Texas A&M, which is better than you, and Alabama, which is better than you.

Yep. I mean, you might be the seventh, sixth best team in your own conference in year four. That's just not going to get it done in Baden Williams. Are they the sixth best? Let's do it. Let's do it. Okay. Who's the best team in the SEC?

I'm pulling up the SEC standings right now because I've got no ability. to recall anything. I'd say it's probably Ole Miss or Alabama or Texas A&M, one of those three. So we can say those are those are the top three. Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas, A&M. So they're better than LSU. Vanderbilt is better than LSU. We just said that.

So that's four. Is Georgia better than LSU? Probably. Five. Is Tennessee better than LSU? I think the jury's out on that one. Okay. Is Oklahoma better than LSU?

jury's out on that but I think they play we'll find out at the end of the year is Texas out better than LSU juries out on that but I think they could beat them okay so they are they're number six at best at best that is not acceptable at LSU not acceptable to place where Nick Saban came in and won a national title less Miles took over won a national title Ed O's Ron took over and won a national title. Brian Kelly's going to go through four years. He's not going to win a national title or even sniff one. He's not even going to make the playoff.

Yep. I mean, I could be wrong. They could go on a miracle run, but if they lose one more game, he's not making the playoff. I think you could just be wrong. Just say they're not making the playoff. And if they do, then they can play the clip and make fun of us when something remarkable happened.

You know, we don't have to. And they will all the time. I'm like, well, they could. They're done. They're not going, period. And then hopefully I'll be in a hype video if it happens. But, you know, that's how we get in all the high videos. We're not going to be in the business of projecting or not saying what's out there.

And like LSU is just, it's just not it, man. And it's frustrating for them because they are in a situation, like you said, it is a different buyout. Remember, all buyouts are structured differently. The buyout for Brian Kelly's enormous. I don't have the exact number off the top of my head, but it's in the 60s. So similar to the James Franklin bio was in the 40s, actually. So this is, this is in the neighborhood of Mike Norvell's buyout. It's in the neighborhood of Jimbo Fisher's buyout at Texas A&M, which was completed. Mike Norvels at Florida State has not happened, and we don't know if it will happen. But in all of these cases, unlike James Franklin, there is no duty to mitigate. There is no offset language. If you pay that person the buyout, that is what you pay them. They don't, if they get another job, it doesn't take it off the ledger. You still have to pay. So, that's, That is what makes this one more complicated.

But again, Ari, he's going to be the coach next year? Like, you're good at this. Do you think that they could come up with that money or that they'll be trying to? I think they'll be trying to, but that's a lot of freaking money, Ari. That's so much money. Yeah. And I know I said the math changed. Like, when we had Matt Jones on two weeks ago, and he said Kentucky's prepared to buy out Mark Stoops,

even though $37 million, within 30 days of the firing, no offset on that one either. I said every buyouts on the table now. I need to just follow my own advice because I said that and then Franklin happened. So I'm just going to say every buyouts on the table. So I don't know if he's the coach there next year or not. Because look, if they only lose one more game, they're nine and three.

I don't think you fire Brian Kelly. How rare are the offset duty to mitigate causes in the contracts? Are those common or rare? They're common everywhere with the SEC. In the SEC ADs just get knocked in the creek. okay yeah because like again i mean james franklin was on college game day this morning like talking about like taking a deep breath but he's probably going to be a coach somewhere as soon as it sounded like he wants a job and yeah so but that's the thing you know you could you could try

to rehome brian kelly but who's going to hire him right now no especially not at competitive financial figures right not at a not at a place where he'd make the same amount of money and he'd be in an equal level of prestige of this job. If I'm him, I just stay in this job and do the best I can. If they fire me, they fire me. I'll take all that money. You know, it's, they paid a contract that was for the amount in years and guarantee that you would pay somebody like Nick Saban. Yes, because he was at Notre Dame and you had to get him away from Notre Dame. So, you know, I think that USC did something similar with Lincoln Riley. And they're in a similar boat, but I think they feel a little bit better about

the future. And also, USC is not in the same boat as LSU, where USC did win national titles at the beginning of this century, but it's pretty clear that what Pete Carroll did there was very special that nobody else could do that. USC was more desperate to become relevant again than LSU should have been. Correct. And LSU, the fact, like, see, I think Gettor's runs a better coach than people give them credit for. I agree. But the general consensus is that if Ed Orsran can win a national title, there are anybody can't. No, he's a really good coach.

But there's a lot of really good coaches. If you put a really good coach at LSU, theoretically, you should be in the hunt for the national title almost every year. The fact that they're where they're at right now with Brian Kelly is actually very shocking to me because I thought post-2016, which was a terrible year for him at Notre Dame, he revamped his staff. They came back a lot better. I thought he was doing great at Notre Dame and the move to the SEC where you can recruit from the entire pool of everybody where you can take every transfer you want

you're at a place where they're willing to spend money. I just assumed they're going to compete for national titles every year. When he won the SEC West his first year, it was like, okay, they're going to be in the playoff in year two. They're going to be playing for national titles, year two, year three. The fact that we're sitting here in year four

and now it looks like they might not make the playoffs, off, it's pretty shocking to me. It's shocking to me, too. And I'm thinking back to the 2021 coaching carousel where, you know, Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly were a part of it. And that's when the James Franklin extension happened. Like, are any of them panned out yet? No, but you know who did pan out?

Clark Lee. That's pretty good. You know who panned out? Mario Cristobal. All the same year, by the way. Yeah, Mario Cristobal panned out. And that was also another. You know who also panned out in that year?

Mike Elko at Duke. Yeah. Maybe the guy you really need is not the most famous guy. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good point. But it's really hard because you as the AD put your head on the chopping block when you do that. Scott Woodward, when he hired Brian Kelly, slam dunk, can't miss.

You know who Scott Woodward hired and his last football coach hired before Brian Kelly, right? Who? Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. That's right. Can't miss. Can't fail. Yeah. When you pay that much money, you literally cannot fail.

Like that, it's just like not worth it. Nobody, like, at least Jimbo Fisher had a national title. Yes. But I thought Brian Kelly's resume was just fine. I had no problem with that hire. I'm not going to, I'm not going to go back in time and say I didn't like that hire. I love that hire. I thought LSU was going to be great by now.

they're not i'm with you so we'll see what happens the rest of the way but a and m off week alabama you better win both of them you figured out yep no pressure no pressure no pressure