Andy & Ari On3 - Week 5 Picks: Coach Prime’s Colorado vs. Caleb Williams and USC | Kansas-Texas | Notre Dame-Duke

Episode Date: September 28, 2023

Week 5 Picks: Coach Prime’s USC vs. Caleb Williams and Colorado | Kansas-Texas | Notre Dame-DukeToday’s show is sponsored by Fanduel! Visit Fanduel.com/Staples and use the promo code Staples. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Thank you to FanDuel* for delivering the lines for this week's slate of games!Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and don't forget to subscribe!https://youtube.com/live/RIuOHYGQWV4We have a little bit of news to get to before the picks. Mel Tucker will officially be fired with cause, and the College Football Playoff Committee Met to discuss its future format (0:00-14:05)Ralph Russo of The Associated Press joins Andy to pick this week’s games against the spread. (14:05-16:51) On to the games…Georgia at Auburn (+14.5) Total: 46.5 (16:52-21:18)Utah at Oregon State (-3.5) Total: 44.5 (21:19-26:12)Florida at Kentucky (-1.5) Total: 44.5 (26:13-34:18)Clemson at Syracuse (+6.5) Total: 53.5 (34:19-39:34)USC at Colorado (+21.5) Total: 73.5 (39:35-47:28)Kansas at Texas (-16.5) Total: 63.5 (47:29-52:53)Michigan at Nebraska (+17.5) Total: 39.5 (52:54-54:59)LSU at Ole Miss (+2.5) Total: 67.5 (55:00-1:00:59)Michigan State at Iowa (-12.5) Total: 36.5 (1:01:00-1:06:50) Notre Dame at Duke (+5.5) Total: 51.5 (1:06:51-1:10:11)South Carolina at Tennessee (-12.5) Total: 63.5 (1:10:12-1:12:13)Washington at Arizona (+17.5) Total: 68.5 (1:12:14-1:18:51)* Must be 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visitFanDuel.com/RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia, or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call [phone] for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.

Welcome to Andy Staples on 3. It is a picks show. We have a very special guest joining us tonight. Ralph Russo from the Associated Press will be our guest picker and should be a lot of fun. I have rebounded. Remember, I was 0-8. I wasn't really 0-8. I was actually 4-9 that week, but according to the graphic that we put out with 8 picks on it, I was 0-8. I was actually 4-9 that week, but according to the graphic that we put out with eight picks on it, I was 0-8. So we put eight picks out in a graphic last week. I was 5-3. Not too bad.

Not perfect, though. So we will strive for perfection again tonight. We got some really good games to pick. Ralph Russo of the Associated Press joining us, one of our more dedicated listeners in podcast form. He usually listens about four or five days late, so I get texts about something I said four or five days ago, and I don't remember saying it, but I said it, and then I'm like, oh, wait, I said that on the show days and days ago.

So Ralph will be able to check me in real time now. So this will be this will be a pleasure for both of us because I will actually remember saying the thing that he's mad about. So. Before we get to Ralph, got a little bit of news. Michigan State has officially fired Mel Tucker for cause. We knew this was going to happen. Because of the way that everything's set up, they had to, a week ago, say, we're going to fire you for cause in a week. And so they did that on Wednesday.

He's been fired for cause. Also, whole set of college football playoff meetings wrapped up and nothing substantive happened. Although Bill Hancock said something that made me very mad in retrospect. For that, I will bring on our pal, our buddy, Ralph Russo of the Associated Press. What's up, Ralph? Bill made you mad.

Nobody gets mad. It's not Bill's fault. Bill didn't do anything wrong oh bill bill reminded me of something that just made me mad in retrospect so let me be your therapist here okay i'm gonna i need this okay so remember when they put out the plan for the 12-team playoff, when they said, here's the model. This was 2021. It was a long time ago, Andy.

And they said, if we approve this thing, we might be able to do the expanded one by 2023. That's a good point. It was supposed to start. It was supposed to be this year. Right. And then the Big Ten played the ACC and the pac-12 like a fiddle and they delayed this thing yeah yeah that's what happened we could have a 12 team playoff this year

when there might actually be 10 teams that could win the national title what are you doing? It's so interesting you bring that up because I had this conversation on the AP Top 25 College Football Podcast, to plug it, earlier this week with a guy we both are friends with, Doug LaMaurice. Oh, yeah. A former longtime print reporter, now in the podcast game himself in Ohio, covers Ohio State. And we had the conversation, how many teams do you think, not can win the playoff, because that's a little bit,

that's a touchy conversation. That's a little harder. How many teams do you think can win a playoff game? Right now. If you had to think right now, how many teams do you think are capable of winning at least one playoff game? Well, let's see. Can I help you work this out?

Yeah, let's go down the list. So Georgia, sure. Ohio State, sure. Michigan, sure. Penn State, sure. USC, Washington, Oregon. Yeah, USC, Washington, Oregon. Okay, USC, Washington, Oregon. Okay, that's good.

I would say go back to the SEC. You want to give them LSU? Yeah, they could win a game. And then Florida State could win a game in the playoff. You want to go Bama or no? Yeah, right now. I think I'd go Bama too. I'd go Texas.

Yeah. Maybe Oklahoma. I don't know if I'd go Bama too. I'd go Texas. Yeah. Maybe Oklahoma. I don't know if I'd rule out Oklahoma. I'd put Oklahoma in there right now. Their defense looks better. So, yeah, I love that. I think we got up to 12 that can win a playoff game. And we didn't even have Utah, by the way, initially.

And then I kind of put in Utah because I was afraid of the Utah fans coming after me, frankly. Well, like a fully healthy Utah. Exactly. Certainly seems like a team that could win a playoff. And remember, winning a playoff game does not mean you can win the national title. Sure. Could the team we think is going to be 12 beat the team we think is going to be 5? Well, that gets into a different conversation

if you want to swing this back to the playoff and what they're talking about. Because the thing that's being, it wasn't talked about this week, but it is being considered is the idea of, hey, if we only have nine conferences here instead of 10, do we need six conference champions?

Maybe we can push that back down to five. There's a lot of stuff obviously still going on out West with the Pac-2 and the Mountain West and what those schools do going forward. You know, Andy, the idea of a two-team conference, like that's becoming more and more, I think, a possibility possibility I don't know if it's a big possibility but I'm starting to think that that actually could has the possibility of happening next I want it so bad and and here's what I think they should do they should either play multiple times like if you're gonna do it well you have to just a matter of how many either no either play once or play three times I think I think you go three times you play matter how many. No, either play once or play three times. I think you go three times.

You play once in Corvallis, you play once in Pullman, and then you play another time in Vegas where you roll out the Pac-12 championship field and play on that. Well, yeah, you'd have to play three. Right, you play two in the regular season in a championship game is what you're saying. I think the fear, the reason why I don't think it will happen or it's unlikely to happen, I think their fear is they might have to play like six times or eight times.

And, you know, it's hard to sell tickets to that. Like, I don't think you can pull that off and expect your fan base to be receptive to that. But anyway, there's that being up in the air still in the PAC 12 out West is the reason why they can't make a definitive decision. The playoff guys on six automatic bids, you know, call them automatic bids or five for champions. And I think it's going to get bumped down to five if there are only nine conferences. But the other thing is, I mean,

as we've learned from this playoff stuff there's never a deadline and this is actually something that really isn't that urgent like they could get this thing settled in january and it would be sure yeah it wouldn't wouldn't really change anything i think they're going to go down to to five automatic bids mike oresko from the american came out in favor of that yesterday, which he's horse trading basically. He kind of clarified his statement and said, listen, I would prefer to stay at six for the next two years. Now, again, your listeners are deep in the weeds with this stuff because they're massive college football fans. So you've heard a lot of times, like guys like me and Andy say, there is no contract for 2026, right?

There's no 2026. There's no college football playoff for 2026. That still needs to sort of be decided. So I think what Oresko says is, listen, I can still fight for that six in 2024 and 2025. I may not get it, but I should fight for it. I'm more concerned about making sure we have at least five in 2026 because the fear there is I get none. They turn around and say, no, no, no, we're doing 12, 12 and nothing. Right. And you got to be careful if you're a Resco because your league is not as strong as it was among the group of five leagues.

The Sun Belt has gotten considerably stronger. And let's say the most logical thing happens and Oregon State and Washington State merge with the Mountain West. You could do it under the Pac-12 banner, call it like the Pac-14 or whatever you want to call it. But that would probably be a stronger league than the American has currently constituted as well. Especially with considering Oregon State and Washington essentially have a head start, right? I think the fears in Pullman and Corvallis these days are what becomes of us in a few years, like after a few years of not having this revenue that we will possibly like slide back. I think the, but I think in the initial transition, those schools are going to be pretty well situated to do very well in whatever conference they land in. Again, most likely some kind of amalgamation of the Mountain West and Pac-12. Yeah.

So, I mean, I think that's what's going to happen. It's going to be four power conferences, and they will get the automatic bids probably. I mean, they're not going to codify it that way. Remember, that is what the ACC and Big Ten and Pac-12 were trying to have done, which would have been stupid because it opens you up to a lawsuit. But they're not going to do that. It's just going to be the five highest ranked conference champs, most likely.

I think so. And so that's fine. Just wake us up when you do that. I don't really care about the machinations of this. We could have had it already. And we just gave you 12 teams. But again, I think that you have to remember that 12 team is going to be a G5 team. And I got to say, you know, listen, I'm not one to trash the G5.

I like having that access. Not looking that strong this year. Right. I think that's a concern, too. If I was in one of those conferences, one of my fears would be, we're going to have the 12-team playoff in 2024 and 2025. If my G5 teams aren't very good, aren't really like high caliber making the playoff, and there is two years of evidence of the 12-5 game being a blowout,

that's going to be used against me in those rooms. Yeah, they need one of those games to be good. Yeah, they definitely need those games to be competitive. Let's say it was Fresno State, which they're playing very well this year. They look like one of the best teams in the Mountain West. They shut out Arizona State. They beat Purdue.

If it were them, and they were very competitive against the the five seed then you feel pretty good about that yeah so you need to build a case you're gonna need to build a little bit of a case or again come the next wave of this thing you know you're gonna have sankey and some of the others saying like listen what why are we giving you this spot after 35-3 and 42-14? And part of that could be luck of the draw. I mean, the way this thing's situated, it's conceivable the second best team doesn't win a conference, but the number five seed is Ohio State. Right.

A really, really good Ohio State team that in normal circumstances would have been number two in the country. We've had years in the past with – I think that's going to be most years where the five seed is the second best team in the country. Or at least the third. Because the SEC might have the best two teams or the Big Ten might have the best two teams given the year.

And that's where that team's going to come from. It's going to be one of those two conferences. So that we'll see, but I, yeah, retroactively pissed because this would have been a great year for the 12 team playoff. I think so. Yeah, I think so too. I think this would have been a really good year for it. Jim Phillips and George Klyavkov.

Why did you look Kevin Warren in the eyes? And it was so silly. It seems silly at the time, and it seems even sillier now. It's one of those decisions that you questioned at the time, and then with the ability to look back on it with little hindsight, it actually looks worse. It looks like an even worse decision. I do enjoy just pulling up clips from the press conference randomly. They look so earnest. They even had a background, right? They had all the blue notes on the background.

They all knew they were full of crap. They weren't doing anything substantive. They knew it. Yeah. I mean, listen, on a serious note, it was such a bad, it was a miscalculation for the ACC, but it was a devastating miscalculation for the Pac-12. Right. If that doesn't happen and this is a 12-teen year, does the Pac-12 still exist beyond this year? It's a legitimate question. but it was also part of the um it was almost like a peace agreement right it was as a peace accord we're not going to pilfer other

conference days that worked out well right but but for the pac-12 it was especially it was an especially bad move because they should have been the well i don't want to relitigate this we all we've been there we know yeah we know if they'd move faster they should have moved faster on the big 12 and they didn't and they let themselves be you know be eaten by the big 12 so anyway here we are yeah all right great but the football's been great ball has been great and we're going to talk about the football now that that's what we're going for the rest of the show we're going to talk about the football because that's the best part of this. So we're going to pick these games, all these lines,

this show brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Go to FanDuel.com slash staples. You place a $5 bet, $200 in bonus bets guaranteed for new customers. They got spreads, player props, over-unders, more. All the spreads you're going to see tonight, all the totals you're going to see tonight come from FanDuel. They're an official partner of the NFL.

They are on the college football lines. There's some really interesting lines this week, as we will talk about. Ralph and I will get into this, but there are some lines that feel very tricky, that feel like they know where these games are going to land. I cannot wait to see how close they get. Again, go to fanduel.com slash staples. $200 in bonus bets for new customers guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $200 in bonus bets.

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Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org.chat in Connecticut. 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700, or visit KS Gambling Help in Kansas. 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana. Visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Visit 1-800-GAMBLER.NET in West Virginia, or call 1-800-770-STOP in Louisiana. Visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Visit 1-800-GAMBLER.net in West Virginia or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming.

Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. Disclaimer done. FanDuel.com slash staples. $NY in New York. Disclaimer done. FanDuel.com slash Staples. $200 in guaranteed bets when you place a $5 bet. Let us talk about these lines, Ralph, because... I don't want to hijack your show, Andy, but can I bring up the first game?

Because you're talking about weird lines or interesting lines. Yes, that's what you were headed in my direction, Ralph. So I'm not going to do the upset. I know you teased the upset. We're going to do the upset. I know you tease the upset. We're going to save that one. But the interesting line to me, the one that I went, what do they know? Georgia Auburn. That's not what I was thinking.

OK, I was thinking, OK, let's go there. Yes, because you got 14 and a half. I've seen it even down to as low as maybe 12, maybe 12 and a half, but maybe it popped back up. So it's moved around just a little, just a little. But even at 14 and a half, I found myself going, I watched Auburn play football last week. I watched Auburn try to pass the ball last week, Andy.

My eyes were bleeding. I know you, Freeze, will figure it out eventually. It's early on. He's a good offensive coach. He will get that thing figured out. But Auburn's offense, especially Auburn's passing game, is a disaster. And I can't imagine that it's going to get a whole lot better against Georgia. So I was expecting that line to be much closer to 20. But again, Vegas tends to know. I will also say this. I like to check in on a few of my analytics buddies and see how they have it. It's around that 14. So this is one where I'm going to trust my eyes and I'm going to lay them points and take the dogs. But I will say like,

clearly somebody knows something here because it didn't look right to me. That 14 and a half didn't look right to me after what I saw at Auburn against Texas A&M. Yeah. And you had Hugh Freeze all week saying, hey, don't blame Peyton Thorne for this. We got to coach him up a little better. But then also he's holding a ball too long or there are receivers getting open and we're not hitting him. Aub's defense is opportunistic we know that and maybe that's the thinking is yeah that there will be some quick momentum change that Auburn may either either score a defensive touchdown or get a short field that the offense can punch in a couple of easy points. I don't know though. I I'm with you on this. I don't see it.

And the thing is we've yet to see a fast start from Georgia. What happens if we get a fast start from Georgia? That's sort of what I'm thinking too. Like they, we haven't seen the best of Georgia yet. And you got to think like the Auburn game is about the time when the Bulldogs say, okay, let's just show you what we can do here. So Burley in the chat, South Carolina almost whooped Georgia. No, they didn't. They were winning 14 to three at halftime. You had the

cameras in the locker room at halftime. Georgia wasn't panicked at all. And they came out and whooped him in the second half. Yeah. Georgia just shut it down. I mean, they just completely shut down South Carolina in the second half. And I just wonder again, like, Georgia hasn't played anybody except South Carolina. And I just, I don't know. Like, it's just a weird start for Georgia to the extent where I don't know how much they're just maybe a little, not necessarily disinterested, but they're trying some things out.

They're using walk-ons. I would say this, the one red, like slight red, maybe it's not a red flag. Maybe it's like a pink flag. Georgia hasn't run the ball that well. Not for Georgia, not against these type of teams. They have not come out and really, really run the ball at a very high level.

I kind of want to see that this week. I just feel like we're going to get a crisp Georgia game at some point. I think so, too. And then Katie bar the door. That's the problem. Steven in the chat, is there any best from Georgia? Going to be interesting, but I tend to think Auburn's not going to stay within 14 and a half. We're with you, Steven.

I don't see it. I just can't picture how Auburn does this unless the offense suddenly comes to life and against Georgia's defense. Like, how's that going to happen? That's what I keep thinking. Like to cover that, you probably need to get at least 10. Like, right. And like, I'm not sure that's a given. So now we're talking okay like reasonably if you get to 14 you're probably covering that even assuming you put together a really good offensive effort so i don't know yeah again to me that line screamed what do you know that i don't and again often that's a lot often a lot of people know a lot of things that i don't especially out in vegas yeah so but i'll go with my eyes on that.

Well, and you texted me this earlier. We're going to get a wacky result this weekend that nobody else sees coming. And maybe that's it. I'll throw another weird line at you. Sure. Friday night in Corvallis, Utah at Oregon State. Oregon State's a three-and- and a half point favorite in this game. By the way, you were looking live at the Weather Channel app. Could be rain.

It's supposed to rain Friday in Corvallis. It might be done raining by the 6 p.m. local kick. But that one could be a little sloppy. And we still don't know about the Cam Rising situation. If I had to guess, if he didn't play Saturday against UCLA, he's probably not playing Friday. Short week on the road. At Oregon State.

Brant Keithy hasn't played yet. So the two best offensive players for Utah have not played, and I don't know that we're going to see them. And so I guess what Vegas is saying is Oregon State coming back, wanting to show that it is better than what it showed against Washington State, which they gave up a big lead. They stormed back, but they came up short. What happens here, I think, is a very low scoring game. Like the total in this game is 44 and a half, which is fairly low,

but I'm, I'm wondering if it's under that. Not only because of the pretty good defense, the Oregon state's defense did have good defenses. Yeah. Oregon state's defense did not show last week, but I don't know if that matters for this game because especially with whether it's without Cam Rising or it's with a Cam Rising playing for the first time this year, Utah's offense is not Washington State's offense. So I think Oregon State can play this game in a phone booth. In fact, again, not just the qualities, the offense, the defense, but the way these teams play. Utah, I think, is the team of September.

The fact that they have beaten three Power Five teams without their starting quarterback is remarkable. It's a testament to how well coached that team is. It's a testament to their identity. It's, to a certain degree, a testament to their culture. They have milked out three wins here. It's to a certain degree a testament to their culture. They have milked out three wins here. It's remarkable to me. But it's also stylistically the way they're playing. They're slowing the game down. They're only throwing 20-odd passes a game. They're definitely trying to manage their way to victories. I just think on the road against a pretty good team that just lost last week,

I think you're expecting a lot for them to manage their way to a victory in Corvallis. It is going to be tough. Vegas didn't give you the ultimate bait. They didn't make Oregon State a home dog on a weeknight. I'm very, very big on home dogs on weeknights, but this is not that. They are the favorite. I'm still taking Utah, Ralph. Really? I believe in Kyle Whittingham. I think they've done a pretty fabulous job this year.

Now, this may be where it ends. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe DJU and the Beavers just sort of mash on them. Because again, both of these teams are going to want to play this game in a phone booth. But I think Utah should be able to score more on Oregon State than they scored on UCLA. And the defense might be able to score again. The defense scored against UCLA. Maybe that helps.

Listen, never underestimate Utah. It's as simple as that. I think they have proven over the years when you do underestimate them, that's when they rise up. So I'll go against you here. I'll give up even the three and a half. That's a lot. Suddenly that was another line that I think moved up. It was one and a half I think when I picked it in print it was one and a half um and my and I think I was he was thinking a little more like okay Oregon State's a little bit of a safer bet here now at three and a half maybe not so much but I just keep wondering like if Rising plays what are we getting that's the other thing that keeps coming back to me on Utah well and that's the thing is it it is it the cam rising we're used to where he plays this very reckless style damn

the torpedoes i'm just gonna you know take off running every possible opportunity like i would worry about a guy who just came off acl surgery doing that so that's why they haven't played him yet right they need six or seven design runs out of him a game to yeah kind of do what they do and if you eliminate that you know even if even if he gets there long term as the season goes on and eventually at the end of the year they he they he he comes back and they re-implement him in a way that's sort of the full cam rising experience. But to think again, this week on a wet field on the road, I think it's a little much.

All right. We talked about checking in with our analytics pals. Let's go to a game where the analytics and the line don't match. So Florida at Kentucky. Kentucky is a one and a half point favorite. If you go to our friend Parker Fleming site and you check out his CFB graphs and you get the one sheet for this game, Kentucky would be a six and a half point favorite based on the expected points added and all those different stats. That is a big gap. You've got a five-point gap between both of those things. And my problem with this is I don't know what Kentucky is yet because they haven't played anybody particularly good. We had Nick Roush from Kentucky Sports Radio on yesterday's show.

He kind of scared me because I'm thinking Kentucky's just messing around a little bit, but they haven't played. But he said there's just some straight boneheaded stuff going on offensively sometimes and they'll look great and then they'll have a period of a few plays where it's just a disaster. And that scares me in a game like this because that's how you commit turnovers or have that just crippling play that allows the other team to score something easy. Yeah. So here's my – I'm wondering if Kentucky is similar to Michigan.

Hear me out for a second. Okay. I haven't really played anybody who's tested them. Playing at an incredibly slow pace. Go look at Kentucky's plays per game. They're barely averaging 60 plays per game. They had one game against Eastern Kentucky where you're like, hey, what's going on? Now, listen, how much have either of us actually watched Kentucky this year? They have been so under the radar that you haven't even – Well, and like the Vandy game, you were going to watch that because they got beat by Vandy last year, but then they jump on them so quick.

It's like, okay, well, that's done. What I do see out of Kentucky, again, they're running very few plays, so clearly they're trying to play a game at a certain pace. Man, again, I'm just looking at numbers here. They're averaging third best yards per play in the SEC. They're gaining yards here. Their playmakers look good, Davis and Key. I'm seeing some good stuff here but you're right then Devin Leary's got five interceptions what's going on there

but I do wonder if Kentucky is just what we're thinking of is maybe Kentucky either starting slow or what's going on is them just deciding we're going to play at a really slow pace in these games where we know we can win. You're right. We don't know about Kentucky. I think that's the pace they want to play in all the games. They do. They do.

We don't know about Kentucky. We will learn a lot about them. But my guess is what we're going to learn about them is they're pretty good. So here's the deal with Florida. Looks bad against Utah. Looks good against Tennessee, but we don't really know what Tennessee is yet. Was efficient and ran the ball well against Tennessee.

Still have not wowed you through the air. So if Florida wins, it's probably because they moved the ball on the ground. I will tell you one key thing, and this was going to affect how i picked this game this came out within the last hour or so kingsley guacan's gonna play florida's center okay he's played in one game this season the tennessee game there was a marked difference in how they played offensively in that game now maybe that maybe that was Tennessee's defense, but he's had an ankle

injury. He had a setback after the Tennessee game, didn't play against Charlotte, but they're ready to play with him on Saturday. So because of that and that alone, I'm taking Florida to cover in this game. Yeah. Again, the funny thing is i'm looking to make sure because i don't want to give you picks that i make here and have them be different from what i actually did in print oh no no you're you're fully allowed we talked about this with casey smith last week she's like i don't want to lock myself into something on my own show i'm like don't worry you're not you can have both but i did pick did pick Kentucky to win in cover here. A relatively close game, you know, like 23-20, 24-21, something along those lines.

Again, it's a small number here. You know, again, I said I like what I'm seeing out of, like, the efficiency out of Kentucky. I do worry about where the plays are going to come from from Florida's passing game. Here's one thing, though. They may not. They may only come from the run game.

Here's the interesting part, though, about this game, sort of the underline. Forget about the stats and the matchups. And as you, as someone who was once a Gator tackling dummy and lives in Gainesville, the idea that the Kentucky game has become a barometer for Florida has got to be driving the Gators, Gator fans, out of their minds. And it is. This is a big sort of swing game. You win this game, and now if you're Florida, you're going, okay, we could have a pretty nice season here. But the simple fact that this rivalry, Florida once won 31 straight is now a swing game is now a game, like as a measuring stick game for Florida, that like, I that's gotta be unacceptable to Florida

fans. Ralph Kentucky's trying to win three in a row here. Three in a row. Yeah. I think it was 1977. The last time they won two in a row. I didn't even look up three in a row here three in a row yeah this is i think it was 1977 the last time they won two in a row i didn't even look up three in a row you could not have put what you said three in a row you you could not have put that anymore perfectly and you're exactly right yeah and so this is what i said after the tennessee game because everybody was was riding high and it was the Gators are back. The swamp is back. Everything is back. It all goes away if they lose to Kentucky.

Every inkling of that goes away if they lose to Kentucky. Yeah. And they do they do have to win this game or it will be doom and gloom again, which that's no way to be by the way that's part of the problem is that they are on this roller coaster up down up down can't be like hey sometimes you lose it happens but that's that's where they're at yeah i'm gonna pick them it may be the last time i pick them if they burn me on this one but I'm picking the Gators because they need this one and again Kingsley Glocken coming back I think he's he makes

a big difference yeah I'll take I'll take the other side of that I'll go with Kentucky to continue the misery but yeah this definitely is one of those like where for the Florida like this isn't a rivalry this is not supposed to be a rivalry. We just win this game. But again, I could see Kentucky making the misery or lighting the fuse again on Billy Napier with a win in this game. Exactly, exactly. And will it stay lit? Not if they go beat somebody they're not supposed to beat,

but then if it goes according to chalk and they did lose this game, then it gets ugly. But I think Florida will end up having a decent year here. I think they'll piece together something along the lines of – I mean, that's not going to be – it's not going to sound great for Florida. I've been saying seven and five. Yeah, I think it gets around six to seven, but not winning. I think for Florida fans, they think of it as like if we can't beat Kentucky, how would we ever get to seven?

And my answer to that is no, no, no. Kentucky might be pretty good. There still might be seven wins for you there, even losing to Kentucky. Yeah. There's a lot going on at noon, Ralph. There's a lot of psychic baggage going on at noon. We just mentioned a huge baggage game with florida kentucky clemson at syracuse syracuse is four and oh clemson is two and two clemson is a six and a

half point favorite on the road garrett schrader has been very efficient, averaging nine yards per pass attempt for the Orange. He is leading them in rushing at over six yards a carry. Meanwhile, Clemson coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Florida State where they led most of the game, did not trail until Florida State took the lead in overtime. Ralph, who you got? I'm going to take them points. I cannot see, though, Clemson going to 0-3 in the ACC. Like, I just can't get my arms around that.

But I see the way Schrader has played. Now, Syracuse has done this thing before. First of all, when I say they've done this thing before, they have stressed out Clemson a lot. They have stressed out Clemson a ton over the last few years. Now, we beat them once in about the last six years, but they have continually put Clemson in a vice and made them have to sweat out some victories. You're going into the Dome. Schrader is a good playmaker. Clemson, to me, is is a good playmaker i'd you know clemson to me is still a good team like i can't

imagine we get to the end of the year and clemson isn't in that like nine win range so again i can't see them starting the season oh and three but i also will i'm going to assume here that syracuse does this thing again to Clemson. And, you know, listen, it's a home dog. The dome gets loud. I'll take the six and a half because why wouldn't you not take the six and a half on a home team? So I keep telling myself that Clemson's a nine-win team also because I thought they put up a great fight against Florida State. Exactly. They looked still talented.

Let me throw some cold water on that. Nine and three means that they've won two of the following games. Notre Dame, North Carolina, Miami. Doesn't feel so certain when you put it like that, does it? Doesn't feel like so certain. But it also makes you feel like, boy, you really better beat Syracuse, huh? If you don't beat Syracuse, what does this season look like? Now, here's what I will say.

There was no quit in Clemson after the Duke game. They came very prepared for Florida State. Florida State's a better team than they are. They gave them a hell of a fight. I think Clemson's going to go to the Dome, and I think they're going to cover this spread. I don't know that they're going to be a nine win team. And even though after that game,

I said, Oh no, they can win the rest of their games. Oh, they could, they could win nine. I don't know if they can. I don't know if they can win two of Notre Dame,

North Carolina, Miami. And there may be another one in there that maybe NC state or something becomes tricky as well. But I do think they can cover here. Syracuse is four-0. They have looked good, but look at who they've beaten. Yeah, I don't think Syracuse is on the way toward a very big year, right? I don't think this is the start of 10-win, 9-win Syracuse.

My guess is, again, they'll probably settle in around that six win territory. Listen, even last year, they got off to a great start and barely squeaked into a bowl. I could see something like that happening again. But again, they're pretty healthy, coming in, good vibes in the dome. I could just see Clemson getting bogged down again in this game. I think Clemson will be fine. I actually think they're going to get better as the season goes on. I thought we saw them get better every week. And here's my thing with Syracuse. So one of the teams they've beaten is Western Michigan. That's the one that gave up 41 to Iowa. One of the teams they've beaten is Purdue.

We saw Purdue lose to Fresno state, which there's no shame in that. Wisconsin had the easiest time in the world with Purdue on Friday night. I didn't know. No spoiler makers this year. Yeah. So I think Clemson actually covers this fairly easily. Okay.

So I, I eagerly wait three 30 in the afternoon on Saturday when you're texting me like, ha ha. See, I told you. But no, I'm not giving up on them as a decent team this year. I do think the idea of a 10-win Clemson where they run the table, they're going to have to really get better to do that. But I think they can win this one by a touchdown.

Especially if you're like me and I think Miami might be good, Andy. Yeah, that's me too. I keep thinking that as well. Miami's got Clemson. Miami's got Florida State. Miami's got North Carolina. We can just keep that between you and I because I don't want to go down the road of this whole Miami is back thing.

I don't want that pinned on me. I don't think we're alone in that. I think, I think we're, we are legion at this point and suspecting that Miami might be good. Let us go to the feature game in the noon Eastern window. The one that's kicking off at 10 a.m. local time, USC at Colorado. Coach Prime against Caleb Williams. Holy mackerel. You know, I think the thing I was most interested in, well, there's a lot of things to be interested in about Coach Prime in Colorado. But the thing that I felt like coming into the season I was most interested in is

what does this look like after a loss, after maybe even a big loss? And I guess we're going to find out. Now, I think there's a real possibility this looks a little like last week. I don't think USC is as good on both lines. So that is good for Colorado. I think that gives Colorado the ability to maybe get into a little bit of a shootout here, a little bit more back and forth. I'm going to lay them points, I think. I'm going to lay those points. It's 21 and a half. That's a lot of points. I think in print, I actually took the 21 and a half.

So I'm going to take the 21 and a half. Wow. All right. With USC winning by like 18 to 20. I don't think it will be a close game. I think it might play out somewhat similarly, if not a little, if not even a little more of a comfortable win to the way USC looked with Arizona state, right. Where like, Hey,

is Arizona state going to come back here? No, USC just scored again. Oh, Hey, they just did bad USC going to come back here? No, USC just scored again. Oh, hey, they just – oh, bad USC tackling. What happened there? Oh, by the way, lights out in here. Bad USC tackling. What happened there? Now Arizona State just squeezes back again. So I think there could be a little bit of that going on in this game,

but I don't think USC is ever going to feel really threatened. Yeah, I felt like Arizona State would get within like 17 going on in this game, but I don't think USC is ever going to feel really threatened. Yeah. I felt like the Arizona state would get within like 17 and then USC would quickly score again. And you're like, okay, nevermind. But I do think Colorado is going to be able to score points in this game.

I think USC will be able to name its score in this game. So while I think Colorado might score as many as Arizona state did, they still might lose by more than three touchdowns. So I am going to take USC to cover here because I do think Caleb Williams is going to put on a show. I don't think Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley are going to go, hey, we got to win you the Heisman here. Got to get that second Heisman here.

But this is going to be mainstream America's first look at Caleb Williams this year. Cause I don't think most people were watching the PAC 12 network when they played San Jose state. And I don't think I did. I don't have the PAC 12 now. It's a long story, but I won't get it done. I had an old sponsor and an old login. So I did not have i did not even have to break any rules but but no i this is one where i think this will be the first real look at caleb williams now we're going to get multiple more looks at him we're going to get to see him against notre dame we're going to get to see him against utah we're going to get to see him against oregon but i think this is one where everybody's gonna be excited everybody's gonna be watching and here's where it would be good for college football

if you are right. If Colorado covers this and loses by less than 21 and a half, and it is competitive even in the slightest in the second half, Colorado interest will remain. Very true. Because I was stunned by the number of viewers of the Oregon game.

Because the Oregon game wasn't competitive. I figured once it wasn't competitive anymore, everybody just sort of dropped out. But they didn't. They kept watching. And there were other games going on that were slightly competitive. I mean, Alabama Ole Miss was fairly competitive. Yeah. That was a good game. Definitely competitive at hal fairly competitive. Yeah, that was a good game.

Definitely competitive at halftime. Yeah, it was a game into the fourth quarter. So I think if this is somewhat close or Colorado is scoring at all, that this keeps the casual fan interested in Colorado. And see, I don't want to gatekeep the sport from the casual fans. Like I want them to embrace it. Come watch the show. Exactly. It's fine. It's fun in here. Come join us, please. Yeah. So what's interesting about Colorado, though, is they right.

They do need to stay somewhat competitive, though. They are going to fade off a little that's again another interesting part of this story what becomes of them and the tv interest when it's the stanford game and it's the arizona state game and some of these games go on to pac-12 network stanford game they probably score a bunch of points oh no no no i think no i'm with you like there i think though like the stanford game is a game they'll probably win. Yeah. They might beat Arizona State. Now, all of a sudden, they can pop back up to being 5-2, even if they lose to USC. And again, like, you know, don't want to make too much of it, but that's, now all of a sudden, the story is interesting again. You're right, though. I mean, if we see what we saw last week against Oregon,

it's a little harder to sustain that type of interest. I mean, USC is basically just – but, again, like I watch that USC defense. It's definitely better than it was last year. They're causing pressure. No, I think it is. I do think it is. Barry Alexander is very good. Yeah, I do think it's better than last year, but I'm not saying that's good.

I know they've played a lot of lousy offenses, but you still see the breakdowns in tackling. They're getting a ton of pressure. They're a little stauncher against the run because of Bear and some of the guys they brought in to bolster up that front line. But I just think, again, against Colorado, I could see them popping some plays with their receivers just enough to keep it interesting.

Jeff Rodriguez in the chat. Playing at home, they will put up some points, but they don't have a run game, and USC line gets loads of pressure. They had eight sacks last game, and I don't think they have a much better line than Arizona State. This is true. This is all true. It's a good point.

But I also do think being back at home, 10 a.m. start is a 9 a.m. kick for USC's bodies. I mean, that could help. So you get a little boost for being at home. You get a little boost from being embarrassed last week, and maybe you're coming out with a little more steam. I think that's enough for 21 and a half. And I don't think they put on the show they put on for the Colorado State game with The Rock and Lil Wayne.

I don't think they're worried about that. I think they're much more subdued. But, hey, if we can score some points on these guys, that will be a message that we can send to recruits, to everybody else. But, again, very well aware that this could be the fifth quarter of the Oregon game. It very well could. This very well could be like, oh, boy, this is not working here. And this will be the rest of the college football watching public going, oh, yeah, Caleb Williams is still really, really good.

Yeah, all the draft picks are going to pop in. The Bears fans who are sure now that they're going to get the first pick with either their pick or the Panthers pick. So yeah, I think it will be very thoroughly watched in the first half and it's up to Colorado to keep that going. Let us go to a game that two years ago, we'll create a great Applebee's commercial for a certain Kansas walk on. But I feel like we're in a very different place with both programs, with Kansas and with Texas. You know, Steve Sarkeesian said this week that he didn't feel like they needed to remind

the Texas players about what happened two years ago because they're so different than what they were then. And I got to tell you, Ralph, I was more impressed with what Texas did against Baylor than I was what Texas did against Alabama. Yeah, I know where you're going on that. And I have a similar feeling on this game too, right? Because we're expecting Texas. Yeah, we know you show up in the big games,

but let's take care of business in the not so big games, in the road game. That's why I'm interested to see what they do here. Kansas is good, but you got Oklahoma next week. You're still feeling good about Alabama. I like Texas and I think I'm giving up them points. And this is the thing. I think Kansas is better this year than they were last year. Oh, I think one of the things that's good for Texas and bad for Kansas

is when Texas players turned on the tape this week. They're like, you know what? Kansas is pretty good. Like, we got to respect these people. Yeah. I thought Kansas' 5-0 start last year was a little bit more fortunate. I think this 4-0 is a little more legit. I think this Kansas team, no matter what happens this week,

is going to have a better back half of the season than it did last year. That said, I want to see it. I do want to see Texas do this. Well, they did this last year against Kansas and Kansas State. It was actually – That's true. That part of the season is where I feel like it may be turned for Texas. That's a good point.

Now, I will say I went and revisited that Texas Kansas game from last year it was Bijan Robinson going berserk it was them basically not being able to stop the run at all now BYU is not very good this year but they held BYU to 29 rushing yards last week. Right. Kansas can play this year. And, oh, another plug, Lance Leipold, Kansas coach, going to be on the show tomorrow. Good guess. So he is a really interesting guy.

People forget that before he was at Buffalo, he was at Wisconsin Whitewater, won six D3 national titles. Like, he was the Nick Saban of D of d3 like they weren't supposed to just win every game they were supposed to win every game you know going away and so he's lived a lot of different football lives and and it's got kansas really salty right now yeah i mean this is a side note but it makes me think that when you look at what he's done and what Caleb and the board has done, that maybe winning is a good sign and you should hire guys that win. Just guys who win tend to keep winning. Yeah.

Like if you win at levels of football, no matter where you are, that that's a good sign that you're going to continue winning. I like Kansas defense better this year than last year. Just as you said. They look a lot more improved, but I do, I don't know, like I'm starting to buy in on this Texas team a little more. I think at home, after what I saw out of Baylor last week, or taking care of business against Baylor, I think they're going to take care of business this week. I'm going to give up that

16 and a half, and you know, I don't think they're going to necessarily beat them 55 to three, but I think it's, it's enough to cover the spread. I believe in Texas too, yet I am still going to take Kansas to cover. I think Texas will win and Kansas will cover. I just think Kansas is good this year. Like I, that, and, and I think that they will give Texas a good game because the thing that Texas did to them last year, I'm not sure, like they don't have a B. John Robinson this year to do that with. Now, maybe they just throw it to Jatavian Sanders

and he does it to them. But I do think that Kansas has a chance to make this one at least semi-competitive. Again, Texas can win by two touchdowns and I still win. So this is a lot of points. But I'm really excited to see this game. And again, if Texas can cover this spread, I'm going to be even more in on them

because they do feel like they're made differently than what we've seen from Texas in the last few years. And my last note on this, until further notice, Jalen Daniels is the best quarterback in the big 12. It's not a, that's not a hot take. I don't think, I don't think it's a hot take, but I think a lot of people listen, I know NFL scouts and things along those lines, you know, projecting viewers. And I know what Gabriel, uh, Dylan Gabriel has done, but I, I am all in on Jalen Daniels. So again, I'm giving a ton of compliments to Kansas, but I'm also not taking them.

Well, it's also because we both think Texas is really good this year. And they are playing differently and acting differently than Texas has played and acted in the past. So I understand where you're coming from, but I'm still taking the Jayhawks, but you're going to give me all of those points. Let us go to the opposite side of a lot of games, by the way. Have you noticed? I know.

Maybe one of us is going to be perfect again. Oh, boy. Speaking of a lot of points, Michigan goes to Nebraska. Hot day in Lincoln. I believe the high is supposed to be 92. I checked a lot of weather, Ralph. Yeah, good job on you. I didn't even realize that. Yeah, so Michigan's a 17.5 point favorite.

I think Michigan covers in this one. I don't think Nebraska's offense is going to be able to do anything against Michigan's defense. It's a little like the Georgia. I think my assessment is similar to Georgia-Auburn. It's like, how are you completing passes in Nebraska? Nebraska has basically been trying to hide its passing game, hide its quarterback. And I don't think you're going to be able to do that because that requires running the ball against Michigan when there's no threat of a passing game. Now, to get back to the comment I made about Kentucky, Michigan is playing so slowly this year. They haven't covered yet, but that's because they're just not running plays. They're just milking the clock. They've had all these enormous spreads, and they're just not playing

a lot of football. So I could see another game like that where Michigan runs barely 60 plays and they win by 17, which barely covers the spread, but they're never in doubt and they're never threatened. That's my only concern here. But again, I don't know if Nebraska is going to put up 10 points in this game without a lot of help. Right. Unless there's a pick six or something like that. And JJ has been pretty explosive in six or something like that. And you know, JJ has been pretty explosive in the past game this year. So I just, yeah, I think Michigan's going to cover this one. I don't, Nebraska's defense has been good. It's been worn out because the offense just doesn't get anything done. But I think the problem is you get Michigan

leaning on you now, and you're still not going to be able to move the ball when you get it. And I think that's just a recipe for a Michigan cover. So we'll go with that one. Finally, we find some common ground. Sorry, Heinrich Harburg. I apologize, but it's going to be a long day. Let's go to another game, Ralph, where the math elites and Vegas don't necessarily track.

So LSU is a two and a half point favorite in Oxford against Ole Miss. And by the way, we've been throwing around that stat with Lane Kiffin's record against teams that win nine games ultimately and lsu feels like lsu feels like a team that could win nine games not good not good lane so here's what the nerds say though the nerds have all this winning by between two and three yes i've noticed that i was noticing that myself and i'm going to go back to what this, I try not to just go gut on these picks. I do like to see what the nerds say and the math leads say, like I am into that. I am, I am one, I am symbiotic with them. I am one, I am simpatico with them. However, I, I don't know, man, I'm just not really seeing it from Ole Miss. I will say this.

LSU secondary is a problem. Like, their secondary is a problem. Not in a good way. He's a problem. Not that. No, they are a problem, a liability, yes. It is clearly going to be a problem, and I'm imagining that Jackson Dart and Lane can do some things

to continue that being a problem for LSU. They haven't gotten their running game. I know Judkins, Quinshawn has been banged up a little bit, but he's averaging less than four yards a carry. Like something's not right there with Ole Miss. I think high scoring game may be similar to last week's LSU-Arkansas game. But if I only got to cover two and a half for LSU, I'll take them. I'll take them on the road and go again, a little more gut than what the math says.

So here's where I'm a little nervous about this, where the nerds start to make sense. LSU averaged six and a half yards of carry against Arkansas last week. And they were very explosive in the past game. Can you guess what Alabama averaged per carry against Ole Miss? Alabama against Ole Miss was, I felt like, I watched the game and I felt like Alabama was running the ball pretty well. But maybe they really weren't because it was good.

Milrow actually had a sneaky, pretty good game, right? 2.9 yards of carry. Yeah. That's interesting. I didn't realize that they basically dared Milrow to beat them with his arm, which he did.

He averaged 10.7 yards per throw. He had the bad interception right before the really bad yeah the really bad check yeah which was you know if he dumps it down to the guy that there were two two receivers in the area there was one that was sitting about the three yard line and one in the end zone he he just decided at the snap that he was throwing into the end zone and that's a bad way to throw. So I think Ole Miss might be able to make LSU one-dimensional. Now, that one dimension may be enough. That one dimension may be enough to score a bunch of points on Ole Miss. Right.

But the LSU secondary is also playing in this game, and we saw what Arkansas did to them. Yeah, yeah. So you're going to take the home dog. You're just going to do the home dog. I am going to take Ole Miss. I'm going with the nerds on this one. So I'm going against the nerds in the Kentucky-Florida game.

Right. I'm with the nerds here. Now, I will say I have gotten LSU wrong every week except for Florida State. So I may be completely off here. But if LSU loses it, I mean, you know, if we start thinking big picture here, if LSU loses another game, they got two losses already. I've said this and written it and said it on my own podcast a couple of times. The SEC is giving me this Pac-12, Big 12 vibe.

And what I mean by that is these teams are just going to all knock each other off. And you're going to be sitting there at the end of the year with like a bunch of two and three lost teams, like, and Georgia. That's assuming Georgia does what Georgia we think is going to do. But like, it does feel like you could have a situation where like the SEC West winner – well, I mean, LSU did this last year, but the SEC West winner loses two or three games. Like just think of that like two years ago. Or, Ralph, Alabama could go 8-0 in SEC play.

Yes. Win the West. That feels like a more likely scenario to me. That's me. I think that the way I'm seeing this SEC West playing out, I think there's plenty of room for Alabama to get its act together. Right. We're not even picking the Alabama-Mississippi State game

because we know what's going to happen in the Alabama-Mississippi. The same thing always happens in the Alabama-Mississippi State game. Will Mississippi State score 10? That's the big question right now. Right. The last time you had the one where Tua got hurt, and then you had the one where Jalen Hurts hit Devontae Smith on the last play. There's been a couple of competitive ones, but for the most part,

God rest Mike Leach's soul, but he never figured out how to deal with or Alabama knew how to defend that. Now, they're not running that offense anymore but they're also not that good they're not very good on offense exactly but I think this is a good week I know we're not previewing that game I think this is a good week for Mill Road they've been terrible against the pass they this could be a nice opportunity for Mill Road again have a good confidence booster game because Rattler tore them up and Deloria tore them up. So they've had some problems.

Jane Daniels set records. Jane Daniels was 35 for 37 or something ridiculous like that. Malik Nabors just scored again. Exactly. All right. We always pick the total in the Iowa game. We're not even worried about the spread in this game. It's Michigan State at Iowa.

Iowa is a 12 and a half point favorite in case you're wondering. The total is 36 and a half, Ralph. Let me read you some quotes from this week. Okay. I'm just a quarterback. I'm not calling the plays or doing any of that. That's not my decision.

I'm just going to run the play and I'm going to throw it to the open guy. That's Cade McNamara this week. You ready for Kirk Ferentz this week? Give it to me. Someone had asked him if they're going to make any drastic changes, perhaps use the wide receivers more. We're not going to create a new playbook. Is that what you're suggesting? I'm not a wholesale believer in changing just because you had a bad game. It was not a good game tonight. Speaking of the Penn State game where they gained 76 yards, had four first downs and scored zero points.

I think we made progress in three weeks. Tonight was disappointing. We played a really good football team. We'll keep it in perspective. We'll evaluate things over the course of 12 games. We've got eight to play. We're not just going to start over again in any phase. Okay, you didn't just have a bad game.

You've had a bad decade. You're bad at offense. Historically bad last week. I mean, four first downs. So it's me. It's me, Andy. And I'm saying that it's me because I actually – Are you saying I'm the problem, it's me? No, no. What I'm saying that it's me because I actually, what is wrong with me? Are you saying I'm the problem? It's me?

No, no. What I'm saying is what's wrong with me? I actually said, I said this and wrote this as someone who's supposedly a football expert. I think they'll get the 325 relatively easily this year. I'm not saying they're going to be, you know, this is not going to be air Coriel. This is not going to be the greatest show on turf, but they're going to be a very competent offense. Cause I like Cade McNamara and they brought in some wide receivers and Eric all is a really good player, a tight end. And they got some new running backs.

So you know what fool me it's my it's me. Like how, how did I possibly get to a point where I thought that this was going to be better and you know until last week there were signs that it was going to be better and maybe over the course of the season Penn State's pretty good at defense it will be better but this is it's it's hard to fathom it's hard to fathom that if that this is what, what has become of a big 10 offense, I understand not being a good offense, but you're a big 10 school.

How can you not figure out offense more than this? Well, here's the thing about the over under in this game. I'm not sure Michigan States can score on Iowa. So are we relying on Iowa to score 37 points? Yeah, that's a different, there's a different level of sadness going on in Michigan State right now. I mean, listen, I at least saw a little fight at a Sparty last week when they fell behind against Maryland. That game looked like it was going to get way out of control and Sparty at least kept it within shouting distance. They'll never really threaten the Terps.

Yeah, I mean, you know, not to make light of what's going on with Michigan State. Who knows where those kids' heads are at right now? I'm going to give those guys a little slack. I don't think they're very good, and they got a mess going on off the field with their coach getting fired. So, yeah, again, this is a little triangle of sadness right here between – I think Iowa will win because, as you said, they'll do their defense and Torrey Taylor punting and play the field position game.

But do they get to 36-and-a-half? You and Ari always struggled with this. What does that mean? If it's a 12 and a half point spread that means the score they're predicting is so you subtract 12 and a half so that gives you 24 so we're talking about basically 35 to to 10 types or uh sorry 25 to 10 times four. Yeah, about a 25. Yeah, 20, 26. Yeah. So. Oh, man, that seems like a lot.

I'm going to need at least a block punt, at least one block punt. Maybe not pick six, but I'm going to need an interception deep in Michigan State's territory. I'm going to go. That is a very low number, though. I'm going to say Iowa, that Michigan State is dysfunctional enough to gift Iowa enough points to get over, to go. Is Michigan State going to score, though? You have to add that into the equation. Like, Iowa's not getting to 37 on its own.

Unlikely. Highly unlikely. You know, again, 36 and a half. What was that Rutgers-Iowa game last year? Was that like 34? Was that 32? I believe it went off at 34. Yeah.

And then the over hit. And the over did hit in that. And I was there for that one. I actually saw that one with my own eyes. I'm going to assume – I'm going to do this again for me once for me. I've already been fooled many times by Iowa. and it was raining. Iowa's offense is a little better. They get a few things going against a Michigan State team that might be completely out of sorts, and they get to the over. Remember, Iowa's offense is bad. It will make Michigan State's defense look better

than it looked against Maryland. Yeah, maybe. I'm going to go the over. No, you're not talking me out of it. I'm taking the over. Give me the under. All day. All day.

All right. Let us go to Durham. The game day game. If Ohio State hadn't punched that one in, I'd be all over Duke right now. But they did. And Notre Dame needs to bounce back on this game needs it bad so I'm thinking the other way I'm wondering how you recover from that and I will say this I am picking I am taking them points and if I'm gonna take those points I might as well what the

hell pick the upset and pick Duke oh yeah that yeah, that's fairly reasonable. I mean, it's a one score line. So if I think if I'm if I'm taking a team playing the biggest home game in the history of the university, you think they're going to be sky high on this? I just got to think that like they'll come up with a great effort. So, of course, I'm going to take the five and a half at home um i'm going to take duke for the win outright but i will say this this is a great test as far as i'm concerned of what kind of a coach marcus freeman has been rightfully crushed this week for what happened 10 guys on the field two plays in a row yeah i think one of the greatest signs of how good a coach you are is coming off of a bad loss, coming off of a heartbreak, or coming off of a situation like that. How does your team respond?

I want to see what Notre Dame does here. If Notre Dame responds well, then I think that's a great sign for the Fighting Irish. I will take Duke with those points. I will even say that they will pull the upset. I'm not super confident of that. I could see going by your philosophy that Notre Dame is really desperate now. Duke will certainly have their attention, but I'm going to go with the points and to me because I wasn't South Bend on Monday, did get around the Notre Dame people a little bit, around Marcus Freeman, around some of the players, and they strike me as a team that will bounce back from this, that will be ready. That's fine. I can see it. I'm not – It's a very old team.

They have a lot of good leadership. And Marcus Freeman, he had to do this with Marshall last year. He had to do this with Stanford last year. This is a different level of loss, a different type of loss. But I do think they've had some experience dealing with a game you thought you should have won, you know, coming back from that. So I'm going to take Notre Dame. I think they can cover this one.

Duke's going to give them their best shot. I think it's competitive. Yeah, and I think that's part of the problem for me. Like, it's one thing to say we're going to bounce back, but can you bounce back to the level of intensity that Duke will come at you with? Right. Can you match this? And Duke is not good for Duke. Duke is good. We have to remember that. Duke is just good. Seventh in the nation in average

margin per game, right behind this Georgia. Alright, a couple more, Ralph. We've kept you way too Georgia. Oh, pretty good. Yes. All right, a couple more, Ralph. We've kept you way too long, but this is too much fun. It's been so much fun. South Carolina at Tennessee. This game always just is weird.

Last year, remember, Tennessee goes in riding high, South Carolina coming off the worst it could possibly look against Florida, and South Carolina blows Tennessee's doors off. That didn't even affect the outcome. Crazy, and I think Spencer Rattler probably played another good game. I'm going to grab the points here, even though I think Tennessee wins this game, like in that 20, in that 35 to 25, 24 range, you know, 35, 27, something along those lines. I think it'd be a fun game, good offense on both sides. But I just, I just look at that and I think that that's a fair amount of points. Rattler has played pretty well. I'm not sure I know exactly what to make out of Tennessee yet.

Listen, Tennessee changes the story if they come out here and they really handle South Carolina and put them away. I think all of a sudden now we start thinking, oh, maybe Florida was an anomaly and this is a really good Tennessee team. But I'll grab them points but but think the balls will probably win. So Joe Milton tweaked his knee against UTSA. Nico came in. Joe Milton came back.

He had the brace on. I don't know what Joe's going to look like this week. I'm fascinated by this whole Tennessee situation. The fans were so down on them after the Florida game. They do need this. But 12.5 is a lot of points. I'm with you. I will take the points.

Give me South Carolina to cover. I don't – I'm not confident enough to say South Carolina money line on this, but I am – if you're going to give me that many points with Tennessee just in a seemingly strange place right now, I feel good taking the points. Yeah. It's where I am too on that one. All right.

We're going to close out in the PAC 12. The team that a lot of people feel like has played better than anybody else in the country. And if you want to go by just straight results, game control, one of those made-up stats that the playoff committee uses. But in this case, I think it's legitimate. Washington has been awesome, legitimately awesome in every game. You can say they haven't played anybody.

That's fine. There are other teams that haven't really played anybody, but they've farted around in a game or two. Washington never farts around. They just blow you out. I said last week, I wrote, if it feels like Washington is up, is up 31 to six every week, because basically they have been, they, they have gotten, I think they've outscored teams in like the first quarter or something to the extent of like 75 to 10. It's just been, and I think I'm even cutting them short there. They've been absurd in the first half of these games.

They're up double digits in a blink every week. They've been incredible. There's been this like, hey, maybe Washington's the best team in the country this year. And I just think that that's a setup. I think that we are due. We haven't had a top 10 team. We've only had one of these. Top 10 team loses to an unranked team. Clemson lost to Duke opening weekend of the season. Right. And Duke may be the better team. And Duke, it turns out, is pretty good. So that's that.

I just think that we are due a weird result. We're going to get a few more of these throughout the season. We're going to get a few of these. And my guess is we're going to get a couple of them in the Pac-12 because I think that conference is ripe for it. Arizona is not good defensively, but they're a lot better than they were last year when they were terrible. So Noah Fafita probably starting this game. Jadon Delora went out during

the Stanford game, hurt, I believe his ankle and Jed Fish has been pretty cagey about what's going to happen, but it sure sounds like Noah Fafita who came in and helped them beat Stanford by one, but mind you, is going to be the guy starting against a good Washington D. We kind of lose in all the hoopla over the Washington offense, which is like watching poetry. Yes. The fact that Washington defense is also really good. Yeah, Washington's offense is truly breathtaking. There are very few teams. I mean, again, the LSU borough team comes to mind of like we're just

gonna throw deep whenever we want right that's where Washington is right now it's like every whenever we want to take a shot we're just gonna complete it here's the thing though again this is one of those deals where like, this is their first, I think it's their first road game. Am I getting that wrong? I think it's- No, they went to East Lansing. Oh, that's right. They went to East Lansing. They went to East Lansing. So it's an intriguing road game. I was thinking I'll take Arizona with those points. Like Washington's do just a little bit of a dud, right? Washington's do a dud. I'll take that 17 and a half. Maybe Arizona hangs around. And then I thought to

myself, you know what? We're due a strange result. Again, I have to make these picks and print. So if I'm going to take that 17 and a half, weird things happen in tucson oh sure i'm gonna roll the now again mostly i'm just taking the 17 and a half my head is taking the 17 and a half my heart and my gambling spirit and that feeling that something weird has to go on is going to go on this weekend that part of me is saying yes your wildcat's going to win this game go sure, Wildcats are going to win this game. Wow. Jetfish finishes out of the way to win this game. Again, it's crazy.

Don't hold me to it. Feel free to mock me if you will. Take the 17 and a half with confidence and roll the dice on Arizona coming up with an upset here. We are a pro-Jed Fish podcast here. That said, Washington is going to cover. Washington is going to name its score. Give me the dogs all day.

I just feel like there's going to be a weird one. I don't think it's going to happen at Auburn. I don't think it's going to happen at Nebraska. I feel like there's going to happen at auburn i don't think it's going to happen at nebraska i feel like there's gonna be one of these here that something's gonna break right and also again like the whole again there is no science and no math behind this this is all just narrative this is gut right here yeah it's all that feeling of like as soon as everybody starts coalescing around a team Washington everybody's sort of all about Washington does feel like that is everybody's team that's the one because people are mad at me because I I picked Oregon to win the Pac-12 in the preseason and until somebody

proves me wrong which could be Washington on October 14th yeah yeah I'm sticking with Oregon because they've looked amazing so far so like. But the Washington Hive has been very aggressive this week. Super aggressive. And that's when I think things go wrong. And that's what I have. I just get the feeling that. But, you know, again, man, like, Pennix will throw touchdowns on, like, the first four possessions,

and it'll be 28, nothing. Cause it's 28, nothing every week in Washington games. And I'll just be, and it'll be, you know, it'll be, it'll be, uh, 11 PM Eastern. I'll be exhausted. I'll be trying to find my illegal PAC 12 network feed, you know, and I'll look like a fool for having said this and it'll be on YouTube forever. That's the beauty of the internet. It does not forget. Didn't forget when I went 0-8.

Hopefully it won't forget if I ever go 8-0. But we picked a lot more than 8 this one, Ralph. We went with the nerds. We went against the nerds. We went with your gut. I went against your gut. I'm ready. Ralph, it's going to be another beautiful weekend. It's going to be great weekend, Andy. It's going to be a great weekend.

We got Lance Leipold on the show tomorrow as he gets his Kansas Jayhawks ready to go play at Texas. Cannot wait. It's going to be so much fun. We'll talk to you tomorrow night.