Andy & Ari On3 - Week 8 Picks | Penn State - Ohio State | Tennessee - Alabama | Utah - USC | Duke - Florida State

Episode Date: October 19, 2023

It's the Week 8 Picks Show! Sports Illutsrated's Richard Johnson joins to cover a huge Week 8 Slate of picks. But first, we have an injury report to get to.Today’s show is sponsored by Fanduel! Visit Fanduel.com/Staples and use the promo code Staples. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Thank you to FanDuel* for delivering the lines for this week's slate of games!Today’s show is also brought to you by Birddogs. Live your most efficient life with a pair of shirts or pants from Birddogs. Visit birddogs.com/staples and use the promo code STAPLES to receive a free Hydro Flask-style bottle with your order. 0:00 Intro: Injury Report6:43 Week 8 Picks, Intro7:59 Washington St - Oregon20:38 Tennessee - Alabama25:49 Oklahoma State - West Virginia30:56 Minnesota - Iowa38:12 Texas - Houston40:52 Michigan - Michigan State45:27 Duke - Florida State49:11 Ole Miss - Auburn51:03 Utah - USC58:46 Penn State - Ohio State1:05:35 ConclusionWant to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and don't forget to subscribe!https://youtu.be/luYLKBokZTA* Must be 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visitFanDuel.com/RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia, or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call [phone] for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. Happy Wednesday. It is a picks show. Richard Johnson from Sports Illustrated and the Split Zone Duo podcast is going to join us. And we're going to pick a bunch of games. And you can follow me. You can fade me. You can do whatever you want.

I had a decent week last week. You might want to follow me. You can fade me. You can do whatever you want. I had a decent week last week. You might want to follow me. But if you want to, I understand. I did go 0-8 that one time. That one time. So if you want to fade me, I get it. It's not going to hurt my feelings. But before that, we got to go over the injury report.

And so, you know, with all this gambling and all that going on, we've got to have the official injury report, which they don't have necessarily in college football like they do in the NFL. But we do know one. South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, parentheses, foot. Yeah, Shane Beamer has a broken foot. We'll let him explain. Shane, a couple of things.

Did I see you limp in here? Do we need an injury update on you? Yeah, I might as well say it now because y'all are going to ask on Saturday after the game. I broke my foot on Saturday. So I'd rather just get it out there and say it and not have y'all speculating. And then after the game on Saturday in Missouri, you ask.

I called Coach Tanner, told him, make sure he was okay with it, and he died laughing when I told him. So obviously there's not a lot of empathy from him. It was after the game, and certainly that was a gut-wrenching emotional loss, and I was frustrated and kicked something that I shouldn't have kicked and thought I was okay, but journaling of the game wore off. And before anybody starts the narrative,

like the head football coach is frustrated and lost his poise and all that. No, I care. And I care about these kids. And I was really upset on Saturday night because I didn't do enough to help them get over the hump and win the football game. So don't think I have to have surgery, but there is a broken bone in my foot. It hurts like you know what, but you know, I've got to show toughness and fight through it.

You can't kick or punch something that doesn't move, no matter how frustrated you are. And I don't know what he kicked, but my guess is it is something that didn't move when his foot hit it. And we all had that friend or that teammate back in the day that got mad and there was a wall and they tried to take their frustration out on a wall. If there's one lesson I can impart to everybody, it doesn't matter how frustrated you get. The wall always wins. The thing that doesn't move always wins. So general rule for life. I only have a few rules for life. Maybe we just, we need to start stitching this into pillows or making posters or something. So here are the rules for life. And I'm going to add one because I feel like we need to add one here.

The first rule of life is never complain about free food. The second rule is never complain about free beer. The third rule is never skip leg day. We're going to add a fourth rule. The fourth rule is no matter how frustrated you get, never punch or kick anything that is alive and never punch or kick anything that doesn't move. If you follow those rules, you will live a very happy, bountiful life. And you will not have to answer questions like, why are you limping, coach?

What happened? And you won't get ripped by Paul Feinbaum, who just crushed Shane Beamer, saying this is the head coach of an SEC institution. Yeah. I imagine he got frustrated. I know Shane Beamer cares. I get it. But follow rule number four, find something kickable that isn't alive and does move.

And you don't have that problem. So just follow the rules for life and you won't have to deal with that. Shane Beamer has to deal with fixing that defense. That's, that's what he's got to do. Florida looked more explosive than it has all year against South Carolina's defense. And Oh, by the year against South Carolina's defense. And oh, by the way, South Carolina's next opponent is Missouri, which has been very explosive on offense. So this is a pick show.

We do not have that game in the picks. Richard and I didn't pick that one, but I will give you a little bit of a little bit of bonus. So South Carolina is a touchdown underdog against Missouri. I don't know about the point spread, but the total on that 60 and a half, if the South Carolina defense that played on Saturday against Florida shows up against Missouri, that one's going over, especially if the South Carolina offense that played against Florida also shows up because it was actually

pretty good. Spencer Rattler and company had a very good day. So 60 and a half, the over could hit on that one. I just, just, now hopefully nothing else gets hit. No feet or fists go into things that break bones and everybody comes out of that okay. But that line on that game and that total on that game and all the others that you're going to hear today come from our partners at FanDuel. FanDuel is the number one sports book in America. And if you go to FanDuel.com slash staples and sign up,

the first $5 you bet, you get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets. And they have everything, NFL, NBA, golf, college football, obviously, you name it. Available in a bunch of states and all the lines that you're going to see from FanDuel. There's some juicy ones. There are some juicy ones this week. And Richard and I, we started struggling. I think the folks at FanDuel have gotten better as the season has gone on at figuring out, all right, where does this thing need to be? Because we have some issues

dealing with some of these lines because it feels like Vegas knows something that maybe we don't. But that's how it works. That's what makes it fun. FanDuel Sportsbook, FanDuel.com slash staples. First $5 bet, $200 in guaranteed bonus bets. FanDuel.com slash staples. On to the picks. It is time to pick these games. And every week we have a special guest picker. This one we are honored to have from the Split Zone Duo podcast.

And a little publication called Sports Illustrated. Richard Johnson. It's good to be here, Andy. It's good to be back. Always good to chop it up with you. I know. This is great. Now, you've gone off to the big city.

You're actually like, so my children are Alachua County residents, which ACR is the derogative term that University of Florida students use for townies. You are an ACR, but you live in New York City now. Yes, I'm a townie. I've moved to the big city, but ACR is still in the roots. It's still in the blood. It's home. What can I say? You can't pick home. And we can't pick Florida because there is no game this week. We did not pick Florida last week because I was not touching the Florida-South Carolina game. I had no idea what was going to happen in that game.

And it turned out exactly like we thought. Yeah, I think it was within three points. And you got a one possession game where the team that had the ball last won the game. I mean, that's pretty much it. But you had a great story. And we're going to start, normally we kind of go in chronological order, but I want to start with the Washington State-Oregon game, picking that one, because you had a great story where you talked to the head of an

analytics firm about Dan Lanning's fourth down choices against Washington. And I thought it was especially good because your colleague at Sports Illustrated, Pat Forty, had a column where he called Dan Lanning a fourth down dunce. So tell us exactly, you know, we can go through all three if you want the before the half, the one in the in the fourth quarter early, and then the one at the end. How did how did the analytics community feel about those choices? Yeah, so I will say the analytics community felt that all three of them were strong goes, okay. So I want to be clear about that. What I tried to do in the story was kind of say that, Hey, it's more than just the analytics that tell you to go. It's you have to,

they all weigh and you have to weigh different things when you break down the decision. So if you want to take one by one, the first one at the end of the half, which frankly, I thought they should have kicked the field goal. Me too. Yeah. Effectively you have a 49%, a coin flip chance of scoring at fourth and three from the three yard line. So fourth and goal from the three. So it's a coin flip chance. And that's, you know, that, that,

I think that combined with the fact that they got the ball coming out of the half Oregon did, I think is really what pushed Dan Laney to go there. You know, if Bo Nix doesn't dirt a pass on third down to a wide receiver in the flat, they probably score. And, and, you know, they run a sprint out play, Andy, on the fourth down there where you compress an already compressed portion of the field. It's not awesome. So that's the other part here. It's the decision, which is one thing, and also the play call and the execution inherent when you run the play. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. And I had somebody text me last night who works with coaches and and said, you know, they were watching. Oh, they were watching the Monday Night Football replay. And they said, do you do you do you call plays or call players in on fourth and goal in tight situations? And it was it was after Herbert had had converted a fourth down after not converting a fourth down. And I was like, oh, you call players. You put your guy in the best position. And you're right. The play call where they compressed the field was the one that if you're maybe moving Bo Nix to the other side,

where if it breaks down, he might be able to run it in. Former Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is a little bit different animal because he's a six foot six 240 pound fast guy and that's exactly what they did on the one that worked against the Cowboys where they sprinted him out and he had a tight end wide open but it didn't matter because he could have run it in if he wanted to but yeah that's you you do just try to have the ball in your best player's hand doing the thing that's most advantageous for him. Right. So then you come around to the second one.

And the second and the third one, I have zero, like, they were goes. You have to go. You have to understand that Washington, I mean, Andy, I made the joke on my own podcast, Andy, me and you could quarterback Washington with those receivers and put up 35 points a game. You know what I mean? Like Michael, it's great, but you know, you have to understand what you're going against and Oregon does. And when you come into a game like that, you have to recalibrate what you think about how you manage the game. You have to

understand that aggressiveness is going to have to be inherent because you have to maximize your chance to score points. And remember, you know, this is what Oregon does. It's awesome when Oregon's up 13 against Colorado and goes for it on fourth down at their own 17-yard line, right? When they convert that with a defensive lineman, it's, oh, Dan Lanning's awesome and he's a wily gambler and he makes all these great decisions or whatever, but then you don't like it because he does it in this game and they're not able to convert. It can't be both. This is the guy's DNA.

And on the second fourth down, which was fourth and three, they were inside Washington's 10. And frankly, Bo Nix takes his one-on-one matchup, which is sort of the easy button there, and I get it. It's not an awesome throw, but it's low. It's outside. Either your receiver gets it or it's incomplete. But if Nix comes off of that in the dead middle of the field, it is wide open for one of his receivers. And that receiver actually probably scores a touchdown in addition to getting the first down. But Nix didn't take it.

He took his one-on-one matchup. You understand why he does that, And it is what it is. And then there's, you know, there's some stuff inherent there to also being down 11 and Michael McRoberts, who I spoke to, who's the head of championship analytics made this point. Down 11 is not a two possession game because down 11, which theoretically you think, okay, we kick the field goal there. You're down 83.

Yeah, right. That's a one possessionpossession game. Eight points is not one possession. Eight points is a touchdown and a two-point conversion. And a two-point conversion, Andy, as we know, is fourth and three from the three. And literally the point of this article is that that is not a given. So, you know, I understand why they went there, and I love the fact that they went there,

you know, at that point in time, they had like an 18 Oregon had like an 18% win probability, I think, um, by the, uh, by the chart, by the graph there. And then you see the Oregon got the exact right thing to happen in that sequence. They were able to pin Washington deep because Washington starts at their own three yard line line, shadow of their goalpost. Oregon actually got a stop. And then Washington punts. Oregon takes over right around midfield and takes the shot play because midfield is shot play territory. And they scored the touchdown. So inherently, Oregon actually won that sequence even though they didn't get the touchdown there when they went for it on fourth down.

Yeah, the pinning the opponent in the shadow of its own goalpost is a benefit in and of itself. That is a positive outcome. Yeah. And that's the difference there with going for it there versus going for it at the end of the playoff. Yeah. And then the third one, I've been saying this all week. You have two potential outcomes. One guarantees Michael Penix gets the ball back and one doesn't.

You take the one where you might not give him the ball back. Because if you give Michael Penix the ball back, you probably lose. Right. And that's the thing. Like, it is about going for it on that last fourth down there is about giving yourself a third pathway to win the game. Right. Yeah.

It's not just stopping Washington or, or Washington scores and you get the ball back with time to come back and score on your own. And you can also literally end the game right there with fourth and whatever, whatever it is. I don't have it in front of me, but like it was two. Yeah. Like you have to go in that situation. And to be honest with you,

it is fairly negligible because it was like the 40 ish or 45 ish. Yeah. If you punt to Washington and Washington runs it back with any significance, or it goes in the end zone for a touchback, it's like 20, 25 yards. Like that is negligible to me for against that Washington offense because you saw what Washington's offense did in two plays. Like the only thing there to me that changes that is if you do punt the ball to Washington, Washington probably uses 15, 20, or 25 seconds that you would like to have on the back end to run your own drive to try to come back and score after Washington scores. Yeah. Yards are cheap. Seconds and points are expensive.

That's where the value is. And so I didn't have any problem there either, but I'm glad we broke this down because I do think there's a segment of fans that are like all analytics all the way, do what the chart says there's a segment that's like this is dumb just do what conventional wisdom says and then i think there's a lot of people in the middle that are like there's some gray here and you do need to kind of explore the gray to figure out where that is and i i think we fell on the same side kick the field goal at the end of the half go for the two in the second half. But he still didn't win. I brought it up on a mailbag show the other night, the Michael Lewis story on Shane Battier, where you can do all these things and sometimes Kobe Bryant still

makes the shot. Sometimes Michael Penix still hits Roman Dunzay. You can do everything right. We'll get right back to the picks picks but first let's talk about bird dogs I love my bird dogs whether it's my Indianapolis Joneses oh yeah look at that built-in liner in the shorts that go with everything that can take you everywhere tremendous the Fidel Bass Pro Polo fits you in all the right places and the weather's getting cooler so can't always go with shorts but sometimes i do have occasions where i need to wear pants got the steven jobs they're the best looking chinos i've ever owned they are incredible and then also started wearing the joggers the tiger woods w, W-O-U-L-D.

They are phenomenal. Again, they fit you in all the right places. Bird Dogs just knows how clothes should fit. Not too tight, not too loose. You look like you came out of the pages of a magazine and you were living your most efficient life because of that built-in liner, which feels like it was made just for you. So go to birddogs.com slash staples.

Use the code staples. You get a free Hydro Flask style bottle with your first order. Load up. Joggers. Chinos. Shorts. Polos.

They got it all. Birddogs.com. Promo code staples. But yeah, let's talk Washington State, Oregon. This is a lot of points. 18 and a half point favorite at home, the Ducks. This is a lot of points for a team that's been pretty good, but its offense has sort of disappeared the last couple weeks.

Yeah, and like, I don't even... Some of what Arizona was able to do to Washington State was, first of all, Fafita, Noah Fafita, who was Arizona's backup quarterback, may be better than Jaden Delora. That's one thing. Yeah, he's their QB1. I think we're pretty safe saying that. Yeah. The other thing, though, is like Washington State –

like Washington State runs a double pass with a running back who is actually a backup quarterback. And the backup quarterback like yeets it in a triple coverage. That's an interception. The other interception that Washington State or the other turnover that Washington State had, Cam Ward literally was trying to throw the ball on third down and it just slips out of his hand. So like you had some wonkiness. Now, 44 to 6 is what would happen to Washington state last weekend is, is not a fluke, but there are some reasons why that game really and truly got out of hand. And I do lean Washington state in this game, 18 and a half is a big number for Washington state offense that I still think can put up some points. Yeah. And I, the Oregon thing, what I can't figure out is how they, how they react to the loss. I don't think they're going to let it beat them

twice. I don't, I think they're going to win this game. I'm just trying to figure out how they react to the loss. I don't think they're going to let it beat them twice. I don't, I think they're going to win this game. I'm just trying to figure out how they're going to win this game. Like, do they come out and just obliterate Washington state because they're mad because they want to prove a point or is it a little more complex than that? Does Washington state put up a fight? I lean toward Washington state puts up a fight here and Oregon wins it.

But Washington State covers. Because Washington State has played so poorly last week and really got shut down before that. They're due for a good game too. This team has been good, has pride, is playing for, hey, we're still here. And this is a chance for everybody to see them again. And they seem to do well when everybody's watching. Yeah, yeah.

I'll take the Cougs against the number. Yeah, I will too. All right. Very nice. Now, T-Bob, Bay Bear and I were very much in agreement last week. The only thing we didn't agree on was Oregon-Washington. And he's like, this is a heart and soul pick because I played my first game at Husky Stadium. And I love the purple and the gold.

And really, it kind of was a coin flip when it really comes down to it. So let's – do we want to go with a big game? We're doing a huge game now? Let's do a huge game. All right. Let's do Tennessee, Alabama. Tennessee. I don't know, Andy.

Look, Alabama, I think, has found an offensive blueprint, right? Yes. Chuck it or, Jalen, pull it and go. And I don't know. I think Tennessee does not get enough credit for how good they are up front on defense. And I think they're going to get in Milrow's face. They're going to pressure him.

I take Tennessee against the number here. So here's the thing. Alabama's an eight and a half point favorite. That's where it opened. They bet it up to nine and a half. It's back down to eight and a half. We're recording this a little early in the week. So if this has changed, that's why.

But that is the number on FanDuel right now that we're looking at. And I'm with you on that, Richard, because James Pierce has been fantastic. If you watch that Tennessee-Texas A&M game, they were in Max Johnson's lap constantly. He had no time to throw. Now, some of that was he was getting some low snaps, but some of that was just not only was Tennessee getting pressure from the edges, they were getting pressure up the middle. And I think they can do that against Milrow. You watch Landon Jackson dominate Caden Proctor last week. Yes.

Landon Jackson is a really good edge rusher for Arkansas. Caden Proctor is the freshman, you know, offensive tackle for Alabama. He's going to be great. He's going to be an NFL player, but he's a true freshman right now trying to play against grown-ass men, and that's hard. And I think both of these quarterbacks are going to get harassed a lot in this game, and I think that creates a lot of variability,

potential for turnovers, that sort of thing. And so who has the better turnover luck? Who can make the better turnover luck is the question, I think. I think Alabama's winning, but it is very easy to contemplate a close game here. I get every Tennessee game that I pick wrong, pick them to cover against Florida, pick South Carolina to cover, but Tennessee to win. Tennessee obliterated South Carolina, picked A&M to cover. My instinct was take Alabama to cover here. I'm going to go against my instinct because I get Tennessee wrong every time. I'm going to take Tennessee to cover here, but I think Alabama

wins. I think it plays out fairly similarly to Alabama Arkansas yeah Bama gets up and then Bama sort of holds on like I like eventually Jalen Miro is going to not hit some of these deep shots but then yes you have Joe Minton on the other end you know I don't know I don't love Alabama being able to cover this number against a Tennessee offense that we do know can still put up some points in spots. It's still got that explosive factor. And I do think they will affect Jalen Monroe on defense

significantly enough for it to be a one-position game. And the other thing is, I've also come to figure out probably that Cooper Mays is the most important player on Tennessee's team. That when he's healthy and playing, their running game is very different. They can move the ball on the ground and it does help. Now, it didn't help them throw the ball any better against Texas A&M, but it helped them win the game. And that's the part I want to see. Jalen Wright's been very good at tailback.

So, yeah, this is going to be an interesting one because I could see Tennessee going in and winning this game too if Milrow has a bad day. I can also see this being an abject disaster for Tennessee if Joe Milton regresses anymore. And that's what the Tennessee fans, like, I got a mailbag question this week that I didn't end up using because we were having Brent Hubs on to talk about the quarterback situation.

But, man, they are worried. You might get the Nico calls at some point in the middle of this. Yeah, the point that you made about Mays, too, is huge. Because against Florida, you could tell in a road environment at night rowdy crowd they get rattled got rattled and there was a a calmness factor in the offense that was missing there right somebody there to kind of stabilize the ship keep us right get us into the right calls like they didn't burn some timeouts being in the second half in the Florida game because of that you know they're going to be in a tough road environment again here

and I do think your point on Mays is really well taken yeah this is going to be this is going to be a fun game I think and and it could be a disaster for either or both quarterbacks which could make it even more wild it's I this is not going to be like this this feels like it's going to be the opposite of washington oregon where washington and oregon we're looking at this high level offense you know high level quarterback play this is going to get ugly because i think both defenses are going to be able to rattle both qbs yeah yeah so let's let's do it. All right. Where to go? I got a mystery game here. This one, I don't know what to think about this one.

We're going to Morgantown. Yeah, look. West Virginia, tough last week. You know, I'm sure we both, like I was saying on my own podcast, I had like two, I was out on Thursday night. I wasn't watching the game against Houston. And I got two straight texts that were along the lines of, Dana's definitely fired.

And then the next one was like, what? Like, holy shit, blah, blah, blah, blah. Because of how the ending kind of broke down there. I'm sitting there on the couch with my son. And usually on school nights, he goes to bed a little bit earlier. He just happened to be up. And he he's like,

he's like, are they all like this on Thursday nights? I was like, sometimes it was, it was wild. Cause when Dana, okay. When the West Virginia tight end crosses the goal line and Dana grabs the

headset and just like fling brings it down to his side like, oh, crap. What do I do? But I feel like every time there's an unsportsmanlike conduct celebration penalty for a late, late touchdown, we should just automatically schedule a tweet tweet that says too many yards. That happened in the Virginia game a couple weeks ago. Yes.

On a Friday night game. NC State. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's crazy. And when you have to kick off from the 20, weird things happen.

And like, maybe they, I don't think they would have gotten it, they had time for the one play where they go to the sideline, which set up, made it where Donovan Smith could reach the end zone. So I think if you got the extra 15 yards, they don't have that play. And they can't reach the end zone and they go pitchy woo woo and they lose. So guys keep your helmets on. When you score what you think is the game-winning touchdown, because it might not be. All right, let's talk about this game, because Neil Brown, I appreciate the way he's handling this.

Where he's saying, we talked about the Houston game. We're never talking about it again. We're done. But there were things in that game that were promising. Like, we have not seen Garrett Green throw the ball like that. I, like, my thing in this game comes down to, I think Oklahoma State in the red zone does not get enough stops, is not good enough to, for me to take them in a game I think is going to be close. If we're talking about finishing drives, maximizing points, all that kind of stuff, I think West Virginia will be able to do that on Oklahoma State's

offense. And so I take West Virginia in this spot. Yeah, I'm just very curious about Oklahoma State. Mike Gundy has bounced back tremendously from that South Alabama loss. They are now 2-0 for the state of Kansas, which they were 0-2 last year for the state of Kansas got ripped in both those games, but they beat Kansas state. They beat Kansas. They're playing much better. They seem to be better on along along the line of scrimmage than they have been. And Mike Gundy came out this week and said, Hey, it might just be that that South Alabama game.

We didn't coach it very well. Well, the problem is Andy, they had one of those last year too, where they didn't coach it very well. But the problem is, Andy, they had one of those last year too, where they didn't coach it very well and they got smoked. Yeah. Yep, that's true. Now, Alan Bowman seems to be the guy at quarterback, which I think that settling that situation probably helps settle everything else. He actually wasn't particularly great against K-State, but he was very good against Kansas. So this could be another one like the Houston game where it's back and forth and we see a lot of scoring. So I'm excited.

I kind of wish this was a weekday game. This may get a little buried by Bama, Tennessee, but I am with you. I'm going to take West Virginia. I think at home, I think they're maybe a little bit better. Their offensive line is a little bit better and they got to, they got to bounce back because if they can, I think Neil's still got a chance. Yeah. And I think that they've proved this season. They're really resilient. They are rallying around him. They're not quitting. They're not like all that sort of stuff. And I don't think a result like last week makes this team kind of throw in the towel like it's it's just one of those things you learn from it you grow yeah it's it this is a it's a hard process neil was talking about he's he's never lost a game like that

so trying to figure out the grieving process of that. And I thought that was interesting that the term he used grieving process, because you're right. It is like something was just in your hands and got ripped away. And they were in a situation where, I mean, if they're five and one, like they're definitely going to bowl game. They're definitely like now it sort of throws all of that into doubt,

but you can take that back by winning today by winning on Saturday. Right. All right. Let's, uh, Oh, here we go. So Richard,

every week we always pick the Iowa total. Sometimes we pick the point spread. This is the one of the weeks last week. We picked the point spread of the total. This is one of the weeks we will also pick the point spread. This is one of the weeks. Last week, we picked the point spread and the total. This is one of the weeks we will also pick the point spread and the total. Are you ready for your eyes to bleed? I wrote a story. In 2021, I wrote a story.

Iowa was playing, I believe, Wisconsin. And the total was 37. And I talked to some odds makers and all that sort of stuff. And they were like, yeah, since 2010, they had found, I believe it was 16 totals that were 37 or lower. I believe the closest that was a non-Service Academy game was like a bad Vanderbilt team and a bad Missouri team had a total of like 34. And it went under. And here we sit with, and I say a lot to say, like this is probably as low a total that doesn't involve service academy teams

that you will pretty much ever see in the current modern era of college or postmodern era of college football. This is 32 and a half. So last week when we did the pick show, the Wisconsin Iowa total was 36 and a half. By the time the game kicked off, it was down to 34. I don't, this one has stayed at 32 and a half since it opened. I don't think it's going to drop, but I am almost certain it's going to go under. I mean, so Iowa's played seven games this year. Five have gone under.

Two have gone over. Minnesota's offense is not great. I enjoy saying Ethan Kaliak-Manas. Like, it rolls off the tongue. Ethan Kaliak-Manas, Ethan Kaliak-Manas. But I just can't imagine. Unless Cooper DeGene goes full Travis Hunter and plays the whole game at receiver and Minnesota can't cover him, this is going under.

The problem here is, though, if you're taking this, you kind of have to bank on Iowa getting a fluky touchdown in this game. They scored an 80-yard touchdown last week against Wisconsin. They're probably going to get a defensive score. had a safety in that game too like they are that why I'm struggling to take the under even though I want to just for the spectacle is that I do worry that they get some dumb touchdown that ends up pushing this thing over but I don't know man it's I just have no faith in these other Big Ten West teams to even score on Iowa right at all and that that was the thing like with Wisconsin even before Mordecai got hurt they couldn't do anything right they weren't moving the ball they were helpless the

first half uh drive chart is just uh it's it's an affront to decency like it's just incredible that they continue to play these games and man Iowa is going to the Big Ten Championship game oh no doubt they can lose another time because like Wisconsin plays Ohio State Northwestern stinks like the other teams in the west are going to pick up another loss and Iowa is going to end up with tiebreakers over everybody well and that's what the reason I'm so high on Penn State still I picked them preseason and I continue to pick them to win the big 10 they scored 31 on this team yeah like that's good people understand how good that is in a driving rain by the way yes It was pissing rain the whole day. Yes.

And yes, I understand that Iowa's offense was so incompetent in that game and Penn State's defense so dominant that Penn State got shorter. But Torrey Taylor makes up a lot for the offensive incompetence in terms of field position. So, I mean, are you ready for the rest of Iowa's schedule? Are you ready for this? I was looking at it last night. I was looking at it last night. I was looking at it last night.

So they're playing Minnesota. They've not had their open week yet. They're getting that after this. They're at Northwestern. They get Rutgers. They get Illinois. They're at Nebraska. This team may be 11-1, Richard.

And here, look, they're not beating Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State in the Big Ten championship game. I think we all understand that. But if they do, playoff Iowa? Yes. Playoff Iowa? Yes. With one loss, Big Ten champion Iowa that would have assumedly beat

Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State. I don't know. I don't know. This is the best advertisement for eliminating divisions ever. Because this team is built to win this division. You have Minnesota playing a style for this division. Illinois plays a style built for this division. Illinois plays a style built for this division. And this is why you eliminate this division because it's not, it's not even fair to the teams in the East that the teams in the West get to,

to deal with this. And the best part of this is the tiebreaker for the East. If there's a three-way tie atop the East, let's say, you know, Penn state beats Ohio state, but loses to Michigan. Then Ohio state beats Michigan. Like Penn state's going because they beat Iowa because I will have

the best record of the West opponents that they, that everybody played. Is that the three game, the three team tiebreaker? So it, it, there's many, but once, once you get out of all the East-related ones, where if somebody had lost another game in the East, then you get to the combined record of the opponents from the other division. And because they played Iowa, Penn State's combined record of West opponents is going to be way better. Oh, I did not realize that was the that was one of the three team tiebreakers that's yes oh boy yeah i mean it's still we'll see i mean the thing about iowa because their offense is so bad there is the possibility that iowa turns

it over the other defense scores they lose in a fluky way. But right now, I would feel very confident saying that I will finish the regular season 10-2 or better. Yeah. Oh, yeah. I'm very confident in that. And in this game, God help us all, I take Iowa minus three and a half, and I think I will go under. Yes! Do it! I will go under for the spectacle. All right. I also will take Iowa to will go under. Yes, do it. I will go under for the spectacle.

All right. I also will take Iowa to cover and under. I thought last week was a gimme. Last week was so easy because Iowa was like an eight and a half point underdog. It was like 36 and a half. And on Tuesday, I looked at it and I was like, oh, absolutely not. I sprinted and took under 36 and a half last week. No question.

And no question Iowa was going to cover in that game. That was the easiest call ever. They could have been there for 10 quarters and they weren't scoring 36 and a half points. That was my thing. I think it was nine and a half when we picked the game Wisconsin was favored by. I'm like, Wisconsin's not scoring 10 points. So this is no problem. Yeah. Oh my God. scott's is not scoring 10 points so this is no problem yeah oh my god what this is this is great i love this let us go to a game now this i don't usually pick conference games with lines like this

but this is such a unique circumstance because we're only going to see this once right texas at houston Houston Houston's a 22 and a half point dog at home but the Longhorns are coming to their house yeah Texas off a bye week um I am I leaned I'm taking Texas this game Texas off a bye week I understand Houston wants this one probably as bad as Houston has. I mean, this is the biggest Houston home game ever. Yeah. Right. Okay.

So biggest Houston home game ever. It's going to be juiced up atmosphere, but Texas is better. Like I was at Red River. I understand what happened. I still think Texas, when all is said and done, when they rematch Oklahoma, I do think Texas will be on the doorstep of a playoff, and it'll be can you beat Oklahoma or not in the Big 12 championship game to go to the playoff.

Yeah, the only thing that I think could derail Texas at any point is if Kansas State comes in there and Avery Johnson makes Kansas State considerably different. We're not going to know that until we see Kansas State with Avery. We think Avery Johnson's, they got the or on the depth chart now. So we think Avery Johnson is going to be the guy against TCU. Maybe that changes it because they do only have the one conference loss. They lost to Missouri, which doesn't count in conference play. So that one is really all I'm worried about for Texas. I think Texas comes in here.

I think Texas covers this spread, beats Houston handily, and continues to roll. And that's really where I think this Texas team is different because this is a spot where the Texas teams of the past, recent vintage, I would have said this is a big trouble spot. And I would have said, this is a big trouble spot. Right. And then K-State will be a big trouble spot. Like, I would have been worried about them the whole way.

I'm not really worried about them right now. No, solidly built. You know, what's up front is different. And I think you see that every game that they play. They've got some absolute just hitters up front. And I think this Texas team, yeah, I think this Texas team is built different. And I'm you see that every game that they play. They've got some absolute just hitters up front. And I think this Texas team, yeah, I think this Texas team is built different. And I'm taking them here. Yeah, that D line against Houston's O line, I think they're going to feast.

And, you know, they need to, they're going to want to because they didn't affect Oklahoma very much at all. And so I'm sure they want to show, Hey, we're still here. We're still good. And we're going to make sure that we get to play the Sooners again. So let us, let us move on to another really big line in conference play. And again, this is just, this is a strange series. Two years ago, this game was an absolute classic Michigan at Michigan state. Now Michigan state is a 24 and a half point underdog. That is how far apart these two programs have diverged since that game

where I, this was the game probably that got Mel Tucker, the contract. I am basically at Michigan minus anything territory until November 11th. Yeah. I know this one though is going to be nasty. This is one of the nastiest rivalries in the sport. And I think a lot of people kind of take it for granted or whatever.

This game gets gross. And it's going to get extra gross because of what happened last year. I think Michigan, that atmosphere is going to be really charged. It's going to be really nasty. But it's Michigan. This Michigan, they are plus 149 point differential in their four conference games. I believe your colleague Max Olson has a stat that they have not faced a goal-to-go play in conference play.

Right. No, I think Indiana crossed the 10. Oh, no, they were at. They might have been just beyond the 10. So, yeah, it's unbelievable how dominant they've been. And that's the thing here. It could be nasty. It could be charged.

And it could be that by the middle of the second quarter, it's 35-3. Right, right. How charged it was. Right. Like, it could be charged at kickoff, and then Michigan gets going. And Michigan has started slow the last couple weeks. It took a little bit before they got revved up against Indiana. I mean, hell, Bowling Green, McCarthy had like two picks in the red zone.

So it has taken them a little bit to get started. But this Michigan State team also, I think, is – I think you're worried about the floor dropping out of this Michigan State. It's fragile. They – like, they should have beaten Rutgers. They let Rutgers back in that game. Right. I think you're worried about the floor dropping out of this Michigan State. It's fragile. They should have beaten Rutgers. They let Rutgers back in that game. And it's just, yeah, you kind of wonder where they're at.

Their coach is done. They're going to have a new staff next year. This is the portal era, which means a lot of them might not be there next year. So how do they handle this situation? And Michigan, they didn't cover against Rutgers. You go back to that game, but you look at the way Rutgers has played the rest of the season, you're like, oh, the way they beat Rutgers is actually really impressive

when you look at it this way. Yeah. So I just, everything Michigan has done has been impressive. They just feel like they are very well put together. Everybody does what they're supposed to do. And they've got younger guys that they're sprinkling in, that they're trying to get experience. If you're going to have a schedule like this

that does not really challenge you until the second week of November, they're handling it the right way where they're going to have so many guys who played significant snaps by the time they get to Penn State. I think they're in pretty good shape. They played like,

they played a nuts amount of defensive linemen. I think they played like 12 defensive linemen against Indiana. Like, and not just like, like they played 12 defensive linemen, like double digit snaps kind of stuff. Like guys get in here. Yeah. Yeah. and then Harbaugh at the end of the game was thanking every single assistant coach for developing all of like it it's a it's a big kumbaya moment and honestly we're not going

to see them get challenged until Penn State and that's okay I'll take Michigan to cover here just because I do think there's a little bit of nastiest nastiness up front that will just cause Michigan to be punitive against Michigan State and that that will make it worse yeah I like that's the thing like yes Michigan State's gonna be motivated here and their fans are gonna be really getting after Michigan yada yada but Michigan also is is gonna want to leave no doubt and if Michigan's up, I don't know if the dogs get called off to the extent that maybe they were called off. I just think they let the backups score like crazy.

Yeah. It's the old Steve Spurrier thing. Well, you should stop the backups. Right, right. I don't think Jim's calling the dogs off here like he may have done against Indiana or Rutgers or whoever. Yeah. This will be a good one. Let's head back down

south. Duke heads to Florida State. Does not look like Riley Leonard is available. They hope he can play, but that was a pretty nasty looking ankle sprain against Notre Dame. So I don't know if it matters if Riley Leonard plays, but this is a 13 and a half point spread. It feels like if he were healthy,

I would be very comfortable taking Duke to cover and Florida State to win. I just don't know if Duke has enough to keep up with Florida State. I do think Duke can hold Florida State's output down because Duke's defense is pretty damn good. I do too. And like, that's the thing. It's pretty much a Riley Leonard or not thing for me here. If Leonard was, but here's the thing about if Leonard was playing.

If Leonard was playing, he's playing on a gimpy wheel. Right. Which really hampers, like against Clemson, obviously you saw what he did against Clemson where he was able to escape the pocket and generate big plays by himself against a good defense. Even if he was playing in this game, he wouldn't have that. Yeah, I do think Duke will be frisky with Florida State. I like Florida State. I think Florida State's probably going to win the ACC, but

there's a level. I think Florida State. I think Florida State's probably going to win the ACC. But there's a level. I think Florida State is not at the level of your Michigans. Like, there's a gap there, in my opinion. Yeah, and that's the thing that I think the way they played against LSU, it looked like that gap may have closed. But I'm not sure. Like, you go to the Clemson game, to the Boston college game, and you kind of wonder maybe, maybe it is still there a little bit.

I think Florida state is built to get to the playoff. I'm not sure they are built to win a game when they get there, but at this point, given where they've been, get to the playoff is great progress for them. So, and I, I'm excited. Like Florida state, North Carolina ACC championship game looks like a hell of a lot of fun. Yeah. And it looks like that's what we're going to get.

So I'm excited about that. I think Florida state covers Leonard is day to day. According to Mike Elko, Mike Norvell says they're preparing as if he's going to play. I think Florida state covers here. Cause I think you're right. Even if he's playing, he's probably not Florida State covers here because I think you're right. Even if he's playing, he's probably not 100%.

And Duke's offense is probably not capable of keeping up with Florida State, even though Duke's defense will probably keep them from scoring the way they did against Syracuse and other games. But I don't know, though, because the thing about

the Florida State offense, Richard, like Keon Coleman, when he gets going, there's nobody who can stop him. Yeah. And it's I don't he's not like you don't take him away unless you're going to do a New England Patriots one double everywhere he goes. And you're just it doesn't matter. And you're just putting two people on him when he goes to the bathroom. And Johnny Wilson's back this week, which makes that even more difficult exactly he was out last week if you've got that six seven dude in the middle of the field there's not much like that safety's got some some tough choices to make so this is yeah i'm gonna go with florida state here

i think i think they're rolling until they get to the the championship game that we'll see if miami can put up a fight against them but i think they're rolling for a while yeah look we know it'll be miami super bowl because we've seen that over the years but yeah i uh i like florida state here minus uh especially minus 13 and a half i'll take uh thank thankful for the hook on this yes yes. Yes. Thankful for not going up to 14. That would make it a little more complicated. But here's one. I find this line a little bit interesting, Richard. Ole Miss at Auburn. Ole Miss is a six and a half point favorite on the road. I understand Jordan-Hare is the kind of place where on certain days the visiting team does not have a chance no matter

how good it is I feel like Auburn's fan base a little bit down after the last couple weeks especially after the way it went against LSU I think Ole Miss can come in here and and cover this thing I think yeah like Ole Miss I believe Ole Miss is coming off a bye um I like I'll I'll take it I just there's just nothing Auburn can do on offense in my opinion here to to to keep up and I think that Ole Miss frankly is better up front on defense than they have been uh yes under Lane Kiffin and I will take those factors combined and I'll take Ole Miss. Right, because Ole Miss' defense is not built to stop a good passing team. They had to hang on by the skin of their teeth to beat LSU.

But they can handle a good running team that can't throw. Right, and Auburn's running the single wing out there. Yeah, in a styles-make-f fights situation, that's where it is. The Hugh Freeze Ole Miss factor, it actually doesn't really matter. Hugh Freeze coached against Ole Miss when he was at Liberty. So we've already seen that. We don't have to revisit all that. But yeah, Auburn's not there.

He's going to have to retool the roster completely again. The retooling he did in that first off season just didn't work. He's going to have to revamp the whole thing, but I'm confident he'll get to it. That they'll, he'll put together a roster eventually that's competitive there, but it's just not, not happening this year.

So yeah, I'll take Ole Miss to cover and let us, let's go out West. This is a fascinating one. Utah at USC. USC is six and a half point favorite at home after getting demolished by Notre Dame. It feels like Utah is now, I think internally, they already knew what the deal was with Cam Rising

and that they probably wouldn't get to play him this year. But they're telling us now. I find the way they manage that situation publicly, frankly, quite ridiculous. Like you, you cannot go out there for six straight weeks and pretend like this guy was going to play. And then he has to come out and say, no, it's not just an ACL. It was basically the whole knee.

Yeah. Wow. I do not think they handled that situation well at all well and I think they felt like they could get by and then maybe he'd be ready but now they're in a situation where Cam Rising may want to play another year in college NIL is a thing he's a good quarterback like they can't play him now and have him get a red shirt, a medical red shirt. He has to miss the whole season for that to happen.

Brant Keithy would have to miss the whole season. So they have to make that decision. And that's not a Utah decision. That's not a Kyle Whittingham decision. That's a cam rising in Brant Keithy decision. Do we want to play? And then attempt to go like, cause like what are cam rising's nfl

prospects yeah right cam rising a seventh year at utah their first year in the big 12 where they might be favored to win the big 12 like that probably feels like a better deal. He's already got a truck. They all got a truck. They all got a truck. Yeah. Yeah. I USC is, I think we may have overrated USC's offense because you look at some of the, not some of every defense they played until they played Notre Dame. And you sort of look back in totality and you're like, maybe they were selling us a bill of goods. Is it good? Yeah. Is it great? Yeah.

Is it 50 points a game? Probably not. Not against this good team. You score 30 in regulation against Arizona, and you're inept and unable to do absolutely anything against Notre Dame. I think they struggle to run the ball against a decent run defense, which hampers them. I think Caleb Williams is trying to do too much.

I think they are – there's – I think it boils down to Caleb go back there and figure something out, which i don't think is a winning business model against utah right because utah will look at what notre dame did they will send lots of well they don't even have to probably don't even have to send lots of people no you just have to affect him off the edge yeah because when he wasn't doing that notre dame game he was not stepping up in the pocket when edge pressure came. He was, he bails and then you change the rush angles and then you create sacks that aren't there. He, those two interceptions that sailed, he's rushing those, he's throwing those off bad platforms. Like he was, I thought he was panicking in that game.

Right. And Jonah Ellis, nine sacks already for you, you for Utah like they can get home with four if they want to against this offensive line and perhaps they bring some more pressure from from some other places to to change the picture up for him but that's what I would do is I would try to just try to have somebody in his face and see if he panics again, because you're right. The, the interceptions he threw against Notre Dame were, I am trying to do everything myself. I, I know I can, I can move around. If I can just get this ball off, it's going to be fine. It's not fine against a good defense. That doesn't work. Yeah, exactly. and the whole like i'm gonna sit back

there for 15 seconds and wait for somebody to pop open is also not finding it's good defense um and so just because of that like i'm taking utah i might i might take utah outright on a money line i haven't looked at what the number is on the money line, but I don't know. I just, I'm a little worried about Utah's offense a little. This is my question. And this is sort of like, this is the question I had with the, a little bit with the Auburn LSU game last week is as incompetent as LSU's defense has been, is it incompetent enough to make Auburn's offense competent? And the answer was no. Auburn's offense competent? And the answer was no.

Right. Auburn's offense did not do anything. You sort of didn't get a proper assessment of USC's defense against Notre Dame because of what was happening in that game. It was short fields. Yeah. That was not Alex Grinch's fault. And if you take that combined with the last three quarters of

Arizona, I think you can talk yourself into, they are somewhat turning a corner on defense. Okay. If you want to do that, I get that. So Utah has a plus two Oh five money line. That's tasty. That's tasty. So I we're, we're going to disagree on this one. I am going to take USC to cover here. Okay. You tend to play Utah well in LA. I realized different coaching staffs, all that stuff.

Sometimes we've only seen with Lincoln Riley once, or we haven't seen with Lincoln Riley at all yet. We've only seen him play them in salt Lake and Las Vegas, but they do tend to play them better in LA. I am worried about the utah offense if the utah now i will say this if the utah offense is is very effective against usc and moves the ball regularly they need to drive alex rich to a tarmac and fire him if if my thing is if utah hits explosive but but Utah is able to hit explosive plays yes game

there's like come on there's no hope like you you have to play Washington and Oregon after this yeah there's no hope if you can't stop them if Utah methodically drives it three yards in a cloud of dust okay that's Utah's thing now are going to have to figure out how to handle blocking and tackling because Utah's got a safety running wildcat quarterback, which is what they figured out on the bye week. So Utah's got a plan here to come in here and try to make this what you think they're going to try to make. They're going to try to come in here, make this a barroom brawl,

and you've got to figure something out. Can they control the clock, keep Caleb Williams off the field, that sort of game? If they're able to play a classic Utah game, then okay. I'm excited to watch this because there's a little bit of train wreck fascination with USC at this point. But what will Utah bring out of the bag of tricks? Because we know now it's not going to be Cam Rising, we think.

They still left the door open this week. The clock is ticking. I'm just assuming he's not playing. I'm assuming he's not playing, too, either. He will lead Utah into the Big 12 next year, armed with a medical red shirt his seventh season and he's going back so I'm going to assume that but I will take USC to cover this time and again if like you said if Utah hits explosive plays on the USC defense Lincoln Riley will have to do what

must be done there will be no further questions about that. Let us move on to the big game. The big moon kickoff in Columbus, Penn State at Ohio State. Ohio State now three and a half point favorite. I believe they opened as a five and a half point favorite. So the folks heavy on Penn State so far. Richard, I think this really comes down to how Penn State's defense can affect Kyle McCord. Because if they don't give him time, they've got a chance. That Notre Dame game, I was there.

And that last drive, we were standing in the opposite end zone. So I'm watching him kind of like the old Madden view where you're just watching what the quarterback sees. And when he was under pressure, it was touch and go. But when he had time, that dude was absolutely precise. Like he was awesome. So big game for Ohio State's offensive line here. I also think you have a situation here where I think Manny Diaz gets to be an absolute sicko in this game.

Because you've got corners and you've got DBs that you think are good enough to hold up. Now look, number 18 is as good as they got in college football. He could probably improve a lot of NFL wide receiver rooms like yesterday. But I think your strategy here is you go in that DB room and say, fellas, you may have a bad time on Saturday, but we need you. We need you to hold up in coverage just long enough because we are going to bring the kitchen sink at Kyle McCord. And that's the game plan.

I think another question is how healthy is Travion Henderson? He's missed the last couple games. They need him. Their rushing attack is different when he's playing. Maryland beat them over the head with a blunt object for almost three full quarters. They said he could have played against Maryland, but then he didn't play against Purdue either. A healthy Travion Henderson, I think, makes a big difference for them. For Penn State, this is the Drew Allard.

It's not the Drew Allard legacy game. He's a first-year starter. But this is his chance to show that he raises Penn State's ceiling. Yeah. Because Penn State is a good program that lives a notch below Ohio State and Michigan. The only way they change where they live is they gotta win these games so you gotta go to Columbus and you gotta take it and the only way to do that is Drew Aller has a big game I think they I think it's like 10 of 11 or something

Ohio State's one um I what do you think about whether Penn State's been playing possum on offense or not? I don't think they've been playing possum. I think, I think they do not have as dynamic or receiving core as they thought they would have. Yeah. As we thought. Yeah. I think they thought Dante Cephas would, would have broken out by this point and that hasn't happened and I just I don't think they feel like they have guys who can separate in the way that like Jahan Dotson could I like they I

don't know what uh what what the result was on on Saturday after they dominated UMass but before the UMass game I think it was seven pass attempts that were 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage in the air, which is not awesome. You're going to have to do that against Ohio State at some point in time in this game. To your playing possum point, though, their defense is so good that I'm sure Drew Aller has had it drilled into his head, like, don't put the ball in danger. Our defense is great. We can punt and play defense if it's not there.

Yeah, yeah. And it's, I will say, savvy scheduling for Penn State as well. Yeah. Get two bye weeks in a row. Basically, yeah. To prep for this Ohio State game. Yeah. And so this is huge because they get Michigan in state college.

This is probably the closest they've been to Ohio state in terms of straight dudes, in terms of, of this many NFL players on the field at the same time, like Olufashnu versus JT Tumilau. Can't wait to see it. Yep. Yep. JT in the fourth quarter of that game last year,

that may be the best quarter we've ever seen anybody play. We're going to talk about legacy games. That was a legacy game. Yeah, exactly. So that they have, but they, they're going to have to protect our better than they protected Clifford at

the end of that game. And maybe they can, and maybe our allows himself to be protected better. Maybe his level of talent allows that to happen. But I'm so excited for this game because I do feel like this is as close as Penn State has been to those other superpowers in the Big Ten. And if they don't do it now, I'm not sure when they're going to do it. Yeah, and that's the thing. And I think you understand how, if you're a Penn State person,

you can talk yourself into, Al is young and will be back next year. But what they've got on defense, I think just really, like, it does feel like an if-not-now-then-when situation for Penn State to get, particularly Ohio State. Particularly Ohio State. I'm taking Penn State.

I'll take Penn State to cover. I'll take Penn State to win straight up. But for the purposes of this exercise, I'm taking them to cover. They better do it here. Yeah, I'm also taking Penn State. I'm taking Penn State to win. Alright. And I'm very curious about how this one plays out.

You know, if Ohio State loses this game, I think you're going to look back on the season and say, oh, that was coming. Like, that was coming. Like that was coming. You survived against Notre Dame. You beat Maryland, but it took you a while to get rolling there. Similarly to I think you look at USC last week and you say, oh, that was coming. They've had that in them all season. The sequencing of the game just wasn't what it was.

I think you may look back on Ohio State if they lose this game and say the same thing. Well, we will find out. I cannot wait. Noon on Saturday. Richard, this has been a pleasure. Thank you so much. Always a pleasure, Andy. Always. Listen to Richard on the Split Zone Duo podcast. Read him at sports illustrated best