Andy & Ari On3 - Week 9 Picks | Michigan’s Sign-Stealing | Georgia-Florida | Tennessee-Kentucky | Ohio St - Wisconsin

Episode Date: October 24, 2023

It's our Week 9 Picks Show, but first we have more news on Michigan's sign-stealing scandal, and this is a very important wrinkle in the story.(0:00-5:55) Intro, Michigan Sign-Stealing Update(5:56-16:31) Hypothetical 12-Team Playoff(16:32-21:30) Week 9 Picks, Intro(21:31-28:13) Ohio State - Wisconsin(28:14-33:51) Oklahoma - Kansas(33:52-42:49) South Carolina - Texas A&M(42:50-57:39) Georgia - Florida(57:40-1:06:37) Tennessee - Kentucky(1:06:38-1:12:53) Duke - Louisville(1:12:54-1:20:38) Oregon - Utah(1:20:39-1:26:12) Colorado - UCLA(1:26:13-1:30:10) Wrapping Up, ConclusionToday’s show is sponsored by Fanduel! Visit Fanduel.com/Staples and use the promo code Staples. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Thank you to FanDuel* for delivering the lines for this week's slate of games!This show is also sponsored by Gametime. Want to see your favorite team play this weekend? How about your favorite artist coming to town for a show? Look no further than Gametime for all your last minute deals. Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed.Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and don't forget to subscribe!https://youtu.be/3d2SfZNFp9w* Must be 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visitFanDuel.com/RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia, or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call [phone] for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. As you can see, I am on the road. News doesn't stop, but sometimes I have to stop when I'm driving home from Athens, Georgia, because we got something we have to talk about. And that's what's happened here. I am in Eatonton, Georgia, best known as the town where they filmed My Cousin Vinny. And we're going to talk about Michigan. We got a big show tonight, Picks show. Clark Brooks, our analytics guide on three, he's joining us. He'll be our special guest picker. We are imagining what the 12-team playoff would look like with our projected 12-team field.

But first, we need to talk about the Michigan sign-stealing scandal. Say that five times fast. Michigan sign-stealing scandal. Say that five times fast. Michigan sign-stealing scandal. Just a crazy update on this story from Pete Thamel at ESPN. Connor Stallions, the staffer at Michigan who's been suspended in this case, was found to have purchased tickets for over 30 games at 11 different Big Ten schools. And Thamel cited sources from 11 different Big Ten schools confirming that this happened. The NCAA is expected to get evidence that someone using tickets purchased by Stallions

was filming one of the sidelines for the entire time. They're going to use the surveillance cameras from the stadium to show someone using their phone to film a sideline for an entire game. So this is not an isolated incident. This apparently goes back quite some time. And if they get that video, they've pretty much got them dead to rights. And what that means going forward is Michigan will be in trouble for this. Jim Harbaugh will be in trouble for this. Because remember, Jim Harbaugh said last week he had no knowledge of this. If this goes back three years, that statement becomes less believable. I think it would be an accurate term for that. But even if it doesn't, even if it was entirely true,

even if he didn't know, the way the NCAA rules work now, the head coach is on the hook for pretty much anything anyone in the organization does. And so if they have evidence of this happening, and it's hard evidence, which this would be, then they can attach it to the head coach. They can punish the head coach. And remember, Jim Harbaugh already embroiled in an NCAA investigation involving recruiting. That's the cheeseburger gate where he bought a cheeseburger, allegedly, for a recruit that was there on a visit during COVID. And it's not really for that that he he's in trouble it's for the way he answered the questions to the NCAA remember he served a three-game suspension imposed by Michigan with the hope that that would kind of get out ahead of everything and that if the when the committee on infractions

finally ruled it would be a shorter suspension or wouldn't be a suspension at all now you add this to it now Now I still think this is one of those situations where it would be nice if the NCAA could act quickly or if the Big Ten could act in a disciplinary capacity because again this is the sort of thing that moves the line. FAMO reported that Connor Stallions had bought tickets on both sidelines for this past week's Penn State-Ohio State game. Remember, the news of this broke last week. So if there was a plan to do something at that game, that plan already would have been in place. So this is one of those things that, again, it's a competitive equity issue. It moves betting lines. Something probably needs to be done fairly

quickly on it. But again, it's the NCAA. They don't normally move that fast. But this is very detailed, very in-depth, very interesting. So we will find out what happens going forward. But they will be able to get Jim Harbaugh on this as long as they get that evidence that they're seeking. If they get that surveillance video that shows someone using Connor Stallion seats, filming a sideline of an upcoming opponent, they got it. That's pretty much it. And you can say whatever you want about, they don't need to have a rule that says you can't scout upcoming opponents in person. They probably don't. That rule exists because in the 90s when they outlawed it, a bunch of schools were too cheap to do it. But it doesn't matter. That rule exists.

And just the whole depth, breadth, and scope of this is amazing. How long will this take? We don't know because again, it's the NCAA. It does not move quickly, but I will say one thing more on this subject. I hope whoever bought these tickets was using game time. Game time is one of our partners. It is the best way to get last minute tickets to a game. If you've got to get 30 sets of tickets and you've got to get them on both sidelines at 11 different Big 10 stadiums. Game time has all of those tickets. It's pretty tough when you need to get tickets on both sidelines. The beauty of game time is when you're in that game time app, you can see exactly what

your vantage point would look like. So if you are trying to figure out, can I see a team's offensive and defensive signals from this seat? Well, you'll know. So you find that seat. You click it. Two more taps. That ticket is yours. And use the code STAPLES.

You get $20 off your first purchase. So download the GameTime app. Even if you're just going to enjoy the game. Let's say you wanted to go see Florida play Georgia in Jacksonville this weekend. Or you wanted to see Oregon play Utah and Salt Lake City, and you don't plan on stealing any signs at all. Go to game time. Use the code staples $20 off your first purchase. It's still Monday and we've got to do our 12 team projected playoff. If there were a 12 team playoff, because as each week goes by the more and more, I dream of what this 12 team playoff if there were a 12 team playoff because as each week goes by the more and more I dream of what this 12 team playoff will look like and wish that we had a 12 team playoff to look forward to at the end of this season because I feel like there's so many teams that

could make some noise they could win some games it would be a fun fun tournament unfortunately we're not going to get that but we can can still dream. And we can also talk about where everybody winds up in relation to everybody else, but through the lens of that 12 team playoff, because we got to retrain our brains. We have to retrain our brains. It's coming. And next year, we're going to be on the precipice of college football playoffs, selection committee rankings. And all of a sudden, it won't matter who's in the top four or five or six. It's going to matter who's in the top 16 or 18, because they're still going to have a chance to make the playoff.

And I think that's a big distinction. It's a big difference. So let's talk about what this might look like this year. So when I did the college football playoff and New Year's Six projection on Sunday night, I had to put North Carolina in the Orange Bowl because I had Florida State projected to make the playoff. And I had to put North Carolina in the Orange Bowl because the Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC.

You have to have an ACC school in there. So you take the next highest ranked ACC school. If I were given my druthers right now, I don't know that I'd put North Carolina in there. So you take the next highest ranked ACC school. If I were given my druthers right now, I don't know that I'd put North Carolina in there. That loss to Virginia makes me feel like they're going to take another loss along the way that they might lose in the ACC championship game to Florida state. And suddenly they're out of it completely. So I was hoping maybe I could have Utah in that spot, but I can't in that situation. In this situation, I can. So here's how I broke it down. Projecting Georgia to win the SEC, be at number one. I think that's

probably how it's going to go, though. I am very curious to see what the committee does next week. Do they have Michigan ranked ahead of Georgia because Michigan is just destroying everybody? I think it probably depends on what happens in Jacksonville. What does Georgia do against Florida? Do they sleepwalk through the game? Is it tight going into the third quarter, into the fourth quarter? Or does Georgia come out like they did against Kentucky and steamroll Florida? That would probably incentivize the committee to put Georgia at number one.

But I think it's going to be Georgia or Michigan at number one. So I've got Georgia at number one as the SEC champ. Michigan number two as the Big Ten champ is here. I'll apologize again. I predicted Penn State all offseason to win the Big Ten. That does not appear like it's going to happen. We saw Penn State's offense against Ohio State. It was not pretty.

So I've got Michigan number two, Big Ten champ, Florida State number three, the ACC champ. I think Florida State, that win against Duke was big. Yes, they were on the ropes until Riley Leonard really aggravated that ankle injury, but I think Florida State has the tools to play with a Michigan or a Georgia where a lot of these other teams, maybe not if they got matched up with them. Number four, Oklahoma. Yes, they survived UCF. Our friend Parker Fleming does the how bad did we really get beat graphic every Monday where it measures net success rate. Oklahoma actually had a much better net success rate than UCF, but UCF hit some big plays,

and that's why that game was close. Number five, Ohio State, the Buckeyes defense vastly improved. No Penn State's offense, not that great, but I think a lot of that had to do with how good Ohio State's defense is. And so I've got them at number five as the highest ranked non-conference champ. Remember, even if I think Ohio State is better than one of the four teams that I have one through four, I got to have a champion in those slots. That's how the system's going to work. The top four have to be conference champs. They get buys. So Ohio State would get a home game, but would have to play in that first round. I've got Washington as a Pac-12 champ. I'm not confident about that right now, but it's sort of a placeholder, whether that's Washington, Oregon,

or Utah, one of those probably in that spot. And also because of how Washington played against Arizona State, because it looks like Utah is going to make some noise in this thing, I still have a hard time seeing anybody getting through the Pac-12 unscathed, or it's getting harder to see anybody getting through the Pac-12 title game with one loss just because there's a lot of good teams at the top, so it may cannibalize itself. So I've got Washington at six right now as the Pac-12 champ. Texas isn't at large.

We'll see. We'll see. Quinn Ewers is hurt. He's going to miss some time. Malik Murphy came in against Houston. Texas survived, but they got BYU this week. They got a very much improved Kansas State next week. That is not out of the Big 12 race. Remember, Kansas State has two losses, but one of those is to Missouri, which does not count for the Big 12 race. That's one to watch. So got Texas here.

Will Texas stay here is another question. Longhorns are going to have to do well with a backup quarterback in the game. Number eight, Alabama. It basically depends on which quarter you're getting Alabama. Second half of that Tennessee game, they look like they could beat anybody in the Alabama. Second half of that Tennessee game, they look like they could beat anybody in the country. First half of that Tennessee game, they look like they could lose to any team in the country.

That makes them a very dangerous playoff team. And here, I've got them at number eight, but this is where it'll get really interesting when the playoff is actually 12 teams because eight and nine, big difference. Eight, you get a home game. Nine, you are going on the road. So that really is going to be a matter of perception between those teams

and how good of a week you just had may determine where you are. Now, that could be a team that's not in a conference championship game. So the committee may be looking at what they did a week and a half ago, but it is going to be a very intriguing selection at four and five, at eight and nine, and obviously at 12 and 13, or 11 and 12, depending on how low ranked the ranked the, uh, the highest ranked group of five champ is if it's even the group of five anymore. I don't know what we're going to call it, but I've got Alabama there. I've got Oregon at nine. I've got Utah at 10 Penn state at 11

air force at 12. That's your, your highest ranked group of five champ, uh, air force beat Navy non-conference game. Good for the commander inin-Chief's trophy for Air Force. But we'll see what happens. That is probably going to be Air Force if they keep winning. My guess is if Air Force does not keep winning and Tulane does, Tulane will occupy that spot as the American champ. We will see what happens though. Because right now,

if a 12 team playoff started this year, your first round would be this. Number 12 Air Force at number five, Ohio State. And the winner would play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Number 11, Penn State at number six, Washington. They've played in some bowls recently. The winner would play number three, Florida State in the Cotton Bowl. Number 10, Utah at number seven, Texas,

the Cam Rising Bowl. Remember Cam Rising started his career at Texas. Winner would play number two, Michigan in the Orange Bowl. And then number nine, Oregon at number eight, Alabama. Winner playing number one, Georgia in the Peach Bowl. That Dan Lanning versus Nick Saban matchup. Bo Nix back at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Wow, that would be fun. Unfortunately,

the Alliance screwed it for everybody. So thank you, ACC and Pac-12. Great job, guys. Great job. Big Ten was involved too, but that was mostly hoodwinking the other ones. So at least they were, you know, doing something nefarious. The other ones were just getting fooled. So that's why you don't have a 12-team playoff this year. Thank you so much. But the 14 one's going to be pretty intriguing too. And I think what happens this week will help determine those first college football playoff committee rankings when we see those. I am very excited to see what they do. Like we said, Georgia or Michigan, number one, because this is one where I could see them going Michigan and then the polls, the human polls flip to Michigan because it would be them saying that

Georgia being number one was a product of preseason hype, a product of Georgia winning the past two national titles, but not necessarily a product of what we've seen on the field this year. So I'd be very curious to see what they do. Will they put Michigan in that number one spot? And, you know, that would require Michigan to keep winning the way it is. Nothing Michigan has done suggests that that's going to stop anytime soon Georgia has got to show us a little more what they showed us against Kentucky if they do that I think they're going to be fine and they will not have to worry about where they're ranked they'll just have to

worry about continuing to win games we got to start picking some games now though. We got some really interesting lines. It is a week of road favorites, sometimes big road favorites. And you know, that's always dangerous, especially the later you get in the season. These lines brought to you by FanDuel. Go to FanDuel.com slash staples and sign up.

First $5 bet. You get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets. FanDuel is America's number one sports book. You can play basically anything where they have a ball, a racket, you name it. The NBA season starts this week. A lot going on there. There's always action to be found at FanDuel, and there's a ton of action in college football this week. Some very interesting lines, a couple interesting totals. Unfortunately, no Iowa total this week because they are off.

FanDuel is probably okay with that because that one, that one feels like a free square almost. That one, that one is, is hit six times in eight games so far. So I think that they're probably happy that there's going to be a little more variability in these other ones. So FanDuel.com slash staples bet five,

$200 in guaranteed bonus bets. We welcome Clark Brooks. You can find them at the S at sec stat cat on Twitter. Mr. Advanced analytics, Mr. The most impactful players in the Country. That's one of my favorite things that you have to do is the 300 most impactful players in the country.

While I don't necessarily like waking up at Monday mornings dreaming of stat tables and colored formatted spreadsheets, I do love absolutely diving in and see who can be the most impactful players on a weekly basis. Of course, statistically, defensively, how are you getting stops? How are you getting havocs? Offensive players, skilled players, you know, stuff like EPA, per touch, efficiencies, offensive line, not allowing those things that the defenders are seeking. So yeah, a lot of different apples and oranges, but it's still very, very fun and a labor of love, no doubt. It is great and i always wonder like how do you decide between 257 and 258 do you get complaints from 258 about why they weren't 256 well it's just more so how could you forget about this guy like there's so many players

just like someone like ricky pierce or um uh brennan rice for instance like where they've been fairly good throughout the year but you know they have a week where they just pop off and like they expect him to be a top 15 receiver because that awesome week I mean it requires a little bit more nuance a little bit you know not so much knee-jerk reactions but still at the same time recognizing some games matter more than others well I am glad that you mentioned Ricky Pearsall and that big game against South Carolina. And how could you not notice that? We will get into that because we're going to be picking Florida, Georgia. We're going to be picking quite a few games this week.

Unfortunately, you're not getting the full experience, Clark, because Iowa's not playing. So you don't get to pick the Iowa under as your free square. Do you think you could have been below 30, like 30 and a half like it was last week? Do you think you would have risen a little bit from where the trajectory was going at? Well, so it opened it. The Minnesota-Iowa opened at 34 and a half and then dropped to 30 and a half. And that was what we said last week when we did the show, is will this drop below 30 by game time?

And, you know, it should have. It should have. What was it, 22 with the final? Yeah. Now, here's the thing. If they allow the punt return and kick the extra point, it's 29. It's 29. So it would have hit under 30 anyway.

It's truly amazing to me how this all works. And I just, I love it. Like how razor thin those margins can be. Yeah, absolutely. Those over-unders, like I just don't know how great they are and how scary good they can be at times setting those lines. Well, yeah. And you wonder, it's like, I know they take pride in it.

It's their job. And, you know, how sicko do you have to be, though, when you're setting an Iowa under or setting an Iowa total? Like, do you go, do I knock one off here? Because I know, you know they're going to bet it down. Yeah, it's almost like the Jane Lynch from Glee is like, I'm going to make an over under so drastically low. And like, you know, that mean whatever.

It's just like, it's almost a game at this point for real. How low can they realistically make it without people thinking, okay, that's just, that's just too much. That's too much. Like I would say at this point for real, like for me, I wouldn't mind betting the odor until it gets around like 27 and a half under that 28 barrier where it's you know that 14 13 type of back and forth there but yeah it's it's definitely an historically fun uh

statistic i guess to monitor for the rest of the season of course we gotta manage we gotta manage how many points that offense scores now andy i don't know where they are on uh the quest for reaching that to retain they retain. They're not getting there. We stopped counting. We stopped counting. They're not even close. Would the bowl game count? Because I know they went off a little bit in their bowl game against Kentucky last year with that 21-0. The bowl game counts

because it counts toward the win total, but it doesn't matter. They're not going to hit it. It's not going to happen. Given the teams they're going to play, which have pretty good defenses, they're just not – they're not there. Remember, they've only eclipsed 25 points twice this season.

Yeah. So – Right. Ah. Even though we don't have it, it does my heart good that we're talking about it. So – Yes, absolutely. I mean, it's not something necessarily to ignore. Like I said, it does my heart good that we're talking about it. Yes, absolutely. I mean, it's not something necessarily to ignore.

Like I said, it's an historic feat, and it needs some proper acclaim, some proper recognition, no doubt. All right, enough about who's not playing, Clark, because I was not playing this weekend, unfortunately. That one's a gimme, and we don't have the gimme. I will start you in the Big Ten, though, and I will start you with the theme of the week and the theme of the week is home underdogs now this is a big home underdog the Wisconsin Badgers plus 14 against Ohio State coming off the Penn State game. Now, do you get a sleepy Ohio State after all the buildup and they beat Penn State?

Or do you get an Ohio State saying, we found some things we needed to work on against Penn State. Let's just take it all out on the Badgers and poor Braden Locke. I think it's a little bit more of the latter because of the ability of how Ohio State's front has been able to play as of late. So we've heard the dairy raid. That was one of the big emphasis this offseason. Unfortunately, they've been rather grounded and they're going to have to lean through Braylon Allen.

But with Michael Hall, JTT, Tyleek Williams, and of course Tommy Eichenberg, who's kind of had a quiet season, but he's still a ferocious old-school middle linebacker in the middle of that defense. I just don't see how Wisconsin can be able to move the ball consistently against this defense. And of course, when they do have to drop back and pass, they have to attack Denzel Burke and Igbekinson, who's been a fantastic transfer from Ole Miss.

So Jim Knowles, who has been a fantastic hire. He's in year two directing that defense. He is not getting enough acclaim in my opinion so far this season. You know, when having that Penn State on in the background, I had the volume low. I'm not sure how much his name was dropped throughout the broadcast, but in my opinion, he's been a godsend for that program to get them on the right track and potentially get them over the recent hump that the Michigan Wolverines have been providing them. It's what, it's what they needed because their biggest problem prior to Jim Knowles and in Jim Knowles first season was giving up these massive explosive plays, 40 plus yards. They were in the hundreds, I believe in terms of plays allowed of 40 yards or more last year,

this year they're tied for first because it's zero. Like, none. They've not given one up yet. Penn State obviously was not going to help on that front. No, no, not the style of play. Wisconsin's not either. This is, you know, once Tanner Mordecai went down against Iowa, that was kind of it for the Badgers offense.

And, well, really, when Chez Malusi went down and you couldn't kind of it for the Badgers offense and well really I mean when Chez Malusi went down and you couldn't kind of platoon the backs and Braylon Allen suddenly had to carry all of the load and now he's banged up and it's just this is not the season that that Wisconsin wanted to have it I thought they did a good job coming back against Illinois I thought you know after what happened against Iowa Illinois takes that big lead it's like like, eh, you're probably going to pack it in. But they didn't, so. And what a game winner, Andy.

Yeah. The thick six, or not really a thick six, but like we have a big guy touchdown. Oh, I love that. Absolutely love that. It's, the Big Ten West is going to be such an adventure for the rest of the year. Every year there's like, I mean, we almost thought –

I mean, we mentioned earlier with that pumper trip with Cooper. Like, that almost put them in the driver's seat to represent the West there. But, I mean, now – I mean, you could even say Nebraska has a low key shot. Were they 93? Who was locked out last month? There is a chance. No, Sean Callahan from Husker Online and I went over that on the show yesterday. We went through some of what has to happen.

It's hard because you don't want to get the Nebraska fans too excited. Look, bowl eligibility is all they really need. And that's a great stepping stone for Matt Rule, especially after how the first couple of games went. If you had told them you're still going to get a bowl game, you said, I'd take that nine times out of ten. Yeah, but it is possible. And remember, I'd say the Iowa team last year was better than this Iowa team.

And Nebraska, with an interim staff, beat them at the end of the season. So it is not outside of their own possibility that Nebraska can do this. They will have to beat Wisconsin first. But, yeah, I just don't like this matchup. Even if Ohio State comes out sleepy, I don't like this matchup. They cover even if they're sleepy because I just do not see how Wisconsin scores. And I hate, I just hate that I keep saying that for every game in the Big Ten West. Now, usually when it's a Big Ten West versus Big Ten West team, I'm saying I don't see how either team scores.

So at least I know how one of these teams is going to score. But yeah, they can probably let the Maserati idle in the driveway a little bit. Mark Harrison Jr. did what he needed to do. I'll ask you, because as you put together the the most impactful list which will be out this week Marvin Harrison Jr. made a very good case for number one with the way he played against Penn State that and the fact that the top three quarterbacks didn't necessarily have home run weeks either so we'd love to have the Heisman, who entered as the Heisman front runner and had three first half turnovers himself and Michael Penix Jr.

Then you have someone like Caleb Williams who has back-to-back losses. Then you have Drake May who had a fairly solid game, but he had two opportunities to win the game at the end and did not get the job done. So Michael Harrison, or Marvin Harrison Jr., excuse me, has been, either him or Brock Bowers, depending on your preference, week-to-week the best non-quarterback.

So, yes, I absolutely think he has a fantastic case. It's just a matter of if our bosses give me the okay if we can do something. We do like those. We do like Caleb Williams. I think Marvin will pop on that graphic think Marvin will pop on that graphic. Marvin will pop on that graphic. It'll get shared on social. That 6'4 lean frame, it's just gorgeous.

Even if he's just static there, like in picture frame, or if it is like highlight form like we've been seeing all over this season. So, yeah, he's absolutely a wonder to watch. And, you know, it takes a special player like that to knock a quarterback off from the top spot. He's absolutely deserving. Absolutely. Though I do think this will be more of a Chip Traynham,

Mayan Williams running the ball. Just get out of there without getting anybody hurt. Win this game by 17, 18, 21. Who knows? But yes, I will take Ohio State to cover. I usually, you know, two touchdown home dog. I'm usually taking the home team. I can't do it here.

I just can't. Just not enough offense there. And, yeah, I just don't know how they can cap either the physical running backs or the downfield passing. Because that is something that we've seen a little bit more over the last month on Ohio State is letting Kyle McCord throw downfield more as opposed to being a check down Charlie and you know, a facilitator short.

Yeah. And he will have chances to throw down the field quite a bit. Let us move to another home dog. Oklahoma has to Kansas, Oklahoma. We just saw them get scared to death by UCF Kansas. We know how much better they've been but they did lose to Oklahoma State recently uh you got the Jalen Daniels and Jason Bean who's who's it gonna be

situation Lance Leipold his name you know there's there's the Michigan State folks would would sure love to talk to Lance Leipold at some point down the stretch we'll see what happens with Arkansas but oh you brought up Danny you. I wasn't going to. He was one of my least favorite people of the week. My man. So, yeah, I usually like to start the week with a just-win-baby money-line parlay. And that sounds exactly what you're saying. You're just picking four or five teams to just win.

Yep. Nooner Slate, Arkansas, they were a home favorite by six and a half points well the only points that they got this uh weekend was responsible for my mike right interception on the second play of the game it was just an ineptitude of course if you read the headlines this afternoon he was immediately relieved of his duties from his good friend sam pitman so it takes a lot for a friend to make that move in the middle of the season. But the writing was on the wall. They went from the most explosive offense in the SEC.

Basically, one out of five plays was either a 20-yard or more pass or a 10-yard or more run. Flash forward to today, it's under 10%. So it was more cut than half. And, of course, they are dead last in the SEC. And they are on pace to have the worst clip in the SEC under my watch which goes back to 2018 so not a good look and yes change was needed there but I digress yeah well no I I'm glad you went there because I don't know I don't know how much longer Sam Pittman lasts there the the change had to be made at offensive coordinator

you had Dan Enos emailing people back and saying well what plays would you call so this is this is this needed to happen but we'll see what happens on that one lipold is going to be a commodity absolutely this offseason because of what he's done i mean think about how bad kansas was when he took over and how competitive they are now and i'm looking at this 10 and a half Clark, and I'm like, you know? It's frisky. I feel pretty good about it because we saw UCF with an offense that it's not – the Gus offense and what Kansas does are not completely similar, but you do have running quarterbacks, some single-wingy type principles,

that sort of thing. Is Oklahoma disciplined enough defensively to hold the score down? I think Oklahoma can definitely outscore them. The question is, can they hold the score down? Yeah, in my opinion, this is going to be a game where you're going to want to take the over because, you know, right now, Oklahoma, Dylan Gabriel, Heisman, hopeful they are going to be led by their passing game.

Only 66th in the country in EPA per run. Of course, obviously top 10 in pass. And when you're looking at Kansas defensively in the triple digits defending the pass. So while they themselves can produce big plays, explosive plays, and we haven't seen this Oklahoma defense kind of be prone to giving those up on occasion. In my opinion, it's just going to be a matter of how well can they ice the game away in the second half, talking about the Sooners.

Can they run the ball efficiently? Can they get themselves in third and manageable when they do get in those situations, and can they convert to the ground and not having to ask Dylan Gabriel to drop back 50 times. Now he's been fantastic improving his play versus pressure. And even though Kansas has, you know, they lost a decent amount of production in that regard, but it's just because of the fact that they do have those two quarterbacks, no matter who's back there, that fun scheme, they're definitely going to be frisky. It's just, I just think there's going to be too much firepower ultimately from Oklahoma for them for them to pull off the upset but in terms of covering i do like the jayhawks there

at home this is a good test for oklahoma's defense because they didn't have their best game against ucf now 66 and a half is your total yeah that's a big number that's a big number i'm feel good about it i feel classic big 12 matchup and. We're going to get like 44-49 type of game here. That's what I feel. All right. Well, I feel good about it. But we'll bonus pick that one over 66.5. I'm going to take Oklahoma to cover here, though.

I think given what we've seen with the defense, it had its sleepy game. It had its down game. But it has been significantly better this season than last. The long touchdown, I think it was an 86-yard touchdown pass that UCF threw, was the first really nasty coverage bust we've seen from this Oklahoma defense all season. They were doing like three of those a game last year. So I'm confident they get it back. So I'm going to,

I'm going to take Oklahoma to cover. And I have just now picked two double digit road favorites. And this is, this is, this is already going off rails. But Hey, I mean, if you got to,

if you got a method, you got to stick to it. You can't go willy nilly and, you know, pick it, you know, picking and choosing. We got a lot of, we just have a lot of double digit spreads this week.

This is, this is a week where, and, and look, little behind the curtain, we're picking the games we think the most people want to talk about. We're not just not the surefire. We're not just IDing the lead pipe lock of the week here.

This is, we, we are trying to put on an entertaining show for the average college football fan as well, because we don't want you to be, you're like, man, man you guys just talk about mtsu and utsa all the time when you pick the games so that that's that's where we're at so this one is is more of a conversation starter this next one clark because we have to have the conversation south carolina at texas a&m the aggies are a 14 point favorite if you have watched the Aggies play offense of late, you are wondering how that's possible. If you have watched South Carolina play defensive late,

you know exactly why that's possible. It has not been a – all right, let's just say the regression for South Carolina has been expected. Coming into this year, they were the only SEC program each of the last two years to finish bottom five in rush yards before contact on offense and have a bottom five defensive success rate. That's not a good recipe for success, no matter how well your punter can throw the ball, Andy.

It just does not matter. So that has bled over to this year. Of course, you start the season with a really strong opponent in North Carolina, and even though Spencer Rattler has looked a lot better, That has bled over to this year. Of course, you start the season with a really strong opponent in North Carolina. And even though Spencer Rattler has looked a lot better, it's just, yeah, that offensive line has not progressed. And that secondary, despite having some fairly talented names, has not been a consistent unit.

It's even allowed someone like Graham Mertz, who had a bottom three average depth of target and one of the lowest explosive pass rates in the SEC, pick them apart, throw for 400 yards, and completely flip his perception because of one great fourth quarter. Wait, wait. Are you insinuating that he did not become Peyton Manning in that one game? Well, maybe not Peyton Manning, but maybe not even Justin Herbert either, my friend.

I mean, yeah, it's crazy how much people want to say how much better he improved because of feasting on that fantastic secondary of South Carolina who is 115th in the country in EPA per pass does this weekend does Max Johnson last seen getting buried by Tennessee defenders play after play after play does he have a similar bounce back against this defense because it feels like it's not getting better for South Carolina no um I just think I mean look talk about this is another offensive line that's just had a lot of issues Texas A&M they allow a lot of a lot of pressure and havoc as we saw last weekend and Max Johnson he does suffer from drops he does suffer from a high pressure rate so

there are a lot of things outside of his control. And again, that's just not a good recipe for success, even if you are playing, let's just say, a lackluster type of opponent in South Carolina. But because of how strong Moss has come along running the ball, Daniels has been a decent change of pace back for them. And of course, they have a great group of of pass catchers i just think there's so much there for them to win fairly comfortably here because that defense has just been fantastic of course banged up we need to see what happens with walter nolan how long he's going to be out same with edge cooper linebackers both of them just been sack machines it seems like over the last month or so but the way they just turned uh durkin had, you know, last time we talked about like, it looked like it was a mistake of a hire, but you know, how quickly things can change in college football.

And because of how they just had this aggressive downfield oriented attack, I just don't see how South Carolina's offensive line can hold up and give Brantler time either to escape and make plays with his legs where he's been fairly good or stretch the field and find big Xavier Leggett for big plays. So here's all, all of this that we've just said leads to this Texas A&M better win this game. Yeah. This is a must win. Must win. You cannot lose this game at home to a floundering Shane Beamer.

Like, I mean, say what you want about Shane Beamer. He's an easy target for people to say, ha ha ha. He's a, you know, you lost to that guy. He kicked him, kicked something and broke his foot. I mean, come what you want about Shane Bieber. He's an easy target for people to say, ha, ha, ha. He's a, you know, you lost to that guy.

He kicked something and broke his foot. I mean, come on. Jimbo, you cannot lose to the guy who broke his foot because he couldn't figure out how to defend for those receivers. You just can't do it. And that's where they're at. So we saw the hot seat stuff for Jimbo coming out of the Tennessee game. Here's the deal with that.

Right now, they don't have anybody willing to write those checks. If they lose to South Carolina, those people will present themselves. They will volunteer. And that's where it will go. Because, and Jesse Simonton wrote this column early last week, and I thought it was a good point. It's going to happen sooner or later. He's not gonna get

them where they want to go and so the closer they get to a season next year where they end the season with Texas and Texas looks like it is improving and getting to the to the point where it can contend for titles and A&M is sort of stuck in the mud, they're going to make a move unless something changes drastically. And this of course would just send them over the edge. So they have to win this. Yes. I mean, I'm not saying like even this year it was all Jimbo's fault. They just have had terrible luck with their quarterback. So let's say Conor Wegman never goes down. Where would they be? I think they would probably win tennessee i think the momentum would be better but yeah it's just like i think the last three years our starting quarterback entering the season

has gone down obviously it's so hard to try and uh right the ship after something like that happens no matter if you are a uh a quarterback whisper yes or no whether jimbo is or not but like no matter who you are that's a really tough assignment for anybody to try and pick up the pieces. So yeah, this is 100% must win a tight butthole type of ball game for college. I like tight butthole ball game. We, we're going to, we're going to print t-shirts with that, the tight butthole game of the week. And it is, I mean, did it.

And this is why I think South Carolina may be able to cover two touchdowns. And that's why, yeah, because like they put so much pressure on themselves. And again, like even though Rattler playing behind the line, it's not necessarily a great consistent approach. They can capture those explosive plays better than most offenses around the country. And the other thing, and perhaps this is a home away thing it may be just be a Neyland Stadium is very loud and and it affects you but one thing that A&M had a problem with in the Tennessee game was low snaps if that continues that's the sort of

thing it doesn't matter who you're playing it can just wreck your offense because your quarterback is looking down. He's trying to gather the ball. And when he looks back up, here's all these monsters coming right at him. I don't, I don't care how good your pass rushes or bad your pass rushes. It becomes a good one. When the snaps at the guy's shoes. I mentioned that allowed havoc, but I also track a statistic called broken play rates.

Those would be considered broken plays unsurprisingly maybe to uh people who have not been paying attention to the sec but these two offenses are bottom two within the conference in that regard so um i think this can be a safe one for the under but because again is the tight butthole game of the week there's gonna be a lot of mistakes to get to ultimately swing the ball game one way or the other yeah if it were if they weren't playing south carolina i I'd be going, can they score 14 points? This is why I'm taking it.

That's, that's how I picked the Iowa Wisconsin game because Wisconsin was favored, I believe by nine and a half against Iowa. And my thing was, I don't think Wisconsin can score 10 points in this game. So they can't possibly cover that spread. So it was a pretty easy, easy way to pick in this one. They can score against South Carolina's defense. So it was a pretty easy, easy way to pick in this one. They can score against South Carolina's defense.

So it is a little tricky. They could possibly cover, but I think South Carolina winds up covering this. I mean, absolutely. It is a fairly safe bet to do so because of that. It's the same kind of qualms I had with Penn State last week. How many long sustained drives can you get? And if that's your best modus operandi and your offensive line has been shaky,

it's just I just don't see how they can get past the two touchdown margin without either like a special team touchdown or like a pick six or something, which is possible. But just because how South Carolina can keep things close with a little bit more, I guess, offense with teeth in terms of passing downfield. And that's one of the best way to flip fields. I think, yeah, that's a really safe bet for them. Right.

And there is it feels like there's more randomness involved when you have a quarterback who can who can hit big plays down the field. And it brings more randomness into the end of the game. And when in backyard ball situations, he's a lot better of an athlete when things break down than max johnson no no offense to max johnson who is fairly okay at that it's just it's really not his it's not his strength you can see his average depth of target kind of becomes like a check on charlie gets um tunnel vision in that regard and if again you're trying to get those explosive plays it's a lot easier to do that when you're actually throwing down on field, as opposed to putting the heavy lifting on the guys who have to get like 20,

30 yards after the catch, depending on where you target them. Oh man. You keep talking, you're talking me further into South Carolina covering. I, I, the more we talk about it, I might, I'm not going to have them win outright. I'm sorry. Not, not doing that. No money line, even though I'm sure that's a tasty bet. No, no, no, no, no no no no no but i i think that is a fairly frisky bet for a road cover there for sure let us remain in the sec neutral site game georgia and florida ah georgia is a 50 and a half point favorite this was higher in preliminary lines but you come to this week brock bowers is not playing georgia we

don't exactly know what the offense will look like oscar delp is the next guy up but do you do do you run more 11 personnel as opposed to 12 as in one tight end on the field rather than two uh is this loss in lucky time he had a similar injury to brock bowers but is now back does does he get blended into the offense more? Lots of questions that will not be answered until we actually see them play. Yes. But I do suspect them to go more 11 personnel. So one of the big kind of question marks, at least until two weeks ago was George's ability to run the ball, provide cushion for their backs. Missing someone like Darnell Washington was palpable.

It turns out, Andy, having a 6'8", 280-pound tight end helps the run game a little bit. So without him in the fold, they weren't as stout providing cushion. And even though Brock Bowers is a do-it-all tight end, what do I mean by that, folks? He can run, he can block, he can catch. A lot of people want to forget about that second part, but when he's a lead blocker on the edge or you know pulling through the line and sealing people he's just been fantastic no matter what you've been asking him to do that's now off the table so i don't know

exactly how that helps the eclectic run game so over the last couple of years no matter who's been the play call they don't like to hammer anyone look too much they'd like to sprinkle a lot of little things but that requires you know your players to execute those things, know what to do. So with Delp in there, with Lucky maybe playing some more snaps, I just think they'd go a little bit more streamlined to 11 personnel. I think this game is going to be a very basic approach in who can tackle better in space.

So Carson Beck, he's been a fantastic decision maker. He hasn't necessarily been a quarterback that looks to stretch the ball downfield all the time, but still he has made fantastic decisions, whether it is throwing off to the flat, hitting a guy on like an 11-yard curl, or being prudent on throwing the ball into harm's way. So when they were playing Kentucky two weeks ago and they just were dumping it off to the flat and Kentucky's secondary missed 16 tackles, it was really easy for them to stay ahead of the change

and in very advantageous opportunities and that opened up the play action games of course you there was one instance was like third and two and then it was like a play action wide open cross to Bowers you're like how you can let that guy wide open well it's because they're trying to stop the run because they were just so balanced and keeping opponents guessing and of course um on the other side of the ball that has been Graham Murch's kind of concern how can he maximize his consistency with his potency of course we already mentioned playing a a secondary like South Carolina's can grease the bottom line a little bit but uh of course that is not Georgia's problem. They are very, very good, depending on the pass, Andy. A very stout defensive line, providing pressure and havoc type of instances

where he has been quick to throw it towards the flat. Well, Georgia's also a lot better tackling than a lot of other teams. So I just think just because how Georgia is set up to succeed, both staying ahead of the chains on offense and keeping everything in front of them and getting the third down, as well as hardly any SEC defense to this point. It's just really tough to think how Florida can maximize or manufacture those plays that can keep them in the game and within striking distance. Yeah, and against South Carolina, what worked for them?

Obviously, Pierce all had the amazing catch on fourth and 10 and had the touchdown, but you like that little move, huh? I did. I did. But Arliss boarding ham there. They're tight.

Yeah. Yeah. Did a very good job. He had one play where he caught the, it was a, he had to convert it, caught the ball before the sticks made a move, got made a move, converted it, got a first down. I like what he's doing.

They're trying to force feed Eugene Wilson III. They call him Trey. He's so fast. I mean, I think that's the difference maker in that scheme is just getting a little bit more speed on the field because a lot of it, as you can see behind my shoulder here, it's flood-oriented. And it kind of matters when you can have guys that can bend

and get that step on somebody laterally because you can hit them in stride. Those 15-yard completions can turn into 31 yards like that. But if you just can't create that separation, they're just a little bit harder to manufacture. But with him, I don't see why they don't target him a little bit more. I think they're going to. They went into the Tennessee game clearly with a plan to absolutely force feed him. Then he gets hit very hard, hurts his collarbone,

and you don't see him for a few weeks. I think that's been the problem is they've tried to work him into the flow of the offense. He hasn't gotten enough reps to consistently be a big part of it. Now he is getting those numbers of reps, and I do think they're going to be a big part of it now he is getting those numbers of reps and i do think they're going to be a little bit better because that you're going to have to take a lot of risks if you're billy napier if you want to win this game you're going to have to let graham mertz cook which i'm sure is something wisconsin fans are like do what now uh but you saw it in

south carolina now again that's south car Carolina's defense. This is Georgia's defense. But your best chance may be letting him let it rip a little bit. He's been fairly prudent with the ball as well. Very prudent. League, low, turnover-worthy play rate. Forget about throw, play rate. One turnover-worthy play so far this year, right? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

There are varying definitions, of course, for what a turnover-worthy play is. Now, Andy, let's just think if you were to hit Marcus Dial in both biceps with the ball and your intended target is two yards behind that defender, I would say that would be an interceptable turnover worthy pass. But some people, also it's an underthrown ball. It wasn't just someone who just jetted in front of a, you know, a dig or anything. No, this is a purely underthrown ball on the inside hip of a inside bender

post go, whatever you wanted to categorize that. But yeah. And if you hit a defender on the ass and just because he doesn't turn around and play the ball you should not be rewarded for that stuff we just saw a great example and it actually did end up in interception but this was in the tennessee oh yeah off of jermaine burton shoulder yeah where where our homeboy turns around and just you know does that nice like post defense type move, it deflects off of him and it ends up in an interception. Just because he himself did not intercept that ball does not mean that the location of the pass itself

was not turnover worthy, that if you do that play eight times out of ten, it could not potentially result in an interception. So you have to keep those plays in mind. But regardless of what your definition is andy andy dead lowest in the sc he has not put the ball in the harm's way he has been fantastic in that regard and again if you are going to be a conservative um don't go broke or you can't go broke taking a profit type of quarterback that absolutely has to go hand in hand when you don't put the ball in the harm's way because you're not providing a lot of potency and you're putting

the ball in the harm's way. That's just no, no, no, no. But if you are, again, taking those six, eight-yard completions and not giving defenses a reason to get you off the field, all the better. But I just don't think it's going to be a great matchup for the Gators to, one, stay ahead of the chains or potentially get those big plays if they take the handcuffs

handcuffs off of mertz yeah the problem when you're playing georgia is they're usually such good tacklers that they're going to give you those six to eight yard it's almost a design um um i mean it's been kind of out for a couple of years because because they know you're going to miss a throw or drop one and then all of a sudden you're behind the chains. Very much. And then they come get you. Very much. Or they just feel that their safety, sitting in his too high perch,

can beat your guy to the flat and minimize a one-yard completion to three yards at most and not giving you five or six beyond that point after that engagement point because they are such good tacklers and preventing that type of hitting yardage. And again, it's a little bit by design. They want to kind of trick you to think it's open and just beat you to the spot with their athleticism and awesome technique. Yeah. I don't know that Georgia's going to do a whole lot.

We've seen historically when Kirby feels like he has a talent advantage or an advantage period that he's fairly vanilla. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised in the second half if they just, you know, take the arrow of the ball and they just do their duo, which they have done in the past, not so much this season. It does go a little bit hand in hand because of how they haven't been able to push people around as consistently as they have liked. But again, without Bowers in the fold, would not surprise you whatsoever if they just streamline their run game to two, three type of concepts, run those over and over. Obviously, have some plenty of play-action counters to take advantage of over-aggressive back-enders there.

But yeah, I wouldn't expect them to do anything too crazy. Not too many double passes or anything like that, I wouldn't expect them to do anything too crazy. Not too many double passes or anything like that. I wouldn't suspect from Georgia. And this is, this is going to be an interesting kind of gauge for the Florida defense. And the way I'm looking at Florida this year is not, are you winning games like this? I don't expect them to go win a game like this.

I don't expect them to compete with Georgia in a game like this. It's how good are your young players playing as they get bigger roles and how competitive are they against their counterparts on a team like this because i think that's how you judge florida because you look at like they just got a commitment from lj mccray big time commit they have a class coming in that you stack it with last year's class you let some of those guys get some seasoning then you that's how you get out of this. And so that's what I'm looking at for them. Like, I want to see what Shamar James does in this game.

He's been outstanding all year. And he's a guy that Georgia actually, like Georgia wanted him. You hadn't seen as many under Dan Mullen. There weren't a lot of battles where Georgia and Florida wanted the same guy and Florida got him. So this is the, this is the difference, but it's not an overnight thing. And it could be kind of painful to watch it happen in real time. But that's the part I want to see is how those guys compete. I think Georgia covers here, Clark. I am like, I just see the boa constrictor squeeze coming and look the offense for Florida did

look good against South Carolina but I think so will everybody else's yeah um I do agree I think Georgia is the pick here but I will say Florida's path to success is not unlike the one they had against Tennessee where they're able to turn disadvantageous uh box numbers into their advantage where they were able to have less guys in the box than the offense and yet consistently shut down the run game. If they can get Georgia behind the chains and make Carson Beck a true dropback passer on pure passing situations, I think they're going to be able to keep things a lot more close,

but it's easier said than done. Again, Georgia has been one of the best early down offenses not only in the sec but in the country because of how they're putting the game into beck's hands and he's been able to make great decisions but um if they are able to think things close that is how they do it they went early downs and they let their big boys up front push back the pocket just a little bit well we will see how it unfolds in jacksonville world's largest outdoor cocktail party yeah you can call it that because i love that i mean this day and age come on now i i changed it i i offered an alternative i believe i called it uh the planet's biggest

solar powered libation celebration i think we can go off the tongue as well not really but it's the same thing and And, and, you know, we just got to get a marketing team, get someone on Madison Avenue, create a campaign. And next thing you know, it can be the next fansville Andy.

That's all we need. Oh, listen, fan, the fansville characters outside the Florida Georgia game would be tremendous. Like a fan, like a fan experience pop up.

Well, no, the floor, the Florida Georgia version of those people. Oh, Oh yeah. 100%. Like, just imagine the Florida dude in his cut-off jorts and his tank top. There's probably a mullet going on.

And then the Georgia frat boy with his white hat with the bill curved so far underneath it, it's like eating itself. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, we need that. I think the fansville people do a great job anyway like we could have a whole episode on fansville but i like when when i knew they were truly our kind of people it was the commercial with the the mascot the and text the fighting platypi which i do love that and and the state cheerleader and and he said you know she says or he says you know zero like your chances of making the playoff and she says

we'll still out recruit you every year our academic standards are higher it's fantastic absolutely fantastic i don't know there's just something about me about the one where uh you know the guy with the double the double and he's doing one of those TikTok face painting. I thought that was fantastic because of course he had the O-ring light and everything. You've seen the one where he gets cuckolded in season two, right? Yeah, I've seen them all.

Yeah, he gets cuckolded. That one's dark. There was another guy who did, right? It was over the brats. Oh, gosh. She leaves for the There was another guy who did, right? It was over the Brats. Oh, gosh. Yeah. Oh, yeah. No, no. She leaves for the grill master who's making the onion volcano. And that one got me, too, because he's like, she doesn't even use charcoal.

She uses gas. She goes, I can't taste the difference. It's just so funny. Yeah. They just have completely knocked out of the park nothing against larry call pepper but uh i think i think the q rating for these rating these ads have just been triple compared to that yeah the fans actually we just did halloween hornets at universal studios a fansville themed haunted house would be amazing. Like a zombie Brian Bosworth jumping out at you.

That's what we need right there. That's what we need. If we could compare the Heisman house with Fansville in a holiday horror night, that would be the way to go. Because then you can get in like, you know, Brutus the Buckeye and a few of the mascots and the gruesome way. Can you imagine Purdue Pete walking out of a dark closet?

Just dead eyes staring through you. It's one of those, you know, the panes with the eyes moves, but Purdue Pete's eyes. It's perfect. It is perfect. All right. We move from Jacksonville, but stay in the SEC and head to Lexington Mr. Brooks where the Tennessee Vols coming off a loss to Alabama will face Kentucky coming off an open date Tennessee is a three and

a half point favorite continuing our theme of road favorites this week how we feeling um I am not feeling great if you're a big blue backer like myself, big orange historically has dominated this matchup, and Mark Stoops has not been the best exiting the bye week the last few years, and that's exactly what's happening here. So, yes, Kentucky is a home dog. It was three, three and a half, whatever it is. It's just they are overseeing probably, if Arkansas was not in the picture, the most

disappointing passing offense in the conference. And even though Tennessee themselves had some expectations with big arm, Joe Milton, they themselves at least have an identity with their run game and defense playing a little bit better last two weeks, uh, before the buy Kentucky, they've just gone sideways. And even though they shipwrecked Florida, they themselves have been marooned in terms of producing points. So, yeah, I don't feel great about this matchup whatsoever, Andy. And now that the time change is about to happen for this week,

I just feel the Cats are going to be dominated with the bright lights of ESPN shining. I was at this game last year and, and granted this was, it was a much better Tennessee game, but it was, it was the worst I had seen Kentucky play. And I don't know in,

not in the stoops era. Cause he had to take over. He had a lot of work to do when he took over for Joker Phillips, but in the latter day stoops era, it was the worst I had seen Kentucky play. What about 2020 at Alabama? Well, there's that. i mean i got a lot of nothing nothing that happened in 2020 counts though let's let's let's remember that that's true jt daniels mirage or was it because like now he's starting to turn it on at rice so yeah i mean yeah i mean granted, that is definitely an asterisk type of season, 100%. Yeah.

Last year showing from the get-go, Tennessee just had full throttle. Kentucky, they had one good offensive series. You think of Chris Rodriguez hitting a power play to the left, scoring on an explosive touchdown. But after that, all volunteers, Will Levis just, yeah, that was one of the games where people were like, okay, this guy's not it so talk talk to me about devin leary because it does seem like he's been a different person since you know 2021 he was awesome he comes into 2022 nc state's doing a heisman campaign for him he gets hurt it just feels like that that guy from 2021 we have not seen him since well i

appreciate this platform because i have been thinking about addressing this. And, you know, because you can't be as nuanced as you would like on Twitter. I'm not going to write a 20-thread breakdown on Leary or write an article on it because, again, it's a moving target. Well, the article's fine, but not a 20-thread breakdown, please. But, yeah, over the the summer when i did my impact breakdowns of like the top 30 quarterbacks returning and the top five in the conference larry was easily on my top of mind because of his accuracy his downfield accuracy and again i say this is nuance in terms of being pinpoint perfect on downfield throws so those are attempts

over 10 yards downfield you want to guess who's first in the conference is it devin larry no it's jay daniels but you know okay yeah so yeah he's right there in terms of producing the thing is he's been wasting passes uncatchables had been a problem entering this weekend second worst uncatchable pass rate overall when the conference 25 one out of four have been uncatchable pass rate overall in the conference, 25%. One out of four have been uncatchable. But it hasn't been all his fault. When you're looking at disruption rate,

so these are basically non-at fault completions, so you can think of batted balls, throwaways, drops. 13.3% of Leary's attempts have had that occur this season. In terms of drops, it's 14.8. That is insane to think that one out of seven passes is dropped. And mind you, they're not necessarily inaccurate passes. Of his 28 drops, 21 are on my quote-unquote accurate passes, perfectly placed passes.

So he has just been killed in terms of being able to find rhythm. Either it was a batted ball like that forward game is a great example where he himself just could not get out of his own way because he himself is a 6'1 guy. He's not big. He's not burly. He doesn't necessarily scan the field well. And when you're not 6'4 and you can see and raise your release point over that, you're just a little bit more prone to batted balls.

And we've seen that play out unfortunately in my impact study that was the case at NC State as well so even though he did have snappy accuracy he was able to get the ball from point a to point b as well as um any returning quarterback it's just his natural stature allowed opponents to consistently make him uncomfortable and get those situations and when you're an offense like Kentucky right now that cannot find down-to-down wins consistently and you have to lean into that explosive style of play, those biffs hurt a little bit more than if you were fairly good down-to-down

because once you find yourself on the chains, no one is worse at delivering a success rate in this conference than Devin leary and kentucky's passing offense because of not only his his spray in those instances behind the gun and trying to avoid pockets or avoid pressure but because his targets themselves cannot haul in and complete catches and so you're saying if you were playing a defense that had i don't know james pierce jr and tyler barron off the edges, that might be a problem. Yeah, so impact rate, I think I mentioned this earlier, so I'm going to redefine it.

So impact rate is a statistic that I wouldn't say I discovered or made up because newsflash, Andy, all stats are made up. But it's just a way to contextualize on a per-snap basis how often a defender can impact the ballgame. So we've heard of havoc, right? Right. The F-stop off metrics. It's just how often you can get a tackle for a loss or a batted ball.

What impact rate does it add that with defensive stops. So how often are you able to get a tackle that keeps the defense in an advantageous opportunity? So a successful play is first down. You have to gain 50%, second down 70%, third or fourth, 100%, right? You've got to convert in those situations. So in that prism, James Pierce Jr. is the number one player in college football producing impactful plays per snap.

Over one out of five on average is one of those things. Andy, that is incredibly sexy. I mean, that is a game-altering type of ball player. And in this matchup, when you're looking at Kentucky, who is below average, allowing pressure around 27, 28% of their dropbacks, it seems that James Pierce is going to have a field day on either Jeremy Flax, Cornelius Ford, or Marquise Cox, depending on what bookends Kentucky has out there. But it just seems like it's going to be a great opportunity for Tennessee

to consistently keep Kentucky in poor positions behind the chains and put Leary in positions where he might put more boo-boos on the field than he would obviously like to. More boo-boos. I think that leads me where I'm going. Those big boo-boo-boos. Yeah, I didn't like this matchup anyway. No.

I'll take Tennessee to cover, even as a road favorite. And another thing defensively, I almost mentioned, because we mentioned how quickly Tennessee started that game two years ago, or last year. Well, the wheelie switch has been a very visible aspect in Tennessee's offense. Of course, they scored their first touchdown on that wheelie switch has been a very visible aspect in Tennessee's offense. Of course, they scored their first touchdown on that wheelie switch where a linebacker was matched up with Squirrel Wright.

Of course, that is just alarm bells for a quarterback to look forward and try and target that. Well, that basically happened in the last two matches against Kentucky, each on the first drive, whether it was J.J. Weaver or Jermon Davis, matched up in space on the flat. Once our guy gets vertical, it just results in a lot of explosive plays, and I just think this is going to be a match for Joe Milton to find his footing. Not finished the week as the SEC's least explosive passer,

despite that mighty, mighty arm. I think he moves up above some other fellows, but, yeah, it's just not a good vibe around the bluegrass, in my opinion. That Missouri game really did take the wind out of the sails, literally changed the start of the second quarter. And, of course, it was really centered around that fake punt that obviously swung the game for all intents and purposes. But, yeah, it's just not been a good momentum type of performance

ever since Georgia humbled the Wildcats two weeks ago so even though tennessee yeah they're a team in crisis for a little bit i just think they have a little bit more going for them right now than kentucky so a get right for the vols get right all right we move on to what i suspect will be a defensive battle duke at louis Louisville Louisville four and a half point favorite Riley Leonard tried so hard to get back in the four state game yeah man he was making a case god bless Mike Elko for caring enough about his player to not put him in to have his his foot fall off at the ankle because it would and yeah like Leonard is that type of competitor but like while he is a fantastic athlete in the open field he's still improving developing as just operating straight from the

pocket passing the ball and that's just not his strength so you don't really want him at like 70 60 so you know I don't really think we're going to see him this weekend against Louisville but the thing is you know Jake Plummer might keep them in the game because he's a fairly combustible quarterback. I use that word very literally, where he can give you the explosive play and he can also give you that backbreaking decision that gives the defense, you know, a feel flipping opportunity or even, you know, a touchdown of their self. So he is top 20 in adjusted EPA per attempt,

which is what you like to see. And Jordan, their running back, he himself is a great big play machine. It's just, yeah, I'm just a little questionable because of how Mike Elko has that defense playing. It's very, very stifling. And even though we did see Florida State pull away at the end, I just don't think Louisville has the amount of weapons at their disposal they still have a decent amount but I just think you know Jordan Travis way more consistent than Plummer and I just think yeah

even though I like Louisville to win I think yeah the Blue Devils it's a really fun cover here for them coming on the road even though yeah easily they're they had the wind out of their sails after you know getting themselves up for florida state and even though they failed to beat florida state the first time ever was that was that they've never beaten florida state they've never beaten florida state nope so yeah like i don't think that they're gonna let that derail them that much because yeah like it's an expected loss i mean but i think the run game is able to get going a little bit more against louisville than it was against florida state and that does keep them a close enough and again because how able to get going a little bit more against Louisville than it was against Florida state. And that does keep them a close enough. And again,

because how plumber has been a little bit inconsistent, he provides them opportunities. I'll give you a, I'm gonna give you an over under here. Okay. How many carries do you think? Jowar Jordan has had in the past two games over under 70. It would be over.

Yes. Cause that's 73 carries in the past two games. He had 40 against Notre Dame for 185 yards. He had 33 against pit for only 80 yards. And folks are you hearing that is not a siren. That is the wrinkling of a bell cow going on in the background. Ding, ding ding ding but i don't want to do that against this defense i don't want to rely on that against this defense because this defense is going to eat me alive if i try that very much i mean like very much of are a core tenant to what louisville likes to do they definitely like the zone, run away from all those bodies in the middle of the field.

But still, like you said, 35 carries over the last two games on average. That's just not sustainable in this day and age. I mean, he's not necessarily a burly guy. He's on the leaner side. Again, outside zone, you want more like a quick, swifty type of guy more than somebody who's 220 pounds. Also, Duke's defense not built to stuff you up the middle, built to spread out and run you down, which, again, I don't like that.

I don't like that strategy. Jamari Thrash, his per catch average has been held down basically as they've played better athletes. And so that's another one i worry i just feel like the things that louisville does well will be stifled by this particular defense but i don't know how well duke's gonna score i you know the the number the total is 47 and a half i take the under on this one sure i'd say duke covers though i i got faith in duke to cover because i I think they've had to play some very good defenses of late.

We're looking at Duke through the prism of having to play against Florida State's defense and Notre Dame's defense. What does that look like? Well, Louisville's defense ain't those. This should be a chance for Duke to get right, even with a backup quarterback in. I will take the Blue Devils yeah come on over you know um being a Kentucky alum uh neither of those two teams necessarily excite me uh but I'll take the Blue Devils there for sure I can't I

can't take the the birds with teeth how did that bird grow teeth? Anyway. Well, you've seen this always sunny. Sometimes you just have to dream it. If you can dream it, you can do it. Boy, there was a weird time for mascots in your Commonwealth with,

with Louisville, the bird having the, the Cardinal having the teeth and what was going on with the tongue of, of that wildcat for a year. So I have that on a, like, like, you know, like a lawn flag or whatever you probably have. I still have a version of that

with the special tongue. Does everybody remember the little mermaid? It was Aladdin. The original version of Aladdin. It had a little Easter egg in it where the sand blows away and it says sex. Look at a.

Mid to late 90s. I would say 94 to 97. Yeah. So basically. Basically when the hoops team was wearing those denim shirts. The blue denim uniforms. Late Richard Dino era Kentucky basketball. Yeah.

Yeah. So the cat. His tongue. Well. Somebody had some fun with that one. Yes. That's, that's all we can say, but it looks like a different organ. Not necessarily. Yeah. Not, not something on your mouth. I wasn't going to say that. And you walked right into it.

Well, I mean, I am a little bit of a man of mystery, but in this case, I think we should just let the fans, you know. The tongue looks like a penis. Put to the bush. There you go. We've danced around it enough. All right. Let us go west, young man. Oregon at Utah.

Yet another road favorite. Five and a half point favorite, the Ducks, going to Rice Eccles Stadium, one of the toughest places in the Pac-12, if not the country to play. The must, the mighty Utah student section will be rocking. Bryson Barnes, their walk on God. But can Bo Nix? This is an elimination game.

It is. I love how quickly things can change in college football. Of course, this is, yeah, it's now the de facto Pac-12 championship, in my opinion, the two best teams in the conference. Even though, yes, Washington is still out there at large, but after their very shaky performance, you can't necessarily say that they're going to finish unscathed. But Kyle Winningham, fantastic.

We just found out Cam Rising, Brent Keith, they're going to be shut down the rest of the year. It just seems irrelevant at this point because of how they're playing so well. So Barnes, he did take a hit near the end of that game, and I don't know if he's going to be a little bit banged up entering this weekend, but it was interesting to me that after that late hit where he took that little bit of a smack, he did not have a catchable pass on a throwaway and a very key one,

but his legs put them in position for that oh he ran right to the usc defense to set up that field goal i mean that's not saying much but you know he still had to do it he still had to do it but yeah like and how they got two-way players going on like they just the only vodka they just have a mentality so like very much like the world's largest outdoor cocktail party, I think it's going to come down to who can tackle better in space. So why do I say that? Because like Graham Mertz, Bo Nix has been a little bit of a conservative

operating quarterback. He's throwing passes really close to the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target this year is under seven yards, average about eight and a half, nine yards. So clearly below um the national mean and that's putting a lot of heavy lifting into those receivers now troy franklin says uh johnson they're awfully very great pass catchers in their own right but the way utah is playing they are easily a home dog that i cannot ignore at five and a half. I think they're going to be an easy bet in my opinion this week.

And even though, yeah, Bo Nix has been playing a lot better in terms of decision-maker, in terms of prudence. He himself can find explosive plays. It's just that down-to-down operation because of how it is so reliant on the yak stuff. I think because of how Utah tackles better and gets off the field better, that they're going to be able to come away, not only with a cover here, Andy, but a money line win.

Straight up. Ooh, very nice. So here's why I'm not ready to go there yet. Okay. Talk me off that ledge. Talk down my optimism here. Utah went to Corvallis, a place where – what do they have in Corvallis?

People who are really good on the line of scrimmage. I think it said like Potato Hills and stuff. That too. And good Pino. Well, in Corvallis and Eugene. The Willamette Valley is fantastic. But they

shut this offense down. And now granted, Utah was kind of trying to figure itself out at the time. Yeah, yeah. But with the level of athlete that Oregon has on the D-line, it is something that Utah has not seen. They saw one. They saw Bear Alexander. Well, Solomon Bird is no pushover either, Andy.

That's true. That's true that's true i mean really outside of the linebacker but alex grinch was was coordinating that defense that is true he was he was putting him in the wrong spot he was sending him left in the and they were running right too often they were slanting instead of just out-athleting although you're not really gonna out-athlete utah and when you're getting a power peck from Bear Alexander at the end, there's really not much schematics can do at that point. Right. So that's my concern. My concern is when Utah faces a defense that has really,

really good athletes who are put in the correct places, are they good enough to operate? Are they good enough to operate are they good enough to score because we've seen it against other two but like ucla shut them down too remember seven of utah's points in the ucla game seven of utah's 14 points were pick six but that was also like a midweek game and like take it for what it's worth again also earlier in the season trying to figure themselves out i mean a lot of our job is trying to hit a moving target and utah is definitely accentuating that um to they're evolving yes to say the least yeah they're they're in now phase three charizard almost i would say um in terms of their did not know we were going into pokemon

uh i i think it would be charmander charm Charmander, Charmeleon, and Charizard. Yes, my son was big into Pokemon. I figured that would be the best allegory there to use for the phases. I don't know. Could it be the nesting jaw? I don't know. No. Because I was trying to figure that out on the fly.

But still, yeah, because we're trying to figure out who they are. I just think they're just finding a lot of pieces. But at the same time, that also goes to their favor because opponents-wise, you have to prepare for that. What are we going to see? What's there to expect? I just think that element of surprise and playing at home, even though, yeah, Dan Lanning basically trying to replicate that style of defense

that Kirby Smart is having, playing that too high, creeper, pressure type of stuff, confused and rally with excellent technique and athleticism, all comes into cards. I just think sometimes 12 personnel under center, and you can find wins that way and staying ahead of the chains. I think Utah is able to do that. But yeah, I would, I mean, Oregon's the better team for a reason. They are favored for a reason. It's just, I just like the way Utah has been playing of us late and they're just really tough for me to pass up here. I am going to take Oregon also because i don't like us being on the same side of everything we can't we can't just yeah we're gonna have some disagreements we got

it yeah we got it every once in a while clash but i i probably have been more faithful to oregon than i needed to be but i also think like the oregon washington game i think there's some randomness involved there there was only one fourth down decision that bothered me I thought I think he kicked the field goal at the end of the half but like I loved going for it on fourth and and two I think it was more like the play call and I bless bless the narrative gods because now we're evolving should they go for it on fourth down to two should they have called that play on the fourth down? So, yes, we are evolving as not only on-field but off-field analysts as well.

So I do like that. But, yeah, just the rollouts in that. Houston, they also fell running a very similar thing. Donovan Smith on the roll. He just could not place that pass perfectly. It's behind receiver. Ball game. Texas escapes. You also – yeah, when you're rolling to one side of the field, the roll he just could not place that pass perfectly it's behind receiver ball game texas

escapes you also yeah when you're rolling to one side of the field you are limiting what you can do in the pass game you can throw to you can throw in that direction you can't throw in the other direction you can't turn and run in the other direction or you're going to get tackled so yeah i i'm with you i will take oregon perhaps Perhaps Will Stein has learned his lesson after that play call, and if he finds himself in a similar situation, Bucky Irving gets the ball. I was about to say, if Bucky Irving gets loose, you may not even have to worry about fourth downs in this game.

Because, again, I think over the last two years, he averages 7.4 yards per touch. It's most of anybody over that span. So, yeah, he is a special playmaker in his own right. And if he can find lanes, to your point, yeah, Oregon should definitely cover here. But I just think they, I just think Kyle Whittenham mucks it up and they just keep it close and ultimately win.

So we stay out in the Pac-12. Yeah, we had to do a Coach Prime pick. Coach Prime and the Buffaloes headed to the rose bowl to play ucla ucla is a 17 and a half point favorite clark yeah bruins have been really good this year they are uh two losses but utah and oregon state both on the road like this is interesting because that is a huge number. Who's going to be quarterback? I mean, Dante Moore, he lost his job, it looks like,

because, again, in those losses, he was giving opponents extra possessions. And that's usually not a good recipe for success, even if you are an offensive mastermind like Chip Kelly here. So 17 points. I do think that the offense does find wins because look, even with Travis Hunter, Colorado's defense, they're in the triple digits in EPA per run and EPA per pass. So I think it's going to be a matter of pick your poison for Mr. Kelly and how to attack this defense. And even though Shadur Sanders, he does have some wins with some explosiveness. He's not necessarily the most consistent quarterback. Because of that offensive line, it is, again, undersized.

That has been a consistent narrative. And now they are in the meter of their schedule. And UCLA, I do think they have the size to give them problems. I think it's just going to be an easy walk-away win for the Bruins here at home. I think Carson Steele has another multi-touchdown game. I think he averages over four yards after contact. Love his running style, that bruising bulldog running style of his. But, yeah, I just don't think there's going to be enough firepower

for the Buffs to keep it close even after that bye week to get them right. So, Ethan Garber's got to start last week. Yeah. 20 of 28 against Stanford for 240 yards. But Stanford. No picks. But Stanford. True. True 240 yards. But Stanford. No picks. But Stanford. True.

True. But the thing about it is Stanford was actually holding Carson Steele to well below his average. He only averaged 3.8 yards a carry. But UCLA will keep running it at you. And in different ways. Yeah. And in different ways.

Yeah. TJ Harden wound up with 55 yards on 12 carries and garbers had 51 yards on eighth carry so that they have a lot of ways to beat you and that's that's what concerns me for colorado's defense like and i think they're gonna keep they're gonna keep chucking try to score try to keep up which probably leads to some mistakes probably leads to some turnovers so yeah i'm going to take ucla to cover here but i'll be curious you know this is a 7 30 p.m eastern time abc game coach prime the shines off though i think everybody who really follows college football is still very impressed with

the job that he's done of four, four wins cashes your, your season total ticket because it was three and a half. The question is, can they, can they make a bowl game now? And they should have beaten Stanford. Now they got to win two,

their last ones. And I don't see two wins on it, but I am curious to see what happens. I just wonder, will the, the group of fans that was coming to watch Coach Prime, the 10 million people who watched Colorado, Colorado State, do they have that same energy now?

Or have they moved on to Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce? Let's hope they did not take the advice that Dabo Sweeney was perhaps insinuating. Get off the bandwagon. Yeah. Coach Prime needs to keep that bandwagon as full as possible, propel them not only through this offseason, but the next several as they try and reposition themselves in a new Big 12. So, yeah, obviously you want to finish the year strong,

but it's all about finding momentum, great silver linings to carry over, and this is absolutely a great opportunity to do so because like you said it's not gonna be too great finding wins down the stretch but i just think yeah ucla they're just too big and strong for colorado people close here yeah in these styles make fights version of picking like this is colorado oregon was a terrible matchup for colorado this feels like a terrible matchup for colorado this feels like a terrible matchup for colorado there's some other teams like colorado usc when they played you felt like okay colorado can score on them and and we've kind of found out since usc is a little bit

of a soft team so when you are a little bit of a thunk it soft team when you're undersized you can keep a little bit close and play things a little bit outside the perimeter and not between the bookends as much like you would if you were a little bit brawnier. UCLA will send a running back who looks like Thor and has a pet alligator. I couldn't remember if he had a pet Viper or a pet alligator, but it's an alligator and his name is Crocky J and he's a, he's at the family home in in greenwood indiana

which is a very beautiful suburb of indianapolis which like i live in florida we can walk outside and see alligators pretty much any time i can't imagine wanting to keep one as a pet who in indiana decides i want an alligator well and for folks of you who might be landlocked in the South, this time of year, the Midwest, the region I live in, it's gray. Every day from 8 a.m. until the sun goes down, there's not a whole lot of sun. Of course, we know cold-blooded reptiles, they have to get some sun and they have to get some melatonin.

It's all part of their metabolism. And so I just don't see how that works out especially year round maybe in the summer but like this time of year i just i don't see how that long distance relationship works that's clark brooks everybody you can find him on twitter at reptile physiology cat oh wait no sec stat cat sorry clark this has been a pleasure this was a joy i cannot wait to see how wrong I am on these and how right you are on these. But it's, because I've intentionally tried to pick people

who comment things from different ways. So you're our second very deep analytics guy to do this. Parker Fleming, Stats of War was the first one. Dr. Parker Fleming, give him some respect. He earned that doctorate recently. Put some respect on his name. For sure. I mean, in terms of visualizing statistics,

he's changed the games with his weekly breakouts. I mean, cannot speak highly of Dr. Parker Fleming enough. He's a great dude both on and off the web. Yeah, for sure. Well, I've loved it because I think it helps for folks who are kind of scared of the analytics to see that you guys are fun too. Like there's no reason that you need to be scared of EPA. Exactly.

Just think of it as a different way to talk about yards. It's just yards in context. That's essentially what they are. Ignore the garbage book scary names if you just understand what they are i mean i can't tell i mean i i don't have a time machine but i would imagine the first time someone in baseball did like whip or one of those advanced statistics that it took a little bit of a learning curve for people to catch up but now it's all part of the vernacular it's all part of the you know the common fan experience in that sport maybe in 15 to 20 years that would be the case for football

and things like ep EPA and depth adjusted accuracy and havoc rate and impact rate and all those, all the fun stuff that we track. Well, havoc rate is just a great name. See, I'm all about the branding. I think as long as you brand it,

well, people will come and havoc rate is the best branded advanced statistic there is. Well, impact rate is now like the next step. So not only is it including the f-step off metric that you would like so tackles for a loss pressures batted balls interceptions anything that a defense can do to mess up an offense it's also including defensive

stops so it's how often you're getting a tackle where the where the offense does not have a statistical successful play so that would be success rate 50 of yards again on first down 70 on second down 100 on the later down so again it's putting a little bit more context and who can absolutely impact the game on a per snap basis based on tackling deflections pressuring other people into mistakes just trying to provide a little bit more context because classic box score doesn't do a good job of that andy unfortunately no especially not in football and i get a good chuckle because i'm sure you're like me you'll say something you'll tweet something out and then eventually people will start fighting one another in their in your mentions and often they're fighting about

statistical things yours are probably fighting about more advanced stats. Or what an interesting pass rate is. Or what an interesting pass rate is. Mine are occasionally fighting about total offense and total defense still. Yeah, kind of stats. Come on. Those don't mean anything. They don't mean anything. They need context.

So it's – but it is fun. And listen, nobody affects the game like you. Clark Brooks, thank you so much. And it was a pleasure as always. Thank you to Clark Brooks for all those picks and slipping in a Pokemon reference. Did not see that coming. On Tuesday's show, Georgia Center's Cedric Van Praan

as the Bulldogs get ready to play florida in jacksonville huge rivalry game we'll talk to the man in the middle of georgia's offensive line talk to you tomorrow