Andy & Ari On3 - Week one college football picks against the spread: Miami or Florida? Notre Dame or Texas A&M?

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

Welcome to Andy Staples On3, presented by Wendy’s! Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker,try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. Thank you to Gametime for sponsoring today's episode! Planning your college football travel for this season? Gametime has tickets to every game. (And every concert and comedy show.) Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly.(0:00-0:45) Presented by Wendy's(0:46-13:20) Recapping Florida State vs Georgia Tech(13:21-14:29) Gametime Ad(14:30-21:21) Connor Stalions Case Update(21:22-23:06) PrizePicks(23:06-26:46) North Dakota State at Colorado(26:47-33:49) North Carolina at Minnesota(33:50-38:06) Penn State at West Virginia(38:07-45:24) Clemson vs Georgia in Atlanta(45:25-48:58) Illinois State at Iowa (48:59-56:47) Miami at Florida(56:48-1:04:03) Notre Dame at Texas A&M(1:04:00-1:12:18) LSU vs USC in Las Vegas(1:12:19-1:14:31) Conclusion, See you tomorrow! It’s game week! That means it’s time to make some BOLD predictions. On3’s Jesse Simonton joins Andy to pick the best week one games. But first, Andy and Jesse discuss Georgia Tech’s walkoff win against Florida State in Dublin. Plus, Michigan has received its NCAA notice of allegations in the Connor Stalions case (and the Stalions doc drops Tuesday on Netflix!) Now it’s time to pick the games. Are you going to follow or fade Andy on: North Dakota State (+9.5) at Colorado (Total: 58.5) North Carolina (-1.5) at Minnesota (Total: 50.5) Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia (Total: 51.5) Clemson (+13.5) at Georgia (Total: 49.5) Illinois State (+23.5) at Iowa (Total: 41.5) Miami (-2.5) at Florida (Total: 54.5) Notre Dame (+2.5) at Texas A&M (Total: 46.5) LSU (-4.5) vs. USC (Total: 63.5) Want to watch the show instead? Join us LIVE on YouTube, M-F, at 8 am et! https://youtube.com/live/JBGKRgqvsfQHost: Andy StaplesGuest: Jesse SimontonProducer: River Bailey

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Pick a flavor, grab some extra napkins, and prepare to nug like you've never nugged before. For a whole new way to nug, it's got to be Wendy's at Participating Wendy's. Welcome to Andy Staples on three. It is game week. We already have results in the book. Some pretty surprising ones at that. We got news. We got picks today against the spread for week one. It's all happening. It's all happening. It is game week. It is a very exciting time. I got to tell you, though, the schedule changes because it's game week. So there is no show on Friday. Because there is a show on Saturday night to recap all the games. So Monday through Thursday in the morning, Saturday night to recap all the games. So Monday through Thursday in the morning,

Saturday night. So adjust your clocks and calendars accordingly. I know we're all going to be watching the games anyway. So when the games end, let's say roughly about, oh, I don't know, midnight and one second. That's when you should tune in. I'll just tell you, midnight and one second. That's when you should tune in.

I'll just tell you, midnight and one second. Right as Saturday turns to Sunday. That's when you need to tune in this week. Midnight and one second. Just remember that. Just remember that. All right. We got a special guest today.

On three is Jesse Simonson joins me. He's going to help me pick games. Jesse, we have, we have much to discuss from the weekend, Florida state falls to Georgia tech in Dublin on a walk-off field goal. The yellow jackets whip the Seminoles on the line of scrimmage, double digit underdogs coming away with the win.

And everything we said for nine months means nothing i mean isn't that the biggest lesson is that we really don't know anything i mean you can have theories you can have guesstimations you can have you know your our thoughts and our you know premonitions but in the end we got to actually see some football until we, you know, to know what these teams truly are. Now, I think part of the problem with Florida State is that all the noise coming out of Tallahassee was that Mike Norvell was pretty confident in his team. Now, was that hubris? Was that arrogance? You know, DJU kind of was DJU. He was who he's always been, but there's a ceiling on that, and they went into a game that they thought they could win a rock fight, and instead, you know, it was Brent Keyes team just chucking the stones right

back at them. Yeah. And it was, it was Brent Keyes offensive line, dominating Florida State's defensive line up front. And this is supposed to be a pretty good Florida State defensive line. And look, if you talk to NFL scouts, we had Jim Nagy on, he's talked about how good some of those guys can be at the next level but he said this last week and i'm not sure how much people were paying attention he said they're not as deep as they were last year on the d-line which means as the game goes on you're gonna have big guys being tired which is what you saw with daryl Jackson and what you saw you know on the interior Josh Farmer like those guys were playing a lot of snaps like last year Braden Fisk did not have to play as many snaps as Daryl Jackson and Josh Farmer had to play on Saturday and when you're

playing it's an offensive line that is playing really well like Georgia Tech's was that is going to wear on you and and it it showed in the game Jesse because you know I go back to Florida State's best offensive drive actually was when they converted those two fourth downs they had no choice but to go for those fourth downs because that was Mike Norvell saying I don't trust my defense to not let Georgia Tech just grind off eight minutes o'clock yeah I think I mean there was only seven possessions for each team in this game. So this was, you know, it was, it was, again, I mean, it was a rock fight game and Florida state came up, you know, empty.

Another guy that you didn't mention on the defensive line, but to just kind of put an exclamation point on your point, Marvin Jones Jr. I mean, he's a guy that was playing backup snaps at Georgia last year. There's a lot of buzz about him in Florida State's camp, but he looked gassed as well. He had a chance to sack Haynes King on one big play

and King made a hell of a spin move out and seed down the field for a big first down on Tech's go-ahead touchdown drive there. But Florida State is going to have to regroup quickly because there's not a lot of time to do kind of a deep-dive autopsy

on what the offense could do because we're talking about the defensive line. The offensive line boasts a couple all-ACC preseason guys, and they certainly got pushed around. They gave up seven tackles for loss dju again he just refuses to kind of throw the ball over the middle that's not that's something we've seen now uh frankly for you know three four years um but they're gonna have to come up with some answers quickly because obviously they play boston college the game against a memphis team that's going to be tricky um and if you still want to win the ACC,

you got some big boys against Clemson, Miami left on the schedule there. Yeah, that's the thing. It gets dark pretty quick if we're assuming that Georgia Tech is an average team. I don't know that Georgia Tech is an average team, though. This, I think, tells you that Georgia Tech can play with anybody on that schedule. It is the toughest ACC schedule. It's the toughest ACC in-conference schedule. It's also the toughest ACC out-of-conference schedule because of Notre Dame and Georgia.

But here's the thing. So I have a new bracketology projection at On3 that came out this morning, Jesse. And we weren't going to do one this week but then this this game happened plus you had the espn halftime show incorrectly explaining how the seating process works so it was like pretty brilliant we've got brilliant we've got to explain this but so i actually put georgia tech in as the acc champ for a couple reasons one a little bit of a cop-out hey I'm not sure to if I want to pick Miami or NC State or Virginia Tech or or Louisville or who else but also because here's the scenario like Georgia Tech doesn't have to beat my doesn't have to beat Georgia and Notre Dame to make the playoff like they could go seven and one in ACC play, lose to Notre Dame and Georgia,

win the ACC championship game. And they're still in the playoff. No, you talk about a team coming out of nowhere. That would be, that sure would be something that they had a preseason went total of, I think five and a half or four and a half. And it was because of that schedule.

Did you see that stat, Andy, that was going around? That Brent Key now has more wins over a ranked team than Mike Norvell? Yeah, yeah. And he's been the head coach for basically half of an interim season, a full season, and one game. I mean, he's 5-0 against, you know, ranked ACC teams. With the way Tech's recruiting, I mean, this was – you talk about putting a cherry on top of a nice month.

You land the five-star. You have, like, your highest-ranked recruiting class in the top 20 in well over a decade. And then you just go, you know go in Dublin and down Florida State. I mean, the bees are feeling pretty good right now. So they're an interesting case too because I was talking to our friends at VolQuest, Brent Hubbs and Austin Price on their show on Sunday night, and Brent made the point that when Georgia tech has a defined identity,

they are a problem. And, you know, you go back to Paul Johnson, it was a very different identity and people didn't like the option, but the option made them tough to deal with this Brent key run the ball, like this, we're going to be tough on both lines of scrimmage. Like that's the, that's a brand that travels. And it's so interesting because Jeff Collins, who we're going to be tough on both lines of scrimmage. Like that's the, that's a brand that travels. And it's so interesting because Jeff Collins, who we're going to talk about in a few minutes, when we, when we picked the North Carolina, Minnesota game, but Jeff Collins came in wanting to brand Georgia tech,

but it was all this exterior stuff, the waffle house, all that. Like brick key has branded Georgia tech. He's created a brand for Georgia tech. It's just an, an on-field brand. No, that when the irony is too, they're basically just, they're running the option just out of the shotgun. a brand for Georgia Tech. It's just an on-field brand.

Well, the irony is, too, they're basically just running the option just out of the shotgun. I mean, that's the funniest thing. I mean, Haynes King can throw it, but he only attempted 16 passes. But Buster Faulkner, the offensive coordinator there, has an air raid background, but he spent several years on Georgia's staff under Todd Munkin, and they kind of were kind of coming up with some, you know, crazy motion runs, and now he's taken that and just dialed it up. He's just cranked up the dial. And so the way they kind of move not only the pocket,

but just kind of move all these guys around, I mean, they're going to be tough. They got a bunch of little jitterbugs out there. I don't know if they got a receiver or anything. It's over 5'9", but they all can, you know, they're going to be tough, and they've got a bunch of little jitterbugs out there. I don't know if they've got a receiver or anything that's over 5'9", but they all can – they're slippery, they're fast, and Florida State found out the hard way. So if you love football and the X's and O's part of it and you're not subscribed to Dan Casey's daily email – so Dan Casey's a coach. He's on Twitter. He's on Instagram.

You should be following him on both. It's really fun because he's always posting really, really cool plays that he finds. And it could be like a college play from the 50s or an NFL play he saw last weekend or some high school play that somebody sent him. It's all this cool stuff, but he has a one play a day email. Today's one play a day email was the gh counter that georgia tech was running against florida state and then what it means what gh counter means is you pull the backside guard so the run if the if you're running right which would be you hand off to the back on the right side he kind of acts like he's going to run left and then scoots right so you're running right the left guard pulls you have your h back tight end kind of guy he does a little short motion while he's on the left side

and then comes flying around the corner to crush the end guy or that last guy on the line of scrimmage. And it is a great play, very well designed. They have the athletes to run it, which is another prerequisite that it's not always so easy. But it's fun to watch. So yeah, I'm excited to see what happens to Georgia tech, Florida state, as you mentioned, they play Boston college on labor day. They cannot go. Oh, and two in the ACC,

like they better get that figured out. And, and DJU, you mentioned like DJ use DJU. And I, you know, I don't know if i saw it as much when he was at oregon state because that oregon state offense defenses were so scared of what they do running the ball they weren't really trying to heat up dju as much but when he gets blitzed he just it's not he does not move that fast and it's interesting because when he's when he takes off and runs with the ball, he can move pretty well. But when he's moving laterally within the pocket, he just does not move as fast as some of these other guys.

Well, it's not like that. He's just, he's not decisive in his decisions. So it's, it's, it's, I think it's like a slow, you know, um, pocket awareness. And then it just, he just, he, he just, it's just, it's frustrating to watch. I mean, it's kind of remarkable still to think about what he showed against Notre

Dame as a freshman five years ago now. And he has looked nothing like that. I mean, he just, he certainly wasn't aided, you know, Florida state isn't exactly, it's clear that they're not flush with receiver talent.

They missed hiking Williams. I think Malik Benson's okay. You know, Florida State isn't exactly – it's clear that they're not flush with receiver talent. They missed Hakeem Williams, I think. Malik Benson's okay. You know, but – You've got to try to throw it to them, and they didn't even try to throw it to them until the very end of the second quarter. And then they did dial up two shot plays, and DJ, you missed them. You threw one short, and you threw one, you know, over the guy's head. And both of those might have been walk-in touchdowns but that that's that's gonna be the margins Florida State's playing with all year because if they had a better option behind DJ you somebody else would

be playing yeah well I will see I mean because there's politics to it now when you do the big NIL deal but for sure Rockland's sitting there and there were a lot of people if you talk to them this time last year when jordan travis was still healthy and obviously finishing his final year who thought brock glenn would be the successor to jordan travis so it's it still might be still might be the case we'll find out we gotta talk a little bit more news before we pick some games but first i gotta to talk about game time. Do you want to go to some of these games that we're about to talk about? We're going to talk about Florida, Miami, and the Swamp.

We're going to talk about Notre Dame and Texas A&M at Kyle Field, Georgia and Clemson in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, LSU-USC in Vegas. These games all happening. They're all sold out, but you can still get tickets on game time. Use the code staples for $20 off your first purchase. It's so easy. You can look exactly at where your seat will be. Know exactly what it's going to look like. Know you are getting that seat. Know you have ease of transferring between yourself and your friends. Download the GameTime app.

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Terms apply. Last-minute tickets. Lowest prices guaranteed. Now, Michigan's playing Fresno State. That's not going to be one of the games probably that we talk about this week unless they're not very good, but we still are talking about Michigan last year because they have received the notice of allegations from the NCAA regarding the Connor Stallion's case. And this is not going to get resolved this season, Jesse. As you know, the NCAA wheels of justice turn slowly. So Michigan will have 90 days to respond.

There'll be 30 more days to respond to that. And they got to set a hearing. So this is all going to happen next season but it that i love that the noa gets dropped on them two days before the connor stallions documentary drops on netflix so what are our thoughts on that i mean i because i kind of think that this doc this documentary is going to be a nothing burger maybe i'm going to be wrong i just the way the way the way the florida one played out last year i just i'm skeptical but if we it will be hilarious if it actually a is good and b there's like oh connor stallions is on camera he's like hell yeah that was me in central

michigan here on the sideline you know if he's like puffing his chest out that that would be uh classic i'm just skeptical. Obviously, it drops on Tuesday. The timing of this is certainly eye-opening. Michigan fans continue to be apoplectic that this is even a storyline. But hey, college football is all about rivals just continuing to throw mud at rivals. And so that's the beauty of it. Well, and so the draft copy that ESPN obtained a few weeks ago,

it seems to be fairly similar to the one that landed. Now, everybody's going to say, oh, this is all Connor. It's not all Connor Stallions. It's actually, there's 11 allegations in it. Two of them involve Connor Stallions. And then everything else is, they're like recruiting stuff and other things. So I don't know exactly how this is all going to shake out. And we won't know for a while.

But the Connor Stallions documentary, I'm with you because this series is untold series. It's, it's been a lot of, if you actually follow the sport, it's stuff you already knew. Uh, the, the, the stuff I've seen on the Steve, I haven't seen the Steve McNair documentary yet, but it's one of those things where I think if you were following that case and you followed Steve McNair's NFL career, you didn't learn much. If you didn't know anything about it, which is most of the audience that they're trying to reach, you're like, wow, what a story. I think that's what's going to happen here. Now, everybody who's involved with this is signed an NDA and they've not really made it available to see early. All all you got are these little whispers.

And the only little juicy whisper I heard, and I'm not sure if I believe this, is that he's going to name people who are doing the same thing for other programs. That would be spicy. That would be spicy because I'm with you. I mean, the Florida one in particular, I think, you know, it should have been dubbed, you know, redubbed, told, you know,

the story that you've heard before because there was not – I mean, they could have read all your news clippings as a beat writer, you know, when you were at the Tampa Bay Times back then covering the Gators. Tampa Tribune, baby. Don't know. That was a competition. Tampa Tribune. May the Tampa Trib Times back then covering the Gators. Tampa Tribune, baby. Don't know. That was a competition. Tampa Tribune. May the Tampa Tribune rest in peace.

All that stuff would have been in the news already. So the Manziel one was pretty good, but I'm with you. I'm skeptical. Well, I do want to see it because I want to hear him. I've only heard him talk a couple times. Like, we've read so much about this guy, but there's so little available video, interview footage. Like, I just want to get a sense of the person.

So that part I'm kind of interested in seeing. That, and I mean, does he actually, you know, how transparent is he about, which is funny. We're talking about stealing signs, transparent, transparent. Is he, how transparent is he about, you know, his, his manifesto and this whole deal that he did where he basically from the jump from years ago, you know, wrote this huge thing about how he wanted to ultimately become the head coach at Michigan.

I would be fascinated to hear him talk about that if he actually does lean in. I think he's going to say I was a lone wolf. I didn't tell the coaches anything I was doing. I don't think he's going to do anything to hurt Michigan, at least not intentionally. That would be my guess because he's he's now a beloved cult figure there he doesn't want to lose that part of it the schadenfreude though if he does if he does start naming some folks that's that well especially if they left it in it would probably mean they could prove that it's true and then

because if i'm whatever production company's making this for netflix and he starts naming people i'm like listen i'm not putting that in the thing unless we know that's true because i'm gonna get sued so we'll find out exactly how that goes but yeah if he can say that everybody else was doing this which something michigan fans have been saying all along, it doesn't matter because you got caught. And being the one who's dumb enough to get caught is still a thing. But it's definitely interesting and juicy. I can't believe Central Michigan still hasn't...

It's like we can neither confirm nor deny that that was counter-ion i that that in in and of itself just is still hilarious it's so we just have this grainy shot that looks like it was from like the zapruder film yes like we're like trying to figure out you know who's on who's on the grassy knoll here? And their program still can't say, yay or nay, that was counter stallions. It's amazing. Truly amazing. So we'll find out more. Well, look, this thing drops on Tuesday,

so we'll get a review on the show. I will give everybody a review on the show. I'll watch it as soon as humanly possible, and we will definitely talk about it. Goat Dog, let's talk about Montana State coming back against New Mexico. It was a great game. Yes, that's the best. Now, the game was in Albuquerque, but best thing has come out of Bozeman since the last time they filmed an episode of Yellowstone.

So that was a fun game. We got a lot of fun games coming up, Jesse, though. Before we talk about the week one games, before we pick these week one games, I got to tell everybody about PrizePix, most fun daily fantasy game in America. Right now, if you use the code STAPLES, play $5, you get $50 instantly to play.

And there's already picks on the board for week one. That's right. For Thursday night games. Remember Colorado is playing North Dakota state on Thursday night. Minnesota is playing North Carolina on Thursday night. We're about to talk about those games. What do you think Shador Sanders is going to do? What do you think? Max Brosmer, the bro, you heard him on this show, former New Hampshire quarterback, now starting for Minnesota against North Carolina. Omarion Hampton, one of the best returning running backs that nobody's talking about. He's going to be playing for North Carolina in that game. North Carolina with a revamped defense.

Does that change how much Max Brosmer can throw for? Meanwhile, you've got Colorado and North Dakota State. You had Dion at Big 12 Media Days talking about how disciplined that defense is at North Dakota State, how good Colorado has to be to win this game because this is one of the programs that's not going to come in scared of an FBS team. Shador Sanders, how's he going to do in a first game behind a revamped offensive line that they think is going to be better? Travis Hunter, how many snaps does he play on each side of the ball? How does he do as a receiver? Jimmy Horn, all of it available on PrizePix. Those players I just mentioned on the board right now, play $5, get 50 instantly with the code STAPLES right jesse we got to pick some games we will start off

with that north dakota state colorado game colorado's nine and a half point favorite the total on this thing is 58 and a half dion at big 12 media days did the correct thing of hey this is a game i wish my ad had never scheduled i don't know why we're playing this team these guys are well coached that said matt intz the coach for north dakota state last year is now the co-dc well kind of assistant dc because dan lenz the dc but at the linebackers coach at USC, basically North Dakota state has had turnover that David Braun, who's the current head coach at Northwestern was the DC at North Dakota state two years ago.

Like they're not necessarily the superpower they once were South Dakota state has kind of taken that spot in the FCS, but North Dakota state is still one of the best teams in the FCS. Yeah, I think, I believe they're still ranked, uh, one or two in the preseason, the FCS preseason bowl this year. Uh, but you know what? Uh, I don't know if I believe in, in Colorado for the full season. I certainly do not believe in Deon Sanders long-term future, uh, in Boulder there, but I do believe they can cover the nine and a half on Thursday night. I think partly here, Andy, we're going to find out real quickly

if they have shored up those offensive and defensive lines, specifically defensively. You bring in Dion Hayes, you bring in B.J. Green, some of these guys. I think depth later in the season for Colorado could come into question, much like we saw last year. But this is going to be the best team they have to start. I mean, they're fresh. You brought in all these transfers.

On the flip side, while North Dakota State can run the hell out of the ball, I think they had 47 rushing touchdowns a year ago, again, going up against one of the worst run defenses for the Buffs last season. Different looking group this year. They're beat up. They have a – they've suffered a bunch of injuries, reading about their team recently in the preseason. So I'm kind of – I think that's why this line has moved two points.

This line opened at 7.5, 9.5 now. I think Shador and Travis and company can cover the number here. Yeah, I do too. I think Colorado's going to cover this. I don't know about the total. I don't know because I think maybe you slow things down. Colorado's running Pat Shermer's offense now, and it's not Pat Shermer calling Sean Lewis's offense like at the end of last season. I'm guessing that this is a

slower paced offense in part to protect the defense. And you mentioned the D lineman they brought in. They brought in some guys who are probably NFL players on the D line. And that's the one thing Deion Sanders has been very adamant about is he likes this defensive line. He has not been real talkative about the offensive line, although the thought is that this is going to be a better group than last year. But that really isn't saying much because last year's offensive line was party to 56 sacks. And that was the second worst in the FBS uh only old dominion i think had more so they've got to be better up front gotta be better i i think they will be on defense not sure on offense yet yeah i'm yeah i'm not i'm not a pat schirmer believer but i think they can

i think they can score enough on saturday or on thursday excuse me yeah so we'll see what happens but i think colorado covers this one also thursday night this i think may be the more fun game on thursday night and this was a like there was a game at minnesota last year on on the thursday night of week one it was highly entertaining frustrating to watch as a football fan but last year remember Minnesota played Nebraska on that Thursday opening night Nebraska's defense forced Minnesota to throw a bunch like not what they wanted to do and uh Minnesota only won because Jeff Sims just kept handing the ball back to them uh and they wanted a thriller this time North Carolina comes in. Jesse, this line flipped yesterday. So Minnesota was favored by a point and a half on Sunday afternoon, and it flipped within five minutes at about 8.37 Eastern time.

It flipped to North Carolina being favored by a point and a half on the road. Now, the one piece of information, and it's not new information that's public, is Darius Taylor, the running back for Minnesota, who averaged 133 yards a game last year, but didn't play as much as you would have wanted to see him play as a freshman because he had hamstring issues. He got hurt in a public practice. So practice was open to the public. He got hurt a couple of weeks ago. And so it's unclear whether he's going to play. We had the prize picks board up,

you know, they've got the star players from, from all the other teams playing Thursday, but there's no Darius Taylor square. Cause it's not clear whether he's going to play, but he makes a big, big difference if he's playing or if he's not playing. Yeah. He averaged almost six yards a carry last year as a freshman. This is, you know, we were texting about this last night when the line moved.

This is, we're going to talk about the Florida-Miami game, which I've dubbed the anxiety bowl. This has got to be just like the paranoia showcase because neither of these teams want to release a depth chart neither of these head coaches held a spring game because they didn't want to tip their hand to the other uh you know north carolina it sounds like they're going to roll with two quarterbacks they're going to play max johnson and colin harrell uh yeah you know i mean that's it's there's you talk about unknowns there's a lot of unknowns with this one.

So I think you're just kind of covering your eyes and kind of pointing in one direction or the other. I would probably go with the Tar Heels just because they have a Marion Hampton. You know, they've made some portal additions defensively. You know, another big loss for Minnesota is, you know, you lose your, one of their top assistants, longtime defensive coordinator ends up leaving and going, uh, Michigan state. Yeah. Yeah. With Jonathan Smith at Michigan state. So I think, you know, first game without him, I just, I, I would go with the heels here, even though it's on the road.

So both these teams replacing their defensive coordinators, uh, remember, uh, Gene Chizik got fired last year in North Carolina. They bring in Jeff Collins. And we talked about Jeff Collins earlier and about how he tried to brand Georgia Tech as the head coach in an external way instead of creating a defined brand of how they play football. Now, it didn't work for him as a head coach. But here's the thing. Everywhere he's been as a defensive coordinator, he's been really good. Whether that was Mississippi state,

Florida, UCF, like he, he's been a good defensive coordinator. And I thought it was interesting, Jesse, you know, we talked about Florida state,

Georgia tech earlier. One of the things we didn't mention when we were talking about that is Tyler Santucci's defense at Georgia tech. So Tyler tyler santucci was the dc at duke under mike elko last year he goes to georgia tech suddenly a team that couldn't tackle anything was tackling everything and i think we need to pay attention to that in this north carolina game in lsu usc where you have new defensive coordinators on both sides of the game. And that matters because those teams that can't tackle, that get a new DC, and suddenly they practice in spring and practice in preseason camp and learn to tackle,

well, guess what? They can get quickly better. So with North Carolina, are they a better tackling team under Jeff Collins? There's a good chance they could be. What was his nickname? Was it the minister of mayhem? The minister of mayhem. And he has the people that jump up and down on third down the money down stuff. There's a lot of like schlocky stuff with him but yeah the the scheme is sound and it works it's worked at at places where you're playing really good competition and those defenses were not like they were good against good competition so i just think this is going to help them i don't know what the quarterback situation is going to be because like the

Max Johnson transfer, you know, he he's been at LSU. He's been the starter. He obviously was not going to be the starter at Texas A&M this year with Connor Wigman healthy again. So it wasn't like he was a massive, you know,

prize in the transfer portal that if you take this guy out of the portal and you give him an NIL deal, you have to start him. Like he's just, he was just looking for somewhere where he could legitimately compete for the job. that if you take this guy out of the portal and you give him an NIL deal, you have to start him. He was just looking for somewhere where he could legitimately compete for the job. And I guess he's legitimately competing for the job, but we don't know who's won it yet. Yeah, and I think it's a little concerning.

But again, he's not even the quarterback we're talking about here. Johnson and Harrell play in the spring, and then Mack Brown says, man, I think we need another body there, and they go. Jacoby Criswell, yeah. Jacoby Criswell, who had left in North Carolina and gone to Arkansas. Criswell apparently didn't show up in the camp in great shape, so he's kind of behind the eight ball, not in the race currently. The two-quarterback system is not something that we've seen work all that often in modern college football, but Mack seems to be rolling with it.

So I'm at least intrigued to watch this on Thursday night. Yeah, I hate to be that guy, and we agree on everything, but I'm going to take North Carolina here too. I do think they're going to be slightly better on defense. I think the pressure from last year of having to be Drake May being the top five pick, in a weird way, I think it's going to help them not having that this year. Hampton's a dude. Hampton's awesome.

He's a guy that if they lean on him, he may rush for, you know, 1800 yards this year. Yeah. And, and the thing is these two, these two teams actually may want to play a similar style of game. Like they may both want to run it, but if Darius Taylor's not playing, and again,

we don't know if he will, like if he shows up, you may see that line flip. Like if you find out he's dressing out on Thursday, that, that line may flip again to Minnesota being favored. So we'll find out, but I'm going to go with North Carolina to cover their one and a half points. Let us move to lovely Morgantown,

West Virginia. Penn State at West Virginia. Penn State is an eight and a half point favorite. The total here is 51.5. West Virginia, one of those sneaky, sneaky teams that won nine games last year. They've had probably a tougher schedule this year, but they've got Garrett Green, who is a very feast or famine, boomer bus kind of quarterback. And Penn State has a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki, Drew Allers back. We don't know what their receiving core is going to look like with Julian Fleming coming in from Ohio State. What do you think happens here? I mean, one does not just roll into Morgantown and cover a nearly two touchdown or at least two 10-point spread.

I think this line is actually probably going to end up moving up. I know Garrett Green is a hope-and-heave quarterback. He can do some – he's kind of a wild man back there. But I think Neil Brown loves him. I love Donaldson. You know, I mean, they have some quality weapons. So I don't know if West Virginia can actually win this game. I don't know if they have quite the firepower.

But I think they can at least put a scare in Penn State. And that's frankly, I'm shorting. I have a stock report piece coming out on three later today, Andy, where I roll through 25 teams and it's kind of who am I bullish on, who am I bearish on, and who am I unsure about? I've been pretty bearish on Penn State this entire offseason. I think Andy Kolnicki is going to be, now I could be wrong. We don't know anything. We're putting that out here. But my theory

and my guess is that Andy Koldenicki is going to be this year's Garrett Riley, where on paper, he probably is the best offensive hire in the entire country. And yet, I don't think it materially changes all that much for the team that he goes to because the head coach still seems to be in control of what they're, how they're dictating offensively. That's at least until I see otherwise, that's what I'm rolling with. So the question for me is, can West Virginia run the ball on these guys? Cause Penn state's defense is going to be very good. Tom Allen comes in to run the D this is another case of a guy who the head

coaching thing didn't work out at Indiana, but he was a great defensive coordinator everywhere. He's been, he got paid a lot more money than Jeff Collins too. That's true. That's true. And they've got so many dudes like Abdul Carter is amazing. And they're going to bring him off the edge.

That's going to be his position. Like he's, they're not going to attempt to play him at linebacker. They're just going to let him do what he does. So that makes it a little bit more difficult, but let me, let me roll these stats by you from last year, Jesse Jaheim white as a freshman at West Virginia, 109 carries for 842 yards. In case you're wondering, that's a 7.7 yard average. CJ Donaldson, the big back. Remember, he got recruited as a tight end, became a running back. He was a sophomore last year. He averaged 4.7 yards a carry, but he's the thunder.

And then Jaheim White's your lightning. But also, Garrett Green is a bit of lightning as well. He averaged 6.4 yards a carry, and that's after Saks got backed out. So Garrett Green is a threat with his legs. I'm with you. You're speaking my language here, Andy. This is one of the most fun teams to play with in NCAA. Yeah, I am with you on them putting a scare.

Now, here's where our logic will fail if it fails. Because you mentioned Garrett Green is a hope and heave quarterback. There could be some hoping and heaving that lead to interceptions, short fields, easy touchdowns for Penn State, and Penn State just covers. But I am going to say that Garrett Green keeps them in this game. I don't know if they win it, but I am going to say West Virginia covers this spread.

You give me more than a touchdown for West Virginia at home, I'm going to take that. Country roads, baby. Country roads. We're at lockstep. I mean, I think... I know. We're going to have to disagree eventually. We didn't plan this, by the way, because this is actually bad pod, but... Well, okay. Here's's one i don't know if this is a controversial game because i feel like everybody's feeling the same way about this game so i wonder if you are with the rest of us on this or if you are are going to go out on a limb here cle Clemson against Georgia in Atlanta, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Tigers are a 13.5-point underdog in this game. It feels like the consensus on this is that Georgia will do to Clemson what Georgia did to Oregon in week one two years ago,

but that that will be a referendum on Davos transfer portal policy, essentially. Yeah, well, here's the thing. I actually don't think it'll be a referendum in week one because, frankly, where Clemson is short is on depth. I think Clemson really likes their starting 22 outside of maybe some questions and concerns about, you know, Cade Klubnick, what does he actually, he actually – can he fulfill that five-star billing? I don't see it. I haven't seen it.

Maybe Garrett Riley in this offense looks like what Garrett Riley was doing with Max Duggan two years ago at TCU. Again, skeptical. So I don't think – maybe it will be a referendum eventually on the transfer portal. I feel like we've got to beat that narrative to a dead horse anyways. He refuses to participate. It's an unserious approach. That's why I do think using another S term, I do see this potentially being a splattering. That's the the problem is, is if it is a splattering, what does that mean? Because Clemson still looks at itself as on Georgia's level. Clemson looks at itself as a national

title contending team. And look, we're not that far removed from them winning two national titles, but they don't have the elite quarterback that they had for both of those national titles that, you know, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, not walking through that door right now. They have to figure out a way to do it without a top 10 pick a quarterback. And they haven't quite figured that out yet. They got to develop some receivers. They haven't done that. T Higgins was the last really great one. I guess T Higgins and Amari Rogers were the last two, but they haven't had anybody like that. Meanwhile, Georgia just continues to reload because they recruit well and use the transfer portal. So we may see Ben Urosik that Stanford transfer.

Uh, we may see, are we going to see Trevor ETN? We think there's, I kind of, I feel, it does feel like he's going to be suspended. Doesn't it? It seems like the UI,

I kind of wondering if, if they, they, cause Georgia can say, Hey, look how deep we are. We don't need to worry about this, but we'll Colby.

Young is an interesting one especially with raw rock thomas kicked off the team like colby young is a transfer from miami big receiver they kind of needed that red zone threat so it'll be interesting because georgia does what clemson should be doing where most of the guys are homegrown most of the guys are homegrown. Most of the guys are the people they got from high school. Then when they need something, they go get it. It's not exactly an Einstein strategy.

It's what teams and what these best teams should be doing. Again, it's a dereliction of duty of what Dabo has done with Clemson's approach. Because they do feel – they got Peter Woods. They got some dudes. They got Sammy Brown at linebacker.

They've signed lots of blue-chip players. Matt Luke has come in and shored up that offensive line. Matt Luke coaching the offensive line gives me some confidence. And remember, Matt Luke was Georgia's offensive line coach a few years ago. For one of those title teams. Yeah, I mean, he's done. So it's not like Davo has completely abandoned a lot of his principles or what made Clemson successful previously.

It's just that he has not continued to kind of grow and, you know, adapt with the times. And that I think frankly is going to hold the Tigers back. This should be a fun game. I will say if Clemson, A, you know, it won't be, if they keep it close, he won't do this. But if Clemson wins this game, if they upset Georgia, we thought his clap back at Tyler from Spartanburg last year was funny.

Clap back at all of us and he'll have earned it. We're going to get an all-time dabble. I told you so, Rand. Buy stock. If you bought stock, you're rich now. Well, we'll see. We'll see. The people who shorted it might wind up being happier.

But I'm taking Georgia to cover here. I think they're going to cover. I don't know if this is going to look exactly like the Georgia-Oregon game two years ago, but I think Georgia still with a point to prove after not making the playoff last year. I think they're still pissed off about that. I think they've had this off season like one of the things last year georgia started slowly they did not have this marquee game to open with and they they actually had a kind of soft opening to the season and it made them a softer team early in the season they they had to kind of round into form my guess is they've been training a little more you know with a little more of a purpose early in the season. They had to kind of round into form. My guess is they've been training a little more,

you know, with a little more of a purpose, knowing the level of athletes they're going to have on the other side of the field. And that's not usually a good thing for the opponent when it's Georgia. Not when a rabid dog wants to eat. Yeah, I'm with you. I think 14, if it gets to 14, I'm with you. I think 14. If it gets to 14, I probably would take Clemson just because there's a lot of

backdoor potential there. Possibility, exactly. Once the backups come in, yeah. If the line moves, I could see that, especially if ETN's not playing. Georgia's a little shorthanded at running back. But I don't know. This will be a good amuse-bouche for the rest of the afternoon, I think. Yeah. not playing georgia a little shorthanded at running back but i don't know this this will be this will be a good amuse-bouche for the for the rest of the afternoon i think yeah if this

were a first-time starter for georgia quarterback i remember when when clemson opened the season in athens in 2021 when it was jt daniels now he wasn't a first-time starter but it was a man in charlotte oh that's right that's right and then and then they it was just it was, Oh, that's right. That's right. And then, and then they, it was just, it was a slobber knocker. Neither team could score on the other and Georgia, you know, ground out a win. Like Clemson could maybe turn it into that level of game. If this was not Carson Beck with a full season under his belt, knowing how to use the weapons he has. I think if Georgia had a less experienced, less dynamic quarterback, then yeah, I would go with Clemson in this game to cover. But I just think Georgia's going to be able to score on him,

and I'm not sure how Clemson's going to be able to score on Georgia. All right, let us move on. Speaking of not being sure how anybody's going to score you know what we do every week we pick the iowa total and this one's a fascinating one illinois state at iowa now i was a 23 and a half point favorite i we're not picking the spread i we can we can reference the spread we can talk about it but i i'm more interested in the total. Kirk Ferentz is not coaching in this game.

Tim Lester, the new Iowa offensive coordinator, is coaching in this game. Will it look appreciably different than the Brian Ferentz offense? And now I'll mention the spread again. So this is a 23.5 point spread with a 41.5 point total. So we're talking aboutgas thinking this is like a 32 to 9 iowa win but my thing on this jesse is i feel like if you if you take the iowa over in a game like this you have to be confident that iowa can score all 42 points that you need because illinois state might not score and i am not confident in that, Andy. I do not. We're talking about the drive for 365 a year ago, and they couldn't get, you know, 20-something points a game.

I don't – Cade McNamara threw multiple interceptions in, like, the first Iowa scrimmage. I just – no, no. Flat no. Now, maybe you disagree because you think that, you know, they'll score a couple of defensive touchdowns and somehow managed to, to, to hit that, you know, near, near six touchdowns total. But no, I, I do not see it.

This has, this has with Kurt Ferens, you know, watching this game from his couch, this game has, you know, 23 to nothing written all over it. What, what if Seth Wallace, the acting head coach, just is like, screw it. Let's go five wide. Let's spread this thing out and let's go. Do they have five receivers?

I don't even know if they have five receivers. I don't either. Well, and remember receivers coach, John Budmayer also suspended insert your own. What is the eye receivers coach actually do joke right here. Apparently, he recruited Cade McNamara. Too well, in fact. A, it worked.

If Cade McNamara actually winds up being a good quarterback, Kirk Ferentz sitting out the Illinois State, is an easy price to pay. Easy price to pay. Oh boy. This is, this is going to be a lot of fun though. I am going to take the under, I learned my lesson last year.

I think I took, took an aisle over and got burned once or twice. Oh, one of my bold predictions a year ago was that there would be no sweat in the drive for three 65. That was just complete. you talk about completely. Oh, it was the drive for 325. You're making it harder on Brian Ferris than it actually was.

325, excuse me. Yeah, drive for 325. I just completely whiffed on that. By the way, yeah, I think this is going to be so much fun this year because maybe i was a little bit different on offense yeah they we forget they had a lot of injuries last year kate mcnamara was hurt from the get-go was not himself then he gets knocked out for the season luke lachey their best tight end got knocked out for the season but you know maybe this is just a big year for nico ragaini maybe it is willie thomas in the chat death taxes

iowa under we're taking the iow under jesse can we disagree on something oh well i here here's one here's one so if you've been paying attention to the chat this entire show this is the game everybody's been arguing about in the chat the miami hurricanes coming to the swamp as a two and a half point favorite miami at florida you call it the anxiety bowl i call it it the pitch forks and torches bowl. Whoever wins great. Whoever loses that fan base is completely melting down. This is going to be incredible theater,

incredible theater because the losing fan base is going to want their coach fired before the next game i i i i can't wait for this game this is going to be the uh you know this is you need to have message board geniuses just like already loaded up on standby just screenshot screenshot screenshot on on second screen the second this basically once this game hits the second quarter because fans are going to be going apoplectic one way or another. Look, Miami, again, in my stock report piece, kind of teaser there, my little blurb on them is basically, succinctly,

it's the reason I'm unsure about the Hurricanes is I think they probably, on paper, are the most talented team in the ACC and should win the conference. And yet, at the same time, I could see them losing in Gainesville and losing to Georgia Tech and Louisville again this year. So, which Miami do you see? Which Miami do you believe in?

I'm going to roll with the Gators. I think that they cover the two points. And not only that, Andy, if you want to disagree, agree, whatever, I think they win the game. I think Florida wins the game. I mean, the spread is so small. If you're picking Florida, you may as well pick Moneyline. Like, that's at that point.

I don't know. I've spent the entire summer thinking I'm going to pick Florida here just because I don't know. I've spent the entire summer thinking I'm going to pick Florida here just because I don't trust Miami, but I'm not sure I trust Florida either. Like I don't trust either of these teams. I have no idea what's going to happen here. No idea.

So you've got cam word coming in as a starting quarterback for Miami. We've seen him at Washington state and we've seen him good at Washington state. We've also seen him just throw up lollipops for interceptions at Washington state. Damian Martinez at running back going to be pretty good. We, we,

but we'll, we'll that line be able to, to reset the line of scrimmage. Will they be able to move the ball on Florida, Florida's defense? Another one where perhaps they're tackling better. They went and got a lot of guys out of the transfer portal that are older, that have been through some stuff. They could not tackle. They could

not stop a nosebleed last season. If they tackle better, suddenly this is a much more interesting game. It's funny because you've got some people who are just out on Graham Mertz. I don't get it. If you watch Graham Mertz at Florida last year, he was a very good quarterback for them. He was very capable. So I just don't know where to go with this. The fact that you said Florida, now I'm... See, I thought I was the one going out on the limb there

if I was going to pick Florida. I don't know if I... I might be making a change here. I might be calling an audible. I've been dubbed a Miami hater all offseason. Again, last year it was the Dion, do you believe, this year for me. It's Miami. What do you think about this, though?

Is this a game that's like all outcomes are possible? This is a game where all outcomes – yes. Yes, Miami blowout win. Florida blowout win. Close Miami win. Close Florida. Everything is on the table i agree which is and that's what makes a game like this so fun and and tantalizing is that uh you know kevin garnett anything is possible you know i mean you just scream it to to the to the mountaintops i mean it's it's going to be just, you talk about just swamp, you know, you know what, uh, uh, in people's pants, uh,

three 30 afternoon in Gainesville with the humidity heat. I mean, this is going to be, it's, it's, it's, it is going to be a fun one. This is going to be, this is, this is one where the atmosphere definitely can affect the game. It is going to be unhinged in that stadium on Saturday. So it's up to Miami to quiet it down quickly, or it could get – like you look at the Tennessee game last year where they came in without their starting center, and all of a sudden,

it just could not function in that environment. If Miami can settle it down quickly, I think they're okay. So I'm thinking about how I felt about Florida State all offseason. And I was like, I'm going to, you know, I'm riding with them. I think they're going to win the ACC. And then I see them play and I'm like, that's not anywhere near the team I envisioned. So all offseason, I've been like, okay, I'm going to pick Florida in this game because I don't necessarily trust Miami yet.

Florida's at home. They've got the environment. They obviously need the win, but I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to call an audible. I'm calling audible. I'm picking the canes. You're rolling with cam ward, cam ward, call an audible. I'm picking the Canes. You're rolling with Cam Ward? Cam Ward, Damian Martinez? Picking the Canes.

I did not... I spent months thinking I was going to pick Florida in this game, and I may look like a complete moron now, but I'm picking the Canes because I'm just going, okay, what if everything I set in stone over nine months is wrong? I think Florida State showed us that. And Miami is just a better roster, and they're just good. What if that happens?

And that's the thing with this Florida schedule too. There's a lot of opponents that they have to face that might just be good. And no matter how much you've incrementally improved, it's not, you have to be really good to win against this schedule. And I don't know if it was really good yet. I can't, there's no way I,

there's no way I can retort any of that. I'm rolling with the Gators based on them being at home and it being kind of a gut. I think Billy, spending some time around him this offseason, he certainly has not carried himself like a coach who thinks he's about to get fired, and that's not nothing. And yet, as we just saw, as you alluded to Florida State, just because of what a coach thinks they have or what they think they are doesn't mean your team ends up playing that way.

And I think it's going to get pretty hairy in Gainesville one way or another come about 7 p.m. for one of these coaches. There's a take for this game. There's a blazing hot take no matter what happens no matter what happens but the chat seems split 50 50 on this thing you and i are split 50 50 on it you're picking the gators i'm picking the canes this is going to be spectacular mitch the swamp ain't dookie florida fans think a stadium will beat miami well i mean i can understand a miami fan not understanding home field advantage

yeah i was a concept he literally he literally put that on a t for you and i'm picking his team but i'm sorry you can't throw that red meat out there for me and not have me chomp on it self-owned oh all right two more big big games this weekend by the way before we get to these two titanic tilts there's a lot of games that we're not talking about because we're just looking at them like they're potential blowouts i believe our our friend Ralph Russo from the associate press counted 53 FBS versus FCS games. If you count week zero and week one, what that means to me, Jesse is not, there's going to be a bunch of boring games.

There are going to be a bunch of boring games, but there's going to be some upsets that were like, what the hell just happened? And I don't know which ones they're going to be. So just be aware guys. There's going to be a fewets that we're like what the hell just happened and i don't know which ones they're going to be so just be aware guys there's going to be a few of those this weekend yeah i mean that's it it's going to be the ones that you get the oh the second screen you're immediately turning it on and you're like virginia tech is losing the old dominion you know yeah hey it's happened before i don't you know uh but yeah i these marketing games they take the spotlight but there's there's great college football all day saturday well we talked about north dakota state and colorado obviously south dakota state oklahoma

state kind of falls in that bucket too so there will be some strange things that happen, whether it's a group, a group of five team or an FCS team upsetting a power conference team. It is entirely possible. We're going to see multiple of that, but let us get back to the brand on brand violence. Notre Dame at Texas A&M. Notre Dame is a two and a half point dog going to college station. We don't know what Notre Dame's offensive line is going to look like exactly. Charles Jagasaw, their starting left tackle out for the season. He got hurt a few weeks ago. Now, as Tyler Horka from Blue and Gold pointed out when he was on the show, Charles Jagasaw had only started one game. He started the Sun Bowl last year. He was a redshirt freshman. So it wasn't like Notre Dame was going to have a veteran

heavy offensive line that has been in these situations before going into this game. It was always going to be younger, less experienced guys having to play against a really good Texas A&M defensive line in a really tough environment. So I don't know that Charles Jagasaw being hurt should change what you were going to think about it. Like if you thought Notre Dame was going to win this game before that, I don't know that it should change it that much. You know, I'm going to push back on that, Andy. I think that, you know, I think that that's kind of putting lipstick on a pig because Jagasol was a blue chip recruit who had gotten to spend basically two years in the program. Now Notre Dame is going to have to play a true freshman at that spot who has not been practicing, you know, with the team for two seasons. So when you, when you're then saying, oh, hey,

in your first career start, you got to go up against Nick Skorton and Shamar Turner and Shamar Stewart and these boys. That's tough. I think really the bigger question, though, if the reason that I, you know, I'm kind of – I still haven't made a final decision of how I'm leaning on this game. It's that what do we see from Riley Leonard at quarterback? I mean, how healthy is he? Is he going to be kind of a willing runner like he was a couple years ago

at Duke? Or does he still kind of have some lingering – you know, I don't know if it's effects or if it's a mental thing or what, you know, from getting hurt last year. So if he can show up, Notre Dame needs this game. I will say that. Notre Dame needs to win this game with the rest of their schedule because now that Florida State game doesn't look quite as good,

and they play like multiple FCS teams. They play both service academies. Georgia Tech game looks tougher, though. Georgia Tech game looks tougher, but there's nine or ten wins kind of just sitting there for Notre Dame. Um, and so if you lose this game, I don't know how many impressive performances you're going to have for the playoff. I mean, we'll see what Louisville is again. We're kind of guesstimating here before we've seen one week of football. Um, but I think that I think the Irish really need this one. And on the flip side, I mean, the Aggies have had a quiet confidence

the entire offseason. So, I mean, are you leaning with Connor Wegman, or where are you going with this? This is another one I feel like I've thought one thing about this game all offseason, and that is that A&M is going to win this thing. The fact that the public feels that way, Vegas feels that way, now I'm like – The line's split like the lines fall into the trap again yeah the line because Notre Dame opened up originally as a favorite and and with the injuries and with some of the other information the line has much like North Carolina

just not as not with the expediency that it was last night, but much like that game, it, the line has flipped a little bit. Cause it actually moved to, to a and a minus three for a bit last week. And then now it's come back to minus two and a half, but yeah. So I like, cause I do think that Notre Dame's offense should be more dynamic than, than what we saw last year,

because they're going to have receivers that can like Chris Mitchell, the FIU transfer should be very helpful, but also just having all those guys healthy. Like Jaden Greathouse was not healthy for all last season. Riley Leonard, if he's healthy... And again, we haven't seen healthy Riley Leonard. But think about this. Let's go back to the game where Riley Leonard got hurt,

which ironically was against Notre Dame last year. Riley Leonard was keeping Duke in it. Think about Riley Leonard against Clemson. Like he elevates the people around him when he's healthy. He also threw three touchdowns last year. Yeah. Yeah. He was hurt most of the season.

Yeah. So I take it. You're taking the aggies i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna go with nick scorton i think he's gonna be of of the transfers in this game coming out of this game that everyone's talking about it's gonna be the edge rusher for texas a&m so i we know how i feel about mike elko we know i feel like it's going to be a very successful tenure for him in college station and it's going to be a very successful tenure for him in College Station. And in fact, this could be a very successful year, though I don't think he has to deal with any sort of unreasonable expectations. That said, I think Notre Dame needs this game.

I think we are sleeping on Notre Dame a little bit because they had a key injury. I think Notre Dame is going to win it. You give me a few points, I'll take them. Eat them up. This will be an interesting one because you're right. Notre Dame needs to win this one for its playoff chances because the schedule's not great. Usually you can say, oh, a typical Notre Dame schedule, you go 10-2

against it, you're going to be an at-large team in the playoff. With this one, you might have to go 11 and one to get the at-large. So you're going to need to win this one. So I'll take the Irish here. And if they don't win it, they're behind the eight ball for sure. One more. Sunday night in Vegas, LSU versus USC, a matchup of two teams whose defenses last year could not be much worse, and they have made changes on the coaching staff in both cases, both of them replacing Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks. It's a Spider-Man meme.

It is, and I'm telling you right now, Jesse, I'm not worried about either offense. I think this game comes down to whose defense actually got better yeah i mean what what's so what's the final spread on this one what are we sitting at so the total is 63 and a half we can pick the total too if you want total 63 and a half i mean i'm are you're gonna take an under in lsu usc uh i mean that's i doubt it that's yeah let's use a four and a half point favorite total 63 and a half so we're talking about a a shootout of of epic proportions which is exactly what i want in my standalone sunday night game ryan kelly cannot lose this game, right?

I mean, if you three straight years, if you lose a spotlight showcase game where you're the only game everybody's watching and you lose as any, they were a favorite two of those times, at least I think this would be, you talk about, you know, the Florida game, Florida, Miami narrative, narrative, narrative. This game is close because, you know because USC is basically budget LSU. They just haven't spent quite as much money in the transfer portal. They don't have quite as many good players. But you still say, hey, their coach has a track record of winning a lot of big games.

I don't know. I mean, I'm actually surprised that this spread is not even a little bit tighter just because I do think there's some real concerns about LSU's front seven. And yet, it's not exactly like we have a ton of answers about, you know, what DeAnton Lynn's working with at USC. It's not like he got to bring over all those hosses and dudes he had over at UCLA. He brought some of them, though. He did bring some.

Now, Laitulatu is obviously an Indianapolis Colt, but look. hosses and dudes he had over at ucla he brought some of them though he did bring something i know like too lot to is obviously indiana's cult but uh look you i'm gonna turn the question you asked on you you asked can brian kelly afford to lose this game can lincoln riley afford to lose this game remember they've got utah state next week but then they've got at michigan and then wisconsin comes like things get very tough very early for usc if they don't win this game they're in a world of hurt especially like let's say their offense is not as dynamic as as maybe they'd hoped and lsu does play well on defense that gives you no confidence with them going into Michigan no you're not wrong but I still think there's more pressure on Brian Kelly

frankly just because he's got a he's got a bigger crooked number next to his name here LSU I think has you know they've at least been considered a fringe playoff team uh you know in this new 12 team era I think if a school like lsu or penn state doesn't make it in this first 12 team playoff um their fan bases are going to be pretty rabid rabidly angry because i think brian kelly's bought himself like winning the sec west in year one helps having a heisman trophy winner in year two even though the defense stunk helps like he's he's bought himself time and you look at lsu's 25 recruiting class like what what's been lsu's problem like for whatever reason the lsu cornerback factory

seems to have shut down like you look at that recruiting class for 25, they're reopening that factory. So I think they're addressing the needs, but the defensive needs personnel wise have not been addressed. So again, like we talked about with the Georgia tech game, like we talked about with the North Carolina game, does having new defensive coaching staff dramatically improve the defense when the defense is a lot of the same guys. And I think that's, so De'Anton Lynn at USC at least got to bring in, he brought in a couple of guys from UCLA,

brought in some other guys from around the country where you see where he was trying to bring in the body types that he prefers. Cause obviously the defense Alex Branch ran, one of the big criticisms of Alex French was that especially up front the body types were not what they needed to be and I mean all you got to do is look at what Brent Venables had to do on Oklahoma's defensive line as soon as Alex French left like they had to immediately import 300 pounders so they didn't have any and you've seen alex grinch get a bunch of long dbs he wants long you know rangy corners he got some of those so or see the dance and lynn get those guys so it will be a fascinating kind of case study because lsu really didn't change much personnel wise but did hire blake

baker from missouri does blake baker alone and his and the staff members he brought do they change that much and does Dan Lynn change that much that's that's my question and the thing is like we may not know because LSU replacing Jaden Daniels but also replacing Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. two first round receivers do they have a first round receiver on this team i don't know i do know they have the best offensive line uh in this game and that's why i'm gonna be that and the the brian kelly desperation just him needing this win uh is why i'm gonna go with i'm gonna go with lSU here. It's kind of a weird number.

It's in that Bill Simmons Vegas zone where it's four and a half. That's kind of an odd number. Not crazy about that. But again, can Danton Lynn teach a new group of dogs how to tackle? Because as we talked about with the Georgia Tech coach, Tyler Santucci was able to do that. Yeah. That was a lot of the same guys,

and Georgia Tech looked fundamentally very much improved there. USC, I mean, it was a, you know, car crash, you know, crash test dummies, you know, trying to tackle folks a year ago. It was just pathetic. So have they fixed that? We'll see. Colin Lacey and some of these guys that LSU has on the perimeter, I think they still like those guys, even as you mentioned, you did lose a pair of first-round wideouts.

Yeah, they bring in C.J. Daniels from Liberty. Yeah, he's good. So Colin Lacey's still there. So they got talent there. Garrett Nussmeyer we think is going to be a very good quarterback too but and I think Miller Moss can be just fine like I realized they brought on Jaden Maiava and it took a while for for Lincoln to name Miller Moss the starter I think he's gonna be fine too this is all about the defense I think LSU covers here I think it's a fun, fun game. I'm going to say LSU covers and take the over.

So you got, you got them hitting the 63 and a half. I'll say LSU covers, but, but it's going to be an, they're not going to get 63 and a half. Okay. Taking the under, which means somebody's defense got better. Somebody's defense got better. And I think as we saw in that Florida state game, you know, sometimes these possessions can shrink up quickly well and okay while we're talking about that the helmet communication we had coaches tell us in the offseason this could lead to more huddling because it's just easier to tell the quarterback and then he tells the team it may slow teams down we only have the the few games we saw and some of these like i saw i watched smu play they still had all the signs they were still trying to go very fast last year

they want to go faster right so i i do think we're going to see some teams try that but i also think we're going to see some teams slow down so some of these some of these teams or some of these totals may have to come down as the season goes on. Cause we may just see fewer possessions in games. Yeah. We're going to find out. And,

and you know, it's lovely that college football can't call it the two minute warning. We have to call it the two minute timeout. You call it whatever you want, everybody. Yeah. Whatever you want. Just don't call me late for kickoff.

Sorry, I had to. You teed me up. Just like that Miami fan talking about home field advantage teed me up. You teed me up. Jesse, we've picked some games. We're guaranteed to be wrong. Hey, now they can use prize picks, and they can either fade us or double down on us.

Yep. I'm just glad. It's been a wild and wacky offseason. I'm just glad the games are here. The talking season is over. It's time. It's not over yet. We've got a Counter Stallions documentary to go.

I'll tell you what. I'm going to watch the Counter Stallions documentary. I will give my review on the show. And then we will officially declare the offseason over. Rubber stamp. I like I will find like a flash drive and buried in my yard to signify the end of the offseason. I was going to say you need to get like a gravel, get like a gavel and just like, uh,

smash it. Like, yes, the evidence. It's going to be amazing. Jesse Simonson. Thank you so much.

I cannot wait to talk about all this stuff with you as the games go on. Cannot wait to read what you write at on three. We've got the stock

report coming out. I've got bracketology. Got a lot more fun stuff for you to read what you write at on three. We've got the stock report coming out. I've got bracketology. Got a lot more fun stuff for you to read and to watch. And remember, schedule change. We're on in the morning, Monday through Thursday during the season. And then we come back Saturday night. So Monday through Thursday, Saturday night. And obviously when everything breaks, when things happen,

we got that emergency show siren for you. So it's all going to be there for you. We'll give you what you need in any way you need it, whether it's written, video, audio, podcast, you name it. It's going to be such a fun season. It's game week. Let's's go we'll talk to you tomorrow