Andy & Ari On3 - Week two COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS; Michigan-Oklahoma, Kansas-Missouri and MORE

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's edition of Andy and Ari on 3, it is a live picks edition. We got some big games to pick Michigan, headed to Oklahoma, a renewal of the Kansas Missouri rivalry, the Seahawk trophy, Iowa and Iowa State. And how about USF, the darling of week one, headed to Florida to play in the swamp? We're picking all those games and more on today's episode of Andy and Ari on three. We have teamed up with BetMGM this season. We'll be using BetMGM lines to make all our picks. And we'll have special offers for our listeners each week.

Starting point is 00:00:40 When you join BetMGM, you get access to a variety of Parlay selection features like same game parley's live betting options and more. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB, as in college football, CFB. And you'll get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with. BetMGM. Here's how that works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code CFB when you sign up. Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary with BetMGM. See betmgmgm.com for terms 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers are not available in New

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Starting point is 00:01:55 First bet offer for new customers only, subject to eligibility requirements, rewards are non-witrable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Annie and RM. Presented by BetMGM. I realize week one isn't really over yet, but it is still time to make the week two picks. But Ari, we do have a week. one game tonight, Bill Belichick, making his college coaching debut, TCU versus North Carolina

Starting point is 00:02:34 in Chapel Hill. We have both picked TCU minus three and a half. That is the current line at MedMGM. We picked it last week. It has not moved. What do you think? I have not loved TCU this much since they opened against Colorado in Dion Sanders' first game. Oh, that's Probably not the thing anybody wants to hear when you talk about you being on TCU. That's the joke. I think, you know, listen, all the things that we can come up with Andy here in terms of how to evaluate a roster, pick a game, you know, it's, you're betting on, do you believe Bill Belichick is a genius and he could flip the roster in one offseason and be better than a team that has a quarterback that half the SEC wanted this offseason? Or do you think that Sonny Dykes, a team that took TCU to the national title game a few years ago? Who has a quarterback that three quarters of the SEC won in this off season?

Starting point is 00:03:31 That's what I'm saying. Yeah, like it's, uh, it's kind of a, it seems like the layup play. Like, if I, if one of us had UNC, you mean like Alabama minus 13 and a half against floor state, the layup? People who watch the show know that we're wrong. And I think everybody's wrong. The best gamblers in the world are going for 65 percent, right? So, but, you know, if one of us had the North Carolina, you know, blue up here on the screen right now for Labor Day picks, if your analysis is Bill Belichick's a God, like, that's not convincing enough for me. So we might turn out to find out that that's all that, you know, it is.

Starting point is 00:04:12 But, you know, I've been very open with how I feel about this. And, you know, the way that Dion Sanders got his team together two years ago was very impressive and he caught us off guard. I don't know if that's the, you know, regular thought. I don't know, man. Convince me why we could be wrong for something other than Bill Belichick coach in the NFL. Because we don't actually know anything. That's why. It's pretty convincing, yeah.

Starting point is 00:04:38 All I have to say is Alabama FSU right now, and that probably tells, like, everybody goes, oh, yeah, we don't actually know anything. Yeah, TCU fan was messaging me today saying that he's afraid that TCU's got some holes on its offensive. line and that, you know, if we learn anything from Matt Patricia's debut at Ohio State, it's that an NFL coordinator who's not preparing to coach against Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady can scheme up some things, looks wise, to confuse an offensive line with blitzes, which then gets in the quarterback's head. But in this instance, that's, you know, a little bit different than what Matt Patricia did, is you have a statement. Matt Patricia has Caleb Downs.

Starting point is 00:05:15 Well, Matt Patricia also was going against a player who was making his first time start as the full-time starter. And, you know, Josh Hoover, I think is more season than that. So, you know, I think that with me, I don't know what's going to have to happen. Maybe two years down the line, my thought process will be different. But I'm, you know, when I'm betting, I'm betting on personnel. I don't bet on narrative. And I think that TCU, you know, you can say with the straight face has really superior personnel. Now, maybe we're going to get a taste of what Mike Norvell is doing in Chapel Hill, which is getting undervalued guys in the portal that you believe fit your system and then putting together

Starting point is 00:05:55 a team that plays well and plays hard together really fast. And you have a close game, especially considering the fact that hipes through the roof, the game's in Chapel Hill, all those things. But yeah, like I just feel like there's more reasons to pick TCU than there is to pick North Carolina. Andy, we said we're wrong all the time. Yeah, we are wrong all the time. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to try to make deep or picks. based on deep analysis and thought. Like, you know, if that was enough. This analysis is not deep.

Starting point is 00:06:26 I'll tell you that, because we don't know anything about North Carolina. They haven't let us see anything. So there's nothing deep about the analysis at all. It is, it is, TCU probably has the better quarterback. He's experienced. TCU probably has the better roster. We could be completely wrong on that, but we'll find out. I just think it's interesting because I wonder, you know, gamblers like to gamble.

Starting point is 00:06:48 It's an isolated game on a Monday night, the last game on a Monday night. the last game on a Monday night before Monday night football takes over. Of all the people who have placed bets on North Carolina with BetMGM, how many of those people do you think know who Josh Hoover is? I would say 25%.

Starting point is 00:07:03 25%? Yeah. So, you know, it's, when I say deep analysis, it's not just TCU as a quarterback we've heard of. It's, you know, a deep understanding of how rosters are built, what it takes continuity-wise, a coach that's already proven that he's a elite level evaluator at

Starting point is 00:07:20 the college level um you know it's it what mike norvel did this offseason and what he did two years ago is really really really hard what dion sanders did two years ago really really hard you know what i'm not saying eight years ago so let's not yeah what dion went four and eight go too yeah yeah right but to at least put the yeah that was more of like a win one for the gipper situation it felt like and tc u was all out of sorts and i think that the one thing that makes me like TCU even more in this instance is, and we talked to Sunny Dykes about this at Big 12 media. It was like learning from that circus and learning from trying to coach, you know, a coach that, you know, is unknown at this level or somebody that you're

Starting point is 00:08:04 not quite sure, you know, what they're going to do tendency-wise as comparison to their hype. So, you know, I don't know, man. I'm really, really looking forward to it because just morbid curiosity of what North Carolina is probably that's me right here. I just want to see. it. I want to see Bill Belichick. I want to, well, like, what's he going to wear? Honestly, like, how will he mutilate a North Carolina sweatshirt to coach a game? These are the things I want to know. Where will Jordan sit? What is he going to wear? They're selling the pre-cut-off hoodies in the bookstore. So I'm thinking it's one of those. I'm just going to go look at the Chapel Hill forecast. It's probably going to be in the 70s, right? Chapel Hill. I

Starting point is 00:08:50 Till tonight will be in the mid-70s around kickoff. So, or low 70s, so maybe we'll get that. But, like, he did the cutoff, the cutoff sweater was usually in very cold weather, wasn't it? No, he did it in warm weather, too. He just didn't put anything underneath it. Yeah, that wouldn't be cool if Jordan had a headset, wouldn't it? We'll find out. And that's been your Bill Belichick Fashion Minute.

Starting point is 00:09:17 Ari, we do have to get to the games that we're actually picking. We are keeping the records this year, so full accountability here. Ari, seven and four against the spread so far this season. I am five and six. I am two games behind. Neither of us is going to gain or lose anything on each other with this North Carolina TCU game. We'll see how our picks today go.

Starting point is 00:09:37 But before we get to the picks today, I do want to show you a couple pieces of video. Let us start with Kalin DeBoer, from today. Alex Scarborough of 24-7 asking Kalynne DeBore a question, and it really kind of sums up where Bama's at after that Florida State game. You mentioned the great week before the game. Just how much do self-scout the preparation before games and are there times as a coach where maybe you notice during the week that things might not be going the way that you want them to? You said, what do you mean, great week? A great week. You said a great week of preparation. For this week, you're saying?

Starting point is 00:10:16 Or are you referring to last week? Going up to Florida State before that game. I said that? You said that, yeah, before. Oh, just. Oh, yeah. Okay, all right. Yeah, I mean, I think our guys did.

Starting point is 00:10:29 I mean, defensively, I felt like that we were pretty honed in, gone back and actually looked at the practice film on some of the reps that we took that were pretty much identical to what we saw, and just trying to figure out, you know, why were we, one step or why was our communication just a little bit slower. So it's just, you know, again, these guys have already shown me yesterday how bad they want it and how they're going to respond. And so, you know, I really feel like the tone in the locker room after the game, at least from my standpoint, and how I can address the team is completely different than it was a year ago.

Starting point is 00:11:09 And so, you know, we don't need to speak in those terms, but it just, it feels different. There's more of a, like, just flat out upset. You know, I can use a lot of different words to explain it. But this, you know, really upset about how it went. You know, these aren't learning moments anymore, you know. This is us and our program. And, you know, again, we understand the situation we've put ourselves in and that we're in. but it is a long season and uh wait i said we had a great practice

Starting point is 00:11:43 wait i did so me i do that sometimes too though i say things and then i block out just will feral against james carvel in old school yeah i just blacked out for a second you know so let me just ask you this because we had a relationship or You know, knew Kailin DeBoer, at least I did on a surface level when he was at Washington and was the nicest, most approachable, humble. Great guy. Great guy. We had this conversation with Ryan Day before he flipped his entire narrative as a human being in the last five games. I think you actually asked him this when we were talking off air.

Starting point is 00:12:29 I did. But about like being a normal human that I want to go to have to be with and if you have to be a psychopath to be a good college football coach. And, like, this is starting to, and I guess, like, Ryan Day is unequivocally proven that that's not the case unless he's becoming. I mean, yeah, we're not, we don't have a definitive answer on the nipples yet. Yeah, I didn't say freak, okay? I said, it's all part of the same ecosystem. I will die on the hill that he should pierce his nipples if they win the national title. You know how, like, Jim Harbaugh got a tattoo? Hey, if we won the championship, the nipple thing would be great. but all kidding aside like i look at caleb de bore because i've never had a face to face

Starting point is 00:13:10 interaction with him since he's taken the job at bama but if he is the same person and i assume that he is that he was at washington like i do feel a little bad um and i wonder if like he is like melting down i don't know if he's melting down i just think it's it's difficult because the pressure of that job is more intense than than most jobs in the entire world and you've actually seen it. Dennis Franchione did cave under the pressure and ran off to Texas A&M, which says something about the era of college football at the time, because Texas A&M, I would argue, is as intense a job as this now. But I just think it's, there's nothing that's going to be good enough other than winning the national title every year. And you have to, you have to accept that when you take the job. And if you didn't have that conversation with yourself when you decided to leave Washington, you did yourself a disservice. Do you think that it's possible for even a coach who has won everywhere he's gone to underestimate that pressure before taking the job?

Starting point is 00:14:12 Yes. Yes. A coaching agent texted me the other day and was telling me about a conversation they had with somebody else who had said, oh, do you think people are watching this and saying, oh, that Alabama jobs maybe a little more than I want to do? And it'll cause them to stay if, let's say, it opened. if a job like that opens and the agent goes of course not they all think they're the solution to the problem and that's the mindset and you kind of have to have that mindset so yeah i i think

Starting point is 00:14:45 want to hire a coach that would be wary of that so yes good thing um you know there are a lot of programs in college football and i'm going to kind of latch on to what you just said about a andm andy um in that a andm is a town full of crazy people who are willing to pay a big buyout But the difference between Alabama and other jobs like Florida and Florida State and some of these other places that have proud programs that expect to win is that the standard of what they got used to is so much higher than even what success would be determined at. If they go to the playoff at A&M, like you're a hero, you know what I mean? Going to the playoff at Bama baseline expectation. You know what I mean? There is still like there is no room for hiccup.

Starting point is 00:15:29 The 14th playoff was a baseline expectation. Not even the 12. Yeah, right. I don't think that even if Alabama, I think if they turned it around and somehow made the playoff this year that people would be able to forgive him for what happened in Tallahassee.

Starting point is 00:15:42 But the baseline level of expectation is so much higher at Bama than even at the other most proud places. And it's brings me back to his answer because the beginning was clunky, right? I couldn't figure out what I was saying. What do you saying? What did he say?

Starting point is 00:15:58 Who's on first base? I don't know what was going on there. But I did think that what he, he said at the end of his answer, which was, this isn't a learning experience anymore, we know what we got ourselves into, I think was the right thing to say. So I think he deserves credit for that. And he's very clearly trying to hit the note of this year isn't last year, because he recognizes that that loss looked like three of last year's losses. And if you have three more losses like that this year, he's going to be fired. I don't care how big the buyout is.

Starting point is 00:16:32 it's Alabama you can't go eight and four yeah and you know that's that I wouldn't say that about most other places but I am saying that about Alabama I mean honestly you could even say the case at Alabama standards higher than Ohio states I would I would agree with that a decade without winning a national title Ryan Day lost to his rival four times in a row before they won the national title you think you can lose to Auburn four times in a row in Tuscaloosa not get fired. Oh, my God. No.

Starting point is 00:17:05 I mean, Mike Shula was in the midst of that. And that's why he got fired. That's why they hired Nick Saban. We can go down another road that will probably upset some people in Tuscalo, but I do wonder two, two things. One, the acceptance that Nick Saban isn't coming back, as bad as your message board wants it to.

Starting point is 00:17:23 You know, I read that quote that Paul Feinbaum had this morning. I don't know if you saw that. And I know he's playing a character at a certain extent, but that was like, why won't you just come back and cut? Like, he's not coming back, right? I don't know. It would be something for the show if he came back at any point in the next year. But do you think that Alabama, a program that has historically been driven by having the most legendary coaches,

Starting point is 00:17:45 and you and I have had the discussion in the offseason while ranking jobs of Alabama is actually the best job or if great coaches have made it look like one? But if the Alabama fans will ever get back to a point where their expectations are still the highest in the country, but not unreasonable. Like, do you think that, like, even if they make the playoff and they make the playoff three years in a row, but don't win a national title under DeBoer? Like, right now, don't you think that would be enough? If they made the playoff the next three years in a row and made it to the final four once or twice. Oh, yeah, that's fine. It's enough. You're not going to fire anybody over that, but the natives would be restless.

Starting point is 00:18:25 But you've seen fan bases readjust their expectations, based on circumstance over long periods of time. And now, I get it, we're only in year two of the Bama existence without Saban. But I think that they had to have already, I think the mature thing and fanhood isn't mature and it's not rational. So nobody did this. But the rational thing would have been to readjust your expectations, the second Saban retired, let alone regardless of who they hired, that you're not going to do that again, probably.

Starting point is 00:18:53 But the one thing that I will say about Alabama fans is that they're certainly within their right to be pissed off that they've lost four times on ranked teams. Like what we're talking about in terms of their upper echelon success, like they're not even in the same galaxy as that world right now. So of course they should be upset, right? Like we're talking about losing to unranked teams right now. We're not talking about missing the playoff. We're not talking about not winning the national title.

Starting point is 00:19:18 We're like hoping that they don't go eight and four. That's completely unacceptable. It is. And we'll see what happens next. Also, speaking what happens next, when you're out of game, be careful who you decide to mock. Be careful who you decided to taunt. LSU did get the win at Clemson, but one LSU fan took a massive L. Producer River, please run that video.

Starting point is 00:19:47 No! So there he is shooting doublebirds at the Clemson fan who looks like a mild manner dude. Maybe he works in an office somewhere probably was a Navy SEAL based on what happened next. If you're just listening in podcast form, this Clemson fan, and this is not a super jack dude. This is not a guy who looks like a professional wrestler. This is a guy who looks like a normal dude as a daughter and a sorority there. Yeah, normal dude, khaki's in a polo, and he grabs this dude by his collar. and pins him up against the wall and the look of sheer terror on this LSU fan who realized he is effed around with the wrong person and found out is priceless.

Starting point is 00:20:41 So the next time you want to flip the double birds at somebody because your team scored a touchdown, just remember that person may be this guy. Are we sure that that LSU fan's not J.D. Pekyll? No, J.D. Pekyll's hair is much, much blonder, much more pure blonde than that guy. That guy's son in. That almost happened to me one time at a blackjack table in Vegas. Somebody stayed on 16 against the 10, and, you know, I said, why don't you just give them your whole wallet instead of your chip stack? And the guy almost, like, knocked my head off my shoulders. I'm actually shocked that you haven't been knocked out by someone who got tired of you talking to them.

Starting point is 00:21:20 I just have learned to play blackjack alone. I can't play at the same table as other people. If you stay on. You probably shouldn't do a lot of things near other people. I think that's a good rule. But it is crazy to think, though, that like you never really quite know who you're messing with. No. You never know who's ready to pop that off.

Starting point is 00:21:38 Well, and that, like, exactly, exactly. It's like the Instagram photos where there's a picture of a lightweight UFC champion and some bodybuilder. And like, who's more likely to kick your ass? It's always the guy who's not the bodybuilder because bodybuilders are stiff and can't move. This dude, the quickness, the quickness is what's shocking. It's like, you know,

Starting point is 00:22:01 when you see a 350-pound defensive line, then they can move, it's the quickness. It's so funny because it is literally less than a second where he goes from having the birds in that guy's face to like being pinned against the wall. Like, it's so fast. And good for you.

Starting point is 00:22:19 Also, the amount of lift this guy gets. This dude is, the LSU fan is off the ground at this point. He is, he is in midair. I just think that like people who go out of their way to be disresigned with others, but like the beginning of the video. This is, this is the, these are the types of videos I send you all the time. Arii thinks I love fight videos. I do not love fight videos.

Starting point is 00:22:45 I love when jerks get their comeuppance. That's what I love. like the the double bird like he was like bent over like with his knees bent and he did the double bird and like that by itself if you freeze it right there like that's really funny like it's just like it's a funny thing to look at right oh man I wish we could see the end of the video I wonder what happened at the end I want to know what happened the 10 minutes before had these two interacted at all yeah maybe they did I don't know but who cares yeah Beautiful. Absolutely beautiful.

Starting point is 00:23:21 You know what else is beautiful? Madelo. We are sponsored by Madelo. College football season upon us. And college football season is Madelo season. In fact, as I watch TCU and North Carolina tonight, I may go Madelo. I may go Madelo Degra. I don't know. I have not decided yet, but one of those medellos is getting cracked as I watched Chapel

Starting point is 00:23:47 Bill make his debut. grab yourself a medello and stay game day ready all season long cold crisp refreshing there is nothing better all right it's time to make some picks this slate is is interesting this is one of those i think at the tv networks were actually as in control as we say they are uh they would have moved some stuff around but some very intriguing games and we'll start off with one that you and I circled quite a, quite a ways back because we penciled in Illinois as a team in the Big Ten that could potentially make the college football playoff. When Duke got Darien Mentsa, let's go back to the beginning of the transfer portal.

Starting point is 00:24:36 Remember when Malik Murphy jumped in the transfer portal day one after starting at Duke, throwing a bunch of touchdowns? They won nine games. We're like, oh, the starting quarterbacks in the transfer portal. Well, if you saw Malik Murphy arguing with his coach at Oregon State the other night, and he saw Dary and Mintsa play at Tulane last year. Now you understand what was going on. But you got Illinois led by Luke Altmeier.

Starting point is 00:24:57 They looked fantastic in game one. You got Duke. Took them a minute to get going in game one, but then they ran away with it. Ari, Duke is a three-point dog at home. Who he got? Before we get into this pick, I just want to say that this slate looks like it sucks.

Starting point is 00:25:18 which means that Saturday's show is going to be electric. Exactly. Something crazy is going to happen. Something's going to happen. There's no such thing as a bad college football Saturday. And we circle this game, as you said, as one of the sneaky, good, non-conference games of the year. And it happens at noon, the entire country, hopefully you'll be watching and give it the credence that it deserves. I talked to an NFL scout a few weeks ago who actually coincidentally texted me that I'm an idiot for picking Oklahoma to make the playoff in my bold

Starting point is 00:25:50 my bold off-season predictions, which I think we might get into later in the show, and we picked the game of the week. And we got to talking, and he said that Illinois was one of the three most impressive teams physically that he saw in the off-season.

Starting point is 00:26:07 And I think that the Illinois hype train has finally left the station. They looked very good in their season opener. I am terrified. And I think that based on this line, that we are undervaluing Duke in a big way. This is a team that won nine games last year, a team that returned a lot of important pieces and got better at quarterback.

Starting point is 00:26:31 And by the way, I don't know if you saw this. You see Malik Murphy have a complete meltdown on the sideline. I just mentioned that, are you? You're not listening to what I say? I don't know. Like, sometimes I think like I need to go see a doctor about like a variety of different things. Because I've been listening to everything you said and that did not land. Andy my guts here saying Duke man well saying Duke because everyone's going to be on

Starting point is 00:26:56 Illinois we were texting back and forth like Elon's hanging in with Duke and it's a one you know one possession game in the third quarter now Duke did pull away but yeah this feels like one of those oh yeah team of the new quarterback kind of took a minute to get rolling yeah I this is this is interesting and Duke is Duke's not shying away from people this this pre-conference schedule because they've got Illinois this week and they got Tulane after that and look how handsome Manny Diaz looks

Starting point is 00:27:25 in that photo. Holy crap. That's a nice head of lettuce there. Yeah, that rivals you. So, it might be better. Very good coaching matchup here. Mani did a very good job at Duke in year one last year. Brett Bilema obviously is doing great

Starting point is 00:27:38 at Illinois. This is, I don't have a read on this because I really don't know what Duke is yet. like this is the first of a couple times I'll bring up last year South Carolina Kentucky game because I remember last year South Carolina was really shaky in a season opener and we're like ooh I just don't know about these guys and they were double digit underdogs at Kentucky and we didn't know what

Starting point is 00:28:08 Lenora Sellers was yet and it was it was strange but and then they come out and just clobber Kentucky. I don't think that's what it's going to happen here. I don't think Duke's going to clobber Illinois, but I don't think Duke is going to look as shaky as it looked early on against Elon. I think that part gets ironed out, and now you get the full strength of these teams. If you're going to give me points,

Starting point is 00:28:32 I kind of like Duke, but Illinois looked like it was firing on all cylinders. And you go back to the bowl game where that Illinois, South Carolina, both teams were kind of full strength, Both teams certainly cared about winning the game. And Illinois was pretty much wire to wire in that thing. So I don't know. I think I'm still going to take Illinois here.

Starting point is 00:28:56 Yeah, I think that the, and I knew you would. And I feel like it's hard to not. And that's the reason I'm going to pick Duke. They're at home. Illinois is the open and shut. they're going to win team in this game. And I feel like anytime we think that way, it's a lot harder than we thought it would be.

Starting point is 00:29:19 I don't think it's open and shut. But I also think Brett Bealham is the kind of coach that does not let his team feel that way. I don't think he's going to let his team walk into this game at Wallace Wade Stadium and say, oh, we're just going to roll over them because they're Duke. I don't think that's going to have. Plus, I don't think anybody should feel that way,

Starting point is 00:29:41 given how good Duke is Dow, given how good the player they have a quarterback is. Yeah. I think that we are the first to do picks every week. People tend to do them at the end of the week, which I think is kind of funny because the BetMGM lines move and we like to get out at front of it. And a lot of times what people say on Thursday is a little bit different on Monday based on how those lines move. But I feel like when you look around at the end of the week, you're going to see a lot of

Starting point is 00:30:08 Illinois. And for that reason, I'm going to pick Duke. All right. I got Illinois. Ari's got Duke. Hopefully I can gain a game on him. We will see. Next up, on our list, the SciHawk game.

Starting point is 00:30:27 Iowa, Iowa State, and Ari, I got to admit when I was watching the Iowa highlights, if we can call them that from their season opener. I my fear that my Mark Grinowski prediction, the bold prediction that Mark Grinowski will make Iowa a playoff contender this year. I'm scared, Ari. I don't know what. The guy won the Walter Payton Award at South Dakota State. It's the FCS equivalent of the Heisman.

Starting point is 00:30:57 I've seen videos even throwing the ball well. Like not, not the one five-yard out that everybody in Iowa went crazy after. the ones of him when he was in South Dakota State making great throws in games. Like, what is it when you walk into the practice field in Iowa City that makes you stop being able to do that? Yeah, we talked about overreactions to week one. This is me overreacting to week one. And like, I mean, I did too. I think like in the second, yeah, eight for 15 for 44 yards is, yeah, that's bad.

Starting point is 00:31:32 like they were playing albany the danes so i've been chomping at the bit is that the word chomping or chomping it would be chomping you could be champing at the bit you could be chomping at the bit the bit the bits in your mouth so you're probably chomping on it okay um but i think it's actually spelled an ap style with an a so i always confused me um to pick iowa in the spot and i knew i was going to pick Iowa in this spot before last week, and I'm not going to overreact to week one. I wonder if there is a two-week hangover for Iowa State. You saw what happened to Kansas State, right,

Starting point is 00:32:15 with the week after Farmageddon, they almost lost to South Dakota. And by almost lost, I mean, like, South Dakota State. Yeah, like last second touchdown to try to, or to take the lead there. And I think that Iowa State has looked very impressed. in this.

Starting point is 00:32:34 I'm sorry, Iowa State beat South Dakota. North Dakota, the Kansas State, now I'm blanking on who Kansas State almost lost to. I think it was North Dakota.

Starting point is 00:32:43 North Dakota, that's right, not North Dakota State, mind you. Yeah, North Dakota. Yeah, it's North Dakota. I wonder if it's going to catch up to them in a rivalry game.

Starting point is 00:32:51 Now, Iowa State's at home and they're laying three. This game always seems to be low scoring. It always seems to be the, you know, the epitome of what Big Ten West football used to look like. And I'm going to

Starting point is 00:33:02 the points here. I think that Iowa is probably better offensively than what we saw last week. They got the jitters out of their system. They got another week to prepare and build off of what they saw out there, which was not very good. But I think in a game that I have 20 total points scored, I'll take the three and then roll my dice with that. I mean, over under 41 and a half, I'll probably take the under there too. I'm going to take the quarterback and not the one I I was predicting, because I need to see Mark Grinowski do it at Iowa before I can believe again. But I've seen Rocco Beck do it over and over again. I love what you're doing here in trying to take the opposite side of every game that I'm doing.

Starting point is 00:33:46 Not trying to. You're either going to be way ahead or buried by the time this week has over. No, there are things that we'll agree on, but I don't, like, I didn't have a strong feeling on Duke, Illinois. other than I Illinois looked very good right out of the gate and Brett Bielman tends to be a very consistent coach so that's that's where I was there here Rocco Becked my biggest question going into the farm again game in Dublin was what are you going to do without Higgins and Noel because those guys were awesome and they could have completely falling apart offensively without them. But they didn't. And Rocko Becked, when he needed to,

Starting point is 00:34:37 could get you first downs with his legs. They got Carson Hansen going in the second half of that game. Abu Samas had great games in the past. Like, I think they could be kind of more like what you expect Iowa to be if Iowa had competent quarterback play. And so I think that's why i'm going with iowa state in this game yeah iowa has basically dominated the series and i'm already back to 2013 and i'm trying to figure out the last time they lost this game by more than three so i'm already at two thousand it's close yeah it's it's always close and like the last three times they lost the last four times now they lost was by three on the nose like every time they lose to them it's by three so i'll take the three even if they lose we'll push um but this game

Starting point is 00:35:29 I'm back at 2007 now. They have not lost. They lost it to Iowa State by two in 2007. 2006, they won. I mean, they're like... 2005, Iowa State won 23 to 3. That's the one you're looking for. It's been 20 years since Iowa has lost this game by more than three,

Starting point is 00:35:48 and I think they've only lost four or five times since. So, you know, I think that you are smart in that, you know, I would take Rocco Beck, who I believe is maybe one of the most under-report appreciated quarterbacks in all of college football, but I'm going to buy the European hangover, and I'm going to take Iowa, and I think maybe even outright to win the game, but I'm going to take the three to be safe

Starting point is 00:36:11 because I want to win this competition with you. All right. I got the Cyclones. You should not let me down. You should get an extra half point if you pick a money line. Like I want to give you another half point for picking Miami Money Line the other way. For Miami Money Line, that's a good question. Yeah, we should

Starting point is 00:36:30 There should be something that you get extra Or maybe a tiebreaker Like whoever gets more money lines It wins the tiebreaker If that can be our tiebreaker I mean you do get my words of affirmation That was a good pick I appreciate that

Starting point is 00:36:44 Yeah, that was awesome I needed that That would have been really bad If Notre Dame had come back And won that game And you were three games ahead of me Yeah It's okay

Starting point is 00:36:53 There's plenty of time for me to blow you out But you know, it was a good It was a good pick. All right. Before we get to our next game, I'm going to tell you about game time. The place to get your college football tickets. Download the game time app.

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Starting point is 00:38:04 than when companies add on all these crazy fees at the end of something. Oh, by the way, here's this. Yeah. GameTime's not going to do that to you. And like prohibit that from everyone, like hotel like resort fees and hidden fees on your cell phone bill and all these different ways that we get nickeled and dined as consumers in this world. I appreciate game time for not doing that

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Starting point is 00:38:35 the price you see on game time is the price you get code staples $20 off your first purchase terms apply all right let us go closer to your home actually very close to your home Baylor

Starting point is 00:38:48 coming off the loss to Auburn headed to SMU SMU is a three-point favorite at home. The more interesting piece of this particular line is the over-under is 65 and a half. They're thinking shoot-out in this game. Yeah, this game is being played three miles from my house. Maybe I'll stop by. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:39:15 You should. Just swing by and say hello. Yeah. Um, Baylor scared me a little bit on Friday night, Andy. And I recognize that SMU is going to attack Baylor in a much different way than Auburn did, but their defense scared me. What, what do you take away from their game against Auburn? Is there anything moving forward for you, uh, you know, in picking this?

Starting point is 00:39:42 I take a way that I, I would run right down their throats until they stopped me. I would hand off until they stop me. Yeah. I assume that the over-under is what it is because that's probably not going to be SMU's game plan. But, you know, if it works that way, then great. But, man. I think Red Lashley's smart enough to win the way you need to win. Obviously, he's got Kevin Jennings.

Starting point is 00:40:07 He knows he's got a quarterback who can light it up. The thing is, Auburn, which we think has a decent defense, we think personnel-wise, their defense has a lot of talent. Baylor did move the ball really well on them. They did. Yeah, Michael Trigg was nearly impossible for Auburn to cover. So I think this number might be close to right. I think 65 and a half might be a pretty good number for this game.

Starting point is 00:40:35 I don't know if I'm willing to take the over, but I do think this could be a pretty high-scoring affair. Yeah. Do you think that we ignored SMU in the offseason a little bit? I do. I do. And I think Red Lashley has taught us since he's been there that that's where he likes to be. He likes us underestimating them.

Starting point is 00:41:00 He also likes to remind us when we do, too, though. So I don't know how much. Oh, yeah. But this is a solid program. You know, look, they did lose a lot from their defense that they had to replace. East Texas A&M probably didn't tell us much about what they are now. So I think maybe I do want to take the over on this one because I don't know what SMU's defense is going to look like.

Starting point is 00:41:25 Yeah, I mean a 38, 31, 38, 35 game always seems to be the result. A lot of times SMU matches up with the big 12 team, especially one that likes to air it out as much as Baylor did. But I cannot get out of my head. Baylor's defensive line getting abused the way it did in Auburn. And I understand, or against Auburn in Waco, I understand that SMU probably isn't as big and strong, you know,

Starting point is 00:41:51 up front as Auburn, because Auburn bullies people. But I would try it. I would try it. And, you know, look, remember Rhett Lashley is a Gus Malzon disciple. We saw what Gus did for Florida State against Alabama, where they just ran the ball. Like, Gus only, only threw the ball 14 times.

Starting point is 00:42:10 against Alabama. Ret Lashley learned everything he knows from Gus. Rhett Lashley, if he's in a position where he can run it down your throat and win it that way, we'll do that. He has no qualms about it. Yeah. That's my question with taking the over because I think Rett will try that because he watched it work. And if that does work, it is the surest way to win a game. Well, I will tell you one thing. If it does work, your over is cooked.

Starting point is 00:42:40 So I feel like that's why that's why I'm hesitant to touch the number just because I do think he'll try that. If it doesn't work, he obviously has plenty of tricks in the bag to go to. He has Kevin Jennings. He can let him sling it around. And then they're over's in play. But that's the part I'm interested to see. Does he just come out and try to run it down their throats because that's what Auburn did. And it would, I mean, it worked.

Starting point is 00:43:08 like Q Freeze did not abandon that. He kept doing it. Baylor couldn't do anything about it. I would try it. If I'm every Baylor opponent this season to try that until they stop it. You know what I love about SMU that their entire plan as a program is to recruit the hell out of Texas and do their best to get players who get tired of being away from home to come back home in the portal a year or two later? A lot of times very good players, but like they do that to like Miami recruits. And, you know, Rhett Lashley's, you know, past stop at Miami.

Starting point is 00:43:43 And, like, their number one receiver target, Romelo Brinson is a Miami transfer. And he's a really good player and led them last week. I'm high on SMU's ability to compete at a high level in the ACCC. I think they have a shot of running the ball down Baylor's throat. And like you said, if they don't, I still think they'll be able to put points up on the board. I'm more certain of SMU's total package as a team right now than I am Baylor. after last week. I'm going to lay the points for SMU at home.

Starting point is 00:44:12 I am also going to take SMU. See, I'm not just going to go against you every time. I have too much faith in Rhett Lashley as a coach in the situation where the path has been shown to him, and I suspect he's going to take advantage of that. Which I hate this. I don't want this to happen for Baylor because I think Baylor is actually not bad. It's just if you have one glaring weakness, people are going to try to exploit. it. But they are going to have to

Starting point is 00:44:41 be there. If you were a football coach, if you had and you had to pick, one of your units is going to have a glaring weakness. What would you pick? Oh, uh, probably linebackers. I'd pick linebackers or running back. Yeah. Yeah. Second levels. Offensive line would be the, the worst one. But defensive line is a close second.

Starting point is 00:45:07 Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So, yeah, I, I just, that's why it's so hard for me to pick Baylor in this game because they, they showed a weakness there. Before we get to Ole Miss in Kentucky, which is a fascinating game, I want to tell everybody about Panini, Ari's favorite sponsor. He's got cards all over that office that he's in right now. He's got nukes of plenty, incredible products.

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Starting point is 00:46:03 We're still fun to have. For instance, like I have a Sam Bradford Auto sitting right here. Remember Sam Bradford? I remember Sam Bradford. We're going to talk Oklahoma later. I got a Julian Sayan prison break right here. Julian Sayan, of course, made his first start for Ohio State, and he won against Archmanning.

Starting point is 00:46:22 So how about that? Jim Harbaugh, Orange, out of 2024 Prism Deca in his Chargers uniform, that's number to 49. And I got this one in the mail today. Let me go get it real quick. It's right here. My favorite thing about going out of town and returning to town is, like, my wife rolling her eyes at me as she hands me all the packages that came for me

Starting point is 00:46:41 while I was gone and there were like 50 of them. This is a cracked ice Marvin Harrison contenders optic rookie card numbered 22. I got it to PSA and it got an 8 and I'm disappointed about that. But, you know, maybe we'll crack it and try again. Beautiful card. This is my my obsession and I've been talking to the guys at Panini. I'm like, hey, but send the product because we haven't gotten any yet. They've done it to me. But I'd love to, you know, They're going to send it to you. You're buying plenty. It's true. Why would they send it to me?

Starting point is 00:47:12 I'm already wasting, not wasting, using 50% of my check on it. Exactly. My wife would say wasting, but she doesn't get it. That's exactly right. You understand. So go to Panini, America.net, start your collection today. Ari, let us go to Lexington, Kentucky, where the home team is a 10-point dog against Ole Miss.

Starting point is 00:47:35 An Ole Miss team it beat last year, by the way. There's so many weird subplots going on here, Ari, because this is exactly the spot last year where Kentucky was a nine and a half point favorite against South Carolina. And I want to bring up some video from last year. So we picked this game last year. Both of us picked South Carolina. Neither one of us thought South Carolina was going to win. We just thought the line looked weird, that it was nine and a half. and we didn't think Kentucky was really that much better,

Starting point is 00:48:07 even though South Carolina had been so much shaky in the opener. Play the video, producer. Like, I think that Kentucky is probably going to win the game. I like Kentucky to win it. I don't know if they're going to win by double digits. Yeah, the only reason I'm taking South Carolina is that spread is so high. I do think Kentucky's going to win this. I like their playmakers.

Starting point is 00:48:28 I like the offense they've built around Brock Vandergriff. I think it's going to be a lot of fun to watch these guys this year. And they also strike me as a team that can beat somebody down the road where you're not expecting it. It's just that I really struggle with when you've got conference opponents that have fairly similar talent levels and you have one favor by almost double digits. This is almost an automatic pick for me. And it was an automatic pick. so and and they made big blue nation furious they were so mad at us for picking south carolina in that game south Carolina ended up destroying kentucky but you know if you listen to

Starting point is 00:49:13 what i said forget the part about them being fun on offense i was wrong about that but that they would beat somebody that they're not supposed to well old miss was the team they beat that they were not supposed to they went to oxford and beat old miss and if if old miss wins that game old miss would have made the playoff like yeah this was a weird weird, weird game last year. And the fact that Kentucky's favored by 10 feels like a giant, or I'm sorry, that Ole Miss is favored by 10 on the road, feels like a giant red flag.

Starting point is 00:49:45 Yeah. What would you have guessed it would have been? I would have guessed like seven or seven and a half. Really? Yes. They lost to this team last year. Brad White, the defensive coordinator, seems to have a good handle on how to, how to play this offense. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:50:09 Kentucky does not stink on defense. They might on offense. Yeah, this is an automatic lay 10. This isn't even a thought for me. Really? Oh, yeah. No, I, I'm checking that MGM right now to see if that's, if my eyes are tricking me. What do you think this spread should be?

Starting point is 00:50:30 I would have thought it would be 14 and a half or something, 15. I just don't think it can be because it's such a, this was so weird last year. Like, I don't know. I'm actually looking at Tyler Shoemaker's numbers, the spreads and the data that, you know, looked at and his projected spread is 16. So, you know, do what you want with that information, Andy.

Starting point is 00:50:57 I shouldn't have told you that, but I'm laying the point. I mean, I don't know, by the way, we didn't talk about this, but before the Ole Miss game over the weekend when they were playing Georgia State, a player got their chain snatched and a Georgia State player through the chain. I don't, did you see the video? I didn't see the video for that, no. Okay. And then.

Starting point is 00:51:14 It seems like the sort of thing, like throwing the double birds at that Clemson fan. It'll get you pinned against the wall. Well, Austin Simmons, that for the game posted an Instagram that was like 15 pictures deep of him, like, walking in and playing in the game as they won. And the 13th or 14th picture of like 15 pictures was just the guy's headshot on ESPN from his player page with no comment on it. Just like that guy's name was Tyler Scott, who threw the chain. I mean, if you are buying Ole Miss is a real good, real deal, if you're buying Austin Simmons, if you're buying that Lane Kiffin is going to be able to score, you know, after with what we saw against Toledo,

Starting point is 00:51:56 like there was a pretty sloppy game at home. I know Mark Stoops is motivated, man. They're not going to be within 10 here. This might be my favorite play of the week. Ari, they were this good on offense last year, and Brad White shut him down. I think that them losing last year makes it harder for them to do it again.

Starting point is 00:52:12 Like, I don't think that last year makes me feel like that Ole Miss will be on alert, you know? I don't know. I don't know. Maybe I'm full of crap. Let me lay the 10. What do you think? I'm going to take all this. into consideration, and I'm going to take Ole Miss to cover.

Starting point is 00:52:33 I'm not telling you Tyler's data anymore. OK, dokey, doke to you on that one? Were you going to take Ole Miss the whole time? Yes. Okay. But I was going to point all that stuff out because it is weird, and it is not actually as easy as it appears to take Ole Miss to cover in this game. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:52:53 If Ole Miss does not cover in this game, I have a new found outlook. on Kentucky season. Because I actually think Ole Miss is going to be a very good football team this year. Like, I'm very, we were high on them. And I'm like my biggest. Right. We're high on Austin Simmons. We think they're going to be good.

Starting point is 00:53:08 You can't tell much from the Georgia State game. Like Georgia State added T.J. Finley as a quarterback today. After. Is he starting? Probably. Incredible. If you look at the stat line of the guys they played. I got to tell you, just so you know, as somebody who got tagged in the rival

Starting point is 00:53:28 transfer portal tweet for T.J. Finley today. Nothing fires up the crowd more than T.J. Finley transferring to a new place. Have you seen like people were doing Google Maps of like the six stops? This is place number six. There's six stops and they're like all like go back and forth. Neither one Ole Miss or Kentucky, by the way, which, you know, you think one of them would have made the cut. Somebody tweeted T.J. Finley later in life.

Starting point is 00:53:55 Yeah, I played D1 ball. The person says where. and then T.J. Finley, everywhere. That's exactly right. Now, I want to see Austin Simmons against an SEC defense other than the one drive we saw against Georgia, which was awesome, but I'd like to see a whole game of it. Excited to see that this week. Again, I hope Kentucky makes this interesting. I hope Kentucky makes this, you know, like the Georgia game last year where they were very close or the Ole Miss last year where they won.

Starting point is 00:54:23 But I didn't see a lot in the Toledo game. that suggested to me that they're going to go beat Ole Miss. But again, I didn't see anything in the South Carolina game last year that suggested they were going to beat Ole Miss, and then they did. So we'll see. But the one thing you said, and I agree with, because they beat Ole Miss last year, because Ole Miss lost these guys at home,

Starting point is 00:54:47 there's enough players, like I know Ole Miss uses the transfer portal a lot, but there's enough players who are on that Ole Miss team who know exactly what that loss to Kentucky cost them. who will be very motivated. You like my choice of words there? I did, yes. Very motivated. All right, let us move on.

Starting point is 00:55:13 Our next game is a renewal of an old Big 8 and Big 12 rivalry, and really the rivalry dates back to, well, your American history class. Kansas, Missouri, these two, were bitter rivals, blood feud on the border. And now it is time for them to renew it. We saw Bo Perbula make his Missouri debut Thursday night. Obviously, Central Arkansas did not put up a huge fight. But going into that game, the thought was, is it going to be Bo Perbula? They're going to play Horn a little bit. Is one guy, the guy? And then Horn got hurt on his first play,

Starting point is 00:55:54 and it's definitely Perbula now. So there's no doubt about that. Bo Perbuella is the guy. Their five-star freshman Zollers got in there at the end. But it's Bo Pervula against Jalen Daniels. Jalen Daniels has looked fantastic in two games so far. Remember, Kansas did play Fresno State in Week Zero. So he's got two games under his belt.

Starting point is 00:56:16 I'm pumped for this quarterback matchup. I'm pumped for this matchup in general because you have a sleeper in the SEC that's been very consistent. have a team that, you know, I think people forgot about after a slow start last year that might actually be pretty electric. You know, Kansas has been lighting up the scoreboard again, and Jalen Daniels looks like peak Jalen Daniels at the moment. And like, I just, I wonder if we're underestimating Kansas. I've been wondering this for two weeks, and we're going to find out the definitive answer

Starting point is 00:56:47 on Saturday for sure. Which way are you leaning on this one, Andy? This is a hard one for me because I really, I really like what Kansas is doing this year. But I also feel like as good a coach as Lance Leipold is, I don't think we've really given Eli Drinkwitz enough credit for the job he's done at Missouri. I think Missouri is a much harder job than people realize. I always say that as the years pass, I appreciate what Gary Pinkle did more and more.

Starting point is 00:57:17 But Eli Drinkwitz has turned Missouri into a program where you kind of expect them to win nine or ten games. in the SEC, like, granted, they probably got the best draw, them or Texas of some of these SEC teams, but it's still a hard schedule, generally speaking, and now they're going and playing Kansas at a conference. Like, they're playing South Carolina. They're playing Alabama. They're playing Auburn. They're playing Texas A and then. They're playing Oklahoma.

Starting point is 00:57:47 Like, this is not an easy schedule, yet would we be the least bit shocked if Missouri wins nine or ten. games against the schedule we would not no i have been doing a lot of thinking uh because now once we get to actually see some teams i know half the games were uh you know meaningful in the other half it was hard to analyze but i'm trying to come up with sneaky college football playoff contenders now and i wonder uh if missou is one both of these teams are both of these teams are but missu for a different reason because they have a good hard schedule on the surface for helmets, but they're not playing a game now, right, you know, as I look at it, they 1,000 percent cannot win.

Starting point is 00:58:32 Like, now that we have a different viewpoint of what Alabama is, like if they're able to go 10 and 2 and beat Bama, then they lose to Auburn and Oklahoma or something, but they beat Alabama, Kansas, and A&M, that's a playoff resume. And that's, you know, getting there without having to play Texas or having to play Georgia. And in that scenario, they also would have beaten South Carolina in the one you just laid out. Those would be good quality wins. but there wouldn't be any giant there. There's no, okay, so Missouri might not be favored in all of those games,

Starting point is 00:59:02 but Missouri's a one, Missouri's within one touchdown. If we're making lines for all these games, Missouri's within one touchdown of everybody on this schedule, if not favored. For sure, for sure. And it's a, I think it, without offending people, could be a fake good SEC schedule at the end of the year. We'll see how it plays out. South Carolina turned it on in the second half of the game that we were at yesterday.

Starting point is 00:59:27 You know how I feel about Auburn, Oklahoma. We're going to find out about Saturday. A&M is still a mystery to me. But, you know, none of these teams are Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Alabama isn't what we thought they were going to be. I think we can definitively say at this point. So they have a chance to look super impressive, even if what they're doing when we kind of find out all the results of the end of the year might not be.

Starting point is 00:59:48 And that's like the perfect candidate to get in attendance too. So I'm on high alert for Missouri. that said, I'm picking Kansas to cover in the game. Ooh, there you go. I wish it was seven. I will point out one of my favorite players in the country is in this game. Daniel Highshot, Kansas, he's a running back. He's a 220-pound running back.

Starting point is 01:00:07 And it's fun when you watch him run the ball. It's much more fun when you watch and block people. There are highlight reels. There are cut-ups of him just mashing people, either as a lead blocker or when he's picking up blitzers in pass protection. there's nothing more fun than watching this guy just tattoo somebody. So I want to point that out if you're going to watch this game. But this will be, I think, a pretty high-scoring game and also just a fun game.

Starting point is 01:00:41 Like, there are going to be some spectacular plays. And I think there's probably going to be some dumb plays. Yeah. This is the game where casual, this is the weekend where casuals might not. get excited because you don't have Clemson, LSU on the schedule, but real college football fans get excited for games like this. I can't waste. I think Kansas is a shot to win the game, but I'm taking the points.

Starting point is 01:01:02 All right. So you are taking Kansas with almost a touchdown, which I don't blame you for. I'm going to take Missouri here. I think Eli Drinkwitz has something going there. And as much as I like Kansas and as much as I do think Kansas is a potential big 12 title contender, I think this Missouri team could be really good. And especially now, you know, this will be the first week they go in there knowing, hey, this is our QB1.

Starting point is 01:01:31 We're building this offense around Bo Perbula. And we're going to see what we can do with it. This is a true dual threat. He had a vanilla Vic moment too. So I don't know if you saw that. I mean, that's what he was at Penn State. No, but this one was the only way they used him at Penn State. Yeah, we actually seen this before.

Starting point is 01:01:51 remember Will Levis leaves Penn State after being used in that way and becomes a starter at Kentucky and winds up being very good. Now, I'd say Per Buella got to do more at Penn State than Levis did because remember Per Buella had to go into the Wisconsin game last year when Drew Aller got hurt and basically lead the offense for the second half and did it fine. Like helped him win the game and it was it was not a game that they were just rolling Wisconsin. He had to be good in that game.

Starting point is 01:02:21 So I am very excited for these quarterbacks because is it possible already that we see a game where both quarterbacks throw for $200 and run for $100? I think it's possible. I want to watch that game. I want to watch that. And look, that may be the one we're all locked in on at that point. I think this afternoon slate, it's one of those that I'm not sure. where we're going to be. This is the one.

Starting point is 01:02:53 I think we're all going to be locked in on. We're all going to be tweeting about. And we're all going to be like, oh, man, both these teams are fun to watch. But, yeah, I will take Missouri to cover. I realize that's a lot of points. But I got faith in Eli Drenkowitz. Ari, let us go to the town where I am. So we did a game three miles from your house.

Starting point is 01:03:14 Let's do one five miles from my house. USF at Florida. I believe this line. opened at Florida minus 19 and is now down to Florida minus 17 and a half. USF was awesome against Boise State in week one. If you didn't know about Byron Brown before, or if you remembered Byron, if you've forgotten about Byron Brown,

Starting point is 01:03:37 2003 version, because he got hurt in 2024 and was not really ever himself, you remember him now. He's big. He's very tough to tackle. And when he's running like that, it opens up their passing game. I don't want to overreact to the positive because South Florida beat the crap out of Boise and the entire country was watching.

Starting point is 01:04:00 Byron Brown was electric and a very good runner. There's going to be a different caliber of athlete on the field when he's playing Florida. And he was, I thought, deficient at times throwing the football. I am very high on Florida's ability to, you know, compete for potentially the SEC championship. and I just don't see how USF is as competitive as people are going to make them out to be. We're doing the Byron Brown overreaction this week, and I'm not going to take the bait on that. Well, and I'm giving you that bait for a reason. The Florida fans came out of that game against Long Island not as happy with DJ Lagway as they usually are

Starting point is 01:04:41 because he wasn't super sharp in that game. The highlight of that game was an incredible one-handed catch by Vernal Brown. the third, but there wasn't anything that just blew you away from Lagway's performance against a very overmatched opponent. And so I think everybody's just kind of waiting to see what's he going to look like when he plays a team with a little more talent. USF is a team with a little more talent. And remember, after this, Florida is at LSU and at Miami. So whatever kinks they got to work out, they got to work them out right now. Like it has to be pretty. much perfect after this week. So I want to see what Florida looks like when they are playing a team

Starting point is 01:05:26 that they feel like can challenge them. And how does Lagway look? Because remember, what was the concern and the criticisms with Lagway dealing with all the nagging injuries, not being able to throw in the spring, not being able to work out with the team as much as you wanted to in the preseason? Will he be ready? Will be conditioned? Will the chemistry be there that you need? now would be the time to show that. Yeah. I'm not going to be upset over the first four drives or whatever it was against Long Island. No, it might not mean anything.

Starting point is 01:06:02 Yeah, I'm going to lay the points here. I think Florida's got a very good defense. Their line is the scrimmage are going to be unlike anything that, you know, USF is going to encounter again. I know that some people think that USF is a trendy. USF's going to counter a very good line of scrimmage next week as well when they play Miami. That's true. Oh, yeah, you get what I'm saying.

Starting point is 01:06:21 This isn't something that they're going to encounter very often when they're playing in their league. I think that it's not something they've encountered yet with Boise. It's going to be a different type of ball game. I'm going to lay the 17 and a half. The sharps are hitting USF. Maybe they know something we don't, but. 19 is a weird number. Yeah, 19 is a weird number.

Starting point is 01:06:42 I'll take Florida to cover as well. I think probably they're probably. they're playing a team in Long Island that they had no business playing. Everybody was a little bit out of sorts. I think they lock in this time. I think they cover this spread. Next up, Ari.

Starting point is 01:07:03 Vanderbilt Virginia Tech. We just saw Virginia Tech in person yesterday. Virginia Tech put up a much better fight against South Carolina than we expected. I thought their defense played really well. I thought Kyron Drones is a very tough quarterback to bring down who throws a beautiful deep ball who will occasionally throw in a triple and maybe quadruple coverage. Yeah, and miss open receivers at times. It's like he's just like

Starting point is 01:07:26 the Anthony Richardson, right? Comparison where it's just like super athletic freak. Not sure he's like a proficient football player, you know, but there are certain times. Although Dylan Stewart chasing you does affect that a lot. Yeah, but that wasn't my first time watching him play either. So, you know, like I think everybody's been waiting three or four years to the light to turn on for this guy and figure it out. And I think that Virginia Tech played a much more physical, aggressive game than you would have anticipated going into that South Carolina game. And in fact, you know, had multiple opportunities, in my opinion, to actually win that game and could have won that game, which I think is an important thing to say. But coming off of that

Starting point is 01:08:08 uh that emotional you know beamer bowl type situation you know laying it out there and giving it 110 percent and falling short i think vanderbilt is a sneaky not so sneaky good team anymore um and i'll take the quarterback advantage that vanderbill has i'm going to take the the vanderbill here and i i'm shocked virginia tech's favorite in this game i think i think that's an overreaction to what we saw yesterday yeah um you know i don't want to bite off more than we can chew with Andy, you know, because last year was fun. And last year, you know, they, they proved that they can compete in the SEC. And I think that competing with Virginia Tech in the way that Virginia Tech played against South Carolina would be like a hard-nosed SEC-type game.

Starting point is 01:08:54 I don't think that it's not going to be physical. But I think that Virginia Tech is more probably prone to making some back-breaking mistakes. And I think Diego Pavia is an electric player that will get the job done and knows how to win games on the road. I'll take the point or or Vanderbill outright. Producer River's like, this is a night game in Blacksburg. Okay, so you're going to get a Metallica concert beforehand. Great.

Starting point is 01:09:17 Do you think that's going to bother Diego Pavia? He might do the air. That's not going to bother Diego Pavia. You might do the air guitar. Exactly. Exactly. That's the guy that you want in that situation. So, yeah, I probably was prepared to take Vanderbilt minus three.

Starting point is 01:09:36 but if you're going to give me Vanderbilt plus one, yeah, I'll take Vanderbilt. Yeah. All right. Let's go start Vegas. Viva, Stark Vegas. Arizona State at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is a touchdown underdog at home

Starting point is 01:09:57 against the defending Big 12 champs. Sam Levitt coming in against a Mississippi State defense that looked improved against Southern Miss. The Southern Miss game was a little dicey for a minute, but they pulled away. So where are we at on Mississippi State as the Sun Devils come to town? I mean, we're resentful right now for what happened with the Southern game.

Starting point is 01:10:26 How are we doing? We aren't doing great. You know, I have a we as in you. Yeah, we. Southern Mississippi. We, my family is. less well off as we were as a result of that. Mississippi State played a more complete and better game

Starting point is 01:10:41 than I think people thought Arizona State is dealing with so much success at once hangover. But I still think that Arizona State, they've got to be able to win this game by seven, right? Do they? I don't know. This is a night game in Starkville. The cowbells will be clanging.

Starting point is 01:11:01 Clanga, clanga, clanga, clanga, clanga, clanga. Never seen a game there. So you tell me, is that an intimidating? I'll go into some games there now. Yeah. Because at the Auburn game where they beat them and then moved to number one in the polls the following week in 2014, that was a magical atmosphere. Yeah, when things get going in Starkville, it is a fun place to see a game.

Starting point is 01:11:21 Not necessarily a fun place to be the opponent in a game like that. So, you know, it's going to be a question of how does Mississippi State's defense, affect Sam Levitt. So Raylon Braxton at Southern Miss, who was the defending, I believe does the defending Sunbelt offensive player of the year, he only averaged five yards in attempt against this Mississippi State defense. Sam Levitt's a 10 yards per attempt type quarterback. Yeah, I mean, and Jordan Tyson's one of the best receivers in college football. So he's going to get open. He's going to make plays. You know, I know that it's probably not any SEC game or any SEC road game is difficult. And I know that that's not a short ways away from

Starting point is 01:12:05 10p, but I think Arizona State will probably win this game around 10. I'll lay the points on the road and feel comfortable with it. Give me the Bulldogs to cover. I still think Arizona State might win. But I'll take, if you're going to give me a whole touchdown, I'll take Mississippi State. I think they put up a good fight at home. I really, you know, so far Mississippi State has played hard for Jeff Leby. Their roster last year was clearly deficient. They went in the portal. They had some money to spend versus last year

Starting point is 01:12:37 where they really didn't have a lot of money to spend. I think they're going to be more talented this year. I think they can hang. I don't know if they can win it, but I think they can hang. So give me Mississippi State to cover the seven. All right. Now we're going to the big one.

Starting point is 01:12:52 Ooh, boy. Oh, boy. Michigan. heading to Norman, Oklahoma. We have John Meteer, the most sought-after quarterback in the transfer portal this year. He went from Washington State to Oklahoma following offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. We have Bryce Underwood, who is the most sought-after high school sinee quarterback in the class of 2025. He was a day-one starter as a true freshman at Michigan, which that doesn't happen very often.

Starting point is 01:13:22 We saw Underwood have a good debut against New Mexico State. We saw Mateer look very good in Oklahoma season opener. Or did I say New Mexico against New Mexico? We saw a mature look good in Oklahoma season opener. There were some line issues with Oklahoma, but they weren't playing with what they thought was going to be their starting five, and it looks like they will be this week. So now you get Oklahoma favored by six and a half with Michigan coming to town.

Starting point is 01:13:53 You know, I've been calling Oklahoma is going to win this game since the middle of the summer. And I still believe that. And that line scares you, doesn't it? It's too many points, I think. I think, especially if it gets to seven. Michigan is a team that's going to be really difficult to block and very tough defensively. I think that, you know, if Oklahoma does have some holes, if their offensive line needs a month to get into the groove of things,

Starting point is 01:14:23 that Michigan is the type of team that can make you pay for it. And I know that John Mateer is awesome. He had a really high completion percentage. He threw for a ton of yards. But if you ask Oklahoma fans, there are probably a lot of them aren't very amped up by what they saw the other night. So, you know, I'm not backing off of my Oklahoma has a chance to make the playoff. I think that it is going to be an interesting, fun season for them.

Starting point is 01:14:49 Having them win by a touchdown is a little much for me in week two. I think they're going to win. I don't think they're going to cover. Well, and that's what I wonder is if we get the full Oklahoma offensive line, like what it's supposed to look like, is it going to be significantly different? I mean, we're talking about two guys coming back. Michael Fasusi's one, the true freshman tackle that everybody was very excited about seeing. Derek Simmons is the other one.

Starting point is 01:15:19 Fasusi is true freshman left tackle. first game out of the gate is going to be against Michigan is going to be like Derek Moore like Derek Moore is the guy who blew up the last play of the Rose Bowl to make Nick Saban lose his last game at Alabama. That's who you're going against as a true freshman starting your first game. Like that is a wild, wild matchup. But he's also apparently very good. He wouldn't be in this position if he wasn't ready. And so I'm so excited for this. I'm so excited to see Bryce Underwood against Brent Venable's defense, Brent Venable's defense, known for confusing even veteran quarterbacks. So how is a true freshman going to handle a picture that's going to

Starting point is 01:16:06 change for him quite a bit from pre-snap to post-snap? Is he going to make mistakes? Is he going to throw interceptions that are going to hurt him that are going to allow him to have better field position. They're going to allow a message to get to get quick points, quick momentum changes. Like that's the part that is very interesting. I excuse me, allow Oklahoma to get quick points and quick momentum changes. That's the part I'm curious about because, you know, this is a, this is a good Oklahoma defense. I don't expect Michigan to be able to score a lot. Michigan, on the other hand, is going to have to stop John Mateer, who he is not new to this.

Starting point is 01:16:50 started all last year at Washington State. Now, has he faced competition like this before? No, not really. Yeah, and that's the thing for me. There are reasons to think that Oklahoma could roll. There's reasons to think that Michigan can win. I'm going to take the wuss way out. I'm going to take the points. I think this is going to be a physical low scoring game. I do think that Oklahoma is going to get the Bryce Underwood. I think that it's going to be hard for Michigan to score as well. but I think that this is going to be the type of game that's in question in the third quarter, early fourth quarter, and I'll be happy to have that touchdown or cloak the touchdown. So this is the one where the legend of Bryce Underwood can take off.

Starting point is 01:17:29 For sure. This is the one where if you think he's or the legend of John Mateer, exactly. But it's different from a tier. If it's Oklahoma's defense confusing Underwood, you know, they get a pick six or they, you know, get a couple possessions where they're basically in the red zone already and punch them in. If Michigan is to win, Bryce Underwood's probably going to have to march them down the field a couple times. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:17:58 And that is going to be the stuff of legend if it happens, no one is going to be too down if it doesn't happen. It's understandable. If he goes in there and he doesn't have the best game, it's your first start on the road. it's your first start against a, you know, power conference defense, it's going to be understandable. Yep, yeah. I like the way you handled this.

Starting point is 01:18:26 It is a lot of points. The more and more I think about a true freshman going against a Brent Venable's defense, the more I think, you know what, it may be mature time. Yeah. Dionne Berks from Michigan. And he said earlier, you know, in the last few days that the best players at home are from Michigan stay at home and go to Michigan. And he said he wasn't recruited by Michigan, that it's personal for him.

Starting point is 01:18:52 Dionne Burks is a really good receiver. You know, you start to hear things like that. That's exciting. And, you know, if the spread was like two and a half or three, which I was anticipating, I probably would lay the points. But, you know, there's, there's a real likelihood here that Michigan blows up the entire game from their defensive line. Like, I've seen this happen.

Starting point is 01:19:10 And they've, I've seen it happen a lot, you know, especially against teams that you think are going to beat them, seven points, six and a half points is a lot. So I'm just going to, you know, we'll see if I try to be right with both. I'll thread the needle for the middle here. Oklahoma wins, Michigan covers. This is not what I expected that I'd be doing. But the more I talk about it, and I've been talking myself into this, probably for the better part of the weekend.

Starting point is 01:19:36 but if you'd ask me six months ago I would not have said like if you told me what this line would be six months ago I said there's no way I'm taking Oklahoma to cover but I've talked myself into it I will take Oklahoma to cover and and mostly this is like falling in love with them is easy this year like I'm not even falling in love with them I am I am just trying to use a little common sense based on what I've seen so far this season with first-time starters in these big environments and veteran quarterbacks in these big environments, the veteran quarterbacks have consistently outplayed the first-time starters. And a first-time starter against a defense that we know to be incredibly confusing, I feel like that's a tough spot for Bryce Underwood to be in. And John Mateer has been here before. Granted, he's playing against a Wing-Martindale defense

Starting point is 01:20:32 that'll come after you and that has a bunch of really good players. But he has the experience. So if the first weekend taught me anything, it is the experience at QB does matter. So I will take Oklahoma to cover. Yeah, can't wait. Game of the week. Two programs that don't play each other very often.

Starting point is 01:20:53 It's going to be a really cool spectacle there. And Lord help, Brent Venables, if they lose this game. Don't lose it. Don't, don't. And Bryce Underwood, then I'll might not be enough if they win this game. As good as it is, it might not be enough because you may be the dude for a long time at Michigan. Or John Mateer may be headed to folk hero status.

Starting point is 01:21:17 That's the best part about games like this is legends are made in games like this. I cannot wait. Saturday night in Norman, Michigan, Oklahoma. That's why we do this. Cannot wait. Ari, this has been a lot of fun. our picks and our spreads, of course, presented by BEDMGM. We'll see how those lines move.

Starting point is 01:21:42 We may have to come back to some of these later in the week, but of course we have a show every day. So you come back here. 3 p.m. Eastern Time on the On3 Sports YouTube channel every day, Monday through Thursday. And then, of course, we have the post game show on Saturday, 11.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Thank you so much for joining us, and we will talk to you tomorrow. Thank you.

Andy & Ari On3 - Week two COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS; Michigan-Oklahoma, Kansas-Missouri and MORE

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