Andy & Ari On3 - Were we WRONG about Bill Belichick and North Carolina? Tar Heels beat TCU in Ireland

Episode Date: August 29, 2026

North Carolina came to Ireland as a more-than-a-touchdown underdog and left with a 15-10 win against TCU.   QB Billy Edwards Jr. looked very comfortable in Bobby Petrino's offense, and the Tar Heels shut down Harvard transfer Jaden Craig and TCU's offense for the final three quarters.   Could year two for Bill Belichick be significantly better than year one?   Our show is presented by Polymarket!   New User Offer: Deposit $10, get $20 upon sign up   https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/ON3   Trade on College Football games every week on Polymarket. Download the Polymarket App with code ON3 for a $20 bonus upon sign up.   18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirement apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur.   Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/join   Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtube.com/live/STpHxjnOlF0   Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's Andy and Ari on three presented by Polly Market. College football is back. And me and Ari were wrong. We both picked TCU to cover in Ireland against North Carolina, but Bill Belichick's team takes a 15 to 10 win against TCU in Dublin. The defense shuts the horn frogs down for the final three quarters. The offense does just enough. Billy Edwards looks pretty comfortable on some pretty money downs.

Were we wrong about. Bill Belichick in North Carolina. We'll talk about it all today on a very special episode of Andy and Arion 3 presented by Polly Market. We are sponsored by Polly Market, the world's largest prediction market, and it is going to be fun for college football season because the markets change as the games change. The markets look pretty similar to what you're used to. There's going to be point spreads. There's going to be who's going to win, who's not going to win. You take a position, yes or no, is this team going to win?

Yes or no. Is this team going to win by three and a half points? And the difference is you can change that position as the game goes on, as the season goes on if it's a future. And it's a lot of fun. You see how everybody else has decided to stake out their positions. You can chat with them. You can talk trash in the chat. It's a lot of fun.

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Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by Polymarket and Ari. We are one game into the FBS version of the college football season and we're already freaking wrong. We're back, dude. We've already blew up. We're back.

I don't know what to tell you. We're back. Okay. So I spent the entire offseason thinking that North Carolina was going to be a clown show completely awful, just review of what happened,

or replay of what happened last year. Now, I was assigned and decided to write a column today. And I was, you know, prepared to write the Belichick experiment. Today or yesterday? I was assigned yesterday, but I was the person on duty to write after this game. And I had, and maybe it's my fault,

but I had a good portion of this column pre-written, which is the Belichick experiment should probably be over with. So maybe I'm the reason North Carolina won because nothing curses a team like me thinking something. But what do you think that this actually means? Because I have my thoughts. I don't know what it means yet because, well, for example, five of the last six Dublin games have been decided by a possession.

the only one that wasn't was Notre Dame Navy. So these games tend to be a little weird. It's just doubling. A little mucky. Like this was rainy. You had a snap over it. Because think about it, without the snap over the head that causes the safety for TCU, that probably changes the math on that fourth down at the end because you're going to kick the field goal to try to tie it 13 if you're not down 15, 10.

But that's it. I don't want to take credit away from North Carolina here because we've been, we've spent entire off season bagging on them. So I want to give them their flowers here because Billy Edwards Jr. looked really comfortable in that offense. Bobby Petrino's offense was certainly much more functional than Freddie Kitchens last year. They did use their playmakers as well. Like Jelani Thurman, the Ohio State transfer, they started off with a throw to him.

The TCU clearly wasn't ready for. But guess what? When they needed a big conversion at the end of the game, they slipped one out to him. they made it look easy. He is definitely going to be effective no matter who they're playing. So I think I'm not going to say this means they're going to be awesome and they're going to win, you know, nine games. I think they're going to be a lot more competitive than they were last year, which they'll need to be because their schedules a lot harder. Yeah.

You know, the thing is is that when you come with big ideas of what week zero results mean, you're often wrong by the end of September. So I don't want to do that, but I think what you said about North Carolina was absolutely correct. If you spend an entire offseason, hell, I mean, let's just call it what it is, man. Bill Belichick's entire existence in college football has been nothing but a sideshow mockery of his existence. Like, I still think there's plenty of questions about whether North Carolina ultimately will be successful under his leadership. But based on what happened on that field in Chapel Hill a year ago at this time, and based on the fact that they only beat two. two power opponents last year. They got blown out quite a bit,

although their defense, I think, did improve towards the end of the season last year. Like, I think that North Carolina fans should be, um, at least excited by the fact that they're not like an absolute joke. Like, I think that we could probably rule that out.

I thought that Edwards looked good. That tight end, that Ohio State transfer, Jolani Thurman's kind of a dog, you know, every time, I like their backs that, you know,

both, both backs for, for North Carolina, 511, 225 and 511, 2,30. like they run hard. Yeah, I realize Hall. I know Hall was dinged up at the end of the game.

I'm hoping he's okay. Because I love, like, I love the way he runs. So I do think there's a chance that they're more competitive this year. Again, they're going to need to be because the schedule is harder. That said, TCU, Jaden Craig, we had him on the show. Nice guy. When you've got the first down and you just got to run for it, don't throw it a double coverage. Like you're right there.

Like message board geniuses has already come out with a Harvard entrance exam that asks the question, if you have an obvious first down, if you just keep running, do you A throw into double coverage or B get the first down? So that's where we're at right now. Andy, I have, I'm kind of, I've rewatched that play and I'm rewatching it right now. Like I'm not sure it's 100% that he would have gotten to the sticks. Like there were guys right in his face. Well, I also think if he makes a better throw, that's a touchdown. The guy was there. Yeah, he could have made that throw.

I'm not going to be making any money bagging on some guy from Harvard's brain. Here's the thing. Billy Edwards Jr. looked much more comfortable. And look, we saw Billy Edwards Jr. at Maryland two years ago, and he was very effective. He got hurt in the first game for Wisconsin last year. He kept trying to come back. He did come back for one game. But, you know, we never got to see him really play at Wisconsin last year.

So we don't know where he's at, but he looked extremely comfortable in that offense. And I'd say the difference between Billy Edwards Jr. and J. Craig today is Billy Evers Jr. understood the speed of the game at this level, got the ball out quickly, knew when to fight another day, knew when to take yards with his legs. And Jaden Craig might be getting used to that. Yeah.

Because there was a moment in the fourth quarter where it felt like Jaden Craig was settling in and getting comfortable. Yeah. But it is a new speed of the game for him. It's not new for Billy Edwards. Well, you know, when you actually like look at the way that that game played out, Andy, like the pile of mistakes that TCU made was pretty high. You got the snap onto the head. You had that terrible unnecessary roughness penalty.

You had multiple turnovers on downs. Obviously, you can quibble about the execution of the final play that they had on offense, whether he should have thrown it or run it or the fact that the past was off the mark. Like these are the mistakes that I think that a lot of people were anticipating would be more of a hallmark of a less talented team like North Carolina. So from that standpoint, like Bill Belichick does deserve some credit because I thought that North Carolina in general, although talent wasn't oozing off the screen the entire game, played a more mistake-free, more competent.

Oh, definitely. T.C. you had that one set of downs on defense where they have a face mask, which is, you know, that happens. And then the next play, Edwards slips and falls and he's sacked. and the guy just creams him for no reason. So, like, that's the sort of thing TCU did all day. And North Carolina really did not do. North Carolina had a couple fumbles, but it was a wet ball.

Like, that's to be expected. North Carolina. And I think the way the game ended was really telling where TCU jumped and you see the North Carolina center just signaling first down. Like, they were the more disciplined team today. Yeah. So do you feel like any? remorse or nervousness about offseason scrutiny towards North Carolina at this point.

Do you feel differently? Because I'm not sure I do. I think they looked more competent than I thought they would. It doesn't mean I think they're going to win eight or nine games. But they definitely look more competent than I thought they would. Again, they're going to have to play Notre Dame. They're going to have to play Miami. They've got some tough games on this schedule.

They play East Tennessee State. couple weeks. Like, they should win that game. But then they play Clemson at Clemson. And Clemson severely out talented them last year. And it's Notre Dame Pitt, Duke. Like, that's not an easy stretch. But after what I saw today, I'm much more confident that they're going to be able to be in some of those games. Like, if this had looked like last year's CCU game had looked, I'd just assume they're going to lose them all. I don't necessarily assume that. They looked competent. And that's great. That is a drastic improvement. All right. So let's go through guys. Galaxy Brain Ari now, I want to talk to you about this.

When Mac Brown was let go and Bill Belichick was hired, the viewpoint was that they would be very good, or that they would, at least they thought in the building that they were going to go hire the greatest NFL coach of all time, the guy who won six Super Bowls had 33 wins in the NFL, who coached Tom Brady, all the things, and that they were going to be a team that was going to not just match what Mac Brown was able to do

with the early stages of a second stint in North Carolina, but that they would get past it. Was last year so awful that we have to analyze them with kid gloves? No, because it's college football and everything can change. The thing is, what of our criticisms have then been, that they didn't do the things they needed to do to make those changes? And I think we don't have enough sample size to find out if we were wrong on that. We were definitely wrong picking this game.

Yeah. Whether we were wrong on the overall global philosophy, we'll find out. We will find out. You just saw that schedule. Okay. So those four games after the East Tennessee State game, we'll find out. Like if they win a couple of those games or win one of those games even, then they're better than they were last year. Yeah.

Because I am kind of like interested, too, because of the age. And like my number one question with Bill Belichick's in the beginning of this whole thing, Andy, has been, why is he doing this? Like, what's the point of this? And I know that you're getting paid a lot of money. and I know that the NFL wasn't necessarily an option for him when he took this job. But at his age and his accomplishment, his stature, like, should have been, and I still stand by this, a first ballot Hall of Fame inductee.

Like, why are we doing this? So, like, if the answer to the question is, like, what you just said, which is, well, they're much better than they were last year, but they're still not very good. Like, are we doing a six-year-old? But I don't know if they're not very good. Yeah. We don't know. Yeah.

What is TCU? Like, TCU won nine games last year. Is TCU a nine-game winning team this year? We don't know. Yeah, we don't know. I didn't come away from that game thinking North Carolina is good. I came away from the game thinking that they are much better than I thought they were going to be. Obviously, they won the game.

But I was surprised by how they looked today in general. I liked Billy Edwards Jr. in Bobby Petrino's offense a lot. And Bobby called some plays. They did a good job. There were answers. And that's what mattered. Like there were no answers last year. When they got down with G.L. Lopez and Freddie Kitchis, like there were no answers.

There were answers this time. Billi Edwards on third down, on fourth down, looked comfortable, looked at home, understood when to get rid of the ball, understood what to do under pressure, understood when there's six yards to be gained, just tucking and running. He took them. It looked competent. I know I've used that word a bunch, but I'm going to keep using it. You know, I am a little bit embarrassed because I do this for a living.

and my buddy Andrew up the streets just hammering North Carolina money line. I got another friend who's hammering North Carolina money line. And I guess there's people who saw something that we didn't see. But, yeah. Well, if they looked at the trends on the Dublin game, we were stupid. Like, absolutely stupid. Like, it should have been an automatic take North Carolina to cover based on the trends of the doubling game. Because everybody was on TCU today, everybody.

Yeah, because when we picked it, it was TCU by seven and a half. the time the game kicked off, it was TC but nine and a half. Yeah. So, you know, I don't think there were a lot of people that were, you know, privy to this result. But I think that this is just another reminder too, Andy, of, you know, how unpredictable this stuff is. And like as much, you know, like the thing that's so funny to me is my number one gripe with fans in the off season is only using what happened last year to analyze what moves forward, right? Like everything that just happened last year doesn't mean it's just going to happen again. And in this.

specific instance, I might have fallen victim to that a little bit myself. But at the same time, I still, like, really hadn't heard of a lot of players in their team. So, like, I, you know, my number one thing is always, what have you done from a build standpoint in the off season to make me believe something is going to be different? And I'm not sure I saw that, especially considering the train wreck that happened with Michael Lombardi and, you know, what happened with him in the administrative leave in July. Like, there weren't a lot of, like, things to feel good about coming into today. So, you know, maybe there is, like, this 10% Bill Belichick magic that can continue. And, you know, it's just if you are going to pile on somebody the way that I did all

offseason, you do have to give flowers when they're successful. He was successful today. They probably went about as well as it could have, right? Yeah. Can we ask the question Frontier Man 4 asked? We can ask it nicer than Frontier Man 4 did, but I'll ask it the way he asked it. Or is DCU Hot Garbage. Well, let's just back up a little bit.

Hot garbage is a bit strong. We didn't. Again, small sample size. We didn't cover. TCU didn't come into this game like tap dancing. Like they had some issues. They had to dismiss a transfer for a locker room altercation. There was probably their most important defensive loss in Bud Clark. You know, we alluded to it, but we haven't like gone into it.

Like I am wondering too, like was TCU just off kilter? Because they looked like unprepared to play. But that doesn't affect their offense. And obviously their offense is new. Yeah. And early on it looked like. that that wide zone stuff that that gordon samis has brought from yukon is going to be good and jeremy pain is going to run well in it i thought he played well to adjust it well to that didn't you

think pain ran went really well today i thought he was really good he ran really well last year too and they they didn't have a great running game last year but he was good so you know i think that it's an interesting philosophical shift that sunny dykes has chosen to make and if it doesn't work the blame for that is going to fall squarely on sunny dykes. So again, first game, we don't know where this goes. But if that is going to be a TCU style, if they're going to be like a wide zone team that's run the stretch a lot, and Jaden Craig is not, like he's got to adjust the speed of the game again.

He's got to get the ball out because he seems to be holding it a beat too long. If that's what it's going to be, you're looking at a lot of games that probably look like today. whether TCU wins or loses. I'm talking about the final score. You're looking at lower scoring games where you're going to grind it out, play good defense, make less mistakes.

If you're going to play this style, you cannot make as many mistakes as they made today. Yeah, I mean, it was a lot of mistakes, Andy. Like, they looked completely off-kilter today. I get it. It was kind of rainy. They're overseas or in Ireland. You know, I don't know.

But, you know, I felt like TCU had ample opportunity to win that game all the way down to the end. And had the stamp knock on over ahead or a pass thrown more accurately that maybe they would have, but that's not the way that these games work. No, but they were the less disciplined

and they deserved to lose. Exactly. North Carolina was much more disciplined. They earned the win. Yeah. 100%. So we were wrong. Won't be the first time this season.

Definitely won't be the last. I mean, it is appropriate. I mean, it was the first time the season because it was the first opportunity to be wrong. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's appropriate. We are wrong. But I also never feel bad about being wrong in a situation where everybody kind of had the same analysis. I didn't, you know, you sent me a column from somebody who wrote that North Carolina is going to stun some people this year. Like, that's not, you know, well, the problem is where we screwed up is not paying attention to history. We should have

paid attention to history. The Dublin game tends to, the weather, is fairly similar to the weather in the last few, the score tends to be lower. The score tends to be close. Like, we should have noted that. Like, the fact that it was more than a possession favorite for any, for either team should have been something that set off an alarm for us and it didn't. So that's our fault.

We screwed that out. Yeah. Yeah. But I think that it is also interesting, too, that like, we don't just, you know, it would have been kind of annoying if we would have been completely right. North Carolina would have lost by 35 again. And then like it would have just been a footnote on the season.

Like I am kind of bought into Belichick watch a little bit. This is more fun. This is the more fun outcome here. Yeah. Because we are going to be watching now. And remember, they have an open date before they play East Tennessee State. So we're not going to see them play Clemson for a little while.

Yeah. That's going to be a little while before that happens. But it's going to be week three. So same week as LSU Ole Miss. But we'll get a lot better idea once we see them against that level of competition. But look, I would be excited if I were a North Carolina fan because a lot of the things that were wrong about last year's team looked better. Yeah. I mean, last year, if you're a North Carolina fan, you literally hit the peak of your season after the first drive of the season opener.

Like, that was the best that it was going to get for you all year. So the fact of you. They beat Syracuse and the lacrosse player on a Friday night. That was fun. Yeah. The season was over at that point. Like that was like, wasn't that October? Like November?

I remember I was like Halloween. It was Halloween. All right. So, Ari, we got the rest of week zero. USC is currently playing San Jose State. NC State is currently playing Virginia. Later, we're going to see New Mexico State, Florida State, Hawaii, Stanford. We got Memphis, UNLB tonight.

I don't know any of these games are going to necessitate us going live. If we have to go live, it's because something really weird happened. Florida State is just sitting there. Oh, stop it. Stop it. They're 31.5 point favorite, so I don't know that's the case. Although I am watching over here to my right, that San Jose State, down 14-0 to USC, is on the edge of the red zone.

So who knows? Edge of the red zone. But it is probably not going to necessitate any live action today, but you can bet your sweetest to be waiting for it. That's a great sign. And just, you know, stay tuned to us on social media. We'll let you know. But thank you for watching.

Be sure to subscribe to the On 3 YouTube page. We're going live after the games on set. When week one begins next week, we'll be live after the games at 11.30 p.m. Eastern Time breaking it down. We also have a show Monday through Thursday, 3 p.m. Eastern time breaking down everything in the college football world from the field to to the courthouse. But less courthouse now. Less courthouse, please. Yeah. Because we got games. Yeah. Let's go. We'll talk to you soon.