Andy & Ari On3 - Which programs NEED to win a national title most? | Why is the spring transfer portal so tame?

Episode Date: April 18, 2024

It’s a Dear Andy show, but first, a transfer portal update.We’ve got a player of consequence alert at Louisville. Meanwhile, a few quarterbacks jumped in Wednesday.(0:00-5:30) Intro - Spring Transfer Portal(5:31-6:46) Dear Andy Intro(6:47-13:35) Why the underwhelming spring portal cycle?(13:36-36:59) Which teams NEED to win a national title?(37:00-48:59) Deion's Recruiting Strategy(49:00-53:49) Number of wins or Strength of Schedule?(53:50-56:21) Scholarship Limits?(56:22-59:53) NCAA's rules on tampering/contacting players(59:54-1:03:28) Matt's Detailed Realignment Proposal(1:03:29-1:10:42) Interest in College Football as a whole(1:10:43-1:11:26) ConclusionNext, it’s time to answer your questions…Why is the spring portal window less lively than (some people) advertised?Which programs need to win a national title the most?Are Deion Sanders’ sons better recruiters than Coach Prime himself?Which will be more important to the College Football Playoff selection committee — wins or strength of schedule?Plus much more…Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube or Twitter (@Andy_Staples) and join us LIVE from 8-9 am et https://youtube.com/live/amHDpFDxJ48

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. It is a Dear Andy edition. We answer your questions. Also, I made Colorado Twitter mad Wednesday night. Very mad. We will get to that part because we have a really interesting Colorado question to Dear Andy, plus a really interesting tweet from Colorado's athletic director on Wednesday night. So we'll talk about all of that when we get into the Dear Andy portion of the proceedings.

But before we do that, a little Transfer Portal update for you. Transfer Portal is open, as we have discussed at length this week. But to this point, we haven't seen a ton of players who were going to probably impact their teams leaving. Mention Colorado. They've had a lot of guys leave. They've not necessarily been a lot of guys that made a big impact on the field last year or were expected to make a huge impact on the field this year. But now you're seeing a couple things happening. A couple people trickle in where it's possible they were supposed to start, and now they're looking elsewhere. The one from Wednesday that stuck out was Jalen Alderman, the linebacker at Louisville.

He's a starter. He's a returning starter. He played well last season, and he told Hayes Fawcett from on three that he's planning on entering the transfer portal. Now his name was not in as of Wednesday night. So again, we've seen situations like this before where somebody may say they're going to go in and they don't go in, but that was an interesting one. You don't, you just haven't seen a lot of that since this portal window open, perhaps you'll see more as more spring practices come to a close,

but that one stuck out. That also dovetails with Penny Boone, who was the 2023 MAAC Offensive Player of the Year at Toledo. He's a running back. He had transferred to Louisville. He's entered the portal as well. Watch Louisville, because Louisville was very active in the transfer portal this offseason they got some players that a lot of other teams really

wanted and I think that the Cardinals are going to be better this year than they were last year I don't know if that necessarily reflects in the record because their schedule is going to be harder than it was last year but that is worth watching because when you have players who should make an impact staying there going in, that's a warning sign. Ryan in the chat, at this point, I feel like the bigger news should be who is not entering the transfer portal. I understand many talks. I can't blame any young person who transfers from Alabama, but I don't have to like it. Well, the thing is, and we'll talk about this, the collectives, the schools, they've gotten more sophisticated about how they evaluate their own rosters. And for the most part, your bigger schools are not letting guys go that they plan to need.

That's how this works. You know, some programs kind of, there was some experimentations to figure out, okay, how does this really work? But you look at the places that have used the transfer portal really well, like Florida State's a great example of this. They know exactly who they need as soon as the season ends. Who do we need to keep?

Who do we prioritize? Retention over what you take out of the portal. That's what matters if you have a good roster already. And so your Alabamas, your Georgias, like if you see somebody leaving there for the most part, for the most part, it's somebody who was looking for playing time because they figured out how to retain the people that they really want to keep. Now, Alabama lost Caleb Downs. They really wanted to keep Caleb Downs, but that's pretty much it from those two rosters that we've seen somebody leave who they wanted to have be part of their team next year. All right. A couple updates on folks who already entered the transfer portal. Pete Nacos from on three reporting that Keandre Lambert Smith,

the former Penn state receiver has scheduled visits with Texas A&M and Auburn. Now Auburn is trying to upgrade at the receiver position. You saw Hugh freeze talk about that, how big of an area of need it was. They got a big transfer from Florida Atlantic. They've got a freshman in Cam Coleman that everybody's excited about. That would make sense if Lambert Smith were to wind up on the planes. Hayes Fawcett from On3 reporting that pit edge Dayon Haynes will visit USC in Colorado Haynes. Another one of those players that we talked about definitely was in the plans played very well. Last season was a,

was a starter last season. USC obviously needs to upgrade on the defensive line. Colorado needs to upgrade on the defensive line. So we will see where he winds up, but that is pretty much it. That's it. There's not a lot of players who are supposed to be starters, who are supposed to be very important players on their team next year

that are in the portal right now. We will see if there's more. Because, again, there's a lot of teams still finishing up spring practice. We'll get a little more clarity on that as the next couple of weeks go by, but that's where they're at right now. Let's go to Dear Andy, because we have a ton of good questions, including one where our viewer, Matt, who's a Georgia fan, has solved realignment. He solved it. I asked for people to send me their spreadsheets because i figured if somebody's going to pay six figures to a consultant to create a spreadsheet like the one we saw on the pitch deck yesterday with all the different divisions for the potential super

league that that was basically doa because the tv networks were like nah we're not we're not doing this but if they're gonna pay people six figures for that, I've had people sending me those for free for years. So we're going to talk about that. We are going to talk about Colorado. As I said, I made Colorado Twitter mad last night, making Colorado Twitter mad, not really the same thing as making like Vol Twitter mad or FSU twitter mad uh colorado folks they're new at this they don't they don't quite understand how all this works so uh but we'll talk about that and also a really great question about what programs need need emphasis on that word not want need to win a national title sometime soon.

But we're going to start with Pepe. And Pepe asks, why is the spring portal window not as exciting as everyone said it would be? Well, not everyone said that. I remind you, we had Pete Nacos on here the last couple weeks telling you, it's not going to be the complete wild, wild west. It's not going to be crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. Now, Pete also said it could be a slow burn because again, teams are finishing up their spring practices. We don't know exactly yet all of the depth chart decisions that are to be made. So there's still a chance that you could see some more players of consequence enter the portal, but it is not as robust as it was advertised that it would be in some places. There's a good reason for that. Like I was just

saying, schools and collectives have gotten a lot better about figuring out who they need to retain. So they make the deal, they know what the market rate is. They pay the market rate. And the player goes, oh, I'm making market rate here. I've been successful here. I don't have to move. Sounds awesome. That's where it's going. Markets tend to flow toward efficiency. And this is a completely unregulated market. So lots of laws of supply and demand and that sort of thing working here. The old invisible hand is at work here. And the markets tend to move toward efficiency as quickly as possible. And I think that's what you're seeing is that they've figured out, okay, these are the players we need to keep.

Here's the amount of money we have. This is what it costs for a running back. This is what it costs for an edge rusher. And they make those decisions in December. Now you're going to see some people renegotiate because they can, but a lot of people don't want to renegotiate three, four, five times. One, it's annoying. Two, people think you're a little bit ungrateful at that point.

Three, if you're happy where you are, you just stay. And I think schools have figured out how to make most of the players that they want to keep very happy. But I will say that the reason this was advertised as a wild and crazy transfer portal window, and it made sense to advertise it this way, and it made sense that it might be this way, was because the transfer rules changed. Now, the NCAA officially began the process of changing them yesterday, and I believe as of end of business on Thursday, they will be officially changed so that undergrads can transfer as many times as they want and play immediately as long as they're in good academic standing. That's not a new situation, though. a federal court in West Virginia issued an injunction that basically invalidated the NCAA's transfer rules, said they violate the Sherman Act in December. So that's been the

state of things since December. Everybody's known that this was coming. Everybody's known that you could, even if you hopped in the transfer portal in the December window and went somewhere, you could hop somewhere again in this window. Now, the one thing I do think is having an effect, and this is a rule that I get asked about quite a bit, is that SEC rule that says you can't transfer in the spring window and then play immediately at another SEC school. So if you're at an SEC school now, you can't transfer within the SEC and play this season. And I think that rule is having a cooling effect on everything.

And the SEC folks have kicked around the idea in the past year or so of repealing that rule because they asked themselves, okay, are we putting ourselves at a competitive disadvantage by not allowing this and i think they keep coming back to the competitive any competitive disadvantage is outweighed by the calmness of not having to deal with all this roster movement because a lot of sec players only want to play in the SEC. And maybe they might move if they can go to a Michigan or USC or somewhere like that. But if they can't, if they're not in the mix for a school like that, I don't think they're going anywhere. So I think that has somewhat of an effect on this as well. But I really think it's more that just the process has become more sophisticated. This is a new thing.

Remember, the transfer rules only changed in 2021. NIL came in in 2021. This is all very new. And everybody's just kind of figuring it out. And I think people have figured it out in general. There will still be isolated cases, I think, where somebody comes in and says, you know what? I think I can get a much better deal. I think I'm being undervalued here. Or they've gone through spring practice. There was a coaching change. They don't like the new scheme. They want to go play somewhere else. You're going to see that with starters, but it's going to be fairly rare. The question is, is there going to be a starting quarterback at the group of five level? This would be like a tamper special. This would be bigger program needs starting quarterback now, tampers like crazy, and starting quarterback goes in the portal with intent to go to a bigger program that has been tampering. That's really, really about it.

So look, selfishly, it would be great for this show if the portal were more wild, but for the sanity of your particular team's coach, it's probably great that it's not. And also, I think realistically, most players want to move in December and then go through spring practice, have a full off season with the new team, learn the scheme, figure out where they're at,

figure out where they fit. That all makes more sense. So it may heat up a little bit more, again, as teams finish offspring practice, but it just may not. It may be that this is going to be a fairly tame situation. And again, for your favorite college football coach, they're probably very thankful for that. Great question here from Eric. I actually think I may write a column about this later too, because

this really got me thinking. Eric asks, now that my Wolverines have won a national title, which historic programs and their fans need a national title most? I'm thinking of factors that should include, but not be limited to one length of drought to somewhat sustained success. So that a national title is within the realm of possibility. Three rabid fan base. My teams in mind are USC, Florida, Tennessee, Penn state, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Miami, and Texas.

You'd even throw Ohio state, Florida state and Auburn in there. Maybe top tier, Ohio state, Texas, Oklahoma, second tier Florida State, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Penn State. I don't think USC or Miami cares enough and Nebraska hasn't been good enough, question mark. So this is a great question. And it got me thinking about who needs to win a national title? Who can actually realistically think about winning a national title?

And who is in a good place right now. So like Eric mentioned Florida State. Like I don't think Florida State needs to win a national title right now. Like I don't think that would fill a hole in the fan base's hearts or anything like that. These guys know that their team won a national title in 2013. It hasn't been that long. If you are in your 30s, well, let's say if you're in your late 30s, early 40s, you remember multiple Florida State national titles. So I don't think that is one of those where they're just desperate, clamoring, need it to validate the program. I think they look at the program and how much it's improved

and they don't have to feel that way. They also understand after the previous few years before Mike Norvell got them out of the hole, that it's not that easy. And they appreciate probably the 2013 title, the 99 title, the 93 title, even more. I think Florida's in that boat too. I think Florida fans, I'm very critical of their expectations. I've always said they expect too much. They got too much success too fast and didn't quite understand how to handle that. But I think now that they've been riding the roller coaster

for a while, I think they understand how hard it was to win those national titles. And they had three in pretty rapid succession, 96, 06, 08. So that's another situation where you've got people who remember winning a national title. I don't know that they necessarily need it to fill a hole in the psyche of the fan base. They would love to be good and competitive again. But I think like if you asked most Florida people right now, they would take just being good and competitive right now because they've been mediocre the last couple of years. I don't know that it gets better this year. We'll see. But I think if you said, what do you want? Obviously everybody wants a national title, but I think they'd be happy with good and competitive.

I don't think they need a national title. Miami, I think same kind of boat. Like they, they would prefer being consistently competitive first Auburn. They've won it so recently. They won one in 2010. They played for it again in 2013. And nobody understands the roller coaster better than an Auburn fan. Like they get, there's some wild drops and there's some crazy, crazy rises. This is not a linear progression here. So I don't think they need it at Auburn. Nebraska, they would just be happy going to a bowl game right now. I think the picture that gets painted of Nebraska fans as pining for the 90s and saying the 90s are going to be bad, I don't think they feel that way. I think they're

very realistic in general as a group, as a whole. And I think they understand being relatively competitive in the Big Ten is the goal. I don't think they need a national title. So who does need a national title? I made a list. And again, I think I may do this in written form as well later this week, because this is one, I think you're, there, there going to be some, you vehemently disagree with. I think you, there'll be a bunch of these where you're not in your head, but the one that I think needs it most is the one that given the list I just gave you, shouldn't be on this list.

But like you listen to the rhetoric coming out of the program, you look at the situation they're in right now, and it feels like they need it more than anybody. And that's Ohio State. Ohio State last won a national title in 2014. Ohio State played for the national title in 2020. If a field goal at midnight on New Year's Eve goes in in the Peach Bowl two years ago, Ohio State has a very recent national championship because they would have beaten TCU in the national title game. But that didn't happen. What they have is a three-game losing streak to Michigan and a bunch of almost there but not quite dating back to 2015 when they probably had the most

talented team in the country but didn't make the playoff because they lost to Michigan State psychologically yeah they need this and then when you got Ryan Day standing on the 50 yard line of the spring game going the season is about beating a team up north and winning a national title. Like that is, that's something a fan says. That's not something the head coach usually says. So they're all in on this thing. And then you look at the roster. It is deep.

It is old. They have then bolstered the deepness and the oldness by adding more talent out of the transfer portal. They're as set up as they've been. I cannot remember a team recently that felt this national title or bust. I think 2009 Florida maybe. They were coming off a national title or bust. I think 2009 Florida, maybe? They were coming off a national title in 2008. Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes, a bunch of good players came back. They did lose a lot of good players too,

and that came back to haunt them in the SEC championship game. But that season was just an absolute slog. Every game they were supposed to win by 50. If they didn't win by 50, it was a crushing disappointment. And then you had the SEC championship game. That's the one Urban Meyer had to go to an emergency room when they got back to Gainesville because he was having medical issues. And a lot of it probably stress-induced because that season was just misery for everybody involved. And what's crazy is if

there'd been a college football playoff, they probably would have been in it, even the four team. They definitely would have been in the 12 team. And that team might've still won the national title because the Alabama team that beat them was good. The Texas team that Alabama ended up playing was really good. But I don't know that they were appreciably better than that Florida team. In a rematch, Florida might have been able to beat Alabama. 2015 Ohio State's the other one I could think of that felt this national title or bust. And I remember when they lost to Michigan State just felt so combustible. I covered the Michigan game the following week and that was, you know, Zeke Elliott had just

gone off after the Michigan State game. Everybody was sort of in a not great place because they knew it. They were so talented and they knew that Michigan State was going to block them from the playoff because Michigan State was going to go on and win the Big Ten. They were going to make the playoff. In a 12-team playoff system, that Ohio State team probably wins the 2015 national title. So maybe we're not talking about this, but they didn't. And now Ohio State's in this situation where they've lost three in a row to Michigan., that has a huge impact on this too. Like if Ohio State beats Michigan one of those three years, I don't think the psychological weight

is sitting on them the way it is now. It's not sitting on Ryan Day the way it is now. But it feels like they got to win one. Here's another one. Oregon. Oregon's the only one on this list that I made that has never won a national title. And Oregon has been the common, the most common answer to the question that you

often get. And this is a, I've gotten this mailbag question every off season for the last like 10 years, who will be the next first time national champion the last first time national champion was florida in 1996 it's been that long since somebody broke into the club oregon feels like the team that can break into the club but they haven't done it yet they played for the national title twice since 2010 but they haven't broken through and dan Lanning inherited a really good situation when he got the job, but they have not lived up to their potential yet under Dan Lanning. I think they can. Obviously, he's a very young coach. We always talk about Kirby Smart and where he was in year two, year three as a head coach, how different he is now after six, seven, eight years as a head coach. But Oregon had the most talented team in the Pac-12 last year. They lost to Washington twice. One time because they couldn't execute

on fourth down. One time because they got physically dominated in the fourth quarter. That has to get fixed. Now they're not the most talented team in their league, but they are one of the most talented teams in their league. they are one of the most talented teams in their league. Oregon has been recruiting at a level that it should be able to compete with anyone. And so, this could be the year, next year could be the year. This is, this feels like if you keep recruiting at this level, you keep pushing, Dan Lanning evolves as a head coach, learns, learn some

things as he gets more experience that they eventually break through. But that's one. They felt like they've been there, really been in the mix for the last almost 15 years. They haven't quite been able to break through. Here's another one, and this one is just, it's a mystifying one, Texas A&M. Texas A&M's last national title was 1939. The Aggies just have not been able to get over the hump and it hasn't mattered. Like they should have been consistently in the national title mix. Like Oklahoma, for example, last won a national title in 2000, but played for it a couple of times, was in the playoff. That's the type of program Texas A&M should be, but has never been. It doesn't matter what conference they're in, it seems. Southwest Conference, Big 12, SEC, doesn't matter. They can't seem to break through into regular contention. And it doesn't make a lot of sense because they have the location,

they have the passionate fan base, they have the money. They have everything they need. It's just never quite come together. And so they threw a lot of money at Jimbo Fisher with the expectation that it would come together and it didn't. And that's just, because at that point when they hired him, it was like, okay, if this doesn't work, what's going to work? Well, now you try again. You got Mike Elko, who I thought did a really great job at Duke in two years. And actually, I think we'll do a better job than Jimbo Fisher did at Texas A&M. You've got a pretty decent talent base. So nobody's expecting Mike Elko to win the national title this year at Texas A&M. But if he can build on the recruiting that Jimbo Fisher was doing and then coach the team better on the field, A&M should be competitive in the SEC, should be able to reach national title contention. But again, we've been saying that for like 60 years.

So I don't know. I really don't know how that works, but that's a program that really, really needs one. We'll stay in the state of Texas and I guess we'll also stay in the sec. I've got Texas on this list too. And they're in a much better place than most of the teams on this list and relative to being able to get there. Like Texas could win the national title this year. I think that's an entirely realistic possibility, but I think the reason I feel like they have to win one and it may sound silly, but just to retire the Texas is back joke. Like we can't say Texas is back until they win a national title, right?

Is that fair? But I think they need to retire that joke. It's just like the Georgia people needed to get that 1980 joke retired, and then they did, and now it's gone, and they never think about that again i think texas winning a national title here in the next few years would allow that joke to be retired and i think you know we talked about it with bobby burton yesterday on the show texas is doing the

things they need to do to make this happen. They're creating NFL players again. They've managed NIL and the transfer portal very well. Like a couple of years ago, they were throwing money at some people who used to be five-star recruits. They come in, they didn't add much to the team. Like, but you look at what they added last year, you look at what they've added this year, very strategic in the portal. They kept what they needed to keep and then spot recruited in the

portal to replace very specific needs. Like you lose a Jatavian Sanders, get an Amari Nye Black. That feels like a one-for-one substitution right there. That's a big, big move. They didn't throw money at a lot of people in the transfer portal. They went and got what they needed. Ryan, who's an Alabama fan, says they upped their competition and they're going to suffer the consequences in Austin Tech. I said, hey, Ryan, didn't Texas and Alabama play a game last year in Tuscaloosa? How did the game work out? I'm just saying. It feels like they're pretty prepared for this. Maybe I'm wrong, but they feel like they've prepared for this. So I'm putting Texas on this list just to retire that joke.

I'm also putting Oklahoma on this list. Now, Oklahoma's last national title was 2000, 24 years ago. That's a long-ass time, especially for a program that has been in the mix for national title contention quite a bit. Played for it in 2004, played for it in 2008. But here's what I will say about Oklahoma. Since the early 2010s, Oklahoma has not had what it is needed on the line of scrimmage to be legitimately competitive for the national title. And you saw that when Oklahoma got in the playoff against Clemson, against LSU, you saw where the deficiencies were.

Like Barry Switzer was sounding the alarm about this in 2013. When you start by their D line, he's like, where's the Gerald McCoy? Where's the Tommy Harris? Now, maybe David Stone, five-star recruit, who's a freshman at Oklahoma this year. Maybe he's that next guy. But as you heard yesterday, when we were talking with Eddie Rudosevich and George Stoya,

their offensive line is in a state of flux. This was going to be a transition year for their offensive line. So I'm not saying I expect Oklahoma to win the national title this year. I'm saying for Oklahoma to be as historically competitive as it has been, and Oklahoma is one of the few programs that is almost always good. Like Ohio State is always good. Oklahoma is probably the next most consistent program. They've had a few dips, like the late 90s, and that's pretty much it. So to be that, to continue to be that, Oklahoma must get better on the line of scrimmage. Must. Not an option. Because in the league they're going into, if they aren't, they will not be competitive in the league. You have to be competitive at the line

of scrimmage to win in the SEC. And the bonus part of that is if you're competitive in the SEC, you can compete for national titles. So that's really where they're at. Brent Venables, he'll get first crack at doing that. But I think Brent Venables has worked at Oklahoma long enough between the head coaching stint and the DC stint to understand that they will not accept mediocrity for very long. So you can't have these years where you have a transition year on the offensive line. Like you should just be ready to reload. That's what Georgia does. That's what Alabama does. That's what you've got to be able to do. If you want to be what Oklahoma has been historically, but be that in the SEC, you have to be able to do. If you want to be what Oklahoma has been historically, but be that in the SEC,

you have to be able to do that. OSU in the chat. Texas top three or top five in the SEC. According to FanDuel, Texas is a co-favorite to win the league. Georgia and Texas has the highest win total in the SEC at FanDuel, both of them with 10.5. So, again, if we're talking about right now, they're probably best positioned of the teams on this list other than Ohio State to do it this year. Two more on this list. Love this question.

Love this question love this question because it gets you thinking all right Penn State last national title 1986 remember they beat Miami in the Fiesta Bowl maybe you don't remember that maybe you weren't even born when that happened. Penn State has been in a weird place. From pretty much the entirety of the 14 playoff era, Penn State has been good enough to be close, not good enough to be in. The 12-team playoff will break that logjam. The 12-team playoff will get them into the playoff as long as they stay as consistent as they have been. But they still will have to prove they could beat a team like Ohio State or a team like Michigan.

And I'm talking about the Ohio State and Michigan teams of the last few years that Penn State has not been able to jump over. They still will have to prove they can beat teams like that. You're going to see a team like that probably right out of the gate in the 12-team playoff. And so you're going to have to beat multiple teams like that to see a team like that probably right out of the gate in the 12 team playoff.

And so you're going to have to beat multiple teams like that to win a national title. But that's where James Franklin is. Like they've lived on this plateau. And it's been good enough. Like you can't say he's doing a bad job. They're winning double digit games almost every year. But they want more. Well, now you can say the system's not holding us back. You've just got to win games within the system.

That is the hard part. So James Franklin's new, he has new coordinators. Andy Kotelnicki comes in from Kansas. You're hoping that his creativity, and if you watch that Kansas offense, it was super fun. You're hoping that unlocks something in Drew Aller. I would think Tom Allen replacing Manny Diaz, a defensive coordinator, probably going to be fairly equal. Manny was doing a great job. That's why he's the head coach at Duke now. Tom Allen is a very good defensive tactician. It didn't work out as a head coach at Indiana. That's a really hard job. Can Penn State beat these types of teams though? That is what we need to find out. The schedule this year should actually give us a little better

preview of that. It's not your old Penn State two-game schedule. They're going to have to work to get there. At West Virginia is not an easy place to start. West Virginia is going to be decent to pretty good again this year. They're at USC. They're at Wisconsin. They get Ohio State at home, Washington. This is not going to be an easy trek through the schedule, but it should have them prepared. So if they're sitting there at 10 and two at the end of the season to go into the playoff and be competitive, that's what they've got to be. One more. Tennessee. How many Tennessee people have as their online handle the phrase feels like 98? How many people use that phrase once a month? 1998 was the dial-up era can't be living in there gotta live in the now and Tennessee I think has improved enough to where the fans can live in the now but they want more obviously and unlike Nebraska where the fan base has sort of resigned itself that this is not going to happen again

Tennessee doesn't have to feel that way I think 2022 was a good example of why Tennessee fans should not resign themselves to anything. They can bring in enough talent to win and win big. They can be competitive in the SEC. They can compete for national titles. They have that capability. It's probably not going to be as frequently as, say, a Georgia or an Alabama, but that doesn't mean it can't happen quite a bit. So, Tennessee needs to win a national title. Gotta gotta gotta quit living in 1998. Now, look that 98 team was amazing. Al Wilson, Peerless Price, T. Martin.

That was a hell of a group. But they're all my age. We're old. Time to have a new set. So I think Tennessee can do that. I think Tennessee... I wondered, as Tennessee kind of wandered through the wilderness for a while, if that was ever going to be possible again. But 2022 convinced me, yeah, it is possible.

They definitely can upgrade and be one of those top tier SEC programs. Question is, can they get over the hump this year? Can they get over the hump next year? When does that actually happen? When are they in the playoff? I think it's realistic to expect them to compete for a playoff spot this year. Should they win the national title? I don't know if they're deep enough for that. Once you're in the playoff, you got a shot. I think Tennessee is one of those that we should be looking at as a potential playoff contender and as a team that can get back into that national title club.

Great question from Eric. Thank you so much for that one. Again, I may have a column on that coming out too, because that got the old juices flowing there. This one from Marvin. Are Deion Sanders' kids better recruiters than him. All right, let's, let's get into this. Cause I made, I made Colorado Twitter very mad last night. I guess it was two nights ago. We were passing around that Shiloh Sanders, Instagram story. Shiloh is, is Dion's son. He plays safety. And it basically said defensive transfers, DM me offensive transfers, DM Shur sanders who's the the quarterback who's also dion's son and i put up a joke about hey dion's putting his kids

to work the resume lines would be like starting safety and assistant player personnel director and that didn't sit well with the color fans. And they thought they got out. I was not the only one who said that, because everybody who follows this stuff says, okay, the way Colorado is building its rosters does not seem to portend sustainable success. They're not super aggressive recruiting high school players. They're not really getting a lot of impact players out of the portal.

They have a great core in Travis Hunter and Shador Sanders and Shiloh Sanders, but they've not been able to put the big guys around them that they need to. And so the Colorado folks thought they had us last night because Luther Burden, the excellent wide receiver at Missouri put out a tweet or maybe it was an Instagram story said transfers hit me up. And they're like, see, is Missouri also an unserious program? No, Missouri is not an unserious program because Eli Drinkwitz, the coach at Missouri, he does in-home visits with recruits.

He does school visits with recruits. He aggressively recruits high school players to try to build a foundation for his program. And maybe that's why they won 11 games last year. Like if Colorado wins 11 games, I will not make fun of the way Colorado recruits. I promise you that. I'll be like, nope, Deion's got it figured out. But Colorado's not going to win 11 games this year. Colorado is going to have a tough schedule in the Big 12. I realize some of you think that because they left the Pac-12 and Oregon and Washington are gone and all that, that it gets easier. It does not. The Big 12 doesn't have any really weak links. It used to be Kansas. It's definitely not Kansas anymore. Every game's going to be hard. So you can tell me that Colorado was close in most of

their games, that they got blown out by Oregon and Washington, but they were close in the other game. Okay, that's fine. But unless they're significantly better in the offensive and defensive lines, the results are going to be basically the same this year. So that's where I wonder about the recruiting. They don't have any commitments yet for the class of 2025. It feels like this is a situation where Dion has built a team for Shador and for Shiloh and for Travis Hunter. They're going to go to the NFL after this season. Then what happens?

It's not a matter of disliking Dion. I don't know how to break this to you guys. We're critical of all these head coaches. People are like, well, you didn't say this about Eli Drinkwits. The hell I didn't. I had a rant last year after Eli Drinkwits got extended following a six-win season where I'm like, who the hell's trying to steal your six-win coach? No. Everybody gets held to a pretty high standard standard it's hard to coach at this level you get criticized a lot the thing about Deion is he could be the best recruiter in the world

if he would just do the baseline things that all the other coaches do and I know what you're saying. He doesn't have to. No, he doesn't have to. But if he wanted to be the best recruiter in the world, he could. Because there are very few coaches who are getting a discount anymore. Like Nick Saban got a discount in the NIL world. Because if you go play for Nick Saban, there's a very good chance you're going to win a first rounder and a very good chance you're going to win a national title while you're playing. Well, Nick Saban is not coaching anymore. Kalen DeBoer does not get the same discount. Kirby Smart probably gets a bit of a discount still. He's got a nice track record. I think if you're a receiver going to Ohio State, there might be a discount there

because they've been able to put so many guys in the first round. Brian Hartline, maybe the best receivers coach in America. There are not a lot of discounts otherwise. Deion could actually get one because here's the thing. If you go play for Deion Sanders, his platform is so much bigger than every coach's and he will put you on that platform. And your chance of making money, of building a brand, skyrockets. He can sell that. And I think he does try to sell that. But if he sells that a little bit harder, they could conceivably get more high school

players that could build them a foundation to be a really good program. But that's not what they're trying to do. So it's not a dislike of Deion Sanders. I think he's entertaining as hell. I think he's been good for Colorado. I know some people are, well, if he leaves, where are they? Well, they've sold a, sorry, I almost cussed there. They've sold a lot of tickets. If he leaves, they're in a better place still. But the thing is, he has the capability to be a very, very special coach. He's got to choose to want to do that, though. So that's really all it is. The potential's there, but I'm not sure that he wants to do that. As far as are Shiloh and Shador better recruiters, I'm sure Shiloh and

Shador are amazing recruiters. And there's nothing wrong with your players recruiting. Every good program has its players recruit, just like Luther Burton recruiting for Missouri. You want your best players to be your out front guys. When you bring in people on visits, you put them with your best players if you really want them. But there is a way that this has been done for years. And you can say that, well, Dion's doing it differently. He's playing four-dimensional chess. He's not playing four-dimensional chess. The way it's been done for years has been done for years because it works.

Like what Alabama and Georgia and Ohio State do, it works. There's a reason they keep doing it. Even though the system has changed, even though NIL exists now, even though the transfer portal can allow you to get more experienced players to come in. There's a reason they keep going after the best players in high school and making sure they get them. Because it works. So we'll see what happens with Dion. But if this is the roster building strategy, I don't know that it's going to be successful long-term. I don't know that it's going to be successful this season. Also, I had a tweet from Rick George, the Colorado AD.

So this is after Alton McCaskill announces that he's going to go in the portal. Alton McCaskill is a running back that Colorado got last year from Houston. And Alton McCaskill was really good as a freshman at Houston in 2021, missed the entire 2022 season due to injury. He redshirted at Colorado last year, played in four games and then redshirted. And then he's leaving. Now, I don't get the sense that of the guys that Colorado has lost in the portal, and I believe the number is 11 right now in the spring window. And remember, they're still

practicing. They're still doing spring practice until the 27th. I don't get the sense that these are guys that they were expecting to be giant contributors to this team. But Rick George did chime in on a tweet from a Colorado fan saying that the Colorado fan said the portal window has been brutal. Rick George, the AD says, thank the attorney generals that filed the temporary restraining order. Okay. I question that one because your coach's roster building strategy has been churned through the portal. So, you think you would have wanted that to happen. You think you'd be fine with players being able to transfer as many times as you want. Also, let's let's discuss how accountability works here

for Rick George. So, Rick George would like you to blame the attorneys general who brought the lawsuit that pointed out that holding non-employees to non-compete clauses might violate the Sherman Act. That competitors colluding to make a rule that holds non-employees to non-compete clauses would violate the Sherman Act. It's not the attorneys generals, is that how you say it? I think that's how you say it, fault that you were breaking the law. Like the schools were the ones breaking the law, not the attorney generals. They weren't breaking the law. They simply pointed out that you were breaking the law. So look inward, Rick George. Blame yourself and your fellow athletic directors and fellow school presidents because you were the ones operating the horizontal price

fixing scheme. Now you have to fix it. But it is interesting hearing this because like I said, I didn't get the impression that Colorado was all that broken up about who they've lost in the transfer portal this spring because the churn seems to be the feature and not the bug in Deion Sanders roster building strategy. So what, what is, what is the issue here? And I think I thought back to a conversation I had with Lane Kiffin before spring practice, and I think this may be it. So Lane Kiffin admits that part of the reason why he was so aggressive in the transfer portal early on. And especially with guys who had three or four years of eligibility remaining when they got to Ole Miss was once they transferred, as long as they were undergrads, they couldn't transfer again and play immediately. They would have had to sit out a year. Well, that injunction we talked about that happened in the federal court in December in West Virginia, that eliminated that as a year. Well, that injunction we talked about that happened in the federal court in December

in West Virginia, that eliminated that as a strategy. You couldn't keep those guys. It was a way to force development on them, essentially. Because just like you used to be able to keep the guys you signed out of high school because they would have to sit a year if they left, suddenly the guys you took after their first transfer would have had to sit a year after they left and kiffin was like well we're just gonna have to adjust that's they changed the rules gonna have to adjust to that and you haven't seen ole miss lose a lot of those guys colorado's gonna have to adjust to that because if that was a strategy and it wasn't a bad strategy as as Lane Kiffin has demonstrated they're going to

have to adjust to that but yeah don't blame don't blame the AGs you were breaking the law they were only pointing out that you were breaking the law now you get to deal with that all right next question from Crawford and this is a really interesting one that we're probably going to have a lot more debate about as we get into the season. Hi, Andy. Why do you think, why do you think will be more important to the college football playoff committee, total number of wins or strength of schedule? Now, ideally the answer is both, but the question is which weighs more strength of schedule, total number wins. I think you could argue that this is what happened to Florida state last year, but I

don't know that, you know, you look at Florida state versus Alabama. They might've both had, well, Alabama's best win was against Georgia. They both beat LSU. So the strength of schedule was not that different. You had the quarterback situation as well. But I think as you get into this particular set of circumstances, especially because the SEC and the Big Ten have added more good teams, I do think strength of schedule should matter more. I think strength of schedule should be very important in terms of seeding and in terms of who makes it. And it'll be

interesting to see, does the committee get out of the line of thinking of you have to be undefeated, you have to have one loss, and that all one loss teams are equal. All undefeated teams are equal. I would argue that the committee going back to 2014 when the playoffs started has been pretty critical on that front. That they've had teams that were undefeated that they did not feel were worthy. They've had teams that were one loss that they didn't feel were as good as teams that had two losses i think the general public needs to adjust the thinking because they're going to be three loss scc teams that are every bit as good as one loss acc teams but is that going to make anybody happy? No, because if you point that out, it just makes people really mad. But yes, the strength of schedule piece matters because what are we looking at really at the end of the day is who can compete in this tournament with the best teams in the

country? Who has the best chance of winning games in this tournament? That should be the focus of these teams, which has the best chance of actually winning games in this tournament. That should be your guiding principle. It goes back to with a 14 playoff, my patented plan for figuring out who should be at number four. When you have a question between number four and number five, like in in that situation you would kidnap the coach of the number one team you would dose him with truce room and you'd say who do you most want to play and whoever he says you pick the other team because it doesn't record doesn't matter is it can you win this thing or not? So, oh, I shouldn't say record doesn't matter. It matters. But if it's one game in the loss column difference, then yes, you should take a very critical

look at the schedules because the team that has one more loss might be much more equipped to win games in the tournament than the team that has one fewer loss might be much more equipped to win games in the tournament than the team that has one fewer loss. So I hope that that weighs quite a bit in the new playoff format. I don't know. I don't know how it's going to work. I know everybody's going to be completely mad about how it all works out, who they pick, but at least we're going to be mad about who's number 11 and who's number 12. Cause I think, well, we'll see. We'll see if the highest ranked group of five team is actually in the top 12. Cause if they're not, then the distinction between 11 and 12 is where the at large spots end. The distinction between four and five is where do you play in the first round? Do you

have a buy? That's where that begins and ends. Now, the difference between that is you have to win a conference championship. So that's a little bit more clear cut. Objective criteria tend to make people less mad. But then the cut line between eight and nine, do you have a home game, are you on the road? That one is going to make people mad. But again, they design these as features, not bugs. They want you to debate this. They want you to get mad about this.

I hope strength of schedule is a serious component of this. I think it will be, but again, we've got to wait and see. Next question from James. In the Wild West era, are scholarship limits still a thing? What's to prevent a school from signing 100 walk-ons to NIL deals big enough to pay their own freight? Nothing. Absolutely nothing, James. Except there are only 11 spots on the field, and you typically have to play if you'd like it to make it to the NFL.

So. That is probably the most important factor keeping this from happening. Everybody warned against this and everybody who warned against this probably failed economics in high school. Because resources aren't unlimited. Money's not unlimited. You have to decide how you want to use your money. If you're using your money to pay for 100 walk-ons or to boost your roster to 100 scholarship players, quote unquote, with 15 more walk-ons, then you're not using that money to retain your best players. Those best players are more important than the guy occupying roster spot number 96. And I say this as someone who used to occupy roster spot number 135.

You're not that important. The guy who occupies roster spot number three is way more important. He's where you spend the money. And the fact of the matter is, we're seeing this play out in the transfer portal in the spring. Who's entering the transfer portal? Guys who aren't really going to play at the schools they're at. They want to go find a place to play. So the problem with your plan is the guy who would be roster spot number 90 at a massive contender program could start at some power conference programs, could definitely start in a group of five, and could make money that way, would have a scholarship and could make NIL money. Not as much as if they were roster spot number three

at the big power program, but they're not roster spot number three, they're roster spot number 90. So it's just simple economic decisions that are being made in mass. And that's why it's really inefficient to do it that way. And like I said earlier, markets crave efficiency. They flow toward efficiency. That would be incredibly inefficient. Next question from Dre. We know a lot of the old rules have been deemed unconstitutional by the courts, particularly regarding players' rights. But what

about NCAA rules regarding competition between programs? I am specifically thinking about tampering and contact with players that are on other rosters. We hear a lot of stories, even the occasional firsthand account, but nothing in the way of enforcement. Are these rules also not enforceable or does no aggrieved coach want to pursue a claim out of a sense of mutually assured destruction? I think your second question is probably the best question, Dre. I go back to what my friend Max Olson at The Athletic often says, college coaches don't want to enforce the tampering rules because they would like to

reserve the right to tamper. I've heard a lot of these stories. And I will say this, you have to be incredibly stupid to get caught tampering. There's so many ways to tamper in ways that the NCAA would not be able to get you. All you've got to do, let's say it's a quarterback. You go through the quarterback trainer, you go through the high school coach. All of that can be done verbally over the phone. Doesn't even have to be done in writing. You don't have to send any text messages. You could send text messages, but on an app where the text message explodes after 24 hours and nobody can find it. There's so many ways to do it without getting caught.

That's one problem. I will say though, there are people who are stupid enough to get caught. There's an example. Back before the transfer rules changed, when you actually had to sit out a year after your first transfer, I talked to somebody at a school and they said, we've got text messages from this other school from assistant coaches. Like not low level recruiting staffers, not going through the high school coach, like from assistant coaches saying, you know, you could come here next year to a player. Like that's incredibly stupid. And they could have been caught. And I said, well, why didn't you turn them in? And the person's like, eh, what if we want to do that? And that's really all it is, is you don't want to potentially miss out on the next guy that you might need because you narked out somebody from another

school. So yeah, they could enforce these rules if someone's stupid enough to break them that blatantly. And sometimes they are stupid enough to do that. But I still think the ability to tamper, the having tampering open to you as an option probably outweighs you getting that other guy. But that's why in general. It can be enforced. There are people who could get caught. But right now, there's not a lot of motivation for coaches to turn in other coaches about this.

All right. We got one from Matt and I'm going to tell you right now, Matt received $0 for this. And I, I'm sorry, Matt, I feel bad. I really do. Cause somebody got lots more money than you for this. But I knew when I got this email and I saw that there was an Excel spreadsheet at the bottom that this was going to be fun. So here's what Matt said. I fixed college football last year, but I don't think anyone can handle it, Andy. My main goal was to try to place teams in conferences that make sense geographically and culturally. It's why Kansas and Missouri are in the Big Ten and why Texas and Texas A&M, who culturally think they're better than everyone,

are independents, but also bring back rivalries like Penn State and Pitt. I also tried to elevate some group of five teams that are deserving like UAB or Tulane or geographically advantageous like Memphis. And the rules are just as important as the realignment. What do you think? So you open the spreadsheet and what you've got are 10 conferences of six teams with seven independents, some of whom don't actually want to be independence but i i do like these these

divisions which are essentially i guess it's five conferences with two divisions each but and i i do appreciate this like you go back to the old sec east florida georgia kentucky south korea tennessee vanderbilt the old sec west alabama arkansas auburn lsu State, Ole Miss. Your Big 12 North is Colorado, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Texas Tech. Almost all Big 8. You got one former Southwest Conference school in there. Your Big 12 South, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, SMU, TCU, Tulane. Now, not having Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the same division doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but I'm qu know, I'm quibbling here. You've got a PAC 12 again. We've brought that back to life. And yes, you've, you have forced Stanford, Texas and Texas A&M into independence

for reasons I'm unclear on, except you say they think they're culturally better than everyone else. I don't necessarily buy that. I think, you know, know these these have always been programs that have have yearned to be in a conference all right here are the rules that matt has laid down every conference has a cable network for third tier games in partnership with espn fox cbs or nbc all money from all media rights for all sports including playoff bowls and nc basketball tournament is pooled and shared equally all right this, this is very NFL model of review. No games are ever on streaming-only applications, Matt. I don't think that's going to, listen, you're limiting your revenue here.

What if suddenly Netflix decides they want to put games on? You're not going to sell games to Netflix? Amazon Prime, what if Prime Video wants games? You're not going to sell them to Amazon? Come on. You're out of conference games. No more than two games versus the group of four. One group of four and one NFCS.

At least two out of conference games must be against your power conference or independent teams. I like that. There's like a tournament for independents that he's got. And again, Texas and Texas A&M are independents against their will, which I truly enjoy. Matt, I don't think it's going to work. I do appreciate the effort. I'm sincerely sorry that I can't pay you $427,000 for this, like someone probably paid some consultant for that pitch deck that we saw earlier this week for the super league that got proposed that was dead on arrival. I'm sorry about

that because I think you probably put in the same amount of work and you probably put in more thought. So I am again, very sorry that I can't give you $427,000 for this. All right. One more. This one's from Arthur. It's a long question, but it's a good question. Andy, it's always interesting to hear how insistent you are that college football fans either love or like or don't mind all the major changes that have gone on the sport over the past few years simply because, quote unquote, they're still watching, i.e. ratings, however you want to

measure them, are either holding steady or going up. And I guess that's the easiest way to measure something like fan engagement in general, but to me, it doesn't tell the full story. I'll give you my personal perspective. I'm a 46-year-old Georgia grad and fan, Athens native, season ticket holder since I graduated from UGA, and my family has always had tickets since before I was born. I've been to hundreds of Georgia games, watch every game and I can attend on TV and have always been a massive fan. I'm on a Georgia message board a lot, though no other social media and listen to your podcast and some from the athletic guys, Ari, David Oven, et cetera. Fine, fine people all. So I have a general knowledge of the national landscape of the sport. In general, I'd like to

say you would classify me as a very engaged college football fan, but I'll be honest. I can't recall being less interested or excited about Georgia football or college football in general than I am right now. I rarely watch many games other than Georgia games outside of massive matchups and playoff games. I quit following recruiting several years ago, care even less about it now since at least half of any given signing class, even for a recruiting juggernaut like Georgia, will never set foot on the field for the team that signs them. I don't mind players getting paid or having some ability to transfer in concept,

but the way it's operating at the moment is a joke. Very few players are actually getting compensated for their name, image, and likeness. It's just pay for play. And they're holding schools, and in truth, they're fans through collectives, since schools can't pay NIL money hostage with the ability to bolt for greener pastures

at the drop of a hat seemingly as many times as they want. It's a ridiculous unprecedented system. Imagine if in the NFL, players had no contracts with the teams they played for and the fans were forced to pay their salaries since the teams weren't allowed to

despite the teams themselves being richer than they've ever been through their TV deals. A player could play for the Giants one year and the Jags the next year and the Broncos the next year with the teams having no way to stop them or receiving any compensation when they leave. Like I said, ridiculous and completely untenable.

But that's where we are now in college football. Look, the football program I love is in as good a place as it's been in my lifetime, with two national titles in the past three seasons and the unquestioned best coach and program leader in the sport at its head. I should be so excited about my team and the sport overall that I can barely contain myself. And yet, like I said, I've never felt less engaged or interested. And despite what you're saying that the ratings tell you, I highly doubt I'm alone. And unless college football makes a major course correction over the next few years, I see my interest fading even further.

Yes, I'll still go and watch Georgia games, watch some other big games too, but I won't do it with nearly the same fervor or excitement that I once did. And I don't see that being good for the long-term health. I'm sorry. I don't see that being good for the long-term health of the sport at all. Because like I said, I can't be alone here. That is a great email from Arthur in Atlanta. It's 627 words. And as I wrote back to Arthur, when you write me a 627 word email about how uninterested in college football you are and how disengaged with college football you are. I have to call BS because you're clearly engaged. You're writing to the college football podcast host who you listen to regularly about how you pay money to the University of Georgia for tickets to games.

Over and over again every year. Now I did email Arthur back and he did write another really thoughtful email back. And I will say maybe my perception that his 627 word email constitutes engagement. Arthur's ghost might be a prolific emailer. I'll just say that. He's a very good email. So maybe that doesn't prove engagement, but giving your money to Georgia does. So if you want change, continuing to give people thousands of dollars every year does not suggest you actually do. People vote with their wallets. People vote with their eyeballs. Your wallet is buying a place for your eyeballs to be every Saturday. So again, you can tell me you're not interested, but your behavior suggests you are.

So when I keep going back to the ratings and saying, the ratings are telling us you're lying to us when you say that this is destroying the sport. We know that. Your behavior tells us what you're doing, not what you're saying. Now, I agree with Arthur on a couple of things. He's right that the system that is in place now is untenable, unsustainable. The double charging of the fans to pay for the players

is not going to keep happening. It can't. It won't work long-term. Because the fans are going to get sick of it. And they will ultimately vote with their wallets. They will either decide, I'm not paying for the players anymore, I'm not paying for tickets, anymore. I'm not paying for

tickets or both. He's right about that. But that system is changing. It doesn't have a choice but to change. Because they can either continue to operate like this with no rules whatsoever, because that's the only way they can keep from getting sued. Or they can create a system where they collectively bargain the rules with the players, which would allow them to collectively bargain other things like contracts, like player movement rules. And then you don't have this anymore. You don't have the fans being double charged. You don't have players being able to hold the program hostage and renegotiate every five minutes.

That's going to change. That's going to change within the next few years. The unpleasant part of that is going to be how it consolidates at the top and how many teams might get left behind from the top level. But that will change. So if that's the part you don't like, good news, it won't be there forever. But if you keep telling me you're not interested, but you keep paying for tickets, I'm not going to believe you. Again, your behavior tells me more than what you say.

So good luck to Arthur. I hope he can manage to get excited about this Georgia season where they're going to play Ole Miss and play at Texas and have generally one of the most interesting schedules they've ever had. And I sure hope he enjoys next season when all those tough games on the road, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas, come to Athens. But maybe he won't be interested by then.

We'll see if he's voting with his wallet at that point. But my guess, he'll buy those tickets. It's what you do. It's not what you say. Guys, love these questions. Thank you so much for the questions. Thank you, Arthur, for that great question and for the follow-up to it. I like it when you guys can make me think and really make me dig deep into this stuff. So Thursday's pretty much my favorite day of the week. Love these days. So thank you so much for the questions.

Keep them coming throughout the week. I love to hear from you. We got a little NFL draft conversation coming up on Thursday or on Friday. We got more transfer portal. I'm curious. We got spring games coming up. How much will certain spring practices ending this week affect action in the transfer portal next week?

Does it? Or have we already seen a lot of the action we're going to see? We're going to find out. We'll talk to you tomorrow.